politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ahead of what Ipsos-MORI is describing as a “corker” of a p
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Please can you avoid that form of personal attack suggesting that someone is motivated by spite.TheWatcher said:
We should feel sorry for the Roger, a wealthy man driven by spite as the price of his shares haven't risen by as much as he hoped, failing to enrich him even further.Cyclefree said:
Two points:-Roger said:Cyclefree
"If I had complied with the law and were then to be accused of some unspecific wrongdoing on the basis of a Guardian article - a paper not noted for its accuracy, frankly - I'd be livid and would not let it rest, especially if I had the money to pay for lawyers."
If Fink is foolish enough not to just keep quiet Miliband will issue several questions about his tax affairs which he'll be unprepared to answer. This is not about legality as Fink and Cameron know. It's about practices that the public will find unacceptable however lawful.
As it happens I have some shares in Man Group. They haven't done particularly well so don't expect shareholders to come to his aide
1. You seem very sure that Fink will be unprepared to answer questions. How do you know this?
2. A libel suit - if that's what results - is very much about what is legal. If Milliband makes allegations which are unsubstantiated and found by a court of law to be libellous, that is to my mind pretty unacceptable. I expect a Prime Minister and a Leader of the Opposition to uphold the rule of law not undermine it. I expect I'm not alone in having that view.
A candidate for Prime Minister should have integrity. Libelling someone - if that is the case - is not the mark of someone with integrity.
Shareholders would only be concerned if allegations were made against the company.
Lots of "ifs" there of course. So let's see.
It's funny that his portfolio holds stocks in the very financial institutions he claims to despise, such as MAN and Barclays.
We will be clamping down on comments like that in the run up to May.
I want to keep the site civlised.
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There is an alternative explanation, of course, which is that he's a fool and hasn't thought it through.antifrank said:So far as the libel threat is concerned, if Ed Miliband repeats his comments outside Parliament and if Lord Fink sues him for libel, it may well work fine for Ed Miliband in the short term.
In the longer term, I can't imagine him being particularly keen on being a defendant in a libel action while he's Prime Minister. But nor can I see him apologising to settle the libel action if he remains active in politics, because that would probably be a career-ending blow to his credibility.
From this, therefore, I infer that he is very doubtful whether he has much chance of becoming Prime Minister and his decision-making is currently predicated on maximising his short term chances. That's logical given the current state of British politics, but it's interesting to have some independent evidence of the point.
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Interesting...Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Pulpstar, I'd say yes. I've received a couple of those, and this must be a battleground seat.
It seems to confirm that list being as you're in Morley & Outwood and I'm in NE Derbyshire. Not two seats I'd have at the top of the target list.
Personally I think the Conservatives are battling for 2nd place in both.
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David, I fully agree on the last point, I can see some targeted infrastructure improvements being good value and helping but not the £180B number mentioned yesterday , that seems madness. We really need to get government out of people's business , let them keep their own money and pay for services they want rather than taking a fortune off them and providing lots of crap that politicians think are good.DavidL said:
Malcolm, that is a rather different point and one with which I am not unsympathetic. Although income inequality has actually fallen over the last few years this is not the general perception. In the IFS report in July they stated:malcolmg said:
David, thanks for that. She sees it as just not good enough due to the fact that only a handful at the top are getting the benefits of the growth, the majority are worse off and paying for it. Pretending that people on zero hour contracts is great while we have wall to wall that the top few percent own almost everything , a few families have more than 20 million people etc. So whilst the top echelon like yourself may think life is rosy , the majority of people are scrabbling ever harder just to survive and until the Tories grasp this fact and try to make at least a token effort on making the UK a fairer country they will remain hated and reviled by the majority. The Tories are never going to win this election given they are alienating the majority of the public daily.DavidL said:
.malcolmg said:
.DavidL said:Apologies for being not so much off topic but relying on the somewhat flimsy peg of "events" so soon but today's Alex is in my opinion spot on: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/alex/
If Greece does end up falling out of the Euro in the next couple of weeks there will, I think, be several major consequences most of which will probably be good for the tories
"This latest report covers data up to and including 2012–13. The picture is strikingly different.
This is a major issue for our country but I remain to be convinced that a substantial increase in public spending funded by more borrowing is the answer.0 -
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you don't think adding a population equivalent of 10 Chelmsfords EVERY year will have an impact on NHS / schooling etc?murali_s said:
Off go the PB Burleys on immigration again.MarqueeMark said:I see Ed Is talking about infant class size caps today. Funny how he has come round to seeing this is an issue on the Coalition's watch, and obviously has nothing to do with a massive rise in immigration under the last Govt.which made no provision for commensurate rises in the needs for education, health and housing.
The man is such a tool.
LOL
No? thats ok, neither did Labour - Everyone else could see it though.
When I moved to Colchester every school was full. My son has a Statement, schools have to take him and yet most were refusing to return our calls - that's how full they are.
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welcome back to the Light side malc :-)malcolmg said:
David, I fully agree on the last point, I can see some targeted infrastructure improvements being good value and helping but not the £180B number mentioned yesterday , that seems madness. We really need to get government out of people's business , let them keep their own money and pay for services they want rather than taking a fortune off them and providing lots of crap that politicians think are good.DavidL said:
Malcolm, that is a rather different point and one with which I am not unsympathetic. Although income inequality has actually fallen over the last few years this is not the general perception. In the IFS report in July they stated:malcolmg said:
David, thanks for that. She sees it as just not good enough due to the fact that only a handful at the top are getting the benefits of the growth, the majority are worse off and paying for it. Pretending that people on zero hour contracts is great while we have wall to wall that the top few percent own almost everything , a few families have more than 20 million people etc. So whilst the top echelon like yourself may think life is rosy , the majority of people are scrabbling ever harder just to survive and until the Tories grasp this fact and try to make at least a token effort on making the UK a fairer country they will remain hated and reviled by the majority. The Tories are never going to win this election given they are alienating the majority of the public daily.DavidL said:
.malcolmg said:
.DavidL said:Apologies for being not so much off topic but relying on the somewhat flimsy peg of "events" so soon but today's Alex is in my opinion spot on: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/alex/
If Greece does end up falling out of the Euro in the next couple of weeks there will, I think, be several major consequences most of which will probably be good for the tories
"This latest report covers data up to and including 2012–13. The picture is strikingly different.
This is a major issue for our country but I remain to be convinced that a substantial increase in public spending funded by more borrowing is the answer.
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Mr. Pulpstar, whilst I agree a blue gain here is unlikely, if they lose second (which they hold by a distance ahead of the Lib Dems) that would be a poor result.0
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@CCHQPress: Sounds like Miliband is performing a climbdown from yesterday's huge error of judgement. Shows just how weak he is: https://t.co/qBCARSnZiy0
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I have got that literature as well in hornchurch and upminster which wasn't on the list I think? Dame angela Watkinson looking about 30 years younger than she is at the top!Pulpstar said:
Interesting...Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Pulpstar, I'd say yes. I've received a couple of those, and this must be a battleground seat.
It seems to confirm that list being as you're in Morley & Outwood and I'm in NE Derbyshire. Not two seats I'd have at the top of the target list.
Personally I think the Conservatives are battling for 2nd place in both.0 -
Lib Dems will be lucky to keep their deposits here !Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Pulpstar, whilst I agree a blue gain here is unlikely, if they lose second (which they hold by a distance ahead of the Lib Dems) that would be a poor result.
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@Peston: Governor says inflation probably to turn negative in spring0
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Not at all. It will be the choice of voters. Voters will have to live with their choice. If they don't want a continuation of the good government we've had since 2010, then that's up to them.Sean_F said:If the Conservatives fail to win sufficient votes to stop Milliband, the fault is theirs and theirs alone.
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Always good to get the news from a neutral source, keep up the good workScott_P said:@CCHQPress: Sounds like Miliband is performing a climbdown from yesterday's huge error of judgement. Shows just how weak he is: https://t.co/qBCARSnZiy
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Keep going Richard, you'll put yet more people off voting Conservative.Richard_Nabavi said:
Not at all. It will be the choice of voters. Voters will have to live with their choice. If they don't want a continuation of the good government we've had since 2010, then that's up to them.Sean_F said:If the Conservatives fail to win sufficient votes to stop Milliband, the fault is theirs and theirs alone.
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The monthly "Monitor" is what MORI call their poll.Pulpstar said:Don't forget this is the "Monitor" not the actual poll so it could be that most people think the Conservatives will win...
The headline numbers are those certain to vote. Unlike all other pollsters MORI ask the certainty question after voting intention which many think is the wrong way round - particularly as they have such a drastic filter.
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Robert Peston @Peston 5m5 minutes agoTheScreamingEagles said:@Peston: Governor says inflation probably to turn negative in spring
Bank of England forecasts sharpest increase for decade this year in real take home pay0 -
Eastleigh: LibDems 40 councillors, Tories 4. Ukip zero, Labour zero, others zero.Pulpstar said:
Almost into UKIP gain Eastleigh sort of realms.marty said:No particular detail on the Ipsos MORI survey but on Nick Cleggs LBC show this morning Nick Ferrari told him the LDs were down to only 6 per cent on the latest MORI poll for the Standard. So I assume LBC/Ferrari have the poll results on embargo - and he said this by mistake?! Cos the last MORI poll had the LDs on 8 per cent.
6 per cent on MORI for the LDs - is very poor.0 -
Conservatives playing quite a wide ground game it seems then.0
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What time will we hear Miliband's pathetic climbdown/brave statement/idiotic utterances?0
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Oh right !MikeSmithson said:
The monthly "Monitor" is what MORI call their poll.Pulpstar said:Don't forget this is the "Monitor" not the actual poll so it could be that most people think the Conservatives will win...
The headline numbers are those certain to vote. Unlike all other pollsters MORI ask the certainty question after voting intention which many think is the wrong way round - particularly as they have such a drastic filter.
Do Mori only use the 10/10s ?0 -
It is almost like they have money to burn.Pulpstar said:Conservatives playing quite a wide ground game it seems then.
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So do we think the upshot of today's MORI will be EMWNBPM or EICIPM?0
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If the UK expat workers were born in the UK they would still be tax domiciled in the UK. It is, in fact, very difficult to lose the domicile for tax purposes of the country where you were born.Roger said:Indigo
"What about most British ex-pats ? They are almost all "not resident" and "not ordinarily resident" in the UK, have foreign bank accounts, and pay their taxes in the country in which they are currently living, does that make them tax avoiders ?"
I think that's fine. They are not domiciled in the UK and therefore I wouldn't exect them to be large donors let alone have an official position with one or other of our political parties. Generally you pay tax where you live. It makes sense.
As for your last comment that is absolutely true - which is why it was so daft of Labour to accuse the boss of Boots of not paying tax in a country in which he did not live.
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The latter.GIN1138 said:So do with think the upshot of today's MORI will be EMWNBPM or EICIPM?
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Great speeches are normally created through the merger of a great national event and a great HoC's performer.OldKingCole said:Mr W; Is it simply the law of averages that we've not had a great (or even, IIRC a really good) speech in the HoC for over 10 years?
Or don't we have the Members who can do it any longer?
In fairness over the past ten years it's difficult to recall such a conflation.
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We're not under campaign rules now are we ? (Yet?)TheScreamingEagles said:
It is almost like they have money to burn.Pulpstar said:Conservatives playing quite a wide ground game it seems then.
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Well they've been burning ours for the last 5 years so they probably don't know when to stop.TheScreamingEagles said:
It is almost like they have money to burn.Pulpstar said:Conservatives playing quite a wide ground game it seems then.
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O_O !!!TheScreamingEagles said:
The latter.GIN1138 said:So do with think the upshot of today's MORI will be EMWNBPM or EICIPM?
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The long campaign started in December. Short campaign begins end of MarchPulpstar said:
We're not under campaign rules now are we ? (Yet?)TheScreamingEagles said:
It is almost like they have money to burn.Pulpstar said:Conservatives playing quite a wide ground game it seems then.
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Pork banned from all primary school menus in Islington http://t.co/NUPc5vtu8d pic.twitter.com/l1bXPhXkj9
— Evening Standard (@standardnews) February 12, 20150 -
Yup, a few good one-liners and that's about it!JackW said:
Great speeches are normally created through the merger of a great national event and a great HoC's performer.OldKingCole said:Mr W; Is it simply the law of averages that we've not had a great (or even, IIRC a really good) speech in the HoC for over 10 years?
Or don't we have the Members who can do it any longer?
In fairness over the past ten years it's difficult to recall such a conflation.
Possibly, although I'm not counting on it, we'll get something over an EU referendum.0 -
I strongly suspect that few on here will think this poll "a corker". It's a hell of a tough crowd...
Although if the LibDems really are on 6% with less than 3 months to go - we might finally have to start seriously considering that Martin Day (late of this parish) was a man ahead of his time....0 -
Cameron's response to the Bloody Sunday report was quite good.JackW said:
Great speeches are normally created through the merger of a great national event and a great HoC's performer.OldKingCole said:Mr W; Is it simply the law of averages that we've not had a great (or even, IIRC a really good) speech in the HoC for over 10 years?
Or don't we have the Members who can do it any longer?
In fairness over the past ten years it's difficult to recall such a conflation.
Robin Cook's resignation speech was excellent as well.
And I suppose Blair's speech when he had to get Parliament to agree to go to war with Iraq was very memorable if only for what an utterly convincing actor (liar?) he was...
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You should watch her deliver it online (link on Wings). It's even more impressive, she knows how to hold a room, especially given its an unvetted room with open questions afterwards.Richard_Nabavi said:Morning all. A couple of vaguely on-topic things:
1) Has everyone seen this article?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-31066643
"Three of the UK's most experienced election-watchers have predicted the Tories will do much better than expected in next May's general election but they still expect another hung parliament. "
2) I've been reading Nicola Sturgeon's speech of yesterday:
http://scottishgovernment.presscentre.com/Content/Detail.aspx?ReleaseID=5604&NewsAreaID=139&ClientID=1
Regular readers won't be surprised that I don't entirely agree with her, but what struck me most was how impressive the speech was. It's coherent, well-argued, and engages with the issues rather than squirting random smears around,. Above all it reads like a serious politician who's actually thought about the options and has genuinely considered the implications of various options.
I rather think that, if Ed Miliband had given this speech at the Labour conference last October, with minor modifications to the Scotland-specific references, and followed through with policy development based on it, Labour would be cruising towards a majority.0 -
I don't rule that one out. He only had the information for an hour before Prime Minister's Questions. It is possible that he got carried away.Richard_Nabavi said:
There is an alternative explanation, of course, which is that he's a fool and hasn't thought it through.antifrank said:So far as the libel threat is concerned, if Ed Miliband repeats his comments outside Parliament and if Lord Fink sues him for libel, it may well work fine for Ed Miliband in the short term.
In the longer term, I can't imagine him being particularly keen on being a defendant in a libel action while he's Prime Minister. But nor can I see him apologising to settle the libel action if he remains active in politics, because that would probably be a career-ending blow to his credibility.
From this, therefore, I infer that he is very doubtful whether he has much chance of becoming Prime Minister and his decision-making is currently predicated on maximising his short term chances. That's logical given the current state of British politics, but it's interesting to have some independent evidence of the point.
On balance, however, I will credit him with some intelligence.0 -
Then please delete the comment Mike.MikeSmithson said:
Please can you avoid that form of personal attack suggesting that someone is motivated by spite.TheWatcher said:
We should feel sorry for the Roger...Cyclefree said:
Two points:-Roger said:Cyclefree
"If I had complied with the law and were then to be accused of some unspecific wrongdoing on the basis of a Guardian article - a paper not noted for its accuracy, frankly - I'd be livid and would not let it rest, especially if I had the money to pay for lawyers."
If Fink is foolish enough not to just keep quiet Miliband will issue several questions about his tax affairs which he'll be unprepared to answer. This is not about legality as Fink and Cameron know. It's about practices that the public will find unacceptable however lawful.
As it happens I have some shares in Man Group. They haven't done particularly well so don't expect shareholders to come to his aide
1. You seem very sure that Fink will be unprepared to answer questions. How do you know this?
2. A libel suit - if that's what results - is very much about what is legal. If Milliband makes allegations which are unsubstantiated and found by a court of law to be libellous, that is to my mind pretty unacceptable. I expect a Prime Minister and a Leader of the Opposition to uphold the rule of law not undermine it. I expect I'm not alone in having that view.
A candidate for Prime Minister should have integrity. Libelling someone - if that is the case - is not the mark of someone with integrity.
Shareholders would only be concerned if allegations were made against the company.
Lots of "ifs" there of course. So let's see.
We will be clamping down on comments like that in the run up to May.
I want to keep the site civlised.
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They issue two sets of numbers but its the 10/10 that are given most prominence.Pulpstar said:
Oh right !MikeSmithson said:
The monthly "Monitor" is what MORI call their poll.Pulpstar said:Don't forget this is the "Monitor" not the actual poll so it could be that most people think the Conservatives will win...
The headline numbers are those certain to vote. Unlike all other pollsters MORI ask the certainty question after voting intention which many think is the wrong way round - particularly as they have such a drastic filter.
Do Mori only use the 10/10s ?
Their final poll of the marginals in 2010 would have been almost spot on if they'd gone with all giving a voting intention. In the marginals the campaigns aim to ensure that the most marginals voter vote.
One other problem with 10/10 certainty is that often women are less likely to commit than men meaning that polling outputs are male heavy.
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Due at noonMorris_Dancer said:What time will we hear Miliband's pathetic climbdown/brave statement/idiotic utterances?
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David Stanley @davidericstan Feb 10
An Army Veteran’s View on UKIP Military Policy http://ln.is/org.uk/Vka3E0 -
MikeK said:
Pork banned from all primary school menus in Islington http://t.co/NUPc5vtu8d pic.twitter.com/l1bXPhXkj9
— Evening Standard (@standardnews) February 12, 2015
What has Mick done now to get himself banned from some place else?
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I've taken £5 of Labour Majority at 19.0, don't really believe it'll happen with Scotland and all but must be value.0
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MikeK said:
Pork banned from all primary school menus in Islington http://t.co/NUPc5vtu8d pic.twitter.com/l1bXPhXkj9
— Evening Standard (@standardnews) February 12, 2015
Poor Mick Pork can't get a hearing anywhere.
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Does anyone remember the Tory 2010 election campaign launch at Battersea Power Station?
Was that deemed a success or failure?0 -
Mr. P, cheers.0
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Ah this is the Eltham cadidate... I have backed ukip at 25/1 her... he is a nice guy and I think quite an impressive speaker... A good candidate I reckon, Will see at 12ish whether I'm right!MikeK said:UKIP @UKIP 1m1 minute ago
Tune into @daily_politics at midday to see @prwhittle #bbcdp0 -
I'm not sure why it hasn't been published yet, I thought the Standard hit the streets well before lunchtime.MarqueeMark said:I strongly suspect that few on here will think this poll "a corker". It's a hell of a tough crowd...
Although if the LibDems really are on 6% with less than 3 months to go - we might finally have to start seriously considering that Martin Day (late of this parish) was a man ahead of his time....
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I thought that Brown's response to the death of Cameron's son was impressive as well.GIN1138 said:
Cameron's response to the Bloody Sunday report was quite good.JackW said:
Great speeches are normally created through the merger of a great national event and a great HoC's performer.OldKingCole said:Mr W; Is it simply the law of averages that we've not had a great (or even, IIRC a really good) speech in the HoC for over 10 years?
Or don't we have the Members who can do it any longer?
In fairness over the past ten years it's difficult to recall such a conflation.
Robin Cook's resignation speech was excellent as well.
And I suppose Blair's speech when he had to get Parliament to agree to go to war with Iraq was very memorable if only for what an utterly convincing actor (liar?) he was...
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Watch the speech. She isn't promising £180bn of new spending. She is promising about £3bn per annum on top of today's level, working out at £180bn over what the Conservative spending plans are over the 5 years of the next parliament.malcolmg said:
David, I fully agree on the last point, I can see some targeted infrastructure improvements being good value and helping but not the £180B number mentioned yesterday , that seems madness. We really need to get government out of people's business , let them keep their own money and pay for services they want rather than taking a fortune off them and providing lots of crap that politicians think are good.DavidL said:
Malcolm, that is a rather different point and one with which I am not unsympathetic. Although income inequality has actually fallen over the last few years this is not the general perception. In the IFS report in July they stated:malcolmg said:
David, thanks for that. She sees it as just not good enough due to the fact that only a handful at the top are getting the benefits of the growth, the majority are worse off and paying for it. Pretending that people on zero hour contracts is great while we have wall to wall that the top few percent own almost everything , a few families have more than 20 million people etc. So whilst the top echelon like yourself may think life is rosy , the majority of people are scrabbling ever harder just to survive and until the Tories grasp this fact and try to make at least a token effort on making the UK a fairer country they will remain hated and reviled by the majority. The Tories are never going to win this election given they are alienating the majority of the public daily.DavidL said:
.malcolmg said:
.DavidL said:Apologies for being not so much off topic but relying on the somewhat flimsy peg of "events" so soon but today's Alex is in my opinion spot on: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/alex/
If Greece does end up falling out of the Euro in the next couple of weeks there will, I think, be several major consequences most of which will probably be good for the tories
"This latest report covers data up to and including 2012–13. The picture is strikingly different.
This is a major issue for our country but I remain to be convinced that a substantial increase in public spending funded by more borrowing is the answer.0 -
None IMHO fall into the "great" category.GIN1138 said:
Cameron's response to the Bloody Sunday report was quite good.JackW said:
Great speeches are normally created through the merger of a great national event and a great HoC's performer.OldKingCole said:Mr W; Is it simply the law of averages that we've not had a great (or even, IIRC a really good) speech in the HoC for over 10 years?
Or don't we have the Members who can do it any longer?
In fairness over the past ten years it's difficult to recall such a conflation.
Robin Cook's resignation speech was excellent as well.
And I suppose Blair's speech when he had to get Parliament to agree to go to war with Iraq was very memorable if only for what an utterly convincing actor (liar?) he was...
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It was terrible. Why do you ask?BenM said:Does anyone remember the Tory 2010 election campaign launch at Battersea Power Station?
Was that deemed a success or failure?0 -
There has been a great national event: the great financial crisis that began with the run on Northern Rock, and continues to this day with a government deficit still around £100bn. That we haven't had a politician rise to the occasion in the House during this period is perhaps one reason why the electorate is so restless and dissatisfied.JackW said:
Great speeches are normally created through the merger of a great national event and a great HoC's performer.OldKingCole said:Mr W; Is it simply the law of averages that we've not had a great (or even, IIRC a really good) speech in the HoC for over 10 years?
Or don't we have the Members who can do it any longer?
In fairness over the past ten years it's difficult to recall such a conflation.
I think the most memorable words in Parliament over this period were Cable's joke about Brown transforming from Stalin to Mr Bean. You can't inspire a country with jokes, or trite slogans ("too far too fast", "long term economic plan", "chaos or confusioncompetence", etc)0 -
Richard_Nabavi said:
There is an alternative explanation, of course, which is that he's a fool and hasn't thought it through.antifrank said:So far as the libel threat is concerned, if Ed Miliband repeats his comments outside Parliament and if Lord Fink sues him for libel, it may well work fine for Ed Miliband in the short term.
In the longer term, I can't imagine him being particularly keen on being a defendant in a libel action while he's Prime Minister. But nor can I see him apologising to settle the libel action if he remains active in politics, because that would probably be a career-ending blow to his credibility.
From this, therefore, I infer that he is very doubtful whether he has much chance of becoming Prime Minister and his decision-making is currently predicated on maximising his short term chances. That's logical given the current state of British politics, but it's interesting to have some independent evidence of the point.
I think your explanation is highly plausible.
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I'm not sure why the claim might be defamatory, surely he only mentioned tax avoidance which is entirely legal.antifrank said:
I don't rule that one out. He only had the information for an hour before Prime Minister's Questions. It is possible that he got carried away.Richard_Nabavi said:
There is an alternative explanation, of course, which is that he's a fool and hasn't thought it through.antifrank said:So far as the libel threat is concerned, if Ed Miliband repeats his comments outside Parliament and if Lord Fink sues him for libel, it may well work fine for Ed Miliband in the short term.
In the longer term, I can't imagine him being particularly keen on being a defendant in a libel action while he's Prime Minister. But nor can I see him apologising to settle the libel action if he remains active in politics, because that would probably be a career-ending blow to his credibility.
From this, therefore, I infer that he is very doubtful whether he has much chance of becoming Prime Minister and his decision-making is currently predicated on maximising his short term chances. That's logical given the current state of British politics, but it's interesting to have some independent evidence of the point.
On balance, however, I will credit him with some intelligence.
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I think this is an excellent speech:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pacQx9e8oAs
UKIP wouldn't be on 16% if this man was in charge of the Conservatives, thats for sure !!0 -
Perhaps because I've been reminiscing about the day when the Tories were on 52% with MORI and then blew it on the run up to the election!Richard_Nabavi said:
It was terrible. Why do you ask?BenM said:Does anyone remember the Tory 2010 election campaign launch at Battersea Power Station?
Was that deemed a success or failure?
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It's what the overall statement inferred, indirectly linking the 'd' word with a named individual.JohnLilburne said:
I'm not sure why the claim might be defamatory, surely he only mentioned tax avoidance which is entirely legal.antifrank said:
I don't rule that one out. He only had the information for an hour before Prime Minister's Questions. It is possible that he got carried away.Richard_Nabavi said:
There is an alternative explanation, of course, which is that he's a fool and hasn't thought it through.antifrank said:So far as the libel threat is concerned, if Ed Miliband repeats his comments outside Parliament and if Lord Fink sues him for libel, it may well work fine for Ed Miliband in the short term.
In the longer term, I can't imagine him being particularly keen on being a defendant in a libel action while he's Prime Minister. But nor can I see him apologising to settle the libel action if he remains active in politics, because that would probably be a career-ending blow to his credibility.
From this, therefore, I infer that he is very doubtful whether he has much chance of becoming Prime Minister and his decision-making is currently predicated on maximising his short term chances. That's logical given the current state of British politics, but it's interesting to have some independent evidence of the point.
On balance, however, I will credit him with some intelligence.0 -
Nasty anti islamic channel 4
Media Guido (@MediaGuido)
12/02/2015 10:52
Cathy Newman Apologises Over Islamic Centre Claims order-order.com/2015/02/12/cat… pic.twitter.com/sS8fbZB1nX
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Accusing people of things which are entirely legal can be defamatory (and indeed I expect that the majority of libel suits turn on accusations of acts that were perfectly legal). A woman once won a libel action because someone alleged that she had been raped. Jason Donovan successfully sued for libel because it was suggested that he was gay.JohnLilburne said:
I'm not sure why the claim might be defamatory, surely he only mentioned tax avoidance which is entirely legal.antifrank said:
I don't rule that one out. He only had the information for an hour before Prime Minister's Questions. It is possible that he got carried away.Richard_Nabavi said:
There is an alternative explanation, of course, which is that he's a fool and hasn't thought it through.antifrank said:So far as the libel threat is concerned, if Ed Miliband repeats his comments outside Parliament and if Lord Fink sues him for libel, it may well work fine for Ed Miliband in the short term.
In the longer term, I can't imagine him being particularly keen on being a defendant in a libel action while he's Prime Minister. But nor can I see him apologising to settle the libel action if he remains active in politics, because that would probably be a career-ending blow to his credibility.
From this, therefore, I infer that he is very doubtful whether he has much chance of becoming Prime Minister and his decision-making is currently predicated on maximising his short term chances. That's logical given the current state of British politics, but it's interesting to have some independent evidence of the point.
On balance, however, I will credit him with some intelligence.
The test is not whether the allegation is that someone acted illegally, but whether the allegation would cause others to think less of them or to damage their reputation.0 -
Is there even 180 billion worth of projects that are sufficiently good value for money to invest in?malcolmg said:
David, I fully agree on the last point, I can see some targeted infrastructure improvements being good value and helping but not the £180B number mentioned yesterday , that seems madness. We really need to get government out of people's business , let them keep their own money and pay for services they want rather than taking a fortune off them and providing lots of crap that politicians think are good.DavidL said:
Malcolm, that is a rather different point and one with which I am not unsympathetic. Although income inequality has actually fallen over the last few years this is not the general perception. In the IFS report in July they stated:malcolmg said:
David, thanks for that. She sees it as just not good enough due to the fact that only a handful at the top are getting the benefits of the growth, the majority are worse off and paying for it. Pretending that people on zero hour contracts is great while we have wall to wall that the top few percent own almost everything , a few families have more than 20 million people etc. So whilst the top echelon like yourself may think life is rosy , the majority of people are scrabbling ever harder just to survive and until the Tories grasp this fact and try to make at least a token effort on making the UK a fairer country they will remain hated and reviled by the majority. The Tories are never going to win this election given they are alienating the majority of the public daily.DavidL said:
.malcolmg said:
.DavidL said:Apologies for being not so much off topic but relying on the somewhat flimsy peg of "events" so soon but today's Alex is in my opinion spot on: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/alex/
If Greece does end up falling out of the Euro in the next couple of weeks there will, I think, be several major consequences most of which will probably be good for the tories
"This latest report covers data up to and including 2012–13. The picture is strikingly different.
This is a major issue for our country but I remain to be convinced that a substantial increase in public spending funded by more borrowing is the answer.
You might be better off spending some of that on tax cuts to raise domestic consumption0 -
What's Dan doing as an MEP btw - he's completely wasted in there.0
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That doesn't appear to be Labour's view. From what one can judge doing something lawful can, depending on who you ask, the state of the weather, which party you support, etc be "dodgy".JohnLilburne said:
I'm not sure why the claim might be defamatory, surely he only mentioned tax avoidance which is entirely legal.antifrank said:
I don't rule that one out. He only had the information for an hour before Prime Minister's Questions. It is possible that he got carried away.Richard_Nabavi said:
There is an alternative explanation, of course, which is that he's a fool and hasn't thought it through.antifrank said:So far as the libel threat is concerned, if Ed Miliband repeats his comments outside Parliament and if Lord Fink sues him for libel, it may well work fine for Ed Miliband in the short term.
In the longer term, I can't imagine him being particularly keen on being a defendant in a libel action while he's Prime Minister. But nor can I see him apologising to settle the libel action if he remains active in politics, because that would probably be a career-ending blow to his credibility.
From this, therefore, I infer that he is very doubtful whether he has much chance of becoming Prime Minister and his decision-making is currently predicated on maximising his short term chances. That's logical given the current state of British politics, but it's interesting to have some independent evidence of the point.
On balance, however, I will credit him with some intelligence.
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Weird story all round.isam said:Nasty anti islamic channel 4
Media Guido (@MediaGuido)
12/02/2015 10:52
Cathy Newman Apologises Over Islamic Centre Claims order-order.com/2015/02/12/cat… pic.twitter.com/sS8fbZB1nX0 -
I would have thought that his reputation would actually be damaged if it was said he hadn't engaged in tax avoidance and had paid more tax than he needed to. Surely tax avoidance itself should be deemed a neutral phrase.antifrank said:
Accusing people of things which are entirely legal can be defamatory (and indeed I expect that the majority of libel suits turn on accusations of acts that were perfectly legal). A woman once won a libel action because someone alleged that she had been raped. Jason Donovan successfully sued for libel because it was suggested that he was gay.JohnLilburne said:
I'm not sure why the claim might be defamatory, surely he only mentioned tax avoidance which is entirely legal.antifrank said:
I don't rule that one out. He only had the information for an hour before Prime Minister's Questions. It is possible that he got carried away.Richard_Nabavi said:
There is an alternative explanation, of course, which is that he's a fool and hasn't thought it through.antifrank said:So far as the libel threat is concerned, if Ed Miliband repeats his comments outside Parliament and if Lord Fink sues him for libel, it may well work fine for Ed Miliband in the short term.
In the longer term, I can't imagine him being particularly keen on being a defendant in a libel action while he's Prime Minister. But nor can I see him apologising to settle the libel action if he remains active in politics, because that would probably be a career-ending blow to his credibility.
From this, therefore, I infer that he is very doubtful whether he has much chance of becoming Prime Minister and his decision-making is currently predicated on maximising his short term chances. That's logical given the current state of British politics, but it's interesting to have some independent evidence of the point.
On balance, however, I will credit him with some intelligence.
The test is not whether the allegation is that someone acted illegally, but whether the allegation would cause others to think less of them or to damage their reputation.
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I'm not sure about that, true the guardian released it an hour earlier, I suspect Ed had advanced knowledge of it.antifrank said:
He only had the information for an hour before Prime Minister's Questions.Richard_Nabavi said:
There is an alternative explanation, of course, which is that he's a fool and hasn't thought it through.antifrank said:So far as the libel threat is concerned, if Ed Miliband repeats his comments outside Parliament and if Lord Fink sues him for libel, it may well work fine for Ed Miliband in the short term.
In the longer term, I can't imagine him being particularly keen on being a defendant in a libel action while he's Prime Minister. But nor can I see him apologising to settle the libel action if he remains active in politics, because that would probably be a career-ending blow to his credibility.
From this, therefore, I infer that he is very doubtful whether he has much chance of becoming Prime Minister and his decision-making is currently predicated on maximising his short term chances. That's logical given the current state of British politics, but it's interesting to have some independent evidence of the point.
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Earning his coin, by turning up to debates and voting, as one would expect.Pulpstar said:What's Dan doing as an MEP btw
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The best part about the libel law is that the allegation can be entirely true and STILL be libellous. I think ?antifrank said:
Accusing people of things which are entirely legal can be defamatory (and indeed I expect that the majority of libel suits turn on accusations of acts that were perfectly legal). A woman once won a libel action because someone alleged that she had been raped. Jason Donovan successfully sued for libel because it was suggested that he was gay.JohnLilburne said:
I'm not sure why the claim might be defamatory, surely he only mentioned tax avoidance which is entirely legal.antifrank said:
I don't rule that one out. He only had the information for an hour before Prime Minister's Questions. It is possible that he got carried away.Richard_Nabavi said:
There is an alternative explanation, of course, which is that he's a fool and hasn't thought it through.antifrank said:So far as the libel threat is concerned, if Ed Miliband repeats his comments outside Parliament and if Lord Fink sues him for libel, it may well work fine for Ed Miliband in the short term.
In the longer term, I can't imagine him being particularly keen on being a defendant in a libel action while he's Prime Minister. But nor can I see him apologising to settle the libel action if he remains active in politics, because that would probably be a career-ending blow to his credibility.
From this, therefore, I infer that he is very doubtful whether he has much chance of becoming Prime Minister and his decision-making is currently predicated on maximising his short term chances. That's logical given the current state of British politics, but it's interesting to have some independent evidence of the point.
On balance, however, I will credit him with some intelligence.
The test is not whether the allegation is that someone acted illegally, but whether the allegation would cause others to think less of them or to damage their reputation.0 -
Robin Cook's resignation 12 years ago, not exactly Churchill but probably the most powerful of recent speechesJackW said:
Great speeches are normally created through the merger of a great national event and a great HoC's performer.OldKingCole said:Mr W; Is it simply the law of averages that we've not had a great (or even, IIRC a really good) speech in the HoC for over 10 years?
Or don't we have the Members who can do it any longer?
In fairness over the past ten years it's difficult to recall such a conflation.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=I0f8NBlmwwE0 -
Pretty hard for Ed's lawyers to argue that when he's said it's 'dodgy'.JohnLilburne said:I would have thought that his reputation would actually be damaged if it was said he hadn't engaged in tax avoidance and had paid more tax than he needed to. Surely tax avoidance itself should be deemed a neutral phrase.
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@GuidoFawkes: Shapps accuses Miliband of "cowering behind privilege"0
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Jack
"None IMHO fall into the "great" category."
Geoffrey Howe's cricket bat speech was my favourite.0 -
For all excitement ahead of @IpsosMORI 's "corker" of a poll less than £1,000 has been matched on Betfair 's majority market since 4am0
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@MrHarryCole: “@GuidoFawkes: Miliband Thinks Lord Fink Tax Issue is a “Milly Dowler Moment” http://t.co/owQKdJiLth http://t.co/dIxUVjLHnA” classy
@JGForsyth: First, weaponise. Now, 'another Milly Dowler moment'. Labour needs to stop showing how the sausage is made, it is not edifying0 -
The big moves were yesterday evening. My £10 included.MikeSmithson said:For all excitement ahead of @IpsosMORI 's "corker" of a poll less than £1,000 has been matched on Betfair 's majority market since 4am
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@CCHQPress: First he tried to ‘weaponise’ the NHS, now he calls his climbdown a ‘Milly Dowler moment’. How low can Miliband get?
http://t.co/KXmy0NbFXQ0 -
Nice. I have Lab majority at 3.0 from last summer, which seems insipid now.Pulpstar said:I've taken £5 of Labour Majority at 19.0, don't really believe it'll happen with Scotland and all but must be value.
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Using a murdered child to justify a political end. Where's his sense of decency?Scott_P said:@MrHarryCole: “@GuidoFawkes: Miliband Thinks Lord Fink Tax Issue is a “Milly Dowler Moment” http://t.co/owQKdJiLth http://t.co/dIxUVjLHnA” classy
@JGForsyth: First, weaponise. Now, 'another Milly Dowler moment'. Labour needs to stop showing how the sausage is made, it is not edifying0 -
Laying I hope ?rottenborough said:
Nice. I have Lab majority at 3.0 from last summer, which seems insipid now.Pulpstar said:I've taken £5 of Labour Majority at 19.0, don't really believe it'll happen with Scotland and all but must be value.
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The Labour leader using a murdered girl's name with glee because he thinks he can make political capital out of a smear.Scott_P said:@MrHarryCole: “@GuidoFawkes: Miliband Thinks Lord Fink Tax Issue is a “Milly Dowler Moment” http://t.co/owQKdJiLth http://t.co/dIxUVjLHnA” classy
It's amazing that anyone is prepared to vote Labour, frankly.0 -
@JoeMurphyLondon: Stand by for landmark @IpsosMORI poll in tonight's @EveningStandard. Awful for Clegg ... & the biggest parties are up. Is it #endgame?0
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@JoeMurphyLondon: Stand by for landmark @IpsosMORI poll in tonight's @EveningStandard. Awful for Clegg ... & the biggest parties are up. Is it #endgame?0
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Methinks this "corker" is going to result in a great anti-climax. Some people should just put a cork in it.MikeSmithson said:For all excitement ahead of @IpsosMORI 's "corker" of a poll less than £1,000 has been matched on Betfair 's majority market since 4am
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I thought the prevalent view on the left was that trials and virtual executions now belonged on Twitter, and that the law was largely beside the point, what apparently matters is the "moral" case, as decided by a group of social justice warriors and assorted leftie academics and journos.Cyclefree said:
That doesn't appear to be Labour's view. From what one can judge doing something lawful can, depending on who you ask, the state of the weather, which party you support, etc be "dodgy".JohnLilburne said:
I'm not sure why the claim might be defamatory, surely he only mentioned tax avoidance which is entirely legal.antifrank said:
I don't rule that one out. He only had the information for an hour before Prime Minister's Questions. It is possible that he got carried away.Richard_Nabavi said:
There is an alternative explanation, of course, which is that he's a fool and hasn't thought it through.
On balance, however, I will credit him with some intelligence.
Say something completely legal, but possibly a little bit politically incorrect and you are sentenced by the mob to be panned on Twitter for a week or two, have your reputation trashed, and preferably lose your job.0 -
I think the "corker" element is Lib's on 6%.MikeSmithson said:For all excitement ahead of @IpsosMORI 's "corker" of a poll less than £1,000 has been matched on Betfair 's majority market since 4am
It IS pretty astonishing that the Lib's could be doing that badly just weeks from the election, but it generally seem's to be pretty much "priced in" now....
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Four months before GE2010 IpsosMORI had CON 43, LAB 26, LD 190
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@robertsjonathan: Milly Dowler moment?! Really? Ed Miliband's team have effectively described the murder of a child as a political opportunity to be exploited0
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Wow.Scott_P said:@CCHQPress: First he tried to ‘weaponise’ the NHS, now he calls his climbdown a ‘Milly Dowler moment’. How low can Miliband get?
http://t.co/KXmy0NbFXQ0 -
UKIP floundering too?TheScreamingEagles said:@JoeMurphyLondon: Stand by for landmark @IpsosMORI poll in tonight's @EveningStandard. Awful for Clegg ... & the biggest parties are up. Is it #endgame?
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Lord Ashcroft didn't send his Scottish polling out to anyone did he ?TheScreamingEagles said:@JoeMurphyLondon: Stand by for landmark @IpsosMORI poll in tonight's @EveningStandard. Awful for Clegg ... & the biggest parties are up. Is it #endgame?
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Hmmmm...TheScreamingEagles said:@JoeMurphyLondon: Stand by for landmark @IpsosMORI poll in tonight's @EveningStandard. Awful for Clegg ... & the biggest parties are up. Is it #endgame?
Last MORI was Con 33% Lab 34%. So Labour must be on or above 35% with this poll?
Maybe something like Lab 36% Con 35%?
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Perhaps not the happiest of comparisons from the political point of view either considering how this story seems to have started, and :Scott_P said:@robertsjonathan: Milly Dowler moment?! Really? Ed Miliband's team have effectively described the murder of a child as a political opportunity to be exploited
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2668488/How-Guardians-false-claim-Milly-Dowler-shut-News-World.html0 -
Lets put together the clues
LAB 36%
CON 35%
Lib Dem 6%0 -
@JoeMurphyLondon: EXCLUSIVE LORD FINK INTERVIEW. Everyone avoids tax, says peer. He admits setting up family trusts in Switzerland http://t.co/FbMXGbV6ws0
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Some of us hate the Tories and Cameron and Osborne personally.Richard_Nabavi said:
The Labour leader using a murdered girl's name with glee because he thinks he can make political capital out of a smear.Scott_P said:@MrHarryCole: “@GuidoFawkes: Miliband Thinks Lord Fink Tax Issue is a “Milly Dowler Moment” http://t.co/owQKdJiLth http://t.co/dIxUVjLHnA” classy
It's amazing that anyone is prepared to vote Labour, frankly.0 -
Ed has won
@JoeMurphyLondon: EXCLUSIVE LORD FINK INTERVIEW. Everyone avoids tax, says peer. He admits setting up family trusts in Switzerland http://t.co/FbMXGbV6ws0 -
@JoeMurphyLondon: EXCLUSIVE POLL - by @IpsosMORI in @EveningStandard. Labour 36% (+2); Con 34 (+1); UKIP 9 (-2); Green 7 (-1) LD 6 (-2) ..... (cont. 1/3)0
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@JoeMurphyLondon: EXCLUSIVE POLL - by @IpsosMORI in @EveningStandard. Labour 36% (+2); Con 34 (+1); UKIP 9 (-2); Green 7 (-1) LD 6 (-2) ..... (cont. 1/3)0
