Young will suffer most when AI ‘tsunami’ hits jobs, says head of IMF
Kristalina Georgieva says research suggests 60% of jobs in advanced economies will be affected, with many entry-level roles wiped out
Artificial intelligence will be a “tsunami hitting the labour market”, with young people worst affected, the head of the International Monetary Fund warned the World Economic Forum on Friday.
Kristalina Georgieva told delegates in Davos that the IMF’s own research suggested there would be a big transformation of demand for skills, as the technology becomes increasingly widespread.
“We expect over the next years, in advanced economies, 60% of jobs to be affected by AI, either enhanced or eliminated or transformed – 40% globally,” she said. “This is like a tsunami hitting the labour market.”
I certainly wouldn't want to be coming out of uni now looking to be a software developer, data scientist, consultancy.
Probably needs a radical rethink of the jobs market.
Also driving jobs are likely to go too. Taxi drivers, lorry drivers, van drivers. For a lorry load up at departure, unload at arrival. Self drive.
We need a forward thinking, proactive, govt to look at the numbers going to Uni and where the jobs of the future are. That’s a lot of income tax and NI to lose.
Tesla is now demonstrating FSD from coast to coast in the USA, It is happening. Driving is disappearing. I noticed also today that insurers are HALVING their premiums for drivers that agree to let the car do the driving, as they are so much less prone to accidents. This is how economics will quickly force humans away from the steering wheel. The way humans aren’t allowed to do laser eye surgery. Safety = profit
Whatever happened to @JosiasJessop? He and I used to have enjoyable arguments on this. Did he flounce? Is he banned? I was gone and now I’m back he is nowhere
Fuck him. He flounced after you called him a beta cuck 😂😂😂😂. A beta cuck being the sort of guy who sits down to pee.
He’s one of those fragile flowers who was very keen to dish it but when he got a little back he cried like a little soy bitch (TM Steve Inman).
Nice to see you back.
As for AI we shouldn’t resist the changes but adapt. There’s an air of ‘smash the spinning Jenny’ going on.
The IMF director on AI. Middle class kids are going to be squeezed.
The newfound anti-Americanism in Europe risks leaving Ukraine in a very difficult position because it puts a different gloss on Putin's 25 year-long effort to resist US encroachment will make the option of nomalising trade with Russia start to look attractive, especially to Germany.
I am not sure what total 2 plus 2 has made there but it sure isn't 4.
Why look uniquely to a bankrupt Russia?
To be fair, I think for some industries, like internet trolling, Russia do pay premium rates.
After Trump's disgusting comments on Afghanistan it is time to drop the fawning and realise he is a real threat and bully and time to call him out
No more appeasement, just take immediate action to massively increase our defence spending and form new alliances with the EU, Canada, Australia, Japan and the sane parts of the world
It seems astonishing that Trump declares a deal with Rutte over Greenland that did not include the Danes or Greenlanders agreement
I do not think Greenland or Ukraine is anywhere near settled and Trump's plans for Gaza are obscene
Jeremy Hunt was on one of the most appalling episodes of WATO I have heard. It was a real hatchet job on Starmer re: Trump/ NATO. Dimond came in with his boots on to kick Starmer expecting Hunt would jump at the opportunity. But Hunt was very measured. He outlined the dilemma in Downing Street. Hunt explained that the sitting Government have to limit or at least control their personal criticism of Trump over Afghanistan because whether we like it or not we have to keep Trump sweet over Ukraine. If he takes his bat and ball home Ukraine falls.
Hunt did say even if Downing Street has to bite collective tongues anyone else can criticise to their heart's content. Which brings me back to Farage, he's been awfully quiet.
Allegedly he's on constituency business in Clacton.
I am old enough to remember when GB News camera crews were permanently encamped in the Clacton constituency.
Just as Trump delivered the election to Carney, it seems he could do the same in Denmark's election this year. (Though a lot can happen between now and October.)
Today's Danish opinion poll from Megafon is beyond crazy. The red bloc regains a majority and the blue bloc loses 9% of the vote since last month: 🟥 Red Bloc 51.7%, 90 seats 🟦 Blue Bloc 41.9%, 73 seats 🟪 M 6.4%, 12 seats Danish politics has completely changed in just a month. https://x.com/Gust_2319/status/2014570635582652557
This is the same Red Bloc which has supported dismantling neighbourhoods if the percentage of ethnic minorities gets too high?
Good attempt at ignoring the effect.
You’re quite the Rejoiner, I imagine
How would you vote in a new referendum if, say, Le Pen was running France, Meloni Italy, and a Merz-Afd Coalition in Germany? Plus Orban and all the rest
Because this is really quite likely. The EU is poised to shift decisively to the hard right in the coming years, perhaps even the far right in some cases. I wonder how Roger will feel about it then
I think that's a poor prediction, but we will see. Orban might be gone in a few months.
Meloni is running Italy, and that's fine.
In any event, the rest of that is going to be decided long before any vote to rejoin, so it's a pointless hypothetical.
The newfound anti-Americanism in Europe risks leaving Ukraine in a very difficult position because it puts a different gloss on Putin's 25 year-long effort to resist US encroachment will make the option of nomalising trade with Russia start to look attractive, especially to Germany.
I am not sure what total 2 plus 2 has made there but it sure isn't 4.
Why look uniquely to a bankrupt Russia?
To be fair, I think for some industries, like internet trolling, Russia do pay premium rates.
My old company had a two day ‘event’ due to a cyber hack from Russia.
After Trump's disgusting comments on Afghanistan it is time to drop the fawning and realise he is a real threat and bully and time to call him out
No more appeasement, just take immediate action to massively increase our defence spending and form new alliances with the EU, Canada, Australia, Japan and the sane parts of the world
It seems astonishing that Trump declares a deal with Rutte over Greenland that did not include the Danes or Greenlanders agreement
I do not think Greenland or Ukraine is anywhere near settled and Trump's plans for Gaza are obscene
Jeremy Hunt was on one of the most appalling episodes of WATO I have heard. It was a real hatchet job on Starmer re: Trump/ NATO. Dimond came in with his boots on to kick Starmer expecting Hunt would jump at the opportunity. But Hunt was very measured. He outlined the dilemma in Downing Street. Hunt explained that the sitting Government have to limit or at least control their personal criticism of Trump over Afghanistan because whether we like it or not we have to keep Trump sweet over Ukraine. If he takes his bat and ball home Ukraine falls.
Hunt did say even if Downing Street has to bite collective tongues anyone else can criticise to their heart's content. Which brings me back to Farage, he's been awfully quiet.
Allegedly he's on constituency business in Clacton.
Is that a euphemism? I think it should be, a tribute to Roger Helmer UKIP MEP, Roger is unavailable at the moment, he's on constituency business in a layby off the M6.
After Trump's disgusting comments on Afghanistan it is time to drop the fawning and realise he is a real threat and bully and time to call him out
No more appeasement, just take immediate action to massively increase our defence spending and form new alliances with the EU, Canada, Australia, Japan and the sane parts of the world
It seems astonishing that Trump declares a deal with Rutte over Greenland that did not include the Danes or Greenlanders agreement
I do not think Greenland or Ukraine is anywhere near settled and Trump's plans for Gaza are obscene
Jeremy Hunt was on one of the most appalling episodes of WATO I have heard. It was a real hatchet job on Starmer re: Trump/ NATO. Dimond came in with his boots on to kick Starmer expecting Hunt would jump at the opportunity. But Hunt was very measured. He outlined the dilemma in Downing Street. Hunt explained that the sitting Government have to limit or at least control their personal criticism of Trump over Afghanistan because whether we like it or not we have to keep Trump sweet over Ukraine. If he takes his bat and ball home Ukraine falls.
Hunt did say even if Downing Street has to bite collective tongues anyone else can criticise to their heart's content. Which brings me back to Farage, he's been awfully quiet.
Allegedly he's on constituency business in Clacton.
I am old enough to remember when GB News camera crews were permanently encamped in the Clacton constituency.
I haven't looked at GB News (ever); I'm relying on a report o the BBC where they said they'd tried to contact him for his his views on the Trump 'slander' but that he was, as I posted, on constituency business in Clacton. Why someone from BBC Essex can't be sent post-haste to Clacton I don't know.
Just as Trump delivered the election to Carney, it seems he could do the same in Denmark's election this year. (Though a lot can happen between now and October.)
Today's Danish opinion poll from Megafon is beyond crazy. The red bloc regains a majority and the blue bloc loses 9% of the vote since last month: 🟥 Red Bloc 51.7%, 90 seats 🟦 Blue Bloc 41.9%, 73 seats 🟪 M 6.4%, 12 seats Danish politics has completely changed in just a month. https://x.com/Gust_2319/status/2014570635582652557
This is the same Red Bloc which has supported dismantling neighbourhoods if the percentage of ethnic minorities gets too high?
Good attempt at ignoring the effect.
You’re quite the Rejoiner, I imagine
How would you vote in a new referendum if, say, Le Pen was running France, Meloni Italy, and a Merz-Afd Coalition in Germany? Plus Orban and all the rest
Because this is really quite likely. The EU is poised to shift decisively to the hard right in the coming years, perhaps even the far right in some cases. I wonder how Roger will feel about it then
I think that's a poor prediction, but we will see. Orban might be gone in a few months.
Meloni is running Italy, and that's fine.
In any event, the rest of that is going to be decided long before any vote to rejoin, so it's a pointless hypothetical.
Do you actively strive to be boring? If so, well done
So many of the issues discussed on here are about to be rendered spectacularly irrelevant by advances in technology - eg robotics
We are 1-3 years from advanced humanoid robots entering the market at scale. Think what that does to, say, defence
Eg look at the latest Unitree robot (from China). Imagine taking on that, on the battlefield. It will be tireless and relentless and be equipped with 100% accurate weapons
It will also go into factories and the like. Vast wealth will be created
And that is just one example
It's not going to change the issues we talk about.
There will still be arguments over how to distribute wealth - particularly land. There will still be arguments over who gets to be in the club (neighborhood, country, whatever), and who doesn't.
Defence is still going to take a willingness to fight, to invest, to innovate.
Everything will be different (I mean - robots! - how could it not be), but everything will be the same, regardless (I mean - humans! - how could it not be).
No, it won't change what we talk about. We'll still talk about how Leon was wrong about LLMs becoming conscious, about how Leon was wrong about Trump being great, about how Leon was wrong about what3words, about how Leon was wrong about UFOs being revealed to be aliens, about how Leon was wrong about Starmer being great...
Pretty sure Leon thinks LLMs are already sentient.
I sit back and wait for the big reveal about UFO's from the usual suspects in America (i.e. the grifters behind Skinwalker Ranch)
Young will suffer most when AI ‘tsunami’ hits jobs, says head of IMF
Kristalina Georgieva says research suggests 60% of jobs in advanced economies will be affected, with many entry-level roles wiped out
Artificial intelligence will be a “tsunami hitting the labour market”, with young people worst affected, the head of the International Monetary Fund warned the World Economic Forum on Friday.
Kristalina Georgieva told delegates in Davos that the IMF’s own research suggested there would be a big transformation of demand for skills, as the technology becomes increasingly widespread.
“We expect over the next years, in advanced economies, 60% of jobs to be affected by AI, either enhanced or eliminated or transformed – 40% globally,” she said. “This is like a tsunami hitting the labour market.”
I certainly wouldn't want to be coming out of uni now looking to be a software developer, data scientist, consultancy.
Probably needs a radical rethink of the jobs market.
Also driving jobs are likely to go too. Taxi drivers, lorry drivers, van drivers. For a lorry load up at departure, unload at arrival. Self drive.
We need a forward thinking, proactive, govt to look at the numbers going to Uni and where the jobs of the future are. That’s a lot of income tax and NI to lose.
Tesla is now demonstrating FSD from coast to coast in the USA, It is happening. Driving is disappearing. I noticed also today that insurers are HALVING their premiums for drivers that agree to let the car do the driving, as they are so much less prone to accidents. This is how economics will quickly force humans away from the steering wheel. The way humans aren’t allowed to do laser eye surgery. Safety = profit
Whatever happened to @JosiasJessop? He and I used to have enjoyable arguments on this. Did he flounce? Is he banned? I was gone and now I’m back he is nowhere
Fuck him. He flounced after you called him a beta cuck 😂😂😂😂. A beta cuck being the sort of guy who sits down to pee.
He’s one of those fragile flowers who was very keen to dish it but when he got a little back he cried like a little soy bitch (TM Steve Inman).
Nice to see you back.
As for AI we shouldn’t resist the changes but adapt. There’s an air of ‘smash the spinning Jenny’ going on.
The IMF director on AI. Middle class kids are going to be squeezed.
Automation in the eighties and nineties did the same to working class factory workers.
Do we need 50% of our youth taking degrees.
I think the danger is we are in a world were we all have jobs to pay for all the things we (a) need to live and (b) want to enjoy our lives. AI/robots/etc is genuinely a threat to jobs but...
In the past we dreamed of a world of leisure, but it seemed no-one really thought through how it would work.
Just as Trump delivered the election to Carney, it seems he could do the same in Denmark's election this year. (Though a lot can happen between now and October.)
Today's Danish opinion poll from Megafon is beyond crazy. The red bloc regains a majority and the blue bloc loses 9% of the vote since last month: 🟥 Red Bloc 51.7%, 90 seats 🟦 Blue Bloc 41.9%, 73 seats 🟪 M 6.4%, 12 seats Danish politics has completely changed in just a month. https://x.com/Gust_2319/status/2014570635582652557
This is the same Red Bloc which has supported dismantling neighbourhoods if the percentage of ethnic minorities gets too high?
Good attempt at ignoring the effect.
You’re quite the Rejoiner, I imagine
How would you vote in a new referendum if, say, Le Pen was running France, Meloni Italy, and a Merz-Afd Coalition in Germany? Plus Orban and all the rest
Because this is really quite likely. The EU is poised to shift decisively to the hard right in the coming years, perhaps even the far right in some cases. I wonder how Roger will feel about it then
I think that's a poor prediction, but we will see. Orban might be gone in a few months.
Meloni is running Italy, and that's fine.
In any event, the rest of that is going to be decided long before any vote to rejoin, so it's a pointless hypothetical.
Do you actively strive to be boring? If so, well done
As you are deliberately picking fights, I'm guessing for all you boasting about the weather in Ladyboy central, you are rather bored.
Just as Trump delivered the election to Carney, it seems he could do the same in Denmark's election this year. (Though a lot can happen between now and October.)
Today's Danish opinion poll from Megafon is beyond crazy. The red bloc regains a majority and the blue bloc loses 9% of the vote since last month: 🟥 Red Bloc 51.7%, 90 seats 🟦 Blue Bloc 41.9%, 73 seats 🟪 M 6.4%, 12 seats Danish politics has completely changed in just a month. https://x.com/Gust_2319/status/2014570635582652557
This is the same Red Bloc which has supported dismantling neighbourhoods if the percentage of ethnic minorities gets too high?
Good attempt at ignoring the effect.
You’re quite the Rejoiner, I imagine
How would you vote in a new referendum if, say, Le Pen was running France, Meloni Italy, and a Merz-Afd Coalition in Germany? Plus Orban and all the rest
Because this is really quite likely. The EU is poised to shift decisively to the hard right in the coming years, perhaps even the far right in some cases. I wonder how Roger will feel about it then
I think that's a poor prediction, but we will see. Orban might be gone in a few months.
Meloni is running Italy, and that's fine.
In any event, the rest of that is going to be decided long before any vote to rejoin, so it's a pointless hypothetical.
Do you actively strive to be boring? If so, well done
Young will suffer most when AI ‘tsunami’ hits jobs, says head of IMF
Kristalina Georgieva says research suggests 60% of jobs in advanced economies will be affected, with many entry-level roles wiped out
Artificial intelligence will be a “tsunami hitting the labour market”, with young people worst affected, the head of the International Monetary Fund warned the World Economic Forum on Friday.
Kristalina Georgieva told delegates in Davos that the IMF’s own research suggested there would be a big transformation of demand for skills, as the technology becomes increasingly widespread.
“We expect over the next years, in advanced economies, 60% of jobs to be affected by AI, either enhanced or eliminated or transformed – 40% globally,” she said. “This is like a tsunami hitting the labour market.”
I certainly wouldn't want to be coming out of uni now looking to be a software developer, data scientist, consultancy.
Probably needs a radical rethink of the jobs market.
Also driving jobs are likely to go too. Taxi drivers, lorry drivers, van drivers. For a lorry load up at departure, unload at arrival. Self drive.
We need a forward thinking, proactive, govt to look at the numbers going to Uni and where the jobs of the future are. That’s a lot of income tax and NI to lose.
Tesla is now demonstrating FSD from coast to coast in the USA, It is happening. Driving is disappearing. I noticed also today that insurers are HALVING their premiums for drivers that agree to let the car do the driving, as they are so much less prone to accidents. This is how economics will quickly force humans away from the steering wheel. The way humans aren’t allowed to do laser eye surgery. Safety = profit
Whatever happened to @JosiasJessop? He and I used to have enjoyable arguments on this. Did he flounce? Is he banned? I was gone and now I’m back he is nowhere
Fuck him. He flounced after you called him a beta cuck 😂😂😂😂. A beta cuck being the sort of guy who sits down to pee.
He’s one of those fragile flowers who was very keen to dish it but when he got a little back he cried like a little soy bitch (TM Steve Inman).
Nice to see you back.
As for AI we shouldn’t resist the changes but adapt. There’s an air of ‘smash the spinning Jenny’ going on.
The IMF director on AI. Middle class kids are going to be squeezed.
Automation in the eighties and nineties did the same to working class factory workers.
Do we need 50% of our youth taking degrees.
Ah, that’s a shame. He could be an arse, and very snowflakey, nonetheless I don’t like seeing PBers go, especially veterans. And he was genuinely interesting and insightful, on his best subjects
The old timers are part of the PB folk collective memory. I hope he returns
I agree entirely with you on the question of uni degrees, I hesitate to go further as I’m not sure if I am still banned from talking about THAT
Whatevs. Now I’m off to watch the last hour of One Battle After Another. It’s pretty good but jeeez if this is one of the “best movies of the year” Hollywood is in a tough place
Young will suffer most when AI ‘tsunami’ hits jobs, says head of IMF
Kristalina Georgieva says research suggests 60% of jobs in advanced economies will be affected, with many entry-level roles wiped out
Artificial intelligence will be a “tsunami hitting the labour market”, with young people worst affected, the head of the International Monetary Fund warned the World Economic Forum on Friday.
Kristalina Georgieva told delegates in Davos that the IMF’s own research suggested there would be a big transformation of demand for skills, as the technology becomes increasingly widespread.
“We expect over the next years, in advanced economies, 60% of jobs to be affected by AI, either enhanced or eliminated or transformed – 40% globally,” she said. “This is like a tsunami hitting the labour market.”
I certainly wouldn't want to be coming out of uni now looking to be a software developer, data scientist, consultancy.
Probably needs a radical rethink of the jobs market.
Also driving jobs are likely to go too. Taxi drivers, lorry drivers, van drivers. For a lorry load up at departure, unload at arrival. Self drive.
We need a forward thinking, proactive, govt to look at the numbers going to Uni and where the jobs of the future are. That’s a lot of income tax and NI to lose.
Tesla is now demonstrating FSD from coast to coast in the USA, It is happening. Driving is disappearing. I noticed also today that insurers are HALVING their premiums for drivers that agree to let the car do the driving, as they are so much less prone to accidents. This is how economics will quickly force humans away from the steering wheel. The way humans aren’t allowed to do laser eye surgery. Safety = profit
Whatever happened to @JosiasJessop? He and I used to have enjoyable arguments on this. Did he flounce? Is he banned? I was gone and now I’m back he is nowhere
Fuck him. He flounced after you called him a beta cuck 😂😂😂😂. A beta cuck being the sort of guy who sits down to pee.
He’s one of those fragile flowers who was very keen to dish it but when he got a little back he cried like a little soy bitch (TM Steve Inman).
Nice to see you back.
As for AI we shouldn’t resist the changes but adapt. There’s an air of ‘smash the spinning Jenny’ going on.
The IMF director on AI. Middle class kids are going to be squeezed.
Automation in the eighties and nineties did the same to working class factory workers.
Do we need 50% of our youth taking degrees.
I think the danger is we are in a world were we all have jobs to pay for all the things we (a) need to live and (b) want to enjoy our lives. AI/robots/etc is genuinely a threat to jobs but...
In the past we dreamed of a world of leisure, but it seemed no-one really thought through how it would work.
Indeed and if we have UBI where does the money come from to fund it ?
You cannot just print it and if you apply an AI tax the businesses that can will simply decamp.
The big AI companies promised us that 2025 would be “the year of the AI agents.” It turned out to be the year of talking about AI agents, and kicking the can for that transformational moment to 2026 or maybe later. But what if the answer to the question “When will our lives be fully automated by generative AI robots that perform our tasks for us and basically run the world?” is, like that New Yorker cartoon, “How about never?”
That was basically the message of a paper published without much fanfare some months ago, smack in the middle of the overhyped year of “agentic AI.” Entitled “Hallucination Stations: On Some Basic Limitations of Transformer-Based Language Models,” it purports to mathematically show that “LLMs are incapable of carrying out computational and agentic tasks beyond a certain complexity.” Though the science is beyond me, the authors—a former SAP CTO who studied AI under one of the field’s founding intellects, John McCarthy, and his teenage prodigy son—punctured the vision of agentic paradise with the certainty of mathematics. Even reasoning models that go beyond the pure word-prediction process of LLMs, they say, won’t fix the problem.
Kemi condemns Trump's careless talk, saying we need a strong NATO, and asks for Starmer to seek a retraction
Perhaps right, but a bit pointless. What she should be doing is working out how on earth the Tories are going to be able to afford the defence spending we need. Then, with a plan in hand, making it clear that Starmer needs to do more than talk.
Being the official opposition isn't just about criticism.
So whilst I think she's doing well, it isn't enough in the current circumstances.
So many of the issues discussed on here are about to be rendered spectacularly irrelevant by advances in technology - eg robotics
We are 1-3 years from advanced humanoid robots entering the market at scale. Think what that does to, say, defence
Eg look at the latest Unitree robot (from China). Imagine taking on that, on the battlefield. It will be tireless and relentless and be equipped with 100% accurate weapons
It will also go into factories and the like. Vast wealth will be created
And that is just one example
It's not going to change the issues we talk about.
There will still be arguments over how to distribute wealth - particularly land. There will still be arguments over who gets to be in the club (neighborhood, country, whatever), and who doesn't.
Defence is still going to take a willingness to fight, to invest, to innovate.
Everything will be different (I mean - robots! - how could it not be), but everything will be the same, regardless (I mean - humans! - how could it not be).
No, it won't change what we talk about. We'll still talk about how Leon was wrong about LLMs becoming conscious, about how Leon was wrong about Trump being great, about how Leon was wrong about what3words, about how Leon was wrong about UFOs being revealed to be aliens, about how Leon was wrong about Starmer being great...
And about Covid would be, to quote, "contagious but essentially benign"
COVID was essentially benign for millions considering how many people needed to be tested to see if they even had it..🤨
Young will suffer most when AI ‘tsunami’ hits jobs, says head of IMF
Kristalina Georgieva says research suggests 60% of jobs in advanced economies will be affected, with many entry-level roles wiped out
Artificial intelligence will be a “tsunami hitting the labour market”, with young people worst affected, the head of the International Monetary Fund warned the World Economic Forum on Friday.
Kristalina Georgieva told delegates in Davos that the IMF’s own research suggested there would be a big transformation of demand for skills, as the technology becomes increasingly widespread.
“We expect over the next years, in advanced economies, 60% of jobs to be affected by AI, either enhanced or eliminated or transformed – 40% globally,” she said. “This is like a tsunami hitting the labour market.”
I certainly wouldn't want to be coming out of uni now looking to be a software developer, data scientist, consultancy.
Probably needs a radical rethink of the jobs market.
Also driving jobs are likely to go too. Taxi drivers, lorry drivers, van drivers. For a lorry load up at departure, unload at arrival. Self drive.
We need a forward thinking, proactive, govt to look at the numbers going to Uni and where the jobs of the future are. That’s a lot of income tax and NI to lose.
Tesla is now demonstrating FSD from coast to coast in the USA, It is happening. Driving is disappearing. I noticed also today that insurers are HALVING their premiums for drivers that agree to let the car do the driving, as they are so much less prone to accidents. This is how economics will quickly force humans away from the steering wheel. The way humans aren’t allowed to do laser eye surgery. Safety = profit
Whatever happened to @JosiasJessop? He and I used to have enjoyable arguments on this. Did he flounce? Is he banned? I was gone and now I’m back he is nowhere
Fuck him. He flounced after you called him a beta cuck 😂😂😂😂. A beta cuck being the sort of guy who sits down to pee.
He’s one of those fragile flowers who was very keen to dish it but when he got a little back he cried like a little soy bitch (TM Steve Inman).
Nice to see you back.
As for AI we shouldn’t resist the changes but adapt. There’s an air of ‘smash the spinning Jenny’ going on.
The IMF director on AI. Middle class kids are going to be squeezed.
Automation in the eighties and nineties did the same to working class factory workers.
Do we need 50% of our youth taking degrees.
I think the danger is we are in a world were we all have jobs to pay for all the things we (a) need to live and (b) want to enjoy our lives. AI/robots/etc is genuinely a threat to jobs but...
In the past we dreamed of a world of leisure, but it seemed no-one really thought through how it would work.
Compared with former times we have loads of leisure. many would like a bit more. We also have loads more wealth. We also, of course, have loads more automation.
In a functioning economy for private enterprise (from corner shop to Nvidia) to flourish there has to be widespread prosperity in order that Mars Bars and 10 trillion chips can be bought and sold. Machinery neither earns nor spends.
Private enterprise intends to flourish. In well functioning societies, it operates alongside the state and states to ensure that the functioning world is a job producing scheme, and to some extend a job creation scheme.
'Prosperous neighbours make good customers' applies to the local petrol station and shop, and applies to Amazon and Microsoft. AI will not alter this fundamental truth, pace Leon, any more than electricity and the industrial revolution did.
O/T - my kids have accounts with Nationwide from when they were little. I've just popped in to the branch for the firat time in 8 years to do some admin. It was brilliant. I'd forgotten how good in-person banking was. So much more straightforward and less stressful. Why don't other banks offer this? (Well I know they still sort of do but actual branches are few and far between.)
We were shuffling money around into various savings accounts after a house sale recently. Nightmare online due to the fraud/laundering issues. Gave up and drove to a branch and they did it all for us. Charming about it too.
The big AI companies promised us that 2025 would be “the year of the AI agents.” It turned out to be the year of talking about AI agents, and kicking the can for that transformational moment to 2026 or maybe later. But what if the answer to the question “When will our lives be fully automated by generative AI robots that perform our tasks for us and basically run the world?” is, like that New Yorker cartoon, “How about never?”
That was basically the message of a paper published without much fanfare some months ago, smack in the middle of the overhyped year of “agentic AI.” Entitled “Hallucination Stations: On Some Basic Limitations of Transformer-Based Language Models,” it purports to mathematically show that “LLMs are incapable of carrying out computational and agentic tasks beyond a certain complexity.” Though the science is beyond me, the authors—a former SAP CTO who studied AI under one of the field’s founding intellects, John McCarthy, and his teenage prodigy son—punctured the vision of agentic paradise with the certainty of mathematics. Even reasoning models that go beyond the pure word-prediction process of LLMs, they say, won’t fix the problem.
The reason it hasn't got any fanfare is it is a 7 page thought experiment dumped on Arxiv i.e. not peer reviewed and increasingly lots of garbage gets put up there. It has a massive 2 citations. There are no experiments to justify their argument, it is simply an discussion piece that they think it isn't possible to have LLMs to verify their work beyond a certain level of complexity. Despite the author that is not a paper that should be accepted to any top tier conference.
There was actually a more recent deepseek paper that did find the current way agentic LLMs are being operated is wrong, where they actually did science.
The newfound anti-Americanism in Europe risks leaving Ukraine in a very difficult position because it puts a different gloss on Putin's 25 year-long effort to resist US encroachment will make the option of nomalising trade with Russia start to look attractive, especially to Germany.
I think it is anti-Europeanism in the US that is the issue at hand.
Well, if he does he should go fully togged as King of Canada. And wear a golden maple leaf in his lapel. From a news report a little time ago:
"King Charles III wearing Canadian military honors aboard a British Royal Navy aircraft carrier went viral after Donald Trump repeated that he would like to annex Canada.
"Charles, who is king of Canada as well as Britain, stepped onto HMS Prince of Wales on Tuesday, a day after discussing sovereignty with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau at a meeting in London.
"During the visit, he wore several Canadian military honors, including the Canadian Forces' Decoration, the Order of Canada and the Canadian Order of Military Merit."
So many of the issues discussed on here are about to be rendered spectacularly irrelevant by advances in technology - eg robotics
We are 1-3 years from advanced humanoid robots entering the market at scale. Think what that does to, say, defence
Eg look at the latest Unitree robot (from China). Imagine taking on that, on the battlefield. It will be tireless and relentless and be equipped with 100% accurate weapons
It will also go into factories and the like. Vast wealth will be created
And that is just one example
Defence is why we are 100% NOT about to get advanced humanoid robots entering the market. Musk even described the Tesla Robototron as his "robot army". No way are autonomous robots making it out into the general pubic. Factory use? Far better to use a specific robot for a specific task as we already do.
Humanoid droids on the battlefield? Maybe. Your own persona robototron that could be remote programmed to kill us all? No chance
Are you serious?
If governments have a choice between seeing a young man of 25 die on a battlefield, or a robot costing 25k getting temporarily disabled, what will they choose? What will voters prefer? Which makes more sense morally, financially, emotionally, politically?
Of course armies will become robot armies, and this is a GOOD thing. Humans will stop dying young in absurd battles
You gullible enough to think teh robots will only kill other robots, whole point is to kill the enemy, FFS.
So many of the issues discussed on here are about to be rendered spectacularly irrelevant by advances in technology - eg robotics
We are 1-3 years from advanced humanoid robots entering the market at scale. Think what that does to, say, defence
Eg look at the latest Unitree robot (from China). Imagine taking on that, on the battlefield. It will be tireless and relentless and be equipped with 100% accurate weapons
It will also go into factories and the like. Vast wealth will be created
And that is just one example
It's not going to change the issues we talk about.
There will still be arguments over how to distribute wealth - particularly land. There will still be arguments over who gets to be in the club (neighborhood, country, whatever), and who doesn't.
Defence is still going to take a willingness to fight, to invest, to innovate.
Everything will be different (I mean - robots! - how could it not be), but everything will be the same, regardless (I mean - humans! - how could it not be).
No, it won't change what we talk about. We'll still talk about how Leon was wrong about LLMs becoming conscious, about how Leon was wrong about Trump being great, about how Leon was wrong about what3words, about how Leon was wrong about UFOs being revealed to be aliens, about how Leon was wrong about Starmer being great...
...how Leon was wrong about Truss surprising on the upside...
So many of the issues discussed on here are about to be rendered spectacularly irrelevant by advances in technology - eg robotics
We are 1-3 years from advanced humanoid robots entering the market at scale. Think what that does to, say, defence
Eg look at the latest Unitree robot (from China). Imagine taking on that, on the battlefield. It will be tireless and relentless and be equipped with 100% accurate weapons
It will also go into factories and the like. Vast wealth will be created
And that is just one example
It's not going to change the issues we talk about.
There will still be arguments over how to distribute wealth - particularly land. There will still be arguments over who gets to be in the club (neighborhood, country, whatever), and who doesn't.
Defence is still going to take a willingness to fight, to invest, to innovate.
Everything will be different (I mean - robots! - how could it not be), but everything will be the same, regardless (I mean - humans! - how could it not be).
No, it won't change what we talk about. We'll still talk about how Leon was wrong about LLMs becoming conscious, about how Leon was wrong about Trump being great, about how Leon was wrong about what3words, about how Leon was wrong about UFOs being revealed to be aliens, about how Leon was wrong about Starmer being great...
And about Covid would be, to quote, "contagious but essentially benign"
COVID was essentially benign for millions considering how many people needed to be tested to see if they even had it..🤨
Just as Trump delivered the election to Carney, it seems he could do the same in Denmark's election this year. (Though a lot can happen between now and October.)
Today's Danish opinion poll from Megafon is beyond crazy. The red bloc regains a majority and the blue bloc loses 9% of the vote since last month: 🟥 Red Bloc 51.7%, 90 seats 🟦 Blue Bloc 41.9%, 73 seats 🟪 M 6.4%, 12 seats Danish politics has completely changed in just a month. https://x.com/Gust_2319/status/2014570635582652557
This is the same Red Bloc which has supported dismantling neighbourhoods if the percentage of ethnic minorities gets too high?
Good attempt at ignoring the effect.
You’re quite the Rejoiner, I imagine
How would you vote in a new referendum if, say, Le Pen was running France, Meloni Italy, and a Merz-Afd Coalition in Germany? Plus Orban and all the rest
Because this is really quite likely. The EU is poised to shift decisively to the hard right in the coming years, perhaps even the far right in some cases. I wonder how Roger will feel about it then
I think that's a poor prediction, but we will see. Orban might be gone in a few months.
Meloni is running Italy, and that's fine.
In any event, the rest of that is going to be decided long before any vote to rejoin, so it's a pointless hypothetical.
Do you actively strive to be boring? If so, well done
'Cause we were never being boring We had too much time to find for ourselves And we were never being boring We dressed up and fought, then thought, "Make amends" And we were never holding back or worried that Time would come to an end
Kemi condemns Trump's careless talk, saying we need a strong NATO, and asks for Starmer to seek a retraction
I thought he had.
Nigel has been very quiet. Or do we think Starmer has overstepped the mark condemning Trump and thus upsetting the Leader of the Free World? And one for William, should Starmer be punished by MAGA for his treason?
Powerful and much needed framing from Andy Burnham in the Guardian..should be repeated every day by ministers or they will find they are blamed for ‘broken Britain’: “If the question at the centre of British politics is “who broke Britain?”, let’s be clear and unequivocal. The four horsemen of Britain’s apocalypse are deindustrialisation, privatisation, austerity and Brexit. In my time in politics, there has been a tendency for too many in Labour to accept too much of the framing of the right, but we must firmly reject its narrative and call it out in no uncertain terms. Figures on the British right talk of taking back control, but people can see that they are the ones who gave it away.”
If Labour are to win the next election we MUST rejoin the EU. Starmer or Burnham must batter it through. No Referendums. Just a huge parlianentary majority. The full fat version including Schengen. We must put ourselves at the centre of Europe.
Labour have nothing to lose. They are sleepwalking to possible defeat at the hands of Farage. There is no form of REJOIN that would be a worse fate for this country than that.
Rejoin plus Euro means zero chance of Labour re election
Nobody is suggesting the Euro
Roger is (“…full fat version…”) in the comment HYUFD is replying to!
The reality of Rejoin is
1) We would be asked to follow the process that all applicants to the are do. The politics of Europe will not slow a special exemption - too many countries would get upset 2) So we would be signing up to “full fat” Europe 3) This means signing up for the Euro. Since this would remove a huge chunk of the mucking around with the economy the politicians love, this would be a matter of I) Signing up to the Euro joining process II) Never actually meeting he requirements and joining
The number of countries that want Britain to join the Euro is zero. They've got enough problems already without adding a country with a weird housing thing going on that's not really into it.
It's perfectly possible that the application would just get held up forever, and it's also possible that some countries would say they don't think it'll last and they're not going to play the hokey cokey but the Euro wouldn't be the blocker.
It would also be in the US and Russian interests to stop the UK from rejoining so Orban might put the blockers on it (and maybe Fico too) and then you get down to the usual EU shenanigans of wanting a pound of flesh from the UK for cooperation even when it’s in the EU’s benefit to cooperate so no doubt the French making silly fishing demands and Spain wanting to change Gibraltar’s status.
This is the greatest tragedy of Brexit: that rejoining will be much more difficult and painful than it would have been to remain. No taking it back to the shop if it didn't fit.
It won’t be difficult, it will be impossible
I’ve been through this before, but one more time
It needs a government to sell Rejoin in an election and then win the election with that mandate. Then they must call the referendum, and win that. All this time very awkward questions about the euro and Schengen and fisheries and the City and much else will crop up, making that referendum suddenly seem a lot more difficult to win than first appeared. An unpopular government will lose it. A popular government will think “why bother taking the risk, we’re popular, why spend all that time and capital, let’s forget the referendum, thing”
So we won’t even get as far as a referendum. And even if we did and it was won, we would then have 5-10 years of painful painful negotiation with the EU to establish terms, during which any of 28 countries could simply veto, just for the fuck of it. This would consume a decade of British politics, with no guarantee of success at the end. The Rejoiners who glibly say “oh they want us back” are as foolishly complacent as the Brexiteers who farcically claimed “it will be the easiest deal in the world”
No sane UK government will ever attempt Rejoin, an insane government would fuck it up. Ergo, it is never going to happen
Sorry
You're bizarrely wrong about this due to a failure of imagination.
Back in the deep mists of time the Lib Dems were one of the first people to propose an in/out referendum on the EU because they couldn't conceive that out would win. They completely failed to imagine the way in which public opinion might be shifted and the part they might play in that.
So it is with Rejoin. You describe the politics of the status quo. But you fail to imagine how the politics would be different were public opinion also radically different, and the EU itself changed.
For sure, most advocates of Rejoin also lack the imagination to conceive of the work they will need to do to achieve it, so I certainly don't think that Rejoin is likely.
But it's not hard to imagine it happening.
I’ve sketched out the huge and many obstacles. You have not shown how these will be overcome, you’ve just said “”nah, it is easily done”
How?
I didn't say it was easy. I said you had to change people's minds. That's hard, but the right-wing have done it a fair bit over the last four or five decades. It happens.
So your detailed explanation of how we get past all the political obstacles to Rejoin is: “it happens”
And posters wonder why PB often seems eerily quiet, these days
You're such a prick.
If I knew the details of how to change people's minds I'd be out there doing it.
It's not a question of some sort of political trick or machinations. It's hard. It takes a long time. It has to be a bigger change than the superficial change in Rejoin/Stay Out voting intention we've seen so far.
I'm sure it would be possible to have an interesting discussion about the details of this with various people that disagree with me on here. But not you, because you're a prick.
The newfound anti-Americanism in Europe risks leaving Ukraine in a very difficult position because it puts a different gloss on Putin's 25 year-long effort to resist US encroachment will make the option of nomalising trade with Russia start to look attractive, especially to Germany.
You think that a Europe that has decided it can't trust the US, because the US float the idea of invading Greenland, is going to suddenly decide to trust Russia, a country that has invaded multiple countries and murders civilians in cold blood.
Is this a pathetic attempt at being provocative or are you just very stupid?
Comments
He’s one of those fragile flowers who was very keen to dish it but when he got a little back he cried like a little soy bitch (TM Steve Inman).
Nice to see you back.
As for AI we shouldn’t resist the changes but adapt. There’s an air of ‘smash the spinning Jenny’ going on.
The IMF director on AI. Middle class kids are going to be squeezed.
https://x.com/marionawfal/status/2014699644681687300?s=61
Automation in the eighties and nineties did the same to working class factory workers.
Do we need 50% of our youth taking degrees.
Orban might be gone in a few months.
Meloni is running Italy, and that's fine.
In any event, the rest of that is going to be decided long before any vote to rejoin, so it's a pointless hypothetical.
They have to be good at something.
Oh those Russians.
I think it should be, a tribute to Roger Helmer UKIP MEP, Roger is unavailable at the moment, he's on constituency business in a layby off the M6.
Why someone from BBC Essex can't be sent post-haste to Clacton I don't know.
I sit back and wait for the big reveal about UFO's from the usual suspects in America (i.e. the grifters behind Skinwalker Ranch)
In the past we dreamed of a world of leisure, but it seemed no-one really thought through how it would work.
I find it discourages you.
The old timers are part of the PB folk collective memory. I hope he returns
I agree entirely with you on the question of uni degrees, I hesitate to go further as I’m not sure if I am still banned from talking about THAT
Whatevs. Now I’m off to watch the last hour of One Battle After Another. It’s pretty good but jeeez if this is one of the “best movies of the year” Hollywood is in a tough place
Later
You cannot just print it and if you apply an AI tax the businesses that can will simply decamp.
That was basically the message of a paper published without much fanfare some months ago, smack in the middle of the overhyped year of “agentic AI.” Entitled “Hallucination Stations: On Some Basic Limitations of Transformer-Based Language Models,” it purports to mathematically show that “LLMs are incapable of carrying out computational and agentic tasks beyond a certain complexity.” Though the science is beyond me, the authors—a former SAP CTO who studied AI under one of the field’s founding intellects, John McCarthy, and his teenage prodigy son—punctured the vision of agentic paradise with the certainty of mathematics. Even reasoning models that go beyond the pure word-prediction process of LLMs, they say, won’t fix the problem.
https://www.wired.com/story/ai-agents-math-doesnt-add-up/
Being the official opposition isn't just about criticism.
So whilst I think she's doing well, it isn't enough in the current circumstances.
In a functioning economy for private enterprise (from corner shop to Nvidia) to flourish there has to be widespread prosperity in order that Mars Bars and 10 trillion chips can be bought and sold. Machinery neither earns nor spends.
Private enterprise intends to flourish. In well functioning societies, it operates alongside the state and states to ensure that the functioning world is a job producing scheme, and to some extend a job creation scheme.
'Prosperous neighbours make good customers' applies to the local petrol station and shop, and applies to Amazon and Microsoft. AI will not alter this fundamental truth, pace Leon, any more than electricity and the industrial revolution did.
I still think Labour should be given much better chances of a recovery.
Former Tory councillor admits drugging and raping wife over 14-year period
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2026/jan/23/philip-young-former-tory-councillor-pleads-guilty-drugging-raping-wifeA
There was actually a more recent deepseek paper that did find the current way agentic LLMs are being operated is wrong, where they actually did science.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2026/jan/23/philip-young-former-tory-councillor-pleads-guilty-drugging-raping-wife
Enough is enough .
‘He resigned as the cabinet member for culture, regeneration and economic development on 6 May 2010 to devote more time to his family’
Too much time it would seem.
NEW THREAD
"King Charles III wearing Canadian military honors aboard a British Royal Navy aircraft carrier went viral after Donald Trump repeated that he would like to annex Canada.
"Charles, who is king of Canada as well as Britain, stepped onto HMS Prince of Wales on Tuesday, a day after discussing sovereignty with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau at a meeting in London.
"During the visit, he wore several Canadian military honors, including the Canadian Forces' Decoration, the Order of Canada and the Canadian Order of Military Merit."
We had too much time to find for ourselves
And we were never being boring
We dressed up and fought, then thought, "Make amends"
And we were never holding back or worried that
Time would come to an end
Nigel has been very quiet. Or do we think Starmer has overstepped the mark condemning Trump and thus upsetting the Leader of the Free World? And one for William, should Starmer be punished by MAGA for his treason?
If I knew the details of how to change people's minds I'd be out there doing it.
It's not a question of some sort of political trick or machinations. It's hard. It takes a long time. It has to be a bigger change than the superficial change in Rejoin/Stay Out voting intention we've seen so far.
I'm sure it would be possible to have an interesting discussion about the details of this with various people that disagree with me on here. But not you, because you're a prick.
Is this a pathetic attempt at being provocative or are you just very stupid?