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Alas poor Jenrick, I knew him – politicalbetting.com

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  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 21,985
    edited January 19
    Eabhal said:

    Horrible thing to say, but if the Capitol Police had mown down those traitors en masse I don't think we'd be here today. That degree of tolerance for sedition has ultimately undermined US democracy.

    Do you know whether it was tolerance, or was there a lack of manpower, ammunition, etc?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 54,805
    Barnesian said:

    Barnesian said:

    I still think it exceedingly unlikely that Trump is going to “invade” Greenland, not least because the idea is incredibly unpopular with the American public.

    However, the man is a deranged sociopath, so it can’t be ruled out 100%. His administration is stuffed full of fascists, gangsters, and crooks, so we can’t rely on them to hold him back, and the same goes for the “GOP”.

    The key problem is Ukraine.
    So long as it is thought that the U.S. is an indispensable aid to Ukrainian defence, Europe (and the UK) have limited choices. They can’t break with the U.S. entirely.

    The best bet is to appeal to the American public itself somehow. As I say, a Greenlandic conquest is not at all popular. And the midterms get closer one day at a time.

    I don't think there are any limits to how far he'd go.

    We have to be firm and hope the American electorate realise he's jumped the shark.

    Not everyone is as mad as him.
    I don't believe they do.

    The public support for the ICE cop who blew the mom away, even after they have viewed compelling evidence that it was unlawful, is around 50% on polls I have seen.

    And if he is planning on cheating in November it won't matter what his level of support is at. Starmer would give his right arm for Trump approval levels.
    Public support for the ICE cop is not around 50%

    Quinnipiac University Poll: 53% of registered voters said the shooting was not justified, while 35% said it was justified.
    CNN/SSRS Poll: 56% of U.S. adults labeled the use of force as "inappropriate," compared to 26% who called it "appropriate".
    Yahoo News/YouGov Poll: 53% stated the agent was not justified in shooting Good, while 28% believed it was justified.
    Perhaps I should have stated only 50% believe the shooting was unlawful.
    Currently 55% disapprove of Trump. 42% approve.

    Also about 55% think the shooting was unjustified (same % as disapprove of Trump)
    But only about 30% think it was justified compared with the 42% who approve of Trump.
    The other 12% who approve of Trump are sitting on their hands on this, sucking their teeth.
    Some interesting polling here. It does look like a lot of Republicans are giving the party "the Irish Goodbye" and simply no longer identifying as Republican.

    https://www.gelliottmorris.com/p/backlash-to-trump-has-been-higher

    It remains astonishing to me that so many Americans still support him. On Channe 4 news tonight Trumps former Ambassador to Denmark from his first term was defending him to the hilt, no mattter how bonkers. It was worth a watch.

    It isn't just Trump that is crazy, he has a nuclear armed Jonestown drinking his Kool Aid.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 36,542
    MaxPB said:

    Can we not give Trump a 20 year lease to Greenland with a break clause at every US election cycle? The incoming POTUS will get rid as soon as.

    That presupposes there will be further US election cycles.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 60,037
    a

    Paging @viewcode & @Taz and all my fellow geeks.

    ‘Blake’s 7’ Reboot In The Works From ‘The Last Of Us’ Director Peter Hoar & ‘A Good Girl’s Guide To Murder’ Exec Matthew Bouch

    https://deadline.com/2026/01/blakes-7-reboot-peter-hoar-matthew-bouch-multitude-productions-1236682580/

    Oh Christ

    Just no.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,866
    Unfortunately in trump and Starmer we have seen examples of immense stupidity in terms of land negotiations . Trump just wants to steal and Starmer wants to just give away chagos islands in perhaps the worst ever deal by a pm. Cannot we have sensible politicians in the west?
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,866
    Unfortunately in trump and Starmer we have seen examples of immense stupidity in terms of land negotiations . Trump just wants to steal and Starmer wants to just give away chagos islands in perhaps the worst ever deal by a pm. Cannot we have sensible politicians in the west?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 21,985
    edited January 19

    Unfortunately in trump and Starmer we have seen examples of immense stupidity in terms of land negotiations . Trump just wants to steal and Starmer wants to just give away chagos islands in perhaps the worst ever deal by a pm. Cannot we have sensible politicians in the west?

    If the US wasn't using Diego Garcia as an airbase would the UK be using it?

    If not, why should we care at all anymore?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 133,075
    edited January 19
    'I do not want to reconcile with my family," Brooklyn Peltz-Beckham has said in a statement addressing his strained relationship with his parents.

    Peltz-Beckham, the eldest child of Sir David Beckham and Lady Victoria Beckham, accused his parents of "trying endlessly to ruin" his relationship with Nicola Peltz-Beckham, both before and after their wedding.

    "My wife has been consistently disrespected by my family, no matter how hard we've tried to come together as one," he wrote on Instagram on Monday..He also accused his mother of "hijacking" their first dance.

    "In front of 500 wedding guests, Marc Anthony called me to the stage, where in the schedule was planned to be my romantic dance with my wife but instead my mum was waiting to dance with me instead," he wrote.

    "She danced very inappropriately on me in front of everyone. I've never felt more uncomfortable or humiliated in my entire life."

    He said he and his wife had chosen to renew their vows in 2025 to create new memories "that bring us joy and happiness, not anxiety and embarrassment".

    In his post, Peltz-Beckham also said he and his wife had travelled to London for Sir David's birthday but were "rejected for a week as we waited in our hotel room trying to plan quality time with him".

    The pair were absent from Sir David's 50th birthday party in May and did not post birthday messages online, reigniting rumours of a feud.

    "He refused all of our attempts, unless it was at his big birthday party with a hundred guests and cameras at every corner," the influencer wrote in a post to his 16 million followers.'

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ce3ekq4z5dyo

    Well that is one son out of the will then! He better keep sucking up to his billionaire father in law
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 13,193
    edited January 19

    Eabhal said:

    Horrible thing to say, but if the Capitol Police had mown down those traitors en masse I don't think we'd be here today. That degree of tolerance for sedition has ultimately undermined US democracy.

    Do you know whether it was tolerance, or was there a lack of manpower, ammunition, etc?
    Fair point. And they were prosecuted, at least until Trump pardoned them all (as he was always going to do). ICE already have "absolute immunity" - I think we all know where that is going.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 13,175
    MaxPB said:

    Can we not give Trump a 20 year lease to Greenland with a break clause at every US election cycle? The incoming POTUS will get rid as soon as.

    Who’s this “we” that is able to lease Greenland to anyone?
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,866
    Perhaps if trump had got a friendly judge on the international court circuit who ruled Greenland was not danish but American , Starmer would say fair enough and also think its fine Denmark pay 30 billion to give it away
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 5,820
    glw said:

    But now Europe gets to learn what is becoming increasingly clear to everybody: Trying to satiate this guy just makes him hungrier. In this way he’s just like any other authoritarian, really. Give Putin the Donbas to shut him up, and who knows what he’ll try to take next? Give Trump Greenland to shut him up, and who knows what he’ll try to take next?

    The outrages will continue. Just this morning, news broke that Trump has invited Putin himself to be a member of the “Board of Peace” to reconstruct the Gaza strip. It’s time for Europe to see what time it is.

    https://www.thebulwark.com/p/celebrate-a-king-not-a-trump-mlk-jr-day-norway-denmark-greenland-nobel?utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web&triedRedirect=true

    "Denmark cannot protect that land from Russia or China, and why do they have a “right of ownership” anyway? There are no written documents, it’s only that a boat landed there hundreds of years ago, but we had boats landing there, also."

    Someone who thinks like that can construct an argument to annex just about anywhere or anything they like.
    The "logic" of the Trump administration is that any state that cannot defend some or all of its territory, and instead sits under America's umbrella, either should become US territory, or could do so when the US desires it to. That position must apply to literally dozens of countries. Any country relying on the US for defence will potentially face the same claims being made on their territory, like Denmark and Greenland, or Canada. We should not allow this under any circumstances.
    I look forward to those HY tanks heading north when Trump tries to take the Western Isles.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 133,075

    HYUFD said:

    biggles said:

    As a thought experiment, what would it look like if we applied the Trump approach?

    I guess we’d invade Ireland, lock up all Scot Nats, and retake Cyprus?

    All militarily feasible. All inconceivable.

    Inconceivable presently, but considered existential necessities in the past.

    If you think about Britain now, the facts that Ireland is part of another local power (the EU) and is sponsored by a dominant global power (the US), and the fact that Wales and Scotland are riven by separatism, are evidence of our decline.
    I think the fact we are out of the EU and Wales and Scotland are riven by separatism is more a symptom of the rising nationalism across most of the world rather than something unique to the UK
    Yes, there's something in that, but two things can be true at once. Nationalism was rising in the 19th century too, but we didn't see it rising in Wales and Scotland (though it always existed) because Britain was doing well. These are diseases on the body politic. Diseases don't tend affect a healthy body, but they run riot with a weak one.
    We are wealthier per capita than we were then, even if we no longer have an Empire
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 39,050

    Daniel Hannan
    @DanielJHannan

    A lot of good people are on a hook over Donald Trump. They voted for him for understandable reasons: to stop Hillary of Kamala, to prevent court-packing, to move the embassy to Jerusalem, to reduce regulations.

    They rightly applauded his toughening of immigration policy. They began to feel invested in him. Sure, he was boorish and bombastic, but he was delivering most of what he was elected to do. Naturally, they bridled at criticism from people they disliked, some of which was indeed absurd.
    But he has plainly now lost his mind . There is no other way of reading “I am going to threaten an ally with invasion because I didn’t get the Nobel Peace Prize”.

    It is impossible to exaggerate how high the stakes are. If Putin had put an agent in the White House, what would would be doing differently?
    We are talking about the survival of the Western way of life, about the world order of which the United States is the chief exemplar and beneficiary. That, surely, matters more than “liberal tears”. Doesn’t it? Because if it doesn’t, we are all damned.

    https://x.com/DanielJHannan/status/2013248587442930084

    Quite so.
    I'm not so sure, if it suceeds it getting European countries to give Greenland proper protection from the likes of China and Russia it may turn out to have been a good thing.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 133,075
    edited January 19
    HYUFD said:

    'I do not want to reconcile with my family," Brooklyn Peltz-Beckham has said in a statement addressing his strained relationship with his parents.

    Peltz-Beckham, the eldest child of Sir David Beckham and Lady Victoria Beckham, accused his parents of "trying endlessly to ruin" his relationship with Nicola Peltz-Beckham, both before and after their wedding.

    "My wife has been consistently disrespected by my family, no matter how hard we've tried to come together as one," he wrote on Instagram on Monday..He also accused his mother of "hijacking" their first dance.

    "In front of 500 wedding guests, Marc Anthony called me to the stage, where in the schedule was planned to be my romantic dance with my wife but instead my mum was waiting to dance with me instead," he wrote.

    "She danced very inappropriately on me in front of everyone. I've never felt more uncomfortable or humiliated in my entire life."

    He said he and his wife had chosen to renew their vows in 2025 to create new memories "that bring us joy and happiness, not anxiety and embarrassment".

    In his post, Peltz-Beckham also said he and his wife had travelled to London for Sir David's birthday but were "rejected for a week as we waited in our hotel room trying to plan quality time with him".

    The pair were absent from Sir David's 50th birthday party in May and did not post birthday messages online, reigniting rumours of a feud.

    "He refused all of our attempts, unless it was at his big birthday party with a hundred guests and cameras at every corner," the influencer wrote in a post to his 16 million followers.'

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ce3ekq4z5dyo

    Well that is one son out of the will then! He better keep sucking up to his billionaire father in law

    Full details of this huge breaking story tonight lead tomorrow's Sun and Mail (forget Greenland, the Beckham wars have begun)
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-15478285/Brooklyn-Beckham-Nicola-Peltz-feud.html

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/tvandshowbiz/37958099/brooklyn-beckham-bombshell-statement-family-feud/

  • RogerRoger Posts: 21,809
    Scott_xP said:

    Daniel Hannan
    @DanielJHannan

    A lot of good people are on a hook over Donald Trump. They voted for him for understandable reasons: to stop Hillary of Kamala, to prevent court-packing, to move the embassy to Jerusalem, to reduce regulations.

    They rightly applauded his toughening of immigration policy. They began to feel invested in him. Sure, he was boorish and bombastic, but he was delivering most of what he was elected to do. Naturally, they bridled at criticism from people they disliked, some of which was indeed absurd.
    But he has plainly now lost his mind . There is no other way of reading “I am going to threaten an ally with invasion because I didn’t get the Nobel Peace Prize”.

    It is impossible to exaggerate how high the stakes are. If Putin had put an agent in the White House, what would would be doing differently?
    We are talking about the survival of the Western way of life, about the world order of which the United States is the chief exemplar and beneficiary. That, surely, matters more than “liberal tears”. Doesn’t it? Because if it doesn’t, we are all damned.

    https://x.com/DanielJHannan/status/2013248587442930084

    @gabrielmilland.bsky.social‬

    The best way to read this is: "Myself and others on the fruitier side of the British right are terrified that our previous vocal support for Donald Trump is going to bite us viciously on the arse. There are skin diseases that poll better than he does in the UK."

    https://bsky.app/profile/gabrielmilland.bsky.social/post/3mcsgt7xyt22t
    Yes and I'd like him to explain what part moving the Israeli embassy to Jerusalem had in getting this fruit loop into the White House?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 27,354

    Paging @viewcode & @Taz and all my fellow geeks.

    ‘Blake’s 7’ Reboot In The Works From ‘The Last Of Us’ Director Peter Hoar & ‘A Good Girl’s Guide To Murder’ Exec Matthew Bouch

    https://deadline.com/2026/01/blakes-7-reboot-peter-hoar-matthew-bouch-multitude-productions-1236682580/

    Of all the franchises that can be rebooted, this one *could* work: the keel is basically a bunch of rebels try to overthrow a corrupt empire. So rebooting it from scratch makes sense. But the originals were so dependent on cast chemistry and availability that it would be difficult to do it the same way twice. Plus you run straight into the Dr Who problem: does an episodic series based around 26 or 13 episodes a year in terrestrial legacy tv still work in the era of streaming and bingeing? They tried rebooting "The Tomorrow People" and "The Bionic Woman" and it just didn't work. So if I watch it at all it'll be thru my fingers.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 54,805

    Eabhal said:

    Horrible thing to say, but if the Capitol Police had mown down those traitors en masse I don't think we'd be here today. That degree of tolerance for sedition has ultimately undermined US democracy.

    Do you know whether it was tolerance, or was there a lack of manpower, ammunition, etc?
    During the riot of Jan 6th Trump didn't order the National Guard into action to protect the Capitol building, and when they were eventually deployed it was on the orders of Pence.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_enforcement_response_to_the_January_6_United_States_Capitol_attack#:~:text=During the January 6 United,reinforcements arrived, to secure the

    There were other failures of policing that day, but that stands out. Trump had a part in ensuring that the Electoral College meeting was under protected.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 5,820
    glw said:

    Not one word about Greenland in the US national security strategy paper.

    Last year when Trump played chicken with Europe over tariffs it was at a time when the US was still providing military aid to Ukraine. Now that has stopped (as the Don so proudly tells us). Less reason for the EU to surrender this time.

    There's no reason to surrender. If Trump gets Greenland he really will try to get Canada, and that will be an even bigger problem for us all.
    Gets Greenland, goes for Canada, California & Texas try to secede for their own reasons.

    There are so many 'hilarity ensues' possible endings to this seasons show. Keeps you on your toes until the last episode.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,866
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    'I do not want to reconcile with my family," Brooklyn Peltz-Beckham has said in a statement addressing his strained relationship with his parents.

    Peltz-Beckham, the eldest child of Sir David Beckham and Lady Victoria Beckham, accused his parents of "trying endlessly to ruin" his relationship with Nicola Peltz-Beckham, both before and after their wedding.

    "My wife has been consistently disrespected by my family, no matter how hard we've tried to come together as one," he wrote on Instagram on Monday..He also accused his mother of "hijacking" their first dance.

    "In front of 500 wedding guests, Marc Anthony called me to the stage, where in the schedule was planned to be my romantic dance with my wife but instead my mum was waiting to dance with me instead," he wrote.

    "She danced very inappropriately on me in front of everyone. I've never felt more uncomfortable or humiliated in my entire life."

    He said he and his wife had chosen to renew their vows in 2025 to create new memories "that bring us joy and happiness, not anxiety and embarrassment".

    In his post, Peltz-Beckham also said he and his wife had travelled to London for Sir David's birthday but were "rejected for a week as we waited in our hotel room trying to plan quality time with him".

    The pair were absent from Sir David's 50th birthday party in May and did not post birthday messages online, reigniting rumours of a feud.

    "He refused all of our attempts, unless it was at his big birthday party with a hundred guests and cameras at every corner," the influencer wrote in a post to his 16 million followers.'

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ce3ekq4z5dyo

    Well that is one son out of the will then! He better keep sucking up to his billionaire father in law

    Full details of this huge breaking story tonight lead tomorrow's Sun (forget Greenland, the Beckham wars have begun)

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/tvandshowbiz/37958099/brooklyn-beckham-bombshell-statement-family-feud/
    This forum is badly in need of teaching of how wedding dresses can be weaponised . Might know everything about fighters and missiles but dresses I like to see a PBer analyse that
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 60,037
    viewcode said:

    Paging @viewcode & @Taz and all my fellow geeks.

    ‘Blake’s 7’ Reboot In The Works From ‘The Last Of Us’ Director Peter Hoar & ‘A Good Girl’s Guide To Murder’ Exec Matthew Bouch

    https://deadline.com/2026/01/blakes-7-reboot-peter-hoar-matthew-bouch-multitude-productions-1236682580/

    Of all the franchises that can be rebooted, this one *could* work: the keel is basically a bunch of rebels try to overthrow a corrupt empire. So rebooting it from scratch makes sense. But the originals were so dependent on cast chemistry and availability that it would be difficult to do it the same way twice. Plus you run straight into the Dr Who problem: does an episodic series based around 26 or 13 episodes a year in terrestrial legacy tv still work in the era of streaming and bingeing? They tried rebooting "The Tomorrow People" and "The Bionic Woman" and it just didn't work. So if I watch it at all it'll be thru my fingers.
    This is probably advocating Neon Fascist Colonialist Enslavement Of The Oppressed, but could we try *new* stories?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 41,738
    Fuck this guy

    @Reuters

    US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said it would be 'very unwise' for European governments to retaliate against US actions in the Greenland dispute

    https://x.com/Reuters/status/2013352010502799732?s=20
  • HYUFD said:

    'I do not want to reconcile with my family," Brooklyn Peltz-Beckham has said in a statement addressing his strained relationship with his parents.

    Peltz-Beckham, the eldest child of Sir David Beckham and Lady Victoria Beckham, accused his parents of "trying endlessly to ruin" his relationship with Nicola Peltz-Beckham, both before and after their wedding.

    "My wife has been consistently disrespected by my family, no matter how hard we've tried to come together as one," he wrote on Instagram on Monday..He also accused his mother of "hijacking" their first dance.

    "In front of 500 wedding guests, Marc Anthony called me to the stage, where in the schedule was planned to be my romantic dance with my wife but instead my mum was waiting to dance with me instead," he wrote.

    "She danced very inappropriately on me in front of everyone. I've never felt more uncomfortable or humiliated in my entire life."

    He said he and his wife had chosen to renew their vows in 2025 to create new memories "that bring us joy and happiness, not anxiety and embarrassment".

    In his post, Peltz-Beckham also said he and his wife had travelled to London for Sir David's birthday but were "rejected for a week as we waited in our hotel room trying to plan quality time with him".

    The pair were absent from Sir David's 50th birthday party in May and did not post birthday messages online, reigniting rumours of a feud.

    "He refused all of our attempts, unless it was at his big birthday party with a hundred guests and cameras at every corner," the influencer wrote in a post to his 16 million followers.'

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ce3ekq4z5dyo

    Well that is one son out of the will then! He better keep sucking up to his billionaire father in law

    Who cares ?
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 5,820
    viewcode said:

    Paging @viewcode & @Taz and all my fellow geeks.

    ‘Blake’s 7’ Reboot In The Works From ‘The Last Of Us’ Director Peter Hoar & ‘A Good Girl’s Guide To Murder’ Exec Matthew Bouch

    https://deadline.com/2026/01/blakes-7-reboot-peter-hoar-matthew-bouch-multitude-productions-1236682580/

    Of all the franchises that can be rebooted, this one *could* work: the keel is basically a bunch of rebels try to overthrow a corrupt empire. So rebooting it from scratch makes sense. But the originals were so dependent on cast chemistry and availability that it would be difficult to do it the same way twice. Plus you run straight into the Dr Who problem: does an episodic series based around 26 or 13 episodes a year in terrestrial legacy tv still work in the era of streaming and bingeing? They tried rebooting "The Tomorrow People" and "The Bionic Woman" and it just didn't work. So if I watch it at all it'll be thru my fingers.
    I remember Paul 'Avon' Darrow had tried to get a reboot off the ground where 'real time' had passed since the end of the original series. I'd think that would have had potential - and good excuse for production value upgrades.

    I hold out hope! Maximum power, etc, etc. The 'OracGPT' would have potential if they didn't ruin it a-la Dr.Who.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 39,050
    Scott_xP said:

    Fuck this guy

    @Reuters

    US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said it would be 'very unwise' for European governments to retaliate against US actions in the Greenland dispute

    https://x.com/Reuters/status/2013352010502799732?s=20

    Statement of the obvious. No-one can compete with US military power. Europe could have done if it had chosen differently over the last 60 years.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 133,075

    HYUFD said:

    'I do not want to reconcile with my family," Brooklyn Peltz-Beckham has said in a statement addressing his strained relationship with his parents.

    Peltz-Beckham, the eldest child of Sir David Beckham and Lady Victoria Beckham, accused his parents of "trying endlessly to ruin" his relationship with Nicola Peltz-Beckham, both before and after their wedding.

    "My wife has been consistently disrespected by my family, no matter how hard we've tried to come together as one," he wrote on Instagram on Monday..He also accused his mother of "hijacking" their first dance.

    "In front of 500 wedding guests, Marc Anthony called me to the stage, where in the schedule was planned to be my romantic dance with my wife but instead my mum was waiting to dance with me instead," he wrote.

    "She danced very inappropriately on me in front of everyone. I've never felt more uncomfortable or humiliated in my entire life."

    He said he and his wife had chosen to renew their vows in 2025 to create new memories "that bring us joy and happiness, not anxiety and embarrassment".

    In his post, Peltz-Beckham also said he and his wife had travelled to London for Sir David's birthday but were "rejected for a week as we waited in our hotel room trying to plan quality time with him".

    The pair were absent from Sir David's 50th birthday party in May and did not post birthday messages online, reigniting rumours of a feud.

    "He refused all of our attempts, unless it was at his big birthday party with a hundred guests and cameras at every corner," the influencer wrote in a post to his 16 million followers.'

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ce3ekq4z5dyo

    Well that is one son out of the will then! He better keep sucking up to his billionaire father in law

    Who cares ?
    The fact this story leads the Sun and Mail tonight suggests rather a lot do
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 40,335
    @Luckyguy1983

    I think nationalism was on the rise in Scotland and Wales in the late 19th century, but it manifested itself in the form of hostility to the aristocracy, demands for Welsh disestablishment, support for the radical wing of the Liberals, and demands for land reform.
  • Scotland could replace Bangladesh at next month’s T20 World Cup

    Last-minute call-up on cards if ICC fails to reach agreement with England’s group rivals Bangladesh, who are refusing to travel to India for security reasons


    Scotland could be a last-minute call up to the T20 World Cup next month if the International Cricket Council fails to reach agreement with Bangladesh, who are refusing to travel to India.

    Bangladesh are in group C with England for the tournament — which will take place in India and Sri Lanka in February and March — but the Bangladesh Cricket Board recently wrote to the international governing body saying that because of political tensions between the two countries, they would not travel to India. Instead, they requested that their matches be moved to Sri Lanka.

    The ICC has responded that there are no specific threats relating to the Bangladesh cricket team and is unwilling to alter the fixtures this late in the day, leaving the Bangladesh Cricket Board and Bangladesh government with a choice: fulfil their group-stage fixtures in Mumbai and Kolkata, or pull out of the tournament.

    The Times understands that a decision will be made on Wednesday.

    Should the Bangladesh government refuse permission for their players to travel to India, Scotland would be called up to take their place. There have been no discussions yet between the ICC and Cricket Scotland, but these would take place after Wednesday.


    https://www.thetimes.com/sport/cricket/article/scotland-replace-bangladesh-t20-world-cup-n3bqh9wxk
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,671
    rcs1000 said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    It's little surprise the polling looks good for Badenoch as the immediate comment from the so-called "experts" across the media couldn't have been more complimentary. The fact, a few days on, it now looks like a panicked over-reaction is less important - the first response is the one which resonates so thanks to a largely friendly media, a result for Kemi.

    As @HYUFD and others point out, however, the proof will be in the polling and I expect another step forward for the Conservatives as those desperate to see Labour thrown out of Government but equally desperate to see Farage's Prime Ministerial ambitions thwarted have finally worked out talking up the Conservatives is the only way to achieve it - it's not of course.

    The truth however is as in 1979 and 2015 the route to a Conservative majority will be over the corpses of Lib Dem MPs and it may be that far from being the electoral backwater I had envisaged, the 70 odd LD constituencies will be the battleground - plenty of water to flow under plenty of bridges I suspect.

    There are going to be no shortages of battlegrounds, but I think you are absolutely correct that a Conservative resurgence (even just a modest one) will result in the LibDems losing dozens of seats.

    But that does require a Conservative resurgence. So long as the right remains split, then those LibDem MPs aren't going to be feeling *too* worried just yet.
    When the Lib Dems won 72 seats, their share was 12.6% and the Tories were on 24.4%.
    Since then the Lib Dems have dug in, their share is still around 12.6% but the Tories have dropped 5 points to 19.4%.

    It will take more than a modest resurgence for the Tories to win back "dozens of seats".

    In all but 5 of the 72 seats, the Lib Dems have a 5%+ majority.

    It will take an increase of much more than 5% in the Tory share to even win back 5 seats from the Lib Dems. They are dug in. The Tories will need to look elsewhere.
    Labour are easier pickings which much thinner majorities and a much reduced share in the polls.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 54,805
    Sean_F said:

    @Luckyguy1983

    I think nationalism was on the rise in Scotland and Wales in the late 19th century, but it manifested itself in the form of hostility to the aristocracy, demands for Welsh disestablishment, support for the radical wing of the Liberals, and demands for land reform.

    There was a certain amount of Scottish nationalism in 1745 and Irish nationalism in 1798 too as I recall.

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 85,471

    Paging @viewcode & @Taz and all my fellow geeks.

    ‘Blake’s 7’ Reboot In The Works From ‘The Last Of Us’ Director Peter Hoar & ‘A Good Girl’s Guide To Murder’ Exec Matthew Bouch

    https://deadline.com/2026/01/blakes-7-reboot-peter-hoar-matthew-bouch-multitude-productions-1236682580/

    Could work.

    Could be crap.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 4,400
    Scott_xP said:

    Fuck this guy

    @Reuters

    US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said it would be 'very unwise' for European governments to retaliate against US actions in the Greenland dispute

    https://x.com/Reuters/status/2013352010502799732?s=20

    Nice little country you have there, shame if anything happened to it...
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 54,805

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    'I do not want to reconcile with my family," Brooklyn Peltz-Beckham has said in a statement addressing his strained relationship with his parents.

    Peltz-Beckham, the eldest child of Sir David Beckham and Lady Victoria Beckham, accused his parents of "trying endlessly to ruin" his relationship with Nicola Peltz-Beckham, both before and after their wedding.

    "My wife has been consistently disrespected by my family, no matter how hard we've tried to come together as one," he wrote on Instagram on Monday..He also accused his mother of "hijacking" their first dance.

    "In front of 500 wedding guests, Marc Anthony called me to the stage, where in the schedule was planned to be my romantic dance with my wife but instead my mum was waiting to dance with me instead," he wrote.

    "She danced very inappropriately on me in front of everyone. I've never felt more uncomfortable or humiliated in my entire life."

    He said he and his wife had chosen to renew their vows in 2025 to create new memories "that bring us joy and happiness, not anxiety and embarrassment".

    In his post, Peltz-Beckham also said he and his wife had travelled to London for Sir David's birthday but were "rejected for a week as we waited in our hotel room trying to plan quality time with him".

    The pair were absent from Sir David's 50th birthday party in May and did not post birthday messages online, reigniting rumours of a feud.

    "He refused all of our attempts, unless it was at his big birthday party with a hundred guests and cameras at every corner," the influencer wrote in a post to his 16 million followers.'

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ce3ekq4z5dyo

    Well that is one son out of the will then! He better keep sucking up to his billionaire father in law

    Full details of this huge breaking story tonight lead tomorrow's Sun (forget Greenland, the Beckham wars have begun)

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/tvandshowbiz/37958099/brooklyn-beckham-bombshell-statement-family-feud/
    This forum is badly in need of teaching of how wedding dresses can be weaponised . Might know everything about fighters and missiles but dresses I like to see a PBer analyse that
    Frankly nothing could benefit the Bechams Sr and Jr more than being ignored by the press and keeping their dirty linen private.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    'I do not want to reconcile with my family," Brooklyn Peltz-Beckham has said in a statement addressing his strained relationship with his parents.

    Peltz-Beckham, the eldest child of Sir David Beckham and Lady Victoria Beckham, accused his parents of "trying endlessly to ruin" his relationship with Nicola Peltz-Beckham, both before and after their wedding.

    "My wife has been consistently disrespected by my family, no matter how hard we've tried to come together as one," he wrote on Instagram on Monday..He also accused his mother of "hijacking" their first dance.

    "In front of 500 wedding guests, Marc Anthony called me to the stage, where in the schedule was planned to be my romantic dance with my wife but instead my mum was waiting to dance with me instead," he wrote.

    "She danced very inappropriately on me in front of everyone. I've never felt more uncomfortable or humiliated in my entire life."

    He said he and his wife had chosen to renew their vows in 2025 to create new memories "that bring us joy and happiness, not anxiety and embarrassment".

    In his post, Peltz-Beckham also said he and his wife had travelled to London for Sir David's birthday but were "rejected for a week as we waited in our hotel room trying to plan quality time with him".

    The pair were absent from Sir David's 50th birthday party in May and did not post birthday messages online, reigniting rumours of a feud.

    "He refused all of our attempts, unless it was at his big birthday party with a hundred guests and cameras at every corner," the influencer wrote in a post to his 16 million followers.'

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ce3ekq4z5dyo

    Well that is one son out of the will then! He better keep sucking up to his billionaire father in law

    Who cares ?
    The fact this story leads the Sun and Mail tonight suggests rather a lot do
    Then more fool them
  • Andy_JS said:

    Daniel Hannan
    @DanielJHannan

    A lot of good people are on a hook over Donald Trump. They voted for him for understandable reasons: to stop Hillary of Kamala, to prevent court-packing, to move the embassy to Jerusalem, to reduce regulations.

    They rightly applauded his toughening of immigration policy. They began to feel invested in him. Sure, he was boorish and bombastic, but he was delivering most of what he was elected to do. Naturally, they bridled at criticism from people they disliked, some of which was indeed absurd.
    But he has plainly now lost his mind . There is no other way of reading “I am going to threaten an ally with invasion because I didn’t get the Nobel Peace Prize”.

    It is impossible to exaggerate how high the stakes are. If Putin had put an agent in the White House, what would would be doing differently?
    We are talking about the survival of the Western way of life, about the world order of which the United States is the chief exemplar and beneficiary. That, surely, matters more than “liberal tears”. Doesn’t it? Because if it doesn’t, we are all damned.

    https://x.com/DanielJHannan/status/2013248587442930084

    Quite so.
    I'm not so sure, if it suceeds it getting European countries to give Greenland proper protection from the likes of China and Russia it may turn out to have been a good thing.
    On that basis he should threaten to invade Ireland next, yeah ?
  • scampi25scampi25 Posts: 365

    As an aside to World War3 I have been watching the Seven Dials on Netflix. It isn't very good. Why did no one like Chibnell's Dr Who?

    I agree - ATM can't be bothered to watch the last episode!
  • Andy_JS said:

    Daniel Hannan
    @DanielJHannan

    A lot of good people are on a hook over Donald Trump. They voted for him for understandable reasons: to stop Hillary of Kamala, to prevent court-packing, to move the embassy to Jerusalem, to reduce regulations.

    They rightly applauded his toughening of immigration policy. They began to feel invested in him. Sure, he was boorish and bombastic, but he was delivering most of what he was elected to do. Naturally, they bridled at criticism from people they disliked, some of which was indeed absurd.
    But he has plainly now lost his mind . There is no other way of reading “I am going to threaten an ally with invasion because I didn’t get the Nobel Peace Prize”.

    It is impossible to exaggerate how high the stakes are. If Putin had put an agent in the White House, what would would be doing differently?
    We are talking about the survival of the Western way of life, about the world order of which the United States is the chief exemplar and beneficiary. That, surely, matters more than “liberal tears”. Doesn’t it? Because if it doesn’t, we are all damned.

    https://x.com/DanielJHannan/status/2013248587442930084

    Quite so.
    I'm not so sure, if it suceeds it getting European countries to give Greenland proper protection from the likes of China and Russia it may turn out to have been a good thing.
    The threat from China and Russia is a product of Trump's dementia brain. China is on the other side of the world and Russia could, at best, put a few troops on Greenland in a sneak operation who would all be dead within hours when NATO responded.
    Its not that but the security of the Artic for many reasons and with climate change new sea routes
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 41,738
    German Chancellor Friedrich Merz on tariffs: “The American government knows that we could respond from our side as well.

    “I do not want that, but if it becomes necessary, we will of course protect our European interests—and also our German national interests.”

    Merz: “The economy in the United States is not performing as well as the American government expected a year ago.

    “In my assessment, this also has something to do with tariff policy.”
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 10,921
    edited January 19

    Andy_JS said:

    Daniel Hannan
    @DanielJHannan

    A lot of good people are on a hook over Donald Trump. They voted for him for understandable reasons: to stop Hillary of Kamala, to prevent court-packing, to move the embassy to Jerusalem, to reduce regulations.

    They rightly applauded his toughening of immigration policy. They began to feel invested in him. Sure, he was boorish and bombastic, but he was delivering most of what he was elected to do. Naturally, they bridled at criticism from people they disliked, some of which was indeed absurd.
    But he has plainly now lost his mind . There is no other way of reading “I am going to threaten an ally with invasion because I didn’t get the Nobel Peace Prize”.

    It is impossible to exaggerate how high the stakes are. If Putin had put an agent in the White House, what would would be doing differently?
    We are talking about the survival of the Western way of life, about the world order of which the United States is the chief exemplar and beneficiary. That, surely, matters more than “liberal tears”. Doesn’t it? Because if it doesn’t, we are all damned.

    https://x.com/DanielJHannan/status/2013248587442930084

    Quite so.
    I'm not so sure, if it suceeds it getting European countries to give Greenland proper protection from the likes of China and Russia it may turn out to have been a good thing.
    On that basis he should threaten to invade Ireland next, yeah ?
    On C4 News, one of his outriders also seemed to be mentioning the Faroe islands and Iceland as part of an important area. From one of hi "American future" thinktanks, I think։
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 4,625

    Paging @viewcode & @Taz and all my fellow geeks.

    ‘Blake’s 7’ Reboot In The Works From ‘The Last Of Us’ Director Peter Hoar & ‘A Good Girl’s Guide To Murder’ Exec Matthew Bouch

    https://deadline.com/2026/01/blakes-7-reboot-peter-hoar-matthew-bouch-multitude-productions-1236682580/

    I enjoyed Blake's 7 at the time. I shudder to think what the so-called reboot will be like.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 21,294
    Barnesian said:

    rcs1000 said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    It's little surprise the polling looks good for Badenoch as the immediate comment from the so-called "experts" across the media couldn't have been more complimentary. The fact, a few days on, it now looks like a panicked over-reaction is less important - the first response is the one which resonates so thanks to a largely friendly media, a result for Kemi.

    As @HYUFD and others point out, however, the proof will be in the polling and I expect another step forward for the Conservatives as those desperate to see Labour thrown out of Government but equally desperate to see Farage's Prime Ministerial ambitions thwarted have finally worked out talking up the Conservatives is the only way to achieve it - it's not of course.

    The truth however is as in 1979 and 2015 the route to a Conservative majority will be over the corpses of Lib Dem MPs and it may be that far from being the electoral backwater I had envisaged, the 70 odd LD constituencies will be the battleground - plenty of water to flow under plenty of bridges I suspect.

    There are going to be no shortages of battlegrounds, but I think you are absolutely correct that a Conservative resurgence (even just a modest one) will result in the LibDems losing dozens of seats.

    But that does require a Conservative resurgence. So long as the right remains split, then those LibDem MPs aren't going to be feeling *too* worried just yet.
    When the Lib Dems won 72 seats, their share was 12.6% and the Tories were on 24.4%.
    Since then the Lib Dems have dug in, their share is still around 12.6% but the Tories have dropped 5 points to 19.4%.

    It will take more than a modest resurgence for the Tories to win back "dozens of seats".

    In all but 5 of the 72 seats, the Lib Dems have a 5%+ majority.

    It will take an increase of much more than 5% in the Tory share to even win back 5 seats from the Lib Dems. They are dug in. The Tories will need to look elsewhere.
    Labour are easier pickings which much thinner majorities and a much reduced share in the polls.
    I think I understand the conmentariat's frustration with the Lib Dems. They have a game plan involving the 72 seats they hold, and the 20-30(?) remaining blue seats interrupting that golden streak from Devon to Oxfordshire to Sussex. Put like that, it's a mutant version of Blockbusters.

    That's almost certainly their most effective strategy. It's also the most honest, since it doesn't really involve trying to provide the next PM. But by golly, it's boring.
  • "Badenoch warns Tory MPs against plotting and psychodrama

    Conservative Party leader Kemi Badenoch has warned her MPs against more plotting and "psychodrama" after two defections from the party in four days."

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cdxj4pkw20yo

    Did Kemi say "psychodrama"?

    Why else would they have put it in quotes?
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 4,625

    a

    Paging @viewcode & @Taz and all my fellow geeks.

    ‘Blake’s 7’ Reboot In The Works From ‘The Last Of Us’ Director Peter Hoar & ‘A Good Girl’s Guide To Murder’ Exec Matthew Bouch

    https://deadline.com/2026/01/blakes-7-reboot-peter-hoar-matthew-bouch-multitude-productions-1236682580/

    Oh Christ

    Just no.
    The good news is one doesn't have to watch it.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 21,985

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    'I do not want to reconcile with my family," Brooklyn Peltz-Beckham has said in a statement addressing his strained relationship with his parents.

    Peltz-Beckham, the eldest child of Sir David Beckham and Lady Victoria Beckham, accused his parents of "trying endlessly to ruin" his relationship with Nicola Peltz-Beckham, both before and after their wedding.

    "My wife has been consistently disrespected by my family, no matter how hard we've tried to come together as one," he wrote on Instagram on Monday..He also accused his mother of "hijacking" their first dance.

    "In front of 500 wedding guests, Marc Anthony called me to the stage, where in the schedule was planned to be my romantic dance with my wife but instead my mum was waiting to dance with me instead," he wrote.

    "She danced very inappropriately on me in front of everyone. I've never felt more uncomfortable or humiliated in my entire life."

    He said he and his wife had chosen to renew their vows in 2025 to create new memories "that bring us joy and happiness, not anxiety and embarrassment".

    In his post, Peltz-Beckham also said he and his wife had travelled to London for Sir David's birthday but were "rejected for a week as we waited in our hotel room trying to plan quality time with him".

    The pair were absent from Sir David's 50th birthday party in May and did not post birthday messages online, reigniting rumours of a feud.

    "He refused all of our attempts, unless it was at his big birthday party with a hundred guests and cameras at every corner," the influencer wrote in a post to his 16 million followers.'

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ce3ekq4z5dyo

    Well that is one son out of the will then! He better keep sucking up to his billionaire father in law

    Full details of this huge breaking story tonight lead tomorrow's Sun (forget Greenland, the Beckham wars have begun)

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/tvandshowbiz/37958099/brooklyn-beckham-bombshell-statement-family-feud/
    This forum is badly in need of teaching of how wedding dresses can be weaponised . Might know everything about fighters and missiles but dresses I like to see a PBer analyse that
    I would guess that I'm unusual on PB.com in having made not one, not two, but three dresses.

    But I'm not sure I could do a good analysis of one. I'm better off with an opinion poll data table, and I've never conducted an opinion poll - go figure.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 33,756
    ...
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    biggles said:

    As a thought experiment, what would it look like if we applied the Trump approach?

    I guess we’d invade Ireland, lock up all Scot Nats, and retake Cyprus?

    All militarily feasible. All inconceivable.

    Inconceivable presently, but considered existential necessities in the past.

    If you think about Britain now, the facts that Ireland is part of another local power (the EU) and is sponsored by a dominant global power (the US), and the fact that Wales and Scotland are riven by separatism, are evidence of our decline.
    I think the fact we are out of the EU and Wales and Scotland are riven by separatism is more a symptom of the rising nationalism across most of the world rather than something unique to the UK
    Yes, there's something in that, but two things can be true at once. Nationalism was rising in the 19th century too, but we didn't see it rising in Wales and Scotland (though it always existed) because Britain was doing well. These are diseases on the body politic. Diseases don't tend affect a healthy body, but they run riot with a weak one.
    We are wealthier per capita than we were then, even if we no longer have an Empire
    I don't think that is true - what metric are you using? And I'm not talking about the Empire, that was always fairly revenue neutral, but being the world's pre-eminent industrial power.
  • TazTaz Posts: 24,058

    Paging @viewcode & @Taz and all my fellow geeks.

    ‘Blake’s 7’ Reboot In The Works From ‘The Last Of Us’ Director Peter Hoar & ‘A Good Girl’s Guide To Murder’ Exec Matthew Bouch

    https://deadline.com/2026/01/blakes-7-reboot-peter-hoar-matthew-bouch-multitude-productions-1236682580/

    Dear God, no.

    I’m just working through the season 1 Blu Ray

    Can they do Space 1999 instead.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 36,547

    Unfortunately in trump and Starmer we have seen examples of immense stupidity in terms of land negotiations . Trump just wants to steal and Starmer wants to just give away chagos islands in perhaps the worst ever deal by a pm. Cannot we have sensible politicians in the west?

    Team Farage since the defection of Jenrick are blaming your team for the Chagos fiasco.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 41,738
    New Reform defector name in the mix… ?👇 ex Dover MP Nathalie Elphicke, defected to Labour just before the election so technically an ‘ex Labour MP’ as Jenrick described 👀
  • stodgestodge Posts: 15,911

    rcs1000 said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    It's little surprise the polling looks good for Badenoch as the immediate comment from the so-called "experts" across the media couldn't have been more complimentary. The fact, a few days on, it now looks like a panicked over-reaction is less important - the first response is the one which resonates so thanks to a largely friendly media, a result for Kemi.

    As @HYUFD and others point out, however, the proof will be in the polling and I expect another step forward for the Conservatives as those desperate to see Labour thrown out of Government but equally desperate to see Farage's Prime Ministerial ambitions thwarted have finally worked out talking up the Conservatives is the only way to achieve it - it's not of course.

    The truth however is as in 1979 and 2015 the route to a Conservative majority will be over the corpses of Lib Dem MPs and it may be that far from being the electoral backwater I had envisaged, the 70 odd LD constituencies will be the battleground - plenty of water to flow under plenty of bridges I suspect.

    There are going to be no shortages of battlegrounds, but I think you are absolutely correct that a Conservative resurgence (even just a modest one) will result in the LibDems losing dozens of seats.

    But that does require a Conservative resurgence. So long as the right remains split, then those LibDem MPs aren't going to be feeling *too* worried just yet.
    The Tories received a GB share of 24.4% of the vote at GE2024. They're best recent poll share is 22%. They last received 24% in an opinion poll in mid-April 2025. The Wikipedia graph gives them a current score of ~20% (but beware end effects with a LOESS smooth). So they have a way to go yet.

    The Lib Dem GB share at GE2024 was 12.5%. Their current polling average on Wikipedia is very close to 12.5%. Given that it's the gap between the Tory and Lib Dem shares that is the clearest determinant of Lib Dem success, then if the Lib Dems had been able to attract even just a couple of percentage points of additional support, it would give them a bit of a cushion against a Tory resurgence.

    Whatever it is that the Lib Dems are trying to do right now it isn't working.
    I'm not sure the LDs are trying to "do" anything. Well, they are -some interesting comments on hospital infrastructure spending and help for carers last week which few will have heard or appreciated.

    It's incredibly difficult given everything going on for the party to get itself heard or do much beyond its heartlands.

    BUT...we are only 18 months into a 58 month Parliament if you assume an election in May 2029. That's an eternity and there's so much that can and will happen in the next three years.We could, by this time, in 2029, be getting into General Election mode but would you like to predict what the polls will be saying in mid January 2029?

    Neither would I.

    I wouldn't be too worried at this stage - the time to promote an alternative is when the other alternatives have either blown themselves out, been exposed as incoherent or fallen apart under their inner contradications.
  • TazTaz Posts: 24,058
    Nigelb said:

    Paging @viewcode & @Taz and all my fellow geeks.

    ‘Blake’s 7’ Reboot In The Works From ‘The Last Of Us’ Director Peter Hoar & ‘A Good Girl’s Guide To Murder’ Exec Matthew Bouch

    https://deadline.com/2026/01/blakes-7-reboot-peter-hoar-matthew-bouch-multitude-productions-1236682580/

    Could work.

    Could be crap.
    I know where my money would be…..
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,671

    Barnesian said:

    rcs1000 said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    It's little surprise the polling looks good for Badenoch as the immediate comment from the so-called "experts" across the media couldn't have been more complimentary. The fact, a few days on, it now looks like a panicked over-reaction is less important - the first response is the one which resonates so thanks to a largely friendly media, a result for Kemi.

    As @HYUFD and others point out, however, the proof will be in the polling and I expect another step forward for the Conservatives as those desperate to see Labour thrown out of Government but equally desperate to see Farage's Prime Ministerial ambitions thwarted have finally worked out talking up the Conservatives is the only way to achieve it - it's not of course.

    The truth however is as in 1979 and 2015 the route to a Conservative majority will be over the corpses of Lib Dem MPs and it may be that far from being the electoral backwater I had envisaged, the 70 odd LD constituencies will be the battleground - plenty of water to flow under plenty of bridges I suspect.

    There are going to be no shortages of battlegrounds, but I think you are absolutely correct that a Conservative resurgence (even just a modest one) will result in the LibDems losing dozens of seats.

    But that does require a Conservative resurgence. So long as the right remains split, then those LibDem MPs aren't going to be feeling *too* worried just yet.
    When the Lib Dems won 72 seats, their share was 12.6% and the Tories were on 24.4%.
    Since then the Lib Dems have dug in, their share is still around 12.6% but the Tories have dropped 5 points to 19.4%.

    It will take more than a modest resurgence for the Tories to win back "dozens of seats".

    In all but 5 of the 72 seats, the Lib Dems have a 5%+ majority.

    It will take an increase of much more than 5% in the Tory share to even win back 5 seats from the Lib Dems. They are dug in. The Tories will need to look elsewhere.
    Labour are easier pickings which much thinner majorities and a much reduced share in the polls.
    I think I understand the conmentariat's frustration with the Lib Dems. They have a game plan involving the 72 seats they hold, and the 20-30(?) remaining blue seats interrupting that golden streak from Devon to Oxfordshire to Sussex. Put like that, it's a mutant version of Blockbusters.

    That's almost certainly their most effective strategy. It's also the most honest, since it doesn't really involve trying to provide the next PM. But by golly, it's boring.
    :) A step at a time. 100 seats could easily hold the balance of power at the next election.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 77,128
    AnneJGP said:

    Paging @viewcode & @Taz and all my fellow geeks.

    ‘Blake’s 7’ Reboot In The Works From ‘The Last Of Us’ Director Peter Hoar & ‘A Good Girl’s Guide To Murder’ Exec Matthew Bouch

    https://deadline.com/2026/01/blakes-7-reboot-peter-hoar-matthew-bouch-multitude-productions-1236682580/

    I enjoyed Blake's 7 at the time. I shudder to think what the so-called reboot will be like.
    It would be de Bouched by Hoar's fucking around.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 36,547
    scampi25 said:

    As an aside to World War3 I have been watching the Seven Dials on Netflix. It isn't very good. Why did no one like Chibnell's Dr Who?

    I agree - ATM can't be bothered to watch the last episode!
    It doesn't get any better and it deviates from the book. Poorly written, poorly filmed and poorly edited.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 65,238
    Scott_xP said:

    Daniel Hannan
    @DanielJHannan

    A lot of good people are on a hook over Donald Trump. They voted for him for understandable reasons: to stop Hillary of Kamala, to prevent court-packing, to move the embassy to Jerusalem, to reduce regulations.

    They rightly applauded his toughening of immigration policy. They began to feel invested in him. Sure, he was boorish and bombastic, but he was delivering most of what he was elected to do. Naturally, they bridled at criticism from people they disliked, some of which was indeed absurd.
    But he has plainly now lost his mind . There is no other way of reading “I am going to threaten an ally with invasion because I didn’t get the Nobel Peace Prize”.

    It is impossible to exaggerate how high the stakes are. If Putin had put an agent in the White House, what would would be doing differently?
    We are talking about the survival of the Western way of life, about the world order of which the United States is the chief exemplar and beneficiary. That, surely, matters more than “liberal tears”. Doesn’t it? Because if it doesn’t, we are all damned.

    https://x.com/DanielJHannan/status/2013248587442930084

    @gabrielmilland.bsky.social‬

    The best way to read this is: "Myself and others on the fruitier side of the British right are terrified that our previous vocal support for Donald Trump is going to bite us viciously on the arse. There are skin diseases that poll better than he does in the UK."

    https://bsky.app/profile/gabrielmilland.bsky.social/post/3mcsgt7xyt22t
    Why post that and like that?

    The only behaviour that will drive is people keeping their heads down or, worse, doubling-down and practicing cognitive dissonance to avoid the risk of being laughed at or vilified by both sides. And reinforcing polarisation as a result. That's the very last thing we need.

    What a totally stupid post.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 36,547
    edited January 19
    Scott_xP said:

    New Reform defector name in the mix… ?👇 ex Dover MP Nathalie Elphicke, defected to Labour just before the election so technically an ‘ex Labour MP’ as Jenrick described 👀

    Bloody hell, is that the best they can do? I was hoping for at least Stringer or Rosie. Even Kate Hoey would have been better than Elphicke.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 33,756
    Nigelb said:

    Paging @viewcode & @Taz and all my fellow geeks.

    ‘Blake’s 7’ Reboot In The Works From ‘The Last Of Us’ Director Peter Hoar & ‘A Good Girl’s Guide To Murder’ Exec Matthew Bouch

    https://deadline.com/2026/01/blakes-7-reboot-peter-hoar-matthew-bouch-multitude-productions-1236682580/

    Could work.

    Could be crap.
    Let's just hope that they never desecrate the memory of Galloping Galaxies with a remake.

    https://youtu.be/WspM4jwq7lc?si=nrWg8N0gTHzAspp4
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 4,625

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    'I do not want to reconcile with my family," Brooklyn Peltz-Beckham has said in a statement addressing his strained relationship with his parents.

    Peltz-Beckham, the eldest child of Sir David Beckham and Lady Victoria Beckham, accused his parents of "trying endlessly to ruin" his relationship with Nicola Peltz-Beckham, both before and after their wedding.

    "My wife has been consistently disrespected by my family, no matter how hard we've tried to come together as one," he wrote on Instagram on Monday..He also accused his mother of "hijacking" their first dance.

    "In front of 500 wedding guests, Marc Anthony called me to the stage, where in the schedule was planned to be my romantic dance with my wife but instead my mum was waiting to dance with me instead," he wrote.

    "She danced very inappropriately on me in front of everyone. I've never felt more uncomfortable or humiliated in my entire life."

    He said he and his wife had chosen to renew their vows in 2025 to create new memories "that bring us joy and happiness, not anxiety and embarrassment".

    In his post, Peltz-Beckham also said he and his wife had travelled to London for Sir David's birthday but were "rejected for a week as we waited in our hotel room trying to plan quality time with him".

    The pair were absent from Sir David's 50th birthday party in May and did not post birthday messages online, reigniting rumours of a feud.

    "He refused all of our attempts, unless it was at his big birthday party with a hundred guests and cameras at every corner," the influencer wrote in a post to his 16 million followers.'

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ce3ekq4z5dyo

    Well that is one son out of the will then! He better keep sucking up to his billionaire father in law

    Full details of this huge breaking story tonight lead tomorrow's Sun (forget Greenland, the Beckham wars have begun)

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/tvandshowbiz/37958099/brooklyn-beckham-bombshell-statement-family-feud/
    This forum is badly in need of teaching of how wedding dresses can be weaponised . Might know everything about fighters and missiles but dresses I like to see a PBer analyse that
    I would guess that I'm unusual on PB.com in having made not one, not two, but three dresses.

    But I'm not sure I could do a good analysis of one. I'm better off with an opinion poll data table, and I've never conducted an opinion poll - go figure.
    I've made lots of dresses. Couldn't analyse a dress because I haven't clue what an analysis of a dress means.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 41,738
    @peterbakernyt.bsky.social‬

    An FBI agent conducted an initial review of the Renee Good killing and determined sufficient grounds existed to open a civil rights probe into the actions of the ICE officer who shot her. Justice Department says no inquiry is warranted.

    https://bsky.app/profile/peterbakernyt.bsky.social/post/3mcsd7kjkos2o
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 69,632
    edited January 19
    Scott_xP said:

    New Reform defector name in the mix… ?👇 ex Dover MP Nathalie Elphicke, defected to Labour just before the election so technically an ‘ex Labour MP’ as Jenrick described 👀

    Clapped out ex-MPs or failed or corrupt useless has-beens continue to defect.

    Farage has lost his mind.

    Insurgency against the old order? My arse

    as Jim Royale would say.

  • Daniel Hannan's tears are all too late.

    He was key to Brexit, and so to the weakening of Europe.

    Many of these underlying, geostrategic issues have been obvious for years.

    Now here we are.

    Drop your irrelevant dogma and hobbyhorse.

    Brexit ≠ weakening of Europe.

    Failure to invest in defence = weakening of Europe.

    The UK has stood up for defence as much post-Brexit as pre-Brexit. We have worked with allies as much post-Brexit as pre-Brexit.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 69,632
    Andrew Neil
    @afneil

    Trump’s so-called ‘Board of Peace’ turns out to have nothing to do with Gaza after all.
    It now looks like some kind of global conflict resolution body to replace the UN. It will cost £1bn to join and be chaired by Trump, who would have extensive powers, including a veto over decisions he doesn’t like.

    It is probably his most radical step yet to replace the post-WW2 global order.

    It will also be quite the dictators’ tea party. Putin, Lukashenko (Belarus tyrant) and the dictator of Kazakhstan have all been asked to join!!

    https://x.com/afneil/status/2013291162618966066
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 41,191

    Daniel Hannan's tears are all too late.

    He was key to Brexit, and so to the weakening of Europe.

    Many of these underlying, geostrategic issues have been obvious for years.

    Now here we are.

    Drop your irrelevant dogma and hobbyhorse.

    Brexit ≠ weakening of Europe.

    Failure to invest in defence = weakening of Europe.

    The UK has stood up for defence as much post-Brexit as pre-Brexit. We have worked with allies as much post-Brexit as pre-Brexit.
    Europe chose welfare over national defence and strong borders. In a world of force doctrine and might is right it was a poor choice. Not only has it left us with a huge and unaffordable welfare bill and unbearably high taxes, it's also left us with no realistic way to tell Trump to get fucked.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 65,238

    biggles said:

    Is there absolutely no constituency for a younger Republican politician to make some political hay out of this and seize the future of their party by repudiating Trump’s views?

    The track record of Republican politicians who make a stand against Trump is that they either get driven out of active electoral politics, or they back down and kowtow to the great leader.

    This has happened quite recently with Marjorie Taylor Greene on what you would think was vulnerable political territory for Trump over the Epstein Files.

    So it doesn't look like there is.
    We are seeing on here tonight what drives that behaviour.

    There is no reward for moderation.

    You just get abuse from both sides, and no support.
  • Andrew Neil
    @afneil

    Trump’s so-called ‘Board of Peace’ turns out to have nothing to do with Gaza after all.
    It now looks like some kind of global conflict resolution body to replace the UN. It will cost £1bn to join and be chaired by Trump, who would have extensive powers, including a veto over decisions he doesn’t like.

    It is probably his most radical step yet to replace the post-WW2 global order.

    It will also be quite the dictators’ tea party. Putin, Lukashenko (Belarus tyrant) and the dictator of Kazakhstan have all been asked to join!!

    https://x.com/afneil/status/2013291162618966066

    Yeah but it will have Tony Blair on it, so while this is not the time for soundbites, the hand of history . . .
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 69,632
    The shame on America will be incalculable when this is all over.

    Two centuries as the guiding light of the democratic west of the enlightenment, the shining city on the hill, will be fucked beyond repair for at least a generation possible two.




  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 31,155

    Andrew Neil
    @afneil

    Trump’s so-called ‘Board of Peace’ turns out to have nothing to do with Gaza after all.
    It now looks like some kind of global conflict resolution body to replace the UN. It will cost £1bn to join and be chaired by Trump, who would have extensive powers, including a veto over decisions he doesn’t like.

    It is probably his most radical step yet to replace the post-WW2 global order.

    It will also be quite the dictators’ tea party. Putin, Lukashenko (Belarus tyrant) and the dictator of Kazakhstan have all been asked to join!!

    https://x.com/afneil/status/2013291162618966066

    Bored of Peace.
    Time for conquest.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 6,784
    edited January 19
    Scott_xP said:

    New Reform defector name in the mix… ?👇 ex Dover MP Nathalie Elphicke, defected to Labour just before the election so technically an ‘ex Labour MP’ as Jenrick described 👀

    Why would anyone want to join the traitor party ?

    Farage can try and hide away. It’s about time the media skewered the traitor who would sell out the UK to the US .
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 4,625

    Paging @viewcode & @Taz and all my fellow geeks.

    ‘Blake’s 7’ Reboot In The Works From ‘The Last Of Us’ Director Peter Hoar & ‘A Good Girl’s Guide To Murder’ Exec Matthew Bouch

    https://deadline.com/2026/01/blakes-7-reboot-peter-hoar-matthew-bouch-multitude-productions-1236682580/

    They're right about the low-budget set. I recognised my hairdryer doing duty as a piece of hi-tech instrumentation.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 65,238
    Sean_F said:

    @Luckyguy1983

    I think nationalism was on the rise in Scotland and Wales in the late 19th century, but it manifested itself in the form of hostility to the aristocracy, demands for Welsh disestablishment, support for the radical wing of the Liberals, and demands for land reform.

    Scottish attachment to the UK is largely transactional.

    Welsh, is slightly different. They have a strong cultural identity, but that doesn't always translate into a political one.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 53,943
    Petition urging Denmark to buy California, here:

    https://denmarkification.com/
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 69,632
    Tom Nichols
    @RadioFreeTom

    It is not up to the military to put a stop to Trump’s ghastly ideas of war against NATO. The United States is not run by the military, nor should it be. Americans, and their elected representatives, must take this burden away from the armed forces—now.

    https://x.com/RadioFreeTom/status/2013357751028642016
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 41,738
    @SkyYaldaHakim

    🗣️ "We will not give into threats... Greenland belongs to Greenlanders."

    Norway's Socialist Left Party Leader Kirsti Bergstø responds to President Trump's latest threats to acquire Greenland - and shares her thoughts on the Nobel Peace Prize medal gifted to him by Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado.

    https://x.com/SkyYaldaHakim/status/2013362564923564067?s=20
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 4,625
    dixiedean said:

    Andrew Neil
    @afneil

    Trump’s so-called ‘Board of Peace’ turns out to have nothing to do with Gaza after all.
    It now looks like some kind of global conflict resolution body to replace the UN. It will cost £1bn to join and be chaired by Trump, who would have extensive powers, including a veto over decisions he doesn’t like.

    It is probably his most radical step yet to replace the post-WW2 global order.

    It will also be quite the dictators’ tea party. Putin, Lukashenko (Belarus tyrant) and the dictator of Kazakhstan have all been asked to join!!

    https://x.com/afneil/status/2013291162618966066

    Bored of Peace.
    Time for conquest.
    The UK has a few US bases too. Perhaps we're next.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 53,943

    biggles said:

    Is there absolutely no constituency for a younger Republican politician to make some political hay out of this and seize the future of their party by repudiating Trump’s views?

    The track record of Republican politicians who make a stand against Trump is that they either get driven out of active electoral politics, or they back down and kowtow to the great leader.

    This has happened quite recently with Marjorie Taylor Greene on what you would think was vulnerable political territory for Trump over the Epstein Files.

    So it doesn't look like there is.
    We are seeing on here tonight what drives that behaviour.

    There is no reward for moderation.

    You just get abuse from both sides, and no support.
    Poor TSE
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 41,738
    @JAX_357
    ·
    Jan 18
    Former Romanian President:
    What’s the difference between Trump and Putin? Hard to tell…
    Ah, Putin is a war criminal, Trump not yet.

    https://x.com/JAX_357/status/2012867325091852406?s=20
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 36,547
    nico67 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    New Reform defector name in the mix… ?👇 ex Dover MP Nathalie Elphicke, defected to Labour just before the election so technically an ‘ex Labour MP’ as Jenrick described 👀

    Why would anyone want to join the traitor party ?

    Farage can try and hide away. It’s about time the media skewed the traitor who would sell out the UK to the US .
    Appearing to be Trump's bitch is doing nothing for Starmer's standing, just wait until voters find out Farage was shilling for Trump just prior to GE24.
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 2,112
    AnneJGP said:

    dixiedean said:

    Andrew Neil
    @afneil

    Trump’s so-called ‘Board of Peace’ turns out to have nothing to do with Gaza after all.
    It now looks like some kind of global conflict resolution body to replace the UN. It will cost £1bn to join and be chaired by Trump, who would have extensive powers, including a veto over decisions he doesn’t like.

    It is probably his most radical step yet to replace the post-WW2 global order.

    It will also be quite the dictators’ tea party. Putin, Lukashenko (Belarus tyrant) and the dictator of Kazakhstan have all been asked to join!!

    https://x.com/afneil/status/2013291162618966066

    Bored of Peace.
    Time for conquest.
    The UK has a few US bases too. Perhaps we're next.
    Belarus and Kazakhstan are just proxies for Putin, why would Putin get extra votes if Trump wasn't his lackey?
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 4,625

    Daniel Hannan's tears are all too late.

    He was key to Brexit, and so to the weakening of Europe.

    Many of these underlying, geostrategic issues have been obvious for years.

    Now here we are.

    Drop your irrelevant dogma and hobbyhorse.

    Brexit ≠ weakening of Europe.

    Failure to invest in defence = weakening of Europe.

    The UK has stood up for defence as much post-Brexit as pre-Brexit. We have worked with allies as much post-Brexit as pre-Brexit.
    It has appeared to me that the EU is less than willing to work with us.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 69,632
    Dopermean said:

    AnneJGP said:

    dixiedean said:

    Andrew Neil
    @afneil

    Trump’s so-called ‘Board of Peace’ turns out to have nothing to do with Gaza after all.
    It now looks like some kind of global conflict resolution body to replace the UN. It will cost £1bn to join and be chaired by Trump, who would have extensive powers, including a veto over decisions he doesn’t like.

    It is probably his most radical step yet to replace the post-WW2 global order.

    It will also be quite the dictators’ tea party. Putin, Lukashenko (Belarus tyrant) and the dictator of Kazakhstan have all been asked to join!!

    https://x.com/afneil/status/2013291162618966066

    Bored of Peace.
    Time for conquest.
    The UK has a few US bases too. Perhaps we're next.
    Belarus and Kazakhstan are just proxies for Putin, why would Putin get extra votes if Trump wasn't his lackey?
    Dunno. It's a real tough one that. I'm sure that various GOP senators will be able to find some words that explain this all so that they do fucking nothing yet again.

    Shame. Shame on you all.
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 2,112

    Tom Nichols
    @RadioFreeTom

    It is not up to the military to put a stop to Trump’s ghastly ideas of war against NATO. The United States is not run by the military, nor should it be. Americans, and their elected representatives, must take this burden away from the armed forces—now.

    https://x.com/RadioFreeTom/status/2013357751028642016

    How do Joe and Josie Public do that if their elected representatives are cowards and racist retards have been armed and given effective immunity by the federal government?
    Most of the gun fetishists are fans of Trump, intelligence and gun ownership tend to be negatively correlated
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 65,238

    biggles said:

    Is there absolutely no constituency for a younger Republican politician to make some political hay out of this and seize the future of their party by repudiating Trump’s views?

    The track record of Republican politicians who make a stand against Trump is that they either get driven out of active electoral politics, or they back down and kowtow to the great leader.

    This has happened quite recently with Marjorie Taylor Greene on what you would think was vulnerable political territory for Trump over the Epstein Files.

    So it doesn't look like there is.
    We are seeing on here tonight what drives that behaviour.

    There is no reward for moderation.

    You just get abuse from both sides, and no support.
    Biden was quite good at the bipartisan thing and I think that will be recognised more in the years ahead if we manage to step back from the abyss.

    I also thought Badenoch's statement on Greenland was a rare good sign of the potential for Britain not to completely surrender to hyper-partisanship.
    I'm very disappointed by the behaviour of several pb regulars tonight.

    See the light: be called a f-ing idiot.

    This is what drives hyper-partisanship. It emerges from basic human psychology: our tendency toward herd behavior in social groups. It's about as effective as road rage.

    What deserves reward, instead, is nuance and thoughtful reflection because that's how we get stable democratic outcomes that most of us can live with, and respect.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 85,471

    Daniel Hannan's tears are all too late.

    He was key to Brexit, and so to the weakening of Europe.

    Many of these underlying, geostrategic issues have been obvious for years.

    Now here we are.

    Drop your irrelevant dogma and hobbyhorse.

    Brexit ≠ weakening of Europe.

    Failure to invest in defence = weakening of Europe.

    The UK has stood up for defence as much post-Brexit as pre-Brexit. We have worked with allies as much post-Brexit as pre-Brexit.
    You're a fool if you think Brexit didn't weaken Europe.
    But whatever.
  • isamisam Posts: 43,394
    From the source that had the Rosindell story first

    EXCLUSIVE: Five Conservative MPs have formally opened discussions with Nigel Farage about defecting to Reform UK, including former Home Secretary Suella Braverman.

    As revealed tonight on Dan Wootton Outspoken, five Conservative MPs contacted Nigel Farage over the weekend to negotiate a potential defection to Reform UK. The most prominent figure among them is former Home Secretary Suella Braverman.

    While Zia Yusuf and Nigel Farage have publicly stated that the party will not accept any further Tory defections after 7 May, it can also be revealed that Reform UK remains willing to welcome as many Conservative defectors as possible — even if that means extending beyond the previously announced deadline.

    Suella Braverman has been considering a move to Reform UK for several months. However, the recent defections of Andrew Rosindell and Robert Jenrick have significantly increased her inclination to make the switch.


    https://x.com/charliesimpsona/status/2013315260090892369?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 13,193
    MaxPB said:

    Daniel Hannan's tears are all too late.

    He was key to Brexit, and so to the weakening of Europe.

    Many of these underlying, geostrategic issues have been obvious for years.

    Now here we are.

    Drop your irrelevant dogma and hobbyhorse.

    Brexit ≠ weakening of Europe.

    Failure to invest in defence = weakening of Europe.

    The UK has stood up for defence as much post-Brexit as pre-Brexit. We have worked with allies as much post-Brexit as pre-Brexit.
    Europe chose welfare over national defence and strong borders. In a world of force doctrine and might is right it was a poor choice. Not only has it left us with a huge and unaffordable welfare bill and unbearably high taxes, it's also left us with no realistic way to tell Trump to get fucked.
    You can do better than parrot Vance. From a previous thread when someone else tried this on:

    "This is a weird meme because, as a percentage of GDP and including social security contributions, the United States is the biggest spender on welfare in the world - 7ppts higher than the UK. Even if you restrict it to pure, direct government expenditure (which isn't a fair comparison because of the complexities of public/private systems across countries), the US isn't far behind the UK (20% v 23%).

    The Americans are welfare junkies like the rest of us - and they don't get anywhere near the value that the Nordics do (the happiest countries in the world).

    The Poles spend a larger proportion on defence than we do - and are applauded for it - but their welfare spending is even higher. The same goes for Finland, the largest standing reserve and artillery in Europe. The Danes spend more than we do on defence as well. We shouldn't be bullied into copying an American system of governance which is demonstrably shite at all levels and in all aspects, particularly when these excellent alternatives exist."
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 57,313

    Barnesian said:

    rcs1000 said:

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    It's little surprise the polling looks good for Badenoch as the immediate comment from the so-called "experts" across the media couldn't have been more complimentary. The fact, a few days on, it now looks like a panicked over-reaction is less important - the first response is the one which resonates so thanks to a largely friendly media, a result for Kemi.

    As @HYUFD and others point out, however, the proof will be in the polling and I expect another step forward for the Conservatives as those desperate to see Labour thrown out of Government but equally desperate to see Farage's Prime Ministerial ambitions thwarted have finally worked out talking up the Conservatives is the only way to achieve it - it's not of course.

    The truth however is as in 1979 and 2015 the route to a Conservative majority will be over the corpses of Lib Dem MPs and it may be that far from being the electoral backwater I had envisaged, the 70 odd LD constituencies will be the battleground - plenty of water to flow under plenty of bridges I suspect.

    There are going to be no shortages of battlegrounds, but I think you are absolutely correct that a Conservative resurgence (even just a modest one) will result in the LibDems losing dozens of seats.

    But that does require a Conservative resurgence. So long as the right remains split, then those LibDem MPs aren't going to be feeling *too* worried just yet.
    When the Lib Dems won 72 seats, their share was 12.6% and the Tories were on 24.4%.
    Since then the Lib Dems have dug in, their share is still around 12.6% but the Tories have dropped 5 points to 19.4%.

    It will take more than a modest resurgence for the Tories to win back "dozens of seats".

    In all but 5 of the 72 seats, the Lib Dems have a 5%+ majority.

    It will take an increase of much more than 5% in the Tory share to even win back 5 seats from the Lib Dems. They are dug in. The Tories will need to look elsewhere.
    Labour are easier pickings which much thinner majorities and a much reduced share in the polls.
    I think I understand the conmentariat's frustration with the Lib Dems. They have a game plan involving the 72 seats they hold, and the 20-30(?) remaining blue seats interrupting that golden streak from Devon to Oxfordshire to Sussex. Put like that, it's a mutant version of Blockbusters.

    That's almost certainly their most effective strategy. It's also the most honest, since it doesn't really involve trying to provide the next PM. But by golly, it's boring.
    If the tories get back up to 30%+ by the next election, the LibDems can wave cheerio to a large number of seats.

    Which is what I expect.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 4,625


    Captain Mark Kelly
    @CaptMarkKelly

    Taking over Greenland is not a joke. Trump is sending messages to foreign leaders and making threats that will destroy the most important alliance we have. Are Republicans in Congress and @MarcoRubio really ready to throw NATO away because they’re too afraid to stand up to Trump?


    QTWTAIY?

    One of the odd things about this is, it's a dire crisis but it all seems so farcical. This is the way the world ends, not with a bang but a whimper.
  • isamisam Posts: 43,394
    Decent speech from Jenrick to Reform supporters

    The British people want their country back.

    Nigel Farage and his team are going to give it to them. 👊


    https://x.com/reformparty_uk/status/2013354673575493878?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 57,389
    isam said:

    From the source that had the Rosindell story first

    EXCLUSIVE: Five Conservative MPs have formally opened discussions with Nigel Farage about defecting to Reform UK, including former Home Secretary Suella Braverman.

    As revealed tonight on Dan Wootton Outspoken, five Conservative MPs contacted Nigel Farage over the weekend to negotiate a potential defection to Reform UK. The most prominent figure among them is former Home Secretary Suella Braverman.

    While Zia Yusuf and Nigel Farage have publicly stated that the party will not accept any further Tory defections after 7 May, it can also be revealed that Reform UK remains willing to welcome as many Conservative defectors as possible — even if that means extending beyond the previously announced deadline.

    Suella Braverman has been considering a move to Reform UK for several months. However, the recent defections of Andrew Rosindell and Robert Jenrick have significantly increased her inclination to make the switch.


    https://x.com/charliesimpsona/status/2013315260090892369?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    "Internal housekeeping".
  • eekeek Posts: 32,325
    AnneJGP said:

    Paging @viewcode & @Taz and all my fellow geeks.

    ‘Blake’s 7’ Reboot In The Works From ‘The Last Of Us’ Director Peter Hoar & ‘A Good Girl’s Guide To Murder’ Exec Matthew Bouch

    https://deadline.com/2026/01/blakes-7-reboot-peter-hoar-matthew-bouch-multitude-productions-1236682580/

    They're right about the low-budget set. I recognised my hairdryer doing duty as a piece of hi-tech instrumentation.
    Now the game isn't about attracting subscribers but getting them to remain - attached to the fact that the video version of a podcast both retains audiences (and gives you 2+ hours of watching a week) more than anything else - it's not surprising that the money for drama is slowly disappearing.

    Finding series that can be produced on a few sets at a lower cost is the currently the main game in the TV industry.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 69,632
    AnneJGP said:


    Captain Mark Kelly
    @CaptMarkKelly

    Taking over Greenland is not a joke. Trump is sending messages to foreign leaders and making threats that will destroy the most important alliance we have. Are Republicans in Congress and @MarcoRubio really ready to throw NATO away because they’re too afraid to stand up to Trump?


    QTWTAIY?

    One of the odd things about this is, it's a dire crisis but it all seems so farcical. This is the way the world ends, not with a bang but a whimper.
    Indeed. It is not exactly Napoleon taking Moscow is it.

  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 21,985
    edited January 19

    biggles said:

    Is there absolutely no constituency for a younger Republican politician to make some political hay out of this and seize the future of their party by repudiating Trump’s views?

    The track record of Republican politicians who make a stand against Trump is that they either get driven out of active electoral politics, or they back down and kowtow to the great leader.

    This has happened quite recently with Marjorie Taylor Greene on what you would think was vulnerable political territory for Trump over the Epstein Files.

    So it doesn't look like there is.
    We are seeing on here tonight what drives that behaviour.

    There is no reward for moderation.

    You just get abuse from both sides, and no support.
    Biden was quite good at the bipartisan thing and I think that will be recognised more in the years ahead if we manage to step back from the abyss.

    I also thought Badenoch's statement on Greenland was a rare good sign of the potential for Britain not to completely surrender to hyper-partisanship.
    I'm very disappointed by the behaviour of several pb regulars tonight.

    See the light: be called a f-ing idiot.

    This is what drives hyper-partisanship. It emerges from basic human psychology: our tendency toward herd behavior in social groups. It's about as effective as road rage.

    What deserves reward, instead, is nuance and thoughtful reflection because that's how we get stable democratic outcomes that most of us can live with, and respect.
    I'm not up on my Bible Studies, but it seems obvious that the reason there is "more joy in heaven over a sinner who repents" is because convincing people who disagree with you is The Thing. It's how you spread new ideas, whether that be religion, politics, or anything.

    In recent years, on the internet in particular, there's been a growth in the idea that people can't be bothered to explain their point of view, and if other people are too dumb to understand it that's their problem. (I've mostly noticed it on the Left, but that might be just the social media bubbles I move in).

    This might be because there are a lot of people willing to have bad faith arguments on the internet, and so it gets exhausting to repeat the same empty debate. And partly this might be because there are bad faith across on the internet, from Russia, Iran, or elsewhere wanting to divide us.

    But we do have to fight against it. We have to try and understand each other, even if we still disagree on many things. We have to try and not caricature each others views too much, even though it can be amusing and make winning an argument in our head easier.

    If Trump is going to be stopped it needs a lot of current Trump supporters to change their minds. It would be easier if we weren't horrid to people when they did so.
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