You should always check the wording of your bets – politicalbetting.com
You should always check the wording of your bets – politicalbetting.com
The online wager platform Polymarket has angered some gamblers by declaring it will not settle millions of dollars’ worth of bets on a US invasion of Venezuela, arguing that the capture of the then president, Nicolás Maduro, does not qualify.
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- Next party leaders (normally acting leaders are excluded)
- Next cabinet exits (how are wide-ranging reshuffles settled?)
- Prime Minister exit dates (normally PMs linger until a replacement is found, which can take days or months)
The first applies to football as well, where caretaker managers are normally ignored for betting purposes.Also not available legally in the UK, not sure the GC would accept such a bet resolution process if they did want to get involved here.
Rent at reasonable rates, yes.
McCullum and Key have come under scrutiny after England surrendered the series with losses in the opening three Tests of the best-of-five series.
Both men and Test captain Ben Stokes have expressed a desire to remain in their positions – McCullum and Stokes have contracts with England until after the home Ashes in 2027.
And the management of the England and Wales Cricket Board (ECB) are not minded to impose the sweeping changes that often follow Ashes defeats down under.
Any decision to remove 44-year-old McCullum in particular would have been complicated by the T20 World Cup in Sri Lanka and India, beginning in February.
Instead, the future of the hierarchy now seems to rest on their willingness to accept the need for change and their ability to enact it.
How long they are given to make alterations and improve results is unclear. A poor World Cup would increase pressure, then England's next Test is against New Zealand in June.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cricket/articles/cd0yjkvxk43o
https://x.com/rpsagainsttrump/status/2009141918413000948?s=61&t=LYVEHh2mqFy1oUJAdCfe-Q
Leeds and Wales legend Yorath dies aged 75
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/articles/ce8e5rg2dyxo
I tell you what is frightening, when more and more celebrities of a similar age to your parents start dying.
Betfair introduced the novel approach of not settling until months the event was over. Doesn't matter which side you backed in that case. The serious point punters need to consider is who owns and manages such operations. They are typically owned by Funds and managed by kids with no experience in the business or understanding of its nuances. Try writing to them. In the unlikely event you get past the bots you will encounter an astonishing lack of literacy and the common sense of a house plant.
Yes there will be partisans taking Trump at his word, but most people can use their eyes on the number of videos showing the shooting.
People have already chosen their sides and aren't backing down.
In local news from Aberdeenshire, I see a major incident was finally declared here, too little and too bloody late after the biggest heaviest dump of snow over a week in my living memory since the late 70s when we were snowed in for a week throughout the whole Spey valley when I was growing up in Aviemore and they had to resort to bringing in essential food supplies by helicopter!
As with Storm Arwen four years ago, it finally took the media to suddenly notice the increasingly dire conditions for the North East in the days and weeks following it before the fecking SNP Government ever noticed or even acknowledged it never mind doing feck all to respond to it!! It should still be a badge of shame for the SNP Government at Holyrood that Boris Johnson in London was the first party Leader to acknowledge the hardship we were experiencing up here without power and who reached out to the people in the North East of Scotland at that time. Like then, we just feel utterly ignored by this central belt focussed SNP Government at Holyrood, and again like then they have failed us as the enormity of this unfolding week long emergency has left us in dire straights, and it should have had them reaching out to the Westminster Government for army back up to help the people of the North East. But the selfish sods would never dream of doing it because of their tribal politics and so they have simple chosen to ignore and leave us to it up here yet again.
There have been people trapped in their homes since New Year and unable to get to the shops even for food essentials, a friend told me about a serious emergency two streets down from them yesterday where a resident needed an ambulance and it took the whole neighbourhood to clear their street of snow enough for the ambulance to get nearby access to the patient and then they had to dig out the ambulance when it got stuck trying to leave to get them back onto the main route again so they could get the patient to Aberdeen!
We finally got out of our driveway yesterday after the brief overnight thaw and we grabbed the chance to get to the nearest 40 mile round trip to a supermarket despite the local roads remaining extemely difficult, needs must! And then only to find there was not even a loaf bread to be had, luckily we managed to get milk, but the shelves were empty of many other usual fresh essential foods. And then we got home and the temperatures dropped again, and then the heavy snow started until the early hours...
Tottenham’s Thomas Frank says he did not notice using Arsenal-branded cup before Bournemouth game
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6952136/2026/01/07/thomas-frank-tottenham-arsenal-cup/
And absolute tumbleweed from this useless SNP Government and their local MPs this week as they ignore serious Ministerial misconduct from one of their own Cabinet Ministers yet again while voting to penalise Ash Reagan doing far less while doing nothing proactive to help us here this last week! Its been a week, the UK media crews have now been up here reporting, where is John Swinney?!..
Philippe Bianchi, the father of the late Formula One driver Jules Bianchi, said on Tuesday that individuals stole multiple JB17 Forever karting chassis, including the last kart Jules raced.
Jules died on July 17 2015, aged 25, due to injuries sustained in a crash during the 2014 Japanese Grand Prix nine months prior.
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6950654/2026/01/07/jules-bianchi-karts-stolen-f1/
Which is a multi stage process.
The bad news: Trains cancelled due to Storm Goretti.
Talked about learning lessons, while making it pretty clear that what he intends is to carry on doing everything much the same, but just do it better.
So I doubt much will change.
I thought it particularly stupid of Vaughan yesterday to attack the current management and style of play in the way he did when Stokes currently has a better record as Test captain than Vaughan in terms of % of Tests won. In fact Stokes has won a higher % of his tests as Captain than any other England Captain since Brearly more than 40 years ago.
Exclusive: Brook is on his final warning after incident where he was struck by nightclub bouncer in build-up to the Ashes
Harry Brook is on a final warning about his conduct after a late-night altercation with a bouncer just hours before captaining England on the tour that preceded the Ashes.
Telegraph Sport can reveal that:
Brook was close to being sacked as white-ball captain after an investigation by the team’s management
He was struck by a bouncer who would not allow him into a nightclub
Brook was fined around £30,000, the maximum amount possible by the ECB, for the incident
England’s conduct during the Ashes, which started shortly after the tour to New Zealand, has been heavily criticised – in particular a mid-series holiday to Noosa where players, including Brook, were pictured drinking.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/cricket/2026/01/08/harry-brook-on-final-warning-altercation-bouncer-england-nz/
In U.S. law, under the supremacy clause of the U.S. Constitution, ratified treaties are on the same legal footing as federal statutes. This means they bind the executive. Relevant treaties the United States has signed and the Senate has ratified include:
1) The UN Charter which, under Article 2(4) forbids the "threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any state" and Article 2(1) which establishes the principle of the sovereign equality of all its members.
2) The North Atlantic Treaty which similarly, in Article 1, commits the parties to "settle any international dispute in which they may be involved by peaceful means in such a manner that international peace and security and justice are not endangered, and to refrain in their international relations from the threat or use of force in any manner inconsistent with the purposes of the United Nations."
3) The Convention for Cession of the Danish West Indies, which concerned the sale of what are now the U.S. Virgin Islands. In exchange for the islands, the U.S. government issued a formal declaration (attached to the treaty) stating that it "will not object to the Danish Government extending their political and economic interests to the whole of Greenland."
4) The U.S.-Danish Treaty of Friendship, Commerce and Navigation, which stipulates that the property of nationals (and by extension the state) shall not be taken without "the prompt payment of just compensation" and only for "public purposes," which in international law implies a legal and consensual framework, not a forced or coerced annexation.
https://x.com/EvansRyan202/status/2008901577508008401
Bianchi and Leclerc almost certainly would've been Ferrari team mates together. Tragic that multiple individual events led to his death (bad weather, another driver spinning off, poor light, heavy vehicle recovering the other car, then Bianchi goes off and hits the heavy vehicle).
And let's face it the vast majority of the remaining 42% or so who support him will be white and not racially enlightened, which is why (depressingly) the ethnicity of the victim matters politically. There will be a lot of sympathy towards the victim and anger towards ICE.
But that’s not what most people think the word means, they’re thinking of conviction in the Senate that forces him from office.
Check your bet terms carefully.
I understand the pressures on the BBC, but Radio 4's coverage of the Minneapolis shooting is an example of "bad balance".
It's all "the Trump regime says she was a terrorist, but Democrats say it was murder".
The BBC has the footage. It doesn't have to treat truth and falsehood as equally valid.
https://bsky.app/profile/robertsaunders.bsky.social/post/3mbvle6eyzc2s
I spent 2 hours yesterday digging my car out as I saw that the main road looked clearer and I hoped we had seen the worst of it. Ran urgently needed supplies to my mum (16 miles away in Macduff) and went to the supermarket which had most of what we needed but no bread. And then drove home to spend another half an hour digging a new parking space. Overnight? Another 9cm.
I do have to giggle though. Andrew Bowie MP wrote to the First Minister rightly demanding action. But one action that he wanted was for the government to issue guidance via "leaflets". Who was going to deliver bloody leaflets?
Is "law abiding Americans" a meaningful thing? Who haven't been paying attention, think borders do need protecting, accept there will be some rough handling as part of that, but would be appalled by men in masks rampaging communities killing random people.
Not used their sportsbook since.
You know that 2nd Amendment? That it mentions militias? Now would be an opportune moment for militias to be formed, to defend themselves against the SA goons murdering people in the street.
If only they had gotten Travis Head in the picture too.
No snow days out here, but we did get a couple of rain days in December with official advice to WFH where possible.
While Stokes is an inspirational leader, and fine player, both he and his team seem unable to adjust to situations which don't favour a one note approach.
In his interview he talked about England's batsmen being "fooled" by the Australians into playing rash shots. That's just delusional from what I observed.
England have had pretty good results because they have a handful of outstanding players. But I strongly believe they don't maximise their chances as a team. And certainly not on this tour.
Minnesota could well be the epicentre. There is fury about the fraud that’s been uncovered, much of it linked to immigrant communities. There’s also fury about the heavyhandedness of Federal police, and incidents such as we saw yesterday.
I have not experieced anything like it since the late 1970s when I was growing up in Aviemore and the whole Spey valley was cut off for a week and you could only manage to walk on the deeply snow impacted snow on the main road there to get anywhere because the snow drifts were so big and deep at either side of the road. We also lost power for days, and I still remember one morning waking up and the snow drifts up to our front door and neighbours were so deep we literally had to dig ourselves out of our own homes and we made tunnels in the snow to connect us with us our neighbours to help each other out.
But that was back before Devolution at Holyrood, and I am not exaggerating, there was not only far earlier acknowledgement but also practical help from the then Westminster Government than we have ever seen in recent years during storm Arwen and now this last week. Not going to lie, we have yet again been shocked at how we have been ignored by the SNP Goverment.
The Shire was already on its knees with this winter storm on Monday, go google what the SNP Government and the Political lobby at Holyrood were foccusing on and reporting on Monday when people in Aberdeenshire were already trapped in their homes since New Year after a three day amber of heavy snow...
it happened today and was committed by a masked ICE agent
https://x.com/sam_d_1995/status/2009093577960509799
None of us had skied before, and my cousin badly broke his leg within 30sec of first getting on his skis at the top of the slope.
Pretty good holiday for the rest of us, though.
https://www.facebook.com/photo/?fbid=1265462328733090&set=a.354274456518553
Let's be very clear. The council workers are under siege with need - we've had council teams in the village clearing and ploughing but there's only so many resources and lots of need. The council contract farmers to clear roads and pull stranded vehicles, but it's chaos. Side roads with man-sized drifts and it comes back as soon as you clear it. Main roads kept open as a single track (I live on the main Peterhead - Banff road and we're just about passable at times.
https://x.com/tendar/status/2009144272147370229
Proof if needed that Ukraine can hit strategic targets in Moscow pretty much at will.
Also proof that the Ukranians are using their missiles on strategic military targets, and not wasting them on residential or public buildings. The two sides in this war are not the same.
Also Russian bloggers are furious with Trump and the US boarding of the two shadow fleet vessels. They appear to have thought he was bought and paid for, only looking out for Russian interests rather than American interests. Congress has also agreed a bipartisan new sanctions package, which Trump will sign next week!
https://x.com/lindseygrahamsc/status/2009037587416027479
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/videos/cx2ypz4zjvxo
To my eye the officer could have stepped out of the way, on top of the vehicle moving round him at a modest speed, rather than stand and shoot through the windscreen.
I think there is a cultural issue around aspects of the US policing, and various legal and organisational loopholes that facilitate it far too easily.
It's a bit more understandable that they got the reporting wrong when the story broke last night, but it's very disappointing journalism for them to continue to both-sides it this morning.
It was imo 44% justified. She could have been going round him she could have been going for him. Wheels were just - just - as if she was going round but he might have thought for. And he couldn't see the wheels in any case.
Using lethal force vs a woman in a car moving at 4mph to me seems wrong but I wasn't the guy in a tense situation believing my life was at risk.
Maybe 40%. But I can see it.
I wonder who will get the Melania Trump vs Michael Wolff one. It seems that to avoid being served with paperwork she has turned into the Scarlet Pimpernel, and is separately trying to get it transferred to Judge Cannon in the town of Corruption, Florida.
https://x.com/keir_starmer/status/2009174530779172891
I won’t apologise for lifting almost half a million children out of poverty.
I won’t apologise for putting money back in people’s pockets.
That's why we are scrapping the two-child limit.
Whoever is running social media in No.10 appears to be living in a very big bubble, scheduling posts well in advance and ignoring what’s actually going on in the real world.
And they refused to let doctor on the scene attend to her.
Spoke on background with two attorneys who have defended officer involved shootings.
Both have always taken their cases to trial.
After reviewing the events today, both said if it were their client they’d advise:
-Seek a plea deal
-Be willing to plead guilty to a lesser crime or a lower sentence
-Accept anything that isn’t de jure LWOP (life with out parole)
In other words, the guys who defend police officers shooting for a living, think this case is unwinnable.
They would try to defend his actions, they’d just try and lower the impact of the outcome.
Their main sticking point were:
-“I could argue shot number one and hope for an acquittal or a hung jury - but I can’t get there on shots 2 and 3”
-“A jury will not get passed the turning of the wheels”
-“Denying medics throws self defense out the window”
https://x.com/adamscochran/status/2009111755260060128
It's a contrast to the Trump-supporting position of a majority of 'white evangelicals' in the USA, and is more typical of the majority position in the UK.
(There's some lefty commentary around it.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YDxtmkIYqV0
Before he started trying to open her door (with no justification or authority) she is clearly trying to reverse and get out of the area. I’m definitely no woke lefty but can clearly see this was a result of ICE believing they have powers they don’t and being trigger happy when they should have just let her go and if they believed she had committed an offence then they could have reported her to the police and let them deal with it.
However the tricksy part with Polymarket is that they reserve the right to redefine the terms of the market whenever they like, and presumably some insiders in Polymarket know when they're going to do this before they do it.
The legal outcome will depend on the actual regulations in the particular place. So I have no hope whatsoever of guessing what will happen !
If the Capitol Police had abided by the standards of MAGA commentators on the Minneapolis ICE shooting, half the January 6 protesters would have been shot to death.
https://x.com/ThaddeusRussell/status/2009031175130788188
Just because people don't respond on here doesn't mean they don't know and they don't care.
Which is probably why the ICE agent has fled the jurisdiction.
As for the impacts of the coming storm, hard to know at this stage - further north and higher up would be the places for snow I'd imagine - only expecting cold rain here in downtown East London.