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We need to talk about the size of Nigel Farage’s membership – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,838
edited 8:45AM in General
We need to talk about the size of Nigel Farage’s membership – politicalbetting.com

Reform UK has become Britain’s largest party by membership, overtaking Labour after it shed 100,000 members since the general election ?? https://t.co/SPOZXkFaOo

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Comments

  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 23,985
    That sentence from The Times is so poorly structured, with the "it" potentially applying to Reform rather than Labour.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 23,985
    Yesterday's Labour entryists are today's Green entryists.

    Gaining members is great, just as long as they share the core values of the party.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 23,985
    Anecdotally, membership numbers in our branch are fairly steady.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 20,991
    It's still a pretty small number in a country of 70 million.

    Echoes of the membership conversation on the last thread. As a society, we tend not to join clubs in the same way that our parents did.

    Some of that is because of factors that are good things- there are better ways of obtaining food, drink and a bed than in the past, and it's harder to get sufficiently cheap staff.

    But something has got lost as well.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 23,985
    We should also differentiate between members who pay their subs and that's all, and active members who do crazy stuff like attending meetings, delivering leaflets, canvassing and, if they are totally bonkers, stand for election.

    The vast majority of Labour members are in the first category.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 132,109
    Yes Corbyn had even more party members than Farage but still lost two general elections. The fact is beyond MPs, councillors and other elected officials leftwing and rightwing ideologues are more likely to join political parties than swing voters are. So the more hardline and ideological the party leadership the higher its membership. It means little beyond that
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,847
    There's members and members though. How many Fukkers are steely eyed political operators with a worm poll for a heartbeat and how many are gap toothed piss artists up a ladder every night putting flegs on streetlights? Mass membership might not necessarily mean an effective political machine.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 23,985
    Reform charge, iirc, £25 membership. So they'll have taken in several million quid from those sign-ups.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,902


    Ian Dunt

    @iandunt.bsky.social‬

    What the fuck have i just watched?



    ‪Every Film Now‬ ‪@everyfilmnow.bsky.social‬

    First trailer for Andy Serkis’ ‘ANIMAL FARM’ has dropped.

    In theaters May 1.

    #AnimalFarm #AndySerkis

    https://bsky.app/profile/iandunt.bsky.social/post/3m7t5qyxgjs2e

    That's quite something to behold.

    It's actually quite difficult to tell from that trailer how much Orwell is intact underneath the attempt to graft on wise cracking action adventure cartoon zaniness, there does seem to be an amount in there. I actually don't know if that makes things better or worse.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 54,371

    We should also differentiate between members who pay their subs and that's all, and active members who do crazy stuff like attending meetings, delivering leaflets, canvassing and, if they are totally bonkers, stand for election.

    The vast majority of Labour members are in the first category.

    Thats true of pretty much all parties.

    I don't think membership numbers matter much in a world where elections are won by keyboard warriors, including those overseas.

    Just look at last years election for example where a number of candidates who did no campaigning got thousands of votes.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jul/08/reform-uk-under-pressure-to-prove-all-its-candidates-were-real-people?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other

    We saw it to at the locals where quite a few paper candidates got elected as Reform councillors.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 20,991
    Foxy said:

    We should also differentiate between members who pay their subs and that's all, and active members who do crazy stuff like attending meetings, delivering leaflets, canvassing and, if they are totally bonkers, stand for election.

    The vast majority of Labour members are in the first category.

    Thats true of pretty much all parties.

    I don't think membership numbers matter much in a world where elections are won by keyboard warriors, including those overseas.

    Just look at last years election for example where a number of candidates who did no campaigning got thousands of votes.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jul/08/reform-uk-under-pressure-to-prove-all-its-candidates-were-real-people?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other

    We saw it to at the locals where quite a few paper candidates got elected as Reform councillors.
    It doesn't matter much for the parties trying to get elected, but I'm pretty sure it does matter for what happens to parties in government.

    It doesn't look efficient, but there's a lot to be said for the insights you get from talking to actual people. Social members of political parties aren't normal people, but they are less abnormal than the activists.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 16,059

    It's still a pretty small number in a country of 70 million.

    Echoes of the membership conversation on the last thread. As a society, we tend not to join clubs in the same way that our parents did.

    Some of that is because of factors that are good things- there are better ways of obtaining food, drink and a bed than in the past, and it's harder to get sufficiently cheap staff.

    But something has got lost as well.

    Yes, something has been lost, and it's worth a book - like Bowling Alone, published 25 years ago now. A couple of ways it seems to me:

    Women join things because of who else is included of like mind to them, and tend to join things free of ideology of any sort. Men tend to join things because of who else isn't let in. Exclusivity counts.

    When it comes to politics, joining party X as opposed to generally voting for party X means a depth of commitment and a sort of personality which is atypical. This means that when the membership vote for the leader (in a sense the only interesting thing they ever do to the rest of us) they are untypical of the wishes of potential voters. The wrong brother, Jezza, Truss, whicever disaster the parties will next inflict on us and so on).

    The mass of the voting public actually want prosperous social democracy really well run, with high levels of state expenditure and well regulated capitalism and peace in our time. (The question of whether this can still be done is pretty urgent, as no other options are in sight. As Reform will shortly discover.) While important, this ideology is boring and shared between all centrists. For most it isn't worth joining a party, giving up your evenings or delivering leaflets for.

  • CookieCookie Posts: 16,507
    algarkirk said:

    It's still a pretty small number in a country of 70 million.

    Echoes of the membership conversation on the last thread. As a society, we tend not to join clubs in the same way that our parents did.

    Some of that is because of factors that are good things- there are better ways of obtaining food, drink and a bed than in the past, and it's harder to get sufficiently cheap staff.

    But something has got lost as well.

    Yes, something has been lost, and it's worth a book - like Bowling Alone, published 25 years ago now. A couple of ways it seems to me:

    Women join things because of who else is included of like mind to them, and tend to join things free of ideology of any sort. Men tend to join things because of who else isn't let in. Exclusivity counts.

    When it comes to politics, joining party X as opposed to generally voting for party X means a depth of commitment and a sort of personality which is atypical. This means that when the membership vote for the leader (in a sense the only interesting thing they ever do to the rest of us) they are untypical of the wishes of potential voters. The wrong brother, Jezza, Truss, whicever disaster the parties will next inflict on us and so on).

    The mass of the voting public actually want prosperous social democracy really well run, with high levels of state expenditure and well regulated capitalism and peace in our time. (The question of whether this can still be done is pretty urgent, as no other options are in sight. As Reform will shortly discover.) While important, this ideology is boring and shared between all centrists. For most it isn't worth joining a party, giving up your evenings or delivering leaflets for.

    I'm not sure that's true (of men joining clubs) except for a small number of relatively high profile but unrepresentative examples (e.g. the discussion of White's etc last night). Mostly we join clubs for the same reason women do i.e. to do stuff, support stuff, etc.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,847
    I see the DM this morning is bemoaning the Polish exodus from the UK. The leavers got what they voted for, the fucking mugs.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 16,059

    Reform charge, iirc, £25 membership. So they'll have taken in several million quid from those sign-ups.

    Yes. Take £25 off .05% of UK adults are you are sitting on +£6m. 99.5% of adults have not joined up. 285,000 sounds like a biggish number. In a community of 6000 - small market town in my part of the world where Reform is quite strong - it means about 25 members. 5975 non members.

  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 47,016
    Dura_Ace said:

    I see the DM this morning is bemoaning the Polish exodus from the UK. The leavers got what they voted for, the fucking mugs.

    What are they complaining about, exactly? The front page is all royal cancer or lack thereof (happily).
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 16,059
    Cookie said:

    algarkirk said:

    It's still a pretty small number in a country of 70 million.

    Echoes of the membership conversation on the last thread. As a society, we tend not to join clubs in the same way that our parents did.

    Some of that is because of factors that are good things- there are better ways of obtaining food, drink and a bed than in the past, and it's harder to get sufficiently cheap staff.

    But something has got lost as well.

    Yes, something has been lost, and it's worth a book - like Bowling Alone, published 25 years ago now. A couple of ways it seems to me:

    Women join things because of who else is included of like mind to them, and tend to join things free of ideology of any sort. Men tend to join things because of who else isn't let in. Exclusivity counts.

    When it comes to politics, joining party X as opposed to generally voting for party X means a depth of commitment and a sort of personality which is atypical. This means that when the membership vote for the leader (in a sense the only interesting thing they ever do to the rest of us) they are untypical of the wishes of potential voters. The wrong brother, Jezza, Truss, whicever disaster the parties will next inflict on us and so on).

    The mass of the voting public actually want prosperous social democracy really well run, with high levels of state expenditure and well regulated capitalism and peace in our time. (The question of whether this can still be done is pretty urgent, as no other options are in sight. As Reform will shortly discover.) While important, this ideology is boring and shared between all centrists. For most it isn't worth joining a party, giving up your evenings or delivering leaflets for.

    I'm not sure that's true (of men joining clubs) except for a small number of relatively high profile but unrepresentative examples (e.g. the discussion of White's etc last night). Mostly we join clubs for the same reason women do i.e. to do stuff, support stuff, etc.
    Perhaps I am too sceptical about male nature. But I think behaviour patterns have a tendency to vary as I suggest. And I think men value exclusivity more than women.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 57,095
    algarkirk said:

    Cookie said:

    algarkirk said:

    It's still a pretty small number in a country of 70 million.

    Echoes of the membership conversation on the last thread. As a society, we tend not to join clubs in the same way that our parents did.

    Some of that is because of factors that are good things- there are better ways of obtaining food, drink and a bed than in the past, and it's harder to get sufficiently cheap staff.

    But something has got lost as well.

    Yes, something has been lost, and it's worth a book - like Bowling Alone, published 25 years ago now. A couple of ways it seems to me:

    Women join things because of who else is included of like mind to them, and tend to join things free of ideology of any sort. Men tend to join things because of who else isn't let in. Exclusivity counts.

    When it comes to politics, joining party X as opposed to generally voting for party X means a depth of commitment and a sort of personality which is atypical. This means that when the membership vote for the leader (in a sense the only interesting thing they ever do to the rest of us) they are untypical of the wishes of potential voters. The wrong brother, Jezza, Truss, whicever disaster the parties will next inflict on us and so on).

    The mass of the voting public actually want prosperous social democracy really well run, with high levels of state expenditure and well regulated capitalism and peace in our time. (The question of whether this can still be done is pretty urgent, as no other options are in sight. As Reform will shortly discover.) While important, this ideology is boring and shared between all centrists. For most it isn't worth joining a party, giving up your evenings or delivering leaflets for.

    I'm not sure that's true (of men joining clubs) except for a small number of relatively high profile but unrepresentative examples (e.g. the discussion of White's etc last night). Mostly we join clubs for the same reason women do i.e. to do stuff, support stuff, etc.
    Perhaps I am too sceptical about male nature. But I think behaviour patterns have a tendency to vary as I suggest. And I think men value exclusivity more than women.
    Hmm I'm kinda hoping my wife doesn't feel that way.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 33,480
    Carnyx said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    I see the DM this morning is bemoaning the Polish exodus from the UK. The leavers got what they voted for, the fucking mugs.

    What are they complaining about, exactly? The front page is all royal cancer or lack thereof (happily).
    I wouldn't have had Dura down as a DM reader. I wonder if he's collecting vouchers for a special commerorative coin.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 46,039
    edited 9:43AM
    This has got it all, Stone Island, Buckfast, gammony mook having a spare hoody for just such occasions. Thank goodness he wasn’t dusky hued or else we’d have days and days of media speculation.

    https://x.com/terrychristian/status/1999476197466735021?s=46&t=fJymV-V84rexmlQMLXHHJQ
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 4,441
    The Reform support seems to be people seeing in it a home for all their worries & concerns. It's unlikely that Reform could satisfy all those even if propelled into government. My concern is that the worries & concerns of all those people will be dismissed & ridiculed by other, more 'acceptable' parties and further down the line, like Brexit on steroids, all those 'despicables' will be out on the streets as a set of full-blooded mobs.

    Good morning, everybody.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 46,039
    AnneJGP said:

    The Reform support seems to be people seeing in it a home for all their worries & concerns. It's unlikely that Reform could satisfy all those even if propelled into government. My concern is that the worries & concerns of all those people will be dismissed & ridiculed by other, more 'acceptable' parties and further down the line, like Brexit on steroids, all those 'despicables' will be out on the streets as a set of full-blooded mobs.

    Good morning, everybody.

    The current government seems to be making a lot of Reform adjacent noises about those worries & concerns. Unfortunately like so much else concerning Labour, folk don’t think (probably correctly) that they mean it.
    Connectedly I read that Shabana Mahmood has been removing pro immigration:asylum content from her website.

    https://x.com/andrewfeinstein/status/1999185745660018938?s=46&t=fJymV-V84rexmlQMLXHHJQ
  • MustaphaMondeoMustaphaMondeo Posts: 403
    I guess it depends on perspective

    Reform is scarily big.
    Nobody cares about Reform.



    Greens have just passed 180k which may be irrelevant unless you are the treasurer and you can’t afford to post stuff direct?

    The numbers might be irrelevant to Reform anyway considering a £9m donation. Their leaflets are national and posted. Though I’ve seen the odd local delivery team.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 47,016

    Carnyx said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    I see the DM this morning is bemoaning the Polish exodus from the UK. The leavers got what they voted for, the fucking mugs.

    What are they complaining about, exactly? The front page is all royal cancer or lack thereof (happily).
    I wouldn't have had Dura down as a DM reader. I wonder if he's collecting vouchers for a special commerorative coin.
    Ah, found it - for once not paywalled.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-15379789/Polish-exodus-arrival-Britain-tax.html

    Funny dat. No mention of Brexit. Except very obliquely: "'Visa anxiety' – the fear that they won't be able to work in Britain and visit Poland easily – is another often stated reason.'
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 23,985
    Foxy said:

    We should also differentiate between members who pay their subs and that's all, and active members who do crazy stuff like attending meetings, delivering leaflets, canvassing and, if they are totally bonkers, stand for election.

    The vast majority of Labour members are in the first category.

    Thats true of pretty much all parties.

    I don't think membership numbers matter much in a world where elections are won by keyboard warriors, including those overseas.

    Just look at last years election for example where a number of candidates who did no campaigning got thousands of votes.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jul/08/reform-uk-under-pressure-to-prove-all-its-candidates-were-real-people?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other

    We saw it to at the locals where quite a few paper candidates got elected as Reform councillors.
    I've always been highly sceptical of what is achieved by the 'ground game', especially at General Elections.

    For locals, it can sway a few results at the margins, but as we see every year, the overall change in seats just follows national opinion poll trends.

    One reason why I can't be arsed door knocking.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 47,016

    AnneJGP said:

    The Reform support seems to be people seeing in it a home for all their worries & concerns. It's unlikely that Reform could satisfy all those even if propelled into government. My concern is that the worries & concerns of all those people will be dismissed & ridiculed by other, more 'acceptable' parties and further down the line, like Brexit on steroids, all those 'despicables' will be out on the streets as a set of full-blooded mobs.

    Good morning, everybody.

    The current government seems to be making a lot of Reform adjacent noises about those worries & concerns. Unfortunately like so much else concerning Labour, folk don’t think (probably correctly) that they mean it.
    Connectedly I read that Shabana Mahmood has been removing pro immigration:asylum content from her website.

    https://x.com/andrewfeinstein/status/1999185745660018938?s=46&t=fJymV-V84rexmlQMLXHHJQ
    Obvs not heard of scraping-and-archiving websites (it's surprising how few people seem to know about them, but they're not that unknown).
  • DoctorGDoctorG Posts: 331
    Dura_Ace said:

    I see the DM this morning is bemoaning the Polish exodus from the UK. The leavers got what they voted for, the fucking mugs.

    That exodus has been ongoing for a few years ... the latest employees in manual labour in this neck are largely Filipino. Think visa rules are stopping many more coming in
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 54,371
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    I see the DM this morning is bemoaning the Polish exodus from the UK. The leavers got what they voted for, the fucking mugs.

    What are they complaining about, exactly? The front page is all royal cancer or lack thereof (happily).
    I wouldn't have had Dura down as a DM reader. I wonder if he's collecting vouchers for a special commerorative coin.
    Ah, found it - for once not paywalled.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-15379789/Polish-exodus-arrival-Britain-tax.html

    Funny dat. No mention of Brexit. Except very obliquely: "'Visa anxiety' – the fear that they won't be able to work in Britain and visit Poland easily – is another often stated reason.'
    Its quite funny really. The DM doesn't seem to be able to link Brexit and our economic decline either. I wonder why.
  • AugustusCarp2AugustusCarp2 Posts: 512
    Does anyone remember David Penhaligon these days? He used to talk about "seed cake members" of the Truro Liberal Party in the 1960s. They always said that they were members of the party, and always had a seed cake to donate to the jumble sale or coffee morning, but were otherwise completely invisible. Never paid any subscriptions, never attended any meetings and, above all, never did any work before or during elections. I suspect that a lot of Reform UK members will be like that - just like a lot of the Corbynistas, come to think of it. Obviously, in these days of on-line banking they will have paid a modest subscription to join, but otherwise they won't be at all active. Indeed, they might even be a drain on resources, if HQ have to waste resources in mailing them and trying to get them involved.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,908
    HYUFD said:

    Yes Corbyn had even more party members than Farage but still lost two general elections. The fact is beyond MPs, councillors and other elected officials leftwing and rightwing ideologues are more likely to join political parties than swing voters are. So the more hardline and ideological the party leadership the higher its membership. It means little beyond that

    I think it's proportionate - 2% or so of members are usually active. But there's I suspect that being in power and making (necessary?) compromises depresses the 2% more than most.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,248
    edited 10:10AM

    Carnyx said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    I see the DM this morning is bemoaning the Polish exodus from the UK. The leavers got what they voted for, the fucking mugs.

    What are they complaining about, exactly? The front page is all royal cancer or lack thereof (happily).
    I wouldn't have had Dura down as a DM reader. I wonder if he's collecting vouchers for a special commerorative coin.
    There's a certain kind of leftist who spends half their life reading the Daily Mail.

    I'm also pretty sure that on Desert Island Discs Paul Dacre chose as his luxury item an endless supply of the Guardian newspaper. Some people's lives are so sad they spend their time making themselves angry about what they disagree with.

    Enjoy the Christmas spirit in town today.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 76,398
    What sort of absolute tosser would do this?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c62nnpez1l4o
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 15,038

    Does anyone remember David Penhaligon these days? He used to talk about "seed cake members" of the Truro Liberal Party in the 1960s. They always said that they were members of the party, and always had a seed cake to donate to the jumble sale or coffee morning, but were otherwise completely invisible. Never paid any subscriptions, never attended any meetings and, above all, never did any work before or during elections. I suspect that a lot of Reform UK members will be like that - just like a lot of the Corbynistas, come to think of it. Obviously, in these days of on-line banking they will have paid a modest subscription to join, but otherwise they won't be at all active. Indeed, they might even be a drain on resources, if HQ have to waste resources in mailing them and trying to get them involved.

    Remember him well, Augustus. He was a great talent, and widely regarded as the best stand up comedian in the house. His death was tragic and a huge loss to the Liberal Party.

    I am sure he was right about seed cake.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 35,963
    Foxy said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    I see the DM this morning is bemoaning the Polish exodus from the UK. The leavers got what they voted for, the fucking mugs.

    What are they complaining about, exactly? The front page is all royal cancer or lack thereof (happily).
    I wouldn't have had Dura down as a DM reader. I wonder if he's collecting vouchers for a special commerorative coin.
    Ah, found it - for once not paywalled.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-15379789/Polish-exodus-arrival-Britain-tax.html

    Funny dat. No mention of Brexit. Except very obliquely: "'Visa anxiety' – the fear that they won't be able to work in Britain and visit Poland easily – is another often stated reason.'
    Its quite funny really. The DM doesn't seem to be able to link Brexit and our economic decline either. I wonder why.
    The Daily Mail was part of the right wing cabal that killed the golden goose and consumed it with gusto. And now they are bemoaning a shortage of golden eggs and scratching around for someone that they can blame for the scarcity.
  • AugustusCarp2AugustusCarp2 Posts: 512

    Does anyone remember David Penhaligon these days? He used to talk about "seed cake members" of the Truro Liberal Party in the 1960s. They always said that they were members of the party, and always had a seed cake to donate to the jumble sale or coffee morning, but were otherwise completely invisible. Never paid any subscriptions, never attended any meetings and, above all, never did any work before or during elections. I suspect that a lot of Reform UK members will be like that - just like a lot of the Corbynistas, come to think of it. Obviously, in these days of on-line banking they will have paid a modest subscription to join, but otherwise they won't be at all active. Indeed, they might even be a drain on resources, if HQ have to waste resources in mailing them and trying to get them involved.

    Remember him well, Augustus. He was a great talent, and widely regarded as the best stand up comedian in the house. His death was tragic and a huge loss to the Liberal Party.

    I am sure he was right about seed cake.
    The biggest mistake he ever made was in letting people realise that he had a sense of humour. Once he was recognised as being funny, he was easy to dismiss as a lightweight. Nothing could have been further from the truth.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 15,038
    ydoethur said:

    What sort of absolute tosser would do this?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c62nnpez1l4o

    Shotton isn't a million miles from Cumberland Gap, is it?

    Maybe it's something in the water around there.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,248
    Brexit could well be an issue but a bigger one may simply be economic reality. Back in 2004 the UK looked much more prosperous than Poland. Now? Not so much. That's certainly the feeling I got from speaking to a Pole last year.

    What would be interesting is some kind of comparison with other European countries Poles have migrated to such as France and Germany.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 16,059

    HYUFD said:

    Yes Corbyn had even more party members than Farage but still lost two general elections. The fact is beyond MPs, councillors and other elected officials leftwing and rightwing ideologues are more likely to join political parties than swing voters are. So the more hardline and ideological the party leadership the higher its membership. It means little beyond that

    I think it's proportionate - 2% or so of members are usually active. But there's I suspect that being in power and making (necessary?) compromises depresses the 2% more than most.
    The resulting calculation is revealing, if this is true. Say 500,000 members (which is big). That's about 800 per constituency. 2% of 800 is 16. The population of each constituency is about 100,000. It isn't even a drop in the ocean.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 16,059
    ydoethur said:

    What sort of absolute tosser would do this?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c62nnpez1l4o

    Unusually there are some recent sentencing precedents for loved tree chopping.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,248

    Foxy said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    I see the DM this morning is bemoaning the Polish exodus from the UK. The leavers got what they voted for, the fucking mugs.

    What are they complaining about, exactly? The front page is all royal cancer or lack thereof (happily).
    I wouldn't have had Dura down as a DM reader. I wonder if he's collecting vouchers for a special commerorative coin.
    Ah, found it - for once not paywalled.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-15379789/Polish-exodus-arrival-Britain-tax.html

    Funny dat. No mention of Brexit. Except very obliquely: "'Visa anxiety' – the fear that they won't be able to work in Britain and visit Poland easily – is another often stated reason.'
    Its quite funny really. The DM doesn't seem to be able to link Brexit and our economic decline either. I wonder why.
    The Daily Mail was part of the right wing cabal that killed the golden goose and consumed it with gusto. And now they are bemoaning a shortage of golden eggs and scratching around for someone that they can blame for the scarcity.
    Believing EU membership was a golden goose partly explains why we are where we are.

    You're from a part of the UK that has done badly economically for decades. Don't you see this?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 59,190
    ydoethur said:

    What sort of absolute tosser would do this?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c62nnpez1l4o

    “Some men just want to see the world burn” - various edgelord types take this to mean a kind of cool, total anarchy.

    The reality is tosspots who can’t see a window without wanting to smash it.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 17,497
    Eugh, I see that "Tommy Robinson" is trying to ruin Christmas Carols. Just no.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 17,497

    Foxy said:

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    I see the DM this morning is bemoaning the Polish exodus from the UK. The leavers got what they voted for, the fucking mugs.

    What are they complaining about, exactly? The front page is all royal cancer or lack thereof (happily).
    I wouldn't have had Dura down as a DM reader. I wonder if he's collecting vouchers for a special commerorative coin.
    Ah, found it - for once not paywalled.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-15379789/Polish-exodus-arrival-Britain-tax.html

    Funny dat. No mention of Brexit. Except very obliquely: "'Visa anxiety' – the fear that they won't be able to work in Britain and visit Poland easily – is another often stated reason.'
    Its quite funny really. The DM doesn't seem to be able to link Brexit and our economic decline either. I wonder why.
    The Daily Mail was part of the right wing cabal that killed the golden goose and consumed it with gusto. And now they are bemoaning a shortage of golden eggs and scratching around for someone that they can blame for the scarcity.
    Believing EU membership was a golden goose partly explains why we are where we are.

    You're from a part of the UK that has done badly economically for decades. Don't you see this?
    Mexico?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,908
    algarkirk said:

    HYUFD said:

    Yes Corbyn had even more party members than Farage but still lost two general elections. The fact is beyond MPs, councillors and other elected officials leftwing and rightwing ideologues are more likely to join political parties than swing voters are. So the more hardline and ideological the party leadership the higher its membership. It means little beyond that

    I think it's proportionate - 2% or so of members are usually active. But there's I suspect that being in power and making (necessary?) compromises depresses the 2% more than most.
    The resulting calculation is revealing, if this is true. Say 500,000 members (which is big). That's about 800 per constituency. 2% of 800 is 16. The population of each constituency is about 100,000. It isn't even a drop in the ocean.
    That's right. But the 2% are disproportionately keen when things are perceived as going well. I've canvassed thousands of homes in a couple of weeks, and as few as 10 activists can ring most doorbells in a constituenvy. When things are perceived by them as going poorly, the number drops massively.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 23,985
    algarkirk said:

    HYUFD said:

    Yes Corbyn had even more party members than Farage but still lost two general elections. The fact is beyond MPs, councillors and other elected officials leftwing and rightwing ideologues are more likely to join political parties than swing voters are. So the more hardline and ideological the party leadership the higher its membership. It means little beyond that

    I think it's proportionate - 2% or so of members are usually active. But there's I suspect that being in power and making (necessary?) compromises depresses the 2% more than most.
    The resulting calculation is revealing, if this is true. Say 500,000 members (which is big). That's about 800 per constituency. 2% of 800 is 16. The population of each constituency is about 100,000. It isn't even a drop in the ocean.
    I think 2% is too low. I would put it at between 5% and 10% who are active to some degree. Some never come to meetings, but are happy to do a leaflet round. Others live and breathe for the party.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 16,059

    Does anyone remember David Penhaligon these days? He used to talk about "seed cake members" of the Truro Liberal Party in the 1960s. They always said that they were members of the party, and always had a seed cake to donate to the jumble sale or coffee morning, but were otherwise completely invisible. Never paid any subscriptions, never attended any meetings and, above all, never did any work before or during elections. I suspect that a lot of Reform UK members will be like that - just like a lot of the Corbynistas, come to think of it. Obviously, in these days of on-line banking they will have paid a modest subscription to join, but otherwise they won't be at all active. Indeed, they might even be a drain on resources, if HQ have to waste resources in mailing them and trying to get them involved.

    Only a small % of the total population are volunteer activists of any sort. My guess it is about 10%. The culture has shifted for this group - which is millions strong of course - from politics to things like environment, nature, health, sport, culture, heritage, temporary single issue stuff, foodbanks, helping in schools. In totality religious volunteering remains substantial though much smaller than it once was.

    The shift can be generalised as one from the general national political good, to the specific and identifiable and especially local good, where the effect and impact is clear.

    One big reason for the modern difficulties is that when I was young the local voluntary world was run by middle class mothers who didn't work.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 16,059

    Eugh, I see that "Tommy Robinson" is trying to ruin Christmas Carols. Just no.

    It's a mistake to draw attention to it; a mistake I think mainstream churches and our beloved bishops might be making. Freedom of religion, carols and all that belong to everyone, including rapists and murderers in prison (for whom a whole body of priests and ministers is provided by the tax payer) and egregiously wicked rabble rousing public trouble makers who have to find their own ludicrous 'clergy' to sustain them.

  • AugustusCarp2AugustusCarp2 Posts: 512
    algarkirk said:

    Does anyone remember David Penhaligon these days? He used to talk about "seed cake members" of the Truro Liberal Party in the 1960s. They always said that they were members of the party, and always had a seed cake to donate to the jumble sale or coffee morning, but were otherwise completely invisible. Never paid any subscriptions, never attended any meetings and, above all, never did any work before or during elections. I suspect that a lot of Reform UK members will be like that - just like a lot of the Corbynistas, come to think of it. Obviously, in these days of on-line banking they will have paid a modest subscription to join, but otherwise they won't be at all active. Indeed, they might even be a drain on resources, if HQ have to waste resources in mailing them and trying to get them involved.

    Only a small % of the total population are volunteer activists of any sort. My guess it is about 10%. The culture has shifted for this group - which is millions strong of course - from politics to things like environment, nature, health, sport, culture, heritage, temporary single issue stuff, foodbanks, helping in schools. In totality religious volunteering remains substantial though much smaller than it once was.

    The shift can be generalised as one from the general national political good, to the specific and identifiable and especially local good, where the effect and impact is clear.

    One big reason for the modern difficulties is that when I was young the local voluntary world was run by middle class mothers who didn't work.
    Yes, some very good points there. The phenomenon was analysed in some detail in Robert Putnam's book "Bowling Alone". In his example, ten-pin bowling is as popular as it has ever been, but the number of leagues and competitions (in America) has diminished, as no-one is willing to be the fixture secretary, collect the subs, etc. There's a general lack of willingness to "commit".

    On a slightly different point (but still supporting your view) is the problem in becoming a volunteer these days. I cannot help out in my Church creche on Sunday mornings unless I have a DBS check, I can't help in the local charity shop unless I go on a training course first, and I am told that the rules and regulations for being a treasurer or chair of a political party branch are significant nowadays. It's generally easier to nominally subscribe as a supporter of any initiative, and then let other people get on with the work.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 59,190
    algarkirk said:

    Does anyone remember David Penhaligon these days? He used to talk about "seed cake members" of the Truro Liberal Party in the 1960s. They always said that they were members of the party, and always had a seed cake to donate to the jumble sale or coffee morning, but were otherwise completely invisible. Never paid any subscriptions, never attended any meetings and, above all, never did any work before or during elections. I suspect that a lot of Reform UK members will be like that - just like a lot of the Corbynistas, come to think of it. Obviously, in these days of on-line banking they will have paid a modest subscription to join, but otherwise they won't be at all active. Indeed, they might even be a drain on resources, if HQ have to waste resources in mailing them and trying to get them involved.

    Only a small % of the total population are volunteer activists of any sort. My guess it is about 10%. The culture has shifted for this group - which is millions strong of course - from politics to things like environment, nature, health, sport, culture, heritage, temporary single issue stuff, foodbanks, helping in schools. In totality religious volunteering remains substantial though much smaller than it once was.

    The shift can be generalised as one from the general national political good, to the specific and identifiable and especially local good, where the effect and impact is clear.

    One big reason for the modern difficulties is that when I was young the local voluntary world was run by middle class mothers who didn't work.
    There is the phenomenon of group size putting people off. There’s name for the effect, can’t remember it.

    My youngest daughter was in the first class of a new primary school. Two classes of 25.

    The PTA was incredibly active. Nearly every parent was active in some way. The fund raising was astonishing.

    By the time she’d left, the PTA had turned into a much smaller sub group of the parents. Dominated by the I-want-to-be-in-charge types.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 46,039

    Eugh, I see that "Tommy Robinson" is trying to ruin Christmas Carols. Just no.

    The bad kind of muppet. Christmas Carol
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 4,030

    Does anyone remember David Penhaligon these days? He used to talk about "seed cake members" of the Truro Liberal Party in the 1960s. They always said that they were members of the party, and always had a seed cake to donate to the jumble sale or coffee morning, but were otherwise completely invisible. Never paid any subscriptions, never attended any meetings and, above all, never did any work before or during elections. I suspect that a lot of Reform UK members will be like that - just like a lot of the Corbynistas, come to think of it. Obviously, in these days of on-line banking they will have paid a modest subscription to join, but otherwise they won't be at all active. Indeed, they might even be a drain on resources, if HQ have to waste resources in mailing them and trying to get them involved.

    David played the Cornish card very well, but behind the rustic accent was a very sharp political mind indeed. He was a brilliant campaigner and an inspirational builder of local support. Unusually for a politician of the time, he didn't drink, but could nevertheless be very good company late into the evening at the Liberal Assembly bar. His charisma, humour, and astute political mind were much missed. Even now the Liberal Democrat local party deemed to be the most successful recruiter gets the Penhaligon award.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 59,190
    Found this on another forum, US context but…

    “Before I retired we had two construction job openings at my company. We had 200 people put in for them. First was a drug test. That eliminated about half of the applicants. Next was a credit report. That eliminated some more. (We didn't want creditors dunning money and having us to take it out of their checks). Next was police record. More eliminated. Next was driving record, sense they would be driving company vehicles. We ended up with 5 people out of 200 to interview. The two we hired were college grads for construction jobs. 40 years ago, we could pick from a much larger group with only a high school degree.”
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 45,437

    This has got it all, Stone Island, Buckfast, gammony mook having a spare hoody for just such occasions. Thank goodness he wasn’t dusky hued or else we’d have days and days of media speculation.

    https://x.com/terrychristian/status/1999476197466735021?s=46&t=fJymV-V84rexmlQMLXHHJQ

    What a scumbag
  • kjhkjh Posts: 13,378

    Does anyone remember David Penhaligon these days? He used to talk about "seed cake members" of the Truro Liberal Party in the 1960s. They always said that they were members of the party, and always had a seed cake to donate to the jumble sale or coffee morning, but were otherwise completely invisible. Never paid any subscriptions, never attended any meetings and, above all, never did any work before or during elections. I suspect that a lot of Reform UK members will be like that - just like a lot of the Corbynistas, come to think of it. Obviously, in these days of on-line banking they will have paid a modest subscription to join, but otherwise they won't be at all active. Indeed, they might even be a drain on resources, if HQ have to waste resources in mailing them and trying to get them involved.

    I also remember him well. A great loss when he died tragically. He was correct about the membership. I am always quite surprised how much is done by so few in the LDs and I would say they probably have the highest percentage of active members compared to total members. Their activists are also willing to do so much more. I remember the days of the Tories having a large membership with a large delivery network with lots of people doing their own regular small rounds. They could cover a ward/constituency easily, but the deliverers would not do delivery after delivery after delivery and do it elsewhere (obviously a small number would). The LDs could, we didn't have anything like the Tory's full delivery network, but we could target like hell so we would flood the ones we were after.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 40,090

    algarkirk said:

    Does anyone remember David Penhaligon these days? He used to talk about "seed cake members" of the Truro Liberal Party in the 1960s. They always said that they were members of the party, and always had a seed cake to donate to the jumble sale or coffee morning, but were otherwise completely invisible. Never paid any subscriptions, never attended any meetings and, above all, never did any work before or during elections. I suspect that a lot of Reform UK members will be like that - just like a lot of the Corbynistas, come to think of it. Obviously, in these days of on-line banking they will have paid a modest subscription to join, but otherwise they won't be at all active. Indeed, they might even be a drain on resources, if HQ have to waste resources in mailing them and trying to get them involved.

    Only a small % of the total population are volunteer activists of any sort. My guess it is about 10%. The culture has shifted for this group - which is millions strong of course - from politics to things like environment, nature, health, sport, culture, heritage, temporary single issue stuff, foodbanks, helping in schools. In totality religious volunteering remains substantial though much smaller than it once was.

    The shift can be generalised as one from the general national political good, to the specific and identifiable and especially local good, where the effect and impact is clear.

    One big reason for the modern difficulties is that when I was young the local voluntary world was run by middle class mothers who didn't work.
    There is the phenomenon of group size putting people off. There’s name for the effect, can’t remember it.

    My youngest daughter was in the first class of a new primary school. Two classes of 25.

    The PTA was incredibly active. Nearly every parent was active in some way. The fund raising was astonishing.

    By the time she’d left, the PTA had turned into a much smaller sub group of the parents. Dominated by the I-want-to-be-in-charge types.
    People in rich societies become increasingly self-oriented, in ways that would have puzzled previous generations. There is both good and bad to that.

    There’s also a bad tendency for voluntary organisations to be captured by self-serving and venial “management”, who drive away the volunteers.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 38,818

    Does anyone remember David Penhaligon these days? He used to talk about "seed cake members" of the Truro Liberal Party in the 1960s. They always said that they were members of the party, and always had a seed cake to donate to the jumble sale or coffee morning, but were otherwise completely invisible. Never paid any subscriptions, never attended any meetings and, above all, never did any work before or during elections. I suspect that a lot of Reform UK members will be like that - just like a lot of the Corbynistas, come to think of it. Obviously, in these days of on-line banking they will have paid a modest subscription to join, but otherwise they won't be at all active. Indeed, they might even be a drain on resources, if HQ have to waste resources in mailing them and trying to get them involved.

    Always been a big fan of David Penhaligon. He's on ITN's 1983 election show here at about 51 mins 30 secs.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v3eb5b5DOZs
  • kjhkjh Posts: 13,378
    Interesting thread on London clubs yesterday.

    I was quite surprised by those who are members or interested in London Clubs. I don't know a soul who is a member of a London Club and it wouldn't cross my mind to join one. The only clubs I have joined are ones where it has a purpose eg Squash, Sailing, etc. Not sure I get it and I certainly wouldn't join one where you are vetted to get in or need to be proposed. That all sounds a bit snobbish to me.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 30,996
    edited 11:05AM
    Oh for a world in which Jimmy Savile could volunteer in a morgue and Ian Huntley be a school caretaker.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 7,665

    Eugh, I see that "Tommy Robinson" is trying to ruin Christmas Carols. Just no.

    The bad kind of muppet. Christmas Carol
    I went out with a Christmas Carol once. Well, she was called Carol because she was born on Christmas Eve. We used to say she was lucky not to be called Tree, or Present.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 56,862

    ydoethur said:

    What sort of absolute tosser would do this?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c62nnpez1l4o

    “Some men just want to see the world burn” - various edgelord types take this to mean a kind of cool, total anarchy.

    The reality is tosspots who can’t see a window without wanting to smash it.
    I can see the perpetrators discovering what community spirit means. And it will be a very mean spirit indeed.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 59,190
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Green_Planet_Energy

    LOL - selling Russian gas with a touch of hydrogen. Marketed as “Green Fuel”


    As a founding member of the association, Greenpeace e.V. holds only five shares at €55 in the cooperative, otherwise the environmental group and the company are financially and legally independent, although they share the same office building in Hamburg.[2] The former use of the Greenpeace name was licensed under the condition that the energy cooperative met the Greenpeace e.V. quality criteria for "clean energy".


    An interesting layered structure, as we say in banking.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 59,190

    ydoethur said:

    What sort of absolute tosser would do this?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c62nnpez1l4o

    “Some men just want to see the world burn” - various edgelord types take this to mean a kind of cool, total anarchy.

    The reality is tosspots who can’t see a window without wanting to smash it.
    I can see the perpetrators discovering what community spirit means. And it will be a very mean spirit indeed.
    Heart warming you mean.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 59,190
    kjh said:

    Interesting thread on London clubs yesterday.

    I was quite surprised by those who are members or interested in London Clubs. I don't know a soul who is a member of a London Club and it wouldn't cross my mind to join one. The only clubs I have joined are ones where it has a purpose eg Squash, Sailing, etc. Not sure I get it and I certainly wouldn't join one where you are vetted to get in or need to be proposed. That all sounds a bit snobbish to me.

    Clubs come in all sizes.

    I joined the Phoenix Theatre Club when it was a pub in a basement with 1am last orders and it cost a few pounds a year - great for a drink or 2 after the play/film. Haven’t been back in years - since the owner keeled over in Le Beaujolais* on Lichfield Street.

    I joined Home House at the start. It cost me about the same a gym membership - and had a gym. The place was full of interesting people, the interior is one of the few places where you can see Robert Adams work as a coherent set of rooms. Sadly, they got bought out, prices doubled and the worthwhile people moved on.

    *Le Beaujolais used to have a dining room downstairs for members. Not a posh place, but the food was very good. The cheese trolley was to die for…
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 26,164
    kjh said:

    Interesting thread on London clubs yesterday.

    I was quite surprised by those who are members or interested in London Clubs. I don't know a soul who is a member of a London Club and it wouldn't cross my mind to join one. The only clubs I have joined are ones where it has a purpose eg Squash, Sailing, etc. Not sure I get it and I certainly wouldn't join one where you are vetted to get in or need to be proposed. That all sounds a bit snobbish to me.

    I wonder what the correlation is between those and people who boarded at school, suspect pretty high, and with very low state school involvement.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 47,016

    kjh said:

    Interesting thread on London clubs yesterday.

    I was quite surprised by those who are members or interested in London Clubs. I don't know a soul who is a member of a London Club and it wouldn't cross my mind to join one. The only clubs I have joined are ones where it has a purpose eg Squash, Sailing, etc. Not sure I get it and I certainly wouldn't join one where you are vetted to get in or need to be proposed. That all sounds a bit snobbish to me.

    I wonder what the correlation is between those and people who boarded at school, suspect pretty high, and with very low state school involvement.
    Also with the menu having spotted dick and custard (albeit served with Beaumes de Venise ... yum).
  • OT - Do you just sign up to be a Reform member? Frankly if that is still true I'm amazed their numbers aren't very much higher!
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 54,371

    Eugh, I see that "Tommy Robinson" is trying to ruin Christmas Carols. Just no.

    The bad kind of muppet. Christmas Carol
    I went out with a Christmas Carol once. Well, she was called Carol because she was born on Christmas Eve. We used to say she was lucky not to be called Tree, or Present.
    I dated a Holly once, also born at Christmas.

    But my favourite was a very pukka retired RAF fighter pilot named Valentine, born 14th Feb. A certain nominitative determinism there I think.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 84,413

    kjh said:

    Interesting thread on London clubs yesterday.

    I was quite surprised by those who are members or interested in London Clubs. I don't know a soul who is a member of a London Club and it wouldn't cross my mind to join one. The only clubs I have joined are ones where it has a purpose eg Squash, Sailing, etc. Not sure I get it and I certainly wouldn't join one where you are vetted to get in or need to be proposed. That all sounds a bit snobbish to me.

    Clubs come in all sizes.

    I joined the Phoenix Theatre Club when it was a pub in a basement with 1am last orders and it cost a few pounds a year - great for a drink or 2 after the play/film. Haven’t been back in years - since the owner keeled over in Le Beaujolais* on Lichfield Street.

    I joined Home House at the start. It cost me about the same a gym membership - and had a gym. The place was full of interesting people, the interior is one of the few places where you can see Robert Adams work as a coherent set of rooms. Sadly, they got bought out, prices doubled and the worthwhile people moved on.

    *Le Beaujolais used to have a dining room downstairs for members. Not a posh place, but the food was very good. The cheese trolley was to die for…
    Was that intentional ?
  • AugustusCarp2AugustusCarp2 Posts: 512
    Sorry I missed the conversation on Clubs yesterday. Not sure if it was mentioned, but there is an excellent book on the subject - "Behind Closed Doors" by Seth Thevoz. It's a very good social history of the phenomena of clubs and their memberships. He points out that all clubs start because they think that their needs are not being catrered for elsewhere - so they always start off as radical, thrusting and dynamic. Historically (and even today) their food tends to be better than in restaurants, and cheaper, as is the booze. They are counter-cyclical in economic terms - they do better in recessions (because of the costs) but less well in boom times when conspicuous consumption is more evident. In Thevos's view, the idea of the crusty reactionary club, with like-minded members, only arose in the 1950s, when social life changed, commuting became more widespread, and inflation dissuaded new members from joining.

    He also makes a strong distinction between proprietary clubs (Groucho, SohoHouse etc) and member-owned clubs (Garrick, Reform, Travellers etc). The former are really just a specific manifestation of the hospitality industry, with profits going to proprietors (such as the Carings) rather than being used to defray costs for the membership.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 59,190
    dixiedean said:

    Oh for a world in which Jimmy Savile could volunteer in a morgue and Ian Huntley be a school caretaker.

    A problem is the lack of acknowledgment that a good thing - some kind of check of those working with the vulnerable - can have negative effects.

    See the ending of the old asylums and the concomitant rise in people visibly* sleeping on the streets.

    *in the Goode Olde Dayz, anyone sleeping rough in a visible location would be “moved on” by the police. “Moved on” could vary from willing movement to requiring hospital treatment for physical injury. Depending on the mood of the policeman.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 26,164
    The long awaited Epstein files show that 3 people we already knew to be associates of Epstein were indeed associates of Epstein shocker.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 84,413
    Cicero said:

    FWIW. Growing rumours of two heavy defeats for Russian forces. It seems that Pokrovsk has ended up becoming a massacre of Russian forces on a scale well into the thousands. In Kupiansk, claims of Russian advances saw instead a visit of President Zelensky to places Putin claimed were under Russian control

    The infinitesimally slow Russian advance has become a bloodbath for the attacking forces.

    The seizure of frozen Russian assets is on track and British bolstering of the coalition of the willing seems to be working as wavering countries are presented with the detailed British view of the current situation.

    A far better week for Ukraine. Especially as there is growing uproar in the US Congress about Trump's pro Russian strategy.

    Interesting thread, if it's true.

    https://x.com/SanderRegter/status/1999562032157209015
    Mirnograd
    Ukraine waited until enemy troops entered the city, then the F-16s unleashed hell. In a matter of hours, Mirnograd changed from a weak point on the front line to Ukraine's most carefully planned trap...


    FWIW. Dura seems to have been wrong, way back when, with doubts about the utility of F-16s.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 56,862
    Andy_JS said:
    Mary Poppins was the first film I ever saw as a kid. Even aged 5, I had doubts about his Cock-er-nee accent!
  • boulayboulay Posts: 7,923
    Andy_JS said:
    Hope he’s celebrating with some jellied eels, mash and liquor with a sing song with Chas and Dave.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 56,862
    Cicero said:

    FWIW. Growing rumours of two heavy defeats for Russian forces. It seems that Pokrovsk has ended up becoming a massacre of Russian forces on a scale well into the thousands. In Kupiansk, claims of Russian advances saw instead a visit of President Zelensky to places Putin claimed were under Russian control

    The infinitesimally slow Russian advance has become a bloodbath for the attacking forces.

    The seizure of frozen Russian assets is on track and British bolstering of the coalition of the willing seems to be working as wavering countries are presented with the detailed British view of the current situation.

    A far better week for Ukraine. Especially as there is growing uproar in the US Congress about Trump's pro Russian strategy.

    Thanksgiving came and went without an imposed Trump "settlement" (aka capitulation). His next self-imposed deadline is Christmas. Let's see,

    Standing by his war-criminal Hegseth has surely blown his chances of the Peace Prize, so I expect he will get bored and move on to his next crypto scam instead.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 59,190
    Nigelb said:

    kjh said:

    Interesting thread on London clubs yesterday.

    I was quite surprised by those who are members or interested in London Clubs. I don't know a soul who is a member of a London Club and it wouldn't cross my mind to join one. The only clubs I have joined are ones where it has a purpose eg Squash, Sailing, etc. Not sure I get it and I certainly wouldn't join one where you are vetted to get in or need to be proposed. That all sounds a bit snobbish to me.

    Clubs come in all sizes.

    I joined the Phoenix Theatre Club when it was a pub in a basement with 1am last orders and it cost a few pounds a year - great for a drink or 2 after the play/film. Haven’t been back in years - since the owner keeled over in Le Beaujolais* on Lichfield Street.

    I joined Home House at the start. It cost me about the same a gym membership - and had a gym. The place was full of interesting people, the interior is one of the few places where you can see Robert Adams work as a coherent set of rooms. Sadly, they got bought out, prices doubled and the worthwhile people moved on.

    *Le Beaujolais used to have a dining room downstairs for members. Not a posh place, but the food was very good. The cheese trolley was to die for…
    Was that intentional ?
    Ha! no

    Poor old John fell off his stool (reserved for him as a regular) at Le B. Was a great place, faded a bit, but still going. But living in a bar has an inevitable result.

    The cheese trolley was about 50 cheeses - including a Corsican cheese that was kept submerged in olive oil. Exposing it to the atmosphere was a Class A warcrime under the Chemical Weapons treaties.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 56,862
    boulay said:

    Andy_JS said:
    Hope he’s celebrating with some jellied eels, mash and liquor with a sing song with Chas and Dave.
    Shirley, celebrating with rabbit, rabbit...?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 59,190
    Nigelb said:

    Cicero said:

    FWIW. Growing rumours of two heavy defeats for Russian forces. It seems that Pokrovsk has ended up becoming a massacre of Russian forces on a scale well into the thousands. In Kupiansk, claims of Russian advances saw instead a visit of President Zelensky to places Putin claimed were under Russian control

    The infinitesimally slow Russian advance has become a bloodbath for the attacking forces.

    The seizure of frozen Russian assets is on track and British bolstering of the coalition of the willing seems to be working as wavering countries are presented with the detailed British view of the current situation.

    A far better week for Ukraine. Especially as there is growing uproar in the US Congress about Trump's pro Russian strategy.

    Interesting thread, if it's true.

    https://x.com/SanderRegter/status/1999562032157209015
    Mirnograd
    Ukraine waited until enemy troops entered the city, then the F-16s unleashed hell. In a matter of hours, Mirnograd changed from a weak point on the front line to Ukraine's most carefully planned trap...


    FWIW. Dura seems to have been wrong, way back when, with doubts about the utility of F-16s.
    Years back, Ed Rasmius (Vietnam era pilot) described how, when the very first F16s showed up, they were a revelation in ground attack, in exercise in the US.

    Without any smart bomb stuff, he and his contemporaries found them could lob a dumb bomb, using the digital targeting computer and reliably hit targets from miles away, without flying over the target. They would attack at low level, pull up to lob the bomb, and instantly duck back down to the ground.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 68,498
    Nigelb said:

    Cicero said:

    FWIW. Growing rumours of two heavy defeats for Russian forces. It seems that Pokrovsk has ended up becoming a massacre of Russian forces on a scale well into the thousands. In Kupiansk, claims of Russian advances saw instead a visit of President Zelensky to places Putin claimed were under Russian control

    The infinitesimally slow Russian advance has become a bloodbath for the attacking forces.

    The seizure of frozen Russian assets is on track and British bolstering of the coalition of the willing seems to be working as wavering countries are presented with the detailed British view of the current situation.

    A far better week for Ukraine. Especially as there is growing uproar in the US Congress about Trump's pro Russian strategy.

    Interesting thread, if it's true.

    https://x.com/SanderRegter/status/1999562032157209015
    Mirnograd
    Ukraine waited until enemy troops entered the city, then the F-16s unleashed hell. In a matter of hours, Mirnograd changed from a weak point on the front line to Ukraine's most carefully planned trap...


    FWIW. Dura seems to have been wrong, way back when, with doubts about the utility of F-16s.
    Good for Ukraine and may it continue

    However not sure it is going to be straightforward to use Russian assets as explained by the BBC

    BBC News - Belgium urges Europe to drop plan for frozen Russian assets to aid Ukraine
    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cz7n95wzl9lo
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 48,373
    edited 12:25PM

    The long awaited Epstein files show that 3 people we already knew to be associates of Epstein were indeed associates of Epstein shocker.

    The Epstein saga is running out of interest for me. Sleazebag scene involving rich and powerful men not some organised conspiracy of paedophiles. He likely wasn't murdered. He likely did commit suicide. Why wouldn't he. Life as he believed it should be lived was over.

    And (sadly) there's nothing in all this to bring Donald Trump down. It looks like he did sever contact when he said he did. We know he's a bone deep misogynist with zero respect for women. More to the point the American electorate knew that (or should have done) when they voted him into the WH, not once but twice.

    People should be prosecuted for any crimes committed if there's enough evidence. The men involved in the exploitation whether criminal or not should be named and shamed. Thus far there's been more progress on the second of these than the first.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 56,862
    Russia lost just 2 tanks, 6 infantry fighting vehicles - and 1,400 troops in Ukraine yesterday. Pure meat waves unsupported by any armour.

    And all that slaughter to lose ground in both Pokrovsk and Kupyansk. Merry Christmas, Putin.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 17,497
    boulay said:

    Andy_JS said:
    Hope he’s celebrating with some jellied eels, mash and liquor with a sing song with Chas and Dave.
    Chas sadly no longer with us.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 18,645

    Nigelb said:

    Cicero said:

    FWIW. Growing rumours of two heavy defeats for Russian forces. It seems that Pokrovsk has ended up becoming a massacre of Russian forces on a scale well into the thousands. In Kupiansk, claims of Russian advances saw instead a visit of President Zelensky to places Putin claimed were under Russian control

    The infinitesimally slow Russian advance has become a bloodbath for the attacking forces.

    The seizure of frozen Russian assets is on track and British bolstering of the coalition of the willing seems to be working as wavering countries are presented with the detailed British view of the current situation.

    A far better week for Ukraine. Especially as there is growing uproar in the US Congress about Trump's pro Russian strategy.

    Interesting thread, if it's true.

    https://x.com/SanderRegter/status/1999562032157209015
    Mirnograd
    Ukraine waited until enemy troops entered the city, then the F-16s unleashed hell. In a matter of hours, Mirnograd changed from a weak point on the front line to Ukraine's most carefully planned trap...


    FWIW. Dura seems to have been wrong, way back when, with doubts about the utility of F-16s.
    Good for Ukraine and may it continue

    However not sure it is going to be straightforward to use Russian assets as explained by the BBC

    BBC News - Belgium urges Europe to drop plan for frozen Russian assets to aid Ukraine
    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cz7n95wzl9lo
    The Belgian Prime Minister, who is from the Flemish Blok, is a populist of the Fico ilk. He needs to be a bit careful. Belgium has legitimate concerns about liabilities for the Russian assets but if he actually sabotages the loan to Ukraine other countries will find a way to cut him out of the arrangement.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 17,510

    Brexit could well be an issue but a bigger one may simply be economic reality. Back in 2004 the UK looked much more prosperous than Poland. Now? Not so much. That's certainly the feeling I got from speaking to a Pole last year.

    What would be interesting is some kind of comparison with other European countries Poles have migrated to such as France and Germany.

    I wonder what the factors are in Poland’s high growth? Perhaps it’s to do with greater economic integration with their neighbours through some sort of free trade area.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 48,373
    boulay said:

    Andy_JS said:
    Hope he’s celebrating with some jellied eels, mash and liquor with a sing song with Chas and Dave.
    He really nailed that cockney accent didn't he.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 7,985

    Brexit could well be an issue but a bigger one may simply be economic reality. Back in 2004 the UK looked much more prosperous than Poland. Now? Not so much. That's certainly the feeling I got from speaking to a Pole last year.

    What would be interesting is some kind of comparison with other European countries Poles have migrated to such as France and Germany.

    I wonder what the factors are in Poland’s high growth? Perhaps it’s to do with greater economic integration with their neighbours through some sort of free trade area.
    Grew pretty fast before joining too.


  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 17,510

    Eugh, I see that "Tommy Robinson" is trying to ruin Christmas Carols. Just no.

    From “O Holy Night”:

    Truly He taught us to love one another;
    His law is love and His gospel is peace.
    Chains shall He break, for the slave is our brother,
    and in His name all oppression shall cease.

    Don’t know that Tommy will be too keen on those words!
  • AugustusCarp2AugustusCarp2 Posts: 512
    kinabalu said:

    The long awaited Epstein files show that 3 people we already knew to be associates of Epstein were indeed associates of Epstein shocker.

    The Epstein saga is running out of interest for me. Sleazebag scene involving rich and powerful men not some organised conspiracy of paedophiles. He likely wasn't murdered. He likely did commit suicide. Why wouldn't he. Life as he believed it should be lived was over.

    And (sadly) there's nothing in all this to bring Donald Trump down. It looks like he did sever contact when he said he did. We know he's a bone deep misogynist with zero respect for women. More to the point the American electorate knew that (or should have done) when they voted him into the WH, not once but twice.

    People should be prosecuted for any crimes committed if there's enough evidence. The men involved in the exploitation whether criminal or not should be named and shamed. Thus far there's been more progress on the second of these than the first.
    Have you seen that video clip of Trump and Epstein talking together? It's frequently on the BBC News, and shows (without audio) Trump telling some gag to Epstein, who doubles up with laughter and turns around. If we get told nothing else, please can someone enlighten us about what was said? It's been bugging me for months now - surely Ayrshire's most famous hotelier doesn't have a cracking sens of humour?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 56,862
    kinabalu said:

    The long awaited Epstein files show that 3 people we already knew to be associates of Epstein were indeed associates of Epstein shocker.

    The Epstein saga is running out of interest for me. Sleazebag scene involving rich and powerful men not some organised conspiracy of paedophiles. He likely wasn't murdered. He likely did commit suicide. Why wouldn't he. Life as he believed it should be lived was over.

    And (sadly) there's nothing in all this to bring Donald Trump down. It looks like he did sever contact when he said he did. We know he's a bone deep misogynist with zero respect for women. More to the point the American electorate knew that (or should have done) when they voted him into the WH, not once but twice.

    People should be prosecuted for any crimes committed if there's enough evidence. The men involved in the exploitation whether criminal or not should be named and shamed. Thus far there's been more progress on the second of these than the first.
    Epstein is trundling along. Let's see what gets released. If the "good stuff" doesn't get released by the DofJ, there will be patriotic citizens employed there who will leak copies.

    Why would Trump destroy the DofJ if there was nothing to show?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 84,413
    Here's one for PB's ICE apologist to get their teeth into.

    Let's talk ONLY facts. Here are true statements only: Donna Hughes Brown is a legal resident of the United States of America. She came here legally almost 50 years ago and stayed here legally. She married a US Navy vet, and raised a son who became a United States Marine. Her brother was a Colonel in the US Army. This is a family that has given and given and given to the United States.

    ICE grabbed her at the O'hare airport in Chicago in July, sent her to a detention facility in Kentucky, a detention facility which has been widely criticized for unsanitary conditions and medical neglect of detainees, and she has been there ever since.

    The reason ICE gives? She wrote two bad checks by accident for a total of less than $80 over a decade ago. It was immediately caught, and she paid the difference in full. She's now looking at deportation.

    If you support this, and I want to be abundantly clear here, you are not a patriot, you're a poser. Meanwhile a man defrauded the American public by pretending to raise money for veterans and then used the donations to fund his campaign and pay off legal debts to the damages of $2million and we elected him to be our president...

    https://x.com/TheTrueVanguard/status/1999194391672750521
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 17,510

    Found this on another forum, US context but…

    “Before I retired we had two construction job openings at my company. We had 200 people put in for them. First was a drug test. That eliminated about half of the applicants. Next was a credit report. That eliminated some more. (We didn't want creditors dunning money and having us to take it out of their checks). Next was police record. More eliminated. Next was driving record, sense they would be driving company vehicles. We ended up with 5 people out of 200 to interview. The two we hired were college grads for construction jobs. 40 years ago, we could pick from a much larger group with only a high school degree.”

    Part of what’s going on there is around the credit report and the police record.

    They US has overzealous policing and the increasing criminalisation of behaviours. The proportion of Americans who have a police record has greatly increased. It’s now just under a third of adults: https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/analysis-opinion/just-facts-many-americans-have-criminal-records-college-diplomas

    Meanwhile, the number of people in debt has also increased significantly. One unlucky bout of ill health can leave the average American being pursued by creditors. Wealth inequality has increased.

    40 years ago, there were fewer Americans with a police record or bad credit report. Moreover, it was harder to check those things. So a company like this would not be filtering them out in the same way. Now, a bit of bad luck, a minor infringement with the law, those now follow you, you can’t get a job, you can’t improve your situation.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 6,733
    Nigelb said:

    Here's one for PB's ICE apologist to get their teeth into.

    Let's talk ONLY facts. Here are true statements only: Donna Hughes Brown is a legal resident of the United States of America. She came here legally almost 50 years ago and stayed here legally. She married a US Navy vet, and raised a son who became a United States Marine. Her brother was a Colonel in the US Army. This is a family that has given and given and given to the United States.

    ICE grabbed her at the O'hare airport in Chicago in July, sent her to a detention facility in Kentucky, a detention facility which has been widely criticized for unsanitary conditions and medical neglect of detainees, and she has been there ever since.

    The reason ICE gives? She wrote two bad checks by accident for a total of less than $80 over a decade ago. It was immediately caught, and she paid the difference in full. She's now looking at deportation.

    If you support this, and I want to be abundantly clear here, you are not a patriot, you're a poser. Meanwhile a man defrauded the American public by pretending to raise money for veterans and then used the donations to fund his campaign and pay off legal debts to the damages of $2million and we elected him to be our president...

    https://x.com/TheTrueVanguard/status/1999194391672750521

    They get off on the cruelty . The whole administration are psychopaths.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 48,373

    kinabalu said:

    The long awaited Epstein files show that 3 people we already knew to be associates of Epstein were indeed associates of Epstein shocker.

    The Epstein saga is running out of interest for me. Sleazebag scene involving rich and powerful men not some organised conspiracy of paedophiles. He likely wasn't murdered. He likely did commit suicide. Why wouldn't he. Life as he believed it should be lived was over.

    And (sadly) there's nothing in all this to bring Donald Trump down. It looks like he did sever contact when he said he did. We know he's a bone deep misogynist with zero respect for women. More to the point the American electorate knew that (or should have done) when they voted him into the WH, not once but twice.

    People should be prosecuted for any crimes committed if there's enough evidence. The men involved in the exploitation whether criminal or not should be named and shamed. Thus far there's been more progress on the second of these than the first.
    Have you seen that video clip of Trump and Epstein talking together? It's frequently on the BBC News, and shows (without audio) Trump telling some gag to Epstein, who doubles up with laughter and turns around. If we get told nothing else, please can someone enlighten us about what was said? It's been bugging me for months now - surely Ayrshire's most famous hotelier doesn't have a cracking sens of humour?
    Ha yes. Have I seen it? Only about 1000 times. And yes I'd love to know too. Is it, for example, and contrary to all expectations, a witty multilayered riff on the absurdity of their milieu and the brittle posturing of those who inhabit it?
  • MustaphaMondeoMustaphaMondeo Posts: 403

    Was on family taxi duties last night and the aurora was blazing! Wish I had remembered my tripod was in the car...


    Great colours.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 48,373
    edited 12:45PM

    kinabalu said:

    The long awaited Epstein files show that 3 people we already knew to be associates of Epstein were indeed associates of Epstein shocker.

    The Epstein saga is running out of interest for me. Sleazebag scene involving rich and powerful men not some organised conspiracy of paedophiles. He likely wasn't murdered. He likely did commit suicide. Why wouldn't he. Life as he believed it should be lived was over.

    And (sadly) there's nothing in all this to bring Donald Trump down. It looks like he did sever contact when he said he did. We know he's a bone deep misogynist with zero respect for women. More to the point the American electorate knew that (or should have done) when they voted him into the WH, not once but twice.

    People should be prosecuted for any crimes committed if there's enough evidence. The men involved in the exploitation whether criminal or not should be named and shamed. Thus far there's been more progress on the second of these than the first.
    Epstein is trundling along. Let's see what gets released. If the "good stuff" doesn't get released by the DofJ, there will be patriotic citizens employed there who will leak copies.

    Why would Trump destroy the DofJ if there was nothing to show?

    kinabalu said:

    The long awaited Epstein files show that 3 people we already knew to be associates of Epstein were indeed associates of Epstein shocker.

    The Epstein saga is running out of interest for me. Sleazebag scene involving rich and powerful men not some organised conspiracy of paedophiles. He likely wasn't murdered. He likely did commit suicide. Why wouldn't he. Life as he believed it should be lived was over.

    And (sadly) there's nothing in all this to bring Donald Trump down. It looks like he did sever contact when he said he did. We know he's a bone deep misogynist with zero respect for women. More to the point the American electorate knew that (or should have done) when they voted him into the WH, not once but twice.

    People should be prosecuted for any crimes committed if there's enough evidence. The men involved in the exploitation whether criminal or not should be named and shamed. Thus far there's been more progress on the second of these than the first.
    Sure. Let's see. But I recommend we don't get our hopes up regarding Trump damage.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 59,190

    Brexit could well be an issue but a bigger one may simply be economic reality. Back in 2004 the UK looked much more prosperous than Poland. Now? Not so much. That's certainly the feeling I got from speaking to a Pole last year.

    What would be interesting is some kind of comparison with other European countries Poles have migrated to such as France and Germany.

    I wonder what the factors are in Poland’s high growth? Perhaps it’s to do with greater economic integration with their neighbours through some sort of free trade area.
    They were quite poor, as a result of Communism combined with the COMECON (which was setup to drain money from the satellite states of the USSR)

    So they popped into the European scene with a well educated and skilled population, under employed, with very low cost of living and wages to match.

    This resulted in the kind of growth we saw previously from Japan and South Korea .

    Think of it is a deep hole, dug on the beach. When the tide comes in, the water will fill the hole very rapidly. Until it reaches the level of the rest of the beach.

    What we are seeing now, is that Poland is still cheaper than the UK. But the differential is approaching parity. The state of infrastructure etc has massively improved.

    So, if you have made your pile here, you can sell up a flat in London and build yourself a huge house back home in Poland, live like a king etc. But the hospitals now work and the roads are not made of holes, as they used to be.

    There is the additional element - if you are not especially fond of people with sun tans, then suburban Poland is very, very white.
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