"NEW: There is belief among Tory MPs that Robert Jenrick was not going to defect Reform UK, and are now calling on Kemi Badenoch to publish Robert Jenrick's alleged resignation letter"
"One MP ally of Jenrick's says: "Unless he's signed it and sealed it with his own blood, just because it's a bit of paper with his name on doesn't mean it's real.""
I that case Jenrick needs to issue a statement: I was never, ever, ever going to defect (ask Nigel). This is all a terrible misunderstanding. May I have my old job back.
Farage already said nothing was signed and agreed and that he regularly talks to all sorts of people and floats the idea of defection. Would be hilarious if Kemi has walked into an elephant trap and Jenrick ends up ousting her as a result.
Jenrick too clever by half and met his match by Badenoch
Farage will be next on her list
Jenricks membership of the conservative party is over as confirmed by Holinrake just now
I have to say that I was convinced that Jenrick was positioning himself as the "Unite the Right" candidate to bring together Tories and Reform after the next election. That seemed to me, for someone of his overweening ambition, the most sensible approach.
Ah, well. Looks like I was wrong. And he was bit too overweening for his own good if he was, indeed, planning to defect.
Certainly, a decisive strike from Kemi which may prove a helpful contrast with Sir Keir who has more than enough rivals, but isn't in a position to stamp on them.
Danger to Kemi is of destabilisation of party. My suggestion is that she should seek out a big name, trusted by the party members, to take on party chairmanship. When WIlliam Hague took over the shattered party in 1997 he brought back Cecil Parkinson as chairman. If he could be persuaded, Hague would be ideal to fill that role himself.
Delighted to announce that @NJ_Timothy is the new Shadow Justice Secretary.
As an MP, Nick has led the way in revealing the failure of West Midlands Police Chief over the Maccabi football ban, and in opposing Labour's sinister Islamophobia definition.
He is a true Conservative, brings a wealth of experience, and is a formidable campaigner.
Nick will be a massive asset to the Shadow Cabinet team as we continue to develop our plans for a stronger economy, stronger borders and a stronger country
Farage just said live on Sky he hasn't decided yet on Jenrick
Interesting. So that suggests Jenrick had submitted his application. But why start writing defection speeches and leave them on photocopiers if the application hadn't been formally accepted? Was Jenrick being presumptuous? Did Nigel drop strong hints that he's now rowing back from?
"NEW: There is belief among Tory MPs that Robert Jenrick was not going to defect Reform UK, and are now calling on Kemi Badenoch to publish Robert Jenrick's alleged resignation letter"
"One MP ally of Jenrick's says: "Unless he's signed it and sealed it with his own blood, just because it's a bit of paper with his name on doesn't mean it's real.""
I that case Jenrick needs to issue a statement: I was never, ever, ever going to defect (ask Nigel). This is all a terrible misunderstanding. May I have my old job back.
Farage already said nothing was signed and agreed and that he regularly talks to all sorts of people and floats the idea of defection. Would be hilarious if Kemi has walked into an elephant trap and Jenrick ends up ousting her as a result.
My reaction to this story was 'why does anyone use a photocopier these days?' If the document was written on a computer, just print more copies. If it was hand-written, on the other hand, RJ's in the dog house. Equally so if it's a typed document with RJ's hand-written annotations. But if it's a clean typescript it would be fairly easy for a not-so-well wisher to forge and leave lying around. Who were the extra copies for?
Combined photocopier/printer/scanner devices are popular in offices as they reduce the floorspace needed for each. I would assume it's one of those and people just call it the 'copier'.
Farage just said live on Sky he hasn't decided yet on Jenrick
Interesting. So that suggests Jenrick had submitted his application. But why start writing defection speeches and leave them on photocopiers if the application hadn't been formally accepted? Was Jenrick being presumptuous? Did Nigel drop strong hints that he's now rowing back from?
They cooked up a wizard plan and got caught. Jenrick has been exposed so Nigel has to try and evacuate safely. Nigel better hope the evidence doesnt embarass him
"NEW: There is belief among Tory MPs that Robert Jenrick was not going to defect Reform UK, and are now calling on Kemi Badenoch to publish Robert Jenrick's alleged resignation letter"
"One MP ally of Jenrick's says: "Unless he's signed it and sealed it with his own blood, just because it's a bit of paper with his name on doesn't mean it's real.""
I that case Jenrick needs to issue a statement: I was never, ever, ever going to defect (ask Nigel). This is all a terrible misunderstanding. May I have my old job back.
Farage already said nothing was signed and agreed and that he regularly talks to all sorts of people and floats the idea of defection. Would be hilarious if Kemi has walked into an elephant trap and Jenrick ends up ousting her as a result.
My reaction to this story was 'why does anyone use a photocopier these days?' If the document was written on a computer, just print more copies. If it was hand-written, on the other hand, RJ's in the dog house. Equally so if it's a typed document with RJ's hand-written annotations. But if it's a clean typescript it would be fairly easy for a not-so-well wisher to forge and leave lying around. Who were the extra copies for?
Many “photocopiers” in offices are multifunction scanner/printer/copiers. Look like the massive old photocopiers. Networked so anyone can connect to them.
The ones in our office will collate copies and staple them for you, if you want.
On a slightly different point Russia has now suffered 1.22m casualties in Ukraine. To put that into perspective it is more than 20x the casualties that the US suffered in Vietnam (58k) traumatising a nation and producing endless songs, films, books and documentaries. And this is from a significantly lower population of 144m compared with the US population of 200m in 1968. Russia continues to suffer a Vietnam of casualties every 2 months. Trump is as mad as a box of frogs but Putin is a sociopath of a completely different order.
1.22m is roughly 3x the casualties suffered by the British armed forces in the entirety of WWII. In almost every civilised country feeding that many people into a failed war would result in riots, a breakdown of order and regime change.
Rather than compare present day autocratic Russia with democratic Britain in WW2, compare with autocratic Russia in WW2. The various estimates of actual deaths in Russia's forces in Ukraine average in the ball park of 350,000 (+- 100,000 or so). In WW2 the number of dead and missing in Russian forces was more than 20x that figure. Both conflicts lasted 4 years (so far), focusing only on the substantive conflicts.
It wasn't Russian forces in WWII. It was the USSR - including Ukraine. Then, as now, losses were concentrated among the populations of the periphery of the Empire.
The more important difference is that Putin hasn't used conscription to fight the war. He's been able to attract enough "volunteers" using financial incentives and various degrees of coercion short of formal conscription. Lots of the Soviet troops deployed to Afghanistan were conscripts, and so smaller losses had a greater impact.
The dead he can take, the collapsing Russian economy he can't.
"After premiering in May 1981, the film was released theatrically in the United States and Canada in September 1982, before being quickly withdrawn due to critical and financial failure. Though the film never received a home video release, it has occasionally been broadcast on television. It was the largest financial loss in film of 1982, earning less than $2 million against its lofty budget and resulting in losses of around $41 million. Reviewers at the time gave it consistently negative reviews and later commentators including Newsweek, TV Guide and The Canadian Press have classed Inchon among the worst films of all time."
Thank God the Tories have got rid of that arrogant schemer from the Shadow Justice Sec portfolio. Now to take a big gulp of coffee and check who the new Shadow Justice Sec is.
Farage just said live on Sky he hasn't decided yet on Jenrick
Interesting. So that suggests Jenrick had submitted his application. But why start writing defection speeches and leave them on photocopiers if the application hadn't been formally accepted? Was Jenrick being presumptuous? Did Nigel drop strong hints that he's now rowing back from?
Had Badenoch not caught wind of his plans, of course Farage would be welcoming Jenrick into Reform UK with open arms and a big press conference. A high-profile defecting MP, Reform would have been jumping at that opportunity.
Now the game is up, it’s in Farage’s interest to play it cool, to try and look as if he is control of the narrative, when the reality if that he’s just lost control of it.
Robert Jenrick's defection to be announced at imminent Reform UK press conference in a last minute change of plan for the event according to multiple reports in Westminster
Farage just said live on Sky he hasn't decided yet on Jenrick
Lol, Bobbins in the wilderness
We won't see a hand played so disastrously since, oh, Traitors last night?
Reforms problem remains this Ben Eltonesque 'grrr the TOREEZ' nonsense and trying to destroy them with stunts involving, um, Tories Its starting to backfire badly
On a slightly different point Russia has now suffered 1.22m casualties in Ukraine. To put that into perspective it is more than 20x the casualties that the US suffered in Vietnam (58k) traumatising a nation and producing endless songs, films, books and documentaries. And this is from a significantly lower population of 144m compared with the US population of 200m in 1968. Russia continues to suffer a Vietnam of casualties every 2 months. Trump is as mad as a box of frogs but Putin is a sociopath of a completely different order.
1.22m is roughly 3x the casualties suffered by the British armed forces in the entirety of WWII. In almost every civilised country feeding that many people into a failed war would result in riots, a breakdown of order and regime change.
Rather than compare present day autocratic Russia with democratic Britain in WW2, compare with autocratic Russia in WW2. The various estimates of actual deaths in Russia's forces in Ukraine average in the ball park of 350,000 (+- 100,000 or so). In WW2 the number of dead and missing in Russian forces was more than 20x that figure. Both conflicts lasted 4 years (so far), focusing only on the substantive conflicts.
It wasn't Russian forces in WWII. It was the USSR - including Ukraine. Then, as now, losses were concentrated among the populations of the periphery of the Empire.
The more important difference is that Putin hasn't used conscription to fight the war. He's been able to attract enough "volunteers" using financial incentives and various degrees of coercion short of formal conscription. Lots of the Soviet troops deployed to Afghanistan were conscripts, and so smaller losses had a greater impact.
The dead he can take, the collapsing Russian economy he can't.
Unless oil exports come to a sudden halt (unfortunately they rebounded in December after Ukrainian damage to an oil terminal caused a fall in November) he can keep things going until the end of 2026 at least. There's a lot of ruin in a country.
Thank God the Tories have got rid of that arrogant schemer from the Shadow Justice Sec portfolio. Now to take a big gulp of coffee and check who the new Shadow Justice Sec is.
Robert Jenrick's defection to be announced at imminent Reform UK press conference in a last minute change of plan for the event according to multiple reports in Westminster
Given he's been stripped of the whip would this count as Con > Ind > Ref?
Robert Jenrick's defection to be announced at imminent Reform UK press conference in a last minute change of plan for the event according to multiple reports in Westminster
"Last minute change of plan for the event"
Anyone believing that is welcome to buy a bridge off me.
"After premiering in May 1981, the film was released theatrically in the United States and Canada in September 1982, before being quickly withdrawn due to critical and financial failure. Though the film never received a home video release, it has occasionally been broadcast on television. It was the largest financial loss in film of 1982, earning less than $2 million against its lofty budget and resulting in losses of around $41 million. Reviewers at the time gave it consistently negative reviews and later commentators including Newsweek, TV Guide and The Canadian Press have classed Inchon among the worst films of all time."
Robert Jenrick's defection to be announced at imminent Reform UK press conference in a last minute change of plan for the event according to multiple reports in Westminster
Given he's been stripped of the whip would this count as Con > Ind > Ref?
That’s why I’m way of bets about the number of MPs defecting from Con to Ref as many defectors, not just Jenrick, go through an independent stage in between.
I returned because the Jenrick thing is too delicious to skip. I see the consensus on here is that it’s good for Kemi. And she has played it well (if what we are told is true)
1. This shows that Reform are only growing in salience. And are still colonising the right. If the Tories are reduced to wet Lib Dems what’s the point in them?
2. Jenrick is literally the only politician in the shadow cabinet who’s made ANY impact on the political scene since the election. He’s good at social media. He may be a shameless grifter but he’s canny and effective.
He’s fucked this up but as the circus settles down he will - if he moves - still be a big asset for Reform and a big loss for the Tories
I returned because the Jenrick thing is too delicious to skip. I see the consensus on here is that it’s good for Kemi. And she has played it well (if what we are told is true)
1. This shows that Reform are only growing in salience. And are still colonising the right. If the Tories are reduced to wet Lib Dems what’s the point in them?
2. Jenrick is literally the only politician in the shadow cabinet who’s made ANY impact on the political scene since the election. He’s good at social media. He may be a shameless grifter but he’s canny and effective.
He’s fucked this up but as the circus settles down he will - if he moves - still be a big asset for Reform and a big loss for the Tories
So we can add 'Jenrick caused Leon to come back to PB' to his list of heinous crimes?
I returned because the Jenrick thing is too delicious to skip. I see the consensus on here is that it’s good for Kemi. And she has played it well (if what we are told is true)
1. This shows that Reform are only growing in salience. And are still colonising the right. If the Tories are reduced to wet Lib Dems what’s the point in them?
2. Jenrick is literally the only politician in the shadow cabinet who’s made ANY impact on the political scene since the election. He’s good at social media. He may be a shameless grifter but he’s canny and effective.
He’s fucked this up but as the circus settles down he will - if he moves - still be a big asset for Reform and a big loss for the Tories
Nah.
Tie the neck of the Reform ferret-sack tight - and let the fighting commence.
I returned because the Jenrick thing is too delicious to skip. I see the consensus on here is that it’s good for Kemi. And she has played it well (if what we are told is true)
1. This shows that Reform are only growing in salience. And are still colonising the right. If the Tories are reduced to wet Lib Dems what’s the point in them?
2. Jenrick is literally the only politician in the shadow cabinet who’s made ANY impact on the political scene since the election. He’s good at social media. He may be a shameless grifter but he’s canny and effective.
He’s fucked this up but as the circus settles down he will - if he moves - still be a big asset for Reform and a big loss for the Tories
Good to see you back.
I’d like to think this is good for Kemi, but I can’t rule out that is just because I think I like her better than Farage and Jenrick
He's an ambitious little man with a tik tok account who has no principles and who voted to Remain and set up hundreds of migrant hotels who now wants us to believe he is the man to succeed Nigel?
The Tories have just leaked Jenrick's speech, before he makes it
There used to be someone very high up in the Conservative party who was a dab hand at writing two different speeches, then deciding late in the day which one to use. Wonder if RJ has another one up his sleeve?
Jenrick's pitch is that the government of the last decade has been terrible and the only solution is to re-employ the 2019 cabinet with a different colour rosette. He is half right to be fair.
"NEW: There is belief among Tory MPs that Robert Jenrick was not going to defect Reform UK, and are now calling on Kemi Badenoch to publish Robert Jenrick's alleged resignation letter"
"One MP ally of Jenrick's says: "Unless he's signed it and sealed it with his own blood, just because it's a bit of paper with his name on doesn't mean it's real.""
I that case Jenrick needs to issue a statement: I was never, ever, ever going to defect (ask Nigel). This is all a terrible misunderstanding. May I have my old job back.
Farage already said nothing was signed and agreed and that he regularly talks to all sorts of people and floats the idea of defection. Would be hilarious if Kemi has walked into an elephant trap and Jenrick ends up ousting her as a result.
My reaction to this story was 'why does anyone use a photocopier these days?' If the document was written on a computer, just print more copies. If it was hand-written, on the other hand, RJ's in the dog house. Equally so if it's a typed document with RJ's hand-written annotations. But if it's a clean typescript it would be fairly easy for a not-so-well wisher to forge and leave lying around. Who were the extra copies for?
Combined photocopier/printer/scanner devices are popular in offices as they reduce the floorspace needed for each. I would assume it's one of those and people just call it the 'copier'.
The story doing the rounds is that the original document was left under the hood after copies had been removed, so it was being used as a bog-standard photocopier. If Kemi's team declines to release it we'll just have to keep speculating.
I returned because the Jenrick thing is too delicious to skip. I see the consensus on here is that it’s good for Kemi. And she has played it well (if what we are told is true)
1. This shows that Reform are only growing in salience. And are still colonising the right. If the Tories are reduced to wet Lib Dems what’s the point in them?
2. Jenrick is literally the only politician in the shadow cabinet who’s made ANY impact on the political scene since the election. He’s good at social media. He may be a shameless grifter but he’s canny and effective.
He’s fucked this up but as the circus settles down he will - if he moves - still be a big asset for Reform and a big loss for the Tories
Will Farage want Jenrick inside the tent pissing in? I'd say that Farage's position relies on all his colleagues being munchkins.
(My call is that it will be getting more tricky for Farage in 2026 because to my eye the factions seems to be Balkanising.)
(Welcome back, BTW. My cousins have spent Christmas / New Year in Bangkok visiting Number One Son).
"NEW: There is belief among Tory MPs that Robert Jenrick was not going to defect Reform UK, and are now calling on Kemi Badenoch to publish Robert Jenrick's alleged resignation letter"
"One MP ally of Jenrick's says: "Unless he's signed it and sealed it with his own blood, just because it's a bit of paper with his name on doesn't mean it's real.""
I that case Jenrick needs to issue a statement: I was never, ever, ever going to defect (ask Nigel). This is all a terrible misunderstanding. May I have my old job back.
Farage already said nothing was signed and agreed and that he regularly talks to all sorts of people and floats the idea of defection. Would be hilarious if Kemi has walked into an elephant trap and Jenrick ends up ousting her as a result.
My reaction to this story was 'why does anyone use a photocopier these days?' If the document was written on a computer, just print more copies. If it was hand-written, on the other hand, RJ's in the dog house. Equally so if it's a typed document with RJ's hand-written annotations. But if it's a clean typescript it would be fairly easy for a not-so-well wisher to forge and leave lying around. Who were the extra copies for?
Many “photocopiers” in offices are multifunction scanner/printer/copiers. Look like the massive old photocopiers. Networked so anyone can connect to them.
The ones in our office will collate copies and staple them for you, if you want.
There is a word missing in our language. What do you call it when a thread, see above, moves seamlessly, meaningfully and rapidly from, say, a discussion of the merits and significance of a major political coup/defection/plot to a discussion of the meaning of the word 'photocopier' in modern office life. (This is not a criticism, it's a PB speciality and a reason for following it.)
On a slightly different point Russia has now suffered 1.22m casualties in Ukraine. To put that into perspective it is more than 20x the casualties that the US suffered in Vietnam (58k) traumatising a nation and producing endless songs, films, books and documentaries. And this is from a significantly lower population of 144m compared with the US population of 200m in 1968. Russia continues to suffer a Vietnam of casualties every 2 months. Trump is as mad as a box of frogs but Putin is a sociopath of a completely different order.
1.22m is roughly 3x the casualties suffered by the British armed forces in the entirety of WWII. In almost every civilised country feeding that many people into a failed war would result in riots, a breakdown of order and regime change.
Rather than compare present day autocratic Russia with democratic Britain in WW2, compare with autocratic Russia in WW2. The various estimates of actual deaths in Russia's forces in Ukraine average in the ball park of 350,000 (+- 100,000 or so). In WW2 the number of dead and missing in Russian forces was more than 20x that figure. Both conflicts lasted 4 years (so far), focusing only on the substantive conflicts.
It wasn't Russian forces in WWII. It was the USSR - including Ukraine. Then, as now, losses were concentrated among the populations of the periphery of the Empire.
The more important difference is that Putin hasn't used conscription to fight the war. He's been able to attract enough "volunteers" using financial incentives and various degrees of coercion short of formal conscription. Lots of the Soviet troops deployed to Afghanistan were conscripts, and so smaller losses had a greater impact.
The dead he can take, the collapsing Russian economy he can't.
Unless oil exports come to a sudden halt (unfortunately they rebounded in December after Ukrainian damage to an oil terminal caused a fall in November) he can keep things going until the end of 2026 at least. There's a lot of ruin in a country.
Autocratic regimes are like oak trees in a storm.
They barely sway. And then one day they come tumbling down, often far quicker than anyone expected.
The Russian government may survivie 2026 and 2027. It may survive until Putin dies of old age.
It may also collapse in March as Putin suffers an unexpected heart attack, or because the various mostly Muslim parts at Russia's southern edge notice that there isn't a lot of support from Moscow liklely to come if they revolt, or because there are fuel shortages, or because they need to implement conscription.
"NEW: There is belief among Tory MPs that Robert Jenrick was not going to defect Reform UK, and are now calling on Kemi Badenoch to publish Robert Jenrick's alleged resignation letter"
"One MP ally of Jenrick's says: "Unless he's signed it and sealed it with his own blood, just because it's a bit of paper with his name on doesn't mean it's real.""
I that case Jenrick needs to issue a statement: I was never, ever, ever going to defect (ask Nigel). This is all a terrible misunderstanding. May I have my old job back.
Farage already said nothing was signed and agreed and that he regularly talks to all sorts of people and floats the idea of defection. Would be hilarious if Kemi has walked into an elephant trap and Jenrick ends up ousting her as a result.
My reaction to this story was 'why does anyone use a photocopier these days?' If the document was written on a computer, just print more copies. If it was hand-written, on the other hand, RJ's in the dog house. Equally so if it's a typed document with RJ's hand-written annotations. But if it's a clean typescript it would be fairly easy for a not-so-well wisher to forge and leave lying around. Who were the extra copies for?
Many “photocopiers” in offices are multifunction scanner/printer/copiers. Look like the massive old photocopiers. Networked so anyone can connect to them.
The ones in our office will collate copies and staple them for you, if you want.
There is a word missing in our language. What do you call it when a thread, see above, moves seamlessly, meaningfully and rapidly from, say, a discussion of the merits and significance of a major political coup/defection/plot to a discussion of the meaning of the word 'photocopier' in modern office life. (This is not a criticism, it's a PB speciality and a reason for following it.)
If they've been so specific it must have been some old duffer actually making copies - otherwise you just call it a printer. I don't think I've come across someone doing that in about 8 years.
Farage just said live on Sky he hasn't decided yet on Jenrick
Interesting. So that suggests Jenrick had submitted his application. But why start writing defection speeches and leave them on photocopiers if the application hadn't been formally accepted? Was Jenrick being presumptuous? Did Nigel drop strong hints that he's now rowing back from?
Probably all gentleman's agreement so they can (technically) truthfully say that no formal agreement existed.
YouGov now have Badenoch ahead of Davey on best PM matchup polling. This increasingly bad blood between Con/Ref should be to her advantage in Con/Lib fights.
Jenrick's pitch is that the government of the last decade has been terrible and the only solution is to re-employ the 2019 cabinet with a different colour rosette. He is half right to be fair.
Reminds me of Truss saying Boris should not have been ousted and was great, but also that government had been crap and radical change of policy was needed. Continuity and change candidate all in one.
I returned because the Jenrick thing is too delicious to skip. I see the consensus on here is that it’s good for Kemi. And she has played it well (if what we are told is true)
1. This shows that Reform are only growing in salience. And are still colonising the right. If the Tories are reduced to wet Lib Dems what’s the point in them?
2. Jenrick is literally the only politician in the shadow cabinet who’s made ANY impact on the political scene since the election. He’s good at social media. He may be a shameless grifter but he’s canny and effective.
He’s fucked this up but as the circus settles down he will - if he moves - still be a big asset for Reform and a big loss for the Tories
Will Farage want Jenrick inside the tent pissing in? I'd say that Farage's position relies on all his colleagues being munchkins.
(My call is that it will be getting more tricky for Farage in 2026 because to my eye the factions seems to be Balkanising.)
(Welcome back, BTW. My cousins have spent Christmas / New Year in Bangkok visiting Number One Son).
OK. Having caught up with the news, I still wonder whether Farage wants Jenrick inside the tent pissing in.
Now listening to Jenrick's earnest-eyes speech denouncing the Cons for all the things he was the lead protagonist in doing, or for not doing the things he did not do.
I returned because the Jenrick thing is too delicious to skip. I see the consensus on here is that it’s good for Kemi. And she has played it well (if what we are told is true)
1. This shows that Reform are only growing in salience. And are still colonising the right. If the Tories are reduced to wet Lib Dems what’s the point in them?
2. Jenrick is literally the only politician in the shadow cabinet who’s made ANY impact on the political scene since the election. He’s good at social media. He may be a shameless grifter but he’s canny and effective.
He’s fucked this up but as the circus settles down he will - if he moves - still be a big asset for Reform and a big loss for the Tories
Welcome back, and a special welcome as I disagree with all your conclusions, except the one about Jenrick being a shameless grifter, giving me an excuse to predict, again, that by the end of 2026 Reform will not have a consistent or commanding poll lead, and in the next General Election they will come second or third in votes and seats. The Jenrick counter coup confirms this, but not nearly as much as the defection of Zahawi, which marks the beginning of the end.
Farage just said live on Sky he hasn't decided yet on Jenrick
Interesting. So that suggests Jenrick had submitted his application. But why start writing defection speeches and leave them on photocopiers if the application hadn't been formally accepted? Was Jenrick being presumptuous? Did Nigel drop strong hints that he's now rowing back from?
Probably all gentleman's agreement so they can (technically) truthfully say that no formal agreement existed.
Today's the day that Farage lost the next election.
Jenrick was plotting whilst a shadow cabinet member stabbing his colleagues in the back. That will go down like a cup of cold sick with many voters and all his former friends
Today's the day that Farage lost the next election.
It's certainly been a bit of a bugger's muddle. This is almost certainly peak Jenrick. I imagine Nigel will have him running around doing TikTok uploads but not much else. As for Nigel - he had to see it through but I doubt he can now see much of an upside, as some of Jenrick's clowning has inevitably rubbed off on him.
It’s being suggested Jenrick was late to his unveiling because the Conservatives had leaked parts of his speech and he was busy rejiggjng it. They should have waited until he was speaking really
I’d like to think this is good for Kemi, but I can’t rule out that is just because I think I like her better than Farage and Jenrick
Both gentlemen are really quite unlikeable to me.
Kemi doesn't exactly feel like a textbook bestie (I met her when she was the PPC for Dulwich and she seemed cold and a bit awkward) but she's growing on me and way ahead of either of them.
Today's the day that Farage lost the next election.
It's certainly been a bit of a bugger's muddle. This is almost certainly peak Jenrick. I imagine Nigel will have him running around doing TikTok uploads but not much else. As for Nigel - he had to see it through but I doubt he can now see much of an upside, as some of Jenrick's clowning has inevitably rubbed off on him.
On a slightly different point Russia has now suffered 1.22m casualties in Ukraine. To put that into perspective it is more than 20x the casualties that the US suffered in Vietnam (58k) traumatising a nation and producing endless songs, films, books and documentaries. And this is from a significantly lower population of 144m compared with the US population of 200m in 1968. Russia continues to suffer a Vietnam of casualties every 2 months. Trump is as mad as a box of frogs but Putin is a sociopath of a completely different order.
1.22m is roughly 3x the casualties suffered by the British armed forces in the entirety of WWII. In almost every civilised country feeding that many people into a failed war would result in riots, a breakdown of order and regime change.
Rather than compare present day autocratic Russia with democratic Britain in WW2, compare with autocratic Russia in WW2. The various estimates of actual deaths in Russia's forces in Ukraine average in the ball park of 350,000 (+- 100,000 or so). In WW2 the number of dead and missing in Russian forces was more than 20x that figure. Both conflicts lasted 4 years (so far), focusing only on the substantive conflicts.
It wasn't Russian forces in WWII. It was the USSR - including Ukraine. Then, as now, losses were concentrated among the populations of the periphery of the Empire.
The more important difference is that Putin hasn't used conscription to fight the war. He's been able to attract enough "volunteers" using financial incentives and various degrees of coercion short of formal conscription. Lots of the Soviet troops deployed to Afghanistan were conscripts, and so smaller losses had a greater impact.
The dead he can take, the collapsing Russian economy he can't.
Unless oil exports come to a sudden halt (unfortunately they rebounded in December after Ukrainian damage to an oil terminal caused a fall in November) he can keep things going until the end of 2026 at least. There's a lot of ruin in a country.
There is a curious disalignment between Russia and the US on oil prices. Russia wants them as high as possible. The US wants them as low as possible.
If the Ukrainians manage to disrupt Russian oil exports (and, for what it's worth, they are likely to decline slightly in the coming months as temperatures make water injection in colder areas that bit more complicated), then they will simultaneously raise global oil prices and reduce Russian export revenue.
I’d like to think this is good for Kemi, but I can’t rule out that is just because I think I like her better than Farage and Jenrick
Both gentlemen are really quite unlikeable to me.
Kemi doesn't exactly feel like a textbook bestie (I met her when she was the PPC for Dulwich and she seemed cold and a bit awkward) but she's growing on me and way ahead of either of them.
Reform are desperately short of likeability. Parties need a lot of faces that at least can appear ordinarily nice and likeable. Mel Stride and Liz Kendall - picked almost at random - are the Dalai Lama and Mother Theresa if you put them alongside Zahawi and Andrea Jenkins .
Just catching up. Unless I'm missing something, I think a lot of you are falling into the trap of thinking the average voter is more engaged than they are.
I don't think Badenoch catching Jenrick out will have any impact whatsoever on his career or on Reform's prospects. He is a shameless populist joining a party of shameless populists, that are currently wooing the electorate with their shameless populist shithousery.
The average Reform voter will not notice, let alone care, that Jenrick was pushed before he jumped.
I’d like to think this is good for Kemi, but I can’t rule out that is just because I think I like her better than Farage and Jenrick
Both gentlemen are really quite unlikeable to me.
Kemi doesn't exactly feel like a textbook bestie (I met her when she was the PPC for Dulwich and she seemed cold and a bit awkward) but she's growing on me and way ahead of either of them.
Reform are desperately short of likeability. Parties need a lot of faces that at least can appear ordinarily nice and likeable. Mel Stride and Liz Kendall - picked almost at random - are the Dalai Lama and Mother Theresa if you put them alongside Zahawi and Andrea Jenkins .
Trouble is that I am not sure a lot of the electorate care now. They seem determined to just kick Labour to death and determined to give Farage a go. It's madness I think but what do I know.
He shores up Reform but frees up the Tories to finally benefit from Labours inevitable unpopularity. The nationalist dimwits won't get it.
Who is left in the Tories? Really? Who?
The fact that has-been retreads like cleverly and Jeremy fucking hunt are seriously bruited as leaders shows their problem
They are finished, I think
And I say this with regret. I quite like Kemi b and she has definitely improved. They also once did great things. But now they are almost certainly done for
They need a sequence of unlikely events to save them. Starting with the disappearance of Farage
On a slightly different point Russia has now suffered 1.22m casualties in Ukraine. To put that into perspective it is more than 20x the casualties that the US suffered in Vietnam (58k) traumatising a nation and producing endless songs, films, books and documentaries. And this is from a significantly lower population of 144m compared with the US population of 200m in 1968. Russia continues to suffer a Vietnam of casualties every 2 months. Trump is as mad as a box of frogs but Putin is a sociopath of a completely different order.
1.22m is roughly 3x the casualties suffered by the British armed forces in the entirety of WWII. In almost every civilised country feeding that many people into a failed war would result in riots, a breakdown of order and regime change.
Rather than compare present day autocratic Russia with democratic Britain in WW2, compare with autocratic Russia in WW2. The various estimates of actual deaths in Russia's forces in Ukraine average in the ball park of 350,000 (+- 100,000 or so). In WW2 the number of dead and missing in Russian forces was more than 20x that figure. Both conflicts lasted 4 years (so far), focusing only on the substantive conflicts.
It wasn't Russian forces in WWII. It was the USSR - including Ukraine. Then, as now, losses were concentrated among the populations of the periphery of the Empire.
The more important difference is that Putin hasn't used conscription to fight the war. He's been able to attract enough "volunteers" using financial incentives and various degrees of coercion short of formal conscription. Lots of the Soviet troops deployed to Afghanistan were conscripts, and so smaller losses had a greater impact.
The dead he can take, the collapsing Russian economy he can't.
Unless oil exports come to a sudden halt (unfortunately they rebounded in December after Ukrainian damage to an oil terminal caused a fall in November) he can keep things going until the end of 2026 at least. There's a lot of ruin in a country.
There is a curious disalignment between Russia and the US on oil prices. Russia wants them as high as possible. The US wants them as low as possible.
If the Ukrainians manage to disrupt Russian oil exports (and, for what it's worth, they are likely to decline slightly in the coming months as temperatures make water injection in colder areas that bit more complicated), then they will simultaneously raise global oil prices and reduce Russian export revenue.
Yeh. Trump is f-ing desperate for 'gas' at the pump to be super low for the mid terms.
Smart of Farage to put a time limit on defections from the Tories. The dishonesty about Jenrick not previously having been sure about defecting is revolting though.
I’d like to think this is good for Kemi, but I can’t rule out that is just because I think I like her better than Farage and Jenrick
Both gentlemen are really quite unlikeable to me.
Kemi doesn't exactly feel like a textbook bestie (I met her when she was the PPC for Dulwich and she seemed cold and a bit awkward) but she's growing on me and way ahead of either of them.
Reform are desperately short of likeability. Parties need a lot of faces that at least can appear ordinarily nice and likeable. Mel Stride and Liz Kendall - picked almost at random - are the Dalai Lama and Mother Theresa if you put them alongside Zahawi and Andrea Jenkins .
All parties are very short of mo mowlams that's for sure.
Perhaps, but I would be more confident of a lot more local councillors (from all parties) defecting to Reform in the near future - particularly now that the Government has cancelled elections in 21 authorities. It gives people the chance to stick two fingers up to the Establishment, but not have to face any electoral consequences. They will be able to stand down with their status (in their own eyes) as people of principle left intact.
Robert Jenrick can attempt to rationalise it as much as he likes. The reality is if he thought it would get him closer to Downing Street he’d have been standing next to Zack Polanski this afternoon.
Comments
Ah, well. Looks like I was wrong. And he was bit too overweening for his own good if he was, indeed, planning to defect.
Certainly, a decisive strike from Kemi which may prove a helpful contrast with Sir Keir who has more than enough rivals, but isn't in a position to stamp on them.
Danger to Kemi is of destabilisation of party. My suggestion is that she should seek out a big name, trusted by the party members, to take on party chairmanship. When WIlliam Hague took over the shattered party in 1997 he brought back Cecil Parkinson as chairman. If he could be persuaded, Hague would be ideal to fill that role himself.
"Asset" is a couple of letters too much.
Kemi Badenoch: “Robert Jenrick is not my problem any more. He’s Nigel Farage’s problem now.”
Delicious
Nigel better hope the evidence doesnt embarass him
The ones in our office will collate copies and staple them for you, if you want.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inchon_(film)
"After premiering in May 1981, the film was released theatrically in the United States and Canada in September 1982, before being quickly withdrawn due to critical and financial failure. Though the film never received a home video release, it has occasionally been broadcast on television. It was the largest financial loss in film of 1982, earning less than $2 million against its lofty budget and resulting in losses of around $41 million. Reviewers at the time gave it consistently negative reviews and later commentators including Newsweek, TV Guide and The Canadian Press have classed Inchon among the worst films of all time."
Now the game is up, it’s in Farage’s interest to play it cool, to try and look as if he is control of the narrative, when the reality if that he’s just lost control of it.
Robert Jenrick's defection to be announced at imminent Reform UK press conference in a last minute change of plan for the event according to multiple reports in Westminster
Its starting to backfire badly
Anyone believing that is welcome to buy a bridge off me.
This documentary looks decent:
https://www.imdb.com/title/tt1561406/
If he has then it says all you need to know about Farage
(Although as someone not on the right I'd like her to)
It is time for truth
Hur hur hur...
I returned because the Jenrick thing is too delicious to skip. I see the consensus on here is that it’s good for Kemi. And she has played it well (if what we are told is true)
But in the longer term I note the wise remarks of @LostPassword and @Gardenwalker
1. This shows that Reform are only growing in salience. And are still colonising the right. If the Tories are reduced to wet Lib Dems what’s the point in them?
2. Jenrick is literally the only politician in the shadow cabinet who’s made ANY impact on the political scene since the election. He’s good at social media. He may be a shameless grifter but he’s canny and effective.
He’s fucked this up but as the circus settles down he will - if he moves - still be a big asset for Reform and a big loss for the Tories
They are playing the 49ers. (Those familiar with those gold miners and the environmental disasters they caused may want to back the Seahawks.)
Tie the neck of the Reform ferret-sack tight - and let the fighting commence.
I’d like to think this is good for Kemi, but I can’t rule out that is just because I think I like her better than Farage and Jenrick
If you've got a pair of boots, you're in...
(My call is that it will be getting more tricky for Farage in 2026 because to my eye the factions seems to be Balkanising.)
(Welcome back, BTW. My cousins have spent Christmas / New Year in Bangkok visiting Number One Son).
Go '9ers.
They barely sway. And then one day they come tumbling down, often far quicker than anyone expected.
The Russian government may survivie 2026 and 2027. It may survive until Putin dies of old age.
It may also collapse in March as Putin suffers an unexpected heart attack, or because the various mostly Muslim parts at Russia's southern edge notice that there isn't a lot of support from Moscow liklely to come if they revolt, or because there are fuel shortages, or because they need to implement conscription.
The reality is that we just don't know.
If they'd lost in overtime against the Rams (as they were within seconds of doing), then it would probably be the Rams year to lose.
Seems unlikely.
Unless that means none.
Now listening to Jenrick's earnest-eyes speech denouncing the Cons for all the things he was the lead protagonist in doing, or for not doing the things he did not do.
Has everyone read this little gem?
https://spectator.com/article/an-elegy-for-my-libido/
Didnt have the balls to resign.
Both gentlemen are really quite unlikeable to me.
Kemi doesn't exactly feel like a textbook bestie (I met her when she was the PPC for Dulwich and she seemed cold and a bit awkward) but she's growing on me and way ahead of either of them.
Like I said; he’s a major loss for the Tories
The centrist dorks on here simply won’t get it
This is a great day for Kemi.
If the Ukrainians manage to disrupt Russian oil exports (and, for what it's worth, they are likely to decline slightly in the coming months as temperatures make water injection in colder areas that bit more complicated), then they will simultaneously raise global oil prices and reduce Russian export revenue.
I don't think Badenoch catching Jenrick out will have any impact whatsoever on his career or on Reform's prospects. He is a shameless populist joining a party of shameless populists, that are currently wooing the electorate with their shameless populist shithousery.
The average Reform voter will not notice, let alone care, that Jenrick was pushed before he jumped.
In August he called him a fraud not to be trusted
Lol
The fact that has-been retreads like cleverly and Jeremy fucking hunt are seriously bruited as leaders shows their problem
They are finished, I think
And I say this with regret. I quite like Kemi b and she has definitely improved. They also once did great things. But now they are almost certainly done for
They need a sequence of unlikely events to save them. Starting with the disappearance of Farage
Robert Jenrick can attempt to rationalise it as much as he likes. The reality is if he thought it would get him closer to Downing Street he’d have been standing next to Zack Polanski this afternoon.