Ok, in quite interesting* but off topic posting, I had Dzus fasteners on my 748 but just thought it was a made up brand name. Turns out there was a Mr Dzus, he was Ukrainian and he revolutionised aircraft maintenance.
*I realise quite interesting is entirely subjective.
Oh, I don't know. One of the most interesting history of tech papers I ever read was about riveting methods in the aircraft industry in IIRC the 1930s and 1940s. The introduction of new methods had an impact on weight and strength (and therefore again on weight) which was massive.
There is a story about the Spitfire rivets. At the time domed rivets were common. The Spitfire used flush rivets which were more difficult/expensive to fit assuming they would be faster. They then glued split peas onto all the rivet heads and took a test flight to see if they slowed it down
Having rolled the pitch for income tax rises, Chancellor Reeves has now bottled it, under pressure from 10 Downing Street, which fears Keir Starmer could not survive such a major manifesto breach.
But the debt markets are not keen on a smorgasbord of small tax rises, which never deliver the predicted revenues. So gilt yields are already surging across the curve at the market open, with the yield on the 30-year bond up 14 basis points. Yields on bonds of all maturities are up more than 10 basis points.
Obviously the current lot are politically inept, as I keep saying, but we shouldn't fail to note how bad they also are at governing, and managing expectations, and steadying the markets, and dealing with the press.
There was no doubt in my mind in 2024 that Sunak and Hunt were the better choice, everything since then has simply confirmed that my judgement was sound.
Given Hunt created the fiscal black hole, presumably on the basis that he wouldn't be the one having to deal with the mess - I don't think so.
We can blame Reeves for falling into the trap Hunt set for her, but a responsible Chancellor wouldn't have scorched the earth as Hunt did.
This new black hole is all of Reeves making.
At the time of the election the fiscal gap, as I recall and as estimated by Chief Economists of financial institutions making billion dollar investments off the back of these estimates, was £40 to £50 billion.
So no. This fiscal black hole was inherited from the previous lot. Due to this government's complete inability to look more than a day ahead, Reeves decided it was in her interest to say no new taxes, which would be incompatible with a large fiscal gap, so she downplayed it. She shares blame for how it was managed but the actual black hole was the fault of Hunt
Treasury not considering cutting thresholds for higher rates of income tax, sources say
This is from Pippa Crerar, the Guardian’s political editor, on where we stand this morning after all the fallout from the budget income tax U-turn. She confirms that sources are now ruling out cutting the thresholds for paying higher rates of income tax.
She says government insiders claim the change is all down to better-than-expected fiscal forecasts, and that Labour opposition to the proposal was not a factor.
Where we are on budget after revelation Rachel Reeves will no longer hike income tax rates
- Treasury confirms that stronger than expected OBR forecasts means fiscal gap is closer to £20bn than previously speculated £30-£40bn. Reeves also wants headroom of around £15bn in addition.
---
Where are all the better than expected forecasts coming from, this year was supposed to be the best growth year for a few (and not exactly stellar). We are now undershoting that and all the fiscal indicators are worse, higher inflation, higher unemployment, etc.
It's hard to make sense of all this but it looks like she wants to leave income tax alone completely, ie. freezing/not lowering the personal allowance, and not dropping the amount of money the higher bands kick in. It could all be different next week if the chancellor changes her mind again
Can't read too much into a 0.1% monthly growth estimate, but rising unemployment is a concern.
Scotland has 6 income tax bands, 3 lower rates at 19%, 20% and 21% before the higher rates kick in. It's a more complex system, I thought that would be another option for her to add additional rates but looks like that's been debunked too
One thing that will definitely explode is in her first budget she promised a load of extra NHS spending that was all front loaded for the first 2 years. Then no extra for rest of the parliament. That just isn't going to happen. Firstly because all the pay rises have eaten up big chunks of the extra money (and the doctors are back for more) and because it all front loaded money will be spent in a rush, and more will be required to just stand still with more oldies.
So you say. Who to believe, random bloke on the internet or...
GROK!
Not just Grok! THe free AI thing on my laptop, Co-Pilot, has assured me all morning that THIS is the correct result for Canterbury Wincheap:-
Guy Meurice Liberal Democrat 356 Jasmin Dallos‑Foreman Labour 291 Peter Campbell Green Party 178 Elliot Curryer Conservative 128 Colin Spooner Reform UK 64
Total votes cast: 1,017 Turnout: 28.9%
Just to be cleaer, thoise figures are completely and totally WRONG. I have just had a ten minute arguement with the wretched thing about this - apparently it constructed the result from "unreliable" sources, but was confidenrt that that would be the correct result eventually.
I am lost for words. This is not the first time I have had trouble using AI for basic factual information (shops' opening hours, football results etc) and it is completely unreliable.
It's going to make for interesting betting markets if bookies can be persuaded to pay out on "what the computer says".
If there's one thing you really shouldn't be using AI for, it is basic factual information. AI isn't actually intelligent, and has no concept of facts.
It's definitely artificial, though. Credit where credit is due.
Treasury not considering cutting thresholds for higher rates of income tax, sources say
This is from Pippa Crerar, the Guardian’s political editor, on where we stand this morning after all the fallout from the budget income tax U-turn. She confirms that sources are now ruling out cutting the thresholds for paying higher rates of income tax.
She says government insiders claim the change is all down to better-than-expected fiscal forecasts, and that Labour opposition to the proposal was not a factor.
Where we are on budget after revelation Rachel Reeves will no longer hike income tax rates
- Treasury confirms that stronger than expected OBR forecasts means fiscal gap is closer to £20bn than previously speculated £30-£40bn. Reeves also wants headroom of around £15bn in addition.
---
Where are all the better than expected forecasts coming from, this year was supposed to be the best growth year for a few (and not exactly stellar). We are now undershoting that and all the fiscal indicators are worse, higher inflation, higher unemployment, etc.
It's hard to make sense of all this but it looks like she wants to leave income tax alone completely, ie. freezing/not lowering the personal allowance, and not dropping the amount of money the higher bands kick in. It could all be different next week if the chancellor changes her mind again
Can't read too much into a 0.1% monthly growth estimate, but rising unemployment is a concern.
Scotland has 6 income tax bands, 3 lower rates at 19%, 20% and 21% before the higher rates kick in. It's a more complex system, I thought that would be another option for her to add additional rates but looks like that's been debunked too
Last Quarter...the last month was -0.1%. Certainly monthly you don't read much into. But also worth remembering that the growth in the first half was massively down to additional government spending, not the private sector. Without all the government money splashing around it wasn't anywhere near as strong and per capita even less so.
Looks like most of the lost Labour vote went Green and most of the lost LD vote went Reform surprisingly. Indeed the Tory voteshare held up best of the 3 main traditional parties
Gosh Green HQ must be ecstatic over yesterdays results. Now the Lib Dems are being hammered. If they hold this sort of support they will destroy Labour and the Lib Dems in London and the North in May.
Gosh Green HQ must be ecstatic over yesterdays results. Now the Lib Dems are being hammered. If they hold this sort of support they will destroy Labour and the Lib Dems in London and the North in May.
Gosh Green HQ must be ecstatic over yesterdays results. Now the Lib Dems are being hammered. If they hold this sort of support they will destroy Labour and the Lib Dems in London and the North in May.
Albeit Canterbury is now a solid left of centre area, even Corbyn won it twice so you would expect Polanski to make gains there.
It does suggest though yes the Greens could make gains in London and inner cities in the North which also voted for Corbyn in 2017 and 2019 at the local elections in 2026.
The Greens also made a gain in Long Ashton in North Somerset yesterday but the Greens had held 1 of the seats there since 2019 and had thus long a presence in the area. The LDs held their seat in Vale of the White Horse last night even with lost voteshare
Ok, in quite interesting* but off topic posting, I had Dzus fasteners on my 748 but just thought it was a made up brand name. Turns out there was a Mr Dzus, he was Ukrainian and he revolutionised aircraft maintenance.
*I realise quite interesting is entirely subjective.
Oh, I don't know. One of the most interesting history of tech papers I ever read was about riveting methods in the aircraft industry in IIRC the 1930s and 1940s. The introduction of new methods had an impact on weight and strength (and therefore again on weight) which was massive.
There is a story about the Spitfire rivets. At the time domed rivets were common. The Spitfire used flush rivets which were more difficult/expensive to fit assuming they would be faster. They then glued split peas onto all the rivet heads and took a test flight to see if they slowed it down
Treasury not considering cutting thresholds for higher rates of income tax, sources say
This is from Pippa Crerar, the Guardian’s political editor, on where we stand this morning after all the fallout from the budget income tax U-turn. She confirms that sources are now ruling out cutting the thresholds for paying higher rates of income tax.
She says government insiders claim the change is all down to better-than-expected fiscal forecasts, and that Labour opposition to the proposal was not a factor.
Where we are on budget after revelation Rachel Reeves will no longer hike income tax rates
- Treasury confirms that stronger than expected OBR forecasts means fiscal gap is closer to £20bn than previously speculated £30-£40bn. Reeves also wants headroom of around £15bn in addition.
---
Where are all the better than expected forecasts coming from, this year was supposed to be the best growth year for a few (and not exactly stellar). We are now undershoting that and all the fiscal indicators are worse, higher inflation, higher unemployment, etc.
It's hard to make sense of all this but it looks like she wants to leave income tax alone completely, ie. freezing/not lowering the personal allowance, and not dropping the amount of money the higher bands kick in. It could all be different next week if the chancellor changes her mind again
Can't read too much into a 0.1% monthly growth estimate, but rising unemployment is a concern.
Scotland has 6 income tax bands, 3 lower rates at 19%, 20% and 21% before the higher rates kick in. It's a more complex system, I thought that would be another option for her to add additional rates but looks like that's been debunked too
Last Quarter...the last month was -0.1%. Certainly monthly you don't read much into. But also worth remembering that the growth in the first half was massively down to additional government spending, not the private sector. Without all the government money splashing around it wasn't anywhere near as strong and per capita even less so.
The September -0.1% would have been +0.1% without the JLR hack. Services output was up 0.2%. Expenditure grew strongly in Q3, with growth in public and private consumption, fixed investment and net exports. The offset came from inventories, which means the ONS couldn't find evidence of higher output to match the higher spending - in part because of the short term hit to carmaking. Business surveys suggest the outlook is improving and the labour market is stabilising.
Ok, in quite interesting* but off topic posting, I had Dzus fasteners on my 748 but just thought it was a made up brand name. Turns out there was a Mr Dzus, he was Ukrainian and he revolutionised aircraft maintenance.
*I realise quite interesting is entirely subjective.
Oh, I don't know. One of the most interesting history of tech papers I ever read was about riveting methods in the aircraft industry in IIRC the 1930s and 1940s. The introduction of new methods had an impact on weight and strength (and therefore again on weight) which was massive.
There is a story about the Spitfire rivets. At the time domed rivets were common. The Spitfire used flush rivets which were more difficult/expensive to fit assuming they would be faster. They then glued split peas onto all the rivet heads and took a test flight to see if they slowed it down
North American devised a cheaper and simpler way of installing flush rivets, for the P-51
In addition they designed the panels of the fuselage to fit more easily and manufactured them to higher tolerances.
That combined with a better radiator system resulted in a drag factor that Farnbourgh didn't believe.
Gosh Green HQ must be ecstatic over yesterdays results. Now the Lib Dems are being hammered. If they hold this sort of support they will destroy Labour and the Lib Dems in London and the North in May.
Gosh Green HQ must be ecstatic over yesterdays results. Now the Lib Dems are being hammered. If they hold this sort of support they will destroy Labour and the Lib Dems in London and the North in May.
Albeit Canterbury is now a solid left of centre area, even Corbyn won it twice so you would expect Polanski to make gains there.
It does suggest though yes the Greens could make gains in London and inner cities in the North which also voted for Corbyn in 2017 and 2019 at the local elections in 2026.
The Greens also made a gain in Long Ashton in North Somerset yesterday but the Greens had held 1 of the seats there since 2019 and had thus long a presence in the area. The LDs held their seat in Vale of the White Horse last night even with lost voteshare
Ok, in quite interesting* but off topic posting, I had Dzus fasteners on my 748 but just thought it was a made up brand name. Turns out there was a Mr Dzus, he was Ukrainian and he revolutionised aircraft maintenance.
*I realise quite interesting is entirely subjective.
Oh, I don't know. One of the most interesting history of tech papers I ever read was about riveting methods in the aircraft industry in IIRC the 1930s and 1940s. The introduction of new methods had an impact on weight and strength (and therefore again on weight) which was massive.
There is a story about the Spitfire rivets. At the time domed rivets were common. The Spitfire used flush rivets which were more difficult/expensive to fit assuming they would be faster. They then glued split peas onto all the rivet heads and took a test flight to see if they slowed it down
Ok, in quite interesting* but off topic posting, I had Dzus fasteners on my 748 but just thought it was a made up brand name. Turns out there was a Mr Dzus, he was Ukrainian and he revolutionised aircraft maintenance.
*I realise quite interesting is entirely subjective.
Oh, I don't know. One of the most interesting history of tech papers I ever read was about riveting methods in the aircraft industry in IIRC the 1930s and 1940s. The introduction of new methods had an impact on weight and strength (and therefore again on weight) which was massive.
There is a story about the Spitfire rivets. At the time domed rivets were common. The Spitfire used flush rivets which were more difficult/expensive to fit assuming they would be faster. They then glued split peas onto all the rivet heads and took a test flight to see if they slowed it down
Listen up, you BMA! Stop your bleating, I'm Wes Streeting.
Is that a rap?
(Intro) Yo, Listen up, you BMA! Stop your bleating, I'm Wes Streeting, an we ain't meeting. Steppin' in the ring, gloves on tight, When it comes to fightin’ for the people, man, he’s right.
(Verse 1) Yo, Wes Streeting, got a vision in his sight, Against the BMA, he’s bringin' the fight. They tried to shut him down, but he stayed on the grind, With a plan in his pocket and his mind on the line.
A force in the house, pushing change in the health, Demandin' better care, yeah, it's time to rebuild wealth. Not just for the docs, but for the patients too, A system built on fairness, that’s the goal he pursue.
(Chorus) Wes takin’ on the BMA, no hesitation, With truth in his heart, no room for frustration. He won the battle, now he’s claimin’ the crown, Wes Streeting, yeah, he’s bringin’ it down!
(full disclosure - that's mostly chatgpt)
ETA: Opinions may differ on whether chatgpt is hallucinating here!
Treasury not considering cutting thresholds for higher rates of income tax, sources say
This is from Pippa Crerar, the Guardian’s political editor, on where we stand this morning after all the fallout from the budget income tax U-turn. She confirms that sources are now ruling out cutting the thresholds for paying higher rates of income tax.
She says government insiders claim the change is all down to better-than-expected fiscal forecasts, and that Labour opposition to the proposal was not a factor.
Where we are on budget after revelation Rachel Reeves will no longer hike income tax rates
- Treasury confirms that stronger than expected OBR forecasts means fiscal gap is closer to £20bn than previously speculated £30-£40bn. Reeves also wants headroom of around £15bn in addition.
---
Where are all the better than expected forecasts coming from, this year was supposed to be the best growth year for a few (and not exactly stellar). We are now undershoting that and all the fiscal indicators are worse, higher inflation, higher unemployment, etc.
Why are they giving us a running commentary to this level of detail anyway? It is just causing a mix of fear, confusion and unpopularity.
Listen up, you BMA! Stop your bleating, I'm Wes Streeting.
Is that a rap?
(Intro) Yo, Listen up, you BMA! Stop your bleating, I'm Wes Streeting, an we ain't meeting. Steppin' in the ring, gloves on tight, When it comes to fightin’ for the people, man, he’s right.
(Verse 1) Yo, Wes Streeting, got a vision in his sight, Against the BMA, he’s bringin' the fight. They tried to shut him down, but he stayed on the grind, With a plan in his pocket and his mind on the line.
A force in the house, pushing change in the health, Demandin' better care, yeah, it's time to rebuild wealth. Not just for the docs, but for the patients too, A system built on fairness, that’s the goal he pursue.
(Chorus) Wes takin’ on the BMA, no hesitation, With truth in his heart, no room for frustration. He won the battle, now he’s claimin’ the crown, Wes Streeting, yeah, he’s bringin’ it down!
(full disclosure - that's mostly chatgpt)
ETA: Opinions may differ on whether chatgpt is hallucinating here!
Run with through suno and then post it on the socials as his dis track.
So you say. Who to believe, random bloke on the internet or...
GROK!
Not just Grok! THe free AI thing on my laptop, Co-Pilot, has assured me all morning that THIS is the correct result for Canterbury Wincheap:-
Guy Meurice Liberal Democrat 356 Jasmin Dallos‑Foreman Labour 291 Peter Campbell Green Party 178 Elliot Curryer Conservative 128 Colin Spooner Reform UK 64
Total votes cast: 1,017 Turnout: 28.9%
Just to be cleaer, thoise figures are completely and totally WRONG. I have just had a ten minute arguement with the wretched thing about this - apparently it constructed the result from "unreliable" sources, but was confidenrt that that would be the correct result eventually.
I am lost for words. This is not the first time I have had trouble using AI for basic factual information (shops' opening hours, football results etc) and it is completely unreliable.
It's going to make for interesting betting markets if bookies can be persuaded to pay out on "what the computer says".
Almost every conceivable tax rise has been vented in the media by a rudderless Treasury in fear of public opinion. Except, as far as I know, an extension of VAT to books and periodicals.
This curious anomaly was introduced by the first Wilson government as a sop to Fleet Street, at a time when Lord Liverpool's newspaper tax was still a sore memory and a cardinal point in the O-level syllabus. It's far less justified today when information and learning are transmitted through numerous contemporary channels and printing is reserved for arrant nonsense and popular entertainment.
I'm not sure how much cash it would produce, but it would certainly raise a satisfying clamour from academics, journos and pulp fiction writers.
So you say. Who to believe, random bloke on the internet or...
GROK!
Not just Grok! THe free AI thing on my laptop, Co-Pilot, has assured me all morning that THIS is the correct result for Canterbury Wincheap:-
Guy Meurice Liberal Democrat 356 Jasmin Dallos‑Foreman Labour 291 Peter Campbell Green Party 178 Elliot Curryer Conservative 128 Colin Spooner Reform UK 64
Total votes cast: 1,017 Turnout: 28.9%
Just to be cleaer, thoise figures are completely and totally WRONG. I have just had a ten minute arguement with the wretched thing about this - apparently it constructed the result from "unreliable" sources, but was confidenrt that that would be the correct result eventually.
I am lost for words. This is not the first time I have had trouble using AI for basic factual information (shops' opening hours, football results etc) and it is completely unreliable.
It's going to make for interesting betting markets if bookies can be persuaded to pay out on "what the computer says".
This is why AI can't be relied upon. It makes things up.
When ChatGPT first launched I noticed that it invented historical election results, although they've corrected that now.
Treasury not considering cutting thresholds for higher rates of income tax, sources say
This is from Pippa Crerar, the Guardian’s political editor, on where we stand this morning after all the fallout from the budget income tax U-turn. She confirms that sources are now ruling out cutting the thresholds for paying higher rates of income tax.
She says government insiders claim the change is all down to better-than-expected fiscal forecasts, and that Labour opposition to the proposal was not a factor.
Where we are on budget after revelation Rachel Reeves will no longer hike income tax rates
- Treasury confirms that stronger than expected OBR forecasts means fiscal gap is closer to £20bn than previously speculated £30-£40bn. Reeves also wants headroom of around £15bn in addition.
---
Where are all the better than expected forecasts coming from, this year was supposed to be the best growth year for a few (and not exactly stellar). We are now undershoting that and all the fiscal indicators are worse, higher inflation, higher unemployment, etc.
Why are they giving us a running commentary to this level of detail anyway? It is just causing a mix of fear, confusion and unpopularity.
Because they're still minging....
Reeves is Treasury flotsam, they need someone resolute to replace her, the actual tax and spending policies are probably less important.
So you say. Who to believe, random bloke on the internet or...
GROK!
Not just Grok! THe free AI thing on my laptop, Co-Pilot, has assured me all morning that THIS is the correct result for Canterbury Wincheap:-
Guy Meurice Liberal Democrat 356 Jasmin Dallos‑Foreman Labour 291 Peter Campbell Green Party 178 Elliot Curryer Conservative 128 Colin Spooner Reform UK 64
Total votes cast: 1,017 Turnout: 28.9%
Just to be cleaer, thoise figures are completely and totally WRONG. I have just had a ten minute arguement with the wretched thing about this - apparently it constructed the result from "unreliable" sources, but was confidenrt that that would be the correct result eventually.
I am lost for words. This is not the first time I have had trouble using AI for basic factual information (shops' opening hours, football results etc) and it is completely unreliable.
It's going to make for interesting betting markets if bookies can be persuaded to pay out on "what the computer says".
Green GAIN from Liberal Democrat. Changes w/ 2023.
Facially it looks like Lab lost votes to the Greens, and Libs lost votes to Reform. Is that plauible? Is that true?
We can see in the opinion poll data that Reform are picking up more votes from Labour than the Lib Dems. And so we'd expect that here, absent any other information, and for the Greens to also pick up votes from both those parties too.
Just because there's a coincidence in the Labour decline in view share being nearly equal to the Green increase doesn't mean there isn't more churn under the headline changes.
So you say. Who to believe, random bloke on the internet or...
GROK!
Not just Grok! THe free AI thing on my laptop, Co-Pilot, has assured me all morning that THIS is the correct result for Canterbury Wincheap:-
Guy Meurice Liberal Democrat 356 Jasmin Dallos‑Foreman Labour 291 Peter Campbell Green Party 178 Elliot Curryer Conservative 128 Colin Spooner Reform UK 64
Total votes cast: 1,017 Turnout: 28.9%
Just to be cleaer, thoise figures are completely and totally WRONG. I have just had a ten minute arguement with the wretched thing about this - apparently it constructed the result from "unreliable" sources, but was confidenrt that that would be the correct result eventually.
I am lost for words. This is not the first time I have had trouble using AI for basic factual information (shops' opening hours, football results etc) and it is completely unreliable.
It's going to make for interesting betting markets if bookies can be persuaded to pay out on "what the computer says".
Green GAIN from Liberal Democrat. Changes w/ 2023.
Facially it looks like Lab lost votes to the Greens, and Libs lost votes to Reform. Is that plauible? Is that true?
As Lost Password says, Labour to RefUK and Green, and LD to Green, seem more plausible. But I noticed a Portsmouth Lib Dem councillor defected to Reform the other day, so maybe anything is possible.
https://jackdevanney.substack.com/p/the-ap1000-loan-debacle With the Westinghouse loan, the Trump Administration has invented a new form of state capitalism, an oxymoron if there ever was one. And it will bury US nuclear in an even more expensive coffin.
Details are almost non-existent. Here’s my limited and quite possibly erroneous understanding of the deal.
1) In exchange for an unspecified amount of tariff relief, Japan will buy $550 billion dollars of ultra-long US bonds, almost certainly a terrible investment as the US inflates away the value of that paper. Japan is either betting that it can get that money back in trade, or this is the price of the US military umbrella. Either way the US taxpayer will end up with the bulk of the bill.
2) Trump will take 80 billion of that public money and loan it to Westinghouse to build “up to” eight AP1000’s. If the resulting monopoly is a success, the government can convert the debt into a one-sixth share of Westinghouse.
It’s hard to imagine a worst plan. It will strangle competition while exacerbating the real problem.
Imagine how you feel if your GE-Hitachi or the other outfits that have NRC certified designs. You’ve spent 100’s of millions fighting your way through all the NRC barriers to entry; and now the US government turns on you and finances your main remaining competitor with taxpayer money. Probably best to concentrate on the Japanese market.
The position for the newcomers is even worse. The taxpayer has already blown over 700 million on NuScale. Do they now have to spend more to defend this investment against themselves?..
..The only real hope for the US was the Koreans showing the way with the APR1400. Whatever chance we had of the Koreans entering the US market, just disappeared.
This is also absolutely applicable to UK nuclear:
...Lack of standardization is indeed a real problem for US nuclear. But it is the regulation that need standardization; not the designs. The Westinghouse loan not only does nothing to standardize regulation, but instead it makes things much worse by allowing the regulator to impose even more expensive requirements.
The AP1000 Choice
If you want a concrete argument why we should not standardize on a single design, look no further than the AP1000. The AP1000 is a cramped, nearly unmaintainable, crappy design. The design philosophy appears to have been to minimize up front CAPEX subject to meeting NRC paperwork requirements. On paper, the AP1000 has a design life of 60 years. Westinghouse knows better. They gave Georgia Power a warranty period of 2 years starting from the date of Substantial Completion, with a cap of 10% of the contract price. You will get a better guarantee with a toaster.
So US nuclear is now a monopoly based on a lousy standardized design using a klunky, brute force technology, regulated by an unstandardized autocracy who can now tap public funds to pay for its whims. It’s hard to imagine that it can get worse.
Oh, it gets much worse.
The power it generates will cost a multiple of what battery backed solar will cost. It'll be among the worst trades in history.
Almost every conceivable tax rise has been vented in the media by a rudderless Treasury in fear of public opinion. Except, as far as I know, an extension of VAT to books and periodicals.
This curious anomaly was introduced by the first Wilson government as a sop to Fleet Street, at a time when Lord Liverpool's newspaper tax was still a sore memory and a cardinal point in the O-level syllabus. It's far less justified today when information and learning are transmitted through numerous contemporary channels and printing is reserved for arrant nonsense and popular entertainment.
I'm not sure how much cash it would produce, but it would certainly raise a satisfying clamour from academics, journos and pulp fiction writers.
So you say. Who to believe, random bloke on the internet or...
GROK!
Not just Grok! THe free AI thing on my laptop, Co-Pilot, has assured me all morning that THIS is the correct result for Canterbury Wincheap:-
Guy Meurice Liberal Democrat 356 Jasmin Dallos‑Foreman Labour 291 Peter Campbell Green Party 178 Elliot Curryer Conservative 128 Colin Spooner Reform UK 64
Total votes cast: 1,017 Turnout: 28.9%
Just to be cleaer, thoise figures are completely and totally WRONG. I have just had a ten minute arguement with the wretched thing about this - apparently it constructed the result from "unreliable" sources, but was confidenrt that that would be the correct result eventually.
I am lost for words. This is not the first time I have had trouble using AI for basic factual information (shops' opening hours, football results etc) and it is completely unreliable.
It's going to make for interesting betting markets if bookies can be persuaded to pay out on "what the computer says".
Green GAIN from Liberal Democrat. Changes w/ 2023.
Facially it looks like Lab lost votes to the Greens, and Libs lost votes to Reform. Is that plauible? Is that true?
We can see in the opinion poll data that Reform are picking up more votes from Labour than the Lib Dems. And so we'd expect that here, absent any other information, and for the Greens to also pick up votes from both those parties too.
Just because there's a coincidence in the Labour decline in view share being nearly equal to the Green increase doesn't mean there isn't more churn under the headline changes.
Old Parties Head in Sand, fingers in ears.
New choices to fight it out.
This has only just begun.
Pick your sides Nige and his thicko Fascists or Zack and the progressives.
All other Parties ru ning under continuity Tory 《blue red yellow)
Treasury not considering cutting thresholds for higher rates of income tax, sources say
This is from Pippa Crerar, the Guardian’s political editor, on where we stand this morning after all the fallout from the budget income tax U-turn. She confirms that sources are now ruling out cutting the thresholds for paying higher rates of income tax.
She says government insiders claim the change is all down to better-than-expected fiscal forecasts, and that Labour opposition to the proposal was not a factor.
Where we are on budget after revelation Rachel Reeves will no longer hike income tax rates
- Treasury confirms that stronger than expected OBR forecasts means fiscal gap is closer to £20bn than previously speculated £30-£40bn. Reeves also wants headroom of around £15bn in addition.
---
Where are all the better than expected forecasts coming from, this year was supposed to be the best growth year for a few (and not exactly stellar). We are now undershoting that and all the fiscal indicators are worse, higher inflation, higher unemployment, etc.
Why are they giving us a running commentary to this level of detail anyway? It is just causing a mix of fear, confusion and unpopularity.
Because they're still minging....
Reeves is Treasury flotsam, they need someone resolute to replace her, the actual tax and spending policies are probably less important.
Regardless of the wisdom or otherwise of the policy, I marvel that the Reeves/Starmer machine again has managed to expend political capital on a decision without actually making the decision. It's like WFA all over again. They manage to lose support and alienate people without actually achieving anything.
🚨 NEW: Independent MP Adnan Hussain has resigned from Your Party
"The culture surrounding the party has become dominated by persistent infighting, factional competition, and a struggle for power, position and influence"
🚨 NEW: Independent MP Adnan Hussain has resigned from Your Party
"The culture surrounding the party has become dominated by persistent infighting, factional competition, and a struggle for power, position and influence"
🚨 NEW: Independent MP Adnan Hussain has resigned from Your Party
"The culture surrounding the party has become dominated by persistent infighting, factional competition, and a struggle for power, position and influence"
🚨 NEW: Independent MP Adnan Hussain has resigned from Your Party
"The culture surrounding the party has become dominated by persistent infighting, factional competition, and a struggle for power, position and influence"
🚨 NEW: Independent MP Adnan Hussain has resigned from Your Party
"The culture surrounding the party has become dominated by persistent infighting, factional competition, and a struggle for power, position and influence"
🚨 NEW: Independent MP Adnan Hussain has resigned from Your Party
"The culture surrounding the party has become dominated by persistent infighting, factional competition, and a struggle for power, position and influence"
🚨 NEW: Independent MP Adnan Hussain has resigned from Your Party
"The culture surrounding the party has become dominated by persistent infighting, factional competition, and a struggle for power, position and influence"
One of the missiles Russia fired at Kyiv last night damaged the embassy of Azerbaijan.
Now, given the accuracy of Russian missiles, it's entirely plausible they were aiming at one of the many civilian targets nearby - a medical centre, perhaps, or a gym?
But, still. The Azerbaijanis don't seem that happy about it.
One of the missiles Russia fired at Kyiv last night damaged the embassy of Azerbaijan.
Now, given the accuracy of Russian missiles, it's entirely plausible they were aiming at one of the many civilian targets nearby - a medical centre, perhaps, or a gym?
But, still. The Azerbaijanis don't seem that happy about it.
These things happen, we bombed the Chinese embassy during the Kosovo intervention.
🚨 NEW: Independent MP Adnan Hussain has resigned from Your Party
"The culture surrounding the party has become dominated by persistent infighting, factional competition, and a struggle for power, position and influence"
🚨 NEW: Independent MP Adnan Hussain has resigned from Your Party
"The culture surrounding the party has become dominated by persistent infighting, factional competition, and a struggle for power, position and influence"
Quite an achievement to resign from a party before it formally exists - it hasn't had its founding conference yet. Although the reason he gives could apply to any political party, I suppose.
One of the missiles Russia fired at Kyiv last night damaged the embassy of Azerbaijan.
Now, given the accuracy of Russian missiles, it's entirely plausible they were aiming at one of the many civilian targets nearby - a medical centre, perhaps, or a gym?
But, still. The Azerbaijanis don't seem that happy about it.
These things happen, we bombed the Chinese embassy during the Kosovo intervention.
The Americans used a PGM to accidentally accident* some rather interesting electronic equipment that the Chinese Embassy had at the bottom of their very large garden.
This was so accidental and meaningless that the Chinese barely complained.
Ok, in quite interesting* but off topic posting, I had Dzus fasteners on my 748 but just thought it was a made up brand name. Turns out there was a Mr Dzus, he was Ukrainian and he revolutionised aircraft maintenance.
*I realise quite interesting is entirely subjective.
Oh, I don't know. One of the most interesting history of tech papers I ever read was about riveting methods in the aircraft industry in IIRC the 1930s and 1940s. The introduction of new methods had an impact on weight and strength (and therefore again on weight) which was massive.
There is a story about the Spitfire rivets. At the time domed rivets were common. The Spitfire used flush rivets which were more difficult/expensive to fit assuming they would be faster. They then glued split peas onto all the rivet heads and took a test flight to see if they slowed it down
North American devised a cheaper and simpler way of installing flush rivets, for the P-51
In addition they designed the panels of the fuselage to fit more easily and manufactured them to higher tolerances.
That combined with a better radiator system resulted in a drag factor that Farnbourgh didn't believe.
Wasn't the P-51 radiator placement (reportedly suggested by Beverley Shenstone) and intake/exhaust sizings, and the concomitant greater Meredith effect, of more significance ?
"‘Boriswave’ migrants face 10-year ban on claiming benefits Shabana Mahmood plans rule change amid fears the immigrants could add hundreds of millions of pounds to welfare bill"
Ok, in quite interesting* but off topic posting, I had Dzus fasteners on my 748 but just thought it was a made up brand name. Turns out there was a Mr Dzus, he was Ukrainian and he revolutionised aircraft maintenance.
*I realise quite interesting is entirely subjective.
Oh, I don't know. One of the most interesting history of tech papers I ever read was about riveting methods in the aircraft industry in IIRC the 1930s and 1940s. The introduction of new methods had an impact on weight and strength (and therefore again on weight) which was massive.
There is a story about the Spitfire rivets. At the time domed rivets were common. The Spitfire used flush rivets which were more difficult/expensive to fit assuming they would be faster. They then glued split peas onto all the rivet heads and took a test flight to see if they slowed it down
North American devised a cheaper and simpler way of installing flush rivets, for the P-51
In addition they designed the panels of the fuselage to fit more easily and manufactured them to higher tolerances.
That combined with a better radiator system resulted in a drag factor that Farnbourgh didn't believe.
Wasn't the P-51 radiator placement (reportedly suggested by Beverley Shenstone) and intake/exhaust sizings, and the concomitant greater Meredith effect, of more significance ?
The better radiator overall design (placement, internals, exhaust venturi etc etc etc) was as a part of the drag reduction effort by North American - IIRC the close fitted, flush panels accounts for 30%+ of the drag improvement. In some flight regimes.
One of the missiles Russia fired at Kyiv last night damaged the embassy of Azerbaijan.
Now, given the accuracy of Russian missiles, it's entirely plausible they were aiming at one of the many civilian targets nearby - a medical centre, perhaps, or a gym?
But, still. The Azerbaijanis don't seem that happy about it.
These things happen, we bombed the Chinese embassy during the Kosovo intervention.
Which led to China being admitted to world trade with no intention of abiding by its rules, and to China stealing a shitload of IP. So not free of consequences.
One of the missiles Russia fired at Kyiv last night damaged the embassy of Azerbaijan.
Now, given the accuracy of Russian missiles, it's entirely plausible they were aiming at one of the many civilian targets nearby - a medical centre, perhaps, or a gym?
But, still. The Azerbaijanis don't seem that happy about it.
These things happen, we bombed the Chinese embassy during the Kosovo intervention.
Ok, in quite interesting* but off topic posting, I had Dzus fasteners on my 748 but just thought it was a made up brand name. Turns out there was a Mr Dzus, he was Ukrainian and he revolutionised aircraft maintenance.
*I realise quite interesting is entirely subjective.
Oh, I don't know. One of the most interesting history of tech papers I ever read was about riveting methods in the aircraft industry in IIRC the 1930s and 1940s. The introduction of new methods had an impact on weight and strength (and therefore again on weight) which was massive.
There is a story about the Spitfire rivets. At the time domed rivets were common. The Spitfire used flush rivets which were more difficult/expensive to fit assuming they would be faster. They then glued split peas onto all the rivet heads and took a test flight to see if they slowed it down
North American devised a cheaper and simpler way of installing flush rivets, for the P-51
In addition they designed the panels of the fuselage to fit more easily and manufactured them to higher tolerances.
That combined with a better radiator system resulted in a drag factor that Farnbourgh didn't believe.
Wasn't the P-51 radiator placement (reportedly suggested by Beverley Shenstone) and intake/exhaust sizings, and the concomitant greater Meredith effect, of more significance ?
The better radiator overall design (placement, internals, exhaust venturi etc etc etc) was as a part of the drag reduction effort by North American - IIRC the close fitted, flush panels accounts for 30%+ of the drag improvement. In some flight regimes.
I thought the wing was of more significance ?
Obviously the supposedly "laminar" wing, with its much sharper profile, couldn't be realised without those things, but the fact is that it was simply a later design than the Spitfire, and benefitted from several years of aggressive development in aerodynamics... and the British didn't have the resources for a full reworking of the Spitfire on similar principles.
We had still had some pretty advanced aero development in the 40s, postwar:
But the huge disparity in development resources told pretty quickly.
It’s absolutely pissing it down in Oxford today, I can tell you that much.
The Guardian is just as bad as the Express with these stupid stories it pumps out to pander to its readers.
Rain hammered down here over the last couple of days too. We were going to the toon for a drink, well Gateshead Railway Quarter, but sacked it off due to the weather. So it’s an M&S pizza in the warm.
So you say. Who to believe, random bloke on the internet or...
GROK!
Not just Grok! THe free AI thing on my laptop, Co-Pilot, has assured me all morning that THIS is the correct result for Canterbury Wincheap:-
Guy Meurice Liberal Democrat 356 Jasmin Dallos‑Foreman Labour 291 Peter Campbell Green Party 178 Elliot Curryer Conservative 128 Colin Spooner Reform UK 64
Total votes cast: 1,017 Turnout: 28.9%
Just to be cleaer, thoise figures are completely and totally WRONG. I have just had a ten minute arguement with the wretched thing about this - apparently it constructed the result from "unreliable" sources, but was confidenrt that that would be the correct result eventually.
I am lost for words. This is not the first time I have had trouble using AI for basic factual information (shops' opening hours, football results etc) and it is completely unreliable.
It's going to make for interesting betting markets if bookies can be persuaded to pay out on "what the computer says".
Green GAIN from Liberal Democrat. Changes w/ 2023.
Facially it looks like Lab lost votes to the Greens, and Libs lost votes to Reform. Is that plauible? Is that true?
As Lost Password says, Labour to RefUK and Green, and LD to Green, seem more plausible. But I noticed a Portsmouth Lib Dem councillor defected to Reform the other day, so maybe anything is possible.
Said councillor has also been Labour, Green, and Indi. He just tries to work out who might win.
So supposedly the income tax reversal is because there is £10bn of headroom.
Sorry but that’s utterly insane - take the money (and the pain now) because I don’t trust that forecast and suspect you will need to do it next year because the forecast will be wrong
HTF do they have headroom when borrowing >120B, they are at bottom of the sea
Comments
@ElectionMapsUK
Wincheap (Canterbury) Council By-Election Result:
🌍 GRN: 39.1% (+24.1)
🔶 LDM: 24.1% (-12.2)
➡️ RFM: 16.3% (New)
🌹 LAB: 12.8% (-25.5)
🌳 CON: 7.7% (-2.6)
Green GAIN from Liberal Democrat.
Changes w/ 2023."
https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1989312242169331742
Can't read too much into a 0.1% monthly growth estimate, but rising unemployment is a concern.
Scotland has 6 income tax bands, 3 lower rates at 19%, 20% and 21% before the higher rates kick in. It's a more complex system, I thought that would be another option for her to add additional rates but looks like that's been debunked too
Now the Lib Dems are being hammered.
If they hold this sort of support they will destroy Labour and the Lib Dems in London and the North in May.
It does suggest though yes the Greens could make gains in London and inner cities in the North which also voted for Corbyn in 2017 and 2019 at the local elections in 2026.
The Greens also made a gain in Long Ashton in North Somerset yesterday but the Greens had held 1 of the seats there since 2019 and had thus long a presence in the area. The LDs held their seat in Vale of the White Horse last night even with lost voteshare
You can’t just leave a cliffhanger like that.
In addition they designed the panels of the fuselage to fit more easily and manufactured them to higher tolerances.
That combined with a better radiator system resulted in a drag factor that Farnbourgh didn't believe.
https://aerosociety.com/media/4953/the-aerodynamics-of-the-spitfire.pdf
RFM: 32% (-3)
CON: 19% (+1)
LAB: 17% (-3)
LDM: 15% (+1)
GRN: 13% (+5)
SNP: 3% (=)
Via
@tweetfreshwater
, 7-9 Nov.
Changes w/ 3-5 Oct.
https://x.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1989321854289346983?s=20
(Intro)
Yo, Listen up, you BMA! Stop your bleating,
I'm Wes Streeting, an we ain't meeting.
Steppin' in the ring, gloves on tight,
When it comes to fightin’ for the people, man, he’s right.
(Verse 1)
Yo, Wes Streeting, got a vision in his sight,
Against the BMA, he’s bringin' the fight.
They tried to shut him down, but he stayed on the grind,
With a plan in his pocket and his mind on the line.
A force in the house, pushing change in the health,
Demandin' better care, yeah, it's time to rebuild wealth.
Not just for the docs, but for the patients too,
A system built on fairness, that’s the goal he pursue.
(Chorus)
Wes takin’ on the BMA, no hesitation,
With truth in his heart, no room for frustration.
He won the battle, now he’s claimin’ the crown,
Wes Streeting, yeah, he’s bringin’ it down!
(full disclosure - that's mostly chatgpt)
ETA: Opinions may differ on whether chatgpt is hallucinating here!
🌍 GRN: 39.1% (+24.1)
🔶 LDM: 24.1% (-12.2)
➡️ RFM: 16.3% (New)
🌹 LAB: 12.8% (-25.5)
🌳 CON: 7.7% (-2.6)
Green GAIN from Liberal Democrat.
Changes w/ 2023.
Facially it looks like Lab lost votes to the Greens, and Libs lost votes to Reform. Is that plauible? Is that true?
Kemi Badenoch reacts to reports of a budget U-turn by the Labour Party
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_lwf_MA4Mxk
This curious anomaly was introduced by the first Wilson government as a sop to Fleet Street, at a time when Lord Liverpool's newspaper tax was still a sore memory and a cardinal point in the O-level syllabus. It's far less justified today when information and learning are transmitted through numerous contemporary channels and printing is reserved for arrant nonsense and popular entertainment.
I'm not sure how much cash it would produce, but it would certainly raise a satisfying clamour from academics, journos and pulp fiction writers.
https://news.canterbury.gov.uk/news/wincheap-ward-by-election-result/
Reeves is Treasury flotsam, they need someone resolute to replace her, the actual tax and spending policies are probably less important.
Just because there's a coincidence in the Labour decline in view share being nearly equal to the Green increase doesn't mean there isn't more churn under the headline changes.
https://www.instagram.com/stories/rishisunakmp/3765132148102418236/
REF – 33% (-)
GRN – 17% (-1)
CON – 16% (-)
LAB – 15% (-)
LD – 11% (-)
Via
@findoutnowUK
, 12 Nov (+/- vs 5-6 Nov)
The power it generates will cost a multiple of what battery backed solar will cost. It'll be among the worst trades in history.
However, they have the Greens higher than other polls and Labour, the Tories and LDs lower
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election
New choices to fight it out.
This has only just begun.
Pick your sides Nige and his thicko Fascists or Zack and the progressives.
All other Parties ru ning under continuity Tory 《blue red yellow)
🚨 NEW: Independent MP Adnan Hussain has resigned from Your Party
"The culture surrounding the party has become dominated by persistent infighting, factional competition, and a struggle for power, position and influence"
https://x.com/PolitlcsUK/status/1989341244519338383?s=20
Mail - Reeves' 'sums of anarchy'
beerfair trade vegan oat milk latte.....FO Now. Message to Zombie Tory Parties
What a shambles.
The Greens should try to kill it no accomodate it.
Now, given the accuracy of Russian missiles, it's entirely plausible they were aiming at one of the many civilian targets nearby - a medical centre, perhaps, or a gym?
But, still. The Azerbaijanis don't seem that happy about it.
Your party was designed to be The Improved, Better Labour Party.
So far, they are far better at -
- persistent infighting
- factional competition
- struggle for power, position and influence
That's a lot of KPIs they've met. Bonuses all round? maybe £800k to split?
Although the reason he gives could apply to any political party, I suppose.
This was so accidental and meaningless that the Chinese barely complained.
*Completely accidentally
Shabana Mahmood plans rule change amid fears the immigrants could add hundreds of millions of pounds to welfare bill"
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2025/11/14/shabana-mahmood-boriswave-benefits-crackdown
https://www.thelettersfromleo.com/p/new-transgender-activists-to-dine
https://www.euractiv.com/news/stoltenberg-pushes-back-against-eu-ferroalloy-tariffs-ahead-of-key-vote/
https://www.unitedutilities.com/help-and-support/your-water-supply/your-reservoirs/reservoir-levels/
https://bsky.app/profile/atrupar.com/post/3m5lz676fec2e
Obviously the supposedly "laminar" wing, with its much sharper profile, couldn't be realised without those things, but the fact is that it was simply a later design than the Spitfire, and benefitted from several years of aggressive development in aerodynamics... and the British didn't have the resources for a full reworking of the Spitfire on similar principles.
We had still had some pretty advanced aero development in the 40s, postwar:
But the huge disparity in development resources told pretty quickly.
Rain hammered down here over the last couple of days too. We were going to the toon for a drink, well Gateshead Railway Quarter, but sacked it off due to the weather. So it’s an M&S pizza in the warm.
The retired teacher saluted the war memorial in Llandudno, North Wales, on Sunday while wearing a row of 12 medals over an ill-fitting uniform.
North Wales Police arrested him under the 1894 Uniforms Act, which bars anyone who has not served in the armed forces from wearing military uniform.
NEW THREAD
https://tardis.fandom.com/wiki/Jonathon_Carley