Hoyle is coming across as too obsequious imo. Johnson is a prime mover in the continuing undermining / destruction of US democracy and the US constitution.
A point should have been made; an opportunity missed.
As the world is batshit crazy I was tempted not to bother. But lets do an outlier:
Number of net gains (or losses -ve) for the Dems in the House? -80 (elections suspended in zones under Martial Law) Number of net gains (or losses -ve) for the Dems in the Senate? -6 (elections suspended in states where seditious traitors were in charge of trying to rig the election) Number of MSPs won by the SNP at the Holyrood election? 60 Number of AMs won by Plaid Cymru at the Senedd election? 31 UK Party recording the largest poll lead during 2026 and by what percentage? (British Polling Council registered pollsters only). 14% Labour’s Projected National Share of the vote based on the 2026 local elections according to the BBC? 17% Number of Reform MPs on the 31st December 2026? 17 The name of the UK Prime Minister on 31st December 2026? Wes Streeting Will Andy Burnham will be an MP on 31st December 2026? Yes UK borrowing in the financial year to November 2026 (£132.3bn to November 2025). £145bn UK GDP growth in the 12 months to October 2026 (1.1% to October 2025). 0.2% Winners of the 2026 FIFA Men’s World Cup. - no winner. Tournament collapses into chaos when ICE arrests players from Senegal and shoots the manager on live TV
Interesting but of course Trump cannot suspend elections without state governor and legislature consent and nor can he send in the National Guard without Congressional approval on the grounds of war or emergency
Trump can do anything he wants. State governors will be getting arrested as well. Traitors!
State governors can also call out the State National Guards, as I said Trump cannot call out the Federal National Guard without Congressional approval. State governors also control the state police, so they certainly won't be telling them to arrest themselves, it would need the FBI
At times you do seem to be naive
The evidence is that Trump will do whatever Trump wants
Well he can't, most US police are controlled by state governors, mayors and local sheriffs in the US NOT the President. States also have their own National Guards controlled by state governors and Congress has to approve the President deploying the Federal National Guard.
The FBI is also run by its own director accountable to Congress not just POTUS
Well he can't
Well, yes he can until such time he ceases to be POTUS
@pippacrerar.bsky.social · now BREAKING: Vast new Chinese embassy complex in East London has been approved, despite security concerns.
Decision brings end - for now - to long-running saga. But local residents plan legal challenge amid concerns they could be forced out of homes, potentially delaying project by months or years.
As the world is batshit crazy I was tempted not to bother. But lets do an outlier:
Number of net gains (or losses -ve) for the Dems in the House? -80 (elections suspended in zones under Martial Law) Number of net gains (or losses -ve) for the Dems in the Senate? -6 (elections suspended in states where seditious traitors were in charge of trying to rig the election) Number of MSPs won by the SNP at the Holyrood election? 60 Number of AMs won by Plaid Cymru at the Senedd election? 31 UK Party recording the largest poll lead during 2026 and by what percentage? (British Polling Council registered pollsters only). 14% Labour’s Projected National Share of the vote based on the 2026 local elections according to the BBC? 17% Number of Reform MPs on the 31st December 2026? 17 The name of the UK Prime Minister on 31st December 2026? Wes Streeting Will Andy Burnham will be an MP on 31st December 2026? Yes UK borrowing in the financial year to November 2026 (£132.3bn to November 2025). £145bn UK GDP growth in the 12 months to October 2026 (1.1% to October 2025). 0.2% Winners of the 2026 FIFA Men’s World Cup. - no winner. Tournament collapses into chaos when ICE arrests players from Senegal and shoots the manager on live TV
Interesting but of course Trump cannot suspend elections without state governor and legislature consent and nor can he send in the National Guard without Congressional approval on the grounds of war or emergency
Trump can do anything he wants. State governors will be getting arrested as well. Traitors!
State governors can also call out the State National Guards, as I said Trump cannot call out the Federal National Guard without Congressional approval. State governors also control the state police, so they certainly won't be telling them to arrest themselves, it would need the FBI
That's all by the book. Trump ignores the book - he can send in whatever troops he likes and already has stormtroopers in theatre. State officials were immediately shut out of the Renee Good murder by DHS and the FBI.
Strong rumours that Trump will invoke the Insurrection Act today in Minnesota. He needs no authorisation and is not checked by the law or the courts or congress.
You said state governors control state police so won't "arrest themselves". Who said anything about the states? I am talking about Trump SA goons. The Insurrection Act puts state police on the side of the insurrection, so they will be shot like anyone else.
I do understand the normalcy bias. This is America so this can't be happening. But it IS happening, live, in front of your eyes.
As the world is batshit crazy I was tempted not to bother. But lets do an outlier:
Number of net gains (or losses -ve) for the Dems in the House? -80 (elections suspended in zones under Martial Law) Number of net gains (or losses -ve) for the Dems in the Senate? -6 (elections suspended in states where seditious traitors were in charge of trying to rig the election) Number of MSPs won by the SNP at the Holyrood election? 60 Number of AMs won by Plaid Cymru at the Senedd election? 31 UK Party recording the largest poll lead during 2026 and by what percentage? (British Polling Council registered pollsters only). 14% Labour’s Projected National Share of the vote based on the 2026 local elections according to the BBC? 17% Number of Reform MPs on the 31st December 2026? 17 The name of the UK Prime Minister on 31st December 2026? Wes Streeting Will Andy Burnham will be an MP on 31st December 2026? Yes UK borrowing in the financial year to November 2026 (£132.3bn to November 2025). £145bn UK GDP growth in the 12 months to October 2026 (1.1% to October 2025). 0.2% Winners of the 2026 FIFA Men’s World Cup. - no winner. Tournament collapses into chaos when ICE arrests players from Senegal and shoots the manager on live TV
Interesting but of course Trump cannot suspend elections without state governor and legislature consent and nor can he send in the National Guard without Congressional approval on the grounds of war or emergency
Trump can do anything he wants. State governors will be getting arrested as well. Traitors!
State governors can also call out the State National Guards, as I said Trump cannot call out the Federal National Guard without Congressional approval. State governors also control the state police, so they certainly won't be telling them to arrest themselves, it would need the FBI
If the US does descend into intra-Nation violence, then it's unlikely any of these groups will remain as coherent one-side-or-another blocks. The Minnesota Fraternal Order of Police has already backed ICE over Renee Good - do you think those members will back Minnesota, the Federal government, or just clear off back home to their families?
As the world is batshit crazy I was tempted not to bother. But lets do an outlier:
Number of net gains (or losses -ve) for the Dems in the House? -80 (elections suspended in zones under Martial Law) Number of net gains (or losses -ve) for the Dems in the Senate? -6 (elections suspended in states where seditious traitors were in charge of trying to rig the election) Number of MSPs won by the SNP at the Holyrood election? 60 Number of AMs won by Plaid Cymru at the Senedd election? 31 UK Party recording the largest poll lead during 2026 and by what percentage? (British Polling Council registered pollsters only). 14% Labour’s Projected National Share of the vote based on the 2026 local elections according to the BBC? 17% Number of Reform MPs on the 31st December 2026? 17 The name of the UK Prime Minister on 31st December 2026? Wes Streeting Will Andy Burnham will be an MP on 31st December 2026? Yes UK borrowing in the financial year to November 2026 (£132.3bn to November 2025). £145bn UK GDP growth in the 12 months to October 2026 (1.1% to October 2025). 0.2% Winners of the 2026 FIFA Men’s World Cup. - no winner. Tournament collapses into chaos when ICE arrests players from Senegal and shoots the manager on live TV
Interesting but of course Trump cannot suspend elections without state governor and legislature consent and nor can he send in the National Guard without Congressional approval on the grounds of war or emergency
Trump can do anything he wants. State governors will be getting arrested as well. Traitors!
State governors can also call out the State National Guards, as I said Trump cannot call out the Federal National Guard without Congressional approval. State governors also control the state police, so they certainly won't be telling them to arrest themselves, it would need the FBI
At times you do seem to be naive
The evidence is that Trump will do whatever Trump wants
Well he can't, most US police are controlled by state governors, mayors and local sheriffs in the US NOT the President. States also have their own National Guards controlled by state governors and Congress has to approve the President deploying the Federal National Guard.
The FBI is also run by its own director accountable to Congress not just POTUS
Well he can't
Well, yes he can until such time he ceases to be POTUS
Go away and read some facts about the US law enforcement system before posting again please BigG.
The President does NOT control the US police, state governors and mayors and sheriffs do. The President does not even have full control of the FBI and Federal National Guard, Congress also has oversight as does the FBI Director.
The President does control the army but by that point if he sent in the army against half his nation the US would be headed for a second civil war anyway if Congress had not impeached and convicted him and removed him from office first (and Congress could cut off funds for the army too)
European officials should brace for sharp remarks from Trump at the Davos forum
Axios reports that Trump is heading to Davos more aggressive and ambitious than ever.
“Trump will arrive in Davos feeling more confident than ever in his ability to shape global events, and increasingly willing to pressure and publicly dress down anyone who stands in his way.
A senior US official warned that participants of the annual gathering of the global elite should prepare for harsh and offensive comments when Trump takes the stage on Wednesday.”
This irreversible decision is a disaster for the nation. Starmer is betraying the country.
There is a limit to how many enemies we can afford to make. Given that we are virtually at war with Russia, are being threatened by the US and have generally pissed of the EU with our Brexit shenanigans, maintaining at least a cordial relationship with China is probably not a bad thing.
One of the reasons Britain is in a bit of a mess in terms of foreign relations is that we haven't been realistic about them. China is an adversary who sees us as an obstacle to their desire to remake the world in their interests. They do not become any less of a threat to Britain just because the US stops being a reliable ally.
That said, MI5 seem to be very relaxed about the Chinese Embassy, so pressure on the British government to up their game should probably be targeted at more important issues.
@pippacrerar.bsky.social · now BREAKING: Vast new Chinese embassy complex in East London has been approved, despite security concerns.
Decision brings end - for now - to long-running saga. But local residents plan legal challenge amid concerns they could be forced out of homes, potentially delaying project by months or years.
Our secret weapon: planning law.
“Yes you can have your embassy, it’s just that the process will last 230 years”.
As the world is batshit crazy I was tempted not to bother. But lets do an outlier:
Number of net gains (or losses -ve) for the Dems in the House? -80 (elections suspended in zones under Martial Law) Number of net gains (or losses -ve) for the Dems in the Senate? -6 (elections suspended in states where seditious traitors were in charge of trying to rig the election) Number of MSPs won by the SNP at the Holyrood election? 60 Number of AMs won by Plaid Cymru at the Senedd election? 31 UK Party recording the largest poll lead during 2026 and by what percentage? (British Polling Council registered pollsters only). 14% Labour’s Projected National Share of the vote based on the 2026 local elections according to the BBC? 17% Number of Reform MPs on the 31st December 2026? 17 The name of the UK Prime Minister on 31st December 2026? Wes Streeting Will Andy Burnham will be an MP on 31st December 2026? Yes UK borrowing in the financial year to November 2026 (£132.3bn to November 2025). £145bn UK GDP growth in the 12 months to October 2026 (1.1% to October 2025). 0.2% Winners of the 2026 FIFA Men’s World Cup. - no winner. Tournament collapses into chaos when ICE arrests players from Senegal and shoots the manager on live TV
Interesting but of course Trump cannot suspend elections without state governor and legislature consent and nor can he send in the National Guard without Congressional approval on the grounds of war or emergency
Trump can do anything he wants. State governors will be getting arrested as well. Traitors!
State governors can also call out the State National Guards, as I said Trump cannot call out the Federal National Guard without Congressional approval. State governors also control the state police, so they certainly won't be telling them to arrest themselves, it would need the FBI
At times you do seem to be naive
The evidence is that Trump will do whatever Trump wants
Well he can't, most US police are controlled by state governors, mayors and local sheriffs in the US NOT the President. States also have their own National Guards controlled by state governors and Congress has to approve the President deploying the Federal National Guard.
The FBI is also run by its own director accountable to Congress not just POTUS
Well he can't
Well, yes he can until such time he ceases to be POTUS
Go away and read some facts about the US law enforcement system before posting again please BigG.
The President does NOT control the US police, state governors and mayors and sheriffs do. The President does not even have full control of the FBI and Federal National Guard, Congress also has oversight as does the FBI Director.
The President does control the army but by that point if he sent in the army against half his nation the US would be headed for a second civil war anyway if Congress had not impeached and convicted him and removed him from office first (and Congress could cut off funds for the army too)
The problem is that the facts about US law are being re-imagined as we type. What should be true and what will be true are not the same.
"The SNP are not legal, decent, honest and truthful. Rather they’ve been found to be illegal, indecent, dishonest and untruthful. Their malignant influence has turned Scotland into a mafia state. They are unfit to be entrusted with something as precious as independence."
'Wage growth in the UK eased to 4.5% between September and November, official figures suggest, following a sharp slowdown in private sector pay increases.
The pace of pay growth for those employed by private businesses slowed to the lowest rate in five years, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
In contrast, public sector workers saw their wages jump but, the ONS said, this was likely due to pay rises being awarded earlier than in the previous year.
Meanwhile, the number of people on company payrolls continued to fall - down 135,000 in the three months to November - with a particular decline in shops and hospitality....The ONS data showed a stark contrast between public and private pay growth in the three months to November.
Annual average public sector pay growth was 7.9% compared to 3.6% for the private sector.'
Meanwhile while the usual Trump hand wringing continues on here about a nation we don't even live in, the fact wage growth and employment has collapsed in the UK and public sector pay growth is double private sector pay growth under this Labour government goes without comment....
'Wage growth in the UK eased to 4.5% between September and November, official figures suggest, following a sharp slowdown in private sector pay increases.
The pace of pay growth for those employed by private businesses slowed to the lowest rate in five years, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
In contrast, public sector workers saw their wages jump but, the ONS said, this was likely due to pay rises being awarded earlier than in the previous year.
Meanwhile, the number of people on company payrolls continued to fall - down 135,000 in the three months to November - with a particular decline in shops and hospitality....The ONS data showed a stark contrast between public and private pay growth in the three months to November.
Annual average public sector pay growth was 7.9% compared to 3.6% for the private sector.'
Meanwhile while the usual Trump hand wringing continues on here in a nation we don't even live in, the fact wage growth and employment has collapsed in the UK and public sector growth is double private sector growth under this Labour government goes without comment....
The numbers speak for themselves. What else is there to say?
European officials should brace for sharp remarks from Trump at the Davos forum
Axios reports that Trump is heading to Davos more aggressive and ambitious than ever.
“Trump will arrive in Davos feeling more confident than ever in his ability to shape global events, and increasingly willing to pressure and publicly dress down anyone who stands in his way.
A senior US official warned that participants of the annual gathering of the global elite should prepare for harsh and offensive comments when Trump takes the stage on Wednesday.”
As the world is batshit crazy I was tempted not to bother. But lets do an outlier:
Number of net gains (or losses -ve) for the Dems in the House? -80 (elections suspended in zones under Martial Law) Number of net gains (or losses -ve) for the Dems in the Senate? -6 (elections suspended in states where seditious traitors were in charge of trying to rig the election) Number of MSPs won by the SNP at the Holyrood election? 60 Number of AMs won by Plaid Cymru at the Senedd election? 31 UK Party recording the largest poll lead during 2026 and by what percentage? (British Polling Council registered pollsters only). 14% Labour’s Projected National Share of the vote based on the 2026 local elections according to the BBC? 17% Number of Reform MPs on the 31st December 2026? 17 The name of the UK Prime Minister on 31st December 2026? Wes Streeting Will Andy Burnham will be an MP on 31st December 2026? Yes UK borrowing in the financial year to November 2026 (£132.3bn to November 2025). £145bn UK GDP growth in the 12 months to October 2026 (1.1% to October 2025). 0.2% Winners of the 2026 FIFA Men’s World Cup. - no winner. Tournament collapses into chaos when ICE arrests players from Senegal and shoots the manager on live TV
Interesting but of course Trump cannot suspend elections without state governor and legislature consent and nor can he send in the National Guard without Congressional approval on the grounds of war or emergency
Trump can do anything he wants. State governors will be getting arrested as well. Traitors!
State governors can also call out the State National Guards, as I said Trump cannot call out the Federal National Guard without Congressional approval. State governors also control the state police, so they certainly won't be telling them to arrest themselves, it would need the FBI
At times you do seem to be naive
The evidence is that Trump will do whatever Trump wants
Well he can't, most US police are controlled by state governors, mayors and local sheriffs in the US NOT the President. States also have their own National Guards controlled by state governors and Congress has to approve the President deploying the Federal National Guard.
The FBI is also run by its own director accountable to Congress not just POTUS
Well he can't
Well, yes he can until such time he ceases to be POTUS
Go away and read some facts about the US law enforcement system before posting again please BigG.
The President does NOT control the US police, state governors and mayors and sheriffs do. The President does not even have full control of the FBI and Federal National Guard, Congress also has oversight as does the FBI Director.
The President does control the army but by that point if he sent in the army against half his nation the US would be headed for a second civil war anyway if Congress had not impeached and convicted him and removed him from office first (and Congress could cut off funds for the army too)
'Wage growth in the UK eased to 4.5% between September and November, official figures suggest, following a sharp slowdown in private sector pay increases.
The pace of pay growth for those employed by private businesses slowed to the lowest rate in five years, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
In contrast, public sector workers saw their wages jump but, the ONS said, this was likely due to pay rises being awarded earlier than in the previous year.
Meanwhile, the number of people on company payrolls continued to fall - down 135,000 in the three months to November - with a particular decline in shops and hospitality....The ONS data showed a stark contrast between public and private pay growth in the three months to November.
Annual average public sector pay growth was 7.9% compared to 3.6% for the private sector.'
Meanwhile while the usual Trump hand wringing continues on here about a nation we don't even live in, the fact wage growth and employment has collapsed in the UK and public sector pay growth is double private sector pay growth under this Labour government goes without comment....
Labour rewarding UC and PIP benefits claimants, working and the unemployed and the public sector, its client vote.
Any different to your lot hosing money at pensioners ?
Why not link pensions and benefits to GDP growth ?
As the world is batshit crazy I was tempted not to bother. But lets do an outlier:
Number of net gains (or losses -ve) for the Dems in the House? -80 (elections suspended in zones under Martial Law) Number of net gains (or losses -ve) for the Dems in the Senate? -6 (elections suspended in states where seditious traitors were in charge of trying to rig the election) Number of MSPs won by the SNP at the Holyrood election? 60 Number of AMs won by Plaid Cymru at the Senedd election? 31 UK Party recording the largest poll lead during 2026 and by what percentage? (British Polling Council registered pollsters only). 14% Labour’s Projected National Share of the vote based on the 2026 local elections according to the BBC? 17% Number of Reform MPs on the 31st December 2026? 17 The name of the UK Prime Minister on 31st December 2026? Wes Streeting Will Andy Burnham will be an MP on 31st December 2026? Yes UK borrowing in the financial year to November 2026 (£132.3bn to November 2025). £145bn UK GDP growth in the 12 months to October 2026 (1.1% to October 2025). 0.2% Winners of the 2026 FIFA Men’s World Cup. - no winner. Tournament collapses into chaos when ICE arrests players from Senegal and shoots the manager on live TV
Interesting but of course Trump cannot suspend elections without state governor and legislature consent and nor can he send in the National Guard without Congressional approval on the grounds of war or emergency
Trump can do anything he wants. State governors will be getting arrested as well. Traitors!
State governors can also call out the State National Guards, as I said Trump cannot call out the Federal National Guard without Congressional approval. State governors also control the state police, so they certainly won't be telling them to arrest themselves, it would need the FBI
That's all by the book. Trump ignores the book - he can send in whatever troops he likes and already has stormtroopers in theatre. State officials were immediately shut out of the Renee Good murder by DHS and the FBI.
Strong rumours that Trump will invoke the Insurrection Act today in Minnesota. He needs no authorisation and is not checked by the law or the courts or congress.
You said state governors control state police so won't "arrest themselves". Who said anything about the states? I am talking about Trump SA goons. The Insurrection Act puts state police on the side of the insurrection, so they will be shot like anyone else.
I do understand the normalcy bias. This is America so this can't be happening. But it IS happening, live, in front of your eyes.
It is so obvious but you know @HYUFD is never wrong so expect another naive response
'Wage growth in the UK eased to 4.5% between September and November, official figures suggest, following a sharp slowdown in private sector pay increases.
The pace of pay growth for those employed by private businesses slowed to the lowest rate in five years, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
In contrast, public sector workers saw their wages jump but, the ONS said, this was likely due to pay rises being awarded earlier than in the previous year.
Meanwhile, the number of people on company payrolls continued to fall - down 135,000 in the three months to November - with a particular decline in shops and hospitality....The ONS data showed a stark contrast between public and private pay growth in the three months to November.
Annual average public sector pay growth was 7.9% compared to 3.6% for the private sector.'
Meanwhile while the usual Trump hand wringing continues on here about a nation we don't even live in, the fact wage growth and employment has collapsed in the UK and public sector pay growth is double private sector pay growth under this Labour government goes without comment....
As the BBC report notes, the ONS pointed to shifts in the timing of public sector pay awards compared to 2024 which account for at least some of the strength in the year on year growth in public sector pay.
European officials should brace for sharp remarks from Trump at the Davos forum
Axios reports that Trump is heading to Davos more aggressive and ambitious than ever.
“Trump will arrive in Davos feeling more confident than ever in his ability to shape global events, and increasingly willing to pressure and publicly dress down anyone who stands in his way.
A senior US official warned that participants of the annual gathering of the global elite should prepare for harsh and offensive comments when Trump takes the stage on Wednesday.”
All Europe really needs to control Trump at Davos is a pretty young lady needing help with getting the contents out of a particularly viscous bottle of "catsup".
Isn't that now the time honoured way of dealing with pesky Scottish politicians?
Ref 24%(nc), LAB 19%(nc), CON 18%(-2), GRN 17%(+3) LDEM 14%(-2),
Pollster note: I expect most of the movement here is just noise - the thing to note is probably actually one of the parties that *hasn't* changed. Last week we had Reform down to 24%, and I made my usual "just one poll" noises, half expecting it to bounce back up. This week’s poll is another point backing up that decline (and, needless to say, it does not suggest any positive impact from Jenrick’s defection yet.)
Thank you Ben Pointer for setting the competition. Entry to follow!
YouGov giving Reform 24% twice in a row, following quite a period of low numbers for Reform but these the lowest, really points out the significance of methodology. It's reasonable to assume that their absolutely raw data is not a million miles off the findings of others, and they tweak and treat it in some different way.
If YouGov are right Reform are, despite being top, is really significant trouble. The real onslaught on their policies, personalities, character, associates, the absolute shower of chancers and mediocrities defecting, and whose interests they serve has hardly begun. The Tory recovery has only just begun, and Labour's recovery won't be visible, I suggest till 2027-8.
It's interesting to see the ever impartial Sam Coates quickly trying to influence the debate by calling the Conservative VI fall "noise" having listed the party at the top of his tweet last week and making much of the party's two point gain.
In all fairness, it probably is noise and whether last week's events are the game changer some on here think remains to be seen.
Reform will, assuming the May elections are decent for them, and, given they are starting from such a low base, the numbers of seats gained and councils won might look dramatic and impressive, doubtless get a new boost as both the Conservative and Labour parties assess their losses (or count their dead if you prefer).
I see the Friends of One Nation Conservatism are gathering - to many, "One Nation Conservatism" sits alongside its cousin "Social Democracy" as emblems of decades of "failure". Reviving One Nation for the mid 21st century is probably a good idea but it's far from clear to this observer how you can "sell" the idea to an angry and sceptical electorate who are looking for someone else to a) blame and b) pick up the tab. It's a lot of flowery and laudable rhetoric but in a divided society, how will it be seen as anything other than vaguely aspirational?
If the only response to the political and socio-economic crises of the time is to run back in desperation to the past, we have real problems. We need to think for the future not look for remedies which might have worked in a different and arguably simpler era.
The English local council seats up in May are mainly in London and big cities, not the English shires like the county council elections last year so I expect Reform to gain control of fewer councils and win fewer new councillors than they did last year. They are unlikely to win in Scotland either in the Holyrood election and in Wales in the Senedd election at best are only neck and neck with Plaid not ahead.
Re Wales, I believe Plaid are gaining and Reform may well underperform expectations not least because of the jailed Nathan Gill which has been widely spoken about in Welsh news programmes
Which is not great for Farage as Reform are unlikely to win much in London apart from the very outer suburbs nor in Scotland apart from around Banff and Buchan and Moray and the borders so they need to do well in Wales
The London prospects for them are really Bexley and Havering, maybe Bromley at a push?
Perhaps Barking&Dagenham, maybe Hounslow or Hillingdon to the far west.
The problem Reform have in most boroughs is that their core vote rejects their Londonness, full stop. (It's one of the things that unites their white working class and retired upper middle class demographics.) People who feel that way, feel it intensely, but there aren't many boroughs that are sufficiently outer for it to be a majority. Bromley and Croydon both go as far in as the Crystal Palace park, and by the time you are that close to the centre, anti-London is absurd.
I'd put it a bit higher than that - though not much.
As the world is batshit crazy I was tempted not to bother. But lets do an outlier:
Number of net gains (or losses -ve) for the Dems in the House? -80 (elections suspended in zones under Martial Law) Number of net gains (or losses -ve) for the Dems in the Senate? -6 (elections suspended in states where seditious traitors were in charge of trying to rig the election) Number of MSPs won by the SNP at the Holyrood election? 60 Number of AMs won by Plaid Cymru at the Senedd election? 31 UK Party recording the largest poll lead during 2026 and by what percentage? (British Polling Council registered pollsters only). 14% Labour’s Projected National Share of the vote based on the 2026 local elections according to the BBC? 17% Number of Reform MPs on the 31st December 2026? 17 The name of the UK Prime Minister on 31st December 2026? Wes Streeting Will Andy Burnham will be an MP on 31st December 2026? Yes UK borrowing in the financial year to November 2026 (£132.3bn to November 2025). £145bn UK GDP growth in the 12 months to October 2026 (1.1% to October 2025). 0.2% Winners of the 2026 FIFA Men’s World Cup. - no winner. Tournament collapses into chaos when ICE arrests players from Senegal and shoots the manager on live TV
Interesting but of course Trump cannot suspend elections without state governor and legislature consent and nor can he send in the National Guard without Congressional approval on the grounds of war or emergency
Trump can do anything he wants. State governors will be getting arrested as well. Traitors!
State governors can also call out the State National Guards, as I said Trump cannot call out the Federal National Guard without Congressional approval. State governors also control the state police, so they certainly won't be telling them to arrest themselves, it would need the FBI
At times you do seem to be naive
The evidence is that Trump will do whatever Trump wants
Well he can't, most US police are controlled by state governors, mayors and local sheriffs in the US NOT the President. States also have their own National Guards controlled by state governors and Congress has to approve the President deploying the Federal National Guard.
The FBI is also run by its own director accountable to Congress not just POTUS
Well he can't
Well, yes he can until such time he ceases to be POTUS
Go away and read some facts about the US law enforcement system before posting again please BigG.
The President does NOT control the US police, state governors and mayors and sheriffs do. The President does not even have full control of the FBI and Federal National Guard, Congress also has oversight as does the FBI Director.
The President does control the army but by that point if he sent in the army against half his nation the US would be headed for a second civil war anyway if Congress had not impeached and convicted him and removed him from office first (and Congress could cut off funds for the army too)
The second civil war *has already started* - when historians write the history of the war it will not have started in 2026, but 2025.
Remember that your division between state and federal now has a 2nd division - GOP state and Democrat state. The GOP ones are safe, its the ones where the elected are Democrats who are in trouble.
Minnesota makes its own laws and controls its own police, yes? And yet the SA are running riot shooting people in the street and the state can do nothing. They could invoke their national guard and try and shoot it out, but that will immediately lead to them being federalised and/or the Insurrection Act.
Congress? What Congress? The odd GOP senator says "this isn't the policy of the government, we are co-equal branches" but in practice they are already irrelevant.
You are quoting the book. Which does not apply any more.
A genuinely nuanced and considered discussion of the issues in Minnesota at the moment, in the last half hour or so of Joe Rogan’s interview with Rand Paul.
As the world is batshit crazy I was tempted not to bother. But lets do an outlier:
Number of net gains (or losses -ve) for the Dems in the House? -80 (elections suspended in zones under Martial Law) Number of net gains (or losses -ve) for the Dems in the Senate? -6 (elections suspended in states where seditious traitors were in charge of trying to rig the election) Number of MSPs won by the SNP at the Holyrood election? 60 Number of AMs won by Plaid Cymru at the Senedd election? 31 UK Party recording the largest poll lead during 2026 and by what percentage? (British Polling Council registered pollsters only). 14% Labour’s Projected National Share of the vote based on the 2026 local elections according to the BBC? 17% Number of Reform MPs on the 31st December 2026? 17 The name of the UK Prime Minister on 31st December 2026? Wes Streeting Will Andy Burnham will be an MP on 31st December 2026? Yes UK borrowing in the financial year to November 2026 (£132.3bn to November 2025). £145bn UK GDP growth in the 12 months to October 2026 (1.1% to October 2025). 0.2% Winners of the 2026 FIFA Men’s World Cup. - no winner. Tournament collapses into chaos when ICE arrests players from Senegal and shoots the manager on live TV
Interesting but of course Trump cannot suspend elections without state governor and legislature consent and nor can he send in the National Guard without Congressional approval on the grounds of war or emergency
Trump can do anything he wants. State governors will be getting arrested as well. Traitors!
State governors can also call out the State National Guards, as I said Trump cannot call out the Federal National Guard without Congressional approval. State governors also control the state police, so they certainly won't be telling them to arrest themselves, it would need the FBI
At times you do seem to be naive
The evidence is that Trump will do whatever Trump wants
Well he can't, most US police are controlled by state governors, mayors and local sheriffs in the US NOT the President. States also have their own National Guards controlled by state governors and Congress has to approve the President deploying the Federal National Guard.
The FBI is also run by its own director accountable to Congress not just POTUS
Is that not optimistic?
Trump has already federalised chunks of the National Guard, and engaged in endless manoeuvres to avoid the rule of law.
And Congress is self-castrated at present - with a majority (albeit a falling majority on some issues) of bootlickers and cowards, which will fight tooth and nail to defend Trump's lawbreaking.
This irreversible decision is a disaster for the nation. Starmer is betraying the country.
There is a limit to how many enemies we can afford to make. Given that we are virtually at war with Russia, are being threatened by the US and have generally pissed off the EU with our Brexit shenanigans, maintaining at least a cordial relationship with China is probably not a bad thing.
Don't be ridiculous. Approving a new spy embassy with over 200 underground rooms/prison cells is completely unnecessary and any "alliance" with China will be purely for their benefit.
The weakness of the left and standard sucking up to the biggest bully in the room is going to ruin this country. The UK is a big country, we have a permanent seat on the UNSC, we have nuclear weapons and we have the 5/6th largest economy in the world. It's time to act like it and tell the Chinese, Americans, Russians and others to get fucked. If that costs us 0.3% of GDP then that's the price we'll have to pay, maybe the government should look at cutting welfare and pensions.
As the world is batshit crazy I was tempted not to bother. But lets do an outlier:
Number of net gains (or losses -ve) for the Dems in the House? -80 (elections suspended in zones under Martial Law) Number of net gains (or losses -ve) for the Dems in the Senate? -6 (elections suspended in states where seditious traitors were in charge of trying to rig the election) Number of MSPs won by the SNP at the Holyrood election? 60 Number of AMs won by Plaid Cymru at the Senedd election? 31 UK Party recording the largest poll lead during 2026 and by what percentage? (British Polling Council registered pollsters only). 14% Labour’s Projected National Share of the vote based on the 2026 local elections according to the BBC? 17% Number of Reform MPs on the 31st December 2026? 17 The name of the UK Prime Minister on 31st December 2026? Wes Streeting Will Andy Burnham will be an MP on 31st December 2026? Yes UK borrowing in the financial year to November 2026 (£132.3bn to November 2025). £145bn UK GDP growth in the 12 months to October 2026 (1.1% to October 2025). 0.2% Winners of the 2026 FIFA Men’s World Cup. - no winner. Tournament collapses into chaos when ICE arrests players from Senegal and shoots the manager on live TV
Interesting but of course Trump cannot suspend elections without state governor and legislature consent and nor can he send in the National Guard without Congressional approval on the grounds of war or emergency
Trump can do anything he wants. State governors will be getting arrested as well. Traitors!
State governors can also call out the State National Guards, as I said Trump cannot call out the Federal National Guard without Congressional approval. State governors also control the state police, so they certainly won't be telling them to arrest themselves, it would need the FBI
At times you do seem to be naive
The evidence is that Trump will do whatever Trump wants
Well he can't, most US police are controlled by state governors, mayors and local sheriffs in the US NOT the President. States also have their own National Guards controlled by state governors and Congress has to approve the President deploying the Federal National Guard.
The FBI is also run by its own director accountable to Congress not just POTUS
Well he can't
Well, yes he can until such time he ceases to be POTUS
Go away and read some facts about the US law enforcement system before posting again please BigG.
The President does NOT control the US police, state governors and mayors and sheriffs do. The President does not even have full control of the FBI and Federal National Guard, Congress also has oversight as does the FBI Director.
The President does control the army but by that point if he sent in the army against half his nation the US would be headed for a second civil war anyway if Congress had not impeached and convicted him and removed him from office first (and Congress could cut off funds for the army too)
Read up on what he is doing in Minnesota. The reality is that unless Congress exercises its oversight powers, which it is not now doing, then there isn't all that much that any but the biggest states can do to prevent, or even control the paramilitary organisation that is ICE.
You talk about the FBI not being under his control - and yet that organisation actively took control of the investigation of a homicide by an ICE agent, prevented state law enforcement from investigating (or even having access to evidence), and has now declared the investigation closed.
And there appears to be no way in federal law to bring a civil action against either the FBI or ICE o compel investigation.
What they have done is a clear civil rights breach (and therefore criminal under existing federal legislation), but there appears to be no avenue by which a case can be brought, without the cooperation of the Dept of Justice.
I have one thing to say to the right wing politicians now pearl clutching over the new Chinese embassy.
You pushed Brexit and fellated Trump . The UK now has few options , out of the EU and with US UK relations in the toilet the government has no choice but to beg for scraps from the buffet table .
Trump is right about the Chagos and right about the embassy.
He supported the Chagos deal back in May.
More than that, the UK only did it because the US (under both Biden and Trump administrations) told us to.
And India. India was the tail what wagged the US dog to get this deal shaped in this way. India is the big player in the Chagos deal, as they battle to keep the regions hearts and minds out the pockets of the Chinese, and Imperial Britain Bashing is India and US club of choice for last 80 years of our friendship with both.
European officials should brace for sharp remarks from Trump at the Davos forum
Axios reports that Trump is heading to Davos more aggressive and ambitious than ever.
“Trump will arrive in Davos feeling more confident than ever in his ability to shape global events, and increasingly willing to pressure and publicly dress down anyone who stands in his way.
A senior US official warned that participants of the annual gathering of the global elite should prepare for harsh and offensive comments when Trump takes the stage on Wednesday.”
And how many trillions of your debt need rolling over in 2026, Mr President?
Oh, I can't seem to find my chequebook...
The UK is particularly badly placed to make such threats, given our outsize holdings of US treasury bonds. And would be adversely affected if the EU makes such a move.
Last night's Russian attacks on Ukraine targeted substations that connect Ukraine's nuclear power plants to the grid. This is pretty risky in terms of the nuclear safety of the plants. Earlier in the war, when similar was happening around the nuclear plant in Zaporizhia, this would have been very big news. World leaders would have spoken out about it. Now, nothing.
One good reason for Europe to step up its support for Ukraine and to help them win is that winning the war would reduce the number of desk-clearing important events that they have to deal with.
The implied nuclear threat needs to be at the absolute top of everyone’s agenda right now, despite all the other chaos that’s going on.
Anyone with a line to Trump needs to know that American Patriot missiles were what prevented a potential global nuclear catastrophe last night.
Europe has a Patriot-equivalent system - SAMP/T - but the interceptor missiles used (Aster 30) are only being produced at the rate of 270-300 per year. The company manufacturing them seems to be very proud of being ahead of schedule on the plan to increase production by 50% in 2026 compared to 2022, which falls well short of what is required.
This is the sort of thing that is so frustrating about Europe at the moment. The potential is there, but the execution is sorely lacking.
They should be producing thousands of them, did they fail to recognise there’s an actual war going on?
https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/speech_26_150 ..So while on paper the market of 450 million Europeans is open to them, it is far more complicated in reality. And that acts as a handbrake on the growth and profit potential of companies. This is why we need a new approach. We will soon put forward our 28th regime. The ultimate aim is to create a new truly European company structure. We call it EU Inc., with a single and simple set of rules that will apply seamlessly all over our Union. So that business can operate across Member States much more easily. Our entrepreneurs, the innovative companies, will be able to register a company in any Member State within 48 hours – fully online. They will enjoy the same capital regime all across the EU. Ultimately, we need a system where companies can do business and raise financing seamlessly across Europe – just as easily as in uniform markets like the US or China. If we get this right – and if we move fast enough – this will not only help EU companies grow. But it will attract investment from across the world.
Which brings me to the second focus – investment and capital. We are now building the Savings and Investment Union. We need a large-scale, deep and liquid capital market that attracts a wide range of investors. This will allow businesses to find the funding they need – including equity – at lower cost here in Europe. We have made proposals on market integration and supervision to ensure our financial market is more integrated. This covers trading, post-trading, and asset management – as well as driving innovation and making our supervisory framework more efficient. This will help ensure that capital flows where it is needed – to scaleups, to SMEs, to innovation, to industry.
Third priority: building an interconnected and affordable energy market – a true energy union...
Again, if this actually happens, it will not be to the UK's advantage to be outside such a system.
I have one thing to say to the right wing politicians now pearl clutching over the new Chinese embassy.
You pushed Brexit and fellated Trump . The UK now has few options , out of the EU and with US UK relations in the toilet the government has no choice but to beg for scraps from the buffet table .
I have one thing to say to the right wing politicians now pearl clutching over the new Chinese embassy.
You pushed Brexit and fellated Trump . The UK now has few options , out of the EU and with US UK relations in the toilet the government has no choice but to beg for scraps from the buffet table .
That just isn't true.
For one thing, we can have a rational relationship with the EU from the outside. We can argue about whether it would be better to be in the club, etc, but we are not cast into the outer darkness by being outside. The EU is pretty keen on working with countries that keep to agreements that they make.
Secondly, although the US has gone off the rails, there are still a whole bunch of countries that are not in the EU, but are democratic and respect the rule of law and the international agreements that they make: Japan, South Korea, Canada, Australia and others of various sizes and shades of grey. We can do a lot with the EU + Japan + South Korea + Canada + Australia
For another example, although Modi is running India in a way that does not completely align with our interests, and is not as democratic as one would wish, India is not yet a threat to Britain in the way that China is, and so we would be better building our relationship with India than with China.
It's really weird to say that Brexit and Trump means we have to prostrate ourselves to China. It doesn't, and doing so would damage us.
Ref 24%(nc), LAB 19%(nc), CON 18%(-2), GRN 17%(+3) LDEM 14%(-2),
Pollster note: I expect most of the movement here is just noise - the thing to note is probably actually one of the parties that *hasn't* changed. Last week we had Reform down to 24%, and I made my usual "just one poll" noises, half expecting it to bounce back up. This week’s poll is another point backing up that decline (and, needless to say, it does not suggest any positive impact from Jenrick’s defection yet.)
Thank you Ben Pointer for setting the competition. Entry to follow!
YouGov giving Reform 24% twice in a row, following quite a period of low numbers for Reform but these the lowest, really points out the significance of methodology. It's reasonable to assume that their absolutely raw data is not a million miles off the findings of others, and they tweak and treat it in some different way.
If YouGov are right Reform are, despite being top, is really significant trouble. The real onslaught on their policies, personalities, character, associates, the absolute shower of chancers and mediocrities defecting, and whose interests they serve has hardly begun. The Tory recovery has only just begun, and Labour's recovery won't be visible, I suggest till 2027-8.
It's interesting to see the ever impartial Sam Coates quickly trying to influence the debate by calling the Conservative VI fall "noise" having listed the party at the top of his tweet last week and making much of the party's two point gain.
In all fairness, it probably is noise and whether last week's events are the game changer some on here think remains to be seen.
Reform will, assuming the May elections are decent for them, and, given they are starting from such a low base, the numbers of seats gained and councils won might look dramatic and impressive, doubtless get a new boost as both the Conservative and Labour parties assess their losses (or count their dead if you prefer).
I see the Friends of One Nation Conservatism are gathering - to many, "One Nation Conservatism" sits alongside its cousin "Social Democracy" as emblems of decades of "failure". Reviving One Nation for the mid 21st century is probably a good idea but it's far from clear to this observer how you can "sell" the idea to an angry and sceptical electorate who are looking for someone else to a) blame and b) pick up the tab. It's a lot of flowery and laudable rhetoric but in a divided society, how will it be seen as anything other than vaguely aspirational?
If the only response to the political and socio-economic crises of the time is to run back in desperation to the past, we have real problems. We need to think for the future not look for remedies which might have worked in a different and arguably simpler era.
The English local council seats up in May are mainly in London and big cities, not the English shires like the county council elections last year so I expect Reform to gain control of fewer councils and win fewer new councillors than they did last year. They are unlikely to win in Scotland either in the Holyrood election and in Wales in the Senedd election at best are only neck and neck with Plaid not ahead.
Re Wales, I believe Plaid are gaining and Reform may well underperform expectations not least because of the jailed Nathan Gill which has been widely spoken about in Welsh news programmes
Which is not great for Farage as Reform are unlikely to win much in London apart from the very outer suburbs nor in Scotland apart from around Banff and Buchan and Moray and the borders so they need to do well in Wales
The London prospects for them are really Bexley and Havering, maybe Bromley at a push?
Perhaps Barking&Dagenham, maybe Hounslow or Hillingdon to the far west.
The problem Reform have in most boroughs is that their core vote rejects their Londonness, full stop. (It's one of the things that unites their white working class and retired upper middle class demographics.) People who feel that way, feel it intensely, but there aren't many boroughs that are sufficiently outer for it to be a majority. Bromley and Croydon both go as far in as the Crystal Palace park, and by the time you are that close to the centre, anti-London is absurd.
I'd put it a bit higher than that - though not much.
I have one thing to say to the right wing politicians now pearl clutching over the new Chinese embassy.
You pushed Brexit and fellated Trump . The UK now has few options , out of the EU and with US UK relations in the toilet the government has no choice but to beg for scraps from the buffet table .
That just isn't true.
For one thing, we can have a rational relationship with the EU from the outside. We can argue about whether it would be better to be in the club, etc, but we are not cast into the outer darkness by being outside. The EU is pretty keen on working with countries that keep to agreements that they make.
Secondly, although the US has gone off the rails, there are still a whole bunch of countries that are not in the EU, but are democratic and respect the rule of law and the international agreements that they make: Japan, South Korea, Canada, Australia and others of various sizes and shades of grey. We can do a lot with the EU + Japan + South Korea + Canada + Australia
For another example, although Modi is running India in a way that does not completely align with our interests, and is not as democratic as one would wish, India is not yet a threat to Britain in the way that China is, and so we would be better building our relationship with India than with China.
It's really weird to say that Brexit and Trump means we have to prostrate ourselves to China. It doesn't, and doing so would damage us.
China is a huge market and do actually stick to deals .
Last night's Russian attacks on Ukraine targeted substations that connect Ukraine's nuclear power plants to the grid. This is pretty risky in terms of the nuclear safety of the plants. Earlier in the war, when similar was happening around the nuclear plant in Zaporizhia, this would have been very big news. World leaders would have spoken out about it. Now, nothing.
One good reason for Europe to step up its support for Ukraine and to help them win is that winning the war would reduce the number of desk-clearing important events that they have to deal with.
The implied nuclear threat needs to be at the absolute top of everyone’s agenda right now, despite all the other chaos that’s going on.
Anyone with a line to Trump needs to know that American Patriot missiles were what prevented a potential global nuclear catastrophe last night.
Europe has a Patriot-equivalent system - SAMP/T - but the interceptor missiles used (Aster 30) are only being produced at the rate of 270-300 per year. The company manufacturing them seems to be very proud of being ahead of schedule on the plan to increase production by 50% in 2026 compared to 2022, which falls well short of what is required.
This is the sort of thing that is so frustrating about Europe at the moment. The potential is there, but the execution is sorely lacking.
They should be producing thousands of them, did they fail to recognise there’s an actual war going on?
Even the US is making at most ~850 Patriot interceptor missiles a year.
Back in 2022 there were lots of confident assertions that the West was going to drown Russia in a tide of munitions, but Russia seems to have done a better job at ramping up production of war material.
Last night's Russian attacks on Ukraine targeted substations that connect Ukraine's nuclear power plants to the grid. This is pretty risky in terms of the nuclear safety of the plants. Earlier in the war, when similar was happening around the nuclear plant in Zaporizhia, this would have been very big news. World leaders would have spoken out about it. Now, nothing.
One good reason for Europe to step up its support for Ukraine and to help them win is that winning the war would reduce the number of desk-clearing important events that they have to deal with.
The implied nuclear threat needs to be at the absolute top of everyone’s agenda right now, despite all the other chaos that’s going on.
Anyone with a line to Trump needs to know that American Patriot missiles were what prevented a potential global nuclear catastrophe last night.
Europe has a Patriot-equivalent system - SAMP/T - but the interceptor missiles used (Aster 30) are only being produced at the rate of 270-300 per year. The company manufacturing them seems to be very proud of being ahead of schedule on the plan to increase production by 50% in 2026 compared to 2022, which falls well short of what is required.
This is the sort of thing that is so frustrating about Europe at the moment. The potential is there, but the execution is sorely lacking.
They should be producing thousands of them, did they fail to recognise there’s an actual war going on?
Yes, we have. Otherwise we'd have cancelled some of our useless stuff and helped pay for stepping up production.
France, Italy and Denmark have shelled out for actual orders (ditto Germany, Sweden and Denmark for IRIS-T). We're still working out how to pay the US for more F35s, and what to do about Ajax.
I have one thing to say to the right wing politicians now pearl clutching over the new Chinese embassy.
You pushed Brexit and fellated Trump . The UK now has few options , out of the EU and with US UK relations in the toilet the government has no choice but to beg for scraps from the buffet table .
That just isn't true.
For one thing, we can have a rational relationship with the EU from the outside. We can argue about whether it would be better to be in the club, etc, but we are not cast into the outer darkness by being outside. The EU is pretty keen on working with countries that keep to agreements that they make.
Secondly, although the US has gone off the rails, there are still a whole bunch of countries that are not in the EU, but are democratic and respect the rule of law and the international agreements that they make: Japan, South Korea, Canada, Australia and others of various sizes and shades of grey. We can do a lot with the EU + Japan + South Korea + Canada + Australia
For another example, although Modi is running India in a way that does not completely align with our interests, and is not as democratic as one would wish, India is not yet a threat to Britain in the way that China is, and so we would be better building our relationship with India than with China.
It's really weird to say that Brexit and Trump means we have to prostrate ourselves to China. It doesn't, and doing so would damage us.
You're usually very balanced on many issues, Password, but I can't see any argument that we are not now significantly more vulnerable in this new era of imperial powerplay outside the E.U.
Putin's GRU handbook advocated for Brexit for just this reason, to weaken both the U.K., and Europe.
1 Number of net gains (or losses -ve) for the Dems in the House? Question will be voided by there not being a free and fair election
2 Number of net gains (or losses -ve) for the Dems in the Senate? ditto
3 Number of MSPs won by the SNP at the Holyrood election? 58
4 Number of AMs won by Plaid Cymru at the Senedd election? 32
5 UK Party recording the largest poll lead during 2026 and by what percentage? (British Polling Council registered pollsters only). Reform 14 points January 2026
6 Labour’s Projected National Share of the vote based on the 2026 local elections according to the BBC? 21
7 Number of Reform MPs on the 31st December 2026? 8
8 The name of the UK Prime Minister on 31st December 2026? Starmer
9 Will Andy Burnham will be an MP on 31st December 2026?No
10 UK borrowing in the financial year to November 2026 (£132.3bn to November 2025).£!35 bn
11 UK GDP growth in the 12 months to October 2026 (1.1% to October 2025). 1.5
12 Winners of the 2026 FIFA Men’s World Cup. Argentina
I have one thing to say to the right wing politicians now pearl clutching over the new Chinese embassy.
You pushed Brexit and fellated Trump . The UK now has few options , out of the EU and with US UK relations in the toilet the government has no choice but to beg for scraps from the buffet table .
That just isn't true.
For one thing, we can have a rational relationship with the EU from the outside. We can argue about whether it would be better to be in the club, etc, but we are not cast into the outer darkness by being outside. The EU is pretty keen on working with countries that keep to agreements that they make.
Secondly, although the US has gone off the rails, there are still a whole bunch of countries that are not in the EU, but are democratic and respect the rule of law and the international agreements that they make: Japan, South Korea, Canada, Australia and others of various sizes and shades of grey. We can do a lot with the EU + Japan + South Korea + Canada + Australia
For another example, although Modi is running India in a way that does not completely align with our interests, and is not as democratic as one would wish, India is not yet a threat to Britain in the way that China is, and so we would be better building our relationship with India than with China.
It's really weird to say that Brexit and Trump means we have to prostrate ourselves to China. It doesn't, and doing so would damage us.
China is a huge market and do actually stick to deals .
Like the deal to leave Hong Kong alone for 50 years?
I have one thing to say to the right wing politicians now pearl clutching over the new Chinese embassy.
You pushed Brexit and fellated Trump . The UK now has few options , out of the EU and with US UK relations in the toilet the government has no choice but to beg for scraps from the buffet table .
That just isn't true.
For one thing, we can have a rational relationship with the EU from the outside. We can argue about whether it would be better to be in the club, etc, but we are not cast into the outer darkness by being outside. The EU is pretty keen on working with countries that keep to agreements that they make.
Secondly, although the US has gone off the rails, there are still a whole bunch of countries that are not in the EU, but are democratic and respect the rule of law and the international agreements that they make: Japan, South Korea, Canada, Australia and others of various sizes and shades of grey. We can do a lot with the EU + Japan + South Korea + Canada + Australia
For another example, although Modi is running India in a way that does not completely align with our interests, and is not as democratic as one would wish, India is not yet a threat to Britain in the way that China is, and so we would be better building our relationship with India than with China.
It's really weird to say that Brexit and Trump means we have to prostrate ourselves to China. It doesn't, and doing so would damage us.
You're usually very balanced on many issues, Password, but I can't see any argument that we are not now significantly more vulnerable in a new era of imperial powerplay outside the E.U.
That isn't what I'm arguing.
I'd vote to rejoin the EU without any hesitation, and I think it would be in Britain's interests to be inside the EU.
But I don't think that the UK is so weak outside the EU that we have no choice but to become a vassal state of China, as implied by having to "beg for scraps" in the context of approving the Chinese embassy.
The EU has an interest in a mutually beneficial relationship with the UK, and we can choose to maintain a good relationship with them.
I have one thing to say to the right wing politicians now pearl clutching over the new Chinese embassy.
You pushed Brexit and fellated Trump . The UK now has few options , out of the EU and with US UK relations in the toilet the government has no choice but to beg for scraps from the buffet table .
That just isn't true.
For one thing, we can have a rational relationship with the EU from the outside. We can argue about whether it would be better to be in the club, etc, but we are not cast into the outer darkness by being outside. The EU is pretty keen on working with countries that keep to agreements that they make.
Secondly, although the US has gone off the rails, there are still a whole bunch of countries that are not in the EU, but are democratic and respect the rule of law and the international agreements that they make: Japan, South Korea, Canada, Australia and others of various sizes and shades of grey. We can do a lot with the EU + Japan + South Korea + Canada + Australia
For another example, although Modi is running India in a way that does not completely align with our interests, and is not as democratic as one would wish, India is not yet a threat to Britain in the way that China is, and so we would be better building our relationship with India than with China.
It's really weird to say that Brexit and Trump means we have to prostrate ourselves to China. It doesn't, and doing so would damage us.
You're usually very balanced on many issues, Password, but I can't see any argument that we are not now significantly more vulnerable in this new era of imperial powerplay outside the E.U.
Putin's GRU handbook advocated for Brexit for just this reason, to weaken both the U.K., and Europe.
If you can't see it, that's because of your own lack of imagination, not anything else.
Defence is not an EU-issue, it is a national expenditure issue. Either we invest in Defence, or we do not.
I have one thing to say to the right wing politicians now pearl clutching over the new Chinese embassy.
You pushed Brexit and fellated Trump . The UK now has few options , out of the EU and with US UK relations in the toilet the government has no choice but to beg for scraps from the buffet table .
That just isn't true.
For one thing, we can have a rational relationship with the EU from the outside. We can argue about whether it would be better to be in the club, etc, but we are not cast into the outer darkness by being outside. The EU is pretty keen on working with countries that keep to agreements that they make.
Secondly, although the US has gone off the rails, there are still a whole bunch of countries that are not in the EU, but are democratic and respect the rule of law and the international agreements that they make: Japan, South Korea, Canada, Australia and others of various sizes and shades of grey. We can do a lot with the EU + Japan + South Korea + Canada + Australia
For another example, although Modi is running India in a way that does not completely align with our interests, and is not as democratic as one would wish, India is not yet a threat to Britain in the way that China is, and so we would be better building our relationship with India than with China.
It's really weird to say that Brexit and Trump means we have to prostrate ourselves to China. It doesn't, and doing so would damage us.
You're usually very balanced on many issues, Password, but I can't see any argument that we are not now significantly more vulnerable in this new era of imperial powerplay outside the E.U.
Putin's GRU handbook advocated for Brexit for just this reason, to weaken both the U.K., and Europe.
If you can't see it, that's because of your own lack of imagination, not anything else.
Defence is not an EU-issue, it is a national expenditure issue. Either we invest in Defence, or we do not.
The EU is frankly moot to the discussion.
The EU isn't moot. They are a large collection of countries that are mostly good allies for the UK on defence issues, which means that UK is not so alone that we have to beg China for protection from the Yanks.
I have one thing to say to the right wing politicians now pearl clutching over the new Chinese embassy.
You pushed Brexit and fellated Trump . The UK now has few options , out of the EU and with US UK relations in the toilet the government has no choice but to beg for scraps from the buffet table .
That just isn't true.
For one thing, we can have a rational relationship with the EU from the outside. We can argue about whether it would be better to be in the club, etc, but we are not cast into the outer darkness by being outside. The EU is pretty keen on working with countries that keep to agreements that they make.
Secondly, although the US has gone off the rails, there are still a whole bunch of countries that are not in the EU, but are democratic and respect the rule of law and the international agreements that they make: Japan, South Korea, Canada, Australia and others of various sizes and shades of grey. We can do a lot with the EU + Japan + South Korea + Canada + Australia
For another example, although Modi is running India in a way that does not completely align with our interests, and is not as democratic as one would wish, India is not yet a threat to Britain in the way that China is, and so we would be better building our relationship with India than with China.
It's really weird to say that Brexit and Trump means we have to prostrate ourselves to China. It doesn't, and doing so would damage us.
You're usually very balanced on many issues, Password, but I can't see any argument that we are not now significantly more vulnerable in this new era of imperial powerplay outside the E.U.
Putin's GRU handbook advocated for Brexit for just this reason, to weaken both the U.K., and Europe.
If you can't see it, that's because of your own lack of imagination, not anything else.
Defence is not an EU-issue, it is a national expenditure issue. Either we invest in Defence, or we do not.
The EU is frankly moot to the discussion.
The EU isn't moot. They are a large collection of countries that are mostly good allies for the UK on defence issues, which means that UK is not so alone that we have to beg China for protection from the Yanks.
But their principal importance in that regard is their membership of NATO. Their grouping as the EU is secondary.
I have one thing to say to the right wing politicians now pearl clutching over the new Chinese embassy.
You pushed Brexit and fellated Trump . The UK now has few options , out of the EU and with US UK relations in the toilet the government has no choice but to beg for scraps from the buffet table .
That just isn't true.
For one thing, we can have a rational relationship with the EU from the outside. We can argue about whether it would be better to be in the club, etc, but we are not cast into the outer darkness by being outside. The EU is pretty keen on working with countries that keep to agreements that they make.
Secondly, although the US has gone off the rails, there are still a whole bunch of countries that are not in the EU, but are democratic and respect the rule of law and the international agreements that they make: Japan, South Korea, Canada, Australia and others of various sizes and shades of grey. We can do a lot with the EU + Japan + South Korea + Canada + Australia
For another example, although Modi is running India in a way that does not completely align with our interests, and is not as democratic as one would wish, India is not yet a threat to Britain in the way that China is, and so we would be better building our relationship with India than with China.
It's really weird to say that Brexit and Trump means we have to prostrate ourselves to China. It doesn't, and doing so would damage us.
You're usually very balanced on many issues, Password, but I can't see any argument that we are not now significantly more vulnerable in this new era of imperial powerplay outside the E.U.
Putin's GRU handbook advocated for Brexit for just this reason, to weaken both the U.K., and Europe.
Yet Trump pre Greenland imposed just 10% tariffs on UK imports, lower than the tariffs he imposed on EU, Chinese, Japanese, Canadian, NZ, South African, Brazilian, Mexican and Indian and Swiss imports
I have one thing to say to the right wing politicians now pearl clutching over the new Chinese embassy.
You pushed Brexit and fellated Trump . The UK now has few options , out of the EU and with US UK relations in the toilet the government has no choice but to beg for scraps from the buffet table .
That just isn't true.
For one thing, we can have a rational relationship with the EU from the outside. We can argue about whether it would be better to be in the club, etc, but we are not cast into the outer darkness by being outside. The EU is pretty keen on working with countries that keep to agreements that they make.
Secondly, although the US has gone off the rails, there are still a whole bunch of countries that are not in the EU, but are democratic and respect the rule of law and the international agreements that they make: Japan, South Korea, Canada, Australia and others of various sizes and shades of grey. We can do a lot with the EU + Japan + South Korea + Canada + Australia
For another example, although Modi is running India in a way that does not completely align with our interests, and is not as democratic as one would wish, India is not yet a threat to Britain in the way that China is, and so we would be better building our relationship with India than with China.
It's really weird to say that Brexit and Trump means we have to prostrate ourselves to China. It doesn't, and doing so would damage us.
You're usually very balanced on many issues, Password, but I can't see any argument that we are not now significantly more vulnerable in this new era of imperial powerplay outside the E.U.
Putin's GRU handbook advocated for Brexit for just this reason, to weaken both the U.K., and Europe.
If you can't see it, that's because of your own lack of imagination, not anything else.
Defence is not an EU-issue, it is a national expenditure issue. Either we invest in Defence, or we do not.
The EU is frankly moot to the discussion.
The EU isn't moot. They are a large collection of countries that are mostly good allies for the UK on defence issues, which means that UK is not so alone that we have to beg China for protection from the Yanks.
But their principal importance in that regard is their membership of NATO. Their grouping as the EU is secondary.
Well, NATO structures might be about to become moot too.
When I talk about this I'm less interested in the formal structures and I mostly use the EU as shorthand for "democratic European countries". Whether the UK cooperates with them via NATO, EU, JEF, OSCE, or whatever isn't really that important.
I have one thing to say to the right wing politicians now pearl clutching over the new Chinese embassy.
You pushed Brexit and fellated Trump . The UK now has few options , out of the EU and with US UK relations in the toilet the government has no choice but to beg for scraps from the buffet table .
That just isn't true.
For one thing, we can have a rational relationship with the EU from the outside. We can argue about whether it would be better to be in the club, etc, but we are not cast into the outer darkness by being outside. The EU is pretty keen on working with countries that keep to agreements that they make.
Secondly, although the US has gone off the rails, there are still a whole bunch of countries that are not in the EU, but are democratic and respect the rule of law and the international agreements that they make: Japan, South Korea, Canada, Australia and others of various sizes and shades of grey. We can do a lot with the EU + Japan + South Korea + Canada + Australia
For another example, although Modi is running India in a way that does not completely align with our interests, and is not as democratic as one would wish, India is not yet a threat to Britain in the way that China is, and so we would be better building our relationship with India than with China.
It's really weird to say that Brexit and Trump means we have to prostrate ourselves to China. It doesn't, and doing so would damage us.
You're usually very balanced on many issues, Password, but I can't see any argument that we are not now significantly more vulnerable in this new era of imperial powerplay outside the E.U.
Putin's GRU handbook advocated for Brexit for just this reason, to weaken both the U.K., and Europe.
Yet Trump pre Greenland imposed just 10% tariffs on UK imports, lower than the tariffs he imposed on EU, Chinese, Japanese, Canadian, NZ, South African, Brazilian, Mexican and Indian and Swiss imports
That's why I think we may now come to a crossroads. If Starmer backs down on Greenland, we may be locked in the U.S. orbit forever, not only for military but also economic reasons.
As the world is batshit crazy I was tempted not to bother. But lets do an outlier:
Number of net gains (or losses -ve) for the Dems in the House? -80 (elections suspended in zones under Martial Law) Number of net gains (or losses -ve) for the Dems in the Senate? -6 (elections suspended in states where seditious traitors were in charge of trying to rig the election) Number of MSPs won by the SNP at the Holyrood election? 60 Number of AMs won by Plaid Cymru at the Senedd election? 31 UK Party recording the largest poll lead during 2026 and by what percentage? (British Polling Council registered pollsters only). 14% Labour’s Projected National Share of the vote based on the 2026 local elections according to the BBC? 17% Number of Reform MPs on the 31st December 2026? 17 The name of the UK Prime Minister on 31st December 2026? Wes Streeting Will Andy Burnham will be an MP on 31st December 2026? Yes UK borrowing in the financial year to November 2026 (£132.3bn to November 2025). £145bn UK GDP growth in the 12 months to October 2026 (1.1% to October 2025). 0.2% Winners of the 2026 FIFA Men’s World Cup. - no winner. Tournament collapses into chaos when ICE arrests players from Senegal and shoots the manager on live TV
Interesting but of course Trump cannot suspend elections without state governor and legislature consent and nor can he send in the National Guard without Congressional approval on the grounds of war or emergency
Trump can do anything he wants. State governors will be getting arrested as well. Traitors!
State governors can also call out the State National Guards, as I said Trump cannot call out the Federal National Guard without Congressional approval. State governors also control the state police, so they certainly won't be telling them to arrest themselves, it would need the FBI
At times you do seem to be naive
The evidence is that Trump will do whatever Trump wants
Well he can't, most US police are controlled by state governors, mayors and local sheriffs in the US NOT the President. States also have their own National Guards controlled by state governors and Congress has to approve the President deploying the Federal National Guard.
The FBI is also run by its own director accountable to Congress not just POTUS
Well he can't
Well, yes he can until such time he ceases to be POTUS
Go away and read some facts about the US law enforcement system before posting again please BigG.
The President does NOT control the US police, state governors and mayors and sheriffs do. The President does not even have full control of the FBI and Federal National Guard, Congress also has oversight as does the FBI Director.
The President does control the army but by that point if he sent in the army against half his nation the US would be headed for a second civil war anyway if Congress had not impeached and convicted him and removed him from office first (and Congress could cut off funds for the army too)
Read up on what he is doing in Minnesota. The reality is that unless Congress exercises its oversight powers, which it is not now doing, then there isn't all that much that any but the biggest states can do to prevent, or even control the paramilitary organisation that is ICE.
You talk about the FBI not being under his control - and yet that organisation actively took control of the investigation of a homicide by an ICE agent, prevented state law enforcement from investigating (or even having access to evidence), and has now declared the investigation closed.
And there appears to be no way in federal law to bring a civil action against either the FBI or ICE o compel investigation.
What they have done is a clear civil rights breach (and therefore criminal under existing federal legislation), but there appears to be no avenue by which a case can be brought, without the cooperation of the Dept of Justice.
There is a slight difference between ICE actions taken against a woman they say was trying to run over one of their officials and Trump cancelling midterm elections without the say so of state governors who control their State national guards and state police.
I have one thing to say to the right wing politicians now pearl clutching over the new Chinese embassy.
You pushed Brexit and fellated Trump . The UK now has few options , out of the EU and with US UK relations in the toilet the government has no choice but to beg for scraps from the buffet table .
That just isn't true.
For one thing, we can have a rational relationship with the EU from the outside. We can argue about whether it would be better to be in the club, etc, but we are not cast into the outer darkness by being outside. The EU is pretty keen on working with countries that keep to agreements that they make.
Secondly, although the US has gone off the rails, there are still a whole bunch of countries that are not in the EU, but are democratic and respect the rule of law and the international agreements that they make: Japan, South Korea, Canada, Australia and others of various sizes and shades of grey. We can do a lot with the EU + Japan + South Korea + Canada + Australia
For another example, although Modi is running India in a way that does not completely align with our interests, and is not as democratic as one would wish, India is not yet a threat to Britain in the way that China is, and so we would be better building our relationship with India than with China.
It's really weird to say that Brexit and Trump means we have to prostrate ourselves to China. It doesn't, and doing so would damage us.
You're usually very balanced on many issues, Password, but I can't see any argument that we are not now significantly more vulnerable in this new era of imperial powerplay outside the E.U.
Putin's GRU handbook advocated for Brexit for just this reason, to weaken both the U.K., and Europe.
If you can't see it, that's because of your own lack of imagination, not anything else.
Defence is not an EU-issue, it is a national expenditure issue. Either we invest in Defence, or we do not.
The EU is frankly moot to the discussion.
The EU isn't moot. They are a large collection of countries that are mostly good allies for the UK on defence issues, which means that UK is not so alone that we have to beg China for protection from the Yanks.
But their principal importance in that regard is their membership of NATO. Their grouping as the EU is secondary.
Well, NATO structures might be about to become moot too.
When I talk about this I'm less interested in the formal structures and I mostly use the EU as shorthand for "democratic European countries". Whether the UK cooperates with them via NATO, EU, JEF, OSCE, or whatever isn't really that important.
Agreed. The EU nations are allies (minus Hungary, Slovakia, Austria, and Ireland), and the USA is increasingly not.
I have one thing to say to the right wing politicians now pearl clutching over the new Chinese embassy.
You pushed Brexit and fellated Trump . The UK now has few options , out of the EU and with US UK relations in the toilet the government has no choice but to beg for scraps from the buffet table .
That just isn't true.
For one thing, we can have a rational relationship with the EU from the outside. We can argue about whether it would be better to be in the club, etc, but we are not cast into the outer darkness by being outside. The EU is pretty keen on working with countries that keep to agreements that they make.
Secondly, although the US has gone off the rails, there are still a whole bunch of countries that are not in the EU, but are democratic and respect the rule of law and the international agreements that they make: Japan, South Korea, Canada, Australia and others of various sizes and shades of grey. We can do a lot with the EU + Japan + South Korea + Canada + Australia
For another example, although Modi is running India in a way that does not completely align with our interests, and is not as democratic as one would wish, India is not yet a threat to Britain in the way that China is, and so we would be better building our relationship with India than with China.
It's really weird to say that Brexit and Trump means we have to prostrate ourselves to China. It doesn't, and doing so would damage us.
You're usually very balanced on many issues, Password, but I can't see any argument that we are not now significantly more vulnerable in this new era of imperial powerplay outside the E.U.
Putin's GRU handbook advocated for Brexit for just this reason, to weaken both the U.K., and Europe.
If you can't see it, that's because of your own lack of imagination, not anything else.
Defence is not an EU-issue, it is a national expenditure issue. Either we invest in Defence, or we do not.
The EU is frankly moot to the discussion.
It goes beyond defence. The China embassy is also about trade. Many of the people attacking the UK government over the Chinese embassy are the same people who campaigned for Brexit on the basis that we should be trading with fast growing Asian emerging market economies not the EU. The hypocrisy is breathtaking.
Number of net gains (or losses -ve) for the Dems in the House? +9 Number of net gains (or losses -ve) for the Dems in the Senate? +2 Number of MSPs won by the SNP at the Holyrood election? 58 Number of AMs won by Plaid Cymru at the Senedd election? 32 UK Party recording the largest poll lead during 2026 and by what percentage? Reform 14 Labour’s Projected National Share of the vote based on the 2026 local elections according to the BBC? 18% Number of Reform MPs on the 31st December 2026? 13 The name of the UK Prime Minister on 31st December 2026? Starmer Will Andy Burnham will be an MP on 31st December 2026? No UK borrowing in the financial year to November 2026 (£132.3bn to November 2025). £152bn UK GDP growth in the 12 months to October 2026 (1.1% to October 2025). +0.4% Winners of the 2026 FIFA Men’s World Cup. France
(If I win with the above I'll consider using the prize to buy a hat to eat)
I have one thing to say to the right wing politicians now pearl clutching over the new Chinese embassy.
You pushed Brexit and fellated Trump . The UK now has few options , out of the EU and with US UK relations in the toilet the government has no choice but to beg for scraps from the buffet table .
That just isn't true.
For one thing, we can have a rational relationship with the EU from the outside. We can argue about whether it would be better to be in the club, etc, but we are not cast into the outer darkness by being outside. The EU is pretty keen on working with countries that keep to agreements that they make.
Secondly, although the US has gone off the rails, there are still a whole bunch of countries that are not in the EU, but are democratic and respect the rule of law and the international agreements that they make: Japan, South Korea, Canada, Australia and others of various sizes and shades of grey. We can do a lot with the EU + Japan + South Korea + Canada + Australia
For another example, although Modi is running India in a way that does not completely align with our interests, and is not as democratic as one would wish, India is not yet a threat to Britain in the way that China is, and so we would be better building our relationship with India than with China.
It's really weird to say that Brexit and Trump means we have to prostrate ourselves to China. It doesn't, and doing so would damage us.
You're usually very balanced on many issues, Password, but I can't see any argument that we are not now significantly more vulnerable in this new era of imperial powerplay outside the E.U.
Putin's GRU handbook advocated for Brexit for just this reason, to weaken both the U.K., and Europe.
If you can't see it, that's because of your own lack of imagination, not anything else.
Defence is not an EU-issue, it is a national expenditure issue. Either we invest in Defence, or we do not.
The EU is frankly moot to the discussion.
The EU isn't moot. They are a large collection of countries that are mostly good allies for the UK on defence issues, which means that UK is not so alone that we have to beg China for protection from the Yanks.
They are a large collection of countries, yes, not a single country.
The countries are relevant, the EU is not. Maybe one day it will be, but for today, it is moot.
And those collection of countries aren't investing as much as they should on Defence.
And no we do not need to beg China for anything and anyone who says we should, or that we could take Chinese promises seriously, is not remotely sane or serious themselves.
Last night's Russian attacks on Ukraine targeted substations that connect Ukraine's nuclear power plants to the grid. This is pretty risky in terms of the nuclear safety of the plants. Earlier in the war, when similar was happening around the nuclear plant in Zaporizhia, this would have been very big news. World leaders would have spoken out about it. Now, nothing.
One good reason for Europe to step up its support for Ukraine and to help them win is that winning the war would reduce the number of desk-clearing important events that they have to deal with.
The implied nuclear threat needs to be at the absolute top of everyone’s agenda right now, despite all the other chaos that’s going on.
Anyone with a line to Trump needs to know that American Patriot missiles were what prevented a potential global nuclear catastrophe last night.
Europe has a Patriot-equivalent system - SAMP/T - but the interceptor missiles used (Aster 30) are only being produced at the rate of 270-300 per year. The company manufacturing them seems to be very proud of being ahead of schedule on the plan to increase production by 50% in 2026 compared to 2022, which falls well short of what is required.
This is the sort of thing that is so frustrating about Europe at the moment. The potential is there, but the execution is sorely lacking.
They should be producing thousands of them, did they fail to recognise there’s an actual war going on?
Yes, we have. Otherwise we'd have cancelled some of our useless stuff and helped pay for stepping up production.
France, Italy and Denmark have shelled out for actual orders (ditto Germany, Sweden and Denmark for IRIS-T). We're still working out how to pay the US for more F35s, and what to do about Ajax.
What we need is lots of weaponry that is good enough, rather than obsessing about creating the best ever weaponry in minute quantities.
'Wage growth in the UK eased to 4.5% between September and November, official figures suggest, following a sharp slowdown in private sector pay increases.
The pace of pay growth for those employed by private businesses slowed to the lowest rate in five years, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
In contrast, public sector workers saw their wages jump but, the ONS said, this was likely due to pay rises being awarded earlier than in the previous year.
Meanwhile, the number of people on company payrolls continued to fall - down 135,000 in the three months to November - with a particular decline in shops and hospitality....The ONS data showed a stark contrast between public and private pay growth in the three months to November.
Annual average public sector pay growth was 7.9% compared to 3.6% for the private sector.'
Meanwhile while the usual Trump hand wringing continues on here about a nation we don't even live in, the fact wage growth and employment has collapsed in the UK and public sector pay growth is double private sector pay growth under this Labour government goes without comment....
Labour rewarding UC and PIP benefits claimants, working and the unemployed and the public sector, its client vote.
Any different to your lot hosing money at pensioners ?
Why not link pensions and benefits to GDP growth ?
Kemi did float means testing the triple lock but was shouted down by Labour for hitting state pensioners
Last night's Russian attacks on Ukraine targeted substations that connect Ukraine's nuclear power plants to the grid. This is pretty risky in terms of the nuclear safety of the plants. Earlier in the war, when similar was happening around the nuclear plant in Zaporizhia, this would have been very big news. World leaders would have spoken out about it. Now, nothing.
One good reason for Europe to step up its support for Ukraine and to help them win is that winning the war would reduce the number of desk-clearing important events that they have to deal with.
The implied nuclear threat needs to be at the absolute top of everyone’s agenda right now, despite all the other chaos that’s going on.
Anyone with a line to Trump needs to know that American Patriot missiles were what prevented a potential global nuclear catastrophe last night.
Europe has a Patriot-equivalent system - SAMP/T - but the interceptor missiles used (Aster 30) are only being produced at the rate of 270-300 per year. The company manufacturing them seems to be very proud of being ahead of schedule on the plan to increase production by 50% in 2026 compared to 2022, which falls well short of what is required.
This is the sort of thing that is so frustrating about Europe at the moment. The potential is there, but the execution is sorely lacking.
They should be producing thousands of them, did they fail to recognise there’s an actual war going on?
Even the US is making at most ~850 Patriot interceptor missiles a year.
Back in 2022 there were lots of confident assertions that the West was going to drown Russia in a tide of munitions, but Russia seems to have done a better job at ramping up production of war material.
Fortunately, Russian incompetence means they destroy it more quickly than they can produce it.
I have one thing to say to the right wing politicians now pearl clutching over the new Chinese embassy.
You pushed Brexit and fellated Trump . The UK now has few options , out of the EU and with US UK relations in the toilet the government has no choice but to beg for scraps from the buffet table .
That just isn't true.
For one thing, we can have a rational relationship with the EU from the outside. We can argue about whether it would be better to be in the club, etc, but we are not cast into the outer darkness by being outside. The EU is pretty keen on working with countries that keep to agreements that they make.
Secondly, although the US has gone off the rails, there are still a whole bunch of countries that are not in the EU, but are democratic and respect the rule of law and the international agreements that they make: Japan, South Korea, Canada, Australia and others of various sizes and shades of grey. We can do a lot with the EU + Japan + South Korea + Canada + Australia
For another example, although Modi is running India in a way that does not completely align with our interests, and is not as democratic as one would wish, India is not yet a threat to Britain in the way that China is, and so we would be better building our relationship with India than with China.
It's really weird to say that Brexit and Trump means we have to prostrate ourselves to China. It doesn't, and doing so would damage us.
You're usually very balanced on many issues, Password, but I can't see any argument that we are not now significantly more vulnerable in this new era of imperial powerplay outside the E.U.
Putin's GRU handbook advocated for Brexit for just this reason, to weaken both the U.K., and Europe.
If you can't see it, that's because of your own lack of imagination, not anything else.
Defence is not an EU-issue, it is a national expenditure issue. Either we invest in Defence, or we do not.
The EU is frankly moot to the discussion.
The EU isn't moot. They are a large collection of countries that are mostly good allies for the UK on defence issues, which means that UK is not so alone that we have to beg China for protection from the Yanks.
But their principal importance in that regard is their membership of NATO. Their grouping as the EU is secondary.
Well, NATO structures might be about to become moot too.
When I talk about this I'm less interested in the formal structures and I mostly use the EU as shorthand for "democratic European countries". Whether the UK cooperates with them via NATO, EU, JEF, OSCE, or whatever isn't really that important.
Agreed. The EU nations are allies (minus Hungary, Slovakia, Austria, and Ireland), and the USA is increasingly not.
I have one thing to say to the right wing politicians now pearl clutching over the new Chinese embassy.
You pushed Brexit and fellated Trump . The UK now has few options , out of the EU and with US UK relations in the toilet the government has no choice but to beg for scraps from the buffet table .
That just isn't true.
For one thing, we can have a rational relationship with the EU from the outside. We can argue about whether it would be better to be in the club, etc, but we are not cast into the outer darkness by being outside. The EU is pretty keen on working with countries that keep to agreements that they make.
Secondly, although the US has gone off the rails, there are still a whole bunch of countries that are not in the EU, but are democratic and respect the rule of law and the international agreements that they make: Japan, South Korea, Canada, Australia and others of various sizes and shades of grey. We can do a lot with the EU + Japan + South Korea + Canada + Australia
For another example, although Modi is running India in a way that does not completely align with our interests, and is not as democratic as one would wish, India is not yet a threat to Britain in the way that China is, and so we would be better building our relationship with India than with China.
It's really weird to say that Brexit and Trump means we have to prostrate ourselves to China. It doesn't, and doing so would damage us.
You're usually very balanced on many issues, Password, but I can't see any argument that we are not now significantly more vulnerable in this new era of imperial powerplay outside the E.U.
Putin's GRU handbook advocated for Brexit for just this reason, to weaken both the U.K., and Europe.
If you can't see it, that's because of your own lack of imagination, not anything else.
Defence is not an EU-issue, it is a national expenditure issue. Either we invest in Defence, or we do not.
The EU is frankly moot to the discussion.
It goes beyond defence. The China embassy is also about trade. Many of the people attacking the UK government over the Chinese embassy are the same people who campaigned for Brexit on the basis that we should be trading with fast growing Asian emerging market economies not the EU. The hypocrisy is breathtaking.
Not remotely hypocritical to be saying we should be trading with fast growing Asian emerging market economies notand the EU, while also saying not to sell out our security to China.
Indeed, we've both got a trade deal with the EU, and a trade deal with the CPTPP, and the CPTPP does not include China.
Almost as if he can’t be right on one thing and wrong on another thing at the same time.
Can Mr Schofield walk and chew gum?
Another case : Trump demanded that Europe increase defence spending.
Should we increase, decrease or leave defence spending the same?
Simply opposing “for the sake of” is as stupid as Trump.
Trump’s been singing that tune since 2017, and he really isn’t wrong. The US has very much been propping up European defence spending since the ‘60s.
The trick now, is to persuade him that the US component of the next generation of defence spending is very much proportional to the willingness of the US to play along with everyone else, rather than the needless antagonism of the past 48 hours which will need publically walking back. Also an understanding that most European counties don’t have executive orders, so stuff can’t just be willed into happening almost overnight.
I have one thing to say to the right wing politicians now pearl clutching over the new Chinese embassy.
You pushed Brexit and fellated Trump . The UK now has few options , out of the EU and with US UK relations in the toilet the government has no choice but to beg for scraps from the buffet table .
That just isn't true.
For one thing, we can have a rational relationship with the EU from the outside. We can argue about whether it would be better to be in the club, etc, but we are not cast into the outer darkness by being outside. The EU is pretty keen on working with countries that keep to agreements that they make.
Secondly, although the US has gone off the rails, there are still a whole bunch of countries that are not in the EU, but are democratic and respect the rule of law and the international agreements that they make: Japan, South Korea, Canada, Australia and others of various sizes and shades of grey. We can do a lot with the EU + Japan + South Korea + Canada + Australia
For another example, although Modi is running India in a way that does not completely align with our interests, and is not as democratic as one would wish, India is not yet a threat to Britain in the way that China is, and so we would be better building our relationship with India than with China.
It's really weird to say that Brexit and Trump means we have to prostrate ourselves to China. It doesn't, and doing so would damage us.
You're usually very balanced on many issues, Password, but I can't see any argument that we are not now significantly more vulnerable in this new era of imperial powerplay outside the E.U.
Putin's GRU handbook advocated for Brexit for just this reason, to weaken both the U.K., and Europe.
If you can't see it, that's because of your own lack of imagination, not anything else.
Defence is not an EU-issue, it is a national expenditure issue. Either we invest in Defence, or we do not.
The EU is frankly moot to the discussion.
The EU isn't moot. They are a large collection of countries that are mostly good allies for the UK on defence issues, which means that UK is not so alone that we have to beg China for protection from the Yanks.
They are a large collection of countries, yes, not a single country.
The countries are relevant, the EU is not. Maybe one day it will be, but for today, it is moot.
And those collection of countries aren't investing as much as they should on Defence.
And no we do not need to beg China for anything and anyone who says we should, or that we could take Chinese promises seriously, is not remotely sane or serious themselves.
The EU is borrowing €150bn for member states to spend on rearmament. You could argue that the EU is doing more to invest in defence than the UK is.
As the world is batshit crazy I was tempted not to bother. But lets do an outlier:
Number of net gains (or losses -ve) for the Dems in the House? -80 (elections suspended in zones under Martial Law) Number of net gains (or losses -ve) for the Dems in the Senate? -6 (elections suspended in states where seditious traitors were in charge of trying to rig the election) Number of MSPs won by the SNP at the Holyrood election? 60 Number of AMs won by Plaid Cymru at the Senedd election? 31 UK Party recording the largest poll lead during 2026 and by what percentage? (British Polling Council registered pollsters only). 14% Labour’s Projected National Share of the vote based on the 2026 local elections according to the BBC? 17% Number of Reform MPs on the 31st December 2026? 17 The name of the UK Prime Minister on 31st December 2026? Wes Streeting Will Andy Burnham will be an MP on 31st December 2026? Yes UK borrowing in the financial year to November 2026 (£132.3bn to November 2025). £145bn UK GDP growth in the 12 months to October 2026 (1.1% to October 2025). 0.2% Winners of the 2026 FIFA Men’s World Cup. - no winner. Tournament collapses into chaos when ICE arrests players from Senegal and shoots the manager on live TV
Interesting but of course Trump cannot suspend elections without state governor and legislature consent and nor can he send in the National Guard without Congressional approval on the grounds of war or emergency
Trump can do anything he wants. State governors will be getting arrested as well. Traitors!
State governors can also call out the State National Guards, as I said Trump cannot call out the Federal National Guard without Congressional approval. State governors also control the state police, so they certainly won't be telling them to arrest themselves, it would need the FBI
At times you do seem to be naive
The evidence is that Trump will do whatever Trump wants
Well he can't, most US police are controlled by state governors, mayors and local sheriffs in the US NOT the President. States also have their own National Guards controlled by state governors and Congress has to approve the President deploying the Federal National Guard.
The FBI is also run by its own director accountable to Congress not just POTUS
Well he can't
Well, yes he can until such time he ceases to be POTUS
Go away and read some facts about the US law enforcement system before posting again please BigG.
The President does NOT control the US police, state governors and mayors and sheriffs do. The President does not even have full control of the FBI and Federal National Guard, Congress also has oversight as does the FBI Director.
The President does control the army but by that point if he sent in the army against half his nation the US would be headed for a second civil war anyway if Congress had not impeached and convicted him and removed him from office first (and Congress could cut off funds for the army too)
Read up on what he is doing in Minnesota. The reality is that unless Congress exercises its oversight powers, which it is not now doing, then there isn't all that much that any but the biggest states can do to prevent, or even control the paramilitary organisation that is ICE.
You talk about the FBI not being under his control - and yet that organisation actively took control of the investigation of a homicide by an ICE agent, prevented state law enforcement from investigating (or even having access to evidence), and has now declared the investigation closed.
And there appears to be no way in federal law to bring a civil action against either the FBI or ICE o compel investigation.
What they have done is a clear civil rights breach (and therefore criminal under existing federal legislation), but there appears to be no avenue by which a case can be brought, without the cooperation of the Dept of Justice.
There is a slight difference between ICE actions taken against a woman they say was trying to run over one of their officials and Trump cancelling midterm elections without the say so of state governors who control their State national guards and state police.
Management of elections is also not an FBI issue
There is no difference. SA squads are marauding not only at will, they have been granted absolute immunity.
The states no longer have control of what goes on inside their borders. Trump is using Minnesota as the testbed, but the principle is very simple - the government has absolute control.
The government has declared various Dem officials to be seditious traitors and maintains that elections are fraudulent. It is perfectly rational to extend this reality to a place where the state officials are arrested and / or prevented by force from holding elections.
I don't predict these elections will be cancelled. They will say "suspended". Hold them in GOP areas, suspend them in areas full of traitors and insurrectionists. You then get a fully pliant congress where all of the dem seats have expired without an election to replace them. Congress then votes Trump to have extraordinary powers in this time of national emergency (the insurgency) and that is that.
What stops this? Trump is ill. But I doubt the regime would be willing to pack up and go to jail if he dies...
I have one thing to say to the right wing politicians now pearl clutching over the new Chinese embassy.
You pushed Brexit and fellated Trump . The UK now has few options , out of the EU and with US UK relations in the toilet the government has no choice but to beg for scraps from the buffet table .
That just isn't true.
For one thing, we can have a rational relationship with the EU from the outside. We can argue about whether it would be better to be in the club, etc, but we are not cast into the outer darkness by being outside. The EU is pretty keen on working with countries that keep to agreements that they make.
Secondly, although the US has gone off the rails, there are still a whole bunch of countries that are not in the EU, but are democratic and respect the rule of law and the international agreements that they make: Japan, South Korea, Canada, Australia and others of various sizes and shades of grey. We can do a lot with the EU + Japan + South Korea + Canada + Australia
For another example, although Modi is running India in a way that does not completely align with our interests, and is not as democratic as one would wish, India is not yet a threat to Britain in the way that China is, and so we would be better building our relationship with India than with China.
It's really weird to say that Brexit and Trump means we have to prostrate ourselves to China. It doesn't, and doing so would damage us.
You're usually very balanced on many issues, Password, but I can't see any argument that we are not now significantly more vulnerable in this new era of imperial powerplay outside the E.U.
Putin's GRU handbook advocated for Brexit for just this reason, to weaken both the U.K., and Europe.
If you can't see it, that's because of your own lack of imagination, not anything else.
Defence is not an EU-issue, it is a national expenditure issue. Either we invest in Defence, or we do not.
The EU is frankly moot to the discussion.
The EU isn't moot. They are a large collection of countries that are mostly good allies for the UK on defence issues, which means that UK is not so alone that we have to beg China for protection from the Yanks.
But their principal importance in that regard is their membership of NATO. Their grouping as the EU is secondary.
Well, NATO structures might be about to become moot too.
When I talk about this I'm less interested in the formal structures and I mostly use the EU as shorthand for "democratic European countries". Whether the UK cooperates with them via NATO, EU, JEF, OSCE, or whatever isn't really that important.
Agreed. The EU nations are allies (minus Hungary, Slovakia, Austria, and Ireland), and the USA is increasingly not.
Lab MP arguing SKS should continue to be appeaser in chief.despite being called stupid and weak overnight by the bloke whose boots he has been licking for over a year.
Trump is done - an acquaintenance of mine told me that at the start of his second term he did everything right, but this Greenland stuff is odd. If he loses British MAGA how will he cope?
I have one thing to say to the right wing politicians now pearl clutching over the new Chinese embassy.
You pushed Brexit and fellated Trump . The UK now has few options , out of the EU and with US UK relations in the toilet the government has no choice but to beg for scraps from the buffet table .
That just isn't true.
For one thing, we can have a rational relationship with the EU from the outside. We can argue about whether it would be better to be in the club, etc, but we are not cast into the outer darkness by being outside. The EU is pretty keen on working with countries that keep to agreements that they make.
Secondly, although the US has gone off the rails, there are still a whole bunch of countries that are not in the EU, but are democratic and respect the rule of law and the international agreements that they make: Japan, South Korea, Canada, Australia and others of various sizes and shades of grey. We can do a lot with the EU + Japan + South Korea + Canada + Australia
For another example, although Modi is running India in a way that does not completely align with our interests, and is not as democratic as one would wish, India is not yet a threat to Britain in the way that China is, and so we would be better building our relationship with India than with China.
It's really weird to say that Brexit and Trump means we have to prostrate ourselves to China. It doesn't, and doing so would damage us.
You're usually very balanced on many issues, Password, but I can't see any argument that we are not now significantly more vulnerable in this new era of imperial powerplay outside the E.U.
Putin's GRU handbook advocated for Brexit for just this reason, to weaken both the U.K., and Europe.
If you can't see it, that's because of your own lack of imagination, not anything else.
Defence is not an EU-issue, it is a national expenditure issue. Either we invest in Defence, or we do not.
The EU is frankly moot to the discussion.
The EU isn't moot. They are a large collection of countries that are mostly good allies for the UK on defence issues, which means that UK is not so alone that we have to beg China for protection from the Yanks.
But their principal importance in that regard is their membership of NATO. Their grouping as the EU is secondary.
Well, NATO structures might be about to become moot too.
When I talk about this I'm less interested in the formal structures and I mostly use the EU as shorthand for "democratic European countries". Whether the UK cooperates with them via NATO, EU, JEF, OSCE, or whatever isn't really that important.
Agreed. The EU nations are allies (minus Hungary, Slovakia, Austria, and Ireland), and the USA is increasingly not.
Unofficially, we seem to defend Ireland for free.
Who else is going to do it?
That's Ireland's problem to solve, not ours. Perhaps the French and Germans would be more appropriate?
I have one thing to say to the right wing politicians now pearl clutching over the new Chinese embassy.
You pushed Brexit and fellated Trump . The UK now has few options , out of the EU and with US UK relations in the toilet the government has no choice but to beg for scraps from the buffet table .
That just isn't true.
For one thing, we can have a rational relationship with the EU from the outside. We can argue about whether it would be better to be in the club, etc, but we are not cast into the outer darkness by being outside. The EU is pretty keen on working with countries that keep to agreements that they make.
Secondly, although the US has gone off the rails, there are still a whole bunch of countries that are not in the EU, but are democratic and respect the rule of law and the international agreements that they make: Japan, South Korea, Canada, Australia and others of various sizes and shades of grey. We can do a lot with the EU + Japan + South Korea + Canada + Australia
For another example, although Modi is running India in a way that does not completely align with our interests, and is not as democratic as one would wish, India is not yet a threat to Britain in the way that China is, and so we would be better building our relationship with India than with China.
It's really weird to say that Brexit and Trump means we have to prostrate ourselves to China. It doesn't, and doing so would damage us.
You're usually very balanced on many issues, Password, but I can't see any argument that we are not now significantly more vulnerable in this new era of imperial powerplay outside the E.U.
Putin's GRU handbook advocated for Brexit for just this reason, to weaken both the U.K., and Europe.
If you can't see it, that's because of your own lack of imagination, not anything else.
Defence is not an EU-issue, it is a national expenditure issue. Either we invest in Defence, or we do not.
The EU is frankly moot to the discussion.
Given that the ability of a nation to defend itself is a function of both its own defence capability and its network of alliances with other countries, the EU is certainly not moot to the discussion. Brexit undoubtedly weakened our alliance with the rest of Europe and hence weakened our ability to defend ourselves. That, together with the current poor relationship with the US, leaves us in a position more vulnerable than we have been in since the second world war.
We'll need a huge amount of investment in defence to make up for these damaged relationships.
Sorry but that’s f***ing stupid. Kemi and Nigel need to be all over this, including the judicial review.
China can have an embassy in the middle of Mayfair or Knightsbridge like the rest of them, not in a very specific location right in the middle of the City.
We all know they’re spending billions on the spy kit for this specific location.
I have one thing to say to the right wing politicians now pearl clutching over the new Chinese embassy.
You pushed Brexit and fellated Trump . The UK now has few options , out of the EU and with US UK relations in the toilet the government has no choice but to beg for scraps from the buffet table .
That just isn't true.
For one thing, we can have a rational relationship with the EU from the outside. We can argue about whether it would be better to be in the club, etc, but we are not cast into the outer darkness by being outside. The EU is pretty keen on working with countries that keep to agreements that they make.
Secondly, although the US has gone off the rails, there are still a whole bunch of countries that are not in the EU, but are democratic and respect the rule of law and the international agreements that they make: Japan, South Korea, Canada, Australia and others of various sizes and shades of grey. We can do a lot with the EU + Japan + South Korea + Canada + Australia
For another example, although Modi is running India in a way that does not completely align with our interests, and is not as democratic as one would wish, India is not yet a threat to Britain in the way that China is, and so we would be better building our relationship with India than with China.
It's really weird to say that Brexit and Trump means we have to prostrate ourselves to China. It doesn't, and doing so would damage us.
You're usually very balanced on many issues, Password, but I can't see any argument that we are not now significantly more vulnerable in this new era of imperial powerplay outside the E.U.
Putin's GRU handbook advocated for Brexit for just this reason, to weaken both the U.K., and Europe.
If you can't see it, that's because of your own lack of imagination, not anything else.
Defence is not an EU-issue, it is a national expenditure issue. Either we invest in Defence, or we do not.
The EU is frankly moot to the discussion.
The EU isn't moot. They are a large collection of countries that are mostly good allies for the UK on defence issues, which means that UK is not so alone that we have to beg China for protection from the Yanks.
They are a large collection of countries, yes, not a single country.
The countries are relevant, the EU is not. Maybe one day it will be, but for today, it is moot.
And those collection of countries aren't investing as much as they should on Defence.
And no we do not need to beg China for anything and anyone who says we should, or that we could take Chinese promises seriously, is not remotely sane or serious themselves.
The EU is borrowing €150bn for member states to spend on rearmament. You could argue that the EU is doing more to invest in defence than the UK is.
That is not a per annum figure. Over the same timescale, the UK is doing more, as are France and Germany.
As the world is batshit crazy I was tempted not to bother. But lets do an outlier:
Number of net gains (or losses -ve) for the Dems in the House? -80 (elections suspended in zones under Martial Law) Number of net gains (or losses -ve) for the Dems in the Senate? -6 (elections suspended in states where seditious traitors were in charge of trying to rig the election) Number of MSPs won by the SNP at the Holyrood election? 60 Number of AMs won by Plaid Cymru at the Senedd election? 31 UK Party recording the largest poll lead during 2026 and by what percentage? (British Polling Council registered pollsters only). 14% Labour’s Projected National Share of the vote based on the 2026 local elections according to the BBC? 17% Number of Reform MPs on the 31st December 2026? 17 The name of the UK Prime Minister on 31st December 2026? Wes Streeting Will Andy Burnham will be an MP on 31st December 2026? Yes UK borrowing in the financial year to November 2026 (£132.3bn to November 2025). £145bn UK GDP growth in the 12 months to October 2026 (1.1% to October 2025). 0.2% Winners of the 2026 FIFA Men’s World Cup. - no winner. Tournament collapses into chaos when ICE arrests players from Senegal and shoots the manager on live TV
Interesting but of course Trump cannot suspend elections without state governor and legislature consent and nor can he send in the National Guard without Congressional approval on the grounds of war or emergency
Trump can do anything he wants. State governors will be getting arrested as well. Traitors!
State governors can also call out the State National Guards, as I said Trump cannot call out the Federal National Guard without Congressional approval. State governors also control the state police, so they certainly won't be telling them to arrest themselves, it would need the FBI
At times you do seem to be naive
The evidence is that Trump will do whatever Trump wants
Well he can't, most US police are controlled by state governors, mayors and local sheriffs in the US NOT the President. States also have their own National Guards controlled by state governors and Congress has to approve the President deploying the Federal National Guard.
The FBI is also run by its own director accountable to Congress not just POTUS
Well he can't
Well, yes he can until such time he ceases to be POTUS
Go away and read some facts about the US law enforcement system before posting again please BigG.
The President does NOT control the US police, state governors and mayors and sheriffs do. The President does not even have full control of the FBI and Federal National Guard, Congress also has oversight as does the FBI Director.
The President does control the army but by that point if he sent in the army against half his nation the US would be headed for a second civil war anyway if Congress had not impeached and convicted him and removed him from office first (and Congress could cut off funds for the army too)
Read up on what he is doing in Minnesota. The reality is that unless Congress exercises its oversight powers, which it is not now doing, then there isn't all that much that any but the biggest states can do to prevent, or even control the paramilitary organisation that is ICE.
You talk about the FBI not being under his control - and yet that organisation actively took control of the investigation of a homicide by an ICE agent, prevented state law enforcement from investigating (or even having access to evidence), and has now declared the investigation closed.
And there appears to be no way in federal law to bring a civil action against either the FBI or ICE o compel investigation.
What they have done is a clear civil rights breach (and therefore criminal under existing federal legislation), but there appears to be no avenue by which a case can be brought, without the cooperation of the Dept of Justice.
There is a slight difference between ICE actions taken against a woman they say was trying to run over one of their officials and Trump cancelling midterm elections without the say so of state governors who control their State national guards and state police.
Management of elections is also not an FBI issue
There is no difference. SA squads are marauding not only at will, they have been granted absolute immunity.
The states no longer have control of what goes on inside their borders. Trump is using Minnesota as the testbed, but the principle is very simple - the government has absolute control.
The government has declared various Dem officials to be seditious traitors and maintains that elections are fraudulent. It is perfectly rational to extend this reality to a place where the state officials are arrested and / or prevented by force from holding elections.
I don't predict these elections will be cancelled. They will say "suspended". Hold them in GOP areas, suspend them in areas full of traitors and insurrectionists. You then get a fully pliant congress where all of the dem seats have expired without an election to replace them. Congress then votes Trump to have extraordinary powers in this time of national emergency (the insurgency) and that is that.
What stops this? Trump is ill. But I doubt the regime would be willing to pack up and go to jail if he dies...
I won't say this is certain to happen, but none of it is fanciful. Like it or not, the US Republicans are now a majority-fascist party, which quite firmly believes in rule by the whip, rather than by laws.
Trump is done - an acquaintenance of mine told me that at the start of his second term he did everything right, but this Greenland stuff is odd. If he loses British MAGA how will he cope?
3 tweets about trans in toilets, Sharia law in London and how coal is better than renewables and the MEGAs will be fully back on board.
I have one thing to say to the right wing politicians now pearl clutching over the new Chinese embassy.
You pushed Brexit and fellated Trump . The UK now has few options , out of the EU and with US UK relations in the toilet the government has no choice but to beg for scraps from the buffet table .
That just isn't true.
For one thing, we can have a rational relationship with the EU from the outside. We can argue about whether it would be better to be in the club, etc, but we are not cast into the outer darkness by being outside. The EU is pretty keen on working with countries that keep to agreements that they make.
Secondly, although the US has gone off the rails, there are still a whole bunch of countries that are not in the EU, but are democratic and respect the rule of law and the international agreements that they make: Japan, South Korea, Canada, Australia and others of various sizes and shades of grey. We can do a lot with the EU + Japan + South Korea + Canada + Australia
For another example, although Modi is running India in a way that does not completely align with our interests, and is not as democratic as one would wish, India is not yet a threat to Britain in the way that China is, and so we would be better building our relationship with India than with China.
It's really weird to say that Brexit and Trump means we have to prostrate ourselves to China. It doesn't, and doing so would damage us.
You're usually very balanced on many issues, Password, but I can't see any argument that we are not now significantly more vulnerable in this new era of imperial powerplay outside the E.U.
Putin's GRU handbook advocated for Brexit for just this reason, to weaken both the U.K., and Europe.
If you can't see it, that's because of your own lack of imagination, not anything else.
Defence is not an EU-issue, it is a national expenditure issue. Either we invest in Defence, or we do not.
The EU is frankly moot to the discussion.
Given that the ability of a nation to defend itself is a function of both its own defence capability and its network of alliances with other countries, the EU is certainly not moot to the discussion. Brexit undoubtedly weakened our alliance with the rest of Europe and hence weakened our ability to defend ourselves. That, together with the current poor relationship with the US, leaves us in a position more vulnerable than we have been in since the second world war.
We'll need a huge amount of investment in defence to make up for these damaged relationships.
You say undoubtedly, but there is definitely doubt about it.
How, exactly, did it do that? Considering we remain NATO allies and we remained able to work with Ukraine and other allies both pre and post Brexit.
Simply saying it is the case, does not make it so.
Almost as if he can’t be right on one thing and wrong on another thing at the same time.
Can Mr Schofield walk and chew gum?
Another case : Trump demanded that Europe increase defence spending.
Should we increase, decrease or leave defence spending the same?
Simply opposing “for the sake of” is as stupid as Trump.
Trump’s been singing that tune since 2017, and he really isn’t wrong. The US has very much been propping up European defence spending since the ‘60s.
The trick now, is to persuade him that the US component of the next generation of defence spending is very much proportional to the willingness of the US to play along with everyone else, rather than the needless antagonism of the past 48 hours which will need publically walking back. Also an understanding that most European counties don’t have executive orders, so stuff can’t just be willed into happening almost overnight.
He seems fundamentally incapable of understanding that it was useful to the US to have countries willingly in its orbit, even if they needed pushing from time to time.
His personal style demands servility, and even if they really don't want to confront him in some countries he leaves them no choice if he demands like that, since their voters will demand something.
Almost as if he can’t be right on one thing and wrong on another thing at the same time.
Can Mr Schofield walk and chew gum?
Another case : Trump demanded that Europe increase defence spending.
Should we increase, decrease or leave defence spending the same?
Simply opposing “for the sake of” is as stupid as Trump.
Trump’s been singing that tune since 2017, and he really isn’t wrong. The US has very much been propping up European defence spending since the ‘60s.
The trick now, is to persuade him that the US component of the next generation of defence spending is very much proportional to the willingness of the US to play along with everyone else, rather than the needless antagonism of the past 48 hours which will need publically walking back. Also an understanding that most European counties don’t have executive orders, so stuff can’t just be willed into happening almost overnight.
It is true that the Europeans haven't spent enough on defence, but I think you can go too far with that sort of criticism. When push came to shove and the US invoked Article 5 after 9/11, European countries in NATO responded and fought alongside the US in Afghanistan.
There were 457 UK deaths in Afghanistan, 43 Danes.
Europe paid in blood for America in Afghanistan and it's insulting in the extreme for Trump to bang on about Europe freeloading off US defence spending in that context, and I'd like to see a bit more gratitude from the Americans for the Europeans who fought and died alongside them in Afghanistan.
I have one thing to say to the right wing politicians now pearl clutching over the new Chinese embassy.
You pushed Brexit and fellated Trump . The UK now has few options , out of the EU and with US UK relations in the toilet the government has no choice but to beg for scraps from the buffet table .
That just isn't true.
For one thing, we can have a rational relationship with the EU from the outside. We can argue about whether it would be better to be in the club, etc, but we are not cast into the outer darkness by being outside. The EU is pretty keen on working with countries that keep to agreements that they make.
Secondly, although the US has gone off the rails, there are still a whole bunch of countries that are not in the EU, but are democratic and respect the rule of law and the international agreements that they make: Japan, South Korea, Canada, Australia and others of various sizes and shades of grey. We can do a lot with the EU + Japan + South Korea + Canada + Australia
For another example, although Modi is running India in a way that does not completely align with our interests, and is not as democratic as one would wish, India is not yet a threat to Britain in the way that China is, and so we would be better building our relationship with India than with China.
It's really weird to say that Brexit and Trump means we have to prostrate ourselves to China. It doesn't, and doing so would damage us.
You're usually very balanced on many issues, Password, but I can't see any argument that we are not now significantly more vulnerable in this new era of imperial powerplay outside the E.U.
Putin's GRU handbook advocated for Brexit for just this reason, to weaken both the U.K., and Europe.
If you can't see it, that's because of your own lack of imagination, not anything else.
Defence is not an EU-issue, it is a national expenditure issue. Either we invest in Defence, or we do not.
The EU is frankly moot to the discussion.
The EU isn't moot. They are a large collection of countries that are mostly good allies for the UK on defence issues, which means that UK is not so alone that we have to beg China for protection from the Yanks.
But their principal importance in that regard is their membership of NATO. Their grouping as the EU is secondary.
I have one thing to say to the right wing politicians now pearl clutching over the new Chinese embassy.
You pushed Brexit and fellated Trump . The UK now has few options , out of the EU and with US UK relations in the toilet the government has no choice but to beg for scraps from the buffet table .
That just isn't true.
For one thing, we can have a rational relationship with the EU from the outside. We can argue about whether it would be better to be in the club, etc, but we are not cast into the outer darkness by being outside. The EU is pretty keen on working with countries that keep to agreements that they make.
Secondly, although the US has gone off the rails, there are still a whole bunch of countries that are not in the EU, but are democratic and respect the rule of law and the international agreements that they make: Japan, South Korea, Canada, Australia and others of various sizes and shades of grey. We can do a lot with the EU + Japan + South Korea + Canada + Australia
For another example, although Modi is running India in a way that does not completely align with our interests, and is not as democratic as one would wish, India is not yet a threat to Britain in the way that China is, and so we would be better building our relationship with India than with China.
It's really weird to say that Brexit and Trump means we have to prostrate ourselves to China. It doesn't, and doing so would damage us.
You're usually very balanced on many issues, Password, but I can't see any argument that we are not now significantly more vulnerable in this new era of imperial powerplay outside the E.U.
Putin's GRU handbook advocated for Brexit for just this reason, to weaken both the U.K., and Europe.
If you can't see it, that's because of your own lack of imagination, not anything else.
Defence is not an EU-issue, it is a national expenditure issue. Either we invest in Defence, or we do not.
The EU is frankly moot to the discussion.
The EU isn't moot. They are a large collection of countries that are mostly good allies for the UK on defence issues, which means that UK is not so alone that we have to beg China for protection from the Yanks.
They are a large collection of countries, yes, not a single country.
The countries are relevant, the EU is not. Maybe one day it will be, but for today, it is moot.
And those collection of countries aren't investing as much as they should on Defence.
And no we do not need to beg China for anything and anyone who says we should, or that we could take Chinese promises seriously, is not remotely sane or serious themselves.
The EU is borrowing €150bn for member states to spend on rearmament. You could argue that the EU is doing more to invest in defence than the UK is.
That is not a per annum figure. Over the same timescale, the UK is doing more, as are France and Germany.
It's new money though. How much new money is the UK investing over the same period?
Almost as if he can’t be right on one thing and wrong on another thing at the same time.
Can Mr Schofield walk and chew gum?
Another case : Trump demanded that Europe increase defence spending.
Should we increase, decrease or leave defence spending the same?
Simply opposing “for the sake of” is as stupid as Trump.
Trump’s been singing that tune since 2017, and he really isn’t wrong. The US has very much been propping up European defence spending since the ‘60s.
The trick now, is to persuade him that the US component of the next generation of defence spending is very much proportional to the willingness of the US to play along with everyone else, rather than the needless antagonism of the past 48 hours which will need publically walking back. Also an understanding that most European counties don’t have executive orders, so stuff can’t just be willed into happening almost overnight.
He seems fundamentally incapable of understanding that it was useful to the US to have countries willingly in its orbit, even if they needed pushing from time to time.
His personal style demands servility, and even if they really don't want to confront him in some countries he leaves them no choice if he demands like that, since their voters will demand something.
If he were a bit more rational (I know!), he'd take the win, that European nations are now pushing up defence expenditure.
However, the more that one contributes, the greater one's say, and he does not like that.
I have one thing to say to the right wing politicians now pearl clutching over the new Chinese embassy.
You pushed Brexit and fellated Trump . The UK now has few options , out of the EU and with US UK relations in the toilet the government has no choice but to beg for scraps from the buffet table .
That just isn't true.
For one thing, we can have a rational relationship with the EU from the outside. We can argue about whether it would be better to be in the club, etc, but we are not cast into the outer darkness by being outside. The EU is pretty keen on working with countries that keep to agreements that they make.
Secondly, although the US has gone off the rails, there are still a whole bunch of countries that are not in the EU, but are democratic and respect the rule of law and the international agreements that they make: Japan, South Korea, Canada, Australia and others of various sizes and shades of grey. We can do a lot with the EU + Japan + South Korea + Canada + Australia
For another example, although Modi is running India in a way that does not completely align with our interests, and is not as democratic as one would wish, India is not yet a threat to Britain in the way that China is, and so we would be better building our relationship with India than with China.
It's really weird to say that Brexit and Trump means we have to prostrate ourselves to China. It doesn't, and doing so would damage us.
You're usually very balanced on many issues, Password, but I can't see any argument that we are not now significantly more vulnerable in this new era of imperial powerplay outside the E.U.
Putin's GRU handbook advocated for Brexit for just this reason, to weaken both the U.K., and Europe.
If you can't see it, that's because of your own lack of imagination, not anything else.
Defence is not an EU-issue, it is a national expenditure issue. Either we invest in Defence, or we do not.
The EU is frankly moot to the discussion.
The EU isn't moot. They are a large collection of countries that are mostly good allies for the UK on defence issues, which means that UK is not so alone that we have to beg China for protection from the Yanks.
They are a large collection of countries, yes, not a single country.
The countries are relevant, the EU is not. Maybe one day it will be, but for today, it is moot.
And those collection of countries aren't investing as much as they should on Defence.
And no we do not need to beg China for anything and anyone who says we should, or that we could take Chinese promises seriously, is not remotely sane or serious themselves.
The EU is borrowing €150bn for member states to spend on rearmament. You could argue that the EU is doing more to invest in defence than the UK is.
A one off €150bn is about 1% of EU GDP. It's basically nothing in the grander scheme. Defence spending in the EU should be around €500bn per year and in the UK it should be about £120bn per year. That gives us real hard power to tell the Chinese, Americans, Russians and anyone else who wants to have a go to get fucked. Do you think that Trump would be trying it on with Greenland if collective European defence spending was $700bn per year? Would China be able to dictate terms to the UK on having a literal spying outpost in London if we had 4% of GDP spent on defence per year? Absolutely fucking not.
Europe is weak globally because we have underinvested in hard power for decades and tried to fool ourselves into thinking that soft/cultural (in our case) or regulatory (for the EU) power can make up for it. It can't. In a world where might is right, we find ourselves completely lacking in any hard currency to get our way. For that we have to live with Trump attempting to annex part of a European country.
European officials should brace for sharp remarks from Trump at the Davos forum
Axios reports that Trump is heading to Davos more aggressive and ambitious than ever.
“Trump will arrive in Davos feeling more confident than ever in his ability to shape global events, and increasingly willing to pressure and publicly dress down anyone who stands in his way.
A senior US official warned that participants of the annual gathering of the global elite should prepare for harsh and offensive comments when Trump takes the stage on Wednesday.”
All Europe really needs to control Trump at Davos is a pretty young lady needing help with getting the contents out of a particularly viscous bottle of "catsup".
Isn't that now the time honoured way of dealing with pesky Scottish politicians?
If only there was a way to rent young and pretty ladies in Davos…
Almost as if he can’t be right on one thing and wrong on another thing at the same time.
Can Mr Schofield walk and chew gum?
Another case : Trump demanded that Europe increase defence spending.
Should we increase, decrease or leave defence spending the same?
Simply opposing “for the sake of” is as stupid as Trump.
Trump’s been singing that tune since 2017, and he really isn’t wrong. The US has very much been propping up European defence spending since the ‘60s.
The trick now, is to persuade him that the US component of the next generation of defence spending is very much proportional to the willingness of the US to play along with everyone else, rather than the needless antagonism of the past 48 hours which will need publically walking back. Also an understanding that most European counties don’t have executive orders, so stuff can’t just be willed into happening almost overnight.
It is true that the Europeans haven't spent enough on defence, but I think you can go too far with that sort of criticism. When push came to shove and the US invoked Article 5 after 9/11, European countries in NATO responded and fought alongside the US in Afghanistan.
There were 457 UK deaths in Afghanistan, 43 Danes.
Europe paid in blood for America in Afghanistan and it's insulting in the extreme for Trump to bang on about Europe freeloading off US defence spending in that context, and I'd like to see a bit more gratitude from the Americans for the Europeans who fought and died alongside them in Afghanistan.
As the world is batshit crazy I was tempted not to bother. But lets do an outlier:
Number of net gains (or losses -ve) for the Dems in the House? -80 (elections suspended in zones under Martial Law) Number of net gains (or losses -ve) for the Dems in the Senate? -6 (elections suspended in states where seditious traitors were in charge of trying to rig the election) Number of MSPs won by the SNP at the Holyrood election? 60 Number of AMs won by Plaid Cymru at the Senedd election? 31 UK Party recording the largest poll lead during 2026 and by what percentage? (British Polling Council registered pollsters only). 14% Labour’s Projected National Share of the vote based on the 2026 local elections according to the BBC? 17% Number of Reform MPs on the 31st December 2026? 17 The name of the UK Prime Minister on 31st December 2026? Wes Streeting Will Andy Burnham will be an MP on 31st December 2026? Yes UK borrowing in the financial year to November 2026 (£132.3bn to November 2025). £145bn UK GDP growth in the 12 months to October 2026 (1.1% to October 2025). 0.2% Winners of the 2026 FIFA Men’s World Cup. - no winner. Tournament collapses into chaos when ICE arrests players from Senegal and shoots the manager on live TV
Interesting but of course Trump cannot suspend elections without state governor and legislature consent and nor can he send in the National Guard without Congressional approval on the grounds of war or emergency
Trump can do anything he wants. State governors will be getting arrested as well. Traitors!
State governors can also call out the State National Guards, as I said Trump cannot call out the Federal National Guard without Congressional approval. State governors also control the state police, so they certainly won't be telling them to arrest themselves, it would need the FBI
At times you do seem to be naive
The evidence is that Trump will do whatever Trump wants
Well he can't, most US police are controlled by state governors, mayors and local sheriffs in the US NOT the President. States also have their own National Guards controlled by state governors and Congress has to approve the President deploying the Federal National Guard.
The FBI is also run by its own director accountable to Congress not just POTUS
Well he can't
Well, yes he can until such time he ceases to be POTUS
Go away and read some facts about the US law enforcement system before posting again please BigG.
The President does NOT control the US police, state governors and mayors and sheriffs do. The President does not even have full control of the FBI and Federal National Guard, Congress also has oversight as does the FBI Director.
The President does control the army but by that point if he sent in the army against half his nation the US would be headed for a second civil war anyway if Congress had not impeached and convicted him and removed him from office first (and Congress could cut off funds for the army too)
Read up on what he is doing in Minnesota. The reality is that unless Congress exercises its oversight powers, which it is not now doing, then there isn't all that much that any but the biggest states can do to prevent, or even control the paramilitary organisation that is ICE.
You talk about the FBI not being under his control - and yet that organisation actively took control of the investigation of a homicide by an ICE agent, prevented state law enforcement from investigating (or even having access to evidence), and has now declared the investigation closed.
And there appears to be no way in federal law to bring a civil action against either the FBI or ICE o compel investigation.
What they have done is a clear civil rights breach (and therefore criminal under existing federal legislation), but there appears to be no avenue by which a case can be brought, without the cooperation of the Dept of Justice.
There is a slight difference between ICE actions taken against a woman they say was trying to run over one of their officials and Trump cancelling midterm elections without the say so of state governors who control their State national guards and state police.
Management of elections is also not an FBI issue
There is no difference. SA squads are marauding not only at will, they have been granted absolute immunity.
The states no longer have control of what goes on inside their borders. Trump is using Minnesota as the testbed, but the principle is very simple - the government has absolute control.
The government has declared various Dem officials to be seditious traitors and maintains that elections are fraudulent. It is perfectly rational to extend this reality to a place where the state officials are arrested and / or prevented by force from holding elections.
I don't predict these elections will be cancelled. They will say "suspended". Hold them in GOP areas, suspend them in areas full of traitors and insurrectionists. You then get a fully pliant congress where all of the dem seats have expired without an election to replace them. Congress then votes Trump to have extraordinary powers in this time of national emergency (the insurgency) and that is that.
What stops this? Trump is ill. But I doubt the regime would be willing to pack up and go to jail if he dies...
I don't think it's anywhere near as clearcut as that. Note that Minneapolis is a pretty small city by US standards (which is probably why they're targeting it), so ICE has a disproportionate effect for the numbers deployed.
I've little doubt that you're right about the administration trying stuff on ahead the midterms, but it's far from a done deal, and there is significant pushback.
Any outcome between your nightmare scenario and a Democratic landslide is possible.
I have one thing to say to the right wing politicians now pearl clutching over the new Chinese embassy.
You pushed Brexit and fellated Trump . The UK now has few options , out of the EU and with US UK relations in the toilet the government has no choice but to beg for scraps from the buffet table .
That just isn't true.
For one thing, we can have a rational relationship with the EU from the outside. We can argue about whether it would be better to be in the club, etc, but we are not cast into the outer darkness by being outside. The EU is pretty keen on working with countries that keep to agreements that they make.
Secondly, although the US has gone off the rails, there are still a whole bunch of countries that are not in the EU, but are democratic and respect the rule of law and the international agreements that they make: Japan, South Korea, Canada, Australia and others of various sizes and shades of grey. We can do a lot with the EU + Japan + South Korea + Canada + Australia
For another example, although Modi is running India in a way that does not completely align with our interests, and is not as democratic as one would wish, India is not yet a threat to Britain in the way that China is, and so we would be better building our relationship with India than with China.
It's really weird to say that Brexit and Trump means we have to prostrate ourselves to China. It doesn't, and doing so would damage us.
You're usually very balanced on many issues, Password, but I can't see any argument that we are not now significantly more vulnerable in this new era of imperial powerplay outside the E.U.
Putin's GRU handbook advocated for Brexit for just this reason, to weaken both the U.K., and Europe.
If you can't see it, that's because of your own lack of imagination, not anything else.
Defence is not an EU-issue, it is a national expenditure issue. Either we invest in Defence, or we do not.
The EU is frankly moot to the discussion.
The EU isn't moot. They are a large collection of countries that are mostly good allies for the UK on defence issues, which means that UK is not so alone that we have to beg China for protection from the Yanks.
They are a large collection of countries, yes, not a single country.
The countries are relevant, the EU is not. Maybe one day it will be, but for today, it is moot.
And those collection of countries aren't investing as much as they should on Defence.
And no we do not need to beg China for anything and anyone who says we should, or that we could take Chinese promises seriously, is not remotely sane or serious themselves.
The EU is borrowing €150bn for member states to spend on rearmament. You could argue that the EU is doing more to invest in defence than the UK is.
A one off €150bn is about 1% of EU GDP. It's basically nothing in the grander scheme. Defence spending in the EU should be around €500bn per year and in the UK it should be about £120bn per year. That gives us real hard power to tell the Chinese, Americans, Russians and anyone else who wants to have a go to get fucked. Do you think that Trump would be trying it on with Greenland if collective European defence spending was $700bn per year? Would China be able to dictate terms to the UK on having a literal spying outpost in London if we had 4% of GDP spent on defence per year? Absolutely fucking not.
Europe is weak globally because we have underinvested in hard power for decades and tried to fool ourselves into thinking that soft/cultural (in our case) or regulatory (for the EU) power can make up for it. It can't. In a world where might is right, we find ourselves completely lacking in any hard currency to get our way. For that we have to live with Trump attempting to annex part of a European country.
I completely agree that the UK and Europe should both be spending more on defence, and that both still don't get that the world has changed and requires a big change in response.
I only raised the €150bn as an example that the EU is not moot when it comes to defence. If Europe does get its act together on defence then the role of the EU as part of that is likely to be larger than it is now.
People who dismiss the EU on defence, as Barty does, are living in the past and not paying attention to how the EU is changing (albeit too slowly and not enough).
I have one thing to say to the right wing politicians now pearl clutching over the new Chinese embassy.
You pushed Brexit and fellated Trump . The UK now has few options , out of the EU and with US UK relations in the toilet the government has no choice but to beg for scraps from the buffet table .
That just isn't true.
For one thing, we can have a rational relationship with the EU from the outside. We can argue about whether it would be better to be in the club, etc, but we are not cast into the outer darkness by being outside. The EU is pretty keen on working with countries that keep to agreements that they make.
Secondly, although the US has gone off the rails, there are still a whole bunch of countries that are not in the EU, but are democratic and respect the rule of law and the international agreements that they make: Japan, South Korea, Canada, Australia and others of various sizes and shades of grey. We can do a lot with the EU + Japan + South Korea + Canada + Australia
For another example, although Modi is running India in a way that does not completely align with our interests, and is not as democratic as one would wish, India is not yet a threat to Britain in the way that China is, and so we would be better building our relationship with India than with China.
It's really weird to say that Brexit and Trump means we have to prostrate ourselves to China. It doesn't, and doing so would damage us.
You're usually very balanced on many issues, Password, but I can't see any argument that we are not now significantly more vulnerable in this new era of imperial powerplay outside the E.U.
Putin's GRU handbook advocated for Brexit for just this reason, to weaken both the U.K., and Europe.
If you can't see it, that's because of your own lack of imagination, not anything else.
Defence is not an EU-issue, it is a national expenditure issue. Either we invest in Defence, or we do not.
The EU is frankly moot to the discussion.
The EU isn't moot. They are a large collection of countries that are mostly good allies for the UK on defence issues, which means that UK is not so alone that we have to beg China for protection from the Yanks.
They are a large collection of countries, yes, not a single country.
The countries are relevant, the EU is not. Maybe one day it will be, but for today, it is moot.
And those collection of countries aren't investing as much as they should on Defence.
And no we do not need to beg China for anything and anyone who says we should, or that we could take Chinese promises seriously, is not remotely sane or serious themselves.
The EU is borrowing €150bn for member states to spend on rearmament. You could argue that the EU is doing more to invest in defence than the UK is.
A one off €150bn is about 1% of EU GDP. It's basically nothing in the grander scheme. Defence spending in the EU should be around €500bn per year and in the UK it should be about £120bn per year. That gives us real hard power to tell the Chinese, Americans, Russians and anyone else who wants to have a go to get fucked. Do you think that Trump would be trying it on with Greenland if collective European defence spending was $700bn per year? Would China be able to dictate terms to the UK on having a literal spying outpost in London if we had 4% of GDP spent on defence per year? Absolutely fucking not.
Europe is weak globally because we have underinvested in hard power for decades and tried to fool ourselves into thinking that soft/cultural (in our case) or regulatory (for the EU) power can make up for it. It can't. In a world where might is right, we find ourselves completely lacking in any hard currency to get our way. For that we have to live with Trump attempting to annex part of a European country.
I completely agree that the UK and Europe should both be spending more on defence, and that both still don't get that the world has changed and requires a big change in response.
I only raised the €150bn as an example that the EU is not moot when it comes to defence. If Europe does get its act together on defence then the role of the EU as part of that is likely to be larger than it is now.
People who dismiss the EU on defence, as Barty does, are living in the past and not paying attention to how the EU is changing (albeit too slowly and not enough).
I dismiss it because the EU fund is being bogged down in the same petty arguments as any pan European defence project. Where do the jobs go, why should Germany bankroll the French defence industry. Why isn't Thales included in this part. Why is the UK getting any part of this fund. Why don't we just build the tanks in Germany instead.
Unless that stops no one will take the EU seriously on defence matters.
Unusually we have 2 local by-elections today, There is a Ref defence in Derbyshire and a Lab defence in Amber Valley (which is in Derbyshire).
The Lab will go Reform. The Ref defence is interesting. Green came second last year with the Cons a close third. Will be telling contest which any of those three could take. Particularly as Ref are now the Establishment not the insurgents in Derbyshire with a huge majority on the Council.
Comments
Number of net gains (or losses -ve) for the Dems in the House?
20
Number of net gains (or losses -ve) for the Dems in the Senate?
3
Number of MSPs won by the SNP at the Holyrood election?
55
Number of AMs won by Plaid Cymru at the Senedd election?
35
UK Party recording the largest poll lead during 2026 and by what percentage? (British Polling Council registered pollsters only).
Reform - 14 (assume we include polls reported earlier in Jan 2026)
Labour’s Projected National Share of the vote based on the 2026 local elections according to the BBC?
22
Number of Reform MPs on the 31st December 2026?
9
The name of the UK Prime Minister on 31st December 2026?
Sir Keir Starmer
Will Andy Burnham will be an MP on 31st December 2026?
No
UK borrowing in the financial year to November 2026 (£132.3bn to November 2025).
140
UK GDP growth in the 12 months to October 2026 (1.1% to October 2025).
1.3
Winners of the 2026 FIFA Men’s World Cup.
England
#competition
Well, yes he can until such time he ceases to be POTUS
Strap in.
Strong rumours that Trump will invoke the Insurrection Act today in Minnesota. He needs no authorisation and is not checked by the law or the courts or congress.
You said state governors control state police so won't "arrest themselves". Who said anything about the states? I am talking about Trump SA goons. The Insurrection Act puts state police on the side of the insurrection, so they will be shot like anyone else.
I do understand the normalcy bias. This is America so this can't be happening. But it IS happening, live, in front of your eyes.
The President does NOT control the US police, state governors and mayors and sheriffs do. The President does not even have full control of the FBI and Federal National Guard, Congress also has oversight as does the FBI Director.
The President does control the army but by that point if he sent in the army against half his nation the US would be headed for a second civil war anyway if Congress had not impeached and convicted him and removed him from office first (and Congress could cut off funds for the army too)
Axios reports that Trump is heading to Davos more aggressive and ambitious than ever.
“Trump will arrive in Davos feeling more confident than ever in his ability to shape global events, and increasingly willing to pressure and publicly dress down anyone who stands in his way.
A senior US official warned that participants of the annual gathering of the global elite should prepare for harsh and offensive comments when Trump takes the stage on Wednesday.”
https://x.com/visegrad24/status/2013573865591496739
Cool cool
That said, MI5 seem to be very relaxed about the Chinese Embassy, so pressure on the British government to up their game should probably be targeted at more important issues.
“Yes you can have your embassy, it’s just that the process will last 230 years”.
Oh, I can't seem to find my chequebook...
And I do not intend immersing myself in US law
Any different to your lot hosing money at pensioners ?
Why not link pensions and benefits to GDP growth ?
Isn't that now the time honoured way of dealing with pesky Scottish politicians?
Vance is Nato-hostile.
Careful for what we wish for.
Barnet?
Remember that your division between state and federal now has a 2nd division - GOP state and Democrat state. The GOP ones are safe, its the ones where the elected are Democrats who are in trouble.
Minnesota makes its own laws and controls its own police, yes? And yet the SA are running riot shooting people in the street and the state can do nothing. They could invoke their national guard and try and shoot it out, but that will immediately lead to them being federalised and/or the Insurrection Act.
Congress? What Congress? The odd GOP senator says "this isn't the policy of the government, we are co-equal branches" but in practice they are already irrelevant.
You are quoting the book. Which does not apply any more.
https://open.spotify.com/episode/1uA2RRDBdTtp2uwZ4xhkwN?si=6XhMA6niR22CUoqL4KHOow&t=8706&pi=SRDKfZabS0mrr
Trump has already federalised chunks of the National Guard, and engaged in endless manoeuvres to avoid the rule of law.
And Congress is self-castrated at present - with a majority (albeit a falling majority on some issues) of bootlickers and cowards, which will fight tooth and nail to defend Trump's lawbreaking.
The weakness of the left and standard sucking up to the biggest bully in the room is going to ruin this country. The UK is a big country, we have a permanent seat on the UNSC, we have nuclear weapons and we have the 5/6th largest economy in the world. It's time to act like it and tell the Chinese, Americans, Russians and others to get fucked. If that costs us 0.3% of GDP then that's the price we'll have to pay, maybe the government should look at cutting welfare and pensions.
The reality is that unless Congress exercises its oversight powers, which it is not now doing, then there isn't all that much that any but the biggest states can do to prevent, or even control the paramilitary organisation that is ICE.
You talk about the FBI not being under his control - and yet that organisation actively took control of the investigation of a homicide by an ICE agent, prevented state law enforcement from investigating (or even having access to evidence), and has now declared the investigation closed.
And there appears to be no way in federal law to bring a civil action against either the FBI or ICE o compel investigation.
What they have done is a clear civil rights breach (and therefore criminal under existing federal legislation), but there appears to be no avenue by which a case can be brought, without the cooperation of the Dept of Justice.
You pushed Brexit and fellated Trump . The UK now has few options , out of the EU and with US UK relations in the toilet the government has no choice but to beg for scraps from the buffet table .
India is the big player in the Chagos deal, as they battle to keep the regions hearts and minds out the pockets of the Chinese, and Imperial Britain Bashing is India and US club of choice for last 80 years of our friendship with both.
And would be adversely affected if the EU makes such a move.
https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/speech_26_150
..So while on paper the market of 450 million Europeans is open to them, it is far more complicated in reality. And that acts as a handbrake on the growth and profit potential of companies. This is why we need a new approach. We will soon put forward our 28th regime. The ultimate aim is to create a new truly European company structure. We call it EU Inc., with a single and simple set of rules that will apply seamlessly all over our Union. So that business can operate across Member States much more easily. Our entrepreneurs, the innovative companies, will be able to register a company in any Member State within 48 hours – fully online. They will enjoy the same capital regime all across the EU. Ultimately, we need a system where companies can do business and raise financing seamlessly across Europe – just as easily as in uniform markets like the US or China. If we get this right – and if we move fast enough – this will not only help EU companies grow. But it will attract investment from across the world.
Which brings me to the second focus – investment and capital. We are now building the Savings and Investment Union. We need a large-scale, deep and liquid capital market that attracts a wide range of investors. This will allow businesses to find the funding they need – including equity – at lower cost here in Europe. We have made proposals on market integration and supervision to ensure our financial market is more integrated. This covers trading, post-trading, and asset management – as well as driving innovation and making our supervisory framework more efficient. This will help ensure that capital flows where it is needed – to scaleups, to SMEs, to innovation, to industry.
Third priority: building an interconnected and affordable energy market – a true energy union...
Again, if this actually happens, it will not be to the UK's advantage to be outside such a system.
For one thing, we can have a rational relationship with the EU from the outside. We can argue about whether it would be better to be in the club, etc, but we are not cast into the outer darkness by being outside. The EU is pretty keen on working with countries that keep to agreements that they make.
Secondly, although the US has gone off the rails, there are still a whole bunch of countries that are not in the EU, but are democratic and respect the rule of law and the international agreements that they make: Japan, South Korea, Canada, Australia and others of various sizes and shades of grey. We can do a lot with the EU + Japan + South Korea + Canada + Australia
For another example, although Modi is running India in a way that does not completely align with our interests, and is not as democratic as one would wish, India is not yet a threat to Britain in the way that China is, and so we would be better building our relationship with India than with China.
It's really weird to say that Brexit and Trump means we have to prostrate ourselves to China. It doesn't, and doing so would damage us.
Back in 2022 there were lots of confident assertions that the West was going to drown Russia in a tide of munitions, but Russia seems to have done a better job at ramping up production of war material.
Otherwise we'd have cancelled some of our useless stuff and helped pay for stepping up production.
France, Italy and Denmark have shelled out for actual orders (ditto Germany, Sweden and Denmark for IRIS-T).
We're still working out how to pay the US for more F35s, and what to do about Ajax.
Putin's GRU handbook advocated for Brexit for just this reason, to weaken both the U.K., and Europe.
1 Number of net gains (or losses -ve) for the Dems in the House? Question will be voided by there not being a free and fair election
2 Number of net gains (or losses -ve) for the Dems in the Senate? ditto
3 Number of MSPs won by the SNP at the Holyrood election? 58
4 Number of AMs won by Plaid Cymru at the Senedd election? 32
5 UK Party recording the largest poll lead during 2026 and by what percentage? (British Polling Council registered pollsters only). Reform 14 points January 2026
6 Labour’s Projected National Share of the vote based on the 2026 local elections according to the BBC? 21
7 Number of Reform MPs on the 31st December 2026? 8
8 The name of the UK Prime Minister on 31st December 2026? Starmer
9 Will Andy Burnham will be an MP on 31st December 2026?No
10 UK borrowing in the financial year to November 2026 (£132.3bn to November 2025).£!35 bn
11 UK GDP growth in the 12 months to October 2026 (1.1% to October 2025). 1.5
12 Winners of the 2026 FIFA Men’s World Cup. Argentina
#competition
I'd vote to rejoin the EU without any hesitation, and I think it would be in Britain's interests to be inside the EU.
But I don't think that the UK is so weak outside the EU that we have no choice but to become a vassal state of China, as implied by having to "beg for scraps" in the context of approving the Chinese embassy.
The EU has an interest in a mutually beneficial relationship with the UK, and we can choose to maintain a good relationship with them.
Defence is not an EU-issue, it is a national expenditure issue. Either we invest in Defence, or we do not.
The EU is frankly moot to the discussion.
When I talk about this I'm less interested in the formal structures and I mostly use the EU as shorthand for "democratic European countries". Whether the UK cooperates with them via NATO, EU, JEF, OSCE, or whatever isn't really that important.
However if it includes the orange child and truth social i could be persuaded.
https://www.itv.com/news/calendar/2026-01-19/more-than-1000-people-injured-in-dog-attacks-in-south-yorkshire-in-2025
Management of elections is also not an FBI issue
Number of net gains (or losses -ve) for the Dems in the House? +9
Number of net gains (or losses -ve) for the Dems in the Senate? +2
Number of MSPs won by the SNP at the Holyrood election? 58
Number of AMs won by Plaid Cymru at the Senedd election? 32
UK Party recording the largest poll lead during 2026 and by what percentage? Reform 14
Labour’s Projected National Share of the vote based on the 2026 local elections according to the BBC? 18%
Number of Reform MPs on the 31st December 2026? 13
The name of the UK Prime Minister on 31st December 2026? Starmer
Will Andy Burnham will be an MP on 31st December 2026? No
UK borrowing in the financial year to November 2026 (£132.3bn to November 2025). £152bn
UK GDP growth in the 12 months to October 2026 (1.1% to October 2025). +0.4%
Winners of the 2026 FIFA Men’s World Cup. France
(If I win with the above I'll consider using the prize to buy a hat to eat)
The countries are relevant, the EU is not. Maybe one day it will be, but for today, it is moot.
And those collection of countries aren't investing as much as they should on Defence.
And no we do not need to beg China for anything and anyone who says we should, or that we could take Chinese promises seriously, is not remotely sane or serious themselves.
Indeed, we've both got a trade deal with the EU, and a trade deal with the CPTPP, and the CPTPP does not include China.
The trick now, is to persuade him that the US component of the next generation of defence spending is very much proportional to the willingness of the US to play along with everyone else, rather than the needless antagonism of the past 48 hours which will need publically walking back. Also an understanding that most European counties don’t have executive orders, so stuff can’t just be willed into happening almost overnight.
The states no longer have control of what goes on inside their borders. Trump is using Minnesota as the testbed, but the principle is very simple - the government has absolute control.
The government has declared various Dem officials to be seditious traitors and maintains that elections are fraudulent. It is perfectly rational to extend this reality to a place where the state officials are arrested and / or prevented by force from holding elections.
I don't predict these elections will be cancelled. They will say "suspended". Hold them in GOP areas, suspend them in areas full of traitors and insurrectionists. You then get a fully pliant congress where all of the dem seats have expired without an election to replace them. Congress then votes Trump to have extraordinary powers in this time of national emergency (the insurgency) and that is that.
What stops this? Trump is ill. But I doubt the regime would be willing to pack up and go to jail if he dies...
https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/53911-what-do-britons-think-europe-should-do-if-the-usa-seizes-greenland
Once again Reform the outliers.
We'll need a huge amount of investment in defence to make up for these damaged relationships.
China can have an embassy in the middle of Mayfair or Knightsbridge like the rest of them, not in a very specific location right in the middle of the City.
We all know they’re spending billions on the spy kit for this specific location.
How, exactly, did it do that? Considering we remain NATO allies and we remained able to work with Ukraine and other allies both pre and post Brexit.
Simply saying it is the case, does not make it so.
His personal style demands servility, and even if they really don't want to confront him in some countries he leaves them no choice if he demands like that, since their voters will demand something.
There were 457 UK deaths in Afghanistan, 43 Danes.
Europe paid in blood for America in Afghanistan and it's insulting in the extreme for Trump to bang on about Europe freeloading off US defence spending in that context, and I'd like to see a bit more gratitude from the Americans for the Europeans who fought and died alongside them in Afghanistan.
However, the more that one contributes, the greater one's say, and he does not like that.
Europe is weak globally because we have underinvested in hard power for decades and tried to fool ourselves into thinking that soft/cultural (in our case) or regulatory (for the EU) power can make up for it. It can't. In a world where might is right, we find ourselves completely lacking in any hard currency to get our way. For that we have to live with Trump attempting to annex part of a European country.
1. +11
2. +3
3. 56
4. 31
5. Reform 14%
6. 22%
7. 11
8. Starmer
9. No
10. £129.1 billion
11. 1.7%
12. Spain.
Thank Ben.
Note that Minneapolis is a pretty small city by US standards (which is probably why they're targeting it), so ICE has a disproportionate effect for the numbers deployed.
I've little doubt that you're right about the administration trying stuff on ahead the midterms, but it's far from a done deal, and there is significant pushback.
Any outcome between your nightmare scenario and a Democratic landslide is possible.
I only raised the €150bn as an example that the EU is not moot when it comes to defence. If Europe does get its act together on defence then the role of the EU as part of that is likely to be larger than it is now.
People who dismiss the EU on defence, as Barty does, are living in the past and not paying attention to how the EU is changing (albeit too slowly and not enough).
Unless that stops no one will take the EU seriously on defence matters.
The Ref defence is interesting. Green came second last year with the Cons a close third.
Will be telling contest which any of those three could take.
Particularly as Ref are now the Establishment not the insurgents in Derbyshire with a huge majority on the Council.