The is a bit of a mess for Find Out Now – politicalbetting.com
The is a bit of a mess for Find Out Now – politicalbetting.com
The fallout from that Find Out Now poll is a bit of a mess, over a decade ago a pollster told ‘you’re only as good as your last poll’, on that basis it’s not good for Find Out Now, but for them there’s a few elections coming up for them to recover as I cannot recall ever a pollster saying their poll isn’t statistically signficant.
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Or a free summary at https://coinpaper.com/14202/abu-dhabi-money-linked-to-trump-crypto-project-raises-foreign-influence-questions
One for @Sandpit
Well, yes, but the problem with the "poll" is that it has created a narrative, set the tone (whatever you want) for the contest. I think it's a poor poll for Reform as it has stuck a great big target on Goodwin's back showing he can be defeated but we'll see.
As for Tinsley, Crick is as usual being absurd. Why do you have to "belong to a party" as though you were a brand of cat food? It'sperfectly possible for people to have connections to and dealings parties they don't support and suggesting a partisan motive isn't helpful. Most people don't understand most things about polls and polling (that's obvious on here for example). They just see the headline figures and jump into "over analysis" mode.
If I were being a little critical, far from the most original opening comment for a thread.
In most other polls you have 75%+ respondents expressing a voting intention, here it is barely 35%.
One advantage of the FON system of piggybacking the postcode lottery is that they can do constituency samples easily. The question over how representative they are is the issue, in particular as to which demographics they miss.
FON strike me as what would happen if Clarkson, May and Hammond set up a polling firm, just with fewer jokes.
*Sunil?
If you have a random sample, then even a sample of 51 tells you something.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AOPZuXh-f5M
Trump on his multiple suits against the federal government: "I'm supposed to work out a settlement with myself ... We could make it a substantial amount, nobody would care, because it's gonna go to numerous, very good charities."
@markjacob.bsky.social
He's looting the U.S. Treasury, people. Most crooked dictators find covert ways to get rich. Trump intends to simply order his government to transfer money into his bank account.
@nathankalmoe.bsky.social
Usually dictators are more subtle about looting the treasury, because gross corruption is often a part of what gets them overthrown.
In which battle did Horatio Nelson die?
Whatever its merits or otherwise, it has set the agenda and the tone at least for now.
Look at how many by-elections have been "influenced" by late polls showing challengers closing on leaders and I remember Michael Portillo saying his defeat at Enfield Southgate in 1997 was caused by an Observer poll the weekend before showing the level of swing in Conservative seats like his was far greater (was it 15-17%?) than the UNS swing on poll headline numbers which was nearer 10%?
Even in 2024, the swing in some seats was far greater than any national move - in Chippenham the LDs won on a swing of 21%, the national swing from Con to LD was more like 11-12%.
UNS was always an average of a range of swings.
Which was cause and which was effect?
You can check yours here.
It’s good to be confident but don’t overdo it and think you can make a success of something that even experts are reluctant to attempt. If you insist on having a go, be sure to prepare well and have the support of friends. Don’t climb mountains without back-up.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/home/article-12694901/Horoscopes-stars-week-SALLY-BROMPTON.html
It seems to me that the apology is an underused piece of armour in public life. Getting out an apology which is clear, unambiguous, doesn't make qualifications, doesn't use the words 'but' or however' and doesn't transfer part of the blame is not used enough. It is a powerful PR weapon. But the most important element is to do it early and 'get your blow in first' (St Trinian's excellent and true motto), and well before you have started down the usual track of: silence, denial, justification, evasion, transfer of blame to other parties, blaming the media, minimising, pivoting, threatening to issue a writ and so on.
https://bsky.app/profile/peterstefanovic.bsky.social/post/3mdpu525r5k2r
Noticeably more ethnically diverse (albeit smaller) crowd than for the Greens.
Also a promise from Burnham to help:
https://bsky.app/profile/andyburnham.bsky.social/post/3mdqfin7bc22y
It must be hard to adequately sample the young and those religious groups that do not gamble.
Demographic balancing of samples must be a real problem for them.
"The share of Americans who strongly disapprove of the job Trump is doing hit a second term high of 45.7 percent yesterday. Comparatively few Americans — 24.2 percent — strongly approve of Trump."
So while the headline net approval rate is -14.3%, the net strong approval rate is -21.5%. That's what came through in yesterday's state senate special election, and what I think will be decisive in November.
The myth here is America is equally divided pro and anti Trump. While that division is real, it's clearly no longer the case that it's an equal one.
I don't think Reform would win Gorton and Denton anyway, but I wonder if they'll regret choosing a member of the southern metropolitan academic far-right elite to contest it, when both Greens and Labour have chosen strong local candidates.
https://www.maxhastings.com/2016/05/31/its-an-unholy-mess-but-heres-why-im-voting-to-stay-in-the-eu/
But radicalised by the fact of the result, I think.
But hold on, what are the alternatives? Political obsessives who have signed up for every panel going (the early days of pb regularly had posts from those who had just completed questionnaires) are hardly representative. Or those desperate enough for money that they will spend half an hour answering hypothetical marketing questions before the political ones? A few years ago, it would have been those out and about during the day with time to kill, or those phoned at home by polling companies too stupid to realise their phone number randomisation methods could never work and who would take the call.
FON's approach seems be better than most of these, at least in principle. Ask one or two questions only to people already on a site for different reasons.
Here is my nailed-on prediction for the next general election. The day after, the polling companies will announce an inquiry into why the polls were wrong. They always do, because they always are.
Bought a green hot hatch and saved the rest.
Bet they all have guns though.
Edit. Considerably less impressive than Taz's workmate.
https://x.com/discontent_scot/status/2017639406228644121?s=20
IIRC the online lottery that FON uses is free, which can be used as an excuse to get round religious prohibitions. See “Vodka is made from potatoes, so isn’t ‘fruit of the grape’”
This is one reason why, without Trump, all the successors lose in polling matchups.
Though tbf PB's own Ezra Pound also voted for Starmy.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/j9978nOnEWQ
The only thing I've read in it was the BBC article, which described the Epstein connections of the Prince's sister married to the US shaman (sic), and talked at length about the Crown Princess without mentioning her Epstein involvement.
But yes, free to enter means it's not gambling. The early horseracing meetings in Dubai had no betting, obviously, but there were free competitions to pick all the winners. I do not know what they are like now.
We often talk of nepotism and the old school tie but there are other ways the deck is stacked. Boris got his Telegraph job after he had been sacked by the Times for lying because he'd met and impressed Max Hastings at the Oxford Union.
Beavers are fish, did you know that?
It doesn't surprise me in the slightest.
Legalising class A drugs ! Not sure this is a vote winner .
If I was Mr Tinsley I'd be withholding payment.
More importantly how does this affect the PB competition if FON are disqualified by the BPC?
Less than 14% might not be a mistake after all!
At least here you have a peer group that will challenge - even if some are never wrong.
Missed out posting yesterday because of family commitments. Have I missed anything significant.
In local news the Conservatives, fighting to regain a seat lost at the last elections have apparently urged voters to vote Conservative, otherwise their majority on the Council will be in peril.
Just a tip.
Decent bloke @Richard_Tyndall voted for Brexit.
Nigel Farage; not decent bloke.
See how that works ?
Come on now
I put him in the Heathite Pym/Prior Tory patriarch category.
"I was dining in a pizza establishment when a young lady with a severe gluten intolerance went into anaphylactic shock. When I rushed over to help she was in a pool of sweat, something I am unfamiliar with, causing me to slip and fall over, at which point my trousers fell down."
Glad you recognise it.
Perhaps something to consider fo Andrew Mountbatten-'Babs' Windsor?
https://x.com/MichaelTakeMP/status/2017886224141193487?s=20
I think it's a really bad idea to put adulturated chemical substances in your body but I don't see it as my business.
Utah GOP Gov. Spencer Cox has signed a bill allowing him to add two new justices to the Utah Supreme Court, a move that could reshape future rulings on Utah’s congressional maps, including the court-mandated Democratic UT-01 under Prop 4.
https://x.com/VoteHub/status/2017653309805384096