Present Keirs are less than horrible imaginings – politicalbetting.com
Present Keirs are less than horrible imaginings – politicalbetting.com
? / With less than six months until the Scottish Parliament election, the SNP are the party Scots are most likely to consider voting forSNP: 37% would considerGreens: 27%Lib Dems: 26%Labour: 23%Reform UK: 21%Conservatives: 15%'Your Party': 15%Alba: 8%yougov.co.uk/politics/art…
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The Labour brand is shot. Mostly in the feet, but also in the back.
Sunday, 7am. Another car boot sale suspected of selling stolen tools.
This time, the sellers packed up and scarpered as soon as they saw us.
I’ll stop when tradesmen are no longer losing their livelihoods.
https://x.com/robertjenrick/status/1990678236397707500?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2024/04/25/by-the-pricking-of-my-thumbs-something-wicked-this-way-comes/
https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2024/04/30/i-have-bought-golden-opinions-from-all-sorts-of-people/
https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2024/04/29/what-bloody-man-is-that-stands-scotland-where-it-did/
https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2024/04/28/all-the-perfumes-of-arabia-will-not-sweeten-this-little-hand/
https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2024/04/25/shall-he-dwindle-peak-and-pine/
https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2024/05/01/i-have-no-spur-to-prick-the-sides-of-my-intent-but-only-vaulting-ambition/
https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2024/05/02/letting-i-dare-not-wait-upon-i-wouldlike-the-poor-cat-i-the-adage/
Everything has its price!
Starmer is 5/2 to lead Labour at the next GE, 1/3 not to. I get the feeling backing things to stay the same at odds against is probably a decent strategy in political betting, but could be wrong here I suppose
F1: Mercedes continue to fall, down to 4.5 for Russell and 7.5 for Antonelli to win the race. They're 3.5 and 7.5 for qualifying, and if Russell ends up on pole should be hedgeable.
Rain could make things peculiar. Race especially could be a mess as grip's already very low.
It’s pretty surprising that the police and trading standards didn’t blitz the first dodgy car boot sale the following weekend, nothing about it looked like legitimate activity.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/nov/18/centre-left-tipped-to-lose-copenhagen-for-first-time-in-electoral-history?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other
One for Labour to take note of.
Sounds unlikely in the real world but possible and hence backint the status quo is I think right call, notwithstanding the next GE is (which I appreciate is built into the call) years and years away.
“When the Trump administration brutally cut federal funding for biomedical research earlier this year, at least 383 clinical trials that were already in progress were abruptly cancelled, cutting off over 74,000 trial participants from their experimental treatments, monitoring, or follow-ups, according to a study published today in JAMA Internal Medicine.”
https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2024/04/29/what-bloody-man-is-that-stands-scotland-where-it-did/
Cannot wait for the markets to open.
Anyway, Movember update! I'm up to £707 raised still with 40% or so of the month left. That's a real positive!
Tache is already bristly, and I have more to grow. Might need beard oil or something to try and condition it as this is getting silly already.
Whats next? I am giving myself 2 full weeks fully off over Christmas. Grow a beard maybe...
https://bsky.app/profile/thetnholler.bsky.social/post/3m5uz4wppek2x
It may prove controversial.
A knock-on effect of Trump suddenly looking weak is people feel emboldened to push back against his flunkies too. Turns out the media knows exactly how to do this when they want to
https://bsky.app/profile/internethippo.bsky.social/post/3m5rhej42gk2j
I have a friend who works in disease tracking and he says the cutting of American funding will mean if we have a repeat of the 2014 West African Ebola outbreak then it will be too late to do anything in the West.
Our Tesla correspondent's report rant about the 3p per mile tax for EVs.
Nice objective report on the Telegraph. Essentially "This is from the Telegraph, so half of it may be bollocks."
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M-Fv39zGyAc
Good morning, everyone.
Provoked the desired response from the kind of people who are reading the Telegraph/Mail and watching GBeebies/TalkTory and are OUTRAGED that Tesco have banned Christmas trees.
I am depressed at the moment. But having good fun calling out performative wazzockry.
Also check out Emergency Podcast where we tore into "British Culture" and I unveiled my war against wazzocks
https://youtu.be/VkvpriRHc8s
Ah ...
"Tesco told the Daily Mail: 'We are at Tesco and have a range of real and artificial Christmas trees in store as part of a wide selection of Christmas products to help our customers celebrate Christmas this year.'
It said it is called an 'evergreen tree' to make it clear the type of Christmas tree inside the box."
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-15299775/Britons-rage-woke-Tescos-decision-rename-Christmas-trees-evergreen-trees.html
"Susan Hall, leader of the Conservatives in the London Assembly, was vocal about her thoughts on social media, writing on X: 'Wretched ridiculous nonsense, call it what it is, it's a Christmas tree. There, I said it out loud. I'm fed up with all this woke stupidity.'"
Can anything improve things for them or, like the Tories after Truss, are they just done.
What has been genuinely entertaining is that the first picture of the "Evergreen Tree" boxes was heavily cropped. To exclude the "Merry Christmas" pallet wrap they were stood in. And the range of other types of tree - glitter, snow covered, lit etc.
To listen to her, all chocolate bars should be called "Chocolate". Because calling out the variations is a plot to impose Sharia law or something.
Best post? The utter wazzock foaming on about a surbey claiming the majority of Brits will shun turkey for Christmas Dinner and eat another meat. "Brits have eaten Turkey for Christmas for 2,000 years" he claimed.
I suspect McLaren will get the Constructors', but I might see what the Williams odds are (especially if there's an each way, which there probably won't be for teams, but we'll see).
There was a moderate famous (in the building industry) moment when several small firms turned up at the same time to reclaim tools with their stamps on them, at a certain East End market. The local council called the police in - to stop them taking back their tools.
I am so sorry you have had a horrible 2025 and with a couple of members of our family suffered mental health issues I know it is important you do not overcommit and have lots of 'me' time
Hopefully you can enjoy your Christmas holiday and look forward to a much better 2026
I think the analysis is straightforward.
The Govt receive something like £1500 (my guestimate) per vehicle per year, and a chunk of that revenue comes from Fuel Duty. An equivalent is needed for electric vehicles.
Drivers have had it very easy for the last ~15 years, with Fuel Duty not even being increased with inflation, which has left too much room for vehicle prices to be hiked on the back of almost zero interest rates. Fuel Duty is now 52.95p per litre; with inflation it would be about 82p per litre. Total tax take per litre of fuel is perhaps 75-80p (53p + 25p of VAT on a total price of ~£1.45 per litre). If index linked it would be around £1.05.
I'd see any rate per mile being index linked, which is sensible. I make the petrol one something like 10p per mile, depending on assumptions. Plus or minus a margin.
So I'll call it that if a per mile tax comes in it will be around 8-9p per mile plus inflation from now to 2035, by then.
It's nice to have a Government which is looking to the future, rather than sitting immovably on their bottoms looking at the past whilst letting society fall apart around their ears (see eg the state of our roads).
(Open to corrections, and my estimation margin on the 8-9p number is +/- 15%.)
Till Andy Burnham comes to Dunsinane
Labour are screwed........
For me social media is the biggest new "sin" industry, and should be treated like gambling, alcohol and cigarettes, tax that instead.
I make it about 10p per mile (plus inflation from now) by 2035 to make up what will be lost from each petrol / diesel vehicle.
And we get cleaner air as well; what's not to like?
But, like middle aged men, they should also be taxed on weight and noise.
(I saw the 'tache, Speedy Gonzales". It explains a lot - like why you don't wear a one !)
And he inherited a diamond mine, so his opinion needs to be treated with awed respect.
Surely no Labour politician is going to go out of their way to undermine a Labour Prime Minister?
Oh, Burnham would...
They will probably argue taxing it would be against the principles laid down in the 1850s-ish, of not taxing knowledge - which is when the taxes on print, paper, books, newspapers etc. were abolished.
Of course, if they argue that, then they can't say no to becoming liable for the content, like any print publisher.
In the UK or out of it, its very difficult to see a viable path going forward. JM Barrie once said "there are few more impressive sights than a Scotsman on the make." What have we done to ourselves and our children?
Tax per mile would increase congestion in the suburbs and therefore air pollution here.
1 replace fuel duty with another tax on vehicle use of that sort of scale
2 replace fuel duty with £3000 per household or so of other taxes
3 find £3000 per household or so of spending cuts.
Part of our problem is that "taxing bad things to discourage them" has got over-tangled with "taxing things because the sort of society we want costs".
For me we need to improve things like driver training and our various systems, and encourage alternatives whilst making them possible (which requires changes in driver behaviour) - so there's an element of Pigou tax in it. But that is a philosophy change, and that argument is not imowon, yet.
I think one interesting point is that I would consider making the per mile charge retrospective.
On the social media I agree with you; that surely should be via the existing Digital Service Levy - which raises around 1 billion per annum. I think they are all keeping quiet until Mr Trump pops his clogs or is safely in a secure hospital, but then Europe will move approximately together.
For something contentious, I'd consider whacking a hard-wired 80mph max on everything. Plus tackling the Sur Ron etc supply chain properly.
(Things to do today, so I'm not doing a Bart-theology debate.)
I think it would be reasonable to change leaders in search of an electoral boost in the second half of 2027 giving the new leader 12-18 months.
I've read that Yougov weigh their Scottish polling heavily on 2014 no/yes vote recall without considering any demographic change considered (eg death). If so I'm not sure if this is a sound basis for current analysis.
Who knows, they might even be halfway good.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2025/nov/17/shabana-mahmood-puts-the-signs-up-britain-is-full-no-blacks-no-dogs-no-irish?CMP=share_btn_url
For something more targeted, more thought is needed. We have problems with policing it already due to imprecise targetting, but the issue still needs - imo - to be addressed.
Yesterday, I saw a video of one of the Reform chaps wazzocking on in Parliament about "locked up for hurty words" with reference to Lucy Connolly, ie repeating one of the routine lies. I think it was Rupert *.
He did not say anything about the "round Britain charity rowers" invading Great Yarmouth in a small boat, this time.
* Yes, I know, but he is no different from the rest of them.
https://www.theguardian.com/global/2025/nov/18/feel-a-connection-to-a-celebrity-you-dont-know-theres-a-word-for-that
The referendum had the highest turnout in any election in Scotland in the last eleven years, so the sample size is much larger for them to cmpare, however they take into account demographic changes, and give more prominence to the most recent election, which us bad for the SNP.
But their findings aren’t out of line with other pollsters who have different weightings, Ipsos have the most Yes friendly house effect, and in June, they had the SNP polling at 34% compared to YouGov’s 32%.
If they try and do pence per mile on all journeys on all roads I think they will struggle. Either they fit a black box to all cars or they extend the MOT bureaucracy to extend into taxation.
The tried and tested model is in France. Road pricing.
I'm not in favour if this btw - far from it. But I think it will happen eventually. And knowing the way this country is run we will find the most absurd complex inefficient way to organise it.
https://www.hrw.org/report/2025/11/12/you-have-arrived-in-hell/torture-and-other-abuses-against-venezuelans-in-el
Things to do. Have a good day all.
I'll be quite angry if they introduce this at the budget. A £1 per trip charge would raise as much as fuel duty at the moment and would do the opposite - and it would make the marginal cost of motoring in cities closer to that of public transport.