politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Following Tony’s offer to do what he can to help LAB here’s

bigjohnowls said:

I would rather catch EBOLA than have an offer of help from Toxic Tony

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Eddie Redmayne

Tykejohnno said:

Daily Mirror ✔ @DailyMirror

Ed Miliband to promise extra two weeks’ paid paternity leave for new dads http://mirr.im/1M3zhuz pic.twitter.com/dxiRkNbnei

TheScreamingEagles said:

bigjohnowls said:

I would rather catch EBOLA than have an offer of help from Toxic Tony

Toxic Tony?

Blair's net rating with Ipsos-Mori when he stood down as PM was minus 27

Ed's rating last month was minus 35.

Can you explain how Ed Miliband managed to be even more unpopular than Blair, without lying about invading a foreign country and killing 100,000 natives?

Ed Miliband came into conflict with business again on Sunday night as the Labour leader’s plans to extend fathers’ paternity rights was attacked as a “tax on business”.

Labour’s plans to give fathers a month’s paid leave and increase the minimum level of paternity pay was denounced by the British Chamber of Commerce as an attempt to woo voters to the detriment of small and medium-sized businesses.

The IPPR estimates that Labour’s policy will cost £150m a year. Labour said the cost would be more than offset by reduced tax credits for child care on the back of the party’s plans to extend free childcare to three- and four-year-olds to 25 hours a week.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Grandiose said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Grandiose said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Grandiose said:

ZenPagan said:

Grandiose said:

ZenPagan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SandyRentool said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

kle4 said:

GIN1138 said:

I live in a safe Con seat... Nobody cares about me!

I feel your pain. I only got 1 leaflet from Con last time, 2 from the LDs, 1 from UKIP, and nothing from Labour. I'm hopeful even though it is not a target seat for them I get some more UKIP activity this time, they were pretty active for the Euro elections and I even missed a canvasser from them a few months back! I was shattered to have missed it, given no-one has ever bothered before.

After only living in safe seats and a Labour shitehole, I now live in the key marginal of Sheffield Hallam

AND IT IS BLOODY EXCITING.

My vote finally counts.

Speaking as someone who fell into the trap last time, whatever you do don't vote tactically for the LibDems!

I think I'm going to spoil my ballot and write" "fruitcakes, loonies and closet racists, mostly" next to UKIP

And what will you write against the tory candidate. Racist because he supports an immigration policy that favours white europeans? Fruitcake and loon because he supports Camerons idiotic encryption policy?

DNFTT

Maybe I am naive but DFNTT does not translate to me

"Do not feed the trolls"

TSE clearly does not plan to actually do that, he's just trying to get a reaction.

You need a sense of humour.

Don't worry TSE!

I get it, but Zen did sound worked up...

Can you techies come up with a universal symbol for sarcasm on the internet?

I mean if we can send humans to the moon...

"you techies"

Policemen starting to look younger TSE?

I thought you worked in the IT profession, my apologies if you don't.

That said I am going through an age related crisis.

Tykejohnno said:

Andrew Neil ✔ @afneil

Rotherham -- it gets worse
http://www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/news/main-topics/general-news/exclusive-mp-and-home-office-failed-to-act-on-rotherham-grooming-11-years-ago-1-6913834 …

TheScreamingEagles said:

Paging Dr Fox

Leicester City Football Club would like to clarify its position relative to its manager, Nigel Pearson.

Contrary to media speculation on Sunday evening, Nigel remains the Club’s First Team Manager. Reports to the contrary are inaccurate and without foundation

http://www.lcfc.com/news/article/leicester-city-confirms-nigel-pearsons-position-2256316.aspx

No_Offence_Alan said:

NickPalmer said:

kle4 said:

GIN1138 said:

I live in a safe Con seat... Nobody cares about me!

I feel your pain. I only got 1 leaflet from Con last time, 2 from the LDs, 1 from UKIP, and nothing from Labour. I'm hopeful even though it is not a target seat for them I get some more UKIP activity this time, they were pretty active for the Euro elections and I even missed a canvasser from them a few months back! I was shattered to have missed it, given no-one has ever bothered before.

Marginals are very different. We're on our third round of canvassing every street since the last election (though obviously not everyone is in each time, and some are mysteriously never in). It does give a good feel for movements in sentiment - you can feel tides moving in and out. In my experience, around 75% nearly always say the same thing (give or take priods of don't knowing) over a 20-year period, but 25% are genuinely more fluid, and occasionally you get an abrupt switch when someone who was always X suddenly hates X because of one issue, often something quite apparently inconsequential like a supermarket getting planning permission or a councillor not answering a letter.

Has there been an Ashcroft poll of Broxtowe yet? it would be interesting to see the "voter contact" percentages for the different parties.

HYUFD said:

A 2008 newsnight poll of 27,000 people had the best postwar PMs had Churchill and Attlee and Thatcher as the top 3 and Home, Eden and Brown as the worst

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Historical_rankings_of_Prime_Ministers_of_the_United_Kingdom

TheScreamingEagles said:

Paging Dr Fox

Leicester City Football Club would like to clarify its position relative to its manager, Nigel Pearson.

Contrary to media speculation on Sunday evening, Nigel remains the Club’s First Team Manager. Reports to the contrary are inaccurate and without foundation

http://www.lcfc.com/news/article/leicester-city-confirms-nigel-pearsons-position-2256316.aspx

dr_spyn said:

BBC Breaking News ‏@BBCBreaking 49s50 seconds ago
Australian Liberal MPs vote against removing Tony Abbott as leader and prime minister. http://bbc.in/1C7Wfsc

HYUFD said:

Abbott survives, for now, spill motion defeated 61-39
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2015/02/08/newspoll-57-43-to-labor/?comment_page=8/#comments

Purseybear said:

SquareRoot said:

I doubt Ed could have had a worse day. Why on earth would Tony Blair offer anything to Labour? Blair in the background would like having 90 days of your mother in law staying with you.

But every day seems to be a 'worse' day for Miliband, with just a gentle slip in the polls month on month to show for it. Perhaps it will turn out like Black Wednesday when the slide didn''t take place until later. British politics is a bit like a large super tanker. It takes time for it to turn, but once it does it's bloody hard to bring it back. From a betting point of view that makes things more tricky. Ideally you need to be aware of the move before a signal has even passed to the rudder.

TheScreamingEagles said:

No_Offence_Alan said:

NickPalmer said:

kle4 said:

GIN1138 said:

I live in a safe Con seat... Nobody cares about me!

I feel your pain. I only got 1 leaflet from Con last time, 2 from the LDs, 1 from UKIP, and nothing from Labour. I'm hopeful even though it is not a target seat for them I get some more UKIP activity this time, they were pretty active for the Euro elections and I even missed a canvasser from them a few months back! I was shattered to have missed it, given no-one has ever bothered before.

Marginals are very different. We're on our third round of canvassing every street since the last election (though obviously not everyone is in each time, and some are mysteriously never in). It does give a good feel for movements in sentiment - you can feel tides moving in and out. In my experience, around 75% nearly always say the same thing (give or take priods of don't knowing) over a 20-year period, but 25% are genuinely more fluid, and occasionally you get an abrupt switch when someone who was always X suddenly hates X because of one issue, often something quite apparently inconsequential like a supermarket getting planning permission or a councillor not answering a letter.

Has there been an Ashcroft poll of Broxtowe yet? it would be interesting to see the "voter contact" percentages for the different parties.

He polled Broxtowe last April and July

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/01/broxtowe/

TheScreamingEagles said:

LD Hold Redcar?

From the Sun

A TRADE union chief has savaged Labour for “betraying” the working class — and revealed he is joining the GREENS.

Peter Pinkney, president of the RMT, will stand for the Green Party at the general election in Redcar, near Middlesbrough.

TheScreamingEagles said:

LD Hold Redcar?
.

Richard_Nabavi said:

Smarmeron said:

@Speedy
Top story on the Beeb and it seems to be being serialized in the Guardian to co-inside with the Panorama programme.

Given that this is a re-hash of a 2012 story, that tells you a lot about the BBC.

They are doing their very best to help Labour. For the last five years they've been running scare stories about The Cuts. That didn't have much impact, so this winter they've been desperately trying to find disaster stories about the NHS. A few days ago they invented a nice little story about care for the elderly, based on an assumption which even the arts graduates who dominate the place must have realised was absolutely ludicrous, namely that every 65-year old needs care. Tonight's story ("in collaboration with the Guardian" - well, well, what a surprise) is a classic of BBC bias, somehow managing to mention the Lord Green is a Conservative peer, the kind of detail they are adept at omitting to mention in relation to Labour.

Richard_Nabavi said:

Smarmeron said:

@Speedy
Top story on the Beeb and it seems to be being serialized in the Guardian to co-inside with the Panorama programme.

Given that this is a re-hash of a 2012 story, that tells you a lot about the BBC.

They are doing their very best to help Labour. For the last five years they've been running scare stories about The Cuts. That didn't have much impact, so this winter they've been desperately trying to find disaster stories about the NHS. A few days ago they invented a nice little story about care for the elderly, based on an assumption which even the arts graduates who dominate the place must have realised was absolutely ludicrous, namely that every 65-year old needs care. Tonight's story ("in collaboration with the Guardian" - well, well, what a surprise) is a classic of BBC bias, somehow managing to mention the Lord Green is a Conservative peer, the kind of detail they are adept at omitting to mention in relation to Labour.

No_Offence_Alan said:

Has there been an Ashcroft poll of Broxtowe yet? it would be interesting to see the "voter contact" percentages for the different parties.

nigel4england said:

UKIP 11/4 in Rotherham, would love to see it but probably too skinny to warrant a bet

Smarmeron said:

@Richard_Nabavi
A red conspiracy......That must be it.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Can't zoom in properly.

Either 40 or 60 Labour MPs are employing staff on zero hour contracts

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B9Wy7JXCcAAhYbk.jpg

kle4 said:

Not buying it. It's one thing to suggest they are not doing enough to maintain bias, but framing it as in essence a deliberate conspiracy and operation as open as a political campaign takes it a step too far for me.

kle4 said:

Smarmeron said:

@kle4
It appears they have sorted out the fragments and intend to make some of the names public.

Oh, ok. Eh, I think the Tories'll be fine from this one then, people already expect rotten things from places like HSBC, and how many people will get to the guts of the story enough to see the Tory Peer connection unless they already hate the Tories?

TCPoliticalBetting said:

nigel4england said:

MikeK said:

Tykejohnno said:

Andrew Neil ✔ @afneil

Rotherham -- it gets worse
http://www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/news/main-topics/general-news/exclusive-mp-and-home-office-failed-to-act-on-rotherham-grooming-11-years-ago-1-6913834 …

I posted exactly this hours ago. I guess it needs Andrew Neil name to make PBers take notice.

The delightful MacShane, too busy producing bogus invoices to notice 1,400 children being raped on his patch.
Vote Labour, get scum like MacShane

Yes a man distracted by his love for the EC.

nigel4england said:

bigjohnowls said:

Tories love a bit of tax avoidance though don't they

So do Ed and David, and if Ed carries on with this it won't be long before his families tax affairs hit the headlines.

compouter2 said:

Tykejohnno said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

LD Hold Redcar?

From the Sun

A TRADE union chief has savaged Labour for “betraying” the working class — and revealed he is joining the GREENS.

Peter Pinkney, president of the RMT, will stand for the Green Party at the general election in Redcar, near Middlesbrough.

Yes,but all these attacks on labour and they still ahead in the polls.

Not a labour supporter but just telling the facts.

Old habits die hard ;-)

The old force is still strong with you TJ.

Danny565 said:

kle4 said:

Smarmeron said:

@kle4
It appears they have sorted out the fragments and intend to make some of the names public.

Oh, ok. Eh, I think the Tories'll be fine from this one then, people already expect rotten things from places like HSBC, and how many people will get to the guts of the story enough to see the Tory Peer connection unless they already hate the Tories?

I don't think it's so much that people would associate it with the Tories, it's more that it gives Ed (theoretically) a chance to push this issue to the top of the agenda and say he's the only one who's prepared to deal with it. "Look at all these rich people clubbing together and trying to get out of their responsibilities to pay their taxes to society, at a time when everyone else is being punished and having their living standards cut, it's just another example of why the 'vested interests' need to be taken on"

Of course, whether he has either the guts to try it or the ability to do it persuasively iis another matter.

nigel4england said:

kle4 said:

nigel4england said:

kle4 said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Smarmeron said:

@Speedy
Top story on the Beeb and it seems to be being serialized in the Guardian to co-inside with the Panorama programme.

Given that this is a re-hash of a 2012 story, that tells you a lot about the BBC.

They are doing their very best to help Labour. For the last five years they've been running scare stories about The Cuts. That didn't have much impact, so this winter they've been desperately trying to find disaster stories about the NHS. A few days ago they invented a nice little story about care for the elderly, based on an assumption which even the arts graduates who dominate the place must have realised was absolutely ludicrous, namely that every 65-year old needs care. Tonight's story ("in collaboration with the Guardian" - well, well, what a surprise) is a classic of BBC bias, somehow managing to mention the Lord Green is a Conservative peer, the kind of detail they are adept at omitting to mention in relation to Labour.

Not buying it. It's one thing to suggest they are not doing enough to maintain bias, but framing it as in essence a deliberate conspiracy and operation as open as a political campaign takes it a step too far for me.

That said, I do recall seeing this story play out a few years ago, and I cannot see in the story why it is a big deal again, what really new information there is

I don't really see how it helps Labour much though even with the reference to a Tory Peer (which since he was in government until 2013 is hardly irrelevant) as these messes happen under their watch too and everyone knows it.

How to contradict yourself in one easy lesson.

I prefer to think of it as a measured, but swayable opinion - Tory whinges about a corrupt, openly hostile BBC are exaggerated, well, whinges, but no-one would deny there is not a lefty leaning aspect to them, it's a question of how well they can manage to attempt a neutral position, or if they are. The conspiracy theorists don't seem to believe the BBC make any attempt, and every single word phrasing they don't like is evidence of that and why the licence fee is nonsense...but that does not mean they are always wrong.

In short, the hyperbole was a bit much for me is all, but that doesn't mean the story might not be a bit biased, I was still weighing up my opinion on that, but it certainly isn't as drastic as the initial nonsense claims of open attacks on a party.

Yes it is.

Charles said:

Q.8 I would like to ask whether any of the main political parties have contacted you over the last few weeks - whether by delivering leaflets ornewspapers, sending personally addressed letters, emailing, telephoning you at home or knocking on your door. Have you heard in any of these ways from...?

Labour: 21%
The Conservatives: 20%

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/Broxtowe-July-2014-Full-tables.pdf

So perhaps Nick is kidding himself about the superiority of the Labour ground game (or perhaps voters don't actually notice either way).

bigjohnowls said:

nigel4england said:

bigjohnowls said:

Tories love a bit of tax avoidance though don't they

So do Ed and David, and if Ed carries on with this it won't be long before his families tax affairs hit the headlines.

How much tax has Ed avoided?

Tories easy target on this because they love a bit of tax avoidance

bigjohnowls said:

nigel4england said:

bigjohnowls said:

nigel4england said:

bigjohnowls said:

Tories love a bit of tax avoidance though don't they

So do Ed and David, and if Ed carries on with this it won't be long before his families tax affairs hit the headlines.

How much tax has Ed avoided?

Tories easy target on this because they love a bit of tax avoidance

So do your lot, see Margaret Hodge/Stemcor

Perhaps the Tories are seen as slightly worse

What do you think?

Peerage for the tax avoider in chief