He shores up Reform but frees up the Tories to finally benefit from Labours inevitable unpopularity. The nationalist dimwits won't get it.
Who is left in the Tories? Really? Who?
The fact that has-been retreads like cleverly and Jeremy fucking hunt are seriously bruited as leaders shows their problem
They are finished, I think
And I say this with regret. I quite like Kemi b and she has definitely improved. They also once did great things. But now they are almost certainly done for
They need a sequence of unlikely events to save them. Starting with the disappearance of Farage
Are there any politicians of standing in the country?
Farage is probably the only one, but once PM will inevitably go the way of Boris and quickly be persona non grata with 75% of the country. Talking is not a sufficient skill for being PM. Jenrick is not just a snake but a blatantly incompetent one, messing up his defection not just once but again by being late to the stage in the presser.
The lack of serious and capable politicians afflicts all the parties pretty equally. Reform are going to pitch up with a shadow cabinet full of the people who they admit have already failed.
The difficulty with that argument is that there are enough centrist dorks around to render Reform the party that is least wanted by the greatest number, despite the fervent support it has from the other 30%, and despite the justified dislike for other parties as well. The defections of Jenrick and Zahawi, I suggest, will not reduce the hostile number.
Robert Jenrick can attempt to rationalise it as much as he likes. The reality is if he thought it would get him closer to Downing Street he’d have been standing next to Zack Polanski this afternoon.
Is this meant to be insightful?
All politicians are obscenely ambitious, and will happily knife each other. It’s what they do
The voters only care as to whether they are effective. This is whats done for Starmer and Labour. Voters would forgive all the greed and grift and hypocrisy - even the treachery - if Labour were competent and effective and made us richer. But Labour are the opposite of that. And thus they are punished
Just catching up. Unless I'm missing something, I think a lot of you are falling into the trap of thinking the average voter is more engaged than they are.
I don't think Badenoch catching Jenrick out will have any impact whatsoever on his career or on Reform's prospects. He is a shameless populist joining a party of shameless populists, that are currently wooing the electorate with their shameless populist shithousery.
The average Reform voter will not notice, let alone care, that Jenrick was pushed before he jumped.
The Badenoch/Jenrick sacking story is striking enough to be noticed by non anoraks, however briefly. Few will have noticed Jenrick's first speech as a Farage acolyte, and fewer still will have listened to more than thirty seconds of it.
Whether he's a net benefit to Reform is an open question. But it's pretty certain that sacking him has proved Badenoch with a personal boost. If nothing else, it keeps her as leader for the rest of this year I think ?
But you're right; most people who even noticed this will have forgotten about it in a couple of weeks' time.
Six months ago, I thought the Conservatives had made a terrible mistake and that Jenrick should replace the invisible and immature Badenoch. He made some great YouTubes about fare dodging and managed to get himself some press, and I thought "this man actually get hit; the Conservatives would be crazy not to defenestrate Kemi".
But then Kemi stopped being quite as crap. The Tory vote share has been on the rise, and Kemi has started to grow into her job (albeit she's still a bit lazy). Jenrick also failed to find other items of salience and disappeared off the screen.
Jenrick -rightly I think- has realized his time to grab the Crown has passed.
But it is a fundamentally risky move for him, not because Reform isn't popular. (Reform is popular, even if it's poll ratings have come back somewhat.) But it's risky because Farage falls out with everyone. Farage -historically- has brooked no competition. If you outshine him, then you are ousted. Can Jenrick form a more enduring bond with Farage than Diana James, Alan Sked, Richard Tice, Rupert Lowe, Douglas Carswell, and Suzanne Evans?
Six months ago, I thought the Conservatives had made a terrible mistake and that Jenrick should replace the invisible and immature Badenoch. He made some great YouTubes about fare dodging and managed to get himself some press, and I thought "this man actually get hit; the Conservatives would be crazy not to defenestrate Kemi".
But then Kemi stopped being quite as crap. The Tory vote share has been on the rise, and Kemi has started to grow into her job (albeit she's still a bit lazy). Jenrick also failed to find other items of salience and disappeared off the screen.
Jenrick -rightly I think- has realized his time to grab the Crown has passed.
But it is a fundamentally risky move for him, not because Reform isn't popular. (Reform is popular, even if it's poll ratings have come back somewhat.) But it's risky because Farage falls out with everyone. Farage -historically- has brooked no competition. If you outshine him, then you are ousted. Can Jenrick form a better bond with Farage than the Diana James, Alan Sked, Richard Tice, Rupert Lowe, Douglas Carswell, and Suzanne Evans?
Kruger, wisely, is focussing on being the Cardinal Richelieu figure.
Interesting that Jenrick sought to pour opprobrium on both Priti Patel and the Rwanda plan. I was under the impression that both these entities were held in considerably affection across the Tory-to-Reform Right.
I can see the underlying logic now for Badenoch to adjust towards the centre. It's now impossible for her to take on Reform, and there is a yawning chasm in the middle given how weak Labour and the Lib Dems are (12% is very poor in these circumstances). The recent uptick in the polls does look like vaguely normal people are lending the Conservatives an ear again.
Not convinced she is the right person to do it though - unless she manages to stop doom-scrolling.
I posited the idea a few days ago that the huge faction of ex-Tories now within Reform are unlikely to spend the rest of their days as Farage minions - the complete antithesis to the Tory culture of ambition and subterfuge in which they cut their teeth. Are we seeing a plot within a plot here? Has Nigel just appointed his own Brutus?
I can see the underlying logic now for Badenoch to adjust towards the centre. It's now impossible for her to take on Reform, and there is a yawning chasm in the middle given how weak Labour and the Lib Dems are (12% is very poor in these circumstances). The recent uptick in the polls does look like vaguely normal people are lending the Conservatives an ear again.
Not convinced she is the right person to do it though - unless she manages to stop doom-scrolling.
Here's the thing, though. The Conservative and Reform vote shares have been almost mirror images of each other. If she grabs a LibDem voters (of which there aren't that many), but loses one to Reform, then while she's shoring up some of those Shire seats, she's ensuring that the Conservatives lose in a bunch of other seats.
Looks like we're going to have Council bye-election here. The Ind/Green (they're in alliance locally) councillor has resigned over what appears to be an intra-party spat, so could be interesting. Probably (watch this space) Cons vs Green.
A very, very impressive, if extremely dark and unwelcomed speech by Jenrick. He has the oratorical gift of that other son of Wolverhampton and I have been warning Tories that Reform are not your friends for a while. Jenrick's absolute assassination of the party he belonged to until lunchtime was totally disingenuous. Was he never in Government, did he not ramp up asylum hotel numbers?
It is about time Tory rampers put business before pleasure and turned on the party of Russian spies. I reiterate, Reform are not your friends.
Robert Jenrick can attempt to rationalise it as much as he likes. The reality is if he thought it would get him closer to Downing Street he’d have been standing next to Zack Polanski this afternoon.
If ISIS started a streaming service you would be calling your agent tomorrow.....
I can see the underlying logic now for Badenoch to adjust towards the centre. It's now impossible for her to take on Reform, and there is a yawning chasm in the middle given how weak Labour and the Lib Dems are (12% is very poor in these circumstances). The recent uptick in the polls does look like vaguely normal people are lending the Conservatives an ear again.
Not convinced she is the right person to do it though - unless she manages to stop doom-scrolling.
I wouldn't describe it as tacking to the centre, but as fighting on more advantageous territory for the Tories.
If the Tories concentrate on the economy, on taxes and spending, on policies to increase growth, then that's better territory for them than trying to outdo Farage on immigration, or remigration, etc. The economic policies could be quite right-wing, rather than centrist, but it's the change in topic that makes the main difference.
I can see the underlying logic now for Badenoch to adjust towards the centre. It's now impossible for her to take on Reform, and there is a yawning chasm in the middle given how weak Labour and the Lib Dems are (12% is very poor in these circumstances). The recent uptick in the polls does look like vaguely normal people are lending the Conservatives an ear again.
Not convinced she is the right person to do it though - unless she manages to stop doom-scrolling.
Here's the thing, though. The Conservative and Reform vote shares have been almost mirror images of each other. If she grabs a LibDem voters (of which there aren't that many), but loses one to Reform, then while she's shoring up some of those Shire seats, she's ensuring that the Conservatives lose in a bunch of other seats.
It's a tough gig she's got.
Plenty of disgruntled Labour24 voters to pitch to. Not all of them will follow Leon in switching from Starmer to Farage.
Gosh, Robert Jenrick is coming over dreadfully at this press conference. He looks pasty, sweaty and twitchy, and he sounds strained, skittish and fake. Incredibly unimpressive. Sorry PB hard righties. Your man's a dud.
I posited the idea a few days ago that the huge faction of ex-Tories now within Reform are unlikely to spend the rest of their days as Farage minions - the complete antithesis to the Tory culture of ambition and subterfuge in which they cut their teeth. Are we seeing a plot within a plot here? Has Nigel just appointed his own Brutus?
Farage literally owns the Reform Party. He can't be ousted as leader of the party.
What are you suggesting? That a Commons majority of newly-elected Reform MPs will make Jenrick PM, rather than Farage? Good luck keeping a plot like that secret.
I can see the underlying logic now for Badenoch to adjust towards the centre. It's now impossible for her to take on Reform, and there is a yawning chasm in the middle given how weak Labour and the Lib Dems are (12% is very poor in these circumstances). The recent uptick in the polls does look like vaguely normal people are lending the Conservatives an ear again.
Not convinced she is the right person to do it though - unless she manages to stop doom-scrolling.
I wouldn't describe it as tacking to the centre, but as fighting on more advantageous territory for the Tories.
If the Tories concentrate on the economy, on taxes and spending, on policies to increase growth, then that's better territory for them than trying to outdo Farage on immigration, or remigration, etc. The economic policies could be quite right-wing, rather than centrist, but it's the change in topic that makes the main difference.
Yes, that's a better way of putting it. There's a dissonance there given the age cohort that forms her base (how do we fund the NHS without tax rises?) but that kind of totting up isn't required in opposition.
A very, very impressive, if extremely dark and unwelcomed speech by Jenrick. He has the oratorical gift of that other son of Wolverhampton and I have been warning Tories that Reform are not your friends for a while. Jenrick's absolute assassination of the party he belonged to until lunchtime was totally disingenuous. Was he never in Government, did he not ramp up asylum hotel numbers?
It is about time Tory rampers put business before pleasure and turned on the party of Russian spies. I reiterate, Reform are not your friends.
Yes, I see Jenrick employed that old Enoch move: my treachery doesn't make me ambitious and nasty; it makes me unambitious and noble because I've sacrificed my old, good life out of sheer principle.
I can see the underlying logic now for Badenoch to adjust towards the centre. It's now impossible for her to take on Reform, and there is a yawning chasm in the middle given how weak Labour and the Lib Dems are (12% is very poor in these circumstances). The recent uptick in the polls does look like vaguely normal people are lending the Conservatives an ear again.
Not convinced she is the right person to do it though - unless she manages to stop doom-scrolling.
Here's the thing, though. The Conservative and Reform vote shares have been almost mirror images of each other. If she grabs a LibDem voters (of which there aren't that many), but loses one to Reform, then while she's shoring up some of those Shire seats, she's ensuring that the Conservatives lose in a bunch of other seats.
It's a tough gig she's got.
Tory strategy should be London N and W fringes and wealthy centre, rural seats and blue wall. Let Reform and Labour fight to a standstill in the red wall and cities They are fighting to get to 175 seats, any ambition above that is wasted this time around
A very, very impressive, if extremely dark and unwelcomed speech by Jenrick. He has the oratorical gift of that other son of Wolverhampton and I have been warning Tories that Reform are not your friends for a while. Jenrick's absolute assassination of the party he belonged to until lunchtime was totally disingenuous. Was he never in Government, did he not ramp up asylum hotel numbers?
It is about time Tory rampers put business before pleasure and turned on the party of Russian spies. I reiterate, Reform are not your friends.
Farage is a shit.
Jenrick is a wet fart.
I have always been firm in my great dislike of both.
Looks like we're going to have Council bye-election here. The Ind/Green (they're in alliance locally) councillor has resigned over what appears to be an intra-party spat, so could be interesting. Probably (watch this space) Cons vs Green.
I have no wish to intrude into what might be private grief, but could you tel us which authority that is?
I posited the idea a few days ago that the huge faction of ex-Tories now within Reform are unlikely to spend the rest of their days as Farage minions - the complete antithesis to the Tory culture of ambition and subterfuge in which they cut their teeth. Are we seeing a plot within a plot here? Has Nigel just appointed his own Brutus?
He still owns the organisation, which is designed to keep him in post as long as he desires. Spode's Black Shorts were more democratic.
A Leadership Challenge requires 50% of members (aka 180k?) to write to the Chairman, and a Board meeting to vote against the leader.
6.28.A motion of no confidence in the Party Leader may be proposed in two ways: 6.28.1. by 50 Members of the Parliamentary Party or 50% of the Members of the Parliamentary Party (whichever is greater), writing to the Chairman and requesting a motion of no confidence. For the avoidance of doubt, clause 6.28.1 is only applicable in the event that the Parliamentary Party consists of more than 100 MPs; or 6.28.2. by 50% of all Members in Good Standing writing to the Chairman requesting a motion of no confidence. In either case such a request shall only be valid for 60 days from the day of receipt, after that time the Chairman shall disregard such requests. ... 6.31.In the event of a motion of no confidence in the Party Leader being passed by the Board the Party Leader shall be deemed to have resigned.
I can see the underlying logic now for Badenoch to adjust towards the centre. It's now impossible for her to take on Reform, and there is a yawning chasm in the middle given how weak Labour and the Lib Dems are (12% is very poor in these circumstances). The recent uptick in the polls does look like vaguely normal people are lending the Conservatives an ear again.
Not convinced she is the right person to do it though - unless she manages to stop doom-scrolling.
Here's the thing, though. The Conservative and Reform vote shares have been almost mirror images of each other. If she grabs a LibDem voters (of which there aren't that many), but loses one to Reform, then while she's shoring up some of those Shire seats, she's ensuring that the Conservatives lose in a bunch of other seats.
It's a tough gig she's got.
Tory strategy should be London N and W fringes and wealthy centre, rural seats and blue wall. Let Reform and Labour fight to a standstill in the red wall and cities They are fighting to get to 175 seats, any ambition above that is wasted this time around
We are three years away from an election in turbulent times! Who knows? Much is possible now but wont be by 2028, way too early to plan at that level of detail.
Gosh, Robert Jenrick is coming over dreadfully at this press conference. He looks pasty, sweaty and twitchy, and he sounds strained, skittish and fake. Incredibly unimpressive. Sorry PB hard righties. Your man's a dud.
I thought it was very good too tbh. No idea how Farage will deal with a communicator who is even better than he is. Popcorn at the ready.
I posited the idea a few days ago that the huge faction of ex-Tories now within Reform are unlikely to spend the rest of their days as Farage minions - the complete antithesis to the Tory culture of ambition and subterfuge in which they cut their teeth. Are we seeing a plot within a plot here? Has Nigel just appointed his own Brutus?
He still owns the organisation, which is designed to keep him in post as long as he desires. Spode's Black Shorts were more democratic.
A Leadership Challenge requires 50% of members (aka 180k?) to write to the Chairman, and a Board meeting to vote against the leader.
6.28.A motion of no confidence in the Party Leader may be proposed in two ways: 6.28.1. by 50 Members of the Parliamentary Party or 50% of the Members of the Parliamentary Party (whichever is greater), writing to the Chairman and requesting a motion of no confidence. For the avoidance of doubt, clause 6.28.1 is only applicable in the event that the Parliamentary Party consists of more than 100 MPs; or 6.28.2. by 50% of all Members in Good Standing writing to the Chairman requesting a motion of no confidence. In either case such a request shall only be valid for 60 days from the day of receipt, after that time the Chairman shall disregard such requests. ... 6.31.In the event of a motion of no confidence in the Party Leader being passed by the Board the Party Leader shall be deemed to have resigned.
I can see the underlying logic now for Badenoch to adjust towards the centre. It's now impossible for her to take on Reform, and there is a yawning chasm in the middle given how weak Labour and the Lib Dems are (12% is very poor in these circumstances). The recent uptick in the polls does look like vaguely normal people are lending the Conservatives an ear again.
Not convinced she is the right person to do it though - unless she manages to stop doom-scrolling.
Here's the thing, though. The Conservative and Reform vote shares have been almost mirror images of each other. If she grabs a LibDem voters (of which there aren't that many), but loses one to Reform, then while she's shoring up some of those Shire seats, she's ensuring that the Conservatives lose in a bunch of other seats.
It's a tough gig she's got.
Tory strategy should be London N and W fringes and wealthy centre, rural seats and blue wall. Let Reform and Labour fight to a standstill in the red wall and cities They are fighting to get to 175 seats, any ambition above that is wasted this time around
We are three years away from an election in turbulent times! Who knows? Much is possible now but wont be by 2028, way too early to plan at that level of detail.
Well id start with the above and move with the tectonic plates. Locals certainly suggest they are very dead in the red wall, Stockton aside!
He shores up Reform but frees up the Tories to finally benefit from Labours inevitable unpopularity. The nationalist dimwits won't get it.
Who is left in the Tories? Really? Who?
The fact that has-been retreads like cleverly and Jeremy fucking hunt are seriously bruited as leaders shows their problem
They are finished, I think
And I say this with regret. I quite like Kemi b and she has definitely improved. They also once did great things. But now they are almost certainly done for
They need a sequence of unlikely events to save them. Starting with the disappearance of Farage
The rhetoric of this argument is fine and true - there are no giants left in the Tory land, O my Thatcher and my Salisbury long ago and all that.
However you overlook the fact that however ghastly they all are, someone has to form a government; if the voter is the bear, the party doesn't have to be faster than the bear, it has to be faster than the other parties. They are all a bit slow, but the least slow doesn't get eaten and forms a government.
The Tory top table may not be great. But they are seriously in the actual contest for which top table is least ungreat. After Zahawi and Jenrick in the last three days, the Reform top table looks substantially worse than it did on Monday morning. They may be popular but they are still a joke.
Jenrick said this in his defection speech (as quoted by the Guardian live blog).
"From 1970 to 2007 real wages went down by one-third every ten years. Since then, they flatlined."
Is that remotely true? Is there any truthiness to it? Is it a classic Guardian mistake? (Should it maybe be "up" rather than "down"?)
No, it's not remotely true.
From 1970 to 2007, real wages rose by a third every decade. Since then, they have (in almost every developed country save Australia, Canada, Switzerland and Norway) largely flatlined.
I'm assuming that it is the Guardian that got it wrong rather than Jenrick, but who knows.
I can see the underlying logic now for Badenoch to adjust towards the centre. It's now impossible for her to take on Reform, and there is a yawning chasm in the middle given how weak Labour and the Lib Dems are (12% is very poor in these circumstances). The recent uptick in the polls does look like vaguely normal people are lending the Conservatives an ear again.
Not convinced she is the right person to do it though - unless she manages to stop doom-scrolling.
I wouldn't describe it as tacking to the centre, but as fighting on more advantageous territory for the Tories.
If the Tories concentrate on the economy, on taxes and spending, on policies to increase growth, then that's better territory for them than trying to outdo Farage on immigration, or remigration, etc. The economic policies could be quite right-wing, rather than centrist, but it's the change in topic that makes the main difference.
Yes. Actual right-wing governance that walks the walk. That would be good.
Reform and their supporters are not properly right-wing; it's all just a symptom of modern-day 'narrative' wankery whereby saying something must make it so. Throwing around terms like 'far right', 'fascist', and even 'centrist' like a shit-flinging chimp without giving any thought to the actual definition has become way too commonplace.
Jenrick said this in his defection speech (as quoted by the Guardian live blog).
"From 1970 to 2007 real wages went down by one-third every ten years. Since then, they flatlined."
Is that remotely true? Is there any truthiness to it? Is it a classic Guardian mistake? (Should it maybe be "up" rather than "down"?)
No, it's not remotely true.
From 1970 to 2007, real wages rose by a third every decade. Since then, they have (in almost every developed country save Australia, Canada, Switzerland and Norway) largely flatlined.
I'm assuming that it is the Guardian that got it wrong rather than Jenrick, but who knows.
No, it was Jenrick not the Guardian. Fuck knows why, but I was watching it.
So, just catching up, do we think the evidence is real, was Jenrick going to act on it (I'm imagining Boris's two letters here) or was this a bold Kemi gambit to putsch or dare him to challenge.
I think I once advised that a strategy of flushing out the defectors could work for her - let's see what comes of this. I think there's some chance of the Jenrick-Farage relationship being as fraught down the line as the Sultana-Corbyn one.
A very, very impressive, if extremely dark and unwelcomed speech by Jenrick. He has the oratorical gift of that other son of Wolverhampton and I have been warning Tories that Reform are not your friends for a while. Jenrick's absolute assassination of the party he belonged to until lunchtime was totally disingenuous. Was he never in Government, did he not ramp up asylum hotel numbers?
It is about time Tory rampers put business before pleasure and turned on the party of Russian spies. I reiterate, Reform are not your friends.
Farage is a shit.
Jenrick is a wet fart.
I have always been firm in my great dislike of both.
To my surprise, Mark, I just learned that Mrs PtP has met Jenrick: 'vapid little Tory boy' were her precise words. Of course I doubt he thinks much of her either, but as my wife she is self-evidently a fine judge of character.
Seriously, I think you are well shot of the little shit.
Gosh, Robert Jenrick is coming over dreadfully at this press conference. He looks pasty, sweaty and twitchy, and he sounds strained, skittish and fake. Incredibly unimpressive. Sorry PB hard righties. Your man's a dud.
I thought it was very good too tbh. No idea how Farage will deal with a communicator who is even better than he is. Popcorn at the ready.
You thought he was 'very good' at that presser?! No way. Maybe his speech (which I didn't see) but he was terrible at the Q&A. As was Farage. Pair of absolute grislies. Time to activate a lay of RUK at evens methinks. Money where mouth is.
Gosh, Robert Jenrick is coming over dreadfully at this press conference. He looks pasty, sweaty and twitchy, and he sounds strained, skittish and fake. Incredibly unimpressive. Sorry PB hard righties. Your man's a dud.
I thought it was very good too tbh. No idea how Farage will deal with a communicator who is even better than he is. Popcorn at the ready.
You thought he was 'very good' at that presser?! No way. Maybe his speech (which I didn't see) but he was terrible at the Q&A. As was Farage. Pair of absolute grislies. Time to activate a lay of RUK at evens methinks. Money where mouth is.
Reform will be damaged the more of these inept, stupid and failed ex Tory ministers they bring in. People want to vote against the uniparty, so how does plastering the likes of Zahawi and now Jenrick into senior positions help?
I know that Reform were desperately short of talent, but come on...
As for the reported forthcoming Lab to RefCon defectee, I have one name and one name only for you:
A very, very impressive, if extremely dark and unwelcomed speech by Jenrick. He has the oratorical gift of that other son of Wolverhampton and I have been warning Tories that Reform are not your friends for a while. Jenrick's absolute assassination of the party he belonged to until lunchtime was totally disingenuous. Was he never in Government, did he not ramp up asylum hotel numbers?
It is about time Tory rampers put business before pleasure and turned on the party of Russian spies. I reiterate, Reform are not your friends.
Farage is a shit.
Jenrick is a wet fart.
I have always been firm in my great dislike of both.
To my surprise, Mark, I just learned that Mrs PtP has met Jenrick: 'vapid little Tory boy' were her precise words. Of course I doubt he thinks much of her either, but as my wife she is self-evidently a fine judge of character.
Seriously, I think you are well shot of the little shit.
That's a pitch perfect description of him. Please relay my compliments.
I can see the underlying logic now for Badenoch to adjust towards the centre. It's now impossible for her to take on Reform, and there is a yawning chasm in the middle given how weak Labour and the Lib Dems are (12% is very poor in these circumstances). The recent uptick in the polls does look like vaguely normal people are lending the Conservatives an ear again.
Not convinced she is the right person to do it though - unless she manages to stop doom-scrolling.
Here's the thing, though. The Conservative and Reform vote shares have been almost mirror images of each other. If she grabs a LibDem voters (of which there aren't that many), but loses one to Reform, then while she's shoring up some of those Shire seats, she's ensuring that the Conservatives lose in a bunch of other seats.
It's a tough gig she's got.
Tory strategy should be London N and W fringes and wealthy centre, rural seats and blue wall. Let Reform and Labour fight to a standstill in the red wall and cities They are fighting to get to 175 seats, any ambition above that is wasted this time around
We are three years away from an election in turbulent times! Who knows? Much is possible now but wont be by 2028, way too early to plan at that level of detail.
IF Reform were to collapse - possible given the track record of previous Farage vehicles* - and the left is split between various equal entities, you could have a Tory majority similar to what Starmer achieved in 2024.
Gosh, Robert Jenrick is coming over dreadfully at this press conference. He looks pasty, sweaty and twitchy, and he sounds strained, skittish and fake. Incredibly unimpressive. Sorry PB hard righties. Your man's a dud.
I thought it was very good too tbh. No idea how Farage will deal with a communicator who is even better than he is. Popcorn at the ready.
You thought he was 'very good' at that presser?! No way. Maybe his speech (which I didn't see) but he was terrible at the Q&A. As was Farage. Pair of absolute grislies. Time to activate a lay of RUK at evens methinks. Money where mouth is.
Ah, I didn't watch the questions.
Lol, like I didn't watch the speech. All becomes clear. Comms mixup!
I can see the underlying logic now for Badenoch to adjust towards the centre. It's now impossible for her to take on Reform, and there is a yawning chasm in the middle given how weak Labour and the Lib Dems are (12% is very poor in these circumstances). The recent uptick in the polls does look like vaguely normal people are lending the Conservatives an ear again.
Not convinced she is the right person to do it though - unless she manages to stop doom-scrolling.
Here's the thing, though. The Conservative and Reform vote shares have been almost mirror images of each other. If she grabs a LibDem voters (of which there aren't that many), but loses one to Reform, then while she's shoring up some of those Shire seats, she's ensuring that the Conservatives lose in a bunch of other seats.
It's a tough gig she's got.
Tory strategy should be London N and W fringes and wealthy centre, rural seats and blue wall. Let Reform and Labour fight to a standstill in the red wall and cities They are fighting to get to 175 seats, any ambition above that is wasted this time around
We are three years away from an election in turbulent times! Who knows? Much is possible now but wont be by 2028, way too early to plan at that level of detail.
IF Reform were to collapse - possible given the track record of previous Farage vehicles* - and the left is split between various equal entities, you could have a Tory majority similar to what Starmer achieved in 2024.
*I wasn't thinking small planes, but...
On what for any other party would be a terrible day one has to admire PB Tory optimism.
I can see the underlying logic now for Badenoch to adjust towards the centre. It's now impossible for her to take on Reform, and there is a yawning chasm in the middle given how weak Labour and the Lib Dems are (12% is very poor in these circumstances). The recent uptick in the polls does look like vaguely normal people are lending the Conservatives an ear again.
Not convinced she is the right person to do it though - unless she manages to stop doom-scrolling.
Here's the thing, though. The Conservative and Reform vote shares have been almost mirror images of each other. If she grabs a LibDem voters (of which there aren't that many), but loses one to Reform, then while she's shoring up some of those Shire seats, she's ensuring that the Conservatives lose in a bunch of other seats.
It's a tough gig she's got.
Tory strategy should be London N and W fringes and wealthy centre, rural seats and blue wall. Let Reform and Labour fight to a standstill in the red wall and cities They are fighting to get to 175 seats, any ambition above that is wasted this time around
We are three years away from an election in turbulent times! Who knows? Much is possible now but wont be by 2028, way too early to plan at that level of detail.
IF Reform were to collapse - possible given the track record of previous Farage vehicles* - and the left is split between various equal entities, you could have a Tory majority similar to what Starmer achieved in 2024.
*I wasn't thinking small planes, but...
On what for any other party would be a terrible day one has to admire PB Tory optimism.
A terrible day? Nah - a blackhead has been squeezed out of the party.
Farage just said live on Sky he hasn't decided yet on Jenrick
Interesting. So that suggests Jenrick had submitted his application. But why start writing defection speeches and leave them on photocopiers if the application hadn't been formally accepted? Was Jenrick being presumptuous? Did Nigel drop strong hints that he's now rowing back from?
Probably all gentleman's agreement so they can (technically) truthfully say that no formal agreement existed.
Gentleman's agreement. Jenrick? Farage?
There is the old saying about how there are no gentleman in a gentleman's club, and no glory in a...
So, Jenrick has decided the writing is on the wall and kowtowing to Farage is the future for the right.
He could end up correct, Badenoch has shown some steel which will please some, but the Tory coalition remains fragile. And for all the 'good riddance' comments no doubt out there, he was a big name for them (out of a small remaining pool).
It will be fascinating if this galvanises the most tribal Tories, or the glut of Tories to Reform suddenly makes Badenoch more appealing to the centrist right.
I can see the underlying logic now for Badenoch to adjust towards the centre. It's now impossible for her to take on Reform, and there is a yawning chasm in the middle given how weak Labour and the Lib Dems are (12% is very poor in these circumstances). The recent uptick in the polls does look like vaguely normal people are lending the Conservatives an ear again.
Not convinced she is the right person to do it though - unless she manages to stop doom-scrolling.
Here's the thing, though. The Conservative and Reform vote shares have been almost mirror images of each other. If she grabs a LibDem voters (of which there aren't that many), but loses one to Reform, then while she's shoring up some of those Shire seats, she's ensuring that the Conservatives lose in a bunch of other seats.
It's a tough gig she's got.
Tory strategy should be London N and W fringes and wealthy centre, rural seats and blue wall. Let Reform and Labour fight to a standstill in the red wall and cities They are fighting to get to 175 seats, any ambition above that is wasted this time around
We are three years away from an election in turbulent times! Who knows? Much is possible now but wont be by 2028, way too early to plan at that level of detail.
IF Reform were to collapse - possible given the track record of previous Farage vehicles* - and the left is split between various equal entities, you could have a Tory majority similar to what Starmer achieved in 2024.
*I wasn't thinking small planes, but...
On what for any other party would be a terrible day one has to admire PB Tory optimism.
A terrible day? Nah - a blackhead has been squeezed out of the party.
I can see the underlying logic now for Badenoch to adjust towards the centre. It's now impossible for her to take on Reform, and there is a yawning chasm in the middle given how weak Labour and the Lib Dems are (12% is very poor in these circumstances). The recent uptick in the polls does look like vaguely normal people are lending the Conservatives an ear again.
Not convinced she is the right person to do it though - unless she manages to stop doom-scrolling.
Here's the thing, though. The Conservative and Reform vote shares have been almost mirror images of each other. If she grabs a LibDem voters (of which there aren't that many), but loses one to Reform, then while she's shoring up some of those Shire seats, she's ensuring that the Conservatives lose in a bunch of other seats.
It's a tough gig she's got.
Tory strategy should be London N and W fringes and wealthy centre, rural seats and blue wall. Let Reform and Labour fight to a standstill in the red wall and cities They are fighting to get to 175 seats, any ambition above that is wasted this time around
We are three years away from an election in turbulent times! Who knows? Much is possible now but wont be by 2028, way too early to plan at that level of detail.
IF Reform were to collapse - possible given the track record of previous Farage vehicles* - and the left is split between various equal entities, you could have a Tory majority similar to what Starmer achieved in 2024.
*I wasn't thinking small planes, but...
They dont even have to collapse, the Ref Con tipping points are pretty sharp once the Cons are even slightly ahead. On electionmaps fwiw this far out, with Lab 20, LD 12, G14 then
Ref 30 Con 20 - Ref 337 seats, Con 51 Ref 28 Con 22 - Ref 291, Con 88 Ref 26 Con 24 - Ref 223, Con 145 Ref 25 Con 25 - Ref 173, Con 201 Ref 24 Con 26 - Ref 141, Con 233 Ref 22 Con 28 - Ref 100, Con 283 Ref 20 Con 30 - Ref 66, Con 327 Ref 17 Con 33 - Ref 39, Con 369
Do you think Reform UK members will accept the man who opened the asylum hotels?
Farage: "I'm getting people in who are apologetic, indeed ashamed, of what they've done in the past."
This is totally humiliating for Robert Jenrick.
You have to eat some humble pie if you make the decision to defect. The 'I didn't leave my party, it left me' gambit is not always viable, and certainly not here, since the Tories haven't changed that much since 2024.
The difficulty with that argument is that there are enough centrist dorks around to render Reform the party that is least wanted by the greatest number, despite the fervent support it has from the other 30%, and despite the justified dislike for other parties as well. The defections of Jenrick and Zahawi, I suggest, will not reduce the hostile number.
A very, very impressive, if extremely dark and unwelcomed speech by Jenrick. He has the oratorical gift of that other son of Wolverhampton and I have been warning Tories that Reform are not your friends for a while. Jenrick's absolute assassination of the party he belonged to until lunchtime was totally disingenuous.
Classic pitfall of defections. I recall Carswell eviscerarting the Tories, but so much that it just begs the question why it took so long to defect in that case, which is never very satisfactorily answered. So long as you (or your new party) are popular enough you can mostly whether that, but it has to be psycologically taxing to pretend things were as bad as you claim, yet out of sheer loyalty you stuck it out for that long.
I only dare whisper it on here, but maybe not a bad day for Labour. Growth up a bit more than expected. Hospital waiting lists down a bit - in the depths of winter. FTSE booming still. Musk/Grok capitulate to Starmer (yes, I know). And open warfare on the right.
I can see the underlying logic now for Badenoch to adjust towards the centre. It's now impossible for her to take on Reform, and there is a yawning chasm in the middle given how weak Labour and the Lib Dems are (12% is very poor in these circumstances). The recent uptick in the polls does look like vaguely normal people are lending the Conservatives an ear again.
Not convinced she is the right person to do it though - unless she manages to stop doom-scrolling.
I wouldn't describe it as tacking to the centre, but as fighting on more advantageous territory for the Tories.
If the Tories concentrate on the economy, on taxes and spending, on policies to increase growth, then that's better territory for them than trying to outdo Farage on immigration, or remigration, etc. The economic policies could be quite right-wing, rather than centrist, but it's the change in topic that makes the main difference.
Yes. Actual right-wing governance that walks the walk. That would be good.
Reform and their supporters are not properly right-wing; it's all just a symptom of modern-day 'narrative' wankery whereby saying something must make it so. Throwing around terms like 'far right', 'fascist', and even 'centrist' like a shit-flinging chimp without giving any thought to the actual definition has become way too commonplace.
The defining feature of the modern far right is that Muslims are despoiling the West. All far rightists believe this. Everyone who believes it is far right.
Reform will be damaged the more of these inept, stupid and failed ex Tory ministers they bring in. People want to vote against the uniparty, so how does plastering the likes of Zahawi and now Jenrick into senior positions help?
I know that Reform were desperately short of talent, but come on...
As for the reported forthcoming Lab to RefCon defectee, I have one name and one name only for you:
RAYNER
Queen of the North
The aspect that helps Reform is when the former minister prostates themselves in front of Farage and begs the Dear Leader for forgiveness for their past transgressions and failures.
There is more joy in heaven over a sinner who repents, after all.
It's the act of repentance, the admission of guilt, that is so valuable
I can see the underlying logic now for Badenoch to adjust towards the centre. It's now impossible for her to take on Reform, and there is a yawning chasm in the middle given how weak Labour and the Lib Dems are (12% is very poor in these circumstances). The recent uptick in the polls does look like vaguely normal people are lending the Conservatives an ear again.
Not convinced she is the right person to do it though - unless she manages to stop doom-scrolling.
Here's the thing, though. The Conservative and Reform vote shares have been almost mirror images of each other. If she grabs a LibDem voters (of which there aren't that many), but loses one to Reform, then while she's shoring up some of those Shire seats, she's ensuring that the Conservatives lose in a bunch of other seats.
It's a tough gig she's got.
Tory strategy should be London N and W fringes and wealthy centre, rural seats and blue wall. Let Reform and Labour fight to a standstill in the red wall and cities They are fighting to get to 175 seats, any ambition above that is wasted this time around
We are three years away from an election in turbulent times! Who knows? Much is possible now but wont be by 2028, way too early to plan at that level of detail.
IF Reform were to collapse - possible given the track record of previous Farage vehicles* - and the left is split between various equal entities, you could have a Tory majority similar to what Starmer achieved in 2024.
*I wasn't thinking small planes, but...
They dont even have to collapse, the Ref Con tipping points are pretty sharp once the Cons are even slightly ahead. On electionmaps fwiw this far out, with Lab 20, LD 12, G14 then
Ref 30 Con 20 - Ref 337 seats, Con 51 Ref 28 Con 22 - Ref 291, Con 88 Ref 26 Con 24 - Ref 223, Con 145 Ref 25 Con 25 - Ref 173, Con 201 Ref 24 Con 26 - Ref 141, Con 233 Ref 22 Con 28 - Ref 100, Con 283 Ref 20 Con 30 - Ref 66, Con 327 Ref 17 Con 33 - Ref 39, Con 369
I can see Reform dropping to 15%. They need to get some serious scrutiny of their programme - but we have three years for all the other parties to rip them to shreds.
So, Jenrick has decided the writing is on the wall and kowtowing to Farage is the future for the right.
He could end up correct, Badenoch has shown some steel which will please some, but the Tory coalition remains fragile. And for all the 'good riddance' comments no doubt out there, he was a big name for them (out of a small remaining pool).
It will be fascinating if this galvanises the most tribal Tories, or the glut of Tories to Reform suddenly makes Badenoch more appealing to the centrist right.
Kemi has played this well. Nick Timothy is a pretty good fit for the justice role - not one to particularly please our tumescent centrists - a sensible choice and a man with a rising profile. As I said this morning a tactical win but still a strategic loss.
Farage himself is the biggest winner - instead of Jenrick triumpantly entering Reform-land he's had to beg at the door for Nigel to let him in. That's going to require Jenrick to be assiduously loyal in a way he never was to Badenoch. He rarely complimented her in interviews - frankly the relationship seemed distant if temporarily convenient.
I only dare whisper it on here, but maybe not a bad day for Labour. Growth up a bit more than expected. Hospital waiting lists down a bit - in the depths of winter. FTSE booming still. Musk/Grok capitulate to Starmer (yes, I know). And open warfare on the right.
Labours biggest problem is comms. They are absolutely terrible. My expectation is they will start to make some slow progress reversing the folly of the last government but get zero credit for it. However that progress will shift the dial away from Reform and make a return to the Conservatives more palatable.
So for Labour to get any credit, in a world where they have no friendly media at all, they need a massive turnaround in comms that feels desperately unlikely. Streeting as leader in 27/early 28 is probably the best bet but he would lose to someone pitching left of him in any contest.
To be clear I don't the government is very good and it doesn't have my support, but I think it is better than the last ones.
I only dare whisper it on here, but maybe not a bad day for Labour. Growth up a bit more than expected. Hospital waiting lists down a bit - in the depths of winter. FTSE booming still. Musk/Grok capitulate to Starmer (yes, I know). And open warfare on the right.
Its a long way to go. May elections will be grim.
Starmer seems pretty thick skinned and will try to sit it out. Green shoots and that.
I can see the underlying logic now for Badenoch to adjust towards the centre. It's now impossible for her to take on Reform, and there is a yawning chasm in the middle given how weak Labour and the Lib Dems are (12% is very poor in these circumstances). The recent uptick in the polls does look like vaguely normal people are lending the Conservatives an ear again.
Not convinced she is the right person to do it though - unless she manages to stop doom-scrolling.
Here's the thing, though. The Conservative and Reform vote shares have been almost mirror images of each other. If she grabs a LibDem voters (of which there aren't that many), but loses one to Reform, then while she's shoring up some of those Shire seats, she's ensuring that the Conservatives lose in a bunch of other seats.
It's a tough gig she's got.
Tory strategy should be London N and W fringes and wealthy centre, rural seats and blue wall. Let Reform and Labour fight to a standstill in the red wall and cities They are fighting to get to 175 seats, any ambition above that is wasted this time around
We are three years away from an election in turbulent times! Who knows? Much is possible now but wont be by 2028, way too early to plan at that level of detail.
IF Reform were to collapse - possible given the track record of previous Farage vehicles* - and the left is split between various equal entities, you could have a Tory majority similar to what Starmer achieved in 2024.
*I wasn't thinking small planes, but...
They dont even have to collapse, the Ref Con tipping points are pretty sharp once the Cons are even slightly ahead. On electionmaps fwiw this far out, with Lab 20, LD 12, G14 then
Ref 30 Con 20 - Ref 337 seats, Con 51 Ref 28 Con 22 - Ref 291, Con 88 Ref 26 Con 24 - Ref 223, Con 145 Ref 25 Con 25 - Ref 173, Con 201 Ref 24 Con 26 - Ref 141, Con 233 Ref 22 Con 28 - Ref 100, Con 283 Ref 20 Con 30 - Ref 66, Con 327 Ref 17 Con 33 - Ref 39, Con 369
I can see Reform dropping to 15%. They need to get some serious scrutiny of their programme - but we have three years for all the other parties to rip them to shreds.
Which they will.
Those who have a distaste for Reform engage in too much wishful thinking.
These two defections go quite a long way to allaying my fears that the next government will be too green to get anything useful done. What they desperately need are some absolute barstewards that know Whitehall, have the battle scars of past fights with the civil service, and who can manipulate old and new media.
They are not there yet but you can start to see the meat going on the bones. Enough that I am signing up to the membership this evening, as a means of getting some policy ideas in there, because it makes me think they are indeed now very likely to for the next government.
I can see the underlying logic now for Badenoch to adjust towards the centre. It's now impossible for her to take on Reform, and there is a yawning chasm in the middle given how weak Labour and the Lib Dems are (12% is very poor in these circumstances). The recent uptick in the polls does look like vaguely normal people are lending the Conservatives an ear again.
Not convinced she is the right person to do it though - unless she manages to stop doom-scrolling.
Here's the thing, though. The Conservative and Reform vote shares have been almost mirror images of each other. If she grabs a LibDem voters (of which there aren't that many), but loses one to Reform, then while she's shoring up some of those Shire seats, she's ensuring that the Conservatives lose in a bunch of other seats.
It's a tough gig she's got.
Tory strategy should be London N and W fringes and wealthy centre, rural seats and blue wall. Let Reform and Labour fight to a standstill in the red wall and cities They are fighting to get to 175 seats, any ambition above that is wasted this time around
We are three years away from an election in turbulent times! Who knows? Much is possible now but wont be by 2028, way too early to plan at that level of detail.
IF Reform were to collapse - possible given the track record of previous Farage vehicles* - and the left is split between various equal entities, you could have a Tory majority similar to what Starmer achieved in 2024.
*I wasn't thinking small planes, but...
They dont even have to collapse, the Ref Con tipping points are pretty sharp once the Cons are even slightly ahead. On electionmaps fwiw this far out, with Lab 20, LD 12, G14 then
Ref 30 Con 20 - Ref 337 seats, Con 51 Ref 28 Con 22 - Ref 291, Con 88 Ref 26 Con 24 - Ref 223, Con 145 Ref 25 Con 25 - Ref 173, Con 201 Ref 24 Con 26 - Ref 141, Con 233 Ref 22 Con 28 - Ref 100, Con 283 Ref 20 Con 30 - Ref 66, Con 327 Ref 17 Con 33 - Ref 39, Con 369
I can see Reform dropping to 15%. They need to get some serious scrutiny of their programme - but we have three years for all the other parties to rip them to shreds.
Which they will.
They have all done a shocking job so far. They have all failed to score in the open goal that is Nathan Gill. The Conservatives have been worse than the rest on this point.
I can see the underlying logic now for Badenoch to adjust towards the centre. It's now impossible for her to take on Reform, and there is a yawning chasm in the middle given how weak Labour and the Lib Dems are (12% is very poor in these circumstances). The recent uptick in the polls does look like vaguely normal people are lending the Conservatives an ear again.
Not convinced she is the right person to do it though - unless she manages to stop doom-scrolling.
Here's the thing, though. The Conservative and Reform vote shares have been almost mirror images of each other. If she grabs a LibDem voters (of which there aren't that many), but loses one to Reform, then while she's shoring up some of those Shire seats, she's ensuring that the Conservatives lose in a bunch of other seats.
It's a tough gig she's got.
Tory strategy should be London N and W fringes and wealthy centre, rural seats and blue wall. Let Reform and Labour fight to a standstill in the red wall and cities They are fighting to get to 175 seats, any ambition above that is wasted this time around
We are three years away from an election in turbulent times! Who knows? Much is possible now but wont be by 2028, way too early to plan at that level of detail.
IF Reform were to collapse - possible given the track record of previous Farage vehicles* - and the left is split between various equal entities, you could have a Tory majority similar to what Starmer achieved in 2024.
*I wasn't thinking small planes, but...
They dont even have to collapse, the Ref Con tipping points are pretty sharp once the Cons are even slightly ahead. On electionmaps fwiw this far out, with Lab 20, LD 12, G14 then
Ref 30 Con 20 - Ref 337 seats, Con 51 Ref 28 Con 22 - Ref 291, Con 88 Ref 26 Con 24 - Ref 223, Con 145 Ref 25 Con 25 - Ref 173, Con 201 Ref 24 Con 26 - Ref 141, Con 233 Ref 22 Con 28 - Ref 100, Con 283 Ref 20 Con 30 - Ref 66, Con 327 Ref 17 Con 33 - Ref 39, Con 369
I can see Reform dropping to 15%. They need to get some serious scrutiny of their programme - but we have three years for all the other parties to rip them to shreds.
Which they will.
Those who have a distaste for Reform engage in too much wishful thinking.
These two defections go quite a long way to allaying my fears that the next government will be too green to get anything useful done. What they desperately need are some absolute barstewards that know Whitehall, have the battle scars of past fights with the civil service, and who can manipulate old and new media.
They are not there yet but you can start to see the meat going on the bones. Enough that I am signing up to the membership this evening, as a means of getting some policy ideas in there, because it makes me think they are indeed now very likely to for the next government.
Can we blame you for the crap that will likely emerge if they are successful*?
*Seriously doubt they will as NF is a serial loser.
I only dare whisper it on here, but maybe not a bad day for Labour. Growth up a bit more than expected. Hospital waiting lists down a bit - in the depths of winter. FTSE booming still. Musk/Grok capitulate to Starmer (yes, I know). And open warfare on the right.
Labours biggest problem is comms. They are absolutely terrible. My expectation is they will start to make some slow progress reversing the folly of the last government but get zero credit for it. However that progress will shift the dial away from Reform and make a return to the Conservatives more palatable.
So for Labour to get any credit, in a world where they have no friendly media at all, they need a massive turnaround in comms that feels desperately unlikely. Streeting as leader in 27/early 28 is probably the best bet but he would lose to someone pitching left of him in any contest.
To be clear I don't the government is very good and it doesn't have my support, but I think it is better than the last ones.
I don't think Streeting necessarily loses a leadership contest. He's a good fav at current prices imo.
Comments
It's why a lot of people are cynical about the game!
Farage is probably the only one, but once PM will inevitably go the way of Boris and quickly be persona non grata with 75% of the country. Talking is not a sufficient skill for being PM. Jenrick is not just a snake but a blatantly incompetent one, messing up his defection not just once but again by being late to the stage in the presser.
The lack of serious and capable politicians afflicts all the parties pretty equally. Reform are going to pitch up with a shadow cabinet full of the people who they admit have already failed.
Yahoo!
On the whole centrist dorks swing elections.
All politicians are obscenely ambitious, and will happily knife each other. It’s what they do
The voters only care as to whether they are effective. This is whats done for Starmer and Labour. Voters would forgive all the greed and grift and hypocrisy - even the treachery - if Labour were competent and effective and made us richer. But Labour are the opposite of that. And thus they are punished
Few will have noticed Jenrick's first speech as a Farage acolyte, and fewer still will have listened to more than thirty seconds of it.
Whether he's a net benefit to Reform is an open question.
But it's pretty certain that sacking him has proved Badenoch with a personal boost. If nothing else, it keeps her as leader for the rest of this year I think ?
But you're right; most people who even noticed this will have forgotten about it in a couple of weeks' time.
Six months ago, I thought the Conservatives had made a terrible mistake and that Jenrick should replace the invisible and immature Badenoch. He made some great YouTubes about fare dodging and managed to get himself some press, and I thought "this man actually get hit; the Conservatives would be crazy not to defenestrate Kemi".
But then Kemi stopped being quite as crap. The Tory vote share has been on the rise, and Kemi has started to grow into her job (albeit she's still a bit lazy). Jenrick also failed to find other items of salience and disappeared off the screen.
Jenrick -rightly I think- has realized his time to grab the Crown has passed.
But it is a fundamentally risky move for him, not because Reform isn't popular. (Reform is popular, even if it's poll ratings have come back somewhat.) But it's risky because Farage falls out with everyone. Farage -historically- has brooked no competition. If you outshine him, then you are ousted. Can Jenrick form a more enduring bond with Farage than Diana James, Alan Sked, Richard Tice, Rupert Lowe, Douglas Carswell, and Suzanne Evans?
One for the Rosie for the Tories club
Not convinced she is the right person to do it though - unless she manages to stop doom-scrolling.
Welcome back
He's still in Bangkok.
"From 1970 to 2007 real wages went down by one-third every ten years. Since then, they flatlined."
Is that remotely true? Is there any truthiness to it? Is it a classic Guardian mistake? (Should it maybe be "up" rather than "down"?)
It's a tough gig she's got.
It is about time Tory rampers put business before pleasure and turned on the party of Russian spies. I reiterate, Reform are not your friends.
If the Tories concentrate on the economy, on taxes and spending, on policies to increase growth, then that's better territory for them than trying to outdo Farage on immigration, or remigration, etc. The economic policies could be quite right-wing, rather than centrist, but it's the change in topic that makes the main difference.
What are you suggesting? That a Commons majority of newly-elected Reform MPs will make Jenrick PM, rather than Farage? Good luck keeping a plot like that secret.
They are fighting to get to 175 seats, any ambition above that is wasted this time around
Jenrick is a wet fart.
I have always been firm in my great dislike of both.
A Leadership Challenge requires 50% of members (aka 180k?) to write to the Chairman, and a Board meeting to vote against the leader.
6.28.A motion of no confidence in the Party Leader may be proposed in two ways:
6.28.1. by 50 Members of the Parliamentary Party or 50% of the Members of the Parliamentary Party (whichever is greater), writing to the Chairman and requesting a motion of no confidence. For the avoidance of doubt, clause 6.28.1 is only applicable in the event that the Parliamentary Party consists of more than 100 MPs;
or 6.28.2. by 50% of all Members in Good Standing writing to the Chairman requesting a motion of no confidence. In either case such a request shall only be valid for 60 days from the day of receipt, after that time the Chairman shall disregard such requests.
...
6.31.In the event of a motion of no confidence in the Party Leader being passed by the Board the Party Leader shall be deemed to have resigned.
https://reformuk.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/Reform_UK_Constitution.pdf
Locals certainly suggest they are very dead in the red wall, Stockton aside!
NEW: Westminster Voting Intention (Survation)
RFM 29 (-)
LAB 21 (-1)
CON 19 (+1)
LD 11 (-1)
GRN 11 (-)
OTH 8 (+2)
F/w 10th - 14th January 2026. Changes vs 29th November.
However you overlook the fact that however ghastly they all are, someone has to form a government; if the voter is the bear, the party doesn't have to be faster than the bear, it has to be faster than the other parties. They are all a bit slow, but the least slow doesn't get eaten and forms a government.
The Tory top table may not be great. But they are seriously in the actual contest for which top table is least ungreat. After Zahawi and Jenrick in the last three days, the Reform top table looks substantially worse than it did on Monday morning. They may be popular but they are still a joke.
From 1970 to 2007, real wages rose by a third every decade. Since then, they have (in almost every developed country save Australia, Canada, Switzerland and Norway) largely flatlined.
I'm assuming that it is the Guardian that got it wrong rather than Jenrick, but who knows.
Reform and their supporters are not properly right-wing; it's all just a symptom of modern-day 'narrative' wankery whereby saying something must make it so. Throwing around terms like 'far right', 'fascist', and even 'centrist' like a shit-flinging chimp without giving any thought to the actual definition has become way too commonplace.
Fuck knows why, but I was watching it.
I think I once advised that a strategy of flushing out the defectors could work for her - let's see what comes of this. I think there's some chance of the Jenrick-Farage relationship being as fraught down the line as the Sultana-Corbyn one.
Do you think Reform UK members will accept the man who opened the asylum hotels?
Farage: "I'm getting people in who are apologetic, indeed ashamed, of what they've done in the past."
This is totally humiliating for Robert Jenrick.
Seriously, I think you are well shot of the little shit.
Greetings from Manchester
I know that Reform were desperately short of talent, but come on...
As for the reported forthcoming Lab to RefCon defectee, I have one name and one name only for you:
RAYNER
Queen of the North
*I wasn't thinking small planes, but...
Faint praise.
Reform: “Britain is broken. And what we need in our party are people who have frontline experience of breaking it”.
He could end up correct, Badenoch has shown some steel which will please some, but the Tory coalition remains fragile. And for all the 'good riddance' comments no doubt out there, he was a big name for them (out of a small remaining pool).
It will be fascinating if this galvanises the most tribal Tories, or the glut of Tories to Reform suddenly makes Badenoch more appealing to the centrist right.
Ref 30 Con 20 - Ref 337 seats, Con 51
Ref 28 Con 22 - Ref 291, Con 88
Ref 26 Con 24 - Ref 223, Con 145
Ref 25 Con 25 - Ref 173, Con 201
Ref 24 Con 26 - Ref 141, Con 233
Ref 22 Con 28 - Ref 100, Con 283
Ref 20 Con 30 - Ref 66, Con 327
Ref 17 Con 33 - Ref 39, Con 369
And open warfare on the right.
Meanwhile theres always a tweet.
There is more joy in heaven over a sinner who repents, after all.
It's the act of repentance, the admission of guilt, that is so valuable
Which they will.
Farage himself is the biggest winner - instead of Jenrick triumpantly entering Reform-land he's had to beg at the door for Nigel to let him in. That's going to require Jenrick to be assiduously loyal in a way he never was to Badenoch. He rarely complimented her in interviews - frankly the relationship seemed distant if temporarily convenient.
So for Labour to get any credit, in a world where they have no friendly media at all, they need a massive turnaround in comms that feels desperately unlikely. Streeting as leader in 27/early 28 is probably the best bet but he would lose to someone pitching left of him in any contest.
To be clear I don't the government is very good and it doesn't have my support, but I think it is better than the last ones.
Starmer seems pretty thick skinned and will try to sit it out. Green shoots and that.
These two defections go quite a long way to allaying my fears that the next government will be too green to get anything useful done. What they desperately need are some absolute barstewards that know Whitehall, have the battle scars of past fights with the civil service, and who can manipulate old and new media.
They are not there yet but you can start to see the meat going on the bones. Enough that I am signing up to the membership this evening, as a means of getting some policy ideas in there, because it makes me think they are indeed now very likely to for the next government.
Then Jenrick can serve under Badenoch after all that.
I assume Farage would disappear to spend more time doing Cameo videos.
*Seriously doubt they will as NF is a serial loser.