politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ahead of what Ipsos-MORI is describing as a “corker” of a p

Options
124»

Comments

  • MikeK
    MikeK Posts: 9,053

    Miliband Thinks Lord Fink Tax Issue is a “Milly Dowler Moment” http://t.co/3prMsykamM pic.twitter.com/9JAO4sCoOr

    — Guido Fawkes (@GuidoFawkes) February 12, 2015
  • GIN1138
    GIN1138 Posts: 22,938
    edited February 2015
    Scott_P said:

    @JoeMurphyLondon: EXCLUSIVE POLL - by @IpsosMORI in @EveningStandard. Labour 36% (+2); Con 34 (+1); UKIP 9 (-2); Green 7 (-1) LD 6 (-2) ..... (cont. 1/3)

    EICIPM

  • isam
    isam Posts: 42,205
    Scott_P said:

    @JoeMurphyLondon: EXCLUSIVE LORD FINK INTERVIEW. Everyone avoids tax, says peer. He admits setting up family trusts in Switzerland http://t.co/FbMXGbV6ws

    Blimey if he wasn't a tory everyone on here would be calling him a bottler!
  • MikeK
    MikeK Posts: 9,053
    edited February 2015
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    @JoeMurphyLondon: EXCLUSIVE POLL - by @IpsosMORI in @EveningStandard. Labour 36% (+2); Con 34 (+1); UKIP 9 (-2); Green 7 (-1) LD 6 (-2) ..... (cont. 1/3)

    As I thought an anti-climax. Their methodology is what makes UKIP numbers so low. The whole poll a waste of space.
  • Richard_Nabavi
    Richard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    @JoeMurphyLondon: EXCLUSIVE POLL - by @IpsosMORI in @EveningStandard. Labour 36% (+2); Con 34 (+1); UKIP 9 (-2); Green 7 (-1) LD 6 (-2) ..... (cont. 1/3)

    Not particularly corking
  • TGOHF
    TGOHF Posts: 21,633
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    @JoeMurphyLondon: EXCLUSIVE POLL - by @IpsosMORI in @EveningStandard. Labour 36% (+2); Con 34 (+1); UKIP 9 (-2); Green 7 (-1) LD 6 (-2) ..... (cont. 1/3)

    Single Fish !

  • BenM
    BenM Posts: 1,795
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    @JoeMurphyLondon: EXCLUSIVE POLL - by @IpsosMORI in @EveningStandard. Labour 36% (+2); Con 34 (+1); UKIP 9 (-2); Green 7 (-1) LD 6 (-2) ..... (cont. 1/3)

    Excellent poll for Lab.

    Now is time to air the hypothesis that Ashcroft's polls are telling Tories what they want to hear.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    @JoeMurphyLondon: EXCLUSIVE POLL - by @IpsosMORI in @EveningStandard. Labour 36% (+2); Con 34 (+1); UKIP 9 (-2); Green 7 (-1) LD 6 (-2) ..... (cont. 1/3)

    Others up 2 - implies a decent poll for the Nats...
  • logical_song
    logical_song Posts: 10,082
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    JohnLilburne said:

    I would have thought that his reputation would actually be damaged if it was said he hadn't engaged in tax avoidance and had paid more tax than he needed to. Surely tax avoidance itself should be deemed a neutral phrase.

    Pretty hard for Ed's lawyers to argue that when he's said it's 'dodgy'.
    The potential legal action may be bad for Miliband, but is it good for the Tories?
    Lord Fink is treasurer of the Conservative Party and has donated £2.62m to the Conservative party. He is one of the top 20 biggest donors to the Conservative Party.
    It'll remind people where the Tories get their money from and may explain how tax can be avoided perfectly legally.
  • isam
    isam Posts: 42,205
    TGOHF said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    @JoeMurphyLondon: EXCLUSIVE POLL - by @IpsosMORI in @EveningStandard. Labour 36% (+2); Con 34 (+1); UKIP 9 (-2); Green 7 (-1) LD 6 (-2) ..... (cont. 1/3)

    Single Fish !

    Base kipper!
  • OblitusSumMe
    OblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    GIN1138 said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    For all excitement ahead of @IpsosMORI 's "corker" of a poll less than £1,000 has been matched on Betfair 's majority market since 4am

    I think the "corker" element is Lib's on 6%.

    It IS pretty astonishing that the Lib's could be doing that badly just weeks from the election, but it generally seem's to be pretty much "priced in" now....
    6% would be a new low for the Lib Dems from Ipsos-Mori, if not for other firms, so it represents a further weakening of their position/an outlier (delete as appropriate).
  • GIN1138
    GIN1138 Posts: 22,938
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    @JoeMurphyLondon: EXCLUSIVE POLL - by @IpsosMORI in @EveningStandard. Labour 36% (+2); Con 34 (+1); UKIP 9 (-2); Green 7 (-1) LD 6 (-2) ..... (cont. 1/3)

    Not particularly corking
    Lib-Dems facing total oblivion weeks before an election is quite shocking. Just we've all got used to it.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    Others excluding Lib Dem, Green, UKIP on 8% !!!
  • JohnO
    JohnO Posts: 4,312
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    @JoeMurphyLondon: EXCLUSIVE POLL - by @IpsosMORI in @EveningStandard. Labour 36% (+2); Con 34 (+1); UKIP 9 (-2); Green 7 (-1) LD 6 (-2) ..... (cont. 1/3)

    Have you now won loads of dosh, half of which goes to cocktails in Bournemouth with Bobajob?
  • TheWatcher
    TheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    LD 6.

    Oh my.
  • MaxPB
    MaxPB Posts: 40,327
    So life imitates art. The Ukraine-Russia ceasefire deal feels a lot like the Federation-Cardassian treaty, one side will stick to it and force their people to do so and the other will brazenly break it and continue to ship weapons into the ceasefire zone.

    There is no compromise with warlords like Putin, we can only defeat them, this is going to end badly.
  • Dair
    Dair Posts: 6,108
    Scott_P said:

    @MrHarryCole: “@GuidoFawkes: Miliband Thinks Lord Fink Tax Issue is a “Milly Dowler Moment” http://t.co/owQKdJiLth http://t.co/dIxUVjLHnA” classy

    @JGForsyth: First, weaponise. Now, 'another Milly Dowler moment'. Labour needs to stop showing how the sausage is made, it is not edifying

    If he has said that on tape or on camera, surely Miliband is finished?
  • Roger
    Roger Posts: 20,744
    Cyclefree

    "A candidate for Prime Minister should have integrity. Libelling someone - if that is the case - is not the mark of someone with integrity."

    It's a very grey area. A newspaper was forced to pay 5p for calling Christine Keeler 'a shameless slut'. The jury agreed she'd been libelled but her reputation was already damaged.

    If Miliband called into question the integrity of any one of a dozen bankers in 2009 the precise detail of the libel would be of little importance.

    Indeed politicians are libelling people all the time. Didn't Edward Heath call Tiny Rowland 'The unacceptable face of capitalism'?
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    @JoeMurphyLondon: (2/3) Worst Lib Dem share for 25 years in superb @IpsosMORI poll. But most humiliating, they're behind the combined SNP/Plaid share of 7%
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    Dair said:

    Scott_P said:

    @MrHarryCole: “@GuidoFawkes: Miliband Thinks Lord Fink Tax Issue is a “Milly Dowler Moment” http://t.co/owQKdJiLth http://t.co/dIxUVjLHnA” classy

    @JGForsyth: First, weaponise. Now, 'another Milly Dowler moment'. Labour needs to stop showing how the sausage is made, it is not edifying

    If he has said that on tape or on camera, surely Miliband is finished?
    One of his "aides" did, apparently.

    Ed isn't that stupid.
  • MarqueeMark
    MarqueeMark Posts: 55,459
    So UKIP in single figures, LibDems at extinction event levels, a straight fight between Labour and the Tories emerging....

    meh.
  • MaxPB
    MaxPB Posts: 40,327
    edited February 2015
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    @JoeMurphyLondon: EXCLUSIVE POLL - by @IpsosMORI in @EveningStandard. Labour 36% (+2); Con 34 (+1); UKIP 9 (-2); Green 7 (-1) LD 6 (-2) ..... (cont. 1/3)

    That's a let down. Not much of a corker.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    edited February 2015
    JohnO said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    @JoeMurphyLondon: EXCLUSIVE POLL - by @IpsosMORI in @EveningStandard. Labour 36% (+2); Con 34 (+1); UKIP 9 (-2); Green 7 (-1) LD 6 (-2) ..... (cont. 1/3)

    Have you now won loads of dosh, half of which goes to cocktails in Bournemouth with Bobajob?
    Alas no. I owe Mr Price £20

    But I'm confident I'll be winning £400 from Neil in May
  • OblitusSumMe
    OblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Ed has won

    @JoeMurphyLondon: EXCLUSIVE LORD FINK INTERVIEW. Everyone avoids tax, says peer. He admits setting up family trusts in Switzerland http://t.co/FbMXGbV6ws

    The normal man on the street doesn't have enough money to make setting up a family trust to legally avoid tax a financially viable approach to take, which is why legal tax avoidance can be almost as toxic as illegal tax evasion.

    It's one tax system for the rich and another for everyone else.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    @JoeMurphyLondon: (2/3) Worst Lib Dem share for 25 years in superb @IpsosMORI poll. But most humiliating, they're behind the combined SNP/Plaid share of 7%

    Labour must be absolutely romping it in England with those numbers ?
  • MikeK
    MikeK Posts: 9,053
    edited February 2015
    MarqueeMark said:

    So UKIP in single figures, LibDems at extinction event levels, a straight fight between Labour and the Tories emerging....

    meh.

    meh? You're right, it's a load of bollocks.
  • Cyclefree
    Cyclefree Posts: 25,709
    Scott_P said:

    @MrHarryCole: “@GuidoFawkes: Miliband Thinks Lord Fink Tax Issue is a “Milly Dowler Moment” http://t.co/owQKdJiLth http://t.co/dIxUVjLHnA” classy

    @JGForsyth: First, weaponise. Now, 'another Milly Dowler moment'. Labour needs to stop showing how the sausage is made, it is not edifying

    A Milly Dowler moment. Really.

    I may be wrong on this. But wasn't it eventually shown that the hacking of her phone (which I did not like) did not in fact result in the deletion of her email messages?

    If it's a Milly Dowler moment then EdM is going to have to say that Fink has done something criminal. That's quite a racheting up.

  • OblitusSumMe
    OblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Pulpstar said:

    Others excluding Lib Dem, Green, UKIP on 8% !!!

    And the two-party share on 70%, which is astonishing.
  • Anorak
    Anorak Posts: 6,621
    Re: 6% LD

    There was a thread (yesterday?) which showed the lead the Tories need over Labour falls as LD share falls. Does that continue with LDs on sub-10%, or is that an unreasonable extrapolation?
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    New thread.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    Con Gain Twickenham looks on with those numbers too...
  • Richard_Nabavi
    Richard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    GIN1138 said:

    Lib-Dems facing total oblivion weeks before an election is quite shocking. Just we've all got used to it.

    Yes, this is true, but most recent polls have the LibDems bouncing around 6% to 9% so this one is nothing special.
  • Roger
    Roger Posts: 20,744
    "GIN1138 said:

    So do with think the upshot of today's MORI will be EMWNBPM or EICIPM?"

    My feeling is that as we've had maybe 20 odd polls in the last couple of weeks all showing roughly the same result the only thing this one will tell us is how accurate or otherwise MORI is as a pollster
  • Dair
    Dair Posts: 6,108
    Not really a corker this poll pretty much just confirms what has been seen elsewhere.

    Kippers are finished.
    Green LibDem crossover is pretty much confirmed.

    Only thing it really suggests is Green/Kipper crossover is close now.
  • BenM
    BenM Posts: 1,795
    Tory strategy tip:

    Instead of all the rabid attempts to smear Ed MIliband on a daily basis why don't Tories put out some genuinely popular policies?

    Starting point: Rein in your idiotic CCHQPress twitter feed.
  • Anorak
    Anorak Posts: 6,621
    edited February 2015
    BenM said:

    Starting point: Rein in your idiotic CCHQPress twitter feed.

    How influential do you really think that is? I'd guess you'd struggle to measure it.
  • logical_song
    logical_song Posts: 10,082
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    @JoeMurphyLondon: EXCLUSIVE POLL - by @IpsosMORI in @EveningStandard. Labour 36% (+2); Con 34 (+1); UKIP 9 (-2); Green 7 (-1) LD 6 (-2) ..... (cont. 1/3)

    Not great for the minor parties, UKIP, LibDem and Green all in single figures. I suppose it's OK for the Greens as now within 2% of UKIP.
    Still, movements within MoR.
  • Cyclefree
    Cyclefree Posts: 25,709
    edited February 2015
    OblitusSumMe said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Ed has won

    @JoeMurphyLondon: EXCLUSIVE LORD FINK INTERVIEW. Everyone avoids tax, says peer. He admits setting up family trusts in Switzerland http://t.co/FbMXGbV6ws

    The normal man on the street doesn't have enough money to make setting up a family trust to legally avoid tax a financially viable approach to take, which is why legal tax avoidance can be almost as toxic as illegal tax evasion.

    It's one tax system for the rich and another for everyone else.
    Most pensions and life insurance policies are in effect trusts. Far more of us benefit from trusts than just the rich of this world.

    I may be old-fashioned but I rather like the idea of the rule of law. The law gets made. You comply with it. And you have the certainty of knowing that having complied with the law you are not going to be pursued by the state just because it doesn't like you - for some other reason - in an arbitrary, capricious or even malicious manner.

    The barons felt a bit like this when they forced Magna Carta on King John 800 years ago.

    Judging by some of the comments Labour seem to think that caprice and ad hominem insults rather than the law are a good basis for government. This is a fundamentally and dangerously unserious position for Labour to take. Aren't there any grown-ups left in it?
  • FrankBooth
    FrankBooth Posts: 10,022
    BenM said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    @JoeMurphyLondon: EXCLUSIVE POLL - by @IpsosMORI in @EveningStandard. Labour 36% (+2); Con 34 (+1); UKIP 9 (-2); Green 7 (-1) LD 6 (-2) ..... (cont. 1/3)

    Excellent poll for Lab.

    Now is time to air the hypothesis that Ashcroft's polls are telling Tories what they want to hear.
    Well possibly but I can't see it as deliberate. Would Ashcroft really spend serious amounts of his own money allowing the Tories to delude themselves before an election?

    The lesson to follow is the Scottish nationalists. They genuinely thought they were going to win the referendum because of internal polling done by a Canadian firm. The reality was that the firm was telling them what they wanted to hear. I would be very very suspicious of anyone saying that their internal polling is much better than the national polls.
This discussion has been closed.

Categories