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The next PM betting market in the last 48 hours – politicalbetting.com

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  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 36,683
    Morning all!

    I realise I'm late to the party but I thought Ed M dealt firmly and effectively with the BBC interviewer at 7.30am. Slapped him very firmly back in his box.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 26,179

    Several commentators have now said we’re going to see Starmer “unconstrained”. It’s really now or never then.

    Wunderbar

    We'l have lots of pointless laws needing more civil servants and bugger all on the economy and growth.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 86,248
    edited 9:53AM
    There is zero legal justification for any plea deal or non prosecution agreement which does not make public the names of those involved.
    Indeed the law requires that victims be notified.

    @PabloReports: What can you tell us about what you saw in the unredacted Epstein files?

    Khanna: Most of the unredacted files were redacted—70 to 80 percent. Massie and I saw that there were six men who were co‑conspirators and were being protected. Those names need to be made public. There’s no excuse for releasing survivors’ names while protecting these six men. There are probably more. In just two hours, we saw that these six men were being protected.

    https://x.com/Acyn/status/2021017533915304277

    The continuing redaction is also in defiance of the law passed by Congress to release this information.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 15,234

    I was just looking over some stuff for the May locals etc and thinking sbout how perception of the results impacts. Last year the Tories were defending pretty much all the county councils that were up and most councillors do the results looked like primarily Tory defeat - most councillors, councils etc lost. Accordingly the Tory VI in polling took a 4 or 5 poInt instant hit. Labour, whilst utterly drubbed, were only defending 280 or so wards. The analysis of what it would mean at a GE was apocalyptic for Labour and very bad for the Tories (but rather better than many of the subsequent MRPs suggested)

    This time its rather different. Ignoring Scot/Wales (they will speak for themselves). county wise we just have 2 Tory ones up - Essex and Hampshire. I expect them to lose both but to be doing better thsn last year they would be looking to stop Reform taking overall conttol in Essex and remaining largest party in a NOC Hampshire.
    Then we have London and the district/unitaries. Labour are defending 33 outside London and 21 in London and 2100 or so wards, the Tories defend 7 outside London (incl the counties), 5 in London and 900 or so wards.

    So, the story this time away from Ref, Green surging will be of Labour carnage and loss of councils (barring a miracle), theyll lose many more councils, councillors etc thsn the Tories (who will lose a lot - 300 councillors and half the councils?) Im not sure Labour can keep losses under 1000.

    So.... will it hit Labour's polling like 2025 did the Tories??

    It may also matter what is reported on the night and who's counting the next day. My London borough is counting the next day, for ex.
    Yep. Croydon last time in 2022 and the mayoralty/minority control was too late to cheer the Tories.
    Although in 2025 overnight it looked bleak but not apocalyptic for the Tories as they lost Northumberland but remained largest party. Then Lincolnshire started coming in in the morning..........
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 57,474
    MaxPB said:

    Reading the messages between Streeting and Mandelson is vomit inducing. I don't see how he becomes PM now, he's tainted even more than Starmer IMO having such a close friendship to Mandelson who we now know to have been trading price sensitive information for favours. That Streeting could be blinded by what seems like infatuation for Mandelson shows very, very poor character judgement and should bar him from becoming PM.

    I always thought his history of sending violent threats online would stop him. I'm surprised he's made it as far as he has.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 7,484
    Is it possible the polls are being sent to geeks.. hence the lack of movement. Everyone I know is appalled at what has gone on.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 7,484

    Cliche alert.

    Raynor is a case of turkeys voting for Xmas. Her basic instincts are thoroughly Corbynite and that would we exposed by being PM and in the full glare of media attention. Just like SKS is just so obviously a north London lawyer. But progressives are so self-congratulatory and inward looking these days they don't see it.

    I wonder whether this is Milliband's chance - he protesteth too much imho

    I see Ed Miliband as the steady pair of hands who can safely guide Labour to a respectable defeat and opposition.

    That's preferable to choosing someone who would blow everything up and put Labour in fifth, but are Labour yet reconciled to defeat at the next GE? I suspect not, and so I think someone else will be chosen.
    Ed Miliband would be a suicidal move
  • Several commentators have now said we’re going to see Starmer “unconstrained”. It’s really now or never then.

    Wunderbar

    We'l have lots of pointless laws needing more civil servants and bugger all on the economy and growth.
    Personally think it’s all nonsense and Starmer will regret not quitting yesterday.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 21,856

    Dopermean said:

    Morning all, YouGov unmoved by events
    Ref 27 (+1)
    Labour 19 (=)
    Con 18. (=)
    Grn 16 (-1)
    LD 14 (=)
    8-9 Feb

    Another poll with the Tories doing much worse than 2024, just imagine how bad it would be without Kemi Badenoch winning PMQs last week.
    Increasingly secure, comfortable(?), in her position but no more adept. Might be familiar enough by '29 to take enough votes off Reform to stop them breaking through on FPTP.
    150 to 175 seat strategy needs to be the Tories focus. They aren't forming a government in 2029, they need to ensure they are a strong(er) opposition to whatever weak minority or coalition emerges
    While there is merit in that idea, I think we are a long, long way out. I suspect Labour will get better, the Greens will wilt and as most people in this country abhor Farage and his racists, I think there will be considerable tactical voting against Reform.

    Where that puts the Tories? Who knows at this point. I think the first GE after a long period in office is always going to be tough.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 21,856
    Scott_xP said:

    @aakashgupta

    Ring paid somewhere between $8 and $10 million for a 30-second Super Bowl spot to tell 120 million viewers that their cameras now scan neighborhoods using AI.

    The math is wild. Ring has roughly 20 million devices in American homes. Search Party is enabled by default. The opt-out rate on default settings in consumer tech is historically around 5%. So approximately 19 million cameras are now running AI pattern matching on anything that moves past your front door. Today the target is dogs. The same infrastructure already handles “Familiar Faces,” which builds biometric profiles of every person your camera sees, whether they know about it or not.

    Ring settled with the FTC for $5.8 million after employees had unrestricted access to customers’ bedroom and bathroom footage for years. They’re now partnered with Flock Safety, which routes footage to local law enforcement. ICE has accessed Flock data through local police departments acting as intermediaries. Senator Markey’s investigation found Ring’s privacy protections only apply to device owners. If you’re a neighbor, a delivery driver, a passerby, you have no rights and no recourse.

    This tells you everything about Amazon’s actual product. The customer paid for the camera. The customer pays the electricity. The customer pays the $3.99/month subscription. And Amazon gets a surveillance grid that would cost tens of billions to build from scratch, with an AI layer activated by default, and a law enforcement pipeline already connected.

    They wrapped all of that in a lost puppy commercial because that’s the only version of this story anyone would willingly opt into.

    https://x.com/aakashgupta/status/2021097860490723535?s=20

    Is it though? What of a lost child? Or hunting a rapist/murderer in the style of the Sarah Everard case?

    Not everyone feels the same way about CCTV etc.
  • Brixian59Brixian59 Posts: 298
    I am convinced that yesterday saw 4 things baked in for the next 5 months

    1 a shellacking in upcoming elections with a best expectation of 3td in Wales and Scotland, 2nd more likely 3rd in Gorton, and 3rd in local council elections.

    If Labour beat Tories in each of those the Tories will be looking for a new Leader before Labour are.

    2 a new team around Starmer and clear evidence from Starmer that he will have a far more open door relationship with the PLP.

    The replacements for Comms and Wormold should reflect this.

    I think the quick promotion of 2 ladies who are both respected and on situ so to speak is seen as a positive

    3 I expect a reshuffle b4 the summer break

    I expect Rayner to come back in one of her old roles not all though, Haigh to get a junior Ministerial role and Powell to get a full cabinet role.

    I think the current improvement in inflation, interest rate and growth could save Rachel in the medium term to soothe the markets who do like her general direction of travel

    I think Lammy and Kendall are most at risk

    4. I suspect the Party needs to see a poll uptick on opinion polls between May and July and what happens to the Tories will be key.

    If they have 3 months of more in fighting after a bigger election shellacking than Labour, then Starmer will be trusted to see the Party through the year to see what evolves
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 26,179

    Several commentators have now said we’re going to see Starmer “unconstrained”. It’s really now or never then.

    Wunderbar

    We'l have lots of pointless laws needing more civil servants and bugger all on the economy and growth.
    Personally think it’s all nonsense and Starmer will regret not quitting yesterday.
    The whole government should go, they have no ideas, no guiding philosophy no ability to do anything.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 57,474
    edited 10:00AM

    Cliche alert.

    Raynor is a case of turkeys voting for Xmas. Her basic instincts are thoroughly Corbynite and that would we exposed by being PM and in the full glare of media attention. Just like SKS is just so obviously a north London lawyer. But progressives are so self-congratulatory and inward looking these days they don't see it.

    I wonder whether this is Milliband's chance - he protesteth too much imho

    I see Ed Miliband as the steady pair of hands who can safely guide Labour to a respectable defeat and opposition.

    That's preferable to choosing someone who would blow everything up and put Labour in fifth, but are Labour yet reconciled to defeat at the next GE? I suspect not, and so I think someone else will be chosen.
    Ed Miliband would be a suicidal move
    If anyone is Labour's Liz Truss, it's Ed Miliband. He's away with the fairies.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 15,234

    Is it possible the polls are being sent to geeks.. hence the lack of movement. Everyone I know is appalled at what has gone on.

    The government are 25 to 30 points behind a broadly defined 'right' - they were 5 points behind this 'right' at the GE
    The current polling is the equivalent of high 40s to mid 20s Lab vs Con 2019 to 2024
    Ergo i put it to you Labour are slightly better off than the Tories immediately post Mini Budget
    The split right hides Labours shame
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 2,275
    Nigelb said:

    theProle said:

    Nigelb said:

    Why is John Healey not higher? As an outsider to Labour, I'd be expecting him to be a far better candidate than those ahead of him.

    Because Labour don't need a caretaker while they're in government.

    What is his USP ?
    His USP is Adult In The Room.
    Not much point when all the back benchers and half the cabinet act like spolit children denied another sweet every time the leadership tries to do anything remotely adult.
    Adult In The Room - wasn’t Sir Britas supposed to be that?

    Or did that memo never cross his desk?
    "Adult in the room", as Dura suggests, simply means so boring that no one has yet noticed who they are, so vaguely positive aspirations can be superimposed on them.

    Put them in the spotlight, though, and they become "our worst ever"...

    I can't help but feel - given how Starmer hasn't broken the law like Johnson or tanked the economy like Truss - how much this reflects, in part, the extent the UK right-wing media still holds sway over British opinion. Sure, he's an unremarkable PM, but the worst? Really?
    https://x.com/iainoverton/status/2020996418500989109
    We covered that a few days ago with an insider's perspectiveI think?
    "Leon, I want 1500 words on how awful Kier Starmer is by Friday"
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 22,367
    Nigelb said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Why is John Healey not higher? As an outsider to Labour, I'd be expecting him to be a far better candidate than those ahead of him.

    Healey is the sensible choice for the country.

    Which means that Labour MPs and Labour members will have no interest in nominating him.

    Keeping Starmer in place is preferable to replacing him with Miliband or Rayner.
    In what respect is Healey greatly different from Starmer ?
    I've nothing against the guy, but I'm unaware of any notable achievements.

    And it's time for a reminder that the Defence Review was published at the beginning of June last year.
    The Defence Investment Plan, intended to set out spending priorities for the next decade, was due last autumn. Still crickets.
    He's just Baldy Ben with a less catastrophic cholesterol level, presiding over the same torpor and dysfunction at the MoD.

    Why he's anybody's idea of a PM is beyond me. Labour's challenge is to sell occasionally unpalatable reform to the MPs and then sell it again to the electorate as what they need and want. That takes a big personality and some degree of personal charm. Healey has the personality and charm of a Minecraft Creeper so we can cross him off.
    Little Tom Tugendhat has a recent series of substance articles which suggests he's actually thinking seriously about our future defence priorities.
    Here's one.
    https://thereset63.substack.com/p/eight-days-then-its-over
    I'm not particularly concerned about Britain having low stockpiles of munitions. I'd hope most munitions production was focused on supplying Ukraine rather than filling warehouses in Britain.

    That increased spending on nuclear weapons is more than consuming the modest increases in defence spending is concerning, though. Forget about Healy becoming PM. He ought to have resigned rather than accept such a budget settlement. In the current geopolitical circumstances it is suicidal to be reducing spending on conventional military capability.

    I thought the situation was that Britain was moving in the right direction, but too slowly. It is so much worse than that.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 63,507

    HYUFD said:

    Rayner coming out behind Starmer along with most of the Cabinet and more strongly than Streeting, whose Mandelson emails were in the news yesterday probably boosts her a bit in the next PM stakes. However after Cabinet support and a good PLP meeting yesterday Starmer is likely at least secure until the May local and devolved elections and beyond if Labour beat the Tories for second

    It will be interesting to see how loyal the Cabinet remain if Labour get a shellacking in Gorton and Denton and in the May elections. If I wanted to be the new Labour leader I would want to take over after May, not before.
    I would be astonished if Labour finish higher than 3rd. I live just outside Gorton & Denton and go through the southern part of it every day. The streets I go down are normally awash with Labour signs in the run up to every election. I can now count them on one hand, whereas the number of Green signs is growing by the day. A strong Green showing in Levenshulme is to be expected as Labour only got 37% there at the last locals, but if Labour are as far behind in Burnage as they seem to be they are utterly finished. I haven't passed through Denton lately, though I hear Reform are pretty much camped out there, shoring up votes in the older, whiter part of the constituency.
    Welcome to PB, Mr. Tor.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 57,804
    Brixian59 said:

    I am convinced that yesterday saw 4 things baked in for the next 5 months

    1 a shellacking in upcoming elections with a best expectation of 3td in Wales and Scotland, 2nd more likely 3rd in Gorton, and 3rd in local council elections.

    If Labour beat Tories in each of those the Tories will be looking for a new Leader before Labour are.

    2 a new team around Starmer and clear evidence from Starmer that he will have a far more open door relationship with the PLP.

    The replacements for Comms and Wormold should reflect this.

    I think the quick promotion of 2 ladies who are both respected and on situ so to speak is seen as a positive

    3 I expect a reshuffle b4 the summer break

    I expect Rayner to come back in one of her old roles not all though, Haigh to get a junior Ministerial role and Powell to get a full cabinet role.

    I think the current improvement in inflation, interest rate and growth could save Rachel in the medium term to soothe the markets who do like her general direction of travel

    I think Lammy and Kendall are most at risk

    4. I suspect the Party needs to see a poll uptick on opinion polls between May and July and what happens to the Tories will be key.

    If they have 3 months of more in fighting after a bigger election shellacking than Labour, then Starmer will be trusted to see the Party through the year to see what evolves

    Point 1: Kemi is unlikely to be moving just because Labour beat the Tories at Gorton!
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,878

    Several commentators have now said we’re going to see Starmer “unconstrained”. It’s really now or never then.

    The buttoned up man is here to stay and he's... Undoing his collar?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 49,006
    edited 10:07AM

    Good morning

    I do not recile from my support for Kemi despite @TSE and @HYUFD views and expect her to fight the next GE

    Interestingly Miliband ruled himself out of any future leadership bid and it did seem genuine

    Streeting is obviously in trouble with his disclosures yesterday on his relationship with Mandelson and I just do not see Rayner winning

    If labour have any sense they need to find a unity candidate to take on Starmer

    Sarwar must have been misled or his fellow rebels got cold feet as seen by Wales first minister. The meeting of the SLP this morning could be quite fractious

    I expect Greens to win Gorton and Denton comfortably which if it sends a message to Reform and Labour is good

    I disagree with the BIB. It keeps getting pundited as an "attempted coup" by Sarwar but I think it's clear it wasn't. It was something he decided to do off his own bat for his own personal and political reasons. Gain maximum distance from an unpopular PM with an eye on the Holyrood elections. Counter the accusation that SLAB is a 'branch office". Hopefully improve his election prospects. If not, more able to say "not my fault, Starmer's fault, I did say he ought to go, didn't I?"

    That's why he did it. He had no serious expectation that it would lead to SKS resigning or being ousted. And on those terms it worked perfectly well. He will not be licking any wounds today. He'll just be thinking "job done".
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 16,600
    Roger said:

    Cicero said:

    I must say the commentators are eating a lot of crow in the press this morning. I hold no love for SKS, but hahahahahahahahahahahaha.

    The BBC need a clearout even more than Starmer's office....This Starmer out stuff has been completely led by the media. Why on earth should Starmer resign because of a bad appointment which was made in difficult circumstances and in good faith?

    Some of the reporting has been whacky. If you'd arrived from Mars you'd think Starmer was personally found to have been abusing under aged girls. Mind you this site wasn't much better
    Lovely example of rhetorical device. 'Why should Starmer resign.....on account of one isolated example of a sub optimal job offer.'

    Let me count the ways.....
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 15,234

    Dopermean said:

    Morning all, YouGov unmoved by events
    Ref 27 (+1)
    Labour 19 (=)
    Con 18. (=)
    Grn 16 (-1)
    LD 14 (=)
    8-9 Feb

    Another poll with the Tories doing much worse than 2024, just imagine how bad it would be without Kemi Badenoch winning PMQs last week.
    Increasingly secure, comfortable(?), in her position but no more adept. Might be familiar enough by '29 to take enough votes off Reform to stop them breaking through on FPTP.
    150 to 175 seat strategy needs to be the Tories focus. They aren't forming a government in 2029, they need to ensure they are a strong(er) opposition to whatever weak minority or coalition emerges
    While there is merit in that idea, I think we are a long, long way out. I suspect Labour will get better, the Greens will wilt and as most people in this country abhor Farage and his racists, I think there will be considerable tactical voting against Reform.

    Where that puts the Tories? Who knows at this point. I think the first GE after a long period in office is always going to be tough.
    The 2001 GE agrees with you.
    Their thinking needs to be we cannot win 2029 but we must ensure we can still win 2034.
    75 seats we will win
    100 seats we can win
    100 seats we can finish second
    100 seats we can stay in the conversation
    ^ that sort of thinking
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 15,234
    Selebian said:

    Several commentators have now said we’re going to see Starmer “unconstrained”. It’s really now or never then.

    The buttoned up man is here to stay and he's... Undoing his collar?
    Its all so utterly predictable from Labour (or *insert lame duck here* more generally)
    The 'isnt he dreamy??!' bullshit
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 42,408

    Scott_xP said:

    @aakashgupta

    Ring paid somewhere between $8 and $10 million for a 30-second Super Bowl spot to tell 120 million viewers that their cameras now scan neighborhoods using AI.

    The math is wild. Ring has roughly 20 million devices in American homes. Search Party is enabled by default. The opt-out rate on default settings in consumer tech is historically around 5%. So approximately 19 million cameras are now running AI pattern matching on anything that moves past your front door. Today the target is dogs. The same infrastructure already handles “Familiar Faces,” which builds biometric profiles of every person your camera sees, whether they know about it or not.

    Ring settled with the FTC for $5.8 million after employees had unrestricted access to customers’ bedroom and bathroom footage for years. They’re now partnered with Flock Safety, which routes footage to local law enforcement. ICE has accessed Flock data through local police departments acting as intermediaries. Senator Markey’s investigation found Ring’s privacy protections only apply to device owners. If you’re a neighbor, a delivery driver, a passerby, you have no rights and no recourse.

    This tells you everything about Amazon’s actual product. The customer paid for the camera. The customer pays the electricity. The customer pays the $3.99/month subscription. And Amazon gets a surveillance grid that would cost tens of billions to build from scratch, with an AI layer activated by default, and a law enforcement pipeline already connected.

    They wrapped all of that in a lost puppy commercial because that’s the only version of this story anyone would willingly opt into.

    https://x.com/aakashgupta/status/2021097860490723535?s=20

    Is it though? What of a lost child? Or hunting a rapist/murderer in the style of the Sarah Everard case?

    Not everyone feels the same way about CCTV etc.
    "If you have nothing to hide you have nothing to fear..."

    So a child goes missing, and you are identified as a person of interest because you were walking past their door at around the same time

    You would be lucky to escape the mob
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 31,286
    edited 10:15AM

    I was just looking over some stuff for the May locals etc and thinking sbout how perception of the results impacts. Last year the Tories were defending pretty much all the county councils that were up and most councillors do the results looked like primarily Tory defeat - most councillors, councils etc lost. Accordingly the Tory VI in polling took a 4 or 5 poInt instant hit. Labour, whilst utterly drubbed, were only defending 280 or so wards. The analysis of what it would mean at a GE was apocalyptic for Labour and very bad for the Tories (but rather better than many of the subsequent MRPs suggested)

    This time its rather different. Ignoring Scot/Wales (they will speak for themselves). county wise we just have 2 Tory ones up - Essex and Hampshire. I expect them to lose both but to be doing better thsn last year they would be looking to stop Reform taking overall conttol in Essex and remaining largest party in a NOC Hampshire.
    Then we have London and the district/unitaries. Labour are defending 33 outside London and 21 in London and 2100 or so wards, the Tories defend 7 outside London (incl the counties), 5 in London and 900 or so wards.

    So, the story this time away from Ref, Green surging will be of Labour carnage and loss of councils (barring a miracle), theyll lose many more councils, councillors etc thsn the Tories (who will lose a lot - 300 councillors and half the councils?) Im not sure Labour can keep losses under 1000.

    So.... will it hit Labour's polling like 2025 did the Tories??

    The 2025 elections proved that Reform could win.
    In 2026 we already know that.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 15,234

    Brixian59 said:

    I am convinced that yesterday saw 4 things baked in for the next 5 months

    1 a shellacking in upcoming elections with a best expectation of 3td in Wales and Scotland, 2nd more likely 3rd in Gorton, and 3rd in local council elections.

    If Labour beat Tories in each of those the Tories will be looking for a new Leader before Labour are.

    2 a new team around Starmer and clear evidence from Starmer that he will have a far more open door relationship with the PLP.

    The replacements for Comms and Wormold should reflect this.

    I think the quick promotion of 2 ladies who are both respected and on situ so to speak is seen as a positive

    3 I expect a reshuffle b4 the summer break

    I expect Rayner to come back in one of her old roles not all though, Haigh to get a junior Ministerial role and Powell to get a full cabinet role.

    I think the current improvement in inflation, interest rate and growth could save Rachel in the medium term to soothe the markets who do like her general direction of travel

    I think Lammy and Kendall are most at risk

    4. I suspect the Party needs to see a poll uptick on opinion polls between May and July and what happens to the Tories will be key.

    If they have 3 months of more in fighting after a bigger election shellacking than Labour, then Starmer will be trusted to see the Party through the year to see what evolves

    Point 1: Kemi is unlikely to be moving just because Labour beat the Tories at Gorton!
    But if Charlotte Cadden comes ahead of Labour .......... ;)
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 46,558
    Selebian said:

    Several commentators have now said we’re going to see Starmer “unconstrained”. It’s really now or never then.

    The buttoned up man is here to stay and he's... Undoing his collar?
    Jack Blackburn 🇺🇦
    @HackBlackburn
    ·
    12h
    I’m hearing that Keir Starmer has been very charismatic in private again

    https://x.com/HackBlackburn/status/2020985054055531007?s=20
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 15,234
    edited 10:18AM
    dixiedean said:

    I was just looking over some stuff for the May locals etc and thinking sbout how perception of the results impacts. Last year the Tories were defending pretty much all the county councils that were up and most councillors do the results looked like primarily Tory defeat - most councillors, councils etc lost. Accordingly the Tory VI in polling took a 4 or 5 poInt instant hit. Labour, whilst utterly drubbed, were only defending 280 or so wards. The analysis of what it would mean at a GE was apocalyptic for Labour and very bad for the Tories (but rather better than many of the subsequent MRPs suggested)

    This time its rather different. Ignoring Scot/Wales (they will speak for themselves). county wise we just have 2 Tory ones up - Essex and Hampshire. I expect them to lose both but to be doing better thsn last year they would be looking to stop Reform taking overall conttol in Essex and remaining largest party in a NOC Hampshire.
    Then we have London and the district/unitaries. Labour are defending 33 outside London and 21 in London and 2100 or so wards, the Tories defend 7 outside London (incl the counties), 5 in London and 900 or so wards.

    So, the story this time away from Ref, Green surging will be of Labour carnage and loss of councils (barring a miracle), theyll lose many more councils, councillors etc thsn the Tories (who will lose a lot - 300 councillors and half the councils?) Im not sure Labour can keep losses under 1000.

    So.... will it hit Labour's polling like 2025 did the Tories??

    The 2025 elections proved that Reform could win.
    In 2026 we already know that.
    However the 2025 elections showed that Tory dominance at county level could be swept away
    2026 will do that for Labour and the cities/unitaries
  • Jim_the_LurkerJim_the_Lurker Posts: 254
    Thanks for the header - despite the febrile atmosphere of yesterday it seems that Starmer is going to stay for as long as possible.

    And arguably the biggest contenders to the position of Labour leader will have to give him that time. Rayner needs to get past the HMRC investigation, Streeting needs to put a bit of time between him and Mandelson. That leaves Milliband - who has said he ain’t keen - as the one who arguably could take the position tomorrow. Burnham remains not an MP.

    I guess the question then becomes how much time do the two main contenders need to get beyond their own local difficulties? Will three months be enough? Or are we talking six or a year?
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 15,234

    Selebian said:

    Several commentators have now said we’re going to see Starmer “unconstrained”. It’s really now or never then.

    The buttoned up man is here to stay and he's... Undoing his collar?
    Jack Blackburn 🇺🇦
    @HackBlackburn
    ·
    12h
    I’m hearing that Keir Starmer has been very charismatic in private again

    https://x.com/HackBlackburn/status/2020985054055531007?s=20
    You dont know my Keir, he goes to a different school
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 7,484

    Selebian said:

    Several commentators have now said we’re going to see Starmer “unconstrained”. It’s really now or never then.

    The buttoned up man is here to stay and he's... Undoing his collar?
    Jack Blackburn 🇺🇦
    @HackBlackburn
    ·
    12h
    I’m hearing that Keir Starmer has been very charismatic in private again

    https://x.com/HackBlackburn/status/2020985054055531007?s=20
    You dont know my Keir, he goes to a different school
    We know that's bullshit. The one thing Starmer isn't is charismatic.
  • theProletheProle Posts: 1,694

    Cliche alert.

    Raynor is a case of turkeys voting for Xmas. Her basic instincts are thoroughly Corbynite and that would we exposed by being PM and in the full glare of media attention. Just like SKS is just so obviously a north London lawyer. But progressives are so self-congratulatory and inward looking these days they don't see it.

    I wonder whether this is Milliband's chance - he protesteth too much imho

    I see Ed Miliband as the steady pair of hands who can safely guide Labour to a respectable defeat and opposition.

    That's preferable to choosing someone who would blow everything up and put Labour in fifth, but are Labour yet reconciled to defeat at the next GE? I suspect not, and so I think someone else will be chosen.
    Ed Miliband would be a suicidal move
    If anyone is Labour's Liz Truss, it's Ed Miliband. He's away with the fairies.
    Miliband is weird. He's a much better political operator than most of the cabinet (see also his avoiding contamination from the Mandy fall out). He actually gets his department to do his bidding (more or less).
    I don't see him crashing the government on the rocks of the bond markets (which is were we're going if Burnham or Rainer get anywhere near no10).

    But - for all that he's effective and grown up, he's also a lunatic. You only have to see his energy policies. Systematically baking in the most expensive energy in the world for a generation, via unbelievably expensive contacts for difference. Chucking cash down the drain on carbon capture and storage. Getting done up like a kipper over Sizewell C and Hinckley point. Failing to sort out rational incentives for the grid to prioritise new connections to the most useful windfarms, whilst letting people carry on building them in Scotland where there isn't a prayer to getting the electricity anywhere useful for a decade. Rejecting regional grid pricing to get people to use electricity near where it's generated... The litany of stupidity goes on and on.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 22,367

    Dopermean said:

    Morning all, YouGov unmoved by events
    Ref 27 (+1)
    Labour 19 (=)
    Con 18. (=)
    Grn 16 (-1)
    LD 14 (=)
    8-9 Feb

    Another poll with the Tories doing much worse than 2024, just imagine how bad it would be without Kemi Badenoch winning PMQs last week.
    Increasingly secure, comfortable(?), in her position but no more adept. Might be familiar enough by '29 to take enough votes off Reform to stop them breaking through on FPTP.
    150 to 175 seat strategy needs to be the Tories focus. They aren't forming a government in 2029, they need to ensure they are a strong(er) opposition to whatever weak minority or coalition emerges
    While there is merit in that idea, I think we are a long, long way out. I suspect Labour will get better, the Greens will wilt and as most people in this country abhor Farage and his racists, I think there will be considerable tactical voting against Reform.

    Where that puts the Tories? Who knows at this point. I think the first GE after a long period in office is always going to be tough.
    The 2001 GE agrees with you.
    Their thinking needs to be we cannot win 2029 but we must ensure we can still win 2034.
    75 seats we will win
    100 seats we can win
    100 seats we can finish second
    100 seats we can stay in the conversation
    ^ that sort of thinking
    The problem is, I think twofold.

    Firstly, the overriding priority for the Tories is to remain the leading party of the Right. They absolutely must win more seats than Reform at the next general election or there's a good* chance that it's all over.

    Secondly, the public really don't like Labour, or Starmer, or any of the other potential Labour leaders. So it's to be expected that they will be looking for an alternative at the next election. If the Tories are not an alternative government - because they're still tainted by their most recent 14 years in office - then Reform are the next cab on the rank, they will be the instrument of choice for defeating the present government, and the Tories will fall behind Reform.

    Taken together there are thus two potential avenues for the survival of the Tories. They might rapidly reinvent themselves with a forward-looking critique of the Labour government. Or the Labour government might recover sufficiently to be reluctantly re-elected with a reduced majority.

    I'm not sure which of the two is the most unlikely.

    * The only saving grace is that Reform is set up as a Farage Publicity Vehicle, and so the whole thing has the potential to collapse when Farage retires/expires.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 15,234
    Scott_xP said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @aakashgupta

    Ring paid somewhere between $8 and $10 million for a 30-second Super Bowl spot to tell 120 million viewers that their cameras now scan neighborhoods using AI.

    The math is wild. Ring has roughly 20 million devices in American homes. Search Party is enabled by default. The opt-out rate on default settings in consumer tech is historically around 5%. So approximately 19 million cameras are now running AI pattern matching on anything that moves past your front door. Today the target is dogs. The same infrastructure already handles “Familiar Faces,” which builds biometric profiles of every person your camera sees, whether they know about it or not.

    Ring settled with the FTC for $5.8 million after employees had unrestricted access to customers’ bedroom and bathroom footage for years. They’re now partnered with Flock Safety, which routes footage to local law enforcement. ICE has accessed Flock data through local police departments acting as intermediaries. Senator Markey’s investigation found Ring’s privacy protections only apply to device owners. If you’re a neighbor, a delivery driver, a passerby, you have no rights and no recourse.

    This tells you everything about Amazon’s actual product. The customer paid for the camera. The customer pays the electricity. The customer pays the $3.99/month subscription. And Amazon gets a surveillance grid that would cost tens of billions to build from scratch, with an AI layer activated by default, and a law enforcement pipeline already connected.

    They wrapped all of that in a lost puppy commercial because that’s the only version of this story anyone would willingly opt into.

    https://x.com/aakashgupta/status/2021097860490723535?s=20

    Is it though? What of a lost child? Or hunting a rapist/murderer in the style of the Sarah Everard case?

    Not everyone feels the same way about CCTV etc.
    "If you have nothing to hide you have nothing to fear..."

    So a child goes missing, and you are identified as a person of interest because you were walking past their door at around the same time

    You would be lucky to escape the mob
    Silicon masks for all. Release the army of Nixons
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 18,674

    Is it possible the polls are being sent to geeks.. hence the lack of movement. Everyone I know is appalled at what has gone on.

    "Everyone I know", for any of us, is not a statistically representative sample of the population, however.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 69,626
    kinabalu said:

    Good morning

    I do not recile from my support for Kemi despite @TSE and @HYUFD views and expect her to fight the next GE

    Interestingly Miliband ruled himself out of any future leadership bid and it did seem genuine

    Streeting is obviously in trouble with his disclosures yesterday on his relationship with Mandelson and I just do not see Rayner winning

    If labour have any sense they need to find a unity candidate to take on Starmer

    Sarwar must have been misled or his fellow rebels got cold feet as seen by Wales first minister. The meeting of the SLP this morning could be quite fractious

    I expect Greens to win Gorton and Denton comfortably which if it sends a message to Reform and Labour is good

    I disagree with the BIB. It keeps getting pundited as an "attempted coup" by Sarwar but I think it's clear it wasn't. It was something he decided to do off his own bat for his own personal and political reasons. Gain maximum distance from an unpopular PM with an eye on the Holyrood elections. Counter the accusation that SLAB is a 'branch office". Hopefully improve his election prospects. If not, more able to say "not my fault, Starmer's fault, I did say he ought to go, didn't I?"

    That's why he did it. He had no serious expectation that it would lead to SKS resigning or being ousted. And on those terms it worked perfectly well. He will not be licking any wounds today. He'll just be thinking "job done".
    This morning's SLP meeting should be fun !!!!
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 60,667
    Scott_xP said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @aakashgupta

    Ring paid somewhere between $8 and $10 million for a 30-second Super Bowl spot to tell 120 million viewers that their cameras now scan neighborhoods using AI.

    The math is wild. Ring has roughly 20 million devices in American homes. Search Party is enabled by default. The opt-out rate on default settings in consumer tech is historically around 5%. So approximately 19 million cameras are now running AI pattern matching on anything that moves past your front door. Today the target is dogs. The same infrastructure already handles “Familiar Faces,” which builds biometric profiles of every person your camera sees, whether they know about it or not.

    Ring settled with the FTC for $5.8 million after employees had unrestricted access to customers’ bedroom and bathroom footage for years. They’re now partnered with Flock Safety, which routes footage to local law enforcement. ICE has accessed Flock data through local police departments acting as intermediaries. Senator Markey’s investigation found Ring’s privacy protections only apply to device owners. If you’re a neighbor, a delivery driver, a passerby, you have no rights and no recourse.

    This tells you everything about Amazon’s actual product. The customer paid for the camera. The customer pays the electricity. The customer pays the $3.99/month subscription. And Amazon gets a surveillance grid that would cost tens of billions to build from scratch, with an AI layer activated by default, and a law enforcement pipeline already connected.

    They wrapped all of that in a lost puppy commercial because that’s the only version of this story anyone would willingly opt into.

    https://x.com/aakashgupta/status/2021097860490723535?s=20

    Is it though? What of a lost child? Or hunting a rapist/murderer in the style of the Sarah Everard case?

    Not everyone feels the same way about CCTV etc.
    "If you have nothing to hide you have nothing to fear..."

    So a child goes missing, and you are identified as a person of interest because you were walking past their door at around the same time

    You would be lucky to escape the mob
    But CVTV would be awesome for tracking down people wearing loud shirts in built up areas. Or those in possession of offensive wives.

    Combine that with facial recognition, and $55 billion in detention camps for people who step on the cracks in the pavement and we can really make the trains run on time.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 15,234
    edited 10:27AM

    Selebian said:

    Several commentators have now said we’re going to see Starmer “unconstrained”. It’s really now or never then.

    The buttoned up man is here to stay and he's... Undoing his collar?
    Jack Blackburn 🇺🇦
    @HackBlackburn
    ·
    12h
    I’m hearing that Keir Starmer has been very charismatic in private again

    https://x.com/HackBlackburn/status/2020985054055531007?s=20
    You dont know my Keir, he goes to a different school
    We know that's bullshit. The one thing Starmer isn't is charismatic.
    First prize in our contest a night out with Keir
    Second prize two nights out.......
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 7,484

    Is it possible the polls are being sent to geeks.. hence the lack of movement. Everyone I know is appalled at what has gone on.

    "Everyone I know", for any of us, is not a statistically representative sample of the population, however.
    Ok everyone i know from various walks of life
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 60,667

    Thanks for the header - despite the febrile atmosphere of yesterday it seems that Starmer is going to stay for as long as possible.

    And arguably the biggest contenders to the position of Labour leader will have to give him that time. Rayner needs to get past the HMRC investigation, Streeting needs to put a bit of time between him and Mandelson. That leaves Milliband - who has said he ain’t keen - as the one who arguably could take the position tomorrow. Burnham remains not an MP.

    I guess the question then becomes how much time do the two main contenders need to get beyond their own local difficulties? Will three months be enough? Or are we talking six or a year?

    It’s the same thing in all the traditional major parties - no one really wants the crown.

    Conservatives, Labour or Lib Dem - what will a successor get? Apart from blame? As opposed to after the next election?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 57,804
    Nigelb said:

    There is zero legal justification for any plea deal or non prosecution agreement which does not make public the names of those involved.
    Indeed the law requires that victims be notified.

    @PabloReports: What can you tell us about what you saw in the unredacted Epstein files?

    Khanna: Most of the unredacted files were redacted—70 to 80 percent. Massie and I saw that there were six men who were co‑conspirators and were being protected. Those names need to be made public. There’s no excuse for releasing survivors’ names while protecting these six men. There are probably more. In just two hours, we saw that these six men were being protected.

    https://x.com/Acyn/status/2021017533915304277

    The continuing redaction is also in defiance of the law passed by Congress to release this information.

    After the mid-terms, with a Democrat controlled House and quite possibly a Senate, Trump is going to be spending all his waking hours pardoning ICE and DOJ employees.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 21,573

    Dopermean said:

    Morning all, YouGov unmoved by events
    Ref 27 (+1)
    Labour 19 (=)
    Con 18. (=)
    Grn 16 (-1)
    LD 14 (=)
    8-9 Feb

    Another poll with the Tories doing much worse than 2024, just imagine how bad it would be without Kemi Badenoch winning PMQs last week.
    Increasingly secure, comfortable(?), in her position but no more adept. Might be familiar enough by '29 to take enough votes off Reform to stop them breaking through on FPTP.
    150 to 175 seat strategy needs to be the Tories focus. They aren't forming a government in 2029, they need to ensure they are a strong(er) opposition to whatever weak minority or coalition emerges
    While there is merit in that idea, I think we are a long, long way out. I suspect Labour will get better, the Greens will wilt and as most people in this country abhor Farage and his racists, I think there will be considerable tactical voting against Reform.

    Where that puts the Tories? Who knows at this point. I think the first GE after a long period in office is always going to be tough.
    The 2001 GE agrees with you.
    Their thinking needs to be we cannot win 2029 but we must ensure we can still win 2034.
    75 seats we will win
    100 seats we can win
    100 seats we can finish second
    100 seats we can stay in the conversation
    ^ that sort of thinking
    Sensible, but it requires a mindset that politicians tend not to have- effectively admitting defeat long before the campaign starts.

    Very few politicians think that way, or they wouldn't do something like politics, which depends on a "I alone can command the tides" mentally. The move towards it being people's primary career makes that worse.

    Parties tend to fight in impossibly ambitious battlelines- how late did the Conservatives give up on their 'try to gain another 20' strategy in the runup to 2024? Or look at some of the mad seats Labour worked in 2019. It's one of the things that turns defeats into routs.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 63,507

    Scott_xP said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @aakashgupta

    Ring paid somewhere between $8 and $10 million for a 30-second Super Bowl spot to tell 120 million viewers that their cameras now scan neighborhoods using AI.

    The math is wild. Ring has roughly 20 million devices in American homes. Search Party is enabled by default. The opt-out rate on default settings in consumer tech is historically around 5%. So approximately 19 million cameras are now running AI pattern matching on anything that moves past your front door. Today the target is dogs. The same infrastructure already handles “Familiar Faces,” which builds biometric profiles of every person your camera sees, whether they know about it or not.

    Ring settled with the FTC for $5.8 million after employees had unrestricted access to customers’ bedroom and bathroom footage for years. They’re now partnered with Flock Safety, which routes footage to local law enforcement. ICE has accessed Flock data through local police departments acting as intermediaries. Senator Markey’s investigation found Ring’s privacy protections only apply to device owners. If you’re a neighbor, a delivery driver, a passerby, you have no rights and no recourse.

    This tells you everything about Amazon’s actual product. The customer paid for the camera. The customer pays the electricity. The customer pays the $3.99/month subscription. And Amazon gets a surveillance grid that would cost tens of billions to build from scratch, with an AI layer activated by default, and a law enforcement pipeline already connected.

    They wrapped all of that in a lost puppy commercial because that’s the only version of this story anyone would willingly opt into.

    https://x.com/aakashgupta/status/2021097860490723535?s=20

    Is it though? What of a lost child? Or hunting a rapist/murderer in the style of the Sarah Everard case?

    Not everyone feels the same way about CCTV etc.
    "If you have nothing to hide you have nothing to fear..."

    So a child goes missing, and you are identified as a person of interest because you were walking past their door at around the same time

    You would be lucky to escape the mob
    But CVTV would be awesome for tracking down people wearing loud shirts in built up areas. Or those in possession of offensive wives.

    Combine that with facial recognition, and $55 billion in detention camps for people who step on the cracks in the pavement and we can really make the trains run on time.
    Sounds like a Savage use of technology to me.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,471
    theProle said:

    Cliche alert.

    Raynor is a case of turkeys voting for Xmas. Her basic instincts are thoroughly Corbynite and that would we exposed by being PM and in the full glare of media attention. Just like SKS is just so obviously a north London lawyer. But progressives are so self-congratulatory and inward looking these days they don't see it.

    I wonder whether this is Milliband's chance - he protesteth too much imho

    I see Ed Miliband as the steady pair of hands who can safely guide Labour to a respectable defeat and opposition.

    That's preferable to choosing someone who would blow everything up and put Labour in fifth, but are Labour yet reconciled to defeat at the next GE? I suspect not, and so I think someone else will be chosen.
    Ed Miliband would be a suicidal move
    If anyone is Labour's Liz Truss, it's Ed Miliband. He's away with the fairies.
    Miliband is weird. He's a much better political operator than most of the cabinet (see also his avoiding contamination from the Mandy fall out). He actually gets his department to do his bidding (more or less).
    I don't see him crashing the government on the rocks of the bond markets (which is were we're going if Burnham or Rainer get anywhere near no10).

    But - for all that he's effective and grown up, he's also a lunatic. You only have to see his energy policies. Systematically baking in the most expensive energy in the world for a generation, via unbelievably expensive contacts for difference. Chucking cash down the drain on carbon capture and storage. Getting done up like a kipper over Sizewell C and Hinckley point. Failing to sort out rational incentives for the grid to prioritise new connections to the most useful windfarms, whilst letting people carry on building them in Scotland where there isn't a prayer to getting the electricity anywhere useful for a decade. Rejecting regional grid pricing to get people to use electricity near where it's generated... The litany of stupidity goes on and on.
    Miliband is not a lunatic and he is not stupid.

    But he is someone who you (and I) strongly and angrily disagree with. He has no wish to act in the British national interest, which is the source of why so many react against him.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 22,367
    theProle said:

    Cliche alert.

    Raynor is a case of turkeys voting for Xmas. Her basic instincts are thoroughly Corbynite and that would we exposed by being PM and in the full glare of media attention. Just like SKS is just so obviously a north London lawyer. But progressives are so self-congratulatory and inward looking these days they don't see it.

    I wonder whether this is Milliband's chance - he protesteth too much imho

    I see Ed Miliband as the steady pair of hands who can safely guide Labour to a respectable defeat and opposition.

    That's preferable to choosing someone who would blow everything up and put Labour in fifth, but are Labour yet reconciled to defeat at the next GE? I suspect not, and so I think someone else will be chosen.
    Ed Miliband would be a suicidal move
    If anyone is Labour's Liz Truss, it's Ed Miliband. He's away with the fairies.
    Miliband is weird. He's a much better political operator than most of the cabinet (see also his avoiding contamination from the Mandy fall out). He actually gets his department to do his bidding (more or less).
    I don't see him crashing the government on the rocks of the bond markets (which is were we're going if Burnham or Rainer get anywhere near no10).

    But - for all that he's effective and grown up, he's also a lunatic. You only have to see his energy policies. Systematically baking in the most expensive energy in the world for a generation, via unbelievably expensive contacts for difference. Chucking cash down the drain on carbon capture and storage. Getting done up like a kipper over Sizewell C and Hinckley point. Failing to sort out rational incentives for the grid to prioritise new connections to the most useful windfarms, whilst letting people carry on building them in Scotland where there isn't a prayer to getting the electricity anywhere useful for a decade. Rejecting regional grid pricing to get people to use electricity near where it's generated... The litany of stupidity goes on and on.
    I think that's a reasonably fair summary, though I wouldn't characterise Miliband as a lunatic. I disagree with a lot of his policy decisions, but I don't think they're as bad as being lunatic.

    He would be a definite step up from Starmer, and he avoids the downside risks of sinking the ship that you'd have with Burnham, were he an MP.

    I do think he's really not interested, though, which is both another point in his favour, but also indicates that he's not going to lead a putsch. So Starmer may well stay in post for a while yet.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 15,234
    edited 10:32AM

    Dopermean said:

    Morning all, YouGov unmoved by events
    Ref 27 (+1)
    Labour 19 (=)
    Con 18. (=)
    Grn 16 (-1)
    LD 14 (=)
    8-9 Feb

    Another poll with the Tories doing much worse than 2024, just imagine how bad it would be without Kemi Badenoch winning PMQs last week.
    Increasingly secure, comfortable(?), in her position but no more adept. Might be familiar enough by '29 to take enough votes off Reform to stop them breaking through on FPTP.
    150 to 175 seat strategy needs to be the Tories focus. They aren't forming a government in 2029, they need to ensure they are a strong(er) opposition to whatever weak minority or coalition emerges
    While there is merit in that idea, I think we are a long, long way out. I suspect Labour will get better, the Greens will wilt and as most people in this country abhor Farage and his racists, I think there will be considerable tactical voting against Reform.

    Where that puts the Tories? Who knows at this point. I think the first GE after a long period in office is always going to be tough.
    The 2001 GE agrees with you.
    Their thinking needs to be we cannot win 2029 but we must ensure we can still win 2034.
    75 seats we will win
    100 seats we can win
    100 seats we can finish second
    100 seats we can stay in the conversation
    ^ that sort of thinking
    The problem is, I think twofold.

    Firstly, the overriding priority for the Tories is to remain the leading party of the Right. They absolutely must win more seats than Reform at the next general election or there's a good* chance that it's all over.

    Secondly, the public really don't like Labour, or Starmer, or any of the other potential Labour leaders. So it's to be expected that they will be looking for an alternative at the next election. If the Tories are not an alternative government - because they're still tainted by their most recent 14 years in office - then Reform are the next cab on the rank, they will be the instrument of choice for defeating the present government, and the Tories will fall behind Reform.

    Taken together there are thus two potential avenues for the survival of the Tories. They might rapidly reinvent themselves with a forward-looking critique of the Labour government. Or the Labour government might recover sufficiently to be reluctantly re-elected with a reduced majority.

    I'm not sure which of the two is the most unlikely.

    * The only saving grace is that Reform is set up as a Farage Publicity Vehicle, and so the whole thing has the potential to collapse when Farage retires/expires.
    Yes, its a strategy fraught with danger but they are in peril anyway
    A third option - the election becomes a battle for what flavour and how far right of centre government we want.
    Ref 28 Con 28 Lab 16
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 69,626
    Starmer's allies worry that Streeting publushing his whats app messages exposes them all to do the same

    I know its Hodges but you can see the point

    https://x.com/i/status/2021146435106861537
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 42,408
    @lewis_goodall

    My understanding is that the Cabinet Secretary Chris Wormald has already been sacked, happened yesterday and is only remaining in post to discuss terms.

    Complete No 10 clearout.
  • Big_IanBig_Ian Posts: 72

    Selebian said:

    Several commentators have now said we’re going to see Starmer “unconstrained”. It’s really now or never then.

    The buttoned up man is here to stay and he's... Undoing his collar?
    Jack Blackburn 🇺🇦
    @HackBlackburn
    ·
    12h
    I’m hearing that Keir Starmer has been very charismatic in private again

    https://x.com/HackBlackburn/status/2020985054055531007?s=20
    You dont know my Keir, he goes to a different school
    We know that's bullshit. The one thing Starmer isn't is charismatic.
    He's going to be an answer on Pointless one day.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 69,626
    Scott_xP said:

    @lewis_goodall

    My understanding is that the Cabinet Secretary Chris Wormald has already been sacked, happened yesterday and is only remaining in post to discuss terms.

    Complete No 10 clearout.

    No doubt with a peerage

    Award for failure - they just do not get it do they
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 3,554
    Nigelb said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Why is John Healey not higher? As an outsider to Labour, I'd be expecting him to be a far better candidate than those ahead of him.

    Healey is the sensible choice for the country.

    Which means that Labour MPs and Labour members will have no interest in nominating him.

    Keeping Starmer in place is preferable to replacing him with Miliband or Rayner.
    In what respect is Healey greatly different from Starmer ?
    I've nothing against the guy, but I'm unaware of any notable achievements.

    And it's time for a reminder that the Defence Review was published at the beginning of June last year.
    The Defence Investment Plan, intended to set out spending priorities for the next decade, was due last autumn. Still crickets.
    He's just Baldy Ben with a less catastrophic cholesterol level, presiding over the same torpor and dysfunction at the MoD.

    Why he's anybody's idea of a PM is beyond me. Labour's challenge is to sell occasionally unpalatable reform to the MPs and then sell it again to the electorate as what they need and want. That takes a big personality and some degree of personal charm. Healey has the personality and charm of a Minecraft Creeper so we can cross him off.
    Little Tom Tugendhat has a recent series of substance articles which suggests he's actually thinking seriously about our future defence priorities.
    Here's one.
    https://thereset63.substack.com/p/eight-days-then-its-over
    That seems a well-informed article by someone capable of making a useful contribution. I wonder how many backbench MPs there are now who are more than lobby fodder? The clear-out in 2024 won't have helped, and if the next election sees 200 Lee Andersons elected then the House of Commons is going to be pretty desperate.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 15,234

    Dopermean said:

    Morning all, YouGov unmoved by events
    Ref 27 (+1)
    Labour 19 (=)
    Con 18. (=)
    Grn 16 (-1)
    LD 14 (=)
    8-9 Feb

    Another poll with the Tories doing much worse than 2024, just imagine how bad it would be without Kemi Badenoch winning PMQs last week.
    Increasingly secure, comfortable(?), in her position but no more adept. Might be familiar enough by '29 to take enough votes off Reform to stop them breaking through on FPTP.
    150 to 175 seat strategy needs to be the Tories focus. They aren't forming a government in 2029, they need to ensure they are a strong(er) opposition to whatever weak minority or coalition emerges
    While there is merit in that idea, I think we are a long, long way out. I suspect Labour will get better, the Greens will wilt and as most people in this country abhor Farage and his racists, I think there will be considerable tactical voting against Reform.

    Where that puts the Tories? Who knows at this point. I think the first GE after a long period in office is always going to be tough.
    The 2001 GE agrees with you.
    Their thinking needs to be we cannot win 2029 but we must ensure we can still win 2034.
    75 seats we will win
    100 seats we can win
    100 seats we can finish second
    100 seats we can stay in the conversation
    ^ that sort of thinking
    Sensible, but it requires a mindset that politicians tend not to have- effectively admitting defeat long before the campaign starts.

    Very few politicians think that way, or they wouldn't do something like politics, which depends on a "I alone can command the tides" mentally. The move towards it being people's primary career makes that worse.

    Parties tend to fight in impossibly ambitious battlelines- how late did the Conservatives give up on their 'try to gain another 20' strategy in the runup to 2024? Or look at some of the mad seats Labour worked in 2019. It's one of the things that turns defeats into routs.
    Over ambition is a killer. I guess yiu have no chouce from government - thats Labours problem now.
    A full on Blue Wall strategy in 2022 to 2024 would have put the Tories in much better shape now i think but would have bern conceding defeat
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 2,275
    edited 10:40AM

    Cliche alert.

    Raynor is a case of turkeys voting for Xmas. Her basic instincts are thoroughly Corbynite and that would we exposed by being PM and in the full glare of media attention. Just like SKS is just so obviously a north London lawyer. But progressives are so self-congratulatory and inward looking these days they don't see it.

    I wonder whether this is Milliband's chance - he protesteth too much imho

    I see Ed Miliband as the steady pair of hands who can safely guide Labour to a respectable defeat and opposition.

    That's preferable to choosing someone who would blow everything up and put Labour in fifth, but are Labour yet reconciled to defeat at the next GE? I suspect not, and so I think someone else will be chosen.
    Ed Miliband would be a suicidal move
    If anyone is Labour's Liz Truss, it's Ed Miliband. He's away with the fairies.
    It's sad how triggering the Green Industrial Revolution is for some people.
    The future will be EVs, smart tariffs, an upgraded grid, BESS and more renewable generation, you can try to be in the vanguard with Miliband or you can resist, screaming and kicking, like Kemi, Reform or a bit quieter like the yellow NIMBYs. The end result will be the same, just whether we get there faster willingly or later in a sulk.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 42,408
    @SkyNews

    BREAKING: Conservative Leader Kemi Badenoch says, "Starmer is now in office, but not in power", after his cabinet came out in support of the Prime Minister following the Mandelson scandal
  • isamisam Posts: 43,584

    Selebian said:

    Several commentators have now said we’re going to see Starmer “unconstrained”. It’s really now or never then.

    The buttoned up man is here to stay and he's... Undoing his collar?
    Jack Blackburn 🇺🇦
    @HackBlackburn
    ·
    12h
    I’m hearing that Keir Starmer has been very charismatic in private again

    https://x.com/HackBlackburn/status/2020985054055531007?s=20
    It is surely an insult to the intelligence of the public to try to persuade them that a public figure that has been on tv and social media for the last six years, who has been given extensive media training, is charismatic when nothing anyone has ever seen gives credence to the claim

    Same for the desperate attempt to blame the right wing media for his unpopularity; even polls that show labour doing better than others have his personal ratings in the toilet. It’s always someone else’s fault!
  • LeonLeon Posts: 66,502
    Cicero said:

    I must say the commentators are eating a lot of crow in the press this morning. I hold no love for SKS, but hahahahahahahahahahahaha.

    I'm sorry, you think this is some kind of triumph, worthy of gleeful laughter?!

    As the man says: hahahahahahahahahahah
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 46,558
    I know we should all be concentrating on Oct 7th, oops, I meant Sudan, arrgh, no, Iran, but if Streeting privately thought Israel was a rogue state committing war crimes and ethnic cleansing, and communicated same to not very close friend Mandelson, why the fck didn't he say anything out loud?
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 2,478

    Scott_xP said:

    @aakashgupta

    Ring paid somewhere between $8 and $10 million for a 30-second Super Bowl spot to tell 120 million viewers that their cameras now scan neighborhoods using AI.

    The math is wild. Ring has roughly 20 million devices in American homes. Search Party is enabled by default. The opt-out rate on default settings in consumer tech is historically around 5%. So approximately 19 million cameras are now running AI pattern matching on anything that moves past your front door. Today the target is dogs. The same infrastructure already handles “Familiar Faces,” which builds biometric profiles of every person your camera sees, whether they know about it or not.

    Ring settled with the FTC for $5.8 million after employees had unrestricted access to customers’ bedroom and bathroom footage for years. They’re now partnered with Flock Safety, which routes footage to local law enforcement. ICE has accessed Flock data through local police departments acting as intermediaries. Senator Markey’s investigation found Ring’s privacy protections only apply to device owners. If you’re a neighbor, a delivery driver, a passerby, you have no rights and no recourse.

    This tells you everything about Amazon’s actual product. The customer paid for the camera. The customer pays the electricity. The customer pays the $3.99/month subscription. And Amazon gets a surveillance grid that would cost tens of billions to build from scratch, with an AI layer activated by default, and a law enforcement pipeline already connected.

    They wrapped all of that in a lost puppy commercial because that’s the only version of this story anyone would willingly opt into.

    https://x.com/aakashgupta/status/2021097860490723535?s=20

    Is it though? What of a lost child? Or hunting a rapist/murderer in the style of the Sarah Everard case?

    Not everyone feels the same way about CCTV etc.
    Quite. Found a bag of dog shit on our front step this morning when going out. Some more strewn on the drive so checked the CCTV. Seems it was the local fox had found something to play with at 3:30 in the morning.

    Saved us from blaming the neighbour.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 9,402
    Stocky said:

    theProle said:

    Cliche alert.

    Raynor is a case of turkeys voting for Xmas. Her basic instincts are thoroughly Corbynite and that would we exposed by being PM and in the full glare of media attention. Just like SKS is just so obviously a north London lawyer. But progressives are so self-congratulatory and inward looking these days they don't see it.

    I wonder whether this is Milliband's chance - he protesteth too much imho

    I see Ed Miliband as the steady pair of hands who can safely guide Labour to a respectable defeat and opposition.

    That's preferable to choosing someone who would blow everything up and put Labour in fifth, but are Labour yet reconciled to defeat at the next GE? I suspect not, and so I think someone else will be chosen.
    Ed Miliband would be a suicidal move
    If anyone is Labour's Liz Truss, it's Ed Miliband. He's away with the fairies.
    Miliband is weird. He's a much better political operator than most of the cabinet (see also his avoiding contamination from the Mandy fall out). He actually gets his department to do his bidding (more or less).
    I don't see him crashing the government on the rocks of the bond markets (which is were we're going if Burnham or Rainer get anywhere near no10).

    But - for all that he's effective and grown up, he's also a lunatic. You only have to see his energy policies. Systematically baking in the most expensive energy in the world for a generation, via unbelievably expensive contacts for difference. Chucking cash down the drain on carbon capture and storage. Getting done up like a kipper over Sizewell C and Hinckley point. Failing to sort out rational incentives for the grid to prioritise new connections to the most useful windfarms, whilst letting people carry on building them in Scotland where there isn't a prayer to getting the electricity anywhere useful for a decade. Rejecting regional grid pricing to get people to use electricity near where it's generated... The litany of stupidity goes on and on.
    Miliband is not a lunatic and he is not stupid.

    But he is someone who you (and I) strongly and angrily disagree with. He has no wish to act in the British national interest, which is the source of why so many react against him.
    Rather unfair and lacking in evidence to say that Miliband has 'no wish to act in the British national interest'. He just has a different view from you of what's in our national interest, that's all. I've seen no evidence from Miliband of a lack of patriotism, for want of a better word.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 15,171
    Scott_xP said:

    @SkyNews

    BREAKING: Conservative Leader Kemi Badenoch says, "Starmer is now in office, but not in power", after his cabinet came out in support of the Prime Minister following the Mandelson scandal

    There's an original take, we've never heard before. #gokemi
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,933
    Dopermean said:

    Cliche alert.

    Raynor is a case of turkeys voting for Xmas. Her basic instincts are thoroughly Corbynite and that would we exposed by being PM and in the full glare of media attention. Just like SKS is just so obviously a north London lawyer. But progressives are so self-congratulatory and inward looking these days they don't see it.

    I wonder whether this is Milliband's chance - he protesteth too much imho

    I see Ed Miliband as the steady pair of hands who can safely guide Labour to a respectable defeat and opposition.

    That's preferable to choosing someone who would blow everything up and put Labour in fifth, but are Labour yet reconciled to defeat at the next GE? I suspect not, and so I think someone else will be chosen.
    Ed Miliband would be a suicidal move
    If anyone is Labour's Liz Truss, it's Ed Miliband. He's away with the fairies.
    It's sad how triggering the Green Industrial Revolution is for some people.
    The future will be EVs, smart tariffs, an upgraded grid, BESS and more renewable generation, you can try to be in the vanguard with Miliband or you can resist, screaming and kicking, like Kemi, Reform or a bit quieter like the yellow NIMBYs. The end result will be the same, just whether we get there faster willingly or later in a sulk.
    China recognised the need to kick start investment in EVs more than a decade ago, and look at them now.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 42,408
    @paulhutcheon

    A second Scottish Labour MP backs Anas Sawar in calling for Keir Starmer to quit.

    @Euan4Falkirk

    I agree with @ScottishLabour leader @AnasSarwar yesterday that the Prime Minister should now resign to allow for new leadership for our party and our country.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 59,860

    Scott_xP said:

    @lewis_goodall

    My understanding is that the Cabinet Secretary Chris Wormald has already been sacked, happened yesterday and is only remaining in post to discuss terms.

    Complete No 10 clearout.

    No doubt with a peerage

    Award for failure - they just do not get it do they
    He’s already a Sir, so he’ll be wanting the Peerage or one of the fancy KMGs.

    Oh, and he’s only 55, so he’ll be wanting to leave with the full index-linked pension but a decade early.

    It probably costs a million all-in for the PM to sack him.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 59,860
    edited 10:45AM
    Dopermean said:

    Cliche alert.

    Raynor is a case of turkeys voting for Xmas. Her basic instincts are thoroughly Corbynite and that would we exposed by being PM and in the full glare of media attention. Just like SKS is just so obviously a north London lawyer. But progressives are so self-congratulatory and inward looking these days they don't see it.

    I wonder whether this is Milliband's chance - he protesteth too much imho

    I see Ed Miliband as the steady pair of hands who can safely guide Labour to a respectable defeat and opposition.

    That's preferable to choosing someone who would blow everything up and put Labour in fifth, but are Labour yet reconciled to defeat at the next GE? I suspect not, and so I think someone else will be chosen.
    Ed Miliband would be a suicidal move
    If anyone is Labour's Liz Truss, it's Ed Miliband. He's away with the fairies.
    It's sad how triggering the Green Industrial Revolution is for some people.
    The future will be EVs, smart tariffs, an upgraded grid, BESS and more renewable generation, you can try to be in the vanguard with Miliband or you can resist, screaming and kicking, like Kemi, Reform or a bit quieter like the yellow NIMBYs. The end result will be the same, just whether we get there faster willingly or later in a sulk.
    Tell that to households and businesses currently looking at the world’s highest energy bills.

    That’s why the Green Industrial Revolution is happening in other countries, those with cheap electricity.
  • eekeek Posts: 32,530
    edited 10:46AM
    Sandpit said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @lewis_goodall

    My understanding is that the Cabinet Secretary Chris Wormald has already been sacked, happened yesterday and is only remaining in post to discuss terms.

    Complete No 10 clearout.

    No doubt with a peerage

    Award for failure - they just do not get it do they
    He’s already a Sir, so he’ll be wanting the Peerage or one of the fancy KMGs.

    Oh, and he’s only 55, so he’ll be wanting to leave with the full index-linked pension but a decade early.

    It probably costs a million all-in for the PM to sack him.
    More than that if his pension needs to be topped up and kick in asap
  • LeonLeon Posts: 66,502
    MaxPB said:

    Reading the messages between Streeting and Mandelson is vomit inducing. I don't see how he becomes PM now, he's tainted even more than Starmer IMO having such a close friendship to Mandelson who we now know to have been trading price sensitive information for favours. That Streeting could be blinded by what seems like infatuation for Mandelson shows very, very poor character judgement and should bar him from becoming PM.

    Indeed-doody

    Also, they are the messages of close friends, for sure, and yet at the same time Streeting is claiming he met Mandyboots about "once a year, at formal dinners, with many others"

    It stretches credulity. I think Peerpantsgate has some way to run, yet
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 46,558
    Fuxake, talk about late to the party.

    Euan Stainbank MP
    @Euan4Falkirk
    I agree with @ScottishLabour
    leader @AnasSarwar
    yesterday that the Prime Minister should now resign to allow for new leadership for our party and our country.
    10:10 am · 10 Feb 2026

    https://x.com/Euan4Falkirk/status/2021164803583041569?s=20
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 69,626

    Stocky said:

    theProle said:

    Cliche alert.

    Raynor is a case of turkeys voting for Xmas. Her basic instincts are thoroughly Corbynite and that would we exposed by being PM and in the full glare of media attention. Just like SKS is just so obviously a north London lawyer. But progressives are so self-congratulatory and inward looking these days they don't see it.

    I wonder whether this is Milliband's chance - he protesteth too much imho

    I see Ed Miliband as the steady pair of hands who can safely guide Labour to a respectable defeat and opposition.

    That's preferable to choosing someone who would blow everything up and put Labour in fifth, but are Labour yet reconciled to defeat at the next GE? I suspect not, and so I think someone else will be chosen.
    Ed Miliband would be a suicidal move
    If anyone is Labour's Liz Truss, it's Ed Miliband. He's away with the fairies.
    Miliband is weird. He's a much better political operator than most of the cabinet (see also his avoiding contamination from the Mandy fall out). He actually gets his department to do his bidding (more or less).
    I don't see him crashing the government on the rocks of the bond markets (which is were we're going if Burnham or Rainer get anywhere near no10).

    But - for all that he's effective and grown up, he's also a lunatic. You only have to see his energy policies. Systematically baking in the most expensive energy in the world for a generation, via unbelievably expensive contacts for difference. Chucking cash down the drain on carbon capture and storage. Getting done up like a kipper over Sizewell C and Hinckley point. Failing to sort out rational incentives for the grid to prioritise new connections to the most useful windfarms, whilst letting people carry on building them in Scotland where there isn't a prayer to getting the electricity anywhere useful for a decade. Rejecting regional grid pricing to get people to use electricity near where it's generated... The litany of stupidity goes on and on.
    Miliband is not a lunatic and he is not stupid.

    But he is someone who you (and I) strongly and angrily disagree with. He has no wish to act in the British national interest, which is the source of why so many react against him.
    Rather unfair and lacking in evidence to say that Miliband has 'no wish to act in the British national interest'. He just has a different view from you of what's in our national interest, that's all. I've seen no evidence from Miliband of a lack of patriotism, for want of a better word.
    I agree with you and he does seem a huge improvement on Starmer, though I do not agree with his policies

    He did reject any prospect of standing this am and it did seem genuine
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 57,474



    Dopermean said:

    Cliche alert.

    Raynor is a case of turkeys voting for Xmas. Her basic instincts are thoroughly Corbynite and that would we exposed by being PM and in the full glare of media attention. Just like SKS is just so obviously a north London lawyer. But progressives are so self-congratulatory and inward looking these days they don't see it.

    I wonder whether this is Milliband's chance - he protesteth too much imho

    I see Ed Miliband as the steady pair of hands who can safely guide Labour to a respectable defeat and opposition.

    That's preferable to choosing someone who would blow everything up and put Labour in fifth, but are Labour yet reconciled to defeat at the next GE? I suspect not, and so I think someone else will be chosen.
    Ed Miliband would be a suicidal move
    If anyone is Labour's Liz Truss, it's Ed Miliband. He's away with the fairies.
    It's sad how triggering the Green Industrial Revolution is for some people.
    The future will be EVs, smart tariffs, an upgraded grid, BESS and more renewable generation, you can try to be in the vanguard with Miliband or you can resist, screaming and kicking, like Kemi, Reform or a bit quieter like the yellow NIMBYs. The end result will be the same, just whether we get there faster willingly or later in a sulk.
    China recognised the need to kick start investment in EVs more than a decade ago, and look at them now.
    And they did not do it by moralising about how energy is produced, making it as expensive as possible and encouraging people to use less of it. They did it by massively expanding their CO2 emissions and building as much new coal capacity as necessary.

    The focus on 'net' zero has been disastrously wrong-headed.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 86,248

    Nigelb said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Why is John Healey not higher? As an outsider to Labour, I'd be expecting him to be a far better candidate than those ahead of him.

    Healey is the sensible choice for the country.

    Which means that Labour MPs and Labour members will have no interest in nominating him.

    Keeping Starmer in place is preferable to replacing him with Miliband or Rayner.
    In what respect is Healey greatly different from Starmer ?
    I've nothing against the guy, but I'm unaware of any notable achievements.

    And it's time for a reminder that the Defence Review was published at the beginning of June last year.
    The Defence Investment Plan, intended to set out spending priorities for the next decade, was due last autumn. Still crickets.
    He's just Baldy Ben with a less catastrophic cholesterol level, presiding over the same torpor and dysfunction at the MoD.

    Why he's anybody's idea of a PM is beyond me. Labour's challenge is to sell occasionally unpalatable reform to the MPs and then sell it again to the electorate as what they need and want. That takes a big personality and some degree of personal charm. Healey has the personality and charm of a Minecraft Creeper so we can cross him off.
    Little Tom Tugendhat has a recent series of substance articles which suggests he's actually thinking seriously about our future defence priorities.
    Here's one.
    https://thereset63.substack.com/p/eight-days-then-its-over
    I'm not particularly concerned about Britain having low stockpiles of munitions. I'd hope most munitions production was focused on supplying Ukraine rather than filling warehouses in Britain.

    That increased spending on nuclear weapons is more than consuming the modest increases in defence spending is concerning, though. Forget about Healy becoming PM. He ought to have resigned rather than accept such a budget settlement. In the current geopolitical circumstances it is suicidal to be reducing spending on conventional military capability.

    I thought the situation was that Britain was moving in the right direction, but too slowly. It is so much worse than that.
    I am.
    It means that everything we field - artillery; aircraft; ships; air defence - is of use only for the shortest of conflicts.

    Our army isn't really a priority. In the European context it's basically an irrelevancy and will remain so for the rest of the decade; and it's unlikely we're going to fight a land war on home soil.

    But the hollowing out of the navy and airforce is of much more significance. And precious little of that kit is supplied to Ukraine.

    The shortfall is as much in production capacity as it is in stocks of munitions - and the production capacity won't ever exist unless we order significant amounts.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 86,248
    edited 10:48AM

    Starmer's allies worry that Streeting publushing his whats app messages exposes them all to do the same

    I know its Hodges but you can see the point

    https://x.com/i/status/2021146435106861537

    Fine typo/neologism.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 21,573
    edited 10:50AM

    Stocky said:

    theProle said:

    Cliche alert.

    Raynor is a case of turkeys voting for Xmas. Her basic instincts are thoroughly Corbynite and that would we exposed by being PM and in the full glare of media attention. Just like SKS is just so obviously a north London lawyer. But progressives are so self-congratulatory and inward looking these days they don't see it.

    I wonder whether this is Milliband's chance - he protesteth too much imho

    I see Ed Miliband as the steady pair of hands who can safely guide Labour to a respectable defeat and opposition.

    That's preferable to choosing someone who would blow everything up and put Labour in fifth, but are Labour yet reconciled to defeat at the next GE? I suspect not, and so I think someone else will be chosen.
    Ed Miliband would be a suicidal move
    If anyone is Labour's Liz Truss, it's Ed Miliband. He's away with the fairies.
    Miliband is weird. He's a much better political operator than most of the cabinet (see also his avoiding contamination from the Mandy fall out). He actually gets his department to do his bidding (more or less).
    I don't see him crashing the government on the rocks of the bond markets (which is were we're going if Burnham or Rainer get anywhere near no10).

    But - for all that he's effective and grown up, he's also a lunatic. You only have to see his energy policies. Systematically baking in the most expensive energy in the world for a generation, via unbelievably expensive contacts for difference. Chucking cash down the drain on carbon capture and storage. Getting done up like a kipper over Sizewell C and Hinckley point. Failing to sort out rational incentives for the grid to prioritise new connections to the most useful windfarms, whilst letting people carry on building them in Scotland where there isn't a prayer to getting the electricity anywhere useful for a decade. Rejecting regional grid pricing to get people to use electricity near where it's generated... The litany of stupidity goes on and on.
    Miliband is not a lunatic and he is not stupid.

    But he is someone who you (and I) strongly and angrily disagree with. He has no wish to act in the British national interest, which is the source of why so many react against him.
    Rather unfair and lacking in evidence to say that Miliband has 'no wish to act in the British national interest'. He just has a different view from you of what's in our national interest, that's all. I've seen no evidence from Miliband of a lack of patriotism, for want of a better word.
    One of the things that smug old-school Conservatives used to say was 'Our opponents hate us and think that we are evil. We don't hate our opponents, we just think they are mistaken.'

    It was smug... it was very smug...

    But we could do with some of that spirit back.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 42,408
    @GuidoFawkes
    Welsh First Minister Eluned Morgan breaks silence to (sort of) back Starmer:

    "I support the Prime Minister in the job he was elected to do. After years of revolving-door leadership under the Conservatives, the country needs stability in an age of instability, and that matters for Wales.

    I had concerns that Peter Mandelson was incompatible with public office because of the company he kept. What has since come to light has only reinforced those concerns.

    These issues are deeply troubling not least because, once again, the voices of women and girls were ignored. That failure must be acknowledged and confronted honestly.

    Leadership means upholding standards and acting when they fall short. Ultimately, I judge any Prime Minister by a simple test: whether they deliver for Wales. I have been clear with Keir about what Wales needs. Action on the cost of living, investment in our economy and infrastructure, and a continued commitment to stronger devolution.

    My focus remains on leading Wales with integrity and delivering real change for people here."
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 59,860
    edited 10:51AM
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Why is John Healey not higher? As an outsider to Labour, I'd be expecting him to be a far better candidate than those ahead of him.

    Healey is the sensible choice for the country.

    Which means that Labour MPs and Labour members will have no interest in nominating him.

    Keeping Starmer in place is preferable to replacing him with Miliband or Rayner.
    In what respect is Healey greatly different from Starmer ?
    I've nothing against the guy, but I'm unaware of any notable achievements.

    And it's time for a reminder that the Defence Review was published at the beginning of June last year.
    The Defence Investment Plan, intended to set out spending priorities for the next decade, was due last autumn. Still crickets.
    He's just Baldy Ben with a less catastrophic cholesterol level, presiding over the same torpor and dysfunction at the MoD.

    Why he's anybody's idea of a PM is beyond me. Labour's challenge is to sell occasionally unpalatable reform to the MPs and then sell it again to the electorate as what they need and want. That takes a big personality and some degree of personal charm. Healey has the personality and charm of a Minecraft Creeper so we can cross him off.
    Little Tom Tugendhat has a recent series of substance articles which suggests he's actually thinking seriously about our future defence priorities.
    Here's one.
    https://thereset63.substack.com/p/eight-days-then-its-over
    I'm not particularly concerned about Britain having low stockpiles of munitions. I'd hope most munitions production was focused on supplying Ukraine rather than filling warehouses in Britain.

    That increased spending on nuclear weapons is more than consuming the modest increases in defence spending is concerning, though. Forget about Healy becoming PM. He ought to have resigned rather than accept such a budget settlement. In the current geopolitical circumstances it is suicidal to be reducing spending on conventional military capability.

    I thought the situation was that Britain was moving in the right direction, but too slowly. It is so much worse than that.
    I am.
    It means that everything we field - artillery; aircraft; ships; air defence - is of use only for the shortest of conflicts.

    Our army isn't really a priority. In the European context it's basically an irrelevancy and will remain so for the rest of the decade; and it's unlikely we're going to fight a land war on home soil.

    But the hollowing out of the navy and airforce is of much more significance. And precious little of that kit is supplied to Ukraine.

    The shortfall is as much in production capacity as it is in stocks of munitions - and the production capacity won't ever exist unless we order significant amounts.
    It’s not just the UK either, it’s the same everywhere. Even US capacity to build stuff like ammunition is well behind where it should be.

    It’s almost as if no-one has noticed there’s a war on in Eastern Europe at the moment. Nothing is more important right now than getting defence right. Not that there hasn’t been some progress, but it’s nowhere near enough.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 35,115

    Thanks for the header - despite the febrile atmosphere of yesterday it seems that Starmer is going to stay for as long as possible.

    And arguably the biggest contenders to the position of Labour leader will have to give him that time. Rayner needs to get past the HMRC investigation, Streeting needs to put a bit of time between him and Mandelson. That leaves Milliband - who has said he ain’t keen - as the one who arguably could take the position tomorrow. Burnham remains not an MP.

    I guess the question then becomes how much time do the two main contenders need to get beyond their own local difficulties? Will three months be enough? Or are we talking six or a year?

    It’s the same thing in all the traditional major parties - no one really wants the crown.

    Conservatives, Labour or Lib Dem - what will a successor get? Apart from blame? As opposed to after the next election?
    You ask what a successor will get now as opposed to after the next election.

    Labour – three years as Prime Minister, which is as long as Theresa May, Gordon Brown, or Boris got; a place in history. The other parties – two years of nothing before being deposed themselves.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 66,502
    Nigelb said:

    Starmer's allies worry that Streeting publushing his whats app messages exposes them all to do the same

    I know its Hodges but you can see the point

    https://x.com/i/status/2021146435106861537

    Fine typo/neologism.
    Surely that was, in part, the point of Streeting releasing the messages. It forces others to do the same, reveals they too were close buddies with Lord Mandypants, and thus takes some of the heat OFF The Wez
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 69,626
    Scott_xP said:

    @GuidoFawkes
    Welsh First Minister Eluned Morgan breaks silence to (sort of) back Starmer:

    "I support the Prime Minister in the job he was elected to do. After years of revolving-door leadership under the Conservatives, the country needs stability in an age of instability, and that matters for Wales.

    I had concerns that Peter Mandelson was incompatible with public office because of the company he kept. What has since come to light has only reinforced those concerns.

    These issues are deeply troubling not least because, once again, the voices of women and girls were ignored. That failure must be acknowledged and confronted honestly.

    Leadership means upholding standards and acting when they fall short. Ultimately, I judge any Prime Minister by a simple test: whether they deliver for Wales. I have been clear with Keir about what Wales needs. Action on the cost of living, investment in our economy and infrastructure, and a continued commitment to stronger devolution.

    My focus remains on leading Wales with integrity and delivering real change for people here."

    She only has until May when she will be the former Welsh first minister
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 86,248
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Nigelb said:

    Sandpit said:

    Why is John Healey not higher? As an outsider to Labour, I'd be expecting him to be a far better candidate than those ahead of him.

    Healey is the sensible choice for the country.

    Which means that Labour MPs and Labour members will have no interest in nominating him.

    Keeping Starmer in place is preferable to replacing him with Miliband or Rayner.
    In what respect is Healey greatly different from Starmer ?
    I've nothing against the guy, but I'm unaware of any notable achievements.

    And it's time for a reminder that the Defence Review was published at the beginning of June last year.
    The Defence Investment Plan, intended to set out spending priorities for the next decade, was due last autumn. Still crickets.
    He's just Baldy Ben with a less catastrophic cholesterol level, presiding over the same torpor and dysfunction at the MoD.

    Why he's anybody's idea of a PM is beyond me. Labour's challenge is to sell occasionally unpalatable reform to the MPs and then sell it again to the electorate as what they need and want. That takes a big personality and some degree of personal charm. Healey has the personality and charm of a Minecraft Creeper so we can cross him off.
    Little Tom Tugendhat has a recent series of substance articles which suggests he's actually thinking seriously about our future defence priorities.
    Here's one.
    https://thereset63.substack.com/p/eight-days-then-its-over
    I'm not particularly concerned about Britain having low stockpiles of munitions. I'd hope most munitions production was focused on supplying Ukraine rather than filling warehouses in Britain.

    That increased spending on nuclear weapons is more than consuming the modest increases in defence spending is concerning, though. Forget about Healy becoming PM. He ought to have resigned rather than accept such a budget settlement. In the current geopolitical circumstances it is suicidal to be reducing spending on conventional military capability.

    I thought the situation was that Britain was moving in the right direction, but too slowly. It is so much worse than that.
    I am.
    It means that everything we field - artillery; aircraft; ships; air defence - is of use only for the shortest of conflicts.

    Our army isn't really a priority. In the European context it's basically an irrelevancy and will remain so for the rest of the decade; and it's unlikely we're going to fight a land war on home soil.

    But the hollowing out of the navy and airforce is of much more significance. And precious little of that kit is supplied to Ukraine.

    The shortfall is as much in production capacity as it is in stocks of munitions - and the production capacity won't ever exist unless we order significant amounts.
    That's actually the one silver lining,
    It means that we can simply cancel Ajax and not worry about a replacement for the rest of this parliament at least (and set the lawyers onto GDLS).
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 59,860

    Stocky said:

    theProle said:

    Cliche alert.

    Raynor is a case of turkeys voting for Xmas. Her basic instincts are thoroughly Corbynite and that would we exposed by being PM and in the full glare of media attention. Just like SKS is just so obviously a north London lawyer. But progressives are so self-congratulatory and inward looking these days they don't see it.

    I wonder whether this is Milliband's chance - he protesteth too much imho

    I see Ed Miliband as the steady pair of hands who can safely guide Labour to a respectable defeat and opposition.

    That's preferable to choosing someone who would blow everything up and put Labour in fifth, but are Labour yet reconciled to defeat at the next GE? I suspect not, and so I think someone else will be chosen.
    Ed Miliband would be a suicidal move
    If anyone is Labour's Liz Truss, it's Ed Miliband. He's away with the fairies.
    Miliband is weird. He's a much better political operator than most of the cabinet (see also his avoiding contamination from the Mandy fall out). He actually gets his department to do his bidding (more or less).
    I don't see him crashing the government on the rocks of the bond markets (which is were we're going if Burnham or Rainer get anywhere near no10).

    But - for all that he's effective and grown up, he's also a lunatic. You only have to see his energy policies. Systematically baking in the most expensive energy in the world for a generation, via unbelievably expensive contacts for difference. Chucking cash down the drain on carbon capture and storage. Getting done up like a kipper over Sizewell C and Hinckley point. Failing to sort out rational incentives for the grid to prioritise new connections to the most useful windfarms, whilst letting people carry on building them in Scotland where there isn't a prayer to getting the electricity anywhere useful for a decade. Rejecting regional grid pricing to get people to use electricity near where it's generated... The litany of stupidity goes on and on.
    Miliband is not a lunatic and he is not stupid.

    But he is someone who you (and I) strongly and angrily disagree with. He has no wish to act in the British national interest, which is the source of why so many react against him.
    Rather unfair and lacking in evidence to say that Miliband has 'no wish to act in the British national interest'. He just has a different view from you of what's in our national interest, that's all. I've seen no evidence from Miliband of a lack of patriotism, for want of a better word.
    One of the things that smug old-school Conservatives used to say was 'Our opponents hate us and think that we are evil. We don't hate our opponents, we just think they are mistaken.'

    It was smug... it was very smug...

    But we could do with some of that spirit back.
    That’s fair. Miliband isn’t evil, but he is very misguided about where his department’s goals need to lie, with the results of very expensive energy and job losses overseas.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 66,502
    Scott_xP said:

    @GuidoFawkes
    Welsh First Minister Eluned Morgan breaks silence to (sort of) back Starmer:

    "I support the Prime Minister in the job he was elected to do. After years of revolving-door leadership under the Conservatives, the country needs stability in an age of instability, and that matters for Wales.

    I had concerns that Peter Mandelson was incompatible with public office because of the company he kept. What has since come to light has only reinforced those concerns.

    These issues are deeply troubling not least because, once again, the voices of women and girls were ignored. That failure must be acknowledged and confronted honestly.

    Leadership means upholding standards and acting when they fall short. Ultimately, I judge any Prime Minister by a simple test: whether they deliver for Wales. I have been clear with Keir about what Wales needs. Action on the cost of living, investment in our economy and infrastructure, and a continued commitment to stronger devolution.

    My focus remains on leading Wales with integrity and delivering real change for people here."

    That's magnificently feeble

    "I support the Prime Minister in the job he was elected to do."

    "I too like bread, and I like to eat several other things"



  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 13,364
    edited 10:56AM
    Dopermean said:

    Cliche alert.

    Raynor is a case of turkeys voting for Xmas. Her basic instincts are thoroughly Corbynite and that would we exposed by being PM and in the full glare of media attention. Just like SKS is just so obviously a north London lawyer. But progressives are so self-congratulatory and inward looking these days they don't see it.

    I wonder whether this is Milliband's chance - he protesteth too much imho

    I see Ed Miliband as the steady pair of hands who can safely guide Labour to a respectable defeat and opposition.

    That's preferable to choosing someone who would blow everything up and put Labour in fifth, but are Labour yet reconciled to defeat at the next GE? I suspect not, and so I think someone else will be chosen.
    Ed Miliband would be a suicidal move
    If anyone is Labour's Liz Truss, it's Ed Miliband. He's away with the fairies.
    It's sad how triggering the Green Industrial Revolution is for some people.
    The future will be EVs, smart tariffs, an upgraded grid, BESS and more renewable generation, you can try to be in the vanguard with Miliband or you can resist, screaming and kicking, like Kemi, Reform or a bit quieter like the yellow NIMBYs. The end result will be the same, just whether we get there faster willingly or later in a sulk.
    The problem is Miliband isn't the vanguard. That the Telegraph (and friends) has gone completely and irrationally hysterical over him rather disguises this.

    If he were, we'd have no standing charges, taxes on electricity would have been migrated over to gas and fuel duties, we'd all be on 30-minute variable tariffs, and pricing would reflect the cost of generation and transmission in different parts of the country. We'd have significant investment in EV infrastructure and aggressive carbon taxes on imports to protect our industries.

    Contrary to the the hysterics, Miliband so far has had next to zero impact on energy policy compared with the course set by the prior Conservative government.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 69,626
    Nigelb said:

    Starmer's allies worry that Streeting publushing his whats app messages exposes them all to do the same

    I know its Hodges but you can see the point

    https://x.com/i/status/2021146435106861537

    Fine typo/neologism.
    I am struggling with my arthritic fingers and it's not getting better sadly

    I may provide more amusing typo's going forward
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 15,234
    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Starmer's allies worry that Streeting publushing his whats app messages exposes them all to do the same

    I know its Hodges but you can see the point

    https://x.com/i/status/2021146435106861537

    Fine typo/neologism.
    Surely that was, in part, the point of Streeting releasing the messages. It forces others to do the same, reveals they too were close buddies with Lord Mandypants, and thus takes some of the heat OFF The Wez
    Hodges and others reporting cabinet have been instructed not to release as there is some idea floating about revisiting the humble address to restrict what is released (as the newly super popular Keir thinks he can win a vote)
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 13,364
    Eabhal said:

    Dopermean said:

    Cliche alert.

    Raynor is a case of turkeys voting for Xmas. Her basic instincts are thoroughly Corbynite and that would we exposed by being PM and in the full glare of media attention. Just like SKS is just so obviously a north London lawyer. But progressives are so self-congratulatory and inward looking these days they don't see it.

    I wonder whether this is Milliband's chance - he protesteth too much imho

    I see Ed Miliband as the steady pair of hands who can safely guide Labour to a respectable defeat and opposition.

    That's preferable to choosing someone who would blow everything up and put Labour in fifth, but are Labour yet reconciled to defeat at the next GE? I suspect not, and so I think someone else will be chosen.
    Ed Miliband would be a suicidal move
    If anyone is Labour's Liz Truss, it's Ed Miliband. He's away with the fairies.
    It's sad how triggering the Green Industrial Revolution is for some people.
    The future will be EVs, smart tariffs, an upgraded grid, BESS and more renewable generation, you can try to be in the vanguard with Miliband or you can resist, screaming and kicking, like Kemi, Reform or a bit quieter like the yellow NIMBYs. The end result will be the same, just whether we get there faster willingly or later in a sulk.
    The problem is Miliband isn't the vanguard. That the Telegraph (and friends) has gone completely and irrationally hysterical over him rather disguises this.

    If he were, we'd have no standing charges, taxes on electricity would have been migrated over to gas and fuel duties, we'd all be on 30-minute variable tariffs, and pricing would reflect the cost of generation and transmission in different parts of the country. We'd have significant investment in EV infrastructure and aggressive carbon taxes on imports to protect our industries.

    Contrary to the the hysterics, Miliband so far has had next to zero impact on energy policy compared with the course set by the prior Conservative government.
    OTOH, some good news today with lots of exceptionally cheap solar and onshore wind being approved. And relative to other energy projects, should be up and running quickly.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 22,367
    Dura_Ace said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @SkyNews

    BREAKING: Conservative Leader Kemi Badenoch says, "Starmer is now in office, but not in power", after his cabinet came out in support of the Prime Minister following the Mandelson scandal

    There's an original take, we've never heard before. #gokemi
    Sometimes the old tunes are the best, and there's no point in trying (ineptly) to innovate for the sake of it.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 69,626

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Starmer's allies worry that Streeting publushing his whats app messages exposes them all to do the same

    I know its Hodges but you can see the point

    https://x.com/i/status/2021146435106861537

    Fine typo/neologism.
    Surely that was, in part, the point of Streeting releasing the messages. It forces others to do the same, reveals they too were close buddies with Lord Mandypants, and thus takes some of the heat OFF The Wez
    Hodges and others reporting cabinet have been instructed not to release as there is some idea floating about revisiting the humble address to restrict what is released (as the newly super popular Keir thinks he can win a vote)
    Kemi has just highlighted this in an interview, and I would expect her to tell Starmer at PMQs tomorrow to reveal his own text messages
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 35,115
    Big_Ian said:

    Selebian said:

    Several commentators have now said we’re going to see Starmer “unconstrained”. It’s really now or never then.

    The buttoned up man is here to stay and he's... Undoing his collar?
    Jack Blackburn 🇺🇦
    @HackBlackburn
    ·
    12h
    I’m hearing that Keir Starmer has been very charismatic in private again

    https://x.com/HackBlackburn/status/2020985054055531007?s=20
    You dont know my Keir, he goes to a different school
    We know that's bullshit. The one thing Starmer isn't is charismatic.
    He's going to be an answer on Pointless one day.
    There was, some time ago, a Pointless round on 20th Century prime ministers and it was notable that some contestants relied on memory rather than historical knowledge, but of course, the way history is taught or not taught makes that inevitable.
    https://www.youtube.com/shorts/jiK_4z37R0o (90s clip)
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AQsZ5TPIle0 (full 11 minutes)
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 15,234

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Starmer's allies worry that Streeting publushing his whats app messages exposes them all to do the same

    I know its Hodges but you can see the point

    https://x.com/i/status/2021146435106861537

    Fine typo/neologism.
    Surely that was, in part, the point of Streeting releasing the messages. It forces others to do the same, reveals they too were close buddies with Lord Mandypants, and thus takes some of the heat OFF The Wez
    Hodges and others reporting cabinet have been instructed not to release as there is some idea floating about revisiting the humble address to restrict what is released (as the newly super popular Keir thinks he can win a vote)
    Kemi has just highlighted this in an interview, and I would expect her to tell Starmer at PMQs tomorrow to reveal his own text messages
    If Labour now initiate a cover up then i would expect it to impact polling.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 66,502

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Starmer's allies worry that Streeting publushing his whats app messages exposes them all to do the same

    I know its Hodges but you can see the point

    https://x.com/i/status/2021146435106861537

    Fine typo/neologism.
    Surely that was, in part, the point of Streeting releasing the messages. It forces others to do the same, reveals they too were close buddies with Lord Mandypants, and thus takes some of the heat OFF The Wez
    Hodges and others reporting cabinet have been instructed not to release as there is some idea floating about revisiting the humble address to restrict what is released (as the newly super popular Keir thinks he can win a vote)
    This is just going to drag on and get worse, and worse, for Labour

    It would have been painful, but the best result for them was what @TheScreamingEagles suggested last night: briskly get rid of Starmer then have someone uncontroversial coronated. Maybe Cooper. Just get it done. Then steady the ship, and ditch the worst of Starmer's stupider policies

    But no. He's still there in Number 10, like a half dead rat in a cistern, poisoning the water for everyone

  • theProletheProle Posts: 1,694
    edited 11:08AM
    Dopermean said:

    Cliche alert.

    Raynor is a case of turkeys voting for Xmas. Her basic instincts are thoroughly Corbynite and that would we exposed by being PM and in the full glare of media attention. Just like SKS is just so obviously a north London lawyer. But progressives are so self-congratulatory and inward looking these days they don't see it.

    I wonder whether this is Milliband's chance - he protesteth too much imho

    I see Ed Miliband as the steady pair of hands who can safely guide Labour to a respectable defeat and opposition.

    That's preferable to choosing someone who would blow everything up and put Labour in fifth, but are Labour yet reconciled to defeat at the next GE? I suspect not, and so I think someone else will be chosen.
    Ed Miliband would be a suicidal move
    If anyone is Labour's Liz Truss, it's Ed Miliband. He's away with the fairies.
    It's sad how triggering the Green Industrial Revolution is for some people.
    The future will be EVs, smart tariffs, an upgraded grid, BESS and more renewable generation, you can try to be in the vanguard with Miliband or you can resist, screaming and kicking, like Kemi, Reform or a bit quieter like the yellow NIMBYs. The end result will be the same, just whether we get there faster willingly or later in a sulk.
    I think quite a lot of us aren't necessarily particularly opposed to all that as a long term destination.

    The problem is that Miliband's chosen route to this destination is a particularly poor one.

    Just take nuclear. We could get the Koreans to build us half a dozen standard reactors for the cost of Hinckley Point. But no, having seen Hinckley Point become a complete debacle, we've contracted the French to build Sizewell C at an even more outlandish price, and with pretty much all the risks dumped on the UK government (much more so that Hinckley point, where EDF have had to at least take a share of the losses). What a masterstroke.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 57,804

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Starmer's allies worry that Streeting publushing his whats app messages exposes them all to do the same

    I know its Hodges but you can see the point

    https://x.com/i/status/2021146435106861537

    Fine typo/neologism.
    Surely that was, in part, the point of Streeting releasing the messages. It forces others to do the same, reveals they too were close buddies with Lord Mandypants, and thus takes some of the heat OFF The Wez
    Hodges and others reporting cabinet have been instructed not to release as there is some idea floating about revisiting the humble address to restrict what is released (as the newly super popular Keir thinks he can win a vote)
    On the other hand, Strreeting has shown there is a paper trail to Mandelson. What chance Starmer thinks he is being clever on the humble address, only for it to blow up as a "he is now trying to hide the truth!!!" scandal?
  • CookieCookie Posts: 16,832
    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @GuidoFawkes
    Welsh First Minister Eluned Morgan breaks silence to (sort of) back Starmer:

    "I support the Prime Minister in the job he was elected to do. After years of revolving-door leadership under the Conservatives, the country needs stability in an age of instability, and that matters for Wales.

    I had concerns that Peter Mandelson was incompatible with public office because of the company he kept. What has since come to light has only reinforced those concerns.

    These issues are deeply troubling not least because, once again, the voices of women and girls were ignored. That failure must be acknowledged and confronted honestly.

    Leadership means upholding standards and acting when they fall short. Ultimately, I judge any Prime Minister by a simple test: whether they deliver for Wales. I have been clear with Keir about what Wales needs. Action on the cost of living, investment in our economy and infrastructure, and a continued commitment to stronger devolution.

    My focus remains on leading Wales with integrity and delivering real change for people here."

    That's magnificently feeble

    "I support the Prime Minister in the job he was elected to do."

    "I too like bread, and I like to eat several other things"



    Anas Sarwar must be bristling. "You go first Anas, I'll back you up. I'm sure the others will too. ... Oh, none of them are coming. Actually, I've changed my mind..."
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 35,115
    80 seconds of AC on TRiP being not a fan of the Melania film. What I'd not realised is how much of Amazon's money went straight into Melania's back pocket.
    https://www.youtube.com/shorts/Ok9ex4lGUa8
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 46,558

    Dura_Ace said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @SkyNews

    BREAKING: Conservative Leader Kemi Badenoch says, "Starmer is now in office, but not in power", after his cabinet came out in support of the Prime Minister following the Mandelson scandal

    There's an original take, we've never heard before. #gokemi
    Sometimes the old tunes are the best, and there's no point in trying (ineptly) to innovate for the sake of it.
    Used to be the USP of the Conservatives.
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 2,275
    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Reading the messages between Streeting and Mandelson is vomit inducing. I don't see how he becomes PM now, he's tainted even more than Starmer IMO having such a close friendship to Mandelson who we now know to have been trading price sensitive information for favours. That Streeting could be blinded by what seems like infatuation for Mandelson shows very, very poor character judgement and should bar him from becoming PM.

    Indeed-doody

    Also, they are the messages of close friends, for sure, and yet at the same time Streeting is claiming he met Mandyboots about "once a year, at formal dinners, with many others"

    It stretches credulity. I think Peerpantsgate has some way to run, yet
    The problem with the Epstein files is that the vast amount of information means that only a few people will be investigated and then only those who media organizations will spend money on investigating. The FT already had most of the story on Mandelson, so knew what to search for, the latest Andrew revelations were researched by a member of the public. No news organization dependent on advertising revenue will be motivated to spend money searching the archive for evidence on tech moguls, for example.
    People guilty of horrific acts will escape justice because there aren't the resources and motivation to sort through the evidence and the news cycle will have moved on.

    It's the MPs expenses scandal but on a massively larger scale.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 16,832

    Fuxake, talk about late to the party.

    Euan Stainbank MP
    @Euan4Falkirk
    I agree with @ScottishLabour
    leader @AnasSarwar
    yesterday that the Prime Minister should now resign to allow for new leadership for our party and our country.
    10:10 am · 10 Feb 2026

    https://x.com/Euan4Falkirk/status/2021164803583041569?s=20

    Haha - he's clearly been off for the day and is now going through his messages in chronological order rather than reverse chronological. He's going to feel a bit daft when he catches up.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 21,856
    Scott_xP said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @aakashgupta

    Ring paid somewhere between $8 and $10 million for a 30-second Super Bowl spot to tell 120 million viewers that their cameras now scan neighborhoods using AI.

    The math is wild. Ring has roughly 20 million devices in American homes. Search Party is enabled by default. The opt-out rate on default settings in consumer tech is historically around 5%. So approximately 19 million cameras are now running AI pattern matching on anything that moves past your front door. Today the target is dogs. The same infrastructure already handles “Familiar Faces,” which builds biometric profiles of every person your camera sees, whether they know about it or not.

    Ring settled with the FTC for $5.8 million after employees had unrestricted access to customers’ bedroom and bathroom footage for years. They’re now partnered with Flock Safety, which routes footage to local law enforcement. ICE has accessed Flock data through local police departments acting as intermediaries. Senator Markey’s investigation found Ring’s privacy protections only apply to device owners. If you’re a neighbor, a delivery driver, a passerby, you have no rights and no recourse.

    This tells you everything about Amazon’s actual product. The customer paid for the camera. The customer pays the electricity. The customer pays the $3.99/month subscription. And Amazon gets a surveillance grid that would cost tens of billions to build from scratch, with an AI layer activated by default, and a law enforcement pipeline already connected.

    They wrapped all of that in a lost puppy commercial because that’s the only version of this story anyone would willingly opt into.

    https://x.com/aakashgupta/status/2021097860490723535?s=20

    Is it though? What of a lost child? Or hunting a rapist/murderer in the style of the Sarah Everard case?

    Not everyone feels the same way about CCTV etc.
    "If you have nothing to hide you have nothing to fear..."

    So a child goes missing, and you are identified as a person of interest because you were walking past their door at around the same time

    You would be lucky to escape the mob
    Nonsense on stilts. CCTV didn't finger Christopher Jeffries - that was because in lived in the same building and looked a bit weird.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 17,731

    Thanks for the header - despite the febrile atmosphere of yesterday it seems that Starmer is going to stay for as long as possible.

    And arguably the biggest contenders to the position of Labour leader will have to give him that time. Rayner needs to get past the HMRC investigation, Streeting needs to put a bit of time between him and Mandelson. That leaves Milliband - who has said he ain’t keen - as the one who arguably could take the position tomorrow. Burnham remains not an MP.

    I guess the question then becomes how much time do the two main contenders need to get beyond their own local difficulties? Will three months be enough? Or are we talking six or a year?

    Jim please lurk less, we could do with this kind of sensible and sober talk on here.
    To some of the rest of you, in the words of Taylor: "you need to calm down".
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 15,234
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Starmer's allies worry that Streeting publushing his whats app messages exposes them all to do the same

    I know its Hodges but you can see the point

    https://x.com/i/status/2021146435106861537

    Fine typo/neologism.
    Surely that was, in part, the point of Streeting releasing the messages. It forces others to do the same, reveals they too were close buddies with Lord Mandypants, and thus takes some of the heat OFF The Wez
    Hodges and others reporting cabinet have been instructed not to release as there is some idea floating about revisiting the humble address to restrict what is released (as the newly super popular Keir thinks he can win a vote)
    This is just going to drag on and get worse, and worse, for Labour

    It would have been painful, but the best result for them was what @TheScreamingEagles suggested last night: briskly get rid of Starmer then have someone uncontroversial coronated. Maybe Cooper. Just get it done. Then steady the ship, and ditch the worst of Starmer's stupider policies

    But no. He's still there in Number 10, like a half dead rat in a cistern, poisoning the water for everyone

    Its all a bit Emporers New Popularity.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 32,018
    edited 11:09AM
    Scott_xP said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @aakashgupta

    Ring paid somewhere between $8 and $10 million for a 30-second Super Bowl spot to tell 120 million viewers that their cameras now scan neighborhoods using AI.

    The math is wild. Ring has roughly 20 million devices in American homes. Search Party is enabled by default. The opt-out rate on default settings in consumer tech is historically around 5%. So approximately 19 million cameras are now running AI pattern matching on anything that moves past your front door. Today the target is dogs. The same infrastructure already handles “Familiar Faces,” which builds biometric profiles of every person your camera sees, whether they know about it or not.

    Ring settled with the FTC for $5.8 million after employees had unrestricted access to customers’ bedroom and bathroom footage for years. They’re now partnered with Flock Safety, which routes footage to local law enforcement. ICE has accessed Flock data through local police departments acting as intermediaries. Senator Markey’s investigation found Ring’s privacy protections only apply to device owners. If you’re a neighbor, a delivery driver, a passerby, you have no rights and no recourse.

    This tells you everything about Amazon’s actual product. The customer paid for the camera. The customer pays the electricity. The customer pays the $3.99/month subscription. And Amazon gets a surveillance grid that would cost tens of billions to build from scratch, with an AI layer activated by default, and a law enforcement pipeline already connected.

    They wrapped all of that in a lost puppy commercial because that’s the only version of this story anyone would willingly opt into.

    https://x.com/aakashgupta/status/2021097860490723535?s=20

    Is it though? What of a lost child? Or hunting a rapist/murderer in the style of the Sarah Everard case?

    Not everyone feels the same way about CCTV etc.
    "If you have nothing to hide you have nothing to fear..."

    So a child goes missing, and you are identified as a person of interest because you were walking past their door at around the same time

    You would be lucky to escape the mob
    See China.
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