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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LAB might be edging up in all recent polls – but punters st

SystemSystem Posts: 12,215
edited February 2015 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LAB might be edging up in all recent polls – but punters staying solidly with CON taking most seats

There seems to be some pretty heavy money about on the Tories in the general election betting resulting in the blues being favourite to win most seats.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    tsrif..
  • Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019
    Fra fra
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    FPT.

    @MarqueeMark
    Ed's opponents have opened up an opportunity to have Cameron's fathers will and estate held to scrutiny.
    As a man who made his fortune creating tax limiting schemes offshore (including one in Switzerland at the time of the present leaks) it may prove illuminating as a comparison.
    The majority of the Cameron families fortune is based on tax avoidance, not just a possible one off variation.
  • Today's PB TORY QUIZ

    Bill is a father of two, earns £40,000pa. He bikes to work on a racer he purchased through the government's own cycle-to-work scheme, in which is he able to pay for the bike from his gross salary rather than his take-home-pay. He uses childcare vouchers to reduce the burden of paying for his older daughter's after school club and his two-year-old son's day care. Other than these salary sacrifices, he pays normal income tax to HMRC at the basic rate.

    Bob is a multinational oligarch who shelters much of his annual profits in offshore tax havens, thus reducing his tax obligations to HMRC by £17m a year.

    Bill learns of Bob's circumstances and thinks he is unreasonably avoiding paying his way. Is he a hypocrite?
  • This is an absolute no-brainer of a bet. It may or may not win, but the value in it screams out for the reasons that our host gives. Laying David Cameron for Prime Minister after the election (or, my second choice, backing Ed Miliband) is even better because it may still win even if the Conservatives get most seats.
  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795
    Buy Labour, sell Tory. Same as in 2010.

  • KingaKinga Posts: 59
    Clearly Tory backers are finding a rather odd way of throwing away all that cash they are saving through 'Vanilla' tax avoidance. At least some of it will go to the taxman.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    antifrank said:

    This is an absolute no-brainer of a bet. It may or may not win, but the value in it screams out for the reasons that our host gives. Laying David Cameron for Prime Minister after the election (or, my second choice, backing Ed Miliband) is even better because it may still win even if the Conservatives get most seats.

    Betfair are offering a Most Seats England market. I'm trying to work out what a good Labour odds on that would be.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,514
    edited February 2015
    I see the BBC is distinctly uninterested in certain stories today. There's a shock. I bet if the it had been the other way around they would be foaming at the mouth.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited February 2015
    I don't really understand Mike's point here. If you believe the polling as at today is a close predictor of the result, Con Most Seats is surely more likely than Lab Most Seats, once you've allowed for the 40+ seats Labour will lose, on current polling, in Scotland.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Hmmm, a 53 seat Swing
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    edited February 2015
    Mike, the 11.4% figure has been repeatedly challenged - on the grounds of (inter alia):

    (a) Labour gaining support from LD's disproportionately where it won't help

    (b) Con losing support to UKIP disproportionately where it won't matter

    http://www.ncpolitics.uk/2015/02/uniform-swing-can-misleading-even-within-england.html/

    The Con-Lab swing we see in the headline figures is hardly any actual Con-Lab switching at all.
  • I see the BBC is distinctly uninterested in certain stories today. There's a shock. I bet if the it had been the other way around they would be foaming at the mouth.

    It's a left liberal media conspiracy.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262

    Today's PB TORY QUIZ

    Bill is a father of two, earns £40,000pa. He bikes to work on a racer he purchased through the government's own cycle-to-work scheme, in which is he able to pay for the bike from his gross salary rather than his take-home-pay. He uses childcare vouchers to reduce the burden of paying for his older daughter's after school club and his two-year-old son's day care. Other than these salary sacrifices, he pays normal income tax to HMRC at the basic rate.

    Bob is a multinational oligarch who shelters much of his annual profits in offshore tax havens, thus reducing his tax obligations to HMRC by £17m a year.

    Bill learns of Bob's circumstances and thinks he is unreasonably avoiding paying his way. Is he a hypocrite?

    For a bit of fun add 'Bill is a Tory voter', and 'Bob a Labour supporter, who has made substantial donations to the party', and lets see the responses.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    Today's PB TORY QUIZ

    Bill is a father of two, earns £40,000pa. He bikes to work on a racer he purchased through the government's own cycle-to-work scheme, in which is he able to pay for the bike from his gross salary rather than his take-home-pay. He uses childcare vouchers to reduce the burden of paying for his older daughter's after school club and his two-year-old son's day care. Other than these salary sacrifices, he pays normal income tax to HMRC at the basic rate.

    Bob is a multinational oligarch who shelters much of his annual profits in offshore tax havens, thus reducing his tax obligations to HMRC by £17m a year.

    Bill learns of Bob's circumstances and thinks he is unreasonably avoiding paying his way. Is he a hypocrite?

    Couldn't care less but Bill sounds a right prick
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Mike, the 11.4% figure has been repeatedly challenged - on the grounds of (inter alia):

    (a) Labour gaining support from LD's disproportionately where it won't help

    (b) Con losing support to UKIP disproportionately where it won't matter

    http://www.ncpolitics.uk/2015/02/uniform-swing-can-misleading-even-within-england.html/

    The Con-Lab swing we see in the headline figures is hardly any actual Con-Lab switching at all.

    But apparently some bloke did some constituency polls 9 months ago that Mike uses like a drunk uses a lamppost: for support, but not illumination
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699

    Mike, the 11.4% figure has been repeatedly challenged - on the grounds of (inter alia):

    (a) Labour gaining support from LD's disproportionately where it won't help

    (b) Con losing support to UKIP disproportionately where it won't matter

    http://www.ncpolitics.uk/2015/02/uniform-swing-can-misleading-even-within-england.html/

    The Con-Lab swing we see in the headline figures is hardly any actual Con-Lab switching at all.

    a and b either or both may be correct but it is more likely that they are both simple wishful thinking
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937
    Smarmeron said:

    FPT.

    @MarqueeMark
    Ed's opponents have opened up an opportunity to have Cameron's fathers will and estate held to scrutiny.
    As a man who made his fortune creating tax limiting schemes offshore (including one in Switzerland at the time of the present leaks) it may prove illuminating as a comparison.
    The majority of the Cameron families fortune is based on tax avoidance, not just a possible one off variation.

    Cameron's father?

    Cameron's DEAD father?

    Jesus, you Lefties are REALLY rattled by how this is heading for your guy aren't you?
  • isam said:

    Today's PB TORY QUIZ

    Bill is a father of two, earns £40,000pa. He bikes to work on a racer he purchased through the government's own cycle-to-work scheme, in which is he able to pay for the bike from his gross salary rather than his take-home-pay. He uses childcare vouchers to reduce the burden of paying for his older daughter's after school club and his two-year-old son's day care. Other than these salary sacrifices, he pays normal income tax to HMRC at the basic rate.

    Bob is a multinational oligarch who shelters much of his annual profits in offshore tax havens, thus reducing his tax obligations to HMRC by £17m a year.

    Bill learns of Bob's circumstances and thinks he is unreasonably avoiding paying his way. Is he a hypocrite?

    Couldn't care less but Bill sounds a right prick
    That's a bit harsh. Bill has only just got over the trauma that higher rate taxpayers no longer get child benefit.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    edited February 2015
    Buy Labour, sell Tory. Same as in 2010.

    Or you could say buy government, sell opposition.

    I think the tories were streets ahead until the very, very end, weren;t they? It was only the exit poll that showed us they underperformed the polls
  • Smarmeron said:

    FPT.

    @MarqueeMark
    Ed's opponents have opened up an opportunity to have Cameron's fathers will and estate held to scrutiny.
    As a man who made his fortune creating tax limiting schemes offshore (including one in Switzerland at the time of the present leaks) it may prove illuminating as a comparison.
    The majority of the Cameron families fortune is based on tax avoidance, not just a possible one off variation.

    Cameron's father?

    Cameron's DEAD father?

    Jesus, you Lefties are REALLY rattled by how this is heading for your guy aren't you?
    In a purely technical sense, Miliband's father is also dead.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,020
    Caught a bit of the daily politics with lunch today. Apparently the same person who put that huge bet on No has put another huge bet on a hung Parliament. Should make the odds on a Labour majority even better.

    Also saw Diane James. Why is she not the leader of UKIP? They should certainly get her out front as often as possible. She makes them sound rational, an incredible achievement.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    The cycle to work scheme is probably the most ridiculous middle class subsidy one could imagine. Whoever came up with it must be such a joy at dinner parties...
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @MarqueeMark
    You mean that Ralph is still alive? Or do you mean no one should look into Ian Cameron's affairs and the arrangements made in his will?
  • BenMBenM Posts: 1,795

    Smarmeron said:

    FPT.

    @MarqueeMark
    Ed's opponents have opened up an opportunity to have Cameron's fathers will and estate held to scrutiny.
    As a man who made his fortune creating tax limiting schemes offshore (including one in Switzerland at the time of the present leaks) it may prove illuminating as a comparison.
    The majority of the Cameron families fortune is based on tax avoidance, not just a possible one off variation.

    Cameron's father?

    Cameron's DEAD father?

    Jesus, you Lefties are REALLY rattled by how this is heading for your guy aren't you?
    Could point out that Tories have been picking over the late Ralph Miliband's estate all morning.

    But I fear you're so lost to the tribe that it's not really worth it.
  • I see the BBC is distinctly uninterested in certain stories today. There's a shock. I bet if the it had been the other way around they would be foaming at the mouth.

    Possibly; though on the other hand, perhaps not. Unless you tell us what stories you mean, it is hard to say.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699

    Smarmeron said:

    FPT.

    @MarqueeMark
    Ed's opponents have opened up an opportunity to have Cameron's fathers will and estate held to scrutiny.
    As a man who made his fortune creating tax limiting schemes offshore (including one in Switzerland at the time of the present leaks) it may prove illuminating as a comparison.
    The majority of the Cameron families fortune is based on tax avoidance, not just a possible one off variation.

    Cameron's father?

    Cameron's DEAD father?

    Jesus, you Lefties are REALLY rattled by how this is heading for your guy aren't you?
    And you pb tories would never attack the war record or beliefs of Ed M's DEAD father would you you blithering hypocrite ?
  • Keir Stamer hasn't had the memo:

    The Labour candidate and former DPP Keir Starmer has admitted that Ed Miliband’s financial arrangements were “intended to reduce tax”, raising questions about the Labour’s leader decision to attack tax “avoiders”.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ed-miliband/11410824/Ed-Miliband-intended-to-reduce-tax-admits-Keir-Starmer.html
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Bill and Bob should get married for tax purposes. :smile:
  • Dair said:

    The cycle to work scheme is probably the most ridiculous middle class subsidy one could imagine. Whoever came up with it must be such a joy at dinner parties...

    Anyone can use it – just a cheap way of getting a bike. Keeps cars of the roads. What's the problem?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    edited February 2015

    Today's PB TORY QUIZ

    Bill is a father of two, earns £40,000pa. He bikes to work on a racer he purchased through the government's own cycle-to-work scheme, in which is he able to pay for the bike from his gross salary rather than his take-home-pay. He uses childcare vouchers to reduce the burden of paying for his older daughter's after school club and his two-year-old son's day care. Other than these salary sacrifices, he pays normal income tax to HMRC at the basic rate.

    Bob is a multinational oligarch who shelters much of his annual profits in offshore tax havens, thus reducing his tax obligations to HMRC by £17m a year.

    Bill learns of Bob's circumstances and thinks he is unreasonably avoiding paying his way. Is he a hypocrite?

    Bill on reflection, realises that even though Bob owns businesses that are multinational, he is glad that such a successful chap has chosen to base his HQ here, employ some British workers and live in Britain due to the Conservatives low corporation tax rates and lack of Hollande type envy taxes and hence Bob spends a fair chunk of his wealth here.

    Bill says "Good luck to you Bob - you have done well for yourself !"



  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited February 2015
    antifrank said:

    isam said:

    Today's PB TORY QUIZ

    Bill is a father of two, earns £40,000pa. He bikes to work on a racer he purchased through the government's own cycle-to-work scheme, in which is he able to pay for the bike from his gross salary rather than his take-home-pay. He uses childcare vouchers to reduce the burden of paying for his older daughter's after school club and his two-year-old son's day care. Other than these salary sacrifices, he pays normal income tax to HMRC at the basic rate.

    Bob is a multinational oligarch who shelters much of his annual profits in offshore tax havens, thus reducing his tax obligations to HMRC by £17m a year.

    Bill learns of Bob's circumstances and thinks he is unreasonably avoiding paying his way. Is he a hypocrite?

    Couldn't care less but Bill sounds a right prick
    That's a bit harsh. Bill has only just got over the trauma that higher rate taxpayers no longer get child benefit.
    Whenever he can remember the password, he uses the login 'Billojob'.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,020

    Today's PB TORY QUIZ

    Bill is a father of two, earns £40,000pa. He bikes to work on a racer he purchased through the government's own cycle-to-work scheme, in which is he able to pay for the bike from his gross salary rather than his take-home-pay. He uses childcare vouchers to reduce the burden of paying for his older daughter's after school club and his two-year-old son's day care. Other than these salary sacrifices, he pays normal income tax to HMRC at the basic rate.

    Bob is a multinational oligarch who shelters much of his annual profits in offshore tax havens, thus reducing his tax obligations to HMRC by £17m a year.

    Bill learns of Bob's circumstances and thinks he is unreasonably avoiding paying his way. Is he a hypocrite?

    Surely on your measure yes since someone who has got a job paying £40K a year from a government scheme is going to rub that socialist class solidarity dust off his feet and join the aspirational Tory voting classes so quick you would not have time to blink.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,384
    JackW said:

    Bill and Bob should get married for tax purposes. :smile:

    Anything you want to tell us about your tax arrangements Mr Jack?

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    edited February 2015
    BenM said:

    Smarmeron said:

    FPT.

    @MarqueeMark
    Ed's opponents have opened up an opportunity to have Cameron's fathers will and estate held to scrutiny.
    As a man who made his fortune creating tax limiting schemes offshore (including one in Switzerland at the time of the present leaks) it may prove illuminating as a comparison.
    The majority of the Cameron families fortune is based on tax avoidance, not just a possible one off variation.

    Cameron's father?

    Cameron's DEAD father?

    Jesus, you Lefties are REALLY rattled by how this is heading for your guy aren't you?
    Could point out that Tories have been picking over the late Ralph Miliband's estate all morning.

    But I fear you're so lost to the tribe that it's not really worth it.
    No, we've been picking over Ed's hypocrisy of two days ago - criticising in others behaviour his family have displayed themselves....

    For once, I agree with Nigel:

    Nigel Farage also joined the debate, saying that Mr Miliband would "regret" raising the issue.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108

    Dair said:

    The cycle to work scheme is probably the most ridiculous middle class subsidy one could imagine. Whoever came up with it must be such a joy at dinner parties...

    Anyone can use it – just a cheap way of getting a bike. Keeps cars of the roads. What's the problem?
    The value in the scheme is not in getting a bike to commute. It is in subsidising the purchase of bikes in at least the £500+ mark but doesn't really become worth the effort till you're up above the £1000 mark.

    That's not the price range of commuter bikes.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Smarmeron said:

    FPT.

    @MarqueeMark
    Ed's opponents have opened up an opportunity to have Cameron's fathers will and estate held to scrutiny.
    As a man who made his fortune creating tax limiting schemes offshore (including one in Switzerland at the time of the present leaks) it may prove illuminating as a comparison.
    The majority of the Cameron families fortune is based on tax avoidance, not just a possible one off variation.

    Cameron's father?

    Cameron's DEAD father?

    Jesus, you Lefties are REALLY rattled by how this is heading for your guy aren't you?
    Yeah, because no one on the right has ever mentioned Ralph Milliband.
  • DavidL said:

    Today's PB TORY QUIZ

    Bill is a father of two, earns £40,000pa. He bikes to work on a racer he purchased through the government's own cycle-to-work scheme, in which is he able to pay for the bike from his gross salary rather than his take-home-pay. He uses childcare vouchers to reduce the burden of paying for his older daughter's after school club and his two-year-old son's day care. Other than these salary sacrifices, he pays normal income tax to HMRC at the basic rate.

    Bob is a multinational oligarch who shelters much of his annual profits in offshore tax havens, thus reducing his tax obligations to HMRC by £17m a year.

    Bill learns of Bob's circumstances and thinks he is unreasonably avoiding paying his way. Is he a hypocrite?

    Surely on your measure yes since someone who has got a job paying £40K a year from a government scheme is going to rub that socialist class solidarity dust off his feet and join the aspirational Tory voting classes so quick you would not have time to blink.
    Eh? he doesn't make the £40k from the scheme. His employer is irrelevant – my point is that he is a tax avoider in the narrowest most pedantic form of the measure.

    You might simplify it further and say anyone who buys 200 Marlboro Lights when routing through Abu Dhabi is also a tax avoider and therefore is in no position to criticise the likes of Fink.
  • FernandoFernando Posts: 145
    Given Miliband’s purer than pure stance on the issue of tax avoidance he definitely does have questions to answer over the DoV. It was of no benefit to his mother who could inherit her husband’s assets tax free. I've been party to something similar. The benefit to the children was that when the mother died her portion of the house was worth less than the whole and therefore the inheritance tax bill would be reduced. As the sons were recipients of 20% of a house (a rather surprising event) I can’t belief they weren’t aware of what was happening and why. Did they meet with the advisors at any time or communicate with him to discuss the arrangement? I would in their circumstances. Why was the 20% figure chosen and not 25% or 10%? Was it to utilize the tax free allowance allowance available to Ralph?
    And in what way is this not tax avoidance but Lord Fink putting assets in a trust for his children is?
  • antifrank said:

    isam said:

    Today's PB TORY QUIZ

    Bill is a father of two, earns £40,000pa. He bikes to work on a racer he purchased through the government's own cycle-to-work scheme, in which is he able to pay for the bike from his gross salary rather than his take-home-pay. He uses childcare vouchers to reduce the burden of paying for his older daughter's after school club and his two-year-old son's day care. Other than these salary sacrifices, he pays normal income tax to HMRC at the basic rate.

    Bob is a multinational oligarch who shelters much of his annual profits in offshore tax havens, thus reducing his tax obligations to HMRC by £17m a year.

    Bill learns of Bob's circumstances and thinks he is unreasonably avoiding paying his way. Is he a hypocrite?

    Couldn't care less but Bill sounds a right prick
    That's a bit harsh. Bill has only just got over the trauma that higher rate taxpayers no longer get child benefit.
    He's not a higher rate taxpayer – he earns £40k. Not that it is relevant to this point!
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    antifrank said:

    isam said:

    Today's PB TORY QUIZ

    Bill is a father of two, earns £40,000pa. He bikes to work on a racer he purchased through the government's own cycle-to-work scheme, in which is he able to pay for the bike from his gross salary rather than his take-home-pay. He uses childcare vouchers to reduce the burden of paying for his older daughter's after school club and his two-year-old son's day care. Other than these salary sacrifices, he pays normal income tax to HMRC at the basic rate.

    Bob is a multinational oligarch who shelters much of his annual profits in offshore tax havens, thus reducing his tax obligations to HMRC by £17m a year.

    Bill learns of Bob's circumstances and thinks he is unreasonably avoiding paying his way. Is he a hypocrite?

    Couldn't care less but Bill sounds a right prick
    That's a bit harsh. Bill has only just got over the trauma that higher rate taxpayers no longer get child benefit.
    Remember the backlash that was due to swing the election to Labour due to 10million angry fathers having to submit a tax return and being fined ?

    ah tim...
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    antifrank said:

    isam said:

    Today's PB TORY QUIZ

    Bill is a father of two, earns £40,000pa. He bikes to work on a racer he purchased through the government's own cycle-to-work scheme, in which is he able to pay for the bike from his gross salary rather than his take-home-pay. He uses childcare vouchers to reduce the burden of paying for his older daughter's after school club and his two-year-old son's day care. Other than these salary sacrifices, he pays normal income tax to HMRC at the basic rate.

    Bob is a multinational oligarch who shelters much of his annual profits in offshore tax havens, thus reducing his tax obligations to HMRC by £17m a year.

    Bill learns of Bob's circumstances and thinks he is unreasonably avoiding paying his way. Is he a hypocrite?

    Couldn't care less but Bill sounds a right prick
    That's a bit harsh. Bill has only just got over the trauma that higher rate taxpayers no longer get child benefit.
    Haha

    God, Bill sounds a crushing bore... I reckon he calls himself Bill when he tries to fit in down the pub, Wills in the Quinoa and flaxseed shop, Billy when he is pretending to like football, Willie when he is in Scotland, and William when trying to get his kids into a fee paying school
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,928
    I notice with WillHill Cameron is strong odds on to be PM in August, Ed is odds against. The polls might suggest otherwise but I'll leave it to those who understand the internal politics to bet on that one. I still think Labour + SNP could be around a majority.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    GIN1138 said:

    JackW said:

    Bill and Bob should get married for tax purposes. :smile:

    Anything you want to tell us about your tax arrangements Mr Jack?

    I wouldn't want to avoid or evade your question, which is precisely my tax arrangement status.

  • Fernando said:


    And in what way is this not tax avoidance but Lord Fink putting assets in a trust for his children is?

    Its very simple.

    Ed is Labour.

    Fink is Tory.
  • Given the responses, I think the Bill and Bob device may actually have worked in making its point...

    Miracles do happen - right here on PB.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,384

    I notice with WillHill Cameron is strong odds on to be PM in August, Ed is odds against. The polls might suggest otherwise but I'll leave it to those who understand the internal politics to bet on that one. I still think Labour + SNP could be around a majority.

    Maybe. But you have to factor in a number of Labour MP's who will quit the party if Ed does a deal with the SNP...

  • isam said:

    antifrank said:

    isam said:

    Today's PB TORY QUIZ

    Bill is a father of two, earns £40,000pa. He bikes to work on a racer he purchased through the government's own cycle-to-work scheme, in which is he able to pay for the bike from his gross salary rather than his take-home-pay. He uses childcare vouchers to reduce the burden of paying for his older daughter's after school club and his two-year-old son's day care. Other than these salary sacrifices, he pays normal income tax to HMRC at the basic rate.

    Bob is a multinational oligarch who shelters much of his annual profits in offshore tax havens, thus reducing his tax obligations to HMRC by £17m a year.

    Bill learns of Bob's circumstances and thinks he is unreasonably avoiding paying his way. Is he a hypocrite?

    Couldn't care less but Bill sounds a right prick
    That's a bit harsh. Bill has only just got over the trauma that higher rate taxpayers no longer get child benefit.
    Haha

    God, Bill sounds a crushing bore... I reckon he calls himself Bill when he tries to fit in down the pub, Wills in the Quinoa and flaxseed shop, Billy when he is pretending to like football, Willie when he is in Scotland, and William when trying to get his kids into a fee paying school
    He says his name's William but I'm sure,
    He's Bill or Billy or Mac or Buddy
    And he's plain ugly to me
    And I wonder if he's ever had a day of fun in his whole life
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Given the responses, I think the Bill and Bob device may actually have worked in making its point...

    Miracles do happen - right here on PB.

    Have you congratulated Bob on building up a successful and profitable business empire yet ?

  • Today's PB TORY QUIZ

    Bill is a father of two, earns £40,000pa. He bikes to work on a racer he purchased through the government's own cycle-to-work scheme, in which is he able to pay for the bike from his gross salary rather than his take-home-pay. He uses childcare vouchers to reduce the burden of paying for his older daughter's after school club and his two-year-old son's day care. Other than these salary sacrifices, he pays normal income tax to HMRC at the basic rate.

    Bob is a multinational oligarch who shelters much of his annual profits in offshore tax havens, thus reducing his tax obligations to HMRC by £17m a year.

    Bill learns of Bob's circumstances and thinks he is unreasonably avoiding paying his way. Is he a hypocrite?

    To repeat a question I asked you on TPT...

    Are you accusing Lord F of engaging in Tax Avoidance in the sense of deliberately exploiting loopholes rather than simple Tax Planning (as Bill is doing in your example, and by extension Ed with DoV etc)..?

    If you are accusing him of this can you provide details of why/how? As far as I can see his arrangements were well within what HMRC has allowed for, i.e. simple Tax Planning/Efficiency.

    You're making a lot of noise over the last few threads about how Tories don't get it and so on, but as far as I can see you are conflating (either deliberately or otherwise) the 2 and then crying foul when the same is done in reverse.
  • Dair said:

    Dair said:

    The cycle to work scheme is probably the most ridiculous middle class subsidy one could imagine. Whoever came up with it must be such a joy at dinner parties...

    Anyone can use it – just a cheap way of getting a bike. Keeps cars of the roads. What's the problem?
    The value in the scheme is not in getting a bike to commute. It is in subsidising the purchase of bikes in at least the £500+ mark but doesn't really become worth the effort till you're up above the £1000 mark.

    That's not the price range of commuter bikes.
    The scheme has a limit of £1000 - ie you can't use it to buy a £3000 carbon fibre bicycle. The savings are also greater on bicycles that cost less than £500 - the final payment is lower.

    Duh.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    GIN1138 said:

    I notice with WillHill Cameron is strong odds on to be PM in August, Ed is odds against. The polls might suggest otherwise but I'll leave it to those who understand the internal politics to bet on that one. I still think Labour + SNP could be around a majority.

    Maybe. But you have to factor in a number of Labour MP's who will quit the party if Ed does a deal with the SNP...
    The vast majority of Labour MPs that would object to any deal with the SNP won't be Labour MPs after May 7th.

    In any case, however, on projections, if Labour + SNP/Plaid is a majority there is NO OTHER possible majority other than a Grand Coalition.
  • Mike, the 11.4% figure has been repeatedly challenged - on the grounds of (inter alia):

    (a) Labour gaining support from LD's disproportionately where it won't help

    (b) Con losing support to UKIP disproportionately where it won't matter

    http://www.ncpolitics.uk/2015/02/uniform-swing-can-misleading-even-within-england.html/

    The Con-Lab swing we see in the headline figures is hardly any actual Con-Lab switching at all.

    a and b either or both may be correct but it is more likely that they are both simple wishful thinking
    The figures at NC Politics don't make sense to me. If in marginal Con-Lab there has been a drop of 10 points by LibDems (therefore from an average of 17% to 7%), then a load of marginals are going Lab by a mile (assuming this drop has not gone to Greens or UKIP or even Tory). Or have I missed something?
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Fernando
    The difference is, and this is where Fink does have a point, is that in a complicated tax system, everyone has a right to minimize their tax.
    It's when vast sums of money are manipulated by individuals and companies for the sole purposes of reducing to absurd levels, or completely avoiding tax that the public sees a difference.
    This may be green eyed envy, but deal with it, it is there.
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083

    Keir Stamer hasn't had the memo:

    The Labour candidate and former DPP Keir Starmer has admitted that Ed Miliband’s financial arrangements were “intended to reduce tax”, raising questions about the Labour’s leader decision to attack tax “avoiders”.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ed-miliband/11410824/Ed-Miliband-intended-to-reduce-tax-admits-Keir-Starmer.html

    "Intent to reduce tax" and "tax avoidance" aren't synonymous. The former is a necessary, but not sufficient condition for the latter.

    This may have been mentioned occasionally on the previous thread.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    edited February 2015
    Fernando said:

    Given Miliband’s purer than pure stance on the issue of tax avoidance he definitely does have questions to answer over the DoV. It was of no benefit to his mother who could inherit her husband’s assets tax free. I've been party to something similar. The benefit to the children was that when the mother died her portion of the house was worth less than the whole and therefore the inheritance tax bill would be reduced. As the sons were recipients of 20% of a house (a rather surprising event) I can’t belief they weren’t aware of what was happening and why. Did they meet with the advisors at any time or communicate with him to discuss the arrangement? I would in their circumstances. Why was the 20% figure chosen and not 25% or 10%? Was it to utilize the tax free allowance allowance available to Ralph?
    And in what way is this not tax avoidance but Lord Fink putting assets in a trust for his children is?

    "Was it to utilize the tax free allowance allowance available to Ralph?"

    Yes. Reflect on the answer, and move along...
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    Very good article mike.

    The one caveat here is that the betting markets appear to be rather skewed towards the tories. That's great if you're placing value bets now and waiting until may 8th to collect - less good if you're wanting to trade in & out of positions during the campaign.

    It's just something to consider - the market may not *rationalise* any time soon.

    Remember - the Romney/Intrade price was wildly optimistic all the way through the campaign, despite all the evidence to the contrary. The market never did readjust.
  • PB TORY QUIZ II

    Joe's wife has small feet. She needs some gym kit so buys her zero-rated girls' trainers to avoid the VAT on a similar adult version. Joe earns £18,000 as a warehouseman.

    Sam sells gold around the world, sheltering his profits in tax havens to avoid up to £30m a year in taxes to HMRC.

    Joe reads about Sam's tax avoidance in the newspaper and reckons he should do more to pay his way. Is he a hypocrite?
  • Dair said:

    Dair said:

    The cycle to work scheme is probably the most ridiculous middle class subsidy one could imagine. Whoever came up with it must be such a joy at dinner parties...

    Anyone can use it – just a cheap way of getting a bike. Keeps cars of the roads. What's the problem?
    The value in the scheme is not in getting a bike to commute. It is in subsidising the purchase of bikes in at least the £500+ mark but doesn't really become worth the effort till you're up above the £1000 mark.

    That's not the price range of commuter bikes.
    The scheme has a limit of £1000 - ie you can't use it to buy a £3000 carbon fibre bicycle. The savings are also greater on bicycles that cost less than £500 - the final payment is lower.

    Duh.
    Correct.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,384
    JackW said:

    GIN1138 said:

    JackW said:

    Bill and Bob should get married for tax purposes. :smile:

    Anything you want to tell us about your tax arrangements Mr Jack?

    I wouldn't want to avoid or evade your question, which is precisely my tax arrangement status.

    That's more than we've got out of Rogerdarums so far, but I'm still on the case...

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,020

    DavidL said:

    Today's PB TORY QUIZ

    Bill is a father of two, earns £40,000pa. He bikes to work on a racer he purchased through the government's own cycle-to-work scheme, in which is he able to pay for the bike from his gross salary rather than his take-home-pay. He uses childcare vouchers to reduce the burden of paying for his older daughter's after school club and his two-year-old son's day care. Other than these salary sacrifices, he pays normal income tax to HMRC at the basic rate.

    Bob is a multinational oligarch who shelters much of his annual profits in offshore tax havens, thus reducing his tax obligations to HMRC by £17m a year.

    Bill learns of Bob's circumstances and thinks he is unreasonably avoiding paying his way. Is he a hypocrite?

    Surely on your measure yes since someone who has got a job paying £40K a year from a government scheme is going to rub that socialist class solidarity dust off his feet and join the aspirational Tory voting classes so quick you would not have time to blink.
    Eh? he doesn't make the £40k from the scheme. His employer is irrelevant – my point is that he is a tax avoider in the narrowest most pedantic form of the measure.

    You might simplify it further and say anyone who buys 200 Marlboro Lights when routing through Abu Dhabi is also a tax avoider and therefore is in no position to criticise the likes of Fink.
    I think I made a very similar point in a slightly self indulgent rant on the previous thread.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    isam said:

    antifrank said:

    isam said:

    Today's PB TORY QUIZ

    Bill is a father of two, earns £40,000pa. He bikes to work on a racer he purchased through the government's own cycle-to-work scheme, in which is he able to pay for the bike from his gross salary rather than his take-home-pay. He uses childcare vouchers to reduce the burden of paying for his older daughter's after school club and his two-year-old son's day care. Other than these salary sacrifices, he pays normal income tax to HMRC at the basic rate.

    Bob is a multinational oligarch who shelters much of his annual profits in offshore tax havens, thus reducing his tax obligations to HMRC by £17m a year.

    Bill learns of Bob's circumstances and thinks he is unreasonably avoiding paying his way. Is he a hypocrite?

    Couldn't care less but Bill sounds a right prick
    That's a bit harsh. Bill has only just got over the trauma that higher rate taxpayers no longer get child benefit.
    Haha

    God, Bill sounds a crushing bore... I reckon he calls himself Bill when he tries to fit in down the pub, Wills in the Quinoa and flaxseed shop, Billy when he is pretending to like football, Willie when he is in Scotland, and William when trying to get his kids into a fee paying school
    And Bob on the internet.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410
    Bob's wife divorces him and runs off with Bill Somebody.

    Does this change the sympathies ?
  • Mike, the 11.4% figure has been repeatedly challenged - on the grounds of (inter alia):

    (a) Labour gaining support from LD's disproportionately where it won't help

    (b) Con losing support to UKIP disproportionately where it won't matter

    http://www.ncpolitics.uk/2015/02/uniform-swing-can-misleading-even-within-england.html/

    The Con-Lab swing we see in the headline figures is hardly any actual Con-Lab switching at all.

    a and b either or both may be correct but it is more likely that they are both simple wishful thinking
    The figures at NC Politics don't make sense to me. If in marginal Con-Lab there has been a drop of 10 points by LibDems (therefore from an average of 17% to 7%), then a load of marginals are going Lab by a mile (assuming this drop has not gone to Greens or UKIP or even Tory). Or have I missed something?
    LD voters aren't splintering to Labour overwhelmingly. Per today's Populus, for example (turnout weighted), 2010 LD voters break:

    Con 15 Lab 30 LD 35 UKIP 8 Grn 9
  • DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Today's PB TORY QUIZ

    Bill is a father of two, earns £40,000pa. He bikes to work on a racer he purchased through the government's own cycle-to-work scheme, in which is he able to pay for the bike from his gross salary rather than his take-home-pay. He uses childcare vouchers to reduce the burden of paying for his older daughter's after school club and his two-year-old son's day care. Other than these salary sacrifices, he pays normal income tax to HMRC at the basic rate.

    Bob is a multinational oligarch who shelters much of his annual profits in offshore tax havens, thus reducing his tax obligations to HMRC by £17m a year.

    Bill learns of Bob's circumstances and thinks he is unreasonably avoiding paying his way. Is he a hypocrite?

    Surely on your measure yes since someone who has got a job paying £40K a year from a government scheme is going to rub that socialist class solidarity dust off his feet and join the aspirational Tory voting classes so quick you would not have time to blink.
    Eh? he doesn't make the £40k from the scheme. His employer is irrelevant – my point is that he is a tax avoider in the narrowest most pedantic form of the measure.

    You might simplify it further and say anyone who buys 200 Marlboro Lights when routing through Abu Dhabi is also a tax avoider and therefore is in no position to criticise the likes of Fink.
    I think I made a very similar point in a slightly self indulgent rant on the previous thread.
    You did. Although it was more of a elegant explanation than a rant. Don't let the bastards grind you down :)
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    PB TORY QUIZ II

    Joe's wife has small feet. She needs some gym kit so buys her zero-rated girls' trainers to avoid the VAT on a similar adult version. Joe earns £18,000 as a warehouseman.

    Sam sells gold around the world, sheltering his profits in tax havens to avoid up to £30m a year in taxes to HMRC.

    Joe reads about Sam's tax avoidance in the newspaper and reckons he should do more to pay his way. Is he a hypocrite?

    A husband should never buy his wife's footwear. :smiley:

  • Pong said:

    Very good article mike.

    The one caveat here is that the betting markets appear to be rather skewed towards the tories. That's great if you're placing value bets now and waiting until may 8th to collect - less good if you're wanting to trade in & out of positions during the campaign.

    It's just something to consider - the market may not *rationalise* any time soon.

    Remember - the Romney/Intrade price was wildly optimistic all the way through the campaign, despite all the evidence to the contrary. The market never did readjust.

    This was used as evidence for a conspiracy theory -- that GOP hackers had fixed the voting machines in their favour.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @JackW
    Perhaps not buy, but paying?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    PB TORY QUIZ II

    Joe's wife has small feet. She needs some gym kit so buys her zero-rated girls' trainers to avoid the VAT on a similar adult version. Joe earns £18,000 as a warehouseman.

    Sam sells gold around the world, sheltering his profits in tax havens to avoid up to £30m a year in taxes to HMRC.

    Joe reads about Sam's tax avoidance in the newspaper and reckons he should do more to pay his way. Is he a hypocrite?

    Depends on what Joe would do if he became as rich as Sam I would think
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,173

    isam said:

    antifrank said:

    isam said:

    Today's PB TORY QUIZ

    Bill is a father of two, earns £40,000pa. He bikes to work on a racer he purchased through the government's own cycle-to-work scheme, in which is he able to pay for the bike from his gross salary rather than his take-home-pay. He uses childcare vouchers to reduce the burden of paying for his older daughter's after school club and his two-year-old son's day care. Other than these salary sacrifices, he pays normal income tax to HMRC at the basic rate.

    Bob is a multinational oligarch who shelters much of his annual profits in offshore tax havens, thus reducing his tax obligations to HMRC by £17m a year.

    Bill learns of Bob's circumstances and thinks he is unreasonably avoiding paying his way. Is he a hypocrite?

    Couldn't care less but Bill sounds a right prick
    That's a bit harsh. Bill has only just got over the trauma that higher rate taxpayers no longer get child benefit.
    Haha

    God, Bill sounds a crushing bore... I reckon he calls himself Bill when he tries to fit in down the pub, Wills in the Quinoa and flaxseed shop, Billy when he is pretending to like football, Willie when he is in Scotland, and William when trying to get his kids into a fee paying school
    He says his name's William but I'm sure,
    He's Bill or Billy or Mac or Buddy
    And he's plain ugly to me
    And I wonder if he's ever had a day of fun in his whole life
    Is Bill the Bill Somebody who's friends with Ed Nobody??
  • isam said:

    antifrank said:

    isam said:

    Today's PB TORY QUIZ

    Bill is a father of two, earns £40,000pa. He bikes to work on a racer he purchased through the government's own cycle-to-work scheme, in which is he able to pay for the bike from his gross salary rather than his take-home-pay. He uses childcare vouchers to reduce the burden of paying for his older daughter's after school club and his two-year-old son's day care. Other than these salary sacrifices, he pays normal income tax to HMRC at the basic rate.

    Bob is a multinational oligarch who shelters much of his annual profits in offshore tax havens, thus reducing his tax obligations to HMRC by £17m a year.

    Bill learns of Bob's circumstances and thinks he is unreasonably avoiding paying his way. Is he a hypocrite?

    Couldn't care less but Bill sounds a right prick
    That's a bit harsh. Bill has only just got over the trauma that higher rate taxpayers no longer get child benefit.
    Haha

    God, Bill sounds a crushing bore... I reckon he calls himself Bill when he tries to fit in down the pub, Wills in the Quinoa and flaxseed shop, Billy when he is pretending to like football, Willie when he is in Scotland, and William when trying to get his kids into a fee paying school
    And Bob on the internet.
    I don't know why I indulge this dreary shit from you but what the hell: none of the four characters I have presented today reflect my personal circumstance. You are weirdly obsessed with me. Just give it a rest.
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    TheWatcher

    'And Bob on the internet.'

    Bob Somebody on the internet..
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,173

    PB TORY QUIZ II

    Joe's wife has small feet. She needs some gym kit so buys her zero-rated girls' trainers to avoid the VAT on a similar adult version. Joe earns £18,000 as a warehouseman.

    Sam sells gold around the world, sheltering his profits in tax havens to avoid up to £30m a year in taxes to HMRC.

    Joe reads about Sam's tax avoidance in the newspaper and reckons he should do more to pay his way. Is he a hypocrite?

    Any guesses on the tax avoidance schemes of BobaJob and Bobafett anyone?
  • I wish people would stop referring to Bill Somebody. I can't get the Kings Of Leon out of my head now.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108

    Dair said:

    Dair said:

    The cycle to work scheme is probably the most ridiculous middle class subsidy one could imagine. Whoever came up with it must be such a joy at dinner parties...

    Anyone can use it – just a cheap way of getting a bike. Keeps cars of the roads. What's the problem?
    The value in the scheme is not in getting a bike to commute. It is in subsidising the purchase of bikes in at least the £500+ mark but doesn't really become worth the effort till you're up above the £1000 mark.

    That's not the price range of commuter bikes.
    The scheme has a limit of £1000 - ie you can't use it to buy a £3000 carbon fibre bicycle. The savings are also greater on bicycles that cost less than £500 - the final payment is lower.

    Duh.
    My error on the cap. But the saving in terms of Tax, NI and VAT (usually people forget the VAT) is only really substantial enough to make it worthwhile at the higher end. A £1k bike will end up costing a 40% tax payer still paying marginal NI around £300. A £200 bike will end up costing an individual on Minimum Wage around £100.

    In a worst case scenario a 25 hour a week working on £10k per annum would end up paying £720 for the £1k bike.

    But the main point I was making is that the Tax Incentive is completely and totally detached from the Claimed Benefit. To commute to work, it is perfectly adequate to get a very decent bike for under £100 on Gumtree. When I started cycle commuting back in 2004, the new bike I got was perfectly fine and well under £200 and was still in good nick after 6 years of well over 2500km a year.

    So the Tax Incentive is unnecessary. Far better would be forcing firms to get rid of dress codes or to provide changing facilities, require secure lock up areas on premises and spend a lot more in terms of road provision for cyclists.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    edited February 2015
    The prices look right to me if you believe an average of the various models. So in a sense you're really betting on the models :-)

    As a few of us have been saying, the next PM markets [NB compare both "PM after GE" and "PM after Cameron" on betfair] seem to offer more value - and combining them with a bet on Tories Most Seats may well get you a free [but not risk-free!] middle of quite a few plausible outcomes (where the Tories lead by 0-15 seats or so).
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,712

    PB TORY QUIZ II

    Joe's wife has small feet. She needs some gym kit so buys her zero-rated girls' trainers to avoid the VAT on a similar adult version. Joe earns £18,000 as a warehouseman.

    Sam sells gold around the world, sheltering his profits in tax havens to avoid up to £30m a year in taxes to HMRC.

    Joe reads about Sam's tax avoidance in the newspaper and reckons he should do more to pay his way. Is he a hypocrite?

    Depends on where Sam lives.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Smarmeron said:

    @JackW
    Perhaps not buy, but paying?

    It's said by some I have some acquaintance with that situation.

  • DaemonBarberDaemonBarber Posts: 1,626
    edited February 2015
    __Bobajob__ Quiz

    Steve is a Software Engineer at a large-ish company. He Has contributes to a pension scheme, has slary sacrifice benefits for sports equipment and a ISA that he seeks to maximise each year.

    Phil is a freelance Software Engineer working under a Ltd Co. He pays himself a small salary and dividends. In his last Self Assessment he worked out that he owed nothing for the year. (edit) for argument's sake HMRC have reviewed and decided that Phil is not within IR35.

    Steve finds out about Phil's arrangements and thinks he should contribute more. Is he a hypocrite?

  • FernandoFernando Posts: 145
    Rod, the eventual benefit was to the Miliband brothers and them alone. They had to sign papers presumably when the 20% of a house was given to them. Did they not discuss with the advisors why the transaction was taking place? And were they not informed that it was likely to avoid them tax in the future? It is, after all, rather unusual to transfer 20% of the value of a house.
    Most likely this was a family decision and all members of the family were well aware of what they were doing and why.
    I would do the same in their circumstances but then I wouldn't pretend to be outraged when other people take legitimate steps to avoid a tax charge. I think it's called hypocrisy.
  • VerulamiusVerulamius Posts: 1,550
    The point to note from today's Populus is that both Labour and Conservative are at their lowest level over the past year. Both parties have reduced share on average from Jan to Feb.
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    edited February 2015
    @CarlottaVance

    'The Labour candidate and former DPP Keir Starmer has admitted that Ed Miliband’s financial arrangements were “intended to reduce tax”, raising questions about the Labour’s leader decision to attack tax “avoiders”.'

    Just sick of the hypocrisy and bullshit..
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,173
    Smarmeron said:

    @Fernando
    The difference is, and this is where Fink does have a point, is that in a complicated tax system, everyone has a right to minimize their tax.
    It's when vast sums of money are manipulated by individuals and companies for the sole purposes of reducing to absurd levels, or completely avoiding tax that the public sees a difference.
    This may be green eyed envy, but deal with it, it is there.


    For me to be serious, the elephant in the room is what happens to the money of the well off v the poor. The latter have to spend most of their cash to make ends meet. I remember it well when i was younger. now I'm better off and, guess what - I don't spend half of my income each moth and I have a largeish savings pot in the bank. All of the rest I spend. My savings are in banks earning very little interest but much of that money is being used to invest in business, jobs and helping others to make a living. The richer one is the greater the amount that goes into wealth creation. I know left-wingers don't like it but that's the basic truth of it. Oh and don't let's forget that those who pay by far the most for schools, NHS...... are the better off. P*ss us off too much and we make sure our money stays out of the UK. You can get €1.35 for a £ today - compared to €1.05 in 2009. Like to guess what will happen if EdM is PM?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,705
    antifrank said:

    I wish people would stop referring to Bill Somebody. I can't get the Kings Of Leon out of my head now.

    Here's another hypothetical...

    Her name is Lola, she was a showgirl,
    But that was 30 years ago, when they used to have a show
    Now it's a disco, but not for Lola,
    Still in dress she used to wear,
    Faded feathers in her hair
    She sits there so refined,and drinks herself half-blind
    She lost her youth and she lost her Tony
    Now she's lost her mind

    Clearly now benefiting from the Winter Fuel Allowance and free Bus travel (given to her by Tony), but would benefit from greater provision of social care.
  • felix said:

    PB TORY QUIZ II

    Joe's wife has small feet. She needs some gym kit so buys her zero-rated girls' trainers to avoid the VAT on a similar adult version. Joe earns £18,000 as a warehouseman.

    Sam sells gold around the world, sheltering his profits in tax havens to avoid up to £30m a year in taxes to HMRC.

    Joe reads about Sam's tax avoidance in the newspaper and reckons he should do more to pay his way. Is he a hypocrite?

    Any guesses on the tax avoidance schemes of BobaJob and Bobafett anyone?
    Guess away – none of these for characters relates to me. My wife is a size 5.

    The personalisation of stuff on here is creepy.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410

    The prices look right to me if you believe an average of the various models. So in a sense you're really betting on the models :-)

    As a few of us have been saying, the next PM markets [NB compare both "PM after GE" and "PM after Cameron" on betfair] seem to offer more value - and combining them with a bet on Tories Most Seats may well get you a free [but not risk-free!] middle of quite a few plausible outcomes (where the Tories lead by 0-15 seats or so).

    All I want for May 7th is a Labour Minority Gov't with the SNP almost wiping them out in Scotland and through some miracle the Conservatives getting less votes than Labour but having a small seat lead.

    I'm green on a fair few other outcomes and the above isn't ultra pluaisble but it'd be nice.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,020
    JackW said:

    PB TORY QUIZ II

    Joe's wife has small feet. She needs some gym kit so buys her zero-rated girls' trainers to avoid the VAT on a similar adult version. Joe earns £18,000 as a warehouseman.

    Sam sells gold around the world, sheltering his profits in tax havens to avoid up to £30m a year in taxes to HMRC.

    Joe reads about Sam's tax avoidance in the newspaper and reckons he should do more to pay his way. Is he a hypocrite?

    A husband should never buy his wife's footwear. :smiley:

    I did buy my wife some elegant red high heels once. But only after hints that made a sledgehammer seem subtle. She seemed surprised and delighted!

    (Thinking this over maybe she really was and the other less than subtle hints over the years have passed me by. Hmm...)
  • john_zims said:

    @CarlottaVance

    'The Labour candidate and former DPP Keir Starmer has admitted that Ed Miliband’s financial arrangements were “intended to reduce tax”, raising questions about the Labour’s leader decision to attack tax “avoiders”.'

    Red on Red incoming.

    Just sick of the hypocrisy and bullshit..

    We've done this sketch already. And life's a bitch because even if every single Labour MP and donor turns out to have been at it, it will still hurt the Tories more, which is doubtless why CCHQ rang Lord Fink and told him to STFU.
  • Jonathan said:

    antifrank said:

    I wish people would stop referring to Bill Somebody. I can't get the Kings Of Leon out of my head now.

    Here's another hypothetical...

    Her name is Lola, she was a showgirl,
    But that was 30 years ago, when they used to have a show
    Now it's a disco, but not for Lola,
    Still in dress she used to wear,
    Faded feathers in her hair
    She sits there so refined,and drinks herself half-blind
    She lost her youth and she lost her Tony
    Now she's lost her mind

    Clearly now benefiting from the Winter Fuel Allowance and free Bus travel (given to her by Tony), but would benefit from greater provision of social care.
    She sounds as though she'd fit in well in Shoreditch.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited February 2015
    Immense margin, & no value IMO

    Closest is all three at 6/4 but still negative value

    Clegg and Farage 9/2 one of the worst bets of all time

    Who will be an MP post 2015 GE - Salmond, Clegg & Farage

    All 3 6/4
    Farage and Salmond 3/1
    Farage only 25/1
    Clegg and Salmond 3/1
    Clegg and Farage 9/2
    Salmond only 8/1
    Clegg only 25/1
    None 50

    http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/which-of-clegg-farage-and-salmond-will-be-mps-after-the-election
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited February 2015

    PB TORY QUIZ II

    Joe's wife has small feet. She needs some gym kit so buys her zero-rated girls' trainers to avoid the VAT on a similar adult version. Joe earns £18,000 as a warehouseman.

    Sam sells gold around the world, sheltering his profits in tax havens to avoid up to £30m a year in taxes to HMRC.

    Joe reads about Sam's tax avoidance in the newspaper and reckons he should do more to pay his way. Is he a hypocrite?

    Anthony ensures that his substantial worldwide earnings are channelled through a limited partnership owned by another partnership, itself owned in turn by a Mayfair based company. Since this shrouds everything in secrecy, no-one knows what his tax arrangements might be.

    WTF think Joes's wife, Bob and everyone else.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    edited February 2015
    Alistair said:

    antifrank said:

    This is an absolute no-brainer of a bet. It may or may not win, but the value in it screams out for the reasons that our host gives. Laying David Cameron for Prime Minister after the election (or, my second choice, backing Ed Miliband) is even better because it may still win even if the Conservatives get most seats.

    Betfair are offering a Most Seats England market. I'm trying to work out what a good Labour odds on that would be.
    On current prices, Labour are leading the Tories by about 21 in Wales and 14 in Scotland. The latter is clearly still very volatile. Yet the Tories are favoured by about 10 seats overall, implying a lead in England of 45.

    So Labour need to gain around 22/23 seats that they currently aren't expected to - at the top end of that range you are looking at seats like Rossendale & Darwen, Calder Valley and Somerset North East.

    They are 15/8 for each of these, suggesting that the 3.0 on betfair is approximately right.
  • isam said:

    Immense margin, & no value IMO

    Closest is all three at 6/4 but still negative value

    Clegg and Farage 9/2 one of the worst bets of all time

    http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/which-of-clegg-farage-and-salmond-will-be-mps-after-the-election

    I see that and raise you their 7/1 on a Con/Green coalition. Not least as they have "Any coalition involving Greens" at 33/1 in the same market.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,410

    Alistair said:

    antifrank said:

    This is an absolute no-brainer of a bet. It may or may not win, but the value in it screams out for the reasons that our host gives. Laying David Cameron for Prime Minister after the election (or, my second choice, backing Ed Miliband) is even better because it may still win even if the Conservatives get most seats.

    Betfair are offering a Most Seats England market. I'm trying to work out what a good Labour odds on that would be.
    On current prices, Labour are leading the Tories by about 21 in Wales and 14 in Scotland. The latter is clearly still very volatile. Yet the Tories are favoured by about 10 seats overall, implying a lead in England of 45.

    So Labour need to gain around 22/23 seats that they currently aren't expected to - at the top end of that range you are looking at seats like Rossendale & Darwen, Calder Valley and Somerset North East.

    They are 15/8 for each of these, suggesting that the 3.0 on betfair is approximately right.
    Wales is still a tremendous resevoir of vote efficiency for Labour.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Arnold had a strange hobby, collecting clothes, moonshine, washing line

    Georgie Boy was gay I guess, nothing more and nothing less.. the kindest guy I ever knew

    If Arnold gave Georgie some clothes he collected, who pays the bill when they are taken to the dry cleaners?
  • Part-ELBOW so far this week - Labour lead 0.8% inc. last night's YG.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262

    PB TORY QUIZ II

    Joe's wife has small feet. She needs some gym kit so buys her zero-rated girls' trainers to avoid the VAT on a similar adult version. Joe earns £18,000 as a warehouseman.

    Sam sells gold around the world, sheltering his profits in tax havens to avoid up to £30m a year in taxes to HMRC.

    Joe reads about Sam's tax avoidance in the newspaper and reckons he should do more to pay his way. Is he a hypocrite?

    Depends on where Sam lives.
    He lives in Monaco.

    Ed decides he's a tax dodger anyway, and smears his character in the media.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:

    antifrank said:

    This is an absolute no-brainer of a bet. It may or may not win, but the value in it screams out for the reasons that our host gives. Laying David Cameron for Prime Minister after the election (or, my second choice, backing Ed Miliband) is even better because it may still win even if the Conservatives get most seats.

    Betfair are offering a Most Seats England market. I'm trying to work out what a good Labour odds on that would be.
    On current prices, Labour are leading the Tories by about 21 in Wales and 14 in Scotland. The latter is clearly still very volatile. Yet the Tories are favoured by about 10 seats overall, implying a lead in England of 45.

    So Labour need to gain around 22/23 seats that they currently aren't expected to - at the top end of that range you are looking at seats like Rossendale & Darwen, Calder Valley and Somerset North East.

    They are 15/8 for each of these, suggesting that the 3.0 on betfair is approximately right.
    Wales is still a tremendous resevoir of vote efficiency for Labour.
    UKIP poll well in Wales. But I have never heard anyone suggest a constituency in Wales where UKIP might be in with a sniff. Has anyone got any suggestions on that front?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    PB TORY QUIZ II

    Joe's wife has small feet. She needs some gym kit so buys her zero-rated girls' trainers to avoid the VAT on a similar adult version. Joe earns £18,000 as a warehouseman.

    Sam sells gold around the world, sheltering his profits in tax havens to avoid up to £30m a year in taxes to HMRC.

    Joe reads about Sam's tax avoidance in the newspaper and reckons he should do more to pay his way. Is he a hypocrite?

    .

    WTF think Joes's wife, Bob and everyone else.
    Rita, Sue and Bob too ?
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @felix
    If the rich don't like the tax arrangements in the UK, they will leave therefore they should be allowed to pay what they wish in tax?
    Some might think, "If your money means more to you than your country or fellow citizens, then you leaving might not be such a bad idea"
This discussion has been closed.