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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LAB might be edging up in all recent polls – but punters st
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LAB might be edging up in all recent polls – but punters staying solidly with CON taking most seats
There seems to be some pretty heavy money about on the Tories in the general election betting resulting in the blues being favourite to win most seats.
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@MarqueeMark
Ed's opponents have opened up an opportunity to have Cameron's fathers will and estate held to scrutiny.
As a man who made his fortune creating tax limiting schemes offshore (including one in Switzerland at the time of the present leaks) it may prove illuminating as a comparison.
The majority of the Cameron families fortune is based on tax avoidance, not just a possible one off variation.
Bill is a father of two, earns £40,000pa. He bikes to work on a racer he purchased through the government's own cycle-to-work scheme, in which is he able to pay for the bike from his gross salary rather than his take-home-pay. He uses childcare vouchers to reduce the burden of paying for his older daughter's after school club and his two-year-old son's day care. Other than these salary sacrifices, he pays normal income tax to HMRC at the basic rate.
Bob is a multinational oligarch who shelters much of his annual profits in offshore tax havens, thus reducing his tax obligations to HMRC by £17m a year.
Bill learns of Bob's circumstances and thinks he is unreasonably avoiding paying his way. Is he a hypocrite?
(a) Labour gaining support from LD's disproportionately where it won't help
(b) Con losing support to UKIP disproportionately where it won't matter
http://www.ncpolitics.uk/2015/02/uniform-swing-can-misleading-even-within-england.html/
The Con-Lab swing we see in the headline figures is hardly any actual Con-Lab switching at all.
Cameron's DEAD father?
Jesus, you Lefties are REALLY rattled by how this is heading for your guy aren't you?
Or you could say buy government, sell opposition.
I think the tories were streets ahead until the very, very end, weren;t they? It was only the exit poll that showed us they underperformed the polls
Also saw Diane James. Why is she not the leader of UKIP? They should certainly get her out front as often as possible. She makes them sound rational, an incredible achievement.
You mean that Ralph is still alive? Or do you mean no one should look into Ian Cameron's affairs and the arrangements made in his will?
But I fear you're so lost to the tribe that it's not really worth it.
The Labour candidate and former DPP Keir Starmer has admitted that Ed Miliband’s financial arrangements were “intended to reduce tax”, raising questions about the Labour’s leader decision to attack tax “avoiders”.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ed-miliband/11410824/Ed-Miliband-intended-to-reduce-tax-admits-Keir-Starmer.html
Bill says "Good luck to you Bob - you have done well for yourself !"
For once, I agree with Nigel:
Nigel Farage also joined the debate, saying that Mr Miliband would "regret" raising the issue.
That's not the price range of commuter bikes.
You might simplify it further and say anyone who buys 200 Marlboro Lights when routing through Abu Dhabi is also a tax avoider and therefore is in no position to criticise the likes of Fink.
And in what way is this not tax avoidance but Lord Fink putting assets in a trust for his children is?
ah tim...
God, Bill sounds a crushing bore... I reckon he calls himself Bill when he tries to fit in down the pub, Wills in the Quinoa and flaxseed shop, Billy when he is pretending to like football, Willie when he is in Scotland, and William when trying to get his kids into a fee paying school
Ed is Labour.
Fink is Tory.
Miracles do happen - right here on PB.
He's Bill or Billy or Mac or Buddy
And he's plain ugly to me
And I wonder if he's ever had a day of fun in his whole life
Are you accusing Lord F of engaging in Tax Avoidance in the sense of deliberately exploiting loopholes rather than simple Tax Planning (as Bill is doing in your example, and by extension Ed with DoV etc)..?
If you are accusing him of this can you provide details of why/how? As far as I can see his arrangements were well within what HMRC has allowed for, i.e. simple Tax Planning/Efficiency.
You're making a lot of noise over the last few threads about how Tories don't get it and so on, but as far as I can see you are conflating (either deliberately or otherwise) the 2 and then crying foul when the same is done in reverse.
Duh.
In any case, however, on projections, if Labour + SNP/Plaid is a majority there is NO OTHER possible majority other than a Grand Coalition.
The difference is, and this is where Fink does have a point, is that in a complicated tax system, everyone has a right to minimize their tax.
It's when vast sums of money are manipulated by individuals and companies for the sole purposes of reducing to absurd levels, or completely avoiding tax that the public sees a difference.
This may be green eyed envy, but deal with it, it is there.
This may have been mentioned occasionally on the previous thread.
Yes. Reflect on the answer, and move along...
The one caveat here is that the betting markets appear to be rather skewed towards the tories. That's great if you're placing value bets now and waiting until may 8th to collect - less good if you're wanting to trade in & out of positions during the campaign.
It's just something to consider - the market may not *rationalise* any time soon.
Remember - the Romney/Intrade price was wildly optimistic all the way through the campaign, despite all the evidence to the contrary. The market never did readjust.
Joe's wife has small feet. She needs some gym kit so buys her zero-rated girls' trainers to avoid the VAT on a similar adult version. Joe earns £18,000 as a warehouseman.
Sam sells gold around the world, sheltering his profits in tax havens to avoid up to £30m a year in taxes to HMRC.
Joe reads about Sam's tax avoidance in the newspaper and reckons he should do more to pay his way. Is he a hypocrite?
Does this change the sympathies ?
Con 15 Lab 30 LD 35 UKIP 8 Grn 9
Perhaps not buy, but paying?
'And Bob on the internet.'
Bob Somebody on the internet..
In a worst case scenario a 25 hour a week working on £10k per annum would end up paying £720 for the £1k bike.
But the main point I was making is that the Tax Incentive is completely and totally detached from the Claimed Benefit. To commute to work, it is perfectly adequate to get a very decent bike for under £100 on Gumtree. When I started cycle commuting back in 2004, the new bike I got was perfectly fine and well under £200 and was still in good nick after 6 years of well over 2500km a year.
So the Tax Incentive is unnecessary. Far better would be forcing firms to get rid of dress codes or to provide changing facilities, require secure lock up areas on premises and spend a lot more in terms of road provision for cyclists.
As a few of us have been saying, the next PM markets [NB compare both "PM after GE" and "PM after Cameron" on betfair] seem to offer more value - and combining them with a bet on Tories Most Seats may well get you a free [but not risk-free!] middle of quite a few plausible outcomes (where the Tories lead by 0-15 seats or so).
Steve is a Software Engineer at a large-ish company. He Has contributes to a pension scheme, has slary sacrifice benefits for sports equipment and a ISA that he seeks to maximise each year.
Phil is a freelance Software Engineer working under a Ltd Co. He pays himself a small salary and dividends. In his last Self Assessment he worked out that he owed nothing for the year. (edit) for argument's sake HMRC have reviewed and decided that Phil is not within IR35.
Steve finds out about Phil's arrangements and thinks he should contribute more. Is he a hypocrite?
Most likely this was a family decision and all members of the family were well aware of what they were doing and why.
I would do the same in their circumstances but then I wouldn't pretend to be outraged when other people take legitimate steps to avoid a tax charge. I think it's called hypocrisy.
'The Labour candidate and former DPP Keir Starmer has admitted that Ed Miliband’s financial arrangements were “intended to reduce tax”, raising questions about the Labour’s leader decision to attack tax “avoiders”.'
Just sick of the hypocrisy and bullshit..
For me to be serious, the elephant in the room is what happens to the money of the well off v the poor. The latter have to spend most of their cash to make ends meet. I remember it well when i was younger. now I'm better off and, guess what - I don't spend half of my income each moth and I have a largeish savings pot in the bank. All of the rest I spend. My savings are in banks earning very little interest but much of that money is being used to invest in business, jobs and helping others to make a living. The richer one is the greater the amount that goes into wealth creation. I know left-wingers don't like it but that's the basic truth of it. Oh and don't let's forget that those who pay by far the most for schools, NHS...... are the better off. P*ss us off too much and we make sure our money stays out of the UK. You can get €1.35 for a £ today - compared to €1.05 in 2009. Like to guess what will happen if EdM is PM?
Her name is Lola, she was a showgirl,
But that was 30 years ago, when they used to have a show
Now it's a disco, but not for Lola,
Still in dress she used to wear,
Faded feathers in her hair
She sits there so refined,and drinks herself half-blind
She lost her youth and she lost her Tony
Now she's lost her mind
Clearly now benefiting from the Winter Fuel Allowance and free Bus travel (given to her by Tony), but would benefit from greater provision of social care.
The personalisation of stuff on here is creepy.
I'm green on a fair few other outcomes and the above isn't ultra pluaisble but it'd be nice.
(Thinking this over maybe she really was and the other less than subtle hints over the years have passed me by. Hmm...)
Closest is all three at 6/4 but still negative value
Clegg and Farage 9/2 one of the worst bets of all time
Who will be an MP post 2015 GE - Salmond, Clegg & Farage
All 3 6/4
Farage and Salmond 3/1
Farage only 25/1
Clegg and Salmond 3/1
Clegg and Farage 9/2
Salmond only 8/1
Clegg only 25/1
None 50
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/which-of-clegg-farage-and-salmond-will-be-mps-after-the-election
WTF think Joes's wife, Bob and everyone else.
So Labour need to gain around 22/23 seats that they currently aren't expected to - at the top end of that range you are looking at seats like Rossendale & Darwen, Calder Valley and Somerset North East.
They are 15/8 for each of these, suggesting that the 3.0 on betfair is approximately right.
Georgie Boy was gay I guess, nothing more and nothing less.. the kindest guy I ever knew
If Arnold gave Georgie some clothes he collected, who pays the bill when they are taken to the dry cleaners?
Ed decides he's a tax dodger anyway, and smears his character in the media.
If the rich don't like the tax arrangements in the UK, they will leave therefore they should be allowed to pay what they wish in tax?
Some might think, "If your money means more to you than your country or fellow citizens, then you leaving might not be such a bad idea"