Kemi’s improving performance – politicalbetting.com
Kemi’s improving performance – politicalbetting.com
Which of big 3 leaders wins public’s award for most improved? ?Most think Starmer has got worse over last 6 months than better 58%-11% ??They are also more likely to say Farage has got worse than improved 32%-20%, but plurality say neither? But by 27%-17% voters are more… pic.twitter.com/0AuJJFt6qJ
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Word missing there?
On the substantive point, am I right in thinking as well that Farage is at the same time the oldest and the least experienced of the four major party leaders? He's not likely to be improving now as he ages and he's never been in cabinet.
What will they ban next? Perhaps they'll ban me from burning £50 notes in front of homeless people.
Boiling live lobsters to be banned in Labour crackdown
Restaurateurs and seafood industry criticise new animal welfare strategy
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/12/22/boiling-live-lobsters-to-be-banned-in-labour-crackdown/
Blair and Cameron had never been in government before they became PM.
Cameron and Blair had both been Leaders of the Opposition. Farage hasn't even done that.
Might be hard to say how well they're doing if some locals are cancelled by Labour for reasons that are... questionable.
Running Reform close would be a valuable bonus.
They need dozens of people in shadow ministerial roles, and a whole group of researchers and policy wonks behind them.
As the election draws closer, they need to have ideas about finance, health, transport, and a dozen other policy areas that aren’t immigration and asylum.
Even Trump isn’t planning on cancelling mid-term elections.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cwyljpjwy2zo
Also:
"The Electoral Commission, which oversees elections in the UK, has also expressed concern.
The watchdog's chief executive Vijay Rangarajan said there was "a clear conflict of interest in asking existing councils to decide how long it will be before they are answerable to voters"."
My logic is flawless and irrefutable.
The Office for National Statistics ranks the role as a ‘lower supervisory and technical occupation’, while police officers on half the salary are ‘middle class’
https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/train-drivers-working-class-salaries-ons-fql8dbhjm
I know technically the Liberal Democrats didn’t exist until 1988, but…
What a surprise.
It's funny how many in the Labour party haven't forgiven the Lib Dems for the coalition.
I have a Labour activist friend who still wants Nick Clegg charged with treason. He had voted Lib Dems five general elections in a row to keep the Tories out then absolutely lost it when the coalition was formed.
But, that will be overshadowed by Labour, who are defending the majority of the seats last fought in 2022, in London boroughs, and the Mets. Re-warding means half the Met boroughs have all-out elections, accentuating Labour’s headline losses.
Or NFWNBPM??
Luckily, Labour don't have anything else to deal with. Certainly not a difficult economy they keep on making worse with political incompetence.
X
Stephen Daisley@JournoStephen
I’m not a Kemi Kultist like you but this is one of the few areas where I have actual insight. Two ministers were pivotal to the s.35 order that spiked the GRR Bill and precipitated Sturgeon’s resignation: Scottish Secretary Alister Jack and Badenoch. KB has been 💯 on this issue.
Said it before, Kemi had a tough gig inheriting a fractured Conservative party in a far worse shape after such a brutal GE defeat than Cameron and Osborne inherited in 2005 in Opposition, and lets face the party was stagnating in core box territory then with still less than 200 MPs after two bruising GEs following their then huge defeat in 1997! I remember being really impressed with Cameron even before the 2005 GE, ditto Ruth Davidson when she came on the scene up here in Scotland when she fought that by-election in Glasgow even before she entered Holyrood. I voted for Cameron and Davidson in the subequent Leadership contests and the rest is history. And I remain confident I made the right choice voting for Kemi last year.
There was not a cats chance in hell that any new leader of the Conservative party was going to get a fair hearing from the public after such a monumental defeat a year ago, the public were simple never going to be interested in what any new leader had to say. So the idea that ANY new Conservative leader, and especially a Farage mini me was going to fair any better is for the birds! But even more crazy, had the party panicked and tried to replace Kemi so soon after that GE with anyone else it would simple have driven home the toxic issues that saw the party suffer such a humiliating defeat in 2024.
Kemi inherited the worse political leadership gig last year, but like Cameron and Ruth Davidson she stuck to her guns and set her own path and she has grown into the job as Leader despite the internal and external critics grumbling from the sidelines. And the fact that her own personal ratings like Cameron and Davidson now show a more significant improvement than the party's polling tells you thanks to her like them, its her current performance which is definitely driving the fact that the public are now starting to take notice and are willing to give her and the party another look in an ever widening field of political party/leader contenders.
I would bet on Kemi if given the chance to stay the course until the next GE up against Nigel Farage who already seems to be going off the boil when it comes to the tough day to day hard grind of Opposition politics when the party in Government has a huge majority and you are literally a one man show with a handful of MPs even if GB news are desperately trying to do the heavy lifting for you. It will be interesting to see how that news channel deals with a renewed Conservative centre right party if the one man show that is Nigel Farage's Reform party loses momentum in the media and the polls next year.
More than usual, perhaps.
It only took 20 years. The FBI labeling the case as a “child prostitution” case back in 2005 — and the Palm Beach state attorney telling these victims they could be arrested themselves (for prostitution) was/is unforgivable. Congress must investigate who benefited (besides Epstein) from the whitewashing of this crime.
https://x.com/jkbjournalist/status/2003162097710952507
On which subject, the plan to ban trail hounds.
In Cumberland and Westmorland there is a long tradition of trail hound racing which has never had any connection with hunting animals, has always used scent trails and doesn't do red jackets and stirrup cups and lives in a world closer to whippets than Anthony Trollope novels. This should not be banned.
Westminster Voting Intention:
REF: 25% (-3)
LAB: 20% (+2)
CON: 19% (+2)
LDM: 15% (+1)
GRN: 15% (-2)
SNP: 3% (-1)
Via @YouGov, On 21-22 December,
Changes w/ 14-15 December.
https://x.com/electpoliticsuk/status/2003369188841443503?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
"Tuition fees" is a common jibe even now. (Tuition fees was a Tory policy the Lib Dems agreed to in coalition)
He’s allowed it to fester when he could have shut it down quickly.
Compare on contrast to the Tit hypnotist who always goes on full attack when in defence against various issues and, usually, they subside.
Quite frankly what a child said 50 years ago shouldn’t define them now. But he has handled it poorly, and the media may be out to get him but that’s politics and no different for anyone else.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#/media/File:Opinion_polling_graph_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election_(post-2024).svg
Maybe the shine is coming off Farage and hopefully it will continue
Unfortunately for the lobster, and it probably says more about my human morality, but I can't get worked up about it either.
(I'd want at least 20:1 for a Tory majority.)
See the Israeli/Jews are responsible for child abuse/framing some of the GOP.
My brain is in holiday mode so I don’t have the energy to write a thread on it this side of the new year.
It's the same playbook for the last 20 years or so, big up the "man of the people" Farage party, drawing the "socially conservative" vote away from Labour and the Conservatives further right, then dump Farage for the Conservatives.
I'm also on that at a higher price, but at current prices prefer the majority/PM myself, if and when they get momentum vs Reform the press and donor money will accelerate that imo. On the PM I expect Starmer will be replaced closer to the election, but if he isn't then it will typically be a sign that Reform are no longer miles ahead and things are tightening up which again imo, favours the Tories.
5.3 for Con most seats
11.5 for Con majority.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/event/33407388/multi-market?marketIds=1.230583324
FWIW, I think their complicity in trying to bury this to protect Trump will be one of the things which will doom any Republican candidate (no one who repudiates MAGA will get the nomination) in 2028.
Is a juicy steak (let’s say 1% of a cow), or better still a chunk of braised whale (0.001%?), more ethical than a prawn cocktail (15 whole beings) or plate of whitebait (30 lives, ended right there)?
Useful starters for 10: David Hume's view that all morality is based on sentiment or emotion; and the urban/woke/left view of the rights of the rat.
Not really sure why we need the release of some files to understand his proclivity.
PS - Damn, thats another 5 years before I can go to the states.
MAGA has long been in a state of cognitive dissonance as President Trump has betrayed the isolationists by intervening in the Middle East and is now threatening Venezuela, and has resiled from his campaign pledge to release the Epstein files in full.
On Venezuela, it looks like Trump, long anti-war himself, unlike the GOP neocons, hopes a naval blockade will bring down the Maduro regime. If or when this happens, I'd expect a lot of American aid to restore the economy quickly and anything not nailed down handed to US corporations. Cuba is probably not in the crosshairs but there is collateral economic damage so who knows?
Can this be linked to the BBC being sued by him?
Now, the way the Trump White House switched so quickly and unexpectedly from releasing the lot to almost nothing does make me think they did discover a hidden bombshell very late on, but so far it's not gone off, and is most unlikely to involve Trump himself.
One theory is that the person holding everything together in a relatively moderate fashion was Charlie Kirk.
The unknown is whether this trend will be reinforced by campaigning for the May elections, or if that will interrupt it.
Also, given the personal ambitions of many of those involved, what are the chances Kemi gets ditched after losing lots of councillors in May anyway?
Added to which, are the attacks on Farage’s past, and unsavoury conduct from some Reform candidates.
As against that, Reform are still storming ahead in local elections, and now retaining the seats that their councillors vacate. They could well gain another 1,000 seats in May.
But in the US they're now onto the "revolution eating itself" stage of proceedings, where fighting the left is no longer the most important thing, but fighting each other to gain most of the spoils of victory is. This antisemitism has re-emerged as an identifier on the isolationism axis, I think, or just as a useful scapegoat.
I think Wales is still in doubt though. If Reform do come further off the boil then the big story might be a Plaid victory in Wales, rather than Reform doing very well there.
They've sent an email to members saying "Happy Holidays".
Webb has always been a Trump apologist, verging on fanboi; Robinson not so much.
They’re being hit on four fronts.
In Muslim-majority wards, they’re shedding votes to Your Party.
In trendy urban wards, they’re losing to Greens and Lib Dem’s.
In well-heeled wards, they’re losing to the Conservatives.
And in working class/Red Wall wards, they’re losing to Reform.
They could easily lose 1,500 seats in May.
Given Trump's known proclivities, and their long association, it seems entirely possible.
The new kids on the block are the Greens....
YouGov suggests the insurgent parties are not going to have an easy time against the "old guard".
Looking at Lab/Con/LD vs Ref/Green that's a split of 54-40 on YouGov and 53-40 on the latest More In Common while Find Out Now is reversed at 43-50 - in July 2024 it was 69-21 so a sizeable swing to Reform/Green. If anything, Find Out Now is the outlier on that perspective.
I still wonder if these polls are accuarately reflecting some of the voting patterns in Inner London and other cities - the various pro-
Palestine Independent parties did well in 2024 (though not everywhere) and it wouldn't surprise me if their supporters weren't as well profiled in polling sampling and methodology as those of other parties.