Please exercise caution with this Find Out Now poll – politicalbetting.com
Please exercise caution with this Find Out Now poll – politicalbetting.com
Please exercise caution with this poll. The Telegraph reports this is based on a sample size of just 143. The margin of error on this poll is just over 8% if the sample size correctly recorded, most polls have a MOE of around 3%.https://t.co/ghf9KCFqhg https://t.co/ZxHeLWbN0R
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Too late now ..
"Can't win here" will be the kiss of death.
🚨 NEW: The first by-election poll from Gorton and Denton shows Reform UK winning the seat
➡️ REF - 30%
🔴 LAB - 27%
🟢 GRN - 17%
🔵 CON - 6%
🔶 LD - 2%
Don't knows - 18%
Via
@FindoutnowUK
, 143 sample size, January 26-27
Lab 49%, Reform 28% Greens 8% Conservatives 7%
"Slovakia's Fico denies reports suggesting he was concerned about Trump's 'psychological state'
Meanwhile, Politico has published a report suggesting that Slovakia’s prime minister Robert Fico reportedly told fellow EU leaders that a meeting with Donald Trump left him shocked by the US president’s state of mind – a claim publicly denied by Fico.
"According to five EU diplomats briefed on the talks on the margin of the last EU summit who spoke with Politico, Fico reportedly told other leaders he was concerned about the US president’s “psychological state,” saying he came across as “dangerous” in their meeting at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate earlier this month."
It has to be said some of Trump's recent posts have been even more deluded than usual.
JD must be doing some deep-breathing exercises.
Given the margin of error you could easily have seen Greens leading, and that would lead to a different outcome.
I'm sure Greens would have used a similar-sized poll in the same way if it gave better figures for them, but it wouldn't matter so much with a different voting system...
China just open-sourced AI that makes $200 cameras outperform $2,000 sensors.
Ant Group dropped:
→ 3.2M training samples
→ Full code + models
→ Fixes depth cameras on glass, mirrors, metal
A $200 consumer camera + free AI now beats $800 pro sensors.
China is giving away the entire robotics stack.
This is infrastructure-level disruption...
https://x.com/heyshrutimishra/status/2016225484263326133
(Longish thread.)
If he succeeds any earlier than January 20th 2027 and he will only be able to run in 2028 as his 2.x years would count as his first term.
That thread should be treated as even more unreliable than the FON poll.
Certainly enough to stress Starmer, Farage and Polanski
Stay at home labour supporters could be quite a factor, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Starmer get away with it
BREAKING: FBI executes search warrant at Fulton County, Georgia election office in connection with 2020 vote - Fox
Perhaps some parts like Wigan and Leigh, but overall they ought to be able to be defeated.
edit: see @eek beat me to this point
Already posted
1. Vote Reform. Britain is broken. Blame the immigrants.
2. Vote Green. Britain is broken. Blame the super-rich.
3. Vote Labour. Britain isn't broken, but after 14 years of Tory rule it's not in great shape and, slowly but surely, we're going to put it right (with or without the help of A. Burnham).
4. Vote Conservative. Britain is in the same place as our Party: not quite broken, but nearly.
5. Vote Lib Dem: we're not sure whether Britain is broken or not.
6. Vote WPB: Britain is broken. Twin Gorton with Gaza.
Christ knows who's going to win out of that lot.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-15506217/Ukraines-drones-wipe-15-Putins-military-aircraft-worth-1billion-Russian-airfields.html
Not that that's a bad thing, as FPTP is an insane electoral system when you move beyond 2/3 parties that will generate very weird results...
Cleverley
Lam - reported to be going Reform
Coutinho - literally almost no-one has heard of her apart from anoraks and her mum
Boris - not an MP
Farage - not a Conservative
Lowe - not a Conservative.
The ex-headmaster of a leading private school has denied using its credit card to purchase tickets for a cricket match at Lord’s.
Julian Johnson-Munday, 63, was charged with fraud over claims that he used a Culford School credit card for “personal expenses”, including stays at the East India Club in St James’s.
Mr Johnson-Munday wore a skirt and long black boots during a hearing at Westminster magistrates’ court on Tuesday, in which he was referred to using male pronouns.
The headmaster – who was dismissed by the school, in Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk, in 2023 – is alleged to have used one of its credit cards for tickets to a cricket match at Lord’s in London.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/01/27/headteacher-denies-buying-cricket-tickets-school-funds/?recomm_id=f50ba40e-374c-49fd-84a5-457dad709652
Insert 4. Vote Conservative. Britain is NOT broken, it just needs repairing.
Kemi gave that to us herself earlier today, so there was no point to you making up meaningless drivel.
Nor does Donald have the bottle for long, ongoing operations with US military casualties and Iranian civil deaths mounting up.
So if Iran call bluff on this bit of gun boat diplomacy, what is Trumps off ramp from bigging this all up? Kidnap the supreme leader as a trade?
It’s like a cowboy movie.
As to a GE, the structure, in England and outside LD land, looks at the moment to depend on two interesting prospects. Do Greens and Labour and OTOH Reform and Tories fight each other to mutual death. The winner will be which of Left of Centre and Right of Centre have voters who organiser their vote better. If both organise badly, it's random. As they all hate each other this is possible.
The most likely, as LOC and ROC will both get about half the votes and most people want a plausible government, and 70% don't want Reform, is that Lab v Con is the main bout.
Kemi clearly said after Jenrick called Britain broken, that Britain is NOT BROKEN. Today’s change is a strategically crafted evolution of the parties position on it, clever enough to beat PB two threads back, as everyone inanely posted “but something being repaired, it’s broken.”
Look carefully. Kemi is not stating it’s broken.
Too clever for you?
Ridiculous poll
Riiight.
What makes Britain Great, the Great British people
Cut to a picture of people waving flags and Tommy Skinner is at the front.
That made me laugh. The rest is just drivel. Ed Davey talking to camera. Pretty cheap to make.
Not an Armada but powerful.enough
He has been repositing his carriers and certainly with his bases already in the area he could overpower Iran if he is minded to
Just to say, to give some sense of my issue with this poll, note that FON put their polls on a lottery's website. Now Gorton and Denton is about 30% Muslim. Now, I'm no religious expert, but my understanding is that Islam strictly forbids gambling...
https://bsky.app/profile/cjterry.bsky.social/post/3mdiu2v3pzs2x
Reform could do it given some sensible Tory support, and Labour and Green not wanting to surrender the field to each other.
However, I would worry that the Labour vote will fold pretty efficiently into the Green vote.
#GoodMuslim
Tory argument appears to be we can still treat our broken finger, Reform that we need to cut off the hand before infection from the break spreads further.
However given how good my betting turns out, I consider it investing rather than gambling.
My sense is that when Reform say that Britain is broken, they mean that the current model for how Britain is governed is broken beyond repair and needs to be replaced entirely, and so the difference is that Kemi is saying that things are not so bad that they can't be repaired within the current parameters of the system as it exists.
So it's the age old reform vs revolution argument.
Edit: and of course a further confusion is that the party in favour of revolution have called themselves Reform.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/jan/28/badenoch-tories-mp-defections-march-to-the-right
Bill Kristol
@BillKristol
·
4h
“An administration official gave away the game to Punchbowl News, admitting that these “de-escalatory measures” are about placating Senate Democrats so they don’t seize this moment to demand restrictions on ICE as part of any government funding package.”
https://x.com/BillKristol/status/2016512590709477497
Trump is saying it’s about no nukes for Iran. If Iran privately has intent, no handshake over any agreement, or more military strikes same as last year fundamentally stops Iranian nukes, and can be hailed as finally stopping it for good?
Blow up Bushehr? Pointless as Russia takes everything away from there already. More hits on Natanz and Fordow, merely delays, doesn’t greatly provide any solution to Irans determined quest, and would also shred the great triumph the 2025 strikes were claimed to be.
Can we rule out, the same trick as on Venezuela, and get control of Iranian oil?
Whether they are behind the curve and daft to be so oil mad, there’s still no doubt, this Whitehouse is, certifiably, oil mad.
The US voters strike me as the sort who love the US military, but most of all like them deployed in defensive capacity, not used in political and ideological offensive capacity. So what do all the Republican candidates make of it, this election year?
Mind you, on the same basis, you'd have to say Stride was not up to the job of Shadow Chancellor. I can't think of any members of the shadow cabinet that haven't been anonymous, excepting Philp.
On its own it doesn't look that bashing though.
Everyone has always said something daft on social media that can be held against them in the future.
One day, someone has had a good night's sleep, and is rested and sharp, and you think "oh, they're just like they've always been". The next day they are confused and angry and incoherent.
The thing is that the person who is rested and sharp doesn't realise that there are also times when they are a gibbering idiot, and that things are only going to get worse. Pulling the trigger on the 25th is a really difficult thing to do, because if Mr Rested and Sharp turns up, you're going to look like you stabbed a sane person in the back for naked personal ambition.
It's why it didn't happen with the -also obviously unfit- Biden.
Now that Jenrick bloke, he made a splash at least.
Once they ever got in it would be at least a bit more complex, and they'd acknoweldge that then (see any Council where either has control), and hope that they'd retain sufficient support to make a long term go of it - traditional parties have had that happen, but disappointing realities might be more problematic for parties promising transformation.
In the first Reform government, Leon could be put in charge of Media, Fisheries and Sport. With power to ban PB, and allow it back if it makes grovelling apology and promises to behave.
What Reform are addressing (and what the Tories were addressing until the current jolts) is the fact that we've gone so far down the road to crazy-ville that 'revolutionary' reform is needed to do what are actually very prosaic things. Britain isn't currently governable. Even Labour are finding this. If it were, why would SKS admit that he was pulling levers and nothing was happening?
Reform have got it wrong with their 'Britain is broken' phrasing though. It sounds too negative. They are actually the only ones who can be arsed to fix Britain. Everyone else has given up, and are content to kick the can down the road and hope they make enough to retire abroad. That makes Reform the optimists, not the pessimists.
I think she has done better than most but I accept that is a painfully low bar.
If something is broken to the extent that it is not functional (like a car that's been run over by a tank) you don't lose anything by taking a sledgehammer to the debris. But however bad things are in Britain they're not so bad that you can't do a heck of a lot of damage to it - and by extension to people's lives - if you take a figurative sledgehammer to all the ways in which it still mostly works.
And Reform don't seem to have a clue about how to go about taking a sledgehammer to only the bits that are not working, without bringing the whole edifice crashing down.
If you are in a party whose MO is "saying the unsayable", sometimes you are going to have your people saying things that really really shouldn't be said.