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Voters back restricting trial by jury (but not for themselves) – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,810
edited 7:51AM in General
Voters back restricting trial by jury (but not for themselves) – politicalbetting.com

With the government proposing to scrap jury trials for crimes carrying a sentence of less than 5 years in order to try and clear the courts backlog, Britons are split on the proposalSupport: 41%Oppose: 36%yougov.co.uk/topics/polit…

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  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 68,336
    The bigger question is will it get through the House of Lords unscathed

    It was not a manifesto commitment
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 53,418
    Nigelb said:

    @Cyclefree had it right yesterday.

    Just scrap the spend on digital ID and put it into the Justice Dept.

    Yes. I had hoped that, having floated it and met with a storm of protest, the ID plan might quietly disappear, but I heard our Iron Chancellor recommit the government to it yesterday, during her speech.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 30,980
    Legal Eagle: (partial) recap. Worth a watch - 20 minutes.

    Every Illegal Act Trump Committed in 2025 (So Far)
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hybL-GJov7M
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 124,997
    edited 8:04AM

    The bigger question is will it get through the House of Lords unscathed

    It was not a manifesto commitment

    There's enough time for the Parliament Acts to kick in, or they could make it part of a money bill.

    Starmer could also go nuclear and ask rhe King to appoint 300 peers so the Lords reflect the membership of the Commons.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,942
    My sympathy for reducing our use of jury trials stems largely from the experience of four weeks spent mostly hanging around in jury rooms, interspersed with small periods of time actually sitting on trials. I see my suggestions for cutting down on some of the inefficiency was shot down by Cyclefree and other great and good posters on this august site, so maybe I should can it. I'm still not sure though why you need twelve jurors in all cases. How did we alight on that number? Why wouldn't ten or six work?

    From my experience you usually get three or four jurors who say nothing and just vote with the crowd.

    Smaller numbers anyone?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 58,595
    So almost none of the leaked and trailed measures actually went into the budget.

    Everyone who was expecting an ‘exit tax’ and planning accordingly, will now carry on doing so in the expectation that will now happen next year instead.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 69,065
    That first chart is bloody depressing. What the hell have we become as a country?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 46,742
    Nigelb said:

    @Cyclefree had it right yesterday.

    Just scrap the spend on digital ID and put it into the Justice Dept.

    I don't think that ius the right way to think. The justice system should be sorted out as a high priority in its own right.

    What I am not quite sure about is how one clears the backlog quickly without needing to recruit lots more staff at all the choke points in the legal sausage machine. And ending with a reasonable balance of stuff which is still useful in the future rather than being 'wasted'. THe Nightingale Hospitals were never used - though that can't be called waste: it wasn't predictable at the time.

    The clear impression I get is of years, especially under Mr Osborne, of skimping and shutting down everywhere the HO could.

    For instance modernising jury selection to the legal equivalent of ERNIE* doesn't help with a shortage of criminal lawyers, so the pay rates for defence counsel need to be increased (baaad acc to the DT and DM, which is as we all know what SKS is most terrified of, surpassing all else).

    But if one worked through things ... eg nissen huts for courtrooms like Nightingale Hospitals ... or simply had a go at modernising the system permanently as one went along ...

    *Which does fail in the sense of seeing justice to be done in front of you, in contrast to paper lots in a bowl. But if people are happy with Premium Bonds ...?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 124,997
    edited 8:10AM
    Sandpit said:

    So almost none of the leaked and trailed measures actually went into the budget.

    Everyone who was expecting an ‘exit tax’ and planning accordingly, will now carry on doing so in the expectation that will now happen next year instead.

    Yeah, I saw at work only 8% of the Telegraph's 'exclusives' made it into the budget.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 69,065
    Sandpit said:

    So almost none of the leaked and trailed measures actually went into the budget.

    Everyone who was expecting an ‘exit tax’ and planning accordingly, will now carry on doing so in the expectation that will now happen next year instead.

    So much heat and light signifying nothing would be my summary of the last three months.

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 53,418

    My sympathy for reducing our use of jury trials stems largely from the experience of four weeks spent mostly hanging around in jury rooms, interspersed with small periods of time actually sitting on trials. I see my suggestions for cutting down on some of the inefficiency was shot down by Cyclefree and other great and good posters on this august site, so maybe I should can it. I'm still not sure though why you need twelve jurors in all cases. How did we alight on that number? Why wouldn't ten or six work?

    From my experience you usually get three or four jurors who say nothing and just vote with the crowd.

    Smaller numbers anyone?

    I'm strongly in favour of jury trials, tempered only by my experience of once having done it.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 124,997
    Can anybody recommend any good books about Airey Neave please?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 124,997

    That first chart is bloody depressing. What the hell have we become as a country?

    People really don't want to do jury service.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 46,742

    Sandpit said:

    So almost none of the leaked and trailed measures actually went into the budget.

    Everyone who was expecting an ‘exit tax’ and planning accordingly, will now carry on doing so in the expectation that will now happen next year instead.

    Yeah, I saw at work only 8% of the Telegraph's 'exclusives' made it into the budget.
    PB after several weeks of the DT reminds me of the field behind the house after the farmer has driven his muck-spreader around. Shite splattered everywhere (though in the agricultural instance it's acvtually useful).
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 69,065

    My sympathy for reducing our use of jury trials stems largely from the experience of four weeks spent mostly hanging around in jury rooms, interspersed with small periods of time actually sitting on trials. I see my suggestions for cutting down on some of the inefficiency was shot down by Cyclefree and other great and good posters on this august site, so maybe I should can it. I'm still not sure though why you need twelve jurors in all cases. How did we alight on that number? Why wouldn't ten or six work?

    From my experience you usually get three or four jurors who say nothing and just vote with the crowd.

    Smaller numbers anyone?

    Twelve comes from at least Henry II's day.

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 63,211

    My sympathy for reducing our use of jury trials stems largely from the experience of four weeks spent mostly hanging around in jury rooms, interspersed with small periods of time actually sitting on trials. I see my suggestions for cutting down on some of the inefficiency was shot down by Cyclefree and other great and good posters on this august site, so maybe I should can it. I'm still not sure though why you need twelve jurors in all cases. How did we alight on that number? Why wouldn't ten or six work?

    From my experience you usually get three or four jurors who say nothing and just vote with the crowd.

    Smaller numbers anyone?

    I agree with you that there are drawbacks, but I think those are worth putting up with for the benefits. And the change is not being proposed for a better system but purely as a cost-cutting measure.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 69,065

    The bigger question is will it get through the House of Lords unscathed

    It was not a manifesto commitment

    No it wont.

    This is madness and it wont happen and to think it was being discussed and planned for under Starmer - a frigging human rights lawyer - is incredible.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 124,997

    The bigger question is will it get through the House of Lords unscathed

    It was not a manifesto commitment

    No it wont.

    This is madness and it wont happen and to think it was being discussed and planned for under Starmer - a frigging human rights lawyer - is incredible.
    It was pointed out an even more fundamental legal principle was overturned in the last twenty years, sometimes you have to realise a concept 800 years old might not be suitable for the modern day.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 53,418

    Can anybody recommend any good books about Airey Neave please?

    I read a book by him once - 'Little Cyclone', about his escape through occupied France; essentially the storyline of Secret Army. It was a good story, but writing wasn't his forte.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,959
    Heh. On the BBC, the Chancellor states that, as I assumed, no one has done any thinking on how an EV mileage charge will work. It’s for 2028 so they will consult and it won’t happen. Another measure purely for the spreadsheet. There’s a lot of those…
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,976
    Sandpit said:

    So almost none of the leaked and trailed measures actually went into the budget.

    Everyone who was expecting an ‘exit tax’ and planning accordingly, will now carry on doing so in the expectation that will now happen next year instead.

    I've yet to find a comprehensive macro analysis of the budget and if anyone has a non paywalled version I would be grateful for the link.

    What I have gleaned so far is a lot of clutter, some serious back ending of tax liabilities in future years and a general feeling of meh. Absolutely no attempt to address or even acknowledge our serious underlying problems (just like Reeves' first budget) and every chance that the entire quarter of paralysis is going to be repeated next year. There is some relief that it was not worse but worse would have been better if it was actually looking to achieve something other than the pretence of business as usual.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 46,742

    Can anybody recommend any good books about Airey Neave please?

    THere's always his own writings about his escape from Colditz and his work in MI9 - They have hteir Exits and Saturday at MI9 but they prob don't cover the political era.

    Patrick Bishop's biog I seem to remember reading - it was acceptable enough but I didn't feel the need to keep it. There is another biog by Routledge which I have not read.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 31,472
    IanB2 said:

    Nigelb said:

    @Cyclefree had it right yesterday.

    Just scrap the spend on digital ID and put it into the Justice Dept.

    Yes. I had hoped that, having floated it and met with a storm of protest, the ID plan might quietly disappear, but I heard our Iron Chancellor recommit the government to it yesterday, during her speech.
    They will continue to be committed to it until they are not...
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 46,742

    My sympathy for reducing our use of jury trials stems largely from the experience of four weeks spent mostly hanging around in jury rooms, interspersed with small periods of time actually sitting on trials. I see my suggestions for cutting down on some of the inefficiency was shot down by Cyclefree and other great and good posters on this august site, so maybe I should can it. I'm still not sure though why you need twelve jurors in all cases. How did we alight on that number? Why wouldn't ten or six work?

    From my experience you usually get three or four jurors who say nothing and just vote with the crowd.

    Smaller numbers anyone?

    Twelve comes from at least Henry II's day.

    Not in Scotland, where moreover it is 15 (some porposal for a reduction to 12 though IIRC).
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 23,861
    People are answering a different question:

    "If you were guilty, which would give you a better chance of being found not guilty?"

    Sometimes juries ignore the letter of the law. Sometimes they come out with a ridiculous verdict.
  • CumberlandGapCumberlandGap Posts: 281

    Sandpit said:

    So almost none of the leaked and trailed measures actually went into the budget.

    Everyone who was expecting an ‘exit tax’ and planning accordingly, will now carry on doing so in the expectation that will now happen next year instead.

    Yeah, I saw at work only 8% of the Telegraph's 'exclusives' made it into the budget.
    But is that because the Telegraph made it up, or because it was leaked as a flag flying exercise?
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 1,943

    That first chart is bloody depressing. What the hell have we become as a country?

    People really don't want to do jury service.
    Yep, it's boring and aggravating.
    Unless you have a public-spirited employer you'll be out of pocket, you stand a small chance of getting a long case. It's a lot of "waiting to do nothing" and being to come back tomorrow
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,976

    My sympathy for reducing our use of jury trials stems largely from the experience of four weeks spent mostly hanging around in jury rooms, interspersed with small periods of time actually sitting on trials. I see my suggestions for cutting down on some of the inefficiency was shot down by Cyclefree and other great and good posters on this august site, so maybe I should can it. I'm still not sure though why you need twelve jurors in all cases. How did we alight on that number? Why wouldn't ten or six work?

    From my experience you usually get three or four jurors who say nothing and just vote with the crowd.

    Smaller numbers anyone?

    Twelve comes from at least Henry II's day.

    In Scotland we have 15! And I will be giving my speech to the jury this morning having raced through the evidence yesterday.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,959

    People are answering a different question:

    "If you were guilty, which would give you a better chance of being found not guilty?"

    Sometimes juries ignore the letter of the law. Sometimes they come out with a ridiculous verdict.

    Jury nullification is an important reason for having them.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 31,472
    biggles said:

    Heh. On the BBC, the Chancellor states that, as I assumed, no one has done any thinking on how an EV mileage charge will work. It’s for 2028 so they will consult and it won’t happen. Another measure purely for the spreadsheet. There’s a lot of those…

    I've read the document. Its JOYOUS. Fill in a webform to say how many miles. Pay per month if you like. A mandatory annual inspection at a VOSA approved facility paid for by the government. Balancing payment or credits. Lots and lots and lots of bureaucracy. They're trying to say "ah we'll use the existing framework" to make it cheaper, but it won't be.

    Then we have the Irish question. No change to the plan for norniron even though people go abroad a lot. No exemption for driving abroad. Apparently you will pay per mile abroad because you would if it was fuel duty - but you don't pay duty on fuel bought outside the UK. Being charged a tax on something not done in the UK with no tax due to the UK on any other vehicle? Will be a fun court case.

    Metrics on my improv reaction video yesterday have been off the scale. I'm going to pick the details apart in another video next week. Will have less traffic but its still free money...
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,924

    My sympathy for reducing our use of jury trials stems largely from the experience of four weeks spent mostly hanging around in jury rooms, interspersed with small periods of time actually sitting on trials. I see my suggestions for cutting down on some of the inefficiency was shot down by Cyclefree and other great and good posters on this august site, so maybe I should can it. I'm still not sure though why you need twelve jurors in all cases. How did we alight on that number? Why wouldn't ten or six work?

    From my experience you usually get three or four jurors who say nothing and just vote with the crowd.

    Smaller numbers anyone?

    Seems sensible to me.
    I wouldn't listen to the lawyers too much, they tend to only see the risks in things.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 124,997
    edited 8:25AM
    IanB2 said:

    Can anybody recommend any good books about Airey Neave please?

    I read a book by him once - 'Little Cyclone', about his escape through occupied France; essentially the storyline of Secret Army. It was a good story, but writing wasn't his forte.
    Carnyx said:

    Can anybody recommend any good books about Airey Neave please?

    THere's always his own writings about his escape from Colditz and his work in MI9 - They have hteir Exits and Saturday at MI9 but they prob don't cover the political era.

    Patrick Bishop's biog I seem to remember reading - it was acceptable enough but I didn't feel the need to keep it. There is another biog by Routledge which I have not read.
    Thanks.

    I recently fell down a social media rabbit hole and some Faragist type (very anti Ukraine/NATO) said that according to that prize idiot Enoch Powell, Airey Neave was assassinated by the Yanks to ensure a united Ireland would join NATO.

    I mean why they didn't assassinate Roy Mason is bugging me, what was so special about Lt. Col Neave?
  • CumberlandGapCumberlandGap Posts: 281

    My sympathy for reducing our use of jury trials stems largely from the experience of four weeks spent mostly hanging around in jury rooms, interspersed with small periods of time actually sitting on trials. I see my suggestions for cutting down on some of the inefficiency was shot down by Cyclefree and other great and good posters on this august site, so maybe I should can it. I'm still not sure though why you need twelve jurors in all cases. How did we alight on that number? Why wouldn't ten or six work?

    From my experience you usually get three or four jurors who say nothing and just vote with the crowd.

    Smaller numbers anyone?

    But just because a system is flawed and needs improved, is no reason to junk it to a system that has intrinsic infringements on the people to the advantage of the state.

    Whether its hurty words, burning religious books, or holding up banners supporting homicidal psychopaths, there's a history of juries holding up a single finger to an over energetic Crown wishing to curtail traditional concepts of liberty and freedom.
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 1,943
    Carnyx said:

    Nigelb said:

    @Cyclefree had it right yesterday.

    Just scrap the spend on digital ID and put it into the Justice Dept.

    I don't think that ius the right way to think. The justice system should be sorted out as a high priority in its own right.

    What I am not quite sure about is how one clears the backlog quickly without needing to recruit lots more staff at all the choke points in the legal sausage machine. And ending with a reasonable balance of stuff which is still useful in the future rather than being 'wasted'. THe Nightingale Hospitals were never used - though that can't be called waste: it wasn't predictable at the time.

    The clear impression I get is of years, especially under Mr Osborne, of skimping and shutting down everywhere the HO could.

    For instance modernising jury selection to the legal equivalent of ERNIE* doesn't help with a shortage of criminal lawyers, so the pay rates for defence counsel need to be increased (baaad acc to the DT and DM, which is as we all know what SKS is most terrified of, surpassing all else).

    But if one worked through things ... eg nissen huts for courtrooms like Nightingale Hospitals ... or simply had a go at modernising the system permanently as one went along ...

    *Which does fail in the sense of seeing justice to be done in front of you, in contrast to paper lots in a bowl. But if people are happy with Premium Bonds ...?
    What are the consequences of sorting out the backlog?
    There's a lot on remand but are the govt limited in the rate at which they can clear the backlog by lack of prison space. Also maxed out. Does it require temporary prisons to absorb the backlog?
    Where are additional legal counsel, CPS case workers etc coming from at short notice?
    It's not as simple as extra funding. It looks like it will have to be cleared gradually.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 58,595
    edited 8:26AM
    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    So almost none of the leaked and trailed measures actually went into the budget.

    Everyone who was expecting an ‘exit tax’ and planning accordingly, will now carry on doing so in the expectation that will now happen next year instead.

    I've yet to find a comprehensive macro analysis of the budget and if anyone has a non paywalled version I would be grateful for the link.

    What I have gleaned so far is a lot of clutter, some serious back ending of tax liabilities in future years and a general feeling of meh. Absolutely no attempt to address or even acknowledge our serious underlying problems (just like Reeves' first budget) and every chance that the entire quarter of paralysis is going to be repeated next year. There is some relief that it was not worse but worse would have been better if it was actually looking to achieve something other than the pretence of business as usual.
    It’s yet more tinkering which just upsets a number of identifiable and organised groups of people.

    I’m still of the opinion that if they knew the Budget was going to be unpopular, they should have bitten the bullet and raised income tax. At least they’d have generated decent money. Something like 5p on income tax 20% rate, while cutting employee NI by 3%.

    Instead, as with last year, they’ve upset everyone without raising serious money.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 20,788

    Sandpit said:

    So almost none of the leaked and trailed measures actually went into the budget.

    Everyone who was expecting an ‘exit tax’ and planning accordingly, will now carry on doing so in the expectation that will now happen next year instead.

    Yeah, I saw at work only 8% of the Telegraph's 'exclusives' made it into the budget.
    But is that because the Telegraph made it up, or because it was leaked as a flag flying exercise?
    Think of it this way.

    You are a Labour politician/SPAD wanting to run something up the flagpole to see who salutes.

    Do you leak stuff to a paper, like the Mail/Telegraph, that actively hates you?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 23,861
    Folk want others to be found guilty, and themselves not guilty.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 53,418
    edited 8:30AM

    IanB2 said:

    Can anybody recommend any good books about Airey Neave please?

    I read a book by him once - 'Little Cyclone', about his escape through occupied France; essentially the storyline of Secret Army. It was a good story, but writing wasn't his forte.
    Carnyx said:

    Can anybody recommend any good books about Airey Neave please?

    THere's always his own writings about his escape from Colditz and his work in MI9 - They have hteir Exits and Saturday at MI9 but they prob don't cover the political era.

    Patrick Bishop's biog I seem to remember reading - it was acceptable enough but I didn't feel the need to keep it. There is another biog by Routledge which I have not read.
    Thanks.

    I recently fell down a social media rabbit hole and some Faragist type (very anti Ukraine/NATO) said that according to that prize idiot Enoch Powell, Airey Neave was assassinated by the Yanks to ensure a united Ireland would join NATO.

    I mean why they didn't assassinate Roy Mason is bugging me, what was so special about Lt. Col Neave?
    Neave was prominent in wanting to take a more aggressive, military approach to the IRA, beliving that he could 'win the war' by flooding the province with troops including the special forces. That's why he became a target.

    edit/ Given his various wartime experiences with underground movements, you could argue that his political view on that was surprisingly naive?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,976

    biggles said:

    Heh. On the BBC, the Chancellor states that, as I assumed, no one has done any thinking on how an EV mileage charge will work. It’s for 2028 so they will consult and it won’t happen. Another measure purely for the spreadsheet. There’s a lot of those…

    I've read the document. Its JOYOUS. Fill in a webform to say how many miles. Pay per month if you like. A mandatory annual inspection at a VOSA approved facility paid for by the government. Balancing payment or credits. Lots and lots and lots of bureaucracy. They're trying to say "ah we'll use the existing framework" to make it cheaper, but it won't be.

    Then we have the Irish question. No change to the plan for norniron even though people go abroad a lot. No exemption for driving abroad. Apparently you will pay per mile abroad because you would if it was fuel duty - but you don't pay duty on fuel bought outside the UK. Being charged a tax on something not done in the UK with no tax due to the UK on any other vehicle? Will be a fun court case.

    Metrics on my improv reaction video yesterday have been off the scale. I'm going to pick the details apart in another video next week. Will have less traffic but its still free money...
    If you find a workable scheme in there please let the government know.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 69,065
    Alistair Heath has taken it well:

    "Her new [property] tax – a toxic mix of two hated levies, council tax and IHT – is equivalent to detonating a time bomb under Middle England."

    "Socialism is back, and the property-owning democracy is out. Labour has declared war on social mobility, on petit bourgeois values, on the consumer society and on conservative Britain."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/11/26/britain-now-socialist-country-what-reeves-budget-means/
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 58,595

    biggles said:

    Heh. On the BBC, the Chancellor states that, as I assumed, no one has done any thinking on how an EV mileage charge will work. It’s for 2028 so they will consult and it won’t happen. Another measure purely for the spreadsheet. There’s a lot of those…

    I've read the document. Its JOYOUS. Fill in a webform to say how many miles. Pay per month if you like. A mandatory annual inspection at a VOSA approved facility paid for by the government. Balancing payment or credits. Lots and lots and lots of bureaucracy. They're trying to say "ah we'll use the existing framework" to make it cheaper, but it won't be.

    Then we have the Irish question. No change to the plan for norniron even though people go abroad a lot. No exemption for driving abroad. Apparently you will pay per mile abroad because you would if it was fuel duty - but you don't pay duty on fuel bought outside the UK. Being charged a tax on something not done in the UK with no tax due to the UK on any other vehicle? Will be a fun court case.

    Metrics on my improv reaction video yesterday have been off the scale. I'm going to pick the details apart in another video next week. Will have less traffic but its still free money...
    How many RoI-registered cars will end up spending most of their lives in NI and GB?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 46,742

    Alistair Heath has taken it well:

    "Her new [property] tax – a toxic mix of two hated levies, council tax and IHT – is equivalent to detonating a time bomb under Middle England."

    "Socialism is back, and the property-owning democracy is out. Labour has declared war on social mobility, on petit bourgeois values, on the consumer society and on conservative Britain."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/11/26/britain-now-socialist-country-what-reeves-budget-means/

    You have to remember that what the DT prsesumably hates about council tax is that it isn't a proper Rifkindian poll tax.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,976

    Alistair Heath has taken it well:

    "Her new [property] tax – a toxic mix of two hated levies, council tax and IHT – is equivalent to detonating a time bomb under Middle England."

    "Socialism is back, and the property-owning democracy is out. Labour has declared war on social mobility, on petit bourgeois values, on the consumer society and on conservative Britain."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/11/26/britain-now-socialist-country-what-reeves-budget-means/

    I can't read that article but it seems like the usual over heated bollocks you get from Heath. In reality, to rework the old joke, Reeves has moved from being indecisive to being not so sure.
  • CumberlandGapCumberlandGap Posts: 281

    Sandpit said:

    So almost none of the leaked and trailed measures actually went into the budget.

    Everyone who was expecting an ‘exit tax’ and planning accordingly, will now carry on doing so in the expectation that will now happen next year instead.

    Yeah, I saw at work only 8% of the Telegraph's 'exclusives' made it into the budget.
    But is that because the Telegraph made it up, or because it was leaked as a flag flying exercise?
    Think of it this way.

    You are a Labour politician/SPAD wanting to run something up the flagpole to see who salutes.

    Do you leak stuff to a paper, like the Mail/Telegraph, that actively hates you?
    You would be surprised, there as much wanting to gauge who they like as much as those they don't. The leaking of things from this budget isnt the fault of the telegraph.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,976
    IanB2 said:

    Freedman's conclusion:

    Barring unexpected scandals or disasters Starmer and Reeves should now be safe until the May local elections, giving themselves time to shore up support. But the cost of choosing this [less bold] option is that, once again, the truly difficult decisions have been put off for later and little has been done to deal with the big problems facing the country.

    Yep, that's what @Sandpit and I were saying.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 53,418
    edited 8:42AM
    Dopermean said:

    That first chart is bloody depressing. What the hell have we become as a country?

    People really don't want to do jury service.
    Yep, it's boring and aggravating.
    Unless you have a public-spirited employer you'll be out of pocket, you stand a small chance of getting a long case. It's a lot of "waiting to do nothing" and being to come back tomorrow
    And the whole system runs without any regard whatsoever as to the interests or convenience of jury members, so you spend two weeks being messed about, told nothing and treated like s**t. Of course, it would be a nonsense to organise our justice system around the jury members, but nevertheless it isn't much fun being the meat in someone else's machine.
  • CumberlandGapCumberlandGap Posts: 281
    edited 8:38AM
    IanB2 said:

    Dopermean said:

    That first chart is bloody depressing. What the hell have we become as a country?

    People really don't want to do jury service.
    Yep, it's boring and aggravating.
    Unless you have a public-spirited employer you'll be out of pocket, you stand a small chance of getting a long case. It's a lot of "waiting to do nothing" and being to come back tomorrow
    And the whole system runs without any regard as to the interests or convenience of jury members, so you spend two weeks being messed about, told nothing and treated like s**t. Of course, it would be a nonsense to organise our justice system around the jury members, but nevertheless it isn't much fun being the meat in someone else's machine.
    Absolutely... This is an opportunity to change this though surely? In the old days in working class jobs the way courts run would have been classed as a restricted practice caused by over powerful unions.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 21,184
    DavidL said:

    IanB2 said:

    Freedman's conclusion:

    Barring unexpected scandals or disasters Starmer and Reeves should now be safe until the May local elections, giving themselves time to shore up support. But the cost of choosing this [less bold] option is that, once again, the truly difficult decisions have been put off for later and little has been done to deal with the big problems facing the country.

    Yep, that's what @Sandpit and I were saying.
    The country doesn’t want anyone to deal with the big problems
  • CumberlandGapCumberlandGap Posts: 281

    DavidL said:

    IanB2 said:

    Freedman's conclusion:

    Barring unexpected scandals or disasters Starmer and Reeves should now be safe until the May local elections, giving themselves time to shore up support. But the cost of choosing this [less bold] option is that, once again, the truly difficult decisions have been put off for later and little has been done to deal with the big problems facing the country.

    Yep, that's what @Sandpit and I were saying.
    The country doesn’t want anyone to deal with the big problems
    It feels like that, but a point will be reached when they do. It happened with Thatcher, it happened with Cameron (though it slipped away). Kemi has set herself up like that yesterday. Just as big Nige is looking a bit old, tarnished and jaded, Kemi is looking like a person growing into her role, and on the area that is central to everything.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 33,284
    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Can anybody recommend any good books about Airey Neave please?

    I read a book by him once - 'Little Cyclone', about his escape through occupied France; essentially the storyline of Secret Army. It was a good story, but writing wasn't his forte.
    Carnyx said:

    Can anybody recommend any good books about Airey Neave please?

    THere's always his own writings about his escape from Colditz and his work in MI9 - They have hteir Exits and Saturday at MI9 but they prob don't cover the political era.

    Patrick Bishop's biog I seem to remember reading - it was acceptable enough but I didn't feel the need to keep it. There is another biog by Routledge which I have not read.
    Thanks.

    I recently fell down a social media rabbit hole and some Faragist type (very anti Ukraine/NATO) said that according to that prize idiot Enoch Powell, Airey Neave was assassinated by the Yanks to ensure a united Ireland would join NATO.

    I mean why they didn't assassinate Roy Mason is bugging me, what was so special about Lt. Col Neave?
    Neave was prominent in wanting to take a more aggressive, military approach to the IRA, beliving that he could 'win the war' by flooding the province with troops including the special forces. That's why he became a target.

    edit/ Given his various wartime experiences with underground movements, you could argue that his political view on that was surprisingly naive?
    We cannot really call it naive since it was never attempted.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,776
    Dopermean said:

    That first chart is bloody depressing. What the hell have we become as a country?

    People really don't want to do jury service.
    Yep, it's boring and aggravating.
    Unless you have a public-spirited employer you'll be out of pocket, you stand a small chance of getting a long case. It's a lot of "waiting to do nothing" and being to come back tomorrow
    When I was a civil servant I hoped for jury service. The employer had good terms for it and boring and aggravating, waiting to do nothing and come back tomorrow would have been, at worst, more of the same in a different place with different people!
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 58,595
    edited 8:45AM
    Pub landlords not happy with Rachel. How does a small business find an extra five grand a month?

    https://x.com/laraincornwall/status/1993749174404444230

    Can we talk about the business rate value reassessment. Our pub: £18,500 to £73,500.

    Please explain @RachelReevesMP

    I’m numb.

    #hospitality
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 12,670

    Alistair Heath has taken it well:

    "Her new [property] tax – a toxic mix of two hated levies, council tax and IHT – is equivalent to detonating a time bomb under Middle England."

    "Socialism is back, and the property-owning democracy is out. Labour has declared war on social mobility, on petit bourgeois values, on the consumer society and on conservative Britain."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/11/26/britain-now-socialist-country-what-reeves-budget-means/

    Just completely incoherent. Untaxed property wealth is one of the biggest inhibitors to social mobility in this country. And the rate charge on a tiny flats on Teesside is still going to be way higher than that on these "mansions".

    OTOH, it does demonstrate the power of doing a flat 0.75%/1% charge instead - much easier to defend in the media than the complicated thing they have actually come up with.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 33,284
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    IanB2 said:

    Freedman's conclusion:

    Barring unexpected scandals or disasters Starmer and Reeves should now be safe until the May local elections, giving themselves time to shore up support. But the cost of choosing this [less bold] option is that, once again, the truly difficult decisions have been put off for later and little has been done to deal with the big problems facing the country.

    Yep, that's what @Sandpit and I were saying.
    The country doesn’t want anyone to deal with the big problems
    Then we will face the consequences of the big problems dealing with the country and not in the gradualist way we might have. As I said yesterday, I fear the risk of this has increased with this faux budget.
    What were your thoughts on Kemi and the Tories response. I was a fan and would be surprised if we didn't see Tory Labour crossover cemented over the coming weeks.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 8,468

    DavidL said:

    IanB2 said:

    Freedman's conclusion:

    Barring unexpected scandals or disasters Starmer and Reeves should now be safe until the May local elections, giving themselves time to shore up support. But the cost of choosing this [less bold] option is that, once again, the truly difficult decisions have been put off for later and little has been done to deal with the big problems facing the country.

    Yep, that's what @Sandpit and I were saying.
    The country doesn’t want anyone to deal with the big problems
    That’s incorrect: the country wants the problems dealt with but the electorate would like it doing in a way that causes them personally no pain.

    That is impossible. But it is the job of strong, good governments to communicate and take people on that journey with them. Labour have ceded any chance of being such a government, and we will all pay for it as a result.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 53,418

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Can anybody recommend any good books about Airey Neave please?

    I read a book by him once - 'Little Cyclone', about his escape through occupied France; essentially the storyline of Secret Army. It was a good story, but writing wasn't his forte.
    Carnyx said:

    Can anybody recommend any good books about Airey Neave please?

    THere's always his own writings about his escape from Colditz and his work in MI9 - They have hteir Exits and Saturday at MI9 but they prob don't cover the political era.

    Patrick Bishop's biog I seem to remember reading - it was acceptable enough but I didn't feel the need to keep it. There is another biog by Routledge which I have not read.
    Thanks.

    I recently fell down a social media rabbit hole and some Faragist type (very anti Ukraine/NATO) said that according to that prize idiot Enoch Powell, Airey Neave was assassinated by the Yanks to ensure a united Ireland would join NATO.

    I mean why they didn't assassinate Roy Mason is bugging me, what was so special about Lt. Col Neave?
    Neave was prominent in wanting to take a more aggressive, military approach to the IRA, beliving that he could 'win the war' by flooding the province with troops including the special forces. That's why he became a target.

    edit/ Given his various wartime experiences with underground movements, you could argue that his political view on that was surprisingly naive?
    We cannot really call it naive since it was never attempted.
    History offers plenty of parallel, or at least proximate, case studies from which the attentive might learn.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 63,211
    Sandpit said:

    Pub landlords not happy with Rachel. How does a small business find an extra five grand a month?

    https://x.com/laraincornwall/status/1993749174404444230

    Can we talk about the business rate value reassessment. Our pub: £18,500 to £73,500.

    Please explain @RachelReevesMP

    I’m numb.

    #hospitality

    That's completely crackers.

    And if pubs like that go under, it's fewer jobs and no business rates at all.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 36,149

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Can anybody recommend any good books about Airey Neave please?

    I read a book by him once - 'Little Cyclone', about his escape through occupied France; essentially the storyline of Secret Army. It was a good story, but writing wasn't his forte.
    Carnyx said:

    Can anybody recommend any good books about Airey Neave please?

    THere's always his own writings about his escape from Colditz and his work in MI9 - They have hteir Exits and Saturday at MI9 but they prob don't cover the political era.

    Patrick Bishop's biog I seem to remember reading - it was acceptable enough but I didn't feel the need to keep it. There is another biog by Routledge which I have not read.
    Thanks.

    I recently fell down a social media rabbit hole and some Faragist type (very anti Ukraine/NATO) said that according to that prize idiot Enoch Powell, Airey Neave was assassinated by the Yanks to ensure a united Ireland would join NATO.

    I mean why they didn't assassinate Roy Mason is bugging me, what was so special about Lt. Col Neave?
    Neave was prominent in wanting to take a more aggressive, military approach to the IRA, beliving that he could 'win the war' by flooding the province with troops including the special forces. That's why he became a target.

    edit/ Given his various wartime experiences with underground movements, you could argue that his political view on that was surprisingly naive?
    We cannot really call it naive since it was never attempted.
    No one has ever attempted using honesty boxes in supermarkets - does that mean we can't call it naive?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 21,184

    DavidL said:

    IanB2 said:

    Freedman's conclusion:

    Barring unexpected scandals or disasters Starmer and Reeves should now be safe until the May local elections, giving themselves time to shore up support. But the cost of choosing this [less bold] option is that, once again, the truly difficult decisions have been put off for later and little has been done to deal with the big problems facing the country.

    Yep, that's what @Sandpit and I were saying.
    The country doesn’t want anyone to deal with the big problems
    That’s incorrect: the country wants the problems dealt with but the electorate would like it doing in a way that causes them personally no pain.

    That is impossible. But it is the job of strong, good governments to communicate and take people on that journey with them. Labour have ceded any chance of being such a government, and we will all pay for it as a result.
    And the last government. And the next government.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 15,926
    edited 8:49AM
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    IanB2 said:

    Freedman's conclusion:

    Barring unexpected scandals or disasters Starmer and Reeves should now be safe until the May local elections, giving themselves time to shore up support. But the cost of choosing this [less bold] option is that, once again, the truly difficult decisions have been put off for later and little has been done to deal with the big problems facing the country.

    Yep, that's what @Sandpit and I were saying.
    The country doesn’t want anyone to deal with the big problems
    Then we will face the consequences of the big problems dealing with the country and not in the gradualist way we might have. As I said yesterday, I fear the risk of this has increased with this faux budget.
    DavidL is right. Contemplate this shocking but totally unsurprising bit from the budget, from the IFS commentary:

    Borrowing is set to be higher than previously forecast in 2025-26, 2026-27, 2027-28 and 2028-29, before falling below the previous forecast in 2029-30. This means that despite the significant consolidation, total borrowing is expected to be £57 billion more over the five years to 2029-30 than expected in March.



    https://ifs.org.uk/articles/autumn-budget-2025-initial-response#:~:text=Borrowing is set to be,30 than expected in March.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 46,742
    edited 8:50AM

    Sandpit said:

    Pub landlords not happy with Rachel. How does a small business find an extra five grand a month?

    https://x.com/laraincornwall/status/1993749174404444230

    Can we talk about the business rate value reassessment. Our pub: £18,500 to £73,500.

    Please explain @RachelReevesMP

    I’m numb.

    #hospitality

    That's completely crackers.

    And if pubs like that go under, it's fewer jobs and no business rates at all.
    Doesn't that simply reflect the overheated property market for second homes etc.? (Which doesn't do the locals any good.) It's not a Budgewt thing.

    https://www.gov.uk/introduction-to-business-rates/revaluation

    And relief for pubs etc:

    https://www.gov.uk/apply-for-business-rate-relief/retail-discount
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 12,670
    edited 8:50AM
    Sandpit said:

    Pub landlords not happy with Rachel. How does a small business find an extra five grand a month?

    https://x.com/laraincornwall/status/1993749174404444230

    Can we talk about the business rate value reassessment. Our pub: £18,500 to £73,500.

    Please explain @RachelReevesMP

    I’m numb.

    #hospitality

    That's weird. The revaluations happen fairly regularly (every 3 years?) so not sure why those particular pubs are having such massive increases. Something wrong with the formula?
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 17,220
    Carnyx said:

    Nigelb said:

    @Cyclefree had it right yesterday.

    Just scrap the spend on digital ID and put it into the Justice Dept.

    I don't think that ius the right way to think. The justice system should be sorted out as a high priority in its own right.

    What I am not quite sure about is how one clears the backlog quickly without needing to recruit lots more staff at all the choke points in the legal sausage machine. And ending with a reasonable balance of stuff which is still useful in the future rather than being 'wasted'. THe Nightingale Hospitals were never used - though that can't be called waste: it wasn't predictable at the time.

    The clear impression I get is of years, especially under Mr Osborne, of skimping and shutting down everywhere the HO could.

    For instance modernising jury selection to the legal equivalent of ERNIE* doesn't help with a shortage of criminal lawyers, so the pay rates for defence counsel need to be increased (baaad acc to the DT and DM, which is as we all know what SKS is most terrified of, surpassing all else).

    But if one worked through things ... eg nissen huts for courtrooms like Nightingale Hospitals ... or simply had a go at modernising the system permanently as one went along ...

    *Which does fail in the sense of seeing justice to be done in front of you, in contrast to paper lots in a bowl. But if people are happy with Premium Bonds ...?
    Approx 380 people were treated in Nightingale Hospitals, at a cost of a bit less than £1 million each.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,976

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    IanB2 said:

    Freedman's conclusion:

    Barring unexpected scandals or disasters Starmer and Reeves should now be safe until the May local elections, giving themselves time to shore up support. But the cost of choosing this [less bold] option is that, once again, the truly difficult decisions have been put off for later and little has been done to deal with the big problems facing the country.

    Yep, that's what @Sandpit and I were saying.
    The country doesn’t want anyone to deal with the big problems
    Then we will face the consequences of the big problems dealing with the country and not in the gradualist way we might have. As I said yesterday, I fear the risk of this has increased with this faux budget.
    What were your thoughts on Kemi and the Tories response. I was a fan and would be surprised if we didn't see Tory Labour crossover cemented over the coming weeks.
    From the bits I have seen it was a better than average LOTO speech. Responding to the budget with minimal notice is one of the toughest jobs of the LOTO ( I've never really understood why it is not the Shadow Chancellor) but in this case she had the advantage of the early leaking of a lot of information and she seemed to take advantage of that to give some structure to her speech. Whether this makes any difference really depends on whether she and Stride can start to create a coherent and cohesive alternative that actually addresses the issues and then sell that to the public. As @Gallowgate pointed out this morning that is a big ask. I was distinctly underwhelmed by Stride's Conference speech in that regard but hopefully that was a first draft and things might improve.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 21,184
    Sandpit said:

    Pub landlords not happy with Rachel. How does a small business find an extra five grand a month?

    https://x.com/laraincornwall/status/1993749174404444230

    Can we talk about the business rate value reassessment. Our pub: £18,500 to £73,500.

    Please explain @RachelReevesMP

    I’m numb.

    #hospitality

    This is where the complexity of the system and the tinkering around the edges causes all these problems. There should be no “relief”. If we are going to have business property rates it should be a simple formula that is applied equally. It is clearly too high at present.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 48,190
    edited 8:51AM
    Interesting poll. I 'somewhat' support. The current cut off is too low but 5 years is too high. It'll end up being 2 or 3 years I expect. As for who I'd want trying me it depends on whether I did it. If I did I'd want a jury. If I didn't, if I were as my barrister would say in a grave voice, "an innocent man falsely accused" I'd prefer a judge.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 17,220
    Sandpit said:

    So almost none of the leaked and trailed measures actually went into the budget.

    Everyone who was expecting an ‘exit tax’ and planning accordingly, will now carry on doing so in the expectation that will now happen next year instead.

    People who were wrong about something double down on their error, you say? Maybe there’s a life lesson for you there.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,976
    Sandpit said:

    Pub landlords not happy with Rachel. How does a small business find an extra five grand a month?

    https://x.com/laraincornwall/status/1993749174404444230

    Can we talk about the business rate value reassessment. Our pub: £18,500 to £73,500.

    Please explain @RachelReevesMP

    I’m numb.

    #hospitality

    That's probably a couple of staff getting the heave.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 53,418
    edited 8:53AM
    algarkirk said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    IanB2 said:

    Freedman's conclusion:

    Barring unexpected scandals or disasters Starmer and Reeves should now be safe until the May local elections, giving themselves time to shore up support. But the cost of choosing this [less bold] option is that, once again, the truly difficult decisions have been put off for later and little has been done to deal with the big problems facing the country.

    Yep, that's what @Sandpit and I were saying.
    The country doesn’t want anyone to deal with the big problems
    Then we will face the consequences of the big problems dealing with the country and not in the gradualist way we might have. As I said yesterday, I fear the risk of this has increased with this faux budget.
    DavidL is right. Contemplate this shocking but totally unsurprising bit from the budget, from the IFS commentary:

    Borrowing is set to be higher than previously forecast in 2025-26, 2026-27, 2027-28 and 2028-29, before falling below the previous forecast in 2029-30. This means that despite the significant consolidation, total borrowing is expected to be £57 billion more over the five years to 2029-30 than expected in March.



    https://ifs.org.uk/articles/autumn-budget-2025-initial-response#:~:text=Borrowing is set to be,30 than expected in March.
    One thing I remember from my years of local council budgeting is that getting the year three numbers to look good was always relatively easy, since no-one really scrutinised initiatives that were two or three years away, and some of the ways both councillors and finance officers might make them balance were simply constructed from tissue.

    Getting the immediately coming year's figures to balance was the difficult part.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 11,874

    The bigger question is will it get through the House of Lords unscathed

    It was not a manifesto commitment

    There's enough time for the Parliament Acts to kick in, or they could make it part of a money bill.

    Starmer could also go nuclear and ask rhe King to appoint 300 peers so the Lords reflect the membership of the Commons.
    The king wouldn’t do that without a general election first (and the lords would cave in that circumstance)
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 17,220

    Sandpit said:

    So almost none of the leaked and trailed measures actually went into the budget.

    Everyone who was expecting an ‘exit tax’ and planning accordingly, will now carry on doing so in the expectation that will now happen next year instead.

    Yeah, I saw at work only 8% of the Telegraph's 'exclusives' made it into the budget.
    But is that because the Telegraph made it up, or because it was leaked as a flag flying exercise?
    Why would a Labour Govt leak to the Telegraph?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 83,810
    MattW said:

    FPT:

    Roger said:

    Sky news reporting not good for Reeves

    67 billion rises in taxes in 18 months

    Newsnight good for Reeves and more important the market likes it (according toi Newsnight)

    So if you want optimism change channels!
    The market likes it because she has created 22 billion headroom by taxing everything and anything

    She has chosen high taxes and high spending especially on benefits when she should have reduced spending and taxes

    Anyway let's see where it all settles in public opinion

    I'm still on she has I think taxed a lot of the wrong tings, and missed other important things out ... too much of it is half-baked and tactical.

    I think they have now missed the opportunity to be a reforming Government, at least without a second term.
    Agreed; as I noted on the last thread, this budget is basically an irrelevance in the greater scheme of things (unless you count the missed opportunity to do something significant).

    There's plenty of stuff they could do of far greater significance, outside of the budget process.

    *Cough* planning and regulatory reform.

    But that would also require a degree of bold radicalism.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,976
    algarkirk said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    IanB2 said:

    Freedman's conclusion:

    Barring unexpected scandals or disasters Starmer and Reeves should now be safe until the May local elections, giving themselves time to shore up support. But the cost of choosing this [less bold] option is that, once again, the truly difficult decisions have been put off for later and little has been done to deal with the big problems facing the country.

    Yep, that's what @Sandpit and I were saying.
    The country doesn’t want anyone to deal with the big problems
    Then we will face the consequences of the big problems dealing with the country and not in the gradualist way we might have. As I said yesterday, I fear the risk of this has increased with this faux budget.
    DavidL is right. Contemplate this shocking but totally unsurprising bit from the budget, from the IFS commentary:

    Borrowing is set to be higher than previously forecast in 2025-26, 2026-27, 2027-28 and 2028-29, before falling below the previous forecast in 2029-30. This means that despite the significant consolidation, total borrowing is expected to be £57 billion more over the five years to 2029-30 than expected in March.



    https://ifs.org.uk/articles/autumn-budget-2025-initial-response#:~:text=Borrowing is set to be,30 than expected in March.
    Surely you could have stopped there after the first sentence!

    Thanks for the link.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,883
    IanB2 said:

    Dopermean said:

    That first chart is bloody depressing. What the hell have we become as a country?

    People really don't want to do jury service.
    Yep, it's boring and aggravating.
    Unless you have a public-spirited employer you'll be out of pocket, you stand a small chance of getting a long case. It's a lot of "waiting to do nothing" and being to come back tomorrow
    And the whole system runs without any regard whatsoever as to the interests or convenience of jury members, so you spend two weeks being messed about, told nothing and treated like s**t. Of course, it would be a nonsense to organise our justice system around the jury members, but nevertheless it isn't much fun being the meat in someone else's machine.
    My (retired) wife is a regular volunteer in court witness support (usually it's the prosecution witnesses who need the support). As you say, there's an awful lot of hanging about as one or another detail is remedied. On the other hand, witnesses do seem enormously appreciative of the support, and it gives an insight into a side of Britain that we simply don't encounter in our retired middle-class Oxfordshire village - I'm fascinated by hearing about the people she encounters, who are markedly more deprived and desperate than almost anyone who I encountered as an MP for 13 years.

    I'm not especially a fan of the jury system for relatively minor offences, and the long delays seem to me a more serious problem. But it does create an insight into crime which many of us simply don't have.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 11,874
    Carnyx said:

    Nigelb said:

    @Cyclefree had it right yesterday.

    Just scrap the spend on digital ID and put it into the Justice Dept.

    I don't think that ius the right way to think. The justice system should be sorted out as a high priority in its own right.

    What I am not quite sure about is how one clears the backlog quickly without needing to recruit lots more staff at all the choke points in the legal sausage machine. And ending with a reasonable balance of stuff which is still useful in the future rather than being 'wasted'. THe Nightingale Hospitals were never used - though that can't be called waste: it wasn't predictable at the time.

    The clear impression I get is of years, especially under Mr Osborne, of skimping and shutting down everywhere the HO could.

    For instance modernising jury selection to the legal equivalent of ERNIE* doesn't help with a shortage of criminal lawyers, so the pay rates for defence counsel need to be increased (baaad acc to the DT and DM, which is as we all know what SKS is most terrified of, surpassing all else).

    But if one worked through things ... eg nissen huts for courtrooms like Nightingale Hospitals ... or simply had a go at modernising the system permanently as one went along ...

    *Which does fail in the sense of seeing justice to be done in front of you, in contrast to paper lots in a bowl. But if people are happy with Premium Bonds ...?
    It’s about identifying the bottlenecks point by point (as you do in manufacturing) and addressing them one by one. It takes time.

    One point in case: sentencing is often delayed because pre-sentencing reports are not completed in time. Apply additional resource to solving that. It may then result in sentencing being delayed because of X or Y. Then focus on that.

    The problem with many politicians (and the media/voters) is they only care about an arbitrary goal - they don’t think about continuous improvement
  • RogerRoger Posts: 21,563

    Sandpit said:

    Pub landlords not happy with Rachel. How does a small business find an extra five grand a month?

    https://x.com/laraincornwall/status/1993749174404444230

    Can we talk about the business rate value reassessment. Our pub: £18,500 to £73,500.

    Please explain @RachelReevesMP

    I’m numb.

    #hospitality

    That's completely crackers.

    And if pubs like that go under, it's fewer jobs and no business rates at all.
    Crackers as will be the story. Or if it isn't iut'll have nothing to do with the budget.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 124,997
    Eabhal said:

    Sandpit said:

    Pub landlords not happy with Rachel. How does a small business find an extra five grand a month?

    https://x.com/laraincornwall/status/1993749174404444230

    Can we talk about the business rate value reassessment. Our pub: £18,500 to £73,500.

    Please explain @RachelReevesMP

    I’m numb.

    #hospitality

    That's weird. The revaluations happen fairly regularly (every 3 years?) so not sure why those particular pubs are having such massive increases. Something wrong with the formula?
    Some of the replies though (mostly blue tick)

    They really don't want White Brits to enjoy anything in life.

    https://x.com/snurfliquor/status/1993958490046648758?s=61&t=c6bcp0cjChLfQN5Tc8A_6g

    Think about what a pub is and provides. Communists like Rachel hate that. Pubs allow people to get together to talk share stories etc. Be a community. I have said it before but hospitality should bar politicians make them unwelcome politely of course they work against you.

    https://x.com/ataylorfpga/status/1993951172940714335?s=61&t=c6bcp0cjChLfQN5Tc8A_6g
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 33,951

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    IanB2 said:

    Freedman's conclusion:

    Barring unexpected scandals or disasters Starmer and Reeves should now be safe until the May local elections, giving themselves time to shore up support. But the cost of choosing this [less bold] option is that, once again, the truly difficult decisions have been put off for later and little has been done to deal with the big problems facing the country.

    Yep, that's what @Sandpit and I were saying.
    The country doesn’t want anyone to deal with the big problems
    Then we will face the consequences of the big problems dealing with the country and not in the gradualist way we might have. As I said yesterday, I fear the risk of this has increased with this faux budget.
    What were your thoughts on Kemi and the Tories response. I was a fan and would be surprised if we didn't see Tory Labour crossover cemented over the coming weeks.
    Thoughts and prayers for Robert Jenrick.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 15,926
    Budget. A couple of comments.

    The day after this feels like a very old Labour budget, but lacking the old Labour hope. Three stand outs: Nothing tough on benefits class, including on that smaller group the benefits junkies; nothing much tough on pensioners (though slightly raised tax on savings). But no comfort for workers apart from much poorer ones with loads of children (a group I am on the side of!).

    Borrowing: dire
    Growth plan: dire
    Vision: zero
    Back ending: loads - so much that it feels like a government expecting to hand over the poisoned chalice by 2028/9.

    Missed: the chance (which will not come again to this government) of a truly reforming budget. Gladstone, Howe, Clarke have not been toppled.

    Conclusion: Social democracy done badly, unsteady as she goes.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 17,356
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    IanB2 said:

    Freedman's conclusion:

    Barring unexpected scandals or disasters Starmer and Reeves should now be safe until the May local elections, giving themselves time to shore up support. But the cost of choosing this [less bold] option is that, once again, the truly difficult decisions have been put off for later and little has been done to deal with the big problems facing the country.

    Yep, that's what @Sandpit and I were saying.
    The country doesn’t want anyone to deal with the big problems
    Then we will face the consequences of the big problems dealing with the country and not in the gradualist way we might have. As I said yesterday, I fear the risk of this has increased with this faux budget.
    What were your thoughts on Kemi and the Tories response. I was a fan and would be surprised if we didn't see Tory Labour crossover cemented over the coming weeks.
    From the bits I have seen it was a better than average LOTO speech. Responding to the budget with minimal notice is one of the toughest jobs of the LOTO ( I've never really understood why it is not the Shadow Chancellor) but in this case she had the advantage of the early leaking of a lot of information and she seemed to take advantage of that to give some structure to her speech. Whether this makes any difference really depends on whether she and Stride can start to create a coherent and cohesive alternative that actually addresses the issues and then sell that to the public. As @Gallowgate pointed out this morning that is a big ask. I was distinctly underwhelmed by Stride's Conference speech in that regard but hopefully that was a first draft and things might improve.
    I listened to the first ten minutes or so and to be honest it's the longest I've ever listened to Badenoch speaking. It was certainly a combative speech but I was surprised at how nasty and personal it was. Is this her usual style? It was a turn off for me but maybe Tories will like it, they seem to be more into this kind of thing. She does risk coming across as what the young people call a "pick me" - a woman who seeks male approval by denigrating other women.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 89,117
    edited 9:07AM
    Eabhal said:

    Sandpit said:

    Pub landlords not happy with Rachel. How does a small business find an extra five grand a month?

    https://x.com/laraincornwall/status/1993749174404444230

    Can we talk about the business rate value reassessment. Our pub: £18,500 to £73,500.

    Please explain @RachelReevesMP

    I’m numb.

    #hospitality

    That's weird. The revaluations happen fairly regularly (every 3 years?) so not sure why those particular pubs are having such massive increases. Something wrong with the formula?
    Rachel introduced a new surcharge on "big business" to reduce cost on "small business", but "big business" is those in buildings with a rateable value of more than £500,000 i.e. everybody but a hole in the wall operation. Supermarkets are getting particularly shafted on this, which means we are all going to pay more. But pubs are on the whole big buildings, and particularly nice ones in Cornwall (which is where the twitter account is I believe), the building is going to be worth a load more than £500k.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 15,926
    DavidL said:

    algarkirk said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    IanB2 said:

    Freedman's conclusion:

    Barring unexpected scandals or disasters Starmer and Reeves should now be safe until the May local elections, giving themselves time to shore up support. But the cost of choosing this [less bold] option is that, once again, the truly difficult decisions have been put off for later and little has been done to deal with the big problems facing the country.

    Yep, that's what @Sandpit and I were saying.
    The country doesn’t want anyone to deal with the big problems
    Then we will face the consequences of the big problems dealing with the country and not in the gradualist way we might have. As I said yesterday, I fear the risk of this has increased with this faux budget.
    DavidL is right. Contemplate this shocking but totally unsurprising bit from the budget, from the IFS commentary:

    Borrowing is set to be higher than previously forecast in 2025-26, 2026-27, 2027-28 and 2028-29, before falling below the previous forecast in 2029-30. This means that despite the significant consolidation, total borrowing is expected to be £57 billion more over the five years to 2029-30 than expected in March.



    https://ifs.org.uk/articles/autumn-budget-2025-initial-response#:~:text=Borrowing is set to be,30 than expected in March.
    Surely you could have stopped there after the first sentence!

    Thanks for the link.
    I'll do that when your closing speech in full is: 'The defendant is guilty/innocent. Delete as appropriate'.

    (The IFS is incredibly useful as a resource, especially for those who can't access the FT).
  • PJHPJH Posts: 976

    Carnyx said:

    Nigelb said:

    @Cyclefree had it right yesterday.

    Just scrap the spend on digital ID and put it into the Justice Dept.

    I don't think that ius the right way to think. The justice system should be sorted out as a high priority in its own right.

    What I am not quite sure about is how one clears the backlog quickly without needing to recruit lots more staff at all the choke points in the legal sausage machine. And ending with a reasonable balance of stuff which is still useful in the future rather than being 'wasted'. THe Nightingale Hospitals were never used - though that can't be called waste: it wasn't predictable at the time.

    The clear impression I get is of years, especially under Mr Osborne, of skimping and shutting down everywhere the HO could.

    For instance modernising jury selection to the legal equivalent of ERNIE* doesn't help with a shortage of criminal lawyers, so the pay rates for defence counsel need to be increased (baaad acc to the DT and DM, which is as we all know what SKS is most terrified of, surpassing all else).

    But if one worked through things ... eg nissen huts for courtrooms like Nightingale Hospitals ... or simply had a go at modernising the system permanently as one went along ...

    *Which does fail in the sense of seeing justice to be done in front of you, in contrast to paper lots in a bowl. But if people are happy with Premium Bonds ...?
    It’s about identifying the bottlenecks point by point (as you do in manufacturing) and addressing them one by one. It takes time.

    One point in case: sentencing is often delayed because pre-sentencing reports are not completed in time. Apply additional resource to solving that. It may then result in sentencing being delayed because of X or Y. Then focus on that.

    The problem with many politicians (and the media/voters) is they only care about an arbitrary goal - they don’t think about continuous improvement
    It's the same in any line of business. Many in management are only ever looking for the silver bullet that brings overnight success; few of them are interested in the attention to detail and hard slog needed to bring about slow but steady improvement one thing at a time. Not least because the benefits will happen on someone else's watch.

    I see this disconnect often in IT due to the great personality gap between most managers and most techies but I'm sure it's the same in many other industries too.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 11,874
    Carnyx said:

    Can anybody recommend any good books about Airey Neave please?

    THere's always his own writings about his escape from Colditz and his work in MI9 - They have hteir Exits and Saturday at MI9 but they prob don't cover the political era.

    Patrick Bishop's biog I seem to remember reading - it was acceptable enough but I didn't feel the need to keep it. There is another biog by Routledge which I have not read.
    Is MI9 intelligence for dyslexics?
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 18,521

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    IanB2 said:

    Freedman's conclusion:

    Barring unexpected scandals or disasters Starmer and Reeves should now be safe until the May local elections, giving themselves time to shore up support. But the cost of choosing this [less bold] option is that, once again, the truly difficult decisions have been put off for later and little has been done to deal with the big problems facing the country.

    Yep, that's what @Sandpit and I were saying.
    The country doesn’t want anyone to deal with the big problems
    Then we will face the consequences of the big problems dealing with the country and not in the gradualist way we might have. As I said yesterday, I fear the risk of this has increased with this faux budget.
    What were your thoughts on Kemi and the Tories response. I was a fan and would be surprised if we didn't see Tory Labour crossover cemented over the coming weeks.
    From the bits I have seen it was a better than average LOTO speech. Responding to the budget with minimal notice is one of the toughest jobs of the LOTO ( I've never really understood why it is not the Shadow Chancellor) but in this case she had the advantage of the early leaking of a lot of information and she seemed to take advantage of that to give some structure to her speech. Whether this makes any difference really depends on whether she and Stride can start to create a coherent and cohesive alternative that actually addresses the issues and then sell that to the public. As @Gallowgate pointed out this morning that is a big ask. I was distinctly underwhelmed by Stride's Conference speech in that regard but hopefully that was a first draft and things might improve.
    I listened to the first ten minutes or so and to be honest it's the longest I've ever listened to Badenoch speaking. It was certainly a combative speech but I was surprised at how nasty and personal it was. Is this her usual style? It was a turn off for me but maybe Tories will like it, they seem to be more into this kind of thing. She does risk coming across as what the young people call a "pick me" - a woman who seeks male approval by denigrating other women.
    It is her usual style but she's not had her self confidence recently. Badenoch is an extraordinarily aggressive politician in an era when other politicians aren't. I think some people find the energy refreshing while others don't much appreciate being bludgeoned to death.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 53,418

    IanB2 said:

    Dopermean said:

    That first chart is bloody depressing. What the hell have we become as a country?

    People really don't want to do jury service.
    Yep, it's boring and aggravating.
    Unless you have a public-spirited employer you'll be out of pocket, you stand a small chance of getting a long case. It's a lot of "waiting to do nothing" and being to come back tomorrow
    And the whole system runs without any regard whatsoever as to the interests or convenience of jury members, so you spend two weeks being messed about, told nothing and treated like s**t. Of course, it would be a nonsense to organise our justice system around the jury members, but nevertheless it isn't much fun being the meat in someone else's machine.
    My (retired) wife is a regular volunteer in court witness support (usually it's the prosecution witnesses who need the support). As you say, there's an awful lot of hanging about as one or another detail is remedied. On the other hand, witnesses do seem enormously appreciative of the support, and it gives an insight into a side of Britain that we simply don't encounter in our retired middle-class Oxfordshire village - I'm fascinated by hearing about the people she encounters, who are markedly more deprived and desperate than almost anyone who I encountered as an MP for 13 years.

    I'm not especially a fan of the jury system for relatively minor offences, and the long delays seem to me a more serious problem. But it does create an insight into crime which many of us simply don't have.
    I was once in Barts for a week of tests at scheduled intervals, and during the hours in between used to go over the road to the Old Bailey and sit in on some trials. That was an insight into a rarified world but one that is not unfamiliar because of news stories and television drama. As a councillor I also spent a day at Walthamstow Magistrates Court, and that was an insight into a world that passes many of us by, as you say.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 11,874

    biggles said:

    Heh. On the BBC, the Chancellor states that, as I assumed, no one has done any thinking on how an EV mileage charge will work. It’s for 2028 so they will consult and it won’t happen. Another measure purely for the spreadsheet. There’s a lot of those…

    I've read the document. Its JOYOUS. Fill in a webform to say how many miles. Pay per month if you like. A mandatory annual inspection at a VOSA approved facility paid for by the government. Balancing payment or credits. Lots and lots and lots of bureaucracy. They're trying to say "ah we'll use the existing framework" to make it cheaper, but it won't be.

    Then we have the Irish question. No change to the plan for norniron even though people go abroad a lot. No exemption for driving abroad. Apparently you will pay per mile abroad because you would if it was fuel duty - but you don't pay duty on fuel bought outside the UK. Being charged a tax on something not done in the UK with no tax due to the UK on any other vehicle? Will be a fun court case.

    Metrics on my improv reaction video yesterday have been off the scale. I'm going to pick the details apart in another video next week. Will have less traffic but its still free money...
    I’ve never understood why they don’t adopt the Swiss system or requiring every car or truck to have a windshield sticker to drive in GB. I. Sure the tourist industry would whine, while the additional cost would be (potentially) passed on by logistics providers to businesses but neither of those are bad outcomes

  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 33,284

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    IanB2 said:

    Freedman's conclusion:

    Barring unexpected scandals or disasters Starmer and Reeves should now be safe until the May local elections, giving themselves time to shore up support. But the cost of choosing this [less bold] option is that, once again, the truly difficult decisions have been put off for later and little has been done to deal with the big problems facing the country.

    Yep, that's what @Sandpit and I were saying.
    The country doesn’t want anyone to deal with the big problems
    Then we will face the consequences of the big problems dealing with the country and not in the gradualist way we might have. As I said yesterday, I fear the risk of this has increased with this faux budget.
    What were your thoughts on Kemi and the Tories response. I was a fan and would be surprised if we didn't see Tory Labour crossover cemented over the coming weeks.
    From the bits I have seen it was a better than average LOTO speech. Responding to the budget with minimal notice is one of the toughest jobs of the LOTO ( I've never really understood why it is not the Shadow Chancellor) but in this case she had the advantage of the early leaking of a lot of information and she seemed to take advantage of that to give some structure to her speech. Whether this makes any difference really depends on whether she and Stride can start to create a coherent and cohesive alternative that actually addresses the issues and then sell that to the public. As @Gallowgate pointed out this morning that is a big ask. I was distinctly underwhelmed by Stride's Conference speech in that regard but hopefully that was a first draft and things might improve.
    I listened to the first ten minutes or so and to be honest it's the longest I've ever listened to Badenoch speaking. It was certainly a combative speech but I was surprised at how nasty and personal it was. Is this her usual style? It was a turn off for me but maybe Tories will like it, they seem to be more into this kind of thing. She does risk coming across as what the young people call a "pick me" - a woman who seeks male approval by denigrating other women.
    Would you have liked Kemi to be less combative, given that she was dealing with a woman and all?
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 15,926

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Can anybody recommend any good books about Airey Neave please?

    I read a book by him once - 'Little Cyclone', about his escape through occupied France; essentially the storyline of Secret Army. It was a good story, but writing wasn't his forte.
    Carnyx said:

    Can anybody recommend any good books about Airey Neave please?

    THere's always his own writings about his escape from Colditz and his work in MI9 - They have hteir Exits and Saturday at MI9 but they prob don't cover the political era.

    Patrick Bishop's biog I seem to remember reading - it was acceptable enough but I didn't feel the need to keep it. There is another biog by Routledge which I have not read.
    Thanks.

    I recently fell down a social media rabbit hole and some Faragist type (very anti Ukraine/NATO) said that according to that prize idiot Enoch Powell, Airey Neave was assassinated by the Yanks to ensure a united Ireland would join NATO.

    I mean why they didn't assassinate Roy Mason is bugging me, what was so special about Lt. Col Neave?
    Neave was prominent in wanting to take a more aggressive, military approach to the IRA, beliving that he could 'win the war' by flooding the province with troops including the special forces. That's why he became a target.

    edit/ Given his various wartime experiences with underground movements, you could argue that his political view on that was surprisingly naive?
    We cannot really call it naive since it was never attempted.
    No one has ever attempted using honesty boxes in supermarkets - does that mean we can't call it naive?
    The very agreeable little shop, now replaced by an equally agreeable restaurant/cafe, at Lochbuie ran entirely on an honesty box. The only place I know where this could be done with venison.

    Still some honesty boxes in north Cumberland at the end of farm tracks and smallholdings.

  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 17,356
    algarkirk said:

    Budget. A couple of comments.

    The day after this feels like a very old Labour budget, but lacking the old Labour hope. Three stand outs: Nothing tough on benefits class, including on that smaller group the benefits junkies; nothing much tough on pensioners (though slightly raised tax on savings). But no comfort for workers apart from much poorer ones with loads of children (a group I am on the side of!).

    Borrowing: dire
    Growth plan: dire
    Vision: zero
    Back ending: loads - so much that it feels like a government expecting to hand over the poisoned chalice by 2028/9.

    Missed: the chance (which will not come again to this government) of a truly reforming budget. Gladstone, Howe, Clarke have not been toppled.

    Conclusion: Social democracy done badly, unsteady as she goes.

    I think this in the region of being fair albeit perhaps a bit too much at the critical end. Agreed the adjustment is somewhat backloaded, but I'd note that is not untypical. Lower paid workers get a minimum wage increase and workers are also getting substantially upgraded rights at work separately. On growth we are getting some decent capital spending with commitment to specific projects, helped by the prior decision to shift the fiscal rule focus to current spending. The international context is also important - the UK is making the biggest fiscal consolidation effort in the G7 - going into Covid our borrowing was middle of the pack, coming out we were among the worst and if these fiscal plans pan out we should be one of the strongest performers in a few years. This is why the bond markets have reacted well.
    I totally agree about the absence of real reform though. I'd like to see something much bolder but we won't get that from Starmer and Reeves.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 21,563
    edited 9:12AM
    I'd do away with Jury trials. Most European countries don't use this system. It seems very arcane. The criminal justice system clearly needs an overhaul but the place to start is with sentencing. We've been inured to these insanely long sentences. Imagining five years ahead will seem like a lifetime to a twenty year old and ten years and beyond will feel ike forever.

    Scale it all down. As for Juries. Why would twelve random people with their own prejudices be better than say three who are trained and who could be regularly assessed?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 30,980
    edited 9:16AM

    Alistair Heath has taken it well:

    "Her new [property] tax – a toxic mix of two hated levies, council tax and IHT – is equivalent to detonating a time bomb under Middle England."

    "Socialism is back, and the property-owning democracy is out. Labour has declared war on social mobility, on petit bourgeois values, on the consumer society and on conservative Britain."

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/11/26/britain-now-socialist-country-what-reeves-budget-means/

    What's changed with IHT?

    I was hoping that Osborne's Jack-in-a-Box £175k transferrable allowance would go, amongst other things. But no dice.

    But to do it properly would require changes to the Gift regime, especially the gifts out of "not required" income being tax free. That is a charter for useless loafing offspring of very wealthy people *.

    * See Charlie Gilmour.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,808

    Eabhal said:

    Sandpit said:

    Pub landlords not happy with Rachel. How does a small business find an extra five grand a month?

    https://x.com/laraincornwall/status/1993749174404444230

    Can we talk about the business rate value reassessment. Our pub: £18,500 to £73,500.

    Please explain @RachelReevesMP

    I’m numb.

    #hospitality

    That's weird. The revaluations happen fairly regularly (every 3 years?) so not sure why those particular pubs are having such massive increases. Something wrong with the formula?
    Rachel introduced a new surcharge on "big business" to reduce cost on "small business", but "big business" is those in buildings with a rateable value of more than £500,000 i.e. everybody but a hole in the wall operation. Supermarkets are getting particularly shafted on this, which means we are all going to pay more. But pubs are on the whole big buildings, and particularly nice ones in Cornwall (which is where the twitter account is I believe), the building is going to be worth a load more than £500k.
    Not in rateable value. RV is not market value.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,942

    My sympathy for reducing our use of jury trials stems largely from the experience of four weeks spent mostly hanging around in jury rooms, interspersed with small periods of time actually sitting on trials. I see my suggestions for cutting down on some of the inefficiency was shot down by Cyclefree and other great and good posters on this august site, so maybe I should can it. I'm still not sure though why you need twelve jurors in all cases. How did we alight on that number? Why wouldn't ten or six work?

    From my experience you usually get three or four jurors who say nothing and just vote with the crowd.

    Smaller numbers anyone?

    Twelve comes from at least Henry II's day.

    I'm guessing there's a religious angle...twelve apostles maybe?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 58,802

    Nigelb said:

    @Cyclefree had it right yesterday.

    Just scrap the spend on digital ID and put it into the Justice Dept.

    But abolishing trial by jury and inflicting compulsory ID scratches Starmer's authoritarian itch.
    I just want to get this right -

    1) not spending £700 million on saving a handful of salmon risks violating human rights and international law.
    2) using automated facial recognition, which has an extensive history of bias and abuse is awesome.
    3) trying to get rid of end to end encryption online is awesome. It’s used to protect people in horrible regimes around the world - aside from protecting everything we do.
    4) removing the right to jury trial for most offences is no problem. Just admin

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