Labour Leadership – The Betting Value’s With Rayner and Miliband – politicalbetting.com
Labour Leadership – The Betting Value’s With Rayner and Miliband – politicalbetting.com
In the absence of recent polling on the outcome of a contest as to who will replace Starmer, this Survation polling from September is probably the best decent ball park guide. The sample is of Labour List readers who said they are Labour members (link here)
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Would be interesting to see Miliband win though. I know he's not flavour of the month on PB but he does at least have some imagination and an idea of what he wants to do, which appears to be more than Starmer or Sunak.
Mind, we could have said the same of Massive or Lettuce Lady...
I wouldn't be surprised if Labour had their Liz Truss moment.
Ladies & gents… I’m still trying to make sense of this. Weak. Afraid. Full stop.
https://x.com/SlyForTheRight/status/2015923444228227263
I'm shocked.
Shocked, I tell you.
As in, she's much too generous to them.
If the officers in this case are not themselves banged up for perverting the course of justice, we might as well pack up the court system and go home.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c4gl0r0052po
Though I can get back on Ed M at longer odds than I cashed in still.
For the Tory optimists out there Badenoch is available at up to 17 on Betfair to be next PM, which is longer odds than Shabana Mahmood. If you subscribed to the conspiracy that Reform is being funded to clear out problematic Conservatives then that would be a good bet.
https://bsky.app/profile/tom.medsky.social/post/3mdf22bpdz225
Long way to go yet but I think it's worth pointing out that the entire rightwing media ecosystem went all in on the idea that Americans, or at least enough of us, would accept the idea that the government should be able to murder people in the street and they failed utterly
Mind you, the furious escalation in building and maintenance costs is real. In my old block of flats, it was all freehold. So we ran it through a committee. The last couple of years, things like painting have doubled in price. Window replacement is worse.
And this is with serious shopping around, trying to get deals - such as offering turns a rolling project to replace all the windows - multiple hundreds.
TBF, if these rules are actually needed he has a point. I went through every clause to check I wasn't going to be in trouble on my rental property, and I realised that there was nothing in there I wasn't doing already. There were two points were I needed to make slight adjustments and I will need to register as a landlord, but neither are exactly critical.
Once again, note the lack of traditional Great Office holders on the list. Becoming Prime Minister at a difficult time (if it's not a difficult time, Starmer hangs on) is not a thing for a novice to try.
Hard not to conclude that red team supporters are as silly and self-indulgent as their blue counterparts.
The Prime Minister said deeper economic alignment with the EU would be more effective than a customs union
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2026/01/27/keir-starmer-eu-single-market-closer-labour-customs-union/
Or maybe it was just the implication having a gun on you was sufficient post justification to bring it home for them - that could be me!
Or May I be being unfair?
Linking to the header, is there any way for an ambitious Labour MP to get the leadership without showing a lot of leg on Europe; possibly up to single customs and united market arrangements? Compare with the way that Conservative leadership elections ratcheted them steadily more Eurosceptic.
In a rare bit of sense from the Peruvian Government, they sent a new general of police (I think that is rank) to get a grip.
He introduced several policies that were effective and popular - Our friends from #BigCycling would have approved of his pedestrianisation efforts (to put a brake on scooter borne theft from outdoor cafe clients).
His methodology for dealing with car jacking was simple and effective.
It was noticed, that his very first act was to arrest and have prosecuted, a number of police officers. And made sure then went to jail. This was for a range of offences - chiefly taking bribes, but also faking evidence to “fit up”. Given the life expectancy of a police officer in a Peruvian jail, this had a salutary effect on the remainder.
And I fully understand why she wasn't rushing to pay HMRC when they took 17 months to pay me the £8,000 they owed me from tax year 2023/4...
Breaking news! We're rejoining neither the single market nor the customs union. But the headline looks like something has changed. Have at it, PB!
Leasehold exists for a good reason, the building has to be maintained for everyone's benefit.
I had a similar SoF flat, it had been managed by volunteers, the other 80-90% of the leaseholders did sweet FA, there were large service charge arrears mainly from a few BtLs, and they'd spent 3-4 years getting nowhere on a roof replacement.
When I joined the committee the others had determined to appoint a local estate agent as managing agent who were predictably useless, it took 3-4 years to get rid and appoint a competent managing agency. The woman assigned to us was very competent, we got back a good proportion of the arrears and 2-3 reasonable quotes for maintenance work were sourced in days.
I was still very relieved when I sold up and could leave the board, almost their first act when I left was to fall out with the managing agent and when I passed I saw some 20 year olds wandering round the front garden with notebooks that they'd appointed instead.
Brief summary, shortlist, interview, visit the properties they manage and then appoint a proper managing agent. It'll save money, time, stress and legal liabilities.
So quick were they to "own the libs" they forgot about who owned the guns.
https://bsky.app/profile/davidallengreen.bsky.social/post/3mdedwb5mic22
🆘🆘You might wonder how the regime is tracking down and arresting doctors who treat wounded protesters. This is how.
They have turned healthcare into a surveillance trap. Over the past few years, all prescriptions were centralized and digitized.
Pharmacies are banned from giving out even basic wound-care supplies without an official prescription. A simple IV saline bag now requires registration. Every bandage, painkiller, antibiotic, every drop of medicine leaves a digital footprint.
So when doctors help the wounded, the regime does not need informants. It just audits prescription records, flags injury patterns, and follows the data straight to the physician. Treating the injured has been criminalized. The medical system itself is being used to identify, arrest, and silence doctors who chose humanity over obedience.
Even in war, the wounded have the right to medical care. Violating that is a war crime. What’s happening now is one of the worst atrocities of our time, with chilling similarities to the darkest chapters of history, including the Holocaust.
These people must receive care. There must be safe channels to get medicine and medical help to them. Iranians need help...
https://x.com/__Injaneb96/status/2015961858482614527
https://www.economist.com/interactive/trump-approval-tracker
It is very easy, in the current climate to get quotes to justify massive prices for maintenance or building work.
See the scumbags who charged “fees” for work visas. Most of them stayed close enough to the law that they haven’t been prosecuted.
And he's still only just underwater with white voters, who clearly aren't paying attention
Share of freehold is critical for control.
This week's YouGov:
Reform: 25% (+1)
Labour: 21% (+2)
Conservative: 17% (-1)
Green: 16% (-1)
Liberal Democrat: 14% (=)
From 25th - 26th January
Changes with 19th January
Not much change in all honesty.
Thank God that electing a Labour government with a massive majority has meant we've left behind the endless instability and personality-based psychodramas of the Tory years.
Rayner if she got 80 Labour MPs to nominate her a Yougov Labour members poll showed would beat Streeting and Ed Miliband but that is a big if. Streeting though would beat Ed Miliband, so it looks like the race would really be between Streeting and Rayner (if she got her HMRC issues sorted) with Ed Miliband a likely Chancellor for the winner.
https://news.sky.com/story/almost-two-in-three-labour-members-back-burnham-over-starmer-for-leader-poll-show-13441078
As Labour leadership elections are run on preferential voting even if Starmer was challenged and still ran it would not effect the result as it is not FPTP
If YouGov are right, Labour are doing perfectly adequately for a mid-term government, and all this Change The Leader stuff is a mixture of panic in the ranks and selfish ambition amongst the officers.
If FoN are right, Labour are in pretty deep doodoo.
It's all about how they collect and read their runes, and right now it's impossible to tell who is doing it right.
The setups I've heard about in the occasional news article where a single occupant building that could perfectly well have been owner occupied freehold is set up with a leasehold should be banned, if they haven't been already.
If however Labour are second it will be Kemi, not Sir Keir, facing a leadership threat
Bad poll for Kemi, the Tories now just 1% ahead of the Greens and with the LDs also closer to the Tories than the Tories are to Labour with Yougov.
Btw, on Burnham I have to say I would care more if I thought he might make a decent PM. I do not.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/crrnee01r9jo
As to the problem of non-resident freeholders - yes, this a big part of it.
Being able to hire and fire the management company is vital, I think.
(FWIW, a friend of mine who works at the GM combined authority yesterday received a hilariously terse email from the head of the CA confirming the mayor had made it clear that 'his full focus remains on Greater Manchester' - which was apparently greeted with laughter.)
If I was exposed to AB becoming the next Labour leader and/or PM, I would probably be trying to ease myself out of that position now with a view to swinging modestly the other way should Labour lose the G&D by-election (which I think they will).
Kemi certainly needs to get the Tories back to a clear second ahead of Labour to ensure she avoids a no confidence vote in the Spring after the local and devolved elections and avoids being replaced by Cleverly
As with Ed Miliband, you might not like what she is doing but at least she is doing something.
Whichever way you slice it, both “main” parties are plumbing depths of unpopularity. Their support is now below what most observers saw as their core vote.
Both have seen a large chunk of support leave (ha) and seem to do so in a rather more permanent manner that has happened in the past.
Labour is only (relatively) lucky that the Conservatives are in a similar state.
Yes with hindsight we know she surmounted all but the last one, but it’s easy to be wise with hindsight and I doubt if it felt so stable at the time.
He's talking about reclaiming Doggerland, it's going to be populated with refugees and governed like Hong Kong used to be.
https://www.globalconstructionreview.com/construction-begins-on-belgiums-e7bn-energy-island/
The question on my mind is whether the soft-left back Streeting's assumed attempt after the May elections to unseat Starmer, or if they decide they'd rather keep Starmer in place until either Rayner or Burnham is available to stand for the leadership.
Reports are that Miliband had a deal to support Burnham in exchange for becoming Chancellor, and Miliband gives every indication of being happy to be a senior Cabinet minster rather than leader, so I think he'd be happy to bide his time to wait until Rayner was free of the HMRC investigation.
But is that a realistic option given Labour leadership rules and processes?
Precedents are there to be broken, not a rule of nature.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2026/jan/26/andy-burnham-try-again-westminster-return
Makes rational sense- the electoral system by then would be SV not FPTP. Alternatively, they know that their current excuse won't wash by then. For some reason, Andy doesn't want to wait until 2027.
God knows what QEII would have thought if she had still been alive.
Firstly, without the delay to the process of government implosion that the death of the Queen provided during Truss's Ministry, would the Labour Truss end up lasting even less time in post?
Alternatively, might a similar crisis play out rather differently with Labour MPs not being as ruthless about defenestrating a second PM in quick succession, and what might that mean?
How high will the Greens poll as a backlash? Until the debacle with Truss, Reform were only polling ~3% - if the Greens receive a similar rocket in support as a result of a Labour Truss tribute act...
And this, writing in Tribune, is Andrea Egan, the new general secretary of one of Labour’s most important trade union backers, Unison, on how Starmer and the NEC committee rejected Burnham: “I know that I speak for many of my colleagues across the trade union movement, and in chorus with a significant number of Labour MPs, when I say that we cannot allow those currently in charge of the party to take us down with them. A radical change in direction — in party culture, in policy for the country, in how we deal with the far-right threat — could not be more urgently needed. I am confident that a broad, pluralist coalition across our movement will now come together to ensure we see that change.”
- there being a by-election
- AB having the balls to put himself forward for the by-election
- the NEC acceding
- Winning the by-election
- Engineering a challenge for the leadership
- Winning the leadership
But I have been surprised by the strength of feeling within the Labour Party that the NEC have made the wrong decision. I have become convinced that enough pressure will be applied. I'm convinced 1 can be re-engineered, and clearly there is no problem with 2. 4 will be tricky but not insurmountable and I'm sure 5 and 6 are relatively easy. 3 is the biggest, and arguably the only significant barrier. It is just a case for the not-SKS bloc - which is large - of applying enough pressure.
i.e. it was Swiss Cheese theory, but it isn't any more. It's simply a case of hammering the NEC nut hard enough - and last weekend was the start of that. The others can all line up fairly easily.
You're right about interest rates; haven't looked at the figures but 10% seems low for the average. I was trying to run a small business at the time and it was, especially when added to the landlords bizarre idea as to how high the rent could go it was crippling.
I was very glad when I found someone else to take over the lease.
Given that they're currently 10pp behind in the polls, even losing by the ~7pp margin of 2015 would be an improvement.
STV News
@STVNews
Reform's leader in Scotland has said the country "should be rolling out the red carpet" for Donald Trump. https://i.stv.tv/3LD61Um
https://x.com/STVNews/status/2015834459220672991?s=20
@DPJHodges
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A declaration of war from the head of Unison on the Labour Party leadership. This is a big deal.
https://x.com/DPJHodges/status/2016090888183628104