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Too many tweets… – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,819
edited December 1 in General
Too many tweets… – politicalbetting.com

Three former Conservative MPs defect to Reform UKFormer deputy Tory chairman Jonathan Gullis praises Nigel Farage as he, Lia Nici and Chris Green quit Kemi Badenoch’s party https://t.co/2FwJKGaaUp

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Comments

  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 12,238
    First. Nobody joining the Whizzer and Chips as a staff journalist ever imagined that it'd lead to great things. It didn't. Much like Reform.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 26,947
    I thought they had already gone...
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 36,153
    Rats and ships, anyone?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 54,176
    Assets to any team surely.

    Indeed their only hope of making a Commons return, and indeed likely to the first Reform Cabinet. Its not as if theres stiff competition, so in the land of the blind the one-eyed man is king.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 58,966
    I'm appalled.

    That this wasn't in the header - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d3Mrfut-FSw
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 1,965
    That's one shallow barrel they're "creaming off".

    Clearly not got the message that the backers have decided that it's time to switch back from Farage.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,530
    Former neocon Republicans becoming Trump loyalists didn't do him any harm. Tories defecting to Farage just strengthens the impression that he's winning.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 33,375
    These are comparatively good signings for Reform and a good way to get back the initiative after fading away recently.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 41,145

    These are comparatively good signings for Reform and a good way to get back the initiative after fading away recently.

    More Tory retreads?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 57,031

    I'm appalled.

    That this wasn't in the header - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d3Mrfut-FSw

    Pine, pine. We so need a politician that can think.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 9,233

    These are comparatively good signings for Reform and a good way to get back the initiative after fading away recently.

    Seriously? Of all the idiots in the last parliament (on all sides), Jonathan Gullis reigned supreme.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 18,543
    To be fair these are particularly dismal Tories. They should fit right in with the Reform brand.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 12,238
    Daisy Cooper has weighed in I see.

    One day we'll be able to detect such minute perturbations without actually knowing they've happened - it's a dream, but it's far off. We can only detect actual proper thoughts happening now - micro thoughts and micro wibbles are still beyond the technology, despite as we've seen with Ms Cooper there's proof that they exist.
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 1,965
    edited December 1
    DavidL said:

    I'm appalled.

    That this wasn't in the header - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d3Mrfut-FSw

    Pine, pine. We so need a politician that can think.
    "Hi Dave, It's Lex. I've got this great business opportunity factoring invoices and turning them into an insurance-backed instrument that I sell to investment banks. I need someone with your gravitas onboard to reassure the underwriters..."
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 10,117
    How many more Tory defections until the LibDems become the Official Opposition?
  • This is Sky's Ed Conway explanation of the present row over Reeves and Starmer

    Were we all misled over the budget?

    https://news.sky.com/video/share-13478012
  • This is Sky's Ed Conway explanation of the present row over Reeves and Starmer

    Were we all misled over the budget?

    https://news.sky.com/video/share-13478012

    No.
    The video is 9 minutes

    Have you watched it?
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 25,974

    These are comparatively good signings for Reform and a good way to get back the initiative after fading away recently.

    Comparatively? To Lee Anderson? It's a low bar but fair enough.
  • Make sure you are not ill at Christmas

    Resident doctors to strike from 17th to 22nd December
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 6,692
    Farage should STFU!

    He disappeared for a few weeks . The spineless waste of space couldn’t bear the scrutiny because of Reforms Russia links and now comes back to jump on the bandwagon over the OBR .

    His demand for transparency over the budget is comedy gold given we’re still waiting to see how many more Putin stooges are in his party .
  • nico67 said:

    Farage should STFU!

    He disappeared for a few weeks . The spineless waste of space couldn’t bear the scrutiny because of Reforms Russia links and now comes back to jump on the bandwagon over the OBR .

    His demand for transparency over the budget is comedy gold given we’re still waiting to see how many more Putin stooges are in his party .

    I cannot stand the man but this is politics
  • CookieCookie Posts: 16,473

    nico67 said:

    Farage should STFU!

    He disappeared for a few weeks . The spineless waste of space couldn’t bear the scrutiny because of Reforms Russia links and now comes back to jump on the bandwagon over the OBR .

    His demand for transparency over the budget is comedy gold given we’re still waiting to see how many more Putin stooges are in his party .

    I cannot stand the man but this is politics
    While you're around Big G, I'm five months late to this but I notice a couple of Tory councillors in Llandudno defected to Reform - any local insight? Do you know these characters?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 46,825

    Make sure you are not ill at Christmas

    Resident doctors to strike from 17th to 22nd December

    In England, though. (Which is a lot of them, mind.)
  • Cookie said:

    nico67 said:

    Farage should STFU!

    He disappeared for a few weeks . The spineless waste of space couldn’t bear the scrutiny because of Reforms Russia links and now comes back to jump on the bandwagon over the OBR .

    His demand for transparency over the budget is comedy gold given we’re still waiting to see how many more Putin stooges are in his party .

    I cannot stand the man but this is politics
    While you're around Big G, I'm five months late to this but I notice a couple of Tory councillors in Llandudno defected to Reform - any local insight? Do you know these characters?
    No I dont, but I know our conservative councillor trounced the reform one in the most recent town election

    Maybe there are more sane conservatives in my ward !!!!
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 56,769

    This is Sky's Ed Conway explanation of the present row over Reeves and Starmer

    Were we all misled over the budget?

    https://news.sky.com/video/share-13478012

    Yes.
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 3,303

    These are comparatively good signings for Reform and a good way to get back the initiative after fading away recently.

    Really, they aren't.

    The only defection that will be regretted on a personal basis is Danny Kruger.

    These three, along with Andrea Jenkyns, Nadine Dorries, et al, look like members of a political version of the Addams Family.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 26,947
    edited December 1
    Dopermean said:

    DavidL said:

    I'm appalled.

    That this wasn't in the header - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d3Mrfut-FSw

    Pine, pine. We so need a politician that can think.
    "Hi Dave, It's Lex. I've got this great business opportunity factoring invoices and turning them into an insurance-backed instrument that I sell to investment banks. I need someone with your gravitas onboard to reassure the underwriters..."
    Bing and Google come up short. Is it "The Big Short"? It sounds like something Ryan Gosling would say, just before the "ripped to the tits" line.

    Pause

    Unless it's "Superman", of course :(

    (It's not "Margin Call", 'cos I know most of that off by heart)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,762

    These are comparatively good signings for Reform and a good way to get back the initiative after fading away recently.

    Really, they aren't.

    The only defection that will be regretted on a personal basis is Danny Kruger.

    These three, along with Andrea Jenkyns, Nadine Dorries, et al, look like members of a political version of the Addams Family.
    It's still significant that MPs and ex-MPs are continuing to sign up. The Tories cannot bleed away continually, even if it starts with troublemakers. Bearing in mind that even with people jumping ship plenty of Tories not jumping ship want to do a deal/be more like Reform - so encouraging still more to jump.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 33,375

    These are comparatively good signings for Reform and a good way to get back the initiative after fading away recently.

    Seriously? Of all the idiots in the last parliament (on all sides), Jonathan Gullis reigned supreme.
    Hence I say comparatively. These are experienced MPs, and that's not to be sniffed at.

    To answer Scott's comment above, you aren't going to get the same pool of former MPs who didn't get in last time but want their seats back with Labour. Most Labour candidates with a hope in hell got in last time.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 58,966
    viewcode said:

    Dopermean said:

    DavidL said:

    I'm appalled.

    That this wasn't in the header - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d3Mrfut-FSw

    Pine, pine. We so need a politician that can think.
    "Hi Dave, It's Lex. I've got this great business opportunity factoring invoices and turning them into an insurance-backed instrument that I sell to investment banks. I need someone with your gravitas onboard to reassure the underwriters..."
    Bing and Google come up short. Is it "The Big Short"? It sounds like something Ryan Gosling would say, just before the "ripped to the tits" line.

    Pause

    Unless it's "Superman", of course :(

    (It's not "Margin Call", 'cos I know most of that off by heart)

    Please, speak as you might to a young child, or a Golden Retriever. It wasn’t brains that got me here, I can assure you that.
  • isamisam Posts: 43,147
    John Rentoul’s View From Westminster email

    Keir Starmer fights for his political life

    The prime minister’s speech this morning was not just a bid to talk up the Budget, as David Maddox, our political editor, writes. “It was a fight for his political life.”

    Keir Starmer’s claim that lifting the two-child benefit limit had always been his “moral mission” is different from what he argued last year, when it was “unaffordable”.

    It has not become more affordable, as the Office for Budget Responsibility has said that the public finances had deteriorated, whatever the debate about when it said it.

    The prime minister and the chancellor decided to raise taxes to spend more, but this means trying to tell Labour MPs (who support the end of the two-child cap) one thing and the wider electorate (who oppose it) something else.

    But if the voters – and at least one cabinet minister – think the prime minister is misleading them, then appeasing backbench Labour MPs will not save him
    .
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,762
    Can't say I expected to agree with Adnan Hussain MP much before.

    Can't think of a better gift to Reform than calling for Communism/Marxism.

    All hopes of a mass, all-encompassing movement burnt to the ground, just to create another fringe, factional, echo chamber, of which this country already has many.

    https://nitter.poast.org/AdnanHussainMP/status/1995146434598109346#m
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,762
    nico67 said:

    Farage should STFU!

    He disappeared for a few weeks . The spineless waste of space couldn’t bear the scrutiny because of Reforms Russia links and now comes back to jump on the bandwagon over the OBR .

    His demand for transparency over the budget is comedy gold given we’re still waiting to see how many more Putin stooges are in his party .

    He's often been fairly smart about when it is time to lay low, whereas many would be imitators probably are terrified of not getting attention all the time.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 26,947
    edited December 1
    kle4 said:

    Can't say I expected to agree with Adnan Hussain MP much before.

    Can't think of a better gift to Reform than calling for Communism/Marxism.

    All hopes of a mass, all-encompassing movement burnt to the ground, just to create another fringe, factional, echo chamber, of which this country already has many.

    https://nitter.poast.org/AdnanHussainMP/status/1995146434598109346#m

    (narrator: if it allows people to own property and goods in their own right and buy/sell them freely with willing buyers/sellers, then it isn't communism)
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,881
    kle4 said:

    Can't say I expected to agree with Adnan Hussain MP much before.

    Can't think of a better gift to Reform than calling for Communism/Marxism.

    All hopes of a mass, all-encompassing movement burnt to the ground, just to create another fringe, factional, echo chamber, of which this country already has many.

    https://nitter.poast.org/AdnanHussainMP/status/1995146434598109346#m

    Glorious, isn’t it?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 21,620

    First thought - I had never heard of any of these people before today.
    Second thought - Richard Tice's tweet to Gullis has a pretty nasty threatening tone to it. They're just not very nice people.

    Tice is and always has been a piece of work.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 131,876
    One major impact with defections is defectors go from being political enemies to being principled heroes who have seen the light on how brilliant your party is. The same goes for Reform in their treatment of the 3 Tory ex MP defectors today
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 131,876
    edited December 1
    Note not one of the 3 ex Tory MPs went to Oxbridge or studied PPE or was a SPAD and only 1, Gullis went to private school (still only a minor not major public school). So while Kemi will brush their defections off she will be a bit concerned at losing 3 former MPs from her party with broader life experience than many on the Conservative benches in Parliament and candidates' list
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 26,947
    edited December 1

    viewcode said:

    Dopermean said:

    DavidL said:

    I'm appalled.

    That this wasn't in the header - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d3Mrfut-FSw

    Pine, pine. We so need a politician that can think.
    "Hi Dave, It's Lex. I've got this great business opportunity factoring invoices and turning them into an insurance-backed instrument that I sell to investment banks. I need someone with your gravitas onboard to reassure the underwriters..."
    Bing and Google come up short. Is it "The Big Short"? It sounds like something Ryan Gosling would say, just before the "ripped to the tits" line.

    Pause

    Unless it's "Superman", of course :(

    (It's not "Margin Call", 'cos I know most of that off by heart)

    Please, speak as you might to a young child, or a Golden Retriever. It wasn’t brains that got me here, I can assure you that.
    "...Carmello, get me Eric Dale here by six-thirty. It's done..."

    It's one of the weirdest films ever. It consists of people reciting numbers to each other, mostly their salaries, but the crucial numbers - the values of the assets - are left vague, described only in superlatives - "we're going to be left holding the biggest bag of odorous excrement ever assembled in the history of (pause) capitalism". Everything about it is brilliant - check out the colour grading - and I really like the rumour that Kevin Spacey burying his dog in the end of the film is reflected in the first scene of "House of Cards", when the other Kevin Spacey character kills his dog.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 57,031

    As a conservative I have no issue with ex conservatives defecting to Reform and by default accepting Farage's far right policies

    Even if I am the last conservative standing, I will not vote for Reform or Labour

    And on standing, I have finally been awarded a blue badge today that will help in my battle against my recent loss of mobility

    Surely its a blue plaque for your contributions to PB?
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,885
    My, the 1845 Met Office radar shows one of the finest organised narrow band of rain I've seen, starting out NE of Leeds and continuing, with a few small discontinuities, all the way to northern Brittany.

    I'm in a car park sheltering from it, though it has slid east of me a bit, but it's over Lichfield, Birmingham, mid Wiltshire, so a select few of us are dead on underneath it.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 48,250
    FF43 said:

    To be fair these are particularly dismal Tories. They should fit right in with the Reform brand.

    They're all gamey. Bit of a whiff.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 131,876
    Roger said:

    First thought - I had never heard of any of these people before today.
    Second thought - Richard Tice's tweet to Gullis has a pretty nasty threatening tone to it. They're just not very nice people.

    Tice is and always has been a piece of work.
    He is rich though, net worth £40 million and a former party leader so Farage has to give him a big role
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 3,303
    HYUFD said:

    One major impact with defections is defectors go from being political enemies to being principled heroes who have seen the light on how brilliant your party is. The same goes for Reform in their treatment of the 3 Tory ex MP defectors today

    One of the ironies of the Tory/Reform switchers is that the very people who have laid the Tories low - those who indulged Boris, and then gave us Truss - are the very same people clambering aboard the Reform ship. Leaving the more sensible Tories who have remained, blinking in the twilight and hoping that there might be an outbreak of commonsense sometime soon.

    Thoughts on Kemi. What she has proven is that she is not an IDS-type dud. She does possess something a bit special, but remains some considerable distance from being perceived by the public as a credible alternative PM. This is why I favoured Cleverly. But she has stifled Jenrick, so that's something and seems to be getting the hang of it, a bit. All the same, there is no movement in the polls and next May still looks grim. So, the long run it is.

    For May, I think the Conservatives will need to learn from Kenneth Baker who, back in the day, managed to persuade the media to focus on the results in Westminster and Wandsworth, and overlook what was happening everywhere else.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 58,966
    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    Dopermean said:

    DavidL said:

    I'm appalled.

    That this wasn't in the header - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d3Mrfut-FSw

    Pine, pine. We so need a politician that can think.
    "Hi Dave, It's Lex. I've got this great business opportunity factoring invoices and turning them into an insurance-backed instrument that I sell to investment banks. I need someone with your gravitas onboard to reassure the underwriters..."
    Bing and Google come up short. Is it "The Big Short"? It sounds like something Ryan Gosling would say, just before the "ripped to the tits" line.

    Pause

    Unless it's "Superman", of course :(

    (It's not "Margin Call", 'cos I know most of that off by heart)

    Please, speak as you might to a young child, or a Golden Retriever. It wasn’t brains that got me here, I can assure you that.
    "...Carmello, get me Eric Dale here by six-thirty. It's done..."

    It's one of the weirdest films ever. It consists of people reciting numbers to each other, mostly their salaries, but the crucial numbers - the values of the assets - are left vague, described only in superlatives - "we're going to be left holding the biggest bag of odorous excrement ever assembled in the history of (pause) capitalism". Everything about it is brilliant - check out the colour grading - and I really like the rumour that Kevin Spacey burying his dog in the end of the film is reflected in the first scene of "House of Cards", when the other Kevin Spacey character kills his dog.
    The portrayal of a bank CEO was spot on - instead of the Hollywood how-do-we-ignore-this-and-cover-it-up-so-we-all-go-to-jail-in-the-last-five-minutes, he goes straight for the win.
  • DavidL said:

    As a conservative I have no issue with ex conservatives defecting to Reform and by default accepting Farage's far right policies

    Even if I am the last conservative standing, I will not vote for Reform or Labour

    And on standing, I have finally been awarded a blue badge today that will help in my battle against my recent loss of mobility

    Surely its a blue plaque for your contributions to PB?
    Though I am still alive !!!!
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 25,974
    In post office news, the police have so far spent £10m and conducted five interviews under caution. Head hurting to know to where to start on this one.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 4,310
    Farage as PM is becoming a bit like the European Super League; it's a shite idea but until it's actually done and proven to be shite it's always going to be an idea lots of folk are pushing hard for.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 131,876
    edited December 1

    HYUFD said:

    One major impact with defections is defectors go from being political enemies to being principled heroes who have seen the light on how brilliant your party is. The same goes for Reform in their treatment of the 3 Tory ex MP defectors today

    One of the ironies of the Tory/Reform switchers is that the very people who have laid the Tories low - those who indulged Boris, and then gave us Truss - are the very same people clambering aboard the Reform ship. Leaving the more sensible Tories who have remained, blinking in the twilight and hoping that there might be an outbreak of commonsense sometime soon.

    Thoughts on Kemi. What she has proven is that she is not an IDS-type dud. She does possess something a bit special, but remains some considerable distance from being perceived by the public as a credible alternative PM. This is why I favoured Cleverly. But she has stifled Jenrick, so that's something and seems to be getting the hang of it, a bit. All the same, there is no movement in the polls and next May still looks grim. So, the long run it is.

    For May, I think the Conservatives will need to learn from Kenneth Baker who, back in the day, managed to persuade the media to focus on the results in Westminster and Wandsworth, and overlook what was happening everywhere else.
    Yes, about 40% of the 2019 Conservative vote has gone Reform, another 40% has stayed Tory and the remaining 20% has gone Labour or LD.
    Of the Conservatives who have gone Reform, from the likes of Dorries, Kruger and Gullis down they are all from the Boris loyalist wing which switched to backing Truss in 2022 v Sunak and backed Jenrick over Kemi last year. Ironically that may sure up Kemi's position and increase Cleverly or Stride's chances too as the more Jenrick backers go Reform, the harder it will be for Jenrick to replace Kemi as Tory leader before the next general election.

    You are also right, while the Tories will likely suffer losses overall in the local and devolved elections next May, they could gain Westminster and Barnet and should hold Kensington and Chelsea which Kemi and her backers would highlight
  • stodgestodge Posts: 15,647
    HYUFD said:

    One major impact with defections is defectors go from being political enemies to being principled heroes who have seen the light on how brilliant your party is. The same goes for Reform in their treatment of the 3 Tory ex MP defectors today

    You and I both know that's how politics has always worked. There's no one more welcome than the convert and arguably no one less trusted.
  • HYUFD said:

    Roger said:

    First thought - I had never heard of any of these people before today.
    Second thought - Richard Tice's tweet to Gullis has a pretty nasty threatening tone to it. They're just not very nice people.

    Tice is and always has been a piece of work.
    He is rich though, net worth £40 million and a former party leader so Farage has to give him a big role
    Since when does wealth matter more than integrity?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 58,966

    In post office news, the police have so far spent £10m and conducted five interviews under caution. Head hurting to know to where to start on this one.

    Prediction - "It turned out that there 146 senior people potentially chargeable in matters arising from the Post Office. 3 are dead. 112 have taken early retirement. The rest have been diagnosed with stress and are in the luxury sections of various in-patient facilities paid for from their Post Office packages. So it would not be in the interests of justice to pursue them further. We have charged the lady who cleans on Thursdays with misconduct in a public office."
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 20,859

    HYUFD said:

    Roger said:

    First thought - I had never heard of any of these people before today.
    Second thought - Richard Tice's tweet to Gullis has a pretty nasty threatening tone to it. They're just not very nice people.

    Tice is and always has been a piece of work.
    He is rich though, net worth £40 million and a former party leader so Farage has to give him a big role
    Since when does wealth matter more than integrity?
    The latter half of the 1980s, I'm sad to say.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 58,966
    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    One major impact with defections is defectors go from being political enemies to being principled heroes who have seen the light on how brilliant your party is. The same goes for Reform in their treatment of the 3 Tory ex MP defectors today

    You and I both know that's how politics has always worked. There's no one more welcome than the convert and arguably no one less trusted.
    Which is why Western converts to ISIS often got a rapid promotion to the Spontaneously Self Combusting Hero business unit.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 58,966

    HYUFD said:

    Roger said:

    First thought - I had never heard of any of these people before today.
    Second thought - Richard Tice's tweet to Gullis has a pretty nasty threatening tone to it. They're just not very nice people.

    Tice is and always has been a piece of work.
    He is rich though, net worth £40 million and a former party leader so Farage has to give him a big role
    Since when does wealth matter more than integrity?
    The latter half of the 1980s, I'm sad to say.
    Wrong. Probably before the invention of currency.
  • HYUFD said:

    Roger said:

    First thought - I had never heard of any of these people before today.
    Second thought - Richard Tice's tweet to Gullis has a pretty nasty threatening tone to it. They're just not very nice people.

    Tice is and always has been a piece of work.
    He is rich though, net worth £40 million and a former party leader so Farage has to give him a big role
    Since when does wealth matter more than integrity?
    You need to understand that Reform is more of a billboard than a political party.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 54,176
    Carnyx said:

    Make sure you are not ill at Christmas

    Resident doctors to strike from 17th to 22nd December

    In England, though. (Which is a lot of them, mind.)
    Pretty poor turnout last one, indeed in my department we barely noticed.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 131,876

    HYUFD said:

    Roger said:

    First thought - I had never heard of any of these people before today.
    Second thought - Richard Tice's tweet to Gullis has a pretty nasty threatening tone to it. They're just not very nice people.

    Tice is and always has been a piece of work.
    He is rich though, net worth £40 million and a former party leader so Farage has to give him a big role
    Since when does wealth matter more than integrity?
    Reform full of MPs and parliamentary candidates with integrity of course, Tice though will say he has integrity plus £40 million to help the party unlike almost all the rest of them
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 26,947

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    Dopermean said:

    DavidL said:

    I'm appalled.

    That this wasn't in the header - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d3Mrfut-FSw

    Pine, pine. We so need a politician that can think.
    "Hi Dave, It's Lex. I've got this great business opportunity factoring invoices and turning them into an insurance-backed instrument that I sell to investment banks. I need someone with your gravitas onboard to reassure the underwriters..."
    Bing and Google come up short. Is it "The Big Short"? It sounds like something Ryan Gosling would say, just before the "ripped to the tits" line.

    Pause

    Unless it's "Superman", of course :(

    (It's not "Margin Call", 'cos I know most of that off by heart)

    Please, speak as you might to a young child, or a Golden Retriever. It wasn’t brains that got me here, I can assure you that.
    "...Carmello, get me Eric Dale here by six-thirty. It's done..."

    It's one of the weirdest films ever. It consists of people reciting numbers to each other, mostly their salaries, but the crucial numbers - the values of the assets - are left vague, described only in superlatives - "we're going to be left holding the biggest bag of odorous excrement ever assembled in the history of (pause) capitalism". Everything about it is brilliant - check out the colour grading - and I really like the rumour that Kevin Spacey burying his dog in the end of the film is reflected in the first scene of "House of Cards", when the other Kevin Spacey character kills his dog.
    The portrayal of a bank CEO was spot on - instead of the Hollywood how-do-we-ignore-this-and-cover-it-up-so-we-all-go-to-jail-in-the-last-five-minutes, he goes straight for the win.
    Indeed. I'm looking at the clips again for the "nth" time and I *think* Jeremy Irons is the only character with a red tie. He does have an absolute stormer of a speech and he eats the words, desk, and possibly downtown Manhattan as he does so: he's having a whale of a time, and so am I. He's basically Scar on two legs. "So. That WE. MAY SURRRVIVE"

    :):):)
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 54,176

    HYUFD said:

    Roger said:

    First thought - I had never heard of any of these people before today.
    Second thought - Richard Tice's tweet to Gullis has a pretty nasty threatening tone to it. They're just not very nice people.

    Tice is and always has been a piece of work.
    He is rich though, net worth £40 million and a former party leader so Farage has to give him a big role
    Since when does wealth matter more than integrity?
    Since the dawn of civilisation.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 131,876
    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Roger said:

    First thought - I had never heard of any of these people before today.
    Second thought - Richard Tice's tweet to Gullis has a pretty nasty threatening tone to it. They're just not very nice people.

    Tice is and always has been a piece of work.
    He is rich though, net worth £40 million and a former party leader so Farage has to give him a big role
    Since when does wealth matter more than integrity?
    Since the dawn of civilisation.
    Not for Christ who set the ideal but humans are flawed he isn't
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 33,375
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    One major impact with defections is defectors go from being political enemies to being principled heroes who have seen the light on how brilliant your party is. The same goes for Reform in their treatment of the 3 Tory ex MP defectors today

    One of the ironies of the Tory/Reform switchers is that the very people who have laid the Tories low - those who indulged Boris, and then gave us Truss - are the very same people clambering aboard the Reform ship. Leaving the more sensible Tories who have remained, blinking in the twilight and hoping that there might be an outbreak of commonsense sometime soon.

    Thoughts on Kemi. What she has proven is that she is not an IDS-type dud. She does possess something a bit special, but remains some considerable distance from being perceived by the public as a credible alternative PM. This is why I favoured Cleverly. But she has stifled Jenrick, so that's something and seems to be getting the hang of it, a bit. All the same, there is no movement in the polls and next May still looks grim. So, the long run it is.

    For May, I think the Conservatives will need to learn from Kenneth Baker who, back in the day, managed to persuade the media to focus on the results in Westminster and Wandsworth, and overlook what was happening everywhere else.
    Yes, about 40% of the 2019 Conservative vote has gone Reform, another 40% has stayed Tory and the remaining 20% has gone Labour or LD.
    Of the Conservatives who have gone Reform, from the likes of Dorries, Kruger and Gullis down they are all from the Boris loyalist wing which switched to backing Truss in 2022 v Sunak and backed Jenrick over Kemi last year. Ironically that may sure up Kemi's position and increase Cleverly or Stride's chances too as the more Jenrick backers go Reform, the harder it will be for Jenrick to replace Kemi as Tory leader before the next general election.

    You are also right, while the Tories will likely suffer losses overall in the local and devolved elections next May, they could gain Westminster and Barnet and should hold Kensington and Chelsea which Kemi and her backers would highlight
    Shore up.

    shore something up
    phrasal verb with shore verb
    uk /ʃɔːr/ us /ʃɔːr/
    Add to word list
    to stop a wall or a building from falling down by supporting it with building materials such as wood or metal:
    Boundary walls have had to be shored up.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 20,859

    HYUFD said:

    Roger said:

    First thought - I had never heard of any of these people before today.
    Second thought - Richard Tice's tweet to Gullis has a pretty nasty threatening tone to it. They're just not very nice people.

    Tice is and always has been a piece of work.
    He is rich though, net worth £40 million and a former party leader so Farage has to give him a big role
    Since when does wealth matter more than integrity?
    The latter half of the 1980s, I'm sad to say.
    Wrong. Probably before the invention of currency.
    I know what you mean, and you have a point, but...

    For a long time, the wealth was slightly shameful and the way to absolve that shame was civic duty.

    Thing One attends a school whose origins are in one of the City cartels livery companies and still benefits from their collective largesse from centuries ago.

    That has dissipated; Thatcher's hope that the rich would spend their tax cuts philanthropically mostly didn't happen
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 20,859
    Foxy said:

    Carnyx said:

    Make sure you are not ill at Christmas

    Resident doctors to strike from 17th to 22nd December

    In England, though. (Which is a lot of them, mind.)
    Pretty poor turnout last one, indeed in my department we barely noticed.
    When does the current strike mandate expire?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 69,141
    Andrew Lilico
    @andrew_lilico
    ·
    2h
    The PM & Chancellor can simply not be permitted to get away with claiming that the macroeconomic forecasts said they had less money. That's just completely false. Why should the OBR have to put up with being lied about like this?

    https://x.com/andrew_lilico/status/1995538546388558227
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 84,022

    These are comparatively good signings for Reform and a good way to get back the initiative after fading away recently.

    Seriously? Of all the idiots in the last parliament (on all sides), Jonathan Gullis reigned supreme.
    I'm hesitant to ask what "comparatively bad" might mean in this context.
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 7,092
    edited December 1
    On the Minirig 1 I'm listening to Judy Roderick which is awesome white blues, can't wait for the 4

    https://youtu.be/un1mdRPZln0
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,759

    Andrew Lilico
    @andrew_lilico
    ·
    2h
    The PM & Chancellor can simply not be permitted to get away with claiming that the macroeconomic forecasts said they had less money. That's just completely false. Why should the OBR have to put up with being lied about like this?

    https://x.com/andrew_lilico/status/1995538546388558227

    The trouble is: no-one believes this is the end of it.

    They seem to enjoy whacking taxes on people.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 7,840

    Integrity is what you do when you know no-one else is watching.

    Damn. I thought that was masturbation.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 131,876
    edited December 1

    HYUFD said:

    Roger said:

    First thought - I had never heard of any of these people before today.
    Second thought - Richard Tice's tweet to Gullis has a pretty nasty threatening tone to it. They're just not very nice people.

    Tice is and always has been a piece of work.
    He is rich though, net worth £40 million and a former party leader so Farage has to give him a big role
    Since when does wealth matter more than integrity?
    The latter half of the 1980s, I'm sad to say.
    Wrong. Probably before the invention of currency.
    I know what you mean, and you have a point, but...

    For a long time, the wealth was slightly shameful and the way to absolve that shame was civic duty.

    Thing One attends a school whose origins are in one of the City cartels livery companies and still benefits from their collective largesse from centuries ago.

    That has dissipated; Thatcher's hope that the rich would spend their tax cuts philanthropically mostly didn't happen
    One thing the US is better on than us is philanthropy amongst its rich 'The UK's wealthiest 1% donated nearly £8 billion in 2023, representing about 0.4% of their collective investable assets. In contrast, the U.S.'s wealthiest billionaires' charitable giving represented about 4.6% of their total wealth in late 2025'
    https://www.linkedin.com/posts/lynnderothschild_did-you-know-just-10-of-ultra-high-net-worth-activity-7264585783716548608-NF5Y#:~:text=12mo-,Did you know just 10% of ultra-high-net,expand this sector is immense.&text=Video Player is loading.

    https://professionalparaplanner.co.uk/uks-wealthiest-donate-nearly-8bn-to-charity/#:~:text=According to CAF's High Value Giving report,,these donors gave an estimated £7.96 billion.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,759
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    One major impact with defections is defectors go from being political enemies to being principled heroes who have seen the light on how brilliant your party is. The same goes for Reform in their treatment of the 3 Tory ex MP defectors today

    One of the ironies of the Tory/Reform switchers is that the very people who have laid the Tories low - those who indulged Boris, and then gave us Truss - are the very same people clambering aboard the Reform ship. Leaving the more sensible Tories who have remained, blinking in the twilight and hoping that there might be an outbreak of commonsense sometime soon.

    Thoughts on Kemi. What she has proven is that she is not an IDS-type dud. She does possess something a bit special, but remains some considerable distance from being perceived by the public as a credible alternative PM. This is why I favoured Cleverly. But she has stifled Jenrick, so that's something and seems to be getting the hang of it, a bit. All the same, there is no movement in the polls and next May still looks grim. So, the long run it is.

    For May, I think the Conservatives will need to learn from Kenneth Baker who, back in the day, managed to persuade the media to focus on the results in Westminster and Wandsworth, and overlook what was happening everywhere else.
    Yes, about 40% of the 2019 Conservative vote has gone Reform, another 40% has stayed Tory and the remaining 20% has gone Labour or LD.
    Of the Conservatives who have gone Reform, from the likes of Dorries, Kruger and Gullis down they are all from the Boris loyalist wing which switched to backing Truss in 2022 v Sunak and backed Jenrick over Kemi last year. Ironically that may sure up Kemi's position and increase Cleverly or Stride's chances too as the more Jenrick backers go Reform, the harder it will be for Jenrick to replace Kemi as Tory leader before the next general election.

    You are also right, while the Tories will likely suffer losses overall in the local and devolved elections next May, they could gain Westminster and Barnet and should hold Kensington and Chelsea which Kemi and her backers would highlight
    I increasingly think the Tories will gain seats back from the Liberal Democrats.

    They've convinced themselves it's all permanent because Values and Brexit, but the more they act like Santa's little helper the more voters in affluent English seats will make the choice they need to.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 131,876
    edited December 1

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    One major impact with defections is defectors go from being political enemies to being principled heroes who have seen the light on how brilliant your party is. The same goes for Reform in their treatment of the 3 Tory ex MP defectors today

    One of the ironies of the Tory/Reform switchers is that the very people who have laid the Tories low - those who indulged Boris, and then gave us Truss - are the very same people clambering aboard the Reform ship. Leaving the more sensible Tories who have remained, blinking in the twilight and hoping that there might be an outbreak of commonsense sometime soon.

    Thoughts on Kemi. What she has proven is that she is not an IDS-type dud. She does possess something a bit special, but remains some considerable distance from being perceived by the public as a credible alternative PM. This is why I favoured Cleverly. But she has stifled Jenrick, so that's something and seems to be getting the hang of it, a bit. All the same, there is no movement in the polls and next May still looks grim. So, the long run it is.

    For May, I think the Conservatives will need to learn from Kenneth Baker who, back in the day, managed to persuade the media to focus on the results in Westminster and Wandsworth, and overlook what was happening everywhere else.
    Yes, about 40% of the 2019 Conservative vote has gone Reform, another 40% has stayed Tory and the remaining 20% has gone Labour or LD.
    Of the Conservatives who have gone Reform, from the likes of Dorries, Kruger and Gullis down they are all from the Boris loyalist wing which switched to backing Truss in 2022 v Sunak and backed Jenrick over Kemi last year. Ironically that may sure up Kemi's position and increase Cleverly or Stride's chances too as the more Jenrick backers go Reform, the harder it will be for Jenrick to replace Kemi as Tory leader before the next general election.

    You are also right, while the Tories will likely suffer losses overall in the local and devolved elections next May, they could gain Westminster and Barnet and should hold Kensington and Chelsea which Kemi and her backers would highlight
    I increasingly think the Tories will gain seats back from the Liberal Democrats.

    They've convinced themselves it's all permanent because Values and Brexit, but the more they act like Santa's little helper the more voters in affluent English seats will make the choice they need to.
    Davey cleverly opposed the Mansion Tax, the WFA cut, the freezing of income tax thresholds, the family farm and family business tax and the NI rise on employers so I doubt that will happen.

    If the Tories gain any seats at the next GE they will almost certainly be Labour held
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 58,966
    carnforth said:

    Integrity is what you do when you know no-one else is watching.

    Damn. I thought that was masturbation.
    Lord John Whorfin: History is-a made at night. Character is what you are in the dark.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 84,022
    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    Dopermean said:

    DavidL said:

    I'm appalled.

    That this wasn't in the header - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d3Mrfut-FSw

    Pine, pine. We so need a politician that can think.
    "Hi Dave, It's Lex. I've got this great business opportunity factoring invoices and turning them into an insurance-backed instrument that I sell to investment banks. I need someone with your gravitas onboard to reassure the underwriters..."
    Bing and Google come up short. Is it "The Big Short"? It sounds like something Ryan Gosling would say, just before the "ripped to the tits" line.

    Pause

    Unless it's "Superman", of course :(

    (It's not "Margin Call", 'cos I know most of that off by heart)

    Please, speak as you might to a young child, or a Golden Retriever. It wasn’t brains that got me here, I can assure you that.
    "...Carmello, get me Eric Dale here by six-thirty. It's done..."

    It's one of the weirdest films ever. It consists of people reciting numbers to each other, mostly their salaries, but the crucial numbers - the values of the assets - are left vague, described only in superlatives - "we're going to be left holding the biggest bag of odorous excrement ever assembled in the history of (pause) capitalism". Everything about it is brilliant - check out the colour grading - and I really like the rumour that Kevin Spacey burying his dog in the end of the film is reflected in the first scene of "House of Cards", when the other Kevin Spacey character kills his dog.
    The portrayal of a bank CEO was spot on - instead of the Hollywood how-do-we-ignore-this-and-cover-it-up-so-we-all-go-to-jail-in-the-last-five-minutes, he goes straight for the win.
    Indeed. I'm looking at the clips again for the "nth" time and I *think* Jeremy Irons is the only character with a red tie. He does have an absolute stormer of a speech and he eats the words, desk, and possibly downtown Manhattan as he does so: he's having a whale of a time, and so am I. He's basically Scar on two legs. "So. That WE. MAY SURRRVIVE"

    :):):)
    A bigger beast than Scar, and more comfortable in his own skin.

    Scar was his best role, though, I think ?
    Decades on, I can still do the languid, resentful drawl: "...Life's not fair, is it ?"
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 53,459
    Quite obviously, these re-badged Tories think defecting is the only way they stand a chance of getting back their seats on the gravy train. It would be karma if Reform imploded before the election comes and another Tory gets the seat instead; at least it will be a fresh face who hasn't failed already.

    The almost-iron law of defectors is that they are great news for the receiving party on the day of the announcement, and bad news thereafter.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 4,417
    Pro_Rata said:

    My, the 1845 Met Office radar shows one of the finest organised narrow band of rain I've seen, starting out NE of Leeds and continuing, with a few small discontinuities, all the way to northern Brittany.

    I'm in a car park sheltering from it, though it has slid east of me a bit, but it's over Lichfield, Birmingham, mid Wiltshire, so a select few of us are dead on underneath it.

    I was watching that. Impressive, wasn't it?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 56,738

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    One major impact with defections is defectors go from being political enemies to being principled heroes who have seen the light on how brilliant your party is. The same goes for Reform in their treatment of the 3 Tory ex MP defectors today

    One of the ironies of the Tory/Reform switchers is that the very people who have laid the Tories low - those who indulged Boris, and then gave us Truss - are the very same people clambering aboard the Reform ship. Leaving the more sensible Tories who have remained, blinking in the twilight and hoping that there might be an outbreak of commonsense sometime soon.

    Thoughts on Kemi. What she has proven is that she is not an IDS-type dud. She does possess something a bit special, but remains some considerable distance from being perceived by the public as a credible alternative PM. This is why I favoured Cleverly. But she has stifled Jenrick, so that's something and seems to be getting the hang of it, a bit. All the same, there is no movement in the polls and next May still looks grim. So, the long run it is.

    For May, I think the Conservatives will need to learn from Kenneth Baker who, back in the day, managed to persuade the media to focus on the results in Westminster and Wandsworth, and overlook what was happening everywhere else.
    Yes, about 40% of the 2019 Conservative vote has gone Reform, another 40% has stayed Tory and the remaining 20% has gone Labour or LD.
    Of the Conservatives who have gone Reform, from the likes of Dorries, Kruger and Gullis down they are all from the Boris loyalist wing which switched to backing Truss in 2022 v Sunak and backed Jenrick over Kemi last year. Ironically that may sure up Kemi's position and increase Cleverly or Stride's chances too as the more Jenrick backers go Reform, the harder it will be for Jenrick to replace Kemi as Tory leader before the next general election.

    You are also right, while the Tories will likely suffer losses overall in the local and devolved elections next May, they could gain Westminster and Barnet and should hold Kensington and Chelsea which Kemi and her backers would highlight
    I increasingly think the Tories will gain seats back from the Liberal Democrats.

    They've convinced themselves it's all permanent because Values and Brexit, but the more they act like Santa's little helper the more voters in affluent English seats will make the choice they need to.
    If Kemi keeps picking up the pace - and Farage drops the ball as he has over the Budget, which was clearly a Kemi win - then we may get to a point where the voters assess the only way to get rid of Starmer with his massive majority is to vote the Tories back. Stll three and half years, but I am getting more confident that is where it will end up.

    Feel free to put a pin in this post.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 131,876
    edited December 1
    IanB2 said:

    Quite obviously, these re-badged Tories think defecting is the only way they stand a chance of getting back their seats on the gravy train. It would be karma if Reform imploded before the election comes and another Tory gets the seat instead; at least it will be a fresh face who hasn't failed already.

    The almost-iron law of defectors is that they are great news for the receiving party on the day of the announcement, and bad news thereafter.

    Yes, the more white working class the seat the more likely the careerist ex Tory MP is to go to Reform and the posher the seat the more likely the ex Tory MP is to stay Tory. I can't see the ex Tory MPs for Kensington, Chelsea, Henley, Epsom and Ewell and Winchester going Reform for example, you would have to be very ideologically attracted by Farage to go Reform in a Remain or soft Leave ex Tory seat as an ex Tory MP in London and the Home Counties for example
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 20,859
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    One major impact with defections is defectors go from being political enemies to being principled heroes who have seen the light on how brilliant your party is. The same goes for Reform in their treatment of the 3 Tory ex MP defectors today

    One of the ironies of the Tory/Reform switchers is that the very people who have laid the Tories low - those who indulged Boris, and then gave us Truss - are the very same people clambering aboard the Reform ship. Leaving the more sensible Tories who have remained, blinking in the twilight and hoping that there might be an outbreak of commonsense sometime soon.

    Thoughts on Kemi. What she has proven is that she is not an IDS-type dud. She does possess something a bit special, but remains some considerable distance from being perceived by the public as a credible alternative PM. This is why I favoured Cleverly. But she has stifled Jenrick, so that's something and seems to be getting the hang of it, a bit. All the same, there is no movement in the polls and next May still looks grim. So, the long run it is.

    For May, I think the Conservatives will need to learn from Kenneth Baker who, back in the day, managed to persuade the media to focus on the results in Westminster and Wandsworth, and overlook what was happening everywhere else.
    Yes, about 40% of the 2019 Conservative vote has gone Reform, another 40% has stayed Tory and the remaining 20% has gone Labour or LD.
    Of the Conservatives who have gone Reform, from the likes of Dorries, Kruger and Gullis down they are all from the Boris loyalist wing which switched to backing Truss in 2022 v Sunak and backed Jenrick over Kemi last year. Ironically that may sure up Kemi's position and increase Cleverly or Stride's chances too as the more Jenrick backers go Reform, the harder it will be for Jenrick to replace Kemi as Tory leader before the next general election.

    You are also right, while the Tories will likely suffer losses overall in the local and devolved elections next May, they could gain Westminster and Barnet and should hold Kensington and Chelsea which Kemi and her backers would highlight
    I increasingly think the Tories will gain seats back from the Liberal Democrats.

    They've convinced themselves it's all permanent because Values and Brexit, but the more they act like Santa's little helper the more voters in affluent English seats will make the choice they need to.
    Davey cleverly opposed the Mansion Tax, the WFA cut, the freezing of income tax thresholds, the family farm and family business tax and the NI rise on employers so I doubt that will happen.

    If the Tories gain any seats at the next GE they will almost certainly be Labour held
    Also, Lib Dems are bloody good at digging in locally. "Standing Up For Yourtown at Westminster", that sort of thing. The sort of antipolitics that is pushing Reform and the Greens forward right now.

    It will all go Pete Tong if the 2029 result is a LabLib coalition, but that only becomes an electoral problem in 2034 or so.

    Eight and a half years doesn't take long if you say it quickly.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 84,022

    DavidL said:

    As a conservative I have no issue with ex conservatives defecting to Reform and by default accepting Farage's far right policies

    Even if I am the last conservative standing, I will not vote for Reform or Labour

    And on standing, I have finally been awarded a blue badge today that will help in my battle against my recent loss of mobility

    Surely its a blue plaque for your contributions to PB?
    Though I am still alive !!!!
    I just checked; there's a twenty year rule.
    So it's just not worth it to rush, Big_G.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 54,176

    Foxy said:

    Carnyx said:

    Make sure you are not ill at Christmas

    Resident doctors to strike from 17th to 22nd December

    In England, though. (Which is a lot of them, mind.)
    Pretty poor turnout last one, indeed in my department we barely noticed.
    When does the current strike mandate expire?
    Beginning of January, though they can renew the mandate.

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,759
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    One major impact with defections is defectors go from being political enemies to being principled heroes who have seen the light on how brilliant your party is. The same goes for Reform in their treatment of the 3 Tory ex MP defectors today

    One of the ironies of the Tory/Reform switchers is that the very people who have laid the Tories low - those who indulged Boris, and then gave us Truss - are the very same people clambering aboard the Reform ship. Leaving the more sensible Tories who have remained, blinking in the twilight and hoping that there might be an outbreak of commonsense sometime soon.

    Thoughts on Kemi. What she has proven is that she is not an IDS-type dud. She does possess something a bit special, but remains some considerable distance from being perceived by the public as a credible alternative PM. This is why I favoured Cleverly. But she has stifled Jenrick, so that's something and seems to be getting the hang of it, a bit. All the same, there is no movement in the polls and next May still looks grim. So, the long run it is.

    For May, I think the Conservatives will need to learn from Kenneth Baker who, back in the day, managed to persuade the media to focus on the results in Westminster and Wandsworth, and overlook what was happening everywhere else.
    Yes, about 40% of the 2019 Conservative vote has gone Reform, another 40% has stayed Tory and the remaining 20% has gone Labour or LD.
    Of the Conservatives who have gone Reform, from the likes of Dorries, Kruger and Gullis down they are all from the Boris loyalist wing which switched to backing Truss in 2022 v Sunak and backed Jenrick over Kemi last year. Ironically that may sure up Kemi's position and increase Cleverly or Stride's chances too as the more Jenrick backers go Reform, the harder it will be for Jenrick to replace Kemi as Tory leader before the next general election.

    You are also right, while the Tories will likely suffer losses overall in the local and devolved elections next May, they could gain Westminster and Barnet and should hold Kensington and Chelsea which Kemi and her backers would highlight
    I increasingly think the Tories will gain seats back from the Liberal Democrats.

    They've convinced themselves it's all permanent because Values and Brexit, but the more they act like Santa's little helper the more voters in affluent English seats will make the choice they need to.
    Davey cleverly opposed the Mansion Tax, the WFA cut, the freezing of income tax thresholds, the family farm and family business tax and the NI rise on employers so I doubt that will happen.

    If the Tories gain any seats at the next GE they will almost certainly be Labour held
    I doubt it. The "vibe" around Ed Davey is far too social democrat and playground suck up.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 84,022

    Integrity is what you do when you know no-one else is watching.

    That seems an .. inadequate definition.

    For a start, it can also be not succumbing to peer pressure when you know everyone is watching.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 54,176

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    One major impact with defections is defectors go from being political enemies to being principled heroes who have seen the light on how brilliant your party is. The same goes for Reform in their treatment of the 3 Tory ex MP defectors today

    One of the ironies of the Tory/Reform switchers is that the very people who have laid the Tories low - those who indulged Boris, and then gave us Truss - are the very same people clambering aboard the Reform ship. Leaving the more sensible Tories who have remained, blinking in the twilight and hoping that there might be an outbreak of commonsense sometime soon.

    Thoughts on Kemi. What she has proven is that she is not an IDS-type dud. She does possess something a bit special, but remains some considerable distance from being perceived by the public as a credible alternative PM. This is why I favoured Cleverly. But she has stifled Jenrick, so that's something and seems to be getting the hang of it, a bit. All the same, there is no movement in the polls and next May still looks grim. So, the long run it is.

    For May, I think the Conservatives will need to learn from Kenneth Baker who, back in the day, managed to persuade the media to focus on the results in Westminster and Wandsworth, and overlook what was happening everywhere else.
    Yes, about 40% of the 2019 Conservative vote has gone Reform, another 40% has stayed Tory and the remaining 20% has gone Labour or LD.
    Of the Conservatives who have gone Reform, from the likes of Dorries, Kruger and Gullis down they are all from the Boris loyalist wing which switched to backing Truss in 2022 v Sunak and backed Jenrick over Kemi last year. Ironically that may sure up Kemi's position and increase Cleverly or Stride's chances too as the more Jenrick backers go Reform, the harder it will be for Jenrick to replace Kemi as Tory leader before the next general election.

    You are also right, while the Tories will likely suffer losses overall in the local and devolved elections next May, they could gain Westminster and Barnet and should hold Kensington and Chelsea which Kemi and her backers would highlight
    I increasingly think the Tories will gain seats back from the Liberal Democrats.

    They've convinced themselves it's all permanent because Values and Brexit, but the more they act like Santa's little helper the more voters in affluent English seats will make the choice they need to.
    If Kemi keeps picking up the pace - and Farage drops the ball as he has over the Budget, which was clearly a Kemi win - then we may get to a point where the voters assess the only way to get rid of Starmer with his massive majority is to vote the Tories back. Stll three and half years, but I am getting more confident that is where it will end up.

    Feel free to put a pin in this post.
    Badenoch is polling about 5% lower than the worst Tory defeat in 2 centuries, mid term against a desperately unpopular government.

    I think the Tories are more likely to lose further seats than to gain them. Its why these rats are defecting.

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 57,031
    Russia's 2026 budget has 40% of all spending for the military: https://theukrainianreview.info/russia-approves-2026-budget-40-of-spending-goes-to-military-ccd/

    A very marked increase. They are also running a deficit although, to be fair, it is considerably smaller than ours at 1.6% of GDP.

    Putin very clearly has absolutely no intention whatsoever of stopping this war.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 69,141
    Kitty Donaldson
    @kitty_donaldson

    EXC: Richard Hughes forced out after relations between the OBR and Treasury reached an all time low over Friday’s briefing on the size of the fiscal black hole

    https://x.com/kitty_donaldson/status/1995562585782169665
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,759
    DavidL said:

    Russia's 2026 budget has 40% of all spending for the military: https://theukrainianreview.info/russia-approves-2026-budget-40-of-spending-goes-to-military-ccd/

    A very marked increase. They are also running a deficit although, to be fair, it is considerably smaller than ours at 1.6% of GDP.

    Putin very clearly has absolutely no intention whatsoever of stopping this war.

    That would be like spending north of £480 billion on Defence in the UK. Almost a tenfold increase.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 69,141
    DavidL said:

    Russia's 2026 budget has 40% of all spending for the military: https://theukrainianreview.info/russia-approves-2026-budget-40-of-spending-goes-to-military-ccd/

    A very marked increase. They are also running a deficit although, to be fair, it is considerably smaller than ours at 1.6% of GDP.

    Putin very clearly has absolutely no intention whatsoever of stopping this war.

    Russia is losing.

    Putin doesn't know.

    Sadly, nor does Trump.


  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,762
    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    One major impact with defections is defectors go from being political enemies to being principled heroes who have seen the light on how brilliant your party is. The same goes for Reform in their treatment of the 3 Tory ex MP defectors today

    One of the ironies of the Tory/Reform switchers is that the very people who have laid the Tories low - those who indulged Boris, and then gave us Truss - are the very same people clambering aboard the Reform ship. Leaving the more sensible Tories who have remained, blinking in the twilight and hoping that there might be an outbreak of commonsense sometime soon.

    Thoughts on Kemi. What she has proven is that she is not an IDS-type dud. She does possess something a bit special, but remains some considerable distance from being perceived by the public as a credible alternative PM. This is why I favoured Cleverly. But she has stifled Jenrick, so that's something and seems to be getting the hang of it, a bit. All the same, there is no movement in the polls and next May still looks grim. So, the long run it is.

    For May, I think the Conservatives will need to learn from Kenneth Baker who, back in the day, managed to persuade the media to focus on the results in Westminster and Wandsworth, and overlook what was happening everywhere else.
    Yes, about 40% of the 2019 Conservative vote has gone Reform, another 40% has stayed Tory and the remaining 20% has gone Labour or LD.
    Of the Conservatives who have gone Reform, from the likes of Dorries, Kruger and Gullis down they are all from the Boris loyalist wing which switched to backing Truss in 2022 v Sunak and backed Jenrick over Kemi last year. Ironically that may sure up Kemi's position and increase Cleverly or Stride's chances too as the more Jenrick backers go Reform, the harder it will be for Jenrick to replace Kemi as Tory leader before the next general election.

    You are also right, while the Tories will likely suffer losses overall in the local and devolved elections next May, they could gain Westminster and Barnet and should hold Kensington and Chelsea which Kemi and her backers would highlight
    I increasingly think the Tories will gain seats back from the Liberal Democrats.

    They've convinced themselves it's all permanent because Values and Brexit, but the more they act like Santa's little helper the more voters in affluent English seats will make the choice they need to.
    If Kemi keeps picking up the pace - and Farage drops the ball as he has over the Budget, which was clearly a Kemi win - then we may get to a point where the voters assess the only way to get rid of Starmer with his massive majority is to vote the Tories back. Stll three and half years, but I am getting more confident that is where it will end up.

    Feel free to put a pin in this post.
    Badenoch is polling about 5% lower than the worst Tory defeat in 2 centuries, mid term against a desperately unpopular government.

    I think the Tories are more likely to lose further seats than to gain them. Its why these rats are defecting.

    There's a mixture of despair and complacency within the Tory ranks. Some are looking at other options, either because they like the look of them or fear it is their only option, or they are acting like they have all the time in the world and things will inevitably swing back.

    Worth remembering that on some of the polling the Tories could have ended up with sub-100 seats. IIRC on the night the initial results suggested they might do a little better (if still horribly) at more like 140/150 seats, until the LDs swept the southern golden arch.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,762

    DavidL said:

    Russia's 2026 budget has 40% of all spending for the military: https://theukrainianreview.info/russia-approves-2026-budget-40-of-spending-goes-to-military-ccd/

    A very marked increase. They are also running a deficit although, to be fair, it is considerably smaller than ours at 1.6% of GDP.

    Putin very clearly has absolutely no intention whatsoever of stopping this war.

    Russia is losing.

    Putin doesn't know.

    Sadly, nor does Trump.


    Putin banked it all on the West getting bored/frustrated. It has taken longer than he wanted, and it won't result in as big a gain as he wanted, but Trump and Vance were a godsend for him.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 20,859
    DavidL said:

    Russia's 2026 budget has 40% of all spending for the military: https://theukrainianreview.info/russia-approves-2026-budget-40-of-spending-goes-to-military-ccd/

    A very marked increase. They are also running a deficit although, to be fair, it is considerably smaller than ours at 1.6% of GDP.

    Putin very clearly has absolutely no intention whatsoever of stopping this war.

    Putin can't end this war, because if he does, there are an awful lot of windows to push him out of.

    But this looks very much shit or bust. The Russian President is one, and his country is close to being the other.
  • Everyone should listen to 60,000,000 Buffalo, whatever Minirig they have

    https://youtu.be/ZTn_kTekmqs
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