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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ahead of what Ipsos-MORI is describing as a “corker” of a poll NOM moves to its tightest level ever on the Betfair Exchange
As to the betting moves it is very hard to argue against. The pathways to both Tory and Labour overall majorities look very difficult based on what we know at the moment. But remember what Harold Macmillan used to describe as “Events dear boy”. Anything can happen.
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Well, few more hours and the speculation will be over. Hope it really lives up to its billing.
As for HSBC I've a feeling it could horribly backfire for Miliband. His performance yesterday has left a nasty smell under the noses of a lot of neutrals.
If Greece does end up falling out of the Euro in the next couple of weeks there will, I think, be several major consequences most of which will probably be good for the tories
Firstly, there will be a huge rise in uncertainty as the markets at least have a go at Portugal and possibly a couple of others. Once it is possible to leave the Euro it becomes a completely different animal. This will encourage voters to focus on the economy and who they trust to deal with it much more than is currently the case where it is generally perceived things are going reasonably well.
Secondly, we will have a real time demonstration of the consequences of not being responsible with public finances as Greece tumbles into chaos. For parties that are not trusted to be responsible on public spending such as Labour and the SNP this will be a problem.
Thirdly, as the markets become more risk adverse for sovereign debt the price of not adopting Osborne's more aggressive position on the deficit (not that aggressive in fact but more so than the others) will increase.
Finally, although the details of all of this will undoubtedly pass most voters by the mood music in the media will undoubtedly darken with the usual hyperbolic nonsense being spouted by the usual suspects (yes AEP, I mean you). This will generally make voters more cautious about change.
So come on Greece Overplay your hand (again). It could be a game changer.
The man is such a tool.
LOL
"Aides to Mr Miliband said he would repeat the claims at a speaking engagement in central London on Thursday, a move which could leave the Labour leader mired in a protracted and expensive libel trial."
What is on the public record is that Lord Fink had an account with HSBC in Switzerland. What is most certainly not on the public record is that that account had anything to do with tax avoidance or evasion. To know that one would have to know that the account and any interest earned from it was not declared to HMRC. This is of course entirely confidential and a matter for the tax Authorities and Lord Fink.
It seems to me that Ed Miliband has made an extremely dangerous leap here. There is nothing "dodgy" about having a bank account, even in Switzerland. If he really repeats his allegations without the benefit of Parliamentary privilege he could be bringing a whole heap of trouble on himself. OTOH if he hides behind Parliamentary privilege like some maverick backbencher he will be condemned as a coward. That may well be the safer option.
And abuse Parliamentary Privilege again, some other time.
It wouldn't take much movement between Greens and Lib Dems, in either direction, and an outlier on the UKIP share on the low side, to put UKIP lower than third for the first time in eleven months (with Ipsos-Mori). UKIP have only had four poll shares in single figures, with any pollster, in the last twelve months. An outlier of that nature is perhaps inevitable, and would these days be considered notable, so far have UKIP come.
@Sun_Politics: Ukip leader Nigel Farage to attack capitalism in bid to steal Labour votes: http://t.co/2wfBLRen8K
Do you get your information from Ruth Davidson by chance or are you just unable to take your blue specs off. Very poor given some of your other stuff is intelligent.
PS: Wishing bad luck and the consequences that would cause the public in Greece, just for the Tories to get some advantage is very odious and typical Tory attitude. It is little wonder Tories are called the nasty party.
In the two years or so they attempted "austerity" and say their economy tank 15% in GDP at PPP per capita then drop another 10% when they stopped austerity and Defaulted their debt, GDP at PPP per capita has nearly doubled going from around USD10k to USD18k in the 12 years since then.
You can't overplay your hand when there isn't a downside. They either default and fact a high growth future or they get a haircut and face a moderate growth future without an initial shock.
The problem is entirely with the Troika and the IMF cartel who face another humiliation when a country rejects their "solutions".
UK population was 54m in 1964, 59m in 2001, its now 64m, so its grown as much in the past 14 years as in the preceding 37 years. http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/pop-estimate/population-estimates-for-uk--england-and-wales--scotland-and-northern-ireland/2013/index.html
If the population has grown by around 9% in the last 14 years, that means that all the budgets for services need to have grown by around 9% in real terms just to stand still and give the same provision they haven't. We need to either commit to increase services in line with immigration, or reduce immigration, if we want to increase them we need to pay for them properly, not off the magic money tree.
There is, I suppose, more joy in heaven over one sinner which repenteth.........
What I did say is that if people become more cautious as a result of the wheels coming off in Greece Nicola Sturgeon's gambit of arguing that public spending should be increased by around £50bn a year to spend our way to growth might become a lot less credible.
I might add that although her positioning is quite skilful and causes yet more problems for SLAB who are not in a position to outbid her on this I find it difficult to understand why she thinks the fastest growth in the EU since 2008 is just not good enough.
If I had complied with the law and were then to be accused of some unspecific wrongdoing on the basis of a Guardian article - a paper not noted for its accuracy, frankly - I'd be livid and would not let it rest, especially if I had the money to pay for lawyers.
Crimes rates seem a bit high perhaps we should introduce a system of constables through out the country to replace the parish watchmen and give them warrants to make arrests and uphold the Queen's peace, we could call them Peelers Coopers.
There is a myth that the worst thing that can happen to a country's finances is a debt Default. This is nonsense. The worst thing that can happen to a country;s finances is IMF Austerity and every example of history demonstrates that.
You are however correct in pointing to Iceland as another country which ignored IMF Austerity to "fix their economy" and bounced back quickly and strongly.
But that is a medium term question. My perspective was much more parochial and short term. In the short term there will be serious disruption in Greece and real economic hardship. The other members of the EZ have absolutely no incentive to prevent this, quite the reverse. If this does happen in the next couple of weeks my expectation is that the perception in the UK will be extremely negative, whatever the longer term benefits might be.
As far as I am aware one does not exist nor could one be invented.
Great. So now Ed Miliband is about to get himself sued. That's just what Labour needs.
I think in Labour minds being sued by a supposedly / allegedly 'dodgy' tory individual is just what they think they need - can they put it in line with taking on Murdoch and trying to play at being anti-the elite.
BTW over the period you mention NHS England spending went from around £75bn per annum to £120bn in 2012 prices. Again a pretty huge increase.
Damn, it is a revelation every time you look at just how much NuLabour overspent (for such minimal results). That's without even going near the Child Tax Credit obscenity and the utterly moronic decision to massively increase Pension benefits just as the Baby Boomers with gilt edge retirement funds were starting to change the profile of pensioners beyond all recognition.
Oh - and your mum smells of wee.
"If I had complied with the law and were then to be accused of some unspecific wrongdoing on the basis of a Guardian article - a paper not noted for its accuracy, frankly - I'd be livid and would not let it rest, especially if I had the money to pay for lawyers."
If Fink is foolish enough not to just keep quiet Miliband will issue several questions about his tax affairs which he'll be unprepared to answer. This is not about legality as Fink and Cameron know. It's about practices that the public will find unacceptable however lawful.
As it happens I have some shares in Man Group. They haven't done particularly well so don't expect shareholders to come to his aide
"We believe that the backbone of this country – small business owners, families and indeed the legal migrants who come here to better their lives – know that we no longer have a capitalism that works for all.
Instead, we have corporatism, lavishing attention on big corporations while ignoring the little man. Only Ukip will address and tackle this imbalance."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/nigel-farage/11406632/My-appeal-to-Britons-believe-in-Britain.html
"This latest report covers data up to and including 2012–13. The picture is strikingly different.
Average incomes have just begun to stabilise after falling sharply in the aftermath of
the Great Recession. Income inequality has fallen back to levels last seen one or two
decades ago, depending on the measure."
They went on to point out that this did not mean that the poor had not got worse off in absolute terms, merely that the general fall in incomes had reduced the relative poverty line. Since then a NMW increase ahead of average earnings will have reduced income inequality yet further.
In my view, however, the general perception is more accurate than these income figures because the wealthy have gained hugely more from capital appreciation of assets than the poor over the same period. This asset growth has been driven by policies such as very low interest rates and QE.
This is a major issue for our country but I remain to be convinced that a substantial increase in public spending funded by more borrowing is the answer.
Still, tanks on Ed's lawn is worth a few more former Labour voters.
Since we have all that extra money being spent, and since there is apparently no problem with increasing population, then it presumably follows that all that fuss about overstretched hospitals over Christmas, and the absurd waiting times some of my elderly relatives are having to get to see their GP, not to mention the almost two years it took for my mother to get her cataract operation must be a figment of my imagination.
I do hope Ed repeats what he said, he deserves being taken down a peg or two.
"As it happens I have some shares in Man Group."
As a man of honour, I fully expect you to sell them and give the proceeds to charity.
To keep the economy going and to pay wages etc the Government in that situation will have to issue its own fiat currency, the new Drachma or whatever. Greece will then have left the Euro.
They cannot remain a part of the Euro and default without the consent of all of the other members. At the moment that is not forthcoming.
1. Labour allowed unfettered immigration and population increased 9%
2. It needed to increase spending by at least 9% to keep things going.
3. It didn't therefore we should BAN IMMIGRATION AND KICK OUT THE DARKIES.
My point is that you are using a false premise to create a straw man argument against immigration (like all arguments against immigration). Immigrants don't cause problems to society. And even then, the argument is fundamentally flawed by being factually untrue.
There may be issues to society from some immigrants but no more so (and usually less so) than for native populations.
Yeah Labour fucked up, Labour are fuck ups, NuLabour spent like there was no tomorrow, fucked the country for generations to come and still won't accept the guilt. But that is a completely different debate.
And I love the throwaway attitude of "his shares made me no money, so fuck him." You heartless capitalist you....
"May I ask you a personal favour? I want copies of the presentations and handouts, so can you take all the handouts that are provided and send me them and the links to the presentations?"
I'll see what I can do.
Of course, some of us have said that Ed Miliband is an opportunistic little shit for a while.
Not to mention... the Euro is a freely traded international currency. No nation can actually be stopped from using it.
Threatening to be sued by a top conservative donor is precisely the fight he was looking for.
Spain seems far further from a positive outcome. Indeed Greece had also achieved fiscal surplus recently.
If they aren't able to print the money or if the rest of the eurozone refuse to acknowledge Greek euros are the same as mainstream euros, then it becomes the drachma under another name.
How is that arguing that immigrants cause problems to society?
Has to play it right, of course.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-31433736
A year in prison seems quite a strong punishment. Then again, she's a tantrum-throwing bitch.
Edited extra bit: and no agreement over Greece:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-31432471
"As a man of honour, I fully expect you to sell them and give the proceeds to charity"
Indeed I will give my entire profit on MAN Group to charity and even the dividends.
I'm surely not the only person on here who is scratching their heads as to why Jimmy Carr attracted so much opprobium (on here as well as anywhere) yet these much bigger fish are apparently doing nothing wrong with their lawful tax avoidance.
So if a country defaults it is saying that it will not pay back the money it has borrowed. In Greece's case a lot of this money has been borrowed from the ECB. They will not advance more money to Greece in such a scenario. As Greece cannot print its own Euros this gives it a major currency issue.
I had a discussion with Robert Smithson about the possibility of Greece using the Euro without being a member as such a couple of weeks ago. The problems are similar to Salmond's idiotic contention that Scotland could have continued to use the pound without a currency union with the rUK. Basically, it is possible but it requires a very basic and simple economy because the Banks and financial sector have no lender of last resort. It also makes further borrowing by the country highly problematic. Finally, it is dependent on there being enough Euros in Greece and staying in Greece. This means capital controls and a host of other problems.
We started with an agreement there are no good options and this is an alternative to issuing a new currency that is likely to depreciate fast but it would still mean that Greece was no longer a part of the Euro system.
Perhaps Ed would like to drop-kick a Buddhist monk next time he wants to stop looking irrelevant. Punch a nun. Strangle a kitten....
And of course nothing actually stopped them using some of the near doubling of public expenditure to build new social housing. Hell they could even have PFI'd it and kept it off the books.
Your argument is no better than Indigo's. You're criticising Labour's spending inefficiency and classifying it as an Immigration issue. It is not.
If so much uncertainty arises after the wave of bull propaganda from Tories about how the British economy is a land of sunshine, fluffy bunnies and skipping through meadows, people who believed that will start to ask some proper questions about the Tories' economic record.
And the house of cards will likely topple.
"KICK OUT THE DARKIES."
In Boston, there is concern from the locals about the large infux of Lithuanians affecting class sizes and the need for language provision. Not sure they can be defined as darkies, but I expect you know best.
In the longer term, I can't imagine him being particularly keen on being a defendant in a libel action while he's Prime Minister. But nor can I see him apologising to settle the libel action if he remains active in politics, because that would probably be a career-ending blow to his credibility.
From this, therefore, I infer that he is very doubtful whether he has much chance of becoming Prime Minister and his decision-making is currently predicated on maximising his short term chances. That's logical given the current state of British politics, but it's interesting to have some independent evidence of the point.
If Greece wants to play hardball all the way through a Grexit, default, Drachma, recovery, two fingers to you mate cycle - then that will:
1. Cause a huge run on banks not just in Greece. The garlic zone banking sector could go overnight if depositors lose confidence.
2. The creditor nations (mainly Germany) will face enormous Target 2 losses - with major political consequences.
3. The Euro will be confirmed as merely a hard exchange rate peg and not a full currency union. The politics of integration will be destroyed.
4. The myth that you can't leave will be bust
5. The deflation debt trap of the GIPSIs will accelerate, Italy or Portugal up next.
6. Recession / depression locked in.
The whole Euro construct and the appalling damage it is doing to the debtor nations is bullshit. And it looks like Greece is prepared to call bullshit on it. We may be on the verge of a historically bad mistake coming undone.
They're pretending that a Grexit is not going to kill the Euro - but living in terror that that is precisely what it will do. The stock market is not yet reflecting reality - but the FX markets are starting to.
However, back on topic. You confirm that there is no mechanism. Because, as you say, it was inconceivable. Do you think Spain or Italy or Portugal or Lithuania will accept treaty change to bring in an Ejection Mechanism when they will then face that possibility themselves in the near future?
No, they will Veto it because treaty change is a Veto-able matter and not covered by the majority rules.
"Threatening to be sued by a top conservative donor is precisely the fight he was looking for."
And Ed knows it can never happen. Unless Fink wants the whole world to see him stripped naked in court including details of the third of his income which APPARANTLY goes to charity. I wouldn't for instance include £3,000,000 to the Tory Party as 'charity'.
But obviously he will so will anyone be impressed that someone with an income of £9,000,000 gives a third to the Tories?
.
That sorts the blame, I predict, but the answer as to who has the best credentials for handling the economy and navigating choppy waters will be key. It could be an opportunity for Labour. Although the Conservatives lead on economic matters generally, they have an economic lead to lose and the reds have a deficit [ahem] to narrow.
It could be bad for the SNP. If the eurozone is undergoing a tsunami of woe, there could be a two party squeeze as people shun the idea of a coalition and weeks/months of coalition negotiation whilst the continent sinks beneath the waves. I think it'd have to be pretty economically awful for that to happen, but it's a possibility.
norman smith@BBCNormanS·33 mins33 minutes ago
Ed Miliband stood up to banks, the energy companies, Rupert Murdoch - and will certainly stand up to Lord Fink - Tristram Hunt @BBCr4today
http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201415/cmhansrd/cm150211/debtext/150211-0001.htm#column_759
Edited Hansard URL.
Edited extra bit: this might be a bit over-cautious on my part. I'm just wary of landing Mr. Smithson with legal troubles needlessly.
I am not a kipper, but even my vague understanding of their policies notes that they are not proposing either banning immigration or kicking people out, in fact they are proposing the same system as those well known fascist states Australia and Canada, where people are admitted based on their utility to the country, rather that because they are (predominantly) white Europeans.
YG Poll, for the second day running, Labour has seen improved results in the Scottish subsample.
Tax: Newsnight yesterday showed that it does not know the difference between tax avoidance and tax evasion. However as said upthread, most people do not like it even though it is legal. However, cash in hand which is undeclared is illegal and many would be guilty of that whether the giver or receiver.
The best way to shut EdM up is to go on and on about his family's IT avoidance and the Guardian's avoidance, and Ms Hodge's related avoidance and any avoidance by any political donor. Also Sir P Green's related avoidance and similar examples - ALL OF WHICH ARE LEGAL (caps for avoidance of doubt by any potential litigants).
It seems again that politicians do not realise that a growing combination of globalisation and new technology will continue to eliminate jobs as understood today. Trains and cars will become driverless - so eliminating the need for taxidrivers etc. Gene replacement technology will replace the NHS as we know it. etc etc.
Why cannot people just open their eyes or have we bred a mainly brain-dead society?
As a general remark though, publicly to call someone 'dodgy' in relation to tax would be libellous.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2846756/Influx-migrants-raises-standards-schools-says-Tory-Education-minister-believes-ability-speak-two-languages-makes-pupils-academic.html
It's also probably quite wrong of me to use Reductio Ad Absurdam while criticising logical fallacies.
I'm thinking, specifically, here about a situation in which Ed Miliband uses weasel words to avoid either retracting or confirming outside the House. Lord Fink (...surely a name rejected by satire writers as too far-fetched) rather than suing, publicly brands him a liar (based on his Parliamentary utterance), and effectively dares Ed to sue *him*. Assuming that EM has indeed misrepresented the actualite in the House, can this be used as a defence against a defamation/libel suit?
1. Does he know he's lost and is shoring up core support?
or
2. Does he think business-bashing will win over 'ordinaries'?
I don't think it can be 1. 'cos Miliband's not humble enough to think he'll lose so it must be 2.
It's never worked since Thatcher. It really is an amazing throwback. Miliband is pushing a lot of left-wing buttons.
I can't see the strategy paying off. He's getting air time, but attacking business now on top of the mainstream media and middle classes? I don't think most people are going to be swayed by that line.
As for the Fink issue. I'm not sure it's so much about whether or not he is sued. It's more about the judgement of a leader who smears someone when he has no proof, doing it in a cowardly way under parliamentary privilege and with intemperate not to say hot-headed language. It has left a nasty smell.
(David L that Telegraph piece you quoted below was on the money I think.)
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-3143146
Farage to make major speech today.
Without having a lawyer proof it, probably safer to leave well alone.
There is just no need to try any sort of tax avoidance scheme because with that income and the sort of lifestyle he lives he'd never get through the money he earns anyway.
That someone with a capital of £180,000,000 would use any system to reduce tax would show a serious character flaw and if Cameron appointed such a person to his inner circle he'd be insane
Nigel Farage's appeal to Britons: believe in Britain
Ahead of the general election, Ukip leader Nigel Farage sets out his party's vision
Just seen Dair's comment - agreed!
"And that concern is misplaced."
A subjective view but a polite one. A major reason for the rise of Ukip there has been the response from some to the issues raised.
I don't live there anymore but the immigrants are white, Catholic, young and hard-working.
They do have a tendency to drink a lot and this can be troublesome. But a lot have arrived in a very short time, and being young, they have children who need school places and often language provision.
When these concerns are raised, the default response is often "racist bigot." A recipe for Kipperdom recruitment.
On that basis, Ed Miliband should have nothing to do with Ed Miliband and should sack himself.
It's all of a piece with Dave and George's ridiculous "we're all in this together" meme, which ordinary "hard working people" find it impossible to accept.
Can Miliband sit in an interview and simply say - "I stand by everything I said in Parliament and will not retract any of it" ?
Does this count as libel or does he actually have to repeat the accusations for a case to be made against him?
Of no consequence, just for my own interest.
Tony Blair himself apparently likes a bit of tax optimisation
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2083827/The-12m-tax-mystery-Tony-Blairs-earnings-soar-42--pays-315-000-HMRC.html
If they win 33%, they're in with a chance of forming a minority government, unless the Conservatives can reach 35-36%.
Only if they fall below 32% do their chances really fade.
http://bit.ly/16WMdln