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A clear majority of Brits think Starmer will unlikely be PM at the end of 2026– politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,940
edited 2:34PM in General
A clear majority of Brits think Starmer will unlikely be PM at the end of 2026– politicalbetting.com

Just 22% of Britons believe it is likely that Keir Starmer will still be prime minister at the end of 2026, as Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar calls on him to resignLikely: 22% (-7 from 5 Jan)Unlikely: 63% (+8)2024 LabourLikely: 37% (-8)Unlikely: 51% (+12)yougov.co.uk/topics/polit…

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Comments

  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 2,478
    Do the 'public' care?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 86,248
    So he's safe, then ?
  • TazTaz Posts: 24,773
    He seems shored up. For the time being.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 66,502
    Relatedly


    Telegraph breaking:


    “Starmer was shown proof of Mandelson and Epstein’s close friendship”

    This will go on and on and on. Until Starmer quits
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 37,412
    Taz said:

    He seems shored up. For the time being.

    Run aground more like.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 15,235
    Leon said:

    Relatedly


    Telegraph breaking:


    “Starmer was shown proof of Mandelson and Epstein’s close friendship”

    This will go on and on and on. Until Starmer quits

    He lied to me!
  • gettingbettergettingbetter Posts: 624
    One has to think it is good value to bet on him to still be leader. How could Reform voters be more correct than those of any other party?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 60,667
    Leon said:

    Relatedly


    Telegraph breaking:


    “Starmer was shown proof of Mandelson and Epstein’s close friendship”

    This will go on and on and on. Until Starmer quits

    It wasn’t clear evidence in the meaning of “clear evidence” as defined in the case of Bladrick The Dung Gather vs Earl Svein The Swine in 936, under Justice Cocklecarrot.

    This set out that just because Svein cut “This Is Clear Evidence” into the front face of his warhammer, it didn’t mean he was clearly informed of anything. Let alone the location of the wagon of gold that went missing.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 57,736
    wooliedyed said:

    Leon said:

    Relatedly


    Telegraph breaking:


    “Starmer was shown proof of Mandelson and Epstein’s close friendship”

    This will go on and on and on. Until Starmer quits

    He lied to me!
    So lie to me
    But do it with sincerity.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 4,694
    My guess would be guided by how hard the Labour Party find it to get rid of a leader even if they want him gone. But if they managed to get rid of one leader, the following leaders would probably fall like Conservatives.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 4,178
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    wooliedyed said:

    Leon said:

    Relatedly


    Telegraph breaking:


    “Starmer was shown proof of Mandelson and Epstein’s close friendship”

    This will go on and on and on. Until Starmer quits

    He lied to me!
    So lie to me
    But do it with sincerity.
    Ah yes, sincerity. If you can fake that, you've got it made.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 22,376
    It feels like there's a lot of year left in 2026 for Starmer to survive. And the more he is in survival mode the less likely he is to achieve anything useful that would help him to survive.

    And yet. One of the reasons I forecast Starmer to be PM is that there's no-one obvious to take over from him, and no obvious change of policy that a change of leader would implement.

    When Thatcher went it was so that her successor could ditch the poll tax. When Blair went it was because Brown was itching to take over. Cameron went because he couldn't credibly implement Brexit. Ditto May.

    Johnson is the anomaly to this pattern. He had to go because he'd forced his colleagues to lie for him one too many times. Starmer seems not to have reached that point yet.

    Truss had to go to complete the reversal of her budget policy.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 17,731
    gettingbetter said:

    One has to think it is good value to bet on him to still be leader. How could Reform voters be more correct than those of any other party?

    Yeah this is what jumped out at me. Reform voters tend to be wrong about everything, this is why they are always so angry.
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 2,275
    gettingbetter said:

    One has to think it is good value to bet on him to still be leader. How could Reform voters be more correct than those of any other party?

    Odds have shortened slightly, you could lay gone in '26 at 1.4 on Betfair yesterday .
    8% return to make it to April. 30% to July, 40% to October and 200% to 2027.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 57,578
    But not a clear majority of PB entries to the all important competition. And who is more likely to be right?
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 4,694
    Leon said:

    Relatedly


    Telegraph breaking:


    “Starmer was shown proof of Mandelson and Epstein’s close friendship”

    This will go on and on and on. Until Starmer quits

    Not necessarily. Events might crop up that play to all SKS's strengths and allow him his chance to shine.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 89,945
    edited 2:49PM
    Leon said:

    Relatedly


    Telegraph breaking:


    “Starmer was shown proof of Mandelson and Epstein’s close friendship”

    This will go on and on and on. Until Starmer quits

    There is nothing new that is killer there. But it circles back to again Starmer was shown evidence of Mandy staying in Epstein's NY residence while he was in jail. Mr Forensic obviously missed that bit just like the previous time the FT brought it to his attention.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 60,667
    Cicero said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    wooliedyed said:

    Leon said:

    Relatedly


    Telegraph breaking:


    “Starmer was shown proof of Mandelson and Epstein’s close friendship”

    This will go on and on and on. Until Starmer quits

    He lied to me!
    So lie to me
    But do it with sincerity.
    Ah yes, sincerity. If you can fake that, you've got it made.
    If only Starmer had a background of understanding that people lie to conceal things. Especially people who have previously lied to conceal malfeasance.

    Shame he never came across that before.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 57,804
    The pb predictions competition demonstrates that a week is a long time in politics.
  • TazTaz Posts: 24,773
    AnneJGP said:

    Leon said:

    Relatedly


    Telegraph breaking:


    “Starmer was shown proof of Mandelson and Epstein’s close friendship”

    This will go on and on and on. Until Starmer quits

    Not necessarily. Events might crop up that play to all SKS's strengths and allow him his chance to shine.
    He’s another one who’s really charismatic, surprisingly down to earth and very funny in private.

    If only he was like it in Public.

    So we’re told
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 37,412
    AnneJGP said:

    Leon said:

    Relatedly


    Telegraph breaking:


    “Starmer was shown proof of Mandelson and Epstein’s close friendship”

    This will go on and on and on. Until Starmer quits

    Not necessarily. Events might crop up that play to all SKS's strengths and allow him his chance to shine.
    Yes, but I have found the tiniest of flaws in your narrative.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 57,804
    edited 2:54PM
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Leon said:

    Relatedly


    Telegraph breaking:


    “Starmer was shown proof of Mandelson and Epstein’s close friendship”

    This will go on and on and on. Until Starmer quits

    There is nothing new that is killer there. But it circles back to again Starmer was shown evidence of Mandy staying in Epstein's NY residence while he was in jail. Mr Forensic obviously missed that bit just like the previous time the FT brought it to his attention.
    I mean...in what parallel universe is it politically acceptable to stay in the home of a prolific paedo while he serves his time out? Go on, make an acceptable case in 120 characters or less.

    Knowing that, Starmer should just have put a BIG RED LINE through Mandelson's name. That he didn't is why he will walk the plank.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 66,502
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Leon said:

    Relatedly


    Telegraph breaking:


    “Starmer was shown proof of Mandelson and Epstein’s close friendship”

    This will go on and on and on. Until Starmer quits

    There is nothing new that is killer there. But it circles back to again Starmer was shown evidence of Mandy staying in Epstein's NY residence while he was in jail. Mr Forensic obviously missed that bit just like the previous time the FT brought it to his attention.
    For sure

    But it’s the slow endless bleed that will kill him. And I don’t see it stopping. There are 3 million pages in the Epstein files? And apparently more to come? And WhatsApp messages from Labour ministers and blah de blah

    It’s a chronic pain not an acute illness, but in the end you just want the pain to stop
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 57,479
    I bet Starmer wishes the worst thing he had to apologise for was lobbying for Alaa Abd el-Fattah to be brought to Britain.
  • DumbosaurusDumbosaurus Posts: 1,005
    MarqueeMark said:

    The pb predictions competition demonstrates that a week is a long time in politics.

    And also why if you're going to play, enter on 31 January.

    (Also, if you're gonna play, you should make some extreme predictions. There's no glory in second place).
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 37,412
    edited 3:01PM
    MarqueeMark said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Leon said:

    Relatedly


    Telegraph breaking:


    “Starmer was shown proof of Mandelson and Epstein’s close friendship”

    This will go on and on and on. Until Starmer quits

    There is nothing new that is killer there. But it circles back to again Starmer was shown evidence of Mandy staying in Epstein's NY residence while he was in jail. Mr Forensic obviously missed that bit just like the previous time the FT brought it to his attention.
    I mean...in what parallel universe is it politically acceptable to stay in the home of a prolific paedo while he serves his time out? Go on, make an acceptable case in 120 characters or less.

    Knowing that, Starmer should just have put a BIG RED LINE through Mandelson's name. That he didn't is why he will walk the plank.

    Yes he should have drawn a Sharpie through Mandelson's name, putting Sharpie lines through the name of friends of Epstein is quite a thing these days, and this is why I believe he will go. But remember it wasn't just Starmer who thought he had completed a masterful stroke of genius in appointing Mandelson. Gove and Farage were also in awe of Starmer's ballsy gamble.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 57,804
    Dumbosaurus said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    The pb predictions competition demonstrates that a week is a long time in politics.

    And also why if you're going to play, enter on 31 January.

    (Also, if you're gonna play, you should make some extreme predictions. There's no glory in second place).
    In my defence, they don't come more extreme than Scotland winning the World Cup!
  • LeonLeon Posts: 66,502
    If you bet against this outcome - Starmer exiting this year - remember you are betting against the Wisdom of Crowds. And, as Sir Francis Galton noted, that is generally a bad move
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 15,235
    MarqueeMark said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Leon said:

    Relatedly


    Telegraph breaking:


    “Starmer was shown proof of Mandelson and Epstein’s close friendship”

    This will go on and on and on. Until Starmer quits

    There is nothing new that is killer there. But it circles back to again Starmer was shown evidence of Mandy staying in Epstein's NY residence while he was in jail. Mr Forensic obviously missed that bit just like the previous time the FT brought it to his attention.
    I mean...in what parallel universe is it politically acceptable to stay in the home of a prolific paedo while he serves his time out? Go on, make an acceptable case in 120 characters or less.

    Knowing that, Starmer should just have put a BIG RED LINE through Mandelson's name. That he didn't is why he will walk the plank.
    Or indeed that the paedo had used his connection with Mandelson to set up a meeting with him and the then Chancellor of the Exchequer and that this presented no issues in making him Ambassador
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 57,804
    AnneJGP said:

    Leon said:

    Relatedly


    Telegraph breaking:


    “Starmer was shown proof of Mandelson and Epstein’s close friendship”

    This will go on and on and on. Until Starmer quits

    Not necessarily. Events might crop up that play to all SKS's strengths and allow him his chance to shine.
    Yes, he MIGHT become a great war leader.

    Might.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 32,018
    FPT
    Taz said:

    Dopermean said:

    williamglenn said:

    Interesting focus group commissioned by Cummings. There's more at the link so I'll just paste a few points that stand out:

    https://x.com/Dominic2306/status/2021148424188395809

    * They hate Westminster and both parties more than ever. 'It's like they hate us' is a common view.

    * Voters greatly UNDER-estimate the scale of immigration by ~5-30X, contrary to the conventional wisdom. They are already angry about the immigration farce of Tories and Labour before they are given the real numbers. So there is huge scope for *much greater hatred for the old parties* and much more support for *much tougher action*. Millions of LAB voters want much tougher action on immigration than Tories like Gawke and Barwell.

    *They HATE HATE HATE the utility companies - the hate is the same across CON/LAB/REF etc. This is an open goal for all political entrepreneurs.

    *Voters are much more angry about benefit scams than MPs of any party. This issue seems less polarised than immigration.

    *Voters have few views on Kemi because they ignore the Tories because ‘they’re just not relevant any more’. They know nothing she's said or done. 'Useless but irrelevant'.

    Focus group commissioned by Cummings is all you need to know about that.
    It was conducted by Merlin Strategy, a member of the BPC. I thought members of the BPC were afforded respect here

    Are you doubting their integrity.

    Just because you may not like who commissioned it does not make it wrong.

    I’ve read the whole Cummings post and find the attitudes of the people in the focus group hard to disagree with (with a few exceptions)

    https://x.com/scarlett__mag/status/2021175705782862320?s=61
    I think some of it is problematic. For example the question around immigration asks the surveyees to estimate emigration since January 2021, and then pivots it to 'Conservative and Labour have not done enough', whilst afaics not mentioning that net immigration is 80% down between summer 2023 and summer 2025 in either the question or the twitter essay.

    There's more detail on Dom's substack:
    https://dominiccummings.substack.com/p/regime-change-2026-29-results-from

    I hope that BPC standards are such that that is not up to scratch. I wonder if the attitudes would be the same had they asked for estimates of immigration since summer 2024 or in the last 12 months.

    In reality net immigration is back to what it was before the post-Brexit hump, and some are trying politically to keep it central beyond its sell-by date.

    (I'm not commenting on Merlin Strategy, run by Scarlett Maguire; I don't know enough to comment.)

  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 2,275
    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    gettingbetter said:

    One has to think it is good value to bet on him to still be leader. How could Reform voters be more correct than those of any other party?

    Yeah this is what jumped out at me. Reform voters tend to be wrong about everything, this is why they are always so angry.
    I thought it was because despite getting what they wanted they'd worse off than before
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 36,683
    In todays Guardian there's an article headlined 'Spanish is clearly now the world’s coolest language. So why do we push children to learn French?'
    The writer points out that Spanish is much more useful than French.
    When I was at secondary school we did French and Latin in the first year, then added either German or Spanish in the second. In the fourth year if one did Science, as I did, one dropped Latin.
    I did German because I (and my father) thought it was 'the language of science'.
    I'm sure I'd have been better off doing Spanish.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 22,126
    Leon said:

    Relatedly


    Telegraph breaking:


    “Starmer was shown proof of Mandelson and Epstein’s close friendship”

    This will go on and on and on. Until Starmer quits

    If you haven't noticed the Telegraph have run similar articles for the same purpose for a year and a half. It is nothing if not predictable. It is just a dull paper
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 22,376
    Taz said:

    AnneJGP said:

    Leon said:

    Relatedly


    Telegraph breaking:


    “Starmer was shown proof of Mandelson and Epstein’s close friendship”

    This will go on and on and on. Until Starmer quits

    Not necessarily. Events might crop up that play to all SKS's strengths and allow him his chance to shine.
    He’s another one who’s really charismatic, surprisingly down to earth and very funny in private.

    If only he was like it in Public.

    So we’re told
    There are a lot of people like that. Or, at least, the only people willing to be their friends are the small minority who find their sense of humour amusing.

    I mean, even I make my wife laugh frequently, which only goes to show that I am very lucky to have found my wife.

    So I don't doubt it's true that the people who are friends with Starmer find him charismatic and funny in private. It would be a bit weird if they were his friends if they found him tedious and boring (like the rest of the world).

    A politician needs to have a broader appeal.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,933
    Mexicanpete said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Leon said:

    Relatedly


    Telegraph breaking:


    “Starmer was shown proof of Mandelson and Epstein’s close friendship”

    This will go on and on and on. Until Starmer quits

    There is nothing new that is killer there. But it circles back to again Starmer was shown evidence of Mandy staying in Epstein's NY residence while he was in jail. Mr Forensic obviously missed that bit just like the previous time the FT brought it to his attention.
    I mean...in what parallel universe is it politically acceptable to stay in the home of a prolific paedo while he serves his time out? Go on, make an acceptable case in 120 characters or less.

    Knowing that, Starmer should just have put a BIG RED LINE through Mandelson's name. That he didn't is why he will walk the plank.

    Yes he should and this is why I believe he should go. But remember it wasn't just Starmer who thought he had completed a masterful stroke of genius in appointing Mandelson. Gove and Farage were also in awe of Starmer's ballsy gamble.
    Streeting obviously agreed too, because later when the emails came out that eventually caused Starmer to sack Mandelson in September 2025, Streeting still went on the record arguing that Mandelson should stay in post.
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,730
    Roger said:


    Leon said:

    Relatedly


    Telegraph breaking:


    “Starmer was shown proof of Mandelson and Epstein’s close friendship”

    This will go on and on and on. Until Starmer quits

    If you haven't noticed the Telegraph have run similar articles for the same purpose for a year and a half. It is nothing if not predictable. It is just a dull paper
    Read the Guardian then Roger?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 32,018
    edited 3:03PM
    Also on Merlin Strategy, here is Scarlett Maguire at the Battle of Ideas for 6 minutes on current polling in December 2025:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I3wbP6WJPkg

    (Quite interesting)

    "Labour lead amongst those who went to private schools":
    https://youtu.be/I3wbP6WJPkg?t=254
  • LeonLeon Posts: 66,502
    Mexicanpete said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Leon said:

    Relatedly


    Telegraph breaking:


    “Starmer was shown proof of Mandelson and Epstein’s close friendship”

    This will go on and on and on. Until Starmer quits

    There is nothing new that is killer there. But it circles back to again Starmer was shown evidence of Mandy staying in Epstein's NY residence while he was in jail. Mr Forensic obviously missed that bit just like the previous time the FT brought it to his attention.
    I mean...in what parallel universe is it politically acceptable to stay in the home of a prolific paedo while he serves his time out? Go on, make an acceptable case in 120 characters or less.

    Knowing that, Starmer should just have put a BIG RED LINE through Mandelson's name. That he didn't is why he will walk the plank.

    Yes he should and this is why I believe he should go. But remember it wasn't just Starmer who thought he had completed a masterful stroke of genius in appointing Mandelson. Gove and Farage were also in awe of Starmer's ballsy gamble.
    It’s a fair point, but no one has ever accused Nigel Farage of being “forensic”, And yet that was the epithet constantly applied to Skyr. He was gonna be “forensic”. He was gonna bring astute political judgment and that forensic analysis into government. FORENSIC

    So he forensically decided to make the best friend of a convicted child rapist the UK ambassador to Washington

    FORENSIC
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 37,412
    Roger said:


    Leon said:

    Relatedly


    Telegraph breaking:


    “Starmer was shown proof of Mandelson and Epstein’s close friendship”

    This will go on and on and on. Until Starmer quits

    If you haven't noticed the Telegraph have run similar articles for the same purpose for a year and a half. It is nothing if not predictable. It is just a dull paper
    Have you seen some of their bark-at-the-moon contributors?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 57,479
    Roger said:


    Leon said:

    Relatedly


    Telegraph breaking:


    “Starmer was shown proof of Mandelson and Epstein’s close friendship”

    This will go on and on and on. Until Starmer quits

    If you haven't noticed the Telegraph have run similar articles for the same purpose for a year and a half. It is nothing if not predictable. It is just a dull paper
    Didn’t Mandelson himself characterise the Epstein story as just an FT obsession and told them to fuck off?
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 18,677
    This is all entirely above board and totally normal...

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/zacheverson/2026/02/09/trump-stablecoin-usd1-binance-holds-87-percent/

    Binance—Whose Founder Was Pardoned—Now Holds 87% Of Trump’s Stablecoin
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 7,490
    ozymandias said:

    Roger said:


    Leon said:

    Relatedly


    Telegraph breaking:


    “Starmer was shown proof of Mandelson and Epstein’s close friendship”

    This will go on and on and on. Until Starmer quits

    If you haven't noticed the Telegraph have run similar articles for the same purpose for a year and a half. It is nothing if not predictable. It is just a dull paper
    Read the Guardian then Roger?
    Everything comes to him.who waits. Maybe the Telegraph will have its day...
  • occasionalranteroccasionalranter Posts: 800
    AnneJGP said:

    Leon said:

    Relatedly


    Telegraph breaking:


    “Starmer was shown proof of Mandelson and Epstein’s close friendship”

    This will go on and on and on. Until Starmer quits

    Not necessarily. Events might crop up that play to all SKS's strengths and allow him his chance to shine.
    A strong showing at this year's court bundle paginating championships, or Cabinet Office's "best punctuated memo of the week" certificate ?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 36,683
    squareroot2 said:

    ozymandias said:

    Roger said:


    Leon said:

    Relatedly


    Telegraph breaking:


    “Starmer was shown proof of Mandelson and Epstein’s close friendship”

    This will go on and on and on. Until Starmer quits

    If you haven't noticed the Telegraph have run similar articles for the same purpose for a year and a half. It is nothing if not predictable. It is just a dull paper
    Read the Guardian then Roger?
    Everything comes to him.who waits. Maybe the Telegraph will have its day...
    Maybe it's had it.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 37,412
    edited 3:14PM
    williamglenn said:

    Roger said:


    Leon said:

    Relatedly


    Telegraph breaking:


    “Starmer was shown proof of Mandelson and Epstein’s close friendship”

    This will go on and on and on. Until Starmer quits

    If you haven't noticed the Telegraph have run similar articles for the same purpose for a year and a half. It is nothing if not predictable. It is just a dull paper
    Didn’t Mandelson himself characterise the Epstein story as just an FT obsession and told them to fuck off?
    He did and I hope you apply your absolutely relevant critique to other entrants in the Epstein files who claim the Epstein story is irrelevant nonsense.

    Anyway, we could all get to the bottom of who did what by asking Jeffrey himself. He is apparently wandering around Tel Aviv with his two minders as I write.

    https://youtube.com/shorts/H5dDMbgoOvQ?si=YLnq2dljrskRa6yB
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 126,277
    Leon said:

    If you bet against this outcome - Starmer exiting this year - remember you are betting against the Wisdom of Crowds. And, as Sir Francis Galton noted, that is generally a bad move

    The wisdom of the crowds said Labour/Ed Miliband would win the 2015 GE.

    ICM ran some polls on it.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 66,502
    MattW said:

    FPT

    Taz said:

    Dopermean said:

    williamglenn said:

    Interesting focus group commissioned by Cummings. There's more at the link so I'll just paste a few points that stand out:

    https://x.com/Dominic2306/status/2021148424188395809

    * They hate Westminster and both parties more than ever. 'It's like they hate us' is a common view.

    * Voters greatly UNDER-estimate the scale of immigration by ~5-30X, contrary to the conventional wisdom. They are already angry about the immigration farce of Tories and Labour before they are given the real numbers. So there is huge scope for *much greater hatred for the old parties* and much more support for *much tougher action*. Millions of LAB voters want much tougher action on immigration than Tories like Gawke and Barwell.

    *They HATE HATE HATE the utility companies - the hate is the same across CON/LAB/REF etc. This is an open goal for all political entrepreneurs.

    *Voters are much more angry about benefit scams than MPs of any party. This issue seems less polarised than immigration.

    *Voters have few views on Kemi because they ignore the Tories because ‘they’re just not relevant any more’. They know nothing she's said or done. 'Useless but irrelevant'.

    Focus group commissioned by Cummings is all you need to know about that.
    It was conducted by Merlin Strategy, a member of the BPC. I thought members of the BPC were afforded respect here

    Are you doubting their integrity.

    Just because you may not like who commissioned it does not make it wrong.

    I’ve read the whole Cummings post and find the attitudes of the people in the focus group hard to disagree with (with a few exceptions)

    https://x.com/scarlett__mag/status/2021175705782862320?s=61
    I think some of it is problematic. For example the question around immigration asks the surveyees to estimate emigration since January 2021, and then pivots it to 'Conservative and Labour have not done enough', whilst afaics not mentioning that net immigration is 80% down between summer 2023 and summer 2025 in either the question or the twitter essay.

    There's more detail on Dom's substack:
    https://dominiccummings.substack.com/p/regime-change-2026-29-results-from

    I hope that BPC standards are such that that is not up to scratch. I wonder if the attitudes would be the same had they asked for estimates of immigration since summer 2024 or in the last 12 months.

    In reality net immigration is back to what it was before the post-Brexit hump, and some are trying politically to keep it central beyond its sell-by date.

    (I'm not commenting on Merlin Strategy, run by Scarlett Maguire; I don't know enough to comment.)

    You still don’t understand do you?

    The argument has gone beyond “immigration is too high” and on to “there are far too many immigrants HERE”

    So net migration could drop to zero and you’d still have an awful lot of people deeply concerned about “immigration” - amongst them the Home Secretary, who is promising to toughen up the laws on the right to remain in the UK for the Boriswave

    ie - people already HERE
  • Brixian59Brixian59 Posts: 298
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Leon said:

    Relatedly


    Telegraph breaking:


    “Starmer was shown proof of Mandelson and Epstein’s close friendship”

    This will go on and on and on. Until Starmer quits

    There is nothing new that is killer there. But it circles back to again Starmer was shown evidence of Mandy staying in Epstein's NY residence while he was in jail. Mr Forensic obviously missed that bit just like the previous time the FT brought it to his attention.
    Yawn

    Yawn

    Yawn

    Like Curry gate

    Yawn
  • TazTaz Posts: 24,773
    OldKingCole said:

    squareroot2 said:

    ozymandias said:

    Roger said:


    Leon said:

    Relatedly


    Telegraph breaking:


    “Starmer was shown proof of Mandelson and Epstein’s close friendship”

    This will go on and on and on. Until Starmer quits

    If you haven't noticed the Telegraph have run similar articles for the same purpose for a year and a half. It is nothing if not predictable. It is just a dull paper
    Read the Guardian then Roger?
    Everything comes to him.who waits. Maybe the Telegraph will have its day...
    Maybe it's had it.
    Has its ownership been resolved yet ?
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 18,677
    Trump's Commerce Secretary Lutnick finally under some pressure for his connections to Epstein. He met with Epstein in 2012, so after Epstein was first convicted. He is insisting it was a one-off:

    https://bsky.app/profile/atrupar.com/post/3meja72y2yk2c

    Not certain that "I don't recall why we did it" comes across as very convincing.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 17,731
    MattW said:

    Also on Merlin Strategy, here is Scarlett Maguire at the Battle of Ideas for 6 minutes on current polling in December 2025:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I3wbP6WJPkg

    (Quite interesting)

    "Labour lead amongst those who went to private schools":
    https://youtu.be/I3wbP6WJPkg?t=254

    7% of the population, that's a Scottish subsample kind of size... I'm not sure I trust that claim at all.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 66,502
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Leon said:

    If you bet against this outcome - Starmer exiting this year - remember you are betting against the Wisdom of Crowds. And, as Sir Francis Galton noted, that is generally a bad move

    The wisdom of the crowds said Labour/Ed Miliband would win the 2015 GE.

    ICM ran some polls on it.
    That’s probably why the great Francis Galton called it “the wisdom of crowds” and not “the infallibility of crowds”
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 18,677
    bondegezou said:

    Trump's Commerce Secretary Lutnick finally under some pressure for his connections to Epstein. He met with Epstein in 2012, so after Epstein was first convicted. He is insisting it was a one-off:

    https://bsky.app/profile/atrupar.com/post/3meja72y2yk2c

    Not certain that "I don't recall why we did it" comes across as very convincing.

    Part 2: https://bsky.app/profile/atrupar.com/post/3mejahayaws2c
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 86,248
    bondegezou said:

    This is all entirely above board and totally normal...

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/zacheverson/2026/02/09/trump-stablecoin-usd1-binance-holds-87-percent/

    Binance—Whose Founder Was Pardoned—Now Holds 87% Of Trump’s Stablecoin

    The USP of crypto is to facilitate plausibly (very loosely defined) deniable bribes and large scale money laundering.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 69,626
    Poll on the King's Andrew problem

    https://news.sky.com/story/majority-of-people-think-the-king-should-encourage-andrew-to-testify-about-epstein-poll-13505704
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 57,479
    https://x.com/politlcsuk/status/2021235147253731615

    BREAKING: Keir Starmer declares he is "never giving up"

    "I will never walk away from the mandate I was given to change this country. I will never walk away from the people that I'm charged with fighting for. And I will never walk away from the country that I love"
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 86,248
    Leon said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Leon said:

    If you bet against this outcome - Starmer exiting this year - remember you are betting against the Wisdom of Crowds. And, as Sir Francis Galton noted, that is generally a bad move

    The wisdom of the crowds said Labour/Ed Miliband would win the 2015 GE.

    ICM ran some polls on it.
    That’s probably why the great Francis Galton called it “the wisdom of crowds” and not “the infallibility of crowds”
    I doubt it, the great Ed not being around during his lifetime.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 66,502
    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    MattW said:

    Also on Merlin Strategy, here is Scarlett Maguire at the Battle of Ideas for 6 minutes on current polling in December 2025:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I3wbP6WJPkg

    (Quite interesting)

    "Labour lead amongst those who went to private schools":
    https://youtu.be/I3wbP6WJPkg?t=254

    7% of the population, that's a Scottish subsample kind of size... I'm not sure I trust that claim at all.
    The most quintessentially “public school person” on here is the slow witted Millfield alumnus and retired tampon ad executive @Roger

    And whatever his faults, such as possessing the IQ of a daffodil, Roger has been loyally Labour throughout his PB years

    So maybe the polling is right
  • LeonLeon Posts: 66,502
    williamglenn said:

    https://x.com/politlcsuk/status/2021235147253731615

    BREAKING: Keir Starmer declares he is "never giving up"

    "I will never walk away from the mandate I was given to change this country. I will never walk away from the people that I'm charged with fighting for. And I will never walk away from the country that I love"

    Cringe Factor Forty
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 57,736
    williamglenn said:

    https://x.com/politlcsuk/status/2021235147253731615

    BREAKING: Keir Starmer declares he is "never giving up"

    "I will never walk away from the mandate I was given to change this country. I will never walk away from the people that I'm charged with fighting for. And I will never walk away from the country that I love"

    "Never gonna give you up!"
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 15,235
    edited 3:31PM
    No medal in curling,
    GB loves that fourth place
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 17,731
    Leon said:

    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    MattW said:

    Also on Merlin Strategy, here is Scarlett Maguire at the Battle of Ideas for 6 minutes on current polling in December 2025:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I3wbP6WJPkg

    (Quite interesting)

    "Labour lead amongst those who went to private schools":
    https://youtu.be/I3wbP6WJPkg?t=254

    7% of the population, that's a Scottish subsample kind of size... I'm not sure I trust that claim at all.
    The most quintessentially “public school person” on here is the slow witted Millfield alumnus and retired tampon ad executive @Roger

    And whatever his faults, such as possessing the IQ of a daffodil, Roger has been loyally Labour throughout his PB years

    So maybe the polling is right
    Nah, apart from you the PB rightist contingent has strong 'minor public school' vibes.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 16,832
    Leon said:

    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    MattW said:

    Also on Merlin Strategy, here is Scarlett Maguire at the Battle of Ideas for 6 minutes on current polling in December 2025:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I3wbP6WJPkg

    (Quite interesting)

    "Labour lead amongst those who went to private schools":
    https://youtu.be/I3wbP6WJPkg?t=254

    7% of the population, that's a Scottish subsample kind of size... I'm not sure I trust that claim at all.
    The most quintessentially “public school person” on here is the slow witted Millfield alumnus and retired tampon ad executive @Roger

    And whatever his faults, such as possessing the IQ of a daffodil, Roger has been loyally Labour throughout his PB years

    So maybe the polling is right
    This feels right to me. I know a fair few people who went to private school and they range from middling Lib Dems through establishment Labour to Corbynite Labour. One or two Tories but very much a minority.
  • occasionalranteroccasionalranter Posts: 800
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://x.com/politlcsuk/status/2021235147253731615

    BREAKING: Keir Starmer declares he is "never giving up"

    "I will never walk away from the mandate I was given to change this country. I will never walk away from the people that I'm charged with fighting for. And I will never walk away from the country that I love"

    "Never gonna give you up!"
    The whole country has been rick-rolled.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 66,502
    edited 3:32PM
    Interesting that pundit Daniel Finkelstein thinks Big Dom’s analysis of the public mood is correct



  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 4,694
    williamglenn said:

    https://x.com/politlcsuk/status/2021235147253731615

    BREAKING: Keir Starmer declares he is "never giving up"

    "I will never walk away from the mandate I was given to change this country. I will never walk away from the people that I'm charged with fighting for. And I will never walk away from the country that I love"

    Wasn't Mrs Thatcher going to go on and on and on?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 32,018
    Starmer to exit in 2026 is currently at 1.48 on BFX.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 126,277
    occasionalranter said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://x.com/politlcsuk/status/2021235147253731615

    BREAKING: Keir Starmer declares he is "never giving up"

    "I will never walk away from the mandate I was given to change this country. I will never walk away from the people that I'm charged with fighting for. And I will never walk away from the country that I love"

    "Never gonna give you up!"
    The whole country has been rick-rolled.
    He took my advice, I told him to put in subtle 80s pop music references into his speeches and answers.
  • ManOfGwentManOfGwent Posts: 272
    williamglenn said:

    https://x.com/politlcsuk/status/2021235147253731615

    BREAKING: Keir Starmer declares he is "never giving up"

    "I will never walk away from the mandate I was given to change this country. I will never walk away from the people that I'm charged with fighting for. And I will never walk away from the country that I love"

    The problem with this is that Boris also had a big mandate given to him by the British people. Starmer and pretty much everyone else agreed that that mandate did not overrule what was seen and serious wrong doing and pushed hard for a resignation which inevitably came.
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 3,554
    Leon said:

    MattW said:

    FPT

    Taz said:

    Dopermean said:

    williamglenn said:

    Interesting focus group commissioned by Cummings. There's more at the link so I'll just paste a few points that stand out:

    https://x.com/Dominic2306/status/2021148424188395809

    * They hate Westminster and both parties more than ever. 'It's like they hate us' is a common view.

    * Voters greatly UNDER-estimate the scale of immigration by ~5-30X, contrary to the conventional wisdom. They are already angry about the immigration farce of Tories and Labour before they are given the real numbers. So there is huge scope for *much greater hatred for the old parties* and much more support for *much tougher action*. Millions of LAB voters want much tougher action on immigration than Tories like Gawke and Barwell.

    *They HATE HATE HATE the utility companies - the hate is the same across CON/LAB/REF etc. This is an open goal for all political entrepreneurs.

    *Voters are much more angry about benefit scams than MPs of any party. This issue seems less polarised than immigration.

    *Voters have few views on Kemi because they ignore the Tories because ‘they’re just not relevant any more’. They know nothing she's said or done. 'Useless but irrelevant'.

    Focus group commissioned by Cummings is all you need to know about that.
    It was conducted by Merlin Strategy, a member of the BPC. I thought members of the BPC were afforded respect here

    Are you doubting their integrity.

    Just because you may not like who commissioned it does not make it wrong.

    I’ve read the whole Cummings post and find the attitudes of the people in the focus group hard to disagree with (with a few exceptions)

    https://x.com/scarlett__mag/status/2021175705782862320?s=61
    I think some of it is problematic. For example the question around immigration asks the surveyees to estimate emigration since January 2021, and then pivots it to 'Conservative and Labour have not done enough', whilst afaics not mentioning that net immigration is 80% down between summer 2023 and summer 2025 in either the question or the twitter essay.

    There's more detail on Dom's substack:
    https://dominiccummings.substack.com/p/regime-change-2026-29-results-from

    I hope that BPC standards are such that that is not up to scratch. I wonder if the attitudes would be the same had they asked for estimates of immigration since summer 2024 or in the last 12 months.

    In reality net immigration is back to what it was before the post-Brexit hump, and some are trying politically to keep it central beyond its sell-by date.

    (I'm not commenting on Merlin Strategy, run by Scarlett Maguire; I don't know enough to comment.)

    You still don’t understand do you?

    The argument has gone beyond “immigration is too high” and on to “there are far too many immigrants HERE”

    So net migration could drop to zero and you’d still have an awful lot of people deeply concerned about “immigration” - amongst them the Home Secretary, who is promising to toughen up the laws on the right to remain in the UK for the Boriswave

    ie - people already HERE
    I read Dom's latest effusion, or at least tried to, (tbf, he is very thought-provoking) and one of his points about immigration is the number of incomers from the "very worst places", ie, Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, etc. Young men from war-torn countries with heritage views about women, religion, etc. By inference his point is if you import people from areas where radical Islamism is a thing, you are likely to be importing radical Islamism.

    He does have a point.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 40,482
    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    MattW said:

    Also on Merlin Strategy, here is Scarlett Maguire at the Battle of Ideas for 6 minutes on current polling in December 2025:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I3wbP6WJPkg

    (Quite interesting)

    "Labour lead amongst those who went to private schools":
    https://youtu.be/I3wbP6WJPkg?t=254

    7% of the population, that's a Scottish subsample kind of size... I'm not sure I trust that claim at all.
    The most quintessentially “public school person” on here is the slow witted Millfield alumnus and retired tampon ad executive @Roger

    And whatever his faults, such as possessing the IQ of a daffodil, Roger has been loyally Labour throughout his PB years

    So maybe the polling is right
    This feels right to me. I know a fair few people who went to private school and they range from middling Lib Dems through establishment Labour to Corbynite Labour. One or two Tories but very much a minority.
    Strange but true. Labour's support now runs at 40% + among the privately educated, according to Yougov. In fact, Labour poll best among the highest earners, Reform poll best among the lowest earners.

    We will see some decidedly odd results, at the next election.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 15,235
    edited 3:39PM
    Leon said:

    Interesting that pundit Daniel Finkelstein thinks Big Dom’s analysis of the public mood is correct



    The public are not a unified collective mind though.
    If we run a focus group amongst Teachers in Beckenham then its Labour landslide again. Ot here in the Broads its 100% a genteel bun fight whether Nigel or Kemi gets to protect our pensions and erect statues to Margaret

    'Disatisfied with the big 2 and pissed off' *shrugs*
  • LeonLeon Posts: 66,502
    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    MattW said:

    Also on Merlin Strategy, here is Scarlett Maguire at the Battle of Ideas for 6 minutes on current polling in December 2025:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I3wbP6WJPkg

    (Quite interesting)

    "Labour lead amongst those who went to private schools":
    https://youtu.be/I3wbP6WJPkg?t=254

    7% of the population, that's a Scottish subsample kind of size... I'm not sure I trust that claim at all.
    The most quintessentially “public school person” on here is the slow witted Millfield alumnus and retired tampon ad executive @Roger

    And whatever his faults, such as possessing the IQ of a daffodil, Roger has been loyally Labour throughout his PB years

    So maybe the polling is right
    This feels right to me. I know a fair few people who went to private school and they range from middling Lib Dems through establishment Labour to Corbynite Labour. One or two Tories but very much a minority.
    The large majority of my friends are private school boys and girls, it comes with the territory. Flint knapping is posh, etc

    I’m very much the exception as a comp lad

    I’d say they generally lean left, with some centrists and a few Tories. No surprise there. More interesting is the brisk move by several from mainstream Labour to the hard right in recent years - driven by Woke and immigration
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 89,945
    Lord Mandelson told a businessman linked to the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) he wanted to “meet people and network” away from British embassy aides on an official trip to Bejing.

    Emails released in a batch of three million Epstein files on Jan 30 suggest that Lord Mandelson deliberately wanted to shake off embassy handlers to meet high-level CCP officials.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/us/politics/2026/02/10/mandelson-british-diplomats-networking-beijing/
  • MattWMattW Posts: 32,018
    edited 3:39PM
    AnneJGP said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://x.com/politlcsuk/status/2021235147253731615

    BREAKING: Keir Starmer declares he is "never giving up"

    "I will never walk away from the mandate I was given to change this country. I will never walk away from the people that I'm charged with fighting for. And I will never walk away from the country that I love"

    Wasn't Mrs Thatcher going to go on and on and on?
    On that subject, a classic Ariston and on and on advert:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YUVs7vXNZiw
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 57,479
    ManOfGwent said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://x.com/politlcsuk/status/2021235147253731615

    BREAKING: Keir Starmer declares he is "never giving up"

    "I will never walk away from the mandate I was given to change this country. I will never walk away from the people that I'm charged with fighting for. And I will never walk away from the country that I love"

    The problem with this is that Boris also had a big mandate given to him by the British people. Starmer and pretty much everyone else agreed that that mandate did not overrule what was seen and serious wrong doing and pushed hard for a resignation which inevitably came.
    Boris got 14m votes compared with 9.7m for Starmer, so he's starting from a much lower base to begin with, despite the big majority.
  • eekeek Posts: 32,530
    When the facts change, most people will change their vote.

    On January 31st Peter Mandelson was just a dodgy former politician now he’s a former politician subject to criminal investigations for dodgy activities while in office (at best) and treason at worst.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 66,502
    Burgessian said:

    Leon said:

    MattW said:

    FPT

    Taz said:

    Dopermean said:

    williamglenn said:

    Interesting focus group commissioned by Cummings. There's more at the link so I'll just paste a few points that stand out:

    https://x.com/Dominic2306/status/2021148424188395809

    * They hate Westminster and both parties more than ever. 'It's like they hate us' is a common view.

    * Voters greatly UNDER-estimate the scale of immigration by ~5-30X, contrary to the conventional wisdom. They are already angry about the immigration farce of Tories and Labour before they are given the real numbers. So there is huge scope for *much greater hatred for the old parties* and much more support for *much tougher action*. Millions of LAB voters want much tougher action on immigration than Tories like Gawke and Barwell.

    *They HATE HATE HATE the utility companies - the hate is the same across CON/LAB/REF etc. This is an open goal for all political entrepreneurs.

    *Voters are much more angry about benefit scams than MPs of any party. This issue seems less polarised than immigration.

    *Voters have few views on Kemi because they ignore the Tories because ‘they’re just not relevant any more’. They know nothing she's said or done. 'Useless but irrelevant'.

    Focus group commissioned by Cummings is all you need to know about that.
    It was conducted by Merlin Strategy, a member of the BPC. I thought members of the BPC were afforded respect here

    Are you doubting their integrity.

    Just because you may not like who commissioned it does not make it wrong.

    I’ve read the whole Cummings post and find the attitudes of the people in the focus group hard to disagree with (with a few exceptions)

    https://x.com/scarlett__mag/status/2021175705782862320?s=61
    I think some of it is problematic. For example the question around immigration asks the surveyees to estimate emigration since January 2021, and then pivots it to 'Conservative and Labour have not done enough', whilst afaics not mentioning that net immigration is 80% down between summer 2023 and summer 2025 in either the question or the twitter essay.

    There's more detail on Dom's substack:
    https://dominiccummings.substack.com/p/regime-change-2026-29-results-from

    I hope that BPC standards are such that that is not up to scratch. I wonder if the attitudes would be the same had they asked for estimates of immigration since summer 2024 or in the last 12 months.

    In reality net immigration is back to what it was before the post-Brexit hump, and some are trying politically to keep it central beyond its sell-by date.

    (I'm not commenting on Merlin Strategy, run by Scarlett Maguire; I don't know enough to comment.)

    You still don’t understand do you?

    The argument has gone beyond “immigration is too high” and on to “there are far too many immigrants HERE”

    So net migration could drop to zero and you’d still have an awful lot of people deeply concerned about “immigration” - amongst them the Home Secretary, who is promising to toughen up the laws on the right to remain in the UK for the Boriswave

    ie - people already HERE
    I read Dom's latest effusion, or at least tried to, (tbf, he is very thought-provoking) and one of his points about immigration is the number of incomers from the "very worst places", ie, Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, etc. Young men from war-torn countries with heritage views about women, religion, etc. By inference his point is if you import people from areas where radical Islamism is a thing, you are likely to be importing radical Islamism.

    He does have a point.
    Well, yeah, derrrrrr

    Is this some amazing surprise to you? Who did you think we were importing from the Middle East? Lib Dem voting feminists?
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 15,235
    edited 3:42PM
    Sean_F said:

    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    MattW said:

    Also on Merlin Strategy, here is Scarlett Maguire at the Battle of Ideas for 6 minutes on current polling in December 2025:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I3wbP6WJPkg

    (Quite interesting)

    "Labour lead amongst those who went to private schools":
    https://youtu.be/I3wbP6WJPkg?t=254

    7% of the population, that's a Scottish subsample kind of size... I'm not sure I trust that claim at all.
    The most quintessentially “public school person” on here is the slow witted Millfield alumnus and retired tampon ad executive @Roger

    And whatever his faults, such as possessing the IQ of a daffodil, Roger has been loyally Labour throughout his PB years

    So maybe the polling is right
    This feels right to me. I know a fair few people who went to private school and they range from middling Lib Dems through establishment Labour to Corbynite Labour. One or two Tories but very much a minority.
    Strange but true. Labour's support now runs at 40% + among the privately educated, according to Yougov. In fact, Labour poll best among the highest earners, Reform poll best among the lowest earners.

    We will see some decidedly odd results, at the next election.
    There was a council result in Stevenage a while back that made me think 'Lab hold Stevenage and lose Birkenhead' or some such weirdness
  • FossFoss Posts: 2,387
    williamglenn said:

    ManOfGwent said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://x.com/politlcsuk/status/2021235147253731615

    BREAKING: Keir Starmer declares he is "never giving up"

    "I will never walk away from the mandate I was given to change this country. I will never walk away from the people that I'm charged with fighting for. And I will never walk away from the country that I love"

    The problem with this is that Boris also had a big mandate given to him by the British people. Starmer and pretty much everyone else agreed that that mandate did not overrule what was seen and serious wrong doing and pushed hard for a resignation which inevitably came.
    Boris got 14m votes compared with 9.7m for Starmer, so he's starting from a much lower base to begin with, despite the big majority.
    Forget Boris, Corbyn managed to get a half million more votes than Starmer.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 18,677
    ManOfGwent said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://x.com/politlcsuk/status/2021235147253731615

    BREAKING: Keir Starmer declares he is "never giving up"

    "I will never walk away from the mandate I was given to change this country. I will never walk away from the people that I'm charged with fighting for. And I will never walk away from the country that I love"

    The problem with this is that Boris also had a big mandate given to him by the British people. Starmer and pretty much everyone else agreed that that mandate did not overrule what was seen and serious wrong doing and pushed hard for a resignation which inevitably came.
    I voted against Starmer when I was in his constituency, but I find it hard to see Starmer's sins as matching Johnson's. Johnson broke the law, facilitated others breaking the law, and repeatedly lied to Parliament. Starmer appointed Mandelson as an ambassador while knowing he was friendly with Epstein, but Johnson appointed Pincher as a deputy whip while knowing about his history of sexual assault.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 77,566
    edited 3:43PM
    Leon said:

    Interesting that pundit Daniel Finkelstein thinks Big Dom’s analysis of the public mood is correct



    His analysis is usually fairly accurate.

    The issue is because it's quite superficial his solutions veer from the inane to the insane.
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 3,554
    Leon said:

    Burgessian said:

    Leon said:

    MattW said:

    FPT

    Taz said:

    Dopermean said:

    williamglenn said:

    Interesting focus group commissioned by Cummings. There's more at the link so I'll just paste a few points that stand out:

    https://x.com/Dominic2306/status/2021148424188395809

    * They hate Westminster and both parties more than ever. 'It's like they hate us' is a common view.

    * Voters greatly UNDER-estimate the scale of immigration by ~5-30X, contrary to the conventional wisdom. They are already angry about the immigration farce of Tories and Labour before they are given the real numbers. So there is huge scope for *much greater hatred for the old parties* and much more support for *much tougher action*. Millions of LAB voters want much tougher action on immigration than Tories like Gawke and Barwell.

    *They HATE HATE HATE the utility companies - the hate is the same across CON/LAB/REF etc. This is an open goal for all political entrepreneurs.

    *Voters are much more angry about benefit scams than MPs of any party. This issue seems less polarised than immigration.

    *Voters have few views on Kemi because they ignore the Tories because ‘they’re just not relevant any more’. They know nothing she's said or done. 'Useless but irrelevant'.

    Focus group commissioned by Cummings is all you need to know about that.
    It was conducted by Merlin Strategy, a member of the BPC. I thought members of the BPC were afforded respect here

    Are you doubting their integrity.

    Just because you may not like who commissioned it does not make it wrong.

    I’ve read the whole Cummings post and find the attitudes of the people in the focus group hard to disagree with (with a few exceptions)

    https://x.com/scarlett__mag/status/2021175705782862320?s=61
    I think some of it is problematic. For example the question around immigration asks the surveyees to estimate emigration since January 2021, and then pivots it to 'Conservative and Labour have not done enough', whilst afaics not mentioning that net immigration is 80% down between summer 2023 and summer 2025 in either the question or the twitter essay.

    There's more detail on Dom's substack:
    https://dominiccummings.substack.com/p/regime-change-2026-29-results-from

    I hope that BPC standards are such that that is not up to scratch. I wonder if the attitudes would be the same had they asked for estimates of immigration since summer 2024 or in the last 12 months.

    In reality net immigration is back to what it was before the post-Brexit hump, and some are trying politically to keep it central beyond its sell-by date.

    (I'm not commenting on Merlin Strategy, run by Scarlett Maguire; I don't know enough to comment.)

    You still don’t understand do you?

    The argument has gone beyond “immigration is too high” and on to “there are far too many immigrants HERE”

    So net migration could drop to zero and you’d still have an awful lot of people deeply concerned about “immigration” - amongst them the Home Secretary, who is promising to toughen up the laws on the right to remain in the UK for the Boriswave

    ie - people already HERE
    I read Dom's latest effusion, or at least tried to, (tbf, he is very thought-provoking) and one of his points about immigration is the number of incomers from the "very worst places", ie, Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, etc. Young men from war-torn countries with heritage views about women, religion, etc. By inference his point is if you import people from areas where radical Islamism is a thing, you are likely to be importing radical Islamism.

    He does have a point.
    Well, yeah, derrrrrr

    Is this some amazing surprise to you? Who did you think we were importing from the Middle East? Lib Dem voting feminists?
    Hah. I was explaining for the sake our colleagues. The pedagogue in me.

    Lib Dem voting feminists? I wonder where we could find some of those. Refugees from Trumpistan? A long way to paddle your boat, though.

  • FossFoss Posts: 2,387
    edited 3:51PM
    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    It is fascinating how the Epstein scandal is so far taking down Brits and leaving far more exposed Americans unscathed. Maxwell is the only one in jail - British. Poor old randy Andy - British. Mandelson - British. Starmer - British and never even met Epstein - under pressure to go.
    Meanwhile on the newswires we have Trump commerce secretary Howard Lutnick saying yes I went to Epstein Island, I don't remember why, but I did nothing wrong. He's going nowhere. Incredible, really.

    The Clinton involvement with Epstein means for the US it's closer to a case of mutually assured destruction than over here. Neither party wants that level of tarnish.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 66,502
    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    It is fascinating how the Epstein scandal is so far taking down Brits and leaving far more exposed Americans unscathed. Maxwell is the only one in jail - British. Poor old randy Andy - British. Mandelson - British. Starmer - British and never even met Epstein - under pressure to go.
    Meanwhile on the newswires we have Trump commerce secretary Howard Lutnick saying yes I went to Epstein Island, I don't remember why, but I did nothing wrong. He's going nowhere. Incredible, really.

    But it’s precisely BECAUSE Epstein enticed so many rich powerful American men, from both parties, and from all kinds of backgrounds - arts to law, science to golf, cinema to finance - that no American man has yet fallen. Because the entire elite is implicated and they are all desperately protecting each other. I’m sure Democrats would love to get Trump on his Epstein connections, but, oh dear, Bill Clinton. Etc
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 69,626
    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    It is fascinating how the Epstein scandal is so far taking down Brits and leaving far more exposed Americans unscathed. Maxwell is the only one in jail - British. Poor old randy Andy - British. Mandelson - British. Starmer - British and never even met Epstein - under pressure to go.
    Meanwhile on the newswires we have Trump commerce secretary Howard Lutnick saying yes I went to Epstein Island, I don't remember why, but I did nothing wrong. He's going nowhere. Incredible, really.

    I said exactly that to my good lady this morning

    Maybe that is a positive for our country and it's values
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 57,479
    Channel 4 is airing a three part documentary on Tony Blair next week.

    https://x.com/JohnRentoul/status/2021149738154762502
  • ManOfGwentManOfGwent Posts: 272
    bondegezou said:

    ManOfGwent said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://x.com/politlcsuk/status/2021235147253731615

    BREAKING: Keir Starmer declares he is "never giving up"

    "I will never walk away from the mandate I was given to change this country. I will never walk away from the people that I'm charged with fighting for. And I will never walk away from the country that I love"

    The problem with this is that Boris also had a big mandate given to him by the British people. Starmer and pretty much everyone else agreed that that mandate did not overrule what was seen and serious wrong doing and pushed hard for a resignation which inevitably came.
    I voted against Starmer when I was in his constituency, but I find it hard to see Starmer's sins as matching Johnson's. Johnson broke the law, facilitated others breaking the law, and repeatedly lied to Parliament. Starmer appointed Mandelson as an ambassador while knowing he was friendly with Epstein, but Johnson appointed Pincher as a deputy whip while knowing about his history of sexual assault.
    I would argue appointing someone the security services have concerns about to a highly sensitive diplomatic brief, with access to the most sensitive intelligence, at least matches Johnson's sins. All for what? AHH yeah he's a wrong un, but we need him to get close to a wrong un. It's abject dereliction of duty.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 77,566
    Burgessian said:

    Leon said:

    Burgessian said:

    Leon said:

    MattW said:

    FPT

    Taz said:

    Dopermean said:

    williamglenn said:

    Interesting focus group commissioned by Cummings. There's more at the link so I'll just paste a few points that stand out:

    https://x.com/Dominic2306/status/2021148424188395809

    * They hate Westminster and both parties more than ever. 'It's like they hate us' is a common view.

    * Voters greatly UNDER-estimate the scale of immigration by ~5-30X, contrary to the conventional wisdom. They are already angry about the immigration farce of Tories and Labour before they are given the real numbers. So there is huge scope for *much greater hatred for the old parties* and much more support for *much tougher action*. Millions of LAB voters want much tougher action on immigration than Tories like Gawke and Barwell.

    *They HATE HATE HATE the utility companies - the hate is the same across CON/LAB/REF etc. This is an open goal for all political entrepreneurs.

    *Voters are much more angry about benefit scams than MPs of any party. This issue seems less polarised than immigration.

    *Voters have few views on Kemi because they ignore the Tories because ‘they’re just not relevant any more’. They know nothing she's said or done. 'Useless but irrelevant'.

    Focus group commissioned by Cummings is all you need to know about that.
    It was conducted by Merlin Strategy, a member of the BPC. I thought members of the BPC were afforded respect here

    Are you doubting their integrity.

    Just because you may not like who commissioned it does not make it wrong.

    I’ve read the whole Cummings post and find the attitudes of the people in the focus group hard to disagree with (with a few exceptions)

    https://x.com/scarlett__mag/status/2021175705782862320?s=61
    I think some of it is problematic. For example the question around immigration asks the surveyees to estimate emigration since January 2021, and then pivots it to 'Conservative and Labour have not done enough', whilst afaics not mentioning that net immigration is 80% down between summer 2023 and summer 2025 in either the question or the twitter essay.

    There's more detail on Dom's substack:
    https://dominiccummings.substack.com/p/regime-change-2026-29-results-from

    I hope that BPC standards are such that that is not up to scratch. I wonder if the attitudes would be the same had they asked for estimates of immigration since summer 2024 or in the last 12 months.

    In reality net immigration is back to what it was before the post-Brexit hump, and some are trying politically to keep it central beyond its sell-by date.

    (I'm not commenting on Merlin Strategy, run by Scarlett Maguire; I don't know enough to comment.)

    You still don’t understand do you?

    The argument has gone beyond “immigration is too high” and on to “there are far too many immigrants HERE”

    So net migration could drop to zero and you’d still have an awful lot of people deeply concerned about “immigration” - amongst them the Home Secretary, who is promising to toughen up the laws on the right to remain in the UK for the Boriswave

    ie - people already HERE
    I read Dom's latest effusion, or at least tried to, (tbf, he is very thought-provoking) and one of his points about immigration is the number of incomers from the "very worst places", ie, Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, etc. Young men from war-torn countries with heritage views about women, religion, etc. By inference his point is if you import people from areas where radical Islamism is a thing, you are likely to be importing radical Islamism.

    He does have a point.
    Well, yeah, derrrrrr

    Is this some amazing surprise to you? Who did you think we were importing from the Middle East? Lib Dem voting feminists?
    Hah. I was explaining for the sake our colleagues. The pedagogue in me.

    Lib Dem voting feminists? I wonder where we could find some of those. Refugees from Trumpistan? A long way to paddle your boat, though.

    Must be quite a few in Japan.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 37,412
    The man with the second worst attendance record at the European Parliament wants to ban working from home.
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 3,554
    Leon said:

    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    It is fascinating how the Epstein scandal is so far taking down Brits and leaving far more exposed Americans unscathed. Maxwell is the only one in jail - British. Poor old randy Andy - British. Mandelson - British. Starmer - British and never even met Epstein - under pressure to go.
    Meanwhile on the newswires we have Trump commerce secretary Howard Lutnick saying yes I went to Epstein Island, I don't remember why, but I did nothing wrong. He's going nowhere. Incredible, really.

    But it’s precisely BECAUSE Epstein enticed so many rich powerful American men, from both parties, and from all kinds of backgrounds - arts to law, science to golf, cinema to finance - that no American man has yet fallen. Because the entire elite is implicated and they are all desperately protecting each other. I’m sure Democrats would love to get Trump on his Epstein connections, but, oh dear, Bill Clinton. Etc
    The worst that seems to have happened to any American is a bit of mild embarrassment (Bill Gates, Noam Chomsky) and George Mitchell having his name removed from a scholarship programme. All probably too old or rich to care very much.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 60,667
    Nigelb said:

    bondegezou said:

    This is all entirely above board and totally normal...

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/zacheverson/2026/02/09/trump-stablecoin-usd1-binance-holds-87-percent/

    Binance—Whose Founder Was Pardoned—Now Holds 87% Of Trump’s Stablecoin

    The USP of crypto is to facilitate plausibly (very loosely defined) deniable bribes and large scale money laundering.
    That’s not really true.

    While those are features, the main point is to fleece suckers with an asymmetrical market. So they can’t even escape during the dump of a pump-and-dump.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 37,412
    williamglenn said:

    Channel 4 is airing a three part documentary on Tony Blair next week.

    https://x.com/JohnRentoul/status/2021149738154762502

    So you are a fan.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 31,286
    edited 3:55PM
    Burgessian said:

    Leon said:

    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    It is fascinating how the Epstein scandal is so far taking down Brits and leaving far more exposed Americans unscathed. Maxwell is the only one in jail - British. Poor old randy Andy - British. Mandelson - British. Starmer - British and never even met Epstein - under pressure to go.
    Meanwhile on the newswires we have Trump commerce secretary Howard Lutnick saying yes I went to Epstein Island, I don't remember why, but I did nothing wrong. He's going nowhere. Incredible, really.

    But it’s precisely BECAUSE Epstein enticed so many rich powerful American men, from both parties, and from all kinds of backgrounds - arts to law, science to golf, cinema to finance - that no American man has yet fallen. Because the entire elite is implicated and they are all desperately protecting each other. I’m sure Democrats would love to get Trump on his Epstein connections, but, oh dear, Bill Clinton. Etc
    The worst that seems to have happened to any American is a bit of mild embarrassment (Bill Gates, Noam Chomsky) and George Mitchell having his name removed from a scholarship programme. All probably too old or rich to care very much.
    Or, in Chomsky's case, too dead.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 21,574
    wooliedyed said:

    Sean_F said:

    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    MattW said:

    Also on Merlin Strategy, here is Scarlett Maguire at the Battle of Ideas for 6 minutes on current polling in December 2025:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I3wbP6WJPkg

    (Quite interesting)

    "Labour lead amongst those who went to private schools":
    https://youtu.be/I3wbP6WJPkg?t=254

    7% of the population, that's a Scottish subsample kind of size... I'm not sure I trust that claim at all.
    The most quintessentially “public school person” on here is the slow witted Millfield alumnus and retired tampon ad executive @Roger

    And whatever his faults, such as possessing the IQ of a daffodil, Roger has been loyally Labour throughout his PB years

    So maybe the polling is right
    This feels right to me. I know a fair few people who went to private school and they range from middling Lib Dems through establishment Labour to Corbynite Labour. One or two Tories but very much a minority.
    Strange but true. Labour's support now runs at 40% + among the privately educated, according to Yougov. In fact, Labour poll best among the highest earners, Reform poll best among the lowest earners.

    We will see some decidedly odd results, at the next election.
    There was a council result in Stevenage a while back that made me think 'Lab hold Stevenage and lose Birkenhead' or some such weirdness
    Hence the psychodrama on the left.

    In the 20th century, there were barely enough places like Birkenhead, with the problems of Birkenhead, to sometimes deliver a Labour majority. As time has gone on, there are even fewer, so the opportunities are fewer. "Working people" in Britain today are much more like the people of Stevenage than the "beloved working class" of Lord Glasman's imagination.

    There's a weird paradox here- by largely winning the "how shall we live together" battles of the 20th century, if not in the way they wanted, old Labour won and lost. The People largely got the health, welfare and housing that they wanted; a win. But having won that fight, they became rather irrelevant.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 15,235
    edited 3:57PM
    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    Interesting that pundit Daniel Finkelstein thinks Big Dom’s analysis of the public mood is correct



    His analysis is usually fairly accurate.

    The issue is because it's quite superficial his solutions veer from the inane to the insane.
    He says these are the views of swing voters, the views to me suggest a group consisting broadly of 2019 Tory, 2024 Labour voters now considering Reform.
    Thats a plurality of the electorate but not a 2029 defining one.

    Its not really possible to properly 'weight' focus groups, but it doesnt matter as its not meant to be a poll, its feedback. Swing voters by their nature are more likely to be disatisfied. Thats why they swing .
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 31,286
    Foss said:

    williamglenn said:

    ManOfGwent said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://x.com/politlcsuk/status/2021235147253731615

    BREAKING: Keir Starmer declares he is "never giving up"

    "I will never walk away from the mandate I was given to change this country. I will never walk away from the people that I'm charged with fighting for. And I will never walk away from the country that I love"

    The problem with this is that Boris also had a big mandate given to him by the British people. Starmer and pretty much everyone else agreed that that mandate did not overrule what was seen and serious wrong doing and pushed hard for a resignation which inevitably came.
    Boris got 14m votes compared with 9.7m for Starmer, so he's starting from a much lower base to begin with, despite the big majority.
    Forget Boris, Corbyn managed to get a half million more votes than Starmer.
    3.2 million more in 2017.
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