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Mene, Mene, Tekel, Upharsin, Starmer’s Pincher moment – politicalbetting.com

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  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 133,652
    DavidL said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Lee Harpin on X saying he hears whispers that Lucy P is quietly on manouveres to challenge

    Oh dear.

    While I accept the argument that anybody could be better that Skir, Lucy is the exception to that...
    What about EdM?
    Starmer is like democracy for Labour. He is the absolute worst for leader. Apart from all the others.
    Burnham was a more electable alternative but Starmer blocked him becoming an MP and eligible to stand
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 65,393
    Scott_xP said:

    @ShippersUnbound
    Most ministers, were they to resign, would be accused of self interest or promoting an ally. One name I hear from officials, is Hilary Benn. He is “disgusted”. l have no evidence he will quit, but it would be an earthquake. He’s the moral heart of Labour, no one’s outrider

    Right. So in other words: no-one is going to resign.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 14,863

    Maybe its finally James Purnells moment to return to politics. The ultimate long game

    What is Chuka Umunna up to these days?
    Change UK themed party organiser
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 65,393

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    Whilst I agree Starmer is in trouble, I am not sure the Pincher analogy holds water.

    With Pincher, it wasn't simply a failure of vetting but a situation where Johnson lied about what he knew and had colleagues unwittingly sent onto the media to propogate that lie. This was also the latest in a series of incidents where Johnson had been utterly unreliable.

    That may yet turn out to be the case for Starmer, but I don't think we are there - it was a foolish appointment given Mandelson's track record, but I don't think the anger towards Mandelson for having misled Starmer is synthetic.

    For that reason, whilst there is definitely a competence issue there and it's increasingly hard to see a very long term future for Starmer, I don't really see it playing out as it did in the final days of Johnson.

    I also find the Rayner surge a little odd. She has a lot going for her, but she isn't exactly Ms Clean, the candidate of unimpeachable personal integrity.

    She's the furthest they've got from the old boy's club attitudes that led to where we are.
    I don’t think Angela Rayner is a traitor. I DO believe that about Starmer and those around him - Hermer, Sands, Powell. They loathe Britain and seek to harm Britons

    It’s that basic

    Rayner might well be an economic disaster but fuck it, how does that change anything. I don’t think Rayner will deliberately enact policies that are solely designed to harm the country she governs because she despises it

    It’s a pretty low bar but I reckon she’ll clear it
    Oh God, not this from you again: "she couldn't we worse".

    She absolutely could be fucking worse.

    I'm terrified of Rayner becoming PM.
    Eh, it'll probably be fine.

    Then again, I said that about Truss, so I don't know shit.
    People say it every time they hate someone and want a change. We heard it with Boris, Truss, Sunak and now Starmer.

    Do we ever learn?

    No, because we're too blinded by hatred for the incumbent.
    Things could certainly get worse, but that shouldn't lead us to tolerate a status quo that is inadequate. Starmer is not good enough. He has to go.

    It's then up to Labour to see if they can find anyone better, and if they can't it then becomes the job of the electorate to choose MPs who can.
    Have you seen the alternatives?

    I don't want an ultra left-wing PM in office who will spend the next few years fucking me and my family.
    Burnham is the only leadership contender who I've heard say anything that would be reckless in terms of the stability of Britain's finances, and he is safely not in the Commons.

    I know Labour politicians are always going to look more extreme to you than to me, but people like Miliband, or Cooper, or Rayner, are far from being ultra left-wing.

    They're to the left of Blairites like Starmer or Streeting, but they're far to the right of Corbyn and the Socialist Campaign Group.
    Miliband is a fucking lunatic. As his current performance at DESNZ shows.

    He is particularly dangerous because he is both dogmatic and hardworking.

    The worst sort.
  • TazTaz Posts: 24,521
    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    Channel 4 Not great for Starmerites. He made some big mistakes. He's always been too right wing for his Party and his treatment of stalwarts like Diane Abbott was inexcusable. Treating those Gaza supporters as the enemy within and banning Palestine Action will not be forgiven or forgotten.

    The kicking he's getting now is the least he could expect. The only thing that might save him is the looming figure of Farage

    It's surely too late.
    I can't see an alternative. There's no GB in the wings like Blair had. Maybe bring Milliband the elder back?
    Hazel Blears, now is your time
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 133,652

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    Whilst I agree Starmer is in trouble, I am not sure the Pincher analogy holds water.

    With Pincher, it wasn't simply a failure of vetting but a situation where Johnson lied about what he knew and had colleagues unwittingly sent onto the media to propogate that lie. This was also the latest in a series of incidents where Johnson had been utterly unreliable.

    That may yet turn out to be the case for Starmer, but I don't think we are there - it was a foolish appointment given Mandelson's track record, but I don't think the anger towards Mandelson for having misled Starmer is synthetic.

    For that reason, whilst there is definitely a competence issue there and it's increasingly hard to see a very long term future for Starmer, I don't really see it playing out as it did in the final days of Johnson.

    I also find the Rayner surge a little odd. She has a lot going for her, but she isn't exactly Ms Clean, the candidate of unimpeachable personal integrity.

    She's the furthest they've got from the old boy's club attitudes that led to where we are.
    I don’t think Angela Rayner is a traitor. I DO believe that about Starmer and those around him - Hermer, Sands, Powell. They loathe Britain and seek to harm Britons

    It’s that basic

    Rayner might well be an economic disaster but fuck it, how does that change anything. I don’t think Rayner will deliberately enact policies that are solely designed to harm the country she governs because she despises it

    It’s a pretty low bar but I reckon she’ll clear it
    Oh God, not this from you again: "she couldn't we worse".

    She absolutely could be fucking worse.

    I'm terrified of Rayner becoming PM.
    Eh, it'll probably be fine.

    Then again, I said that about Truss, so I don't know shit.
    People say it every time they hate someone and want a change. We heard it with Boris, Truss, Sunak and now Starmer.

    Do we ever learn?

    No, because we're too blinded by hatred for the incumbent.
    Things could certainly get worse, but that shouldn't lead us to tolerate a status quo that is inadequate. Starmer is not good enough. He has to go.

    It's then up to Labour to see if they can find anyone better, and if they can't it then becomes the job of the electorate to choose MPs who can.
    Have you seen the alternatives?

    I don't want an ultra left-wing PM in office who will spend the next few years fucking me and my family.
    Burnham is the only leadership contender who I've heard say anything that would be reckless in terms of the stability of Britain's finances, and he is safely not in the Commons.

    I know Labour politicians are always going to look more extreme to you than to me, but people like Miliband, or Cooper, or Rayner, are far from being ultra left-wing.

    They're to the left of Blairites like Starmer or Streeting, but they're far to the right of Corbyn and the Socialist Campaign Group.
    Miliband is a fucking lunatic. As his current performance at DESNZ shows.

    He is particularly dangerous because he is both dogmatic and hardworking.

    The worst sort.
    Farage would love Ed Miliband back as Labour leader
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,906

    Is it just me or is the argument, "we shouldn't get rid of x, because they'll only be replace by y, who is worse," being rolled out every more often these days?

    It seems to be used for everyone. Today it is Starmer. But recently it's been used for Trump, for the Ayotollahs in Iran, for Putin.

    Are people reacting to the apparent decline in global fortunes by becoming more conservative and fearful of making any change - unless they're in favour of burning everything down instead?

    Surely there's a non-Populist prospectus for change, for being optimistic about our ability to improve the future, for not tolerating failure, while being understanding that change is difficult, and might take a while to show results?

    “ Is it just me or is the argument, "we shouldn't get rid of x, because they'll only be replace by y, who is worse," being rolled out every more often these days? “


    No. I am sure you are wrong.

    I claim it’s always been there in politics.

    Remember in Yes Minister, Jim Hacker only became PM because Chancellor and supporters couldn’t bear the thought of Foreign Sec getting it, Foreign sec and supporters couldn’t stand the thought of Chancellor getting it, and Home Sec and supporters despaired at thought of both Chancellor and Foreign Sec getting it.

    We have had headers on Badenoch becoming leader to stop Jenrick, and she’s now under threat because that “firewall” has gone.

    It’s how politics has always worked.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 16,548

    Maybe its finally James Purnells moment to return to politics. The ultimate long game

    Purnell, Miliband (D), and Burnham are not MPs. The fact that Burnham and Miliband (D) appear in the next leader betting is as fanciful as Boris, Farage and Lowe appearing in the Tory betting.

    If we kept on backing horses that were not entered or backing Chelsea in the Arsenal v Spurs match is would make as much sense.

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 63,136

    rcs1000 said:

    Taz said:

    Scott_xP said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Omnium said:

    In other news - bitcoin looking decidedly sick.

    (I have no financial axe to grind in any crypto)

    Watch Microstrategy stock.
    Michael Burry, the guy who bet against housing in 2008, says the fall of bitcoin could lead to cascading loss
    Microstrategy is Michael Saylor.

    They have over 72,000 Shitcoin. Oops.
    The issue MicroStrategy has is that they borrowed money to buy Bitcoin.

    Which was great when Bitcoin was going up, but is an absolute disaster on the downside.
    It looks like their debt is a little more than $8bn, and they hold ~700,000 bitcoin, so as long as the bitcoin price doesn't threaten to fall below ~$12,000 they should be okay to ride it out.
    That's because you're only looking at debt, and not at the preferred stock that pays an 11% dividend.

    And also the fact that MicroStrategy is also spending erven more money (paid for with debt?) to try and prop up the Bitcoin price.

    The company -for what it's worth- paid $76,000 per Bitcoin. That is, it's spent $54bn on Bitcoin over the years.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 57,327
    https://x.com/nigel_farage/status/2019108697944027632

    I have written to the European Anti-Fraud Office asking them to investigate whether Peter Mandelson used his tenure as EU Trade Commissioner for personal financial gain.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 46,479

    Maybe its finally James Purnells moment to return to politics. The ultimate long game

    What is Chuka Umunna up to these days?
    Living down this presumably.

    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/05/why-chuka-umunna-intensely-relaxed-about-being-compared-peter-mandelson
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 63,136
    Right now, the Labour NEC have to be absolutely kicking themselves they didn't let Burnham stand.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 39,218
    Can anyone remember a day like this in British politics?
  • Trump expected to approve Starmer’s Chagos deal

    US president appears to have changed his mind after PM made new pledges to protect US military base


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2026/02/04/trump-expected-to-approve-starmers-chagos-deal/
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 13,217
    Andy_JS said:

    Can anyone remember a day like this in British politics?

    I remember a few in 2022 TBF
  • I hate these people with a passion.

    Crying child and ‘oblivious’ parents ruined lunch, says ex-newsreader

    Jan Leeming complains that the parents of a screaming baby and a child wandering through The Pig at Bridge Place should have organised a babysitter


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/media/article/jan-leeming-bbc-children-parents-the-pig-lunch-ftbthv2wl
  • Brixian59Brixian59 Posts: 60

    https://x.com/nigel_farage/status/2019108697944027632

    I have written to the European Anti-Fraud Office asking them to investigate whether Peter Mandelson used his tenure as EU Trade Commissioner for personal financial gain.

    Says the man who screwed the EU out of record expenses and huge salary, all in the name of lagging it off.

    Don't even mention Putin
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 16,548
    kle4 said:

    Is it just me or is the argument, "we shouldn't get rid of x, because they'll only be replace by y, who is worse," being rolled out every more often these days?

    It seems to be used for everyone. Today it is Starmer. But recently it's been used for Trump, for the Ayotollahs in Iran, for Putin.

    Are people reacting to the apparent decline in global fortunes by becoming more conservative and fearful of making any change - unless they're in favour of burning everything down instead?

    Surely there's a non-Populist prospectus for change, for being optimistic about our ability to improve the future, for not tolerating failure, while being understanding that change is difficult, and might take a while to show results?

    I think it is fair to acknowledge the risk of X being replaced by something worse, which is always there, but the specific risk is different in each situation, so shouldn't be treated as a given or even necessarily the most likely option.
    I think a fair number of Reform voters know perfectly well that Reform will be even worse than what we have had, but are so fed up with the status quo they are going to do it anyway. This is sometimes Leon's rationale for supporting Reform without being able to give a reasoned account of how they will govern (as, of course, it can't be done.)

  • HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    Whilst I agree Starmer is in trouble, I am not sure the Pincher analogy holds water.

    With Pincher, it wasn't simply a failure of vetting but a situation where Johnson lied about what he knew and had colleagues unwittingly sent onto the media to propogate that lie. This was also the latest in a series of incidents where Johnson had been utterly unreliable.

    That may yet turn out to be the case for Starmer, but I don't think we are there - it was a foolish appointment given Mandelson's track record, but I don't think the anger towards Mandelson for having misled Starmer is synthetic.

    For that reason, whilst there is definitely a competence issue there and it's increasingly hard to see a very long term future for Starmer, I don't really see it playing out as it did in the final days of Johnson.

    I also find the Rayner surge a little odd. She has a lot going for her, but she isn't exactly Ms Clean, the candidate of unimpeachable personal integrity.

    She's the furthest they've got from the old boy's club attitudes that led to where we are.
    I don’t think Angela Rayner is a traitor. I DO believe that about Starmer and those around him - Hermer, Sands, Powell. They loathe Britain and seek to harm Britons

    It’s that basic

    Rayner might well be an economic disaster but fuck it, how does that change anything. I don’t think Rayner will deliberately enact policies that are solely designed to harm the country she governs because she despises it

    It’s a pretty low bar but I reckon she’ll clear it
    Oh God, not this from you again: "she couldn't we worse".

    She absolutely could be fucking worse.

    I'm terrified of Rayner becoming PM.
    Eh, it'll probably be fine.

    Then again, I said that about Truss, so I don't know shit.
    People say it every time they hate someone and want a change. We heard it with Boris, Truss, Sunak and now Starmer.

    Do we ever learn?

    No, because we're too blinded by hatred for the incumbent.
    Things could certainly get worse, but that shouldn't lead us to tolerate a status quo that is inadequate. Starmer is not good enough. He has to go.

    It's then up to Labour to see if they can find anyone better, and if they can't it then becomes the job of the electorate to choose MPs who can.
    Have you seen the alternatives?

    I don't want an ultra left-wing PM in office who will spend the next few years fucking me and my family.
    Burnham is the only leadership contender who I've heard say anything that would be reckless in terms of the stability of Britain's finances, and he is safely not in the Commons.

    I know Labour politicians are always going to look more extreme to you than to me, but people like Miliband, or Cooper, or Rayner, are far from being ultra left-wing.

    They're to the left of Blairites like Starmer or Streeting, but they're far to the right of Corbyn and the Socialist Campaign Group.
    Miliband is a fucking lunatic. As his current performance at DESNZ shows.

    He is particularly dangerous because he is both dogmatic and hardworking.

    The worst sort.
    Farage would love Ed Miliband back as Labour leader
    Farage is yesterdays news

    I fully expect Reform to fall in the polls over this year
  • Andy_JS said:

    Can anyone remember a day like this in British politics?

    Yes.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 57,327
    Brixian59 said:

    https://x.com/nigel_farage/status/2019108697944027632

    I have written to the European Anti-Fraud Office asking them to investigate whether Peter Mandelson used his tenure as EU Trade Commissioner for personal financial gain.

    Says the man who screwed the EU out of record expenses and huge salary, all in the name of lagging it off.

    Don't even mention Putin
    Don’t you want to take the angle that he’s showing Kemi how to do opposition politics in a more cunning way?
  • trukattrukat Posts: 118
    Even if you put aside this latest shit show, Starmer has managed to make a two year old government feel old, tired, sleaze ridden and out of ideas. If this guy is the best we have, we are well and truly fucked.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 65,393
    Andy_JS said:

    Can anyone remember a day like this in British politics?

    Oh God yes.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 100,960

    Trump expected to approve Starmer’s Chagos deal

    US president appears to have changed his mind after PM made new pledges to protect US military base


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2026/02/04/trump-expected-to-approve-starmers-chagos-deal/

    More like he was reminded that he had approved of it already, so there was not really much advantage to doing more at this point.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 39,218

    Andy_JS said:

    Can anyone remember a day like this in British politics?

    Yes.
    When?
  • CookieCookie Posts: 16,748
    edited February 4
    HYUFD said:

    Angela Rayner will never win a General Election as Labour leader

    Kemi is literally praying for Rayner to become Labour leader, she is exactly the type of Labour leader who would turn off New Labour to Cameron and Tory until 2019 then Starmer in 2024 swing voters
    I don't agree. No-one is crosssing from Lab to Tory. And Rayner drives up the Reform vote in an "I dislike Labour so much I will vote for the party they most dislike" way.
  • Ugh, this is a terrible decision, I hope he appeals.

    Banker who splashed joint account cash on mistress loses £4m prenup case

    Ardal Loh-Gronager has his divorce settlement slashed after a judge finds he spent lavishly on another relationship from a joint marital account


    A City banker who drained thousands of pounds from a joint marital account to lavish on his mistress has lost £4 million in a battle over a prenuptial agreement.

    In a judgment demonstrating that judges will take behaviour into account when determining whether prenuptial agreements are enforceable, Ardal Loh-Gronager was even said to have allowed his mistress to use a Bentley that his wealthy wife had given him before they married.

    Loh-Gronager, 35, had worked at Goldman Sachs before marrying Wei-Lyn Loh, 43, described as an “enormously wealthy” businesswoman and heiress, in 2019. After the couple married, he left the bank to oversee the refurbishment of their home in Primrose Hill, north London.

    Loh-Gronager and his wife split up in 2023 after it emerged that the former banker had conducted “an expensively financed relationship … parallel to his marriage”.

    A High Court judge was told that the husband paid cash to his mistress from a joint account with his wife, frequently disguising the payments as expenditure on “flowers”.


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/law/article/banker-joint-account-mistress-loses-prenup-case-tdd9hjn66
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 21,493

    Scott_xP said:

    @ShippersUnbound
    Most ministers, were they to resign, would be accused of self interest or promoting an ally. One name I hear from officials, is Hilary Benn. He is “disgusted”. l have no evidence he will quit, but it would be an earthquake. He’s the moral heart of Labour, no one’s outrider

    Right. So in other words: no-one is going to resign.
    One of the theories doing the rounds on Centrist Dad Bluesky is that one of the causes of all of this (does scan across the entire burning horizon) is the rise of stories based on anonymous briefings.

    OK, they have always happened. Jim Hacker was teased by a hack who was going to quote him as an "informed source". But given the content mill of modern journalism, it's very easy (probably too easy) to get a quote from someone, anyone, and make a story out of it. In some ways, it's a jucier story, because it sounds like a secret. But it isn't- it's just another blooming advert, and not including the corporate logo doesn't change that. And that's to assume that all these anonymous quotes are genuine, which feels... optimistic.

    Maybe Tim Shipman has good evidence that Hilary Benn is about to resign- I don't know. We can't tell from that story.

    Named source, or it didin't happen.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 33,903
    Andy_JS said:

    David Miliband was so obviously the best choice for ambassador to the USA.

    From Starmer's perspective, Nigel Farage was 100% the best choice. He'd have gone, and Reform would be on around 12%.
  • Brixian59Brixian59 Posts: 60
    HYUFD said:

    Angela Rayner will never win a General Election as Labour leader

    Kemi is literally praying for Rayner to become Labour leader, she is exactly the type of Labour leader who would turn off New Labour to Cameron and Tory until 2019 then Starmer in 2024 swing voters
    Rayner will eat Kemi and spit her out.

    Kemis scripts won't save her
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 63,136
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Taz said:

    Scott_xP said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Omnium said:

    In other news - bitcoin looking decidedly sick.

    (I have no financial axe to grind in any crypto)

    Watch Microstrategy stock.
    Michael Burry, the guy who bet against housing in 2008, says the fall of bitcoin could lead to cascading loss
    Microstrategy is Michael Saylor.

    They have over 72,000 Shitcoin. Oops.
    The issue MicroStrategy has is that they borrowed money to buy Bitcoin.

    Which was great when Bitcoin was going up, but is an absolute disaster on the downside.
    It looks like their debt is a little more than $8bn, and they hold ~700,000 bitcoin, so as long as the bitcoin price doesn't threaten to fall below ~$12,000 they should be okay to ride it out.
    That's because you're only looking at debt, and not at the preferred stock that pays an 11% dividend.

    And also the fact that MicroStrategy is also spending erven more money (paid for with debt?) to try and prop up the Bitcoin price.

    The company -for what it's worth- paid $76,000 per Bitcoin. That is, it's spent $54bn on Bitcoin over the years.
    Remember too, that if they have to start selling Bitcoin to meet their obligations then... oh yes... the price of Bitcoin will fall.

    A cynic might suggest that a large part of the reason Bitcoin went up so much was because Microstrategy spent $55bn on buying it.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 126,105
    edited February 4
    Andy_JS said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Can anyone remember a day like this in British politics?

    Yes.
    When?
    July the 4th to July 7th 2022.

    September to October 2022.

    The day David Kelly died.

    June 24th 2016 when the Prime Minister resigning was the fifth story on the news.

    Nicola Sturgeon being arrested.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,906
    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Lee Harpin on X saying he hears whispers that Lucy P is quietly on manouveres to challenge

    Oh dear.

    While I accept the argument that anybody could be better that Skir, Lucy is the exception to that...
    What about EdM?
    Starmer is like democracy for Labour. He is the absolute worst for leader. Apart from all the others.
    Burnham was a more electable alternative but Starmer blocked him becoming an MP and eligible to stand
    Are you sure?

    Any polling showing voters of UK want Burnham as PM?
    Lost two Labour Leadership elections, one to EdM, other to Jeremy Corbyn.

    I looked upon the likes of Goofy Lucy pointing at satisfaction ratings saying how much more popular Burnham compared to Starmer as extremely embarrassing from her - everyone on PB can see that’s not comparing apples with apples. do we count being trusted as glorified car park attendant (a Mayor job) as serious trust by voters in something politically important?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 100,960

    Ugh, this is a terrible decision, I hope he appeals.

    Banker who splashed joint account cash on mistress loses £4m prenup case

    Ardal Loh-Gronager has his divorce settlement slashed after a judge finds he spent lavishly on another relationship from a joint marital account


    A City banker who drained thousands of pounds from a joint marital account to lavish on his mistress has lost £4 million in a battle over a prenuptial agreement.

    In a judgment demonstrating that judges will take behaviour into account when determining whether prenuptial agreements are enforceable, Ardal Loh-Gronager was even said to have allowed his mistress to use a Bentley that his wealthy wife had given him before they married.

    Loh-Gronager, 35, had worked at Goldman Sachs before marrying Wei-Lyn Loh, 43, described as an “enormously wealthy” businesswoman and heiress, in 2019. After the couple married, he left the bank to oversee the refurbishment of their home in Primrose Hill, north London.

    Loh-Gronager and his wife split up in 2023 after it emerged that the former banker had conducted “an expensively financed relationship … parallel to his marriage”.

    A High Court judge was told that the husband paid cash to his mistress from a joint account with his wife, frequently disguising the payments as expenditure on “flowers”.


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/law/article/banker-joint-account-mistress-loses-prenup-case-tdd9hjn66

    A relationship 'parallel to [a] marriage' is a legal term of art I assume.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 42,250
    @ianbremmer

    mackenzie scott could do the funniest thing ever.
  • Brixian59 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Angela Rayner will never win a General Election as Labour leader

    Kemi is literally praying for Rayner to become Labour leader, she is exactly the type of Labour leader who would turn off New Labour to Cameron and Tory until 2019 then Starmer in 2024 swing voters
    Rayner will eat Kemi and spit her out.

    Kemis scripts won't save her
    You really are fixated with Kemi

    She certainly is getting to you
  • kle4 said:

    Ugh, this is a terrible decision, I hope he appeals.

    Banker who splashed joint account cash on mistress loses £4m prenup case

    Ardal Loh-Gronager has his divorce settlement slashed after a judge finds he spent lavishly on another relationship from a joint marital account


    A City banker who drained thousands of pounds from a joint marital account to lavish on his mistress has lost £4 million in a battle over a prenuptial agreement.

    In a judgment demonstrating that judges will take behaviour into account when determining whether prenuptial agreements are enforceable, Ardal Loh-Gronager was even said to have allowed his mistress to use a Bentley that his wealthy wife had given him before they married.

    Loh-Gronager, 35, had worked at Goldman Sachs before marrying Wei-Lyn Loh, 43, described as an “enormously wealthy” businesswoman and heiress, in 2019. After the couple married, he left the bank to oversee the refurbishment of their home in Primrose Hill, north London.

    Loh-Gronager and his wife split up in 2023 after it emerged that the former banker had conducted “an expensively financed relationship … parallel to his marriage”.

    A High Court judge was told that the husband paid cash to his mistress from a joint account with his wife, frequently disguising the payments as expenditure on “flowers”.


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/law/article/banker-joint-account-mistress-loses-prenup-case-tdd9hjn66

    A relationship 'parallel to [a] marriage' is a legal term of art I assume.
    I once used the term 'I spent a romantic break with a woman who was not my wife.'
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 13,217
    edited February 4
    Andy_JS said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Can anyone remember a day like this in British politics?

    Yes.
    When?
    19 October 2022 springs to mind.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 100,960

    Andy_JS said:

    David Miliband was so obviously the best choice for ambassador to the USA.

    From Starmer's perspective, Nigel Farage was 100% the best choice. He'd have gone, and Reform would be on around 12%.
    But most of the arguments on why Farage would have done better, eg his better relationship with Trump, also kind of relied on the idea that Farage would be willing to set aside his personal thoughts and policies which helped that relationship, in order to advance the diplomatic wishes of a Starmer government. So I don't see why he would have even wanted it.
  • DumbosaurusDumbosaurus Posts: 980
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Taz said:

    Scott_xP said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Omnium said:

    In other news - bitcoin looking decidedly sick.

    (I have no financial axe to grind in any crypto)

    Watch Microstrategy stock.
    Michael Burry, the guy who bet against housing in 2008, says the fall of bitcoin could lead to cascading loss
    Microstrategy is Michael Saylor.

    They have over 72,000 Shitcoin. Oops.
    The issue MicroStrategy has is that they borrowed money to buy Bitcoin.

    Which was great when Bitcoin was going up, but is an absolute disaster on the downside.
    It looks like their debt is a little more than $8bn, and they hold ~700,000 bitcoin, so as long as the bitcoin price doesn't threaten to fall below ~$12,000 they should be okay to ride it out.
    That's because you're only looking at debt, and not at the preferred stock that pays an 11% dividend.

    And also the fact that MicroStrategy is also spending erven more money (paid for with debt?) to try and prop up the Bitcoin price.

    The company -for what it's worth- paid $76,000 per Bitcoin. That is, it's spent $54bn on Bitcoin over the years.
    Remember too, that if they have to start selling Bitcoin to meet their obligations then... oh yes... the price of Bitcoin will fall.

    A cynic might suggest that a large part of the reason Bitcoin went up so much was because Microstrategy spent $55bn on buying it.
    I'm very grateful I had a dark web drug habit in 2012.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 133,652

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Lee Harpin on X saying he hears whispers that Lucy P is quietly on manouveres to challenge

    Oh dear.

    While I accept the argument that anybody could be better that Skir, Lucy is the exception to that...
    What about EdM?
    Starmer is like democracy for Labour. He is the absolute worst for leader. Apart from all the others.
    Burnham was a more electable alternative but Starmer blocked him becoming an MP and eligible to stand
    Are you sure?

    Any polling showing voters of UK want Burnham as PM?
    Lost two Labour Leadership elections, one to EdM, other to Jeremy Corbyn.

    I looked upon the likes of Goofy Lucy pointing at satisfaction ratings saying how much more popular Burnham compared to Starmer as extremely embarrassing from her - everyone on PB can see that’s not comparing apples with apples. do we count being trusted as glorified car park attendant (a Mayor job) as serious trust by voters in something politically important?
    Yes, More in Common found a Burnham led Labour would be on 30% compared to a Starmer led Labour on 25%, taking a 2% lead over Reform on 28%.
    https://www.gbnews.com/politics/andy-burnham-keir-starmer-reform-uk-poll
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 33,903

    Trump expected to approve Starmer’s Chagos deal

    US president appears to have changed his mind after PM made new pledges to protect US military base


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2026/02/04/trump-expected-to-approve-starmers-chagos-deal/

    I think this deal dies with Starmer's career.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 133,652
    Cookie said:

    HYUFD said:

    Angela Rayner will never win a General Election as Labour leader

    Kemi is literally praying for Rayner to become Labour leader, she is exactly the type of Labour leader who would turn off New Labour to Cameron and Tory until 2019 then Starmer in 2024 swing voters
    I don't agree. No-one is crosssing from Lab to Tory. And Rayner drives up the Reform vote in an "I dislike Labour so much I will vote for the party they most dislike" way.
    Plenty of centrist swing voters still voting Labour, the hard left Corbyn loving vote is largely voting Green or Your Party or Workers Party
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 100,960

    Scott_xP said:

    @ShippersUnbound
    Most ministers, were they to resign, would be accused of self interest or promoting an ally. One name I hear from officials, is Hilary Benn. He is “disgusted”. l have no evidence he will quit, but it would be an earthquake. He’s the moral heart of Labour, no one’s outrider

    Right. So in other words: no-one is going to resign.
    One of the theories doing the rounds on Centrist Dad Bluesky is that one of the causes of all of this (does scan across the entire burning horizon) is the rise of stories based on anonymous briefings.

    OK, they have always happened. Jim Hacker was teased by a hack who was going to quote him as an "informed source". But given the content mill of modern journalism, it's very easy (probably too easy) to get a quote from someone, anyone, and make a story out of it. In some ways, it's a jucier story, because it sounds like a secret. But it isn't- it's just another blooming advert, and not including the corporate logo doesn't change that. And that's to assume that all these anonymous quotes are genuine, which feels... optimistic.

    Maybe Tim Shipman has good evidence that Hilary Benn is about to resign- I don't know. We can't tell from that story.

    Named source, or it didin't happen.
    It's like a vague prophecy that can only be understood once the events in question have already passed - utterly pointless.
  • Taz said:

    Sticking with the hapless Skyr through the next election isn't a runner.

    So if t'were done, better it were done pretty damn soon.

    Rayner looks to be frontrunner. She clearly wants the gig.

    There is a risk that she is woeful, loses the markets and becomes Labour's very own Liz Truss. With all that entails for replacing her and the damage that does to the brand.

    But it won't be dull.

    SKS is Johnson
    Rayner will be Truss
    So which Labour leadership candidate will be Sunak.
    Cooper
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 133,652
    edited February 4
    Brixian59 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Angela Rayner will never win a General Election as Labour leader

    Kemi is literally praying for Rayner to become Labour leader, she is exactly the type of Labour leader who would turn off New Labour to Cameron and Tory until 2019 then Starmer in 2024 swing voters
    Rayner will eat Kemi and spit her out.

    Kemis scripts won't save her
    Yougov favourables. Kemi -26%, Rayner -38%, Streeting -25% (Starmer is -54% and Farage -35%).

    So Rayner is still more unpopular than Farage let alone Kemi, only Streeting beats both with Yougov sampled voters
    https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/53741-political-favourability-ratings-december-2025
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,906
    edited February 4

    Andy_JS said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Can anyone remember a day like this in British politics?

    Yes.
    When?
    July the 4th to July 7th 2022.

    September to October 2022.

    The day David Kelly died.

    June 24th 2016 when the Prime Minister resigning was the fifth story on the news.

    Nicola Sturgeon being arrested.
    In 1986 Didn’t Lady Thatcher tell those around her she might be out as PM by end of day, when her defence secretary walked out of cabinet and resigned? She used another minister as sacrificial lamb to save herself, and won a big Landslide General Election a year later, that’s how good she was 😌

    One thing about Starmer’s cabinet, it never seems to have much anti Starmer or anti each other going on in there at that level. Boring people being boring. It’s only McSweeney that makes this Labour government remotely bitchy and interesting. From a Conservative Party point of view, don’t want to have the McSweeney goat hog tied and sacrificed. Do we?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 133,652

    Taz said:

    Sticking with the hapless Skyr through the next election isn't a runner.

    So if t'were done, better it were done pretty damn soon.

    Rayner looks to be frontrunner. She clearly wants the gig.

    There is a risk that she is woeful, loses the markets and becomes Labour's very own Liz Truss. With all that entails for replacing her and the damage that does to the brand.

    But it won't be dull.

    SKS is Johnson
    Rayner will be Truss
    So which Labour leadership candidate will be Sunak.
    Cooper
    Streeting
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 57,609
    scampi25 said:

    scampi25 said:

    scampi25 said:

    Cookie said:

    Starmer exit in 2026 now shortened to 1.54:1, which is the shortest I've seen it. That's easy money if you're convinced he's going this year. (I'm not. I think those odds are about right.)

    I think they're too short personally and have added to my currently massively offside lay, and will take more if 1.35 trades (looking v possible). Still, squeaky bum.

    This is a huge story in the political bubble but it doesn't feel to me to have as much cut through to the real world as Boris did.

    There is also an amusing irony irony that some of the markets will atm be being driven by someone much like Mandelson leaking what's going on amongst MPs to traders...
    Didn’t we hear news yesterday that it had severe cut through on focus groups?

    The Epstein angle, which brought down Andrew, surely makes it quite high profile.
    At a politically focussed focus group, sure.

    But when Boris's various scandals were going on, it was a topic of conversation amongst normies in the office. Pub bores would make jokes about it. I'm just not feeling the same sense of the country at large carying atm.

    Maybe I'm just talking my position, idk :)
    It's being joked about by the not-very-politically-engaged where I work. I'd say people are even crosser about the arrogance and entitlement on display here than they were about Boris.
    It’s the money that cuts through most. How can you get a free 75K gift and not remember anything about it? That’s what can cut through into actual votes. Provided we can connect Mandelson to the Labour government, not let them say he was rogue and it’s not their fault.
    Remember the old rule, Tory scandals are about sex, Labour scandals are about money.
    And who can forget how half the cabinet rushed in after the election for free suits, football tickets and birthday parties. Pretty cheap stuff of course but Labour don't really do classy.
    I have two words for you. "Lulu" and "Lytle".
    Not a Scooby doo what you mean.
    Best if you look that up for yourself then. The reference should be easy to follow to the point I was making.
    Can't be arsed.
    https://www.scad.edu/scadstyle2025/guests/lulu-lytle
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 22,293
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Taz said:

    Scott_xP said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Omnium said:

    In other news - bitcoin looking decidedly sick.

    (I have no financial axe to grind in any crypto)

    Watch Microstrategy stock.
    Michael Burry, the guy who bet against housing in 2008, says the fall of bitcoin could lead to cascading loss
    Microstrategy is Michael Saylor.

    They have over 72,000 Shitcoin. Oops.
    The issue MicroStrategy has is that they borrowed money to buy Bitcoin.

    Which was great when Bitcoin was going up, but is an absolute disaster on the downside.
    It looks like their debt is a little more than $8bn, and they hold ~700,000 bitcoin, so as long as the bitcoin price doesn't threaten to fall below ~$12,000 they should be okay to ride it out.
    That's because you're only looking at debt, and not at the preferred stock that pays an 11% dividend.

    And also the fact that MicroStrategy is also spending erven more money (paid for with debt?) to try and prop up the Bitcoin price.

    The company -for what it's worth- paid $76,000 per Bitcoin. That is, it's spent $54bn on Bitcoin over the years.
    Remember too, that if they have to start selling Bitcoin to meet their obligations then... oh yes... the price of Bitcoin will fall.

    A cynic might suggest that a large part of the reason Bitcoin went up so much was because Microstrategy spent $55bn on buying it.
    One thing I'm curious about is how much bitcoin has effectively been lost because people have lost the password for it, died and not left instructions about it, etc.

    So I was kinda surprised to see that MicroStrategy own ~700k bitcoin. That's 1/30th of the theoretical maximum supply.

    If we compare to gold there's estimated to have been about 215k tonnes of gold mined of which the US has the largest reserves of 8133 tonnes. So the US Federal Reserve holds a slightly higher proportion of the world's gold than Microstrategy does of the world's bitcoin.

    That definitely feels a bit mad.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 16,548
    Haven't heard much from Jess Phillips recently.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 16,748
    HYUFD said:

    Cookie said:

    HYUFD said:

    Angela Rayner will never win a General Election as Labour leader

    Kemi is literally praying for Rayner to become Labour leader, she is exactly the type of Labour leader who would turn off New Labour to Cameron and Tory until 2019 then Starmer in 2024 swing voters
    I don't agree. No-one is crosssing from Lab to Tory. And Rayner drives up the Reform vote in an "I dislike Labour so much I will vote for the party they most dislike" way.
    Plenty of centrist swing voters still voting Labour, the hard left Corbyn loving vote is largely voting Green or Your Party or Workers Party
    Well, fair enough - we'll see.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 21,493

    Andy_JS said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Can anyone remember a day like this in British politics?

    Yes.
    When?
    July the 4th to July 7th 2022.

    September to October 2022.

    The day David Kelly died.

    June 24th 2016 when the Prime Minister resigning was the fifth story on the news.

    Nicola Sturgeon being arrested.
    In 1986 Didn’t Lady Thatcher tell those around her she might be out as PM by end of day, when her defence secretary walked out of cabinet and resigned? She used another minister as sacrificial lamb to save herself, and won a big Landslide General Election a year later, that’s how good she was 😌

    One thing about Starmer’s cabinet, it never seems to have much anti Starmer or anti each other going on in there at that level. Boring people being boring. It’s only McSweeney that makes this Labour government remotely bitchy and interesting. From a Conservative Party point of view, don’t want to have the McSweeney goat hog tied and sacrificed. Do we?
    There's a tension here.

    On one hand, forcing individuals out of government is one of the few bits of achievement that an opposition politician can point to. The role is inherently negative, and that corrodes the soul.

    On the other, forcing bad actors out of government is the patriotic thing to do.

    On the third hand... You can make a decent case that Labour lost the 1992 General Election on November 22, 1990. If an opposition forces an unpopular government to regenerate, they might delay the time that they can take proper power themselves.
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 2,211

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Taz said:

    Scott_xP said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Omnium said:

    In other news - bitcoin looking decidedly sick.

    (I have no financial axe to grind in any crypto)

    Watch Microstrategy stock.
    Michael Burry, the guy who bet against housing in 2008, says the fall of bitcoin could lead to cascading loss
    Microstrategy is Michael Saylor.

    They have over 72,000 Shitcoin. Oops.
    The issue MicroStrategy has is that they borrowed money to buy Bitcoin.

    Which was great when Bitcoin was going up, but is an absolute disaster on the downside.
    It looks like their debt is a little more than $8bn, and they hold ~700,000 bitcoin, so as long as the bitcoin price doesn't threaten to fall below ~$12,000 they should be okay to ride it out.
    That's because you're only looking at debt, and not at the preferred stock that pays an 11% dividend.

    And also the fact that MicroStrategy is also spending erven more money (paid for with debt?) to try and prop up the Bitcoin price.

    The company -for what it's worth- paid $76,000 per Bitcoin. That is, it's spent $54bn on Bitcoin over the years.
    Remember too, that if they have to start selling Bitcoin to meet their obligations then... oh yes... the price of Bitcoin will fall.

    A cynic might suggest that a large part of the reason Bitcoin went up so much was because Microstrategy spent $55bn on buying it.
    One thing I'm curious about is how much bitcoin has effectively been lost because people have lost the password for it, died and not left instructions about it, etc.

    So I was kinda surprised to see that MicroStrategy own ~700k bitcoin. That's 1/30th of the theoretical maximum supply.

    If we compare to gold there's estimated to have been about 215k tonnes of gold mined of which the US has the largest reserves of 8133 tonnes. So the US Federal Reserve holds a slightly higher proportion of the world's gold than Microstrategy does of the world's bitcoin.

    That definitely feels a bit mad.
    And gold has some practical uses.
    Has Trump put the US taxpayer on the hook for supporting bitcoin etc yet?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,906

    Trump expected to approve Starmer’s Chagos deal

    US president appears to have changed his mind after PM made new pledges to protect US military base


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2026/02/04/trump-expected-to-approve-starmers-chagos-deal/

    I think this deal dies with Starmer's career.
    Really? 🙄

    After all the deep dive and research I have done into this, you never even bothered to listen, have you.

    It’s an India and US deal.
    Since UK done a Mandleson back in the sixties and sold our soul for US nuclear weaponry, UK has never been in control of this partnership with US, who call all the shots.
    That Mauritius is in pocket of China is massively bigged up - India is behind Mauritius ownership and the rent back.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 12,563
    kle4 said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Scott_xP said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Omnium said:

    In other news - bitcoin looking decidedly sick.

    (I have no financial axe to grind in any crypto)

    Watch Microstrategy stock.
    Michael Burry, the guy who bet against housing in 2008, says the fall of bitcoin could lead to cascading loss
    Microstrategy is Michael Saylor.

    They have over 72,000 Shitcoin. Oops.
    Interesting piece in Telegraph today saying Quantum Computing will make bitcoin worthless.
    I need to find this as I haven’t got a clue what this is.
    If Quantum Computing can be made to work at a reasonable scale then all current encryption will be worthless as you will be able to try all the possible keys at once.
    I've heard this before, and am curious whether there are not other methods of encryption which are quantum-proof, as it were, given the possibility of breaching current methods has clearly been widely raised as a possibility, so surely people have thought about ways to beat it.
    Current methods are always vulnerable to brute force attacks. They rely on being complex enough that brute force is impractical.

    Quantum upends that calculation
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 12,492
    Telegraph have resurrected the question as to how Mandelson suddenly became wealthy - in trouble over a few hundred thousand loan one minute and buying an £8m house the next. I remember how dodgy it looked at the time.

    The Met could do worse than dig in to his historical finances.
  • isamisam Posts: 43,494
    edited February 4
    algarkirk said:

    Haven't heard much from Jess Phillips recently.

    I had £100 at 50/1 on her to be the next Labour leader... hope she isn't because I think i have thrown away the slips!

    EDIT Actualy I have just found them, they were less than one foot away from me.. and it was £50, so I feel like I have won £50
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 24,353
    HYUFD said:

    Cookie said:

    HYUFD said:

    Angela Rayner will never win a General Election as Labour leader

    Kemi is literally praying for Rayner to become Labour leader, she is exactly the type of Labour leader who would turn off New Labour to Cameron and Tory until 2019 then Starmer in 2024 swing voters
    I don't agree. No-one is crosssing from Lab to Tory. And Rayner drives up the Reform vote in an "I dislike Labour so much I will vote for the party they most dislike" way.
    Plenty of centrist swing voters still voting Labour, the hard left Corbyn loving vote is largely voting Green or Your Party or Workers Party
    Nobody is voting Your Party as they aren't fielding candidates.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 42,250
    Everything Trump touches dies

    It would be spectacular if that applies to crypto...
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 65,393

    Trump expected to approve Starmer’s Chagos deal

    US president appears to have changed his mind after PM made new pledges to protect US military base


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2026/02/04/trump-expected-to-approve-starmers-chagos-deal/

    I think this deal dies with Starmer's career.
    Really? 🙄

    After all the deep dive and research I have done into this, you never even bothered to listen, have you.

    It’s an India and US deal.
    Since UK done a Mandleson back in the sixties and sold our soul for US nuclear weaponry, UK has never been in control of this partnership with US, who call all the shots.
    That Mauritius is in pocket of China is massively bigged up - India is behind Mauritius ownership and the rent back.
    Probably true.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,875
    edited February 4
    David Hencke (ex The Guardian) on BBC News Channel:

    In 1998, Mandelson was living in small, dingy flat.

    Wanted to move to Notting Hill.

    Got £373,000 from Geoffrey Robinson (Lab MP). Didn't disclose this to his Building Society.

    What went wrong?

    The above came out as he didn't bother inviting Robinson to the house warming!!!
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 18,549

    I know intellectual snobbery is a very unappealing trait but Angela Raynor is someone of very limited education. Being Prime minister is a very demanding job. Would she handle it? Possibly. But she might also be found out very quickly.

    She's got street smarts. That'll do for Labour
    I think that's half right. It's not intelligence that is needed as a PM, or technical knowledge from education and experience, it's judgement.

    I'm not certain that Rayner's judgement is great, and her short record as a minister is also not inspiring, but lack of education is certainly not her problem.
    But would she be able to string together a government ? What if it falls in the House of Commons. If the King were savvy, which he isn't of course he would ask Kemi to form a government. I really can see a General Election now, probably June. The idea that out Ange could hold a goverment together for over a month is quite frankly absurd.
    LOL
  • I've never touched Crypto.

    I've always thought it was the South Sea Bubble of the 21stC

    Crypto has always smelled like Dutch tulips to me.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 18,549

    Maybe its finally James Purnells moment to return to politics. The ultimate long game

    What is Chuka Umunna up to these days?
    Change UK themed party organiser
    He joined the LibDems and now works at JP Morgan.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 18,549

    https://x.com/nigel_farage/status/2019108697944027632

    I have written to the European Anti-Fraud Office asking them to investigate whether Peter Mandelson used his tenure as EU Trade Commissioner for personal financial gain.

    Given they've already started an investigation, what was the point of doing that, Nige?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 57,327
    Taz said:

    Sticking with the hapless Skyr through the next election isn't a runner.

    So if t'were done, better it were done pretty damn soon.

    Rayner looks to be frontrunner. She clearly wants the gig.

    There is a risk that she is woeful, loses the markets and becomes Labour's very own Liz Truss. With all that entails for replacing her and the damage that does to the brand.

    But it won't be dull.

    SKS is Johnson
    Rayner will be Truss
    So which Labour leadership candidate will be Sunak.
    If you take the comparison literally, it will be whoever he promotes after he sacks Rachel Reeves.
  • Trump expected to approve Starmer’s Chagos deal

    US president appears to have changed his mind after PM made new pledges to protect US military base


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2026/02/04/trump-expected-to-approve-starmers-chagos-deal/

    I think this deal dies with Starmer's career.
    Really? 🙄

    After all the deep dive and research I have done into this, you never even bothered to listen, have you.

    It’s an India and US deal.
    Since UK done a Mandleson back in the sixties and sold our soul for US nuclear weaponry, UK has never been in control of this partnership with US, who call all the shots.
    That Mauritius is in pocket of China is massively bigged up - India is behind Mauritius ownership and the rent back.
    Seems a good explanation
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 18,549
    Andy_JS said:

    Can anyone remember a day like this in British politics?

    Yes, lots! When Truss went. When Johnson went. When May went. When Cameron went. Some of the Brexit debates in Parliament. The prorogation row. Etc.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 24,353

    I've never touched Crypto.

    I've always thought it was the South Sea Bubble of the 21stC

    Crypto has always smelled like Dutch tulips to me.
    Or the stuff you would use to fertilise the tulips.
  • RattersRatters Posts: 1,764
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Taz said:

    Scott_xP said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Omnium said:

    In other news - bitcoin looking decidedly sick.

    (I have no financial axe to grind in any crypto)

    Watch Microstrategy stock.
    Michael Burry, the guy who bet against housing in 2008, says the fall of bitcoin could lead to cascading loss
    Microstrategy is Michael Saylor.

    They have over 72,000 Shitcoin. Oops.
    The issue MicroStrategy has is that they borrowed money to buy Bitcoin.

    Which was great when Bitcoin was going up, but is an absolute disaster on the downside.
    It looks like their debt is a little more than $8bn, and they hold ~700,000 bitcoin, so as long as the bitcoin price doesn't threaten to fall below ~$12,000 they should be okay to ride it out.
    That's because you're only looking at debt, and not at the preferred stock that pays an 11% dividend.

    And also the fact that MicroStrategy is also spending erven more money (paid for with debt?) to try and prop up the Bitcoin price.

    The company -for what it's worth- paid $76,000 per Bitcoin. That is, it's spent $54bn on Bitcoin over the years.
    Remember too, that if they have to start selling Bitcoin to meet their obligations then... oh yes... the price of Bitcoin will fall.

    A cynic might suggest that a large part of the reason Bitcoin went up so much was because Microstrategy spent $55bn on buying it.
    Another issue bitcoin has is it's no longer the latest shiny toy for tech bros. That's AI

    I wonder how far it'll fall as leveraged long positions as forced to sell and other large holders see what might be their best exit opportunity for a long time.

    The sooner the crypto industry collapses the better. It has simply been a negative sum drain on resources and people's lives. Like a giant coal burning casino.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,906

    Trump expected to approve Starmer’s Chagos deal

    US president appears to have changed his mind after PM made new pledges to protect US military base


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2026/02/04/trump-expected-to-approve-starmers-chagos-deal/

    I think this deal dies with Starmer's career.
    Really? 🙄

    After all the deep dive and research I have done into this, you never even bothered to listen, have you.

    It’s an India and US deal.
    Since UK done a Mandleson back in the sixties and sold our soul for US nuclear weaponry, UK has never been in control of this partnership with US, who call all the shots.
    That Mauritius is in pocket of China is massively bigged up - India is behind Mauritius ownership and the rent back.
    Probably true.
    I am completely sure future history books with write this Chagos deal up as rise of India as influential Superpower in the region, along with US policy of the last 100 years screwing UK overseas territorial possessions and influence.

    I posted - “what about India’s influence in the Chagos Deal” into a thread on this on ConHome, and all I got was a forest of bewildered question marks. ConHome completely embarrassed itself. 😕

    You are a cut above the Faragists as a listener and thinker, Casino.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 22,047

    Taz said:

    Sticking with the hapless Skyr through the next election isn't a runner.

    So if t'were done, better it were done pretty damn soon.

    Rayner looks to be frontrunner. She clearly wants the gig.

    There is a risk that she is woeful, loses the markets and becomes Labour's very own Liz Truss. With all that entails for replacing her and the damage that does to the brand.

    But it won't be dull.

    SKS is Johnson
    Rayner will be Truss
    So which Labour leadership candidate will be Sunak.
    If you take the comparison literally, it will be whoever he promotes after he sacks Rachel Reeves.
    That sounds like Tessio and Clemenza (Godfather 1 funeral scene)
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 5,853

    Maybe its finally James Purnells moment to return to politics. The ultimate long game

    What is Chuka Umunna up to these days?
    Podcast with Lembit Öpik. Raking it in on Spotify.

    (Not really. Though possibly. Who can say these days.)
  • Ratters said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Taz said:

    Scott_xP said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Omnium said:

    In other news - bitcoin looking decidedly sick.

    (I have no financial axe to grind in any crypto)

    Watch Microstrategy stock.
    Michael Burry, the guy who bet against housing in 2008, says the fall of bitcoin could lead to cascading loss
    Microstrategy is Michael Saylor.

    They have over 72,000 Shitcoin. Oops.
    The issue MicroStrategy has is that they borrowed money to buy Bitcoin.

    Which was great when Bitcoin was going up, but is an absolute disaster on the downside.
    It looks like their debt is a little more than $8bn, and they hold ~700,000 bitcoin, so as long as the bitcoin price doesn't threaten to fall below ~$12,000 they should be okay to ride it out.
    That's because you're only looking at debt, and not at the preferred stock that pays an 11% dividend.

    And also the fact that MicroStrategy is also spending erven more money (paid for with debt?) to try and prop up the Bitcoin price.

    The company -for what it's worth- paid $76,000 per Bitcoin. That is, it's spent $54bn on Bitcoin over the years.
    Remember too, that if they have to start selling Bitcoin to meet their obligations then... oh yes... the price of Bitcoin will fall.

    A cynic might suggest that a large part of the reason Bitcoin went up so much was because Microstrategy spent $55bn on buying it.
    Another issue bitcoin has is it's no longer the latest shiny toy for tech bros. That's AI

    I wonder how far it'll fall as leveraged long positions as forced to sell and other large holders see what might be their best exit opportunity for a long time.

    The sooner the crypto industry collapses the better. It has simply been a negative sum drain on resources and people's lives. Like a giant coal burning casino.
    It has also now been shown not to work as a hedge against fiat currency weakness, stock market volatility, political upheaval etc etc. The old school hedge, gold, has been rocketing.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 16,548
    isam said:

    algarkirk said:

    Haven't heard much from Jess Phillips recently.

    I had £100 at 50/1 on her to be the next Labour leader... hope she isn't because I think i have thrown away the slips!

    EDIT Actualy I have just found them, they were less than one foot away from me.. and it was £50, so I feel like I have won £50
    I don't think it's a winner. I wonder about her because she has gone quiet, but I can imagine what she would have to say if Boris, for example, appointed a child abuser's close friend as USA ambassador, and that friend then betrayed the country's interests and was shown to have shared amused sexual thoughts with the child abuser.

    I had always felt that with Jess Phillips, who I admire, stuff like this would not have party boundaries but the same principle would apply to all. It's troubling.

    As Wikipedia reminds me:

    A member of the Labour Party, she has served as Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State for Safeguarding and Violence Against Women and Girls since July 2024.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 57,639

    Andy_JS said:

    Can anyone remember a day like this in British politics?

    Yes, lots! When Truss went. When Johnson went. When May went. When Cameron went. Some of the Brexit debates in Parliament. The prorogation row. Etc.
    Having utterly dominated politics for so long, the day Thatcher went was way more important.
  • I've never touched Crypto.

    I've always thought it was the South Sea Bubble of the 21stC

    My son got really into crypto during lockdown and ended up making about £100k from it - enough to pay his university fees and living expenses up front. Thankfully he's out of it now; he sold his last holdings at the end of last year.
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 2,211
    kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @ShippersUnbound
    Most ministers, were they to resign, would be accused of self interest or promoting an ally. One name I hear from officials, is Hilary Benn. He is “disgusted”. l have no evidence he will quit, but it would be an earthquake. He’s the moral heart of Labour, no one’s outrider

    Right. So in other words: no-one is going to resign.
    One of the theories doing the rounds on Centrist Dad Bluesky is that one of the causes of all of this (does scan across the entire burning horizon) is the rise of stories based on anonymous briefings.

    OK, they have always happened. Jim Hacker was teased by a hack who was going to quote him as an "informed source". But given the content mill of modern journalism, it's very easy (probably too easy) to get a quote from someone, anyone, and make a story out of it. In some ways, it's a jucier story, because it sounds like a secret. But it isn't- it's just another blooming advert, and not including the corporate logo doesn't change that. And that's to assume that all these anonymous quotes are genuine, which feels... optimistic.

    Maybe Tim Shipman has good evidence that Hilary Benn is about to resign- I don't know. We can't tell from that story.

    Named source, or it didin't happen.
    It's like a vague prophecy that can only be understood once the events in question have already passed - utterly pointless.
    If Hilary Benn resigned how long would it take for anyone to notice?
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 5,853
    Scott_xP said:
    "Dear Director Ratcliffe, I write to alert you to a classified letter I sent you earlier today in which I express deep concerns about CIA activities. Thank you for your attention to this important matter."

    It means absolutely zero to me. Good or bad or indifferent.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 13,217
    ohnotnow said:

    Scott_xP said:
    "Dear Director Ratcliffe, I write to alert you to a classified letter I sent you earlier today in which I express deep concerns about CIA activities. Thank you for your attention to this important matter."

    It means absolutely zero to me. Good or bad or indifferent.
    That’s what I thought. Is there some context I’m missing?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,906
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Lee Harpin on X saying he hears whispers that Lucy P is quietly on manouveres to challenge

    Oh dear.

    While I accept the argument that anybody could be better that Skir, Lucy is the exception to that...
    What about EdM?
    Starmer is like democracy for Labour. He is the absolute worst for leader. Apart from all the others.
    Burnham was a more electable alternative but Starmer blocked him becoming an MP and eligible to stand
    Are you sure?

    Any polling showing voters of UK want Burnham as PM?
    Lost two Labour Leadership elections, one to EdM, other to Jeremy Corbyn.

    I looked upon the likes of Goofy Lucy pointing at satisfaction ratings saying how much more popular Burnham compared to Starmer as extremely embarrassing from her - everyone on PB can see that’s not comparing apples with apples. do we count being trusted as glorified car park attendant (a Mayor job) as serious trust by voters in something politically important?
    Yes, More in Common found a Burnham led Labour would be on 30% compared to a Starmer led Labour on 25%, taking a 2% lead over Reform on 28%.
    https://www.gbnews.com/politics/andy-burnham-keir-starmer-reform-uk-poll
    No. It’s voodoo polling. Everyone responding to that poll are comparing a real thing, that taxes and hurts them, with a fantasy thing that currently doesn’t.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 18,549

    I've never touched Crypto.

    I've always thought it was the South Sea Bubble of the 21stC

    My son got really into crypto during lockdown and ended up making about £100k from it - enough to pay his university fees and living expenses up front. Thankfully he's out of it now; he sold his last holdings at the end of last year.
    It is a bubble, and a bunch of people have made good money out of it. Both of these things can be true. Lots of people made money out of the South Sea bubble.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 18,549
    DougSeal said:

    ohnotnow said:

    Scott_xP said:
    "Dear Director Ratcliffe, I write to alert you to a classified letter I sent you earlier today in which I express deep concerns about CIA activities. Thank you for your attention to this important matter."

    It means absolutely zero to me. Good or bad or indifferent.
    That’s what I thought. Is there some context I’m missing?
    Dunno? Connected to the Tulsi Gabbard/whistleblower story?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 42,250
    ohnotnow said:

    Scott_xP said:
    "Dear Director Ratcliffe, I write to alert you to a classified letter I sent you earlier today in which I express deep concerns about CIA activities. Thank you for your attention to this important matter."

    It means absolutely zero to me. Good or bad or indifferent.
    The assumption is it is related to this

    https://x.com/vplus/status/2019139538892079475?s=20
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 133,652
    edited February 4
    'Reform ready to govern?' with Kuenssberg on BBC2 now, including interviews with Farage and Jenrick
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 8,676
    Dopermean said:

    kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @ShippersUnbound
    Most ministers, were they to resign, would be accused of self interest or promoting an ally. One name I hear from officials, is Hilary Benn. He is “disgusted”. l have no evidence he will quit, but it would be an earthquake. He’s the moral heart of Labour, no one’s outrider

    Right. So in other words: no-one is going to resign.
    One of the theories doing the rounds on Centrist Dad Bluesky is that one of the causes of all of this (does scan across the entire burning horizon) is the rise of stories based on anonymous briefings.

    OK, they have always happened. Jim Hacker was teased by a hack who was going to quote him as an "informed source". But given the content mill of modern journalism, it's very easy (probably too easy) to get a quote from someone, anyone, and make a story out of it. In some ways, it's a jucier story, because it sounds like a secret. But it isn't- it's just another blooming advert, and not including the corporate logo doesn't change that. And that's to assume that all these anonymous quotes are genuine, which feels... optimistic.

    Maybe Tim Shipman has good evidence that Hilary Benn is about to resign- I don't know. We can't tell from that story.

    Named source, or it didin't happen.
    It's like a vague prophecy that can only be understood once the events in question have already passed - utterly pointless.
    If Hilary Benn resigned how long would it take for anyone to notice?
    It’s only over once Lord Faulkner resigns.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 57,639
    Scott_xP said:

    ohnotnow said:

    Scott_xP said:
    "Dear Director Ratcliffe, I write to alert you to a classified letter I sent you earlier today in which I express deep concerns about CIA activities. Thank you for your attention to this important matter."

    It means absolutely zero to me. Good or bad or indifferent.
    The assumption is it is related to this

    https://x.com/vplus/status/2019139538892079475?s=20
    There's been much talk of Tulsi Gabbard being a Russian asset.
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 2,211
    Kuenesberg fronting a Reform puff piece on BBC2
    She's a shit journalist.
  • I've never touched Crypto.

    I've always thought it was the South Sea Bubble of the 21stC

    My son got really into crypto during lockdown and ended up making about £100k from it - enough to pay his university fees and living expenses up front. Thankfully he's out of it now; he sold his last holdings at the end of last year.
    It is a bubble, and a bunch of people have made good money out of it. Both of these things can be true. Lots of people made money out of the South Sea bubble.
    Before that it was CS:GO skins, which he worked out how to make a profit from. I helped him build a tool to automate buying and selling skins, and in the end he sold the tool itself. That and the trading profits provided the seed money for the crypto trading.

    The seed money for the skin trading come from selling FIFA coins to his classmates.
  • I've never touched Crypto.

    I've always thought it was the South Sea Bubble of the 21stC

    My son got really into crypto during lockdown and ended up making about £100k from it - enough to pay his university fees and living expenses up front. Thankfully he's out of it now; he sold his last holdings at the end of last year.
    It is a bubble, and a bunch of people have made good money out of it. Both of these things can be true. Lots of people made money out of the South Sea bubble.
    Before that it was CS:GO skins, which he worked out how to make a profit from. I helped him build a tool to automate buying and selling skins, and in the end he sold the tool itself. That and the trading profits provided the seed money for the crypto trading.

    The seed money for the skin trading come from selling FIFA coins to his classmates.
    Edit: I believe to bottom has dropped out of the CSGO skin trading market too now.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 42,250
    @muellershewrote.com‬

    BREAKING: Judge Boasberg has GRANTED our motion to compel in our DOGE FOIA case involving Musk's phone(s). The government must now reach out to Sean Duffy and multiple Republican Senators to comply.

    https://bsky.app/profile/muellershewrote.com/post/3me2qmlnc722o
  • HYUFD said:

    'Reform ready to govern?' with Kuenssberg on BBC2 now, including interviews with Farage and Jenrick

    What else do you expect them to say ?

    They are 3 years away from a GE and plenty of time to be found out
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 21,493
    HYUFD said:

    'Reform ready to govern?' with Kuenssberg on BBC2 now, including interviews with Farage and Jenrick

    Please let the conclusion be Betteridge's law. The remaining 58 minutes can be filled with repeats of The Day Today and Ferdinand de Bargos.

    (Kuenssberg is a symptom of a wider problem. She's great at telling us what politicians are thinking, even when they don't want to say it out loud with their name attached. What is actually happening, beyond Westminster games... rather less so.)
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 42,250
    @timothysnyder.bsky.social‬

    Great work by Greg Sargent. We are, right now, deciding whether we want to be a land of giant concentration camps and ethnic cleanings.

    https://bsky.app/profile/timothysnyder.bsky.social/post/3me2q3bni5s2o
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