politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Marf on the Ukaine crisis and NATO meeting
Comments
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I'm an optimist...they should learn from our mistakesChokinVase said:
To be fair, Islam is about 500+ years younger than Christianity, so they're pretty much on the required flight path, right?Charles said:
I was thinking that this morning when watching Wolf Hall: there was a scene when they were burning a prisoner.Paul_Mid_Beds said:
Theres quite a lot of similarities between hardline protestantism and Wahhabism. For example, the demolition of idoltatrous statues in Mecca has similar parallels to what happened in the UK and the violence and misery meted out under the leader of Britains Taliban, Oliver Cromwell, was just as savage as anything IS have done, especially in Ireland.Peter_the_Punter said:
Presbyterians then, eh?
People calling for an Islamic Reformation don't seem to understand that Wahhabism IS Islam's reformation.
We did that.
FIVE HUNDRED years ago
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Nice cartoon, Marf!
Ukraine if you want to. The lady's NOT for Kraining!0 -
LD, I would have thought in the form of students in the uni's and public sector workers. So helpful to PC I would have thought but unlikely to be crucial.Tissue_Price said:
ThanksNeil said:
I'd have the Lib Dems favourite to hold on here so I'm not sure it's great value. I wouldnt be shocked if they lost mind.Tissue_Price said:Ceredigion. Plaid 13/8 with Hills (5/4 elsewhere). Looks like value on the face of it, but I'm not up on Plaid at all. Any views?
Will the Greens pull more from LD or PC, do you think? They could prove decisive here.0 -
For new measures, yes. But those are relatively small compared with what has already been done and what is already in the pipeline (pension changes etc). So in policy terms the difference doesn't look unbridgeable at all. In headline terms a compromise of (say) 75:25.Neil said:Indeed, but that exacerbates the differences between the Tories and Lib Dems. The Tories are left with 100:0 and the Lib Dems want to move to 50:50.
Not necessarily, because the LibDems are proposing the same overall fiscal envelope as the Conservatives, whereas Labour are proposing a slower rate of deficit reduction.Neil said:On fiscal policy it's a no brainer that Lab / Lib Dem looks a better fit than Tory / Lib Dem
Essentially the LibDems are positioning themselves as a fiscally-responsible left-of-centre party, which makes sense politically and is not madness economically.
Whether anyone is listening is another matter, of course.0 -
I didn't mean there would be a vote on each case! Is that what you thought I meant?Charles said:
It's a philosophical position: the state is, and can only ever be, the agent of its citizens.isam said:
Well we do disagree, but that's fair enough
The state does have that position of authority if people vote for it.. . the state is only an embodiment of the will of the people (Levithian is it?)
I would have a referendum on things like this, but have the status quo favoured so the vote for change has to win 60/40
Also I don't really see why its ok for the state to have the power to lock someone up until they die, but not to castrate paedophiles or torture/execute convicted terrorists. or why the punishment for murderers/paedophiles should be the same as for robbers/tax avoiders only for longer
If someone refuses to abide by the rules that society sets, then it is fair to exclude someone from the benefits of society. This can either be for a period of time or permanently. Thus, for example, I'm sure you would be a fan of deporting foreign criminals - which would be entirely consistent with this philosophical position.
But I'm very uncomfortable with the idea of people (whether 51% or 60%) saying "we don't like X, therefore we are going to vote to injury/kill him".
I meant a referendum on whether we could use castration/execution as punishment in any circumstances, and if 60% said yes, then judges could be.. the judges... of when it is necessary0 -
Islam forbades drinking, gambling and fornication. No wonder it is producing so many angry frustrated men.ChokinVase said:
To be fair, Islam is about 500+ years younger than Christianity, so they're pretty much on the required flight path, right?Charles said:
I was thinking that this morning when watching Wolf Hall: there was a scene when they were burning a prisoner.Paul_Mid_Beds said:
Theres quite a lot of similarities between hardline protestantism and Wahhabism. For example, the demolition of idoltatrous statues in Mecca has similar parallels to what happened in the UK and the violence and misery meted out under the leader of Britains Taliban, Oliver Cromwell, was just as savage as anything IS have done, especially in Ireland.Peter_the_Punter said:
Presbyterians then, eh?
People calling for an Islamic Reformation don't seem to understand that Wahhabism IS Islam's reformation.
We did that.
FIVE HUNDRED years ago
I did/do all of the above and I'm happy.
They should make me the Grand Mufti of Islam.
I'd have proper reformation within a decade.0 -
Prawn COCKtail?TheScreamingEagles said:I'm not sure if this is an urban myth or not.
But didn't one teenage guy and his girlfriend use a crisp packet and a rubber band as a condom.
I just hope they didn't use a packet of salt and vinegar.0 -
I agree. I hope the price of oil is kept near the current levels or lower.antifrank said:Rather than following a solution that relied on arming Ukraine, I would rather bring two bricks together on Russia's economic undercarriage.
It is very sad for the nuclear disarmament movement that Ukraine, a country promised secure borders if it gave up nukes, has part of its country turned into a war zone by the Russians who signed the original promise. What country would give up nukes now? Under Greens/SNP etc we would. I like Marf's cartoon but cannot laugh at this situation.
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That's very good.bigjohnowls said:
Prawn COCKtail?TheScreamingEagles said:I'm not sure if this is an urban myth or not.
But didn't one teenage guy and his girlfriend use a crisp packet and a rubber band as a condom.
I just hope they didn't use a packet of salt and vinegar.
Glad to see my sense of humour has rubbed off on you.0 -
Well quite: it's not very emotionally or psychologically astute, is it?TheScreamingEagles said:
Islam forbades drinking, gambling and fornication. No wonder it is producing so many angry frustrated men.ChokinVase said:
To be fair, Islam is about 500+ years younger than Christianity, so they're pretty much on the required flight path, right?Charles said:
I was thinking that this morning when watching Wolf Hall: there was a scene when they were burning a prisoner.Paul_Mid_Beds said:
Theres quite a lot of similarities between hardline protestantism and Wahhabism. For example, the demolition of idoltatrous statues in Mecca has similar parallels to what happened in the UK and the violence and misery meted out under the leader of Britains Taliban, Oliver Cromwell, was just as savage as anything IS have done, especially in Ireland.Peter_the_Punter said:
Presbyterians then, eh?
People calling for an Islamic Reformation don't seem to understand that Wahhabism IS Islam's reformation.
We did that.
FIVE HUNDRED years ago
I'm sure you'd make a very good Grand Mufti!
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OSM..You mean Slough wasn't bombed...
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I hope you have your coat ready.bigjohnowls said:
Prawn COCKtail?TheScreamingEagles said:I'm not sure if this is an urban myth or not.
But didn't one teenage guy and his girlfriend use a crisp packet and a rubber band as a condom.
I just hope they didn't use a packet of salt and vinegar.
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Nope, they say they are planning to balance the cyclically-adjusted budget deficit by 2017-18. As current Government plans are for a surplus on this measure by then the Lib Dem's proposals allow for looser fiscal policy (just like Labour's). Whichever way you cut this the Lib Dems are closer to Labour. But some here will laud their responsibility at the same time as saying Labour would bankrupt us.Richard_Nabavi said:
Not necessarily, because the LibDems are proposing the same overall fiscal envelope as the Conservatives, whereas Labour are proposing a slower rate of deficit reduction.0 -
Not been keeping up with the threads today. Have all the tin foil hats been neatly folded and put away for the next time following the shocking revelation the Glasgow bin lorry driver was a 58 year old jock bloke?0
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There was a roar like the scream of a camel who has just seen two bricks.Peter_the_Punter said:
-- (Terry Pratchett, Soul Music)
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Judging by recent trends they seem intent on repeating all the worst mistakes of the West in the 20th century - together with the savagery of the Thirty Years War.Charles said:
I'm an optimist...they should learn from our mistakesChokinVase said:
To be fair, Islam is about 500+ years younger than Christianity, so they're pretty much on the required flight path, right?Charles said:
I was thinking that this morning when watching Wolf Hall: there was a scene when they were burning a prisoner.Paul_Mid_Beds said:
Theres quite a lot of similarities between hardline protestantism and Wahhabism. For example, the demolition of idoltatrous statues in Mecca has similar parallels to what happened in the UK and the violence and misery meted out under the leader of Britains Taliban, Oliver Cromwell, was just as savage as anything IS have done, especially in Ireland.Peter_the_Punter said:
Presbyterians then, eh?
People calling for an Islamic Reformation don't seem to understand that Wahhabism IS Islam's reformation.
We did that.
FIVE HUNDRED years ago
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Oil prices are rising.TCPoliticalBetting said:
I agree. I hope the price of oil is kept near the current levels or lower.antifrank said:Rather than following a solution that relied on arming Ukraine, I would rather bring two bricks together on Russia's economic undercarriage.
It is very sad for the nuclear disarmament movement that Ukraine, a country promised secure borders if it gave up nukes, has part of its country turned into a war zone by the Russians who signed the original promise. What country would give up nukes now? Under Greens/SNP etc we would. I like Marf's cartoon but cannot laugh at this situation.
Actually the US is the country that violated the Budapest Memorandum.
https://consortiumnews.com/2014/06/28/who-violated-ukraines-sovereignty/
As well as violationg the agreement regarding NATO expansion.0 -
This is what I am seeing and the probabilities of the Tories being towards the poorer end of the spectrum increase with every MOE poll we get.peter_from_putney said:The election models of Stephen Fisher and Others factor in a late incumbency swing to the Tories as well as a "ShyTory" factor - hence the difference between their projections and the forecasts based on the current polls.
With just 13 weeks to go before polling day, no one knows to what extent such factors will actually come into play.
My own guess is that the reasonably feasible best and worst cases from a Tory perspective might look something like this:
Party...............Tory Best Case .............Tory Worst case
Con .................... 295 ................................ 260
Lab ......................265 ................................ 300
Lib Dem ............... 20 .................................. 30
SNP ..................... 45 ................................. 27
UKIP ...................... 2 ................................. 12
N.I. ....................... 18 .................................. 18
Others .................... 5 ................................... 3
Total .................. 650 ................................ 650
Tory+LD+DUP = 323 Lab+LD = .............. 330
Still a fair amount to play for, but the above numbers appear to significantly favour Labour in terms of the various possible permutations.
Which makes the current movements on the exchanges positively weird.0 -
The thing is the Shias practise an even more severe form of Islam and they don't seem to have this issue.Cyclefree said:
Well quite: it's not very emotionally or psychologically astute, is it?TheScreamingEagles said:
Islam forbades drinking, gambling and fornication. No wonder it is producing so many angry frustrated men.ChokinVase said:
To be fair, Islam is about 500+ years younger than Christianity, so they're pretty much on the required flight path, right?Charles said:
I was thinking that this morning when watching Wolf Hall: there was a scene when they were burning a prisoner.Paul_Mid_Beds said:
Theres quite a lot of similarities between hardline protestantism and Wahhabism. For example, the demolition of idoltatrous statues in Mecca has similar parallels to what happened in the UK and the violence and misery meted out under the leader of Britains Taliban, Oliver Cromwell, was just as savage as anything IS have done, especially in Ireland.Peter_the_Punter said:
Presbyterians then, eh?
People calling for an Islamic Reformation don't seem to understand that Wahhabism IS Islam's reformation.
We did that.
FIVE HUNDRED years ago
I'm sure you'd make a very good Grand Mufti!
Anyone displaying a form of Islamic extremism, night out in an 80s club and give a bottle of JD and a Ladbrokes account with £100 of free bets.
Come on Shadsy, you can help defeat Al Qaeda and ISIL0 -
re: Ceredigion.Neil said:
I'd have the Lib Dems favourite to hold on here so I'm not sure it's great value. I wouldnt be shocked if they lost mind.Tissue_Price said:Ceredigion. Plaid 13/8 with Hills (5/4 elsewhere). Looks like value on the face of it, but I'm not up on Plaid at all. Any views?
Plaid made progress in the locals but is it enough? LD 8k majority though much smaller in 2005. How is Plaid doing in polling? Lib Dems best chance of keeping a seat in Wales.0 -
In Scotland,Labour are using the "we need to be the largest party" argument against the SNP.SLAB needs to understand,the constitution.Dave will get will get 1st go whatever the outcome just as Gordon did in 2010.He needs to get his ducks in a row with Ukip,L/Ds and DUP.Only then will Ed get a go.Therefore,SLAB's argument holds no water.Also,SLAB ,nor Lab, has ruled out any possibility of a coalition with the Tories.There must be clarity from Lab and no coalition between Labour and the Tories.Ed has to rule this out,or the SNP will have even more of an advantage.0
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Me me me me me me me me meeeeeeeeee!!!!!0
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More likely a cheesy wotsit.bigjohnowls said:
Prawn COCKtail?TheScreamingEagles said:I'm not sure if this is an urban myth or not.
But didn't one teenage guy and his girlfriend use a crisp packet and a rubber band as a condom.
I just hope they didn't use a packet of salt and vinegar.0 -
The cartoon isn't meant to be funny.TCPoliticalBetting said:
I agree. I hope the price of oil is kept near the current levels or lower.antifrank said:Rather than following a solution that relied on arming Ukraine, I would rather bring two bricks together on Russia's economic undercarriage.
It is very sad for the nuclear disarmament movement that Ukraine, a country promised secure borders if it gave up nukes, has part of its country turned into a war zone by the Russians who signed the original promise. What country would give up nukes now? Under Greens/SNP etc we would. I like Marf's cartoon but cannot laugh at this situation.
The fact is that many of those negotiating have never experienced war, let alone discussions which could result in armed conflict or the euphemistically named 'total war'. It would be a great mistake to think they know what they're doing.0 -
Call me mad but I reckon there is a touch of value about the 6-1 for Mike Crockhart to hold his seat in Edinburgh West.0
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Do you want to see Lab rule out a coalition with the Tories in the same way you'd like to see an opponent rule out ever having had intimate relations with a farm animal? ("I know he wouldnt but I want make him deny it.")volcanopete said:There must be clarity from Lab and no coalition between Labour and the Tories.Ed has to rule this out,or the SNP will have even more of an advantage.
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Many a true word said in jest, TSE.....TheScreamingEagles said:
The thing is the Shias practise an even more severe form of Islam and they don't seem to have this issue.Cyclefree said:
Well quite: it's not very emotionally or psychologically astute, is it?TheScreamingEagles said:
Islam forbades drinking, gambling and fornication. No wonder it is producing so many angry frustrated men.ChokinVase said:
To be fair, Islam is about 500+ years younger than Christianity, so they're pretty much on the required flight path, right?Charles said:
I was thinking that this morning when watching Wolf Hall: there was a scene when they were burning a prisoner.Paul_Mid_Beds said:
Theres quite a lot of similarities between hardline protestantism and Wahhabism. For example, the demolition of idoltatrous statues in Mecca has similar parallels to what happened in the UK and the violence and misery meted out under the leader of Britains Taliban, Oliver Cromwell, was just as savage as anything IS have done, especially in Ireland.Peter_the_Punter said:
Presbyterians then, eh?
People calling for an Islamic Reformation don't seem to understand that Wahhabism IS Islam's reformation.
We did that.
FIVE HUNDRED years ago
I'm sure you'd make a very good Grand Mufti!
Anyone displaying a form of Islamic extremism, night out in an 80s club and give a bottle of JD and a Ladbrokes account with £100 of free bets.
Come on Shadsy, you can help defeat Al Qaeda and ISIL0 -
68 year old Kevin Barron has been MP for Rother Valley since 1983. If he decides to retire at the last minute UKIP could be in with a serious chance IMO.0
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I thought Shias also did a lot of fighting etc. Aren't Hamas and Hezbollah and some of those militias in Iraq Shia? It all feels like the narcissism of small differences to me but civil wars are often the most bitter I realise.TheScreamingEagles said:
The thing is the Shias practise an even more severe form of Islam and they don't seem to have this issue.Cyclefree said:
Well quite: it's not very emotionally or psychologically astute, is it?TheScreamingEagles said:
Islam forbades drinking, gambling and fornication. No wonder it is producing so many angry frustrated men.ChokinVase said:
To be fair, Islam is about 500+ years younger than Christianity, so they're pretty much on the required flight path, right?Charles said:
I was thinking that this morning when watching Wolf Hall: there was a scene when they were burning a prisoner.Paul_Mid_Beds said:
Theres quite a lot of similarities between hardline protestantism and Wahhabism. For example, the demolition of idoltatrous statues in Mecca has similar parallels to what happened in the UK and the violence and misery meted out under the leader of Britains Taliban, Oliver Cromwell, was just as savage as anything IS have done, especially in Ireland.Peter_the_Punter said:
Presbyterians then, eh?
People calling for an Islamic Reformation don't seem to understand that Wahhabism IS Islam's reformation.
We did that.
FIVE HUNDRED years ago
I'm sure you'd make a very good Grand Mufti!
Anyone displaying a form of Islamic extremism, night out in an 80s club and give a bottle of JD and a Ladbrokes account with £100 of free bets.
Come on Shadsy, you can help defeat Al Qaeda and ISIL
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I agree.Pulpstar said:Call me mad but I reckon there is a touch of value about the 6-1 for Mike Crockhart to hold his seat in Edinburgh West.
Given Edinburgh voted no and the swing in Gordon being less there's a certain logic
Is a pity that Lord A didn't poll any Edunburgh seats.
On the flip side is one of those seats the SNP could win via a split unionist vote0 -
Well, it's clear as mud, but I was, perhaps unwisely, going by the BBC account:Neil said:Nope, they say they are planning to balance the cyclically-adjusted budget deficit by 2017-18. As current Government plans are for a surplus on this measure by then the Lib Dem's proposals allow for looser fiscal policy (just like Labour's). Whichever way you cut this the Lib Dems are closer to Labour. But some here will laud their responsibility at the same time as saying Labour would bankrupt us.
[Nick Clegg] vowed to balance the books by 2017-18 - the same date as the Tories.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-31141549
and Nick Clegg himself seems to think their plans are not loose like Labour's:
Labour are no better; they appear to have learned nothing in the five years since they crashed the economy. From what it is possible to decipher of their plans, Labour will not balance the books until the end of the next parliament – that's more years of spending restraint than necessary. It means borrowing £70bn more than our plan and wasting around £4bn more on paying the interest on our debt – money that could be spent on schools and hospitals instead.
http://www.libdems.org.uk/nick_clegg_writes_light_at_the_end_of_the_tunnel
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I know you didn't.isam said:
I didn't mean there would be a vote on each case! Is that what you thought I meant?Charles said:
It's a philosophical position: the state is, and can only ever be, the agent of its citizens.isam said:
Well we do disagree, but that's fair enough
The state does have that position of authority if people vote for it.. . the state is only an embodiment of the will of the people (Levithian is it?)
I would have a referendum on things like this, but have the status quo favoured so the vote for change has to win 60/40
Also I don't really see why its ok for the state to have the power to lock someone up until they die, but not to castrate paedophiles or torture/execute convicted terrorists. or why the punishment for murderers/paedophiles should be the same as for robbers/tax avoiders only for longer
If someone refuses to abide by the rules that society sets, then it is fair to exclude someone from the benefits of society. This can either be for a period of time or permanently. Thus, for example, I'm sure you would be a fan of deporting foreign criminals - which would be entirely consistent with this philosophical position.
But I'm very uncomfortable with the idea of people (whether 51% or 60%) saying "we don't like X, therefore we are going to vote to injury/kill him".
I meant a referendum on whether we could use castration/execution as punishment in any circumstances, and if 60% said yes, then judges could be.. the judges... of when it is necessary
But in principle a referendum on saying "hang all murderers" is the same as one on "hang all gingers". A majority of individuals in society don't have the right to persecute other individuals (no matter how much they deserve it). All they can do is exclude them from society.
So, for instance, if society voted that all gingers should be deported/exiled/imprisoned then it would be legitimate. Even if it wouldn't be a society that I wanted to live in. But if they decided that all gingers should be executed then it wouldn't be legitimate because they don't have the right to claim that power over others.0 -
There is a valid argument that if the SNP do very, very well then Labour could be so far from a majority that they'd find it hard to run an effective minority government. It's difficult to get that into a snappy soundbite though.volcanopete said:In Scotland,Labour are using the "we need to be the largest party" argument against the SNP.SLAB needs to understand,the constitution.Dave will get will get 1st go whatever the outcome just as Gordon did in 2010.He needs to get his ducks in a row with Ukip,L/Ds and DUP.Only then will Ed get a go.Therefore,SLAB's argument holds no water.Also,SLAB ,nor Lab, has ruled out any possibility of a coalition with the Tories.There must be clarity from Lab and no coalition between Labour and the Tories.Ed has to rule this out,or the SNP will have even more of an advantage.
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Of course it is worth reminding oneself what happened the last time France, Germany and Russia organised a ceasefire.
At the behest of the US Kiev violated it.
https://consortiumnews.com/2014/07/02/the-risk-of-a-ukraine-bloodbath/
The rebels are right to be suspicious, I hope they push home their military advances further before halting this time.0 -
They do. But they've not done stuff as horrific as ISIL have.Cyclefree said:
I thought Shias also did a lot of fighting etc. Aren't Hamas and Hezbollah and some of those militias in Iraq Shia? It all feels like the narcissism of small differences to me but civil wars are often the most bitter I realise.TheScreamingEagles said:
The thing is the Shias practise an even more severe form of Islam and they don't seem to have this issue.Cyclefree said:
Well quite: it's not very emotionally or psychologically astute, is it?TheScreamingEagles said:
Islam forbades drinking, gambling and fornication. No wonder it is producing so many angry frustrated men.ChokinVase said:
To be fair, Islam is about 500+ years younger than Christianity, so they're pretty much on the required flight path, right?Charles said:
I was thinking that this morning when watching Wolf Hall: there was a scene when they were burning a prisoner.Paul_Mid_Beds said:
Theres quite a lot of similarities between hardline protestantism and Wahhabism. For example, the demolition of idoltatrous statues in Mecca has similar parallels to what happened in the UK and the violence and misery meted out under the leader of Britains Taliban, Oliver Cromwell, was just as savage as anything IS have done, especially in Ireland.Peter_the_Punter said:
Presbyterians then, eh?
People calling for an Islamic Reformation don't seem to understand that Wahhabism IS Islam's reformation.
We did that.
FIVE HUNDRED years ago
I'm sure you'd make a very good Grand Mufti!
Anyone displaying a form of Islamic extremism, night out in an 80s club and give a bottle of JD and a Ladbrokes account with £100 of free bets.
Come on Shadsy, you can help defeat Al Qaeda and ISIL0 -
On this Site, condemnation of UK support of US policy in Iraq has been pretty much universal.Cyclefree said:
Judging by recent trends they seem intent on repeating all the worst mistakes of the West in the 20th century - together with the savagery of the Thirty Years War.Charles said:
I'm an optimist...they should learn from our mistakesChokinVase said:
To be fair, Islam is about 500+ years younger than Christianity, so they're pretty much on the required flight path, right?Charles said:
I was thinking that this morning when watching Wolf Hall: there was a scene when they were burning a prisoner.Paul_Mid_Beds said:
Theres quite a lot of similarities between hardline protestantism and Wahhabism. For example, the demolition of idoltatrous statues in Mecca has similar parallels to what happened in the UK and the violence and misery meted out under the leader of Britains Taliban, Oliver Cromwell, was just as savage as anything IS have done, especially in Ireland.Peter_the_Punter said:
Presbyterians then, eh?
People calling for an Islamic Reformation don't seem to understand that Wahhabism IS Islam's reformation.
We did that.
FIVE HUNDRED years ago
Are we now to condone UK support of US policy in the Ukraine?0 -
Marf spot on this evening.
I did mention that the Ukraine theatre was hotting up this this morning, but no-one was paying attention. However much PB distain, this could end up very serious, as Obama seems itching to tangle with Putin, while hoping to avoid getting in deeper with IS.0 -
Ok, you're mad.Pulpstar said:Call me mad but I reckon there is a touch of value about the 6-1 for Mike Crockhart to hold his seat in Edinburgh West.
But it's the kind of seat where the SNP surge might actually benefit them as the SNP ceiling may be below what the Lib Dems get (with potential Tory tactical support) while at the same time denying Lab the swing it needs to knock it off.
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Where are all the US troops that are on leave and killing Ukraine state soldiers and saying that the local town wants to be part of the USA? Must have missed that report. IF there really was any breach of soverignty, even the spurious example you quote, that does not entitle Russia to annex Ukrainian territory. Please do not bother responding as you watch too much Russia Today or are funded by Putin's folk.FalseFlag said:
Oil prices are rising.TCPoliticalBetting said:
I agree. I hope the price of oil is kept near the current levels or lower.antifrank said:Rather than following a solution that relied on arming Ukraine, I would rather bring two bricks together on Russia's economic undercarriage.
It is very sad for the nuclear disarmament movement that Ukraine, a country promised secure borders if it gave up nukes, has part of its country turned into a war zone by the Russians who signed the original promise. What country would give up nukes now? Under Greens/SNP etc we would. I like Marf's cartoon but cannot laugh at this situation.
Actually the US is the country that violated the Budapest Memorandum.
https://consortiumnews.com/2014/06/28/who-violated-ukraines-sovereignty/
As well as violationg the agreement regarding NATO expansion.
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Have to go out now but I really think bringing hair colour into it as a comparison with murderers is quite silly.. you are comparing something one cant change with something one decides to doCharles said:
I know you didn't.isam said:
I didn't mean there would be a vote on each case! Is that what you thought I meant?Charles said:
It's a philosophical position: the state is, and can only ever be, the agent of its citizens.isam said:
Well we do disagree, but that's fair enough
The state does have that position of authority if people vote for it.. . the state is only an embodiment of the will of the people (Levithian is it?)
I would have a referendum on things like this, but have the status quo favoured so the vote for change has to win 60/40
Also I don't really see why its ok for the state to have the power to lock someone up until they die, but not to castrate paedophiles or torture/execute convicted terrorists. or why the punishment for murderers/paedophiles should be the same as for robbers/tax avoiders only for longer
If someone refuses to abide by the rules that society sets, then it is fair to exclude someone from the benefits of society. This can either be for a period of time or permanently. Thus, for example, I'm sure you would be a fan of deporting foreign criminals - which would be entirely consistent with this philosophical position.
But I'm very uncomfortable with the idea of people (whether 51% or 60%) saying "we don't like X, therefore we are going to vote to injury/kill him".
I meant a referendum on whether we could use castration/execution as punishment in any circumstances, and if 60% said yes, then judges could be.. the judges... of when it is necessary
But in principle a referendum on saying "hang all murderers" is the same as one on "hang all gingers". A majority of individuals in society don't have the right to persecute other individuals (no matter how much they deserve it). All they can do is exclude them from society.
So, for instance, if society voted that all gingers should be deported/exiled/imprisoned then it would be legitimate. Even if it wouldn't be a society that I wanted to live in. But if they decided that all gingers should be executed then it wouldn't be legitimate because they don't have the right to claim that power over others.
And the referendum wouldn't be on whether to "hang all murderers" or not, it would be on whether or not a judge could use the death sentence for certain types of murder as a last resort in extreme circumstances.. so that point is rather silly too
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Mormonism forbids all those too, we haven't got the same issues.TheScreamingEagles said:
Islam forbades drinking, gambling and fornication. No wonder it is producing so many angry frustrated men.ChokinVase said:
To be fair, Islam is about 500+ years younger than Christianity, so they're pretty much on the required flight path, right?Charles said:
I was thinking that this morning when watching Wolf Hall: there was a scene when they were burning a prisoner.Paul_Mid_Beds said:
Theres quite a lot of similarities between hardline protestantism and Wahhabism. For example, the demolition of idoltatrous statues in Mecca has similar parallels to what happened in the UK and the violence and misery meted out under the leader of Britains Taliban, Oliver Cromwell, was just as savage as anything IS have done, especially in Ireland.Peter_the_Punter said:
Presbyterians then, eh?
People calling for an Islamic Reformation don't seem to understand that Wahhabism IS Islam's reformation.
We did that.
FIVE HUNDRED years ago
I did/do all of the above and I'm happy.
They should make me the Grand Mufti of Islam.
I'd have proper reformation within a decade.
Then again we did give the world Twilight0 -
@DaymarLaw @ernieharding59 We stay in the EU; there won't be an England! pic.twitter.com/bedEG7KKhb
— Alan Ashwood (@AlanAshwood) February 5, 20150 -
That's very poor from the BBC. The Tories are targeting an *overall* budget surplus by then whereas the Lib Dems only plan to balance the *current* budget (just like Labour).Richard_Nabavi said:
Well, it's clear as mud, but I was, perhaps unwisely, going by the BBC account:Neil said:Nope, they say they are planning to balance the cyclically-adjusted budget deficit by 2017-18. As current Government plans are for a surplus on this measure by then the Lib Dem's proposals allow for looser fiscal policy (just like Labour's). Whichever way you cut this the Lib Dems are closer to Labour. But some here will laud their responsibility at the same time as saying Labour would bankrupt us.
[Nick Clegg] vowed to balance the books by 2017-18 - the same date as the Tories.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-31141549
So the Lib Dems have room to be a lot looser (like Labour). Nick Clegg is just being a politician about it and he has form on this kind of thing.0 -
Only 34% No vote too.Neil said:
Ok, you're mad.Pulpstar said:Call me mad but I reckon there is a touch of value about the 6-1 for Mike Crockhart to hold his seat in Edinburgh West.
But it's the kind of seat where the SNP surge might actually benefit them as the SNP ceiling may be below what the Lib Dems get (with potential Tory tactical support) while at the same time denying Lab the swing it needs to knock it off.
I think it's a damn sight better than the 9-4 Labour there anyway.0 -
I enjoyed the Twilight books.Freggles said:
Mormonism forbids all those too, we haven't got the same issues.TheScreamingEagles said:
Islam forbades drinking, gambling and fornication. No wonder it is producing so many angry frustrated men.ChokinVase said:
To be fair, Islam is about 500+ years younger than Christianity, so they're pretty much on the required flight path, right?Charles said:
I was thinking that this morning when watching Wolf Hall: there was a scene when they were burning a prisoner.Paul_Mid_Beds said:
Theres quite a lot of similarities between hardline protestantism and Wahhabism. For example, the demolition of idoltatrous statues in Mecca has similar parallels to what happened in the UK and the violence and misery meted out under the leader of Britains Taliban, Oliver Cromwell, was just as savage as anything IS have done, especially in Ireland.Peter_the_Punter said:
Presbyterians then, eh?
People calling for an Islamic Reformation don't seem to understand that Wahhabism IS Islam's reformation.
We did that.
FIVE HUNDRED years ago
I did/do all of the above and I'm happy.
They should make me the Grand Mufti of Islam.
I'd have proper reformation within a decade.
Then again we did give the world Twilight
One girl's choice between a life of necrophilia or a life of bestiality.0 -
Right.Neil said:That's very poor from the BBC. The Tories are targeting an *overall* budget surplus by then whereas the Lib Dems only plan to balance the *current* budget (just like Labour).
So the Lib Dems have room to be a lot looser (like Labour). Nick Clegg is just being a politician about it and he has form on this kind of thing.
Well, I'll vote Conservative anyway!
Edit: No, I'm still confused about what the LibDems are proposing. Surely when Nick Clegg says they'd borrow £70bn less than Labour in the next parliament, that is represented by the difference between eliminating the structural deficit and total deficit, for the last two years of the parliament.
Also he said:
in the second half of the parliament we will be getting the national debt down
i.e a budget surplus, like the Conservatives, no?0 -
I've just realised for the first time where George Lucas got the Grand Moff term from. I never connected the two in my mind before, but I bet that's the inspiration.TheScreamingEagles said:...
They should make me the Grand Mufti of Islam.
I'd have proper reformation within a decade.
Yeah, would be nice. Instead they seem to want to replicate them, with extra flourishes of gory detail.Charles said:
I'm an optimist...they should learn from our mistakes
The real solution IMO is long-term and nothing to do with war or religion. Simply continue developing energy independence sufficiently to starve these parts of the world of money & geopolitical relevance. Without easy access to finance from outside interference as part of a wider balance of power, they'll naturally gravitate to the realisation that if they want to maintain a thriving state in a modern & interdependent world, you need to stick to some very basic tenets of civilised behavior.
I continue to have great hopes for the ITER project in this regard, and find it quite an optimistic thought that it's the only project I can think of that has the EU, USA, India, Japan, China, Russia & South Korea all working merrily together. Largely because all of them dearly want to be able to tell the Middle East, Gulf and North Africa to get lost. Would solve a lot of the world's problems.0 -
1/100 landed. I had that in a fourfold with BenM voting Labour, nigel4England voting UKIP and theuniondivvie voting SNP. Didn't dare risk adding OGH voting LD.Richard_Nabavi said:
Right.Neil said:That's very poor from the BBC. The Tories are targeting an *overall* budget surplus by then whereas the Lib Dems only plan to balance the *current* budget (just like Labour).
So the Lib Dems have room to be a lot looser (like Labour). Nick Clegg is just being a politician about it and he has form on this kind of thing.
Well, I'll vote Conservative anyway!0 -
I definitely cant convince you to vote Green?Richard_Nabavi said:
Right.Neil said:That's very poor from the BBC. The Tories are targeting an *overall* budget surplus by then whereas the Lib Dems only plan to balance the *current* budget (just like Labour).
So the Lib Dems have room to be a lot looser (like Labour). Nick Clegg is just being a politician about it and he has form on this kind of thing.
Well, I'll vote Conservative anyway!
0 -
Taking the mean of my best and worst case scenarios for the Tories produces the following:DavidL said:
This is what I am seeing and the probabilities of the Tories being towards the poorer end of the spectrum increase with every MOE poll we get.peter_from_putney said:The election models of Stephen Fisher and Others factor in a late incumbency swing to the Tories as well as a "ShyTory" factor - hence the difference between their projections and the forecasts based on the current polls.
With just 13 weeks to go before polling day, no one knows to what extent such factors will actually come into play.
My own guess is that the reasonably feasible best and worst cases from a Tory perspective might look something like this:
Party...............Tory Best Case .............Tory Worst case
Con .................... 295 ................................ 260
Lab ......................265 ................................ 300
Lib Dem ............... 20 .................................. 30
SNP ..................... 45 ................................. 27
UKIP ...................... 2 ................................. 12
N.I. ....................... 18 .................................. 18
Others .................... 5 ................................... 3
Total .................. 650 ................................ 650
Tory+LD+DUP = 323 Lab+LD = .............. 330
Still a fair amount to play for, but the above numbers appear to significantly favour Labour in terms of the various possible permutations.
Which makes the current movements on the exchanges positively weird.
Con ......... 277
Lab ......... 283
LD ............ 25
SNP .......... 36
UKIP .......... 7
N.I. ........... 18
Others ........ 4
Total ....... 650
The above bear an uncanny resemblance to Sporting's current mid-spread prices.
0 -
There is confusion about balancing the deficit.
Labour and Lib dems seem to be talking about balancing the structural deficit (excluding infrastructure investment), the Lib dems sooner than Labour (and hence the accumulated debt would be lower)
Conservatives talk about balancing the deficit (including infrastructure spending) and then going further to a surplus of government receipts over spending in the next parliament.
Given that most MPs still don't understand the difference between the deficit (about £100bn pa) and the debt (approaching £1.5 trillion) I doubt they will be able to explain their policy on the doorstep.0 -
That because Mormon teenagers head down the freeway to get married in Vegas, shag, then get divorced in the same 24 hours.Freggles said:
Mormonism forbids all those too, we haven't got the same issues.TheScreamingEagles said:
Islam forbades drinking, gambling and fornication. No wonder it is producing so many angry frustrated men.ChokinVase said:
To be fair, Islam is about 500+ years younger than Christianity, so they're pretty much on the required flight path, right?Charles said:
I was thinking that this morning when watching Wolf Hall: there was a scene when they were burning a prisoner.Paul_Mid_Beds said:
Theres quite a lot of similarities between hardline protestantism and Wahhabism. For example, the demolition of idoltatrous statues in Mecca has similar parallels to what happened in the UK and the violence and misery meted out under the leader of Britains Taliban, Oliver Cromwell, was just as savage as anything IS have done, especially in Ireland.Peter_the_Punter said:
Presbyterians then, eh?
People calling for an Islamic Reformation don't seem to understand that Wahhabism IS Islam's reformation.
We did that.
FIVE HUNDRED years ago
I did/do all of the above and I'm happy.
They should make me the Grand Mufti of Islam.
I'd have proper reformation within a decade.
Then again we did give the world Twilight
Middle East needs a Vegas.0 -
There is a remarkable tendency to some extent of, due to ills past and present committed by the West, to believe we should buy fully into what the Russians are saying and ignore what they are doing.TCPoliticalBetting said:
IF there really was any breach of soverignty, even the spurious example you quote, that does not entitle Russia to annex Ukrainian territory.FalseFlag said:
Oil prices are rising.TCPoliticalBetting said:
I agree. I hope the price of oil is kept near the current levels or lower.antifrank said:Rather than following a solution that relied on arming Ukraine, I would rather bring two bricks together on Russia's economic undercarriage.
It is very sad for the nuclear disarmament movement that Ukraine, a country promised secure borders if it gave up nukes, has part of its country turned into a war zone by the Russians who signed the original promise. What country would give up nukes now? Under Greens/SNP etc we would. I like Marf's cartoon but cannot laugh at this situation.
Actually the US is the country that violated the Budapest Memorandum.
https://consortiumnews.com/2014/06/28/who-violated-ukraines-sovereignty/
As well as violationg the agreement regarding NATO expansion.
I might. Oh I don't ascribe to their policies, and I don't generally have a desire to 'protest vote', but my vote won't affect the outcome in my seat anyway, and the idea of a Green Surge actually happening is pretty funny.Neil said:
I definitely cant convince you to vote Green?Richard_Nabavi said:
Right.Neil said:That's very poor from the BBC. The Tories are targeting an *overall* budget surplus by then whereas the Lib Dems only plan to balance the *current* budget (just like Labour).
So the Lib Dems have room to be a lot looser (like Labour). Nick Clegg is just being a politician about it and he has form on this kind of thing.
Well, I'll vote Conservative anyway!
0 -
In all seriousness, I was talking to a couple of friends who are lifelong Liberal/LibDem supporters, and party members, who to my great surprise said they were probably not going to vote LibDem in 2015, "because Nick Clegg has lost the plot". And these are not the lefty, Labour-lite variety of LibDem, more from the classic Liberal Party tradition.Tissue_Price said:1/100 landed. I had that in a fourfold with BenM voting Labour, nigel4England voting UKIP and theuniondivvie voting SNP. Didn't dare risk adding OGH voting LD.
0 -
Methodism also bans drinking, gambling and fornication but I don;t remember any head chopping or stonings going on at the local Methodist church last Sunday.Cyclefree said:
Well quite: it's not very emotionally or psychologically astute, is it?TheScreamingEagles said:
Islam forbades drinking, gambling and fornication. No wonder it is producing so many angry frustrated men.ChokinVase said:
To be fair, Islam is about 500+ years younger than Christianity, so they're pretty much on the required flight path, right?Charles said:
I was thinking that this morning when watching Wolf Hall: there was a scene when they were burning a prisoner.Paul_Mid_Beds said:
Theres quite a lot of similarities between hardline protestantism and Wahhabism. For example, the demolition of idoltatrous statues in Mecca has similar parallels to what happened in the UK and the violence and misery meted out under the leader of Britains Taliban, Oliver Cromwell, was just as savage as anything IS have done, especially in Ireland.Peter_the_Punter said:
Presbyterians then, eh?
People calling for an Islamic Reformation don't seem to understand that Wahhabism IS Islam's reformation.
We did that.
FIVE HUNDRED years ago
I'm sure you'd make a very good Grand Mufti!0 -
Labour is going to be piling up it's votes in places where it won't win whereas the Lib Dems are going to be saving them all for their seats.TheScreamingEagles said:
I agree.Pulpstar said:Call me mad but I reckon there is a touch of value about the 6-1 for Mike Crockhart to hold his seat in Edinburgh West.
Given Edinburgh voted no and the swing in Gordon being less there's a certain logic
Is a pity that Lord A didn't poll any Edunburgh seats.
On the flip side is one of those seats the SNP could win via a split unionist vote
Anyway Jo Swinson had a http://www.eastdunbarton.gov.uk/content/council_and_government/councillors_politics_elections/elections_and_voting/sir_2014.aspx
91% turnout, 43% Yes vote in her seat. That's alot of "Yes" votes.
Mike Crockart has a 34% Yes vote in his seat, I don't know what the turnout is but its less than 91% I think.
Jo Swinson is 5-2 to hold her seat.
Why are Mike's odds so much longer than Jo's ?0 -
Not this time, although there is a vegetarian restaurant that I'm thinking of trying out.Neil said:
I definitely cant convince you to vote Green?0 -
A cynic might reply "Yet". I will only say that I'm quite certain I wouldn't want to live in a Shia-dominated state anymore than I'd want to live under IS.TheScreamingEagles said:
They do. But they've not done stuff as horrific as ISIL have.Cyclefree said:
I thought Shias also did a lot of fighting etc. Aren't Hamas and Hezbollah and some of those militias in Iraq Shia? It all feels like the narcissism of small differences to me but civil wars are often the most bitter I realise.TheScreamingEagles said:
The thing is the Shias practise an even more severe form of Islam and they don't seem to have this issue.Cyclefree said:
Well quite: it's not very emotionally or psychologically astute, is it?TheScreamingEagles said:
Islam forbades drinking, gambling and fornication. No wonder it is producing so many angry frustrated men.ChokinVase said:
To be fair, Islam is about 500+ years younger than Christianity, so they're pretty much on the required flight path, right?Charles said:
I was thinking that this morning when watching Wolf Hall: there was a scene when they were burning a prisoner.Paul_Mid_Beds said:
Theres quite a lot of similarities between hardline protestantism and Wahhabism. For example, the demolition of idoltatrous statues in Mecca has similar parallels to what happened in the UK and the violence and misery meted out under the leader of Britains Taliban, Oliver Cromwell, was just as savage as anything IS have done, especially in Ireland.Peter_the_Punter said:
Presbyterians then, eh?
People calling for an Islamic Reformation don't seem to understand that Wahhabism IS Islam's reformation.
We did that.
FIVE HUNDRED years ago
I'm sure you'd make a very good Grand Mufti!
Anyone displaying a form of Islamic extremism, night out in an 80s club and give a bottle of JD and a Ladbrokes account with £100 of free bets.
Come on Shadsy, you can help defeat Al Qaeda and ISIL
0 -
Now now, I only said 'might' - a decent independent and any hope your people have is gone for instance - but it's been such a crazy parliament, I cannot deny considering it, if for silly reasons, which as you point out, the candidate would not care (if a Green candidate stands anyway - they've only stood once in the last 5 elections)Neil said:@kle4 - good man, we dont care why you vote for us so long as you do!
0 -
I have a theory that many people are considering voting for the 'minor' parties, UKIP and Green, because they have seen that the Lib Dems have been in a coalition government and think that UKIP and the Greens could be also.
In practice the major (in Scotland) SNP party might get enough seats to join a coalition but UKIP and Greens will have only insignificant numbers of MPs or MP. Once people realise this after the election, their support for UKIP and Greens will fade away.
Lib Dems will need to maintain a decent number of MPs, 30 plus say, to avoid the same fate.0 -
just cooked a curry with tofu, I think I'll try chicken next time !Richard_Nabavi said:
Not this time, although there is a vegetarian restaurant that I'm thinking of trying out.Neil said:
I definitely cant convince you to vote Green?0 -
Maybe you'd like to contribute to the crowdfunder intended to raise the money to have a full slate in at least England and Wales?kle4 said:
Now now, I only said 'might' - a decent independent and any hope your people have is gone for instance - but it's been such a crazy parliament, I cannot deny considering it, if for silly reasons, which as you point out, the candidate would not care (if a Green candidate stands anyway - they've only stood once in the last 5 elections)Neil said:@kle4 - good man, we dont care why you vote for us so long as you do!
http://www.crowdfunder.co.uk/green-party-in-your-seat/?af=egreens0 -
Yeah, well some churches are more fun than others. Our local has all that, plus bingo on a Thursday.Paul_Mid_Beds said:
Methodism also bans drinking, gambling and fornication but I don;t remember any head chopping or stonings going on at the local Methodist church last Sunday.Cyclefree said:
Well quite: it's not very emotionally or psychologically astute, is it?TheScreamingEagles said:
Islam forbades drinking, gambling and fornication. No wonder it is producing so many angry frustrated men.ChokinVase said:
To be fair, Islam is about 500+ years younger than Christianity, so they're pretty much on the required flight path, right?Charles said:
I was thinking that this morning when watching Wolf Hall: there was a scene when they were burning a prisoner.Paul_Mid_Beds said:
Theres quite a lot of similarities between hardline protestantism and Wahhabism. For example, the demolition of idoltatrous statues in Mecca has similar parallels to what happened in the UK and the violence and misery meted out under the leader of Britains Taliban, Oliver Cromwell, was just as savage as anything IS have done, especially in Ireland.Peter_the_Punter said:
Presbyterians then, eh?
People calling for an Islamic Reformation don't seem to understand that Wahhabism IS Islam's reformation.
We did that.
FIVE HUNDRED years ago
I'm sure you'd make a very good Grand Mufti!0 -
That could well be because you are both right.peter_from_putney said:
Taking the mean of my best and worst case scenarios for the Tories produces the following:DavidL said:
This is what I am seeing and the probabilities of the Tories being towards the poorer end of the spectrum increase with every MOE poll we get.peter_from_putney said:The election models of Stephen Fisher and Others factor in a late incumbency swing to the Tories as well as a "ShyTory" factor - hence the difference between their projections and the forecasts based on the current polls.
With just 13 weeks to go before polling day, no one knows to what extent such factors will actually come into play.
My own guess is that the reasonably feasible best and worst cases from a Tory perspective might look something like this:
Party...............Tory Best Case .............Tory Worst case
Con .................... 295 ................................ 260
Lab ......................265 ................................ 300
Lib Dem ............... 20 .................................. 30
SNP ..................... 45 ................................. 27
UKIP ...................... 2 ................................. 12
N.I. ....................... 18 .................................. 18
Others .................... 5 ................................... 3
Total .................. 650 ................................ 650
Tory+LD+DUP = 323 Lab+LD = .............. 330
Still a fair amount to play for, but the above numbers appear to significantly favour Labour in terms of the various possible permutations.
Which makes the current movements on the exchanges positively weird.
Con ......... 277
Lab ......... 283
LD ............ 25
SNP .......... 36
UKIP .......... 7
N.I. ........... 18
Others ........ 4
Total ....... 650
The above bear an uncanny resemblance to Sporting's current mid-spread prices.0 -
For the mad among us i would suggest the Tories at 16-1 is the tempting bet.Pulpstar said:
Only 34% No vote too.Neil said:
Ok, you're mad.Pulpstar said:Call me mad but I reckon there is a touch of value about the 6-1 for Mike Crockhart to hold his seat in Edinburgh West.
But it's the kind of seat where the SNP surge might actually benefit them as the SNP ceiling may be below what the Lib Dems get (with potential Tory tactical support) while at the same time denying Lab the swing it needs to knock it off.
I think it's a damn sight better than the 9-4 Labour there anyway.
Spent my first 23years there,always had a Tory MP, mum stilling chugging along there in her 80s so i remain familiar with the constituency
LDs have very long track record in the constituency eroding Tory majority then taking the seat however i cannot see them holding in the face of their polling implosion in Scotland.Tories holding steady in Scotland. It is a 4 way marginal.If i had to dig in my sporan and make a bet then the Tories are better value than LDs.0 -
Foreign mercenaries, CIA advisors, arms, money and diplomatic support.TCPoliticalBetting said:
Where are all the US troops that are on leave and killing Ukraine state soldiers and saying that the local town wants to be part of the USA? Must have missed that report. IF there really was any breach of soverignty, even the spurious example you quote, that does not entitle Russia to annex Ukrainian territory. Please do not bother responding as you watch too much Russia Today or are funded by Putin's folk.FalseFlag said:
Oil prices are rising.TCPoliticalBetting said:
I agree. I hope the price of oil is kept near the current levels or lower.antifrank said:Rather than following a solution that relied on arming Ukraine, I would rather bring two bricks together on Russia's economic undercarriage.
It is very sad for the nuclear disarmament movement that Ukraine, a country promised secure borders if it gave up nukes, has part of its country turned into a war zone by the Russians who signed the original promise. What country would give up nukes now? Under Greens/SNP etc we would. I like Marf's cartoon but cannot laugh at this situation.
Actually the US is the country that violated the Budapest Memorandum.
https://consortiumnews.com/2014/06/28/who-violated-ukraines-sovereignty/
As well as violationg the agreement regarding NATO expansion.
It wasn't Yanukovich who ordered the army in and it isn't civilians in Lvov being murdered.0 -
The cartels in Mexico are Catholic, they still love a decapitation.0
-
Look what website I found:Sunil_Prasannan said:Nice cartoon, Marf!
Ukraine if you want to. The lady's NOT for Kraining!
http://www.tns-bmrb.co.uk/ 0 -
It was hair colour as opposed to race or religion!isam said:
Have to go out now but I really think bringing hair colour into it as a comparison with murderers is quite silly.. you are comparing something one cant change with something one decides to do
And the referendum wouldn't be on whether to "hang all murderers" or not, it would be on whether or not a judge could use the death sentence for certain types of murder as a last resort in extreme circumstances.. so that point is rather silly too
The fundamental question is the same: can the State (whether with popular support or not) kill its own citizens. My view is not.0 -
I'm on Mike Crockart from before Christmas at 6/1. I put my logic up on this:Pulpstar said:
Only 34% No vote too.Neil said:
Ok, you're mad.Pulpstar said:Call me mad but I reckon there is a touch of value about the 6-1 for Mike Crockhart to hold his seat in Edinburgh West.
But it's the kind of seat where the SNP surge might actually benefit them as the SNP ceiling may be below what the Lib Dems get (with potential Tory tactical support) while at the same time denying Lab the swing it needs to knock it off.
I think it's a damn sight better than the 9-4 Labour there anyway.
http://newstonoone.blogspot.co.uk/2014/12/testing-boundaries-3-lib-dems-vs-all.html
"Could Michael Crockart hold Edinburgh West? He's a first termer, so he should get some form of incumbency boost, and he may act as the rallying point for Conservatives or unionist Labour supporters who want to stop the SNP. It's a seat that the Lib Dems have held since 1997 and in 2005 they held it with 50% of the vote. It seems unlikely that they can hold on but it's a 6/1 shot. I've put a small amount on this too."0 -
Not a chance. 1600-1 more likely.dobbin said:
For the mad among us i would suggest the Tories at 16-1 is the tempting bet.Pulpstar said:
Only 34% No vote too.Neil said:
Ok, you're mad.Pulpstar said:Call me mad but I reckon there is a touch of value about the 6-1 for Mike Crockhart to hold his seat in Edinburgh West.
But it's the kind of seat where the SNP surge might actually benefit them as the SNP ceiling may be below what the Lib Dems get (with potential Tory tactical support) while at the same time denying Lab the swing it needs to knock it off.
I think it's a damn sight better than the 9-4 Labour there anyway.
Spent my first 23years there,always had a Tory MP, mum stilling chugging along there in her 80s so i remain familiar with the constituency
LDs have very long track record in the constituency eroding Tory majority then taking the seat however i cannot see them holding in the face of their polling implosion in Scotland.Tories holding steady in Scotland. It is a 4 way marginal.If i had to dig in my sporan and make a bet then the Tories are better value than LDs.0 -
That plus economic development in the region. If young men have a stake in society and a future, then they are less likely to go all nap on people.ChokinVase said:
The real solution IMO is long-term and nothing to do with war or religion. Simply continue developing energy independence sufficiently to starve these parts of the world of money & geopolitical relevance. Without easy access to finance from outside interference as part of a wider balance of power, they'll naturally gravitate to the realisation that if they want to maintain a thriving state in a modern & interdependent world, you need to stick to some very basic tenets of civilised behavior.
.
o/t
Out of curiosity I looked up "go nap". It is derived from a card game that is no longer played. Except in Southern England and Strathclyde. More evidence for the North Britain theory?0 -
Pulpstar said:
Not a chance. 1600-1 more likely.dobbin said:
For the mad among us i would suggest the Tories at 16-1 is the tempting bet.Pulpstar said:
Only 34% No vote too.Neil said:
Ok, you're mad.Pulpstar said:Call me mad but I reckon there is a touch of value about the 6-1 for Mike Crockhart to hold his seat in Edinburgh West.
But it's the kind of seat where the SNP surge might actually benefit them as the SNP ceiling may be below what the Lib Dems get (with potential Tory tactical support) while at the same time denying Lab the swing it needs to knock it off.
I think it's a damn sight better than the 9-4 Labour there anyway.
Spent my first 23years there,always had a Tory MP, mum stilling chugging along there in her 80s so i remain familiar with the constituency
LDs have very long track record in the constituency eroding Tory majority then taking the seat however i cannot see them holding in the face of their polling implosion in Scotland.Tories holding steady in Scotland. It is a 4 way marginal.If i had to dig in my sporan and make a bet then the Tories are better value than LDs.0 -
Rather less than 500 years ago actually:Charles said:
I was thinking that this morning when watching Wolf Hall: there was a scene when they were burning a prisoner.Paul_Mid_Beds said:
Theres quite a lot of similarities between hardline protestantism and Wahhabism. For example, the demolition of idoltatrous statues in Mecca has similar parallels to what happened in the UK and the violence and misery meted out under the leader of Britains Taliban, Oliver Cromwell, was just as savage as anything IS have done, especially in Ireland.Peter_the_Punter said:
Presbyterians then, eh?
People calling for an Islamic Reformation don't seem to understand that Wahhabism IS Islam's reformation.
We did that.
FIVE HUNDRED years ago
"Such was the case when James Irwin was lynched on January 31, 1930. Irwin was accused of the murder of a white girl in the town of Ocilla, Georgia. Taken into custody by a rampaging mob, his fingers and toes were cut off, his teeth pulled out by pliers and finally he was castrated. It still wasn't enough. Irwin was then burned alive in front of hundreds of onlookers (Brundage, p. 42). No one was ever punished for this barbaric killing. Black victims were hacked to death, dragged behind cars, burned, beaten, whipped, sometimes shot thousands of times, mutilated; the savagery was astonishing."
http://www.crimelibrary.com/notorious_murders/mass/lynching/lynching_2.html
The last person to be burnt alive in England was Catherine Hayes in 1726, for the murder of her husband
"The fuel being placed round her, and lighted with a torch, she begg’d for the sake of Jesus, to be strangled first: whereupon the Executioner drew tight the halter, but the flame coming to his hand in the space of a second, he let it go, when she gave three dreadful shrieks; but the flames taking her on all sides, she was heard no more; and the Executioner throwing a piece of timber into the Fire, it broke her skull, when her brains came plentifully out; and in about an hour more she was entirely reduced to ashes"
The last person to be burnt alive in Europe was Johannes Thomas who had been conviceted of Arson on 13th July 1804:
"Some feet above the actual pyre, attached to a stake, a wooden chamber had been constructed, into which the delinquent was placed. Pipes or chimneys, filled with sulphuric material led up to the chamber, and that was first lit, so that Thomas died from inhaling the sulphuric smoke, rather than being strictly burnt alive, before his body was consumed by the general fire. Some 20.000 people had gathered to watch Thomas' execution"
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Death_by_burning0 -
Can i have a pound on that?! AntiFrank you are the man but you are going to lose a fraction of your richly deserved SNP plunder backing LDs there.dobbin said:Pulpstar said:
Not a chance. 1600-1 more likely.dobbin said:
For the mad among us i would suggest the Tories at 16-1 is the tempting bet.Pulpstar said:
Only 34% No vote too.Neil said:
Ok, you're mad.Pulpstar said:Call me mad but I reckon there is a touch of value about the 6-1 for Mike Crockhart to hold his seat in Edinburgh West.
But it's the kind of seat where the SNP surge might actually benefit them as the SNP ceiling may be below what the Lib Dems get (with potential Tory tactical support) while at the same time denying Lab the swing it needs to knock it off.
I think it's a damn sight better than the 9-4 Labour there anyway.
Spent my first 23years there,always had a Tory MP, mum stilling chugging along there in her 80s so i remain familiar with the constituency
LDs have very long track record in the constituency eroding Tory majority then taking the seat however i cannot see them holding in the face of their polling implosion in Scotland.Tories holding steady in Scotland. It is a 4 way marginal.If i had to dig in my sporan and make a bet then the Tories are better value than LDs.
0 -
The markets are moving towards the Tories. I know not everyone agrees with this move.
But can we identify some potential big price Tory gains? I reckon 3-way split votes with UKIP pulling voters from Labour might be the key.
To whit, any thoughts on the below? Obviously the Tories were a long way behind in the Ashcroft polling for these - I'm hypothesising subsequent Lab --> UKIP and UKIP --> Con movement.
NB these aren't tips, just a discussion starter!
Walsall North 6/1 [must be a chance Winnick stands down at the last moment]
Plymouth Moor View 8/1
Dudley North 16/1
Great Grimsby 20/10 -
Hm, I suspect the European court would have a thing or two to say about this!Paul_Mid_Beds said:
Rather less than 500 years ago actually:Charles said:
I was thinking that this morning when watching Wolf Hall: there was a scene when they were burning a prisoner.Paul_Mid_Beds said:
Theres quite a lot of similarities between hardline protestantism and Wahhabism. For example, the demolition of idoltatrous statues in Mecca has similar parallels to what happened in the UK and the violence and misery meted out under the leader of Britains Taliban, Oliver Cromwell, was just as savage as anything IS have done, especially in Ireland.Peter_the_Punter said:
Presbyterians then, eh?
People calling for an Islamic Reformation don't seem to understand that Wahhabism IS Islam's reformation.
We did that.
FIVE HUNDRED years ago
"Such was the case when James Irwin was lynched on January 31, 1930. Irwin was accused of the murder of a white girl in the town of Ocilla, Georgia. Taken into custody by a rampaging mob, his fingers and toes were cut off, his teeth pulled out by pliers and finally he was castrated. It still wasn't enough. Irwin was then burned alive in front of hundreds of onlookers (Brundage, p. 42). No one was ever punished for this barbaric killing. Black victims were hacked to death, dragged behind cars, burned, beaten, whipped, sometimes shot thousands of times, mutilated; the savagery was astonishing."
http://www.crimelibrary.com/notorious_murders/mass/lynching/lynching_2.html
The last person to be burnt alive in England was Catherine Hayes in 1726, for the murder of her husband
"The fuel being placed round her, and lighted with a torch, she begg’d for the sake of Jesus, to be strangled first: whereupon the Executioner drew tight the halter, but the flame coming to his hand in the space of a second, he let it go, when she gave three dreadful shrieks; but the flames taking her on all sides, she was heard no more; and the Executioner throwing a piece of timber into the Fire, it broke her skull, when her brains came plentifully out; and in about an hour more she was entirely reduced to ashes"
The last person to be burnt alive in Europe was Johannes Thomas who had been conviceted of Arson on 13th July 1804:
"Some feet above the actual pyre, attached to a stake, a wooden chamber had been constructed, into which the delinquent was placed. Pipes or chimneys, filled with sulphuric material led up to the chamber, and that was first lit, so that Thomas died from inhaling the sulphuric smoke, rather than being strictly burnt alive, before his body was consumed by the general fire. Some 20.000 people had gathered to watch Thomas' execution"
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Death_by_burning0 -
Hah, maybe 1600 overcooked it a bit. I just think the 16-1 is poor value that's all, I'll give you 4-1 on the Conservatives for a tenner, bet void if seat won by SNP or Labourdobbin said:
Can i have a pound on that?! AntiFrank you are the man but you are going to lose a fraction of your richly deserved SNP plunder backing LDs there.dobbin said:Pulpstar said:
Not a chance. 1600-1 more likely.dobbin said:
For the mad among us i would suggest the Tories at 16-1 is the tempting bet.Pulpstar said:
Only 34% No vote too.Neil said:
Ok, you're mad.Pulpstar said:Call me mad but I reckon there is a touch of value about the 6-1 for Mike Crockhart to hold his seat in Edinburgh West.
But it's the kind of seat where the SNP surge might actually benefit them as the SNP ceiling may be below what the Lib Dems get (with potential Tory tactical support) while at the same time denying Lab the swing it needs to knock it off.
I think it's a damn sight better than the 9-4 Labour there anyway.
Spent my first 23years there,always had a Tory MP, mum stilling chugging along there in her 80s so i remain familiar with the constituency
LDs have very long track record in the constituency eroding Tory majority then taking the seat however i cannot see them holding in the face of their polling implosion in Scotland.Tories holding steady in Scotland. It is a 4 way marginal.If i had to dig in my sporan and make a bet then the Tories are better value than LDs.
That's like getting 24-1 (I think)0 -
I've always liked the story that the Methodist church objects to pre-marital sex because it only leads to dancing.Peter_the_Punter said:
Yeah, well some churches are more fun than others. Our local has all that, plus bingo on a Thursday.Paul_Mid_Beds said:
Methodism also bans drinking, gambling and fornication but I don;t remember any head chopping or stonings going on at the local Methodist church last Sunday.
Pshaw, what's 68? I'm 65 today and as a fresh as a mildly wildblown dandelion.Pulpstar said:
PLEASE !AndyJS said:68 year old Kevin Barron has been MP for Rother Valley since 1983. If he decides to retire at the last minute UKIP could be in with a serious chance IMO.
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Happy birthday Nick! May you enjoy a long and happy retirementNickPalmer said:
I've always liked the story that the Methodist church objects to pre-marital sex because it only leads to dancing.Peter_the_Punter said:
Yeah, well some churches are more fun than others. Our local has all that, plus bingo on a Thursday.Paul_Mid_Beds said:
Methodism also bans drinking, gambling and fornication but I don;t remember any head chopping or stonings going on at the local Methodist church last Sunday.
Pshaw, what's 68? I'm 65 today and as a fresh as a mildly wildblown dandelion.Pulpstar said:
PLEASE !AndyJS said:68 year old Kevin Barron has been MP for Rother Valley since 1983. If he decides to retire at the last minute UKIP could be in with a serious chance IMO.
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About the same time, Richard Roos was *boiled* alive at Smithfield, for attempting to poison the Bishop of Rochester.Charles said:
I was thinking that this morning when watching Wolf Hall: there was a scene when they were burning a prisoner.Paul_Mid_Beds said:
Theres quite a lot of similarities between hardline protestantism and Wahhabism. For example, the demolition of idoltatrous statues in Mecca has similar parallels to what happened in the UK and the violence and misery meted out under the leader of Britains Taliban, Oliver Cromwell, was just as savage as anything IS have done, especially in Ireland.Peter_the_Punter said:
Presbyterians then, eh?
People calling for an Islamic Reformation don't seem to understand that Wahhabism IS Islam's reformation.
We did that.
FIVE HUNDRED years ago
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I suspect there may be some truth in this and some Kippers may be disappointed with the number of seats they win, especially if they get a decent share of the vote.David_Evershed said:I have a theory that many people are considering voting for the 'minor' parties, UKIP and Green, because they have seen that the Lib Dems have been in a coalition government and think that UKIP and the Greens could be also.
In practice the major (in Scotland) SNP party might get enough seats to join a coalition but UKIP and Greens will have only insignificant numbers of MPs or MP. Once people realise this after the election, their support for UKIP and Greens will fade away.
Lib Dems will need to maintain a decent number of MPs, 30 plus say, to avoid the same fate.
But the flip side is that Ukip might come a decent second in a number of constituencies. And that might help them to convince people to vote for them next time. Ultimately, however, the fate of Ukip will be determined by what the Government does over the next five years.0 -
Nick I calculate Baron leaving will earn me a hundred quid.NickPalmer said:
I've always liked the story that the Methodist church objects to pre-marital sex because it only leads to dancing.Peter_the_Punter said:
Yeah, well some churches are more fun than others. Our local has all that, plus bingo on a Thursday.Paul_Mid_Beds said:
Methodism also bans drinking, gambling and fornication but I don;t remember any head chopping or stonings going on at the local Methodist church last Sunday.
Pshaw, what's 68? I'm 65 today and as a fresh as a mildly wildblown dandelion.Pulpstar said:
PLEASE !AndyJS said:68 year old Kevin Barron has been MP for Rother Valley since 1983. If he decides to retire at the last minute UKIP could be in with a serious chance IMO.
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Happy Birthday Nick!NickPalmer said:
I've always liked the story that the Methodist church objects to pre-marital sex because it only leads to dancing.Peter_the_Punter said:
Yeah, well some churches are more fun than others. Our local has all that, plus bingo on a Thursday.Paul_Mid_Beds said:
Methodism also bans drinking, gambling and fornication but I don;t remember any head chopping or stonings going on at the local Methodist church last Sunday.
Pshaw, what's 68? I'm 65 today and as a fresh as a mildly wildblown dandelion.Pulpstar said:
PLEASE !AndyJS said:68 year old Kevin Barron has been MP for Rother Valley since 1983. If he decides to retire at the last minute UKIP could be in with a serious chance IMO.
0 -
It might be time to get on a Tory majority.
Just saying.0 -
Happy birthday, youngster.NickPalmer said:
I've always liked the story that the Methodist church objects to pre-marital sex because it only leads to dancing.Peter_the_Punter said:
Yeah, well some churches are more fun than others. Our local has all that, plus bingo on a Thursday.Paul_Mid_Beds said:
Methodism also bans drinking, gambling and fornication but I don;t remember any head chopping or stonings going on at the local Methodist church last Sunday.
Pshaw, what's 68? I'm 65 today and as a fresh as a mildly wildblown dandelion.Pulpstar said:
PLEASE !AndyJS said:68 year old Kevin Barron has been MP for Rother Valley since 1983. If he decides to retire at the last minute UKIP could be in with a serious chance IMO.
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O/T From this week's Popbitch. Apols if already posted.
>> Tea for vendetta <<
Queue-cutting with George
George Osborne is making some
big enemies in Whitehall, and
it's all because of his lack
of lunchtime etiquette.
Not only does George routinely
ignore the canteen's queuing
system completely, he also has
a bad habit of swanning in and
stealing up the last plate of
any one option – meaning those
waiting in the queue miss out.
George has done this to one
particular individual so often
that they're finding it hard
to believe that this isn't
some sort of personal vendetta.0 -
What on earth has caused that move on betfair? It sure as hell isn't a heckler.JKenny said:It might be time to get on a Tory majority.
Just saying.0 -
It's a shame that otherwise sensible posters seem to think they can get a handle on foreign affairs simply by consuming UK mainstream news media. It's like thinking you eliminate political bias by reading The Sun and The Telegraph -opinions and presentation will differ but the paradigm is totally wrong. By all means see RT as Russian state propaganda -it is. But sadly so are our news outlets. You cannot be anything but hopelessly partially informed if you consume one and not the other.0
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Last price matched 9-2 !!!Tissue_Price said:
What on earth has caused that move on betfair? It sure as hell isn't a heckler.JKenny said:It might be time to get on a Tory majority.
Just saying.0 -
@Charles
I used to play Nap, regularly.
It's a delightful little game, a derivative of whist. Solo is another, which has also declined to near extinction.0 -
http://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/market?id=1.105756340
Ed Miliband back up to 2.76/2.78 too
I'm +£73.01 Ed, -£23.94 the field on this particular market...0 -
test0 -
http://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/market?id=1.116758783
Ed at 2.3/2.42 in this market though ?!!0 -
This is bizarre, Betfair are pretty much arbable against their own markets.0
