19 months in – politicalbetting.com

System · 3:49PM

19 months in – politicalbetting.com

What cuts through & what reflects well/badly on the government? We've asked that since the election. There's plenty on both sides of the positive/negative divide – but 3 negatives – winter fuel, prisoner release & farmers IHT – have particularly high cut through & negativity

Read the full story here

DougSeal · 3:51PM

First for once

Stark_Dawning · 3:51PM

But the ultimate question is 'why?'.

DougSeal · 3:53PM

Stark_Dawning said:
But the ultimate question is 'why?'.

Because I opened the thread first and was quick to post I guess

williamglenn · 3:53PM

We need a fully post-Mandelson VI poll.

If it's Labour (-5) then Labour might feel that letting it drag on until March would just do more damage and make it harder to bounce back.

wooliedyed · 3:56PM

williamglenn said:
We need a fully post-Mandelson VI poll.

If it's Labour (-5) then Labour might feel that letting it drag on until March would just do more damage and make it harder to bounce back.

Find Out Now today will be post the news dominating but straddling PMQs etc, Opinium Saturday should be mostly post, next weeks YG (Tues) and MiC (Weds) will be fully after everything sinks in

rottenborough · 3:56PM

Interesting that minimum wage rise is so popular given that the youth side of that has been an absolute disaster for young employment especially in places like hospitality where young people v often get first taste of work.

DecrepiterJohnL · 3:56PM

Today is the eighteenth month anniversary – the what now?

Mexicanpete · 3:58PM

Roger said:

MoonRabbit said:

Andy_JS said:
"When asked if Starmer should resign, MP for Brent West Barry Gardiner said he thinks Starmer "needs to think very hard about what is in the country's best interest".

Rachael Maskell, who represents York Central, said she thinks it's "inevitable that the prime minister is going to have to step down".

Meanwhile, Rebecca Long-Bailey, who challenged Starmer in the 2020 Labour leadership race, described how appointing Mandelson was a “catastrophic misjudgement” and that Starmer had “huge questions” to answer."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/czx3lq460n6t
The problem with asking “the usual suspects” - and those names certainly are - is it doesn’t tell us anything new.

Those people would have told you they are willing to vote against Starmer in a confidence vote on every Thursday of the Parliament, not just this one. Just two weeks into his Premiership, about 25 or so of Starmer’s MPs - Corbyn’s Shadow Cabinet - would have voted against him in a confidence vote to oust him.
Correct. I listened to BBC News and it was simply a rollcall of 'Starmer outs' which would have been exactly the same people if it was taken anytime during the last 18 months. A chronic lack of imagination on the part of their researchers.

I thought Starmers apology was fulsome and there's no reason for him to go. He's a hell of a lot more honourable than several calling for him to go. Particularly those who owe him their seats which is most of them.

Labour were dead in the water before he came along

The problem here for Labour led by Starmer is the promise to the electorate was not to be Johnson or Truss.

Now I have some sympathy over why Starmer went with Mandelson. It was risky, but it might have paid dividends. It didn't.

The right thing to do from Starmer's point of view is throw in the towel. "I thought it was a risk worth taking, but it went bad. Sorry but I'm off, over to you Ange".

Malmesbury · 3:59PM

Stark_Dawning said:
But the ultimate question is 'why?'.

Two questions actually

1) “Who are you?” - asked by people who wear shower curtains
2) “What do you want?” - asked by billion year old spiders

bondegezou · 4:01PM

That's a lovely graph, but it needs a third dimension: do you care about this thing? Whether it's cut through is somewhat related to that, but you might have heard about something and not care about it.

BlancheLivermore · 4:01PM

DecrepiterJohnL said:
Today is the eighteenth month anniversary – the what now?

The third half-anniversary

Mexicanpete · 4:01PM

Malmesbury said:

Stark_Dawning said:
But the ultimate question is 'why?'.
Two questions actually

1) “Who are you?” - asked by people who wear shower curtains
2) “What do you want?” - asked by billion year old spiders

And you (quite correctly) accuse me of posting shite...

Cookie · 4:02PM

I'm presuming this is all pre-Mandelson? In terms of people-who-don't-nornally-talk-about-politics-talking-about-politics, I'd say this has more cut through than any issie since Alleygate. My mother in law was talking about it today: she (2024 Lab voter) appears to be almost blaming Keir Starmer for the activities of Jeffrey Epstein. Unfair, of course, but much of politics is.

tlg86 · 4:02PM

williamglenn said:
We need a fully post-Mandelson VI poll.

If it's Labour (-5) then Labour might feel that letting it drag on until March would just do more damage and make it harder to bounce back.

This is where Labour's poor polling might help Starmer. If they were in the high 20s, the impact could be much more pronounced.

bondegezou · 4:02PM

DecrepiterJohnL said:
Today is the eighteenth month anniversary – the what now?

Mensiversary is the word they're looking for there.

Sunil_Prasannan · 4:03PM

Roger said:

MoonRabbit said:

Andy_JS said:
"When asked if Starmer should resign, MP for Brent West Barry Gardiner said he thinks Starmer "needs to think very hard about what is in the country's best interest".

Rachael Maskell, who represents York Central, said she thinks it's "inevitable that the prime minister is going to have to step down".

Meanwhile, Rebecca Long-Bailey, who challenged Starmer in the 2020 Labour leadership race, described how appointing Mandelson was a “catastrophic misjudgement” and that Starmer had “huge questions” to answer."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/czx3lq460n6t
The problem with asking “the usual suspects” - and those names certainly are - is it doesn’t tell us anything new.

Those people would have told you they are willing to vote against Starmer in a confidence vote on every Thursday of the Parliament, not just this one. Just two weeks into his Premiership, about 25 or so of Starmer’s MPs - Corbyn’s Shadow Cabinet - would have voted against him in a confidence vote to oust him.
Correct. I listened to BBC News and it was simply a rollcall of 'Starmer outs' which would have been exactly the same people if it was taken anytime during the last 18 months. A chronic lack of imagination on the part of their researchers.

I thought Starmers apology was fulsome and there's no reason for him to go. He's a hell of a lot more honourable than several calling for him to go. Particularly those who owe him their seats which is most of them.

Labour were dead in the water before he came along

And Labour will be dead in the water in May...

squareroot2 · 4:04PM

I don't think Labour will be minus 5... Starmer might be

bondegezou · 4:04PM

Cookie said:
I'm presuming this is all pre-Mandelson? In terms of people-who-don't-nornally-talk-about-politics-talking-about-politics, I'd say this has more cut through than any issie since Alleygate. My mother in law was talking about it today: she (2024 Lab voter) appears to be almost blaming Keir Starmer for the activities of Jeffrey Epstein. Unfair, of course, but much of politics is.

Alleygate? The scandal over Kirstie Alley being replaced in Star Trek III?

FrancisUrquhart · 4:05PM

squareroot2 said:
I don't think Labour will be minus 5... Starmer might be

He already down at like only 12% giving him a thumbs up. There aren't anymore to lose, as already down to those who will say yes come what may. Same with Labour VI, its the Labour til I die / has to be Labour cos none of the others.

Battlebus · 4:06PM

The positioning of the U-turns is quite interesting. So you announce something that gets a negative, and the U-turn gets a sort of shrug.

BlancheLivermore · 4:07PM

If Starmer stays long enough, he could take Labour’s polling down to single figures

That would be a legacy to be proud of

Cookie · 4:10PM

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Roger said:

MoonRabbit said:

Andy_JS said:
"When asked if Starmer should resign, MP for Brent West Barry Gardiner said he thinks Starmer "needs to think very hard about what is in the country's best interest".

Rachael Maskell, who represents York Central, said she thinks it's "inevitable that the prime minister is going to have to step down".

Meanwhile, Rebecca Long-Bailey, who challenged Starmer in the 2020 Labour leadership race, described how appointing Mandelson was a “catastrophic misjudgement” and that Starmer had “huge questions” to answer."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/czx3lq460n6t
The problem with asking “the usual suspects” - and those names certainly are - is it doesn’t tell us anything new.

Those people would have told you they are willing to vote against Starmer in a confidence vote on every Thursday of the Parliament, not just this one. Just two weeks into his Premiership, about 25 or so of Starmer’s MPs - Corbyn’s Shadow Cabinet - would have voted against him in a confidence vote to oust him.
Correct. I listened to BBC News and it was simply a rollcall of 'Starmer outs' which would have been exactly the same people if it was taken anytime during the last 18 months. A chronic lack of imagination on the part of their researchers.

I thought Starmers apology was fulsome and there's no reason for him to go. He's a hell of a lot more honourable than several calling for him to go. Particularly those who owe him their seats which is most of them.

Labour were dead in the water before he came along
And Labour will be dead in the water in May...

Point of order: 'Fulsome' means excessive, insincere. Which I'm assuming is not what Roger means.

DougSeal · 4:10PM

BlancheLivermore said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:
Today is the eighteenth month anniversary – the what now?
The third half-anniversary

Maths never was my thing

williamglenn · 4:10PM

tlg86 said:

williamglenn said:
We need a fully post-Mandelson VI poll.

If it's Labour (-5) then Labour might feel that letting it drag on until March would just do more damage and make it harder to bounce back.
This is where Labour's poor polling might help Starmer. If they were in the high 20s, the impact could be much more pronounced.

There's a funny moment at the beginning of this retrospective on Labour's wilderness years where Neil Kinnock illustrates the mountain they had to climb by saying they were on 24% in the polls.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-DBqwerqCOs

Sunil_Prasannan · 4:10PM

NINETEEN MONTHS IN!

BlancheLivermore · 4:11PM

Cookie said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Roger said:

MoonRabbit said:

Andy_JS said:
"When asked if Starmer should resign, MP for Brent West Barry Gardiner said he thinks Starmer "needs to think very hard about what is in the country's best interest".

Rachael Maskell, who represents York Central, said she thinks it's "inevitable that the prime minister is going to have to step down".

Meanwhile, Rebecca Long-Bailey, who challenged Starmer in the 2020 Labour leadership race, described how appointing Mandelson was a “catastrophic misjudgement” and that Starmer had “huge questions” to answer."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/czx3lq460n6t
The problem with asking “the usual suspects” - and those names certainly are - is it doesn’t tell us anything new.

Those people would have told you they are willing to vote against Starmer in a confidence vote on every Thursday of the Parliament, not just this one. Just two weeks into his Premiership, about 25 or so of Starmer’s MPs - Corbyn’s Shadow Cabinet - would have voted against him in a confidence vote to oust him.
Correct. I listened to BBC News and it was simply a rollcall of 'Starmer outs' which would have been exactly the same people if it was taken anytime during the last 18 months. A chronic lack of imagination on the part of their researchers.

I thought Starmers apology was fulsome and there's no reason for him to go. He's a hell of a lot more honourable than several calling for him to go. Particularly those who owe him their seats which is most of them.

Labour were dead in the water before he came along
And Labour will be dead in the water in May...
Point of order: 'Fulsome' means excessive, insincere. Which I'm assuming is not what Roger means.

That’s why it’s the closest thing to the truth he’s ever posted away from the Oscars

SandyRentool · 4:12PM

Battlebus said:
The positioning of the U-turns is quite interesting. So you announce something that gets a negative, and the U-turn gets a sort of shrug.

That's what is so frustrating. Announce a policy to raise money, and then U-turn. Get all of the pain, but none of the gain.

Malmesbury · 4:14PM

Battlebus said:
The positioning of the U-turns is quite interesting. So you announce something that gets a negative, and the U-turn gets a sort of shrug.

That’s long been known. Hence the political opprobrium for doing u-turns.

They only limit the political damage of the original policy

Sunil_Prasannan · 4:17PM

CAN'T YOU COUNT, TSE?

5th JULY 2024 to 5th FEBRUARY 2026 is....

NINETEEN MONTHS!

bondegezou · 4:17PM

Sunil_Prasannan said:
CAN'T YOU COUNT, TSE?

5th JULY 2024 to 5th FEBRUARY 2026 is....

NINETEEN MONTHS!

But the polling that was linked to was done at 18 months.

Nigelb · 4:18PM

Cookie said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Roger said:

MoonRabbit said:

Andy_JS said:
"When asked if Starmer should resign, MP for Brent West Barry Gardiner said he thinks Starmer "needs to think very hard about what is in the country's best interest".

Rachael Maskell, who represents York Central, said she thinks it's "inevitable that the prime minister is going to have to step down".

Meanwhile, Rebecca Long-Bailey, who challenged Starmer in the 2020 Labour leadership race, described how appointing Mandelson was a “catastrophic misjudgement” and that Starmer had “huge questions” to answer."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/czx3lq460n6t
The problem with asking “the usual suspects” - and those names certainly are - is it doesn’t tell us anything new.

Those people would have told you they are willing to vote against Starmer in a confidence vote on every Thursday of the Parliament, not just this one. Just two weeks into his Premiership, about 25 or so of Starmer’s MPs - Corbyn’s Shadow Cabinet - would have voted against him in a confidence vote to oust him.
Correct. I listened to BBC News and it was simply a rollcall of 'Starmer outs' which would have been exactly the same people if it was taken anytime during the last 18 months. A chronic lack of imagination on the part of their researchers.

I thought Starmers apology was fulsome and there's no reason for him to go. He's a hell of a lot more honourable than several calling for him to go. Particularly those who owe him their seats which is most of them.

Labour were dead in the water before he came along
And Labour will be dead in the water in May...
Point of order: 'Fulsome' means excessive, insincere. Which I'm assuming is not what Roger means.

It's actually one of those awkward words which can also be used to mean generous/abundant/copious in a non-negative manner.

Shakespeare was pretty clear:
"It is as fat and fulsome to mine ear / As howling after music"

Roger, less so.

Sunil_Prasannan · 4:19PM

bondegezou said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:
CAN'T YOU COUNT, TSE?

5th JULY 2024 to 5th FEBRUARY 2026 is....

NINETEEN MONTHS!
But the polling that was linked to was done at 18 months.

But TSE wrote at the end: "Today is the eighteenth month anniversary of Sir Keir Starmer becoming Prime Minister".

Mexicanpete · 4:19PM

One has to admit it has not been a good couple of days for progressives. And fair play to them the Conservatives have found some temporary cheer. Nonetheless throwing the prospect/ threat of a Rayner Government into the mix does appear to rain on their parade.

Roger · 4:20PM

wooliedyed said:

williamglenn said:
We need a fully post-Mandelson VI poll.

If it's Labour (-5) then Labour might feel that letting it drag on until March would just do more damage and make it harder to bounce back.
Find Out Now today will be post the news dominating but straddling PMQs etc, Opinium Saturday should be mostly post, next weeks YG (Tues) and MiC (Weds) will be fully after everything sinks in

My guess would be it'll make little difference. i can't see a lot to be angry about. No one likesTrump or knows what a British Ambassador does. If the problem is Starmer's judgement then they are hardly likely to seek refuge in Farage and his New Tories

Sunil_Prasannan · 4:21PM

Sunil_Prasannan said:

bondegezou said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:
CAN'T YOU COUNT, TSE?

5th JULY 2024 to 5th FEBRUARY 2026 is....

NINETEEN MONTHS!
But the polling that was linked to was done at 18 months.
But TSE wrote at the end: "Today is the eighteenth month anniversary of Sir Keir Starmer becoming Prime Minister".

So we're agreed that TSE can't count?

Mexicanpete · 4:22PM

tlg86 said:

williamglenn said:
We need a fully post-Mandelson VI poll.

If it's Labour (-5) then Labour might feel that letting it drag on until March would just do more damage and make it harder to bounce back.
This is where Labour's poor polling might help Starmer. If they were in the high 20s, the impact could be much more pronounced.

In a "they can't go lower than zero" kind of a way?

BlancheLivermore · 4:22PM

Pride In Place was meant to be BIG for Slalom

@jessicaelgot

Have been told by many in government that the Pride in Place announcement has been ready to go for a while but delayed so the prime minister could make it a huge moment - a speech that would be a sincere articulation of his values. Inexplicable then that it comes today.

https://x.com/jessicaelgot/status/2019443317461639658

Stark_Dawning · 4:22PM

The Mandelson story appears to be running out of steam. Those who want to use it to destroy Sir Keir need to act quickly, or he goes on and on.

Scott_xP · 4:22PM

@IGcom
Broad selloff takes hold:
Down moves hit commodities hard in the red, while stocks remain relatively calm - for now.

Losses here could accelerate fast.
Best selloffs start when no one's expecting them... as feared, crypto rout contagion now spreading across the financial universe.📉
#MarketSelloff #Contagion #Crypto #Commodities

BlancheLivermore · 4:23PM

Stark_Dawning said:
The Mandelson story appears to be running out of steam. Those who want to use it to destroy Sir Keir need to act quickly, or he goes on and on.

He can't just drop an albatross; he has to wear it around his neck

Cookie · 4:23PM

Roger said:

wooliedyed said:

williamglenn said:
We need a fully post-Mandelson VI poll.

If it's Labour (-5) then Labour might feel that letting it drag on until March would just do more damage and make it harder to bounce back.
Find Out Now today will be post the news dominating but straddling PMQs etc, Opinium Saturday should be mostly post, next weeks YG (Tues) and MiC (Weds) will be fully after everything sinks in
My guess would be it'll make little difference. i can't see a lot to be angry about. No one likesTrump or knows what a British Ambassador does. If the problem is Starmer's judgement then they are hardly likely to seek refuge in Farage and his New Tories

"I can't see a lot to be angry about" - really? The females I know are fucking livid.

turbotubbs · 4:23PM

BlancheLivermore said:
Pride In Place was meant to be BIG for Slalom

@jessicaelgot

Have been told by many in government that the Pride in Place announcement has been ready to go for a while but delayed so the prime minister could make it a huge moment - a speech that would be a sincere articulation of his values. Inexplicable then that it comes today.

https://x.com/jessicaelgot/status/2019443317461639658

He has values?

Mexicanpete · 4:23PM

Roger said:

wooliedyed said:

williamglenn said:
We need a fully post-Mandelson VI poll.

If it's Labour (-5) then Labour might feel that letting it drag on until March would just do more damage and make it harder to bounce back.
Find Out Now today will be post the news dominating but straddling PMQs etc, Opinium Saturday should be mostly post, next weeks YG (Tues) and MiC (Weds) will be fully after everything sinks in
My guess would be it'll make little difference. i can't see a lot to be angry about. No one likesTrump or knows what a British Ambassador does. If the problem is Starmer's judgement then they are hardly likely to seek refuge in Farage and his New Tories

The news edits on the radio have been quite favourable for Starmer. They have focused on the 90 seconds of apology rather than the 45 minutes of shite.

Scott_xP · 4:23PM

Stark_Dawning said:
The Mandelson story appears to be running out of steam. Those who want to use it to destroy Sir Keir need to act quickly, or he goes on and on.

@DanNeidle
The Telegraph had picked up on a 2009 court application by Epstein to be released from house arrest so he could meet a senior British government figure in New York.

@tc1415

So, this is obviously the Lord Mandelson.

Which means that whilst he was a minister, an US court was being asked to vary a convicted felon's house arrest (US house arrest is way stricter than our home detention curfews, usually, btw) so they could meet.

That's..Beyond something

wooliedyed · 4:24PM

Roger said:

wooliedyed said:

williamglenn said:
We need a fully post-Mandelson VI poll.

If it's Labour (-5) then Labour might feel that letting it drag on until March would just do more damage and make it harder to bounce back.
Find Out Now today will be post the news dominating but straddling PMQs etc, Opinium Saturday should be mostly post, next weeks YG (Tues) and MiC (Weds) will be fully after everything sinks in
My guess would be it'll make little difference. i can't see a lot to be angry about. No one likesTrump or knows what a British Ambassador does. If the problem is Starmer's judgement then they are hardly likely to seek refuge in Farage and his New Tories

Probably. Might kill off the mini revival Labour were on though.

wooliedyed · 4:24PM

Stark_Dawning said:
The Mandelson story appears to be running out of steam. Those who want to use it to destroy Sir Keir need to act quickly, or he goes on and on.

The documentation will provide longer term damage. Probably well beyond Skyr and Morgan

Sunil_Prasannan · 4:25PM

Mexicanpete said:

Roger said:

wooliedyed said:

williamglenn said:
We need a fully post-Mandelson VI poll.

If it's Labour (-5) then Labour might feel that letting it drag on until March would just do more damage and make it harder to bounce back.
Find Out Now today will be post the news dominating but straddling PMQs etc, Opinium Saturday should be mostly post, next weeks YG (Tues) and MiC (Weds) will be fully after everything sinks in
My guess would be it'll make little difference. i can't see a lot to be angry about. No one likesTrump or knows what a British Ambassador does. If the problem is Starmer's judgement then they are hardly likely to seek refuge in Farage and his New Tories
The news edits on the radio have been quite favourable for Starmer. They have focused on the 90 seconds of apology rather than the 45 minutes of shite.

An apology that would put Nick Clegg to shame

turbotubbs · 4:25PM

Stark_Dawning said:
The Mandelson story appears to be running out of steam. Those who want to use it to destroy Sir Keir need to act quickly, or he goes on and on.

No point canning the man now. He needs to go after the May disaster that's coming. Why have Streeting/Raynor have to front up to losing loads of councillors and councils?

Malmesbury · 4:25PM

Nigelb said:

Cookie said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Roger said:

MoonRabbit said:

Andy_JS said:
"When asked if Starmer should resign, MP for Brent West Barry Gardiner said he thinks Starmer "needs to think very hard about what is in the country's best interest".

Rachael Maskell, who represents York Central, said she thinks it's "inevitable that the prime minister is going to have to step down".

Meanwhile, Rebecca Long-Bailey, who challenged Starmer in the 2020 Labour leadership race, described how appointing Mandelson was a “catastrophic misjudgement” and that Starmer had “huge questions” to answer."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/czx3lq460n6t
The problem with asking “the usual suspects” - and those names certainly are - is it doesn’t tell us anything new.

Those people would have told you they are willing to vote against Starmer in a confidence vote on every Thursday of the Parliament, not just this one. Just two weeks into his Premiership, about 25 or so of Starmer’s MPs - Corbyn’s Shadow Cabinet - would have voted against him in a confidence vote to oust him.
Correct. I listened to BBC News and it was simply a rollcall of 'Starmer outs' which would have been exactly the same people if it was taken anytime during the last 18 months. A chronic lack of imagination on the part of their researchers.

I thought Starmers apology was fulsome and there's no reason for him to go. He's a hell of a lot more honourable than several calling for him to go. Particularly those who owe him their seats which is most of them.

Labour were dead in the water before he came along
And Labour will be dead in the water in May...
Point of order: 'Fulsome' means excessive, insincere. Which I'm assuming is not what Roger means.
It's actually one of those awkward words which can also be used to mean generous/abundant/copious in a non-negative manner.

Shakespeare was pretty clear:
"It is as fat and fulsome to mine ear / As howling after music"

Roger, less so.

Also

When Starmer became leader, Labour was above 30% in the polls.

True, it was different times. But that isn’t dead in the water.

Cookie · 4:26PM

BlancheLivermore said:
Pride In Place was meant to be BIG for Slalom

@jessicaelgot

Have been told by many in government that the Pride in Place announcement has been ready to go for a while but delayed so the prime minister could make it a huge moment - a speech that would be a sincere articulation of his values. Inexplicable then that it comes today.

https://x.com/jessicaelgot/status/2019443317461639658

I've looked into this some more. It's a shit name. But a good idea. But yes, if this is your good news story, don't put it out today.

Sunil_Prasannan · 4:26PM

turbotubbs said:

BlancheLivermore said:
Pride In Place was meant to be BIG for Slalom

@jessicaelgot

Have been told by many in government that the Pride in Place announcement has been ready to go for a while but delayed so the prime minister could make it a huge moment - a speech that would be a sincere articulation of his values. Inexplicable then that it comes today.

https://x.com/jessicaelgot/status/2019443317461639658
He has values?

He valued Pete's friendship?

FrancisUrquhart · 4:26PM

BlancheLivermore said:
Pride In Place was meant to be BIG for Slalom

@jessicaelgot

Have been told by many in government that the Pride in Place announcement has been ready to go for a while but delayed so the prime minister could make it a huge moment - a speech that would be a sincere articulation of his values. Inexplicable then that it comes today.

https://x.com/jessicaelgot/status/2019443317461639658

The speech was terrible. If that has been preplanned for ages, the speech writers need sacking.

Mexicanpete · 4:26PM

wooliedyed said:

Roger said:

wooliedyed said:

williamglenn said:
We need a fully post-Mandelson VI poll.

If it's Labour (-5) then Labour might feel that letting it drag on until March would just do more damage and make it harder to bounce back.
Find Out Now today will be post the news dominating but straddling PMQs etc, Opinium Saturday should be mostly post, next weeks YG (Tues) and MiC (Weds) will be fully after everything sinks in
My guess would be it'll make little difference. i can't see a lot to be angry about. No one likesTrump or knows what a British Ambassador does. If the problem is Starmer's judgement then they are hardly likely to seek refuge in Farage and his New Tories
Probably. Might kill off the mini revival Labour were on though.

It'll do more than that.

I still remain shocked that Farage's Trump/ Putin adjacency gains little negative traction.

algarkirk · 4:26PM

Stark_Dawning said:
But the ultimate question is 'why?'.

It is indeed. And, like the Wikipedia game always gets you back to 'philosophy' (just played it with 'sea lion' to check. It works.), 'why always gets you back to a version of God or brute fact or 'it just is'.

So the 'why' question has to decide at what sort of level you want to stop. What kind of answer will count as an answer for you for now. True for three year olds. True for us.

wooliedyed · 4:26PM

Find Out Now looks like
Ref 31 (+2)
Con 18 (+1)
Grn 18 (-1)
Lab 16 (-1)
LD 11 (=)

Edit - Reverse Con and Grn on rounding (0.07 difference though)

rcs1000 · 4:27PM

Peter Thiel is completely sane:

https://fortune.com/2026/02/04/peter-thiel-antichrist-greta-thunberg-end-of-modernity-billionaires/

BartholomewRoberts · 4:27PM

Stereodog said:

BartholomewRoberts said:
Bemused by the money is not object (so long as we are talking about London) brigade arguing "what if Parliament burns down" as justification for spending £40bn on it, which will no doubt become £100bn all-in once done.

What if it does?

Notre Dame burnt down, and the French rebuilt it. At a tiny fraction of the cost per square metre.

Decant Parliament elsewhere, do the maintenance properly and affordably, but there should not be a blank cheque for anyone, including Parliament.
It's not projected to cost 40 billion. It's projected to cost 8.4 to 12.5 billion if MPs pick the full decant option.

https://committees.parliament.uk/committee/616/restoration-and-renewal-client-board/publications/

Notre Dame for all of its beauty is not a working building which houses the national Parliament.

Precisely, it is MPs vanity at insisting at working in a building that is not fit for purpose that is behind the cost.

Parliament has no more of a requirement to be a working building than Notre Dame does. Move the MPs out, decant, and do it at a fraction of the cost.

Problem solved.

williamglenn · 4:27PM

https://x.com/DanNeidle/status/2019429205822279907

Epstein very upset that George Osborne was blocking "my boy", Jes Staley, from becoming CEO of Barclays.

Osborne didn't know the half of it. Staley seems almost as close to Epstein as Mandelson was.

Nigelb · 4:28PM

Mexicanpete said:

Roger said:

wooliedyed said:

williamglenn said:
We need a fully post-Mandelson VI poll.

If it's Labour (-5) then Labour might feel that letting it drag on until March would just do more damage and make it harder to bounce back.
Find Out Now today will be post the news dominating but straddling PMQs etc, Opinium Saturday should be mostly post, next weeks YG (Tues) and MiC (Weds) will be fully after everything sinks in
My guess would be it'll make little difference. i can't see a lot to be angry about. No one likesTrump or knows what a British Ambassador does. If the problem is Starmer's judgement then they are hardly likely to seek refuge in Farage and his New Tories
The news edits on the radio have been quite favourable for Starmer. They have focused on the 90 seconds of apology rather than the 45 minutes of shite.

It would take someone who either loves Starmer unconditionally, or is a critic desperate for material, to listen to a full 45 minutes of him burbling on.
Not being in either category, I didn't listen to any of it, so I'm grateful to the PBers who endured it and posted their impressions.

rcs1000 · 4:29PM

Sunil_Prasannan said:
CAN'T YOU COUNT, TSE?

5th JULY 2024 to 5th FEBRUARY 2026 is....

NINETEEN MONTHS!

On the contrary, TSE can count perfectly.

Starmer's first day in Parliament as PM as 17 July, and then one has to skip all the public holidays, which gets you to 18 months.

BartholomewRoberts · 4:30PM

algarkirk said:

Stark_Dawning said:
But the ultimate question is 'why?'.
It is indeed. And, like the Wikipedia game always gets you back to 'philosophy' (just played it with 'sea lion' to check. It works.), 'why always gets you back to a version of God or brute fact or 'it just is'.

So the 'why' question has to decide at what sort of level you want to stop. What kind of answer will count as an answer for you for now. True for three year olds. True for us.

God or it just is are lazy answers for people who do not want to admit the true answer for them at that point of "I do not know".

Science is the art of figuring out the answers to those questions. Which does not involve "it just is" or "god" as the solution.

williamglenn · 4:31PM

rcs1000 said:
Peter Thiel is completely sane:

https://fortune.com/2026/02/04/peter-thiel-antichrist-greta-thunberg-end-of-modernity-billionaires/

No, it's just that his thoughts are too complex for journalists. Macron has complained about the same problem.

wooliedyed · 4:32PM

rcs1000 said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:
CAN'T YOU COUNT, TSE?

5th JULY 2024 to 5th FEBRUARY 2026 is....

NINETEEN MONTHS!
On the contrary, TSE can count perfectly.

Starmer's first day in Parliament as PM as 17 July, and then one has to skip all the public holidays, which gets you to 18 months.

'Today is the eighteenth month anniversary of Sir Keir Starmer becoming Prime Minister'
No, he can't count

nico67 · 4:32PM

wooliedyed said:
Find Out Now looks like
Ref 31 (+2)
Con 18 (+1)
Grn 18 (-1)
Lab 16 (-1)
LD 11 (=)

Edit - Reverse Con and Grn on rounding (0.07 difference though)

I expected worse for Labour given FON did that polling all yesterday .

Sunil_Prasannan · 4:32PM

rcs1000 said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:
CAN'T YOU COUNT, TSE?

5th JULY 2024 to 5th FEBRUARY 2026 is....

NINETEEN MONTHS!
On the contrary, TSE can count perfectly.

Starmer's first day in Parliament as PM as 17 July, and then one has to skip all the public holidays, which gets you to 18 months.

I don't believe it. I don't believe it! You're meant to come down here and defend me against these characters, and the only one I've got on my side is the bloodsucking lawyer!

squareroot2 · 4:32PM

rcs1000 said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:
CAN'T YOU COUNT, TSE?

5th JULY 2024 to 5th FEBRUARY 2026 is....

NINETEEN MONTHS!
On the contrary, TSE can count perfectly.

Starmer's first day in Parliament as PM as 17 July, and then one has to skip all the public holidays, which gets you to 18 months.

Nonsense.

rcs1000 · 4:35PM

Man.

Some people struggle with humour.

Malmesbury · 4:35PM

Sunil_Prasannan said:

rcs1000 said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:
CAN'T YOU COUNT, TSE?

5th JULY 2024 to 5th FEBRUARY 2026 is....

NINETEEN MONTHS!
On the contrary, TSE can count perfectly.

Starmer's first day in Parliament as PM as 17 July, and then one has to skip all the public holidays, which gets you to 18 months.
I don't believe it. I don't believe it! You're meant to come down here and defend me against these characters, and the only one I've got on my side is the bloodsucking lawyer!

You! Can’t! Handle! The! Truth!

TheScreamingEagles · 4:35PM

rcs1000 said:
Man.

Some people struggle with humour.

Indeed, the same posters struggle with subtle puns too, it goes right over their heads.

algarkirk · 4:36PM

Mexicanpete said:

wooliedyed said:

Roger said:

wooliedyed said:

williamglenn said:
We need a fully post-Mandelson VI poll.

If it's Labour (-5) then Labour might feel that letting it drag on until March would just do more damage and make it harder to bounce back.
Find Out Now today will be post the news dominating but straddling PMQs etc, Opinium Saturday should be mostly post, next weeks YG (Tues) and MiC (Weds) will be fully after everything sinks in
My guess would be it'll make little difference. i can't see a lot to be angry about. No one likesTrump or knows what a British Ambassador does. If the problem is Starmer's judgement then they are hardly likely to seek refuge in Farage and his New Tories
Probably. Might kill off the mini revival Labour were on though.
It'll do more than that.

I still remain shocked that Farage's Trump/ Putin adjacency gains little negative traction.

It gains significant notice among the 65-70% who are opposed to Reform. Nothing to see in polling as it is split all over the place. Its importance would be discovered much nearer the election, and (perhaps a bit at G and D) because it may be a factor in disparate voters ganging up to vote for whoever can beat Reform.

wooliedyed · 4:36PM

nico67 said:

wooliedyed said:
Find Out Now looks like
Ref 31 (+2)
Con 18 (+1)
Grn 18 (-1)
Lab 16 (-1)
LD 11 (=)

Edit - Reverse Con and Grn on rounding (0.07 difference though)
I expected worse for Labour given FON did that polling all yesterday .

How many of the 16% that could be actually relied on to turn out right now is more the issue (thinking of May)

Sunil_Prasannan · 4:38PM

rcs1000 said:
Man.

Some people struggle with humour.

"Humour - it is a difficult subject. It is not logical." - Lt Saavik.

squareroot2 · 4:39PM

TheScreamingEagles said:

rcs1000 said:
Man.

Some people struggle with humour.
Indeed, the same posters struggle with subtle puns too, it goes right over their heads.

I see your puns TSE.. they are usually too ghastly to comment on.

Eabhal · 4:40PM

Cookie said:

Roger said:

wooliedyed said:

williamglenn said:
We need a fully post-Mandelson VI poll.

If it's Labour (-5) then Labour might feel that letting it drag on until March would just do more damage and make it harder to bounce back.
Find Out Now today will be post the news dominating but straddling PMQs etc, Opinium Saturday should be mostly post, next weeks YG (Tues) and MiC (Weds) will be fully after everything sinks in
My guess would be it'll make little difference. i can't see a lot to be angry about. No one likesTrump or knows what a British Ambassador does. If the problem is Starmer's judgement then they are hardly likely to seek refuge in Farage and his New Tories
"I can't see a lot to be angry about" - really? The females I know are fucking livid.

*Women

Sunil_Prasannan · 4:40PM

TheScreamingEagles said:

rcs1000 said:
Man.

Some people struggle with humour.
Indeed, the same posters struggle with subtle puns too, it goes right over their heads.

5th July 2024 to 5th February 2026.

TheScreamingEagles · 4:41PM

See, because it happens so rarely, I don’t mind admitting it when I get it wrong,

18 has replaced 19.

Malmesbury · 4:41PM

Eabhal said:

Cookie said:

Roger said:

wooliedyed said:

williamglenn said:
We need a fully post-Mandelson VI poll.

If it's Labour (-5) then Labour might feel that letting it drag on until March would just do more damage and make it harder to bounce back.
Find Out Now today will be post the news dominating but straddling PMQs etc, Opinium Saturday should be mostly post, next weeks YG (Tues) and MiC (Weds) will be fully after everything sinks in
My guess would be it'll make little difference. i can't see a lot to be angry about. No one likesTrump or knows what a British Ambassador does. If the problem is Starmer's judgement then they are hardly likely to seek refuge in Farage and his New Tories
"I can't see a lot to be angry about" - really? The females I know are fucking livid.
*Women

If you are going to use that word, you need to define it.

Alanbrooke · 4:42PM

TheScreamingEagles said:
See, because it happens so rarely, I don’t mind admitting it when I get it wrong,

18 has replaced 19.

Just another Starmerite U turn from an iffy lawyer

Sunil_Prasannan · 4:43PM

TheScreamingEagles said:
See, because it happens so rarely, I don’t mind admitting it when I get it wrong,

18 has replaced 19.

You mean 19 should replace 18?

Tsk. Cambridge University education!

algarkirk · 4:43PM

BartholomewRoberts said:

algarkirk said:

Stark_Dawning said:
But the ultimate question is 'why?'.
It is indeed. And, like the Wikipedia game always gets you back to 'philosophy' (just played it with 'sea lion' to check. It works.), 'why always gets you back to a version of God or brute fact or 'it just is'.

So the 'why' question has to decide at what sort of level you want to stop. What kind of answer will count as an answer for you for now. True for three year olds. True for us.

God or it just is are lazy answers for people who do not want to admit the true answer for them at that point of "I do not know".

Science is the art of figuring out the answers to those questions. Which does not involve "it just is" or "god" as the solution.

Good luck in getting there without the aid of some stopping point.

As the atheist Bertrand Russell said: "I should say that the universe is just there, and that's all".

Brixian59 · 4:43PM

nico67 said:

wooliedyed said:
Find Out Now looks like
Ref 31 (+2)
Con 18 (+1)
Grn 18 (-1)
Lab 16 (-1)
LD 11 (=)

Edit - Reverse Con and Grn on rounding (0.07 difference though)
I expected worse for Labour given FON did that polling all yesterday .

Accepting the fact they are authorised, I frankly discount them as an outlier as a personal choice

Omnium · 4:44PM

Alanbrooke said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
See, because it happens so rarely, I don’t mind admitting it when I get it wrong,

18 has replaced 19.
Just another Starmerite U turn from an iffy lawyer

I feel like I've aged a month reading this thread.

Sunil_Prasannan · 4:45PM

nico67 said:

wooliedyed said:
Find Out Now looks like
Ref 31 (+2)
Con 18 (+1)
Grn 18 (-1)
Lab 16 (-1)
LD 11 (=)

Edit - Reverse Con and Grn on rounding (0.07 difference though)
I expected worse for Labour given FON did that polling all yesterday .

Find Outliers Now?

OldKingCole · 4:45PM

algarkirk said:

Mexicanpete said:

wooliedyed said:

Roger said:

wooliedyed said:

williamglenn said:
We need a fully post-Mandelson VI poll.

If it's Labour (-5) then Labour might feel that letting it drag on until March would just do more damage and make it harder to bounce back.
Find Out Now today will be post the news dominating but straddling PMQs etc, Opinium Saturday should be mostly post, next weeks YG (Tues) and MiC (Weds) will be fully after everything sinks in
My guess would be it'll make little difference. i can't see a lot to be angry about. No one likesTrump or knows what a British Ambassador does. If the problem is Starmer's judgement then they are hardly likely to seek refuge in Farage and his New Tories
Probably. Might kill off the mini revival Labour were on though.
It'll do more than that.

I still remain shocked that Farage's Trump/ Putin adjacency gains little negative traction.
It gains significant notice among the 65-70% who are opposed to Reform. Nothing to see in polling as it is split all over the place. Its importance would be discovered much nearer the election, and (perhaps a bit at G and D) because it may be a factor in disparate voters ganging up to vote for whoever can beat Reform.

Couple of Council by-elections today, one in Ynys Mon, a Plaid defence, and the other in North Somerset, a Labour defence.
Wonder what they'll throw up.

turbotubbs · 4:46PM

TheScreamingEagles said:

rcs1000 said:
Man.

Some people struggle with humour.
Indeed, the same posters struggle with subtle puns too, it goes right over their heads.

How would we know, as we so rarely see subtle puns.

AnneJGP · 4:47PM

Certainly feels longer to me but I was surprised to read that Mr Sunak wasn't PM for very long.

Unpopular · 4:49PM

rcs1000 said:
Peter Thiel is completely sane:

https://fortune.com/2026/02/04/peter-thiel-antichrist-greta-thunberg-end-of-modernity-billionaires/

There was an interview where Thiel mentioned that the antichrist would be obsessed with thinking about the end times...

Mexicanpete · 4:50PM

williamglenn said:
https://x.com/DanNeidle/status/2019429205822279907

Epstein very upset that George Osborne was blocking "my boy", Jes Staley, from becoming CEO of Barclays.

Osborne didn't know the half of it. Staley seems almost as close to Epstein as Mandelson was.

You haven't been following then. Staley was front and centre of the earlier file drop, and not in a good way.

wooliedyed · 4:51PM

OldKingCole said:

algarkirk said:

Mexicanpete said:

wooliedyed said:

Roger said:

wooliedyed said:

williamglenn said:
We need a fully post-Mandelson VI poll.

If it's Labour (-5) then Labour might feel that letting it drag on until March would just do more damage and make it harder to bounce back.
Find Out Now today will be post the news dominating but straddling PMQs etc, Opinium Saturday should be mostly post, next weeks YG (Tues) and MiC (Weds) will be fully after everything sinks in
My guess would be it'll make little difference. i can't see a lot to be angry about. No one likesTrump or knows what a British Ambassador does. If the problem is Starmer's judgement then they are hardly likely to seek refuge in Farage and his New Tories
Probably. Might kill off the mini revival Labour were on though.
It'll do more than that.

I still remain shocked that Farage's Trump/ Putin adjacency gains little negative traction.
It gains significant notice among the 65-70% who are opposed to Reform. Nothing to see in polling as it is split all over the place. Its importance would be discovered much nearer the election, and (perhaps a bit at G and D) because it may be a factor in disparate voters ganging up to vote for whoever can beat Reform.

Couple of Council by-elections today, one in Ynys Mon, a Plaid defence, and the other in North Somerset, a Labour defence.
Wonder what they'll throw up.

Plaid should hold Ynys Gybi easily, north Somerset is fascinating - Clevedon South is nominally one of the best parts of a Lab held seat for them but the Tories look set to take North Somerset back in MRPs, Reform always threaten and the LDs snd Greens have sone chance here too. If there really is a Kemi bounce, Con gain on 30% or so, otherwise it could go to anyone frankly

MarqueeMark · 4:51PM

Nigelb said:

Cookie said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Roger said:

MoonRabbit said:

Andy_JS said:
"When asked if Starmer should resign, MP for Brent West Barry Gardiner said he thinks Starmer "needs to think very hard about what is in the country's best interest".

Rachael Maskell, who represents York Central, said she thinks it's "inevitable that the prime minister is going to have to step down".

Meanwhile, Rebecca Long-Bailey, who challenged Starmer in the 2020 Labour leadership race, described how appointing Mandelson was a “catastrophic misjudgement” and that Starmer had “huge questions” to answer."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/czx3lq460n6t
The problem with asking “the usual suspects” - and those names certainly are - is it doesn’t tell us anything new.

Those people would have told you they are willing to vote against Starmer in a confidence vote on every Thursday of the Parliament, not just this one. Just two weeks into his Premiership, about 25 or so of Starmer’s MPs - Corbyn’s Shadow Cabinet - would have voted against him in a confidence vote to oust him.
Correct. I listened to BBC News and it was simply a rollcall of 'Starmer outs' which would have been exactly the same people if it was taken anytime during the last 18 months. A chronic lack of imagination on the part of their researchers.

I thought Starmers apology was fulsome and there's no reason for him to go. He's a hell of a lot more honourable than several calling for him to go. Particularly those who owe him their seats which is most of them.

Labour were dead in the water before he came along
And Labour will be dead in the water in May...
Point of order: 'Fulsome' means excessive, insincere. Which I'm assuming is not what Roger means.
It's actually one of those awkward words which can also be used to mean generous/abundant/copious in a non-negative manner.

Shakespeare was pretty clear:
"It is as fat and fulsome to mine ear / As howling after music"

Roger, less so.

Folsom, on the other hand, means much to Johnny Cash....

"I shot a man in Reno, just to watch him die..."

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wG0fS4DoGUc

algarkirk · 4:51PM

nico67 said:

wooliedyed said:
Find Out Now looks like
Ref 31 (+2)
Con 18 (+1)
Grn 18 (-1)
Lab 16 (-1)
LD 11 (=)

Edit - Reverse Con and Grn on rounding (0.07 difference though)
I expected worse for Labour given FON did that polling all yesterday .

A particularly crazy thing about recent polling is the Green vote. This varies in the last few weeks from being above the Labour vote to less than half the Labour vote. Something is going on with those being polled, pollsters and methodology. I wonder what it is.

If the Greens consolidate, there is an outside chance of them being a default for millions of voters, a process similar to the Jezza mania wave, whose adherents have mostly forgotten who he was. There are such strong reasons for being anti Reform, Lab and Tory that, apart from in their LD enclave, Greens look like a default in the making.

Big_G_NorthWales · 4:51PM

Sky

Parliament's Intelligence and Security Committee says it cannot commit to a timetable for reviewing documents relating to Mandelson's vetting to become US Ambassador

Hardly surprising

MoonRabbit · 4:52PM

wooliedyed said:

Stark_Dawning said:
The Mandelson story appears to be running out of steam. Those who want to use it to destroy Sir Keir need to act quickly, or he goes on and on.
The documentation will provide longer term damage. Probably well beyond Skyr and Morgan

I’m sure Starmer made an error of judgement. Why so convinced at this stage it’s fatal? We won’t get anything from “ The documentation” for weeks and months, even then it may show Mandelson proper grilled, lots of good questions, and lied through the lot of them, showing Starmer as at least being honest about his mistake, and reliable in his version of events.

Whatever we think of Starmer, and listening to him drone on today I thought he’s rubbish. But a liar?

When going for a mortgage, Mandelson was asked if he had any other debts or loans, and didn’t bother mentioning a £400,000 one. A similar shower of lies from Mandelson will get Starmer out of too much lasting damage from this mistake.

williamglenn · 4:52PM

Ghislaine Maxwell helped Mandelson line up Bill Clinton to appear at the Labour party conference:

https://www.justice.gov/epstein/files/DataSet 11/EFTA02335665.pdf

Malmesbury · 4:53PM

algarkirk said:

nico67 said:

wooliedyed said:
Find Out Now looks like
Ref 31 (+2)
Con 18 (+1)
Grn 18 (-1)
Lab 16 (-1)
LD 11 (=)

Edit - Reverse Con and Grn on rounding (0.07 difference though)
I expected worse for Labour given FON did that polling all yesterday .
A particularly crazy thing about recent polling is the Green vote. This varies in the last few weeks from being above the Labour vote to less than half the Labour vote. Something is going on with those being polled, pollsters and methodology. I wonder what it is.

Interesting that using a free gambling game gets lots of Green respondents. Or are they weighting a tiny sample into relevance?

rcs1000 · 4:53PM

To be fair to TSE, the polling all says "18 Months", and the dates on the polling all refer to January.

It is therefore fair to say it is a snapshot from last month, when the Starmer government was 18 months old.

Can we stop bickering now?

MoonRabbit · 4:53PM

Big_G_NorthWales said:
Sky

Parliament's Intelligence and Security Committee says it cannot commit to a timetable for reviewing documents relating to Mandelson's vetting to become US Ambassador

Hardly surprising

Why should it take that long? 🤷‍♀️

Malmesbury · 4:54PM

rcs1000 said:
To be fair to TSE, the polling all says "18 Months", and the dates on the polling all refer to January.

It is therefore fair to say it is a snapshot from last month, when the Starmer government was 18 months old.

Can we stop bickering now?

No.

And another thing. The rules on the stoplines for roundabouts…

Mexicanpete · 4:54PM

TheScreamingEagles said:

rcs1000 said:
Man.

Some people struggle with humour.
Indeed, the same posters struggle with subtle puns too, it goes right over their heads.

The rough and ready filth proposed by some of our more interesting posters is often negated by the earnestness of those still typing from their mum's attic room.

MarqueeMark · 4:54PM

wooliedyed said:
Find Out Now looks like
Ref 31 (+2)
Con 18 (+1)
Grn 18 (-1)
Lab 16 (-1)
LD 11 (=)

Edit - Reverse Con and Grn on rounding (0.07 difference though)

Labour's woes doing nothing for the LDs....

They seem to have fished out their pool.

19 months in – politicalbetting.com

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