If Sultana joins Polanski then Jez may as well go back to his allotment.
It's over.
Does Polanski want every fruit and nut to join?
Anyone who’ll believe that he can hypnotise some voluptuous financial figures
While everyone in Whitehall and surroundings is focussed on Sun story of breast enlargements the Greens are marching up the polls.
Labour may well be facing a once in a century wipe out.
The next election could be Reform v Green.
Which would be utterly depressing.
In one universe, it could be Reform as the left wing option with Union support, and Tories as the right wing option. That would be a country that would prosper.
Not this one
The direction of travel is for Labour Tory crossover very soon. That will make the Tories and Reform the top 2 parties.
"Prepare next for the great sell: a wave of propaganda rolling soon in our direction, praising Trump, the inspired bringer of peace, brushing aside petty concerns about geography, missiles and tank divisions. Brace for the reassuring, conciliatory speech from a smiling Putin, so eagerly quoted by diminished Western leaders. We will be fed heartwarming stories of returning villagers and of churches being restored; a new age of peace and amity with Russia will be proclaimed. Believe not a word.
"Maybe, in the end, this was all inevitable. Small states can defeat great ones – Vietnam, Afghanistan – but they are the exception, and they are rarely neighbours of their greater enemies. Mostly, might prevails. This is what Donald Trump thinks, and this is what Vladimir Putin thinks. And with the vast power of Xi Jinping’s China watching it all, they are in the driving seat. If this capitulation is imposed, that is the big lesson to remember: there are no reliable international rules or norms any more. If you are part of the world of smaller nations, tool up, onshore what industries you can, start filling the sandbags. Because history is back, and our enemies are coming, one day, for us."
Something else to chew on (By David Runciman, Hon Prof of Politics, Cambridge Uni)
"For decades the Japanese health ministry has released an annual tally of citizens aged one hundred or over. This year the number of centenarians reached very nearly a hundred thousand. When the survey started in 1963, there were just 153. In 1981 there were a thousand; in 1998 ten thousand. Japan now produces more nappies for incontinent adults than for infants. There is a burgeoning industry for the cleaning and fumigating of apartments in which elderly Japanese citizens have died and been left undiscovered for weeks, months or years."
Thinking about it, helps to explain Putin. Russia, like Japan, is stuffed demographically. Last chance to do something, especially in face of possible German rearmament. Those Baltic States are going to just hand themselves over by themselves. And you can't easily unwind a war economy.
If we want to talk long term demographics, it's not looking good for China thanks to the one-child policy. The median age in both China and Russia is 40.3 years, in the UK it's 40.1, in the US it's 38.5, in Brazil 34.8, in India 28.8 and in Nigeria 18.1 years. The future global superpowers are likely India and Nigeria - the dawning of the equatorial age perhaps though will climate age promote more northward and southward migration - remember, 85% of humanity lives north of the equator and only 15% south.
India maybe not Nigeria though its gdp will grow its gdp per capita won’t as much, it also doesn’t have the size of military India has not yet nukes
I also have my doubts about the accuracy of Nigerian population data. There may be nowhere near as many of them as claimed
Really? Why? I would have thought if anything they were likely to be undercounting.
"Prepare next for the great sell: a wave of propaganda rolling soon in our direction, praising Trump, the inspired bringer of peace, brushing aside petty concerns about geography, missiles and tank divisions. Brace for the reassuring, conciliatory speech from a smiling Putin, so eagerly quoted by diminished Western leaders. We will be fed heartwarming stories of returning villagers and of churches being restored; a new age of peace and amity with Russia will be proclaimed. Believe not a word.
"Maybe, in the end, this was all inevitable. Small states can defeat great ones – Vietnam, Afghanistan – but they are the exception, and they are rarely neighbours of their greater enemies. Mostly, might prevails. This is what Donald Trump thinks, and this is what Vladimir Putin thinks. And with the vast power of Xi Jinping’s China watching it all, they are in the driving seat. If this capitulation is imposed, that is the big lesson to remember: there are no reliable international rules or norms any more. If you are part of the world of smaller nations, tool up, onshore what industries you can, start filling the sandbags. Because history is back, and our enemies are coming, one day, for us."
Something else to chew on (By David Runciman, Hon Prof of Politics, Cambridge Uni)
"For decades the Japanese health ministry has released an annual tally of citizens aged one hundred or over. This year the number of centenarians reached very nearly a hundred thousand. When the survey started in 1963, there were just 153. In 1981 there were a thousand; in 1998 ten thousand. Japan now produces more nappies for incontinent adults than for infants. There is a burgeoning industry for the cleaning and fumigating of apartments in which elderly Japanese citizens have died and been left undiscovered for weeks, months or years."
Thinking about it, helps to explain Putin. Russia, like Japan, is stuffed demographically. Last chance to do something, especially in face of possible German rearmament. Those Baltic States are going to just hand themselves over by themselves. And you can't easily unwind a war economy.
If we want to talk long term demographics, it's not looking good for China thanks to the one-child policy. The median age in both China and Russia is 40.3 years, in the UK it's 40.1, in the US it's 38.5, in Brazil 34.8, in India 28.8 and in Nigeria 18.1 years. The future global superpowers are likely India and Nigeria - the dawning of the equatorial age perhaps though will climate age promote more northward and southward migration - remember, 85% of humanity lives north of the equator and only 15% south.
Peter Zeihan has been predicting Chinese collapse for some time. Here's 10 minutes on it from a couple of years ago. Worth a watch. Maybe it's all cracking underneath the inscrutable Xi veneer. And, actually, how many Chinese are there?
Indeed - I don't have his knowledge but my sense is after decades of impressive (if officially inflated) growth numbers, China is going to hit the same problems as any other developed economy in terms of demographics and the expectations of the population. How the political/economic system copes with these changes over the next few decades I've no clue.
Having watched one of Peter Zeihan's videos on China - which I thought was quite interesting - youtube is now bombarding me with videos on the travails and imminent collapse of China (and also, oddly, on the iniquities of the Chinese dating scene). It's fascinating that this sub-genre exists. They range from sober and plausible to so wild that it is hard to take them seriously. I also get the odd channel presented by a westerner which is so wildly partisan in favour of how well-governed China is, and how feeble the west is, that they are clearly funded by the CCP. Which in turn raises some questions about the "China is about to collapse" videos. That said, I was very much in the 'China is on borrowed time' camp to start with. I quite enjoy the 'China's population is about one third of official figures' conspiracy, but that doesn't mean I believe it. I do suspect the population is less than claimed - but surely not THAT much less?
A chap I worked with, went into the ex-Soviet SRs to learn about their oil industry in the early 90s. Learnt Soviet accounting methods, spoke the language.
The whole industry had been run on a pyramid of lies.
He also looked into other things - as a side thing he found out how and why the population figures had got cooked. The USSR was obsessed with manpower - your giant conscript army is only as good as the number of conscripts. So the the classic Soviet thing happened - the managers lied to the mangers above them, who in turn... all the way to the politburo. So the people running the country had ridiculously fake numbers.
In that case, the local party guys were reporting the number of babies born. And adding on the number of late term abortions....
"Prepare next for the great sell: a wave of propaganda rolling soon in our direction, praising Trump, the inspired bringer of peace, brushing aside petty concerns about geography, missiles and tank divisions. Brace for the reassuring, conciliatory speech from a smiling Putin, so eagerly quoted by diminished Western leaders. We will be fed heartwarming stories of returning villagers and of churches being restored; a new age of peace and amity with Russia will be proclaimed. Believe not a word.
"Maybe, in the end, this was all inevitable. Small states can defeat great ones – Vietnam, Afghanistan – but they are the exception, and they are rarely neighbours of their greater enemies. Mostly, might prevails. This is what Donald Trump thinks, and this is what Vladimir Putin thinks. And with the vast power of Xi Jinping’s China watching it all, they are in the driving seat. If this capitulation is imposed, that is the big lesson to remember: there are no reliable international rules or norms any more. If you are part of the world of smaller nations, tool up, onshore what industries you can, start filling the sandbags. Because history is back, and our enemies are coming, one day, for us."
Something else to chew on (By David Runciman, Hon Prof of Politics, Cambridge Uni)
"For decades the Japanese health ministry has released an annual tally of citizens aged one hundred or over. This year the number of centenarians reached very nearly a hundred thousand. When the survey started in 1963, there were just 153. In 1981 there were a thousand; in 1998 ten thousand. Japan now produces more nappies for incontinent adults than for infants. There is a burgeoning industry for the cleaning and fumigating of apartments in which elderly Japanese citizens have died and been left undiscovered for weeks, months or years."
Thinking about it, helps to explain Putin. Russia, like Japan, is stuffed demographically. Last chance to do something, especially in face of possible German rearmament. Those Baltic States are going to just hand themselves over by themselves. And you can't easily unwind a war economy.
If we want to talk long term demographics, it's not looking good for China thanks to the one-child policy. The median age in both China and Russia is 40.3 years, in the UK it's 40.1, in the US it's 38.5, in Brazil 34.8, in India 28.8 and in Nigeria 18.1 years. The future global superpowers are likely India and Nigeria - the dawning of the equatorial age perhaps though will climate age promote more northward and southward migration - remember, 85% of humanity lives north of the equator and only 15% south.
India maybe not Nigeria though its gdp will grow its gdp per capita won’t as much, it also doesn’t have the size of military India has not yet nukes
I also have my doubts about the accuracy of Nigerian population data. There may be nowhere near as many of them as claimed
Really? Why? I would have thought if anything they were likely to be undercounting.
Because - and I can't remember the details, so I go no stronger than 'have my doubts' - as I understand it, local bureaucrats are rewarded if their localities show population growth. That, to me, is asking for trouble. As I say, I may have massively misremembered the details.
"Prepare next for the great sell: a wave of propaganda rolling soon in our direction, praising Trump, the inspired bringer of peace, brushing aside petty concerns about geography, missiles and tank divisions. Brace for the reassuring, conciliatory speech from a smiling Putin, so eagerly quoted by diminished Western leaders. We will be fed heartwarming stories of returning villagers and of churches being restored; a new age of peace and amity with Russia will be proclaimed. Believe not a word.
"Maybe, in the end, this was all inevitable. Small states can defeat great ones – Vietnam, Afghanistan – but they are the exception, and they are rarely neighbours of their greater enemies. Mostly, might prevails. This is what Donald Trump thinks, and this is what Vladimir Putin thinks. And with the vast power of Xi Jinping’s China watching it all, they are in the driving seat. If this capitulation is imposed, that is the big lesson to remember: there are no reliable international rules or norms any more. If you are part of the world of smaller nations, tool up, onshore what industries you can, start filling the sandbags. Because history is back, and our enemies are coming, one day, for us."
Something else to chew on (By David Runciman, Hon Prof of Politics, Cambridge Uni)
"For decades the Japanese health ministry has released an annual tally of citizens aged one hundred or over. This year the number of centenarians reached very nearly a hundred thousand. When the survey started in 1963, there were just 153. In 1981 there were a thousand; in 1998 ten thousand. Japan now produces more nappies for incontinent adults than for infants. There is a burgeoning industry for the cleaning and fumigating of apartments in which elderly Japanese citizens have died and been left undiscovered for weeks, months or years."
Thinking about it, helps to explain Putin. Russia, like Japan, is stuffed demographically. Last chance to do something, especially in face of possible German rearmament. Those Baltic States are going to just hand themselves over by themselves. And you can't easily unwind a war economy.
If we want to talk long term demographics, it's not looking good for China thanks to the one-child policy. The median age in both China and Russia is 40.3 years, in the UK it's 40.1, in the US it's 38.5, in Brazil 34.8, in India 28.8 and in Nigeria 18.1 years. The future global superpowers are likely India and Nigeria - the dawning of the equatorial age perhaps though will climate age promote more northward and southward migration - remember, 85% of humanity lives north of the equator and only 15% south.
India maybe not Nigeria though its gdp will grow its gdp per capita won’t as much, it also doesn’t have the size of military India has not yet nukes
I also have my doubts about the accuracy of Nigerian population data. There may be nowhere near as many of them as claimed
Really? Why? I would have thought if anything they were likely to be undercounting.
Because - and I can't remember the details, so I go no stronger than 'have my doubts' - as I understand it, local bureaucrats are rewarded if their localities show population growth. That, to me, is asking for trouble. As I say, I may have massively misremembered the details.
Ok, that makes sense (and links to @Malmesbury ’s comment on the USSR above). Thanks.
"Prepare next for the great sell: a wave of propaganda rolling soon in our direction, praising Trump, the inspired bringer of peace, brushing aside petty concerns about geography, missiles and tank divisions. Brace for the reassuring, conciliatory speech from a smiling Putin, so eagerly quoted by diminished Western leaders. We will be fed heartwarming stories of returning villagers and of churches being restored; a new age of peace and amity with Russia will be proclaimed. Believe not a word.
"Maybe, in the end, this was all inevitable. Small states can defeat great ones – Vietnam, Afghanistan – but they are the exception, and they are rarely neighbours of their greater enemies. Mostly, might prevails. This is what Donald Trump thinks, and this is what Vladimir Putin thinks. And with the vast power of Xi Jinping’s China watching it all, they are in the driving seat. If this capitulation is imposed, that is the big lesson to remember: there are no reliable international rules or norms any more. If you are part of the world of smaller nations, tool up, onshore what industries you can, start filling the sandbags. Because history is back, and our enemies are coming, one day, for us."
Something else to chew on (By David Runciman, Hon Prof of Politics, Cambridge Uni)
"For decades the Japanese health ministry has released an annual tally of citizens aged one hundred or over. This year the number of centenarians reached very nearly a hundred thousand. When the survey started in 1963, there were just 153. In 1981 there were a thousand; in 1998 ten thousand. Japan now produces more nappies for incontinent adults than for infants. There is a burgeoning industry for the cleaning and fumigating of apartments in which elderly Japanese citizens have died and been left undiscovered for weeks, months or years."
Thinking about it, helps to explain Putin. Russia, like Japan, is stuffed demographically. Last chance to do something, especially in face of possible German rearmament. Those Baltic States are going to just hand themselves over by themselves. And you can't easily unwind a war economy.
If we want to talk long term demographics, it's not looking good for China thanks to the one-child policy. The median age in both China and Russia is 40.3 years, in the UK it's 40.1, in the US it's 38.5, in Brazil 34.8, in India 28.8 and in Nigeria 18.1 years. The future global superpowers are likely India and Nigeria - the dawning of the equatorial age perhaps though will climate age promote more northward and southward migration - remember, 85% of humanity lives north of the equator and only 15% south.
India maybe not Nigeria though its gdp will grow its gdp per capita won’t as much, it also doesn’t have the size of military India has not yet nukes
I also have my doubts about the accuracy of Nigerian population data. There may be nowhere near as many of them as claimed
"Prepare next for the great sell: a wave of propaganda rolling soon in our direction, praising Trump, the inspired bringer of peace, brushing aside petty concerns about geography, missiles and tank divisions. Brace for the reassuring, conciliatory speech from a smiling Putin, so eagerly quoted by diminished Western leaders. We will be fed heartwarming stories of returning villagers and of churches being restored; a new age of peace and amity with Russia will be proclaimed. Believe not a word.
"Maybe, in the end, this was all inevitable. Small states can defeat great ones – Vietnam, Afghanistan – but they are the exception, and they are rarely neighbours of their greater enemies. Mostly, might prevails. This is what Donald Trump thinks, and this is what Vladimir Putin thinks. And with the vast power of Xi Jinping’s China watching it all, they are in the driving seat. If this capitulation is imposed, that is the big lesson to remember: there are no reliable international rules or norms any more. If you are part of the world of smaller nations, tool up, onshore what industries you can, start filling the sandbags. Because history is back, and our enemies are coming, one day, for us."
Something else to chew on (By David Runciman, Hon Prof of Politics, Cambridge Uni)
"For decades the Japanese health ministry has released an annual tally of citizens aged one hundred or over. This year the number of centenarians reached very nearly a hundred thousand. When the survey started in 1963, there were just 153. In 1981 there were a thousand; in 1998 ten thousand. Japan now produces more nappies for incontinent adults than for infants. There is a burgeoning industry for the cleaning and fumigating of apartments in which elderly Japanese citizens have died and been left undiscovered for weeks, months or years."
Thinking about it, helps to explain Putin. Russia, like Japan, is stuffed demographically. Last chance to do something, especially in face of possible German rearmament. Those Baltic States are going to just hand themselves over by themselves. And you can't easily unwind a war economy.
If we want to talk long term demographics, it's not looking good for China thanks to the one-child policy. The median age in both China and Russia is 40.3 years, in the UK it's 40.1, in the US it's 38.5, in Brazil 34.8, in India 28.8 and in Nigeria 18.1 years. The future global superpowers are likely India and Nigeria - the dawning of the equatorial age perhaps though will climate age promote more northward and southward migration - remember, 85% of humanity lives north of the equator and only 15% south.
India maybe not Nigeria though its gdp will grow its gdp per capita won’t as much, it also doesn’t have the size of military India has not yet nukes
I also have my doubts about the accuracy of Nigerian population data. There may be nowhere near as many of them as claimed
If Sultana joins Polanski then Jez may as well go back to his allotment.
It's over.
Does Polanski want every fruit and nut to join?
Anyone who’ll believe that he can hypnotise some voluptuous financial figures
While everyone in Whitehall and surroundings is focussed on Sun story of breast enlargements the Greens are marching up the polls.
Labour may well be facing a once in a century wipe out.
The next election could be Reform v Green.
Which would be utterly depressing.
The mortals said we were all bored with the centrist consensus, and wanted something different, new and exciting.
So the gods cursed the mortals in the way they always do... by giving them exactly what they said they wanted.
(I don't think it will happen, not this time anyway, for all that Polanski has said he wants a deathmatch against Farage, who I am sure would be up for it. But it's far too plausible, and it will serve the rest of us right if it does.)
The mortals all said they were tired of the Tory psychodrama of Boris and Truss, and they wanted 'the grown ups back in the room'. God visited upon them Sunak (we'll call that the invasion of the frogs), but yay they still called for more grown ups back in the room, so God sent the plague of locusts (Starmer and Reeves). Let's hope against hope that centrists shut their trap and learn some self-awareness before we get the infection of boils.
"Prepare next for the great sell: a wave of propaganda rolling soon in our direction, praising Trump, the inspired bringer of peace, brushing aside petty concerns about geography, missiles and tank divisions. Brace for the reassuring, conciliatory speech from a smiling Putin, so eagerly quoted by diminished Western leaders. We will be fed heartwarming stories of returning villagers and of churches being restored; a new age of peace and amity with Russia will be proclaimed. Believe not a word.
"Maybe, in the end, this was all inevitable. Small states can defeat great ones – Vietnam, Afghanistan – but they are the exception, and they are rarely neighbours of their greater enemies. Mostly, might prevails. This is what Donald Trump thinks, and this is what Vladimir Putin thinks. And with the vast power of Xi Jinping’s China watching it all, they are in the driving seat. If this capitulation is imposed, that is the big lesson to remember: there are no reliable international rules or norms any more. If you are part of the world of smaller nations, tool up, onshore what industries you can, start filling the sandbags. Because history is back, and our enemies are coming, one day, for us."
Something else to chew on (By David Runciman, Hon Prof of Politics, Cambridge Uni)
"For decades the Japanese health ministry has released an annual tally of citizens aged one hundred or over. This year the number of centenarians reached very nearly a hundred thousand. When the survey started in 1963, there were just 153. In 1981 there were a thousand; in 1998 ten thousand. Japan now produces more nappies for incontinent adults than for infants. There is a burgeoning industry for the cleaning and fumigating of apartments in which elderly Japanese citizens have died and been left undiscovered for weeks, months or years."
Thinking about it, helps to explain Putin. Russia, like Japan, is stuffed demographically. Last chance to do something, especially in face of possible German rearmament. Those Baltic States are going to just hand themselves over by themselves. And you can't easily unwind a war economy.
If we want to talk long term demographics, it's not looking good for China thanks to the one-child policy. The median age in both China and Russia is 40.3 years, in the UK it's 40.1, in the US it's 38.5, in Brazil 34.8, in India 28.8 and in Nigeria 18.1 years. The future global superpowers are likely India and Nigeria - the dawning of the equatorial age perhaps though will climate age promote more northward and southward migration - remember, 85% of humanity lives north of the equator and only 15% south.
Peter Zeihan has been predicting Chinese collapse for some time. Here's 10 minutes on it from a couple of years ago. Worth a watch. Maybe it's all cracking underneath the inscrutable Xi veneer. And, actually, how many Chinese are there?
Indeed - I don't have his knowledge but my sense is after decades of impressive (if officially inflated) growth numbers, China is going to hit the same problems as any other developed economy in terms of demographics and the expectations of the population. How the political/economic system copes with these changes over the next few decades I've no clue.
Having watched one of Peter Zeihan's videos on China - which I thought was quite interesting - youtube is now bombarding me with videos on the travails and imminent collapse of China (and also, oddly, on the iniquities of the Chinese dating scene). It's fascinating that this sub-genre exists. They range from sober and plausible to so wild that it is hard to take them seriously. I also get the odd channel presented by a westerner which is so wildly partisan in favour of how well-governed China is, and how feeble the west is, that they are clearly funded by the CCP. Which in turn raises some questions about the "China is about to collapse" videos. That said, I was very much in the 'China is on borrowed time' camp to start with. I quite enjoy the 'China's population is about one third of official figures' conspiracy, but that doesn't mean I believe it. I do suspect the population is less than claimed - but surely not THAT much less?
A chap I worked with, went into the ex-Soviet SRs to learn about their oil industry in the early 90s. Learnt Soviet accounting methods, spoke the language.
The whole industry had been run on a pyramid of lies.
He also looked into other things - as a side thing he found out how and why the population figures had got cooked. The USSR was obsessed with manpower - your giant conscript army is only as good as the number of conscripts. So the the classic Soviet thing happened - the managers lied to the mangers above them, who in turn... all the way to the politburo. So the people running the country had ridiculously fake numbers.
In that case, the local party guys were reporting the number of babies born. And adding on the number of late term abortions....
I hadn't considered whether this might also be true of Russia, but this is all too plausible, particularly given what we've found out about tge gap between claimed and real Russian military capability. The population of Russia might be significantly smaller than 140m.
"Prepare next for the great sell: a wave of propaganda rolling soon in our direction, praising Trump, the inspired bringer of peace, brushing aside petty concerns about geography, missiles and tank divisions. Brace for the reassuring, conciliatory speech from a smiling Putin, so eagerly quoted by diminished Western leaders. We will be fed heartwarming stories of returning villagers and of churches being restored; a new age of peace and amity with Russia will be proclaimed. Believe not a word.
"Maybe, in the end, this was all inevitable. Small states can defeat great ones – Vietnam, Afghanistan – but they are the exception, and they are rarely neighbours of their greater enemies. Mostly, might prevails. This is what Donald Trump thinks, and this is what Vladimir Putin thinks. And with the vast power of Xi Jinping’s China watching it all, they are in the driving seat. If this capitulation is imposed, that is the big lesson to remember: there are no reliable international rules or norms any more. If you are part of the world of smaller nations, tool up, onshore what industries you can, start filling the sandbags. Because history is back, and our enemies are coming, one day, for us."
Something else to chew on (By David Runciman, Hon Prof of Politics, Cambridge Uni)
"For decades the Japanese health ministry has released an annual tally of citizens aged one hundred or over. This year the number of centenarians reached very nearly a hundred thousand. When the survey started in 1963, there were just 153. In 1981 there were a thousand; in 1998 ten thousand. Japan now produces more nappies for incontinent adults than for infants. There is a burgeoning industry for the cleaning and fumigating of apartments in which elderly Japanese citizens have died and been left undiscovered for weeks, months or years."
Thinking about it, helps to explain Putin. Russia, like Japan, is stuffed demographically. Last chance to do something, especially in face of possible German rearmament. Those Baltic States are going to just hand themselves over by themselves. And you can't easily unwind a war economy.
If we want to talk long term demographics, it's not looking good for China thanks to the one-child policy. The median age in both China and Russia is 40.3 years, in the UK it's 40.1, in the US it's 38.5, in Brazil 34.8, in India 28.8 and in Nigeria 18.1 years. The future global superpowers are likely India and Nigeria - the dawning of the equatorial age perhaps though will climate age promote more northward and southward migration - remember, 85% of humanity lives north of the equator and only 15% south.
Peter Zeihan has been predicting Chinese collapse for some time. Here's 10 minutes on it from a couple of years ago. Worth a watch. Maybe it's all cracking underneath the inscrutable Xi veneer. And, actually, how many Chinese are there?
Indeed - I don't have his knowledge but my sense is after decades of impressive (if officially inflated) growth numbers, China is going to hit the same problems as any other developed economy in terms of demographics and the expectations of the population. How the political/economic system copes with these changes over the next few decades I've no clue.
Having watched one of Peter Zeihan's videos on China - which I thought was quite interesting - youtube is now bombarding me with videos on the travails and imminent collapse of China (and also, oddly, on the iniquities of the Chinese dating scene). It's fascinating that this sub-genre exists. They range from sober and plausible to so wild that it is hard to take them seriously. I also get the odd channel presented by a westerner which is so wildly partisan in favour of how well-governed China is, and how feeble the west is, that they are clearly funded by the CCP. Which in turn raises some questions about the "China is about to collapse" videos. That said, I was very much in the 'China is on borrowed time' camp to start with. I quite enjoy the 'China's population is about one third of official figures' conspiracy, but that doesn't mean I believe it. I do suspect the population is less than claimed - but surely not THAT much less?
A chap I worked with, went into the ex-Soviet SRs to learn about their oil industry in the early 90s. Learnt Soviet accounting methods, spoke the language.
The whole industry had been run on a pyramid of lies.
He also looked into other things - as a side thing he found out how and why the population figures had got cooked. The USSR was obsessed with manpower - your giant conscript army is only as good as the number of conscripts. So the the classic Soviet thing happened - the managers lied to the mangers above them, who in turn... all the way to the politburo. So the people running the country had ridiculously fake numbers.
In that case, the local party guys were reporting the number of babies born. And adding on the number of late term abortions....
I hadn't considered whether this might also be true of Russia, but this is all too plausible, particularly given what we've found out about tge gap between claimed and real Russian military capability. The population of Russia might be significantly smaller than 140m.
Yes, and its leader might actually be smaller than 1.4m. Has anybody actually measured him?
Clearly Zara's move is unhelpful and will dominate the reports in the media. That said, I've been watching most of the conference online (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-755kRtHWdw) and it's overwhelmingly polite and friendly - Lee's Harpin's description of "chaos" is just silly.
Your Party is a very silly name. It's lazy. We are whatever 'you' want us to be.
They should say what they are, and give people something to rally to.
Possibly the issue is that there's not really anything there they think people will want to rally to.
Having quite liked Your Party as a working title I think they need a new name, mainly to move on from the current shitshow but also because it sounds a bit daft in interviews.
Clearly Zara's move is unhelpful and will dominate the reports in the media. That said, I've been watching most of the conference online (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-755kRtHWdw) and it's overwhelmingly polite and friendly - Lee's Harpin's description of "chaos" is just silly.
Your Party is a very silly name. It's lazy. We are whatever 'you' want us to be.
They should say what they are, and give people something to rally to.
Possibly the issue is that there's not really anything there they think people will want to rally to.
Having quite liked Your Party as a working title I think they need a new name, mainly to move on from the current shitshow but also because it sounds a bit daft in interviews.
Clearly Zara's move is unhelpful and will dominate the reports in the media. That said, I've been watching most of the conference online (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-755kRtHWdw) and it's overwhelmingly polite and friendly - Lee's Harpin's description of "chaos" is just silly.
Your Party is a very silly name. It's lazy. We are whatever 'you' want us to be.
They should say what they are, and give people something to rally to.
Possibly the issue is that there's not really anything there they think people will want to rally to.
Having quite liked Your Party as a working title I think they need a new name, mainly to move on from the current shitshow but also because it sounds a bit daft in interviews.
"Prepare next for the great sell: a wave of propaganda rolling soon in our direction, praising Trump, the inspired bringer of peace, brushing aside petty concerns about geography, missiles and tank divisions. Brace for the reassuring, conciliatory speech from a smiling Putin, so eagerly quoted by diminished Western leaders. We will be fed heartwarming stories of returning villagers and of churches being restored; a new age of peace and amity with Russia will be proclaimed. Believe not a word.
"Maybe, in the end, this was all inevitable. Small states can defeat great ones – Vietnam, Afghanistan – but they are the exception, and they are rarely neighbours of their greater enemies. Mostly, might prevails. This is what Donald Trump thinks, and this is what Vladimir Putin thinks. And with the vast power of Xi Jinping’s China watching it all, they are in the driving seat. If this capitulation is imposed, that is the big lesson to remember: there are no reliable international rules or norms any more. If you are part of the world of smaller nations, tool up, onshore what industries you can, start filling the sandbags. Because history is back, and our enemies are coming, one day, for us."
Something else to chew on (By David Runciman, Hon Prof of Politics, Cambridge Uni)
"For decades the Japanese health ministry has released an annual tally of citizens aged one hundred or over. This year the number of centenarians reached very nearly a hundred thousand. When the survey started in 1963, there were just 153. In 1981 there were a thousand; in 1998 ten thousand. Japan now produces more nappies for incontinent adults than for infants. There is a burgeoning industry for the cleaning and fumigating of apartments in which elderly Japanese citizens have died and been left undiscovered for weeks, months or years."
Thinking about it, helps to explain Putin. Russia, like Japan, is stuffed demographically. Last chance to do something, especially in face of possible German rearmament. Those Baltic States are going to just hand themselves over by themselves. And you can't easily unwind a war economy.
If we want to talk long term demographics, it's not looking good for China thanks to the one-child policy. The median age in both China and Russia is 40.3 years, in the UK it's 40.1, in the US it's 38.5, in Brazil 34.8, in India 28.8 and in Nigeria 18.1 years. The future global superpowers are likely India and Nigeria - the dawning of the equatorial age perhaps though will climate age promote more northward and southward migration - remember, 85% of humanity lives north of the equator and only 15% south.
Peter Zeihan has been predicting Chinese collapse for some time. Here's 10 minutes on it from a couple of years ago. Worth a watch. Maybe it's all cracking underneath the inscrutable Xi veneer. And, actually, how many Chinese are there?
Indeed - I don't have his knowledge but my sense is after decades of impressive (if officially inflated) growth numbers, China is going to hit the same problems as any other developed economy in terms of demographics and the expectations of the population. How the political/economic system copes with these changes over the next few decades I've no clue.
Having watched one of Peter Zeihan's videos on China - which I thought was quite interesting - youtube is now bombarding me with videos on the travails and imminent collapse of China (and also, oddly, on the iniquities of the Chinese dating scene). It's fascinating that this sub-genre exists. They range from sober and plausible to so wild that it is hard to take them seriously. I also get the odd channel presented by a westerner which is so wildly partisan in favour of how well-governed China is, and how feeble the west is, that they are clearly funded by the CCP. Which in turn raises some questions about the "China is about to collapse" videos. That said, I was very much in the 'China is on borrowed time' camp to start with. I quite enjoy the 'China's population is about one third of official figures' conspiracy, but that doesn't mean I believe it. I do suspect the population is less than claimed - but surely not THAT much less?
A chap I worked with, went into the ex-Soviet SRs to learn about their oil industry in the early 90s. Learnt Soviet accounting methods, spoke the language.
The whole industry had been run on a pyramid of lies.
He also looked into other things - as a side thing he found out how and why the population figures had got cooked. The USSR was obsessed with manpower - your giant conscript army is only as good as the number of conscripts. So the the classic Soviet thing happened - the managers lied to the mangers above them, who in turn... all the way to the politburo. So the people running the country had ridiculously fake numbers.
In that case, the local party guys were reporting the number of babies born. And adding on the number of late term abortions....
I hadn't considered whether this might also be true of Russia, but this is all too plausible, particularly given what we've found out about tge gap between claimed and real Russian military capability. The population of Russia might be significantly smaller than 140m.
One reason that the CIA consistently overestimated the East Blok was that they spent all their efforts at stealing information from the top. Which was the biggest pile of bullshit.
"Prepare next for the great sell: a wave of propaganda rolling soon in our direction, praising Trump, the inspired bringer of peace, brushing aside petty concerns about geography, missiles and tank divisions. Brace for the reassuring, conciliatory speech from a smiling Putin, so eagerly quoted by diminished Western leaders. We will be fed heartwarming stories of returning villagers and of churches being restored; a new age of peace and amity with Russia will be proclaimed. Believe not a word.
"Maybe, in the end, this was all inevitable. Small states can defeat great ones – Vietnam, Afghanistan – but they are the exception, and they are rarely neighbours of their greater enemies. Mostly, might prevails. This is what Donald Trump thinks, and this is what Vladimir Putin thinks. And with the vast power of Xi Jinping’s China watching it all, they are in the driving seat. If this capitulation is imposed, that is the big lesson to remember: there are no reliable international rules or norms any more. If you are part of the world of smaller nations, tool up, onshore what industries you can, start filling the sandbags. Because history is back, and our enemies are coming, one day, for us."
Something else to chew on (By David Runciman, Hon Prof of Politics, Cambridge Uni)
"For decades the Japanese health ministry has released an annual tally of citizens aged one hundred or over. This year the number of centenarians reached very nearly a hundred thousand. When the survey started in 1963, there were just 153. In 1981 there were a thousand; in 1998 ten thousand. Japan now produces more nappies for incontinent adults than for infants. There is a burgeoning industry for the cleaning and fumigating of apartments in which elderly Japanese citizens have died and been left undiscovered for weeks, months or years."
Thinking about it, helps to explain Putin. Russia, like Japan, is stuffed demographically. Last chance to do something, especially in face of possible German rearmament. Those Baltic States are going to just hand themselves over by themselves. And you can't easily unwind a war economy.
If we want to talk long term demographics, it's not looking good for China thanks to the one-child policy. The median age in both China and Russia is 40.3 years, in the UK it's 40.1, in the US it's 38.5, in Brazil 34.8, in India 28.8 and in Nigeria 18.1 years. The future global superpowers are likely India and Nigeria - the dawning of the equatorial age perhaps though will climate age promote more northward and southward migration - remember, 85% of humanity lives north of the equator and only 15% south.
India maybe not Nigeria though its gdp will grow its gdp per capita won’t as much, it also doesn’t have the size of military India has not yet nukes
I also have my doubts about the accuracy of Nigerian population data. There may be nowhere near as many of them as claimed
Really? Why? I would have thought if anything they were likely to be undercounting.
Because - and I can't remember the details, so I go no stronger than 'have my doubts' - as I understand it, local bureaucrats are rewarded if their localities show population growth. That, to me, is asking for trouble. As I say, I may have massively misremembered the details.
Wasn't there a suggestion that the COVID stats revealed a bit of a lie about African population stats?
WSJ with a devastating, intensely-sourced article demonstrating how Trump, Kushner, and Witkoff tried to sellout Ukraine, the U.S., and Europe for money. It's so bad one of our European allies shared evidence of the planned business deals. A must-read. https://x.com/hissgoescobra/status/1994607456979489248
I’m shocked.
Shocked, I tell you.
I’m surprised Poland is willing to let Ukraine crumble. If Russia gets their claws into the Ukrainian political system again then it’s a threat to Poland from the south.
Poland is rearming like crazy. The winged hussars will ride again if Russia tries anything on.
The Gaza Party is what it should call itself. It's the only thing they really care about and it would at least have the virtue of honesty.
I felt a little guilty about referring to the Independent Alliance gang who joined as the Gaza bros, but the BBC description of them led with that point so I felt less bad about it.
"By contrast, Kemi Badenoch’s combative response to the Budget in Parliament appears to have resonated with some voters. Her approval rating rose three points, reaching net -14—her best score this year and level with Nigel Farage.
On the question of who would make the best Prime Minister:
Starmer’s lead over Badenoch narrows to 2 points Nearly half (48%) prefer none of the above Farage leads Starmer by 6 points When asked which party would better handle the economy:
25% say the Conservatives under Badenoch 19% choose Labour under Starmer 42% say neither
This gives the Conservatives a 6-point lead on economic management."
It's not impossible that Kemi overtakes Farage and Labour on best PM and on economic management.
If Farage can't shake the smell that's currently around him then it's not impossible that in 3.5 years time (an eternity) that the Conservatives come top of the polls, probably in the high 20s.
"Prepare next for the great sell: a wave of propaganda rolling soon in our direction, praising Trump, the inspired bringer of peace, brushing aside petty concerns about geography, missiles and tank divisions. Brace for the reassuring, conciliatory speech from a smiling Putin, so eagerly quoted by diminished Western leaders. We will be fed heartwarming stories of returning villagers and of churches being restored; a new age of peace and amity with Russia will be proclaimed. Believe not a word.
"Maybe, in the end, this was all inevitable. Small states can defeat great ones – Vietnam, Afghanistan – but they are the exception, and they are rarely neighbours of their greater enemies. Mostly, might prevails. This is what Donald Trump thinks, and this is what Vladimir Putin thinks. And with the vast power of Xi Jinping’s China watching it all, they are in the driving seat. If this capitulation is imposed, that is the big lesson to remember: there are no reliable international rules or norms any more. If you are part of the world of smaller nations, tool up, onshore what industries you can, start filling the sandbags. Because history is back, and our enemies are coming, one day, for us."
Something else to chew on (By David Runciman, Hon Prof of Politics, Cambridge Uni)
"For decades the Japanese health ministry has released an annual tally of citizens aged one hundred or over. This year the number of centenarians reached very nearly a hundred thousand. When the survey started in 1963, there were just 153. In 1981 there were a thousand; in 1998 ten thousand. Japan now produces more nappies for incontinent adults than for infants. There is a burgeoning industry for the cleaning and fumigating of apartments in which elderly Japanese citizens have died and been left undiscovered for weeks, months or years."
Thinking about it, helps to explain Putin. Russia, like Japan, is stuffed demographically. Last chance to do something, especially in face of possible German rearmament. Those Baltic States are going to just hand themselves over by themselves. And you can't easily unwind a war economy.
If we want to talk long term demographics, it's not looking good for China thanks to the one-child policy. The median age in both China and Russia is 40.3 years, in the UK it's 40.1, in the US it's 38.5, in Brazil 34.8, in India 28.8 and in Nigeria 18.1 years. The future global superpowers are likely India and Nigeria - the dawning of the equatorial age perhaps though will climate age promote more northward and southward migration - remember, 85% of humanity lives north of the equator and only 15% south.
India maybe not Nigeria though its gdp will grow its gdp per capita won’t as much, it also doesn’t have the size of military India has not yet nukes
I also have my doubts about the accuracy of Nigerian population data. There may be nowhere near as many of them as claimed
Really? Why? I would have thought if anything they were likely to be undercounting.
Because - and I can't remember the details, so I go no stronger than 'have my doubts' - as I understand it, local bureaucrats are rewarded if their localities show population growth. That, to me, is asking for trouble. As I say, I may have massively misremembered the details.
I base most of my opinions on hazily remembered things I may or may not have seen or read some time ago.
Unfortunately I think most people in power do as well.
"Prepare next for the great sell: a wave of propaganda rolling soon in our direction, praising Trump, the inspired bringer of peace, brushing aside petty concerns about geography, missiles and tank divisions. Brace for the reassuring, conciliatory speech from a smiling Putin, so eagerly quoted by diminished Western leaders. We will be fed heartwarming stories of returning villagers and of churches being restored; a new age of peace and amity with Russia will be proclaimed. Believe not a word.
"Maybe, in the end, this was all inevitable. Small states can defeat great ones – Vietnam, Afghanistan – but they are the exception, and they are rarely neighbours of their greater enemies. Mostly, might prevails. This is what Donald Trump thinks, and this is what Vladimir Putin thinks. And with the vast power of Xi Jinping’s China watching it all, they are in the driving seat. If this capitulation is imposed, that is the big lesson to remember: there are no reliable international rules or norms any more. If you are part of the world of smaller nations, tool up, onshore what industries you can, start filling the sandbags. Because history is back, and our enemies are coming, one day, for us."
Something else to chew on (By David Runciman, Hon Prof of Politics, Cambridge Uni)
"For decades the Japanese health ministry has released an annual tally of citizens aged one hundred or over. This year the number of centenarians reached very nearly a hundred thousand. When the survey started in 1963, there were just 153. In 1981 there were a thousand; in 1998 ten thousand. Japan now produces more nappies for incontinent adults than for infants. There is a burgeoning industry for the cleaning and fumigating of apartments in which elderly Japanese citizens have died and been left undiscovered for weeks, months or years."
Thinking about it, helps to explain Putin. Russia, like Japan, is stuffed demographically. Last chance to do something, especially in face of possible German rearmament. Those Baltic States are going to just hand themselves over by themselves. And you can't easily unwind a war economy.
If we want to talk long term demographics, it's not looking good for China thanks to the one-child policy. The median age in both China and Russia is 40.3 years, in the UK it's 40.1, in the US it's 38.5, in Brazil 34.8, in India 28.8 and in Nigeria 18.1 years. The future global superpowers are likely India and Nigeria - the dawning of the equatorial age perhaps though will climate age promote more northward and southward migration - remember, 85% of humanity lives north of the equator and only 15% south.
Peter Zeihan has been predicting Chinese collapse for some time. Here's 10 minutes on it from a couple of years ago. Worth a watch. Maybe it's all cracking underneath the inscrutable Xi veneer. And, actually, how many Chinese are there?
Indeed - I don't have his knowledge but my sense is after decades of impressive (if officially inflated) growth numbers, China is going to hit the same problems as any other developed economy in terms of demographics and the expectations of the population. How the political/economic system copes with these changes over the next few decades I've no clue.
Having watched one of Peter Zeihan's videos on China - which I thought was quite interesting - youtube is now bombarding me with videos on the travails and imminent collapse of China (and also, oddly, on the iniquities of the Chinese dating scene). It's fascinating that this sub-genre exists. They range from sober and plausible to so wild that it is hard to take them seriously. I also get the odd channel presented by a westerner which is so wildly partisan in favour of how well-governed China is, and how feeble the west is, that they are clearly funded by the CCP. Which in turn raises some questions about the "China is about to collapse" videos. That said, I was very much in the 'China is on borrowed time' camp to start with. I quite enjoy the 'China's population is about one third of official figures' conspiracy, but that doesn't mean I believe it. I do suspect the population is less than claimed - but surely not THAT much less?
A chap I worked with, went into the ex-Soviet SRs to learn about their oil industry in the early 90s. Learnt Soviet accounting methods, spoke the language.
The whole industry had been run on a pyramid of lies.
He also looked into other things - as a side thing he found out how and why the population figures had got cooked. The USSR was obsessed with manpower - your giant conscript army is only as good as the number of conscripts. So the the classic Soviet thing happened - the managers lied to the mangers above them, who in turn... all the way to the politburo. So the people running the country had ridiculously fake numbers.
In that case, the local party guys were reporting the number of babies born. And adding on the number of late term abortions....
I hadn't considered whether this might also be true of Russia, but this is all too plausible, particularly given what we've found out about tge gap between claimed and real Russian military capability. The population of Russia might be significantly smaller than 140m.
Yes, and its leader might actually be smaller than 1.4m. Has anybody actually measured him?
Maybe that's the reason he sits so far away at the end of the table.
WSJ with a devastating, intensely-sourced article demonstrating how Trump, Kushner, and Witkoff tried to sellout Ukraine, the U.S., and Europe for money. It's so bad one of our European allies shared evidence of the planned business deals. A must-read. https://x.com/hissgoescobra/status/1994607456979489248
I’m shocked.
Shocked, I tell you.
Yeah, me too.
Thing is, though, that we're approaching a point of no return. We know we're being betrayed, but will we do anything to resist it ?
If Sultana joins Polanski then Jez may as well go back to his allotment.
It's over.
Does Polanski want every fruit and nut to join?
Anyone who’ll believe that he can hypnotise some voluptuous financial figures
While everyone in Whitehall and surroundings is focussed on Sun story of breast enlargements the Greens are marching up the polls.
Labour may well be facing a once in a century wipe out.
The next election could be Reform v Green.
Which would be utterly depressing.
In one universe, it could be Reform as the left wing option with Union support, and Tories as the right wing option. That would be a country that would prosper.
Not this one
The direction of travel is for Labour Tory crossover very soon. That will make the Tories and Reform the top 2 parties.
Yeah but that's not the same thing. I am vaguely on the left and I would not ever vote for Reform.
If Sultana joins Polanski then Jez may as well go back to his allotment.
It's over.
Does Polanski want every fruit and nut to join?
Anyone who’ll believe that he can hypnotise some voluptuous financial figures
While everyone in Whitehall and surroundings is focussed on Sun story of breast enlargements the Greens are marching up the polls.
Labour may well be facing a once in a century wipe out.
The next election could be Reform v Green.
Which would be utterly depressing.
In one universe, it could be Reform as the left wing option with Union support, and Tories as the right wing option. That would be a country that would prosper.
Not this one
The direction of travel is for Labour Tory crossover very soon. That will make the Tories and Reform the top 2 parties.
Yeah but that's not the same thing. I am vaguely on the left and I would not ever vote for Reform.
Clearly Zara's move is unhelpful and will dominate the reports in the media. That said, I've been watching most of the conference online (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-755kRtHWdw) and it's overwhelmingly polite and friendly - Lee's Harpin's description of "chaos" is just silly.
Your Party is a very silly name. It's lazy. We are whatever 'you' want us to be.
They should say what they are, and give people something to rally to.
Possibly the issue is that there's not really anything there they think people will want to rally to.
Having quite liked Your Party as a working title I think they need a new name, mainly to move on from the current shitshow but also because it sounds a bit daft in interviews.
"Prepare next for the great sell: a wave of propaganda rolling soon in our direction, praising Trump, the inspired bringer of peace, brushing aside petty concerns about geography, missiles and tank divisions. Brace for the reassuring, conciliatory speech from a smiling Putin, so eagerly quoted by diminished Western leaders. We will be fed heartwarming stories of returning villagers and of churches being restored; a new age of peace and amity with Russia will be proclaimed. Believe not a word.
"Maybe, in the end, this was all inevitable. Small states can defeat great ones – Vietnam, Afghanistan – but they are the exception, and they are rarely neighbours of their greater enemies. Mostly, might prevails. This is what Donald Trump thinks, and this is what Vladimir Putin thinks. And with the vast power of Xi Jinping’s China watching it all, they are in the driving seat. If this capitulation is imposed, that is the big lesson to remember: there are no reliable international rules or norms any more. If you are part of the world of smaller nations, tool up, onshore what industries you can, start filling the sandbags. Because history is back, and our enemies are coming, one day, for us."
Something else to chew on (By David Runciman, Hon Prof of Politics, Cambridge Uni)
"For decades the Japanese health ministry has released an annual tally of citizens aged one hundred or over. This year the number of centenarians reached very nearly a hundred thousand. When the survey started in 1963, there were just 153. In 1981 there were a thousand; in 1998 ten thousand. Japan now produces more nappies for incontinent adults than for infants. There is a burgeoning industry for the cleaning and fumigating of apartments in which elderly Japanese citizens have died and been left undiscovered for weeks, months or years."
Thinking about it, helps to explain Putin. Russia, like Japan, is stuffed demographically. Last chance to do something, especially in face of possible German rearmament. Those Baltic States are going to just hand themselves over by themselves. And you can't easily unwind a war economy.
If we want to talk long term demographics, it's not looking good for China thanks to the one-child policy. The median age in both China and Russia is 40.3 years, in the UK it's 40.1, in the US it's 38.5, in Brazil 34.8, in India 28.8 and in Nigeria 18.1 years. The future global superpowers are likely India and Nigeria - the dawning of the equatorial age perhaps though will climate age promote more northward and southward migration - remember, 85% of humanity lives north of the equator and only 15% south.
Peter Zeihan has been predicting Chinese collapse for some time. Here's 10 minutes on it from a couple of years ago. Worth a watch. Maybe it's all cracking underneath the inscrutable Xi veneer. And, actually, how many Chinese are there?
Indeed - I don't have his knowledge but my sense is after decades of impressive (if officially inflated) growth numbers, China is going to hit the same problems as any other developed economy in terms of demographics and the expectations of the population. How the political/economic system copes with these changes over the next few decades I've no clue.
Having watched one of Peter Zeihan's videos on China - which I thought was quite interesting - youtube is now bombarding me with videos on the travails and imminent collapse of China (and also, oddly, on the iniquities of the Chinese dating scene). It's fascinating that this sub-genre exists. They range from sober and plausible to so wild that it is hard to take them seriously. I also get the odd channel presented by a westerner which is so wildly partisan in favour of how well-governed China is, and how feeble the west is, that they are clearly funded by the CCP. Which in turn raises some questions about the "China is about to collapse" videos. That said, I was very much in the 'China is on borrowed time' camp to start with. I quite enjoy the 'China's population is about one third of official figures' conspiracy, but that doesn't mean I believe it. I do suspect the population is less than claimed - but surely not THAT much less?
A chap I worked with, went into the ex-Soviet SRs to learn about their oil industry in the early 90s. Learnt Soviet accounting methods, spoke the language.
The whole industry had been run on a pyramid of lies.
He also looked into other things - as a side thing he found out how and why the population figures had got cooked. The USSR was obsessed with manpower - your giant conscript army is only as good as the number of conscripts. So the the classic Soviet thing happened - the managers lied to the mangers above them, who in turn... all the way to the politburo. So the people running the country had ridiculously fake numbers.
In that case, the local party guys were reporting the number of babies born. And adding on the number of late term abortions....
I hadn't considered whether this might also be true of Russia, but this is all too plausible, particularly given what we've found out about tge gap between claimed and real Russian military capability. The population of Russia might be significantly smaller than 140m.
Wikipedia reckons 144 million (2025 estimate, exc. occupied areas).
If Sultana joins Polanski then Jez may as well go back to his allotment.
It's over.
Does Polanski want every fruit and nut to join?
Anyone who’ll believe that he can hypnotise some voluptuous financial figures
While everyone in Whitehall and surroundings is focussed on Sun story of breast enlargements the Greens are marching up the polls.
Labour may well be facing a once in a century wipe out.
The next election could be Reform v Green.
Which would be utterly depressing.
In one universe, it could be Reform as the left wing option with Union support, and Tories as the right wing option. That would be a country that would prosper.
Not this one
The direction of travel is for Labour Tory crossover very soon. That will make the Tories and Reform the top 2 parties.
Yeah but that's not the same thing. I am vaguely on the left and I would not ever vote for Reform.
Oh well that's final then.
You're the one with a "left wing Reform" fantasy. Even if the Tories and Reform are the top two parties we're looking at a European-style rainbow party result regardless.
"Prepare next for the great sell: a wave of propaganda rolling soon in our direction, praising Trump, the inspired bringer of peace, brushing aside petty concerns about geography, missiles and tank divisions. Brace for the reassuring, conciliatory speech from a smiling Putin, so eagerly quoted by diminished Western leaders. We will be fed heartwarming stories of returning villagers and of churches being restored; a new age of peace and amity with Russia will be proclaimed. Believe not a word.
"Maybe, in the end, this was all inevitable. Small states can defeat great ones – Vietnam, Afghanistan – but they are the exception, and they are rarely neighbours of their greater enemies. Mostly, might prevails. This is what Donald Trump thinks, and this is what Vladimir Putin thinks. And with the vast power of Xi Jinping’s China watching it all, they are in the driving seat. If this capitulation is imposed, that is the big lesson to remember: there are no reliable international rules or norms any more. If you are part of the world of smaller nations, tool up, onshore what industries you can, start filling the sandbags. Because history is back, and our enemies are coming, one day, for us."
Something else to chew on (By David Runciman, Hon Prof of Politics, Cambridge Uni)
"For decades the Japanese health ministry has released an annual tally of citizens aged one hundred or over. This year the number of centenarians reached very nearly a hundred thousand. When the survey started in 1963, there were just 153. In 1981 there were a thousand; in 1998 ten thousand. Japan now produces more nappies for incontinent adults than for infants. There is a burgeoning industry for the cleaning and fumigating of apartments in which elderly Japanese citizens have died and been left undiscovered for weeks, months or years."
Thinking about it, helps to explain Putin. Russia, like Japan, is stuffed demographically. Last chance to do something, especially in face of possible German rearmament. Those Baltic States are going to just hand themselves over by themselves. And you can't easily unwind a war economy.
If we want to talk long term demographics, it's not looking good for China thanks to the one-child policy. The median age in both China and Russia is 40.3 years, in the UK it's 40.1, in the US it's 38.5, in Brazil 34.8, in India 28.8 and in Nigeria 18.1 years. The future global superpowers are likely India and Nigeria - the dawning of the equatorial age perhaps though will climate age promote more northward and southward migration - remember, 85% of humanity lives north of the equator and only 15% south.
Peter Zeihan has been predicting Chinese collapse for some time. Here's 10 minutes on it from a couple of years ago. Worth a watch. Maybe it's all cracking underneath the inscrutable Xi veneer. And, actually, how many Chinese are there?
Indeed - I don't have his knowledge but my sense is after decades of impressive (if officially inflated) growth numbers, China is going to hit the same problems as any other developed economy in terms of demographics and the expectations of the population. How the political/economic system copes with these changes over the next few decades I've no clue.
Having watched one of Peter Zeihan's videos on China - which I thought was quite interesting - youtube is now bombarding me with videos on the travails and imminent collapse of China (and also, oddly, on the iniquities of the Chinese dating scene). It's fascinating that this sub-genre exists. They range from sober and plausible to so wild that it is hard to take them seriously. I also get the odd channel presented by a westerner which is so wildly partisan in favour of how well-governed China is, and how feeble the west is, that they are clearly funded by the CCP. Which in turn raises some questions about the "China is about to collapse" videos. That said, I was very much in the 'China is on borrowed time' camp to start with. I quite enjoy the 'China's population is about one third of official figures' conspiracy, but that doesn't mean I believe it. I do suspect the population is less than claimed - but surely not THAT much less?
A chap I worked with, went into the ex-Soviet SRs to learn about their oil industry in the early 90s. Learnt Soviet accounting methods, spoke the language.
The whole industry had been run on a pyramid of lies.
He also looked into other things - as a side thing he found out how and why the population figures had got cooked. The USSR was obsessed with manpower - your giant conscript army is only as good as the number of conscripts. So the the classic Soviet thing happened - the managers lied to the mangers above them, who in turn... all the way to the politburo. So the people running the country had ridiculously fake numbers.
In that case, the local party guys were reporting the number of babies born. And adding on the number of late term abortions....
I hadn't considered whether this might also be true of Russia, but this is all too plausible, particularly given what we've found out about tge gap between claimed and real Russian military capability. The population of Russia might be significantly smaller than 140m.
Wikipedia reckons 144 million (2025 estimate, exc. occupied areas).
Well yes but that's the official figure. My point is that reality may be significantly less.
"By contrast, Kemi Badenoch’s combative response to the Budget in Parliament appears to have resonated with some voters. Her approval rating rose three points, reaching net -14—her best score this year and level with Nigel Farage.
On the question of who would make the best Prime Minister:
Starmer’s lead over Badenoch narrows to 2 points Nearly half (48%) prefer none of the above Farage leads Starmer by 6 points When asked which party would better handle the economy:
25% say the Conservatives under Badenoch 19% choose Labour under Starmer 42% say neither
This gives the Conservatives a 6-point lead on economic management."
It's not impossible that Kemi overtakes Farage and Labour on best PM and on economic management.
If Farage can't shake the smell that's currently around him then it's not impossible that in 3.5 years time (an eternity) that the Conservatives come top of the polls, probably in the high 20s.
The comeback is on. Lib Dems will go into complete meltdown over the next few months as the Tories recover in the polls. Once again it's interesting that the strongest support for this shit budget comes from them rather than Labour supporters.
I can see it all over social media, the memes are "Rishi we forgive you" and stuff along those lines.
Even my lefty friends are saying it, maybe it wasn't so bad with Rishi and the whole "punish the Tories" thing was completely overdone by the media. I think Labour have broken something that they can't repair after raising tax on workers to pay for benefits, it's reputational damage they can't escape. It's probably as terminal for them as Liz Truss was for the Tory party.
Clearly Zara's move is unhelpful and will dominate the reports in the media. That said, I've been watching most of the conference online (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-755kRtHWdw) and it's overwhelmingly polite and friendly - Lee's Harpin's description of "chaos" is just silly.
Your Party is a very silly name. It's lazy. We are whatever 'you' want us to be.
They should say what they are, and give people something to rally to.
Possibly the issue is that there's not really anything there they think people will want to rally to.
Having quite liked Your Party as a working title I think they need a new name, mainly to move on from the current shitshow but also because it sounds a bit daft in interviews.
Clearly Zara's move is unhelpful and will dominate the reports in the media. That said, I've been watching most of the conference online (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-755kRtHWdw) and it's overwhelmingly polite and friendly - Lee's Harpin's description of "chaos" is just silly.
Your Party is a very silly name. It's lazy. We are whatever 'you' want us to be.
They should say what they are, and give people something to rally to.
Possibly the issue is that there's not really anything there they think people will want to rally to.
Having quite liked Your Party as a working title I think they need a new name, mainly to move on from the current shitshow but also because it sounds a bit daft in interviews.
"By contrast, Kemi Badenoch’s combative response to the Budget in Parliament appears to have resonated with some voters. Her approval rating rose three points, reaching net -14—her best score this year and level with Nigel Farage.
On the question of who would make the best Prime Minister:
Starmer’s lead over Badenoch narrows to 2 points Nearly half (48%) prefer none of the above Farage leads Starmer by 6 points When asked which party would better handle the economy:
25% say the Conservatives under Badenoch 19% choose Labour under Starmer 42% say neither
This gives the Conservatives a 6-point lead on economic management."
It's not impossible that Kemi overtakes Farage and Labour on best PM and on economic management.
If Farage can't shake the smell that's currently around him then it's not impossible that in 3.5 years time (an eternity) that the Conservatives come top of the polls, probably in the high 20s.
The comeback is on. Lib Dems will go into complete meltdown over the next few months as the Tories recover in the polls. Once again it's interesting that the strongest support for this shit budget comes from them rather than Labour supporters.
I can see it all over social media, the memes are "Rishi we forgive you" and stuff along those lines.
Even my lefty friends are saying it, maybe it wasn't so bad with Rishi and the whole "punish the Tories" thing was completely overdone by the media. I think Labour have broken something that they can't repair after raising tax on workers to pay for benefits, it's reputational damage they can't escape. It's probably as terminal for them as Liz Truss was for the Tory party.
FWIW, I haven't seen a single "Rishi we forgive you" message anywhere on social media. Appreciate we live in bubbles but I think this is a healthy dose of confirmation bias. I've even dug around for this meme on twitter and can't see anything at all.
I think Labour have basically got away with this budget; the welfare thing is toxic but people don't tend to pile in too much when there is a child poverty defence. The main frustration is that they haven't actually done anything, so left-leaning voters will continue to look for alternatives. The right already hate Labour with a passion, so nothing changes there.
"By contrast, Kemi Badenoch’s combative response to the Budget in Parliament appears to have resonated with some voters. Her approval rating rose three points, reaching net -14—her best score this year and level with Nigel Farage.
On the question of who would make the best Prime Minister:
Starmer’s lead over Badenoch narrows to 2 points Nearly half (48%) prefer none of the above Farage leads Starmer by 6 points When asked which party would better handle the economy:
25% say the Conservatives under Badenoch 19% choose Labour under Starmer 42% say neither
This gives the Conservatives a 6-point lead on economic management."
It's not impossible that Kemi overtakes Farage and Labour on best PM and on economic management.
If Farage can't shake the smell that's currently around him then it's not impossible that in 3.5 years time (an eternity) that the Conservatives come top of the polls, probably in the high 20s.
The comeback is on. Lib Dems will go into complete meltdown over the next few months as the Tories recover in the polls. Once again it's interesting that the strongest support for this shit budget comes from them rather than Labour supporters.
I can see it all over social media, the memes are "Rishi we forgive you" and stuff along those lines.
Even my lefty friends are saying it, maybe it wasn't so bad with Rishi and the whole "punish the Tories" thing was completely overdone by the media. I think Labour have broken something that they can't repair after raising tax on workers to pay for benefits, it's reputational damage they can't escape. It's probably as terminal for them as Liz Truss was for the Tory party.
All mine are saying they're almost as crap as the last lot.
"Prepare next for the great sell: a wave of propaganda rolling soon in our direction, praising Trump, the inspired bringer of peace, brushing aside petty concerns about geography, missiles and tank divisions. Brace for the reassuring, conciliatory speech from a smiling Putin, so eagerly quoted by diminished Western leaders. We will be fed heartwarming stories of returning villagers and of churches being restored; a new age of peace and amity with Russia will be proclaimed. Believe not a word.
"Maybe, in the end, this was all inevitable. Small states can defeat great ones – Vietnam, Afghanistan – but they are the exception, and they are rarely neighbours of their greater enemies. Mostly, might prevails. This is what Donald Trump thinks, and this is what Vladimir Putin thinks. And with the vast power of Xi Jinping’s China watching it all, they are in the driving seat. If this capitulation is imposed, that is the big lesson to remember: there are no reliable international rules or norms any more. If you are part of the world of smaller nations, tool up, onshore what industries you can, start filling the sandbags. Because history is back, and our enemies are coming, one day, for us."
Something else to chew on (By David Runciman, Hon Prof of Politics, Cambridge Uni)
"For decades the Japanese health ministry has released an annual tally of citizens aged one hundred or over. This year the number of centenarians reached very nearly a hundred thousand. When the survey started in 1963, there were just 153. In 1981 there were a thousand; in 1998 ten thousand. Japan now produces more nappies for incontinent adults than for infants. There is a burgeoning industry for the cleaning and fumigating of apartments in which elderly Japanese citizens have died and been left undiscovered for weeks, months or years."
Thinking about it, helps to explain Putin. Russia, like Japan, is stuffed demographically. Last chance to do something, especially in face of possible German rearmament. Those Baltic States are going to just hand themselves over by themselves. And you can't easily unwind a war economy.
If we want to talk long term demographics, it's not looking good for China thanks to the one-child policy. The median age in both China and Russia is 40.3 years, in the UK it's 40.1, in the US it's 38.5, in Brazil 34.8, in India 28.8 and in Nigeria 18.1 years. The future global superpowers are likely India and Nigeria - the dawning of the equatorial age perhaps though will climate age promote more northward and southward migration - remember, 85% of humanity lives north of the equator and only 15% south.
India maybe not Nigeria though its gdp will grow its gdp per capita won’t as much, it also doesn’t have the size of military India has not yet nukes
I also have my doubts about the accuracy of Nigerian population data. There may be nowhere near as many of them as claimed
Really? Why? I would have thought if anything they were likely to be undercounting.
Because - and I can't remember the details, so I go no stronger than 'have my doubts' - as I understand it, local bureaucrats are rewarded if their localities show population growth. That, to me, is asking for trouble. As I say, I may have massively misremembered the details.
I base most of my opinions on hazily remembered things I may or may not have seen or read some time ago.
Unfortunately I think most people in power do as well.
After all my years in education I can only describe that as a very optimistic assessment of their information level.
"By contrast, Kemi Badenoch’s combative response to the Budget in Parliament appears to have resonated with some voters. Her approval rating rose three points, reaching net -14—her best score this year and level with Nigel Farage.
On the question of who would make the best Prime Minister:
Starmer’s lead over Badenoch narrows to 2 points Nearly half (48%) prefer none of the above Farage leads Starmer by 6 points When asked which party would better handle the economy:
25% say the Conservatives under Badenoch 19% choose Labour under Starmer 42% say neither
This gives the Conservatives a 6-point lead on economic management."
It's not impossible that Kemi overtakes Farage and Labour on best PM and on economic management.
If Farage can't shake the smell that's currently around him then it's not impossible that in 3.5 years time (an eternity) that the Conservatives come top of the polls, probably in the high 20s.
I think you could be right. I want to back the Tories to do well. As it is I have laid Reform most seats at 2.06
"By contrast, Kemi Badenoch’s combative response to the Budget in Parliament appears to have resonated with some voters. Her approval rating rose three points, reaching net -14—her best score this year and level with Nigel Farage.
On the question of who would make the best Prime Minister:
Starmer’s lead over Badenoch narrows to 2 points Nearly half (48%) prefer none of the above Farage leads Starmer by 6 points When asked which party would better handle the economy:
25% say the Conservatives under Badenoch 19% choose Labour under Starmer 42% say neither
This gives the Conservatives a 6-point lead on economic management."
It's not impossible that Kemi overtakes Farage and Labour on best PM and on economic management.
If Farage can't shake the smell that's currently around him then it's not impossible that in 3.5 years time (an eternity) that the Conservatives come top of the polls, probably in the high 20s.
The comeback is on. Lib Dems will go into complete meltdown over the next few months as the Tories recover in the polls. Once again it's interesting that the strongest support for this shit budget comes from them rather than Labour supporters.
I can see it all over social media, the memes are "Rishi we forgive you" and stuff along those lines.
Even my lefty friends are saying it, maybe it wasn't so bad with Rishi and the whole "punish the Tories" thing was completely overdone by the media. I think Labour have broken something that they can't repair after raising tax on workers to pay for benefits, it's reputational damage they can't escape. It's probably as terminal for them as Liz Truss was for the Tory party.
Clearly Zara's move is unhelpful and will dominate the reports in the media. That said, I've been watching most of the conference online (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-755kRtHWdw) and it's overwhelmingly polite and friendly - Lee's Harpin's description of "chaos" is just silly.
Your Party is a very silly name. It's lazy. We are whatever 'you' want us to be.
They should say what they are, and give people something to rally to.
Possibly the issue is that there's not really anything there they think people will want to rally to.
Having quite liked Your Party as a working title I think they need a new name, mainly to move on from the current shitshow but also because it sounds a bit daft in interviews.
It's like the Spurs defence had forgotten the keeper was miles away from the goal. There must be a curse on this football team.
Watched it again and this is insane. You 1) absolutely smash into a tackle, take the yellow, to stop him pinging it in 2) close it down has hard as possible 3) get at least one CB on the line.
"By contrast, Kemi Badenoch’s combative response to the Budget in Parliament appears to have resonated with some voters. Her approval rating rose three points, reaching net -14—her best score this year and level with Nigel Farage.
On the question of who would make the best Prime Minister:
Starmer’s lead over Badenoch narrows to 2 points Nearly half (48%) prefer none of the above Farage leads Starmer by 6 points When asked which party would better handle the economy:
25% say the Conservatives under Badenoch 19% choose Labour under Starmer 42% say neither
This gives the Conservatives a 6-point lead on economic management."
It's not impossible that Kemi overtakes Farage and Labour on best PM and on economic management.
If Farage can't shake the smell that's currently around him then it's not impossible that in 3.5 years time (an eternity) that the Conservatives come top of the polls, probably in the high 20s.
The comeback is on. Lib Dems will go into complete meltdown over the next few months as the Tories recover in the polls. Once again it's interesting that the strongest support for this shit budget comes from them rather than Labour supporters.
I can see it all over social media, the memes are "Rishi we forgive you" and stuff along those lines.
Even my lefty friends are saying it, maybe it wasn't so bad with Rishi and the whole "punish the Tories" thing was completely overdone by the media. I think Labour have broken something that they can't repair after raising tax on workers to pay for benefits, it's reputational damage they can't escape. It's probably as terminal for them as Liz Truss was for the Tory party.
It's strange how this tidal wave of affection for Rishi Sunak over social media hasn't been experienced by anyone else, just you.
The budget supplementaries are horrific for Labour, it usually takes a fortnight for events to shift the VI.
FWIW I have heard from two pollsters what is really damaging Reform in the polls is stuff like this, there's this belief that Farage wants to be like America and GB News his Fox News.
His slippery non denial hasn't gone down well either.
GB News urged to cut ties with contributor accused of racism
Rightwing activist claimed Commons deputy speaker Nusrat Ghani should be barred because she was born in Pakistan
GB News is facing calls to cut ties with a regular contributor who has been accused of racism after claiming that the House of Commons deputy speaker, Nusrat Ghani, should not be allowed in the house because she was born in Pakistan.
The comments by Lucy White, a rightwing activist, have drawn criticism from across the political spectrum amid warnings that explicitly racist language is becoming increasingly normalised in British life.
White, described as a public policy expert during appearances on GB News and Rupert Murdoch’s TalkTV, said on her X account on Wednesday: “Today, the Deputy Speaker presiding over the Budget Statement in the UK House of Commons is Nus Ghani.
“Nus Ghani was born in Kashmir, Pakistan. There should not be a single person born in Pakistan in the UK House of Commons.”
"By contrast, Kemi Badenoch’s combative response to the Budget in Parliament appears to have resonated with some voters. Her approval rating rose three points, reaching net -14—her best score this year and level with Nigel Farage.
On the question of who would make the best Prime Minister:
Starmer’s lead over Badenoch narrows to 2 points Nearly half (48%) prefer none of the above Farage leads Starmer by 6 points When asked which party would better handle the economy:
25% say the Conservatives under Badenoch 19% choose Labour under Starmer 42% say neither
This gives the Conservatives a 6-point lead on economic management."
It's not impossible that Kemi overtakes Farage and Labour on best PM and on economic management.
If Farage can't shake the smell that's currently around him then it's not impossible that in 3.5 years time (an eternity) that the Conservatives come top of the polls, probably in the high 20s.
The comeback is on. Lib Dems will go into complete meltdown over the next few months as the Tories recover in the polls. Once again it's interesting that the strongest support for this shit budget comes from them rather than Labour supporters.
I can see it all over social media, the memes are "Rishi we forgive you" and stuff along those lines.
Even my lefty friends are saying it, maybe it wasn't so bad with Rishi and the whole "punish the Tories" thing was completely overdone by the media. I think Labour have broken something that they can't repair after raising tax on workers to pay for benefits, it's reputational damage they can't escape. It's probably as terminal for them as Liz Truss was for the Tory party.
FWIW, I haven't seen a single "Rishi we forgive you" message anywhere on social media. Appreciate we live in bubbles but I think this is a healthy dose of confirmation bias. I've even dug around for this meme on twitter and can't see anything at all.
I think Labour have basically got away with this budget; the welfare thing is toxic but people don't tend to pile in too much when there is a child poverty defence. The main frustration is that they haven't actually done anything, so left-leaning voters will continue to look for alternatives. The right already hate Labour with a passion, so nothing changes there.
I'm talking exclusively Instagram tbf, I don't do Twitter or facebook which are just brainrot platforms.
Believe me Labour haven't got away with this. It's their dementia tax, just not in the run up to an election. That was so bad that people almost voted for Corbyn.
The stories on benefit families haven't even started yet and eventually it will be some 7 child immigrant family getting £80k in benefits on the front pages and the constant drip of those will destroy them. There's nothing people who work hate more than people who don't and get more than them for just sitting around being layabouts. It's the same reason legal migrants are the most in favour of tough restrictions on illegal immigrants. It plays against our sense of fair play.
"By contrast, Kemi Badenoch’s combative response to the Budget in Parliament appears to have resonated with some voters. Her approval rating rose three points, reaching net -14—her best score this year and level with Nigel Farage.
On the question of who would make the best Prime Minister:
Starmer’s lead over Badenoch narrows to 2 points Nearly half (48%) prefer none of the above Farage leads Starmer by 6 points When asked which party would better handle the economy:
25% say the Conservatives under Badenoch 19% choose Labour under Starmer 42% say neither
This gives the Conservatives a 6-point lead on economic management."
It's not impossible that Kemi overtakes Farage and Labour on best PM and on economic management.
If Farage can't shake the smell that's currently around him then it's not impossible that in 3.5 years time (an eternity) that the Conservatives come top of the polls, probably in the high 20s.
The comeback is on. Lib Dems will go into complete meltdown over the next few months as the Tories recover in the polls. Once again it's interesting that the strongest support for this shit budget comes from them rather than Labour supporters.
I can see it all over social media, the memes are "Rishi we forgive you" and stuff along those lines.
Even my lefty friends are saying it, maybe it wasn't so bad with Rishi and the whole "punish the Tories" thing was completely overdone by the media. I think Labour have broken something that they can't repair after raising tax on workers to pay for benefits, it's reputational damage they can't escape. It's probably as terminal for them as Liz Truss was for the Tory party.
It's strange how this tidal wave of affection for Rishi Sunak over social media hasn't been experienced by anyone else, just you.
I think we can say of Sunak that he generally meant well. He was also not stupid.
However, he was also arrogant, timid and possessed of shockingly poor judgement of people.
The fact that Starmer is not William Pitt the Younger does not turn Sunak into Disraeli.
"By contrast, Kemi Badenoch’s combative response to the Budget in Parliament appears to have resonated with some voters. Her approval rating rose three points, reaching net -14—her best score this year and level with Nigel Farage.
On the question of who would make the best Prime Minister:
Starmer’s lead over Badenoch narrows to 2 points Nearly half (48%) prefer none of the above Farage leads Starmer by 6 points When asked which party would better handle the economy:
25% say the Conservatives under Badenoch 19% choose Labour under Starmer 42% say neither
This gives the Conservatives a 6-point lead on economic management."
It's not impossible that Kemi overtakes Farage and Labour on best PM and on economic management.
If Farage can't shake the smell that's currently around him then it's not impossible that in 3.5 years time (an eternity) that the Conservatives come top of the polls, probably in the high 20s.
The comeback is on. Lib Dems will go into complete meltdown over the next few months as the Tories recover in the polls. Once again it's interesting that the strongest support for this shit budget comes from them rather than Labour supporters.
I can see it all over social media, the memes are "Rishi we forgive you" and stuff along those lines.
Even my lefty friends are saying it, maybe it wasn't so bad with Rishi and the whole "punish the Tories" thing was completely overdone by the media. I think Labour have broken something that they can't repair after raising tax on workers to pay for benefits, it's reputational damage they can't escape. It's probably as terminal for them as Liz Truss was for the Tory party.
All this based on a 17% poll rating? 🥴
Indeed, Labour are up 2 to 21 and the Tories level on 17
The budget supplementaries are horrific for Labour, it usually takes a fortnight for events to shift the VI.
FWIW I have heard from two pollsters what is really damaging Reform in the polls is stuff like this, there's this belief that Farage wants to be like America and GB News his Fox News.
His slippery non denial hasn't gone down well either.
GB News urged to cut ties with contributor accused of racism
Rightwing activist claimed Commons deputy speaker Nusrat Ghani should be barred because she was born in Pakistan
GB News is facing calls to cut ties with a regular contributor who has been accused of racism after claiming that the House of Commons deputy speaker, Nusrat Ghani, should not be allowed in the house because she was born in Pakistan.
The comments by Lucy White, a rightwing activist, have drawn criticism from across the political spectrum amid warnings that explicitly racist language is becoming increasingly normalised in British life.
White, described as a public policy expert during appearances on GB News and Rupert Murdoch’s TalkTV, said on her X account on Wednesday: “Today, the Deputy Speaker presiding over the Budget Statement in the UK House of Commons is Nus Ghani.
“Nus Ghani was born in Kashmir, Pakistan. There should not be a single person born in Pakistan in the UK House of Commons.”
"By contrast, Kemi Badenoch’s combative response to the Budget in Parliament appears to have resonated with some voters. Her approval rating rose three points, reaching net -14—her best score this year and level with Nigel Farage.
On the question of who would make the best Prime Minister:
Starmer’s lead over Badenoch narrows to 2 points Nearly half (48%) prefer none of the above Farage leads Starmer by 6 points When asked which party would better handle the economy:
25% say the Conservatives under Badenoch 19% choose Labour under Starmer 42% say neither
This gives the Conservatives a 6-point lead on economic management."
It's not impossible that Kemi overtakes Farage and Labour on best PM and on economic management.
If Farage can't shake the smell that's currently around him then it's not impossible that in 3.5 years time (an eternity) that the Conservatives come top of the polls, probably in the high 20s.
The comeback is on. Lib Dems will go into complete meltdown over the next few months as the Tories recover in the polls. Once again it's interesting that the strongest support for this shit budget comes from them rather than Labour supporters.
I can see it all over social media, the memes are "Rishi we forgive you" and stuff along those lines.
Even my lefty friends are saying it, maybe it wasn't so bad with Rishi and the whole "punish the Tories" thing was completely overdone by the media. I think Labour have broken something that they can't repair after raising tax on workers to pay for benefits, it's reputational damage they can't escape. It's probably as terminal for them as Liz Truss was for the Tory party.
It's strange how this tidal wave of affection for Rishi Sunak over social media hasn't been experienced by anyone else, just you.
I think we can say of Sunak that he generally meant well. He was also not stupid.
However, he was also arrogant, timid and possessed of shockingly poor judgement of people.
The fact that Starmer is not William Pitt the Younger does not turn Sunak into Disraeli.
"By contrast, Kemi Badenoch’s combative response to the Budget in Parliament appears to have resonated with some voters. Her approval rating rose three points, reaching net -14—her best score this year and level with Nigel Farage.
On the question of who would make the best Prime Minister:
Starmer’s lead over Badenoch narrows to 2 points Nearly half (48%) prefer none of the above Farage leads Starmer by 6 points When asked which party would better handle the economy:
25% say the Conservatives under Badenoch 19% choose Labour under Starmer 42% say neither
This gives the Conservatives a 6-point lead on economic management."
It's not impossible that Kemi overtakes Farage and Labour on best PM and on economic management.
If Farage can't shake the smell that's currently around him then it's not impossible that in 3.5 years time (an eternity) that the Conservatives come top of the polls, probably in the high 20s.
The comeback is on. Lib Dems will go into complete meltdown over the next few months as the Tories recover in the polls. Once again it's interesting that the strongest support for this shit budget comes from them rather than Labour supporters.
I can see it all over social media, the memes are "Rishi we forgive you" and stuff along those lines.
Even my lefty friends are saying it, maybe it wasn't so bad with Rishi and the whole "punish the Tories" thing was completely overdone by the media. I think Labour have broken something that they can't repair after raising tax on workers to pay for benefits, it's reputational damage they can't escape. It's probably as terminal for them as Liz Truss was for the Tory party.
It's strange how this tidal wave of affection for Rishi Sunak over social media hasn't been experienced by anyone else, just you.
I think we can say of Sunak that he generally meant well. He was also not stupid.
However, he was also arrogant, timid and possessed of shockingly poor judgement of people.
The fact that Starmer is not William Pitt the Younger does not turn Sunak into Disraeli.
Of people and also weather.
All those moments will be lost in time, like tears in rain.
Clearly Zara's move is unhelpful and will dominate the reports in the media. That said, I've been watching most of the conference online (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-755kRtHWdw) and it's overwhelmingly polite and friendly - Lee's Harpin's description of "chaos" is just silly.
Your Party is a very silly name. It's lazy. We are whatever 'you' want us to be.
They should say what they are, and give people something to rally to.
Possibly the issue is that there's not really anything there they think people will want to rally to.
Having quite liked Your Party as a working title I think they need a new name, mainly to move on from the current shitshow but also because it sounds a bit daft in interviews.
‘So what about Your Party?’
‘You mean my party?’
‘No, YOUR PARTY.’
Etc.
It could be called Not Sultana’s Party.
Currant affairs.
A date with destiny.
A Sultana that will live in infamy.
Corbyn should extend an olive branch.
He should not be just extending it but raisin it up high
Clearly Zara's move is unhelpful and will dominate the reports in the media. That said, I've been watching most of the conference online (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-755kRtHWdw) and it's overwhelmingly polite and friendly - Lee's Harpin's description of "chaos" is just silly.
Your Party is a very silly name. It's lazy. We are whatever 'you' want us to be.
They should say what they are, and give people something to rally to.
Possibly the issue is that there's not really anything there they think people will want to rally to.
Having quite liked Your Party as a working title I think they need a new name, mainly to move on from the current shitshow but also because it sounds a bit daft in interviews.
‘So what about Your Party?’
‘You mean my party?’
‘No, YOUR PARTY.’
Etc.
It could be called Not Sultana’s Party.
Currant affairs.
A date with destiny.
A Sultana that will live in infamy.
Corbyn should extend an olive branch.
He should not be just extending it but raisin it up high
The budget supplementaries are horrific for Labour, it usually takes a fortnight for events to shift the VI.
FWIW I have heard from two pollsters what is really damaging Reform in the polls is stuff like this, there's this belief that Farage wants to be like America and GB News his Fox News.
His slippery non denial hasn't gone down well either.
GB News urged to cut ties with contributor accused of racism
Rightwing activist claimed Commons deputy speaker Nusrat Ghani should be barred because she was born in Pakistan
GB News is facing calls to cut ties with a regular contributor who has been accused of racism after claiming that the House of Commons deputy speaker, Nusrat Ghani, should not be allowed in the house because she was born in Pakistan.
The comments by Lucy White, a rightwing activist, have drawn criticism from across the political spectrum amid warnings that explicitly racist language is becoming increasingly normalised in British life.
White, described as a public policy expert during appearances on GB News and Rupert Murdoch’s TalkTV, said on her X account on Wednesday: “Today, the Deputy Speaker presiding over the Budget Statement in the UK House of Commons is Nus Ghani.
“Nus Ghani was born in Kashmir, Pakistan. There should not be a single person born in Pakistan in the UK House of Commons.”
"By contrast, Kemi Badenoch’s combative response to the Budget in Parliament appears to have resonated with some voters. Her approval rating rose three points, reaching net -14—her best score this year and level with Nigel Farage.
On the question of who would make the best Prime Minister:
Starmer’s lead over Badenoch narrows to 2 points Nearly half (48%) prefer none of the above Farage leads Starmer by 6 points When asked which party would better handle the economy:
25% say the Conservatives under Badenoch 19% choose Labour under Starmer 42% say neither
This gives the Conservatives a 6-point lead on economic management."
It's not impossible that Kemi overtakes Farage and Labour on best PM and on economic management.
If Farage can't shake the smell that's currently around him then it's not impossible that in 3.5 years time (an eternity) that the Conservatives come top of the polls, probably in the high 20s.
The comeback is on. Lib Dems will go into complete meltdown over the next few months as the Tories recover in the polls. Once again it's interesting that the strongest support for this shit budget comes from them rather than Labour supporters.
I can see it all over social media, the memes are "Rishi we forgive you" and stuff along those lines.
Even my lefty friends are saying it, maybe it wasn't so bad with Rishi and the whole "punish the Tories" thing was completely overdone by the media. I think Labour have broken something that they can't repair after raising tax on workers to pay for benefits, it's reputational damage they can't escape. It's probably as terminal for them as Liz Truss was for the Tory party.
FWIW, I haven't seen a single "Rishi we forgive you" message anywhere on social media. Appreciate we live in bubbles but I think this is a healthy dose of confirmation bias. I've even dug around for this meme on twitter and can't see anything at all.
I think Labour have basically got away with this budget; the welfare thing is toxic but people don't tend to pile in too much when there is a child poverty defence. The main frustration is that they haven't actually done anything, so left-leaning voters will continue to look for alternatives. The right already hate Labour with a passion, so nothing changes there.
I'm talking exclusively Instagram tbf, I don't do Twitter or facebook which are just brainrot platforms.
Believe me Labour haven't got away with this. It's their dementia tax, just not in the run up to an election. That was so bad that people almost voted for Corbyn.
The stories on benefit families haven't even started yet and eventually it will be some 7 child immigrant family getting £80k in benefits on the front pages and the constant drip of those will destroy them. There's nothing people who work hate more than people who don't and get more than them for just sitting around being layabouts. It's the same reason legal migrants are the most in favour of tough restrictions on illegal immigrants. It plays against our sense of fair play.
I agree - and Labour have an excellent defence in that they kept the benefit cap at £22k per year. There are going to be some exemptions to that, but that was already the case under the Conservatives.
Clearly Zara's move is unhelpful and will dominate the reports in the media. That said, I've been watching most of the conference online (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-755kRtHWdw) and it's overwhelmingly polite and friendly - Lee's Harpin's description of "chaos" is just silly.
Your Party is a very silly name. It's lazy. We are whatever 'you' want us to be.
They should say what they are, and give people something to rally to.
Possibly the issue is that there's not really anything there they think people will want to rally to.
Having quite liked Your Party as a working title I think they need a new name, mainly to move on from the current shitshow but also because it sounds a bit daft in interviews.
‘So what about Your Party?’
‘You mean my party?’
‘No, YOUR PARTY.’
Etc.
It could be called Not Sultana’s Party.
Currant affairs.
A date with destiny.
A Sultana that will live in infamy.
Corbyn should extend an olive branch.
He should not be just extending it but raisin it up high
"By contrast, Kemi Badenoch’s combative response to the Budget in Parliament appears to have resonated with some voters. Her approval rating rose three points, reaching net -14—her best score this year and level with Nigel Farage.
On the question of who would make the best Prime Minister:
Starmer’s lead over Badenoch narrows to 2 points Nearly half (48%) prefer none of the above Farage leads Starmer by 6 points When asked which party would better handle the economy:
25% say the Conservatives under Badenoch 19% choose Labour under Starmer 42% say neither
This gives the Conservatives a 6-point lead on economic management."
It's not impossible that Kemi overtakes Farage and Labour on best PM and on economic management.
If Farage can't shake the smell that's currently around him then it's not impossible that in 3.5 years time (an eternity) that the Conservatives come top of the polls, probably in the high 20s.
The comeback is on. Lib Dems will go into complete meltdown over the next few months as the Tories recover in the polls. Once again it's interesting that the strongest support for this shit budget comes from them rather than Labour supporters.
I can see it all over social media, the memes are "Rishi we forgive you" and stuff along those lines.
Even my lefty friends are saying it, maybe it wasn't so bad with Rishi and the whole "punish the Tories" thing was completely overdone by the media. I think Labour have broken something that they can't repair after raising tax on workers to pay for benefits, it's reputational damage they can't escape. It's probably as terminal for them as Liz Truss was for the Tory party.
It's strange how this tidal wave of affection for Rishi Sunak over social media hasn't been experienced by anyone else, just you.
I think we can say of Sunak that he generally meant well. He was also not stupid.
However, he was also arrogant, timid and possessed of shockingly poor judgement of people.
The fact that Starmer is not William Pitt the Younger does not turn Sunak into Disraeli.
My affection for Sunak is based on who his two predecessors were. It was just such a blessed relief to have the huge improvement of a prime minister who was merely not very good.
"By contrast, Kemi Badenoch’s combative response to the Budget in Parliament appears to have resonated with some voters. Her approval rating rose three points, reaching net -14—her best score this year and level with Nigel Farage.
On the question of who would make the best Prime Minister:
Starmer’s lead over Badenoch narrows to 2 points Nearly half (48%) prefer none of the above Farage leads Starmer by 6 points When asked which party would better handle the economy:
25% say the Conservatives under Badenoch 19% choose Labour under Starmer 42% say neither
This gives the Conservatives a 6-point lead on economic management."
It's not impossible that Kemi overtakes Farage and Labour on best PM and on economic management.
If Farage can't shake the smell that's currently around him then it's not impossible that in 3.5 years time (an eternity) that the Conservatives come top of the polls, probably in the high 20s.
The comeback is on. Lib Dems will go into complete meltdown over the next few months as the Tories recover in the polls. Once again it's interesting that the strongest support for this shit budget comes from them rather than Labour supporters.
I can see it all over social media, the memes are "Rishi we forgive you" and stuff along those lines.
Even my lefty friends are saying it, maybe it wasn't so bad with Rishi and the whole "punish the Tories" thing was completely overdone by the media. I think Labour have broken something that they can't repair after raising tax on workers to pay for benefits, it's reputational damage they can't escape. It's probably as terminal for them as Liz Truss was for the Tory party.
It's strange how this tidal wave of affection for Rishi Sunak over social media hasn't been experienced by anyone else, just you.
I think we can say of Sunak that he generally meant well. He was also not stupid.
However, he was also arrogant, timid and possessed of shockingly poor judgement of people.
The fact that Starmer is not William Pitt the Younger does not turn Sunak into Disraeli.
Of people and also weather.
All those moments will be lost in time, like tears in rain.
Having scorned the idea of lefties looking nostalgically on Rishi Sunak, we should all welcome a Tory revival and a renewed Tory economic offer.
In my opinion, Badenoch remains a total lightweight, who achieved nothing in actual office. But of course she is preferable to a Russia-loving, Brexit-bashing spiv.
The budget supplementaries are horrific for Labour, it usually takes a fortnight for events to shift the VI.
FWIW I have heard from two pollsters what is really damaging Reform in the polls is stuff like this, there's this belief that Farage wants to be like America and GB News his Fox News.
His slippery non denial hasn't gone down well either.
GB News urged to cut ties with contributor accused of racism
Rightwing activist claimed Commons deputy speaker Nusrat Ghani should be barred because she was born in Pakistan
GB News is facing calls to cut ties with a regular contributor who has been accused of racism after claiming that the House of Commons deputy speaker, Nusrat Ghani, should not be allowed in the house because she was born in Pakistan.
The comments by Lucy White, a rightwing activist, have drawn criticism from across the political spectrum amid warnings that explicitly racist language is becoming increasingly normalised in British life.
White, described as a public policy expert during appearances on GB News and Rupert Murdoch’s TalkTV, said on her X account on Wednesday: “Today, the Deputy Speaker presiding over the Budget Statement in the UK House of Commons is Nus Ghani.
“Nus Ghani was born in Kashmir, Pakistan. There should not be a single person born in Pakistan in the UK House of Commons.”
Nus Ghani was hugely impressive in the Budget debate
I would be very surprised if Farage does not suffer some political damage from recent events
I await the time conservative to reform defections start having a 'mea culpa' and return to the conservatives [if they will have them]
There is no doubt Badenoch has been noticed and fairly widely praised for her budget response
The conservatives need to stick with her, no matter the May 2026 results
It’s a shame she’s jumped on the leave the ECHR bandwagon . I thought she’s done better recently and was good in the budget response . I won’t vote for any party though that advocates leaving the ECHR .
"By contrast, Kemi Badenoch’s combative response to the Budget in Parliament appears to have resonated with some voters. Her approval rating rose three points, reaching net -14—her best score this year and level with Nigel Farage.
On the question of who would make the best Prime Minister:
Starmer’s lead over Badenoch narrows to 2 points Nearly half (48%) prefer none of the above Farage leads Starmer by 6 points When asked which party would better handle the economy:
25% say the Conservatives under Badenoch 19% choose Labour under Starmer 42% say neither
This gives the Conservatives a 6-point lead on economic management."
It's not impossible that Kemi overtakes Farage and Labour on best PM and on economic management.
If Farage can't shake the smell that's currently around him then it's not impossible that in 3.5 years time (an eternity) that the Conservatives come top of the polls, probably in the high 20s.
The comeback is on. Lib Dems will go into complete meltdown over the next few months as the Tories recover in the polls. Once again it's interesting that the strongest support for this shit budget comes from them rather than Labour supporters.
I can see it all over social media, the memes are "Rishi we forgive you" and stuff along those lines.
Even my lefty friends are saying it, maybe it wasn't so bad with Rishi and the whole "punish the Tories" thing was completely overdone by the media. I think Labour have broken something that they can't repair after raising tax on workers to pay for benefits, it's reputational damage they can't escape. It's probably as terminal for them as Liz Truss was for the Tory party.
FWIW, I haven't seen a single "Rishi we forgive you" message anywhere on social media. Appreciate we live in bubbles but I think this is a healthy dose of confirmation bias. I've even dug around for this meme on twitter and can't see anything at all.
I think Labour have basically got away with this budget; the welfare thing is toxic but people don't tend to pile in too much when there is a child poverty defence. The main frustration is that they haven't actually done anything, so left-leaning voters will continue to look for alternatives. The right already hate Labour with a passion, so nothing changes there.
I'm talking exclusively Instagram tbf, I don't do Twitter or facebook which are just brainrot platforms.
Believe me Labour haven't got away with this. It's their dementia tax, just not in the run up to an election. That was so bad that people almost voted for Corbyn.
The stories on benefit families haven't even started yet and eventually it will be some 7 child immigrant family getting £80k in benefits on the front pages and the constant drip of those will destroy them. There's nothing people who work hate more than people who don't and get more than them for just sitting around being layabouts. It's the same reason legal migrants are the most in favour of tough restrictions on illegal immigrants. It plays against our sense of fair play.
I agree - and Labour have an excellent defence in that they kept the benefit cap at £22k per year. There are going to be some exemptions to that, but that was already the case under the Conservatives.
But there will be tens of thousands of exceptions now rather than a handful. And those cases will be splashed all over the media and ruthlessly on social media. Stock pictures of some woman in a burka and 8 kids with a "Labour gives her £80k to sit at home while you go out and work hard" etc...
It's what I would do as the Tory campaign manager.
Clearly Zara's move is unhelpful and will dominate the reports in the media. That said, I've been watching most of the conference online (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-755kRtHWdw) and it's overwhelmingly polite and friendly - Lee's Harpin's description of "chaos" is just silly.
Your Party is a very silly name. It's lazy. We are whatever 'you' want us to be.
They should say what they are, and give people something to rally to.
Possibly the issue is that there's not really anything there they think people will want to rally to.
Having quite liked Your Party as a working title I think they need a new name, mainly to move on from the current shitshow but also because it sounds a bit daft in interviews.
"By contrast, Kemi Badenoch’s combative response to the Budget in Parliament appears to have resonated with some voters. Her approval rating rose three points, reaching net -14—her best score this year and level with Nigel Farage.
On the question of who would make the best Prime Minister:
Starmer’s lead over Badenoch narrows to 2 points Nearly half (48%) prefer none of the above Farage leads Starmer by 6 points When asked which party would better handle the economy:
25% say the Conservatives under Badenoch 19% choose Labour under Starmer 42% say neither
This gives the Conservatives a 6-point lead on economic management."
It's not impossible that Kemi overtakes Farage and Labour on best PM and on economic management.
If Farage can't shake the smell that's currently around him then it's not impossible that in 3.5 years time (an eternity) that the Conservatives come top of the polls, probably in the high 20s.
The comeback is on. Lib Dems will go into complete meltdown over the next few months as the Tories recover in the polls. Once again it's interesting that the strongest support for this shit budget comes from them rather than Labour supporters.
I can see it all over social media, the memes are "Rishi we forgive you" and stuff along those lines.
Even my lefty friends are saying it, maybe it wasn't so bad with Rishi and the whole "punish the Tories" thing was completely overdone by the media. I think Labour have broken something that they can't repair after raising tax on workers to pay for benefits, it's reputational damage they can't escape. It's probably as terminal for them as Liz Truss was for the Tory party.
It's strange how this tidal wave of affection for Rishi Sunak over social media hasn't been experienced by anyone else, just you.
I think we can say of Sunak that he generally meant well. He was also not stupid.
However, he was also arrogant, timid and possessed of shockingly poor judgement of people.
The fact that Starmer is not William Pitt the Younger does not turn Sunak into Disraeli.
We will all find explanations that fit our world view.
I've seen several re-appraisals of Truss 'she was the only one that tried to get us out of this' - but I am not going to declare that it's a trend or a widespread notion, because it isn't.
Sunak was just inadequate to the times. Britain had become uninvestable, unpoliceable, and ungovernable. Sunak wanted to be an insider, hug Macron, and prove that the system was fine when 'the grown ups are in the room'. But it isn't. The system is broken.
And he turned out not even to be a particularly slick salesman or politician. For Starmer, dial every failing of Sunak up a million. He is Sunak without the common sense, and with an ugly authoritarian streak on top.
"By contrast, Kemi Badenoch’s combative response to the Budget in Parliament appears to have resonated with some voters. Her approval rating rose three points, reaching net -14—her best score this year and level with Nigel Farage.
On the question of who would make the best Prime Minister:
Starmer’s lead over Badenoch narrows to 2 points Nearly half (48%) prefer none of the above Farage leads Starmer by 6 points When asked which party would better handle the economy:
25% say the Conservatives under Badenoch 19% choose Labour under Starmer 42% say neither
This gives the Conservatives a 6-point lead on economic management."
It's not impossible that Kemi overtakes Farage and Labour on best PM and on economic management.
If Farage can't shake the smell that's currently around him then it's not impossible that in 3.5 years time (an eternity) that the Conservatives come top of the polls, probably in the high 20s.
The comeback is on. Lib Dems will go into complete meltdown over the next few months as the Tories recover in the polls. Once again it's interesting that the strongest support for this shit budget comes from them rather than Labour supporters.
I can see it all over social media, the memes are "Rishi we forgive you" and stuff along those lines.
Even my lefty friends are saying it, maybe it wasn't so bad with Rishi and the whole "punish the Tories" thing was completely overdone by the media. I think Labour have broken something that they can't repair after raising tax on workers to pay for benefits, it's reputational damage they can't escape. It's probably as terminal for them as Liz Truss was for the Tory party.
FWIW, I haven't seen a single "Rishi we forgive you" message anywhere on social media. Appreciate we live in bubbles but I think this is a healthy dose of confirmation bias. I've even dug around for this meme on twitter and can't see anything at all.
I think Labour have basically got away with this budget; the welfare thing is toxic but people don't tend to pile in too much when there is a child poverty defence. The main frustration is that they haven't actually done anything, so left-leaning voters will continue to look for alternatives. The right already hate Labour with a passion, so nothing changes there.
I'm talking exclusively Instagram tbf, I don't do Twitter or facebook which are just brainrot platforms.
Believe me Labour haven't got away with this. It's their dementia tax, just not in the run up to an election. That was so bad that people almost voted for Corbyn.
The stories on benefit families haven't even started yet and eventually it will be some 7 child immigrant family getting £80k in benefits on the front pages and the constant drip of those will destroy them. There's nothing people who work hate more than people who don't and get more than them for just sitting around being layabouts. It's the same reason legal migrants are the most in favour of tough restrictions on illegal immigrants. It plays against our sense of fair play.
I agree - and Labour have an excellent defence in that they kept the benefit cap at £22k per year. There are going to be some exemptions to that, but that was already the case under the Conservatives.
But there will be tens of thousands of exceptions now rather than a handful. And those cases will be splashed all over the media and ruthlessly on social media. Stock pictures of some woman in a burka and 8 kids with a "Labour gives her £80k to sit at home while you go out and work hard" etc...
It's what I would do as the Tory campaign manager.
You can point out the unfairness of the benefit system and the huge amounts being paid to some notwithstanding the benefit cap, without being racist
The budget supplementaries are horrific for Labour, it usually takes a fortnight for events to shift the VI.
FWIW I have heard from two pollsters what is really damaging Reform in the polls is stuff like this, there's this belief that Farage wants to be like America and GB News his Fox News.
His slippery non denial hasn't gone down well either.
GB News urged to cut ties with contributor accused of racism
Rightwing activist claimed Commons deputy speaker Nusrat Ghani should be barred because she was born in Pakistan
GB News is facing calls to cut ties with a regular contributor who has been accused of racism after claiming that the House of Commons deputy speaker, Nusrat Ghani, should not be allowed in the house because she was born in Pakistan.
The comments by Lucy White, a rightwing activist, have drawn criticism from across the political spectrum amid warnings that explicitly racist language is becoming increasingly normalised in British life.
White, described as a public policy expert during appearances on GB News and Rupert Murdoch’s TalkTV, said on her X account on Wednesday: “Today, the Deputy Speaker presiding over the Budget Statement in the UK House of Commons is Nus Ghani.
“Nus Ghani was born in Kashmir, Pakistan. There should not be a single person born in Pakistan in the UK House of Commons.”
Nus Ghani was hugely impressive in the Budget debate
I would be very surprised if Farage does not suffer some political damage from recent events
I await the time conservative to reform defections start having a 'mea culpa' and return to the conservatives [if they will have them]
There is no doubt Badenoch has been noticed and fairly widely praised for her budget response
The conservatives need to stick with her, no matter the May 2026 results
It’s a shame she’s jumped on the leave the ECHR bandwagon . I thought she’s done better recently and was good in the budget response . I won’t vote for any party though that advocates leaving the ECHR .
It depends on whether it recluses from immigration for a specific purpose and to be honest I expect by the next GE European countries will have taken action in this area
"By contrast, Kemi Badenoch’s combative response to the Budget in Parliament appears to have resonated with some voters. Her approval rating rose three points, reaching net -14—her best score this year and level with Nigel Farage.
On the question of who would make the best Prime Minister:
Starmer’s lead over Badenoch narrows to 2 points Nearly half (48%) prefer none of the above Farage leads Starmer by 6 points When asked which party would better handle the economy:
25% say the Conservatives under Badenoch 19% choose Labour under Starmer 42% say neither
This gives the Conservatives a 6-point lead on economic management."
It's not impossible that Kemi overtakes Farage and Labour on best PM and on economic management.
If Farage can't shake the smell that's currently around him then it's not impossible that in 3.5 years time (an eternity) that the Conservatives come top of the polls, probably in the high 20s.
The comeback is on. Lib Dems will go into complete meltdown over the next few months as the Tories recover in the polls. Once again it's interesting that the strongest support for this shit budget comes from them rather than Labour supporters.
I can see it all over social media, the memes are "Rishi we forgive you" and stuff along those lines.
Even my lefty friends are saying it, maybe it wasn't so bad with Rishi and the whole "punish the Tories" thing was completely overdone by the media. I think Labour have broken something that they can't repair after raising tax on workers to pay for benefits, it's reputational damage they can't escape. It's probably as terminal for them as Liz Truss was for the Tory party.
FWIW, I haven't seen a single "Rishi we forgive you" message anywhere on social media. Appreciate we live in bubbles but I think this is a healthy dose of confirmation bias. I've even dug around for this meme on twitter and can't see anything at all.
I think Labour have basically got away with this budget; the welfare thing is toxic but people don't tend to pile in too much when there is a child poverty defence. The main frustration is that they haven't actually done anything, so left-leaning voters will continue to look for alternatives. The right already hate Labour with a passion, so nothing changes there.
I'm talking exclusively Instagram tbf, I don't do Twitter or facebook which are just brainrot platforms.
Believe me Labour haven't got away with this. It's their dementia tax, just not in the run up to an election. That was so bad that people almost voted for Corbyn.
The stories on benefit families haven't even started yet and eventually it will be some 7 child immigrant family getting £80k in benefits on the front pages and the constant drip of those will destroy them. There's nothing people who work hate more than people who don't and get more than them for just sitting around being layabouts. It's the same reason legal migrants are the most in favour of tough restrictions on illegal immigrants. It plays against our sense of fair play.
I agree - and Labour have an excellent defence in that they kept the benefit cap at £22k per year. There are going to be some exemptions to that, but that was already the case under the Conservatives.
But there will be tens of thousands of exceptions now rather than a handful. And those cases will be splashed all over the media and ruthlessly on social media. Stock pictures of some woman in a burka and 8 kids with a "Labour gives her £80k to sit at home while you go out and work hard" etc...
It's what I would do as the Tory campaign manager.
Yes, I think that's what I would do too. For accuracy's sake, I think it's more like £60k without any disabilities, and that would have to be in central London with £30k of that going to a landlord, which is mental. Only 4 bedrooms too.
I still think the fuel duty thing is more likely to get people pissed off because Labour don't have an available defence there (for the child limit you have child poverty, which no one likes, and benefit cap). Gambling tax has gone down very well.
"By contrast, Kemi Badenoch’s combative response to the Budget in Parliament appears to have resonated with some voters. Her approval rating rose three points, reaching net -14—her best score this year and level with Nigel Farage.
On the question of who would make the best Prime Minister:
Starmer’s lead over Badenoch narrows to 2 points Nearly half (48%) prefer none of the above Farage leads Starmer by 6 points When asked which party would better handle the economy:
25% say the Conservatives under Badenoch 19% choose Labour under Starmer 42% say neither
This gives the Conservatives a 6-point lead on economic management."
It's not impossible that Kemi overtakes Farage and Labour on best PM and on economic management.
If Farage can't shake the smell that's currently around him then it's not impossible that in 3.5 years time (an eternity) that the Conservatives come top of the polls, probably in the high 20s.
The comeback is on. Lib Dems will go into complete meltdown over the next few months as the Tories recover in the polls. Once again it's interesting that the strongest support for this shit budget comes from them rather than Labour supporters.
I can see it all over social media, the memes are "Rishi we forgive you" and stuff along those lines.
Even my lefty friends are saying it, maybe it wasn't so bad with Rishi and the whole "punish the Tories" thing was completely overdone by the media. I think Labour have broken something that they can't repair after raising tax on workers to pay for benefits, it's reputational damage they can't escape. It's probably as terminal for them as Liz Truss was for the Tory party.
FWIW, I haven't seen a single "Rishi we forgive you" message anywhere on social media. Appreciate we live in bubbles but I think this is a healthy dose of confirmation bias. I've even dug around for this meme on twitter and can't see anything at all.
I think Labour have basically got away with this budget; the welfare thing is toxic but people don't tend to pile in too much when there is a child poverty defence. The main frustration is that they haven't actually done anything, so left-leaning voters will continue to look for alternatives. The right already hate Labour with a passion, so nothing changes there.
I'm talking exclusively Instagram tbf, I don't do Twitter or facebook which are just brainrot platforms.
Believe me Labour haven't got away with this. It's their dementia tax, just not in the run up to an election. That was so bad that people almost voted for Corbyn.
The stories on benefit families haven't even started yet and eventually it will be some 7 child immigrant family getting £80k in benefits on the front pages and the constant drip of those will destroy them. There's nothing people who work hate more than people who don't and get more than them for just sitting around being layabouts. It's the same reason legal migrants are the most in favour of tough restrictions on illegal immigrants. It plays against our sense of fair play.
I agree - and Labour have an excellent defence in that they kept the benefit cap at £22k per year. There are going to be some exemptions to that, but that was already the case under the Conservatives.
But there will be tens of thousands of exceptions now rather than a handful. And those cases will be splashed all over the media and ruthlessly on social media. Stock pictures of some woman in a burka and 8 kids with a "Labour gives her £80k to sit at home while you go out and work hard" etc...
It's what I would do as the Tory campaign manager.
You can point out the unfairness of the benefit system and the huge amounts being paid to some notwithstanding the benefit cap, without being racist
The biggest beneficiaries of the removal of the 2 child cap is Muslim families. The Tories would be stupid not to exploit that, especially as an easy way to win back votes from Reform who also support the removal of it.
Clearly Zara's move is unhelpful and will dominate the reports in the media. That said, I've been watching most of the conference online (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-755kRtHWdw) and it's overwhelmingly polite and friendly - Lee's Harpin's description of "chaos" is just silly.
Your Party is a very silly name. It's lazy. We are whatever 'you' want us to be.
They should say what they are, and give people something to rally to.
Possibly the issue is that there's not really anything there they think people will want to rally to.
Having quite liked Your Party as a working title I think they need a new name, mainly to move on from the current shitshow but also because it sounds a bit daft in interviews.
It's like the Spurs defence had forgotten the keeper was miles away from the goal. There must be a curse on this football team.
Watched it again and this is insane. You 1) absolutely smash into a tackle, take the yellow, to stop him pinging it in 2) close it down has hard as possible 3) get at least one CB on the line.
They did nothing at all.
What gets me is the keeper not blasting it out, casually jogging back to position, and yet flapping his arms angrily as if he was not principally responsible.
Keepers really go wandering about a lot now, they suffer for it a lot, yet coaches don't tell them to stop for some reason.
"By contrast, Kemi Badenoch’s combative response to the Budget in Parliament appears to have resonated with some voters. Her approval rating rose three points, reaching net -14—her best score this year and level with Nigel Farage.
On the question of who would make the best Prime Minister:
Starmer’s lead over Badenoch narrows to 2 points Nearly half (48%) prefer none of the above Farage leads Starmer by 6 points When asked which party would better handle the economy:
25% say the Conservatives under Badenoch 19% choose Labour under Starmer 42% say neither
This gives the Conservatives a 6-point lead on economic management."
It's not impossible that Kemi overtakes Farage and Labour on best PM and on economic management.
If Farage can't shake the smell that's currently around him then it's not impossible that in 3.5 years time (an eternity) that the Conservatives come top of the polls, probably in the high 20s.
The comeback is on. Lib Dems will go into complete meltdown over the next few months as the Tories recover in the polls. Once again it's interesting that the strongest support for this shit budget comes from them rather than Labour supporters.
I can see it all over social media, the memes are "Rishi we forgive you" and stuff along those lines.
Even my lefty friends are saying it, maybe it wasn't so bad with Rishi and the whole "punish the Tories" thing was completely overdone by the media. I think Labour have broken something that they can't repair after raising tax on workers to pay for benefits, it's reputational damage they can't escape. It's probably as terminal for them as Liz Truss was for the Tory party.
FWIW, I haven't seen a single "Rishi we forgive you" message anywhere on social media. Appreciate we live in bubbles but I think this is a healthy dose of confirmation bias. I've even dug around for this meme on twitter and can't see anything at all.
I think Labour have basically got away with this budget; the welfare thing is toxic but people don't tend to pile in too much when there is a child poverty defence. The main frustration is that they haven't actually done anything, so left-leaning voters will continue to look for alternatives. The right already hate Labour with a passion, so nothing changes there.
I'm talking exclusively Instagram tbf, I don't do Twitter or facebook which are just brainrot platforms.
Believe me Labour haven't got away with this. It's their dementia tax, just not in the run up to an election. That was so bad that people almost voted for Corbyn.
The stories on benefit families haven't even started yet and eventually it will be some 7 child immigrant family getting £80k in benefits on the front pages and the constant drip of those will destroy them. There's nothing people who work hate more than people who don't and get more than them for just sitting around being layabouts. It's the same reason legal migrants are the most in favour of tough restrictions on illegal immigrants. It plays against our sense of fair play.
I agree - and Labour have an excellent defence in that they kept the benefit cap at £22k per year. There are going to be some exemptions to that, but that was already the case under the Conservatives.
But there will be tens of thousands of exceptions now rather than a handful. And those cases will be splashed all over the media and ruthlessly on social media. Stock pictures of some woman in a burka and 8 kids with a "Labour gives her £80k to sit at home while you go out and work hard" etc...
It's what I would do as the Tory campaign manager.
Yes, I think that's what I would do too. For accuracy's sake, I think it's more like £60k without any disabilities, and that would have to be in central London with £30k of that going to a landlord, which is mental. Only 4 bedrooms too.
I still think the fuel duty thing is more likely to get people pissed off because Labour don't have an available defence there (for the child limit you have child poverty, which no one likes, and benefit cap). Gambling tax has gone down very well.
I highly doubt that fuel duty will ever go up during this parliament, they'll keep kicking the can down the road and load up EV per mile charges to make up the difference.
"By contrast, Kemi Badenoch’s combative response to the Budget in Parliament appears to have resonated with some voters. Her approval rating rose three points, reaching net -14—her best score this year and level with Nigel Farage.
On the question of who would make the best Prime Minister:
Starmer’s lead over Badenoch narrows to 2 points Nearly half (48%) prefer none of the above Farage leads Starmer by 6 points When asked which party would better handle the economy:
25% say the Conservatives under Badenoch 19% choose Labour under Starmer 42% say neither
This gives the Conservatives a 6-point lead on economic management."
It's not impossible that Kemi overtakes Farage and Labour on best PM and on economic management.
If Farage can't shake the smell that's currently around him then it's not impossible that in 3.5 years time (an eternity) that the Conservatives come top of the polls, probably in the high 20s.
The comeback is on. Lib Dems will go into complete meltdown over the next few months as the Tories recover in the polls. Once again it's interesting that the strongest support for this shit budget comes from them rather than Labour supporters.
I can see it all over social media, the memes are "Rishi we forgive you" and stuff along those lines.
Even my lefty friends are saying it, maybe it wasn't so bad with Rishi and the whole "punish the Tories" thing was completely overdone by the media. I think Labour have broken something that they can't repair after raising tax on workers to pay for benefits, it's reputational damage they can't escape. It's probably as terminal for them as Liz Truss was for the Tory party.
FWIW, I haven't seen a single "Rishi we forgive you" message anywhere on social media. Appreciate we live in bubbles but I think this is a healthy dose of confirmation bias. I've even dug around for this meme on twitter and can't see anything at all.
I think Labour have basically got away with this budget; the welfare thing is toxic but people don't tend to pile in too much when there is a child poverty defence. The main frustration is that they haven't actually done anything, so left-leaning voters will continue to look for alternatives. The right already hate Labour with a passion, so nothing changes there.
I'm talking exclusively Instagram tbf, I don't do Twitter or facebook which are just brainrot platforms.
Believe me Labour haven't got away with this. It's their dementia tax, just not in the run up to an election. That was so bad that people almost voted for Corbyn.
The stories on benefit families haven't even started yet and eventually it will be some 7 child immigrant family getting £80k in benefits on the front pages and the constant drip of those will destroy them. There's nothing people who work hate more than people who don't and get more than them for just sitting around being layabouts. It's the same reason legal migrants are the most in favour of tough restrictions on illegal immigrants. It plays against our sense of fair play.
I agree - and Labour have an excellent defence in that they kept the benefit cap at £22k per year. There are going to be some exemptions to that, but that was already the case under the Conservatives.
But there will be tens of thousands of exceptions now rather than a handful. And those cases will be splashed all over the media and ruthlessly on social media. Stock pictures of some woman in a burka and 8 kids with a "Labour gives her £80k to sit at home while you go out and work hard" etc...
It's what I would do as the Tory campaign manager.
You can point out the unfairness of the benefit system and the huge amounts being paid to some notwithstanding the benefit cap, without being racist
The biggest beneficiaries of the removal of the 2 child cap is Muslim families. The Tories would be stupid not to exploit that, especially as an easy way to win back votes from Reform who also support the removal of it.
That is the way Reform do it but not a party seeking to be in government
Clearly Zara's move is unhelpful and will dominate the reports in the media. That said, I've been watching most of the conference online (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-755kRtHWdw) and it's overwhelmingly polite and friendly - Lee's Harpin's description of "chaos" is just silly.
Your Party is a very silly name. It's lazy. We are whatever 'you' want us to be.
They should say what they are, and give people something to rally to.
Possibly the issue is that there's not really anything there they think people will want to rally to.
Having quite liked Your Party as a working title I think they need a new name, mainly to move on from the current shitshow but also because it sounds a bit daft in interviews.
It's like the Spurs defence had forgotten the keeper was miles away from the goal. There must be a curse on this football team.
Watched it again and this is insane. You 1) absolutely smash into a tackle, take the yellow, to stop him pinging it in 2) close it down has hard as possible 3) get at least one CB on the line.
They did nothing at all.
What gets me is the keeper not blasting it out, casually jogging back to position, and yet flapping his arms angrily as if he was not principally responsible.
Keepers really go wandering about a lot now, they suffer for it a lot, yet coaches don't tell them to stop for some reason.
It's because a competent team like Arsenal have someone like Raya with insane vision and passing ability (and who can really sprint) in between the posts. Teams attempt to replicate and...
As cliche as it is the Tories were exhausted and out of ideas - whilst that doesn't automatically mean it was time for a replacement that will prove to be better, it does mean scepticism that it would have worked out better is very valid.
"By contrast, Kemi Badenoch’s combative response to the Budget in Parliament appears to have resonated with some voters. Her approval rating rose three points, reaching net -14—her best score this year and level with Nigel Farage.
On the question of who would make the best Prime Minister:
Starmer’s lead over Badenoch narrows to 2 points Nearly half (48%) prefer none of the above Farage leads Starmer by 6 points When asked which party would better handle the economy:
25% say the Conservatives under Badenoch 19% choose Labour under Starmer 42% say neither
This gives the Conservatives a 6-point lead on economic management."
It's not impossible that Kemi overtakes Farage and Labour on best PM and on economic management.
If Farage can't shake the smell that's currently around him then it's not impossible that in 3.5 years time (an eternity) that the Conservatives come top of the polls, probably in the high 20s.
The comeback is on. Lib Dems will go into complete meltdown over the next few months as the Tories recover in the polls. Once again it's interesting that the strongest support for this shit budget comes from them rather than Labour supporters.
I can see it all over social media, the memes are "Rishi we forgive you" and stuff along those lines.
Even my lefty friends are saying it, maybe it wasn't so bad with Rishi and the whole "punish the Tories" thing was completely overdone by the media. I think Labour have broken something that they can't repair after raising tax on workers to pay for benefits, it's reputational damage they can't escape. It's probably as terminal for them as Liz Truss was for the Tory party.
FWIW, I haven't seen a single "Rishi we forgive you" message anywhere on social media. Appreciate we live in bubbles but I think this is a healthy dose of confirmation bias. I've even dug around for this meme on twitter and can't see anything at all.
I think Labour have basically got away with this budget; the welfare thing is toxic but people don't tend to pile in too much when there is a child poverty defence. The main frustration is that they haven't actually done anything, so left-leaning voters will continue to look for alternatives. The right already hate Labour with a passion, so nothing changes there.
I'm talking exclusively Instagram tbf, I don't do Twitter or facebook which are just brainrot platforms.
Believe me Labour haven't got away with this. It's their dementia tax, just not in the run up to an election. That was so bad that people almost voted for Corbyn.
The stories on benefit families haven't even started yet and eventually it will be some 7 child immigrant family getting £80k in benefits on the front pages and the constant drip of those will destroy them. There's nothing people who work hate more than people who don't and get more than them for just sitting around being layabouts. It's the same reason legal migrants are the most in favour of tough restrictions on illegal immigrants. It plays against our sense of fair play.
I agree - and Labour have an excellent defence in that they kept the benefit cap at £22k per year. There are going to be some exemptions to that, but that was already the case under the Conservatives.
But there will be tens of thousands of exceptions now rather than a handful. And those cases will be splashed all over the media and ruthlessly on social media. Stock pictures of some woman in a burka and 8 kids with a "Labour gives her £80k to sit at home while you go out and work hard" etc...
It's what I would do as the Tory campaign manager.
You can point out the unfairness of the benefit system and the huge amounts being paid to some notwithstanding the benefit cap, without being racist
The biggest beneficiaries of the removal of the 2 child cap is Muslim families. The Tories would be stupid not to exploit that, especially as an easy way to win back votes from Reform who also support the removal of it.
That is the way Reform do it but not a party seeking to be in government
It's like the Spurs defence had forgotten the keeper was miles away from the goal. There must be a curse on this football team.
Watched it again and this is insane. You 1) absolutely smash into a tackle, take the yellow, to stop him pinging it in 2) close it down has hard as possible 3) get at least one CB on the line.
They did nothing at all.
What gets me is the keeper not blasting it out, casually jogging back to position, and yet flapping his arms angrily as if he was not principally responsible.
Keepers really go wandering about a lot now, they suffer for it a lot, yet coaches don't tell them to stop for some reason.
It's because a competent team like Arsenal have someone like Raya with insane vision and passing ability (and who can really sprint) in between the posts. Teams attempt to replicate and...
Reminds me of 'method actors' who just act like prats on set because they think it will magically turn them into Daniel Day Lewis.
"By contrast, Kemi Badenoch’s combative response to the Budget in Parliament appears to have resonated with some voters. Her approval rating rose three points, reaching net -14—her best score this year and level with Nigel Farage.
On the question of who would make the best Prime Minister:
Starmer’s lead over Badenoch narrows to 2 points Nearly half (48%) prefer none of the above Farage leads Starmer by 6 points When asked which party would better handle the economy:
25% say the Conservatives under Badenoch 19% choose Labour under Starmer 42% say neither
This gives the Conservatives a 6-point lead on economic management."
It's not impossible that Kemi overtakes Farage and Labour on best PM and on economic management.
If Farage can't shake the smell that's currently around him then it's not impossible that in 3.5 years time (an eternity) that the Conservatives come top of the polls, probably in the high 20s.
The comeback is on. Lib Dems will go into complete meltdown over the next few months as the Tories recover in the polls. Once again it's interesting that the strongest support for this shit budget comes from them rather than Labour supporters.
I can see it all over social media, the memes are "Rishi we forgive you" and stuff along those lines.
Even my lefty friends are saying it, maybe it wasn't so bad with Rishi and the whole "punish the Tories" thing was completely overdone by the media. I think Labour have broken something that they can't repair after raising tax on workers to pay for benefits, it's reputational damage they can't escape. It's probably as terminal for them as Liz Truss was for the Tory party.
FWIW, I haven't seen a single "Rishi we forgive you" message anywhere on social media. Appreciate we live in bubbles but I think this is a healthy dose of confirmation bias. I've even dug around for this meme on twitter and can't see anything at all.
I think Labour have basically got away with this budget; the welfare thing is toxic but people don't tend to pile in too much when there is a child poverty defence. The main frustration is that they haven't actually done anything, so left-leaning voters will continue to look for alternatives. The right already hate Labour with a passion, so nothing changes there.
I'm talking exclusively Instagram tbf, I don't do Twitter or facebook which are just brainrot platforms.
Believe me Labour haven't got away with this. It's their dementia tax, just not in the run up to an election. That was so bad that people almost voted for Corbyn.
The stories on benefit families haven't even started yet and eventually it will be some 7 child immigrant family getting £80k in benefits on the front pages and the constant drip of those will destroy them. There's nothing people who work hate more than people who don't and get more than them for just sitting around being layabouts. It's the same reason legal migrants are the most in favour of tough restrictions on illegal immigrants. It plays against our sense of fair play.
I agree - and Labour have an excellent defence in that they kept the benefit cap at £22k per year. There are going to be some exemptions to that, but that was already the case under the Conservatives.
But there will be tens of thousands of exceptions now rather than a handful. And those cases will be splashed all over the media and ruthlessly on social media. Stock pictures of some woman in a burka and 8 kids with a "Labour gives her £80k to sit at home while you go out and work hard" etc...
It's what I would do as the Tory campaign manager.
You can point out the unfairness of the benefit system and the huge amounts being paid to some notwithstanding the benefit cap, without being racist
The biggest beneficiaries of the removal of the 2 child cap is Muslim families. The Tories would be stupid not to exploit that, especially as an easy way to win back votes from Reform who also support the removal of it.
That is the way Reform do it but not a party seeking to be in government
Racism is not acceptable
Quite right.
Most people are fed up with the constant race-baiting that passes for political debate online. I rather fear that MaxPB has entered his Plato years.
"By contrast, Kemi Badenoch’s combative response to the Budget in Parliament appears to have resonated with some voters. Her approval rating rose three points, reaching net -14—her best score this year and level with Nigel Farage.
On the question of who would make the best Prime Minister:
Starmer’s lead over Badenoch narrows to 2 points Nearly half (48%) prefer none of the above Farage leads Starmer by 6 points When asked which party would better handle the economy:
25% say the Conservatives under Badenoch 19% choose Labour under Starmer 42% say neither
This gives the Conservatives a 6-point lead on economic management."
It's not impossible that Kemi overtakes Farage and Labour on best PM and on economic management.
If Farage can't shake the smell that's currently around him then it's not impossible that in 3.5 years time (an eternity) that the Conservatives come top of the polls, probably in the high 20s.
The comeback is on. Lib Dems will go into complete meltdown over the next few months as the Tories recover in the polls. Once again it's interesting that the strongest support for this shit budget comes from them rather than Labour supporters.
I can see it all over social media, the memes are "Rishi we forgive you" and stuff along those lines.
Even my lefty friends are saying it, maybe it wasn't so bad with Rishi and the whole "punish the Tories" thing was completely overdone by the media. I think Labour have broken something that they can't repair after raising tax on workers to pay for benefits, it's reputational damage they can't escape. It's probably as terminal for them as Liz Truss was for the Tory party.
FWIW, I haven't seen a single "Rishi we forgive you" message anywhere on social media. Appreciate we live in bubbles but I think this is a healthy dose of confirmation bias. I've even dug around for this meme on twitter and can't see anything at all.
I think Labour have basically got away with this budget; the welfare thing is toxic but people don't tend to pile in too much when there is a child poverty defence. The main frustration is that they haven't actually done anything, so left-leaning voters will continue to look for alternatives. The right already hate Labour with a passion, so nothing changes there.
I'm talking exclusively Instagram tbf, I don't do Twitter or facebook which are just brainrot platforms.
Believe me Labour haven't got away with this. It's their dementia tax, just not in the run up to an election. That was so bad that people almost voted for Corbyn.
The stories on benefit families haven't even started yet and eventually it will be some 7 child immigrant family getting £80k in benefits on the front pages and the constant drip of those will destroy them. There's nothing people who work hate more than people who don't and get more than them for just sitting around being layabouts. It's the same reason legal migrants are the most in favour of tough restrictions on illegal immigrants. It plays against our sense of fair play.
I agree - and Labour have an excellent defence in that they kept the benefit cap at £22k per year. There are going to be some exemptions to that, but that was already the case under the Conservatives.
But there will be tens of thousands of exceptions now rather than a handful. And those cases will be splashed all over the media and ruthlessly on social media. Stock pictures of some woman in a burka and 8 kids with a "Labour gives her £80k to sit at home while you go out and work hard" etc...
It's what I would do as the Tory campaign manager.
You can point out the unfairness of the benefit system and the huge amounts being paid to some notwithstanding the benefit cap, without being racist
The biggest beneficiaries of the removal of the 2 child cap is Muslim families. The Tories would be stupid not to exploit that, especially as an easy way to win back votes from Reform who also support the removal of it.
That is the way Reform do it but not a party seeking to be in government
Racism is not acceptable
But it's the truth? It's reality that's racist.
Just checked the stats and it's actually more representative than you might think - 70% white, for about 80% population. So I would strongly advise the Conservatives not to do anything like that all.
(Funny how you had already made such an assumption though).
"By contrast, Kemi Badenoch’s combative response to the Budget in Parliament appears to have resonated with some voters. Her approval rating rose three points, reaching net -14—her best score this year and level with Nigel Farage.
On the question of who would make the best Prime Minister:
Starmer’s lead over Badenoch narrows to 2 points Nearly half (48%) prefer none of the above Farage leads Starmer by 6 points When asked which party would better handle the economy:
25% say the Conservatives under Badenoch 19% choose Labour under Starmer 42% say neither
This gives the Conservatives a 6-point lead on economic management."
It's not impossible that Kemi overtakes Farage and Labour on best PM and on economic management.
If Farage can't shake the smell that's currently around him then it's not impossible that in 3.5 years time (an eternity) that the Conservatives come top of the polls, probably in the high 20s.
The comeback is on. Lib Dems will go into complete meltdown over the next few months as the Tories recover in the polls. Once again it's interesting that the strongest support for this shit budget comes from them rather than Labour supporters.
I can see it all over social media, the memes are "Rishi we forgive you" and stuff along those lines.
Even my lefty friends are saying it, maybe it wasn't so bad with Rishi and the whole "punish the Tories" thing was completely overdone by the media. I think Labour have broken something that they can't repair after raising tax on workers to pay for benefits, it's reputational damage they can't escape. It's probably as terminal for them as Liz Truss was for the Tory party.
FWIW, I haven't seen a single "Rishi we forgive you" message anywhere on social media. Appreciate we live in bubbles but I think this is a healthy dose of confirmation bias. I've even dug around for this meme on twitter and can't see anything at all.
I think Labour have basically got away with this budget; the welfare thing is toxic but people don't tend to pile in too much when there is a child poverty defence. The main frustration is that they haven't actually done anything, so left-leaning voters will continue to look for alternatives. The right already hate Labour with a passion, so nothing changes there.
I'm talking exclusively Instagram tbf, I don't do Twitter or facebook which are just brainrot platforms.
Believe me Labour haven't got away with this. It's their dementia tax, just not in the run up to an election. That was so bad that people almost voted for Corbyn.
The stories on benefit families haven't even started yet and eventually it will be some 7 child immigrant family getting £80k in benefits on the front pages and the constant drip of those will destroy them. There's nothing people who work hate more than people who don't and get more than them for just sitting around being layabouts. It's the same reason legal migrants are the most in favour of tough restrictions on illegal immigrants. It plays against our sense of fair play.
I agree - and Labour have an excellent defence in that they kept the benefit cap at £22k per year. There are going to be some exemptions to that, but that was already the case under the Conservatives.
But there will be tens of thousands of exceptions now rather than a handful. And those cases will be splashed all over the media and ruthlessly on social media. Stock pictures of some woman in a burka and 8 kids with a "Labour gives her £80k to sit at home while you go out and work hard" etc...
It's what I would do as the Tory campaign manager.
You can point out the unfairness of the benefit system and the huge amounts being paid to some notwithstanding the benefit cap, without being racist
The biggest beneficiaries of the removal of the 2 child cap is Muslim families. The Tories would be stupid not to exploit that, especially as an easy way to win back votes from Reform who also support the removal of it.
That is the way Reform do it but not a party seeking to be in government
Racism is not acceptable
Quite right.
Most people are fed up with the constant race-baiting that passes for political debate online. I rather fear that MaxPB has entered his Plato years.
Not really, I think it's the opposite. People are fed up of weak liberals covering up for "protected" people. The Tories would do well to capture that and win votes back from Reform.
The budget supplementaries are horrific for Labour, it usually takes a fortnight for events to shift the VI.
FWIW I have heard from two pollsters what is really damaging Reform in the polls is stuff like this, there's this belief that Farage wants to be like America and GB News his Fox News.
His slippery non denial hasn't gone down well either.
GB News urged to cut ties with contributor accused of racism
Rightwing activist claimed Commons deputy speaker Nusrat Ghani should be barred because she was born in Pakistan
GB News is facing calls to cut ties with a regular contributor who has been accused of racism after claiming that the House of Commons deputy speaker, Nusrat Ghani, should not be allowed in the house because she was born in Pakistan.
The comments by Lucy White, a rightwing activist, have drawn criticism from across the political spectrum amid warnings that explicitly racist language is becoming increasingly normalised in British life.
White, described as a public policy expert during appearances on GB News and Rupert Murdoch’s TalkTV, said on her X account on Wednesday: “Today, the Deputy Speaker presiding over the Budget Statement in the UK House of Commons is Nus Ghani.
“Nus Ghani was born in Kashmir, Pakistan. There should not be a single person born in Pakistan in the UK House of Commons.”
Comments
The whole industry had been run on a pyramid of lies.
He also looked into other things - as a side thing he found out how and why the population figures had got cooked. The USSR was obsessed with manpower - your giant conscript army is only as good as the number of conscripts. So the the classic Soviet thing happened - the managers lied to the mangers above them, who in turn... all the way to the politburo. So the people running the country had ridiculously fake numbers.
In that case, the local party guys were reporting the number of babies born. And adding on the number of late term abortions....
As I say, I may have massively misremembered the details.
"By contrast, Kemi Badenoch’s combative response to the Budget in Parliament appears to have resonated with some voters. Her approval rating rose three points, reaching net -14—her best score this year and level with Nigel Farage.
On the question of who would make the best Prime Minister:
Starmer’s lead over Badenoch narrows to 2 points
Nearly half (48%) prefer none of the above
Farage leads Starmer by 6 points
When asked which party would better handle the economy:
25% say the Conservatives under Badenoch
19% choose Labour under Starmer
42% say neither
This gives the Conservatives a 6-point lead on economic management."
It's not impossible that Kemi overtakes Farage and Labour on best PM and on economic management.
If Farage can't shake the smell that's currently around him then it's not impossible that in 3.5 years time (an eternity) that the Conservatives come top of the polls, probably in the high 20s.
Unfortunately I think most people in power do as well.
Thing is, though, that we're approaching a point of no return. We know we're being betrayed, but will we do anything to resist it ?
Channel 4 News says the first day ended in chaos. Sultana didn't turn up.
So not a great new beginning. Nick What do you think?
one off the goals I am told is incredible.. from.the touchline
https://x.com/SkySportsPL/status/1994861752610087355
I can see it all over social media, the memes are "Rishi we forgive you" and stuff along those lines.
Even my lefty friends are saying it, maybe it wasn't so bad with Rishi and the whole "punish the Tories" thing was completely overdone by the media. I think Labour have broken something that they can't repair after raising tax on workers to pay for benefits, it's reputational damage they can't escape. It's probably as terminal for them as Liz Truss was for the Tory party.
Reform 31% (-1)
Lab 21% (+2)
Cons 17% (nc)
Greens 13% (+1)
Lib Dems 11% (-2)
SNP 3% (nc)
I think Labour have basically got away with this budget; the welfare thing is toxic but people don't tend to pile in too much when there is a child poverty defence. The main frustration is that they haven't actually done anything, so left-leaning voters will continue to look for alternatives. The right already hate Labour with a passion, so nothing changes there.
Getting nilled and stepmommed at home is truly impressive.
And Labour really being punished for the budget.
They did nothing at all.
FWIW I have heard from two pollsters what is really damaging Reform in the polls is stuff like this, there's this belief that Farage wants to be like America and GB News his Fox News.
His slippery non denial hasn't gone down well either.
GB News urged to cut ties with contributor accused of racism
Rightwing activist claimed Commons deputy speaker Nusrat Ghani should be barred because she was born in Pakistan
GB News is facing calls to cut ties with a regular contributor who has been accused of racism after claiming that the House of Commons deputy speaker, Nusrat Ghani, should not be allowed in the house because she was born in Pakistan.
The comments by Lucy White, a rightwing activist, have drawn criticism from across the political spectrum amid warnings that explicitly racist language is becoming increasingly normalised in British life.
White, described as a public policy expert during appearances on GB News and Rupert Murdoch’s TalkTV, said on her X account on Wednesday: “Today, the Deputy Speaker presiding over the Budget Statement in the UK House of Commons is Nus Ghani.
“Nus Ghani was born in Kashmir, Pakistan. There should not be a single person born in Pakistan in the UK House of Commons.”
https://www.theguardian.com/media/2025/nov/29/gb-news-urged-to-cut-ties-with-contributor-lucy-white-accused-of-racism
Believe me Labour haven't got away with this. It's their dementia tax, just not in the run up to an election. That was so bad that people almost voted for Corbyn.
The stories on benefit families haven't even started yet and eventually it will be some 7 child immigrant family getting £80k in benefits on the front pages and the constant drip of those will destroy them. There's nothing people who work hate more than people who don't and get more than them for just sitting around being layabouts. It's the same reason legal migrants are the most in favour of tough restrictions on illegal immigrants. It plays against our sense of fair play.
However, he was also arrogant, timid and possessed of shockingly poor judgement of people.
The fact that Starmer is not William Pitt the Younger does not turn Sunak into Disraeli.
The louder the speakers shout for unity the more they then go onto expound why so and so must be expelled.
Just
I would be very surprised if Farage does not suffer some political damage from recent events
I await the time conservative to reform defections start having a 'mea culpa' and return to the conservatives [if they will have them]
There is no doubt Badenoch has been noticed and fairly widely praised for her budget response
The conservatives need to stick with her, no matter the May 2026 results
1 year on from the 2024 general election, Britons are split on whether it would have been better if Rishi Sunak and the Tories had won instead
Better if Sunak/Tories won: 33%
Better that Starmer/Labour won: 33%
Don't know: 33%
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/survey-results/daily/2025/07/04/d42a8/1?utm_source=daily_question&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=daily/2025/07/04_question_1
In my opinion, Badenoch remains a total lightweight, who achieved nothing in actual office. But of course she is preferable to a Russia-loving, Brexit-bashing spiv.
It's what I would do as the Tory campaign manager.
I've seen several re-appraisals of Truss 'she was the only one that tried to get us out of this' - but I am not going to declare that it's a trend or a widespread notion, because it isn't.
Sunak was just inadequate to the times. Britain had become uninvestable, unpoliceable, and ungovernable. Sunak wanted to be an insider, hug Macron, and prove that the system was fine when 'the grown ups are in the room'. But it isn't. The system is broken.
And he turned out not even to be a particularly slick salesman or politician. For Starmer, dial every failing of Sunak up a million. He is Sunak without the common sense, and with an ugly authoritarian streak on top.
I still think the fuel duty thing is more likely to get people pissed off because Labour don't have an available defence there (for the child limit you have child poverty, which no one likes, and benefit cap). Gambling tax has gone down very well.
Keepers really go wandering about a lot now, they suffer for it a lot, yet coaches don't tell them to stop for some reason.
Racism is not acceptable
Most people are fed up with the constant race-baiting that passes for political debate online. I rather fear that MaxPB has entered his Plato years.
(Funny how you had already made such an assumption though).