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PB Predictions Competition 2025 – The Results – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,881
edited 7:46AM in General
PB Predictions Competition 2025 – The Results – politicalbetting.com

2025’s competition proved to be a very tough year to predict, or perhaps a tough set of questions to predict against.  But look on the bright side, everybody scored some points. 

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 125,571
    edited 7:49AM
    Driver.

    I'll contact you shortly about your prize and congratulations.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 85,187
    Congratulations to all who took part.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 4,583
    Well done to everyone who entered and put their forecasts / guesses out in public. And many thanks to @Benpointer for the hard work involved. I don't enter but I enjoy all the peripheral banter. Oh, and congratulations also to those who won or did well.

    Good morning, everyone.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 85,187
    Is this true ?

    The Islamic Regime of #Iran has decided to begin mass executions of arrested protesters. Executions are set to start on Wednesday. The names of some protesters scheduled for execution have already been announced. One of them is Erfan Soltani, who is to be executed in Karaj. He was arrested on January 9 and is scheduled to be executed on January 14. He was allowed to meet his family today for the final time, for just 10 minutes.

    There are hundreds of other protesters reportedly planned for mass execution. If this regime is not overthrown, this number could rise to thousands. The regime has officially admitted to arresting more than 10,000 protesters, though the real number may be three to four times higher...
    https://x.com/BabakTaghvaee1/status/2010501062806102164
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 54,677
    A respectable 12th place for Foxy on 80., but entirely on polling predictions and cabinet exits.

    Thanks for keeping tabs @Benpointer
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 85,187
    IMO, there's no question at all.

    Hard to overstate what a remarkable statement this is from a Republican senator — even a retiring one — accusing thte Trump White House of weaponizing DOJ to control the Fed:

    "It is now the independence and credibility of the Department of Justice that are in question."
    https://x.com/kyledcheney/status/2010535528840720484
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 59,186
    Congratulations to @Driver on the win, and to @Benpointer for organising.

    Sets reminder to self, to remember to enter the competition this year!
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 8,166
    Thanks @Benpointer. Minor typo in the inflation answer.

    I shall take part next time, perhaps choosing deliberately crazy answers in an attempt to pull off a coup. The reputation lost by doing badly being small in my case!
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 33,689
    Nigelb said:

    IMO, there's no question at all.

    Hard to overstate what a remarkable statement this is from a Republican senator — even a retiring one — accusing thte Trump White House of weaponizing DOJ to control the Fed:

    "It is now the independence and credibility of the Department of Justice that are in question."
    https://x.com/kyledcheney/status/2010535528840720484

    Why shouldn't the elected Government control the reserve bank?

    Who should control it?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 125,571
    Sandpit said:

    Congratulations to @Driver on the win, and to @Benpointer for organising.

    Sets reminder to self, to remember to enter the competition this year!

    We're just finalising the questions.

    We've got some proper elections to predict in 2026.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 12,380
    Well done to the podium group!

    Really quite happy with equal 8th. Shame the ruble managed to avoid crashing.

    Big thanks to @Benpointer, and pencil sharpened for the 2026 edition!
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 18,062
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Nigelb said:

    IMO, there's no question at all.

    Hard to overstate what a remarkable statement this is from a Republican senator — even a retiring one — accusing thte Trump White House of weaponizing DOJ to control the Fed:

    "It is now the independence and credibility of the Department of Justice that are in question."
    https://x.com/kyledcheney/status/2010535528840720484

    Why shouldn't the elected Government control the reserve bank?

    Who should control it?
    If a democracy decides that the elected Govt should directly control the reserve bank, fine. But this is the US Dept of Justice charging Jerome Powell on trumped up (pun intended) charges to achieve that end. That undermines the rule of law. That is just “L'État, c'est moi”.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 36,522
    carnforth said:

    Thanks @Benpointer. Minor typo in the inflation answer.

    I shall take part next time, perhaps choosing deliberately crazy answers in an attempt to pull off a coup. The reputation lost by doing badly being small in my case!

    Yes well spotted, should be 3.0%-3.4% of course. I am the world's biggest typo factory, so an absolute liability for anything like this.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 18,062
    edited 8:07AM
    Did any of us notice that Mike Nesbitt has resigned as leader of the UUP? (12th largest party in the Commons. 5th largest party in the Lords. 4th largest party in the NI Assembly.)
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 34,662
    Nigelb said:

    Is this true ?

    The Islamic Regime of #Iran has decided to begin mass executions of arrested protesters. Executions are set to start on Wednesday. The names of some protesters scheduled for execution have already been announced. One of them is Erfan Soltani, who is to be executed in Karaj. He was arrested on January 9 and is scheduled to be executed on January 14. He was allowed to meet his family today for the final time, for just 10 minutes.

    There are hundreds of other protesters reportedly planned for mass execution. If this regime is not overthrown, this number could rise to thousands. The regime has officially admitted to arresting more than 10,000 protesters, though the real number may be three to four times higher...
    https://x.com/BabakTaghvaee1/status/2010501062806102164

    True in what sense? It could be an official statement designed both to deter protestors but also, crucially, to give the regime a bargaining counter to use with the Americans – no executions in exchange for no bombs.
  • RattersRatters Posts: 1,705
    edited 8:09AM
    bondegezou said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Nigelb said:

    IMO, there's no question at all.

    Hard to overstate what a remarkable statement this is from a Republican senator — even a retiring one — accusing thte Trump White House of weaponizing DOJ to control the Fed:

    "It is now the independence and credibility of the Department of Justice that are in question."
    https://x.com/kyledcheney/status/2010535528840720484

    Why shouldn't the elected Government control the reserve bank?

    Who should control it?
    If a democracy decides that the elected Govt should directly control the reserve bank, fine. But this is the US Dept of Justice charging Jerome Powell on trumped up (pun intended) charges to achieve that end. That undermines the rule of law. That is just “L'État, c'est moi”.
    His term as chair ends in four months. So this prosecution is purely vindictive as punishment for him standing up for the central bank setting rates independently.

    And, of course, as a warning shot to the next Fed chair.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 18,062
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    Nigelb said:

    Is this true ?

    The Islamic Regime of #Iran has decided to begin mass executions of arrested protesters. Executions are set to start on Wednesday. The names of some protesters scheduled for execution have already been announced. One of them is Erfan Soltani, who is to be executed in Karaj. He was arrested on January 9 and is scheduled to be executed on January 14. He was allowed to meet his family today for the final time, for just 10 minutes.

    There are hundreds of other protesters reportedly planned for mass execution. If this regime is not overthrown, this number could rise to thousands. The regime has officially admitted to arresting more than 10,000 protesters, though the real number may be three to four times higher...
    https://x.com/BabakTaghvaee1/status/2010501062806102164

    True in what sense? It could be an official statement designed both to deter protestors but also, crucially, to give the regime a bargaining counter to use with the Americans – no executions in exchange for no bombs.
    Trump has said Iran has been in contact to negotiate with they US, from which we can conclude… what? Trump just randomly says things these days. That may or may not be true.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,939
    edited 8:16AM
    Thanks for this, Ben, and "Ho, hum" for my predictions.

    Does anyone get the impression that there seemed to be very little reviewing of 2025 both on PB and across the wider media? If ever a year slipped into history unloved and unmarked, 2025 was it, and perhaps it is a wider malaise than simply Starmer or Trump or any one of the news stories this year.

    And yet, and this is true for most years, and is an important corollary to the go and vote / politics is vital brigade: how often does politics directly turn the course of somebody's life on here? Despite Trump, despite Labour, despite war and refugees and all, most years and last year, the effects of politics on my life were very much at the margins and I think most people can say the same. So, however mad it gets out there, remember it remains a niche and peripheral interest.

    Perhaps politics will come for me this year, and perhaps it is naive to be complacent about it, but more likely "They'll burn down the synagogues at 6 o'clock, and we'll all carry on like before".
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 18,062
    What Trump does appear to think is that he can achieve his ends primarily through bombing, without boots (remaining) on the ground. There are times when this has been true, but it’s also often been something US Presidents want to believe rather than something that they should believe.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 31,664
    Thanks Ben.

    I hope you were not distracted by all those planning forms.

    Ahem.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 36,522
    Pro_Rata said:

    Thanks for this, Ben, and "Ho, hum" for my predictions.

    Does anyone get the impression that there seemed to be very little reviewing of 2025 both on PB and across the wider media? If ever a year slipped into history unloved and unmarked, 2025 was it, and perhaps it is a wider malaise than simply Starmer or Trump or any one of the news stories this year.

    And yet, and this is true for most years, and is an important corollary to the go and vote / politics is vital brigade: how often does politics directly turn the course of somebody's life on here? Despite Trump, despite Labour, despite war and refugees and all, most years and last year, the effects of politics on my life were very much at the margins and I think most people can say the same. So, however mad it gets out there, remember it remains a niche and peripheral interest.

    Perhaps politics will come for me this year, and perhaps it is naive to be complacent about it, but more likely "They'll burn down the synagogues at 6 o'clock, and we'll all carry on like before".

    A perceptive post. I do sometimes wonder if it makes a blind bit of difference to my life which party / politicians are elected but on the macro scale I fear it does - the world feels much less safe with Trump in the White House.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 31,664
    I feel we need more grey areas in next year's scoring system.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 125,571
    Pro_Rata said:

    Thanks for this, Ben, and "Ho, hum" for my predictions.

    Does anyone get the impression that there seemed to be very little reviewing of 2025 both on PB and across the wider media? If ever a year slipped into history unloved and unmarked, 2025 was it, and perhaps it is a wider malaise than simply Starmer or Trump or any one of the news stories this year.

    And yet, and this is true for most years, and is an important corollary to the go and vote / politics is vital brigade: how often does politics directly turn the course of somebody's life on here? Despite Trump, despite Labour, despite war and refugees and all, most years and last year, the effects of politics on my life were very much at the margins and I think most people can say the same. So, however mad it gets out there, remember it remains a niche and peripheral interest.

    Perhaps politics will come for me this year, and perhaps it is naive to be complacent about it, but more likely "They'll burn down the synagogues at 6 o'clock, and we'll all carry on like before".

    I started to write a 2026 predictions thread then gave up when I realised a lot of 2026 is dependent on how the mango Mussolini behaves.

    Here's what my predictions for 2026 thread morphed into.

    This is not something the editor of political betting should admit to but am times I am losing my enthusiasm for betting on politics largely because of the mango Mussolini.

    I am not sure the old assumptions on who will win bellwether seats like Watford, Stafford, and Amber Valley will work if Donald Trump starts invading Greenland, it’ll be the end of NATO, and that will change things in UK politics that I cannot fully be comprehend.

    I expect defence spending would have to increase at the expense of public services and that will be sub-optimal for the government’s chances of re-election but I can also see Nigel Farage and Reform taking a hit for being so close to Donald Trump.

    https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2026/01/07/its-not-easy-being-greenland/
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 85,187
    The Trump administration is not easily distinguishable from a Mafia family.

    Q: "Do you believe that deadly force was necessary?"

    Trump: "It was highly disrespectful of law enforcement. The woman and her friend were highly disrespectful of law enforcement…Law enforcement should not be in a position where they have to put up with this stuff."
    https://x.com/BulwarkOnline/status/2010534110117433501
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 46,248
    On the news of the UK paying compensation due to complicity with CIA torture, a grim and insightful read. Lots of good and witty lines, ‘I was tortured by idiots’ being one of the best; we’re now in a world where we’re tortured, policed, shot in the face and governed by idiots. Also this vile torture is being inflicted on the prisoners of so called liberal democracies, not just by the bad guys.

    https://x.com/elizrael/status/2010407553948356796?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 36,522
    MattW said:

    Thanks Ben.

    I hope you were not distracted by all those planning forms.

    Ahem.

    Planning seems a distant memory Matt, although we do have to satisfy the sign-off conditions at some point. It was an annoyingly slow and expensive process but in the end we got the plans through without compromise.

    Anyway I seem to be muddling my forums up now.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 63,389
    Many thanks to Mr. Pointer, and congrats to Mr. Driver for his glorious triumph. Huge margin of victory.

    I was middle of the pack, but given the calibre of competitors that's not so bad.

    Good morning, everyone.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 41,521
    The Mad King declared himself acting President of Venezuela overnight

    He also said that disrespecting law enforcement justifies execution

    It's not clear how much longer the US can tolerate this
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 18,062
    Benpointer said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Thanks for this, Ben, and "Ho, hum" for my predictions.

    Does anyone get the impression that there seemed to be very little reviewing of 2025 both on PB and across the wider media? If ever a year slipped into history unloved and unmarked, 2025 was it, and perhaps it is a wider malaise than simply Starmer or Trump or any one of the news stories this year.

    And yet, and this is true for most years, and is an important corollary to the go and vote / politics is vital brigade: how often does politics directly turn the course of somebody's life on here? Despite Trump, despite Labour, despite war and refugees and all, most years and last year, the effects of politics on my life were very much at the margins and I think most people can say the same. So, however mad it gets out there, remember it remains a niche and peripheral interest.

    Perhaps politics will come for me this year, and perhaps it is naive to be complacent about it, but more likely "They'll burn down the synagogues at 6 o'clock, and we'll all carry on like before".

    A perceptive post. I do sometimes wonder if it makes a blind bit of difference to my life which party / politicians are elected but on the macro scale I fear it does - the world feels much less safe with Trump in the White House.
    Indeed. To echo TSE’s comments, I think a US invasion of Greenland would have a huge impact on all of us in the UK.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 18,062
    Scott_xP said:

    The Mad King declared himself acting President of Venezuela overnight

    He also said that disrespecting law enforcement justifies execution

    It's not clear how much longer the US can tolerate this

    The US media so far don’t seem to have pushed back much on his claims to be in charge of Venezuela. Will the public notice that Venezuela is still largely doing what Venezuela wants?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 59,186
    Rumours that Iranian authorities have bought from China powerful radio transmitter weapons to block signals from satellite phones and Starlink terminals, that protestors were using to get news out of the country.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 7,800
    Scott_xP said:

    The Mad King declared himself acting President of Venezuela overnight

    He also said that disrespecting law enforcement justifies execution

    It's not clear how much longer the US can tolerate this

    Probably another three years, rinse and repeat
  • TazTaz Posts: 23,905
    Another vote of thanks for @Benpointer for taking the time to do this,
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 41,521
    JohnLilburne said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The Mad King declared himself acting President of Venezuela overnight

    He also said that disrespecting law enforcement justifies execution

    It's not clear how much longer the US can tolerate this

    Probably another three years, rinse and repeat
    It's not sustainable for another 3 years
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 36,522
    bondegezou said:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cwy8gpvdd1go

    London homicides at 11-year low, Met Police says

    “Homicide in London has fallen to its lowest level in more than a decade, new figures released by the Metropolitan Police show.

    “The force said 97 homicides were recorded in 2025, the lowest figure since 2014, at a rate of 1.1 per 100,000 people, lower than New York (2.8), Berlin (3.2) and Milan (1.6).”

    Go Sadiq!

    Shhh - don't tell Vance.
  • TazTaz Posts: 23,905
    Just seen Jerome Powells dignified response to the DOJ threats.

    Who is advising Trump ? This is nuts. The fed have been slow to respond to the threat of inflation but if Trump thinks the US economy needs 1% interest rates then inflation is coming back.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 4,583
    Pro_Rata said:

    Thanks for this, Ben, and "Ho, hum" for my predictions.

    Does anyone get the impression that there seemed to be very little reviewing of 2025 both on PB and across the wider media? If ever a year slipped into history unloved and unmarked, 2025 was it, and perhaps it is a wider malaise than simply Starmer or Trump or any one of the news stories this year.

    And yet, and this is true for most years, and is an important corollary to the go and vote / politics is vital brigade: how often does politics directly turn the course of somebody's life on here? Despite Trump, despite Labour, despite war and refugees and all, most years and last year, the effects of politics on my life were very much at the margins and I think most people can say the same. So, however mad it gets out there, remember it remains a niche and peripheral interest.

    Perhaps politics will come for me this year, and perhaps it is naive to be complacent about it, but more likely "They'll burn down the synagogues at 6 o'clock, and we'll all carry on like before".

    Possibly the impact of politics isn't always felt immediately, as it may be when income tax is raised. My life has been very much affected by slower political impacts: the burden of H&S and Safeguarding legislation on small charities, for example; the gradual freeze on expressing one's opinion publicly, for another. All very good intentions behind such legislation but the cumulative effect does make me want to crawl into a hole and stop engaging.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 53,813
    bondegezou said:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cwy8gpvdd1go

    London homicides at 11-year low, Met Police says

    “Homicide in London has fallen to its lowest level in more than a decade, new figures released by the Metropolitan Police show.

    “The force said 97 homicides were recorded in 2025, the lowest figure since 2014, at a rate of 1.1 per 100,000 people, lower than New York (2.8), Berlin (3.2) and Milan (1.6).”

    Go Sadiq!

    The criminals can't afford to live there any more?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 59,883
    Scott_xP said:

    The Mad King declared himself acting President of Venezuela overnight

    He also said that disrespecting law enforcement justifies execution

    It's not clear how much longer the US can tolerate this

    It seems clear that the politicians in both parties can’t quite see a way to oppose him, let alone remove him. With a few honourable exceptions among the Democrats.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 41,521
    Malmesbury said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The Mad King declared himself acting President of Venezuela overnight

    He also said that disrespecting law enforcement justifies execution

    It's not clear how much longer the US can tolerate this

    It seems clear that the politicians in both parties can’t quite see a way to oppose him, let alone remove him. With a few honourable exceptions among the Democrats.
    There are plenty of way to do it, but most of the people who could act are still too frightened, or don't want to for some reason. I don't believe that status quo is sustainable.
  • eekeek Posts: 32,256
    Theuniondivvie said:

    On the news of the UK paying compensation due to complicity with CIA torture, a grim and insightful read. Lots of good and witty lines, ‘I was tortured by idiots’ being one of the best; we’re now in a world where we’re tortured, policed, shot in the face and governed by idiots. Also this vile torture is being inflicted on the prisoners of so called liberal democracies, not just by the bad guys.

    https://x.com/elizrael/status/2010407553948356796?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q

    I read it very much as it being easier to just let things continue as they were (he was in Guantanamo where the US were torturing people) rather than doing the correct thing.

    And that's the current issue with politics outside Trump, politicians are just letting things continue as before rather than fixing things. Which is why Starmer is doing so badly, he has no vision so things are just continuing to slowly deteriorating .
  • TazTaz Posts: 23,905
    Nigelb said:

    IMO, there's no question at all.

    Hard to overstate what a remarkable statement this is from a Republican senator — even a retiring one — accusing thte Trump White House of weaponizing DOJ to control the Fed:

    "It is now the independence and credibility of the Department of Justice that are in question."
    https://x.com/kyledcheney/status/2010535528840720484

    He’s not wrong.

    Jerome Powell made a very dignified statement.

    It’s not the first time either. He did it with Lisa Cooke.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 18,062
    IanB2 said:

    bondegezou said:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cwy8gpvdd1go

    London homicides at 11-year low, Met Police says

    “Homicide in London has fallen to its lowest level in more than a decade, new figures released by the Metropolitan Police show.

    “The force said 97 homicides were recorded in 2025, the lowest figure since 2014, at a rate of 1.1 per 100,000 people, lower than New York (2.8), Berlin (3.2) and Milan (1.6).”

    Go Sadiq!

    The criminals can't afford to live there any more?
    A good hypothesis, but you wouldn’t think they could afford to live in New York or Berlin either!
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 17,571
    Congratulations @Driver for the fantastic result and many thanks to Ben for putting together the competition. I am reasonably happy to be in the top half of the table although as someone who forecasts things for a living perhaps I should have done better...
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 13,111
    IanB2 said:

    bondegezou said:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cwy8gpvdd1go

    London homicides at 11-year low, Met Police says

    “Homicide in London has fallen to its lowest level in more than a decade, new figures released by the Metropolitan Police show.

    “The force said 97 homicides were recorded in 2025, the lowest figure since 2014, at a rate of 1.1 per 100,000 people, lower than New York (2.8), Berlin (3.2) and Milan (1.6).”

    Go Sadiq!

    The criminals can't afford to live there any more?
    Heh - you do sometimes here that from people upset about gentrification. It's as if they preferred it when the area around me was a violent, heroin riddled cesspit.

    Sell your flat for £250k and move to Fife/Essex if it concerns you that much.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 12,138
    Scott_xP said:

    The Mad King declared himself acting President of Venezuela overnight

    Again? He forgot that he had abdicated?
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 18,062
    Chris said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The Mad King declared himself acting President of Venezuela overnight

    Again? He forgot that he had abdicated?
    He’s probably forgotten or was never aware that Rubio and Johnson carefully went around explaining how this isn’t true a few days ago. They must know that’s he’s increasingly out of control, but what are they going to do about it?
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 13,111
    edited 8:52AM
    Taz said:

    Nigelb said:

    IMO, there's no question at all.

    Hard to overstate what a remarkable statement this is from a Republican senator — even a retiring one — accusing thte Trump White House of weaponizing DOJ to control the Fed:

    "It is now the independence and credibility of the Department of Justice that are in question."
    https://x.com/kyledcheney/status/2010535528840720484

    He’s not wrong.

    Jerome Powell made a very dignified statement.

    It’s not the first time either. He did it with Lisa Cooke.
    "It is now" - where has this guy been for the last year? That's the problem with sitting silent when it's your political opponents being subjugated - eventually the regime will come for your friends too.

    JPOW is the darling of the very-online-finance-bro. Will be interesting if there is something of a schism or, as usual, everyone comes into line with Trump.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 4,583
    IanB2 said:

    bondegezou said:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cwy8gpvdd1go

    London homicides at 11-year low, Met Police says

    “Homicide in London has fallen to its lowest level in more than a decade, new figures released by the Metropolitan Police show.

    “The force said 97 homicides were recorded in 2025, the lowest figure since 2014, at a rate of 1.1 per 100,000 people, lower than New York (2.8), Berlin (3.2) and Milan (1.6).”

    Go Sadiq!

    The criminals can't afford to live there any more?
    That sort of criminal can't afford to live there.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 16,241
    edited 8:56AM
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Nigelb said:

    IMO, there's no question at all.

    Hard to overstate what a remarkable statement this is from a Republican senator — even a retiring one — accusing thte Trump White House of weaponizing DOJ to control the Fed:

    "It is now the independence and credibility of the Department of Justice that are in question."
    https://x.com/kyledcheney/status/2010535528840720484

    Why shouldn't the elected Government control the reserve bank?

    Who should control it?
    That question can't be taken in isolation as it is part of the large question of the separation of powers. While the big and obvious elements of this are: executive, legislator and judiciary within this are a whole load of particular cases.

    An obvious example is the Boundary Commission. It is quite possible to sort the electoral process through the pork barrel of party, as in the USA. But it obvious to us, as it is not obvious to the USA , that this needs to be done at arm's length. Government/parliament set the rules, the commission researches and recommends and so on. No-one in the UK would trust party politics to get this right. I should think the same is true of many functions of the Bank of England including the setting of interest rates.

    The question of 'quis custodiet' will of course arise, but that is just a logical difficult in any sort of structure designed to have powers outside the immediate control of a unitary government. Custom and convention sorts most of it; until of course it doesn't. (See USA passim)

  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,845
    Nigelb said:

    Congratulations to all who took part.

    And thanks to most of them for doing as badly as me!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 85,187
    Taz said:

    Just seen Jerome Powells dignified response to the DOJ threats.

    Who is advising Trump ? This is nuts. The fed have been slow to respond to the threat of inflation but if Trump thinks the US economy needs 1% interest rates then inflation is coming back.

    Why do you think anyone is advising him on this ?

    And even if you do, have you watched recent interviews with Bessent and Hassett ?
  • theProletheProle Posts: 1,650
    That's really annoying. When I supplied my answers, I did it just with the question numbers, and looking back at my entries I evidently got the order transposed between Ref and LD for the polling questions.

    With my intended answers, rather than the ones filed, I had:
    Highest share:
    Ref - 33%(10pts),
    LD - 16% (10pts) ,
    Lowest share:
    Ref - 22% (10pts),
    LD - 10% (20pts),

    Adding those 50pts to the 70pts I got by other means would have got me 120pts and propelled me to 3rd place.

    Oh well, c'est la vie... My new years resolution should clearly be to read the questions properly.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 57,302
    Pro_Rata said:

    Thanks for this, Ben, and "Ho, hum" for my predictions.

    Does anyone get the impression that there seemed to be very little reviewing of 2025 both on PB and across the wider media? If ever a year slipped into history unloved and unmarked, 2025 was it, and perhaps it is a wider malaise than simply Starmer or Trump or any one of the news stories this year.

    And yet, and this is true for most years, and is an important corollary to the go and vote / politics is vital brigade: how often does politics directly turn the course of somebody's life on here? Despite Trump, despite Labour, despite war and refugees and all, most years and last year, the effects of politics on my life were very much at the margins and I think most people can say the same. So, however mad it gets out there, remember it remains a niche and peripheral interest.

    Perhaps politics will come for me this year, and perhaps it is naive to be complacent about it, but more likely "They'll burn down the synagogues at 6 o'clock, and we'll all carry on like before".

    Nice Del Amitri reference.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 18,923
    Thanks very much for organising the competition, @Benpointer. Congratulations to @Driver and @Sunil_Prasannan. You learn things when making predictions. I didn't realise just how volatile polls are - the highs are high versus the lows. Really wasn't expecting the high US growth rate given Trump's likely shenanigans, seems to have been the AI boom that did it. The ruble strengthened remarkably, although I understand this is largely a political statement - no-one's actually buying it.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 21,202
    AnneJGP said:

    IanB2 said:

    bondegezou said:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cwy8gpvdd1go

    London homicides at 11-year low, Met Police says

    “Homicide in London has fallen to its lowest level in more than a decade, new figures released by the Metropolitan Police show.

    “The force said 97 homicides were recorded in 2025, the lowest figure since 2014, at a rate of 1.1 per 100,000 people, lower than New York (2.8), Berlin (3.2) and Milan (1.6).”

    Go Sadiq!

    The criminals can't afford to live there any more?
    That sort of criminal can't afford to live there.
    They can commute, like the rest of us.
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 2,238
    bondegezou said:

    Chris said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The Mad King declared himself acting President of Venezuela overnight

    Again? He forgot that he had abdicated?
    He’s probably forgotten or was never aware that Rubio and Johnson carefully went around explaining how this isn’t true a few days ago. They must know that’s he’s increasingly out of control, but what are they going to do about it?
    A 2026 question about when the 25th will be used?
  • FossFoss Posts: 2,229
    edited 9:06AM
    Joint 12th isn't a bad score....

    Thank you to everyone who helped run this!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 132,874
    bondegezou said:

    Benpointer said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Thanks for this, Ben, and "Ho, hum" for my predictions.

    Does anyone get the impression that there seemed to be very little reviewing of 2025 both on PB and across the wider media? If ever a year slipped into history unloved and unmarked, 2025 was it, and perhaps it is a wider malaise than simply Starmer or Trump or any one of the news stories this year.

    And yet, and this is true for most years, and is an important corollary to the go and vote / politics is vital brigade: how often does politics directly turn the course of somebody's life on here? Despite Trump, despite Labour, despite war and refugees and all, most years and last year, the effects of politics on my life were very much at the margins and I think most people can say the same. So, however mad it gets out there, remember it remains a niche and peripheral interest.

    Perhaps politics will come for me this year, and perhaps it is naive to be complacent about it, but more likely "They'll burn down the synagogues at 6 o'clock, and we'll all carry on like before".

    A perceptive post. I do sometimes wonder if it makes a blind bit of difference to my life which party / politicians are elected but on the macro scale I fear it does - the world feels much less safe with Trump in the White House.
    Indeed. To echo TSE’s comments, I think a US invasion of Greenland would have a huge impact on all of us in the UK.
    73% of Americans oppose invading Greenland, just 8% in favour, even a majority of Republican voters are opposed. It is not happening.

    A purchase offer is more likely but still only 28% in favour

    https://www.stripes.com/theaters/europe/2026-01-08/greenland-military-poll-20339489.html
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 2,238
    AnneJGP said:

    IanB2 said:

    bondegezou said:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cwy8gpvdd1go

    London homicides at 11-year low, Met Police says

    “Homicide in London has fallen to its lowest level in more than a decade, new figures released by the Metropolitan Police show.

    “The force said 97 homicides were recorded in 2025, the lowest figure since 2014, at a rate of 1.1 per 100,000 people, lower than New York (2.8), Berlin (3.2) and Milan (1.6).”

    Go Sadiq!

    The criminals can't afford to live there any more?
    That sort of criminal can't afford to live there.
    Have an acquaintance who lives in St Georges Hill in Weybridge. Moved there a couple of years ago when the PE venture he ran paid out (thanks Biden). Lots of vacant property there when the Russians moved out. Apparently 25% of the homes there were Russian owned at one point. With the Russians gone, the Albanian mafia are apparently raiding properties where the people are still living there which begs the question. 1) Would you buy a property from a Russian oligarch and 2) why do the the Albanians think the area is fair game at the moment.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 53,813
    bondegezou said:

    IanB2 said:

    bondegezou said:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cwy8gpvdd1go

    London homicides at 11-year low, Met Police says

    “Homicide in London has fallen to its lowest level in more than a decade, new figures released by the Metropolitan Police show.

    “The force said 97 homicides were recorded in 2025, the lowest figure since 2014, at a rate of 1.1 per 100,000 people, lower than New York (2.8), Berlin (3.2) and Milan (1.6).”

    Go Sadiq!

    The criminals can't afford to live there any more?
    A good hypothesis, but you wouldn’t think they could afford to live in New York or Berlin either!
    And, funnily enough, crime has been falling significantly in New York, but not in Berlin.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 132,874
    bondegezou said:

    Did any of us notice that Mike Nesbitt has resigned as leader of the UUP? (12th largest party in the Commons. 5th largest party in the Lords. 4th largest party in the NI Assembly.)

    Former senior PSNI officer Jon Burrows first to announce his candidacy to succeed Nesbitt

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cvg5d663l94o
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 59,883
    Scott_xP said:

    Malmesbury said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The Mad King declared himself acting President of Venezuela overnight

    He also said that disrespecting law enforcement justifies execution

    It's not clear how much longer the US can tolerate this

    It seems clear that the politicians in both parties can’t quite see a way to oppose him, let alone remove him. With a few honourable exceptions among the Democrats.
    There are plenty of way to do it, but most of the people who could act are still too frightened, or don't want to for some reason. I don't believe that status quo is sustainable.
    Yes - it is perfectly possible to remove him.

    The problem is that only a slack handful of the required people (all Democrats) are doing much actual opposition. Let alone getting rid of him.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 132,874
    edited 9:16AM
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sandpit said:

    Congratulations to @Driver on the win, and to @Benpointer for organising.

    Sets reminder to self, to remember to enter the competition this year!

    We're just finalising the questions.

    We've got some proper elections to predict in 2026.
    There were national elections in Germany, the Netherlands, Canada and Australia last year and the Polish presidential election and the mid terms in Argentina. In the UK we had the English county council elections and a few unitary council elections.

    This year the only major national elections are the US midterms and the New Zealand and Brazilian elections and Russian legislative elections. Though more elections in the UK in London, Scotland, Wales, big English cities and delayed English county elections and some unitary councils
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 34,662
    bondegezou said:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cwy8gpvdd1go

    London homicides at 11-year low, Met Police says

    “Homicide in London has fallen to its lowest level in more than a decade, new figures released by the Metropolitan Police show.

    “The force said 97 homicides were recorded in 2025, the lowest figure since 2014, at a rate of 1.1 per 100,000 people, lower than New York (2.8), Berlin (3.2) and Milan (1.6).”

    Go Sadiq!

    Every columnist from the Times up to the Knappers Gazette will be tapping out their favoured theory to explain London's falling murder rate, and there are so many to choose from – statistical noise; less air pollution; Albanian takeover of the drugs trade from machete-wielding postcode gangs; restrictions on knife sales; stop and search; face recognition cameras; no doubt even Brexit.

    Of course the real reason is that Keir Starmer forced all schools to show Adolescence.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 21,202
    HYUFD said:

    bondegezou said:

    Benpointer said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Thanks for this, Ben, and "Ho, hum" for my predictions.

    Does anyone get the impression that there seemed to be very little reviewing of 2025 both on PB and across the wider media? If ever a year slipped into history unloved and unmarked, 2025 was it, and perhaps it is a wider malaise than simply Starmer or Trump or any one of the news stories this year.

    And yet, and this is true for most years, and is an important corollary to the go and vote / politics is vital brigade: how often does politics directly turn the course of somebody's life on here? Despite Trump, despite Labour, despite war and refugees and all, most years and last year, the effects of politics on my life were very much at the margins and I think most people can say the same. So, however mad it gets out there, remember it remains a niche and peripheral interest.

    Perhaps politics will come for me this year, and perhaps it is naive to be complacent about it, but more likely "They'll burn down the synagogues at 6 o'clock, and we'll all carry on like before".

    A perceptive post. I do sometimes wonder if it makes a blind bit of difference to my life which party / politicians are elected but on the macro scale I fear it does - the world feels much less safe with Trump in the White House.
    Indeed. To echo TSE’s comments, I think a US invasion of Greenland would have a huge impact on all of us in the UK.
    73% of Americans oppose invading Greenland, just 8% in favour, even a majority of Republican voters are opposed. It is not happening.

    A purchase offer is more likely but still only 28% in favour

    https://www.stripes.com/theaters/europe/2026-01-08/greenland-military-poll-20339489.html
    Like a lot of things in the American democracy/opposition to Trump category, the views of the American public only matter if they matter.

    Is there any sign at all that they do? In the Good Place, "congressmen and senators want to be re-elected" is a good answer, but it's not obvious that we are in the Good Place.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 36,365
    HYUFD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sandpit said:

    Congratulations to @Driver on the win, and to @Benpointer for organising.

    Sets reminder to self, to remember to enter the competition this year!

    We're just finalising the questions.

    We've got some proper elections to predict in 2026.
    There were national elections in Germany, Canada and Australia last year.

    This year the only major national elections are the US midterms and the New Zealand election
    Q1. Will the 2026 US midterms be free and fair? A1 Yes 0 :No 10 points.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 57,157
    IanB2 said:

    bondegezou said:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cwy8gpvdd1go

    London homicides at 11-year low, Met Police says

    “Homicide in London has fallen to its lowest level in more than a decade, new figures released by the Metropolitan Police show.

    “The force said 97 homicides were recorded in 2025, the lowest figure since 2014, at a rate of 1.1 per 100,000 people, lower than New York (2.8), Berlin (3.2) and Milan (1.6).”

    Go Sadiq!

    The criminals can't afford to live there any more?
    Or the people who would be murder victims have been killed? Turf wars have run their course, boundaries are settled...
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 57,157
    Wordle in 2 today. Not sure how anybody got it in 2 yesterday!
  • stodgestodge Posts: 15,864
    Pro_Rata said:

    Thanks for this, Ben, and "Ho, hum" for my predictions.

    Does anyone get the impression that there seemed to be very little reviewing of 2025 both on PB and across the wider media? If ever a year slipped into history unloved and unmarked, 2025 was it, and perhaps it is a wider malaise than simply Starmer or Trump or any one of the news stories this year.

    And yet, and this is true for most years, and is an important corollary to the go and vote / politics is vital brigade: how often does politics directly turn the course of somebody's life on here? Despite Trump, despite Labour, despite war and refugees and all, most years and last year, the effects of politics on my life were very much at the margins and I think most people can say the same. So, however mad it gets out there, remember it remains a niche and peripheral interest.

    Perhaps politics will come for me this year, and perhaps it is naive to be complacent about it, but more likely "They'll burn down the synagogues at 6 o'clock, and we'll all carry on like before".

    A really interesting post, for which many thanks.

    2024 was always going to be a hard act to follow for this site - having both a UK General Election and a US Presidential election in the same year is basically two trips to the buffet on the same day and it's fair to say many on here didn't like either result. A world with Sunak as Prime Minister and Harris as President would be a very different place, you'd imagine.

    As to the day-to-day impact of politics, what happens locally affects me more than what happens nationally in the short term (the longer term is different). We have in 2026 local elections here in London and that will have an impact even though I imagine barely a third of those who can vote will vote.

    We are all political or politics enthusiasts - we wouldn't be here otherwise. Sometimes, we like to see change before it manifests more broadly and spot trends before they become obvious -the betting part of the site plays to that.

    We all have our agendas, our teams and our flags and the debates/arguments reflect those. Too often we revisit old battles simply because we can but as the annual prediction contest shows, trying to read the runes of the future - well, I'd have more chance of going through the card at Lingfield this afternoon.
  • theProletheProle Posts: 1,650
    MarqueeMark said:

    IanB2 said:

    bondegezou said:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cwy8gpvdd1go

    London homicides at 11-year low, Met Police says

    “Homicide in London has fallen to its lowest level in more than a decade, new figures released by the Metropolitan Police show.

    “The force said 97 homicides were recorded in 2025, the lowest figure since 2014, at a rate of 1.1 per 100,000 people, lower than New York (2.8), Berlin (3.2) and Milan (1.6).”

    Go Sadiq!

    The criminals can't afford to live there any more?
    Or the people who would be murder victims have been killed? Turf wars have run their course, boundaries are settled...
    Doesn't every passing generation provide more potential victim however?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 132,874
    HYUFD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sandpit said:

    Congratulations to @Driver on the win, and to @Benpointer for organising.

    Sets reminder to self, to remember to enter the competition this year!

    We're just finalising the questions.

    We've got some proper elections to predict in 2026.
    There were national elections in Germany, the Netherlands, Canada and Australia last year and the Polish presidential election and the mid terms in Argentina. In the UK we had the English county council elections and a few unitary council elections.

    This year the only major national elections are the US midterms and the New Zealand and Brazilian elections and Russian legislative elections. Though more elections in the UK in London, Scotland, Wales, big English cities and delayed English county elections and some unitary councils
    The Swedish and Danish elections are also due this year, so two more to add.

    The Irish presidential election was last year too of course as was the Norwegian election
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 132,874
    Mexicanpete said:

    HYUFD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sandpit said:

    Congratulations to @Driver on the win, and to @Benpointer for organising.

    Sets reminder to self, to remember to enter the competition this year!

    We're just finalising the questions.

    We've got some proper elections to predict in 2026.
    There were national elections in Germany, Canada and Australia last year.

    This year the only major national elections are the US midterms and the New Zealand election
    Q1. Will the 2026 US midterms be free and fair? A1 Yes 0 :No 10 points.
    They probably will overall, it is state governments that run them not the Federal government anyway
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 45,680
    edited 9:20AM
    IanB2 said:

    theProle said:

    That's really annoying. When I supplied my answers, I did it just with the question numbers, and looking back at my entries I evidently got the order transposed between Ref and LD for the polling questions.

    With my intended answers, rather than the ones filed, I had:
    Highest share:
    Ref - 33%(10pts),
    LD - 16% (10pts) ,
    Lowest share:
    Ref - 22% (10pts),
    LD - 10% (20pts),

    Adding those 50pts to the 70pts I got by other means would have got me 120pts and propelled me to 3rd place.

    Oh well, c'est la vie... My new years resolution should clearly be to read the questions properly.

    Putting in the wrong answers was where I went wrong, too!
    I mixed most of mine up or else I would not have been joint 49th I would have won by a mile
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 132,874
    edited 9:22AM
    Stuartinromford said:

    HYUFD said:

    bondegezou said:

    Benpointer said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Thanks for this, Ben, and "Ho, hum" for my predictions.

    Does anyone get the impression that there seemed to be very little reviewing of 2025 both on PB and across the wider media? If ever a year slipped into history unloved and unmarked, 2025 was it, and perhaps it is a wider malaise than simply Starmer or Trump or any one of the news stories this year.

    And yet, and this is true for most years, and is an important corollary to the go and vote / politics is vital brigade: how often does politics directly turn the course of somebody's life on here? Despite Trump, despite Labour, despite war and refugees and all, most years and last year, the effects of politics on my life were very much at the margins and I think most people can say the same. So, however mad it gets out there, remember it remains a niche and peripheral interest.

    Perhaps politics will come for me this year, and perhaps it is naive to be complacent about it, but more likely "They'll burn down the synagogues at 6 o'clock, and we'll all carry on like before".

    A perceptive post. I do sometimes wonder if it makes a blind bit of difference to my life which party / politicians are elected but on the macro scale I fear it does - the world feels much less safe with Trump in the White House.
    Indeed. To echo TSE’s comments, I think a US invasion of Greenland would have a huge impact on all of us in the UK.
    73% of Americans oppose invading Greenland, just 8% in favour, even a majority of Republican voters are opposed. It is not happening.

    A purchase offer is more likely but still only 28% in favour

    https://www.stripes.com/theaters/europe/2026-01-08/greenland-military-poll-20339489.html
    Like a lot of things in the American democracy/opposition to Trump category, the views of the American public only matter if they matter.

    Is there any sign at all that they do? In the Good Place, "congressmen and senators want to be re-elected" is a good answer, but it's not obvious that we are in the Good Place.
    73% opposition is enough to ensure even Congress impeaches and convicts Trump if he invaded Greenland (which he won't). The fact less than half of even Republican voters back such an invasion means most Republican Senators would vote to convict Trump rather than face losing their seats in that eventuality, which is again why Trump won't.

    He will try and buy Greenland which over half of Republicans at least back but that is it
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,845
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    bondegezou said:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cwy8gpvdd1go

    London homicides at 11-year low, Met Police says

    “Homicide in London has fallen to its lowest level in more than a decade, new figures released by the Metropolitan Police show.

    “The force said 97 homicides were recorded in 2025, the lowest figure since 2014, at a rate of 1.1 per 100,000 people, lower than New York (2.8), Berlin (3.2) and Milan (1.6).”

    Go Sadiq!

    Every columnist from the Times up to the Knappers Gazette will be tapping out their favoured theory to explain London's falling murder rate, and there are so many to choose from – statistical noise; less air pollution; Albanian takeover of the drugs trade from machete-wielding postcode gangs; restrictions on knife sales; stop and search; face recognition cameras; no doubt even Brexit.

    Of course the real reason is that Keir Starmer forced all schools to show Adolescence.
    You forgot Britain's productivity crisis. Murderers spending too much time on social media these days :disappointed:
  • MelonBMelonB Posts: 16,669
    Selebian said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    bondegezou said:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cwy8gpvdd1go

    London homicides at 11-year low, Met Police says

    “Homicide in London has fallen to its lowest level in more than a decade, new figures released by the Metropolitan Police show.

    “The force said 97 homicides were recorded in 2025, the lowest figure since 2014, at a rate of 1.1 per 100,000 people, lower than New York (2.8), Berlin (3.2) and Milan (1.6).”

    Go Sadiq!

    Every columnist from the Times up to the Knappers Gazette will be tapping out their favoured theory to explain London's falling murder rate, and there are so many to choose from – statistical noise; less air pollution; Albanian takeover of the drugs trade from machete-wielding postcode gangs; restrictions on knife sales; stop and search; face recognition cameras; no doubt even Brexit.

    Of course the real reason is that Keir Starmer forced all schools to show Adolescence.
    You forgot Britain's productivity crisis. Murderers spending too much time on social media these days :disappointed:
    Fewer bored teenagers hanging around on street corners if they’re all in their bedrooms playing Roblox.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 57,157
    theProle said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    IanB2 said:

    bondegezou said:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cwy8gpvdd1go

    London homicides at 11-year low, Met Police says

    “Homicide in London has fallen to its lowest level in more than a decade, new figures released by the Metropolitan Police show.

    “The force said 97 homicides were recorded in 2025, the lowest figure since 2014, at a rate of 1.1 per 100,000 people, lower than New York (2.8), Berlin (3.2) and Milan (1.6).”

    Go Sadiq!

    The criminals can't afford to live there any more?
    Or the people who would be murder victims have been killed? Turf wars have run their course, boundaries are settled...
    Doesn't every passing generation provide more potential victim however?
    Maybe the new generation just lacks ambition? It's a result of Covid...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 132,874
    edited 9:32AM
    stodge said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Thanks for this, Ben, and "Ho, hum" for my predictions.

    Does anyone get the impression that there seemed to be very little reviewing of 2025 both on PB and across the wider media? If ever a year slipped into history unloved and unmarked, 2025 was it, and perhaps it is a wider malaise than simply Starmer or Trump or any one of the news stories this year.

    And yet, and this is true for most years, and is an important corollary to the go and vote / politics is vital brigade: how often does politics directly turn the course of somebody's life on here? Despite Trump, despite Labour, despite war and refugees and all, most years and last year, the effects of politics on my life were very much at the margins and I think most people can say the same. So, however mad it gets out there, remember it remains a niche and peripheral interest.

    Perhaps politics will come for me this year, and perhaps it is naive to be complacent about it, but more likely "They'll burn down the synagogues at 6 o'clock, and we'll all carry on like before".

    A really interesting post, for which many thanks.

    2024 was always going to be a hard act to follow for this site - having both a UK General Election and a US Presidential election in the same year is basically two trips to the buffet on the same day and it's fair to say many on here didn't like either result. A world with Sunak as Prime Minister and Harris as President would be a very different place, you'd imagine.

    As to the day-to-day impact of politics, what happens locally affects me more than what happens nationally in the short term (the longer term is different). We have in 2026 local elections here in London and that will have an impact even though I imagine barely a third of those who can vote will vote.

    We are all political or politics enthusiasts - we wouldn't be here otherwise. Sometimes, we like to see change before it manifests more broadly and spot trends before they become obvious -the betting part of the site plays to that.

    We all have our agendas, our teams and our flags and the debates/arguments reflect those. Too often we revisit old battles simply because we can but as the annual prediction contest shows, trying to read the runes of the future - well, I'd have more chance of going through the card at Lingfield this afternoon.
    A world with Sunak as PM still and Harris as US President would have been better for Ukraine, better for the UK economy and business owners, wealthy pensioners and property owners and farmers, better for woke in the US, worse for Putin and Netanyahu, worse for UK train drivers and GPs and those claiming lots of welfare and better for the global free market which would still be largely tariff free and better for tackling climate change. It would have been good for trans in the US, not so good for trans in the UK.

    It would also have been a better world for those who like slick and articulate leaders, which Sunak and Harris were clearly more than Starmer and Trump. Most of the white working class and lower middle class in both nations though clearly rejected Sunak and Harris for what they thought would be straightforward common sense with Starmer and Trump
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 59,883
    edited 9:29AM
    A
    Selebian said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    bondegezou said:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cwy8gpvdd1go

    London homicides at 11-year low, Met Police says

    “Homicide in London has fallen to its lowest level in more than a decade, new figures released by the Metropolitan Police show.

    “The force said 97 homicides were recorded in 2025, the lowest figure since 2014, at a rate of 1.1 per 100,000 people, lower than New York (2.8), Berlin (3.2) and Milan (1.6).”

    Go Sadiq!

    Every columnist from the Times up to the Knappers Gazette will be tapping out their favoured theory to explain London's falling murder rate, and there are so many to choose from – statistical noise; less air pollution; Albanian takeover of the drugs trade from machete-wielding postcode gangs; restrictions on knife sales; stop and search; face recognition cameras; no doubt even Brexit.

    Of course the real reason is that Keir Starmer forced all schools to show Adolescence.
    You forgot Britain's productivity crisis. Murderers spending too much time on social media these days :disappointed:
    In order to commit a murder, you need to fill out 17 separate, contradictory forms. That require paid, professional assistance to navigate. Murder is simply too complex and expensive.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 53,813
    FPT
    IanB2 said:

    rottenborough said:

    Grab your popcorn kids...



    megan kenyon
    @meganekenyon

    New: A new group - Grassroots Left - has launched a slate of candidates ahead of Your Party’s central executive committee elections. The slate is backed by Your Party co-founder Zarah Sultana and has called for “no more top-down party”.

    Nominations for the CEC elections close next week.

    https://x.com/meganekenyon/status/2010446184180265262

    Here are your aspiring class warriors: https://www.grassrootsleft.org/candidates
    When you look at those resumes, I'd wager that a fair few of these are, or were until recently, SWP activists? If so, that's not going to end well, as the SWP isn't well liked for its tactics, even on much of the left
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 53,813
    Malmesbury said:

    A

    Selebian said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    bondegezou said:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cwy8gpvdd1go

    London homicides at 11-year low, Met Police says

    “Homicide in London has fallen to its lowest level in more than a decade, new figures released by the Metropolitan Police show.

    “The force said 97 homicides were recorded in 2025, the lowest figure since 2014, at a rate of 1.1 per 100,000 people, lower than New York (2.8), Berlin (3.2) and Milan (1.6).”

    Go Sadiq!

    Every columnist from the Times up to the Knappers Gazette will be tapping out their favoured theory to explain London's falling murder rate, and there are so many to choose from – statistical noise; less air pollution; Albanian takeover of the drugs trade from machete-wielding postcode gangs; restrictions on knife sales; stop and search; face recognition cameras; no doubt even Brexit.

    Of course the real reason is that Keir Starmer forced all schools to show Adolescence.
    You forgot Britain's productivity crisis. Murderers spending too much time on social media these days :disappointed:
    In order to commit a murder, you need to fill out 17 separate, contradictory forms. That require paid, professional assistance to navigate. Murder is simply too complex and expensive.
    Brexit again?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 57,157
    Malmesbury said:

    A

    Selebian said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    bondegezou said:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cwy8gpvdd1go

    London homicides at 11-year low, Met Police says

    “Homicide in London has fallen to its lowest level in more than a decade, new figures released by the Metropolitan Police show.

    “The force said 97 homicides were recorded in 2025, the lowest figure since 2014, at a rate of 1.1 per 100,000 people, lower than New York (2.8), Berlin (3.2) and Milan (1.6).”

    Go Sadiq!

    Every columnist from the Times up to the Knappers Gazette will be tapping out their favoured theory to explain London's falling murder rate, and there are so many to choose from – statistical noise; less air pollution; Albanian takeover of the drugs trade from machete-wielding postcode gangs; restrictions on knife sales; stop and search; face recognition cameras; no doubt even Brexit.

    Of course the real reason is that Keir Starmer forced all schools to show Adolescence.
    You forgot Britain's productivity crisis. Murderers spending too much time on social media these days :disappointed:
    In order to commit a murder, you need to fill out 17 separate, contradictory forms. That require paid, professional assistance to navigate. Murder is simply too complex and expensive.
    I blame no-fault divorce laws. Easier to go for the decree absolute than stick the missus under the patio...
  • FossFoss Posts: 2,229
    MarqueeMark said:

    theProle said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    IanB2 said:

    bondegezou said:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cwy8gpvdd1go

    London homicides at 11-year low, Met Police says

    “Homicide in London has fallen to its lowest level in more than a decade, new figures released by the Metropolitan Police show.

    “The force said 97 homicides were recorded in 2025, the lowest figure since 2014, at a rate of 1.1 per 100,000 people, lower than New York (2.8), Berlin (3.2) and Milan (1.6).”

    Go Sadiq!

    The criminals can't afford to live there any more?
    Or the people who would be murder victims have been killed? Turf wars have run their course, boundaries are settled...
    Doesn't every passing generation provide more potential victim however?
    Maybe the new generation just lacks ambition? It's a result of Covid...
    It's possible that post-covid digital (rather than turf based) dealing results in less violent friction between groups.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 59,883
    IanB2 said:

    FPT

    IanB2 said:

    rottenborough said:

    Grab your popcorn kids...



    megan kenyon
    @meganekenyon

    New: A new group - Grassroots Left - has launched a slate of candidates ahead of Your Party’s central executive committee elections. The slate is backed by Your Party co-founder Zarah Sultana and has called for “no more top-down party”.

    Nominations for the CEC elections close next week.

    https://x.com/meganekenyon/status/2010446184180265262

    Here are your aspiring class warriors: https://www.grassrootsleft.org/candidates
    When you look at those resumes, I'd wager that a fair few of these are, or were until recently, SWP activists? If so, that's not going to end well, as the SWP isn't well liked for its tactics, even on much of the left
    Some people were thrown out of the SWP for excessive factionalism.

    Yes. Indeed.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 41,521
    ‪@stevepeers.bsky.social‬

    EU wants "Farage clause" in Brexit reset agreement

    https://bsky.app/profile/stevepeers.bsky.social/post/3mc7pws54sc2l
  • theProletheProle Posts: 1,650
    Sandpit said:

    Rumours that Iranian authorities have bought from China powerful radio transmitter weapons to block signals from satellite phones and Starlink terminals, that protestors were using to get news out of the country.

    Surely they would make very tempting targets for the Orange One to splat.

    It's not like an enormously powerful radio transmitter will be hard to find, given the radio signals emitting from it, nor yet do they work well from underground bunkers of any substance, so they should present a pretty soft target.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 16,241
    Pro_Rata said:

    Thanks for this, Ben, and "Ho, hum" for my predictions.

    Does anyone get the impression that there seemed to be very little reviewing of 2025 both on PB and across the wider media? If ever a year slipped into history unloved and unmarked, 2025 was it, and perhaps it is a wider malaise than simply Starmer or Trump or any one of the news stories this year.

    And yet, and this is true for most years, and is an important corollary to the go and vote / politics is vital brigade: how often does politics directly turn the course of somebody's life on here? Despite Trump, despite Labour, despite war and refugees and all, most years and last year, the effects of politics on my life were very much at the margins and I think most people can say the same. So, however mad it gets out there, remember it remains a niche and peripheral interest.

    Perhaps politics will come for me this year, and perhaps it is naive to be complacent about it, but more likely "They'll burn down the synagogues at 6 o'clock, and we'll all carry on like before".

    Maybe there is more to be said. 2025 was the year in which, IMHO: the UK and western Europe ceased to have a reliable and trustworthy defence system. And in which in became clear that our former ally, the USA, would threaten the UK and any western country militarily if it were in its interests to do so. And it which it became likely that it is no longer a properly functioning liberal free democracy with effective separation of powers. And at the same time the UK and the west is tied inextricably to its former ally in every thinkable way.

    2025 is unloved, yes. And rightly so. But unless and until something changes it is the most significant year for us since 1940/1941.

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