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Kemi’s improving performance – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,855
edited 7:16AM in General
Kemi’s improving performance – politicalbetting.com

Which of big 3 leaders wins public’s award for most improved? ?Most think Starmer has got worse over last 6 months than better 58%-11% ??They are also more likely to say Farage has got worse than improved 32%-20%, but plurality say neither? But by 27%-17% voters are more… pic.twitter.com/0AuJJFt6qJ

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  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 76,571
    edited 7:21AM
    Based on this polling I wouldn’t be surprised the Tories ahead of Reform at some point in quarter one of 2026, if present trends hold, not consistently but on an outlier basis.

    Word missing there?

    On the substantive point, am I right in thinking as well that Farage is at the same time the oldest and the least experienced of the four major party leaders? He's not likely to be improving now as he ages and he's never been in cabinet.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 125,331
    ydoethur said:

    Based on this polling I wouldn’t be surprised the Tories ahead of Reform at some point in quarter one of 2026, if present trends hold, not consistently but on an outlier basis. Word missing there?

    Two words in fact.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 125,331
    This is such utter woke nonsense from Labour, attacking the hospitality sector once more.

    What will they ban next? Perhaps they'll ban me from burning £50 notes in front of homeless people.

    Boiling live lobsters to be banned in Labour crackdown

    Restaurateurs and seafood industry criticise new animal welfare strategy


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/12/22/boiling-live-lobsters-to-be-banned-in-labour-crackdown/
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 125,331
    ydoethur said:

    Based on this polling I wouldn’t be surprised the Tories ahead of Reform at some point in quarter one of 2026, if present trends hold, not consistently but on an outlier basis.

    Word missing there?

    On the substantive point, am I right in thinking as well that Farage is at the same time the oldest and the least experienced of the four major party leaders? He's not likely to be improving now as he ages and he's never been in cabinet.

    No, Starmer is about 18 months older than Farage.

    Blair and Cameron had never been in government before they became PM.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 76,571

    ydoethur said:

    Based on this polling I wouldn’t be surprised the Tories ahead of Reform at some point in quarter one of 2026, if present trends hold, not consistently but on an outlier basis.

    Word missing there?

    On the substantive point, am I right in thinking as well that Farage is at the same time the oldest and the least experienced of the four major party leaders? He's not likely to be improving now as he ages and he's never been in cabinet.

    No, Starmer is about 18 months older than Farage.

    Blair and Cameron had never been in government before they became PM.
    Fair enough on the first point.

    Cameron and Blair had both been Leaders of the Opposition. Farage hasn't even done that.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 54,494
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Based on this polling I wouldn’t be surprised the Tories ahead of Reform at some point in quarter one of 2026, if present trends hold, not consistently but on an outlier basis.

    Word missing there?

    On the substantive point, am I right in thinking as well that Farage is at the same time the oldest and the least experienced of the four major party leaders? He's not likely to be improving now as he ages and he's never been in cabinet.

    No, Starmer is about 18 months older than Farage.

    Blair and Cameron had never been in government before they became PM.
    Fair enough on the first point.

    Cameron and Blair had both been Leaders of the Opposition. Farage hasn't even done that.
    Indeed he quite often skives off Parliament. I think he finds it boring because its not all about him.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 53,625
    edited 7:31AM
    While Labour has the most to lose, it’s hard to see the local elections being that great for the Tories given they are batting off a 2022 position when they were at 35% in National VI and pulled in 30% of the local election NEV. Today they’re nearer 20% in the polls (or less!) and many of their councillors will face challenges from both right and left.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 63,338
    IanB2 said:

    While Labour has the most to lose, it’s hard to see the local elections being that great for the Tories given they are batting off a 2022 position when they were at 35% in National VI and pulled in 30% of the local election NEV. Today they’re nearer 20% in the polls (or less!) and many of their councillors will face challenges from both right and left.

    Good morning, everyone.

    Might be hard to say how well they're doing if some locals are cancelled by Labour for reasons that are... questionable.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 76,571
    edited 7:39AM

    IanB2 said:

    While Labour has the most to lose, it’s hard to see the local elections being that great for the Tories given they are batting off a 2022 position when they were at 35% in National VI and pulled in 30% of the local election NEV. Today they’re nearer 20% in the polls (or less!) and many of their councillors will face challenges from both right and left.

    Good morning, everyone.

    Might be hard to say how well they're doing if some locals are cancelled by Labour for reasons that are... questionable.
    The Senedd elections will probably be the best indicator given the voting system they will be using. If the Tories finish ahead of Labour they should be very happy indeed. At the moment I'd say that's a 10/1 shot.

    Running Reform close would be a valuable bonus.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 58,876
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Based on this polling I wouldn’t be surprised the Tories ahead of Reform at some point in quarter one of 2026, if present trends hold, not consistently but on an outlier basis.

    Word missing there?

    On the substantive point, am I right in thinking as well that Farage is at the same time the oldest and the least experienced of the four major party leaders? He's not likely to be improving now as he ages and he's never been in cabinet.

    No, Starmer is about 18 months older than Farage.

    Blair and Cameron had never been in government before they became PM.
    Fair enough on the first point.

    Cameron and Blair had both been Leaders of the Opposition. Farage hasn't even done that.
    Farage needs to spend that big donation he got the other week setting up the same sort of machine the Tories have as the official Opposition, both from Short Money and their own HQ team.

    They need dozens of people in shadow ministerial roles, and a whole group of researchers and policy wonks behind them.

    As the election draws closer, they need to have ideas about finance, health, transport, and a dozen other policy areas that aren’t immigration and asylum.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 58,876

    IanB2 said:

    While Labour has the most to lose, it’s hard to see the local elections being that great for the Tories given they are batting off a 2022 position when they were at 35% in National VI and pulled in 30% of the local election NEV. Today they’re nearer 20% in the polls (or less!) and many of their councillors will face challenges from both right and left.

    Good morning, everyone.

    Might be hard to say how well they're doing if some locals are cancelled by Labour for reasons that are... questionable.
    ‘Questionable’ is something of an understatement.

    Even Trump isn’t planning on cancelling mid-term elections.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 63,338
    edited 7:47AM
    Sandpit said:

    IanB2 said:

    While Labour has the most to lose, it’s hard to see the local elections being that great for the Tories given they are batting off a 2022 position when they were at 35% in National VI and pulled in 30% of the local election NEV. Today they’re nearer 20% in the polls (or less!) and many of their councillors will face challenges from both right and left.

    Good morning, everyone.

    Might be hard to say how well they're doing if some locals are cancelled by Labour for reasons that are... questionable.
    ‘Questionable’ is something of an understatement.

    Even Trump isn’t planning on cancelling mid-term elections.
    Those well-known pro-Conservatives the, er, Lib Dems are also less than delighted the Government has decided to postpone numerous elections:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cwyljpjwy2zo

    Also:

    "The Electoral Commission, which oversees elections in the UK, has also expressed concern.

    The watchdog's chief executive Vijay Rangarajan said there was "a clear conflict of interest in asking existing councils to decide how long it will be before they are answerable to voters"."
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 125,331
    edited 7:57AM

    Sandpit said:

    IanB2 said:

    While Labour has the most to lose, it’s hard to see the local elections being that great for the Tories given they are batting off a 2022 position when they were at 35% in National VI and pulled in 30% of the local election NEV. Today they’re nearer 20% in the polls (or less!) and many of their councillors will face challenges from both right and left.

    Good morning, everyone.

    Might be hard to say how well they're doing if some locals are cancelled by Labour for reasons that are... questionable.
    ‘Questionable’ is something of an understatement.

    Even Trump isn’t planning on cancelling mid-term elections.
    Those well-known pro-Conservatives the, er, Lib Dems
    At Westminster the Lib Dems have only ever gone into coalition with the Tories, never with Labour, so the Lib Dems are pro-Conservatives.

    My logic is flawless and irrefutable.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 125,331
    Train drivers on up to £80,000 a year categorised as ‘working class’

    The Office for National Statistics ranks the role as a ‘lower supervisory and technical occupation’, while police officers on half the salary are ‘middle class’


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/train-drivers-working-class-salaries-ons-fql8dbhjm
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 4,064

    Sandpit said:

    IanB2 said:

    While Labour has the most to lose, it’s hard to see the local elections being that great for the Tories given they are batting off a 2022 position when they were at 35% in National VI and pulled in 30% of the local election NEV. Today they’re nearer 20% in the polls (or less!) and many of their councillors will face challenges from both right and left.

    Good morning, everyone.

    Might be hard to say how well they're doing if some locals are cancelled by Labour for reasons that are... questionable.
    ‘Questionable’ is something of an understatement.

    Even Trump isn’t planning on cancelling mid-term elections.
    Those well-known pro-Conservatives the, er, Lib Dems
    At Westminster the Lib Dems have only ever gone into coalition with the Tories, never with Labour, so the Lib Dems are pro-Conservatives.

    My logic is flawless and irrefutable.
    Strange man...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 76,571

    Sandpit said:

    IanB2 said:

    While Labour has the most to lose, it’s hard to see the local elections being that great for the Tories given they are batting off a 2022 position when they were at 35% in National VI and pulled in 30% of the local election NEV. Today they’re nearer 20% in the polls (or less!) and many of their councillors will face challenges from both right and left.

    Good morning, everyone.

    Might be hard to say how well they're doing if some locals are cancelled by Labour for reasons that are... questionable.
    ‘Questionable’ is something of an understatement.

    Even Trump isn’t planning on cancelling mid-term elections.
    Those well-known pro-Conservatives the, er, Lib Dems
    At Westminster the Lib Dems have only ever gone into coalition with the Tories, never with Labour, so the Lib Dems are pro-Conservatives.

    My logic is flawless and irrefutable.
    1915, 1931 and 1940 all say hello (as to a lesser extent does the Lib/Lab pact).

    I know technically the Liberal Democrats didn’t exist until 1988, but…
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 24,042

    Sandpit said:

    IanB2 said:

    While Labour has the most to lose, it’s hard to see the local elections being that great for the Tories given they are batting off a 2022 position when they were at 35% in National VI and pulled in 30% of the local election NEV. Today they’re nearer 20% in the polls (or less!) and many of their councillors will face challenges from both right and left.

    Good morning, everyone.

    Might be hard to say how well they're doing if some locals are cancelled by Labour for reasons that are... questionable.
    ‘Questionable’ is something of an understatement.

    Even Trump isn’t planning on cancelling mid-term elections.
    Those well-known pro-Conservatives the, er, Lib Dems are also less than delighted the Government has decided to postpone numerous elections:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cwyljpjwy2zo

    Also:

    "The Electoral Commission, which oversees elections in the UK, has also expressed concern.

    The watchdog's chief executive Vijay Rangarajan said there was "a clear conflict of interest in asking existing councils to decide how long it will be before they are answerable to voters"."
    Turkeys postpone Christmas.

    What a surprise.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 125,331
    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    IanB2 said:

    While Labour has the most to lose, it’s hard to see the local elections being that great for the Tories given they are batting off a 2022 position when they were at 35% in National VI and pulled in 30% of the local election NEV. Today they’re nearer 20% in the polls (or less!) and many of their councillors will face challenges from both right and left.

    Good morning, everyone.

    Might be hard to say how well they're doing if some locals are cancelled by Labour for reasons that are... questionable.
    ‘Questionable’ is something of an understatement.

    Even Trump isn’t planning on cancelling mid-term elections.
    Those well-known pro-Conservatives the, er, Lib Dems
    At Westminster the Lib Dems have only ever gone into coalition with the Tories, never with Labour, so the Lib Dems are pro-Conservatives.

    My logic is flawless and irrefutable.
    1915, 1931 and 1940 all say hello (as to a lesser extent does the Lib/Lab pact).

    I know technically the Liberal Democrats didn’t exist until 1988, but…
    My comment remains true.

    It's funny how many in the Labour party haven't forgiven the Lib Dems for the coalition.

    I have a Labour activist friend who still wants Nick Clegg charged with treason. He had voted Lib Dems five general elections in a row to keep the Tories out then absolutely lost it when the coalition was formed.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,734

    Sandpit said:

    IanB2 said:

    While Labour has the most to lose, it’s hard to see the local elections being that great for the Tories given they are batting off a 2022 position when they were at 35% in National VI and pulled in 30% of the local election NEV. Today they’re nearer 20% in the polls (or less!) and many of their councillors will face challenges from both right and left.

    Good morning, everyone.

    Might be hard to say how well they're doing if some locals are cancelled by Labour for reasons that are... questionable.
    ‘Questionable’ is something of an understatement.

    Even Trump isn’t planning on cancelling mid-term elections.
    Those well-known pro-Conservatives the, er, Lib Dems
    At Westminster the Lib Dems have only ever gone into coalition with the Tories, never with Labour, so the Lib Dems are pro-Conservatives.

    My logic is flawless and irrefutable.
    The Tories have gone into coalition with Labour and the Lib Dems, so they are indiscriminately pro-left.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 40,154
    The local elections can only be bad for the Conservatives, given that their NEV will be well down on the 38% they won in 2021, (some counties are up for election), and the 30% they won in 2022.

    But, that will be overshadowed by Labour, who are defending the majority of the seats last fought in 2022, in London boroughs, and the Mets. Re-warding means half the Met boroughs have all-out elections, accentuating Labour’s headline losses.

  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 17,662
    Andy_JS said:

    Any Karl Jenkins fans on here?

    Yes.., but are we talking his early work with Soft Machine or his later orchestral compositions?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 34,357
    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Based on this polling I wouldn’t be surprised the Tories ahead of Reform at some point in quarter one of 2026, if present trends hold, not consistently but on an outlier basis.

    Word missing there?

    On the substantive point, am I right in thinking as well that Farage is at the same time the oldest and the least experienced of the four major party leaders? He's not likely to be improving now as he ages and he's never been in cabinet.

    No, Starmer is about 18 months older than Farage.

    Blair and Cameron had never been in government before they became PM.
    Fair enough on the first point.

    Cameron and Blair had both been Leaders of the Opposition. Farage hasn't even done that.
    Indeed he quite often skives off Parliament. I think he finds it boring because its not all about him.
    This has recently set me wondering if Nigel Farage might bail soon. He is rarely in the Commons or in Clacton, and does not even seem to have much to say about Streeting or Lammy advocating customs unions with the EU, an issue you'd think would be mother's milk to him. Is he still interested in politics? (That said, maybe he is just under the weather as there are some nasty bugs doing the rounds.)
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,847

    This is such utter woke nonsense from Labour, attacking the hospitality sector once more.

    What will they ban next? Perhaps they'll ban me from burning £50 notes in front of homeless people.

    Boiling live lobsters to be banned in Labour crackdown

    Restaurateurs and seafood industry criticise new animal welfare strategy


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/12/22/boiling-live-lobsters-to-be-banned-in-labour-crackdown/

    This, and the trail hunting, is core vote stuff.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,965

    This is such utter woke nonsense from Labour, attacking the hospitality sector once more.

    What will they ban next? Perhaps they'll ban me from burning £50 notes in front of homeless people.

    Boiling live lobsters to be banned in Labour crackdown

    Restaurateurs and seafood industry criticise new animal welfare strategy


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/12/22/boiling-live-lobsters-to-be-banned-in-labour-crackdown/

    I know a few people involved with animal welfare who are quite pleased by Labour ambition in this area. Nick Palmer probably knows a lot more.

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,847
    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Based on this polling I wouldn’t be surprised the Tories ahead of Reform at some point in quarter one of 2026, if present trends hold, not consistently but on an outlier basis.

    Word missing there?

    On the substantive point, am I right in thinking as well that Farage is at the same time the oldest and the least experienced of the four major party leaders? He's not likely to be improving now as he ages and he's never been in cabinet.

    No, Starmer is about 18 months older than Farage.

    Blair and Cameron had never been in government before they became PM.
    Fair enough on the first point.

    Cameron and Blair had both been Leaders of the Opposition. Farage hasn't even done that.
    Farage needs to spend that big donation he got the other week setting up the same sort of machine the Tories have as the official Opposition, both from Short Money and their own HQ team.

    They need dozens of people in shadow ministerial roles, and a whole group of researchers and policy wonks behind them.

    As the election draws closer, they need to have ideas about finance, health, transport, and a dozen other policy areas that aren’t immigration and asylum.
    NFICIPM?

    Or NFWNBPM??
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 63,338

    This is such utter woke nonsense from Labour, attacking the hospitality sector once more.

    What will they ban next? Perhaps they'll ban me from burning £50 notes in front of homeless people.

    Boiling live lobsters to be banned in Labour crackdown

    Restaurateurs and seafood industry criticise new animal welfare strategy


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/12/22/boiling-live-lobsters-to-be-banned-in-labour-crackdown/

    This, and the trail hunting, is core vote stuff.
    Yep, the trail hunting in particular.

    Luckily, Labour don't have anything else to deal with. Certainly not a difficult economy they keep on making worse with political incompetence.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 17,662

    Train drivers on up to £80,000 a year categorised as ‘working class’

    The Office for National Statistics ranks the role as a ‘lower supervisory and technical occupation’, while police officers on half the salary are ‘middle class’


    https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/train-drivers-working-class-salaries-ons-fql8dbhjm

    That’s the, er… beauty of the British class system. It was never simply about money, but about role.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 34,357
    edited 8:32AM
    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Based on this polling I wouldn’t be surprised the Tories ahead of Reform at some point in quarter one of 2026, if present trends hold, not consistently but on an outlier basis.

    Word missing there?

    On the substantive point, am I right in thinking as well that Farage is at the same time the oldest and the least experienced of the four major party leaders? He's not likely to be improving now as he ages and he's never been in cabinet.

    No, Starmer is about 18 months older than Farage.

    Blair and Cameron had never been in government before they became PM.
    Fair enough on the first point.

    Cameron and Blair had both been Leaders of the Opposition. Farage hasn't even done that.
    Farage needs to spend that big donation he got the other week setting up the same sort of machine the Tories have as the official Opposition, both from Short Money and their own HQ team.

    They need dozens of people in shadow ministerial roles, and a whole group of researchers and policy wonks behind them.

    As the election draws closer, they need to have ideas about finance, health, transport, and a dozen other policy areas that aren’t immigration and asylum.
    Former Conservative big thinker Danny Kruger is supposed to be handling this policy development for Reform.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,641
    From my favourite Scottish journalist and sketchwriter Stephen Daisley..

    X
    Stephen Daisley@JournoStephen
    I’m not a Kemi Kultist like you but this is one of the few areas where I have actual insight. Two ministers were pivotal to the s.35 order that spiked the GRR Bill and precipitated Sturgeon’s resignation: Scottish Secretary Alister Jack and Badenoch. KB has been 💯 on this issue.

    Said it before, Kemi had a tough gig inheriting a fractured Conservative party in a far worse shape after such a brutal GE defeat than Cameron and Osborne inherited in 2005 in Opposition, and lets face the party was stagnating in core box territory then with still less than 200 MPs after two bruising GEs following their then huge defeat in 1997! I remember being really impressed with Cameron even before the 2005 GE, ditto Ruth Davidson when she came on the scene up here in Scotland when she fought that by-election in Glasgow even before she entered Holyrood. I voted for Cameron and Davidson in the subequent Leadership contests and the rest is history. And I remain confident I made the right choice voting for Kemi last year.

    There was not a cats chance in hell that any new leader of the Conservative party was going to get a fair hearing from the public after such a monumental defeat a year ago, the public were simple never going to be interested in what any new leader had to say. So the idea that ANY new Conservative leader, and especially a Farage mini me was going to fair any better is for the birds! But even more crazy, had the party panicked and tried to replace Kemi so soon after that GE with anyone else it would simple have driven home the toxic issues that saw the party suffer such a humiliating defeat in 2024.

    Kemi inherited the worse political leadership gig last year, but like Cameron and Ruth Davidson she stuck to her guns and set her own path and she has grown into the job as Leader despite the internal and external critics grumbling from the sidelines. And the fact that her own personal ratings like Cameron and Davidson now show a more significant improvement than the party's polling tells you thanks to her like them, its her current performance which is definitely driving the fact that the public are now starting to take notice and are willing to give her and the party another look in an ever widening field of political party/leader contenders.

    I would bet on Kemi if given the chance to stay the course until the next GE up against Nigel Farage who already seems to be going off the boil when it comes to the tough day to day hard grind of Opposition politics when the party in Government has a huge majority and you are literally a one man show with a handful of MPs even if GB news are desperately trying to do the heavy lifting for you. It will be interesting to see how that news channel deals with a renewed Conservative centre right party if the one man show that is Nigel Farage's Reform party loses momentum in the media and the polls next year.

  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 26,273

    Sandpit said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Based on this polling I wouldn’t be surprised the Tories ahead of Reform at some point in quarter one of 2026, if present trends hold, not consistently but on an outlier basis.

    Word missing there?

    On the substantive point, am I right in thinking as well that Farage is at the same time the oldest and the least experienced of the four major party leaders? He's not likely to be improving now as he ages and he's never been in cabinet.

    No, Starmer is about 18 months older than Farage.

    Blair and Cameron had never been in government before they became PM.
    Fair enough on the first point.

    Cameron and Blair had both been Leaders of the Opposition. Farage hasn't even done that.
    Farage needs to spend that big donation he got the other week setting up the same sort of machine the Tories have as the official Opposition, both from Short Money and their own HQ team.

    They need dozens of people in shadow ministerial roles, and a whole group of researchers and policy wonks behind them.

    As the election draws closer, they need to have ideas about finance, health, transport, and a dozen other policy areas that aren’t immigration and asylum.
    Former Conservative big thinker Danny Kruger is supposed to be handling this policy development for Reform.
    Welcome to my nightmare!
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 21,067

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Based on this polling I wouldn’t be surprised the Tories ahead of Reform at some point in quarter one of 2026, if present trends hold, not consistently but on an outlier basis.

    Word missing there?

    On the substantive point, am I right in thinking as well that Farage is at the same time the oldest and the least experienced of the four major party leaders? He's not likely to be improving now as he ages and he's never been in cabinet.

    No, Starmer is about 18 months older than Farage.

    Blair and Cameron had never been in government before they became PM.
    Fair enough on the first point.

    Cameron and Blair had both been Leaders of the Opposition. Farage hasn't even done that.
    Indeed he quite often skives off Parliament. I think he finds it boring because its not all about him.
    This has recently set me wondering if Nigel Farage might bail soon. He is rarely in the Commons or in Clacton, and does not even seem to have much to say about Streeting or Lammy advocating customs unions with the EU, an issue you'd think would be mother's milk to him. Is he still interested in politics? (That said, maybe he is just under the weather as there are some nasty bugs doing the rounds.)
    I wonder if the 'I can't really remember what happened 50 years ago but I definitely did not say those racist and antisemitic things' row has put his gas at a peep. The one time I saw Farage address the issue directly he seemed uncharacteristically shifty and evasive.
    I wonder if the problem wasn't so much what Nigel the Schoolboy might have said/done, as Nigel the Adult's shiftiness.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 84,666

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Based on this polling I wouldn’t be surprised the Tories ahead of Reform at some point in quarter one of 2026, if present trends hold, not consistently but on an outlier basis.

    Word missing there?

    On the substantive point, am I right in thinking as well that Farage is at the same time the oldest and the least experienced of the four major party leaders? He's not likely to be improving now as he ages and he's never been in cabinet.

    No, Starmer is about 18 months older than Farage.

    Blair and Cameron had never been in government before they became PM.
    Fair enough on the first point.

    Cameron and Blair had both been Leaders of the Opposition. Farage hasn't even done that.
    Indeed he quite often skives off Parliament. I think he finds it boring because its not all about him.
    This has recently set me wondering if Nigel Farage might bail soon. He is rarely in the Commons or in Clacton, and does not even seem to have much to say about Streeting or Lammy advocating customs unions with the EU, an issue you'd think would be mother's milk to him. Is he still interested in politics? (That said, maybe he is just under the weather as there are some nasty bugs doing the rounds.)
    I wonder if the 'I can't really remember what happened 50 years ago but I definitely did not say those racist and antisemitic things' row has put his gas at a peep. The one time I saw Farage address the issue directly he seemed uncharacteristically shifty and evasive.
    Uncharacteristically ?

    More than usual, perhaps.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 84,666
    This has a distinct echo of the topic that cannot be mentioned.

    It only took 20 years. The FBI labeling the case as a “child prostitution” case back in 2005 — and the Palm Beach state attorney telling these victims they could be arrested themselves (for prostitution) was/is unforgivable. Congress must investigate who benefited (besides Epstein) from the whitewashing of this crime.
    https://x.com/jkbjournalist/status/2003162097710952507
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 46,095
    Nigelb said:

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Based on this polling I wouldn’t be surprised the Tories ahead of Reform at some point in quarter one of 2026, if present trends hold, not consistently but on an outlier basis.

    Word missing there?

    On the substantive point, am I right in thinking as well that Farage is at the same time the oldest and the least experienced of the four major party leaders? He's not likely to be improving now as he ages and he's never been in cabinet.

    No, Starmer is about 18 months older than Farage.

    Blair and Cameron had never been in government before they became PM.
    Fair enough on the first point.

    Cameron and Blair had both been Leaders of the Opposition. Farage hasn't even done that.
    Indeed he quite often skives off Parliament. I think he finds it boring because its not all about him.
    This has recently set me wondering if Nigel Farage might bail soon. He is rarely in the Commons or in Clacton, and does not even seem to have much to say about Streeting or Lammy advocating customs unions with the EU, an issue you'd think would be mother's milk to him. Is he still interested in politics? (That said, maybe he is just under the weather as there are some nasty bugs doing the rounds.)
    I wonder if the 'I can't really remember what happened 50 years ago but I definitely did not say those racist and antisemitic things' row has put his gas at a peep. The one time I saw Farage address the issue directly he seemed uncharacteristically shifty and evasive.
    Uncharacteristically ?

    More than usual, perhaps.
    Well, rather more precisely a shortage of the usual blustering overconfidence..
  • isamisam Posts: 43,248
    You Gov are always bad for Reform, but this must be the worst for some time

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    REF: 25% (-3)
    LAB: 20% (+2)
    CON: 19% (+2)
    LDM: 15% (+1)
    GRN: 15% (-2)
    SNP: 3% (-1)

    Via @YouGov, On 21-22 December,
    Changes w/ 14-15 December.


    https://x.com/electpoliticsuk/status/2003369188841443503?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 18,725

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    IanB2 said:

    While Labour has the most to lose, it’s hard to see the local elections being that great for the Tories given they are batting off a 2022 position when they were at 35% in National VI and pulled in 30% of the local election NEV. Today they’re nearer 20% in the polls (or less!) and many of their councillors will face challenges from both right and left.

    Good morning, everyone.

    Might be hard to say how well they're doing if some locals are cancelled by Labour for reasons that are... questionable.
    ‘Questionable’ is something of an understatement.

    Even Trump isn’t planning on cancelling mid-term elections.
    Those well-known pro-Conservatives the, er, Lib Dems
    At Westminster the Lib Dems have only ever gone into coalition with the Tories, never with Labour, so the Lib Dems are pro-Conservatives.

    My logic is flawless and irrefutable.
    1915, 1931 and 1940 all say hello (as to a lesser extent does the Lib/Lab pact).

    I know technically the Liberal Democrats didn’t exist until 1988, but…
    My comment remains true.

    It's funny how many in the Labour party haven't forgiven the Lib Dems for the coalition.

    I have a Labour activist friend who still wants Nick Clegg charged with treason. He had voted Lib Dems five general elections in a row to keep the Tories out then absolutely lost it when the coalition was formed.
    Surely even funnier the Tories haven't forgiven the Lib Dems for going into coalition with themselves?

    "Tuition fees" is a common jibe even now. (Tuition fees was a Tory policy the Lib Dems agreed to in coalition)
  • TazTaz Posts: 23,249

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Based on this polling I wouldn’t be surprised the Tories ahead of Reform at some point in quarter one of 2026, if present trends hold, not consistently but on an outlier basis.

    Word missing there?

    On the substantive point, am I right in thinking as well that Farage is at the same time the oldest and the least experienced of the four major party leaders? He's not likely to be improving now as he ages and he's never been in cabinet.

    No, Starmer is about 18 months older than Farage.

    Blair and Cameron had never been in government before they became PM.
    Fair enough on the first point.

    Cameron and Blair had both been Leaders of the Opposition. Farage hasn't even done that.
    Indeed he quite often skives off Parliament. I think he finds it boring because its not all about him.
    This has recently set me wondering if Nigel Farage might bail soon. He is rarely in the Commons or in Clacton, and does not even seem to have much to say about Streeting or Lammy advocating customs unions with the EU, an issue you'd think would be mother's milk to him. Is he still interested in politics? (That said, maybe he is just under the weather as there are some nasty bugs doing the rounds.)
    I wonder if the 'I can't really remember what happened 50 years ago but I definitely did not say those racist and antisemitic things' row has put his gas at a peep. The one time I saw Farage address the issue directly he seemed uncharacteristically shifty and evasive.
    I notice there’s a distinct lack of a robust response on this from him. Like you I’ve seen the same sort of response from him on this.

    He’s allowed it to fester when he could have shut it down quickly.

    Compare on contrast to the Tit hypnotist who always goes on full attack when in defence against various issues and, usually, they subside.

    Quite frankly what a child said 50 years ago shouldn’t define them now. But he has handled it poorly, and the media may be out to get him but that’s politics and no different for anyone else.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 26,273
    isam said:

    You Gov are always bad for Reform, but this must be the worst for some time

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    REF: 25% (-3)
    LAB: 20% (+2)
    CON: 19% (+2)
    LDM: 15% (+1)
    GRN: 15% (-2)
    SNP: 3% (-1)

    Via @YouGov, On 21-22 December,
    Changes w/ 14-15 December.


    https://x.com/electpoliticsuk/status/2003369188841443503?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    For the majority of Reform voters it wont be enough but might they be losing that 2-3% now that net migration is 200k rather than 900k?
  • TazTaz Posts: 23,249

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Based on this polling I wouldn’t be surprised the Tories ahead of Reform at some point in quarter one of 2026, if present trends hold, not consistently but on an outlier basis.

    Word missing there?

    On the substantive point, am I right in thinking as well that Farage is at the same time the oldest and the least experienced of the four major party leaders? He's not likely to be improving now as he ages and he's never been in cabinet.

    No, Starmer is about 18 months older than Farage.

    Blair and Cameron had never been in government before they became PM.
    Fair enough on the first point.

    Cameron and Blair had both been Leaders of the Opposition. Farage hasn't even done that.
    Indeed he quite often skives off Parliament. I think he finds it boring because its not all about him.
    This has recently set me wondering if Nigel Farage might bail soon. He is rarely in the Commons or in Clacton, and does not even seem to have much to say about Streeting or Lammy advocating customs unions with the EU, an issue you'd think would be mother's milk to him. Is he still interested in politics? (That said, maybe he is just under the weather as there are some nasty bugs doing the rounds.)
    I wonder if the 'I can't really remember what happened 50 years ago but I definitely did not say those racist and antisemitic things' row has put his gas at a peep. The one time I saw Farage address the issue directly he seemed uncharacteristically shifty and evasive.
    I wonder if the problem wasn't so much what Nigel the Schoolboy might have said/done, as Nigel the Adult's shiftiness.
    In a nutshell. He’s handled it poorly.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 26,273
    FF43 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    IanB2 said:

    While Labour has the most to lose, it’s hard to see the local elections being that great for the Tories given they are batting off a 2022 position when they were at 35% in National VI and pulled in 30% of the local election NEV. Today they’re nearer 20% in the polls (or less!) and many of their councillors will face challenges from both right and left.

    Good morning, everyone.

    Might be hard to say how well they're doing if some locals are cancelled by Labour for reasons that are... questionable.
    ‘Questionable’ is something of an understatement.

    Even Trump isn’t planning on cancelling mid-term elections.
    Those well-known pro-Conservatives the, er, Lib Dems
    At Westminster the Lib Dems have only ever gone into coalition with the Tories, never with Labour, so the Lib Dems are pro-Conservatives.

    My logic is flawless and irrefutable.
    1915, 1931 and 1940 all say hello (as to a lesser extent does the Lib/Lab pact).

    I know technically the Liberal Democrats didn’t exist until 1988, but…
    My comment remains true.

    It's funny how many in the Labour party haven't forgiven the Lib Dems for the coalition.

    I have a Labour activist friend who still wants Nick Clegg charged with treason. He had voted Lib Dems five general elections in a row to keep the Tories out then absolutely lost it when the coalition was formed.
    Surely even funnier the Tories haven't forgiven the Lib Dems for going into coalition with themselves?

    "Tuition fees" is a common jibe even now. (Tuition fees was a Tory policy the Lib Dems agreed to in coalition)
    And which no party is planning to get rid off.....but its all solely down to Clegg.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 24,042
    isam said:

    You Gov are always bad for Reform, but this must be the worst for some time

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    REF: 25% (-3)
    LAB: 20% (+2)
    CON: 19% (+2)
    LDM: 15% (+1)
    GRN: 15% (-2)
    SNP: 3% (-1)

    Via @YouGov, On 21-22 December,
    Changes w/ 14-15 December.


    https://x.com/electpoliticsuk/status/2003369188841443503?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    We're heading for a 5-way tie on 19% each.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 18,725

    FF43 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    IanB2 said:

    While Labour has the most to lose, it’s hard to see the local elections being that great for the Tories given they are batting off a 2022 position when they were at 35% in National VI and pulled in 30% of the local election NEV. Today they’re nearer 20% in the polls (or less!) and many of their councillors will face challenges from both right and left.

    Good morning, everyone.

    Might be hard to say how well they're doing if some locals are cancelled by Labour for reasons that are... questionable.
    ‘Questionable’ is something of an understatement.

    Even Trump isn’t planning on cancelling mid-term elections.
    Those well-known pro-Conservatives the, er, Lib Dems
    At Westminster the Lib Dems have only ever gone into coalition with the Tories, never with Labour, so the Lib Dems are pro-Conservatives.

    My logic is flawless and irrefutable.
    1915, 1931 and 1940 all say hello (as to a lesser extent does the Lib/Lab pact).

    I know technically the Liberal Democrats didn’t exist until 1988, but…
    My comment remains true.

    It's funny how many in the Labour party haven't forgiven the Lib Dems for the coalition.

    I have a Labour activist friend who still wants Nick Clegg charged with treason. He had voted Lib Dems five general elections in a row to keep the Tories out then absolutely lost it when the coalition was formed.
    Surely even funnier the Tories haven't forgiven the Lib Dems for going into coalition with themselves?

    "Tuition fees" is a common jibe even now. (Tuition fees was a Tory policy the Lib Dems agreed to in coalition)
    And which no party is planning to get rid off.....but its all solely down to Clegg.
    As of today the Conservatives and Lib Dems clearly have no intention of going into coalition together. Very different from 2010
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 16,108

    isam said:

    You Gov are always bad for Reform, but this must be the worst for some time

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    REF: 25% (-3)
    LAB: 20% (+2)
    CON: 19% (+2)
    LDM: 15% (+1)
    GRN: 15% (-2)
    SNP: 3% (-1)

    Via @YouGov, On 21-22 December,
    Changes w/ 14-15 December.


    https://x.com/electpoliticsuk/status/2003369188841443503?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    For the majority of Reform voters it wont be enough but might they be losing that 2-3% now that net migration is 200k rather than 900k?
    On current trajectories Tories and Greens (going up) meet Reform (going down) before the middle of 2026 on roughly 25%. Labour by then out of sight at about 13.


    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#/media/File:Opinion_polling_graph_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election_(post-2024).svg
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 26,273

    isam said:

    You Gov are always bad for Reform, but this must be the worst for some time

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    REF: 25% (-3)
    LAB: 20% (+2)
    CON: 19% (+2)
    LDM: 15% (+1)
    GRN: 15% (-2)
    SNP: 3% (-1)

    Via @YouGov, On 21-22 December,
    Changes w/ 14-15 December.


    https://x.com/electpoliticsuk/status/2003369188841443503?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    We're heading for a 5-way tie on 19% each.
    I think Kemi is an excellent bet at 20 next PM, partly for trading and partly for value. Also like the 12-14 range for Conservative majority.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 68,606
    isam said:

    You Gov are always bad for Reform, but this must be the worst for some time

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    REF: 25% (-3)
    LAB: 20% (+2)
    CON: 19% (+2)
    LDM: 15% (+1)
    GRN: 15% (-2)
    SNP: 3% (-1)

    Via @YouGov, On 21-22 December,
    Changes w/ 14-15 December.


    https://x.com/electpoliticsuk/status/2003369188841443503?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    Good morning

    Maybe the shine is coming off Farage and hopefully it will continue
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 34,357
    Nigelb said:

    This has a distinct echo of the topic that cannot be mentioned.

    It only took 20 years. The FBI labeling the case as a “child prostitution” case back in 2005 — and the Palm Beach state attorney telling these victims they could be arrested themselves (for prostitution) was/is unforgivable. Congress must investigate who benefited (besides Epstein) from the whitewashing of this crime.
    https://x.com/jkbjournalist/status/2003162097710952507

    What's the betting angle? It won't bring down Trump and most (all?) of his likely successors are too young to have been involved with Epstein.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 26,273
    algarkirk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    This is such utter woke nonsense from Labour, attacking the hospitality sector once more.

    What will they ban next? Perhaps they'll ban me from burning £50 notes in front of homeless people.

    Boiling live lobsters to be banned in Labour crackdown

    Restaurateurs and seafood industry criticise new animal welfare strategy


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/12/22/boiling-live-lobsters-to-be-banned-in-labour-crackdown/

    I know a few people involved with animal welfare who are quite pleased by Labour ambition in this area. Nick Palmer probably knows a lot more.

    I have a feeling I belong to a niche minority here. I am deeply uncomfortable about lobster boiling and have no problem with fox hunting.

    On which subject, the plan to ban trail hounds.

    In Cumberland and Westmorland there is a long tradition of trail hound racing which has never had any connection with hunting animals, has always used scent trails and doesn't do red jackets and stirrup cups and lives in a world closer to whippets than Anthony Trollope novels. This should not be banned.
    Never quite understood our hierarchy of which animals we can torture and to what extent myself! Seems 90% custom and 10% logic.

    Unfortunately for the lobster, and it probably says more about my human morality, but I can't get worked up about it either.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 84,666

    isam said:

    You Gov are always bad for Reform, but this must be the worst for some time

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    REF: 25% (-3)
    LAB: 20% (+2)
    CON: 19% (+2)
    LDM: 15% (+1)
    GRN: 15% (-2)
    SNP: 3% (-1)

    Via @YouGov, On 21-22 December,
    Changes w/ 14-15 December.


    https://x.com/electpoliticsuk/status/2003369188841443503?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    We're heading for a 5-way tie on 19% each.
    I think Kemi is an excellent bet at 20 next PM, partly for trading and partly for value. Also like the 12-14 range for Conservative majority.
    Is there a market for largest number of seats ?
    (I'd want at least 20:1 for a Tory majority.)
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 125,331
    edited 9:17AM

    Nigelb said:

    This has a distinct echo of the topic that cannot be mentioned.

    It only took 20 years. The FBI labeling the case as a “child prostitution” case back in 2005 — and the Palm Beach state attorney telling these victims they could be arrested themselves (for prostitution) was/is unforgivable. Congress must investigate who benefited (besides Epstein) from the whitewashing of this crime.
    https://x.com/jkbjournalist/status/2003162097710952507

    What's the betting angle? It won't bring down Trump and most (all?) of his likely successors are too young to have been involved with Epstein.
    There’s a fracturing of the MAGA alliance.

    See the Israeli/Jews are responsible for child abuse/framing some of the GOP.



    My brain is in holiday mode so I don’t have the energy to write a thread on it this side of the new year.
  • MelonBMelonB Posts: 16,601

    isam said:

    You Gov are always bad for Reform, but this must be the worst for some time

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    REF: 25% (-3)
    LAB: 20% (+2)
    CON: 19% (+2)
    LDM: 15% (+1)
    GRN: 15% (-2)
    SNP: 3% (-1)

    Via @YouGov, On 21-22 December,
    Changes w/ 14-15 December.


    https://x.com/electpoliticsuk/status/2003369188841443503?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    We're heading for a 5-way tie on 19% each.
    Just under a decade after the Brexit vote, we’re finally achieving the ultimate EU convergence: European style party vote shares.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 34,357
    Taz said:

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Based on this polling I wouldn’t be surprised the Tories ahead of Reform at some point in quarter one of 2026, if present trends hold, not consistently but on an outlier basis.

    Word missing there?

    On the substantive point, am I right in thinking as well that Farage is at the same time the oldest and the least experienced of the four major party leaders? He's not likely to be improving now as he ages and he's never been in cabinet.

    No, Starmer is about 18 months older than Farage.

    Blair and Cameron had never been in government before they became PM.
    Fair enough on the first point.

    Cameron and Blair had both been Leaders of the Opposition. Farage hasn't even done that.
    Indeed he quite often skives off Parliament. I think he finds it boring because its not all about him.
    This has recently set me wondering if Nigel Farage might bail soon. He is rarely in the Commons or in Clacton, and does not even seem to have much to say about Streeting or Lammy advocating customs unions with the EU, an issue you'd think would be mother's milk to him. Is he still interested in politics? (That said, maybe he is just under the weather as there are some nasty bugs doing the rounds.)
    I wonder if the 'I can't really remember what happened 50 years ago but I definitely did not say those racist and antisemitic things' row has put his gas at a peep. The one time I saw Farage address the issue directly he seemed uncharacteristically shifty and evasive.
    I wonder if the problem wasn't so much what Nigel the Schoolboy might have said/done, as Nigel the Adult's shiftiness.
    In a nutshell. He’s handled it poorly.
    Farage has handled the schoolboy accusations poorly but I've not heard them mentioned on the street so I do not think there is much cut-through. Normally the most likely agent of change would be those funding the party but Reform has just been given £9 million so that angle is covered. Even the other parties you'd expect to be taking up pitchforks aren't.
  • TazTaz Posts: 23,249

    Sandpit said:

    IanB2 said:

    While Labour has the most to lose, it’s hard to see the local elections being that great for the Tories given they are batting off a 2022 position when they were at 35% in National VI and pulled in 30% of the local election NEV. Today they’re nearer 20% in the polls (or less!) and many of their councillors will face challenges from both right and left.

    Good morning, everyone.

    Might be hard to say how well they're doing if some locals are cancelled by Labour for reasons that are... questionable.
    ‘Questionable’ is something of an understatement.

    Even Trump isn’t planning on cancelling mid-term elections.
    Those well-known pro-Conservatives the, er, Lib Dems
    At Westminster the Lib Dems have only ever gone into coalition with the Tories, never with Labour, so the Lib Dems are pro-Conservatives.

    My logic is flawless and irrefutable.
    They must be hoping for something from Labour given the cerebral Ed Davey always asks the softest of questions and PMQs
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 2,054

    isam said:

    You Gov are always bad for Reform, but this must be the worst for some time

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    REF: 25% (-3)
    LAB: 20% (+2)
    CON: 19% (+2)
    LDM: 15% (+1)
    GRN: 15% (-2)
    SNP: 3% (-1)

    Via @YouGov, On 21-22 December,
    Changes w/ 14-15 December.


    https://x.com/electpoliticsuk/status/2003369188841443503?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    Good morning

    Maybe the shine is coming off Farage and hopefully it will continue
    I think you mean the glitter is getting covered over

    It's the same playbook for the last 20 years or so, big up the "man of the people" Farage party, drawing the "socially conservative" vote away from Labour and the Conservatives further right, then dump Farage for the Conservatives.
  • MelonBMelonB Posts: 16,601
    isam said:

    You Gov are always bad for Reform, but this must be the worst for some time

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    REF: 25% (-3)
    LAB: 20% (+2)
    CON: 19% (+2)
    LDM: 15% (+1)
    GRN: 15% (-2)
    SNP: 3% (-1)

    Via @YouGov, On 21-22 December,
    Changes w/ 14-15 December.


    https://x.com/electpoliticsuk/status/2003369188841443503?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    LLG 50, RefCon 44. An outlier on the bloc votes.
  • TazTaz Posts: 23,249

    Taz said:

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Based on this polling I wouldn’t be surprised the Tories ahead of Reform at some point in quarter one of 2026, if present trends hold, not consistently but on an outlier basis.

    Word missing there?

    On the substantive point, am I right in thinking as well that Farage is at the same time the oldest and the least experienced of the four major party leaders? He's not likely to be improving now as he ages and he's never been in cabinet.

    No, Starmer is about 18 months older than Farage.

    Blair and Cameron had never been in government before they became PM.
    Fair enough on the first point.

    Cameron and Blair had both been Leaders of the Opposition. Farage hasn't even done that.
    Indeed he quite often skives off Parliament. I think he finds it boring because its not all about him.
    This has recently set me wondering if Nigel Farage might bail soon. He is rarely in the Commons or in Clacton, and does not even seem to have much to say about Streeting or Lammy advocating customs unions with the EU, an issue you'd think would be mother's milk to him. Is he still interested in politics? (That said, maybe he is just under the weather as there are some nasty bugs doing the rounds.)
    I wonder if the 'I can't really remember what happened 50 years ago but I definitely did not say those racist and antisemitic things' row has put his gas at a peep. The one time I saw Farage address the issue directly he seemed uncharacteristically shifty and evasive.
    I wonder if the problem wasn't so much what Nigel the Schoolboy might have said/done, as Nigel the Adult's shiftiness.
    In a nutshell. He’s handled it poorly.
    Farage has handled the schoolboy accusations poorly but I've not heard them mentioned on the street so I do not think there is much cut-through. Normally the most likely agent of change would be those funding the party but Reform has just been given £9 million so that angle is covered. Even the other parties you'd expect to be taking up pitchforks aren't.
    Another Westminster obsession ?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,734

    Nigelb said:

    This has a distinct echo of the topic that cannot be mentioned.

    It only took 20 years. The FBI labeling the case as a “child prostitution” case back in 2005 — and the Palm Beach state attorney telling these victims they could be arrested themselves (for prostitution) was/is unforgivable. Congress must investigate who benefited (besides Epstein) from the whitewashing of this crime.
    https://x.com/jkbjournalist/status/2003162097710952507

    What's the betting angle? It won't bring down Trump and most (all?) of his likely successors are too young to have been involved with Epstein.
    There’s a fracturing of the MAGA alliance.
    Trump's started referring to Marjorie Taylor Greene as Marjorie Traitor Brown.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 26,273
    Nigelb said:

    isam said:

    You Gov are always bad for Reform, but this must be the worst for some time

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    REF: 25% (-3)
    LAB: 20% (+2)
    CON: 19% (+2)
    LDM: 15% (+1)
    GRN: 15% (-2)
    SNP: 3% (-1)

    Via @YouGov, On 21-22 December,
    Changes w/ 14-15 December.


    https://x.com/electpoliticsuk/status/2003369188841443503?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    We're heading for a 5-way tie on 19% each.
    I think Kemi is an excellent bet at 20 next PM, partly for trading and partly for value. Also like the 12-14 range for Conservative majority.
    Is there a market for largest number of seats ?
    (I'd want at least 20:1 for a Tory majority.)
    Most seats they are 5.3-5.7

    I'm also on that at a higher price, but at current prices prefer the majority/PM myself, if and when they get momentum vs Reform the press and donor money will accelerate that imo. On the PM I expect Starmer will be replaced closer to the election, but if he isn't then it will typically be a sign that Reform are no longer miles ahead and things are tightening up which again imo, favours the Tories.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 125,331
    Nigelb said:

    isam said:

    You Gov are always bad for Reform, but this must be the worst for some time

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    REF: 25% (-3)
    LAB: 20% (+2)
    CON: 19% (+2)
    LDM: 15% (+1)
    GRN: 15% (-2)
    SNP: 3% (-1)

    Via @YouGov, On 21-22 December,
    Changes w/ 14-15 December.


    https://x.com/electpoliticsuk/status/2003369188841443503?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    We're heading for a 5-way tie on 19% each.
    I think Kemi is an excellent bet at 20 next PM, partly for trading and partly for value. Also like the 12-14 range for Conservative majority.
    Is there a market for largest number of seats ?
    (I'd want at least 20:1 for a Tory majority.)
    Yes.

    5.3 for Con most seats

    11.5 for Con majority.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/event/33407388/multi-market?marketIds=1.230583324
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 2,054
    Dopermean said:

    isam said:

    You Gov are always bad for Reform, but this must be the worst for some time

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    REF: 25% (-3)
    LAB: 20% (+2)
    CON: 19% (+2)
    LDM: 15% (+1)
    GRN: 15% (-2)
    SNP: 3% (-1)

    Via @YouGov, On 21-22 December,
    Changes w/ 14-15 December.


    https://x.com/electpoliticsuk/status/2003369188841443503?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    Good morning

    Maybe the shine is coming off Farage and hopefully it will continue
    I think you mean the glitter is getting covered over

    It's the same playbook for the last 20 years or so, big up the "man of the people" Farage party, drawing the "socially conservative" vote away from Labour and the Conservatives further right, then dump Farage for the Conservatives.
    Reform are just over evens for most seats, against the Conservative party machine and FPTP, I think that's a lay
  • TazTaz Posts: 23,249

    isam said:

    You Gov are always bad for Reform, but this must be the worst for some time

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    REF: 25% (-3)
    LAB: 20% (+2)
    CON: 19% (+2)
    LDM: 15% (+1)
    GRN: 15% (-2)
    SNP: 3% (-1)

    Via @YouGov, On 21-22 December,
    Changes w/ 14-15 December.


    https://x.com/electpoliticsuk/status/2003369188841443503?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    Good morning

    Maybe the shine is coming off Farage and hopefully it will continue
    Proportionately the tit whisperer is down by a greater percentage than Reform.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 84,666
    edited 9:25AM

    Nigelb said:

    This has a distinct echo of the topic that cannot be mentioned.

    It only took 20 years. The FBI labeling the case as a “child prostitution” case back in 2005 — and the Palm Beach state attorney telling these victims they could be arrested themselves (for prostitution) was/is unforgivable. Congress must investigate who benefited (besides Epstein) from the whitewashing of this crime.
    https://x.com/jkbjournalist/status/2003162097710952507

    What's the betting angle? It won't bring down Trump and most (all?) of his likely successors are too young to have been involved with Epstein.
    Does there need to be a betting angle ?

    FWIW, I think their complicity in trying to bury this to protect Trump will be one of the things which will doom any Republican candidate (no one who repudiates MAGA will get the nomination) in 2028.
  • MelonBMelonB Posts: 16,601
    edited 9:26AM

    algarkirk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    This is such utter woke nonsense from Labour, attacking the hospitality sector once more.

    What will they ban next? Perhaps they'll ban me from burning £50 notes in front of homeless people.

    Boiling live lobsters to be banned in Labour crackdown

    Restaurateurs and seafood industry criticise new animal welfare strategy


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/12/22/boiling-live-lobsters-to-be-banned-in-labour-crackdown/

    I know a few people involved with animal welfare who are quite pleased by Labour ambition in this area. Nick Palmer probably knows a lot more.

    I have a feeling I belong to a niche minority here. I am deeply uncomfortable about lobster boiling and have no problem with fox hunting.

    On which subject, the plan to ban trail hounds.

    In Cumberland and Westmorland there is a long tradition of trail hound racing which has never had any connection with hunting animals, has always used scent trails and doesn't do red jackets and stirrup cups and lives in a world closer to whippets than Anthony Trollope novels. This should not be banned.
    Never quite understood our hierarchy of which animals we can torture and to what extent myself! Seems 90% custom and 10% logic.

    Unfortunately for the lobster, and it probably says more about my human morality, but I can't get worked up about it either.
    The one that gets me morally confused is the question of deaths per meal.

    Is a juicy steak (let’s say 1% of a cow), or better still a chunk of braised whale (0.001%?), more ethical than a prawn cocktail (15 whole beings) or plate of whitebait (30 lives, ended right there)?
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 16,108

    algarkirk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    This is such utter woke nonsense from Labour, attacking the hospitality sector once more.

    What will they ban next? Perhaps they'll ban me from burning £50 notes in front of homeless people.

    Boiling live lobsters to be banned in Labour crackdown

    Restaurateurs and seafood industry criticise new animal welfare strategy


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/12/22/boiling-live-lobsters-to-be-banned-in-labour-crackdown/

    I know a few people involved with animal welfare who are quite pleased by Labour ambition in this area. Nick Palmer probably knows a lot more.

    I have a feeling I belong to a niche minority here. I am deeply uncomfortable about lobster boiling and have no problem with fox hunting.

    On which subject, the plan to ban trail hounds.

    In Cumberland and Westmorland there is a long tradition of trail hound racing which has never had any connection with hunting animals, has always used scent trails and doesn't do red jackets and stirrup cups and lives in a world closer to whippets than Anthony Trollope novels. This should not be banned.
    Never quite understood our hierarchy of which animals we can torture and to what extent myself! Seems 90% custom and 10% logic.

    Unfortunately for the lobster, and it probably says more about my human morality, but I can't get worked up about it either.
    It's tricky. The starting point really is that we feel to have feelings and moral responsibilities (eg to our cat), but the natural world is full of monstrous cruelties. Nature isn't nice. (That's why Roman Catholic 'natural law' morality is brilliantly clever but doesn't work and is clearly wrong.)

    Useful starters for 10: David Hume's view that all morality is based on sentiment or emotion; and the urban/woke/left view of the rights of the rat.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 26,273
    edited 9:26AM
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    This has a distinct echo of the topic that cannot be mentioned.

    It only took 20 years. The FBI labeling the case as a “child prostitution” case back in 2005 — and the Palm Beach state attorney telling these victims they could be arrested themselves (for prostitution) was/is unforgivable. Congress must investigate who benefited (besides Epstein) from the whitewashing of this crime.
    https://x.com/jkbjournalist/status/2003162097710952507

    What's the betting angle? It won't bring down Trump and most (all?) of his likely successors are too young to have been involved with Epstein.
    Dies there need to be a betting angle ?

    FWIW, I think their complicity in trying to bury this to protect Trump will be one of the things which will doom any Republican candidate (no one who repudiates MAGA will get the nomination) in 2028.
    The guy used to (maybe still does) boast about getting to see girls naked at his beauty pageant and wanting to date his daughter.

    Not really sure why we need the release of some files to understand his proclivity.

    PS - Damn, thats another 5 years before I can go to the states.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 26,273
    MelonB said:

    algarkirk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    This is such utter woke nonsense from Labour, attacking the hospitality sector once more.

    What will they ban next? Perhaps they'll ban me from burning £50 notes in front of homeless people.

    Boiling live lobsters to be banned in Labour crackdown

    Restaurateurs and seafood industry criticise new animal welfare strategy


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/12/22/boiling-live-lobsters-to-be-banned-in-labour-crackdown/

    I know a few people involved with animal welfare who are quite pleased by Labour ambition in this area. Nick Palmer probably knows a lot more.

    I have a feeling I belong to a niche minority here. I am deeply uncomfortable about lobster boiling and have no problem with fox hunting.

    On which subject, the plan to ban trail hounds.

    In Cumberland and Westmorland there is a long tradition of trail hound racing which has never had any connection with hunting animals, has always used scent trails and doesn't do red jackets and stirrup cups and lives in a world closer to whippets than Anthony Trollope novels. This should not be banned.
    Never quite understood our hierarchy of which animals we can torture and to what extent myself! Seems 90% custom and 10% logic.

    Unfortunately for the lobster, and it probably says more about my human morality, but I can't get worked up about it either.
    The one that gets me morally confused is the question of deaths per meal.

    Is a juicy steak (let’s say 1% of a cow), or better still a chunk of braised whale (0.001%?), more ethical than a prawn cocktail (15 whole beings) or plate of whitebait (30 lives, ended right there)?
    Easy, have the steak, you are protecting the ozone layer.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 34,357

    Nigelb said:

    This has a distinct echo of the topic that cannot be mentioned.

    It only took 20 years. The FBI labeling the case as a “child prostitution” case back in 2005 — and the Palm Beach state attorney telling these victims they could be arrested themselves (for prostitution) was/is unforgivable. Congress must investigate who benefited (besides Epstein) from the whitewashing of this crime.
    https://x.com/jkbjournalist/status/2003162097710952507

    What's the betting angle? It won't bring down Trump and most (all?) of his likely successors are too young to have been involved with Epstein.
    There’s a fracturing of the MAGA alliance.

    See the Israeli/Jews are responsible for child abuse/framing some of the GOP.



    My brain is in holiday mode so I don’t have the energy to write a thread on it this side of the new year.
    I was literally just asking someone what has happened to Tucker Carlson – from arguably the most respected political interviewer and pundit in America, to pro-Russia conspiracy theory loon without passing Go and collecting $200.

    MAGA has long been in a state of cognitive dissonance as President Trump has betrayed the isolationists by intervening in the Middle East and is now threatening Venezuela, and has resiled from his campaign pledge to release the Epstein files in full.

    On Venezuela, it looks like Trump, long anti-war himself, unlike the GOP neocons, hopes a naval blockade will bring down the Maduro regime. If or when this happens, I'd expect a lot of American aid to restore the economy quickly and anything not nailed down handed to US corporations. Cuba is probably not in the crosshairs but there is collateral economic damage so who knows?
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 2,171

    Sandpit said:

    IanB2 said:

    While Labour has the most to lose, it’s hard to see the local elections being that great for the Tories given they are batting off a 2022 position when they were at 35% in National VI and pulled in 30% of the local election NEV. Today they’re nearer 20% in the polls (or less!) and many of their councillors will face challenges from both right and left.

    Good morning, everyone.

    Might be hard to say how well they're doing if some locals are cancelled by Labour for reasons that are... questionable.
    ‘Questionable’ is something of an understatement.

    Even Trump isn’t planning on cancelling mid-term elections.
    Those well-known pro-Conservatives the, er, Lib Dems
    At Westminster the Lib Dems have only ever gone into coalition with the Tories, never with Labour, so the Lib Dems are pro-Conservatives.

    My logic is flawless and irrefutable.
    The Tories have gone into coalition with Labour and the Lib Dems, so they are indiscriminately pro-left.
    Political theory question. Can you use the terms left/right when the Overton window shifts about. Or are the terms time limited to a particular parliament?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 58,876
    algarkirk said:

    rkrkrk said:

    This is such utter woke nonsense from Labour, attacking the hospitality sector once more.

    What will they ban next? Perhaps they'll ban me from burning £50 notes in front of homeless people.

    Boiling live lobsters to be banned in Labour crackdown

    Restaurateurs and seafood industry criticise new animal welfare strategy


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/12/22/boiling-live-lobsters-to-be-banned-in-labour-crackdown/

    I know a few people involved with animal welfare who are quite pleased by Labour ambition in this area. Nick Palmer probably knows a lot more.

    I have a feeling I belong to a niche minority here. I am deeply uncomfortable about lobster boiling and have no problem with fox hunting.

    On which subject, the plan to ban trail hounds.

    In Cumberland and Westmorland there is a long tradition of trail hound racing which has never had any connection with hunting animals, has always used scent trails and doesn't do red jackets and stirrup cups and lives in a world closer to whippets than Anthony Trollope novels. This should not be banned.
    It does appear that Labour’s problem is actually the red jackets. They simply don’t like that a certain type of person associatates in such a way. If they met up on Boxing Day to drink coffee, the government would try and ban coffee.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 16,108
    On R4 Today this morning, a bit after 7.45 am I think, was a Robinson interview with one of Trump's long term mates, Chris Ruddy. It was the least challenging, most Trump friendly interview possible, all about his many virtues, tirelessness in activity and doing good, and his many triumphs for the good of humanity.

    Can this be linked to the BBC being sued by him?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 33,535
    rkrkrk said:

    This is such utter woke nonsense from Labour, attacking the hospitality sector once more.

    What will they ban next? Perhaps they'll ban me from burning £50 notes in front of homeless people.

    Boiling live lobsters to be banned in Labour crackdown

    Restaurateurs and seafood industry criticise new animal welfare strategy


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/12/22/boiling-live-lobsters-to-be-banned-in-labour-crackdown/

    I know a few people involved with animal welfare who are quite pleased by Labour ambition in this area. Nick Palmer probably knows a lot more.

    I never order lobster because of this cruel practice. Not sure how you do a ban though.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 9,269
    On Labour's animal welfare proposals, the ban on trail hunting was explicit in their 2024 manifesto, so it's hardly a surprise. More broadly, quite a lot of animal welfare zealots are attracted by the Greens, so I reckon this is a small step in tempting them to, or back to, Labour.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 34,357
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    This has a distinct echo of the topic that cannot be mentioned.

    It only took 20 years. The FBI labeling the case as a “child prostitution” case back in 2005 — and the Palm Beach state attorney telling these victims they could be arrested themselves (for prostitution) was/is unforgivable. Congress must investigate who benefited (besides Epstein) from the whitewashing of this crime.
    https://x.com/jkbjournalist/status/2003162097710952507

    What's the betting angle? It won't bring down Trump and most (all?) of his likely successors are too young to have been involved with Epstein.
    Does there need to be a betting angle ?

    FWIW, I think their complicity in trying to bury this to protect Trump will be one of the things which will doom any Republican candidate (no one who repudiates MAGA will get the nomination) in 2028.
    Yes because if there are political consequences there will be a betting angle so if there is no betting angle, there's nothing. In Britain, the Epstein scandal has brought down a senior member of the Royal Family. There, nothing.

    Now, the way the Trump White House switched so quickly and unexpectedly from releasing the lot to almost nothing does make me think they did discover a hidden bombshell very late on, but so far it's not gone off, and is most unlikely to involve Trump himself.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 58,876

    Nigelb said:

    This has a distinct echo of the topic that cannot be mentioned.

    It only took 20 years. The FBI labeling the case as a “child prostitution” case back in 2005 — and the Palm Beach state attorney telling these victims they could be arrested themselves (for prostitution) was/is unforgivable. Congress must investigate who benefited (besides Epstein) from the whitewashing of this crime.
    https://x.com/jkbjournalist/status/2003162097710952507

    What's the betting angle? It won't bring down Trump and most (all?) of his likely successors are too young to have been involved with Epstein.
    There’s a fracturing of the MAGA alliance.

    See the Israeli/Jews are responsible for child abuse/framing some of the GOP.



    My brain is in holiday mode so I don’t have the energy to write a thread on it this side of the new year.
    There’s an awful lot of antisemitism that’s appeared seemingly out of nowhere among the conservative commentator class in the US.

    One theory is that the person holding everything together in a relatively moderate fashion was Charlie Kirk.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 46,095
    algarkirk said:

    On R4 Today this morning, a bit after 7.45 am I think, was a Robinson interview with one of Trump's long term mates, Chris Ruddy. It was the least challenging, most Trump friendly interview possible, all about his many virtues, tirelessness in activity and doing good, and his many triumphs for the good of humanity.

    Can this be linked to the BBC being sued by him?

    It was Justin Webb so SOP for him.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 34,357

    rkrkrk said:

    This is such utter woke nonsense from Labour, attacking the hospitality sector once more.

    What will they ban next? Perhaps they'll ban me from burning £50 notes in front of homeless people.

    Boiling live lobsters to be banned in Labour crackdown

    Restaurateurs and seafood industry criticise new animal welfare strategy


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/12/22/boiling-live-lobsters-to-be-banned-in-labour-crackdown/

    I know a few people involved with animal welfare who are quite pleased by Labour ambition in this area. Nick Palmer probably knows a lot more.

    I never order lobster because of this cruel practice. Not sure how you do a ban though.
    Most British chefs put a knife through the brain to (allegedly) stop any suffering. I'd be more worried about industrially processed lobsters than those cooked to order in posh restaurants.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 53,625

    Sandpit said:

    IanB2 said:

    While Labour has the most to lose, it’s hard to see the local elections being that great for the Tories given they are batting off a 2022 position when they were at 35% in National VI and pulled in 30% of the local election NEV. Today they’re nearer 20% in the polls (or less!) and many of their councillors will face challenges from both right and left.

    Good morning, everyone.

    Might be hard to say how well they're doing if some locals are cancelled by Labour for reasons that are... questionable.
    ‘Questionable’ is something of an understatement.

    Even Trump isn’t planning on cancelling mid-term elections.
    Those well-known pro-Conservatives the, er, Lib Dems are also less than delighted the Government has decided to postpone numerous elections:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cwyljpjwy2zo

    Also:

    "The Electoral Commission, which oversees elections in the UK, has also expressed concern.

    The watchdog's chief executive Vijay Rangarajan said there was "a clear conflict of interest in asking existing councils to decide how long it will be before they are answerable to voters"."
    They're right that the government was wrong to pass responsibility for the decision over to the councils themselves - but of course that was the point, so that the buck didn't appear to sit with them
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 34,357
    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Based on this polling I wouldn’t be surprised the Tories ahead of Reform at some point in quarter one of 2026, if present trends hold, not consistently but on an outlier basis.

    Word missing there?

    On the substantive point, am I right in thinking as well that Farage is at the same time the oldest and the least experienced of the four major party leaders? He's not likely to be improving now as he ages and he's never been in cabinet.

    No, Starmer is about 18 months older than Farage.

    Blair and Cameron had never been in government before they became PM.
    Fair enough on the first point.

    Cameron and Blair had both been Leaders of the Opposition. Farage hasn't even done that.
    Indeed he quite often skives off Parliament. I think he finds it boring because its not all about him.
    This has recently set me wondering if Nigel Farage might bail soon. He is rarely in the Commons or in Clacton, and does not even seem to have much to say about Streeting or Lammy advocating customs unions with the EU, an issue you'd think would be mother's milk to him. Is he still interested in politics? (That said, maybe he is just under the weather as there are some nasty bugs doing the rounds.)
    I wonder if the 'I can't really remember what happened 50 years ago but I definitely did not say those racist and antisemitic things' row has put his gas at a peep. The one time I saw Farage address the issue directly he seemed uncharacteristically shifty and evasive.
    I wonder if the problem wasn't so much what Nigel the Schoolboy might have said/done, as Nigel the Adult's shiftiness.
    In a nutshell. He’s handled it poorly.
    Farage has handled the schoolboy accusations poorly but I've not heard them mentioned on the street so I do not think there is much cut-through. Normally the most likely agent of change would be those funding the party but Reform has just been given £9 million so that angle is covered. Even the other parties you'd expect to be taking up pitchforks aren't.
    Another Westminster obsession ?
    Fleet Street – the Guardian made the running here.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 13,407
    edited 9:49AM
    Taz said:

    isam said:

    You Gov are always bad for Reform, but this must be the worst for some time

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    REF: 25% (-3)
    LAB: 20% (+2)
    CON: 19% (+2)
    LDM: 15% (+1)
    GRN: 15% (-2)
    SNP: 3% (-1)

    Via @YouGov, On 21-22 December,
    Changes w/ 14-15 December.


    https://x.com/electpoliticsuk/status/2003369188841443503?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    Good morning

    Maybe the shine is coming off Farage and hopefully it will continue
    Proportionately the tit whisperer is down by a greater percentage than Reform.
    Taz I enjoy your posts but why oh why do you always have to be so offensive about politicians. Your post refering to Harris the other day with the Camel Toe name was a new low. I am not suggesting you are not critical of the policies but why use offensive names for the individuals. You wouldn't (I assume) do it to their face.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 53,625
    isam said:

    You Gov are always bad for Reform, but this must be the worst for some time

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    REF: 25% (-3)
    LAB: 20% (+2)
    CON: 19% (+2)
    LDM: 15% (+1)
    GRN: 15% (-2)
    SNP: 3% (-1)

    Via @YouGov, On 21-22 December,
    Changes w/ 14-15 December.


    https://x.com/electpoliticsuk/status/2003369188841443503?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    It can't be long before the Argentinians take another look at those islands....
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 17,528

    rkrkrk said:

    This is such utter woke nonsense from Labour, attacking the hospitality sector once more.

    What will they ban next? Perhaps they'll ban me from burning £50 notes in front of homeless people.

    Boiling live lobsters to be banned in Labour crackdown

    Restaurateurs and seafood industry criticise new animal welfare strategy


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/12/22/boiling-live-lobsters-to-be-banned-in-labour-crackdown/

    I know a few people involved with animal welfare who are quite pleased by Labour ambition in this area. Nick Palmer probably knows a lot more.

    I never order lobster because of this cruel practice. Not sure how you do a ban though.
    Most British chefs put a knife through the brain to (allegedly) stop any suffering. I'd be more worried about industrially processed lobsters than those cooked to order in posh restaurants.
    I once went to a restaurant in Jakarta where they served a lobster that was still moving. I found that very fucked up. Being vegetarian I didn't eat it.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 21,381
    isam said:

    You Gov are always bad for Reform, but this must be the worst for some time

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    REF: 25% (-3)
    LAB: 20% (+2)
    CON: 19% (+2)
    LDM: 15% (+1)
    GRN: 15% (-2)
    SNP: 3% (-1)

    Via @YouGov, On 21-22 December,
    Changes w/ 14-15 December.


    https://x.com/electpoliticsuk/status/2003369188841443503?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    YouGov had a Reform 25% in late November. There's a clear sign of a small Tory recovery mirrored by Reform declining in the opinion poll average graph on Wikipedia.

    The unknown is whether this trend will be reinforced by campaigning for the May elections, or if that will interrupt it.

    Also, given the personal ambitions of many of those involved, what are the chances Kemi gets ditched after losing lots of councillors in May anyway?
  • TresTres Posts: 3,307
    algarkirk said:

    On R4 Today this morning, a bit after 7.45 am I think, was a Robinson interview with one of Trump's long term mates, Chris Ruddy. It was the least challenging, most Trump friendly interview possible, all about his many virtues, tirelessness in activity and doing good, and his many triumphs for the good of humanity.

    Can this be linked to the BBC being sued by him?

    more likely linked to the gibbification of BBC news.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 53,625

    isam said:

    You Gov are always bad for Reform, but this must be the worst for some time

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    REF: 25% (-3)
    LAB: 20% (+2)
    CON: 19% (+2)
    LDM: 15% (+1)
    GRN: 15% (-2)
    SNP: 3% (-1)

    Via @YouGov, On 21-22 December,
    Changes w/ 14-15 December.


    https://x.com/electpoliticsuk/status/2003369188841443503?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    YouGov had a Reform 25% in late November. There's a clear sign of a small Tory recovery mirrored by Reform declining in the opinion poll average graph on Wikipedia.

    The unknown is whether this trend will be reinforced by campaigning for the May elections, or if that will interrupt it.

    Also, given the personal ambitions of many of those involved, what are the chances Kemi gets ditched after losing lots of councillors in May anyway?
    Barring immense change during the next few months, the story of election night is almost written already, as significant Reform and Green gains are surely nailed on. The competition is for who gets seen as the biggest loser, and there Labour already has a very good head start.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 21,681

    Andy_JS said:

    Any Karl Jenkins fans on here?

    Yes.., but are we talking his early work with Soft Machine or his later orchestral compositions?
    Yes I've worked with him many times. What's he been up to?
  • TresTres Posts: 3,307
    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    This has a distinct echo of the topic that cannot be mentioned.

    It only took 20 years. The FBI labeling the case as a “child prostitution” case back in 2005 — and the Palm Beach state attorney telling these victims they could be arrested themselves (for prostitution) was/is unforgivable. Congress must investigate who benefited (besides Epstein) from the whitewashing of this crime.
    https://x.com/jkbjournalist/status/2003162097710952507

    What's the betting angle? It won't bring down Trump and most (all?) of his likely successors are too young to have been involved with Epstein.
    There’s a fracturing of the MAGA alliance.

    See the Israeli/Jews are responsible for child abuse/framing some of the GOP.



    My brain is in holiday mode so I don’t have the energy to write a thread on it this side of the new year.
    There’s an awful lot of antisemitism that’s appeared seemingly out of nowhere among the conservative commentator class in the US.

    One theory is that the person holding everything together in a relatively moderate fashion was Charlie Kirk.
    LOL is that the latest feed from your sources. Tell us about the other unhinged Kirk conspiracy theories you've been reading about.
  • TresTres Posts: 3,307
    IanB2 said:

    isam said:

    You Gov are always bad for Reform, but this must be the worst for some time

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    REF: 25% (-3)
    LAB: 20% (+2)
    CON: 19% (+2)
    LDM: 15% (+1)
    GRN: 15% (-2)
    SNP: 3% (-1)

    Via @YouGov, On 21-22 December,
    Changes w/ 14-15 December.


    https://x.com/electpoliticsuk/status/2003369188841443503?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    YouGov had a Reform 25% in late November. There's a clear sign of a small Tory recovery mirrored by Reform declining in the opinion poll average graph on Wikipedia.

    The unknown is whether this trend will be reinforced by campaigning for the May elections, or if that will interrupt it.

    Also, given the personal ambitions of many of those involved, what are the chances Kemi gets ditched after losing lots of councillors in May anyway?
    Barring immense change during the next few months, the story of election night is almost written already, as significant Reform and Green gains are surely nailed on. The competition is for who gets seen as the biggest loser, and there Labour already has a very good head start.
    Story of election night is now also dependent on which councils decide to do an overnight count. If councils are serious about saving money they should be waiting until Friday morning.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 40,154

    isam said:

    You Gov are always bad for Reform, but this must be the worst for some time

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    REF: 25% (-3)
    LAB: 20% (+2)
    CON: 19% (+2)
    LDM: 15% (+1)
    GRN: 15% (-2)
    SNP: 3% (-1)

    Via @YouGov, On 21-22 December,
    Changes w/ 14-15 December.


    https://x.com/electpoliticsuk/status/2003369188841443503?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    YouGov had a Reform 25% in late November. There's a clear sign of a small Tory recovery mirrored by Reform declining in the opinion poll average graph on Wikipedia.

    The unknown is whether this trend will be reinforced by campaigning for the May elections, or if that will interrupt it.

    Also, given the personal ambitions of many of those involved, what are the chances Kemi gets ditched after losing lots of councillors in May anyway?
    Falling immigration, and much more focus on the economy, benefits the Conservatives at the expense of Reform.

    Added to which, are the attacks on Farage’s past, and unsavoury conduct from some Reform candidates.

    As against that, Reform are still storming ahead in local elections, and now retaining the seats that their councillors vacate. They could well gain another 1,000 seats in May.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 21,381
    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    This has a distinct echo of the topic that cannot be mentioned.

    It only took 20 years. The FBI labeling the case as a “child prostitution” case back in 2005 — and the Palm Beach state attorney telling these victims they could be arrested themselves (for prostitution) was/is unforgivable. Congress must investigate who benefited (besides Epstein) from the whitewashing of this crime.
    https://x.com/jkbjournalist/status/2003162097710952507

    What's the betting angle? It won't bring down Trump and most (all?) of his likely successors are too young to have been involved with Epstein.
    There’s a fracturing of the MAGA alliance.

    See the Israeli/Jews are responsible for child abuse/framing some of the GOP.



    My brain is in holiday mode so I don’t have the energy to write a thread on it this side of the new year.
    There’s an awful lot of antisemitism that’s appeared seemingly out of nowhere among the conservative commentator class in the US.

    One theory is that the person holding everything together in a relatively moderate fashion was Charlie Kirk.
    There's always been a lot of antisemitism on the right. What kept it in check for a period was that antisemitism was a useful weapon to use against the left.

    But in the US they're now onto the "revolution eating itself" stage of proceedings, where fighting the left is no longer the most important thing, but fighting each other to gain most of the spoils of victory is. This antisemitism has re-emerged as an identifier on the isolationism axis, I think, or just as a useful scapegoat.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 21,381
    IanB2 said:

    isam said:

    You Gov are always bad for Reform, but this must be the worst for some time

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    REF: 25% (-3)
    LAB: 20% (+2)
    CON: 19% (+2)
    LDM: 15% (+1)
    GRN: 15% (-2)
    SNP: 3% (-1)

    Via @YouGov, On 21-22 December,
    Changes w/ 14-15 December.


    https://x.com/electpoliticsuk/status/2003369188841443503?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    YouGov had a Reform 25% in late November. There's a clear sign of a small Tory recovery mirrored by Reform declining in the opinion poll average graph on Wikipedia.

    The unknown is whether this trend will be reinforced by campaigning for the May elections, or if that will interrupt it.

    Also, given the personal ambitions of many of those involved, what are the chances Kemi gets ditched after losing lots of councillors in May anyway?
    Barring immense change during the next few months, the story of election night is almost written already, as significant Reform and Green gains are surely nailed on. The competition is for who gets seen as the biggest loser, and there Labour already has a very good head start.
    Part of the question will be timing. The first results often create the story.

    I think Wales is still in doubt though. If Reform do come further off the boil then the big story might be a Plaid victory in Wales, rather than Reform doing very well there.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 24,042
    The IChemE is officially woke.

    They've sent an email to members saying "Happy Holidays".
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 84,666
    algarkirk said:

    On R4 Today this morning, a bit after 7.45 am I think, was a Robinson interview with one of Trump's long term mates, Chris Ruddy. It was the least challenging, most Trump friendly interview possible, all about his many virtues, tirelessness in activity and doing good, and his many triumphs for the good of humanity.

    Can this be linked to the BBC being sued by him?

    Possibly.
    Webb has always been a Trump apologist, verging on fanboi; Robinson not so much.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 40,154
    Tres said:

    IanB2 said:

    isam said:

    You Gov are always bad for Reform, but this must be the worst for some time

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    REF: 25% (-3)
    LAB: 20% (+2)
    CON: 19% (+2)
    LDM: 15% (+1)
    GRN: 15% (-2)
    SNP: 3% (-1)

    Via @YouGov, On 21-22 December,
    Changes w/ 14-15 December.


    https://x.com/electpoliticsuk/status/2003369188841443503?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    YouGov had a Reform 25% in late November. There's a clear sign of a small Tory recovery mirrored by Reform declining in the opinion poll average graph on Wikipedia.

    The unknown is whether this trend will be reinforced by campaigning for the May elections, or if that will interrupt it.

    Also, given the personal ambitions of many of those involved, what are the chances Kemi gets ditched after losing lots of councillors in May anyway?
    Barring immense change during the next few months, the story of election night is almost written already, as significant Reform and Green gains are surely nailed on. The competition is for who gets seen as the biggest loser, and there Labour already has a very good head start.
    Story of election night is now also dependent on which councils decide to do an overnight count. If councils are serious about saving money they should be waiting until Friday morning.
    It’s hard to see which councils Labour can hold on to, where there are all-elections, apart from Newham.

    They’re being hit on four fronts.

    In Muslim-majority wards, they’re shedding votes to Your Party.

    In trendy urban wards, they’re losing to Greens and Lib Dem’s.

    In well-heeled wards, they’re losing to the Conservatives.

    And in working class/Red Wall wards, they’re losing to Reform.

    They could easily lose 1,500 seats in May.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 63,338
    Sean_F said:

    Tres said:

    IanB2 said:

    isam said:

    You Gov are always bad for Reform, but this must be the worst for some time

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    REF: 25% (-3)
    LAB: 20% (+2)
    CON: 19% (+2)
    LDM: 15% (+1)
    GRN: 15% (-2)
    SNP: 3% (-1)

    Via @YouGov, On 21-22 December,
    Changes w/ 14-15 December.


    https://x.com/electpoliticsuk/status/2003369188841443503?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    YouGov had a Reform 25% in late November. There's a clear sign of a small Tory recovery mirrored by Reform declining in the opinion poll average graph on Wikipedia.

    The unknown is whether this trend will be reinforced by campaigning for the May elections, or if that will interrupt it.

    Also, given the personal ambitions of many of those involved, what are the chances Kemi gets ditched after losing lots of councillors in May anyway?
    Barring immense change during the next few months, the story of election night is almost written already, as significant Reform and Green gains are surely nailed on. The competition is for who gets seen as the biggest loser, and there Labour already has a very good head start.
    Story of election night is now also dependent on which councils decide to do an overnight count. If councils are serious about saving money they should be waiting until Friday morning.
    It’s hard to see which councils Labour can hold on to, where there are all-elections, apart from Newham.

    They’re being hit on four fronts.

    In Muslim-majority wards, they’re shedding votes to Your Party.

    In trendy urban wards, they’re losing to Greens and Lib Dem’s.

    In well-heeled wards, they’re losing to the Conservatives.

    And in working class/Red Wall wards, they’re losing to Reform.

    They could easily lose 1,500 seats in May.
    Not if they cancel ALL the elections ;)
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 84,666

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    This has a distinct echo of the topic that cannot be mentioned.

    It only took 20 years. The FBI labeling the case as a “child prostitution” case back in 2005 — and the Palm Beach state attorney telling these victims they could be arrested themselves (for prostitution) was/is unforgivable. Congress must investigate who benefited (besides Epstein) from the whitewashing of this crime.
    https://x.com/jkbjournalist/status/2003162097710952507

    What's the betting angle? It won't bring down Trump and most (all?) of his likely successors are too young to have been involved with Epstein.
    Does there need to be a betting angle ?

    FWIW, I think their complicity in trying to bury this to protect Trump will be one of the things which will doom any Republican candidate (no one who repudiates MAGA will get the nomination) in 2028.
    Yes because if there are political consequences there will be a betting angle so if there is no betting angle, there's nothing. In Britain, the Epstein scandal has brought down a senior member of the Royal Family. There, nothing.

    Now, the way the Trump White House switched so quickly and unexpectedly from releasing the lot to almost nothing does make me think they did discover a hidden bombshell very late on, but so far it's not gone off, and is most unlikely to involve Trump himself.
    Why 'most unlikely' ?
    Given Trump's known proclivities, and their long association, it seems entirely possible.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 40,154

    IanB2 said:

    isam said:

    You Gov are always bad for Reform, but this must be the worst for some time

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    REF: 25% (-3)
    LAB: 20% (+2)
    CON: 19% (+2)
    LDM: 15% (+1)
    GRN: 15% (-2)
    SNP: 3% (-1)

    Via @YouGov, On 21-22 December,
    Changes w/ 14-15 December.


    https://x.com/electpoliticsuk/status/2003369188841443503?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    YouGov had a Reform 25% in late November. There's a clear sign of a small Tory recovery mirrored by Reform declining in the opinion poll average graph on Wikipedia.

    The unknown is whether this trend will be reinforced by campaigning for the May elections, or if that will interrupt it.

    Also, given the personal ambitions of many of those involved, what are the chances Kemi gets ditched after losing lots of councillors in May anyway?
    Barring immense change during the next few months, the story of election night is almost written already, as significant Reform and Green gains are surely nailed on. The competition is for who gets seen as the biggest loser, and there Labour already has a very good head start.
    Part of the question will be timing. The first results often create the story.

    I think Wales is still in doubt though. If Reform do come further off the boil then the big story might be a Plaid victory in Wales, rather than Reform doing very well there.
    Sunderland voting in a Reform council will be the first news story. Then will come some London boroughs.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 21,681
    isam said:

    You Gov are always bad for Reform, but this must be the worst for some time

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    REF: 25% (-3)
    LAB: 20% (+2)
    CON: 19% (+2)
    LDM: 15% (+1)
    GRN: 15% (-2)
    SNP: 3% (-1)

    Via @YouGov, On 21-22 December,
    Changes w/ 14-15 December.


    https://x.com/electpoliticsuk/status/2003369188841443503?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    They're dying on their feet. Who knew? Their voters are thick as planks so it's taking them a bit longer than normal to work out that they're an empty vessel led by a racist sleazeball and a gang of failed Tories. They even manage to look old fashioned........

    The new kids on the block are the Greens....

  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 15,095

    The IChemE is officially woke.

    They've sent an email to members saying "Happy Holidays".

    That's not too bad, but the first person to wish me a happy Winterval gets it straight between the eyes.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 15,741
    Morning all :)

    YouGov suggests the insurgent parties are not going to have an easy time against the "old guard".

    Looking at Lab/Con/LD vs Ref/Green that's a split of 54-40 on YouGov and 53-40 on the latest More In Common while Find Out Now is reversed at 43-50 - in July 2024 it was 69-21 so a sizeable swing to Reform/Green. If anything, Find Out Now is the outlier on that perspective.

    I still wonder if these polls are accuarately reflecting some of the voting patterns in Inner London and other cities - the various pro-
    Palestine Independent parties did well in 2024 (though not everywhere) and it wouldn't surprise me if their supporters weren't as well profiled in polling sampling and methodology as those of other parties.
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