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We need to talk about the size of Nigel Farage’s membership – politicalbetting.com

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  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,970
    kinabalu said:

    If I may toss a cherry into the trifle - if individual countries all start tooling up to the max to defend themselves against allcomers that's going to lead to nothing good at all.

    Are you starting something?
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,970
    rcs1000 said:

    kinabalu said:

    I have a bad feeling Trump will support this.

    Russia wants to reset Finland's NATO membership - Lavrov addressed his words directly to Finland’s FM Valtonen.

    Russia’s demands for "security" apply not only to Ukraine but also elsewhere in Europe and the NATO defence alliance, as well as to Finland and Sweden, by seeking to reset Finland's and Sweden's recent NATO memberships and demanding a return to the situation of 1997.


    https://x.com/SariArhoHavren/status/1999858063554027709

    Regardless of what treaties say, would the US under this administration respond militarily to a Russian attack on any European NATO country?
    Quite: it's time for Europe (and Canada) to accept that NATO no longer exists.
    Nonsense. It’s the perfect organisation to defend the North Atlantic, it just might now have to push the U.S. out and defend the Canadian border and Greenland too.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 84,428
    biggles said:

    kinabalu said:

    If I may toss a cherry into the trifle - if individual countries all start tooling up to the max to defend themselves against allcomers that's going to lead to nothing good at all.

    Are you starting something?
    Isn't it sherry one chucks into trifle ?
    Cherries are for a quite different desert.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 7,989
    edited December 13

    FF43 said:

    So much to unpack in this Daily Mail opinion piece

    The great Polish exodus: The arrival of 100,000s of Poles changed the face of Britain, but now they're returning home in droves for a better life in their low-tax, booming homeland. Could there be a more damning indictment of our decline?

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-15379789/Polish-exodus-arrival-Britain-tax.html

    This was my favourite section, Brexiteers just cannot admit the truth, I mean I wonder what caused the 'visa anxiety'? Was there some change?

    'Visa anxiety' – the fear that they won't be able to work in Britain and visit Poland easily – is another often stated reason. 'The Poles are also more geared to family than we are,' says Jephcott, who is married to one.
    The point was to slam the door in foreigners faces.

    If said foreigners just walk, where's the fun in that?
    Immigration is up, not down.

    After a period of zero-friction immigration from a given country, followed by a period of high-friction immigration rules for the same country, you would of course expect emmigration to outweigh immigration, simply due to natural churn. Mawkish language doesn't illuminate.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 7,927
    Nigelb said:

    Armed ICE agents trapped U.S. citizens in a restaurant and demanded their papers. Do you carry your papers?

    Federal agents walked into East African restaurants in Cedar-Riverside Tuesday. They closed and blocked the doors. Then they demanded to see everyone’s papers.

    Every single person was a U.S. citizen.

    AP videographer/journalist and Council Member Jamal Osman witnessed it. Osman has been warning his Somali constituents to carry their passports everywhere...

    https://x.com/LittleCongress/status/1999866399909404935

    Papers please, in the land of the free..

    I saw something darkly amusing where people are phoning the ICE hotline reporting an undocumented illegal immigrant hiding in their neighbour’s attic by the name of Anne Frank to waste ICE time.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,970

    I have a bad feeling Trump will support this.

    Russia wants to reset Finland's NATO membership - Lavrov addressed his words directly to Finland’s FM Valtonen.

    Russia’s demands for "security" apply not only to Ukraine but also elsewhere in Europe and the NATO defence alliance, as well as to Finland and Sweden, by seeking to reset Finland's and Sweden's recent NATO memberships and demanding a return to the situation of 1997.


    https://x.com/SariArhoHavren/status/1999858063554027709

    I was about to post that saying you wish to leave Europe largely to itself, and also saying you wish to determine who stays in NATO, are incoherent positions. I then remembered this is Trump, so the coherency of his positions is irrelevant and you are correct, he appears to have bought the Russian narrative about NATO expansion and “root causes”.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 47,017
    edited December 13
    Nigelb said:

    biggles said:

    kinabalu said:

    If I may toss a cherry into the trifle - if individual countries all start tooling up to the max to defend themselves against allcomers that's going to lead to nothing good at all.

    Are you starting something?
    Isn't it sherry one chucks into trifle ?
    Cherries are for a quite different desert.
    It's a single glacé cherry that one *places* onto trifle.

    My late mother's sherry trifle for Christmas dinner, as an alternative or complement to clootie dumpling, had plenty of cream, and sherry, and ratafia biscuits, and home-made raspberry jam, and home-made egg custard, and several dozen dragees, but just one cherry.

    Edit: also some candied angelica stem pieces.

    Christmases have never been the same since she departed.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 48,377
    boulay said:

    kinabalu said:

    I have a bad feeling Trump will support this.

    Russia wants to reset Finland's NATO membership - Lavrov addressed his words directly to Finland’s FM Valtonen.

    Russia’s demands for "security" apply not only to Ukraine but also elsewhere in Europe and the NATO defence alliance, as well as to Finland and Sweden, by seeking to reset Finland's and Sweden's recent NATO memberships and demanding a return to the situation of 1997.


    https://x.com/SariArhoHavren/status/1999858063554027709

    Regardless of what treaties say, would the US under this administration respond militarily to a Russian attack on any European NATO country?
    More interesting if Russia attacked the other non-European country, Canada. Would Trump join in and carve it up under the cover of restoring security?
    Lol probably.

    But my actual take is Trump wants to play the big man without risk. He's keen to talk tough, gets a massive buzz from the idea he commands this shock and awe military, but he'll only use it in soft David v Goliath situations. Eg Iran, Houthis, Venezuela, Cuba etc.

    He's fundamentally unserious about war and geopolitics.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 15,692
    carnforth said:

    FF43 said:

    carnforth said:

    FF43 said:

    The Reform led Council in Leicestershire brought in consultants at a cost of £1.4 million to find cost millions of pounds of cost savings. They have actually found £1 million of potential savings.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ckgdk3xrrw4o

    Per year? Or in total? It does not say.

    Reform financial illiteracy vs BBC financial illiteracy? Fight!
    I assume recurring savings, but I suspect "savings" are probably the elimination of lower priority services rather than pure waste. Whereas the consultants probably are pure waste. Also the supposed savings are potential and may not happen while the consultants are upfront cost.
    Sure, but the typical mutiple is 25x for one year vs permanent savings. So £25m vs £1.4m. In theory.

    Councils have statutory duties, and other stuff. Cutting the other stuff is easy. Delivering the statutory stuff more efficiently is hard. Both are probably swamped by national funding trends. And so, local democracy is rather limited in effect.
    The problem comes when Councils are forced by Government to take on more statutory duties without any additional resources. Social care for adults and children is the current "hot potato" - a decade or more ago, public health information and provision was passed from the NHS to County and Unitary Councils without a penny of additional resources.

    The Councils had to take on the staff and find office space for them as well as for the promotional material, again with no financial support.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 76,406

    I see MAHA is going well.

    This is something that might damage Reform here given their support from platforming antivaxxers.




    That's what you get when vaccine coverage becomes spotty.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 48,377
    biggles said:

    kinabalu said:

    If I may toss a cherry into the trifle - if individual countries all start tooling up to the max to defend themselves against allcomers that's going to lead to nothing good at all.

    Are you starting something?
    Gotta be ... 🙂
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 48,377

    ...

    kinabalu said:

    rcs1000 said:

    kinabalu said:

    I have a bad feeling Trump will support this.

    Russia wants to reset Finland's NATO membership - Lavrov addressed his words directly to Finland’s FM Valtonen.

    Russia’s demands for "security" apply not only to Ukraine but also elsewhere in Europe and the NATO defence alliance, as well as to Finland and Sweden, by seeking to reset Finland's and Sweden's recent NATO memberships and demanding a return to the situation of 1997.


    https://x.com/SariArhoHavren/status/1999858063554027709

    Regardless of what treaties say, would the US under this administration respond militarily to a Russian attack on any European NATO country?
    Quite: it's time for Europe (and Canada) to accept that NATO no longer exists.
    Seems clear. I assume European leaders are factoring this in as a probable 'going forward' scenario although not yet able to articulate it in public. It's another aspect of the uncomfortable dynamic. America shoots its mouth off, Europe goes through convolutions so as not to offend. Objective, put off the evil day of US withdrawal for as long as possible. Backstop hope, Trump is kneecapped in the midterms and a Dem beats Vance/Maga in 28.
    Free and fair elections are so last year.
    Wahay! Pete.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 54,382
    ydoethur said:

    I see MAHA is going well.

    This is something that might damage Reform here given their support from platforming antivaxxers.




    That's what you get when vaccine coverage becomes spotty.
    It certainly was a rash move by RFK.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 15,692
    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    FF43 said:

    The Reform led Council in Leicestershire brought in consultants at a cost of £1.4 million to find cost millions of pounds of cost savings. They have actually found £1 million of potential savings.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ckgdk3xrrw4o

    Maybe they'll find more.
    Maybe the "savings" will not materialise.

    Over the last 16 years Leics CC has delivered £290 million in savings/cuts, so there are ever diminishing returns from further rounds of savings. Without Council tax rises the CC is looking at a deficit of £106 million in 4 years time, so these supposed £1 million in annual savings would only reduce it trivially.

    So I am expecting the 5% maximum council tax increase permitted.
    In truth, and whisper it quietly, but the Conservative administrations at some of the Counties, which were swept away by the Reform tsunami in May, were actually very well run and the notion created by Reform there was a huge amount of potential savings to be made was just nonsense.

    Now, we see the Reform sympathisers backpedalling frantically on this as another of their vacuous claims is shown to be rubbish.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 76,406
    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    I see MAHA is going well.

    This is something that might damage Reform here given their support from platforming antivaxxers.




    That's what you get when vaccine coverage becomes spotty.
    It certainly was a rash move by RFK.
    Is he dizzy due to success?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 68,502
    edited December 13
    Good evening

    Good to see Badenoch above Farage in tonight's poll

    https://x.com/i/status/1999941143027740821

    And another policy

    Badenoch to ditch ban on sale of ICE cars in 2030

    The EU is looking at extending it to 2040 apparently
  • biggles said:

    kinabalu said:

    If I may toss a cherry into the trifle - if individual countries all start tooling up to the max to defend themselves against allcomers that's going to lead to nothing good at all.

    Are you starting something?
    Calm down! Calm down!
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 38,823
    "Election Maps UK
    @ElectionMapsUK

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    RFM: 31% (=)
    LAB: 20% (-1)
    CON: 18% (+1)
    LDM: 13% (+2)
    GRN: 12% (-1)
    SNP: 3% (=)

    Via @OpiniumResearch, 10-12 Dec
    Changes w/ 26-28 Nov."

    https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1999936388335300724
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 12,107
    edited December 13
    carnforth said:

    carnforth said:

    FF43 said:

    carnforth said:

    FF43 said:

    carnforth said:

    FF43 said:

    The Reform led Council in Leicestershire brought in consultants at a cost of £1.4 million to find cost millions of pounds of cost savings. They have actually found £1 million of potential savings.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ckgdk3xrrw4o

    Per year? Or in total? It does not say.

    Reform financial illiteracy vs BBC financial illiteracy? Fight!
    I assume recurring savings, but I suspect "savings" are probably the elimination of lower priority services rather than pure waste. Whereas the consultants probably are pure waste. Also the supposed savings are potential and may not happen while the consultants are upfront cost.
    Sure, but the typical mutiple is 25x for one year vs permanent savings. So £25m vs £1.4m. In theory.

    Councils have statutory duties, and other stuff. Cutting the other stuff is easy. Delivering the statutory stuff more efficiently is hard. Both are probably swamped by national funding trends. And so, local democracy is rather limited in effect.
    25 years seems an excessively long payback period.

    Just an observation.
    8x is the more normal multiplier
    I was working off the multiplier for capital vs income when it comes to, say, university endowments. Perhaps I'm wrong.
    25x implies a 4% yield which is about right for capital vs income

    A capital investment needs a minimum return of about 12% to cover the cost of capital hence 8x (a 12.5% yield)
    Right, but councils spending doesn't (normally?) come from borrowing.
    Debt costs are a lot lower. It’s really about what the expected return on investment.

    Spending £1.4m to save £1m annually seems very reasonable. Spending £6-8m to save £1m annually would be ok. Of course in this case the £1.4m is just the cost of the consultants - we don’t know how much it will cost to close whatever they plan to do
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 125,228
    edited December 13
    From that Opinium poll.

    Brexit and Europe: Appetite for closer ties

    More than half of adults (56%) want the UK to either rejoin the EU (31%) or move to a closer relationship (25%). Only 14% want a more distant relationship.

    Significantly, a decade after the referendum, re-engagement with Europe is seen as increasingly acceptable:

    Rejoining the Customs Union: +24 net acceptable
    Rejoining the Single Market: +20
    Rejoining the EU: +11

    A shift suggesting the long-term politics of Brexit remain unsettled.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 54,382
    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    ydoethur said:

    I see MAHA is going well.

    This is something that might damage Reform here given their support from platforming antivaxxers.




    That's what you get when vaccine coverage becomes spotty.
    It certainly was a rash move by RFK.
    Is he dizzy due to success?
    He is no longer immune to criticism, particularly when it goes viral.
  • Andy_JS said:

    "Election Maps UK
    @ElectionMapsUK

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    RFM: 31% (=)
    LAB: 20% (-1)
    CON: 18% (+1)
    LDM: 13% (+2)
    GRN: 12% (-1)
    SNP: 3% (=)

    Via @OpiniumResearch, 10-12 Dec
    Changes w/ 26-28 Nov."

    https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1999936388335300724

    Sleazy, broken Labour and Greens on the slide!
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 5,704

    carnforth said:

    carnforth said:

    FF43 said:

    carnforth said:

    FF43 said:

    carnforth said:

    FF43 said:

    The Reform led Council in Leicestershire brought in consultants at a cost of £1.4 million to find cost millions of pounds of cost savings. They have actually found £1 million of potential savings.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ckgdk3xrrw4o

    Per year? Or in total? It does not say.

    Reform financial illiteracy vs BBC financial illiteracy? Fight!
    I assume recurring savings, but I suspect "savings" are probably the elimination of lower priority services rather than pure waste. Whereas the consultants probably are pure waste. Also the supposed savings are potential and may not happen while the consultants are upfront cost.
    Sure, but the typical mutiple is 25x for one year vs permanent savings. So £25m vs £1.4m. In theory.

    Councils have statutory duties, and other stuff. Cutting the other stuff is easy. Delivering the statutory stuff more efficiently is hard. Both are probably swamped by national funding trends. And so, local democracy is rather limited in effect.
    25 years seems an excessively long payback period.

    Just an observation.
    8x is the more normal multiplier
    I was working off the multiplier for capital vs income when it comes to, say, university endowments. Perhaps I'm wrong.
    25x implies a 4% yield which is about right for capital vs income

    A capital investment needs a minimum return of about 12% to cover the cost of capital hence 8x (a 12.5% yield)
    Right, but councils spending doesn't (normally?) come from borrowing.
    Debt costs are a lot lower. It’s really about what the expected return on investment.

    Spending £1.4m to save £1m annually seems very reasonable. Spending £6-8m to save £1m annually would be ok. Of course in this case the £1.4m is just the cost of the consultants - we don’t know how much it will cost to close whatever they plan to do
    Now I'm reminded of this from yesterdays news :

    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cjdrryge7ego

    Police are investigating after a council sold a college building worth £4.6m for just £1, it has emerged.

    Peterborough City Council officers are "concerned" its disposal of the John Mansfield Centre (JMC) – occupied by City College Peterborough – to a charity in 2020 and "associated financial transactions were unlawful".

    After the sale, the council – which owns the college – paid rent of nearly £800,000 to the charity City College Peterborough Foundation (CCPF), but a cabinet report says there is "no evidence of any written lease or agreement for lease".

    Cambridgeshire Police said three people had been arrested on suspicion of misconduct in a public office. CCPF has been contacted by the BBC.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 5,704

    Good evening

    Good to see Badenoch above Farage in tonight's poll

    https://x.com/i/status/1999941143027740821

    And another policy

    Badenoch to ditch ban on sale of ICE cars in 2030

    The EU is looking at extending it to 2040 apparently

    Brave of Kemi to fall into line with the EU.
  • ohnotnow said:

    carnforth said:

    carnforth said:

    FF43 said:

    carnforth said:

    FF43 said:

    carnforth said:

    FF43 said:

    The Reform led Council in Leicestershire brought in consultants at a cost of £1.4 million to find cost millions of pounds of cost savings. They have actually found £1 million of potential savings.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ckgdk3xrrw4o

    Per year? Or in total? It does not say.

    Reform financial illiteracy vs BBC financial illiteracy? Fight!
    I assume recurring savings, but I suspect "savings" are probably the elimination of lower priority services rather than pure waste. Whereas the consultants probably are pure waste. Also the supposed savings are potential and may not happen while the consultants are upfront cost.
    Sure, but the typical mutiple is 25x for one year vs permanent savings. So £25m vs £1.4m. In theory.

    Councils have statutory duties, and other stuff. Cutting the other stuff is easy. Delivering the statutory stuff more efficiently is hard. Both are probably swamped by national funding trends. And so, local democracy is rather limited in effect.
    25 years seems an excessively long payback period.

    Just an observation.
    8x is the more normal multiplier
    I was working off the multiplier for capital vs income when it comes to, say, university endowments. Perhaps I'm wrong.
    25x implies a 4% yield which is about right for capital vs income

    A capital investment needs a minimum return of about 12% to cover the cost of capital hence 8x (a 12.5% yield)
    Right, but councils spending doesn't (normally?) come from borrowing.
    Debt costs are a lot lower. It’s really about what the expected return on investment.

    Spending £1.4m to save £1m annually seems very reasonable. Spending £6-8m to save £1m annually would be ok. Of course in this case the £1.4m is just the cost of the consultants - we don’t know how much it will cost to close whatever they plan to do
    Now I'm reminded of this from yesterdays news :

    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cjdrryge7ego

    Police are investigating after a council sold a college building worth £4.6m for just £1, it has emerged.

    Peterborough City Council officers are "concerned" its disposal of the John Mansfield Centre (JMC) – occupied by City College Peterborough – to a charity in 2020 and "associated financial transactions were unlawful".

    After the sale, the council – which owns the college – paid rent of nearly £800,000 to the charity City College Peterborough Foundation (CCPF), but a cabinet report says there is "no evidence of any written lease or agreement for lease".

    Cambridgeshire Police said three people had been arrested on suspicion of misconduct in a public office. CCPF has been contacted by the BBC.
    Is Dame Shirley Porter running Peterborough council?
  • ohnotnow said:

    Good evening

    Good to see Badenoch above Farage in tonight's poll

    https://x.com/i/status/1999941143027740821

    And another policy

    Badenoch to ditch ban on sale of ICE cars in 2030

    The EU is looking at extending it to 2040 apparently

    Brave of Kemi to fall into line with the EU.
    The EU have not announced the change as it is not resolved

    Badenoch has made a definitive decision

  • FF43FF43 Posts: 18,647

    FF43 said:

    So much to unpack in this Daily Mail opinion piece

    The great Polish exodus: The arrival of 100,000s of Poles changed the face of Britain, but now they're returning home in droves for a better life in their low-tax, booming homeland. Could there be a more damning indictment of our decline?

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-15379789/Polish-exodus-arrival-Britain-tax.html

    This was my favourite section, Brexiteers just cannot admit the truth, I mean I wonder what caused the 'visa anxiety'? Was there some change?

    'Visa anxiety' – the fear that they won't be able to work in Britain and visit Poland easily – is another often stated reason. 'The Poles are also more geared to family than we are,' says Jephcott, who is married to one.
    The point was to slam the door in foreigners faces.

    If said foreigners just walk, where's the fun in that?
    Yep. Poles doing what the Mail wants them to do: go away.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,674
    Nigelb said:

    Papers please, in the land of the free..

    It's the land of the free, not the land of the free-for-all.
  • Andy_JS said:

    "Election Maps UK
    @ElectionMapsUK

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    RFM: 31% (=)
    LAB: 20% (-1)
    CON: 18% (+1)
    LDM: 13% (+2)
    GRN: 12% (-1)
    SNP: 3% (=)

    Via @OpiniumResearch, 10-12 Dec
    Changes w/ 26-28 Nov."

    https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1999936388335300724

    This is the problem Tory MPs are having.

    Kemi Badenoch and her allies are pointing our her improving ratings yet the Tories are doing worse than 2024 (which was their worst general election defeat ever).

    The context makes it worse considering how badly Starmer/Reeves/Labour are polling.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,848
    boulay said:

    Nigelb said:

    Armed ICE agents trapped U.S. citizens in a restaurant and demanded their papers. Do you carry your papers?

    Federal agents walked into East African restaurants in Cedar-Riverside Tuesday. They closed and blocked the doors. Then they demanded to see everyone’s papers.

    Every single person was a U.S. citizen.

    AP videographer/journalist and Council Member Jamal Osman witnessed it. Osman has been warning his Somali constituents to carry their passports everywhere...

    https://x.com/LittleCongress/status/1999866399909404935

    Papers please, in the land of the free..

    I saw something darkly amusing where people are phoning the ICE hotline reporting an undocumented illegal immigrant hiding in their neighbour’s attic by the name of Anne Frank to waste ICE time.
    I'd fear for them when caught doing that.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,848

    Andy_JS said:

    "Election Maps UK
    @ElectionMapsUK

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    RFM: 31% (=)
    LAB: 20% (-1)
    CON: 18% (+1)
    LDM: 13% (+2)
    GRN: 12% (-1)
    SNP: 3% (=)

    Via @OpiniumResearch, 10-12 Dec
    Changes w/ 26-28 Nov."

    https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1999936388335300724

    This is the problem Tory MPs are having.

    Kemi Badenoch and her allies are pointing our her improving ratings yet the Tories are doing worse than 2024 (which was their worst general election defeat ever).

    The context makes it worse considering how badly Starmer/Reeves/Labour are polling.
    Outside a Reform implosion it's hard to see the Tories doing significantly better than under Kemi, maybe a few points, so it's not a surprise some are getting impatient.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,849
    ohnotnow said:

    Good evening

    Good to see Badenoch above Farage in tonight's poll

    https://x.com/i/status/1999941143027740821

    And another policy

    Badenoch to ditch ban on sale of ICE cars in 2030

    The EU is looking at extending it to 2040 apparently

    Brave of Kemi to fall into line with the EU.
    They are two different policies and I suspect the mule faced maenad understands neither of them.

    The UK policy is 100% ICE cars by 2030, which is easy because there won't be any non-hybrid ICE cars for sale from volume manufacturers by then.

    The EU policy is zero emissions by 2035, which is hard because that implies BEV/synthetic fuel.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,848

    I see MAHA is going well.

    This is something that might damage Reform here given their support from platforming antivaxxers.




    Unfortunately I don't think prospective voters tend to take in things like this in advance, especially if generally angry or dispirited enough. They have to see the consequences of such things.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 15,692

    Andy_JS said:

    "Election Maps UK
    @ElectionMapsUK

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    RFM: 31% (=)
    LAB: 20% (-1)
    CON: 18% (+1)
    LDM: 13% (+2)
    GRN: 12% (-1)
    SNP: 3% (=)

    Via @OpiniumResearch, 10-12 Dec
    Changes w/ 26-28 Nov."

    https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1999936388335300724

    This is the problem Tory MPs are having.

    Kemi Badenoch and her allies are pointing our her improving ratings yet the Tories are doing worse than 2024 (which was their worst general election defeat ever).

    The context makes it worse considering how badly Starmer/Reeves/Labour are polling.
    Those numbers would mean a landslide for Farage even more "loveless" than the one Starmer got.

    Compared with the Opinium poll the weekend before Christmas twelve months ago:

    Reform +9
    Labour -9
    Conservatives -5
    Liberal Democrats +2
    Greens +2

    I think that's the message of the political year 2025 - final twists and turns notwithstanding.
  • isamisam Posts: 43,220

    Andy_JS said:

    "Election Maps UK
    @ElectionMapsUK

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    RFM: 31% (=)
    LAB: 20% (-1)
    CON: 18% (+1)
    LDM: 13% (+2)
    GRN: 12% (-1)
    SNP: 3% (=)

    Via @OpiniumResearch, 10-12 Dec
    Changes w/ 26-28 Nov."

    https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1999936388335300724

    This is the problem Tory MPs are having.

    Kemi Badenoch and her allies are pointing our her improving ratings yet the Tories are doing worse than 2024 (which was their worst general election defeat ever).

    The context makes it worse considering how badly Starmer/Reeves/Labour are polling.
    A strange one alright, but a leader who is more popular than their party is surely not in danger of being replaced?
  • Dura_Ace said:

    ohnotnow said:

    Good evening

    Good to see Badenoch above Farage in tonight's poll

    https://x.com/i/status/1999941143027740821

    And another policy

    Badenoch to ditch ban on sale of ICE cars in 2030

    The EU is looking at extending it to 2040 apparently

    Brave of Kemi to fall into line with the EU.
    They are two different policies and I suspect the mule faced maenad understands neither of them.

    The UK policy is 100% ICE cars by 2030, which is easy because there won't be any non-hybrid ICE cars for sale from volume manufacturers by then.

    The EU policy is zero emissions by 2035, which is hard because that implies BEV/synthetic fuel.
    https://www.autoexpress.co.uk/news/368488/eu-2035-petrol-and-diesel-car-ban-be-scrapped-will-uk-follow
  • isam said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Election Maps UK
    @ElectionMapsUK

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    RFM: 31% (=)
    LAB: 20% (-1)
    CON: 18% (+1)
    LDM: 13% (+2)
    GRN: 12% (-1)
    SNP: 3% (=)

    Via @OpiniumResearch, 10-12 Dec
    Changes w/ 26-28 Nov."

    https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1999936388335300724

    This is the problem Tory MPs are having.

    Kemi Badenoch and her allies are pointing our her improving ratings yet the Tories are doing worse than 2024 (which was their worst general election defeat ever).

    The context makes it worse considering how badly Starmer/Reeves/Labour are polling.
    A strange one alright, but a leader who is more popular than their party is surely not in danger of being replaced?
    Look at the chart in this header.

    It is in the nature of Tory MPs to replace leaders.

    https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2025/12/08/the-tory-scorpion-and-kemi-the-frog/
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 7,128
    ydoethur said:

    I see MAHA is going well.

    This is something that might damage Reform here given their support from platforming antivaxxers.




    That's what you get when vaccine coverage becomes spotty.
    That’s a big increase, although the 2020 figure was pretty measly.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,849

    Andy_JS said:

    "Election Maps UK
    @ElectionMapsUK

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    RFM: 31% (=)
    LAB: 20% (-1)
    CON: 18% (+1)
    LDM: 13% (+2)
    GRN: 12% (-1)
    SNP: 3% (=)

    Via @OpiniumResearch, 10-12 Dec
    Changes w/ 26-28 Nov."

    https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1999936388335300724

    This is the problem Tory MPs are having.

    Kemi Badenoch and her allies are pointing our her improving ratings yet the Tories are doing worse than 2024 (which was their worst general election defeat ever).
    She was an insane choice given the situation the tories found themselves in after the GE.
  • Dura_Ace said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Election Maps UK
    @ElectionMapsUK

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    RFM: 31% (=)
    LAB: 20% (-1)
    CON: 18% (+1)
    LDM: 13% (+2)
    GRN: 12% (-1)
    SNP: 3% (=)

    Via @OpiniumResearch, 10-12 Dec
    Changes w/ 26-28 Nov."

    https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1999936388335300724

    This is the problem Tory MPs are having.

    Kemi Badenoch and her allies are pointing our her improving ratings yet the Tories are doing worse than 2024 (which was their worst general election defeat ever).
    She was an insane choice given the situation the tories found themselves in after the GE.
    There was no sane choice given the situation the Tories find themselves in.

    Realistically the public have had enough of the Tories and it will take some time for anyone to be listened to.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 38,823
    edited December 13
    Dura_Ace said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Election Maps UK
    @ElectionMapsUK

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    RFM: 31% (=)
    LAB: 20% (-1)
    CON: 18% (+1)
    LDM: 13% (+2)
    GRN: 12% (-1)
    SNP: 3% (=)

    Via @OpiniumResearch, 10-12 Dec
    Changes w/ 26-28 Nov."

    https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1999936388335300724

    This is the problem Tory MPs are having.

    Kemi Badenoch and her allies are pointing our her improving ratings yet the Tories are doing worse than 2024 (which was their worst general election defeat ever).
    She was an insane choice given the situation the tories found themselves in after the GE.
    I've got a funny feeling she's somehow going to end up as the next non-Labour PM of the country.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 36,354

    Nigelb said:

    Papers please, in the land of the free..

    It's the land of the free, not the land of the free-for-all.
    I notice you cut the following from @Nigelb's comment so that you didn't have to face into it:

    "Armed ICE agents trapped U.S. citizens in a restaurant and demanded their papers. Do you carry your papers?

    Federal agents walked into East African restaurants in Cedar-Riverside Tuesday. They closed and blocked the doors. Then they demanded to see everyone’s papers.

    Every single person was a U.S. citizen.

    AP videographer/journalist and Council Member Jamal Osman witnessed it. Osman has been warning his Somali constituents to carry their passports everywhere...

    https://x.com/LittleCongress/status/1999866399909404935
    "
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 38,823
    edited December 13

    Andy_JS said:

    "Election Maps UK
    @ElectionMapsUK

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    RFM: 31% (=)
    LAB: 20% (-1)
    CON: 18% (+1)
    LDM: 13% (+2)
    GRN: 12% (-1)
    SNP: 3% (=)

    Via @OpiniumResearch, 10-12 Dec
    Changes w/ 26-28 Nov."

    https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1999936388335300724

    Sleazy, broken Labour and Greens on the slide!
    Who was it who first coined that phrase? We haven't been able to rid ourselves of it ever since, lol.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 76,406

    ydoethur said:

    I see MAHA is going well.

    This is something that might damage Reform here given their support from platforming antivaxxers.




    That's what you get when vaccine coverage becomes spotty.
    That’s a big increase, although the 2020 figure was pretty measly.
    That's what Trump said.

    A pox on him.
  • Dura_Ace said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Election Maps UK
    @ElectionMapsUK

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    RFM: 31% (=)
    LAB: 20% (-1)
    CON: 18% (+1)
    LDM: 13% (+2)
    GRN: 12% (-1)
    SNP: 3% (=)

    Via @OpiniumResearch, 10-12 Dec
    Changes w/ 26-28 Nov."

    https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1999936388335300724

    This is the problem Tory MPs are having.

    Kemi Badenoch and her allies are pointing our her improving ratings yet the Tories are doing worse than 2024 (which was their worst general election defeat ever).
    She was an insane choice given the situation the tories found themselves in after the GE.
    Insane in your view but increasingly one to watch with her own approval now ahead of Farage and out of sight of Starmer

    This was always going to be a long haul but there are upto 4 years to change the narrative

    Certainly she is the conservatives best bet as nobody else would be a better choice

  • Andy_JS said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Election Maps UK
    @ElectionMapsUK

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    RFM: 31% (=)
    LAB: 20% (-1)
    CON: 18% (+1)
    LDM: 13% (+2)
    GRN: 12% (-1)
    SNP: 3% (=)

    Via @OpiniumResearch, 10-12 Dec
    Changes w/ 26-28 Nov."

    https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1999936388335300724

    Sleazy, broken Labour and Greens on the slide!
    Who was it who first coined that phrase?
    Gabble.

    It was very funny, he said it about a poll that had the Tories losing 1 point, but the rest of the evening there were I think three other polls showing Labour being minus 2 to 4 points.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,674
    stodge said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Election Maps UK
    @ElectionMapsUK

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    RFM: 31% (=)
    LAB: 20% (-1)
    CON: 18% (+1)
    LDM: 13% (+2)
    GRN: 12% (-1)
    SNP: 3% (=)

    Via @OpiniumResearch, 10-12 Dec
    Changes w/ 26-28 Nov."

    https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1999936388335300724

    This is the problem Tory MPs are having.

    Kemi Badenoch and her allies are pointing our her improving ratings yet the Tories are doing worse than 2024 (which was their worst general election defeat ever).

    The context makes it worse considering how badly Starmer/Reeves/Labour are polling.
    Those numbers would mean a landslide for Farage even more "loveless" than the one Starmer got.

    Compared with the Opinium poll the weekend before Christmas twelve months ago:

    Reform +9
    Labour -9
    Conservatives -5
    Liberal Democrats +2
    Greens +2

    I think that's the message of the political year 2025 - final twists and turns notwithstanding.
    It's plausible that over the course of the next year, Reform will stabilise in the mid-30s as they increasingly look like a professional operation preparing for government, Labour fall to the mid-teens as they continue to alienate their own voters, the Greens fall back to 10% as Polanski gets exposed as a lightweight, the Lib Dems continue to tread water, and the Tories climb up to the high-20s and look like the only plausible alternative to Farage.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 54,382
    Dura_Ace said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Election Maps UK
    @ElectionMapsUK

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    RFM: 31% (=)
    LAB: 20% (-1)
    CON: 18% (+1)
    LDM: 13% (+2)
    GRN: 12% (-1)
    SNP: 3% (=)

    Via @OpiniumResearch, 10-12 Dec
    Changes w/ 26-28 Nov."

    https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1999936388335300724

    This is the problem Tory MPs are having.

    Kemi Badenoch and her allies are pointing our her improving ratings yet the Tories are doing worse than 2024 (which was their worst general election defeat ever).
    She was an insane choice given the situation the tories found themselves in after the GE.
    Yes, but with Truss no longer in Parliament they had no obvious alternative.
  • Dura_Ace said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Election Maps UK
    @ElectionMapsUK

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    RFM: 31% (=)
    LAB: 20% (-1)
    CON: 18% (+1)
    LDM: 13% (+2)
    GRN: 12% (-1)
    SNP: 3% (=)

    Via @OpiniumResearch, 10-12 Dec
    Changes w/ 26-28 Nov."

    https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1999936388335300724

    This is the problem Tory MPs are having.

    Kemi Badenoch and her allies are pointing our her improving ratings yet the Tories are doing worse than 2024 (which was their worst general election defeat ever).
    She was an insane choice given the situation the tories found themselves in after the GE.
    She was the sane choice when the alternative was Robert Jenrick.
    Or, rephrasing it (and take this as your trigger warning)...

    Someone or something can be a bad choice, but if the alternatives are worse, they can still be the best choice.

    Though we should probably stop and work out why so many of our political choices seem to boil down to "bad or worse" rather than "good or better".
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 7,989

    stodge said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Election Maps UK
    @ElectionMapsUK

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    RFM: 31% (=)
    LAB: 20% (-1)
    CON: 18% (+1)
    LDM: 13% (+2)
    GRN: 12% (-1)
    SNP: 3% (=)

    Via @OpiniumResearch, 10-12 Dec
    Changes w/ 26-28 Nov."

    https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1999936388335300724

    This is the problem Tory MPs are having.

    Kemi Badenoch and her allies are pointing our her improving ratings yet the Tories are doing worse than 2024 (which was their worst general election defeat ever).

    The context makes it worse considering how badly Starmer/Reeves/Labour are polling.
    Those numbers would mean a landslide for Farage even more "loveless" than the one Starmer got.

    Compared with the Opinium poll the weekend before Christmas twelve months ago:

    Reform +9
    Labour -9
    Conservatives -5
    Liberal Democrats +2
    Greens +2

    I think that's the message of the political year 2025 - final twists and turns notwithstanding.
    It's plausible that over the course of the next year, Reform will stabilise in the mid-30s as they increasingly look like a professional operation preparing for government, Labour fall to the mid-teens as they continue to alienate their own voters, the Greens fall back to 10% as Polanski gets exposed as a lightweight, the Lib Dems continue to tread water, and the Tories climb up to the high-20s and look like the only plausible alternative to Farage.
    ¿Que?
  • Dura_Ace said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Election Maps UK
    @ElectionMapsUK

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    RFM: 31% (=)
    LAB: 20% (-1)
    CON: 18% (+1)
    LDM: 13% (+2)
    GRN: 12% (-1)
    SNP: 3% (=)

    Via @OpiniumResearch, 10-12 Dec
    Changes w/ 26-28 Nov."

    https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1999936388335300724

    This is the problem Tory MPs are having.

    Kemi Badenoch and her allies are pointing our her improving ratings yet the Tories are doing worse than 2024 (which was their worst general election defeat ever).
    She was an insane choice given the situation the tories found themselves in after the GE.
    She was the sane choice when the alternative was Robert Jenrick.
    Or, rephrasing it (and take this as your trigger warning)...

    Someone or something can be a bad choice, but if the alternatives are worse, they can still be the best choice.

    Though we should probably stop and work out why so many of our political choices seem to boil down to "bad or worse" rather than "good or better".
    We used to laugh when the message in the 1991 Louisiana gubernatorial election was 'vote for the lizard not the wizard.'

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1991_Louisiana_gubernatorial_election
  • Dura_Ace said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Election Maps UK
    @ElectionMapsUK

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    RFM: 31% (=)
    LAB: 20% (-1)
    CON: 18% (+1)
    LDM: 13% (+2)
    GRN: 12% (-1)
    SNP: 3% (=)

    Via @OpiniumResearch, 10-12 Dec
    Changes w/ 26-28 Nov."

    https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1999936388335300724

    This is the problem Tory MPs are having.

    Kemi Badenoch and her allies are pointing our her improving ratings yet the Tories are doing worse than 2024 (which was their worst general election defeat ever).
    She was an insane choice given the situation the tories found themselves in after the GE.
    She was the sane choice when the alternative was Robert Jenrick.
    Or, rephrasing it (and take this as your trigger warning)...

    Someone or something can be a bad choice, but if the alternatives are worse, they can still be the best choice.

    Though we should probably stop and work out why so many of our political choices seem to boil down to "bad or worse" rather than "good or better".
    We used to laugh when the message in the 1991 Louisiana gubernatorial election was 'vote for the lizard not the wizard.'

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1991_Louisiana_gubernatorial_election
    Or when our French friends said "Vote for the crook, not the Nazi" in 2002.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 36,354

    stodge said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Election Maps UK
    @ElectionMapsUK

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    RFM: 31% (=)
    LAB: 20% (-1)
    CON: 18% (+1)
    LDM: 13% (+2)
    GRN: 12% (-1)
    SNP: 3% (=)

    Via @OpiniumResearch, 10-12 Dec
    Changes w/ 26-28 Nov."

    https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1999936388335300724

    This is the problem Tory MPs are having.

    Kemi Badenoch and her allies are pointing our her improving ratings yet the Tories are doing worse than 2024 (which was their worst general election defeat ever).

    The context makes it worse considering how badly Starmer/Reeves/Labour are polling.
    Those numbers would mean a landslide for Farage even more "loveless" than the one Starmer got.

    Compared with the Opinium poll the weekend before Christmas twelve months ago:

    Reform +9
    Labour -9
    Conservatives -5
    Liberal Democrats +2
    Greens +2

    I think that's the message of the political year 2025 - final twists and turns notwithstanding.
    It's plausible that over the course of the next year, Reform will stabilise in the mid-30s as they increasingly look like a professional operation preparing for government, Labour fall to the mid-teens as they continue to alienate their own voters, the Greens fall back to 10% as Polanski gets exposed as a lightweight, the Lib Dems continue to tread water, and the Tories climb up to the high-20s and look like the only plausible alternative to Farage.
    The broad 50/50 split between parties of the right and parties of the left has remained pretty much constant for 100 years, so Reform at 35% and Tories at 25-30% is not plausible imo.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,674
    carnforth said:

    stodge said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Election Maps UK
    @ElectionMapsUK

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    RFM: 31% (=)
    LAB: 20% (-1)
    CON: 18% (+1)
    LDM: 13% (+2)
    GRN: 12% (-1)
    SNP: 3% (=)

    Via @OpiniumResearch, 10-12 Dec
    Changes w/ 26-28 Nov."

    https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1999936388335300724

    This is the problem Tory MPs are having.

    Kemi Badenoch and her allies are pointing our her improving ratings yet the Tories are doing worse than 2024 (which was their worst general election defeat ever).

    The context makes it worse considering how badly Starmer/Reeves/Labour are polling.
    Those numbers would mean a landslide for Farage even more "loveless" than the one Starmer got.

    Compared with the Opinium poll the weekend before Christmas twelve months ago:

    Reform +9
    Labour -9
    Conservatives -5
    Liberal Democrats +2
    Greens +2

    I think that's the message of the political year 2025 - final twists and turns notwithstanding.
    It's plausible that over the course of the next year, Reform will stabilise in the mid-30s as they increasingly look like a professional operation preparing for government, Labour fall to the mid-teens as they continue to alienate their own voters, the Greens fall back to 10% as Polanski gets exposed as a lightweight, the Lib Dems continue to tread water, and the Tories climb up to the high-20s and look like the only plausible alternative to Farage.
    ¿Que?
    It doesn't seem too controversial to say that there is more serious thinking going on about what to do if they actually win power than Labour did before 2024.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 76,406

    carnforth said:

    stodge said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Election Maps UK
    @ElectionMapsUK

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    RFM: 31% (=)
    LAB: 20% (-1)
    CON: 18% (+1)
    LDM: 13% (+2)
    GRN: 12% (-1)
    SNP: 3% (=)

    Via @OpiniumResearch, 10-12 Dec
    Changes w/ 26-28 Nov."

    https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1999936388335300724

    This is the problem Tory MPs are having.

    Kemi Badenoch and her allies are pointing our her improving ratings yet the Tories are doing worse than 2024 (which was their worst general election defeat ever).

    The context makes it worse considering how badly Starmer/Reeves/Labour are polling.
    Those numbers would mean a landslide for Farage even more "loveless" than the one Starmer got.

    Compared with the Opinium poll the weekend before Christmas twelve months ago:

    Reform +9
    Labour -9
    Conservatives -5
    Liberal Democrats +2
    Greens +2

    I think that's the message of the political year 2025 - final twists and turns notwithstanding.
    It's plausible that over the course of the next year, Reform will stabilise in the mid-30s as they increasingly look like a professional operation preparing for government, Labour fall to the mid-teens as they continue to alienate their own voters, the Greens fall back to 10% as Polanski gets exposed as a lightweight, the Lib Dems continue to tread water, and the Tories climb up to the high-20s and look like the only plausible alternative to Farage.
    ¿Que?
    It doesn't seem too controversial to say that there is more serious thinking going on about what to do if they actually win power than Labour did before 2024.
    It may not seem controversial, but given Farage's long history of vacuous populism and the very limited ability and number of his lieutenants it would seem to put it mildly exceedingly optimistic.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,674

    stodge said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Election Maps UK
    @ElectionMapsUK

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    RFM: 31% (=)
    LAB: 20% (-1)
    CON: 18% (+1)
    LDM: 13% (+2)
    GRN: 12% (-1)
    SNP: 3% (=)

    Via @OpiniumResearch, 10-12 Dec
    Changes w/ 26-28 Nov."

    https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1999936388335300724

    This is the problem Tory MPs are having.

    Kemi Badenoch and her allies are pointing our her improving ratings yet the Tories are doing worse than 2024 (which was their worst general election defeat ever).

    The context makes it worse considering how badly Starmer/Reeves/Labour are polling.
    Those numbers would mean a landslide for Farage even more "loveless" than the one Starmer got.

    Compared with the Opinium poll the weekend before Christmas twelve months ago:

    Reform +9
    Labour -9
    Conservatives -5
    Liberal Democrats +2
    Greens +2

    I think that's the message of the political year 2025 - final twists and turns notwithstanding.
    It's plausible that over the course of the next year, Reform will stabilise in the mid-30s as they increasingly look like a professional operation preparing for government, Labour fall to the mid-teens as they continue to alienate their own voters, the Greens fall back to 10% as Polanski gets exposed as a lightweight, the Lib Dems continue to tread water, and the Tories climb up to the high-20s and look like the only plausible alternative to Farage.
    The broad 50/50 split between parties of the right and parties of the left has remained pretty much constant for 100 years, so Reform at 35% and Tories at 25-30% is not plausible imo.
    Labour + Lib Dem got ~60% in 1997 and 2001 and I think the closest equivalent to the current situation is the 1992-1997 parliament.
  • Dura_Ace said:

    ohnotnow said:

    Good evening

    Good to see Badenoch above Farage in tonight's poll

    https://x.com/i/status/1999941143027740821

    And another policy

    Badenoch to ditch ban on sale of ICE cars in 2030

    The EU is looking at extending it to 2040 apparently

    Brave of Kemi to fall into line with the EU.
    They are two different policies and I suspect the mule faced maenad understands neither of them.

    The UK policy is 100% ICE cars by 2030, which is easy because there won't be any non-hybrid ICE cars for sale from volume manufacturers by then.

    The EU policy is zero emissions by 2035, which is hard because that implies BEV/synthetic fuel.
    Don't the ICE use tanks instead of cars to hunt immigrants? :lol:
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 76,406

    Dura_Ace said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Election Maps UK
    @ElectionMapsUK

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    RFM: 31% (=)
    LAB: 20% (-1)
    CON: 18% (+1)
    LDM: 13% (+2)
    GRN: 12% (-1)
    SNP: 3% (=)

    Via @OpiniumResearch, 10-12 Dec
    Changes w/ 26-28 Nov."

    https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1999936388335300724

    This is the problem Tory MPs are having.

    Kemi Badenoch and her allies are pointing our her improving ratings yet the Tories are doing worse than 2024 (which was their worst general election defeat ever).
    She was an insane choice given the situation the tories found themselves in after the GE.
    She was the sane choice when the alternative was Robert Jenrick.
    Or, rephrasing it (and take this as your trigger warning)...

    Someone or something can be a bad choice, but if the alternatives are worse, they can still be the best choice.

    Though we should probably stop and work out why so many of our political choices seem to boil down to "bad or worse" rather than "good or better".
    We used to laugh when the message in the 1991 Louisiana gubernatorial election was 'vote for the lizard not the wizard.'

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1991_Louisiana_gubernatorial_election
    Edwards famously said the only thing he and Duke had in common was that they were both wizards beneath the sheets.

    They later had in common that they were both convicted and jailed on fraud charges.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 12,286
    The BBC's Frank Gardiner once again has his finger on yesterday's pulse.

    Why, oh why, oh why. The BBC.

    (Oh and there was that chap yesterday - a great friend of the BBC that went all in with Putin - Brian Kurze or something like that)

  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 12,107
    ohnotnow said:

    carnforth said:

    carnforth said:

    FF43 said:

    carnforth said:

    FF43 said:

    carnforth said:

    FF43 said:

    The Reform led Council in Leicestershire brought in consultants at a cost of £1.4 million to find cost millions of pounds of cost savings. They have actually found £1 million of potential savings.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ckgdk3xrrw4o

    Per year? Or in total? It does not say.

    Reform financial illiteracy vs BBC financial illiteracy? Fight!
    I assume recurring savings, but I suspect "savings" are probably the elimination of lower priority services rather than pure waste. Whereas the consultants probably are pure waste. Also the supposed savings are potential and may not happen while the consultants are upfront cost.
    Sure, but the typical mutiple is 25x for one year vs permanent savings. So £25m vs £1.4m. In theory.

    Councils have statutory duties, and other stuff. Cutting the other stuff is easy. Delivering the statutory stuff more efficiently is hard. Both are probably swamped by national funding trends. And so, local democracy is rather limited in effect.
    25 years seems an excessively long payback period.

    Just an observation.
    8x is the more normal multiplier
    I was working off the multiplier for capital vs income when it comes to, say, university endowments. Perhaps I'm wrong.
    25x implies a 4% yield which is about right for capital vs income

    A capital investment needs a minimum return of about 12% to cover the cost of capital hence 8x (a 12.5% yield)
    Right, but councils spending doesn't (normally?) come from borrowing.
    Debt costs are a lot lower. It’s really about what the expected return on investment.

    Spending £1.4m to save £1m annually seems very reasonable. Spending £6-8m to save £1m annually would be ok. Of course in this case the £1.4m is just the cost of the consultants - we don’t know how much it will cost to close whatever they plan to do
    Now I'm reminded of this from yesterdays news :

    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cjdrryge7ego

    Police are investigating after a council sold a college building worth £4.6m for just £1, it has emerged.

    Peterborough City Council officers are "concerned" its disposal of the John Mansfield Centre (JMC) – occupied by City College Peterborough – to a charity in 2020 and "associated financial transactions were unlawful".

    After the sale, the council – which owns the college – paid rent of nearly £800,000 to the charity City College Peterborough Foundation (CCPF), but a cabinet report says there is "no evidence of any written lease or agreement for lease".

    Cambridgeshire Police said three people had been arrested on suspicion of misconduct in a public office. CCPF has been contacted by the BBC.
    I don’t know the details of the case, but the charity’s purpose sounds reasonable

    The charity operates to advance education, advance health, relieve unemployment, relieve poverty and promote the provision of facilities for recreation and other leisure time occupations, promote community participation and to promote social inclusion.

    Interesting the charity accounts refer to the property as a donation from Peterborough Council rather than a sale. The £1 is presumably because you need consideration to perfect a contract.

    It sounds like the paperwork was a mess, but it doesn’t seem like the objective was wrong
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 59,201

    Dura_Ace said:

    ohnotnow said:

    Good evening

    Good to see Badenoch above Farage in tonight's poll

    https://x.com/i/status/1999941143027740821

    And another policy

    Badenoch to ditch ban on sale of ICE cars in 2030

    The EU is looking at extending it to 2040 apparently

    Brave of Kemi to fall into line with the EU.
    They are two different policies and I suspect the mule faced maenad understands neither of them.

    The UK policy is 100% ICE cars by 2030, which is easy because there won't be any non-hybrid ICE cars for sale from volume manufacturers by then.

    The EU policy is zero emissions by 2035, which is hard because that implies BEV/synthetic fuel.
    Don't the ICE use tanks instead of cars to hunt immigrants? :lol:
    So you are saying that ICE are... tankies?
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 12,107

    ydoethur said:

    I see MAHA is going well.

    This is something that might damage Reform here given their support from platforming antivaxxers.




    That's what you get when vaccine coverage becomes spotty.
    That’s a big increase, although the 2020 figure was pretty measly.
    Is 2020 the best baseline given presumably there was less opportunity for transmission given covid?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,848
    isam said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Election Maps UK
    @ElectionMapsUK

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    RFM: 31% (=)
    LAB: 20% (-1)
    CON: 18% (+1)
    LDM: 13% (+2)
    GRN: 12% (-1)
    SNP: 3% (=)

    Via @OpiniumResearch, 10-12 Dec
    Changes w/ 26-28 Nov."

    https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1999936388335300724

    This is the problem Tory MPs are having.

    Kemi Badenoch and her allies are pointing our her improving ratings yet the Tories are doing worse than 2024 (which was their worst general election defeat ever).

    The context makes it worse considering how badly Starmer/Reeves/Labour are polling.
    A strange one alright, but a leader who is more popular than their party is surely not in danger of being replaced?
    If they think another leader would be even more popular they might. What limited polling there is might not support that idea, but parties can convince themselves it might work.

    I would think she is safe until at least May though.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 54,382

    carnforth said:

    stodge said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Election Maps UK
    @ElectionMapsUK

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    RFM: 31% (=)
    LAB: 20% (-1)
    CON: 18% (+1)
    LDM: 13% (+2)
    GRN: 12% (-1)
    SNP: 3% (=)

    Via @OpiniumResearch, 10-12 Dec
    Changes w/ 26-28 Nov."

    https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1999936388335300724

    This is the problem Tory MPs are having.

    Kemi Badenoch and her allies are pointing our her improving ratings yet the Tories are doing worse than 2024 (which was their worst general election defeat ever).

    The context makes it worse considering how badly Starmer/Reeves/Labour are polling.
    Those numbers would mean a landslide for Farage even more "loveless" than the one Starmer got.

    Compared with the Opinium poll the weekend before Christmas twelve months ago:

    Reform +9
    Labour -9
    Conservatives -5
    Liberal Democrats +2
    Greens +2

    I think that's the message of the political year 2025 - final twists and turns notwithstanding.
    It's plausible that over the course of the next year, Reform will stabilise in the mid-30s as they increasingly look like a professional operation preparing for government, Labour fall to the mid-teens as they continue to alienate their own voters, the Greens fall back to 10% as Polanski gets exposed as a lightweight, the Lib Dems continue to tread water, and the Tories climb up to the high-20s and look like the only plausible alternative to Farage.
    ¿Que?
    It doesn't seem too controversial to say that there is more serious thinking going on about what to do if they actually win power than Labour did before 2024.
    Consider the evidence from Reform councils...
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 36,354

    stodge said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Election Maps UK
    @ElectionMapsUK

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    RFM: 31% (=)
    LAB: 20% (-1)
    CON: 18% (+1)
    LDM: 13% (+2)
    GRN: 12% (-1)
    SNP: 3% (=)

    Via @OpiniumResearch, 10-12 Dec
    Changes w/ 26-28 Nov."

    https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1999936388335300724

    This is the problem Tory MPs are having.

    Kemi Badenoch and her allies are pointing our her improving ratings yet the Tories are doing worse than 2024 (which was their worst general election defeat ever).

    The context makes it worse considering how badly Starmer/Reeves/Labour are polling.
    Those numbers would mean a landslide for Farage even more "loveless" than the one Starmer got.

    Compared with the Opinium poll the weekend before Christmas twelve months ago:

    Reform +9
    Labour -9
    Conservatives -5
    Liberal Democrats +2
    Greens +2

    I think that's the message of the political year 2025 - final twists and turns notwithstanding.
    It's plausible that over the course of the next year, Reform will stabilise in the mid-30s as they increasingly look like a professional operation preparing for government, Labour fall to the mid-teens as they continue to alienate their own voters, the Greens fall back to 10% as Polanski gets exposed as a lightweight, the Lib Dems continue to tread water, and the Tories climb up to the high-20s and look like the only plausible alternative to Farage.
    The broad 50/50 split between parties of the right and parties of the left has remained pretty much constant for 100 years, so Reform at 35% and Tories at 25-30% is not plausible imo.
    Labour + Lib Dem got ~60% in 1997 and 2001 and I think the closest equivalent to the current situation is the 1992-1997 parliament.
    Fair point. I was wrong, the historic left/right split is more like 55/45.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,848
    edited December 13

    carnforth said:

    stodge said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Election Maps UK
    @ElectionMapsUK

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    RFM: 31% (=)
    LAB: 20% (-1)
    CON: 18% (+1)
    LDM: 13% (+2)
    GRN: 12% (-1)
    SNP: 3% (=)

    Via @OpiniumResearch, 10-12 Dec
    Changes w/ 26-28 Nov."

    https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1999936388335300724

    This is the problem Tory MPs are having.

    Kemi Badenoch and her allies are pointing our her improving ratings yet the Tories are doing worse than 2024 (which was their worst general election defeat ever).

    The context makes it worse considering how badly Starmer/Reeves/Labour are polling.
    Those numbers would mean a landslide for Farage even more "loveless" than the one Starmer got.

    Compared with the Opinium poll the weekend before Christmas twelve months ago:

    Reform +9
    Labour -9
    Conservatives -5
    Liberal Democrats +2
    Greens +2

    I think that's the message of the political year 2025 - final twists and turns notwithstanding.
    It's plausible that over the course of the next year, Reform will stabilise in the mid-30s as they increasingly look like a professional operation preparing for government, Labour fall to the mid-teens as they continue to alienate their own voters, the Greens fall back to 10% as Polanski gets exposed as a lightweight, the Lib Dems continue to tread water, and the Tories climb up to the high-20s and look like the only plausible alternative to Farage.
    ¿Que?
    It doesn't seem too controversial to say that there is more serious thinking going on about what to do if they actually win power than Labour did before 2024.
    That's hard to say, as the lack of preparation within Labour was not as obvious beforehand as it was afterwards - it could be there is some good preparation, but it could just be surface level. Plus hundreds of new MPs are always hard to wrangle, even when they owe a lot to the Leader in getting elected, as Boris and Keir could both lament.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 84,428
    Carnyx said:

    Nigelb said:

    biggles said:

    kinabalu said:

    If I may toss a cherry into the trifle - if individual countries all start tooling up to the max to defend themselves against allcomers that's going to lead to nothing good at all.

    Are you starting something?
    Isn't it sherry one chucks into trifle ?
    Cherries are for a quite different desert.
    It's a single glacé cherry that one *places* onto trifle.

    My late mother's sherry trifle for Christmas dinner, as an alternative or complement to clootie dumpling, had plenty of cream, and sherry, and ratafia biscuits, and home-made raspberry jam, and home-made egg custard, and several dozen dragees, but just one cherry.

    Edit: also some candied angelica stem pieces.

    Christmases have never been the same since she departed.
    I'm not a fan of unnecessary embellishment, but have to admit your mother's trifle (which sounds not dissimilar to my mum's*) sounds pretty good.

    *homemade sponge (or occasionally ladyfingers) similarly spread with jam, and then drowned in sherry; grapes and bananas in the same homemade egg custard; finally topped with whipped cream.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 41,266
    @chadbourn.bsky.social‬

    Large Ukrainian drone attack on Simferopol thermal power plant has blown up a fuel depot.

    #explodey
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 41,266
    @rentouljohn.bsky.social‬

    Good Christmas card from Ed Davey this year

    https://bsky.app/profile/rentouljohn.bsky.social/post/3m7vjpsxetk2w
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 84,428
    edited December 13

    stodge said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Election Maps UK
    @ElectionMapsUK

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    RFM: 31% (=)
    LAB: 20% (-1)
    CON: 18% (+1)
    LDM: 13% (+2)
    GRN: 12% (-1)
    SNP: 3% (=)

    Via @OpiniumResearch, 10-12 Dec
    Changes w/ 26-28 Nov."

    https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1999936388335300724

    This is the problem Tory MPs are having.

    Kemi Badenoch and her allies are pointing our her improving ratings yet the Tories are doing worse than 2024 (which was their worst general election defeat ever).

    The context makes it worse considering how badly Starmer/Reeves/Labour are polling.
    Those numbers would mean a landslide for Farage even more "loveless" than the one Starmer got.

    Compared with the Opinium poll the weekend before Christmas twelve months ago:

    Reform +9
    Labour -9
    Conservatives -5
    Liberal Democrats +2
    Greens +2

    I think that's the message of the political year 2025 - final twists and turns notwithstanding.
    It's plausible...they increasingly look like a professional operation preparing for government..
    Is that an example of begging the question ?

    Seems fairly implausible to me.

    Unless by professional you simply mean paid for.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,848
    Foxy said:

    carnforth said:

    stodge said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Election Maps UK
    @ElectionMapsUK

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    RFM: 31% (=)
    LAB: 20% (-1)
    CON: 18% (+1)
    LDM: 13% (+2)
    GRN: 12% (-1)
    SNP: 3% (=)

    Via @OpiniumResearch, 10-12 Dec
    Changes w/ 26-28 Nov."

    https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1999936388335300724

    This is the problem Tory MPs are having.

    Kemi Badenoch and her allies are pointing our her improving ratings yet the Tories are doing worse than 2024 (which was their worst general election defeat ever).

    The context makes it worse considering how badly Starmer/Reeves/Labour are polling.
    Those numbers would mean a landslide for Farage even more "loveless" than the one Starmer got.

    Compared with the Opinium poll the weekend before Christmas twelve months ago:

    Reform +9
    Labour -9
    Conservatives -5
    Liberal Democrats +2
    Greens +2

    I think that's the message of the political year 2025 - final twists and turns notwithstanding.
    It's plausible that over the course of the next year, Reform will stabilise in the mid-30s as they increasingly look like a professional operation preparing for government, Labour fall to the mid-teens as they continue to alienate their own voters, the Greens fall back to 10% as Polanski gets exposed as a lightweight, the Lib Dems continue to tread water, and the Tories climb up to the high-20s and look like the only plausible alternative to Farage.
    ¿Que?
    It doesn't seem too controversial to say that there is more serious thinking going on about what to do if they actually win power than Labour did before 2024.
    Consider the evidence from Reform councils...
    Local councils can be an odd one, as I see some criticism online of how perfidious council officials are able to run rings around politicians (whilst also, counterintuitively, all being useless in every way apparently), even referring to local government as being potemkin democracy where the real power is in the hands of officials, and this is why councillors are never able to deliver (including but not limited to Reform).

    Yet the idea of full time professional politicians tends to upset the same people making the former criticism, so I'm not sure what they really want.
  • isamisam Posts: 43,220
    BBC News was pleased to tell us this morning that no illegals had crossed the channel for 28 days. Labour MPs boasted about their success.

    It’s called the weather... now over 700 have arrived today!


    https://x.com/nigel_farage/status/1999906039253360787?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 84,428

    Nigelb said:

    Papers please, in the land of the free..

    It's the land of the free, not the land of the free-for-all.
    It's a land supposedly governed by a constitution and the rule of law.

    Both increasingly, as here, being flouted.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 76,406
    Nigelb said:

    stodge said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Election Maps UK
    @ElectionMapsUK

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    RFM: 31% (=)
    LAB: 20% (-1)
    CON: 18% (+1)
    LDM: 13% (+2)
    GRN: 12% (-1)
    SNP: 3% (=)

    Via @OpiniumResearch, 10-12 Dec
    Changes w/ 26-28 Nov."

    https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1999936388335300724

    This is the problem Tory MPs are having.

    Kemi Badenoch and her allies are pointing our her improving ratings yet the Tories are doing worse than 2024 (which was their worst general election defeat ever).

    The context makes it worse considering how badly Starmer/Reeves/Labour are polling.
    Those numbers would mean a landslide for Farage even more "loveless" than the one Starmer got.

    Compared with the Opinium poll the weekend before Christmas twelve months ago:

    Reform +9
    Labour -9
    Conservatives -5
    Liberal Democrats +2
    Greens +2

    I think that's the message of the political year 2025 - final twists and turns notwithstanding.
    It's plausible...they increasingly look like a professional operation preparing for government..
    Is that an example of begging the question ?

    Seems fairly implausible to me.

    Unless by professional you simply mean paid for.
    I think you're Russian to judgement on their operations.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 18,647

    Dura_Ace said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Election Maps UK
    @ElectionMapsUK

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    RFM: 31% (=)
    LAB: 20% (-1)
    CON: 18% (+1)
    LDM: 13% (+2)
    GRN: 12% (-1)
    SNP: 3% (=)

    Via @OpiniumResearch, 10-12 Dec
    Changes w/ 26-28 Nov."

    https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1999936388335300724

    This is the problem Tory MPs are having.

    Kemi Badenoch and her allies are pointing our her improving ratings yet the Tories are doing worse than 2024 (which was their worst general election defeat ever).
    She was an insane choice given the situation the tories found themselves in after the GE.
    She was the sane choice when the alternative was Robert Jenrick.
    True but by then the Conservatives had got rid of the actual sane choice, James Cleverly. Or perhaps he did it himself with his 4D chess.

    They also got rid of Priti Patel who had more baggage than an American on a cruise ship, but had thought about how a right wing non Farage party could operate in a today's low trust populist world.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 76,406
    kle4 said:

    Foxy said:

    carnforth said:

    stodge said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Election Maps UK
    @ElectionMapsUK

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    RFM: 31% (=)
    LAB: 20% (-1)
    CON: 18% (+1)
    LDM: 13% (+2)
    GRN: 12% (-1)
    SNP: 3% (=)

    Via @OpiniumResearch, 10-12 Dec
    Changes w/ 26-28 Nov."

    https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1999936388335300724

    This is the problem Tory MPs are having.

    Kemi Badenoch and her allies are pointing our her improving ratings yet the Tories are doing worse than 2024 (which was their worst general election defeat ever).

    The context makes it worse considering how badly Starmer/Reeves/Labour are polling.
    Those numbers would mean a landslide for Farage even more "loveless" than the one Starmer got.

    Compared with the Opinium poll the weekend before Christmas twelve months ago:

    Reform +9
    Labour -9
    Conservatives -5
    Liberal Democrats +2
    Greens +2

    I think that's the message of the political year 2025 - final twists and turns notwithstanding.
    It's plausible that over the course of the next year, Reform will stabilise in the mid-30s as they increasingly look like a professional operation preparing for government, Labour fall to the mid-teens as they continue to alienate their own voters, the Greens fall back to 10% as Polanski gets exposed as a lightweight, the Lib Dems continue to tread water, and the Tories climb up to the high-20s and look like the only plausible alternative to Farage.
    ¿Que?
    It doesn't seem too controversial to say that there is more serious thinking going on about what to do if they actually win power than Labour did before 2024.
    Consider the evidence from Reform councils...
    Local councils can be an odd one, as I see some criticism online of how perfidious council officials are able to run rings around politicians (whilst also, counterintuitively, all being useless in every way apparently), even referring to local government as being potemkin democracy where the real power is in the hands of officials, and this is why councillors are never able to deliver (including but not limited to Reform).

    Yet the idea of full time professional politicians tends to upset the same people making the former criticism, so I'm not sure what they really want.
    And when they get somebody who actually does bang heads together, very often nothing happens anyway.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c14vv3yez00o
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 84,428
    Dura_Ace said:

    ohnotnow said:

    Good evening

    Good to see Badenoch above Farage in tonight's poll

    https://x.com/i/status/1999941143027740821

    And another policy

    Badenoch to ditch ban on sale of ICE cars in 2030

    The EU is looking at extending it to 2040 apparently

    Brave of Kemi to fall into line with the EU.
    They are two different policies and I suspect the mule faced maenad understands neither of them.

    The UK policy is 100% ICE cars by 2030, which is easy because there won't be any non-hybrid ICE cars for sale from volume manufacturers by then.
    We changed that a couple of years ago.

    Government sets out path to zero emission vehicles by 2035
    80% of new cars and 70% of new vans sold in Great Britain set to be zero emission by 2030, increasing to 100% by 2035.
    https://www.gov.uk/government/news/government-sets-out-path-to-zero-emission-vehicles-by-2035
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,848
    Dura_Ace said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Election Maps UK
    @ElectionMapsUK

    Westminster Voting Intention:

    RFM: 31% (=)
    LAB: 20% (-1)
    CON: 18% (+1)
    LDM: 13% (+2)
    GRN: 12% (-1)
    SNP: 3% (=)

    Via @OpiniumResearch, 10-12 Dec
    Changes w/ 26-28 Nov."

    https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1999936388335300724

    This is the problem Tory MPs are having.

    Kemi Badenoch and her allies are pointing our her improving ratings yet the Tories are doing worse than 2024 (which was their worst general election defeat ever).
    She was an insane choice given the situation the tories found themselves in after the GE.
    Not many to choose from of course. And given they continue to be riven with factional infighting, including Reformphobes and Reformites, if she was an insane choice, was there an obvious sane choice?

    I still think the lack of honeymoon period for Labour has actually hurt the Tories too, since no one was ready to listen to them again, but they were desperate to go somewhere other than Labour. Not that Green and Your Party fans would have been flocking that way, and Reform are not all closet Tories, but with both the big two rating poorly, it meant they could not even sway any middle ground people.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,848
    isam said:

    BBC News was pleased to tell us this morning that no illegals had crossed the channel for 28 days. Labour MPs boasted about their success.

    It’s called the weather... now over 700 have arrived today!


    https://x.com/nigel_farage/status/1999906039253360787?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    Sounds very risky to go around trumpeting period of low numbers, given the natural ebb and flows. Stats may be dry, but an annual figure showing success would probably be more effective, if they have success to show.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 54,382
    kle4 said:

    isam said:

    BBC News was pleased to tell us this morning that no illegals had crossed the channel for 28 days. Labour MPs boasted about their success.

    It’s called the weather... now over 700 have arrived today!


    https://x.com/nigel_farage/status/1999906039253360787?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    Sounds very risky to go around trumpeting period of low numbers, given the natural ebb and flows. Stats may be dry, but an annual figure showing success would probably be more effective, if they have success to show.
    It was the longest period without a crossing since 2018.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 84,428

    Nigelb said:

    Papers please, in the land of the free..

    It's the land of the free, not the land of the free-for-all.
    I notice you cut the following from @Nigelb's comment so that you didn't have to face into it:

    "Armed ICE agents trapped U.S. citizens in a restaurant and demanded their papers. Do you carry your papers?

    Federal agents walked into East African restaurants in Cedar-Riverside Tuesday. They closed and blocked the doors. Then they demanded to see everyone’s papers.

    Every single person was a U.S. citizen.

    AP videographer/journalist and Council Member Jamal Osman witnessed it. Osman has been warning his Somali constituents to carry their passports everywhere...

    https://x.com/LittleCongress/status/1999866399909404935
    "
    Following the back and forth the other day about whether or not they deported a veteran...

    Earlier this week, Kristi Noem told me under oath that she has not deported veterans. I then introduced her to one that she did deport.

    But it’s much worse than that:

    @RepMoulton got DHS to admit that they’ve deported at least 8 vets and are planning to deport dozens more.

    https://x.com/Rep_Magaziner/status/1999886866988868080
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 84,428
    A new report from The New York Times reveals how the Trump administration and some members of the president's family may have been involved in a larger movement in conservative circles to support Andrew and Tristan Tate, right-wing influencers charged with rape, human trafficking and other crimes.
    https://x.com/NewsHour/status/1999319297496056246
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,674
    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    isam said:

    BBC News was pleased to tell us this morning that no illegals had crossed the channel for 28 days. Labour MPs boasted about their success.

    It’s called the weather... now over 700 have arrived today!


    https://x.com/nigel_farage/status/1999906039253360787?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    Sounds very risky to go around trumpeting period of low numbers, given the natural ebb and flows. Stats may be dry, but an annual figure showing success would probably be more effective, if they have success to show.
    It was the longest period without a crossing since 2018.
    Which is equivalent to saying it was the longest period of sustained bad weather since 2018.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 7,927
    I’ve found my favourite anti-trump US social media talking head, Loren Piretra. She makes good arguments but most importantly she absolutely ridiculously hot.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 84,428

    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    isam said:

    BBC News was pleased to tell us this morning that no illegals had crossed the channel for 28 days. Labour MPs boasted about their success.

    It’s called the weather... now over 700 have arrived today!


    https://x.com/nigel_farage/status/1999906039253360787?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    Sounds very risky to go around trumpeting period of low numbers, given the natural ebb and flows. Stats may be dry, but an annual figure showing success would probably be more effective, if they have success to show.
    It was the longest period without a crossing since 2018.
    Which is equivalent to saying it was the longest period of sustained bad weather since 2018.
    Which is probably not true.
    https://weather.metoffice.gov.uk/warnings-and-advice/uk-storm-centre/uk-storm-season-2023-24
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 7,989
    kle4 said:

    isam said:

    BBC News was pleased to tell us this morning that no illegals had crossed the channel for 28 days. Labour MPs boasted about their success.

    It’s called the weather... now over 700 have arrived today!


    https://x.com/nigel_farage/status/1999906039253360787?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    Sounds very risky to go around trumpeting period of low numbers, given the natural ebb and flows. Stats may be dry, but an annual figure showing success would probably be more effective, if they have success to show.
    It led the Classic FM news bulletins all afternoon. Eyes were rolled.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 59,201
    kle4 said:

    isam said:

    BBC News was pleased to tell us this morning that no illegals had crossed the channel for 28 days. Labour MPs boasted about their success.

    It’s called the weather... now over 700 have arrived today!


    https://x.com/nigel_farage/status/1999906039253360787?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    Sounds very risky to go around trumpeting period of low numbers, given the natural ebb and flows. Stats may be dry, but an annual figure showing success would probably be more effective, if they have success to show.
    Absurd that no-one checked the weather for the time period.

    Then again, journalists were asking about Murder Tuesday 6 months into COVID, so expecting learning is probably a bit much.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 30,998
    Movement in our future Anschluss partner.
    Second Tory MP in a month joins the Liberals.
    Carney now one short of a majority.
  • Nigelb said:

    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    isam said:

    BBC News was pleased to tell us this morning that no illegals had crossed the channel for 28 days. Labour MPs boasted about their success.

    It’s called the weather... now over 700 have arrived today!


    https://x.com/nigel_farage/status/1999906039253360787?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    Sounds very risky to go around trumpeting period of low numbers, given the natural ebb and flows. Stats may be dry, but an annual figure showing success would probably be more effective, if they have success to show.
    It was the longest period without a crossing since 2018.
    Which is equivalent to saying it was the longest period of sustained bad weather since 2018.
    Which is probably not true.
    https://weather.metoffice.gov.uk/warnings-and-advice/uk-storm-centre/uk-storm-season-2023-24
    Details, details.

    If you are the government, any good stuff is down to your brilliance, anything bad is due to global factors out of your control.

    If you are the opposition, reverse that.

    (The lack of wind in the first part of 2025 even shows up on the electricity generation stats;
    https://grid.iamkate.com/ Only a graceless oaf would deny that...)
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 33,483
    Carnyx said:

    Nigelb said:

    biggles said:

    kinabalu said:

    If I may toss a cherry into the trifle - if individual countries all start tooling up to the max to defend themselves against allcomers that's going to lead to nothing good at all.

    Are you starting something?
    Isn't it sherry one chucks into trifle ?
    Cherries are for a quite different desert.
    It's a single glacé cherry that one *places* onto trifle.

    My late mother's sherry trifle for Christmas dinner, as an alternative or complement to clootie dumpling, had plenty of cream, and sherry, and ratafia biscuits, and home-made raspberry jam, and home-made egg custard, and several dozen dragees, but just one cherry.

    Edit: also some candied angelica stem pieces.

    Christmases have never been the same since she departed.
    Sounds delicious.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 59,201
    Nigelb said:

    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    isam said:

    BBC News was pleased to tell us this morning that no illegals had crossed the channel for 28 days. Labour MPs boasted about their success.

    It’s called the weather... now over 700 have arrived today!


    https://x.com/nigel_farage/status/1999906039253360787?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

    Sounds very risky to go around trumpeting period of low numbers, given the natural ebb and flows. Stats may be dry, but an annual figure showing success would probably be more effective, if they have success to show.
    It was the longest period without a crossing since 2018.
    Which is equivalent to saying it was the longest period of sustained bad weather since 2018.
    Which is probably not true.
    https://weather.metoffice.gov.uk/warnings-and-advice/uk-storm-centre/uk-storm-season-2023-24
    You don’t need a storm to make the Channel a dicey proposition to cross by small boat. Gusting winds, especially against the tide would be nasty.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 33,483
    dixiedean said:

    Movement in our future Anschluss partner.
    Second Tory MP in a month joins the Liberals.
    Carney now one short of a majority.

    And still several short of a picnic.
  • NEW THREAD

  • isamisam Posts: 43,220
    🚨 Latest Opinium @ObserverUK poll 🚨

    Kemi Badenoch’s direction may be helping to repair the Conservative Party's brand:

    📈 Knowing what it stands for: now -4 (up 12 pts)
    📈 Having a clear sense of purpose: -10 (up 13 pts)
    📈 Being united: -16 (up 12 pts)


    https://x.com/opiniumresearch/status/1999954985686048868?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
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