A 28% return in just over a month? – politicalbetting.com
A 28% return in just over a month? – politicalbetting.com
Will Rachel Reeves follow Kemi Badenoch's advice and resign? #Budget2026 Here's how we bet on whether she'll be replaced as Chancellor this year:No – 2/7 (78% chance)Yes – 5/2 (28% chance)https://t.co/xLPp01UmMB https://t.co/N1MJ7EZzF4
1
Comments
Same again next year then...
What happens in 2026 will depend much on May 26
I hunted thro Amazon and found what I wanted with next day delivery.. by 1pm that's how you do it. Businesses are there to serve the customer and not the other way round.
Incidentally The Range said it was in stock so my wife went there but they were out of stock awaiting delivery. Hopeless
Her risk isn't from Badenoch saying what she was bound to say, or indeed from Labour MPs (who she's thrown a bone to with the two child cap) but from a disastrous market reaction. Famous last words, and these things don't aways happen immediately, but the markets don't seem to have reacted particularly badly at this point.
On the other, customers will happily gouge their own eyes out for 50p off the price. Otherwise, Ryanair wouldn't exist.
Websites sorting by price and the blandishments of Martin Lewis don't help, but we've collectively brought this on ourselves. (And our time could be spent much more productively, I'm sure.)
Don;t start taking talking heads or I am in trouble
I thought it poor, politically and economically, but well delivered.
There are far worse nasties in the budget than the semantics around raising taxes on "working people".
Unionised people employed by the state, I would have thought.
I suppose the biggest source of funds will be from those finding somewhere for their tax free pension pot if it isn't all being blown on cruises.
(Or indeed on PB...)
Most budgets don’t create a big bang with the markets (Kwarteng being a notable exception) because so long as one can show one’s workings and make the sums add up somehow (again, see the problem with Kwarteng’s) then the market will broadly accept it. The fallout and lack of confidence, if there is any, is typically slow burn.
It’s probably been a good day for Reeves in the sense that I think she’s probably bought herself and Starmer time (which a lot of the budget was actually about). I really don’t see it is a budget that will shift Labour fortunes - in fact I think it’s going to poll terribly with the public.
It may help move the economy front and centre as we move into early 2026 - which might inadvertently hurt Reform a little.
The one thing about the Budget being leaked ahead of time was it made life easier for Kemi Badenoch who could write her speech in advance rather than, as previous LOTOs have had to, write it as the Chancellor speaks.
I haven't heard or read her response but I can probably guess the content.
As I suspected this morning, nothing too surprising or dramatic in today's Budget speech. The horse racing industry is happy though the betting industry is moaning as usual.
I welcome the reform to Council Tax charges for more valuable properties though again it's all a bit timid - I'd have gone for properties over £1 million.
The Cash ISA changes, agian well trailed, seem to have touched a nerve or two but most won't have the money to save £20k (or even £12k).
The clue is in why Farage backed lifting the cap . Reform poll well with those on lower incomes and who are more likely to be on Universal Credit .
The Conservative MP for Romford says he can see Reform UK winning his seat in the next general election.
Andrew Rosindell, who has represented the east London constituency since 2001, said he currently thinks “my seat would almost certainly go to Reform”.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/east-london-tory-mp-says-reform-could-win-his-seat-at-next-election/ar-AA1RdupR?ocid=socialshare
(Mathematically, he's probably right- Rozzer was about 1500 ahead of Labour and 5000 ahead of Reform in 2024. He's up for serving under PM Farage, because of course he is.)
The people putting 2k into their ISA each year at that age need to think about what to invest in.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/health/37422547/super-fungus-attacks-groin-bum-spreading-uk/
As it is a slow news day, here is a medical warning from the Sun.
What this measure will mean is that hybrids with large batteries and "range extender" level engines are going to be very attractive compared to an identical EV without the range extender...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jac-X0ci4BI
Chancellors are either complicators or simplifiers. The simplifiers - like Howe or Lawson or Clarke - are much better than the complicators.
"Nothing like a bit of girl on girl!"
(I'd be totally up for simplifications. Getting rid of all those damnfool spikes by reducing thresholds or increasing rates would be a good thing. But politically toxic. Which is why Darling and Osborne did what they did in the first place.
And whilst I would have voted for a Doctor's Mandate in 2024, I totally get why it wasn't on offer. Given how late Nigel (F not L) upended the whole game by joining it, Labour's cowardice was understandable, if cowardly.)
Kemi Badenoch - like Starmer - suffers from the 'you had your chance - now noone is listening' issue. I can't comment on her response to the budget as I haven't noticed it. Even Starmer has the advantage of being PM so you have to take some notice. What's the point of Ms Badenoch - she's hardly doing to Starmer what Starmer did to Johnson and Truss is she. Andy Burnham is doing a better job as Leader of the Opposition!
At least C2W wasn't binned. Phew.
Tragically, it seems they were actually only a week away from taking this course by increasing income tax, with some kind of NI reduction as an offset.
I can’t remember the last time I got a personal allowance, it may have been as long ago as the early 2000s, so this doesn’t directly affect me ( there is of course an indirect effect in that an ever increasing proportion of my income will be subject to the highest rate of tax) but there is no doubt that it is those who find themselves dragged into higher rates for the first time who are hurt the most. A 2p increase in IT would have hurt people like me a bit more and those who were in the £40k range somewhat less. But hell, politics is more important.
It is just a wheeze to make the spreadsheet compliant.
So for higher rate tax payers the marginal Employee NI rate is 2%. The Employer one is 15%.
So if you contribute £7k pa to your pension, you pay an extra £100 pa in tax. And your Employer pays an extra £750.
I think it's been poorly explained and people are overestimating how little this hits them in direct taxation.
Reeves’s budget from hell proves the technocrats have failed us
Vapid, visionless politicians, guided by so-called experts, have brought the nation to ruin."
https://www.spiked-online.com
Have you applied the new 25% gambling tax?
Personally I would ban any and all governmental changes on 1 April, for obvious reasons.
"Following re-costings conducted by HMRC, and certified by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), the reforms to the taxation of non-domiciled individuals implemented in April are now expected to raise £39.5 billion across the scorecard, and VAT on private school fees is expected to raise an average of £40 million extra per year."
£40 million a year. Let that sink in a minute. Just *£40 million*. It was originally supposeed to be £1.75bn extra.
Bet it's actually negative in reality. Labour has closed independent schools, reduced the size of the education sector, and increased the burden on the public purse - all at the same time.
But as long as the Will Of The People is dead set against increases in headline tax rates, we will keep getting this sort of stuff.
See you next year.
As for joining the Faragistes, I assume that there is enough in the Whips' Black Book to keep him in line. And there is another ex-Conservtive ahead of him in the queue to be Romford's Reform MP;
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cqjexze7444o
I hadn't realised that the mother in the case of the parents arrested for 'harassing' a school is Jewish. Coincidence? Did her organising a Holocaust Memorial Day event cause the school undue stress?
https://www.thejc.com/news/uk/revealed-police-quizzed-wrongfully-arrested-jewish-mother-over-her-faith-gvhymd83
I know the budget is showtime but in her position if she wants to be taken seriously on one of the few occasions people might notice her she'd surely do better if she didn't sound like she was in a Christmas pantomime
revised up slightly by an average of £40 million per year, driven by the updated forecast for
average earnings that is used to project fee growth."
And your silly cliche summarises the problem behind the policy.
The key thing is to fess up and concede the mistake immediately. In your case, that the tax revenues are up £40 million compared with the prior forecast - not reduced by 98% as you've suggested.
(You're right about the cliche, it does appear that they have moved on from XC90s in the main).