Clearly Zara's move is unhelpful and will dominate the reports in the media. That said, I've been watching most of the conference online (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-755kRtHWdw) and it's overwhelmingly polite and friendly - Lee's Harpin's description of "chaos" is just silly.
Your Party is a very silly name. It's lazy. We are whatever 'you' want us to be.
They should say what they are, and give people something to rally to.
Possibly the issue is that there's not really anything there they think people will want to rally to.
It was an interim name - the long-term name will be decided tomorrow.
With “Your Party” one of the options and likely to win.
It was 0 73 at the finish. None of the top players in Wales are playing aiui. I don't know why. Much as I want Wales to be dicked on every occasion such scores if continued, are very bad for the Six Nations and Rugby in general. (Would have likely been a big defeat even if the best players were available)
Clearly Zara's move is unhelpful and will dominate the reports in the media. That said, I've been watching most of the conference online (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-755kRtHWdw) and it's overwhelmingly polite and friendly - Lee's Harpin's description of "chaos" is just silly.
It's dead at birth, Nick. Swallow your pride, and stick with your Blairite chums, or go join the Greens.
It kinda looks that way. If Sultana gets her way and lets the SWP in, it becomes just another in a long line of SWP front organisations that don’t really go anywhere. If Sultana doesn’t get her way and leaves, then it becomes Jeremy and 60% of the Independent Allliance, with not much appeal to the younger activists. Maybe I’m being too simplistic and pessimistic, but not much about how YP operate suggests optimism is appropriate.
It was 0 73 at the finish. None of the top players in Wales are playing aiui. I don't know why. Much as I want Wales to be dicked on every occasion such scores if continued, are very bad for the Six Nations and Rugby in general. (Would have likely been a big defeat even if the best players were available)
I found this in the www.. Wales take on the world champions without 13 of their best players because the game falls outside of World Rugby's designated international window. Tandy's starting XV can only boast 267 caps between them so experienc
Clearly Zara's move is unhelpful and will dominate the reports in the media. That said, I've been watching most of the conference online (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-755kRtHWdw) and it's overwhelmingly polite and friendly - Lee's Harpin's description of "chaos" is just silly.
Your Party is a very silly name. It's lazy. We are whatever 'you' want us to be.
They should say what they are, and give people something to rally to.
Possibly the issue is that there's not really anything there they think people will want to rally to.
It was an interim name - the long-term name will be decided tomorrow.
With “Your Party” one of the options and likely to win.
It would be a dumb choice, any name that is confusing to say in discussion is going to be silly. Just go with People's Party or something.
Clearly Zara's move is unhelpful and will dominate the reports in the media. That said, I've been watching most of the conference online (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-755kRtHWdw) and it's overwhelmingly polite and friendly - Lee's Harpin's description of "chaos" is just silly.
Your Party is a very silly name. It's lazy. We are whatever 'you' want us to be.
They should say what they are, and give people something to rally to.
Possibly the issue is that there's not really anything there they think people will want to rally to.
It was an interim name - the long-term name will be decided tomorrow.
With “Your Party” one of the options and likely to win.
It would be a dumb choice, any name that is confusing to say in discussion is going to be silly. Just go with People's Party or something.
Clearly Zara's move is unhelpful and will dominate the reports in the media. That said, I've been watching most of the conference online (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-755kRtHWdw) and it's overwhelmingly polite and friendly - Lee's Harpin's description of "chaos" is just silly.
It's dead at birth, Nick. Swallow your pride, and stick with your Blairite chums, or go join the Greens.
It kinda looks that way. If Sultana gets her way and lets the SWP in, it becomes just another in a long line of SWP front organisations that don’t really go anywhere. If Sultana doesn’t get her way and leaves, then it becomes Jeremy and 60% of the Independent Allliance, with not much appeal to the younger activists. Maybe I’m being too simplistic and pessimistic, but not much about how YP operate suggests optimism is appropriate.
Without the Green membership surge happening I'd be much more optimistic about their chances, even if organisation was chaotic, since there's clearly a lot of people currently looking for Labour alternatives in a more serious way than for a long time. But even with talk of potential pacts and alliances, and YP positions not yet solidified, it feels more like a more popular ChangeUK, identifying there is interest in alternatives but not seeing they do already exist.
Yet ANOTHER person blocked from entering the Your Party conference - despite being invited to attend... What is going on @counterfireorg #YourParty #YourPartyConference
"Prepare next for the great sell: a wave of propaganda rolling soon in our direction, praising Trump, the inspired bringer of peace, brushing aside petty concerns about geography, missiles and tank divisions. Brace for the reassuring, conciliatory speech from a smiling Putin, so eagerly quoted by diminished Western leaders. We will be fed heartwarming stories of returning villagers and of churches being restored; a new age of peace and amity with Russia will be proclaimed. Believe not a word.
"Maybe, in the end, this was all inevitable. Small states can defeat great ones – Vietnam, Afghanistan – but they are the exception, and they are rarely neighbours of their greater enemies. Mostly, might prevails. This is what Donald Trump thinks, and this is what Vladimir Putin thinks. And with the vast power of Xi Jinping’s China watching it all, they are in the driving seat. If this capitulation is imposed, that is the big lesson to remember: there are no reliable international rules or norms any more. If you are part of the world of smaller nations, tool up, onshore what industries you can, start filling the sandbags. Because history is back, and our enemies are coming, one day, for us."
Looks like Your Party is over then before it really began which is good news for Starmer and Polanski
I'm not 100% sure it's "good news" for Starmer as it polarises the anti-Labour vote on the "left" to one place rather than dividing it. In my Borough, Newham, I now expect a full slate of Newham Independent (NIP) candidates in the Muslim Wards and a full slate of Green candidates elsewhere and the question is how those two groups will eat into the Labour vote.
I've mentioned before there's a fairly clear route to the NIP winning 15 seats on the Council and a less clear route to 23 but if the Greens can win a dozen or more seats there's a chance the Labour majority could be under threat seriously for the first time since 1968. Back then, Laobur only won 30 of 60 seats and kept control only by the election of five Aldermen. In 1971, they gained 23 and have not been seriously threatened.
The Residents won my Ward, Wall End, in 1968 but lost it to Labour on a 17% swing three years later.
The other conundrum is the Mayoral contest - Labour have chosen the uninspiring Forhad Hussain to be the successor to Roksana Fiaz and he would likely win if BOTH NIP and Green candidates stand against him but a single anti-Labour candidate on "the left" has a chance.
Clearly Zara's move is unhelpful and will dominate the reports in the media. That said, I've been watching most of the conference online (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-755kRtHWdw) and it's overwhelmingly polite and friendly - Lee's Harpin's description of "chaos" is just silly.
Your Party is a very silly name. It's lazy. We are whatever 'you' want us to be.
They should say what they are, and give people something to rally to.
Possibly the issue is that there's not really anything there they think people will want to rally to.
It was an interim name - the long-term name will be decided tomorrow.
With “Your Party” one of the options and likely to win.
It would be a dumb choice, any name that is confusing to say in discussion is going to be silly. Just go with People's Party or something.
"Prepare next for the great sell: a wave of propaganda rolling soon in our direction, praising Trump, the inspired bringer of peace, brushing aside petty concerns about geography, missiles and tank divisions. Brace for the reassuring, conciliatory speech from a smiling Putin, so eagerly quoted by diminished Western leaders. We will be fed heartwarming stories of returning villagers and of churches being restored; a new age of peace and amity with Russia will be proclaimed. Believe not a word.
"Maybe, in the end, this was all inevitable. Small states can defeat great ones – Vietnam, Afghanistan – but they are the exception, and they are rarely neighbours of their greater enemies. Mostly, might prevails. This is what Donald Trump thinks, and this is what Vladimir Putin thinks. And with the vast power of Xi Jinping’s China watching it all, they are in the driving seat. If this capitulation is imposed, that is the big lesson to remember: there are no reliable international rules or norms any more. If you are part of the world of smaller nations, tool up, onshore what industries you can, start filling the sandbags. Because history is back, and our enemies are coming, one day, for us."
Clearly Zara's move is unhelpful and will dominate the reports in the media. That said, I've been watching most of the conference online (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-755kRtHWdw) and it's overwhelmingly polite and friendly - Lee's Harpin's description of "chaos" is just silly.
Your Party is a very silly name. It's lazy. We are whatever 'you' want us to be.
They should say what they are, and give people something to rally to.
Possibly the issue is that there's not really anything there they think people will want to rally to.
It was an interim name - the long-term name will be decided tomorrow.
With “Your Party” one of the options and likely to win.
It would be a dumb choice, any name that is confusing to say in discussion is going to be silly. Just go with People's Party or something.
It was 0 73 at the finish. None of the top players in Wales are playing aiui. I don't know why. Much as I want Wales to be dicked on every occasion such scores if continued, are very bad for the Six Nations and Rugby in general. (Would have likely been a big defeat even if the best players were available)
Must be pretty embarrassing to win a match like that.
"Prepare next for the great sell: a wave of propaganda rolling soon in our direction, praising Trump, the inspired bringer of peace, brushing aside petty concerns about geography, missiles and tank divisions. Brace for the reassuring, conciliatory speech from a smiling Putin, so eagerly quoted by diminished Western leaders. We will be fed heartwarming stories of returning villagers and of churches being restored; a new age of peace and amity with Russia will be proclaimed. Believe not a word.
"Maybe, in the end, this was all inevitable. Small states can defeat great ones – Vietnam, Afghanistan – but they are the exception, and they are rarely neighbours of their greater enemies. Mostly, might prevails. This is what Donald Trump thinks, and this is what Vladimir Putin thinks. And with the vast power of Xi Jinping’s China watching it all, they are in the driving seat. If this capitulation is imposed, that is the big lesson to remember: there are no reliable international rules or norms any more. If you are part of the world of smaller nations, tool up, onshore what industries you can, start filling the sandbags. Because history is back, and our enemies are coming, one day, for us."
Never give up your nuclear weapons.
Tony Blair gave ours up. The tactical nuclear programme was our last truly independent programme.
"Prepare next for the great sell: a wave of propaganda rolling soon in our direction, praising Trump, the inspired bringer of peace, brushing aside petty concerns about geography, missiles and tank divisions. Brace for the reassuring, conciliatory speech from a smiling Putin, so eagerly quoted by diminished Western leaders. We will be fed heartwarming stories of returning villagers and of churches being restored; a new age of peace and amity with Russia will be proclaimed. Believe not a word.
"Maybe, in the end, this was all inevitable. Small states can defeat great ones – Vietnam, Afghanistan – but they are the exception, and they are rarely neighbours of their greater enemies. Mostly, might prevails. This is what Donald Trump thinks, and this is what Vladimir Putin thinks. And with the vast power of Xi Jinping’s China watching it all, they are in the driving seat. If this capitulation is imposed, that is the big lesson to remember: there are no reliable international rules or norms any more. If you are part of the world of smaller nations, tool up, onshore what industries you can, start filling the sandbags. Because history is back, and our enemies are coming, one day, for us."
Something else to chew on (By David Runciman, Hon Prof of Politics, Cambridge Uni)
"For decades the Japanese health ministry has released an annual tally of citizens aged one hundred or over. This year the number of centenarians reached very nearly a hundred thousand. When the survey started in 1963, there were just 153. In 1981 there were a thousand; in 1998 ten thousand. Japan now produces more nappies for incontinent adults than for infants. There is a burgeoning industry for the cleaning and fumigating of apartments in which elderly Japanese citizens have died and been left undiscovered for weeks, months or years."
Thinking about it, helps to explain Putin. Russia, like Japan, is stuffed demographically. Last chance to do something, especially in face of possible German rearmament. Those Baltic States are going to just hand themselves over by themselves. And you can't easily unwind a war economy.
As far as I can see, it's 20% of Labour MPs nominating an individual which triggers a leadership election so 81 MPs whereas it's 15% of Conservatives (a somewhat smaller number - 18?).
Are there that many MPs willing to put their heads above the parapet and is there an obvious individual?
In truth, such contests rarely achieve the change at the time desired by those doing the challenging - Thatcher only went because she didn't win well enough under the arcane Conservative rules of the time but, apart from IDS, I struggle to think of a leader who has lost a challenge or confidence vote - actually, I think Corbyn did, or did he?
The problem is when the leader appears not to have enjoyed the enthusiuastic endorsement of his/her colleagues. Thatcher got 314 votes in the challenge from Sir Anthony Meyer but thst still meant 60 MPs didn't vote for her. May got 200 MPs to back her but 117 didn't and Johnson only won 211-148. Arguably, both were damaged perhaps irrevocably by the votes and the perceptions of division and discontent within the ranks.
That's the risk for Starmer - not defeat per se but a modest victory. I'd argue if he won 255-150 he would be compromised whereas if the margin were, for example, 355-50, he could probably find his position strengthened.
"Prepare next for the great sell: a wave of propaganda rolling soon in our direction, praising Trump, the inspired bringer of peace, brushing aside petty concerns about geography, missiles and tank divisions. Brace for the reassuring, conciliatory speech from a smiling Putin, so eagerly quoted by diminished Western leaders. We will be fed heartwarming stories of returning villagers and of churches being restored; a new age of peace and amity with Russia will be proclaimed. Believe not a word.
"Maybe, in the end, this was all inevitable. Small states can defeat great ones – Vietnam, Afghanistan – but they are the exception, and they are rarely neighbours of their greater enemies. Mostly, might prevails. This is what Donald Trump thinks, and this is what Vladimir Putin thinks. And with the vast power of Xi Jinping’s China watching it all, they are in the driving seat. If this capitulation is imposed, that is the big lesson to remember: there are no reliable international rules or norms any more. If you are part of the world of smaller nations, tool up, onshore what industries you can, start filling the sandbags. Because history is back, and our enemies are coming, one day, for us."
Something else to chew on (By David Runciman, Hon Prof of Politics, Cambridge Uni)
"For decades the Japanese health ministry has released an annual tally of citizens aged one hundred or over. This year the number of centenarians reached very nearly a hundred thousand. When the survey started in 1963, there were just 153. In 1981 there were a thousand; in 1998 ten thousand. Japan now produces more nappies for incontinent adults than for infants. There is a burgeoning industry for the cleaning and fumigating of apartments in which elderly Japanese citizens have died and been left undiscovered for weeks, months or years."
Thinking about it, helps to explain Putin. Russia, like Japan, is stuffed demographically. Last chance to do something, especially in face of possible German rearmament. Those Baltic States are going to just hand themselves over by themselves. And you can't easily unwind a war economy.
If we want to talk long term demographics, it's not looking good for China thanks to the one-child policy. The median age in both China and Russia is 40.3 years, in the UK it's 40.1, in the US it's 38.5, in Brazil 34.8, in India 28.8 and in Nigeria 18.1 years. The future global superpowers are likely India and Nigeria - the dawning of the equatorial age perhaps though will climate age promote more northward and southward migration - remember, 85% of humanity lives north of the equator and only 15% south.
Clearly Zara's move is unhelpful and will dominate the reports in the media. That said, I've been watching most of the conference online (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-755kRtHWdw) and it's overwhelmingly polite and friendly - Lee's Harpin's description of "chaos" is just silly.
Your Party is a very silly name. It's lazy. We are whatever 'you' want us to be.
They should say what they are, and give people something to rally to.
Possibly the issue is that there's not really anything there they think people will want to rally to.
Having quite liked Your Party as a working title I think they need a new name, mainly to move on from the current shitshow but also because it sounds a bit daft in interviews.
Lossail is definitely the pick of the Arab F1 tracks, nice that they've made a proper circuit rather than the unable to pass street circuit rubbish that normally does for night races
The Times is going big on a substantial increase in rateable values of pubs, shops etc - which is going to lead to big increases in business rates - the net effect is completely contrary to what Reeves announced:
"In her budget speech Reeves boasted that she was introducing a “new golden era for hospitality” as she outlined “permanently lower tax rates for over 750,000 retail, hospitality and leisure properties”.
She announced a new tiered system for business rates, with the tax charge varying depending on the size and value of a company’s premises. Reeves told MPs that the new regime would deliver “the lowest tax rates since 1991” for high street pubs, shops and restaurants.
However, on the same day as the chancellor’s statement, a separate government agency slipped out a new, much higher assessment of the value of the buildings used to calculate business rates, meaning the levy will actually increase significantly next year for the average high street business.
The chancellor also failed to mention to MPs that the 40 per cent discount on business rates, which many shops, pubs, restaurants have been benefiting from since the pandemic, ends in April.
Together, these two changes more than wipe out any benefit from the reforms Reeves announced in the budget."
"Prepare next for the great sell: a wave of propaganda rolling soon in our direction, praising Trump, the inspired bringer of peace, brushing aside petty concerns about geography, missiles and tank divisions. Brace for the reassuring, conciliatory speech from a smiling Putin, so eagerly quoted by diminished Western leaders. We will be fed heartwarming stories of returning villagers and of churches being restored; a new age of peace and amity with Russia will be proclaimed. Believe not a word.
"Maybe, in the end, this was all inevitable. Small states can defeat great ones – Vietnam, Afghanistan – but they are the exception, and they are rarely neighbours of their greater enemies. Mostly, might prevails. This is what Donald Trump thinks, and this is what Vladimir Putin thinks. And with the vast power of Xi Jinping’s China watching it all, they are in the driving seat. If this capitulation is imposed, that is the big lesson to remember: there are no reliable international rules or norms any more. If you are part of the world of smaller nations, tool up, onshore what industries you can, start filling the sandbags. Because history is back, and our enemies are coming, one day, for us."
A deeply depressing and worryingly credible article, except for this: like so many others it denies Ukrainian agency or resilience.
Yes Ukraine has been battered and had a pretty horrendous 3 years, but I know enough Ukrainians to know the post-war picture the writer paints underestimates their part in building a future.
They need EU membership, and the EU needs Ukraine. Putin may shrug it off casually, but it’s the path to a happier future for the country.
"Prepare next for the great sell: a wave of propaganda rolling soon in our direction, praising Trump, the inspired bringer of peace, brushing aside petty concerns about geography, missiles and tank divisions. Brace for the reassuring, conciliatory speech from a smiling Putin, so eagerly quoted by diminished Western leaders. We will be fed heartwarming stories of returning villagers and of churches being restored; a new age of peace and amity with Russia will be proclaimed. Believe not a word.
"Maybe, in the end, this was all inevitable. Small states can defeat great ones – Vietnam, Afghanistan – but they are the exception, and they are rarely neighbours of their greater enemies. Mostly, might prevails. This is what Donald Trump thinks, and this is what Vladimir Putin thinks. And with the vast power of Xi Jinping’s China watching it all, they are in the driving seat. If this capitulation is imposed, that is the big lesson to remember: there are no reliable international rules or norms any more. If you are part of the world of smaller nations, tool up, onshore what industries you can, start filling the sandbags. Because history is back, and our enemies are coming, one day, for us."
"Prepare next for the great sell: a wave of propaganda rolling soon in our direction, praising Trump, the inspired bringer of peace, brushing aside petty concerns about geography, missiles and tank divisions. Brace for the reassuring, conciliatory speech from a smiling Putin, so eagerly quoted by diminished Western leaders. We will be fed heartwarming stories of returning villagers and of churches being restored; a new age of peace and amity with Russia will be proclaimed. Believe not a word.
"Maybe, in the end, this was all inevitable. Small states can defeat great ones – Vietnam, Afghanistan – but they are the exception, and they are rarely neighbours of their greater enemies. Mostly, might prevails. This is what Donald Trump thinks, and this is what Vladimir Putin thinks. And with the vast power of Xi Jinping’s China watching it all, they are in the driving seat. If this capitulation is imposed, that is the big lesson to remember: there are no reliable international rules or norms any more. If you are part of the world of smaller nations, tool up, onshore what industries you can, start filling the sandbags. Because history is back, and our enemies are coming, one day, for us."
Something else to chew on (By David Runciman, Hon Prof of Politics, Cambridge Uni)
"For decades the Japanese health ministry has released an annual tally of citizens aged one hundred or over. This year the number of centenarians reached very nearly a hundred thousand. When the survey started in 1963, there were just 153. In 1981 there were a thousand; in 1998 ten thousand. Japan now produces more nappies for incontinent adults than for infants. There is a burgeoning industry for the cleaning and fumigating of apartments in which elderly Japanese citizens have died and been left undiscovered for weeks, months or years."
Thinking about it, helps to explain Putin. Russia, like Japan, is stuffed demographically. Last chance to do something, especially in face of possible German rearmament. Those Baltic States are going to just hand themselves over by themselves. And you can't easily unwind a war economy.
If we want to talk long term demographics, it's not looking good for China thanks to the one-child policy. The median age in both China and Russia is 40.3 years, in the UK it's 40.1, in the US it's 38.5, in Brazil 34.8, in India 28.8 and in Nigeria 18.1 years. The future global superpowers are likely India and Nigeria - the dawning of the equatorial age perhaps though will climate age promote more northward and southward migration - remember, 85% of humanity lives north of the equator and only 15% south.
Maybe our government should start financially incentivising people to have 3 children.
If that is a Rentoul prediction ignore. He's always wrong. I can only look doe eyed in admiration.
Listen to todays Any Questions. Particularly Lucy Rigby who I thought was particularly impressive. If Racel goes it will because Starmer has already gone
As far as I can see, it's 20% of Labour MPs nominating an individual which triggers a leadership election so 81 MPs whereas it's 15% of Conservatives (a somewhat smaller number - 18?).
Are there that many MPs willing to put their heads above the parapet and is there an obvious individual?
In truth, such contests rarely achieve the change at the time desired by those doing the challenging - Thatcher only went because she didn't win well enough under the arcane Conservative rules of the time but, apart from IDS, I struggle to think of a leader who has lost a challenge or confidence vote - actually, I think Corbyn did, or did he?
The problem is when the leader appears not to have enjoyed the enthusiuastic endorsement of his/her colleagues. Thatcher got 314 votes in the challenge from Sir Anthony Meyer but thst still meant 60 MPs didn't vote for her. May got 200 MPs to back her but 117 didn't and Johnson only won 211-148. Arguably, both were damaged perhaps irrevocably by the votes and the perceptions of division and discontent within the ranks.
That's the risk for Starmer - not defeat per se but a modest victory. I'd argue if he won 255-150 he would be compromised whereas if the margin were, for example, 355-50, he could probably find his position strengthened.
Funnily enough Johnson's MP fans claimed May's vote meant she should go anyway, but with his victory which was similar in scale it meant the issue should be closed.
The Times is going big on a substantial increase in rateable values of pubs, shops etc - which is going to lead to big increases in business rates - the net effect is completely contrary to what Reeves announced:
"In her budget speech Reeves boasted that she was introducing a “new golden era for hospitality” as she outlined “permanently lower tax rates for over 750,000 retail, hospitality and leisure properties”.
She announced a new tiered system for business rates, with the tax charge varying depending on the size and value of a company’s premises. Reeves told MPs that the new regime would deliver “the lowest tax rates since 1991” for high street pubs, shops and restaurants.
However, on the same day as the chancellor’s statement, a separate government agency slipped out a new, much higher assessment of the value of the buildings used to calculate business rates, meaning the levy will actually increase significantly next year for the average high street business.
The chancellor also failed to mention to MPs that the 40 per cent discount on business rates, which many shops, pubs, restaurants have been benefiting from since the pandemic, ends in April.
Together, these two changes more than wipe out any benefit from the reforms Reeves announced in the budget."
Yes, the rates relief from which the hospitality industry has benefited, was never going to last forever.
It's a useful source of income to which councils have been denied but it's swings and roundabouts of course.
When I was in local Government, we appealed all the VOA assessments on our properties and employed a rating consultant to take up the appeals on our behalf and their fee was based on a share of the total reductions achieved and let's just say both the Council and the Consultant did well out of it.
IF you get the assessment reduced, you get a nice refund even if you have to pay the inflated assessment for a few months.
I imagine the larger chains of pubs and restaurants are already working on this - there's an interesting document on how racecourses are assessed for rating purposes.
"Prepare next for the great sell: a wave of propaganda rolling soon in our direction, praising Trump, the inspired bringer of peace, brushing aside petty concerns about geography, missiles and tank divisions. Brace for the reassuring, conciliatory speech from a smiling Putin, so eagerly quoted by diminished Western leaders. We will be fed heartwarming stories of returning villagers and of churches being restored; a new age of peace and amity with Russia will be proclaimed. Believe not a word.
"Maybe, in the end, this was all inevitable. Small states can defeat great ones – Vietnam, Afghanistan – but they are the exception, and they are rarely neighbours of their greater enemies. Mostly, might prevails. This is what Donald Trump thinks, and this is what Vladimir Putin thinks. And with the vast power of Xi Jinping’s China watching it all, they are in the driving seat. If this capitulation is imposed, that is the big lesson to remember: there are no reliable international rules or norms any more. If you are part of the world of smaller nations, tool up, onshore what industries you can, start filling the sandbags. Because history is back, and our enemies are coming, one day, for us."
Something else to chew on (By David Runciman, Hon Prof of Politics, Cambridge Uni)
"For decades the Japanese health ministry has released an annual tally of citizens aged one hundred or over. This year the number of centenarians reached very nearly a hundred thousand. When the survey started in 1963, there were just 153. In 1981 there were a thousand; in 1998 ten thousand. Japan now produces more nappies for incontinent adults than for infants. There is a burgeoning industry for the cleaning and fumigating of apartments in which elderly Japanese citizens have died and been left undiscovered for weeks, months or years."
Thinking about it, helps to explain Putin. Russia, like Japan, is stuffed demographically. Last chance to do something, especially in face of possible German rearmament. Those Baltic States are going to just hand themselves over by themselves. And you can't easily unwind a war economy.
If we want to talk long term demographics, it's not looking good for China thanks to the one-child policy. The median age in both China and Russia is 40.3 years, in the UK it's 40.1, in the US it's 38.5, in Brazil 34.8, in India 28.8 and in Nigeria 18.1 years. The future global superpowers are likely India and Nigeria - the dawning of the equatorial age perhaps though will climate age promote more northward and southward migration - remember, 85% of humanity lives north of the equator and only 15% south.
Maybe our government should start financially incentivising people to have 3 children.
Do government incentives work? Several places have put in place policies to support such, but I'm not sure if they have been particularly effective. Hasn't China's birth rate reduced even after scrapping the one child policy?
Seems like if there's things governments can do to get birth rates up it is much harder, systemic stuff which they don't have the time, will, or support to do (like making housing cheaper etc).
"Prepare next for the great sell: a wave of propaganda rolling soon in our direction, praising Trump, the inspired bringer of peace, brushing aside petty concerns about geography, missiles and tank divisions. Brace for the reassuring, conciliatory speech from a smiling Putin, so eagerly quoted by diminished Western leaders. We will be fed heartwarming stories of returning villagers and of churches being restored; a new age of peace and amity with Russia will be proclaimed. Believe not a word.
"Maybe, in the end, this was all inevitable. Small states can defeat great ones – Vietnam, Afghanistan – but they are the exception, and they are rarely neighbours of their greater enemies. Mostly, might prevails. This is what Donald Trump thinks, and this is what Vladimir Putin thinks. And with the vast power of Xi Jinping’s China watching it all, they are in the driving seat. If this capitulation is imposed, that is the big lesson to remember: there are no reliable international rules or norms any more. If you are part of the world of smaller nations, tool up, onshore what industries you can, start filling the sandbags. Because history is back, and our enemies are coming, one day, for us."
Something else to chew on (By David Runciman, Hon Prof of Politics, Cambridge Uni)
"For decades the Japanese health ministry has released an annual tally of citizens aged one hundred or over. This year the number of centenarians reached very nearly a hundred thousand. When the survey started in 1963, there were just 153. In 1981 there were a thousand; in 1998 ten thousand. Japan now produces more nappies for incontinent adults than for infants. There is a burgeoning industry for the cleaning and fumigating of apartments in which elderly Japanese citizens have died and been left undiscovered for weeks, months or years."
Thinking about it, helps to explain Putin. Russia, like Japan, is stuffed demographically. Last chance to do something, especially in face of possible German rearmament. Those Baltic States are going to just hand themselves over by themselves. And you can't easily unwind a war economy.
If we want to talk long term demographics, it's not looking good for China thanks to the one-child policy. The median age in both China and Russia is 40.3 years, in the UK it's 40.1, in the US it's 38.5, in Brazil 34.8, in India 28.8 and in Nigeria 18.1 years. The future global superpowers are likely India and Nigeria - the dawning of the equatorial age perhaps though will climate age promote more northward and southward migration - remember, 85% of humanity lives north of the equator and only 15% south.
Peter Zeihan has been predicting Chinese collapse for some time. Here's 10 minutes on it from a couple of years ago. Worth a watch. Maybe it's all cracking underneath the inscrutable Xi veneer. And, actually, how many Chinese are there?
Clearly Zara's move is unhelpful and will dominate the reports in the media. That said, I've been watching most of the conference online (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-755kRtHWdw) and it's overwhelmingly polite and friendly - Lee's Harpin's description of "chaos" is just silly.
Your Party is a very silly name. It's lazy. We are whatever 'you' want us to be.
They should say what they are, and give people something to rally to.
Possibly the issue is that there's not really anything there they think people will want to rally to.
Having quite liked Your Party as a working title I think they need a new name, mainly to move on from the current shitshow but also because it sounds a bit daft in interviews.
"Prepare next for the great sell: a wave of propaganda rolling soon in our direction, praising Trump, the inspired bringer of peace, brushing aside petty concerns about geography, missiles and tank divisions. Brace for the reassuring, conciliatory speech from a smiling Putin, so eagerly quoted by diminished Western leaders. We will be fed heartwarming stories of returning villagers and of churches being restored; a new age of peace and amity with Russia will be proclaimed. Believe not a word.
"Maybe, in the end, this was all inevitable. Small states can defeat great ones – Vietnam, Afghanistan – but they are the exception, and they are rarely neighbours of their greater enemies. Mostly, might prevails. This is what Donald Trump thinks, and this is what Vladimir Putin thinks. And with the vast power of Xi Jinping’s China watching it all, they are in the driving seat. If this capitulation is imposed, that is the big lesson to remember: there are no reliable international rules or norms any more. If you are part of the world of smaller nations, tool up, onshore what industries you can, start filling the sandbags. Because history is back, and our enemies are coming, one day, for us."
Yep, depressing stuff.
It does not match the analysis of the Institute for the Study or War, upon which I would place a lot more reliance.
"Prepare next for the great sell: a wave of propaganda rolling soon in our direction, praising Trump, the inspired bringer of peace, brushing aside petty concerns about geography, missiles and tank divisions. Brace for the reassuring, conciliatory speech from a smiling Putin, so eagerly quoted by diminished Western leaders. We will be fed heartwarming stories of returning villagers and of churches being restored; a new age of peace and amity with Russia will be proclaimed. Believe not a word.
"Maybe, in the end, this was all inevitable. Small states can defeat great ones – Vietnam, Afghanistan – but they are the exception, and they are rarely neighbours of their greater enemies. Mostly, might prevails. This is what Donald Trump thinks, and this is what Vladimir Putin thinks. And with the vast power of Xi Jinping’s China watching it all, they are in the driving seat. If this capitulation is imposed, that is the big lesson to remember: there are no reliable international rules or norms any more. If you are part of the world of smaller nations, tool up, onshore what industries you can, start filling the sandbags. Because history is back, and our enemies are coming, one day, for us."
Yep, depressing stuff.
It does not match the analysis of the Institute for the Study or War, upon which I would place a lot more reliance.
Russia continues to make tiny gains of territory, at dreadful cost.
The specifics of the campaign prospects are not as depressing as Trump and co being desperate to screw Ukraine over so they can play the 'peacemaker'. However that manifests, and it may not be as bad as the worst case scenarios, it is unlikely to be positive, and would still signal that if you are willing to employ the meat grinder approach you can as dictator be rewarded by the international community, even if not as much as you wanted.
"Prepare next for the great sell: a wave of propaganda rolling soon in our direction, praising Trump, the inspired bringer of peace, brushing aside petty concerns about geography, missiles and tank divisions. Brace for the reassuring, conciliatory speech from a smiling Putin, so eagerly quoted by diminished Western leaders. We will be fed heartwarming stories of returning villagers and of churches being restored; a new age of peace and amity with Russia will be proclaimed. Believe not a word.
"Maybe, in the end, this was all inevitable. Small states can defeat great ones – Vietnam, Afghanistan – but they are the exception, and they are rarely neighbours of their greater enemies. Mostly, might prevails. This is what Donald Trump thinks, and this is what Vladimir Putin thinks. And with the vast power of Xi Jinping’s China watching it all, they are in the driving seat. If this capitulation is imposed, that is the big lesson to remember: there are no reliable international rules or norms any more. If you are part of the world of smaller nations, tool up, onshore what industries you can, start filling the sandbags. Because history is back, and our enemies are coming, one day, for us."
Yep, depressing stuff.
It does not match the analysis of the Institute for the Study or War, upon which I would place a lot more reliance.
Clearly Zara's move is unhelpful and will dominate the reports in the media. That said, I've been watching most of the conference online (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-755kRtHWdw) and it's overwhelmingly polite and friendly - Lee's Harpin's description of "chaos" is just silly.
Your Party is a very silly name. It's lazy. We are whatever 'you' want us to be.
They should say what they are, and give people something to rally to.
Possibly the issue is that there's not really anything there they think people will want to rally to.
Having quite liked Your Party as a working title I think they need a new name, mainly to move on from the current shitshow but also because it sounds a bit daft in interviews.
"Prepare next for the great sell: a wave of propaganda rolling soon in our direction, praising Trump, the inspired bringer of peace, brushing aside petty concerns about geography, missiles and tank divisions. Brace for the reassuring, conciliatory speech from a smiling Putin, so eagerly quoted by diminished Western leaders. We will be fed heartwarming stories of returning villagers and of churches being restored; a new age of peace and amity with Russia will be proclaimed. Believe not a word.
"Maybe, in the end, this was all inevitable. Small states can defeat great ones – Vietnam, Afghanistan – but they are the exception, and they are rarely neighbours of their greater enemies. Mostly, might prevails. This is what Donald Trump thinks, and this is what Vladimir Putin thinks. And with the vast power of Xi Jinping’s China watching it all, they are in the driving seat. If this capitulation is imposed, that is the big lesson to remember: there are no reliable international rules or norms any more. If you are part of the world of smaller nations, tool up, onshore what industries you can, start filling the sandbags. Because history is back, and our enemies are coming, one day, for us."
Something else to chew on (By David Runciman, Hon Prof of Politics, Cambridge Uni)
"For decades the Japanese health ministry has released an annual tally of citizens aged one hundred or over. This year the number of centenarians reached very nearly a hundred thousand. When the survey started in 1963, there were just 153. In 1981 there were a thousand; in 1998 ten thousand. Japan now produces more nappies for incontinent adults than for infants. There is a burgeoning industry for the cleaning and fumigating of apartments in which elderly Japanese citizens have died and been left undiscovered for weeks, months or years."
Thinking about it, helps to explain Putin. Russia, like Japan, is stuffed demographically. Last chance to do something, especially in face of possible German rearmament. Those Baltic States are going to just hand themselves over by themselves. And you can't easily unwind a war economy.
If we want to talk long term demographics, it's not looking good for China thanks to the one-child policy. The median age in both China and Russia is 40.3 years, in the UK it's 40.1, in the US it's 38.5, in Brazil 34.8, in India 28.8 and in Nigeria 18.1 years. The future global superpowers are likely India and Nigeria - the dawning of the equatorial age perhaps though will climate age promote more northward and southward migration - remember, 85% of humanity lives north of the equator and only 15% south.
Peter Zeihan has been predicting Chinese collapse for some time. Here's 10 minutes on it from a couple of years ago. Worth a watch. Maybe it's all cracking underneath the inscrutable Xi veneer. And, actually, how many Chinese are there?
Indeed - I don't have his knowledge but my sense is after decades of impressive (if officially inflated) growth numbers, China is going to hit the same problems as any other developed economy in terms of demographics and the expectations of the population. How the political/economic system copes with these changes over the next few decades I've no clue.
"Prepare next for the great sell: a wave of propaganda rolling soon in our direction, praising Trump, the inspired bringer of peace, brushing aside petty concerns about geography, missiles and tank divisions. Brace for the reassuring, conciliatory speech from a smiling Putin, so eagerly quoted by diminished Western leaders. We will be fed heartwarming stories of returning villagers and of churches being restored; a new age of peace and amity with Russia will be proclaimed. Believe not a word.
"Maybe, in the end, this was all inevitable. Small states can defeat great ones – Vietnam, Afghanistan – but they are the exception, and they are rarely neighbours of their greater enemies. Mostly, might prevails. This is what Donald Trump thinks, and this is what Vladimir Putin thinks. And with the vast power of Xi Jinping’s China watching it all, they are in the driving seat. If this capitulation is imposed, that is the big lesson to remember: there are no reliable international rules or norms any more. If you are part of the world of smaller nations, tool up, onshore what industries you can, start filling the sandbags. Because history is back, and our enemies are coming, one day, for us."
Something else to chew on (By David Runciman, Hon Prof of Politics, Cambridge Uni)
"For decades the Japanese health ministry has released an annual tally of citizens aged one hundred or over. This year the number of centenarians reached very nearly a hundred thousand. When the survey started in 1963, there were just 153. In 1981 there were a thousand; in 1998 ten thousand. Japan now produces more nappies for incontinent adults than for infants. There is a burgeoning industry for the cleaning and fumigating of apartments in which elderly Japanese citizens have died and been left undiscovered for weeks, months or years."
Thinking about it, helps to explain Putin. Russia, like Japan, is stuffed demographically. Last chance to do something, especially in face of possible German rearmament. Those Baltic States are going to just hand themselves over by themselves. And you can't easily unwind a war economy.
If we want to talk long term demographics, it's not looking good for China thanks to the one-child policy. The median age in both China and Russia is 40.3 years, in the UK it's 40.1, in the US it's 38.5, in Brazil 34.8, in India 28.8 and in Nigeria 18.1 years. The future global superpowers are likely India and Nigeria - the dawning of the equatorial age perhaps though will climate age promote more northward and southward migration - remember, 85% of humanity lives north of the equator and only 15% south.
India maybe not Nigeria though its gdp will grow its gdp per capita won’t as much, it also doesn’t have the size of military India has not yet nukes
As far as I can see, it's 20% of Labour MPs nominating an individual which triggers a leadership election so 81 MPs whereas it's 15% of Conservatives (a somewhat smaller number - 18?).
Are there that many MPs willing to put their heads above the parapet and is there an obvious individual?
In truth, such contests rarely achieve the change at the time desired by those doing the challenging - Thatcher only went because she didn't win well enough under the arcane Conservative rules of the time but, apart from IDS, I struggle to think of a leader who has lost a challenge or confidence vote - actually, I think Corbyn did, or did he?
The problem is when the leader appears not to have enjoyed the enthusiuastic endorsement of his/her colleagues. Thatcher got 314 votes in the challenge from Sir Anthony Meyer but thst still meant 60 MPs didn't vote for her. May got 200 MPs to back her but 117 didn't and Johnson only won 211-148. Arguably, both were damaged perhaps irrevocably by the votes and the perceptions of division and discontent within the ranks.
That's the risk for Starmer - not defeat per se but a modest victory. I'd argue if he won 255-150 he would be compromised whereas if the margin were, for example, 355-50, he could probably find his position strengthened.
Labour MPs do NOT elect Labour leaders, Labour members do. Labour MPs don’t even pick the last two like Tory MPs only nominate candidates
"Prepare next for the great sell: a wave of propaganda rolling soon in our direction, praising Trump, the inspired bringer of peace, brushing aside petty concerns about geography, missiles and tank divisions. Brace for the reassuring, conciliatory speech from a smiling Putin, so eagerly quoted by diminished Western leaders. We will be fed heartwarming stories of returning villagers and of churches being restored; a new age of peace and amity with Russia will be proclaimed. Believe not a word.
"Maybe, in the end, this was all inevitable. Small states can defeat great ones – Vietnam, Afghanistan – but they are the exception, and they are rarely neighbours of their greater enemies. Mostly, might prevails. This is what Donald Trump thinks, and this is what Vladimir Putin thinks. And with the vast power of Xi Jinping’s China watching it all, they are in the driving seat. If this capitulation is imposed, that is the big lesson to remember: there are no reliable international rules or norms any more. If you are part of the world of smaller nations, tool up, onshore what industries you can, start filling the sandbags. Because history is back, and our enemies are coming, one day, for us."
Yep, depressing stuff.
It does not match the analysis of the Institute for the Study or War, upon which I would place a lot more reliance.
Clearly Zara's move is unhelpful and will dominate the reports in the media. That said, I've been watching most of the conference online (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-755kRtHWdw) and it's overwhelmingly polite and friendly - Lee's Harpin's description of "chaos" is just silly.
Your Party is a very silly name. It's lazy. We are whatever 'you' want us to be.
They should say what they are, and give people something to rally to.
Possibly the issue is that there's not really anything there they think people will want to rally to.
It was an interim name - the long-term name will be decided tomorrow.
With “Your Party” one of the options and likely to win.
It used to be said that the old Liberal party had so few MPs that they could fit in the back of a taxi. At least they were willing to share the same vehicle. After more than five years of plotting, Jeremy Corbyn’s Your Party is finally holding its first conference in Liverpool this weekend. The run-up to the event was overshadowed by not one, but two, MPs exiting the six-strong ‘Independence Alliance’ in the House of Commons.
"Prepare next for the great sell: a wave of propaganda rolling soon in our direction, praising Trump, the inspired bringer of peace, brushing aside petty concerns about geography, missiles and tank divisions. Brace for the reassuring, conciliatory speech from a smiling Putin, so eagerly quoted by diminished Western leaders. We will be fed heartwarming stories of returning villagers and of churches being restored; a new age of peace and amity with Russia will be proclaimed. Believe not a word.
"Maybe, in the end, this was all inevitable. Small states can defeat great ones – Vietnam, Afghanistan – but they are the exception, and they are rarely neighbours of their greater enemies. Mostly, might prevails. This is what Donald Trump thinks, and this is what Vladimir Putin thinks. And with the vast power of Xi Jinping’s China watching it all, they are in the driving seat. If this capitulation is imposed, that is the big lesson to remember: there are no reliable international rules or norms any more. If you are part of the world of smaller nations, tool up, onshore what industries you can, start filling the sandbags. Because history is back, and our enemies are coming, one day, for us."
Yep, depressing stuff.
It does not match the analysis of the Institute for the Study or War, upon which I would place a lot more reliance.
"Prepare next for the great sell: a wave of propaganda rolling soon in our direction, praising Trump, the inspired bringer of peace, brushing aside petty concerns about geography, missiles and tank divisions. Brace for the reassuring, conciliatory speech from a smiling Putin, so eagerly quoted by diminished Western leaders. We will be fed heartwarming stories of returning villagers and of churches being restored; a new age of peace and amity with Russia will be proclaimed. Believe not a word.
"Maybe, in the end, this was all inevitable. Small states can defeat great ones – Vietnam, Afghanistan – but they are the exception, and they are rarely neighbours of their greater enemies. Mostly, might prevails. This is what Donald Trump thinks, and this is what Vladimir Putin thinks. And with the vast power of Xi Jinping’s China watching it all, they are in the driving seat. If this capitulation is imposed, that is the big lesson to remember: there are no reliable international rules or norms any more. If you are part of the world of smaller nations, tool up, onshore what industries you can, start filling the sandbags. Because history is back, and our enemies are coming, one day, for us."
Something else to chew on (By David Runciman, Hon Prof of Politics, Cambridge Uni)
"For decades the Japanese health ministry has released an annual tally of citizens aged one hundred or over. This year the number of centenarians reached very nearly a hundred thousand. When the survey started in 1963, there were just 153. In 1981 there were a thousand; in 1998 ten thousand. Japan now produces more nappies for incontinent adults than for infants. There is a burgeoning industry for the cleaning and fumigating of apartments in which elderly Japanese citizens have died and been left undiscovered for weeks, months or years."
Thinking about it, helps to explain Putin. Russia, like Japan, is stuffed demographically. Last chance to do something, especially in face of possible German rearmament. Those Baltic States are going to just hand themselves over by themselves. And you can't easily unwind a war economy.
The incontience thing has been true for at least 20 years.
Off topic - What is Reeves doing with the pension tax stuff. Just making tax law up on the hoof with no parliamentary oversight, query or well anything; just extraordinary tbh
How many people have to die for the American oil industry? I cannot believe they will control the whole territory so it'll be hold the oil fields and drone the provinces alla Syria. Then Cuba just before November 2028.
One of the strange features of this is that Chevron still operate in Venezuela, as do ENI (Italian oil company).
I don't see Trump invading; it will be air attacks and a hope that the Venezuelan Government caves in. There may be some CIA targeted assassinations.
One other emerging item is that the USN finished off survivors of a missile attack on a boat from Venezuela with a second attack:
While the first strike appeared to disable the boat and cause deaths, the military assessed there were survivors, according to the sources. The second attack killed the remaining crew on board, bringing the total death toll to 11, and sunk the ship.
"Prepare next for the great sell: a wave of propaganda rolling soon in our direction, praising Trump, the inspired bringer of peace, brushing aside petty concerns about geography, missiles and tank divisions. Brace for the reassuring, conciliatory speech from a smiling Putin, so eagerly quoted by diminished Western leaders. We will be fed heartwarming stories of returning villagers and of churches being restored; a new age of peace and amity with Russia will be proclaimed. Believe not a word.
"Maybe, in the end, this was all inevitable. Small states can defeat great ones – Vietnam, Afghanistan – but they are the exception, and they are rarely neighbours of their greater enemies. Mostly, might prevails. This is what Donald Trump thinks, and this is what Vladimir Putin thinks. And with the vast power of Xi Jinping’s China watching it all, they are in the driving seat. If this capitulation is imposed, that is the big lesson to remember: there are no reliable international rules or norms any more. If you are part of the world of smaller nations, tool up, onshore what industries you can, start filling the sandbags. Because history is back, and our enemies are coming, one day, for us."
A ridiculously fatalistic view.
Our future lies in our own hands, together with Europe. Suggesting that we should just wring our hands as Trump sells us out is contemptible.
According to the Wall Street Journal, a European intelligence service has already circulated internal assessments about “commercial and economic plans” the Trump team has been exploring with Russia behind closed doors. That report sent shockwaves through capitals across the continent. It confirmed what many in Europe feared. Trump is moving toward a geopolitical deal with Moscow that would undermine Europe’s security architecture at its core.
European officials, speaking privately, say the reaction inside Europe is no longer measured. It is urgent. The working assumption is simple. If Trump signals recognition of Russia’s territorial claims, Europe must treat it as a strategic emergency... https://x.com/Microinteracti1/status/1994787234948526430
The Gaza Party is what it should call itself. It's the only thing they really care about and it would at least have the virtue of honesty.
Some do, which is fair enough. Some are just the usual cranks latching on to a cause to suck in supporters for their imagined revolution. Like they always do.
WSJ with a devastating, intensely-sourced article demonstrating how Trump, Kushner, and Witkoff tried to sellout Ukraine, the U.S., and Europe for money. It's so bad one of our European allies shared evidence of the planned business deals. A must-read. https://x.com/hissgoescobra/status/1994607456979489248
I hope Your Party never work out their differences, their squabbling has been hilarious.
What I cannot figure out is whether it's members have been genuniely surprised that left wing factional infighting exists, since they have seemed shocked by it.
Surely that’s why they have joined, signing up in anticipation?
If Sultana joins Polanski then Jez may as well go back to his allotment.
It's over.
Does Polanski want every fruit and nut to join?
Anyone who’ll believe that he can hypnotise some voluptuous financial figures
While everyone in Whitehall and surroundings is focussed on Sun story of breast enlargements the Greens are marching up the polls.
Labour may well be facing a once in a century wipe out.
The next election could be Reform v Green.
Which would be utterly depressing.
In one universe, it could be Reform as the left wing option with Union support, and Tories as the right wing option. That would be a country that would prosper.
If Sultana joins Polanski then Jez may as well go back to his allotment.
It's over.
Does Polanski want every fruit and nut to join?
Anyone who’ll believe that he can hypnotise some voluptuous financial figures
While everyone in Whitehall and surroundings is focussed on Sun story of breast enlargements the Greens are marching up the polls.
Labour may well be facing a once in a century wipe out.
The next election could be Reform v Green.
Which would be utterly depressing.
In one universe, it could be Reform as the left wing option with Union support, and Tories as the right wing option. That would be a country that would prosper.
"Prepare next for the great sell: a wave of propaganda rolling soon in our direction, praising Trump, the inspired bringer of peace, brushing aside petty concerns about geography, missiles and tank divisions. Brace for the reassuring, conciliatory speech from a smiling Putin, so eagerly quoted by diminished Western leaders. We will be fed heartwarming stories of returning villagers and of churches being restored; a new age of peace and amity with Russia will be proclaimed. Believe not a word.
"Maybe, in the end, this was all inevitable. Small states can defeat great ones – Vietnam, Afghanistan – but they are the exception, and they are rarely neighbours of their greater enemies. Mostly, might prevails. This is what Donald Trump thinks, and this is what Vladimir Putin thinks. And with the vast power of Xi Jinping’s China watching it all, they are in the driving seat. If this capitulation is imposed, that is the big lesson to remember: there are no reliable international rules or norms any more. If you are part of the world of smaller nations, tool up, onshore what industries you can, start filling the sandbags. Because history is back, and our enemies are coming, one day, for us."
Something else to chew on (By David Runciman, Hon Prof of Politics, Cambridge Uni)
"For decades the Japanese health ministry has released an annual tally of citizens aged one hundred or over. This year the number of centenarians reached very nearly a hundred thousand. When the survey started in 1963, there were just 153. In 1981 there were a thousand; in 1998 ten thousand. Japan now produces more nappies for incontinent adults than for infants. There is a burgeoning industry for the cleaning and fumigating of apartments in which elderly Japanese citizens have died and been left undiscovered for weeks, months or years."
Thinking about it, helps to explain Putin. Russia, like Japan, is stuffed demographically. Last chance to do something, especially in face of possible German rearmament. Those Baltic States are going to just hand themselves over by themselves. And you can't easily unwind a war economy.
If we want to talk long term demographics, it's not looking good for China thanks to the one-child policy. The median age in both China and Russia is 40.3 years, in the UK it's 40.1, in the US it's 38.5, in Brazil 34.8, in India 28.8 and in Nigeria 18.1 years. The future global superpowers are likely India and Nigeria - the dawning of the equatorial age perhaps though will climate age promote more northward and southward migration - remember, 85% of humanity lives north of the equator and only 15% south.
Peter Zeihan has been predicting Chinese collapse for some time. Here's 10 minutes on it from a couple of years ago. Worth a watch. Maybe it's all cracking underneath the inscrutable Xi veneer. And, actually, how many Chinese are there?
Indeed - I don't have his knowledge but my sense is after decades of impressive (if officially inflated) growth numbers, China is going to hit the same problems as any other developed economy in terms of demographics and the expectations of the population. How the political/economic system copes with these changes over the next few decades I've no clue.
Having watched one of Peter Zeihan's videos on China - which I thought was quite interesting - youtube is now bombarding me with videos on the travails and imminent collapse of China (and also, oddly, on the iniquities of the Chinese dating scene). It's fascinating that this sub-genre exists. They range from sober and plausible to so wild that it is hard to take them seriously. I also get the odd channel presented by a westerner which is so wildly partisan in favour of how well-governed China is, and how feeble the west is, that they are clearly funded by the CCP. Which in turn raises some questions about the "China is about to collapse" videos. That said, I was very much in the 'China is on borrowed time' camp to start with. I quite enjoy the 'China's population is about one third of official figures' conspiracy, but that doesn't mean I believe it. I do suspect the population is less than claimed - but surely not THAT much less?
WSJ with a devastating, intensely-sourced article demonstrating how Trump, Kushner, and Witkoff tried to sellout Ukraine, the U.S., and Europe for money. It's so bad one of our European allies shared evidence of the planned business deals. A must-read. https://x.com/hissgoescobra/status/1994607456979489248
If Sultana joins Polanski then Jez may as well go back to his allotment.
It's over.
Does Polanski want every fruit and nut to join?
Anyone who’ll believe that he can hypnotise some voluptuous financial figures
While everyone in Whitehall and surroundings is focussed on Sun story of breast enlargements the Greens are marching up the polls.
Labour may well be facing a once in a century wipe out.
The next election could be Reform v Green.
Which would be utterly depressing.
The mortals said we were all bored with the centrist consensus, and wanted something different, new and exciting.
So the gods cursed the mortals in the way they always do... by giving them exactly what they said they wanted.
(I don't think it will happen, not this time anyway, for all that Polanski has said he wants a deathmatch against Farage, who I am sure would be up for it. But it's far too plausible, and it will serve the rest of us right if it does.)
WSJ with a devastating, intensely-sourced article demonstrating how Trump, Kushner, and Witkoff tried to sellout Ukraine, the U.S., and Europe for money. It's so bad one of our European allies shared evidence of the planned business deals. A must-read. https://x.com/hissgoescobra/status/1994607456979489248
I’m shocked.
Shocked, I tell you.
I’m surprised Poland is willing to let Ukraine crumble. If Russia gets their claws into the Ukrainian political system again then it’s a threat to Poland from the south.
If Sultana joins Polanski then Jez may as well go back to his allotment.
It's over.
Does Polanski want every fruit and nut to join?
Anyone who’ll believe that he can hypnotise some voluptuous financial figures
While everyone in Whitehall and surroundings is focussed on Sun story of breast enlargements the Greens are marching up the polls.
Labour may well be facing a once in a century wipe out.
The next election could be Reform v Green.
Which would be utterly depressing.
In one universe, it could be Reform as the left wing option with Union support, and Tories as the right wing option. That would be a country that would prosper.
I've been considering that. It doesn't strike me as likely. But it's certainly plausible, in terms of seats at least.
"Prepare next for the great sell: a wave of propaganda rolling soon in our direction, praising Trump, the inspired bringer of peace, brushing aside petty concerns about geography, missiles and tank divisions. Brace for the reassuring, conciliatory speech from a smiling Putin, so eagerly quoted by diminished Western leaders. We will be fed heartwarming stories of returning villagers and of churches being restored; a new age of peace and amity with Russia will be proclaimed. Believe not a word.
"Maybe, in the end, this was all inevitable. Small states can defeat great ones – Vietnam, Afghanistan – but they are the exception, and they are rarely neighbours of their greater enemies. Mostly, might prevails. This is what Donald Trump thinks, and this is what Vladimir Putin thinks. And with the vast power of Xi Jinping’s China watching it all, they are in the driving seat. If this capitulation is imposed, that is the big lesson to remember: there are no reliable international rules or norms any more. If you are part of the world of smaller nations, tool up, onshore what industries you can, start filling the sandbags. Because history is back, and our enemies are coming, one day, for us."
"Prepare next for the great sell: a wave of propaganda rolling soon in our direction, praising Trump, the inspired bringer of peace, brushing aside petty concerns about geography, missiles and tank divisions. Brace for the reassuring, conciliatory speech from a smiling Putin, so eagerly quoted by diminished Western leaders. We will be fed heartwarming stories of returning villagers and of churches being restored; a new age of peace and amity with Russia will be proclaimed. Believe not a word.
"Maybe, in the end, this was all inevitable. Small states can defeat great ones – Vietnam, Afghanistan – but they are the exception, and they are rarely neighbours of their greater enemies. Mostly, might prevails. This is what Donald Trump thinks, and this is what Vladimir Putin thinks. And with the vast power of Xi Jinping’s China watching it all, they are in the driving seat. If this capitulation is imposed, that is the big lesson to remember: there are no reliable international rules or norms any more. If you are part of the world of smaller nations, tool up, onshore what industries you can, start filling the sandbags. Because history is back, and our enemies are coming, one day, for us."
Something else to chew on (By David Runciman, Hon Prof of Politics, Cambridge Uni)
"For decades the Japanese health ministry has released an annual tally of citizens aged one hundred or over. This year the number of centenarians reached very nearly a hundred thousand. When the survey started in 1963, there were just 153. In 1981 there were a thousand; in 1998 ten thousand. Japan now produces more nappies for incontinent adults than for infants. There is a burgeoning industry for the cleaning and fumigating of apartments in which elderly Japanese citizens have died and been left undiscovered for weeks, months or years."
Thinking about it, helps to explain Putin. Russia, like Japan, is stuffed demographically. Last chance to do something, especially in face of possible German rearmament. Those Baltic States are going to just hand themselves over by themselves. And you can't easily unwind a war economy.
If we want to talk long term demographics, it's not looking good for China thanks to the one-child policy. The median age in both China and Russia is 40.3 years, in the UK it's 40.1, in the US it's 38.5, in Brazil 34.8, in India 28.8 and in Nigeria 18.1 years. The future global superpowers are likely India and Nigeria - the dawning of the equatorial age perhaps though will climate age promote more northward and southward migration - remember, 85% of humanity lives north of the equator and only 15% south.
India maybe not Nigeria though its gdp will grow its gdp per capita won’t as much, it also doesn’t have the size of military India has not yet nukes
I also have my doubts about the accuracy of Nigerian population data. There may be nowhere near as many of them as claimed
Comments
Wales take on the world champions without 13 of their best players because the game falls outside of World Rugby's designated international window. Tandy's starting XV can only boast 267 caps between them so experienc
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c74xe49q7vlo
"Sorry man but it just ain't happening" '
I believe Left Unity later split.
It will be a very uncomfortable morning for her and her supporters
Canary
@TheCanaryUK
Yet ANOTHER person blocked from entering the Your Party conference - despite being invited to attend... What is going on
@counterfireorg
#YourParty #YourPartyConference
https://x.com/TheCanaryUK/status/1994740546196414745
Not just inadvertent mis-sayings or minor economicals with the truths but full blown and massive lie about the state of the country's finances.
Resignation issues imho.
@JohnRentoul
I have changed my mind and now think a Labour leadership challenge next year is likely https://independent.co.uk/voices/rachel-reeves-budget-choices-taxes-misleading-b2874861.html
https://x.com/JohnRentoul/status/1994815616537301182
https://www.newstatesman.com/international-politics/2025/11/twilight-in-kyiv
It concludes:
"Prepare next for the great sell: a wave of propaganda rolling soon in our direction, praising Trump, the inspired bringer of peace, brushing aside petty concerns about geography, missiles and tank divisions. Brace for the reassuring, conciliatory speech from a smiling Putin, so eagerly quoted by diminished Western leaders. We will be fed heartwarming stories of returning villagers and of churches being restored; a new age of peace and amity with Russia will be proclaimed. Believe not a word.
"Maybe, in the end, this was all inevitable. Small states can defeat great ones – Vietnam, Afghanistan – but they are the exception, and they are rarely neighbours of their greater enemies. Mostly, might prevails. This is what Donald Trump thinks, and this is what Vladimir Putin thinks. And with the vast power of Xi Jinping’s China watching it all, they are in the driving seat. If this capitulation is imposed, that is the big lesson to remember: there are no reliable international rules or norms any more. If you are part of the world of smaller nations, tool up, onshore what industries you can, start filling the sandbags. Because history is back, and our enemies are coming, one day, for us."
I've mentioned before there's a fairly clear route to the NIP winning 15 seats on the Council and a less clear route to 23 but if the Greens can win a dozen or more seats there's a chance the Labour majority could be under threat seriously for the first time since 1968. Back then, Laobur only won 30 of 60 seats and kept control only by the election of five Aldermen. In 1971, they gained 23 and have not been seriously threatened.
The Residents won my Ward, Wall End, in 1968 but lost it to Labour on a 17% swing three years later.
The other conundrum is the Mayoral contest - Labour have chosen the uninspiring Forhad Hussain to be the successor to Roksana Fiaz and he would likely win if BOTH NIP and Green candidates stand against him but a single anti-Labour candidate on "the left" has a chance.
"Your Party co-founder Zarah Sultana refuses to enter group's conference hall
Your Party's "historic" founding conference has descended into chaos on day one as one of its co-founders stages a boycott over claims of a "purge"."
https://news.sky.com/story/zarah-sultana-boycotts-first-day-of-your-party-conference-over-witch-hunt-expulsions-13476925
This is what happens when you cut the number of professional teams and spend all your money on prestige projects.
It is colloquially called A Fucking Disaster.
"For decades the Japanese health ministry has released an annual tally of citizens aged one hundred or over. This year the number of centenarians reached very nearly a hundred thousand. When the survey started in 1963, there were just 153. In 1981 there were a thousand; in 1998 ten thousand. Japan now produces more nappies for incontinent adults than for infants. There is a burgeoning industry for the cleaning and fumigating of apartments in which elderly Japanese citizens have died and been left undiscovered for weeks, months or years."
Thinking about it, helps to explain Putin. Russia, like Japan, is stuffed demographically. Last chance to do something, especially in face of possible German rearmament. Those Baltic States are going to just hand themselves over by themselves. And you can't easily unwind a war economy.
Are there that many MPs willing to put their heads above the parapet and is there an obvious individual?
In truth, such contests rarely achieve the change at the time desired by those doing the challenging - Thatcher only went because she didn't win well enough under the arcane Conservative rules of the time but, apart from IDS, I struggle to think of a leader who has lost a challenge or confidence vote - actually, I think Corbyn did, or did he?
The problem is when the leader appears not to have enjoyed the enthusiuastic endorsement of his/her colleagues. Thatcher got 314 votes in the challenge from Sir Anthony Meyer but thst still meant 60 MPs didn't vote for her. May got 200 MPs to back her but 117 didn't and Johnson only won 211-148. Arguably, both were damaged perhaps irrevocably by the votes and the perceptions of division and discontent within the ranks.
That's the risk for Starmer - not defeat per se but a modest victory. I'd argue if he won 255-150 he would be compromised whereas if the margin were, for example, 355-50, he could probably find his position strengthened.
‘So what about Your Party?’
‘You mean my party?’
‘No, YOUR PARTY.’
Etc.
"In her budget speech Reeves boasted that she was introducing a “new golden era for hospitality” as she outlined “permanently lower tax rates for over 750,000 retail, hospitality and leisure properties”.
She announced a new tiered system for business rates, with the tax charge varying depending on the size and value of a company’s premises. Reeves told MPs that the new regime would deliver “the lowest tax rates since 1991” for high street pubs, shops and restaurants.
However, on the same day as the chancellor’s statement, a separate government agency slipped out a new, much higher assessment of the value of the buildings used to calculate business rates, meaning the levy will actually increase significantly next year for the average high street business.
The chancellor also failed to mention to MPs that the 40 per cent discount on business rates, which many shops, pubs, restaurants have been benefiting from since the pandemic, ends in April.
Together, these two changes more than wipe out any benefit from the reforms Reeves announced in the budget."
Yes Ukraine has been battered and had a pretty horrendous 3 years, but I know enough Ukrainians to know the post-war picture the writer paints underestimates their part in building a future.
They need EU membership, and the EU needs Ukraine. Putin may shrug it off casually, but it’s the path to a happier future for the country.
Listen to todays Any Questions. Particularly Lucy Rigby who I thought was particularly impressive. If Racel goes it will because Starmer has already gone
It's a useful source of income to which councils have been denied but it's swings and roundabouts of course.
When I was in local Government, we appealed all the VOA assessments on our properties and employed a rating consultant to take up the appeals on our behalf and their fee was based on a share of the total reductions achieved and let's just say both the Council and the Consultant did well out of it.
IF you get the assessment reduced, you get a nice refund even if you have to pay the inflated assessment for a few months.
I imagine the larger chains of pubs and restaurants are already working on this - there's an interesting document on how racecourses are assessed for rating purposes.
https://www.gov.uk/guidance/rating-manual-section-6-part-3-valuation-of-all-property-classes/horse-racecourses
Seems like if there's things governments can do to get birth rates up it is much harder, systemic stuff which they don't have the time, will, or support to do (like making housing cheaper etc).
Now essentially even money whereas a few days ago he was clear odds on to exit in 2026.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mqA5NODRnQI
https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-november-28-2025/
Russia continues to make tiny gains of territory, at dreadful cost.
https://www.opennewham.co.uk/news/battle-lines-drawn-fiaz-vs-hussain-the-ltn-war-thats-tearing-newham-labour-apart
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-your-party-conference-is-a-mess/
It's over.
It will be a social media Dreadnought.
And Lab plan to give 16 year oids the vote!
Our future lies in our own hands, together with Europe. Suggesting that we should just wring our hands as Trump sells us out is contemptible.
According to the Wall Street Journal, a European intelligence service has already circulated internal assessments about “commercial and economic plans” the Trump team has been exploring with Russia behind closed doors. That report sent shockwaves through capitals across the continent. It confirmed what many in Europe feared. Trump is moving toward a geopolitical deal with Moscow that would undermine Europe’s security architecture at its core.
European officials, speaking privately, say the reaction inside Europe is no longer measured. It is urgent. The working assumption is simple.
If Trump signals recognition of Russia’s territorial claims, Europe must treat it as a strategic emergency...
https://x.com/Microinteracti1/status/1994787234948526430
Labour may well be facing a once in a century wipe out.
https://x.com/hissgoescobra/status/1994607456979489248
(Was one of my daughter's favourite A level texts too.)
Which would be utterly depressing.
That said, I was very much in the 'China is on borrowed time' camp to start with.
I quite enjoy the 'China's population is about one third of official figures' conspiracy, but that doesn't mean I believe it. I do suspect the population is less than claimed - but surely not THAT much less?
Shocked, I tell you.
So the gods cursed the mortals in the way they always do... by giving them exactly what they said they wanted.
(I don't think it will happen, not this time anyway, for all that Polanski has said he wants a deathmatch against Farage, who I am sure would be up for it. But it's far too plausible, and it will serve the rest of us right if it does.)