We need to talk about abolishing the budget – politicalbetting.com
We need to talk about abolishing the budget – politicalbetting.com
My latest columnIt's time to scrap the BudgetThe annual speculation paralyses the government, business and individualsWhy not just announce policies when they're ready?The Budget carnival has outlived its usefulnessRead here @theipaper: https://t.co/zQDpQZRt4c
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Something to be said for this.
Perhaps as a continuing plan - Budget as a river, rather than point in time? So the Budget is a continually evolving structure?
As a comparison, here in Ashfield (N Notts area), a 3 bed LHA is £585, and 2 bed LHA is £550. Nottingham is £750 and £650. All numbers are per Calendar Month.
I think the best way to control these costs is to develop a functional housing market, which requires more supply but also never shovelling money at the demand side. That also needs significant reforms, which we have chatted about on PB forever.
I don't think getting rid entirely is wise, but bringing back budget purdah would be. Its the speculation run riot that is the problem. Yesterday's budget was a bit of a nothing-burger.
The £26 billion in new taxes (acually mostly years down the line) are a 2% increase in an annual budget of £1 200 billion. It is pretty much a rounding error.
However the incessant briefing for months in advance of this one, was incredibly damaging to UK PLC. As far as I can tell it was with the connivance of Reeves and Treasury for political reasons.
A shameful way to operate.
It's similar with the way Black Friday, a horrible US import, distorts retail patterns. It's spread widely along with its culture. I heard radio ads for "le Black Friday" in France the other week, not "le vendredi noir".
The problem is not the OBR.
The problem is running permanent budget deficits in the hundreds of billions of pounds and then acting as if all is fine as some artificial rule is being met five years from now, then panicking when anything happens in the next year that throws that off kilter.
If we were running balanced budgets, with deficits only for swings and roundabouts, countered by budget surpluses also as swings and roundabouts, then the OBR and the rest of the rules malarkey would be moot.
I shall be eating an elk schnitzel at the Grand Canyon.
Otherwise income tax would expire.
… hang on a sec… 😏
That was quick.
Cowabunga
In my neck of the woods, taxis are almost impossible to get at school run time because they are al transporting pupils. If for example I have a hospital appointment involving eye drops (so can't drive), and for some reason I don't want to cycle (eg it would be the no-suspension Brompton over the moonscape in my lane) then it is no taxi between 8:15am and 9:5am, for example.
If there was a major push on "safe routes to schools" (which means relentlessly for 10-20 years), so kids could cycle, wheel or walk safely, that could be reduced, plus there would be the mental health benefits of 15-45 minutes outdoor exercise morning and evening *.
"From 2028" sounds as if there will need to be some serious policy co-ordination with the new Councils coming in around then.
* We have the research for this; it is one reason why active travel projects have such better returns than road projects.
Jury service is a goddam nuisance, speaking as someone who's been "called up" twice.
Large complex of underworld-seeking pits near Stonehenge.
Black Friday now seems to apply for weeks !!
Despite the fact that they are common around the world. And even exist for many schools, including SEND specialists.
Years ago, my ex at the time had a child with developmental issues. The child adored her school bus - found the certainty of it as a part of her day appealing,
When my wife left me a few years ago I discovered that I didn't earn enough (on about £70k at the time) to be able to rent where I live, in a similarly priced part of outer London, and have enough left over to support two teenage girls, who stayed with me. Children are expensive.
I should have gone for a much easier job on half the salary. Never thought of that!
Nobody got a taxi to school when I was a kid forty odd years ago.
You would have been bullied to near death if you arrived each morning in a taxi.
I guess we really are in another generation...
"What you may have missed yesterday - because, indeed, the chancellor did not actually spell it out in her speech - is that she is bringing in some significant changes to the Motability scheme: Not just banning so-called ‘luxury’ cars - which she did mention - but lifting the tax exemption on the insurance included in the lease and adding VAT to the advanced payment a disabled customer may have to pay on a vehicle."
(https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cy8vz032qgpt)
Most such children just sat at the back of the class in the local school.
And there were a lot more local schools ...
International law is paramount, yes?
When I was in Cornwall, a while back, a local taxi company was at saturation with school run requests. Not enough drivers, turning away enquiries etc. So the owner rented (and then bought) a big van converted (properly) into a mini bus. Then another….
I understand some kids with special needs will require individual transport, but surely most can just get on a damn bus like I used to have to do.
Register here: https://events.nrla.org.uk/event/dc723881-d076-4f89-b015-dde0038deef9/summary?locale=en-US
(The general commentary is that the income tax change of +2% will add £20-£40 to monthly rentals in England, dependent on location. To my eye that is based on cost pass-through)
Went over. Great place and the local plonk is decent
Down here, the policy has been for decades to encourage integration. I'm not sure when the trend switched - it could have been as far back as the 1980s.
Some may remember a campaign by an aggrieved father, during the Coaltion years, so that his son (and others) be sent to a “normal” school.
I first ran into these questions when I was very young, and my mum was Head Physio at a special school.
The trend to a "you are part of society, not something else" approach to disability has its roots in national policy back in the 1980s. That is adopting the "social model" of disability, not the "medical model". An simple example would be "make transport systems usable by everyone" rather than "get them a special taxi".
For background.
https://www.specialneedsjungle.com/disability-history-inclusive-education-reality/
In some ways this years Budget is a victim of its timing. I think it is about as late as can be as HMT wanted OBR to produce a forecast that took into account some of the recent changes - in essence they were hoping to get a bit more "headroom." That meant there was a long time between conference season and the budget, and lots of journalists with very little to write about. So you had the endless cycle of telegraph "exclusive" - which as we know largely turned out to largely be way off beam.
Well done Rachel.
Growth agenda
https://x.com/laraincornwall/status/1993749174404444230?s=61
Nothing to do with the budget as far as I can see. Just normal rates reassessments plus no more covid relief.
Last year it would have been around £22,000.
The budget extinguished that hope, hence my "effectively" comment.
The new full rates charges for RHL properties come in from April next year, I think.
(At the same time the multiplier will be reduced from 49.9 p to 43p.)
https://x.com/yarotrof/status/1994062033684152808
I don't. I have a six month rolling forecast and decide what I can afford as I go along.
I think the government should have a five year rolling forecast, updated monthly, with adjustments in forward spending and tax as required to keep within fiscal rules.
It's like driving a car. You make adjustments as you go along depending on what turns up and what you can see ahead of you.
Senior officials in the Trump Administration believe that the leaked call in October between U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Russian President Vladimir Putin’s top foreign policy aide, Yuri Ushakov, that was published in an article yesterday by Bloomberg, was recorded and leaked to the news organization by a foreign intelligence agency - likely one based in Europe - that was targeting a phone utilized by Ushakov, according to the Wall Street Journal.
https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1993898531510472921
Our intelligence services aren't useless, after all.
The budget is largely irrelevant most years to altering the shape of the economy (though there are exceptions), and it's particularly irrelevant this year, but it, or something very like it is an administrative necessity, I think ?
The guy now has the attention span and memory of a gnat, so is to a large extent the plaything of the last administration member who saw him and managed to tickle the right set of baked in prejudices.
Which is why Witkoff's piece of treachery with the Russians was so effective.
Ukraine
Belarus
Moldova
Estonia
Latvia
Lithuania
Georgia
Armenia
Azerbaijan
Turkmenistan
Uzbekistan
Kazakhstan
Tajikistan
Kyrgyzstan
Alaska (Russian till 1867)
Finland (Russian till 1918)
The central part Poland (Congress Poland*, Russian till 1918)
* approximating to today's Voivodeships (regions) of Mazovia, Podlachia, Lodz, almost all of Lublin, and parts of: Warmia-Masuria (tiny bit), Kuyavia_Pomerania, Great Poland, Opole (tiny part), Silesia, Little Poland, and Carpathian Foothills (tiny part).
Rubio, for all his faults, seems to be one of the few senior members of the administration still with some sort of commitment to European security,
This government is a huge disappointment to anyone who had any great hopes for it (not really me), but it's not yet a full on disaster.
I can see that pub landlords would disagree, of course.
Trump departed for Florida without taking questions, amid breaking news that leaked phone calls are throwing scrutiny on Witkoff’s pro-Kremlin positions.
https://x.com/ralakbar/status/1993457284761223598
Plus, as our country continues to throw away its hard influence among the world’s major powers, being able to stage a spectacle remains our USP. Thankfully I will be long gone by the time we’ve sunk to becoming merely a theme park that Americans and Asians will visit to watch us performing our funny rituals in funny costumes.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/crrkw1p14eqo
BREAKING: Rubio Announces Bold New Strategy, Says Ukraine Must Reach Peace Before Receiving the One Thing That Would Help Them Reach Peace
Politico reports that Marco Rubio has informed European allies that the United States wants a peace deal before offering any security guarantee to Ukraine, a plan experts describe as “giving someone a parachute after they hit the ground.”
Diplomats were left blinking in confusion as Rubio explained that Ukraine must first negotiate a peace agreement without the security guarantee that is literally the entire reason anyone signs a security guarantee...
https://x.com/Microinteracti1/status/1993930142993805594