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We need to talk about abolishing the budget – politicalbetting.com

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  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 83,840
    DavidL said:

    The decision of the BBC to have the line about the most corrupt administration ever in the White House from the Reith lectures looks ever more ill advised: https://democrats-judiciary.house.gov/sites/evo-subsites/democrats-judiciary.house.gov/files/evo-media-document/2025-11-24.hjc-dem-staff-report-trump-crypto-corruption-small_0.pdf

    From the executive summary:
    "This report shows how the President has leveraged his office
    to make himself a crypto billionaire and how he has extended broad protection to fraudsters,
    scam artists, and other online criminals—who, in turn, repay the President and his family with
    millions of dollars in tribute. Perhaps most troublingly, these crypto ventures allow anyone—
    including foreign governments, organized crime groups, corporate interests, and criminals
    seeking pardons and persons seeking government contracts, appointments, or other presidential
    favors—to secretly place huge sums of money directly into the President’s pockets."

    At this point, it's a truism.
    Arguably it's political bias to suppress a quote like that.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,737
    MaxPB said:

    Nigelb said:

    Taz said:

    Visit England’s best pub of 2024 sees its business rates go up from £18K to £73.5K

    Well done Rachel.

    Growth agenda

    https://x.com/laraincornwall/status/1993749174404444230?s=61

    Actually, it sees its rates payable go up from somewhere around £9000 in 2023, to c. £31,600 next year.

    Last year it would have been around £22,000.
    Plus 5-7% on the wage bill to cover the new minimum wage rise. More young people out of work I think. This government is a disaster.
    People after 14 years just forgot what a Labour government is like.

    This is what it is like.
  • Roger said:

    rkrkrk said:

    MikeL said:

    YouGov poll just out:

    Q: Did Labour keep their promise not to increase IT/NI/VAT?

    Yes 16
    No 57

    Wow. Might as well have gone for the 1p on income tax then.
    Hence why it was a stupidly short sighted budget from the perspective of electoral politics.

    Reeves and Starmer are desperately unpopular and generally considered deeply untrustworthy. They were going to get slated however this budget went. So they should have taken this opportunity to actually do some big ticket stuff. Get the income tax rate up. Reform the triple lock. Do something to NI. Abolish stamp duty. Etc, etc.

    But I strongly suspect the true reason they can’t do any of that is because they are now utterly petrified of their backbenchers, and going nuclear in the budget was going to make a leadership challenge much more likely in May. Hence, a fudge that pleases no-one.

    Anecdotes are just that, but from my personal experience this budget has cut through, particularly, it seems to me on the salary sacrifice stuff. I’ve had a lot of people speaking to me about it in the past 24 hours who I don’t consider particularly political, and a number of whom I think are on what could be casually termed the professional “soft left” - and they genuinely are, unprompted, saying how annoyed/concerned they are about it.
    I think he's doing fine. People don't know whether they're going to do well out of the budget yet. The stock market or at least my shares mainly iin UK stocks haven't been higher and removing the two child cap is going to seriously help people who need it which makes me feel better about our government.

    I think they're genuinely trying to make a differnce and it's going to take time. Meanwhile the looming sight of Farage scares the hellout of me. So add me to your focus group and I give them a thumbs up.
    And here was me thinking they were going to be safe now and the danger had passed.....gone in the New Year it is then.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 83,840

    MattW said:

    The budget wasn’t actually that bad.

    As noted upthread, Jeremy Hunt left one hell of a shitty bundle for Reeves to inherit. By and large she’s now cleaned it up. Much of the criticism is off-base. There really was no alternative to raising both spend and taxation, and freezing the bands is actually one of the least worst choices given that the lower paid tend to be somewhat undertaxed (at least by OECD relative standards).


    To be clear, this is a pass mark only.
    Of Labour’s growth agenda there is next to no sign.
    People paying student loans have a right to be extremely aggrieved and the lack of revisiting the triple lock is tragic cowardice.

    I'd agree on the tone, but I would point the finger at failure to do serious reform in what is a once a decade or once a generation opportunity.
    This is my criticism time and time again of this government. They haven't done any hard thinking, so they don't have any well thought through plans and the few they have had they chuck them overboard.

    For example, if you are going to have a mansion tax, lets get rid of stamp duty, reform council tax and have a wider property taxation. Same with how you tax all income. Same with pay per mile. Instead we get this drip drip drip on more taxation but always with more complexity and no doubt loopholes / wide open to abuse.
    That's not entirely true.
    They did a lot of detailed thinking on planning reform ... and then bottled it.

    They threaten to go the same way on nuclear regulation.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 89,125
    edited November 27
    Nigelb said:

    MattW said:

    The budget wasn’t actually that bad.

    As noted upthread, Jeremy Hunt left one hell of a shitty bundle for Reeves to inherit. By and large she’s now cleaned it up. Much of the criticism is off-base. There really was no alternative to raising both spend and taxation, and freezing the bands is actually one of the least worst choices given that the lower paid tend to be somewhat undertaxed (at least by OECD relative standards).


    To be clear, this is a pass mark only.
    Of Labour’s growth agenda there is next to no sign.
    People paying student loans have a right to be extremely aggrieved and the lack of revisiting the triple lock is tragic cowardice.

    I'd agree on the tone, but I would point the finger at failure to do serious reform in what is a once a decade or once a generation opportunity.
    This is my criticism time and time again of this government. They haven't done any hard thinking, so they don't have any well thought through plans and the few they have had they chuck them overboard.

    For example, if you are going to have a mansion tax, lets get rid of stamp duty, reform council tax and have a wider property taxation. Same with how you tax all income. Same with pay per mile. Instead we get this drip drip drip on more taxation but always with more complexity and no doubt loopholes / wide open to abuse.
    That's not entirely true.
    They did a lot of detailed thinking on planning reform ... and then bottled it.

    They threaten to go the same way on nuclear regulation.
    that is why I said "few they have had they chuck them overboard."
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 83,840
    I think I said at the time of the defence review that much of it was already irrelevant or obsolete.

    Since then, Ajax is a confirmed disaster.
    And now there's no money.

    https://news.sky.com/story/military-chiefs-in-difficult-meeting-as-tensions-mount-over-money-13475876
    Britain's top military chiefs held a "very difficult" meeting this week over how to fund plans to rebuild the armed forces amid fears of further cuts, defence sources have said.

    The Ministry of Defence (MoD) played down a report in the Spectator magazine that the top brass, led by Air Chief Marshal Sir Rich Knighton, the chief of the defence staff, planned to write an extraordinary joint letter to John Healey, the defence secretary, to explain that his defence review published in June cannot be delivered without more cash.

    "There is not a letter," an MoD source said, adding that such a communication was not expected to be received either.

    However, other sources from within the army, navy and air force confirmed to Sky News there is growing concern among the chiefs about a gap between the promises being made by Sir Keir Starmer's government to fix the UK's hollowed-out armed forces and the reality of the size of the defence budget, which is currently not seen as growing fast enough.

    That means either billions of additional pounds must be found more quickly, or ambitions to modernise the armed forces might need to be curbed despite warnings of mounting threats from Russia and China and pressure from Donald Trump on the UK and the rest of Europe to spend more on their own defences...

  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 45,959

    MaxPB said:

    Nigelb said:

    Taz said:

    Visit England’s best pub of 2024 sees its business rates go up from £18K to £73.5K

    Well done Rachel.

    Growth agenda

    https://x.com/laraincornwall/status/1993749174404444230?s=61

    Actually, it sees its rates payable go up from somewhere around £9000 in 2023, to c. £31,600 next year.

    Last year it would have been around £22,000.
    Plus 5-7% on the wage bill to cover the new minimum wage rise. More young people out of work I think. This government is a disaster.
    People after 14 years just forgot what a Labour government is like.

    This is what it is like.
    How long will it take folk to forget what a Tory government is like?

  • MattWMattW Posts: 31,003
    Lee Anderson has started dressing up like the posher of my two grandads (I never me the other one).

    https://x.com/LeeAndersonMP_/status/1993980217203793963

    It's like the 1980s show "The Gaffer", or one of the characters from Last of the Summer Wine.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 33,288
    ...

    MaxPB said:

    Nigelb said:

    Taz said:

    Visit England’s best pub of 2024 sees its business rates go up from £18K to £73.5K

    Well done Rachel.

    Growth agenda

    https://x.com/laraincornwall/status/1993749174404444230?s=61

    Actually, it sees its rates payable go up from somewhere around £9000 in 2023, to c. £31,600 next year.

    Last year it would have been around £22,000.
    Plus 5-7% on the wage bill to cover the new minimum wage rise. More young people out of work I think. This government is a disaster.
    People after 14 years just forgot what a Labour government is like.

    This is what it is like.
    How long will it take folk to forget what a Tory government is like?

    Given that we haven't had one since 1997, I'd say most have.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,737
    Public sector spending, gilt rates and inflation were under much better control under Rishi/Hunt, and the aggregate growth rate in the economy better too.

    Sure, he played down some costs and delayed a CSR - it was an election year - but I've no doubt that would have been addressed had the Conservatives been re-elected, and much less painlessly than under Reeves, and with lower inflation, taxes and higher growth than we've subsequently "enjoyed" on top.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 5,655
    Cyclefree said:

    @DavidL
    "I must say that I find it astonishing that you might have a jury trial for something as trivial as that. If that is the state of play in England there may be more in the arguments for reform than I had realised (* ducks in anticipation of a low flying thunderbolt from @Cyclefree*)."

    I would gently point out that, given that the Supreme Court has recently ruled that Scottish judges misunderstood and misapplied the law (wot they are meant to be expert in) in relation to rape trials and therefore may have been responsible for miscarriages of justice, the argument that judges are better at determining guilt and innocence has already had an Exocet lobbed at it and is now lying, a smoking ruin, on the floor of whatever courts our cheese-paring government has left open.

    And right now we have :

    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cj4q9gwdqlvo

    "MSPs have passed an emergency bill to fix a legislative error that meant owners of thousands of properties paid business taxes when they did not need to.

    The bill is designed to fix an earlier law that accidentally removed the legal right of councils to levy non-domestic rates on empty business properties.

    Up to 34,000 properties are thought to have have been affected, and ministers have legislate retrospectively to avoid having to issuing refunds of up to £400m. "

    Slow handclaps all round.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 76,176
    edited November 27
    I've been trying to think what demands Ukraine should make of Russia.

    Some thoughts:

    1) Russia to withdraw all soldiers from Ukrainian territory and the Don Basin, as far as the Volga River.

    2) Russia to withdraw all naval units from the Black Sea.

    3) Russia to fully disarm of all nuclear weapons.

    4) Russia to hand over Putin, Bortnikov, Lavrov, Medvedev etc to be whipped naked through the streets of Bucha before being forced to walk to Kyiv while people point and laugh at their tiny cocks.

    5) As there is no legitimate government in Russia, free and fair elections to be held.

    6) In return, the US will invest an unspecified sum in their oil industry in exchange for 50% of revenues for the next 100 years.

    7) And China will faithfully promise not to invade Siberia.

    These seem to me reasonable, moderate and sensible proposals that would bring a lasting peace to Ukraine and Russia.

    Why has Putin not proposed them given he's so keen on stopping the fighting?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,737

    Nigelb said:

    Putin appears to be giving a speech rejecting any deal with Zelensky and that no peace is possible unless Ukraine withdraws its troops from Russian territory.

    Wut ?

    Putin’s argument is that Russia annexed the 4 provinces (sorry forget what the Ukrainians call them) and therefore Ukrainian troops are occupying parts of Russia
    On this basis, we still have Rhodesia, right?
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 9,379

    Public sector spending, gilt rates and inflation were under much better control under Rishi/Hunt, and the aggregate growth rate in the economy better too.

    Sure, he played down some costs and delayed a CSR - it was an election year - but I've no doubt that would have been addressed had the Conservatives been re-elected, and much less painlessly than under Reeves, and with lower inflation, taxes and higher growth than we've subsequently "enjoyed" on top.

    "much less painlessly " -do you mean to say that?

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,723

    MaxPB said:

    Nigelb said:

    Taz said:

    Visit England’s best pub of 2024 sees its business rates go up from £18K to £73.5K

    Well done Rachel.

    Growth agenda

    https://x.com/laraincornwall/status/1993749174404444230?s=61

    Actually, it sees its rates payable go up from somewhere around £9000 in 2023, to c. £31,600 next year.

    Last year it would have been around £22,000.
    Plus 5-7% on the wage bill to cover the new minimum wage rise. More young people out of work I think. This government is a disaster.
    People after 14 years just forgot what a Labour government is like.

    This is what it is like.
    How long will it take folk to forget what a Tory government is like?

    10 years if they are lucky, but it may be too late for them by then.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,737
    geoffw said:

    Public sector spending, gilt rates and inflation were under much better control under Rishi/Hunt, and the aggregate growth rate in the economy better too.

    Sure, he played down some costs and delayed a CSR - it was an election year - but I've no doubt that would have been addressed had the Conservatives been re-elected, and much less painlessly than under Reeves, and with lower inflation, taxes and higher growth than we've subsequently "enjoyed" on top.

    "much less painlessly " -do you mean to say that?

    Painfully. Long day.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,737

    MaxPB said:

    Nigelb said:

    Taz said:

    Visit England’s best pub of 2024 sees its business rates go up from £18K to £73.5K

    Well done Rachel.

    Growth agenda

    https://x.com/laraincornwall/status/1993749174404444230?s=61

    Actually, it sees its rates payable go up from somewhere around £9000 in 2023, to c. £31,600 next year.

    Last year it would have been around £22,000.
    Plus 5-7% on the wage bill to cover the new minimum wage rise. More young people out of work I think. This government is a disaster.
    People after 14 years just forgot what a Labour government is like.

    This is what it is like.
    How long will it take folk to forget what a Tory government is like?

    Good question.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 83,840
    edited November 27
    Cyclefree said:
    Six years on.

    ..In 2019, removed from the ministry and the civil service, Nègre was placed under formal investigation on several charges ranging from drugging to sexual assault. His lawyer, Vanessa Stein, said he would not comment while the investigation continues. Awaiting trial, Nègre has been able to continue working in the private sector...

    (I gave Cyclefree the like, not the story, btw)
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 11,888

    Last Christmas I bought my pal an elephant for his room.

    He thanked me profusely, but I just said “don’t mention it”.

    What do you make of Popbitch giving credence to the conspiracy theory that Scouse drill artist Esdeekid is actually Timothy Chalamet? My son is a big fan of scouse drill and has been on at me about this theory for months, it would blow his mind if it were true.
    My knowledge of drill music is only matched by my knowledge about being subtle.

    That said I am a big fan of Timothée Chalamet.
    Is that because he generously stepped back to allow you a clear run at Kylie Jenner?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 58,821
    Cyclefree said:
    WTAF

    The only thing i can say is this -

    Human nature hasn't changed. So things like this have always happened.

    At least we have moved to a stage where they are caught and prosecuted. Eventually.

    Maybe we will move to a stage where they are caught earlier.

    Stopping it happening is probably mad science fiction, of course.

  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 45,959
    edited November 27

    ...

    MaxPB said:

    Nigelb said:

    Taz said:

    Visit England’s best pub of 2024 sees its business rates go up from £18K to £73.5K

    Well done Rachel.

    Growth agenda

    https://x.com/laraincornwall/status/1993749174404444230?s=61

    Actually, it sees its rates payable go up from somewhere around £9000 in 2023, to c. £31,600 next year.

    Last year it would have been around £22,000.
    Plus 5-7% on the wage bill to cover the new minimum wage rise. More young people out of work I think. This government is a disaster.
    People after 14 years just forgot what a Labour government is like.

    This is what it is like.
    How long will it take folk to forget what a Tory government is like?

    Given that we haven't had one since 1997, I'd say most have.
    Not even the coruscating shaft of blue light that was Truss?!
  • RogerRoger Posts: 21,568

    MaxPB said:

    Nigelb said:

    Taz said:

    Visit England’s best pub of 2024 sees its business rates go up from £18K to £73.5K

    Well done Rachel.

    Growth agenda

    https://x.com/laraincornwall/status/1993749174404444230?s=61

    Actually, it sees its rates payable go up from somewhere around £9000 in 2023, to c. £31,600 next year.

    Last year it would have been around £22,000.
    Plus 5-7% on the wage bill to cover the new minimum wage rise. More young people out of work I think. This government is a disaster.
    People after 14 years just forgot what a Labour government is like.

    This is what it is like.
    How long will it take folk to forget what a Tory government is like?

    Maybe 15 years,

    It was Boris and Brexit wot dun it.....

    The average age of a Tiory voter must be well into their 70's and I can't see what they can offer Europe loving new voters
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 11,888
  • MattWMattW Posts: 31,003
    edited November 27
    Nigelb said:

    I think I said at the time of the defence review that much of it was already irrelevant or obsolete.

    Since then, Ajax is a confirmed disaster.
    And now there's no money.

    https://news.sky.com/story/military-chiefs-in-difficult-meeting-as-tensions-mount-over-money-13475876
    Britain's top military chiefs held a "very difficult" meeting this week over how to fund plans to rebuild the armed forces amid fears of further cuts, defence sources have said.

    The Ministry of Defence (MoD) played down a report in the Spectator magazine that the top brass, led by Air Chief Marshal Sir Rich Knighton, the chief of the defence staff, planned to write an extraordinary joint letter to John Healey, the defence secretary, to explain that his defence review published in June cannot be delivered without more cash.

    "There is not a letter," an MoD source said, adding that such a communication was not expected to be received either.

    However, other sources from within the army, navy and air force confirmed to Sky News there is growing concern among the chiefs about a gap between the promises being made by Sir Keir Starmer's government to fix the UK's hollowed-out armed forces and the reality of the size of the defence budget, which is currently not seen as growing fast enough.

    That means either billions of additional pounds must be found more quickly, or ambitions to modernise the armed forces might need to be curbed despite warnings of mounting threats from Russia and China and pressure from Donald Trump on the UK and the rest of Europe to spend more on their own defences...

    TLDR: The army fooked up their programme and want a(nother) bailout. *

    Even now, would it be better to can it and just pivot to CV90?

    CV90 is used by afaics every country in JEF except us, and is made by a subsidiary of BAE. We have successfully demonopolised ships for the navy; perhaps we have to take tis one on the chin.

    * That is probably a little simplistic.
  • Roger said:

    MaxPB said:

    Nigelb said:

    Taz said:

    Visit England’s best pub of 2024 sees its business rates go up from £18K to £73.5K

    Well done Rachel.

    Growth agenda

    https://x.com/laraincornwall/status/1993749174404444230?s=61

    Actually, it sees its rates payable go up from somewhere around £9000 in 2023, to c. £31,600 next year.

    Last year it would have been around £22,000.
    Plus 5-7% on the wage bill to cover the new minimum wage rise. More young people out of work I think. This government is a disaster.
    People after 14 years just forgot what a Labour government is like.

    This is what it is like.
    How long will it take folk to forget what a Tory government is like?

    Maybe 15 years,

    It was Boris and Brexit wot dun it.....

    The average age of a Tiory voter must be well into their 70's and I can't see what they can offer Europe loving new voters
    They don't have to. It looks like the next Government will be Reform. Which, for all its many obvious downsides, does rather make a mockery of your thesis.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 11,888

    Nigelb said:

    Putin appears to be giving a speech rejecting any deal with Zelensky and that no peace is possible unless Ukraine withdraws its troops from Russian territory.

    Wut ?

    Putin’s argument is that Russia annexed the 4 provinces (sorry forget what the Ukrainians call them) and therefore Ukrainian troops are occupying parts of Russia
    On this basis, we still have Rhodesia, right?
    I was going for the 13 Colonies personally
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 83,840
    MattW said:

    Nigelb said:

    I think I said at the time of the defence review that much of it was already irrelevant or obsolete.

    Since then, Ajax is a confirmed disaster.
    And now there's no money.

    https://news.sky.com/story/military-chiefs-in-difficult-meeting-as-tensions-mount-over-money-13475876
    Britain's top military chiefs held a "very difficult" meeting this week over how to fund plans to rebuild the armed forces amid fears of further cuts, defence sources have said.

    The Ministry of Defence (MoD) played down a report in the Spectator magazine that the top brass, led by Air Chief Marshal Sir Rich Knighton, the chief of the defence staff, planned to write an extraordinary joint letter to John Healey, the defence secretary, to explain that his defence review published in June cannot be delivered without more cash.

    "There is not a letter," an MoD source said, adding that such a communication was not expected to be received either.

    However, other sources from within the army, navy and air force confirmed to Sky News there is growing concern among the chiefs about a gap between the promises being made by Sir Keir Starmer's government to fix the UK's hollowed-out armed forces and the reality of the size of the defence budget, which is currently not seen as growing fast enough.

    That means either billions of additional pounds must be found more quickly, or ambitions to modernise the armed forces might need to be curbed despite warnings of mounting threats from Russia and China and pressure from Donald Trump on the UK and the rest of Europe to spend more on their own defences...

    TLDR: The army fooked up their programme and want a(nother) bailout. *

    Even now, would it be better to can it and just pivot to CV90?

    CV90 is used by afaics every country in JEF except us, and is made by a subsidiary of BAE. We have successfully demonopolised ships for the navy; perhaps we have to take tis one on the chin.

    * That is probably a little simplistic.
    Ref. #Ajax | returning to @Jack_Watling’s 2021 analysis https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/british-armys-greek-tragedy [see extended excerpt below] problems were evident 15 years ago!

    ▫️With standards within margins, was potential for litigation by manufacturer a factor in prolonging the project❔

    See also https://iiss.org/online-analysis/military-balance/2022/03/is-ajax-the-british-armys-achilles-heel/ [2022]

    ➕the inevitable ‘lessons learned’ govt. statement [2023] https://gov.uk/government/speeches/ministerial-statement-on-ajax-lessons-learned-review

    More backstory / the legal probe in 2021 https://defensenews.com/global/europe/2021/12/16/ajax-acquisition-debacle-prompts-legal-probe-at-uk-defence-ministry/

    https://x.com/CharterhouseSq/status/1993592783056118074
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 9,379
    Glad to report this geezer is still writing interesting stuff (just not here)
    Sean Thomas, London’s demographic change is unprecedented in peacetime
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 26,907
    geoffw said:

    Glad to report this geezer is still writing interesting stuff (just not here)
    Sean Thomas, London’s demographic change is unprecedented in peacetime

    I think he pivots to AI when he starts listing precedents, then pivots back when he stops. It's well knitted together, but it does stand out. Unless he actually did the research, of course.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 58,821

    Nigelb said:

    Putin appears to be giving a speech rejecting any deal with Zelensky and that no peace is possible unless Ukraine withdraws its troops from Russian territory.

    Wut ?

    Putin’s argument is that Russia annexed the 4 provinces (sorry forget what the Ukrainians call them) and therefore Ukrainian troops are occupying parts of Russia
    On this basis, we still have Rhodesia, right?
    I was going for the 13 Colonies personally
    Nah - whole lot - sea to sea. Plus South America. And Frogistan.

    Any country we ever fought a war with.....
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 58,821
    Nigelb said:

    MattW said:

    Nigelb said:

    I think I said at the time of the defence review that much of it was already irrelevant or obsolete.

    Since then, Ajax is a confirmed disaster.
    And now there's no money.

    https://news.sky.com/story/military-chiefs-in-difficult-meeting-as-tensions-mount-over-money-13475876
    Britain's top military chiefs held a "very difficult" meeting this week over how to fund plans to rebuild the armed forces amid fears of further cuts, defence sources have said.

    The Ministry of Defence (MoD) played down a report in the Spectator magazine that the top brass, led by Air Chief Marshal Sir Rich Knighton, the chief of the defence staff, planned to write an extraordinary joint letter to John Healey, the defence secretary, to explain that his defence review published in June cannot be delivered without more cash.

    "There is not a letter," an MoD source said, adding that such a communication was not expected to be received either.

    However, other sources from within the army, navy and air force confirmed to Sky News there is growing concern among the chiefs about a gap between the promises being made by Sir Keir Starmer's government to fix the UK's hollowed-out armed forces and the reality of the size of the defence budget, which is currently not seen as growing fast enough.

    That means either billions of additional pounds must be found more quickly, or ambitions to modernise the armed forces might need to be curbed despite warnings of mounting threats from Russia and China and pressure from Donald Trump on the UK and the rest of Europe to spend more on their own defences...

    TLDR: The army fooked up their programme and want a(nother) bailout. *

    Even now, would it be better to can it and just pivot to CV90?

    CV90 is used by afaics every country in JEF except us, and is made by a subsidiary of BAE. We have successfully demonopolised ships for the navy; perhaps we have to take tis one on the chin.

    * That is probably a little simplistic.
    Ref. #Ajax | returning to @Jack_Watling’s 2021 analysis https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/british-armys-greek-tragedy [see extended excerpt below] problems were evident 15 years ago!

    ▫️With standards within margins, was potential for litigation by manufacturer a factor in prolonging the project❔

    See also https://iiss.org/online-analysis/military-balance/2022/03/is-ajax-the-british-armys-achilles-heel/ [2022]

    ➕the inevitable ‘lessons learned’ govt. statement [2023] https://gov.uk/government/speeches/ministerial-statement-on-ajax-lessons-learned-review

    More backstory / the legal probe in 2021 https://defensenews.com/global/europe/2021/12/16/ajax-acquisition-debacle-prompts-legal-probe-at-uk-defence-ministry/

    https://x.com/CharterhouseSq/status/1993592783056118074
    I like the story that Hobart* personally binned tank designs. Took them out for a spin as commander. Then wrote an appreciation for the manufacturers.

    *According to legend, went up to London as a Home Guard corporal, had breakfast in the NCOs mess of a barracks, went for his appointment with Churchill and came back to the same London barracks as a general.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 9,379
    viewcode said:

    geoffw said:

    Glad to report this geezer is still writing interesting stuff (just not here)
    Sean Thomas, London’s demographic change is unprecedented in peacetime

    I think he pivots to AI when he starts listing precedents, then pivots back when he stops. It's well knitted together, but it does stand out. Unless he actually did the research, of course.
    Thank you for sharing your thoughts.

  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 46,751

    Nigelb said:

    MattW said:

    Nigelb said:

    I think I said at the time of the defence review that much of it was already irrelevant or obsolete.

    Since then, Ajax is a confirmed disaster.
    And now there's no money.

    https://news.sky.com/story/military-chiefs-in-difficult-meeting-as-tensions-mount-over-money-13475876
    Britain's top military chiefs held a "very difficult" meeting this week over how to fund plans to rebuild the armed forces amid fears of further cuts, defence sources have said.

    The Ministry of Defence (MoD) played down a report in the Spectator magazine that the top brass, led by Air Chief Marshal Sir Rich Knighton, the chief of the defence staff, planned to write an extraordinary joint letter to John Healey, the defence secretary, to explain that his defence review published in June cannot be delivered without more cash.

    "There is not a letter," an MoD source said, adding that such a communication was not expected to be received either.

    However, other sources from within the army, navy and air force confirmed to Sky News there is growing concern among the chiefs about a gap between the promises being made by Sir Keir Starmer's government to fix the UK's hollowed-out armed forces and the reality of the size of the defence budget, which is currently not seen as growing fast enough.

    That means either billions of additional pounds must be found more quickly, or ambitions to modernise the armed forces might need to be curbed despite warnings of mounting threats from Russia and China and pressure from Donald Trump on the UK and the rest of Europe to spend more on their own defences...

    TLDR: The army fooked up their programme and want a(nother) bailout. *

    Even now, would it be better to can it and just pivot to CV90?

    CV90 is used by afaics every country in JEF except us, and is made by a subsidiary of BAE. We have successfully demonopolised ships for the navy; perhaps we have to take tis one on the chin.

    * That is probably a little simplistic.
    Ref. #Ajax | returning to @Jack_Watling’s 2021 analysis https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/british-armys-greek-tragedy [see extended excerpt below] problems were evident 15 years ago!

    ▫️With standards within margins, was potential for litigation by manufacturer a factor in prolonging the project❔

    See also https://iiss.org/online-analysis/military-balance/2022/03/is-ajax-the-british-armys-achilles-heel/ [2022]

    ➕the inevitable ‘lessons learned’ govt. statement [2023] https://gov.uk/government/speeches/ministerial-statement-on-ajax-lessons-learned-review

    More backstory / the legal probe in 2021 https://defensenews.com/global/europe/2021/12/16/ajax-acquisition-debacle-prompts-legal-probe-at-uk-defence-ministry/

    https://x.com/CharterhouseSq/status/1993592783056118074
    I like the story that Hobart* personally binned tank designs. Took them out for a spin as commander. Then wrote an appreciation for the manufacturers.

    *According to legend, went up to London as a Home Guard corporal, had breakfast in the NCOs mess of a barracks, went for his appointment with Churchill and came back to the same London barracks as a general.
    Presumably you have seen this? Worst Tank Ever. Of course, Ajax isn't a tank ...

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CUABpR19SV4
  • MattWMattW Posts: 31,003
    geoffw said:

    viewcode said:

    geoffw said:

    Glad to report this geezer is still writing interesting stuff (just not here)
    Sean Thomas, London’s demographic change is unprecedented in peacetime

    I think he pivots to AI when he starts listing precedents, then pivots back when he stops. It's well knitted together, but it does stand out. Unless he actually did the research, of course.
    Thank you for sharing your thoughts.

    Surely "Please give your attention to this matter", shouted at the Phalanx of Spodes at the Spectator is more the style?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 83,840

    Nigelb said:

    MattW said:

    Nigelb said:

    I think I said at the time of the defence review that much of it was already irrelevant or obsolete.

    Since then, Ajax is a confirmed disaster.
    And now there's no money.

    https://news.sky.com/story/military-chiefs-in-difficult-meeting-as-tensions-mount-over-money-13475876
    Britain's top military chiefs held a "very difficult" meeting this week over how to fund plans to rebuild the armed forces amid fears of further cuts, defence sources have said.

    The Ministry of Defence (MoD) played down a report in the Spectator magazine that the top brass, led by Air Chief Marshal Sir Rich Knighton, the chief of the defence staff, planned to write an extraordinary joint letter to John Healey, the defence secretary, to explain that his defence review published in June cannot be delivered without more cash.

    "There is not a letter," an MoD source said, adding that such a communication was not expected to be received either.

    However, other sources from within the army, navy and air force confirmed to Sky News there is growing concern among the chiefs about a gap between the promises being made by Sir Keir Starmer's government to fix the UK's hollowed-out armed forces and the reality of the size of the defence budget, which is currently not seen as growing fast enough.

    That means either billions of additional pounds must be found more quickly, or ambitions to modernise the armed forces might need to be curbed despite warnings of mounting threats from Russia and China and pressure from Donald Trump on the UK and the rest of Europe to spend more on their own defences...

    TLDR: The army fooked up their programme and want a(nother) bailout. *

    Even now, would it be better to can it and just pivot to CV90?

    CV90 is used by afaics every country in JEF except us, and is made by a subsidiary of BAE. We have successfully demonopolised ships for the navy; perhaps we have to take tis one on the chin.

    * That is probably a little simplistic.
    Ref. #Ajax | returning to @Jack_Watling’s 2021 analysis https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/british-armys-greek-tragedy [see extended excerpt below] problems were evident 15 years ago!

    ▫️With standards within margins, was potential for litigation by manufacturer a factor in prolonging the project❔

    See also https://iiss.org/online-analysis/military-balance/2022/03/is-ajax-the-british-armys-achilles-heel/ [2022]

    ➕the inevitable ‘lessons learned’ govt. statement [2023] https://gov.uk/government/speeches/ministerial-statement-on-ajax-lessons-learned-review

    More backstory / the legal probe in 2021 https://defensenews.com/global/europe/2021/12/16/ajax-acquisition-debacle-prompts-legal-probe-at-uk-defence-ministry/

    https://x.com/CharterhouseSq/status/1993592783056118074
    I like the story that Hobart* personally binned tank designs. Took them out for a spin as commander. Then wrote an appreciation for the manufacturers.

    *According to legend, went up to London as a Home Guard corporal, had breakfast in the NCOs mess of a barracks, went for his appointment with Churchill and came back to the same London barracks as a general.
    EXCLUSIVE: Senior army officers and civil servants have been accused of withholding information from defence minister Luke Pollard about soldiers falling unwell after training on the new Ajax vehicle
    https://x.com/larisamlbrown/status/1994121015195295907
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,940

    Cyclefree said:
    WTAF

    The only thing i can say is this -

    Human nature hasn't changed. So things like this have always happened.

    At least we have moved to a stage where they are caught and prosecuted. Eventually.

    Maybe we will move to a stage where they are caught earlier.

    Stopping it happening is probably mad science fiction, of course.

    The vileness of the many ways in which men seek to harm women continues to astound and depress me.

    As does the complacency or indifference of too many men (not referring to you, to be clear) to what their sex is capable of and actually does.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 38,632
    "Matt Goodwin
    @GoodwinMJ

    If you want a symbol of modern Britain here is one:

    109,000 more Brits left the country last year than returned while almost exactly that figure, 110,000, claimed asylum in Britain"

    https://x.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1994104750233604574
  • MattWMattW Posts: 31,003
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    MattW said:

    Nigelb said:

    I think I said at the time of the defence review that much of it was already irrelevant or obsolete.

    Since then, Ajax is a confirmed disaster.
    And now there's no money.

    https://news.sky.com/story/military-chiefs-in-difficult-meeting-as-tensions-mount-over-money-13475876
    Britain's top military chiefs held a "very difficult" meeting this week over how to fund plans to rebuild the armed forces amid fears of further cuts, defence sources have said.

    The Ministry of Defence (MoD) played down a report in the Spectator magazine that the top brass, led by Air Chief Marshal Sir Rich Knighton, the chief of the defence staff, planned to write an extraordinary joint letter to John Healey, the defence secretary, to explain that his defence review published in June cannot be delivered without more cash.

    "There is not a letter," an MoD source said, adding that such a communication was not expected to be received either.

    However, other sources from within the army, navy and air force confirmed to Sky News there is growing concern among the chiefs about a gap between the promises being made by Sir Keir Starmer's government to fix the UK's hollowed-out armed forces and the reality of the size of the defence budget, which is currently not seen as growing fast enough.

    That means either billions of additional pounds must be found more quickly, or ambitions to modernise the armed forces might need to be curbed despite warnings of mounting threats from Russia and China and pressure from Donald Trump on the UK and the rest of Europe to spend more on their own defences...

    TLDR: The army fooked up their programme and want a(nother) bailout. *

    Even now, would it be better to can it and just pivot to CV90?

    CV90 is used by afaics every country in JEF except us, and is made by a subsidiary of BAE. We have successfully demonopolised ships for the navy; perhaps we have to take tis one on the chin.

    * That is probably a little simplistic.
    Ref. #Ajax | returning to @Jack_Watling’s 2021 analysis https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/british-armys-greek-tragedy [see extended excerpt below] problems were evident 15 years ago!

    ▫️With standards within margins, was potential for litigation by manufacturer a factor in prolonging the project❔

    See also https://iiss.org/online-analysis/military-balance/2022/03/is-ajax-the-british-armys-achilles-heel/ [2022]

    ➕the inevitable ‘lessons learned’ govt. statement [2023] https://gov.uk/government/speeches/ministerial-statement-on-ajax-lessons-learned-review

    More backstory / the legal probe in 2021 https://defensenews.com/global/europe/2021/12/16/ajax-acquisition-debacle-prompts-legal-probe-at-uk-defence-ministry/

    https://x.com/CharterhouseSq/status/1993592783056118074
    I like the story that Hobart* personally binned tank designs. Took them out for a spin as commander. Then wrote an appreciation for the manufacturers.

    *According to legend, went up to London as a Home Guard corporal, had breakfast in the NCOs mess of a barracks, went for his appointment with Churchill and came back to the same London barracks as a general.
    EXCLUSIVE: Senior army officers and civil servants have been accused of withholding information from defence minister Luke Pollard about soldiers falling unwell after training on the new Ajax vehicle
    https://x.com/larisamlbrown/status/1994121015195295907
    "Before his visit to General Dynamics, Pollard had been handed written assurances that Ajax was safe, four years after trials were initially paused, based on findings from an army safety investigation team that examined concerns raised over the summer but found no “systemic issues”."
    https://www.thetimes.com/article/72426815-97a5-4797-b7a5-e9e7f65402db?shareToken=e0c0ce3b0d1c1adc9306a12de461e5f8
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 17,228
    ydoethur said:

    I've been trying to think what demands Ukraine should make of Russia.

    Some thoughts:

    1) Russia to withdraw all soldiers from Ukrainian territory and the Don Basin, as far as the Volga River.

    2) Russia to withdraw all naval units from the Black Sea.

    3) Russia to fully disarm of all nuclear weapons.

    4) Russia to hand over Putin, Bortnikov, Lavrov, Medvedev etc to be whipped naked through the streets of Bucha before being forced to walk to Kyiv while people point and laugh at their tiny cocks.

    5) As there is no legitimate government in Russia, free and fair elections to be held.

    6) In return, the US will invest an unspecified sum in their oil industry in exchange for 50% of revenues for the next 100 years.

    7) And China will faithfully promise not to invade Siberia.

    These seem to me reasonable, moderate and sensible proposals that would bring a lasting peace to Ukraine and Russia.

    Why has Putin not proposed them given he's so keen on stopping the fighting?

    Just demand Russian troops withdraw from Ukraine, Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Transnistria.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 17,363
    Andy_JS said:

    "Matt Goodwin
    @GoodwinMJ

    If you want a symbol of modern Britain here is one:

    109,000 more Brits left the country last year than returned while almost exactly that figure, 110,000, claimed asylum in Britain"

    https://x.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1994104750233604574

    So he's against people coming here, but also against people leaving?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 83,840
    The Fear Taking Hold Among Indiana Republicans

    https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/2025/11/indiana-redistricting-republican-trump/685057/
    n monday I spoke with a Republican member of Indiana’s legislature who opposes President Donald Trump’s push for the state to redraw its congressional map to gain two GOP seats and help the party hold its House majority in next year’s midterm elections. Trump, with support from Indiana’s Republican governor, Mike Braun, has vowed to back primary challengers against members of the GOP who are, for now, blocking the redistricting plan. The lawmaker I spoke with asked that I not publish his name. He isn’t worried about Trump’s political wrath; he doesn’t plan to run for reelection. His fear of speaking out is much more personal: “I’d rather my house not get firebombed,” he told me by phone...
  • glwglw Posts: 10,629

    MattW said:

    The budget wasn’t actually that bad.

    As noted upthread, Jeremy Hunt left one hell of a shitty bundle for Reeves to inherit. By and large she’s now cleaned it up. Much of the criticism is off-base. There really was no alternative to raising both spend and taxation, and freezing the bands is actually one of the least worst choices given that the lower paid tend to be somewhat undertaxed (at least by OECD relative standards).


    To be clear, this is a pass mark only.
    Of Labour’s growth agenda there is next to no sign.
    People paying student loans have a right to be extremely aggrieved and the lack of revisiting the triple lock is tragic cowardice.

    I'd agree on the tone, but I would point the finger at failure to do serious reform in what is a once a decade or once a generation opportunity.
    This is my criticism time and time again of this government. They haven't done any hard thinking, so they don't have any well thought through plans and the few they have had they chuck them overboard.

    For example, if you are going to have a mansion tax, lets get rid of stamp duty, reform council tax and have a wider property taxation. Same with how you tax all income. Same with pay per mile. Instead we get this drip drip drip on more taxation but always with more complexity and no doubt loopholes / wide open to abuse.
    It's really surprising how unprepared Labour seem to have been for forming a government and actually governing. They had plenty of time to really think about the issues, and have broadly identified many of the problems we face, but their planning and execution has been lamentable so far. As the clock ticks on it seems ever more likely that Labour will fail to achieve much of substance and consequently get the boot at the next general election.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 83,840
    MattW said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    MattW said:

    Nigelb said:

    I think I said at the time of the defence review that much of it was already irrelevant or obsolete.

    Since then, Ajax is a confirmed disaster.
    And now there's no money.

    https://news.sky.com/story/military-chiefs-in-difficult-meeting-as-tensions-mount-over-money-13475876
    Britain's top military chiefs held a "very difficult" meeting this week over how to fund plans to rebuild the armed forces amid fears of further cuts, defence sources have said.

    The Ministry of Defence (MoD) played down a report in the Spectator magazine that the top brass, led by Air Chief Marshal Sir Rich Knighton, the chief of the defence staff, planned to write an extraordinary joint letter to John Healey, the defence secretary, to explain that his defence review published in June cannot be delivered without more cash.

    "There is not a letter," an MoD source said, adding that such a communication was not expected to be received either.

    However, other sources from within the army, navy and air force confirmed to Sky News there is growing concern among the chiefs about a gap between the promises being made by Sir Keir Starmer's government to fix the UK's hollowed-out armed forces and the reality of the size of the defence budget, which is currently not seen as growing fast enough.

    That means either billions of additional pounds must be found more quickly, or ambitions to modernise the armed forces might need to be curbed despite warnings of mounting threats from Russia and China and pressure from Donald Trump on the UK and the rest of Europe to spend more on their own defences...

    TLDR: The army fooked up their programme and want a(nother) bailout. *

    Even now, would it be better to can it and just pivot to CV90?

    CV90 is used by afaics every country in JEF except us, and is made by a subsidiary of BAE. We have successfully demonopolised ships for the navy; perhaps we have to take tis one on the chin.

    * That is probably a little simplistic.
    Ref. #Ajax | returning to @Jack_Watling’s 2021 analysis https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/british-armys-greek-tragedy [see extended excerpt below] problems were evident 15 years ago!

    ▫️With standards within margins, was potential for litigation by manufacturer a factor in prolonging the project❔

    See also https://iiss.org/online-analysis/military-balance/2022/03/is-ajax-the-british-armys-achilles-heel/ [2022]

    ➕the inevitable ‘lessons learned’ govt. statement [2023] https://gov.uk/government/speeches/ministerial-statement-on-ajax-lessons-learned-review

    More backstory / the legal probe in 2021 https://defensenews.com/global/europe/2021/12/16/ajax-acquisition-debacle-prompts-legal-probe-at-uk-defence-ministry/

    https://x.com/CharterhouseSq/status/1993592783056118074
    I like the story that Hobart* personally binned tank designs. Took them out for a spin as commander. Then wrote an appreciation for the manufacturers.

    *According to legend, went up to London as a Home Guard corporal, had breakfast in the NCOs mess of a barracks, went for his appointment with Churchill and came back to the same London barracks as a general.
    EXCLUSIVE: Senior army officers and civil servants have been accused of withholding information from defence minister Luke Pollard about soldiers falling unwell after training on the new Ajax vehicle
    https://x.com/larisamlbrown/status/1994121015195295907
    "Before his visit to General Dynamics, Pollard had been handed written assurances that Ajax was safe, four years after trials were initially paused, based on findings from an army safety investigation team that examined concerns raised over the summer but found no “systemic issues”."
    https://www.thetimes.com/article/72426815-97a5-4797-b7a5-e9e7f65402db?shareToken=e0c0ce3b0d1c1adc9306a12de461e5f8
    This is a very long developing, enormous scandal.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,978
    Whisper it, but Kemi is starting to do rather well, isn't she? ;)
  • glwglw Posts: 10,629
    Nigelb said:

    I think I said at the time of the defence review that much of it was already irrelevant or obsolete.

    Since then, Ajax is a confirmed disaster.
    And now there's no money.

    https://news.sky.com/story/military-chiefs-in-difficult-meeting-as-tensions-mount-over-money-13475876
    Britain's top military chiefs held a "very difficult" meeting this week over how to fund plans to rebuild the armed forces amid fears of further cuts, defence sources have said.

    The Ministry of Defence (MoD) played down a report in the Spectator magazine that the top brass, led by Air Chief Marshal Sir Rich Knighton, the chief of the defence staff, planned to write an extraordinary joint letter to John Healey, the defence secretary, to explain that his defence review published in June cannot be delivered without more cash.

    "There is not a letter," an MoD source said, adding that such a communication was not expected to be received either.

    However, other sources from within the army, navy and air force confirmed to Sky News there is growing concern among the chiefs about a gap between the promises being made by Sir Keir Starmer's government to fix the UK's hollowed-out armed forces and the reality of the size of the defence budget, which is currently not seen as growing fast enough.

    That means either billions of additional pounds must be found more quickly, or ambitions to modernise the armed forces might need to be curbed despite warnings of mounting threats from Russia and China and pressure from Donald Trump on the UK and the rest of Europe to spend more on their own defences...

    We might as well start learning Russian if we can't find some serious money soon.
  • glwglw Posts: 10,629

    Public sector spending, gilt rates and inflation were under much better control under Rishi/Hunt, and the aggregate growth rate in the economy better too.

    Sure, he played down some costs and delayed a CSR - it was an election year - but I've no doubt that would have been addressed had the Conservatives been re-elected, and much less painlessly than under Reeves, and with lower inflation, taxes and higher growth than we've subsequently "enjoyed" on top.

    Anyone who thinks Starmer/Reeves are more competent than Sunak/Hunt must see something I sure as hell can't spot.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 21,568
    This is what a Presidential pardon looks like. 3rd world doeesn't begin to explain it. T

    This is the wild west....and we're going on about Jury trials!

    https://www.youtube.com/shorts/_1n_CzaRnsA
  • glwglw Posts: 10,629
    GIN1138 said:

    Whisper it, but Kemi is starting to do rather well, isn't she? ;)

    It does help when your opponent seems to have an unlimited supply of wheezes to annoy the public with.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 21,568
    GIN1138 said:

    Whisper it, but Kemi is starting to do rather well, isn't she? ;)

    Have I missed something?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 83,840
    Emigration by British and EU citizens is flat (or even slightly down); the large rise in emigration is entirely driven by non-EU citizens leaving.
    https://x.com/s8mb/status/1994037389862343105
  • TazTaz Posts: 22,631
    GIN1138 said:

    Whisper it, but Kemi is starting to do rather well, isn't she? ;)

    She seems to be improving. Certainly.

    But it was a low bar
  • MattWMattW Posts: 31,003
    glw said:

    Nigelb said:

    I think I said at the time of the defence review that much of it was already irrelevant or obsolete.

    Since then, Ajax is a confirmed disaster.
    And now there's no money.

    https://news.sky.com/story/military-chiefs-in-difficult-meeting-as-tensions-mount-over-money-13475876
    Britain's top military chiefs held a "very difficult" meeting this week over how to fund plans to rebuild the armed forces amid fears of further cuts, defence sources have said.

    The Ministry of Defence (MoD) played down a report in the Spectator magazine that the top brass, led by Air Chief Marshal Sir Rich Knighton, the chief of the defence staff, planned to write an extraordinary joint letter to John Healey, the defence secretary, to explain that his defence review published in June cannot be delivered without more cash.

    "There is not a letter," an MoD source said, adding that such a communication was not expected to be received either.

    However, other sources from within the army, navy and air force confirmed to Sky News there is growing concern among the chiefs about a gap between the promises being made by Sir Keir Starmer's government to fix the UK's hollowed-out armed forces and the reality of the size of the defence budget, which is currently not seen as growing fast enough.

    That means either billions of additional pounds must be found more quickly, or ambitions to modernise the armed forces might need to be curbed despite warnings of mounting threats from Russia and China and pressure from Donald Trump on the UK and the rest of Europe to spend more on their own defences...

    We might as well start learning Russian if we can't find some serious money soon.
    I think where the rubber hits the road on this, and the brass don't like it, is that we need to prioritise the RN and the RAF over the army.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 89,125
    edited November 27
    glw said:

    MattW said:

    The budget wasn’t actually that bad.

    As noted upthread, Jeremy Hunt left one hell of a shitty bundle for Reeves to inherit. By and large she’s now cleaned it up. Much of the criticism is off-base. There really was no alternative to raising both spend and taxation, and freezing the bands is actually one of the least worst choices given that the lower paid tend to be somewhat undertaxed (at least by OECD relative standards).


    To be clear, this is a pass mark only.
    Of Labour’s growth agenda there is next to no sign.
    People paying student loans have a right to be extremely aggrieved and the lack of revisiting the triple lock is tragic cowardice.

    I'd agree on the tone, but I would point the finger at failure to do serious reform in what is a once a decade or once a generation opportunity.
    This is my criticism time and time again of this government. They haven't done any hard thinking, so they don't have any well thought through plans and the few they have had they chuck them overboard.

    For example, if you are going to have a mansion tax, lets get rid of stamp duty, reform council tax and have a wider property taxation. Same with how you tax all income. Same with pay per mile. Instead we get this drip drip drip on more taxation but always with more complexity and no doubt loopholes / wide open to abuse.
    It's really surprising how unprepared Labour seem to have been for forming a government and actually governing. They had plenty of time to really think about the issues, and have broadly identified many of the problems we face, but their planning and execution has been lamentable so far. As the clock ticks on it seems ever more likely that Labour will fail to achieve much of substance and consequently get the boot at the next general election.
    The fact they have had to delay both budgets is rather telling and when they have arrived it is basically they have gone to treasury officials and said find up 20 odd tax rises that will raise £100-500m each, but many are contradictory and having to be delayed for years as they don't actually know how to do it e.g the EV PPM stuff was definitely on the back of a fag packet stuff.

    Also increasing tax rate on investment income above tax on PAYE, while also saying we want people stashing less cash into ISAs to get people investing in things....the we will take the SEND funding off councils but forget to budget for how we pay for the massive increase costs projected.

    It literally like nobody sat down and joined the dots. It was just each treasury bod got out their little bit of "how to raise taxation" paper and they stapled them together.
  • isamisam Posts: 43,129

    Andy_JS said:

    "Matt Goodwin
    @GoodwinMJ

    If you want a symbol of modern Britain here is one:

    109,000 more Brits left the country last year than returned while almost exactly that figure, 110,000, claimed asylum in Britain"

    https://x.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1994104750233604574

    So he's against people coming here, but also against people leaving?
    That is what he says, yes. Namely British people leaving and the deficit being made up by asylum seekers. I don’t see it as particularly positive
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 46,751
    MattW said:

    glw said:

    Nigelb said:

    I think I said at the time of the defence review that much of it was already irrelevant or obsolete.

    Since then, Ajax is a confirmed disaster.
    And now there's no money.

    https://news.sky.com/story/military-chiefs-in-difficult-meeting-as-tensions-mount-over-money-13475876
    Britain's top military chiefs held a "very difficult" meeting this week over how to fund plans to rebuild the armed forces amid fears of further cuts, defence sources have said.

    The Ministry of Defence (MoD) played down a report in the Spectator magazine that the top brass, led by Air Chief Marshal Sir Rich Knighton, the chief of the defence staff, planned to write an extraordinary joint letter to John Healey, the defence secretary, to explain that his defence review published in June cannot be delivered without more cash.

    "There is not a letter," an MoD source said, adding that such a communication was not expected to be received either.

    However, other sources from within the army, navy and air force confirmed to Sky News there is growing concern among the chiefs about a gap between the promises being made by Sir Keir Starmer's government to fix the UK's hollowed-out armed forces and the reality of the size of the defence budget, which is currently not seen as growing fast enough.

    That means either billions of additional pounds must be found more quickly, or ambitions to modernise the armed forces might need to be curbed despite warnings of mounting threats from Russia and China and pressure from Donald Trump on the UK and the rest of Europe to spend more on their own defences...

    We might as well start learning Russian if we can't find some serious money soon.
    I think where the rubber hits the road on this, and the brass don't like it, is that we need to prioritise the RN and the RAF over the army.
    And, by implication, buying Army stuff off the shelf. No spare cash to indulge special wishes. CV90s rather than Ajax, etc. etc.
  • Nigelb said:

    Putin says it’s impossible from a legal standpoint to sign any agreement with Ukraine because it doesn’t have a legitimate government. There we go again.
    https://x.com/yarotrof/status/1994062033684152808

    Look, I'm not taking that little squirt Putin seriously unless he demands all of:

    Ukraine
    Belarus
    Moldova
    Estonia
    Latvia
    Lithuania
    Georgia
    Armenia
    Azerbaijan
    Turkmenistan
    Uzbekistan
    Kazakhstan
    Tajikistan
    Kyrgyzstan
    Alaska (Russian till 1867)
    Finland (Russian till 1918)
    The central part Poland (Congress Poland*, Russian till 1918)

    * approximating to today's Voivodeships (regions) of Mazovia, Podlachia, Lodz, almost all of Lublin, and parts of: Warmia-Masuria (tiny bit), Kuyavia_Pomerania, Great Poland, Opole (tiny part), Silesia, Little Poland, and Carpathian Foothills (tiny part).
    D'oh! I forgot about the Kars region* of NE Turkey! It was ceded by the Soviets to Turkey in 1921!

    * so that would be Ardahan, Kars, and Igdir provinces, about half of Artvin, and the NE part of Erzurum.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 31,003
    Carnyx said:

    MattW said:

    glw said:

    Nigelb said:

    I think I said at the time of the defence review that much of it was already irrelevant or obsolete.

    Since then, Ajax is a confirmed disaster.
    And now there's no money.

    https://news.sky.com/story/military-chiefs-in-difficult-meeting-as-tensions-mount-over-money-13475876
    Britain's top military chiefs held a "very difficult" meeting this week over how to fund plans to rebuild the armed forces amid fears of further cuts, defence sources have said.

    The Ministry of Defence (MoD) played down a report in the Spectator magazine that the top brass, led by Air Chief Marshal Sir Rich Knighton, the chief of the defence staff, planned to write an extraordinary joint letter to John Healey, the defence secretary, to explain that his defence review published in June cannot be delivered without more cash.

    "There is not a letter," an MoD source said, adding that such a communication was not expected to be received either.

    However, other sources from within the army, navy and air force confirmed to Sky News there is growing concern among the chiefs about a gap between the promises being made by Sir Keir Starmer's government to fix the UK's hollowed-out armed forces and the reality of the size of the defence budget, which is currently not seen as growing fast enough.

    That means either billions of additional pounds must be found more quickly, or ambitions to modernise the armed forces might need to be curbed despite warnings of mounting threats from Russia and China and pressure from Donald Trump on the UK and the rest of Europe to spend more on their own defences...

    We might as well start learning Russian if we can't find some serious money soon.
    I think where the rubber hits the road on this, and the brass don't like it, is that we need to prioritise the RN and the RAF over the army.
    And, by implication, buying Army stuff off the shelf. No spare cash to indulge special wishes. CV90s rather than Ajax, etc. etc.
    OTOH, the reforms done to service recruitment seem to be - on first signs - making a big difference.

    https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/more-now-joining-than-leaving-british-armed-forces/
  • ydoethur said:

    I've been trying to think what demands Ukraine should make of Russia.

    Some thoughts:

    1) Russia to withdraw all soldiers from Ukrainian territory and the Don Basin, as far as the Volga River.

    2) Russia to withdraw all naval units from the Black Sea.

    3) Russia to fully disarm of all nuclear weapons.

    4) Russia to hand over Putin, Bortnikov, Lavrov, Medvedev etc to be whipped naked through the streets of Bucha before being forced to walk to Kyiv while people point and laugh at their tiny cocks.

    5) As there is no legitimate government in Russia, free and fair elections to be held.

    6) In return, the US will invest an unspecified sum in their oil industry in exchange for 50% of revenues for the next 100 years.

    7) And China will faithfully promise not to invade Siberia.

    These seem to me reasonable, moderate and sensible proposals that would bring a lasting peace to Ukraine and Russia.

    Why has Putin not proposed them given he's so keen on stopping the fighting?

    Just demand Russian troops withdraw from Ukraine, Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Transnistria.
    And the South Kurile Islands, claimed by Japan since 1945!
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 9,217
    edited November 27
    So, Labour delivers a very, very mildly redistributive budget that benefits some at the bottom end (for example minimum wage increases, removal of 2-child cap), and takes a bit from those at the top end (for example 'mansion' tax, salary sacrifice). It's not as much as I'd have wished, but it's a start.
    And of course right-wing people aren't happy about it. Nor should they be. It's a Labour budget.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,511
    Is this a quadruple lock?

    https://x.com/MartinSLewis/status/1994145452158255288

    NEWS: The Chancellor @RachelReevesMP confirmed to me tonight in @itvMLshow that those whose only income is the State Pension will NOT PAY INCOME TAX - not just they won't do self assessment, there will be no tax to pay during this parliament.
  • MattW said:

    I think where the rubber hits the road on this, and the brass don't like it, is that we need to prioritise the RN and the RAF over the army.

    Quite so. The only enemy we're likely to be fighting in the near term is Russia, and it'll be up to our friends on the continent to find the troops for that. We'll provide sea and air power, plus some armour. That's it.
  • TazTaz Posts: 22,631

    Is this a quadruple lock?

    https://x.com/MartinSLewis/status/1994145452158255288

    NEWS: The Chancellor @RachelReevesMP confirmed to me tonight in @itvMLshow that those whose only income is the State Pension will NOT PAY INCOME TAX - not just they won't do self assessment, there will be no tax to pay during this parliament.

    That’s pathetic.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 7,578

    So, Labour delivers a very, very mildly redistributive budget that benefits some at the bottom end (for example minimum wage increases, removal of 2-child cap), and takes a bit from those at the top end (for example 'mansion' tax, salary sacrifice). It's not as much as I'd have wished, but it's a start.
    And of course right-wing people aren't happy about it. Nor should they be. It's a Labour budget.

    It also disbenefits some at the bottom end, low earners who won't get their tax-free allowance re-rated. It would have been more equitable to put 2p on the basic rate and increase the tax-free allowance
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 7,811
    Nigelb said:

    Emigration by British and EU citizens is flat (or even slightly down); the large rise in emigration is entirely driven by non-EU citizens leaving.
    https://x.com/s8mb/status/1994037389862343105

    Yes, the expected churn. Sometimes it doesn't work out and you go home. The idea every Boriswaver is staying is silly. Life happens.
  • Is this a quadruple lock?

    https://x.com/MartinSLewis/status/1994145452158255288

    NEWS: The Chancellor @RachelReevesMP confirmed to me tonight in @itvMLshow that those whose only income is the State Pension will NOT PAY INCOME TAX - not just they won't do self assessment, there will be no tax to pay during this parliament.

    They still ain't going to vote for her.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 9,217

    So, Labour delivers a very, very mildly redistributive budget that benefits some at the bottom end (for example minimum wage increases, removal of 2-child cap), and takes a bit from those at the top end (for example 'mansion' tax, salary sacrifice). It's not as much as I'd have wished, but it's a start.
    And of course right-wing people aren't happy about it. Nor should they be. It's a Labour budget.

    It also disbenefits some at the bottom end, low earners who won't get their tax-free allowance re-rated. It would have been more equitable to put 2p on the basic rate and increase the tax-free allowance
    I agree, but that's politics - didn't dare break the manifesto promise of no rise in the rate of income tax.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 89,125
    edited November 27
    Forget the OBR leak, a major platform for peer reviewed papers for top international conferences has been found to have a huge exploit by some Chinese academics. People have then scraped all the data of who reviewed which paper, what they said etc (both in China and the West), and on Chinese social media particular "villian" reviewers are being dox'ed.
  • Is this a quadruple lock?

    https://x.com/MartinSLewis/status/1994145452158255288

    NEWS: The Chancellor @RachelReevesMP confirmed to me tonight in @itvMLshow that those whose only income is the State Pension will NOT PAY INCOME TAX - not just they won't do self assessment, there will be no tax to pay during this parliament.

    State Pension is below the Personal Allowance, no?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 56,683
    Roger said:

    This is what a Presidential pardon looks like. 3rd world doeesn't begin to explain it. T

    This is the wild west....and we're going on about Jury trials!

    https://www.youtube.com/shorts/_1n_CzaRnsA

    Banana Republics are suing Trump, for giving them a bad name...
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 6,683

    Is this a quadruple lock?

    https://x.com/MartinSLewis/status/1994145452158255288

    NEWS: The Chancellor @RachelReevesMP confirmed to me tonight in @itvMLshow that those whose only income is the State Pension will NOT PAY INCOME TAX - not just they won't do self assessment, there will be no tax to pay during this parliament.

    It’s a total shambles . If this was her intention all along then it should have been announced yesterday and made clear .
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,802

    Is this a quadruple lock?

    https://x.com/MartinSLewis/status/1994145452158255288

    NEWS: The Chancellor @RachelReevesMP confirmed to me tonight in @itvMLshow that those whose only income is the State Pension will NOT PAY INCOME TAX - not just they won't do self assessment, there will be no tax to pay during this parliament.

    State Pension is below the Personal Allowance, no?
    It will be for 2026 (just). But any sort of increase for 2027 and under Triple Lock that's 2.5% minimum will take it past the (frozen) personal allowance.
  • IanB2 said:

    The problem is not the Budget.

    The problem is not the OBR.

    The problem is running permanent budget deficits in the hundreds of billions of pounds and then acting as if all is fine as some artificial rule is being met five years from now, then panicking when anything happens in the next year that throws that off kilter.

    If we were running balanced budgets, with deficits only for swings and roundabouts, countered by budget surpluses also as swings and roundabouts, then the OBR and the rest of the rules malarkey would be moot.

    An under-commented aspect of the budget is that much of the pain has been postponed until 2029. Which is when the election falls due. Maybe this is a betting opportunity, since Labour really can’t afford to be going to the polls in 2029 with its current budget plans; either they intend to go earlier, or those plans will be shredded before 2029 arrives?
    And salting the earth for whoever is chancellor after the election.

    Which chancellors of the last fifty years have, either through malice, incompetence or circumstances left things worse for their successor?

    I can think of a few that left things better, overall, Howe, Lawson, Clarke, Osborne, Hammond (i think, but he did release the grip on finance that Osborne had placed) i can think of a few, whilst not bad overall, left deliberate traps for their successors that deserves a demerit, Darling (under the influence of Brown) and Hunt. Javid and Sunak through circumstance and cowardice blew all the gains on finance control and welfare spending acquired during the 2010s.

    We had done the weight watchers, lost six stone, and to celebrate went on a round the world cruise, gained the six back and a further two on top.

    Reeves is bad, just awful bad, inherited a dreadful state of finances. Hunt left a series of political traps and the labour party rolled into them. The traps were so severe politically that theyve damaged the public finances overall, not just tarnished the reputation of his successor. Unresolved public pay agreements, NI tax cuts, budget forecasts that had been tweaked. A mess.

    Brown could have gone down as one of the greats, but he was a petty, vindicative calculating monster who rapidly increased structural deficit spending that was supposed to be temporary but caused great pain unwinding.
    There were no 'gains on finance control and welfare spending acquired during the 2010s'. The national debt rose by £555 billion.
    That’s a grotesque misrepresentation and it can come about by one of two things. One, you know it is and you are trying to mislead. You don’t know it is and you are a bit thick.

    The national debt is the sum totals of all the deficits, minus payments. Of course the national debt would rise because each year there was a deficit, even a one going down is going to accumulate debt.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 7,092
    nico67 said:

    Is this a quadruple lock?

    https://x.com/MartinSLewis/status/1994145452158255288

    NEWS: The Chancellor @RachelReevesMP confirmed to me tonight in @itvMLshow that those whose only income is the State Pension will NOT PAY INCOME TAX - not just they won't do self assessment, there will be no tax to pay during this parliament.

    It’s a total shambles . If this was her intention all along then it should have been announced yesterday and made clear .
    I am going to be a victim of a miscarriage of financial justice. Because my state pension already exceeds the annual allowance, as it includes Serps, SSP and graduated pension, it is already above the annual allowance. The difference is taxed via my SIPP. Therefore I will be paying tax on that difference, whereas someone with a state pension equal to mine but no other pension will not. Therefore they will pay less tax than me on the same level of state pension. That’s not right!
  • TresTres Posts: 3,232

    Is this a quadruple lock?

    https://x.com/MartinSLewis/status/1994145452158255288

    NEWS: The Chancellor @RachelReevesMP confirmed to me tonight in @itvMLshow that those whose only income is the State Pension will NOT PAY INCOME TAX - not just they won't do self assessment, there will be no tax to pay during this parliament.

    State Pension is below the Personal Allowance, no?
    yes but they frozen the personal allowance till the end of time
  • What a terrible situation we are in:
    The tax free allowance is so low that the old age pension is now caught up in it.
    The freeze means that someone on the national minimum wage will pay £3,880 income tax+Ni a year
    The freeze means that any student on on plan 1 or plan 5 will be paying student loans on the national minimum wage and an extra £1 hourly promotion will have those on plan 2 paying it also.

    When was 9% on all earnings above threshold supposed to kick in on NMW?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 21,568

    Huzzah for Labour grandees.

    Lammy faces huge fight to scrap jury trials, warn Labour grandees

    Justice Secretary ‘will definitely have a battle in the Lords’, says Sir Tony Blair’s attorney general


    David Lammy faces a battle to get plans to scrap jury trials for most crimes through the House of Lords, Labour grandees have warned.

    The Justice Secretary is proposing to scrap the right to a jury trial for defendants accused of offences likely to result in prison sentences of under five years.

    The reforms mean defendants charged with scores of offences, including burglary, affray, fraud, some sexual crimes and criminal damage up to £10,000, will be stripped of their right to elect trial by jury.

    However, Lord Goldsmith, Sir Tony Blair’s attorney general – who was thwarted in his efforts to push through similar reforms in 2003 – said Mr Lammy faced a similar fight in the face of opposition from senior peers.


    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2025/11/27/lammy-faces-huge-fight-to-scrap-jury-trials-labour-grandees/


    Small world. I just had dinner with Peter Goldsmith's first girlfriend.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 31,003
    Taz said:

    Is this a quadruple lock?

    https://x.com/MartinSLewis/status/1994145452158255288

    NEWS: The Chancellor @RachelReevesMP confirmed to me tonight in @itvMLshow that those whose only income is the State Pension will NOT PAY INCOME TAX - not just they won't do self assessment, there will be no tax to pay during this parliament.

    That’s pathetic.
    In 2026-7, Full State Pension will be 12535. Personal Allowance will be 12570.

    So it will be an issue from 2027-8 at first.

    My choice would be to increase the personal allowance in step.
  • sladeslade Posts: 2,284
    Ref gain in Sunderland.
  • TazTaz Posts: 22,631
    I see the Lib Dem’s are, as I predicted, pivoting to the greens from Reform.

    https://x.com/sophyridgesky/status/1993987265060651175?s=61
  • TazTaz Posts: 22,631
    nico67 said:

    Is this a quadruple lock?

    https://x.com/MartinSLewis/status/1994145452158255288

    NEWS: The Chancellor @RachelReevesMP confirmed to me tonight in @itvMLshow that those whose only income is the State Pension will NOT PAY INCOME TAX - not just they won't do self assessment, there will be no tax to pay during this parliament.

    It’s a total shambles . If this was her intention all along then it should have been announced yesterday and made clear .
    What a fucking joke. I cannot believe I voted for this shitshow,
  • sladeslade Posts: 2,284
    Big Lib Dem hold in Pendle.
  • TazTaz Posts: 22,631
    slade said:

    Big Lib Dem hold in Pendle.

    The Piss diamonds hardly gained at all here.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 30,973
    How about a quadruple lock?
    No state pension above the tax threshold?
    Has the advantage of increasing the protection for pensioners by 33%!
    Job's a good'un.
  • TazTaz Posts: 22,631
    slade said:

    Ref gain in Sunderland.

    Good old Hetton. It’s not far from the place I go to for my home brew stuff, just off the A690

    The sort of,place the posh fuckers here sneer at and look down on.
  • TazTaz Posts: 22,631
    dixiedean said:

    How about a quadruple lock?
    No state pension above the tax threshold?
    Has the advantage of increasing the protection for pensioners by 33%!
    Job's a good'un.

    Just link it, and benefits, to GDP growth,
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 30,973
    GIN1138 said:

    Whisper it, but Kemi is starting to do rather well, isn't she? ;)

    Polling c.5% below their most cataclysmic defeat in history whilst opposing the most unpopular govt ever?
    Keep whispering.
    Cos you're in danger of being sectioned if you're any louder.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 38,632
    edited 12:25AM
    Prediction: most of the young people in Australia who are currently complaining about the social media ban for under-16s will be congratulating/supporting it within a year or two. Hopefully it'll then spread to other countries, if not sooner.
  • theProletheProle Posts: 1,597
    edited 1:07AM
    MattW said:

    Taz said:

    Is this a quadruple lock?

    https://x.com/MartinSLewis/status/1994145452158255288

    NEWS: The Chancellor @RachelReevesMP confirmed to me tonight in @itvMLshow that those whose only income is the State Pension will NOT PAY INCOME TAX - not just they won't do self assessment, there will be no tax to pay during this parliament.

    That’s pathetic.
    In 2026-7, Full State Pension will be 12535. Personal Allowance will be 12570.

    So it will be an issue from 2027-8 at first.

    My choice would be to increase the personal allowance in step.
    Isn't the other option to deduct tax at source?

    Let's say the state pension is £15000, and the tax free allowance is £13000 (for the sake of round numbers). £2000 of the pension is thus taxable at 20%, so £400 tax. The state deducts this £400, so actually hands out £14600.

    If you've no other income, that's it, no further paperwork to do. If you're PAYE, they issue a tax code which "knows" you've £15k of other income, and have burnt your personal allowance on it.
    If you're doing a tax return, it's adjusted to reflect the £400 tax already "paid" (no different to doing a tax return whilst also on PAYE).

    It's not ideal, (I'd rather see the threshold moved up), but it's certainly not rocket science.

    Compared to the various gaping holes in the EV milage charge this seems quite watertight!

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