Rayner coming out behind Starmer along with most of the Cabinet and more strongly than Streeting, whose Mandelson emails were in the news yesterday probably boosts her a bit in the next PM stakes. However after Cabinet support and a good PLP meeting yesterday Starmer is likely at least secure until the May local and devolved elections and beyond if Labour beat the Tories for second
He's chatting to Nick Robinson currently expressing his total confidence in Kier. Hasn't mentioned that he declined to give Mandy a job when he was leader, yet. Slight slip up on his timeline "For twenty years this country has been run for the rich and powerful", his aide must be furiously screaming 14 in the background.
He's chatting to Nick Robinson currently expressing his total confidence in Kier. Hasn't mentioned that he declined to give Mandy a job when he was leader, yet.* Slight slip up on his timeline "For twenty years this country has been run for the rich and powerful", his aide must be furiously screaming 14 in the background.
He's chatting to Nick Robinson currently expressing his total confidence in Kier. Hasn't mentioned that he declined to give Mandy a job when he was leader, yet. Slight slip up on his timeline "For twenty years this country has been run for the rich and powerful", his aide must be furiously screaming 14 in the background.
Why is John Healey not higher? As an outsider to Labour, I'd be expecting him to be a far better candidate than those ahead of him.
Because Labour don't need a caretaker while they're in government.
What is his USP ?
Young dopes prefers old popes.
It's not very convincing, though. A much stronger argument for a party in opposition that needs to sort itself out, but not really for a government with years left before the next election, and a chance to actually do stuff.
Apart from what, what's his USP ? Setting aside finally noticing what everyone has known for years about AJAX, I don't think he's yet achieved anything significant at Defence.
Today needs some unexpected drama to kick it off. Will Keir sack Wes to try and look like he's a hard man? Or will we get another dreary reset address to the nation?
Today needs some unexpected drama to kick it off. Will Keir sack Wes to try and look like he's a hard man? Or will we get another dreary reset address to the nation?
We could do with an unexpected defection.
Angela Rayner to Reform, Katie Lam to the Lib Dems etc.
Today needs some unexpected drama to kick it off. Will Keir sack Wes to try and look like he's a hard man? Or will we get another dreary reset address to the nation?
We could do with an unexpected defection.
Angela Rayner to Reform, Katie Lam to the Lib Dems etc.
Morning all, YouGov unmoved by events Ref 27 (+1) Labour 19 (=) Con 18. (=) Grn 16 (-1) LD 14 (=) 8-9 Feb
Another poll with the Tories doing much worse than 2024, just imagine how bad it would be without Kemi Badenoch winning PMQs last week.
Increasingly secure, comfortable(?), in her position but no more adept. Might be familiar enough by '29 to take enough votes off Reform to stop them breaking through on FPTP.
Morning all, YouGov unmoved by events Ref 27 (+1) Labour 19 (=) Con 18. (=) Grn 16 (-1) LD 14 (=) 8-9 Feb
Another poll with the Tories doing much worse than 2024, just imagine how bad it would be without Kemi Badenoch winning PMQs last week.
Another poll with the Tories behind Labour too despite the week they have had, Kemi must do better than that to survive beyond May
With apologies to BigG. Kemi seems to be in the Biden phase. Completely gaga but with a few flashes of life/intelligence, only kept there while they scratch around for someone more suitable. Left in place pro-tem as they can't quite find someone. (I have her as first leader to go)
Morning all, YouGov unmoved by events Ref 27 (+1) Labour 19 (=) Con 18. (=) Grn 16 (-1) LD 14 (=) 8-9 Feb
One not taken in time to reflect the boom in support for Labour that has come from the surprise of the general public that their all time favourite Labour PM Keir Starmer was not booted out of the door.
WATCH — @balint.house.gov on the unredacted Epstein files: “There’s a bunch of sick fucks… so many people knew…. Trump never kicked Epstein out of Mar-A-Lago. That’s a lie.”
Rayner coming out behind Starmer along with most of the Cabinet and more strongly than Streeting, whose Mandelson emails were in the news yesterday probably boosts her a bit in the next PM stakes. However after Cabinet support and a good PLP meeting yesterday Starmer is likely at least secure until the May local and devolved elections and beyond if Labour beat the Tories for second
It will be interesting to see how loyal the Cabinet remain if Labour get a shellacking in Gorton and Denton and in the May elections. If I wanted to be the new Labour leader I would want to take over after May, not before.
Morning all, YouGov unmoved by events Ref 27 (+1) Labour 19 (=) Con 18. (=) Grn 16 (-1) LD 14 (=) 8-9 Feb
It's hard to believe this saga hasn't moved anyone's opinion? I suppose Labour and Con could be as low as they could possibly go, but... something doesn't feel right with these "no change" polls?
Morning all, YouGov unmoved by events Ref 27 (+1) Labour 19 (=) Con 18. (=) Grn 16 (-1) LD 14 (=) 8-9 Feb
Another poll with the Tories doing much worse than 2024, just imagine how bad it would be without Kemi Badenoch winning PMQs last week.
Increasingly secure, comfortable(?), in her position but no more adept. Might be familiar enough by '29 to take enough votes off Reform to stop them breaking through on FPTP.
150 to 175 seat strategy needs to be the Tories focus. They aren't forming a government in 2029, they need to ensure they are a strong(er) opposition to whatever weak minority or coalition emerges
Morning all, YouGov unmoved by events Ref 27 (+1) Labour 19 (=) Con 18. (=) Grn 16 (-1) LD 14 (=) 8-9 Feb
It's hard to believe this saga hasn't moved anyone's opinion? I suppose Labour and Con could be as low as they could possibly go, but... something doesn't feel right with these "no change" polls?
I think the public think politicians being sleazy is dog bites man territory.
I saw some analysis the other day and the stories about Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor get a lot more views/clicks than the stories about Mandy.
Remember how phone hacking would see Dave resign and cost the Tories the 2015 election?
Pollsters said it was hardly ever mentioned in the focus groups/polls, the only people who brought it up were people who were never ever voting Tory.
Ring paid somewhere between $8 and $10 million for a 30-second Super Bowl spot to tell 120 million viewers that their cameras now scan neighborhoods using AI.
The math is wild. Ring has roughly 20 million devices in American homes. Search Party is enabled by default. The opt-out rate on default settings in consumer tech is historically around 5%. So approximately 19 million cameras are now running AI pattern matching on anything that moves past your front door. Today the target is dogs. The same infrastructure already handles “Familiar Faces,” which builds biometric profiles of every person your camera sees, whether they know about it or not.
Ring settled with the FTC for $5.8 million after employees had unrestricted access to customers’ bedroom and bathroom footage for years. They’re now partnered with Flock Safety, which routes footage to local law enforcement. ICE has accessed Flock data through local police departments acting as intermediaries. Senator Markey’s investigation found Ring’s privacy protections only apply to device owners. If you’re a neighbor, a delivery driver, a passerby, you have no rights and no recourse.
This tells you everything about Amazon’s actual product. The customer paid for the camera. The customer pays the electricity. The customer pays the $3.99/month subscription. And Amazon gets a surveillance grid that would cost tens of billions to build from scratch, with an AI layer activated by default, and a law enforcement pipeline already connected.
They wrapped all of that in a lost puppy commercial because that’s the only version of this story anyone would willingly opt into.
WATCH — @balint.house.gov on the unredacted Epstein files: “There’s a bunch of sick fucks… so many people knew…. Trump never kicked Epstein out of Mar-A-Lago. That’s a lie.”
Morning all, YouGov unmoved by events Ref 27 (+1) Labour 19 (=) Con 18. (=) Grn 16 (-1) LD 14 (=) 8-9 Feb
It's hard to believe this saga hasn't moved anyone's opinion? I suppose Labour and Con could be as low as they could possibly go, but... something doesn't feel right with these "no change" polls?
Perhaps the febrile coverage by the media has turned
Today needs some unexpected drama to kick it off. Will Keir sack Wes to try and look like he's a hard man? Or will we get another dreary reset address to the nation?
We could do with an unexpected defection.
Angela Rayner to Reform, Katie Lam to the Lib Dems etc.
Why is John Healey not higher? As an outsider to Labour, I'd be expecting him to be a far better candidate than those ahead of him.
Because Labour don't need a caretaker while they're in government.
What is his USP ?
His USP is Adult In The Room.
Not much point when all the back benchers and half the cabinet act like spolit children denied another sweet every time the leadership tries to do anything remotely adult.
Morning all, YouGov unmoved by events Ref 27 (+1) Labour 19 (=) Con 18. (=) Grn 16 (-1) LD 14 (=) 8-9 Feb
It's hard to believe this saga hasn't moved anyone's opinion? I suppose Labour and Con could be as low as they could possibly go, but... something doesn't feel right with these "no change" polls?
We need a few weeks of polling post any 'event' to see if anything really changes. The only 'sudden' poll shifts mid term i can recall are Truss mini budget and last May (which was really Reform being suddenly seen as able to win and thus somewhere for the non voter/had enough to hang their hat before perhaps not voting in 2029)
Rayner coming out behind Starmer along with most of the Cabinet and more strongly than Streeting, whose Mandelson emails were in the news yesterday probably boosts her a bit in the next PM stakes. However after Cabinet support and a good PLP meeting yesterday Starmer is likely at least secure until the May local and devolved elections and beyond if Labour beat the Tories for second
It will be interesting to see how loyal the Cabinet remain if Labour get a shellacking in Gorton and Denton and in the May elections. If I wanted to be the new Labour leader I would want to take over after May, not before.
That’s just cowardice and a lack of self belief. Any leader should believe that they can win Gorton and can do well in the May elections through strength of their leadership and platform. If they can’t do that then they have no hope in the General Election other than to scrape through on quirks of the voting system.
Morning all, YouGov unmoved by events Ref 27 (+1) Labour 19 (=) Con 18. (=) Grn 16 (-1) LD 14 (=) 8-9 Feb
It's hard to believe this saga hasn't moved anyone's opinion? I suppose Labour and Con could be as low as they could possibly go, but... something doesn't feel right with these "no change" polls?
Not much overlap between "people following this story closely" and "people who haven't made their mind up about the key figures already". Very few one-off events shift the polls outside MOE.
Morning all, YouGov unmoved by events Ref 27 (+1) Labour 19 (=) Con 18. (=) Grn 16 (-1) LD 14 (=) 8-9 Feb
It's hard to believe this saga hasn't moved anyone's opinion? I suppose Labour and Con could be as low as they could possibly go, but... something doesn't feel right with these "no change" polls?
Rayner coming out behind Starmer along with most of the Cabinet and more strongly than Streeting, whose Mandelson emails were in the news yesterday probably boosts her a bit in the next PM stakes. However after Cabinet support and a good PLP meeting yesterday Starmer is likely at least secure until the May local and devolved elections and beyond if Labour beat the Tories for second
It will be interesting to see how loyal the Cabinet remain if Labour get a shellacking in Gorton and Denton and in the May elections. If I wanted to be the new Labour leader I would want to take over after May, not before.
That’s just cowardice and a lack of self belief. Any leader should believe that they can win Gorton and can do well in the May elections through strength of their leadership and platform. If they can’t do that then they have no hope in the General Election other than to scrape through on quirks of the voting system.
It’s amazing how little self belief there has been in the Labour government since winning a huge majority less than two years ago.
Why is John Healey not higher? As an outsider to Labour, I'd be expecting him to be a far better candidate than those ahead of him.
Healey is the sensible choice for the country.
Which means that Labour MPs and Labour members will have no interest in nominating him.
Keeping Starmer in place is preferable to replacing him with Miliband or Rayner.
In what respect is Healey greatly different from Starmer ? I've nothing against the guy, but I'm unaware of any notable achievements.
And it's time for a reminder that the Defence Review was published at the beginning of June last year. The Defence Investment Plan, intended to set out spending priorities for the next decade, was due last autumn. Still crickets.
Rayner coming out behind Starmer along with most of the Cabinet and more strongly than Streeting, whose Mandelson emails were in the news yesterday probably boosts her a bit in the next PM stakes. However after Cabinet support and a good PLP meeting yesterday Starmer is likely at least secure until the May local and devolved elections and beyond if Labour beat the Tories for second
It will be interesting to see how loyal the Cabinet remain if Labour get a shellacking in Gorton and Denton and in the May elections. If I wanted to be the new Labour leader I would want to take over after May, not before.
That’s just cowardice and a lack of self belief. Any leader should believe that they can win Gorton and can do well in the May elections through strength of their leadership and platform. If they can’t do that then they have no hope in the General Election other than to scrape through on quirks of the voting system.
It’s amazing how little self belief there has been in the Labour government since winning a huge majority less than two years ago.
It's probably has something to do with the little voice in the back of their minds repeating '33.7%' over and over again.
Why is John Healey not higher? As an outsider to Labour, I'd be expecting him to be a far better candidate than those ahead of him.
Healey is the sensible choice for the country.
Which means that Labour MPs and Labour members will have no interest in nominating him.
Keeping Starmer in place is preferable to replacing him with Miliband or Rayner.
In what respect is Healey greatly different from Starmer ? I've nothing against the guy, but I'm unaware of any notable achievements.
And it's time for a reminder that the Defence Review was published at the beginning of June last year. The Defence Investment Plan, intended to set out spending priorities for the next decade, was due last autumn. Still crickets.
Wasn’t the DIP problem that it was still stuck in the Treasury?
My wider point is, to those saying Starmer should resign, be careful what you wish for! There’s plenty of options that are definitely worse for the country than keeping the incumbent in place.
Why is John Healey not higher? As an outsider to Labour, I'd be expecting him to be a far better candidate than those ahead of him.
Healey is the sensible choice for the country.
Which means that Labour MPs and Labour members will have no interest in nominating him.
Keeping Starmer in place is preferable to replacing him with Miliband or Rayner.
In what respect is Healey greatly different from Starmer ? I've nothing against the guy, but I'm unaware of any notable achievements.
And it's time for a reminder that the Defence Review was published at the beginning of June last year. The Defence Investment Plan, intended to set out spending priorities for the next decade, was due last autumn. Still crickets.
John Healey is a working class Yorkshireman whose academic brilliance saw him accepted into the University of Cambridge, that means he’s much better than Starmer.
Why is John Healey not higher? As an outsider to Labour, I'd be expecting him to be a far better candidate than those ahead of him.
Healey is the sensible choice for the country.
Which means that Labour MPs and Labour members will have no interest in nominating him.
Keeping Starmer in place is preferable to replacing him with Miliband or Rayner.
In what respect is Healey greatly different from Starmer ? I've nothing against the guy, but I'm unaware of any notable achievements.
And it's time for a reminder that the Defence Review was published at the beginning of June last year. The Defence Investment Plan, intended to set out spending priorities for the next decade, was due last autumn. Still crickets.
John Healey is a working class Yorkshireman whose academic brilliance saw him accepted into the University of Cambridge, that means he’s much better than Starmer.
It's not much, but better than some of the contenders.
Rayner coming out behind Starmer along with most of the Cabinet and more strongly than Streeting, whose Mandelson emails were in the news yesterday probably boosts her a bit in the next PM stakes. However after Cabinet support and a good PLP meeting yesterday Starmer is likely at least secure until the May local and devolved elections and beyond if Labour beat the Tories for second
It will be interesting to see how loyal the Cabinet remain if Labour get a shellacking in Gorton and Denton and in the May elections. If I wanted to be the new Labour leader I would want to take over after May, not before.
Loyal cabinet! Yesterday morning not one of them would say a public word. Later in the day they all said the same thing simultaneously. Also yesterday the Scottish Labour leader led the charge, clearly believing he had others agreeing to follow, and they didn't.
Translation: Yesterday morning they were privately deciding if yesterday was the day to finish him. During the day they agreed it was not. Some of them probably reneged on a deal with Sarwar in the process.
This is politics. It suited a bunch of scorpions yesterday to act in concert. None of them could see a clear path to their ambitions. But the nature of the scorpions does not change.
It gives Starmer an interesting chance to see if the cards fall his way. If they do it would begin with an unlikely victory in G and D. But anyway between now and 26 February is aeons.
Rayner coming out behind Starmer along with most of the Cabinet and more strongly than Streeting, whose Mandelson emails were in the news yesterday probably boosts her a bit in the next PM stakes. However after Cabinet support and a good PLP meeting yesterday Starmer is likely at least secure until the May local and devolved elections and beyond if Labour beat the Tories for second
It will be interesting to see how loyal the Cabinet remain if Labour get a shellacking in Gorton and Denton and in the May elections. If I wanted to be the new Labour leader I would want to take over after May, not before.
That’s just cowardice and a lack of self belief. Any leader should believe that they can win Gorton and can do well in the May elections through strength of their leadership and platform. If they can’t do that then they have no hope in the General Election other than to scrape through on quirks of the voting system.
It’s amazing how little self belief there has been in the Labour government since winning a huge majority less than two years ago.
Tiernan and Finkelstein discussing the future direction of Labour and its core support.
TSE will be amused to learn that he's included in those demographics. Though probably the most honest discussion of who votes Labour according to pollsters statistics and not what Ed M said earlier.
Rayner coming out behind Starmer along with most of the Cabinet and more strongly than Streeting, whose Mandelson emails were in the news yesterday probably boosts her a bit in the next PM stakes. However after Cabinet support and a good PLP meeting yesterday Starmer is likely at least secure until the May local and devolved elections and beyond if Labour beat the Tories for second
It will be interesting to see how loyal the Cabinet remain if Labour get a shellacking in Gorton and Denton and in the May elections. If I wanted to be the new Labour leader I would want to take over after May, not before.
That’s just cowardice and a lack of self belief. Any leader should believe that they can win Gorton and can do well in the May elections through strength of their leadership and platform. If they can’t do that then they have no hope in the General Election other than to scrape through on quirks of the voting system.
It’s amazing how little self belief there has been in the Labour government since winning a huge majority less than two years ago.
Tiernan and Finkelstein discussing the future direction of Labour and its core support.
TSE will be amused to learn that he's included in those demographics. Though probably the most honest discussion of who votes Labour according to pollsters statistics and not what Ed M said earlier.
The big problem is hardly anyone is saying they will vote for Labour.
Although that said, at the moment the national vote is more fragmented than the Richard III Society on discussing which ridiculously outlandish candidate might have been the 'true' killer of Edward V.
Ring paid somewhere between $8 and $10 million for a 30-second Super Bowl spot to tell 120 million viewers that their cameras now scan neighborhoods using AI.
The math is wild. Ring has roughly 20 million devices in American homes. Search Party is enabled by default. The opt-out rate on default settings in consumer tech is historically around 5%. So approximately 19 million cameras are now running AI pattern matching on anything that moves past your front door. Today the target is dogs. The same infrastructure already handles “Familiar Faces,” which builds biometric profiles of every person your camera sees, whether they know about it or not.
Ring settled with the FTC for $5.8 million after employees had unrestricted access to customers’ bedroom and bathroom footage for years. They’re now partnered with Flock Safety, which routes footage to local law enforcement. ICE has accessed Flock data through local police departments acting as intermediaries. Senator Markey’s investigation found Ring’s privacy protections only apply to device owners. If you’re a neighbor, a delivery driver, a passerby, you have no rights and no recourse.
This tells you everything about Amazon’s actual product. The customer paid for the camera. The customer pays the electricity. The customer pays the $3.99/month subscription. And Amazon gets a surveillance grid that would cost tens of billions to build from scratch, with an AI layer activated by default, and a law enforcement pipeline already connected.
They wrapped all of that in a lost puppy commercial because that’s the only version of this story anyone would willingly opt into.
Reminds me of 'Alexa'. In 1984, the Party had to force people to have surveillance devices in their homes. Now, huge numbers voluntarily subject themselves to it, and deem it a good thing.
Rayner coming out behind Starmer along with most of the Cabinet and more strongly than Streeting, whose Mandelson emails were in the news yesterday probably boosts her a bit in the next PM stakes. However after Cabinet support and a good PLP meeting yesterday Starmer is likely at least secure until the May local and devolved elections and beyond if Labour beat the Tories for second
It will be interesting to see how loyal the Cabinet remain if Labour get a shellacking in Gorton and Denton and in the May elections. If I wanted to be the new Labour leader I would want to take over after May, not before.
Loyal cabinet! Yesterday morning not one of them would say a public word. Later in the day they all said the same thing simultaneously. Also yesterday the Scottish Labour leader led the charge, clearly believing he had others agreeing to follow, and they didn't.
Translation: Yesterday morning they were privately deciding if yesterday was the day to finish him. During the day they agreed it was not. Some of them probably reneged on a deal with Sarwar in the process.
This is politics. It suited a bunch of scorpions yesterday to act in concert. None of them could see a clear path to their ambitions. But the nature of the scorpions does not change.
It gives Starmer an interesting chance to see if the cards fall his way. If they do it would begin with an unlikely victory in G and D. But anyway between now and 26 February is aeons.
We're behind you all the way means you can't keep an eye on them.
Rayner coming out behind Starmer along with most of the Cabinet and more strongly than Streeting, whose Mandelson emails were in the news yesterday probably boosts her a bit in the next PM stakes. However after Cabinet support and a good PLP meeting yesterday Starmer is likely at least secure until the May local and devolved elections and beyond if Labour beat the Tories for second
It will be interesting to see how loyal the Cabinet remain if Labour get a shellacking in Gorton and Denton and in the May elections. If I wanted to be the new Labour leader I would want to take over after May, not before.
Loyal cabinet! Yesterday morning not one of them would say a public word. Later in the day they all said the same thing simultaneously. Also yesterday the Scottish Labour leader led the charge, clearly believing he had others agreeing to follow, and they didn't.
Translation: Yesterday morning they were privately deciding if yesterday was the day to finish him. During the day they agreed it was not. Some of them probably reneged on a deal with Sarwar in the process.
This is politics. It suited a bunch of scorpions yesterday to act in concert. None of them could see a clear path to their ambitions. But the nature of the scorpions does not change.
It gives Starmer an interesting chance to see if the cards fall his way. If they do it would begin with an unlikely victory in G and D. But anyway between now and 26 February is aeons.
We're behind you all the way means you can't keep an eye on them.
It also means they are in an excellent position to stab you in the back.
Why is John Healey not higher? As an outsider to Labour, I'd be expecting him to be a far better candidate than those ahead of him.
Healey is the sensible choice for the country.
Which means that Labour MPs and Labour members will have no interest in nominating him.
Keeping Starmer in place is preferable to replacing him with Miliband or Rayner.
In what respect is Healey greatly different from Starmer ? I've nothing against the guy, but I'm unaware of any notable achievements.
And it's time for a reminder that the Defence Review was published at the beginning of June last year. The Defence Investment Plan, intended to set out spending priorities for the next decade, was due last autumn. Still crickets.
He's just Baldy Ben with a less catastrophic cholesterol level, presiding over the same torpor and dysfunction at the MoD.
Why he's anybody's idea of a PM is beyond me. Labour's challenge is to selll occasionally unpalatable reform to the MPs and then sell it again to the electorate as what they need and want. That takes a big personality and some degree of personal charm. Healey has the personality and charm of a Minecraft Creeper so we can cross him off.
I do not recile from my support for Kemi despite @TSE and @HYUFD views and expect her to fight the next GE
Interestingly Miliband ruled himself out of any future leadership bid and it did seem genuine
Streeting is obviously in trouble with his disclosures yesterday on his relationship with Mandelson and I just do not see Rayner winning
If labour have any sense they need to find a unity candidate to take on Starmer
Sarwar must have been misled or his fellow rebels got cold feet as seen by Wales first minister. The meeting of the SLP this morning couod be quite fractious
I expect Greens to win Gorton and Denton comfortably which if it sends a message to Reform and Labour is good
If it's Ms Rayner, it will be an historic move for Labour and every good wish to the lady.
Good morning, everybody.
It will also be a complete disaster.
However, it should be noted it's difficult to think of any plausible candidate from any party of whom that wouldn't be true.
And, as long as that remains the case, the rationale for Starmer remains what it always has been. To hang around for long enough that something can grow in the ashes of the recent bushfire. See also Badenoch.
Essentially, it's the same logic that Dorothy Parker used in Résumé.
Morning all, YouGov unmoved by events Ref 27 (+1) Labour 19 (=) Con 18. (=) Grn 16 (-1) LD 14 (=) 8-9 Feb
Another poll with the Tories doing much worse than 2024, just imagine how bad it would be without Kemi Badenoch winning PMQs last week.
First post to make me smile all week....
Labour and the country looked at alternatives and they didn't like what they saw. This is his chance for a reset. A few simple things.
He is the mosrt powerful person in the country. Be his own man and do his own thing. He's a human rights lawyer. He can see injustice like the rest of us. Trump's loathed. Take your head out of his backside. Bombing Iraq isn't legal. Get off the fence and say so. No more invitations to wanted war criminals. Stop aping Farage. Apologise for your 'country of foreigners' speech. Invite back into the Party those you expelled without good reason. Get a better script writer.
Rayner coming out behind Starmer along with most of the Cabinet and more strongly than Streeting, whose Mandelson emails were in the news yesterday probably boosts her a bit in the next PM stakes. However after Cabinet support and a good PLP meeting yesterday Starmer is likely at least secure until the May local and devolved elections and beyond if Labour beat the Tories for second
It will be interesting to see how loyal the Cabinet remain if Labour get a shellacking in Gorton and Denton and in the May elections. If I wanted to be the new Labour leader I would want to take over after May, not before.
If it's Ms Rayner, it will be an historic move for Labour and every good wish to the lady.
Good morning, everybody.
Indeed, in 2010 Labour were bullying redheads and now could soon elect one.
I think a reasonable betting stance is that even Labour MPs/members are likely over time to see that Rayner is a great asset to the party and the gaiety of nations but impossible PM material. But what remains is that the next Labour leader must be a woman. The best available across the party spectrum is Cooper.
Why is John Healey not higher? As an outsider to Labour, I'd be expecting him to be a far better candidate than those ahead of him.
Healey is the sensible choice for the country.
Which means that Labour MPs and Labour members will have no interest in nominating him.
Keeping Starmer in place is preferable to replacing him with Miliband or Rayner.
In what respect is Healey greatly different from Starmer ? I've nothing against the guy, but I'm unaware of any notable achievements.
And it's time for a reminder that the Defence Review was published at the beginning of June last year. The Defence Investment Plan, intended to set out spending priorities for the next decade, was due last autumn. Still crickets.
He's just Baldy Ben with a less catastrophic cholesterol level, presiding over the same torpor and dysfunction at the MoD.
Why he's anybody's idea of a PM is beyond me. Labour's challenge is to sell occasionally unpalatable reform to the MPs and then sell it again to the electorate as what they need and want. That takes a big personality and some degree of personal charm. Healey has the personality and charm of a Minecraft Creeper so we can cross him off.
Raynor is a case of turkeys voting for Xmas. Her basic instincts are thoroughly Corbynite and that would we exposed by being PM and in the full glare of media attention. Just like SKS is just so obviously a north London lawyer. But progressives are so self-congratulatory and inward looking these days they don't see it.
I wonder whether this is Milliband's chance - he protesteth too much imho
Rayner coming out behind Starmer along with most of the Cabinet and more strongly than Streeting, whose Mandelson emails were in the news yesterday probably boosts her a bit in the next PM stakes. However after Cabinet support and a good PLP meeting yesterday Starmer is likely at least secure until the May local and devolved elections and beyond if Labour beat the Tories for second
It will be interesting to see how loyal the Cabinet remain if Labour get a shellacking in Gorton and Denton and in the May elections. If I wanted to be the new Labour leader I would want to take over after May, not before.
That’s just cowardice and a lack of self belief. Any leader should believe that they can win Gorton and can do well in the May elections through strength of their leadership and platform. If they can’t do that then they have no hope in the General Election other than to scrape through on quirks of the voting system.
It’s amazing how little self belief there has been in the Labour government since winning a huge majority less than two years ago.
Tiernan and Finkelstein discussing the future direction of Labour and its core support.
TSE will be amused to learn that he's included in those demographics. Though probably the most honest discussion of who votes Labour according to pollsters statistics and not what Ed M said earlier.
The big problem is hardly anyone is saying they will vote for Labour.
Although that said, at the moment the national vote is more fragmented than the Richard III Society on discussing which ridiculously outlandish candidate might have been the 'true' killer of Edward V.
The big issue is how close to actual voting, VI is. Compared to GE 24 Labour have lost 14% of voters, 10% to Green, ~2% to LD and 2% to Reform. So that is fairly clear as to who they need to appeal to recover to '24. However, should the polls really be compared to the polls in the run up to GE24 rather than actual vote %s? Probably, in which case they've lost 20+% and that difference is to Reform. Then the question is why the disparity, is it voters changing their mind or differences in turnout?
Morning all, YouGov unmoved by events Ref 27 (+1) Labour 19 (=) Con 18. (=) Grn 16 (-1) LD 14 (=) 8-9 Feb
It's hard to believe this saga hasn't moved anyone's opinion? I suppose Labour and Con could be as low as they could possibly go, but... something doesn't feel right with these "no change" polls?
Worth remembering that it often takes a while for opinion polls to react to events.
Also, if the true support for a party has declined from 20% to 18%, you could easily get two opinion poll scores of 19% in succession for that party on the basis of changing sample errors.
It is a bit curious though, as we were told that this issue had an extraordinary degree of cut through to the public.
Pic of Larry outside No.10 Caption: “Starmer's only remaining employee will combine the roles of Chief of Staff and Communications Director with a massive afternoon nap”
Morning all, YouGov unmoved by events Ref 27 (+1) Labour 19 (=) Con 18. (=) Grn 16 (-1) LD 14 (=) 8-9 Feb
It's hard to believe this saga hasn't moved anyone's opinion? I suppose Labour and Con could be as low as they could possibly go, but... something doesn't feel right with these "no change" polls?
I think the public think politicians being sleazy is dog bites man territory.
I saw some analysis the other day and the stories about Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor get a lot more views/clicks than the stories about Mandy.
Remember how phone hacking would see Dave resign and cost the Tories the 2015 election?
Pollsters said it was hardly ever mentioned in the focus groups/polls, the only people who brought it up were people who were never ever voting Tory.
A fortnight ago, Labour were seemingly enjoying a modest improvement. That has been knocked right back.
I was just looking over some stuff for the May locals etc and thinking sbout how perception of the results impacts. Last year the Tories were defending pretty much all the county councils that were up and most councillors do the results looked like primarily Tory defeat - most councillors, councils etc lost. Accordingly the Tory VI in polling took a 4 or 5 poInt instant hit. Labour, whilst utterly drubbed, were only defending 280 or so wards. The analysis of what it would mean at a GE was apocalyptic for Labour and very bad for the Tories (but rather better than many of the subsequent MRPs suggested)
This time its rather different. Ignoring Scot/Wales (they will speak for themselves). county wise we just have 2 Tory ones up - Essex and Hampshire. I expect them to lose both but to be doing better thsn last year they would be looking to stop Reform taking overall conttol in Essex and remaining largest party in a NOC Hampshire. Then we have London and the district/unitaries. Labour are defending 33 outside London and 21 in London and 2100 or so wards, the Tories defend 7 outside London (incl the counties), 5 in London and 900 or so wards.
So, the story this time away from Ref, Green surging will be of Labour carnage and loss of councils (barring a miracle), theyll lose many more councils, councillors etc thsn the Tories (who will lose a lot - 300 councillors and half the councils?) Im not sure Labour can keep losses under 1000.
So.... will it hit Labour's polling like 2025 did the Tories??
Why is John Healey not higher? As an outsider to Labour, I'd be expecting him to be a far better candidate than those ahead of him.
Because Labour don't need a caretaker while they're in government.
What is his USP ?
His USP is Adult In The Room.
Not much point when all the back benchers and half the cabinet act like spolit children denied another sweet every time the leadership tries to do anything remotely adult.
Adult In The Room - wasn’t Sir Britas supposed to be that?
Morning all, YouGov unmoved by events Ref 27 (+1) Labour 19 (=) Con 18. (=) Grn 16 (-1) LD 14 (=) 8-9 Feb
It's hard to believe this saga hasn't moved anyone's opinion? I suppose Labour and Con could be as low as they could possibly go, but... something doesn't feel right with these "no change" polls?
I think the public think politicians being sleazy is dog bites man territory.
I saw some analysis the other day and the stories about Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor get a lot more views/clicks than the stories about Mandy.
Remember how phone hacking would see Dave resign and cost the Tories the 2015 election?
Pollsters said it was hardly ever mentioned in the focus groups/polls, the only people who brought it up were people who were never ever voting Tory.
A fortnight ago, Labour were seemingly enjoying a modest improvement. That has been knocked right back.
Id also say the modest Tory improvement seen in December has been pulled back/stalled by the defections
Morning all, YouGov unmoved by events Ref 27 (+1) Labour 19 (=) Con 18. (=) Grn 16 (-1) LD 14 (=) 8-9 Feb
Another poll with the Tories doing much worse than 2024, just imagine how bad it would be without Kemi Badenoch winning PMQs last week.
Another poll with the Tories behind Labour too despite the week they have had, Kemi must do better than that to survive beyond May
With apologies to BigG. Kemi seems to be in the Biden phase. Completely gaga but with a few flashes of life/intelligence, only kept there while they scratch around for someone more suitable. Left in place pro-tem as they can't quite find someone. (I have her as first leader to go)
Good god, you mean the Tories are going to find themselves a Harris? Someone who still manages to lose when Labour ditch Starmer and find themselves someone completely bonkers?
Rayner coming out behind Starmer along with most of the Cabinet and more strongly than Streeting, whose Mandelson emails were in the news yesterday probably boosts her a bit in the next PM stakes. However after Cabinet support and a good PLP meeting yesterday Starmer is likely at least secure until the May local and devolved elections and beyond if Labour beat the Tories for second
It will be interesting to see how loyal the Cabinet remain if Labour get a shellacking in Gorton and Denton and in the May elections. If I wanted to be the new Labour leader I would want to take over after May, not before.
That’s just cowardice and a lack of self belief. Any leader should believe that they can win Gorton and can do well in the May elections through strength of their leadership and platform. If they can’t do that then they have no hope in the General Election other than to scrape through on quirks of the voting system.
It’s amazing how little self belief there has been in the Labour government since winning a huge majority less than two years ago.
Tiernan and Finkelstein discussing the future direction of Labour and its core support.
TSE will be amused to learn that he's included in those demographics. Though probably the most honest discussion of who votes Labour according to pollsters statistics and not what Ed M said earlier.
The big problem is hardly anyone is saying they will vote for Labour.
Although that said, at the moment the national vote is more fragmented than the Richard III Society on discussing which ridiculously outlandish candidate might have been the 'true' killer of Edward V.
I take it, you don’t believe that it was Lady Margaret Beaufort? Nor, that Elizabeth Woodville and her mother had magical powers?
I was just looking over some stuff for the May locals etc and thinking sbout how perception of the results impacts. Last year the Tories were defending pretty much all the county councils that were up and most councillors do the results looked like primarily Tory defeat - most councillors, councils etc lost. Accordingly the Tory VI in polling took a 4 or 5 poInt instant hit. Labour, whilst utterly drubbed, were only defending 280 or so wards. The analysis of what it would mean at a GE was apocalyptic for Labour and very bad for the Tories (but rather better than many of the subsequent MRPs suggested)
This time its rather different. Ignoring Scot/Wales (they will speak for themselves). county wise we just have 2 Tory ones up - Essex and Hampshire. I expect them to lose both but to be doing better thsn last year they would be looking to stop Reform taking overall conttol in Essex and remaining largest party in a NOC Hampshire. Then we have London and the district/unitaries. Labour are defending 33 outside London and 21 in London and 2100 or so wards, the Tories defend 7 outside London (incl the counties), 5 in London and 900 or so wards.
So, the story this time away from Ref, Green surging will be of Labour carnage and loss of councils (barring a miracle), theyll lose many more councils, councillors etc thsn the Tories (who will lose a lot - 300 councillors and half the councils?) Im not sure Labour can keep losses under 1000.
So.... will it hit Labour's polling like 2025 did the Tories??
Yes, I expect Scotland Wales to dominate the headlines, it’s why I’ve backed the Greens to lead in a YouGov poll this year.
Rayner coming out behind Starmer along with most of the Cabinet and more strongly than Streeting, whose Mandelson emails were in the news yesterday probably boosts her a bit in the next PM stakes. However after Cabinet support and a good PLP meeting yesterday Starmer is likely at least secure until the May local and devolved elections and beyond if Labour beat the Tories for second
It will be interesting to see how loyal the Cabinet remain if Labour get a shellacking in Gorton and Denton and in the May elections. If I wanted to be the new Labour leader I would want to take over after May, not before.
Isn't it baked in that they'll get a shellacking?
Yes and no. Everyone thinks they will come third, but that still has a large range of possible outcomes. They could come 3rd on 25% of the vote, and I think they'd actually feel quite good about that (despite, objectively, it being disastrous). They could come 3rd on 10%, and that might well focus the minds of the various Labour MPs who are going to be out of a job with that level of support at the next GE (I.e. virtually all of them).
Obviously, if by some miracle they come second, they'll be carrying Starmer round shoulder high as some all conquering hero.
Such of course is the power of good expectation management. The fact that objectively, losing a seat that safe by any margin at all should be a announcement, loud and clear, that the game is up, the fact that only a couple of weeks ago they were blocking Andy Burnham from standing, for fear he would win, the fact that it's a three way contest so the winner probably only needs to get about 30% of the vote to win. Already all forgotten.
The greens of course have the opposite problem - the punditry expect them to win, so if Reform or Labour pip them to the post, it's going to be a narrative of disappointment and setback.
Rayner coming out behind Starmer along with most of the Cabinet and more strongly than Streeting, whose Mandelson emails were in the news yesterday probably boosts her a bit in the next PM stakes. However after Cabinet support and a good PLP meeting yesterday Starmer is likely at least secure until the May local and devolved elections and beyond if Labour beat the Tories for second
It will be interesting to see how loyal the Cabinet remain if Labour get a shellacking in Gorton and Denton and in the May elections. If I wanted to be the new Labour leader I would want to take over after May, not before.
Loyal cabinet! Yesterday morning not one of them would say a public word. Later in the day they all said the same thing simultaneously. Also yesterday the Scottish Labour leader led the charge, clearly believing he had others agreeing to follow, and they didn't.
Translation: Yesterday morning they were privately deciding if yesterday was the day to finish him. During the day they agreed it was not. Some of them probably reneged on a deal with Sarwar in the process.
This is politics. It suited a bunch of scorpions yesterday to act in concert. None of them could see a clear path to their ambitions. But the nature of the scorpions does not change.
It gives Starmer an interesting chance to see if the cards fall his way. If they do it would begin with an unlikely victory in G and D. But anyway between now and 26 February is aeons.
We're behind you all the way means you can't keep an eye on them.
This is why Starmer keeps doing all those u-turns, before someone manages to plunge the knife?
Rayner coming out behind Starmer along with most of the Cabinet and more strongly than Streeting, whose Mandelson emails were in the news yesterday probably boosts her a bit in the next PM stakes. However after Cabinet support and a good PLP meeting yesterday Starmer is likely at least secure until the May local and devolved elections and beyond if Labour beat the Tories for second
It will be interesting to see how loyal the Cabinet remain if Labour get a shellacking in Gorton and Denton and in the May elections. If I wanted to be the new Labour leader I would want to take over after May, not before.
That’s just cowardice and a lack of self belief. Any leader should believe that they can win Gorton and can do well in the May elections through strength of their leadership and platform. If they can’t do that then they have no hope in the General Election other than to scrape through on quirks of the voting system.
It’s amazing how little self belief there has been in the Labour government since winning a huge majority less than two years ago.
Tiernan and Finkelstein discussing the future direction of Labour and its core support.
TSE will be amused to learn that he's included in those demographics. Though probably the most honest discussion of who votes Labour according to pollsters statistics and not what Ed M said earlier.
The big problem is hardly anyone is saying they will vote for Labour.
Although that said, at the moment the national vote is more fragmented than the Richard III Society on discussing which ridiculously outlandish candidate might have been the 'true' killer of Edward V.
I take it, you don’t believe that it was Lady Margaret Beaufort? Nor, that Elizabeth Woodville and her mother had magical powers?
I was just looking over some stuff for the May locals etc and thinking sbout how perception of the results impacts. Last year the Tories were defending pretty much all the county councils that were up and most councillors do the results looked like primarily Tory defeat - most councillors, councils etc lost. Accordingly the Tory VI in polling took a 4 or 5 poInt instant hit. Labour, whilst utterly drubbed, were only defending 280 or so wards. The analysis of what it would mean at a GE was apocalyptic for Labour and very bad for the Tories (but rather better than many of the subsequent MRPs suggested)
This time its rather different. Ignoring Scot/Wales (they will speak for themselves). county wise we just have 2 Tory ones up - Essex and Hampshire. I expect them to lose both but to be doing better thsn last year they would be looking to stop Reform taking overall conttol in Essex and remaining largest party in a NOC Hampshire. Then we have London and the district/unitaries. Labour are defending 33 outside London and 21 in London and 2100 or so wards, the Tories defend 7 outside London (incl the counties), 5 in London and 900 or so wards.
So, the story this time away from Ref, Green surging will be of Labour carnage and loss of councils (barring a miracle), theyll lose many more councils, councillors etc thsn the Tories (who will lose a lot - 300 councillors and half the councils?) Im not sure Labour can keep losses under 1000.
So.... will it hit Labour's polling like 2025 did the Tories??
Labour’s headlines will be awful, losing places like Barnsley, Wakefield, Sunderland to Reform, and likely various Inner London boroughs to rivals on the left.
But, it may be that their support can go no lower.
Ring paid somewhere between $8 and $10 million for a 30-second Super Bowl spot to tell 120 million viewers that their cameras now scan neighborhoods using AI.
The math is wild. Ring has roughly 20 million devices in American homes. Search Party is enabled by default. The opt-out rate on default settings in consumer tech is historically around 5%. So approximately 19 million cameras are now running AI pattern matching on anything that moves past your front door. Today the target is dogs. The same infrastructure already handles “Familiar Faces,” which builds biometric profiles of every person your camera sees, whether they know about it or not.
Ring settled with the FTC for $5.8 million after employees had unrestricted access to customers’ bedroom and bathroom footage for years. They’re now partnered with Flock Safety, which routes footage to local law enforcement. ICE has accessed Flock data through local police departments acting as intermediaries. Senator Markey’s investigation found Ring’s privacy protections only apply to device owners. If you’re a neighbor, a delivery driver, a passerby, you have no rights and no recourse.
This tells you everything about Amazon’s actual product. The customer paid for the camera. The customer pays the electricity. The customer pays the $3.99/month subscription. And Amazon gets a surveillance grid that would cost tens of billions to build from scratch, with an AI layer activated by default, and a law enforcement pipeline already connected.
They wrapped all of that in a lost puppy commercial because that’s the only version of this story anyone would willingly opt into.
Reminds me of 'Alexa'. In 1984, the Party had to force people to have surveillance devices in their homes. Now, huge numbers voluntarily subject themselves to it, and deem it a good thing.
John Reese: I never understood why people put all their information on those sites. Used to make our job a lot easier at the CIA.
Harold Finch: Of course. That's why I created them.
John Reese: You're telling me you invented online social networking, Finch?
Harold Finch: The Machine needed more information. People's social graph, their associations. The government had been trying to figure it out for years. Turns out most people were happy to volunteer it. Business wound up being quite profitable, too.
I must say the commentators are eating a lot of crow in the press this morning. I hold no love for SKS, but hahahahahahahahahahahaha.
The BBC need a clearout even more than Starmer's office....This Starmer out stuff has been completely led by the media. Why on earth should Starmer resign because of a bad appointment which was made in difficult circumstances and in good faith?
Some of the reporting has been whacky. If you'd arrived from Mars you'd think Starmer was personally found to have been abusing under aged girls. Mind you this site wasn't much better
Indeed. This is all just political theatre, because Trump's DoJ has nothing better to do, like maybe asking Bannon what he was doing hanging out with Epstein in 2019 and planning a publicity campaign to try to rehabilitate him.
I was just looking over some stuff for the May locals etc and thinking sbout how perception of the results impacts. Last year the Tories were defending pretty much all the county councils that were up and most councillors do the results looked like primarily Tory defeat - most councillors, councils etc lost. Accordingly the Tory VI in polling took a 4 or 5 poInt instant hit. Labour, whilst utterly drubbed, were only defending 280 or so wards. The analysis of what it would mean at a GE was apocalyptic for Labour and very bad for the Tories (but rather better than many of the subsequent MRPs suggested)
This time its rather different. Ignoring Scot/Wales (they will speak for themselves). county wise we just have 2 Tory ones up - Essex and Hampshire. I expect them to lose both but to be doing better thsn last year they would be looking to stop Reform taking overall conttol in Essex and remaining largest party in a NOC Hampshire. Then we have London and the district/unitaries. Labour are defending 33 outside London and 21 in London and 2100 or so wards, the Tories defend 7 outside London (incl the counties), 5 in London and 900 or so wards.
So, the story this time away from Ref, Green surging will be of Labour carnage and loss of councils (barring a miracle), theyll lose many more councils, councillors etc thsn the Tories (who will lose a lot - 300 councillors and half the councils?) Im not sure Labour can keep losses under 1000.
So.... will it hit Labour's polling like 2025 did the Tories??
Yes, I expect Scotland Wales to dominate the headlines, it’s why I’ve backed the Greens to lead in a YouGov poll this year.
If they do a poll of London under 30s youll be quids in
I was just looking over some stuff for the May locals etc and thinking sbout how perception of the results impacts. Last year the Tories were defending pretty much all the county councils that were up and most councillors do the results looked like primarily Tory defeat - most councillors, councils etc lost. Accordingly the Tory VI in polling took a 4 or 5 poInt instant hit. Labour, whilst utterly drubbed, were only defending 280 or so wards. The analysis of what it would mean at a GE was apocalyptic for Labour and very bad for the Tories (but rather better than many of the subsequent MRPs suggested)
This time its rather different. Ignoring Scot/Wales (they will speak for themselves). county wise we just have 2 Tory ones up - Essex and Hampshire. I expect them to lose both but to be doing better thsn last year they would be looking to stop Reform taking overall conttol in Essex and remaining largest party in a NOC Hampshire. Then we have London and the district/unitaries. Labour are defending 33 outside London and 21 in London and 2100 or so wards, the Tories defend 7 outside London (incl the counties), 5 in London and 900 or so wards.
So, the story this time away from Ref, Green surging will be of Labour carnage and loss of councils (barring a miracle), theyll lose many more councils, councillors etc thsn the Tories (who will lose a lot - 300 councillors and half the councils?) Im not sure Labour can keep losses under 1000.
So.... will it hit Labour's polling like 2025 did the Tories??
Morning all, YouGov unmoved by events Ref 27 (+1) Labour 19 (=) Con 18. (=) Grn 16 (-1) LD 14 (=) 8-9 Feb
Another poll with the Tories doing much worse than 2024, just imagine how bad it would be without Kemi Badenoch winning PMQs last week.
Another poll with the Tories behind Labour too despite the week they have had, Kemi must do better than that to survive beyond May
With apologies to BigG. Kemi seems to be in the Biden phase. Completely gaga but with a few flashes of life/intelligence, only kept there while they scratch around for someone more suitable. Left in place pro-tem as they can't quite find someone. (I have her as first leader to go)
Good god, you mean the Tories are going to find themselves a Harris? Someone who still manages to lose when Labour ditch Starmer and find themselves someone completely bonkers?
That was Sunak. Someone who steadied the ship, but inflation meant he was going to lose whatever.
Rayner coming out behind Starmer along with most of the Cabinet and more strongly than Streeting, whose Mandelson emails were in the news yesterday probably boosts her a bit in the next PM stakes. However after Cabinet support and a good PLP meeting yesterday Starmer is likely at least secure until the May local and devolved elections and beyond if Labour beat the Tories for second
It will be interesting to see how loyal the Cabinet remain if Labour get a shellacking in Gorton and Denton and in the May elections. If I wanted to be the new Labour leader I would want to take over after May, not before.
I would be astonished if Labour finish higher than 3rd. I live just outside Gorton & Denton and go through the southern part of it every day. The streets I go down are normally awash with Labour signs in the run up to every election. I can now count them on one hand, whereas the number of Green signs is growing by the day. A strong Green showing in Levenshulme is to be expected as Labour only got 37% there at the last locals, but if Labour are as far behind in Burnage as they seem to be they are utterly finished. I haven't passed through Denton lately, though I hear Reform are pretty much camped out there, shoring up votes in the older, whiter part of the constituency.
Why is John Healey not higher? As an outsider to Labour, I'd be expecting him to be a far better candidate than those ahead of him.
Because Labour don't need a caretaker while they're in government.
What is his USP ?
His USP is Adult In The Room.
Not much point when all the back benchers and half the cabinet act like spolit children denied another sweet every time the leadership tries to do anything remotely adult.
Adult In The Room - wasn’t Sir Britas supposed to be that?
Or did that memo never cross his desk?
"Adult in the room", as Dura suggests, simply means so boring that no one has yet noticed who they are, so vaguely positive aspirations can be superimposed on them.
Put them in the spotlight, though, and they become "our worst ever"...
I can't help but feel - given how Starmer hasn't broken the law like Johnson or tanked the economy like Truss - how much this reflects, in part, the extent the UK right-wing media still holds sway over British opinion. Sure, he's an unremarkable PM, but the worst? Really? https://x.com/iainoverton/status/2020996418500989109
I was just looking over some stuff for the May locals etc and thinking sbout how perception of the results impacts. Last year the Tories were defending pretty much all the county councils that were up and most councillors do the results looked like primarily Tory defeat - most councillors, councils etc lost. Accordingly the Tory VI in polling took a 4 or 5 poInt instant hit. Labour, whilst utterly drubbed, were only defending 280 or so wards. The analysis of what it would mean at a GE was apocalyptic for Labour and very bad for the Tories (but rather better than many of the subsequent MRPs suggested)
This time its rather different. Ignoring Scot/Wales (they will speak for themselves). county wise we just have 2 Tory ones up - Essex and Hampshire. I expect them to lose both but to be doing better thsn last year they would be looking to stop Reform taking overall conttol in Essex and remaining largest party in a NOC Hampshire. Then we have London and the district/unitaries. Labour are defending 33 outside London and 21 in London and 2100 or so wards, the Tories defend 7 outside London (incl the counties), 5 in London and 900 or so wards.
So, the story this time away from Ref, Green surging will be of Labour carnage and loss of councils (barring a miracle), theyll lose many more councils, councillors etc thsn the Tories (who will lose a lot - 300 councillors and half the councils?) Im not sure Labour can keep losses under 1000.
So.... will it hit Labour's polling like 2025 did the Tories??
It may also matter what is reported on the night and who's counting the next day. My London borough is counting the next day, for ex.
Raynor is a case of turkeys voting for Xmas. Her basic instincts are thoroughly Corbynite and that would we exposed by being PM and in the full glare of media attention. Just like SKS is just so obviously a north London lawyer. But progressives are so self-congratulatory and inward looking these days they don't see it.
I wonder whether this is Milliband's chance - he protesteth too much imho
I see Ed Miliband as the steady pair of hands who can safely guide Labour to a respectable defeat and opposition.
That's preferable to choosing someone who would blow everything up and put Labour in fifth, but are Labour yet reconciled to defeat at the next GE? I suspect not, and so I think someone else will be chosen.
I must say the commentators are eating a lot of crow in the press this morning. I hold no love for SKS, but hahahahahahahahahahahaha.
The BBC need a clearout even more than Starmer's office....This Starmer out stuff has been completely led by the media. Why on earth should Starmer resign because of a bad appointment which was made in difficult circumstances and in good faith?
Some of the reporting has been whacky. If you'd arrived from Mars you'd think Starmer was personally found to have been abusing under aged girls. Mind you this site wasn't much better
I thought the defence of Starmer appointing Mandelson was that it was done in BAD faith?
I was just looking over some stuff for the May locals etc and thinking sbout how perception of the results impacts. Last year the Tories were defending pretty much all the county councils that were up and most councillors do the results looked like primarily Tory defeat - most councillors, councils etc lost. Accordingly the Tory VI in polling took a 4 or 5 poInt instant hit. Labour, whilst utterly drubbed, were only defending 280 or so wards. The analysis of what it would mean at a GE was apocalyptic for Labour and very bad for the Tories (but rather better than many of the subsequent MRPs suggested)
This time its rather different. Ignoring Scot/Wales (they will speak for themselves). county wise we just have 2 Tory ones up - Essex and Hampshire. I expect them to lose both but to be doing better thsn last year they would be looking to stop Reform taking overall conttol in Essex and remaining largest party in a NOC Hampshire. Then we have London and the district/unitaries. Labour are defending 33 outside London and 21 in London and 2100 or so wards, the Tories defend 7 outside London (incl the counties), 5 in London and 900 or so wards.
So, the story this time away from Ref, Green surging will be of Labour carnage and loss of councils (barring a miracle), theyll lose many more councils, councillors etc thsn the Tories (who will lose a lot - 300 councillors and half the councils?) Im not sure Labour can keep losses under 1000.
So.... will it hit Labour's polling like 2025 did the Tories??
More of this sort of analysis, please!
Im planning to do some fairly deep looks at how bad things might get for Lab (and Con). And where they might be able to claim they are in better shape. Much of it is a question of perception - take the Tories. Worst case for them is probably losing 9 of the 12 councils - cannot see them losing Kensington or Harrow under any circs and Broxbourne is already a hold (only a third up). So its already going to look 'better' than 2025
The issue I have with Streeting is that he is too much of an apparatchik. His politics is carefully curated rather than visceral and his hinterland away from politics seems strictly limited.
His hinterland isn’t just Strictly. He’s also known to watch the Traitors and probably Ru Paul’s Drag Race too.
Rayner coming out behind Starmer along with most of the Cabinet and more strongly than Streeting, whose Mandelson emails were in the news yesterday probably boosts her a bit in the next PM stakes. However after Cabinet support and a good PLP meeting yesterday Starmer is likely at least secure until the May local and devolved elections and beyond if Labour beat the Tories for second
It will be interesting to see how loyal the Cabinet remain if Labour get a shellacking in Gorton and Denton and in the May elections. If I wanted to be the new Labour leader I would want to take over after May, not before.
Isn't it baked in that they'll get a shellacking?
Pretty much. The available surprise is on the upside. So contrary to pundit herd narrative the byelection is a moment of jeopardy not for Keir Starmer but for those who want him gone.
Reading the messages between Streeting and Mandelson is vomit inducing. I don't see how he becomes PM now, he's tainted even more than Starmer IMO having such a close friendship to Mandelson who we now know to have been trading price sensitive information for favours. That Streeting could be blinded by what seems like infatuation for Mandelson shows very, very poor character judgement and should bar him from becoming PM.
Comments
Ref 27 (+1)
Labour 19 (=)
Con 18. (=)
Grn 16 (-1)
LD 14 (=)
8-9 Feb
Hasn't mentioned that he declined to give Mandy a job when he was leader, yet.
Slight slip up on his timeline "For twenty years this country has been run for the rich and powerful", his aide must be furiously screaming 14 in the background.
What is his USP ?
A much stronger argument for a party in opposition that needs to sort itself out, but not really for a government with years left before the next election, and a chance to actually do stuff.
Apart from what, what's his USP ?
Setting aside finally noticing what everyone has known for years about AJAX, I don't think he's yet achieved anything significant at Defence.
Will Keir sack Wes to try and look like he's a hard man? Or will we get another dreary reset address to the nation?
Angela Rayner to Reform, Katie Lam to the Lib Dems etc.
Yes! They're going to dismiss the charges against Bannon for refusing to testify before the House Jan 6 committee.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/doj-steve-bannon-criminal-charges-motion-to-dismiss/
WATCH — @balint.house.gov on the unredacted Epstein files: “There’s a bunch of sick fucks… so many people knew…. Trump never kicked Epstein out of Mar-A-Lago. That’s a lie.”
https://bsky.app/profile/thetnholler.bsky.social/post/3meichlwfqk23
What Jafar's parrot said.
Also what Rutger Bregman was not allowed to say.
I saw some analysis the other day and the stories about Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor get a lot more views/clicks than the stories about Mandy.
Remember how phone hacking would see Dave resign and cost the Tories the 2015 election?
Pollsters said it was hardly ever mentioned in the focus groups/polls, the only people who brought it up were people who were never ever voting Tory.
Ring paid somewhere between $8 and $10 million for a 30-second Super Bowl spot to tell 120 million viewers that their cameras now scan neighborhoods using AI.
The math is wild. Ring has roughly 20 million devices in American homes. Search Party is enabled by default. The opt-out rate on default settings in consumer tech is historically around 5%. So approximately 19 million cameras are now running AI pattern matching on anything that moves past your front door. Today the target is dogs. The same infrastructure already handles “Familiar Faces,” which builds biometric profiles of every person your camera sees, whether they know about it or not.
Ring settled with the FTC for $5.8 million after employees had unrestricted access to customers’ bedroom and bathroom footage for years. They’re now partnered with Flock Safety, which routes footage to local law enforcement. ICE has accessed Flock data through local police departments acting as intermediaries. Senator Markey’s investigation found Ring’s privacy protections only apply to device owners. If you’re a neighbor, a delivery driver, a passerby, you have no rights and no recourse.
This tells you everything about Amazon’s actual product. The customer paid for the camera. The customer pays the electricity. The customer pays the $3.99/month subscription. And Amazon gets a surveillance grid that would cost tens of billions to build from scratch, with an AI layer activated by default, and a law enforcement pipeline already connected.
They wrapped all of that in a lost puppy commercial because that’s the only version of this story anyone would willingly opt into.
https://x.com/aakashgupta/status/2021097860490723535?s=20
Very few one-off events shift the polls outside MOE.
Which means that Labour MPs and Labour members will have no interest in nominating him.
Keeping Starmer in place is preferable to replacing him with Miliband or Rayner.
I've nothing against the guy, but I'm unaware of any notable achievements.
And it's time for a reminder that the Defence Review was published at the beginning of June last year.
The Defence Investment Plan, intended to set out spending priorities for the next decade, was due last autumn. Still crickets.
My wider point is, to those saying Starmer should resign, be careful what you wish for! There’s plenty of options that are definitely worse for the country than keeping the incumbent in place.
Translation: Yesterday morning they were privately deciding if yesterday was the day to finish him. During the day they agreed it was not. Some of them probably reneged on a deal with Sarwar in the process.
This is politics. It suited a bunch of scorpions yesterday to act in concert. None of them could see a clear path to their ambitions. But the nature of the scorpions does not change.
It gives Starmer an interesting chance to see if the cards fall his way. If they do it would begin with an unlikely victory in G and D. But anyway between now and 26 February is aeons.
TSE will be amused to learn that he's included in those demographics.
Though probably the most honest discussion of who votes Labour according to pollsters statistics and not what Ed M said earlier.
Good morning, everybody.
Although that said, at the moment the national vote is more fragmented than the Richard III Society on discussing which ridiculously outlandish candidate might have been the 'true' killer of Edward V.
However, it should be noted it's difficult to think of any plausible candidate from any party of whom that wouldn't be true.
Why he's anybody's idea of a PM is beyond me. Labour's challenge is to selll occasionally unpalatable reform to the MPs and then sell it again to the electorate as what they need and want. That takes a big personality and some degree of personal charm. Healey has the personality and charm of a Minecraft Creeper so we can cross him off.
I do not recile from my support for Kemi despite @TSE and @HYUFD views and expect her to fight the next GE
Interestingly Miliband ruled himself out of any future leadership bid and it did seem genuine
Streeting is obviously in trouble with his disclosures yesterday on his relationship with Mandelson and I just do not see Rayner winning
If labour have any sense they need to find a unity candidate to take on Starmer
Sarwar must have been misled or his fellow rebels got cold feet as seen by Wales first minister. The meeting of the SLP this morning couod be quite fractious
I expect Greens to win Gorton and Denton comfortably which if it sends a message to Reform and Labour is good
Essentially, it's the same logic that Dorothy Parker used in Résumé.
Labour and the country looked at alternatives and they didn't like what they saw. This is his chance for a reset. A few simple things.
He is the mosrt powerful person in the country. Be his own man and do his own thing. He's a human rights lawyer. He can see injustice like the rest of us. Trump's loathed. Take your head out of his backside. Bombing Iraq isn't legal. Get off the fence and say so. No more invitations to wanted war criminals. Stop aping Farage. Apologise for your 'country of foreigners' speech. Invite back into the Party those you expelled without good reason. Get a better script writer.
Here's one.
https://thereset63.substack.com/p/eight-days-then-its-over
Raynor is a case of turkeys voting for Xmas. Her basic instincts are thoroughly Corbynite and that would we exposed by being PM and in the full glare of media attention. Just like SKS is just so obviously a north London lawyer. But progressives are so self-congratulatory and inward looking these days they don't see it.
I wonder whether this is Milliband's chance - he protesteth too much imho
Compared to GE 24 Labour have lost 14% of voters, 10% to Green, ~2% to LD and 2% to Reform. So that is fairly clear as to who they need to appeal to recover to '24.
However, should the polls really be compared to the polls in the run up to GE24 rather than actual vote %s?
Probably, in which case they've lost 20+% and that difference is to Reform.
Then the question is why the disparity, is it voters changing their mind or differences in turnout?
Also, if the true support for a party has declined from 20% to 18%, you could easily get two opinion poll scores of 19% in succession for that party on the basis of changing sample errors.
It is a bit curious though, as we were told that this issue had an extraordinary degree of cut through to the public.
Pic of Larry outside No.10
Caption:
“Starmer's only remaining employee will combine the roles of Chief of Staff and Communications Director with a massive afternoon nap”
This time its rather different. Ignoring Scot/Wales (they will speak for themselves). county wise we just have 2 Tory ones up - Essex and Hampshire. I expect them to lose both but to be doing better thsn last year they would be looking to stop Reform taking overall conttol in Essex and remaining largest party in a NOC Hampshire.
Then we have London and the district/unitaries. Labour are defending 33 outside London and 21 in London and 2100 or so wards, the Tories defend 7 outside London (incl the counties), 5 in London and 900 or so wards.
So, the story this time away from Ref, Green surging will be of Labour carnage and loss of councils (barring a miracle), theyll lose many more councils, councillors etc thsn the Tories (who will lose a lot - 300 councillors and half the councils?) Im not sure Labour can keep losses under 1000.
So.... will it hit Labour's polling like 2025 did the Tories??
Or did that memo never cross his desk?
Obviously, if by some miracle they come second, they'll be carrying Starmer round shoulder high as some all conquering hero.
Such of course is the power of good expectation management. The fact that objectively, losing a seat that safe by any margin at all should be a announcement, loud and clear, that the game is up, the fact that only a couple of weeks ago they were blocking Andy Burnham from standing, for fear he would win, the fact that it's a three way contest so the winner probably only needs to get about 30% of the vote to win. Already all forgotten.
The greens of course have the opposite problem - the punditry expect them to win, so if Reform or Labour pip them to the post, it's going to be a narrative of disappointment and setback.
It won't be Farage.
But, it may be that their support can go no lower.
John Reese: I never understood why people put all their information on those sites. Used to make our job a lot easier at the CIA.
Harold Finch: Of course. That's why I created them.
John Reese: You're telling me you invented online social networking, Finch?
Harold Finch: The Machine needed more information. People's social graph, their associations. The government had been trying to figure it out for years. Turns out most people were happy to volunteer it. Business wound up being quite profitable, too.
Some of the reporting has been whacky. If you'd arrived from Mars you'd think Starmer was personally found to have been abusing under aged girls. Mind you this site wasn't much better
Put them in the spotlight, though, and they become "our worst ever"...
I can't help but feel - given how Starmer hasn't broken the law like Johnson or tanked the economy like Truss - how much this reflects, in part, the extent the UK right-wing media still holds sway over British opinion. Sure, he's an unremarkable PM, but the worst? Really?
https://x.com/iainoverton/status/2020996418500989109
That's preferable to choosing someone who would blow everything up and put Labour in fifth, but are Labour yet reconciled to defeat at the next GE? I suspect not, and so I think someone else will be chosen.
Much of it is a question of perception - take the Tories. Worst case for them is probably losing 9 of the 12 councils - cannot see them losing Kensington or Harrow under any circs and Broxbourne is already a hold (only a third up). So its already going to look 'better' than 2025