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Note the time and date, Starmer does a funny – politicalbetting.com

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  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 26,399
    No need for bans at all. However, when clearly intelligent posters drink the MAGA kool aid, cheerlead doublespeak and justify violence, it does neither them nor the rest of us any good if we pretend all is hunky dory.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 41,491
    @JessicaBRiedl

    There's a misperception that law enforcement (or ICE) is permitted to use lethal force any time they feel the slightest bit endangered, or whenever some terrified person with a gun pointed at them does not immediately follow (often unclear) orders perfectly.

    That's just not true. Lethal force is allowed ONLY when there is literally no possible alternative to preventing other deaths. In this case, that requires that:

    1) An officer would surely have been killed by her continuing to drive 2 mph away from them, and
    2) There was NO OTHER WAY to save their lives, such as hopping out of the way of a barely moving car, shooting the tires, firing a warning shot, or shooting to just injure.

    No rational person can watch the video and conclude that both standards were met.

    And, no, there is no "the ICE officer was panicking and didn't have time to think" exception. The law still applies, and if we're going to judge the panicked response of a woman in a car with a gun pointed at her, then we can absolutely judge the panicked response of a ICE official who had unnecessarily pulled a gun in a situation that did not require it.

    There are rules of engagement, even for under-trained ICE officials who just saw their training slashed from 5 months to 47 days (because Trump is #47, how cute).

    This ICE official clearly failed to follow those rules, and that means a 6-year old had to be told at school today that his mother is gone forever.

    https://x.com/JessicaBRiedl/status/2009125679984480607?s=20
  • MelonBMelonB Posts: 16,654
    Sandpit said:

    malcolmg said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    I think the politicians who stoked a climate of hysteria about the federal government enforcing immigration laws and encouraged people to stand in the way of ICE officers doing their jobs need to accept their share of responsibility for what happened.

    I wish the mods would ban this bot.
    I don't. I value WilliamGlenns alternative viewpoints, even when I don't agree with them.

    It's disappointing that a post personally abusing him for this got so many likes overnight. And I don't think that's to this site's credit.
    There are a few things here.

    William regularly cheerleads a president whose rhetoric is constantly suffused with both personal and general abuse.

    People are understandably angry when he seeks to justify what looks very like murder by a member of the largest and least trained coercive federal agency in history.

    I agree with those who say william should not be banned.

    But I am not going to pretend that he is not defending what is rapidly descending into fascism.
    If we ban William having already lost Leon this site's days representing all viewpoints would be over and it may as well be renamed LDbetting
    There is definitely something of a blind spot on this site when it comes to US politics. Trying to put across the other side frequently results in personal abuse in return. We should be able to debate without the hyperbole that affects many other sites.

    To be fair, this also represents the situation in the US itself, where the two sides are extremely polarised, consume totally different media, and often talk straight past each other while misrepresenting the opposing position.

    The mid-terms are likely to be a turnout war, both parties are historically unpopular.

    Edit: Yes the situation in Minnesota could get worse before it gets better, the population is absolutely furious at the fraud that’s been uncovered.
    Trying to defend what is a blatant murder is a pretty poor show though. You would have to be blind to be taken in.
    Personally I try and avoid commenting on incidents such as we saw yesterday. Far too many times has the video been carefully edited to show one particular point of view, or we see only the beginning or the end of a larger incident, with the full video showing a different story once the media has moved on.
    I try to avoid commentating on US purely domestic affairs on the basis it is a foreign country, it’s self-evidently no longer a normal democracy, we don’t comment on every extra-judicial killing in Myanmar or Iran or Egypt, and frankly America’s internal affairs take up way too much media bandwidth here in Europe.

    There is more than enough unsavoury US foreign policy that directly affects us and our allies to comment on.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 85,122
    Sandpit said:

    malcolmg said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    I think the politicians who stoked a climate of hysteria about the federal government enforcing immigration laws and encouraged people to stand in the way of ICE officers doing their jobs need to accept their share of responsibility for what happened.

    I wish the mods would ban this bot.
    I don't. I value WilliamGlenns alternative viewpoints, even when I don't agree with them.

    It's disappointing that a post personally abusing him for this got so many likes overnight. And I don't think that's to this site's credit.
    There are a few things here.

    William regularly cheerleads a president whose rhetoric is constantly suffused with both personal and general abuse.

    People are understandably angry when he seeks to justify what looks very like murder by a member of the largest and least trained coercive federal agency in history.

    I agree with those who say william should not be banned.

    But I am not going to pretend that he is not defending what is rapidly descending into fascism.
    If we ban William having already lost Leon this site's days representing all viewpoints would be over and it may as well be renamed LDbetting
    There is definitely something of a blind spot on this site when it comes to US politics. Trying to put across the other side frequently results in personal abuse in return. We should be able to debate without the hyperbole that affects many other sites.

    To be fair, this also represents the situation in the US itself, where the two sides are extremely polarised, consume totally different media, and often talk straight past each other while misrepresenting the opposing position.

    The mid-terms are likely to be a turnout war, both parties are historically unpopular.

    Edit: Yes the situation in Minnesota could get worse before it gets better, the population is absolutely furious at the fraud that’s been uncovered.
    Trying to defend what is a blatant murder is a pretty poor show though. You would have to be blind to be taken in.
    Personally I try and avoid commenting on incidents such as we saw yesterday. Far too many times has the video been carefully edited to show one particular point of view, or we see only the beginning or the end of a larger incident, with the full video showing a different story once the media has moved on.
    Several points.

    The videos (there's more than one) simply aren't compatible with Trump and Noem's accounts, however you look at it.

    The agent who shot dead the woman immediately left the scene (and is rumoured to have left the state). That in itself is unlawful.

    It's questionable that ICE had any legal justification for attempting to stop this woman.
    Unless she was actively and obviously obstructing them, then she was entirely within her rights to follow, observe and/or protest their actions.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 13,095
    edited January 8
    malcolmg said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    I think the politicians who stoked a climate of hysteria about the federal government enforcing immigration laws and encouraged people to stand in the way of ICE officers doing their jobs need to accept their share of responsibility for what happened.

    I wish the mods would ban this bot.
    I don't. I value WilliamGlenns alternative viewpoints, even when I don't agree with them.

    It's disappointing that a post personally abusing him for this got so many likes overnight. And I don't think that's to this site's credit.
    There are a few things here.

    William regularly cheerleads a president whose rhetoric is constantly suffused with both personal and general abuse.

    People are understandably angry when he seeks to justify what looks very like murder by a member of the largest and least trained coercive federal agency in history.

    I agree with those who say william should not be banned.

    But I am not going to pretend that he is not defending what is rapidly descending into fascism.
    If we ban William having already lost Leon this site's days representing all viewpoints would be over and it may as well be renamed LDbetting
    There is definitely something of a blind spot on this site when it comes to US politics. Trying to put across the other side frequently results in personal abuse in return. We should be able to debate without the hyperbole that affects many other sites.

    To be fair, this also represents the situation in the US itself, where the two sides are extremely polarised, consume totally different media, and often talk straight past each other while misrepresenting the opposing position.

    The mid-terms are likely to be a turnout war, both parties are historically unpopular.

    Edit: Yes the situation in Minnesota could get worse before it gets better, the population is absolutely furious at the fraud that’s been uncovered.
    Trying to defend what is a blatant murder is a pretty poor show though. You would have to be blind to be taken in.
    Yes - it's perfectly possible to explain that many Americans will support this kind of thing (unidentifiable federal agents storming into cities and killing US citizens), without actually espousing those views yourself.

    Posters like Roger get plenty of personal abuse for suggesting mad stuff from the left. And plenty of people get eye-watering abuse from yourself for even suggesting sensible things like taking your State Pension away. Not sure why williamglenn should be protected from the same - particularly if he's just being a troll, as I suspect.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 45,663
    Sandpit said:

    malcolmg said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    I think the politicians who stoked a climate of hysteria about the federal government enforcing immigration laws and encouraged people to stand in the way of ICE officers doing their jobs need to accept their share of responsibility for what happened.

    I wish the mods would ban this bot.
    I don't. I value WilliamGlenns alternative viewpoints, even when I don't agree with them.

    It's disappointing that a post personally abusing him for this got so many likes overnight. And I don't think that's to this site's credit.
    There are a few things here.

    William regularly cheerleads a president whose rhetoric is constantly suffused with both personal and general abuse.

    People are understandably angry when he seeks to justify what looks very like murder by a member of the largest and least trained coercive federal agency in history.

    I agree with those who say william should not be banned.

    But I am not going to pretend that he is not defending what is rapidly descending into fascism.
    If we ban William having already lost Leon this site's days representing all viewpoints would be over and it may as well be renamed LDbetting
    There is definitely something of a blind spot on this site when it comes to US politics. Trying to put across the other side frequently results in personal abuse in return. We should be able to debate without the hyperbole that affects many other sites.

    To be fair, this also represents the situation in the US itself, where the two sides are extremely polarised, consume totally different media, and often talk straight past each other while misrepresenting the opposing position.

    The mid-terms are likely to be a turnout war, both parties are historically unpopular.

    Edit: Yes the situation in Minnesota could get worse before it gets better, the population is absolutely furious at the fraud that’s been uncovered.
    Trying to defend what is a blatant murder is a pretty poor show though. You would have to be blind to be taken in.
    Personally I try and avoid commenting on incidents such as we saw yesterday. Far too many times has the video been carefully edited to show one particular point of view, or we see only the beginning or the end of a larger incident, with the full video showing a different story once the media has moved on.
    well having seen several and in slow motion this one looks very clear cut.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 41,491
    MelonB said:

    I try to avoid commentating on US purely domestic affairs on the basis it is a foreign country, it’s self-evidently no longer a normal democracy, we don’t comment on every extra-judicial killing in Myanmar or Iran or Egypt, and frankly America’s internal affairs take up way too much media bandwidth here in Europe.

    There is more than enough unsavoury US foreign policy that directly affects us and our allies to comment on.

    The US president leading a fascist state is a concern to everybody
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 13,095
    edited January 8
    Sandpit said:

    malcolmg said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    I think the politicians who stoked a climate of hysteria about the federal government enforcing immigration laws and encouraged people to stand in the way of ICE officers doing their jobs need to accept their share of responsibility for what happened.

    I wish the mods would ban this bot.
    I don't. I value WilliamGlenns alternative viewpoints, even when I don't agree with them.

    It's disappointing that a post personally abusing him for this got so many likes overnight. And I don't think that's to this site's credit.
    There are a few things here.

    William regularly cheerleads a president whose rhetoric is constantly suffused with both personal and general abuse.

    People are understandably angry when he seeks to justify what looks very like murder by a member of the largest and least trained coercive federal agency in history.

    I agree with those who say william should not be banned.

    But I am not going to pretend that he is not defending what is rapidly descending into fascism.
    If we ban William having already lost Leon this site's days representing all viewpoints would be over and it may as well be renamed LDbetting
    There is definitely something of a blind spot on this site when it comes to US politics. Trying to put across the other side frequently results in personal abuse in return. We should be able to debate without the hyperbole that affects many other sites.

    To be fair, this also represents the situation in the US itself, where the two sides are extremely polarised, consume totally different media, and often talk straight past each other while misrepresenting the opposing position.

    The mid-terms are likely to be a turnout war, both parties are historically unpopular.

    Edit: Yes the situation in Minnesota could get worse before it gets better, the population is absolutely furious at the fraud that’s been uncovered.
    Trying to defend what is a blatant murder is a pretty poor show though. You would have to be blind to be taken in.
    Personally I try and avoid commenting on incidents such as we saw yesterday. Far too many times has the video been carefully edited to show one particular point of view, or we see only the beginning or the end of a larger incident, with the full video showing a different story once the media has moved on.
    That's very sensible - and you should be piling on Trump for doing exactly that.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,659
    edited January 8
    Surprised the media are not currently even glancing at the unfolding uprising in Iran, and especially the future ramifications if the brutal Regime there finally falls for this country internally as well as the ending of State funded terrorism in at least three other middle countries as well as for the neighbouring country of Iraq where Iran's prescence has been a huge negative for the stability and progress of that country. The implications for change in the Middle East if this happens are huge.

    In other local news from Aberdeenshire, I see a major incident was finally declared here, too little and too bloody late after the biggest heaviest dump of snow over a week in my living memory since the late 70s when we were snowed in for a week throughout the whole Spey valley when I was growing up in Aviemore and they had to resort to bringing in essential food supplies by helicopter!

    As with Storm Arwen four years ago, it finally took the media to suddenly notice the increasingly dire conditions for the North East in the days and weeks following it before that fecking SNP Government ever noticed or even acknowledged it never mind doing feck all to respond to it!! It should still be a badge of shame for the SNP Government at Holyrood that Boris Johnson in London was the first party Leader to asknowledge the hardship and reach out to the people in the North East of Scotland at that time. Like then, we just feel utterly ignored by this central belt focussed SNP Government at Holyrood, and again like then they have failed us as the enormity of this unfolding emergency should have had them reaching out to the Westminster Government for army back up to help the people of the North East. But the selfish sods would never of dream of doing that so they simple ignore and leave us to it up here.

    There have been people trapped in their homes since New Year and unable to get to the shops even for food essentials, a friend told me about a serious emergency two streets down from them yesterday where a resident needed an ambulance and it took the whole neighbourhood to clear their street of snow enough for the ambulance to get nearby access tp the patient and then they had to dig out the ambulance when it got stuck trying to leave to get them back onto the main route again so they could get the patient to Aberdeen!

    We finally got out of our driveway and lane yesterday after the brief overnight thaw and grabbed the chance to get to the nearest round 40 mile round trip supermarket despite local roads remaining extemely difficult, needs must! And then only to find there was not even a loaf bread to be had, luckily we managed to get milk, but the shelves were empty of many other usual fresh essential foods. And then we got home and the temperatures dropped again, and then the heavy snow started until the early hours...


  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 26,399
    Scott_xP said:

    MelonB said:

    I try to avoid commentating on US purely domestic affairs on the basis it is a foreign country, it’s self-evidently no longer a normal democracy, we don’t comment on every extra-judicial killing in Myanmar or Iran or Egypt, and frankly America’s internal affairs take up way too much media bandwidth here in Europe.

    There is more than enough unsavoury US foreign policy that directly affects us and our allies to comment on.

    The US president leading a fascist state is a concern to everybody
    It is a concern but what is the right level of attention we should give to it?

    Can we change it?
    Can we stop (or reduce the chance of) it happening here?
    Does obsessive following and commentary improve or worsen our lives?

    The melon has a point.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 132,723
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    I think the politicians who stoked a climate of hysteria about the federal government enforcing immigration laws and encouraged people to stand in the way of ICE officers doing their jobs need to accept their share of responsibility for what happened.

    I wish the mods would ban this bot.
    I don't. I value WilliamGlenns alternative viewpoints, even when I don't agree with them.

    It's disappointing that a post personally abusing him for this got so many likes overnight. And I don't think that's to this site's credit.
    There are a few things here.

    William regularly cheerleads a president whose rhetoric is constantly suffused with both personal and general abuse.

    People are understandably angry when he seeks to justify what looks very like murder by a member of the largest and least trained coercive federal agency in history.

    I agree with those who say william should not be banned.

    But I am not going to pretend that he is not defending what is rapidly descending into fascism.
    If we ban William having already lost Leon this site's days representing all viewpoints would be over and it may as well be renamed LDbetting
    You're being a silly billy (again). LD betting? Apart from Casino and yourself, oh and Topping and Max and Bartholomew on the right, and Palmer and owls on the left. And malc, and Taz, both renowned friends of the LibDems... and too many others to mention.
    Try finding a committed Reform or Trump backer though if William left
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 15,163
    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    Carney serems to be getting the sort of polling to make Starmer weep.

    "Would you say Canada as a country is moving in the right or wrong direction?"

    Right Direction: 53% (+30)
    Wrong Direction: 31% (-33)

    Nanos / December 29, 2025 / n=1000 / MOE 3.1% / Telephone/Online

    (% Change With December 2024)

    https://bsky.app/profile/canadianpolling.bsky.social/post/3mbrkd5imkc2l

    It is interesting to compare Canada's morale faced with a far more powerful, hostile entity on its border, with the UK's morale upon leaving the EU. It seems to underline to me that our demoralised outlook really has nothing to do with the conditions of Brexit but with the responses of our own administrators, politicians and power structures. Canada seems to have united in response to bullying. Personally I think they've united around the wrong leader, but their resolve is still impressive. The UK has been utterly craven.
    Boris had ratings as high as Carney in 2021
    Yes, but Boris's supporters were mostly deluded, as they came to realise eventually.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 125,544

    NEW THREAD

  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 41,491

    Scott_xP said:

    MelonB said:

    I try to avoid commentating on US purely domestic affairs on the basis it is a foreign country, it’s self-evidently no longer a normal democracy, we don’t comment on every extra-judicial killing in Myanmar or Iran or Egypt, and frankly America’s internal affairs take up way too much media bandwidth here in Europe.

    There is more than enough unsavoury US foreign policy that directly affects us and our allies to comment on.

    The US president leading a fascist state is a concern to everybody
    It is a concern but what is the right level of attention we should give to it?

    Can we change it?
    Can we stop (or reduce the chance of) it happening here?
    Does obsessive following and commentary improve or worsen our lives?

    The melon has a point.
    Maybe if we close our eyes the bad thing will go away...
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 26,399
    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    I think the politicians who stoked a climate of hysteria about the federal government enforcing immigration laws and encouraged people to stand in the way of ICE officers doing their jobs need to accept their share of responsibility for what happened.

    I wish the mods would ban this bot.
    I don't. I value WilliamGlenns alternative viewpoints, even when I don't agree with them.

    It's disappointing that a post personally abusing him for this got so many likes overnight. And I don't think that's to this site's credit.
    There are a few things here.

    William regularly cheerleads a president whose rhetoric is constantly suffused with both personal and general abuse.

    People are understandably angry when he seeks to justify what looks very like murder by a member of the largest and least trained coercive federal agency in history.

    I agree with those who say william should not be banned.

    But I am not going to pretend that he is not defending what is rapidly descending into fascism.
    If we ban William having already lost Leon this site's days representing all viewpoints would be over and it may as well be renamed LDbetting
    You're being a silly billy (again). LD betting? Apart from Casino and yourself, oh and Topping and Max and Bartholomew on the right, and Palmer and owls on the left. And malc, and Taz, both renowned friends of the LibDems... and too many others to mention.
    Try finding a committed Reform or Trump backer though if William left
    Moonshine is a more interesting poster from that pov.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 45,663
    Eabhal said:

    malcolmg said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    I think the politicians who stoked a climate of hysteria about the federal government enforcing immigration laws and encouraged people to stand in the way of ICE officers doing their jobs need to accept their share of responsibility for what happened.

    I wish the mods would ban this bot.
    I don't. I value WilliamGlenns alternative viewpoints, even when I don't agree with them.

    It's disappointing that a post personally abusing him for this got so many likes overnight. And I don't think that's to this site's credit.
    There are a few things here.

    William regularly cheerleads a president whose rhetoric is constantly suffused with both personal and general abuse.

    People are understandably angry when he seeks to justify what looks very like murder by a member of the largest and least trained coercive federal agency in history.

    I agree with those who say william should not be banned.

    But I am not going to pretend that he is not defending what is rapidly descending into fascism.
    If we ban William having already lost Leon this site's days representing all viewpoints would be over and it may as well be renamed LDbetting
    There is definitely something of a blind spot on this site when it comes to US politics. Trying to put across the other side frequently results in personal abuse in return. We should be able to debate without the hyperbole that affects many other sites.

    To be fair, this also represents the situation in the US itself, where the two sides are extremely polarised, consume totally different media, and often talk straight past each other while misrepresenting the opposing position.

    The mid-terms are likely to be a turnout war, both parties are historically unpopular.

    Edit: Yes the situation in Minnesota could get worse before it gets better, the population is absolutely furious at the fraud that’s been uncovered.
    Trying to defend what is a blatant murder is a pretty poor show though. You would have to be blind to be taken in.
    Yes - it's perfectly possible to explain that many Americans will support this kind of thing (unidentifiable federal agents storming into cities and killing US citizens), without actually espousing those views yourself.

    Posters like Roger get plenty of personal abuse for suggesting mad stuff from the left. And plenty of people get eye-watering abuse from yourself for even suggesting sensible things like taking your State Pension away. Not sure why williamglenn should be protected from the same - particularly if he's just being a troll, as I suspect.
    You are far worse than williamglen with your deep seated hatred of pensioners, wishing to impoverish them whilst living high on the hog. No doubt from the public teat as well, you got your Australia tickets booked yet, thought not. As long as it is not illegal it would be rather silly to ban people because of bleeding heart liberals getting their panties in a bunch.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 26,399
    Scott_xP said:

    Scott_xP said:

    MelonB said:

    I try to avoid commentating on US purely domestic affairs on the basis it is a foreign country, it’s self-evidently no longer a normal democracy, we don’t comment on every extra-judicial killing in Myanmar or Iran or Egypt, and frankly America’s internal affairs take up way too much media bandwidth here in Europe.

    There is more than enough unsavoury US foreign policy that directly affects us and our allies to comment on.

    The US president leading a fascist state is a concern to everybody
    It is a concern but what is the right level of attention we should give to it?

    Can we change it?
    Can we stop (or reduce the chance of) it happening here?
    Does obsessive following and commentary improve or worsen our lives?

    The melon has a point.
    Maybe if we close our eyes the bad thing will go away...
    If we keep our eyes open does the bad thing miraculously go away?

    The alcoholics have it right - accept the things I cannot change, Courage to change the things I can, And wisdom to know the difference.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 59,176
    Eabhal said:

    Sandpit said:

    malcolmg said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    I think the politicians who stoked a climate of hysteria about the federal government enforcing immigration laws and encouraged people to stand in the way of ICE officers doing their jobs need to accept their share of responsibility for what happened.

    I wish the mods would ban this bot.
    I don't. I value WilliamGlenns alternative viewpoints, even when I don't agree with them.

    It's disappointing that a post personally abusing him for this got so many likes overnight. And I don't think that's to this site's credit.
    There are a few things here.

    William regularly cheerleads a president whose rhetoric is constantly suffused with both personal and general abuse.

    People are understandably angry when he seeks to justify what looks very like murder by a member of the largest and least trained coercive federal agency in history.

    I agree with those who say william should not be banned.

    But I am not going to pretend that he is not defending what is rapidly descending into fascism.
    If we ban William having already lost Leon this site's days representing all viewpoints would be over and it may as well be renamed LDbetting
    There is definitely something of a blind spot on this site when it comes to US politics. Trying to put across the other side frequently results in personal abuse in return. We should be able to debate without the hyperbole that affects many other sites.

    To be fair, this also represents the situation in the US itself, where the two sides are extremely polarised, consume totally different media, and often talk straight past each other while misrepresenting the opposing position.

    The mid-terms are likely to be a turnout war, both parties are historically unpopular.

    Edit: Yes the situation in Minnesota could get worse before it gets better, the population is absolutely furious at the fraud that’s been uncovered.
    Trying to defend what is a blatant murder is a pretty poor show though. You would have to be blind to be taken in.
    Personally I try and avoid commenting on incidents such as we saw yesterday. Far too many times has the video been carefully edited to show one particular point of view, or we see only the beginning or the end of a larger incident, with the full video showing a different story once the media has moved on.
    That's very sensible - and you should be piling on Trump for doing exactly that.
    I try and avoid “piling in” on anyone, but have no problem criticising Trump if he messes up. I genuinely don’t think much of him, but I also don’t think he’s Hitler.

    Top officials such as presidents and ministers probably get their first version of events passed up the chain from the police on the ground, rather than from watching CNN.

    It wouldn’t be a surprise to find out later that either we saw only the last few seconds of a much longer incident, or that a policeman messed up and reached for their gun too hastily. It’s not as if there isn’t a long history of both in the US.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 54,667
    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    I think the politicians who stoked a climate of hysteria about the federal government enforcing immigration laws and encouraged people to stand in the way of ICE officers doing their jobs need to accept their share of responsibility for what happened.

    I wish the mods would ban this bot.
    I don't. I value WilliamGlenns alternative viewpoints, even when I don't agree with them.

    It's disappointing that a post personally abusing him for this got so many likes overnight. And I don't think that's to this site's credit.
    There are a few things here.

    William regularly cheerleads a president whose rhetoric is constantly suffused with both personal and general abuse.

    People are understandably angry when he seeks to justify what looks very like murder by a member of the largest and least trained coercive federal agency in history.

    I agree with those who say william should not be banned.

    But I am not going to pretend that he is not defending what is rapidly descending into fascism.
    If we ban William having already lost Leon this site's days representing all viewpoints would be over and it may as well be renamed LDbetting
    You're being a silly billy (again). LD betting? Apart from Casino and yourself, oh and Topping and Max and Bartholomew on the right, and Palmer and owls on the left. And malc, and Taz, both renowned friends of the LibDems... and too many others to mention.
    Try finding a committed Reform or Trump backer though if William left
    There are several, but not willing to do so publically as they don't want to be pillorried for defending the indefensible.

    I don't think WG should be banned, just mocked.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,659
    fitalass said:

    Surprised the media are not currently even glancing at the unfolding uprising in Iran, and especially the future ramifications if the brutal Regime there finally falls for this country internally as well as the ending of State funded terrorism in at least three other middle countries as well as for the neighbouring country of Iraq where Iran's prescence has been a huge negative for the stability and progress of that country. The implications for change in the Middle East if this happens are huge.

    In other local news from Aberdeenshire, I see a major incident was finally declared here, too little and too bloody late after the biggest heaviest dump of snow over a week in my living memory since the late 70s when we were snowed in for a week throughout the whole Spey valley when I was growing up in Aviemore and they had to resort to bringing in essential food supplies by helicopter!

    As with Storm Arwen four years ago, it finally took the media to suddenly notice the increasingly dire conditions for the North East in the days and weeks following it before that fecking SNP Government ever noticed or even acknowledged it never mind doing feck all to respond to it!! It should still be a badge of shame for the SNP Government at Holyrood that Boris Johnson in London was the first party Leader to asknowledge the hardship and reach out to the people in the North East of Scotland at that time. Like then, we just feel utterly ignored by this central belt focussed SNP Government at Holyrood, and again like then they have failed us as the enormity of this unfolding emergency should have had them reaching out to the Westminster Government for army back up to help the people of the North East. But the selfish sods would never of dream of doing that so they simple ignore and leave us to it up here.

    There have been people trapped in their homes since New Year and unable to get to the shops even for food essentials, a friend told me about a serious emergency two streets down from them yesterday where a resident needed an ambulance and it took the whole neighbourhood to clear their street of snow enough for the ambulance to get nearby access tp the patient and then they had to dig out the ambulance when it got stuck trying to leave to get them back onto the main route again so they could get the patient to Aberdeen!

    We finally got out of our driveway and lane yesterday after the brief overnight thaw and grabbed the chance to get to the nearest round 40 mile round trip supermarket despite local roads remaining extemely difficult, needs must! And then only to find there was not even a loaf bread to be had, luckily we managed to get milk, but the shelves were empty of many other usual fresh essential foods. And then we got home and the temperatures dropped again, and then the heavy snow started until the early hours...


    Apologies for errors. The schools in Aberdeenshire are closed again today for the fourth day due to the weather conditions, our bins were cancelled which meant that our main bins were not collected after being delayed already by Christmas by over three weeks, now told to wait for the next collection....!!

    But to add to the current situation, absolute tumbleweed from this useless SNP Government and their local MPs this week as they ignore serious Ministerial misconduct from one of their own Cabinet Ministers yet again while voting to penalise Ash Reagan doing far less while doing nothing proactive to help us here this last week! Its been a week, the UK media crews have now been up here reporting on the severe winter conditions for a couple of days as they finally noticed, where is John Swinney?!..
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 85,122
    .
    fitalass said:

    Surprised the media are not currently even glancing at the unfolding uprising in Iran, and especially the future ramifications if the brutal Regime there finally falls for this country internally as well as the ending of State funded terrorism in at least three other middle countries as well as for the neighbouring country of Iraq where Iran's prescence has been a huge negative for the stability and progress of that country. The implications for change in the Middle East if this happens are huge..

    That's not really true though.
    It has been widely reported on and was second lead on several BBC News programmes over the last couple of days.

    But beyond protests are widespread and continuing, and there are widespread violent clashes, it's quite hard for mainstream news to add further substance.

    They are reading the same social media posts that we are, and have no one on scene.

    If the regime topples, and pray it does, then it will dominate the news for some time.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 54,667
    Sandpit said:

    Eabhal said:

    Sandpit said:

    malcolmg said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    I think the politicians who stoked a climate of hysteria about the federal government enforcing immigration laws and encouraged people to stand in the way of ICE officers doing their jobs need to accept their share of responsibility for what happened.

    I wish the mods would ban this bot.
    I don't. I value WilliamGlenns alternative viewpoints, even when I don't agree with them.

    It's disappointing that a post personally abusing him for this got so many likes overnight. And I don't think that's to this site's credit.
    There are a few things here.

    William regularly cheerleads a president whose rhetoric is constantly suffused with both personal and general abuse.

    People are understandably angry when he seeks to justify what looks very like murder by a member of the largest and least trained coercive federal agency in history.

    I agree with those who say william should not be banned.

    But I am not going to pretend that he is not defending what is rapidly descending into fascism.
    If we ban William having already lost Leon this site's days representing all viewpoints would be over and it may as well be renamed LDbetting
    There is definitely something of a blind spot on this site when it comes to US politics. Trying to put across the other side frequently results in personal abuse in return. We should be able to debate without the hyperbole that affects many other sites.

    To be fair, this also represents the situation in the US itself, where the two sides are extremely polarised, consume totally different media, and often talk straight past each other while misrepresenting the opposing position.

    The mid-terms are likely to be a turnout war, both parties are historically unpopular.

    Edit: Yes the situation in Minnesota could get worse before it gets better, the population is absolutely furious at the fraud that’s been uncovered.
    Trying to defend what is a blatant murder is a pretty poor show though. You would have to be blind to be taken in.
    Personally I try and avoid commenting on incidents such as we saw yesterday. Far too many times has the video been carefully edited to show one particular point of view, or we see only the beginning or the end of a larger incident, with the full video showing a different story once the media has moved on.
    That's very sensible - and you should be piling on Trump for doing exactly that.
    I try and avoid “piling in” on anyone, but have no problem criticising Trump if he messes up. I genuinely don’t think much of him, but I also don’t think he’s Hitler.

    Top officials such as presidents and ministers probably get their first version of events passed up the chain from the police on the ground, rather than from watching CNN.

    It wouldn’t be a surprise to find out later that either we saw only the last few seconds of a much longer incident, or that a policeman messed up and reached for their gun too hastily. It’s not as if there isn’t a long history of both in the US.
    The video is clear.

    The driver waved for the ICE vehicle to go through, but instead they got out. One agent tried to pull her door open. She tried to turn away, the second agent fired 3 shots to her head and killed her.

    There is no context that would make this acceptable.

    Then Noem and Trump lied about her being a "domestic terrorist" and it being self defence. They didn't need to do that, they could have simply replied that the incident would be investigated.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,928
    WilliamGlenn is a fascist troll.
    Even by US “standards”, he is a fascist troll.
    However that is not itself grounds for a ban.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 46,238
    Sandpit said:

    malcolmg said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    I think the politicians who stoked a climate of hysteria about the federal government enforcing immigration laws and encouraged people to stand in the way of ICE officers doing their jobs need to accept their share of responsibility for what happened.

    I wish the mods would ban this bot.
    I don't. I value WilliamGlenns alternative viewpoints, even when I don't agree with them.

    It's disappointing that a post personally abusing him for this got so many likes overnight. And I don't think that's to this site's credit.
    There are a few things here.

    William regularly cheerleads a president whose rhetoric is constantly suffused with both personal and general abuse.

    People are understandably angry when he seeks to justify what looks very like murder by a member of the largest and least trained coercive federal agency in history.

    I agree with those who say william should not be banned.

    But I am not going to pretend that he is not defending what is rapidly descending into fascism.
    If we ban William having already lost Leon this site's days representing all viewpoints would be over and it may as well be renamed LDbetting
    There is definitely something of a blind spot on this site when it comes to US politics. Trying to put across the other side frequently results in personal abuse in return. We should be able to debate without the hyperbole that affects many other sites.

    To be fair, this also represents the situation in the US itself, where the two sides are extremely polarised, consume totally different media, and often talk straight past each other while misrepresenting the opposing position.

    The mid-terms are likely to be a turnout war, both parties are historically unpopular.

    Edit: Yes the situation in Minnesota could get worse before it gets better, the population is absolutely furious at the fraud that’s been uncovered.
    Trying to defend what is a blatant murder is a pretty poor show though. You would have to be blind to be taken in.
    Personally I try and avoid commenting on incidents such as we saw yesterday. Far too many times has the video been carefully edited to show one particular point of view, or we see only the beginning or the end of a larger incident, with the full video showing a different story once the media has moved on.
    How many minutes did it take after news broke of the Caracas fracas for you to call it a Maduro false flag op?
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,928
    Sandpit said:

    Eabhal said:

    Sandpit said:

    malcolmg said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    I think the politicians who stoked a climate of hysteria about the federal government enforcing immigration laws and encouraged people to stand in the way of ICE officers doing their jobs need to accept their share of responsibility for what happened.

    I wish the mods would ban this bot.
    I don't. I value WilliamGlenns alternative viewpoints, even when I don't agree with them.

    It's disappointing that a post personally abusing him for this got so many likes overnight. And I don't think that's to this site's credit.
    There are a few things here.

    William regularly cheerleads a president whose rhetoric is constantly suffused with both personal and general abuse.

    People are understandably angry when he seeks to justify what looks very like murder by a member of the largest and least trained coercive federal agency in history.

    I agree with those who say william should not be banned.

    But I am not going to pretend that he is not defending what is rapidly descending into fascism.
    If we ban William having already lost Leon this site's days representing all viewpoints would be over and it may as well be renamed LDbetting
    There is definitely something of a blind spot on this site when it comes to US politics. Trying to put across the other side frequently results in personal abuse in return. We should be able to debate without the hyperbole that affects many other sites.

    To be fair, this also represents the situation in the US itself, where the two sides are extremely polarised, consume totally different media, and often talk straight past each other while misrepresenting the opposing position.

    The mid-terms are likely to be a turnout war, both parties are historically unpopular.

    Edit: Yes the situation in Minnesota could get worse before it gets better, the population is absolutely furious at the fraud that’s been uncovered.
    Trying to defend what is a blatant murder is a pretty poor show though. You would have to be blind to be taken in.
    Personally I try and avoid commenting on incidents such as we saw yesterday. Far too many times has the video been carefully edited to show one particular point of view, or we see only the beginning or the end of a larger incident, with the full video showing a different story once the media has moved on.
    That's very sensible - and you should be piling on Trump for doing exactly that.
    I try and avoid “piling in” on anyone, but have no problem criticising Trump if he messes up. I genuinely don’t think much of him, but I also don’t think he’s Hitler.

    Top officials such as presidents and ministers probably get their first version of events passed up the chain from the police on the ground, rather than from watching CNN.

    It wouldn’t be a surprise to find out later that either we saw only the last few seconds of a much longer incident, or that a policeman messed up and reached for their gun too hastily. It’s not as if there isn’t a long history of both in the US.
    Trumpsplaining must be exhausting.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 48,730
    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    I think the politicians who stoked a climate of hysteria about the federal government enforcing immigration laws and encouraged people to stand in the way of ICE officers doing their jobs need to accept their share of responsibility for what happened.

    I wish the mods would ban this bot.
    I don't. I value WilliamGlenns alternative viewpoints, even when I don't agree with them.

    It's disappointing that a post personally abusing him for this got so many likes overnight. And I don't think that's to this site's credit.
    There are a few things here.

    William regularly cheerleads a president whose rhetoric is constantly suffused with both personal and general abuse.

    People are understandably angry when he seeks to justify what looks very like murder by a member of the largest and least trained coercive federal agency in history.

    I agree with those who say william should not be banned.

    But I am not going to pretend that he is not defending what is rapidly descending into fascism.
    If we ban William having already lost Leon this site's days representing all viewpoints would be over and it may as well be renamed LDbetting
    There's a tedious tendency for some of the right wing posters on here (not all but some) to cast themselves as free-thinking spirits being victimised for battling against a stultifying groupthink. This pretentious, self-regarding twaddle is only encouraged when one of their number is banned, so please let's not. There are, afaik, no site rules against puffing for Trump.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 68,729
    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    I think the politicians who stoked a climate of hysteria about the federal government enforcing immigration laws and encouraged people to stand in the way of ICE officers doing their jobs need to accept their share of responsibility for what happened.

    I wish the mods would ban this bot.
    I don't. I value WilliamGlenns alternative viewpoints, even when I don't agree with them.

    It's disappointing that a post personally abusing him for this got so many likes overnight. And I don't think that's to this site's credit.
    There are a few things here.

    William regularly cheerleads a president whose rhetoric is constantly suffused with both personal and general abuse.

    People are understandably angry when he seeks to justify what looks very like murder by a member of the largest and least trained coercive federal agency in history.

    I agree with those who say william should not be banned.

    But I am not going to pretend that he is not defending what is rapidly descending into fascism.
    If we ban William having already lost Leon this site's days representing all viewpoints would be over and it may as well be renamed LDbetting
    You're being a silly billy (again). LD betting? Apart from Casino and yourself, oh and Topping and Max and Bartholomew on the right, and Palmer and owls on the left. And malc, and Taz, both renowned friends of the LibDems... and too many others to mention.
    Try finding a committed Reform or Trump backer though if William left
    There are several, but not willing to do so publically as they don't want to be pillorried for defending the indefensible.

    I don't think WG should be banned, just mocked.
    He should not be banned but take the argument to him

    Or scroll past his posts
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 85,122
    edited January 8

    Scott_xP said:

    MelonB said:

    I try to avoid commentating on US purely domestic affairs on the basis it is a foreign country, it’s self-evidently no longer a normal democracy, we don’t comment on every extra-judicial killing in Myanmar or Iran or Egypt, and frankly America’s internal affairs take up way too much media bandwidth here in Europe.

    There is more than enough unsavoury US foreign policy that directly affects us and our allies to comment on.

    The US president leading a fascist state is a concern to everybody
    It is a concern but what is the right level of attention we should give to it?

    Can we change it?
    Can we stop (or reduce the chance of) it happening here?
    Does obsessive following and commentary improve or worsen our lives?

    The melon has a point.
    The nature of the government leading the world's most powerful nation, which until very recently we have relied on absolutely as an ally of many decades, is of obvious and continuing concern.

    I sincerely hope we can stop it happening here (and noting the mess with which democracy is being eroded is part of that).

    We obviously can't change what happens in the US, but if they are going to descend into fascism then we need to plan for that eventuality. And in any event they appear to be trying to undermine NATO

    And last but not least, their elections are the biggest political betting events going.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 85,122
    fitalass said:

    fitalass said:

    Surprised the media are not currently even glancing at the unfolding uprising in Iran, and especially the future ramifications if the brutal Regime there finally falls for this country internally as well as the ending of State funded terrorism in at least three other middle countries as well as for the neighbouring country of Iraq where Iran's prescence has been a huge negative for the stability and progress of that country. The implications for change in the Middle East if this happens are huge.

    In other local news from Aberdeenshire, I see a major incident was finally declared here, too little and too bloody late after the biggest heaviest dump of snow over a week in my living memory since the late 70s when we were snowed in for a week throughout the whole Spey valley when I was growing up in Aviemore and they had to resort to bringing in essential food supplies by helicopter!

    As with Storm Arwen four years ago, it finally took the media to suddenly notice the increasingly dire conditions for the North East in the days and weeks following it before that fecking SNP Government ever noticed or even acknowledged it never mind doing feck all to respond to it!! It should still be a badge of shame for the SNP Government at Holyrood that Boris Johnson in London was the first party Leader to asknowledge the hardship and reach out to the people in the North East of Scotland at that time. Like then, we just feel utterly ignored by this central belt focussed SNP Government at Holyrood, and again like then they have failed us as the enormity of this unfolding emergency should have had them reaching out to the Westminster Government for army back up to help the people of the North East. But the selfish sods would never of dream of doing that so they simple ignore and leave us to it up here.

    There have been people trapped in their homes since New Year and unable to get to the shops even for food essentials, a friend told me about a serious emergency two streets down from them yesterday where a resident needed an ambulance and it took the whole neighbourhood to clear their street of snow enough for the ambulance to get nearby access tp the patient and then they had to dig out the ambulance when it got stuck trying to leave to get them back onto the main route again so they could get the patient to Aberdeen!

    We finally got out of our driveway and lane yesterday after the brief overnight thaw and grabbed the chance to get to the nearest round 40 mile round trip supermarket despite local roads remaining extemely difficult, needs must! And then only to find there was not even a loaf bread to be had, luckily we managed to get milk, but the shelves were empty of many other usual fresh essential foods. And then we got home and the temperatures dropped again, and then the heavy snow started until the early hours...


    Apologies for errors. The schools in Aberdeenshire are closed again today for the fourth day due to the weather conditions, our bins were cancelled which meant that our main bins were not collected after being delayed already by Christmas by over three weeks, now told to wait for the next collection....!!

    But to add to the current situation, absolute tumbleweed from this useless SNP Government and their local MPs this week as they ignore serious Ministerial misconduct from one of their own Cabinet Ministers yet again while voting to penalise Ash Reagan doing far less while doing nothing proactive to help us here this last week! Its been a week, the UK media crews have now been up here reporting on the severe winter conditions for a couple of days as they finally noticed, where is John Swinney?!..
    Sympathies for both weather and uncollected rubbish.
    Oddly, Yorkshire seems to have escaped the worst of the weather, and my bins have been emptied.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,931
    MelonB said:

    Sandpit said:

    malcolmg said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    I think the politicians who stoked a climate of hysteria about the federal government enforcing immigration laws and encouraged people to stand in the way of ICE officers doing their jobs need to accept their share of responsibility for what happened.

    I wish the mods would ban this bot.
    I don't. I value WilliamGlenns alternative viewpoints, even when I don't agree with them.

    It's disappointing that a post personally abusing him for this got so many likes overnight. And I don't think that's to this site's credit.
    There are a few things here.

    William regularly cheerleads a president whose rhetoric is constantly suffused with both personal and general abuse.

    People are understandably angry when he seeks to justify what looks very like murder by a member of the largest and least trained coercive federal agency in history.

    I agree with those who say william should not be banned.

    But I am not going to pretend that he is not defending what is rapidly descending into fascism.
    If we ban William having already lost Leon this site's days representing all viewpoints would be over and it may as well be renamed LDbetting
    There is definitely something of a blind spot on this site when it comes to US politics. Trying to put across the other side frequently results in personal abuse in return. We should be able to debate without the hyperbole that affects many other sites.

    To be fair, this also represents the situation in the US itself, where the two sides are extremely polarised, consume totally different media, and often talk straight past each other while misrepresenting the opposing position.

    The mid-terms are likely to be a turnout war, both parties are historically unpopular.

    Edit: Yes the situation in Minnesota could get worse before it gets better, the population is absolutely furious at the fraud that’s been uncovered.
    Trying to defend what is a blatant murder is a pretty poor show though. You would have to be blind to be taken in.
    Personally I try and avoid commenting on incidents such as we saw yesterday. Far too many times has the video been carefully edited to show one particular point of view, or we see only the beginning or the end of a larger incident, with the full video showing a different story once the media has moved on.
    I try to avoid commentating on US purely domestic affairs on the basis it is a foreign country, it’s self-evidently no longer a normal democracy, we don’t comment on every extra-judicial killing in Myanmar or Iran or Egypt, and frankly America’s internal affairs take up way too much media bandwidth here in Europe.

    There is more than enough unsavoury US foreign policy that directly affects us and our allies to comment on.
    For as long as the US is (supposedly) our closest ally, I think it is absolutely right and necessary to comment on their internal descent into anarchy. None of the other countries you mention are allies and two of them at least are effectively military dictatorships. So I think it is perectly valid for both the media and ourselves to take an acute interest in what is happening in the US for far the will go the same way as Iran or Myanmar.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 36,319
    edited January 8
    ...

    I think the politicians who stoked a climate of hysteria about the federal government enforcing immigration laws and encouraged people to stand in the way of ICE officers doing their jobs need to accept their share of responsibility for what happened.

    I wish the mods would ban this bot.
    I don't. I value WilliamGlenns alternative viewpoints, even when I don't agree with them.

    It's disappointing that a post personally abusing him for this got so many likes overnight. And I don't think that's to this site's credit.
    If you saw a left leaning poster being as deliberately controversial regarding outrageous behaviour from left wing politicians as Mr Glenn is doing for Trump, you would be rightly outraged.

    His justification and misrepresentation of the masked ICE agent executing the Observer in Minnesota was a new low. His posts in this instance would have been best left unposted (granted, like most of mine).

    Mr Glenn is an articulate, intelligent and worthy poster when he is not shilling for Trump after some inexcusable horror has been inflicted on humanity.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 59,821
    Does anyone have the actual wording of the bet/small print?

    Would be interesting to see how they think, for future betting.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 26,399

    Does anyone have the actual wording of the bet/small print?

    Would be interesting to see how they think, for future betting.

    https://polymarket.com/event/us-x-venezuela-military-engagement-by

    This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military engagement between the military forces of the United States of America and Venezuela between August 21, and September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

    A "military engagement" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Venezuelan military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution; however, minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.

    Any U.S. military kinetic strike that impacts Venezuelan land territory will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.

    Missiles or drone strikes which are intercepted will not qualify regardless of whether they land on adversarial territory or cause damage. Similarly, surface-to-air missile strikes impacting adversarial territory will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution (although surface to air missiles fired at an adversarial military aircraft would qualify).

    Note: the U.S. Coast Guard is a branch of the U.S. Armed Forces; Venezuela’s Milicia Nacional Bolivariana (militia) is a “special component” of the Venezuelan National Bolivarian Armed Forces (FANB); and Venezuela’s Coast Guard (Comando de Guardacostas) is a component of the Venezuelan Navy (Armada Bolivariana) and thus part of the FANB.

    The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

    ---------

    Additional context

    Updated Dec 29

    Per market rules, a qualifying "military engagement" must take place "between the military forces of the United States of America and Venezuela." Operations carried out by nonmilitary intelligence agencies do not qualify. As of this update, there is no consensus of credible reporting indicating that a qualifying engagement or kinetic strike has occurred.

    We’re aware of the dispute on this market. If a clarification is to be issued, it will be at 5:00 PM ET on December 29. If no statement is issued at that time, then there will be no clarification by the Polymarket team. The orderbook will be cleared at 5:00 PM ET, regardless of whether a clarification is made.

    Language in this market has been updated for clarity
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 26,399

    Does anyone have the actual wording of the bet/small print?

    Would be interesting to see how they think, for future betting.

    https://polymarket.com/event/us-x-venezuela-military-engagement-by

    This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military engagement between the military forces of the United States of America and Venezuela between August 21, and September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

    A "military engagement" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between US and Venezuelan military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution; however, minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.

    Any U.S. military kinetic strike that impacts Venezuelan land territory will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.

    Missiles or drone strikes which are intercepted will not qualify regardless of whether they land on adversarial territory or cause damage. Similarly, surface-to-air missile strikes impacting adversarial territory will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution (although surface to air missiles fired at an adversarial military aircraft would qualify).

    Note: the U.S. Coast Guard is a branch of the U.S. Armed Forces; Venezuela’s Milicia Nacional Bolivariana (militia) is a “special component” of the Venezuelan National Bolivarian Armed Forces (FANB); and Venezuela’s Coast Guard (Comando de Guardacostas) is a component of the Venezuelan Navy (Armada Bolivariana) and thus part of the FANB.

    The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

    ---------

    Additional context

    Updated Dec 29

    Per market rules, a qualifying "military engagement" must take place "between the military forces of the United States of America and Venezuela." Operations carried out by nonmilitary intelligence agencies do not qualify. As of this update, there is no consensus of credible reporting indicating that a qualifying engagement or kinetic strike has occurred.

    We’re aware of the dispute on this market. If a clarification is to be issued, it will be at 5:00 PM ET on December 29. If no statement is issued at that time, then there will be no clarification by the Polymarket team. The orderbook will be cleared at 5:00 PM ET, regardless of whether a clarification is made.

    Language in this market has been updated for clarity
    Also note it is settled by votes of tokenholders so you can't foresee how they "think" in the same way you could with Betfair operations team for example.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 59,176

    Sandpit said:

    malcolmg said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    I think the politicians who stoked a climate of hysteria about the federal government enforcing immigration laws and encouraged people to stand in the way of ICE officers doing their jobs need to accept their share of responsibility for what happened.

    I wish the mods would ban this bot.
    I don't. I value WilliamGlenns alternative viewpoints, even when I don't agree with them.

    It's disappointing that a post personally abusing him for this got so many likes overnight. And I don't think that's to this site's credit.
    There are a few things here.

    William regularly cheerleads a president whose rhetoric is constantly suffused with both personal and general abuse.

    People are understandably angry when he seeks to justify what looks very like murder by a member of the largest and least trained coercive federal agency in history.

    I agree with those who say william should not be banned.

    But I am not going to pretend that he is not defending what is rapidly descending into fascism.
    If we ban William having already lost Leon this site's days representing all viewpoints would be over and it may as well be renamed LDbetting
    There is definitely something of a blind spot on this site when it comes to US politics. Trying to put across the other side frequently results in personal abuse in return. We should be able to debate without the hyperbole that affects many other sites.

    To be fair, this also represents the situation in the US itself, where the two sides are extremely polarised, consume totally different media, and often talk straight past each other while misrepresenting the opposing position.

    The mid-terms are likely to be a turnout war, both parties are historically unpopular.

    Edit: Yes the situation in Minnesota could get worse before it gets better, the population is absolutely furious at the fraud that’s been uncovered.
    Trying to defend what is a blatant murder is a pretty poor show though. You would have to be blind to be taken in.
    Personally I try and avoid commenting on incidents such as we saw yesterday. Far too many times has the video been carefully edited to show one particular point of view, or we see only the beginning or the end of a larger incident, with the full video showing a different story once the media has moved on.
    How many minutes did it take after news broke of the Caracas fracas for you to call it a Maduro false flag op?
    Well I clearly got that one spectacularly wrong, didn’t I!
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 57,256
    Sandpit said:

    Eabhal said:

    Sandpit said:

    malcolmg said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    I think the politicians who stoked a climate of hysteria about the federal government enforcing immigration laws and encouraged people to stand in the way of ICE officers doing their jobs need to accept their share of responsibility for what happened.

    I wish the mods would ban this bot.
    I don't. I value WilliamGlenns alternative viewpoints, even when I don't agree with them.

    It's disappointing that a post personally abusing him for this got so many likes overnight. And I don't think that's to this site's credit.
    There are a few things here.

    William regularly cheerleads a president whose rhetoric is constantly suffused with both personal and general abuse.

    People are understandably angry when he seeks to justify what looks very like murder by a member of the largest and least trained coercive federal agency in history.

    I agree with those who say william should not be banned.

    But I am not going to pretend that he is not defending what is rapidly descending into fascism.
    If we ban William having already lost Leon this site's days representing all viewpoints would be over and it may as well be renamed LDbetting
    There is definitely something of a blind spot on this site when it comes to US politics. Trying to put across the other side frequently results in personal abuse in return. We should be able to debate without the hyperbole that affects many other sites.

    To be fair, this also represents the situation in the US itself, where the two sides are extremely polarised, consume totally different media, and often talk straight past each other while misrepresenting the opposing position.

    The mid-terms are likely to be a turnout war, both parties are historically unpopular.

    Edit: Yes the situation in Minnesota could get worse before it gets better, the population is absolutely furious at the fraud that’s been uncovered.
    Trying to defend what is a blatant murder is a pretty poor show though. You would have to be blind to be taken in.
    Personally I try and avoid commenting on incidents such as we saw yesterday. Far too many times has the video been carefully edited to show one particular point of view, or we see only the beginning or the end of a larger incident, with the full video showing a different story once the media has moved on.
    That's very sensible - and you should be piling on Trump for doing exactly that.
    I try and avoid “piling in” on anyone, but have no problem criticising Trump if he messes up. I genuinely don’t think much of him, but I also don’t think he’s Hitler.

    Top officials such as presidents and ministers probably get their first version of events passed up the chain from the police on the ground, rather than from watching CNN.

    It wouldn’t be a surprise to find out later that either we saw only the last few seconds of a much longer incident, or that a policeman messed up and reached for their gun too hastily. It’s not as if there isn’t a long history of both in the US.
    Shame on PB's Dopey Donald supporters! :lol:
  • TazTaz Posts: 23,883
    malcolmg said:

    Eabhal said:

    malcolmg said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    I think the politicians who stoked a climate of hysteria about the federal government enforcing immigration laws and encouraged people to stand in the way of ICE officers doing their jobs need to accept their share of responsibility for what happened.

    I wish the mods would ban this bot.
    I don't. I value WilliamGlenns alternative viewpoints, even when I don't agree with them.

    It's disappointing that a post personally abusing him for this got so many likes overnight. And I don't think that's to this site's credit.
    There are a few things here.

    William regularly cheerleads a president whose rhetoric is constantly suffused with both personal and general abuse.

    People are understandably angry when he seeks to justify what looks very like murder by a member of the largest and least trained coercive federal agency in history.

    I agree with those who say william should not be banned.

    But I am not going to pretend that he is not defending what is rapidly descending into fascism.
    If we ban William having already lost Leon this site's days representing all viewpoints would be over and it may as well be renamed LDbetting
    There is definitely something of a blind spot on this site when it comes to US politics. Trying to put across the other side frequently results in personal abuse in return. We should be able to debate without the hyperbole that affects many other sites.

    To be fair, this also represents the situation in the US itself, where the two sides are extremely polarised, consume totally different media, and often talk straight past each other while misrepresenting the opposing position.

    The mid-terms are likely to be a turnout war, both parties are historically unpopular.

    Edit: Yes the situation in Minnesota could get worse before it gets better, the population is absolutely furious at the fraud that’s been uncovered.
    Trying to defend what is a blatant murder is a pretty poor show though. You would have to be blind to be taken in.
    Yes - it's perfectly possible to explain that many Americans will support this kind of thing (unidentifiable federal agents storming into cities and killing US citizens), without actually espousing those views yourself.

    Posters like Roger get plenty of personal abuse for suggesting mad stuff from the left. And plenty of people get eye-watering abuse from yourself for even suggesting sensible things like taking your State Pension away. Not sure why williamglenn should be protected from the same - particularly if he's just being a troll, as I suspect.
    You are far worse than williamglen with your deep seated hatred of pensioners, wishing to impoverish them whilst living high on the hog. No doubt from the public teat as well, you got your Australia tickets booked yet, thought not. As long as it is not illegal it would be rather silly to ban people because of bleeding heart liberals getting their panties in a bunch.
    Not just pensioners either Malc. Car drivers, the hospitality industry, oil and gas industry, the working class taking a summer holiday abroad. There’s a long and not too distinguished list of them.

    Dunno what job he does but it clearly allows him to spend most of the day posting here too.

    Happy to take pensions away from people who have paid into this contributions based benefit but also happy to hose money at the economically inactive to sit at home all day. 🤷‍♂️
  • TazTaz Posts: 23,883
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    malcolmg said:

    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Nigelb said:

    I think the politicians who stoked a climate of hysteria about the federal government enforcing immigration laws and encouraged people to stand in the way of ICE officers doing their jobs need to accept their share of responsibility for what happened.

    I wish the mods would ban this bot.
    I don't. I value WilliamGlenns alternative viewpoints, even when I don't agree with them.

    It's disappointing that a post personally abusing him for this got so many likes overnight. And I don't think that's to this site's credit.
    There are a few things here.

    William regularly cheerleads a president whose rhetoric is constantly suffused with both personal and general abuse.

    People are understandably angry when he seeks to justify what looks very like murder by a member of the largest and least trained coercive federal agency in history.

    I agree with those who say william should not be banned.

    But I am not going to pretend that he is not defending what is rapidly descending into fascism.
    If we ban William having already lost Leon this site's days representing all viewpoints would be over and it may as well be renamed LDbetting
    There is definitely something of a blind spot on this site when it comes to US politics. Trying to put across the other side frequently results in personal abuse in return. We should be able to debate without the hyperbole that affects many other sites.

    To be fair, this also represents the situation in the US itself, where the two sides are extremely polarised, consume totally different media, and often talk straight past each other while misrepresenting the opposing position.

    The mid-terms are likely to be a turnout war, both parties are historically unpopular.

    Edit: Yes the situation in Minnesota could get worse before it gets better, the population is absolutely furious at the fraud that’s been uncovered.
    Trying to defend what is a blatant murder is a pretty poor show though. You would have to be blind to be taken in.
    Personally I try and avoid commenting on incidents such as we saw yesterday. Far too many times has the video been carefully edited to show one particular point of view, or we see only the beginning or the end of a larger incident, with the full video showing a different story once the media has moved on.
    How many minutes did it take after news broke of the Caracas fracas for you to call it a Maduro false flag op?
    Well I clearly got that one spectacularly wrong, didn’t I!
    You did, doesn’t stop this nerdish obsessive bringing it up every day either 😂
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 18,884
    Rachel Reeves must be doing something right.

    UK Labour force participation saw a near record bump in 2025.

    One of the reasons behind this was a near record rise in female participation across the UK workforce. That comes amid expanded early years government childcare provision

    ....

    Gilts still a screaming buy, according to Goldman Sachs's cross-asset forecasts. Sees 10-year UK bonds outperforming everything bar the S&P 500 over the next six months
    .


    https://bsky.app/profile/chriswhittall.bsky.social
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