Will tactical voting stop Reform? I’m not convinced – politicalbetting.com

System · 7:24AM

Will tactical voting stop Reform? I’m not convinced – politicalbetting.com

I think it’s fair to say that Nigel Farage is not overly popular with the denizens of PB. He also looks well set to become Prime Minister with Reform currently odds on to win most seats at the next election.

Read the full story here

Sandpit · 7:27AM

QTWTAIN.

Foxy · 7:32AM

Gareths point is a good one. I also think it rare to vote tactically to keep an unpopular government in power.

My seat is likely to be between Reform and a fairly sane Tory, but no way am I voting for a party that would likely prop up a Farage minority government.

ydoethur · 7:32AM

I agree with the conclusion, except I think Farage will spectacularly implode at some pint because he usually does.

At the moment Reform look more SDP February 1982 than Labour 1922 to me.

DavidL · 7:34AM

At the margins I think it will. It will cost them some seats. Whether that is enough seats to stop them from having a majority remains to be seen. To put it in context Reform are currently in a much stronger position than Labour were at the last election. With such a splintered electorate massive volatility in seat numbers is almost inevitable.

Sandpit · 7:34AM

ydoethur said:
I agree with the conclusion, except I think Farage will spectacularly implode at some pint because he usually does.

At the moment Reform look more SDP February 1982 than Labour 1922 to me.

That’s a good typo. I’ll take pint number 8.

Taz · 7:41AM

ydoethur said:
I agree with the conclusion, except I think Farage will spectacularly implode at some pint because he usually does.

At the moment Reform look more SDP February 1982 than Labour 1922 to me.

I absolutely agree with this. His track record says this will inevitably happen.

So we are stuck with the same old failed three main parties.

Pint, was that a slip based on man of the people Nige being a lover of the drink of the working man

Foxy · 7:43AM

FPT:

Pulpstar said:

rcs1000 said:

Cyclefree said:
I am not a US lawyer.

But my understanding is that in the US to win a defamation case you mistakenly not only prove that the statement is untrue and libellous but that you were acting with malice. That is quite a high bar.

Also the US has stated that US courts will not automatically recognise libel judgments of the UK courts because they do not meet the high standards of US press freedom and First Amendment rights.

So Trump might not win the US courts and if he won in the UK courts might not be able to enforce. (Not that I'd expect him to sue in the UK.)
There's no case in the US. These were the actual words of the President. Now, were they cut to make him look more guilty? Yes.

But if that constitutes libel, then the vast majority of US political attack adverts, which similarly take remarks out of context, are then equally guilty.
Libel has a far superior construction in the US compared to the UK where the bar is far too low though

A UK libel trial could be highly amusing. Trump would have to appear in person and be cross-examined surely?

Then to recieve the princely sum of £1 in damages to his reputation, being a known liar and sexual predator.

Is there enough popcorn in the world?

RochdalePioneers · 7:45AM

A great analysis piece and I agree that "people will tactically vote for us" is the worst bit of the McSweeney gambit.

But - the tide is shifting massively and rapidly. The Greens have exploded into life making this a 5 way fight. If parties can explode out of nowhere, they can also sink to nowhere.

Reform are an unstable loose coalition of bastards, led by the king of seeing off rivals to the throne. We already have 3 splinters: Advance UK and Lowe UK. The former is backed by Elon Musk and features Tommeh Tiny-Cock as figurehead, the latter is considering what he does next but is maintaining a HUGE following on social media.

Its entirely possible for Reform's current lead to fracture, for them to both lose support to the even more extreme Tommeh Party and to the left as they come up with policies so extreme that ex LabCon voters no longer stomach it.

So yes, Labour and even the Tories could do better than the current trend suggests. They can also do worse. Labour cease to be a viable government in a few weeks at the budget. They will copy the Tories last time - stuck in office as they die. And the tides will shift massively and rapidly.

Stuartinromford · 7:46AM

Taz said:

ydoethur said:
I agree with the conclusion, except I think Farage will spectacularly implode at some pint because he usually does.

At the moment Reform look more SDP February 1982 than Labour 1922 to me.

I absolutely agree with this. His track record says this will inevitably happen.

So we are stuck with the same old failed three main parties.

Pint, was that a slip based on man of the people Nige being a lover of the drink of the working man

Though that didn't do William Hague much good.

The billion dollar question is... When push comes to shove, does Nigel actually want to be Prime Minister? As opposed to pushing someone else to run the country in a way that he approves of?

Power, responsibility and all that.

Eabhal · 7:46AM

Interesting article. There are perhaps 150 seats where Labour won't be the main opposition to Reform and I think there's a good chance the SNP, Plaid and the Greens have a very good result in those, alongside the Lib Dems.

The question then is whether Labour can save another 200ish to secure a left coalition.

Foxy · 7:47AM

ydoethur said:
I agree with the conclusion, except I think Farage will spectacularly implode at some pint because he usually does.

At the moment Reform look more SDP February 1982 than Labour 1922 to me.

Implosion is pretty inevitable, but could easily happen after election rather than before.

Starmer record unpopularity? Farage says hold my pint. (Empty pint glass surely? - Ed)

Casino_Royale · 7:48AM

Taz said:

ydoethur said:
I agree with the conclusion, except I think Farage will spectacularly implode at some pint because he usually does.

At the moment Reform look more SDP February 1982 than Labour 1922 to me.

I absolutely agree with this. His track record says this will inevitably happen.

So we are stuck with the same old failed three main parties.

Pint, was that a slip based on man of the people Nige being a lover of the drink of the working man

My guess is he subliminally fumbles the ball.

I think he wants to know he can become Prime Minister, rather than actually become Prime Minister.

Mexicanpete · 7:51AM

Foxy said:
FPT:

Pulpstar said:

rcs1000 said:

Cyclefree said:
I am not a US lawyer.

But my understanding is that in the US to win a defamation case you mistakenly not only prove that the statement is untrue and libellous but that you were acting with malice. That is quite a high bar.

Also the US has stated that US courts will not automatically recognise libel judgments of the UK courts because they do not meet the high standards of US press freedom and First Amendment rights.

So Trump might not win the US courts and if he won in the UK courts might not be able to enforce. (Not that I'd expect him to sue in the UK.)
There's no case in the US. These were the actual words of the President. Now, were they cut to make him look more guilty? Yes.

But if that constitutes libel, then the vast majority of US political attack adverts, which similarly take remarks out of context, are then equally guilty.
Libel has a far superior construction in the US compared to the UK where the bar is far too low though
A UK libel trial could be highly amusing. Trump would have to appear in person and be cross-examined surely?

Then to recieve the princely sum of £1 in damages to his reputation, being a known liar and sexual predator.

Is there enough popcorn in the world?

My understanding is the jurisdiction of choice is Florida.

Presumably Panorama has a hefty audience figure in the Sunshine State.

As with everything Trump it is all theatre.

The pernicious element to the whole story is the role of ex GBNews top dog Robbie Gibb in escalating the issue, and what exactly are his motives. Robbie Gibb is another example of Long Johnson.

Stuartinromford · 7:55AM

Casino_Royale said:

Taz said:

ydoethur said:
I agree with the conclusion, except I think Farage will spectacularly implode at some pint because he usually does.

At the moment Reform look more SDP February 1982 than Labour 1922 to me.

I absolutely agree with this. His track record says this will inevitably happen.

So we are stuck with the same old failed three main parties.

Pint, was that a slip based on man of the people Nige being a lover of the drink of the working man
My guess is he subliminally fumbles the ball.

I think he wants to know he can become Prime Minister, rather than actually become Prime Minister.

I've always wondered if that pro-Putin gaffe during the 2024 campaign was a subconcious (or maybe even concious) throttling of his campaign when it threatened to be too sucessful. A few more points on the result then would really have set the cat amongst the pigeons.

Theuniondivvie · 7:55AM

Foxy said:
FPT:

Pulpstar said:

rcs1000 said:

Cyclefree said:
I am not a US lawyer.

But my understanding is that in the US to win a defamation case you mistakenly not only prove that the statement is untrue and libellous but that you were acting with malice. That is quite a high bar.

Also the US has stated that US courts will not automatically recognise libel judgments of the UK courts because they do not meet the high standards of US press freedom and First Amendment rights.

So Trump might not win the US courts and if he won in the UK courts might not be able to enforce. (Not that I'd expect him to sue in the UK.)
There's no case in the US. These were the actual words of the President. Now, were they cut to make him look more guilty? Yes.

But if that constitutes libel, then the vast majority of US political attack adverts, which similarly take remarks out of context, are then equally guilty.
Libel has a far superior construction in the US compared to the UK where the bar is far too low though
A UK libel trial could be highly amusing. Trump would have to appear in person and be cross-examined surely?

Then to recieve the princely sum of £1 in damages to his reputation, being a known liar and sexual predator.

Is there enough popcorn in the world?

Trump is vain enough to think his personal magnetism would overcome the UK court system.
In fact has he won any recent cases that went to court? Aren’t all the ‘wins’ from companies that cravenly paid up in the face of threats?

HYUFD · 7:56AM

If Reform have a big enough poll lead then tactical voting won't stop them. If however Labour close the gap then the fact polls show more LD and Green voters would tactically vote Labour in Labour held seats to beat Reform than Conservatives would tactically vote Reform could be key. LD seats are mainly too posh for Reform to be serious contenders anyway and Green target seats too inner city and woke for Farage to make large inroads as well.

If Cleverly became Tory leader it is also possible significant numbers of Labour and LD voters would vote Conservative to beat Reform in Conservative held seats given Cleverly would not prop up a Farage led government but abstain

Battlebus · 7:56AM

ydoethur said:
I agree with the conclusion, except I think Farage will spectacularly implode at some pint because he usually does.

At the moment Reform look more SDP February 1982 than Labour 1922 to me.

So don't drink with him then if you don't want to see the mess.

MarqueeMark · 7:56AM

Reform is always one Farage ego trip away from collapse. One financial scandal. One health epiode.

I see no evidence that Reform will be much of a force without him. Which reinforces the power of the ego trip. Farage knows he is Reform. Anybody seriously talking about PM Tice? Nah...

Sandpit · 7:56AM

Casino_Royale said:

Taz said:

ydoethur said:
I agree with the conclusion, except I think Farage will spectacularly implode at some pint because he usually does.

At the moment Reform look more SDP February 1982 than Labour 1922 to me.

I absolutely agree with this. His track record says this will inevitably happen.

So we are stuck with the same old failed three main parties.

Pint, was that a slip based on man of the people Nige being a lover of the drink of the working man
My guess is he subliminally fumbles the ball.

I think he wants to know he can become Prime Minister, rather than actually become Prime Minister.

Sounds like pretty much any politician in recent years.

They all appear to care for little other than getting elected, hence the high public dissatisfaction levels.

Casino_Royale · 7:56AM

On topic, excellent piece - and I agree.

TheScreamingEagles · 7:58AM

Huzzah.

A “V for Vendetta” TV series is currently in development at HBO, Variety has learned exclusively.

According to sources, Pete Jackson* is attached to write the series adaptation. James Gunn and Peter Safran of DC Studios will executive produce, as will Ben Stephenson via Poison Pen and Leanne Klein of Wall to Wall Media, which is part of Warner Bros. Television Studios UK. Warner Bros. Television will produce.

https://variety.com/2025/tv/news/v-for-vendetta-tv-series-hbo-1236572917/

*He is not the Peter Jackson of the Lord of the Rings fame.

RochdalePioneers · 8:00AM

HYUFD said:
If Reform have a big enough poll lead then tactical voting won't stop them. If however Labour close the gap then the fact polls show more LD and Green voters would tactically vote Labour in Labour held seats to beat Reform than Conservatives would tactically vote Reform could be key. LD seats are mainly too posh for Reform to be serious contenders anyway and Green target seats too inner city and woke for Farage to make large inroads as well.

If Cleverly became Tory leader it is also possible significant numbers of Labour and LD voters would vote Conservative to beat Reform in Conservative held seats given Cleverly would not prop up a Farage led government but abstain

On that latter point, your party needs to remember why it has been called the "natural party of government" and actually been so for so long. You can't win cosplaying reform. You can;'t win by whining on about Labour as if there was never a Tory government doing the same things.

You have to set out your positive vision for national renewal. We are where we are, so doing more of the same won't fix anything. In the 70s the Mad Monk of Monetarism took hold of the party and created something new. 3 election victories and the other side converted to the policy vision. What's Monetarism in the 2020s?

Dopermean · 8:00AM

Taz said:

ydoethur said:
I agree with the conclusion, except I think Farage will spectacularly implode at some pint because he usually does.

At the moment Reform look more SDP February 1982 than Labour 1922 to me.

I absolutely agree with this. His track record says this will inevitably happen.

So we are stuck with the same old failed three main parties.

Pint, was that a slip based on man of the people Nige being a lover of the drink of the working man

The size of his beer gut suggests that isn't true.
Has he imploded before?
I suggest that previous surges have been supported by Conservative backers to drag the Conservatives to the right on Brexit and immigration (superficially at least). That support shifted back once it had achieved that aim. This time the Conservatives are far weaker but also Farage's backers include Marshall and some rightwing multimillionaires who are even further to the right.
Has Brexit resulted in the UK being vulnerable to foreign political influence?

IanB2 · 8:01AM

It's good to see Newton Abbot, well known to PB'ers as apparently a Labour target seat in last year's election, back in the spotlight!

I agree that pure tactical voting, based on the maths, will only be a factor at the margins and principally a benefit only for the LibDems, SNP and PC.

I do think there's a chance of the LibDems, and maybe Greens, riding an anti-Reform wave of the type just seen in the Netherlands. The question is whether this wave can carry either of them through to winning enough seats to stop Reform, or whether our absurdly perverse voting system actually converts such a wave into Reform gaining seats even more easily?

MattW · 8:03AM

FPT:

kle4 said:

Andy_JS said:
Does anyone remember the way that most returning officers in 2010 tried to do counting on the next day, and it was only because of a determined campaign by Iain Dale that 95% of them were persuaded to change their mind and continue with election night?

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/2010/apr/08/election-night-count
I don't, but well done to him. But it's an idea which will keep coming back, not enough people care enough to retain what is, essentially, just a tradition.

I'm not so sure on this one. Donning my hard-nosed value hat, what is the extra cost of overnight counts compared to next day?

The point about "overnight ballot-stuffing" is imo frivolous.

But at a time of cost-squeeze, I'm not sure overnight counts are always worth their place.

My County Council are this year spending the cost of a new children's playground on flag wagging, that is £75k pissed away on virtue signalling. I'd rather have the children's playground.

FeersumEnjineeya · 8:04AM

Foxy said:
Gareths point is a good one. I also think it rare to vote tactically to keep an unpopular government in power.

My seat is likely to be between Reform and a fairly sane Tory, but no way am I voting for a party that would likely prop up a Farage minority government.

My seat is similar, and I was planning to vote for the fairly sane Tory if that's what it takes to keep Reform out. But that depends on Tory policy. The more they move to the right, the harder it becomes to hold one's nose and vote for them. Environmental policy is important to me, and if the Conservatives are going to bin net zero, that crosses a line.

IanB2 · 8:05AM

Foxy said:
Gareths point is a good one. I also think it rare to vote tactically to keep an unpopular government in power.

My seat is likely to be between Reform and a fairly sane Tory, but no way am I voting for a party that would likely prop up a Farage minority government.

That's my problem also. I am happy to vote tactically against Reform, provided it doesn't mean voting Tory or Labour!

Benpointer · 8:06AM

Lots of confirmation bias in evidence on here this morning.

Which is brilliant, I absolutely agree.

HYUFD · 8:07AM

UK unemployment increases to 5%

"UK unemployment rate rises to 5% as jobs market weakens - BBC News" https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cdxrp7znkdlo

Mexicanpete · 8:09AM

Foxy said:

ydoethur said:
I agree with the conclusion, except I think Farage will spectacularly implode at some pint because he usually does.

At the moment Reform look more SDP February 1982 than Labour 1922 to me.
Implosion is pretty inevitable, but could easily happen after election rather than before.

Starmer record unpopularity? Farage says hold my pint. (Empty pint glass surely? - Ed)

The gurning tw** was on Ferrari yesterday giving his ludicrous opinion on how an enraged Trump had told him on Friday how he had been misrepresented as a seditious traitor by the splice from the BBC. Farage claimed Trump was outraged that he had been so scurrilously defamed by the UK, a political ally no less.

Point of order, Trump is no ally of the UK and whatever the ridiculous edit proved it did not in anyway change the narrative of Trump's hour long call to march on the Capitol Building.

One also questions where Farage's loyalties lie. He seems to have a greater concern for Trump's densities than he has for the rest of us. Why do people not see past the snake oil? Starmer and Badenoch may be useless, however their loyalty to the Union flag is unwavering. Farage with his Trump adjacency and his former friendship with Putin shill Nathan Gill makes me question his patriotism. Just a thought.

LostPassword · 8:09AM

This is an excellent article and makes the points I would tend to make in criticism of the idea that tactical voting will stop Reform.

IanB2 · 8:10AM

MattW said:
FPT:
kle4 said:

Andy_JS said:
Does anyone remember the way that most returning officers in 2010 tried to do counting on the next day, and it was only because of a determined campaign by Iain Dale that 95% of them were persuaded to change their mind and continue with election night?

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/2010/apr/08/election-night-count
I don't, but well done to him. But it's an idea which will keep coming back, not enough people care enough to retain what is, essentially, just a tradition.
I'm not so sure on this one. Donning my hard-nosed value hat, what is the extra cost of overnight counts compared to next day?

The point about "overnight ballot-stuffing" is imo frivolous.

But at a time of cost-squeeze, I'm not sure overnight counts are always worth their place.

My County Council are this year spending the cost of a new children's playground on flag wagging, that is £75k pissed away on virtue signalling. I'd rather have the children's playground.

Overnight counts are very hard on politicians and campaigners, and expensive for councils, with a whole shedload of staff on premium rate payments overnight and then the council effectively shuts down until the week after. It's a high price for a spectacle/tradition. As you say, the risk of fraud is trivial - the safeguards and number of council staff involved in managing a council election in the UK are such that organising an effective fraud between polls closing and the count would be exceptionally difficult, and almost certainly likely to be found out, sooner or later, and the penalties would be severe. Doing so over multiple seats would take a criminal genius to organise, and trying to tilt a single seat isn't worth the candle.

TheScreamingEagles · 8:12AM

Foxy said:
Gareths point is a good one. I also think it rare to vote tactically to keep an unpopular government in power.

My seat is likely to be between Reform and a fairly sane Tory, but no way am I voting for a party that would likely prop up a Farage minority government.

1992 in the UK*, this year in Canada.

*The Tories made a gain in Scotland.

eek · 8:13AM

I have to agree with Gareth, Caerphilly showed a not Reform party can hoover up all the Not Reform vote but that was because Plaid were also a None of the Above party.

For Reform to lose the election - it will require the Lib Dems to move into a winnable position in a lot of Labour heartland seats...

FrancisUrquhart · 8:13AM

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2025/nov/11/paperwork-blunder-by-uk-bookmaker-reveals-possible-offshore-operation

I dont think you need to be a genius to work out which one.

TheScreamingEagles · 8:15AM

ydoethur said:
I agree with the conclusion, except I think Farage will spectacularly implode at some pint because he usually does.

At the moment Reform look more SDP February 1982 than Labour 1922 to me.

I have a piece coming up on the SDP.

But I am still astonished by the Caerphilly result, not by the result itself (because I tipped PC to win it) but the fact turnout went up.

Now did non voters come out to stop Reform, I think some of them did.

We'll need a few more by-elections to see if this is a pattern or not.

We need some MPs in marginals to take one for the team and be caught buggering goats on Onlyfans or watching bus porn in the Commons.

LostPassword · 8:16AM

Casino_Royale said:

Taz said:

ydoethur said:
I agree with the conclusion, except I think Farage will spectacularly implode at some pint because he usually does.

At the moment Reform look more SDP February 1982 than Labour 1922 to me.

I absolutely agree with this. His track record says this will inevitably happen.

So we are stuck with the same old failed three main parties.

Pint, was that a slip based on man of the people Nige being a lover of the drink of the working man
My guess is he subliminally fumbles the ball.

I think he wants to know he can become Prime Minister, rather than actually become Prime Minister.

I could see the idea of traveling to the Palace, having his photo up on the wall at Number Ten, a guaranteed spot at the next Accession Council, in general forcing his way into the heart of the British Establishment, as being strong draws for Farage.

He's been on the outside, and scorned by those on the inside, of British politics for so long. Forcing his way in and forcing people to acknowledge him as their equal? I think he wants that.

Sandpit · 8:16AM

FrancisUrquhart said:
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2025/nov/11/paperwork-blunder-by-uk-bookmaker-reveals-possible-offshore-operation

I dont think you need to be a genius to work out which one.

Haha good luck with that. The end result is going to be that bookies all move completely offshore and most of the jobs go with them.

White writing on white background is an interesting failure mode from their audit team though.

Roger · 8:17AM

If anyone would like a £1000 at even money that Farage becomes PM after the next election please get in touch

boulay · 8:18AM

There was a BBC doc on at 5am, whilst Today in Parliament is on hiatus, called “Currently” which was an interesting look at the Danish approach to immigration.

Well constructed programme (if we can believe a word they said being the BBC and all that) where they involved a sensible and articulate Lab Red Wall MP (can’t remember her name but she is head of the Lab Red Wall grouping) on one side who is pro, Clive Lewis who was anti and then a lot of Danes from Labour’s sister party in National gov and local gov as well as the Danish Reform equiv and immigrants.

Key points I took from it were the Lab Red Wall MPs are finding that when they go door knocking they realise they will be walloped in those seats if they don’t solve immigration issues. Labour are going to end up with a massively watered down and thus ineffective policy because of MPs like Clive Lewis (and Nadia Whitome on the radio the other day) who are completely anti large and key parts.

The Danish Labour equivalents pointed out that Uk Labour is more of a broad church so harder to do in UK but they absolutely believe it’s the right thing to do.

Danish reform found it actually quite funny that Danish Labour nicked not just heir policy but their language but happy they did.

The immigrants were happy with it in general, didn’t like the medium term where they were in temp accommodation whilst the areas of 50% migrants were broken up but approved of it and liked that it was bringing down crime, their daughters were safer, areas getting nicer. They approved of the fact that even a speeding fine over a certain amount means you are kicked out.

Danes liked it for safety and end of Ghettoisation (the phrase used by both immigrants and Danish Labour).

LostPassword · 8:18AM

IanB2 said:
It's good to see Newton Abbot, well known to PB'ers as apparently a Labour target seat in last year's election, back in the spotlight!

I agree that pure tactical voting, based on the maths, will only be a factor at the margins and principally a benefit only for the LibDems, SNP and PC.

I do think there's a chance of the LibDems, and maybe Greens, riding an anti-Reform wave of the type just seen in the Netherlands. The question is whether this wave can carry either of them through to winning enough seats to stop Reform, or whether our absurdly perverse voting system actually converts such a wave into Reform gaining seats even more easily?

It's possible that the next election will in part be a contest between Labour/Lib Dems/Greens as to who can gain the most second places to Reform, and so credibly position themselves as the party the voters for the other parties should tactically vote for to turf Reform out of office.

MarqueeMark · 8:19AM

Mexicanpete said:

Foxy said:

ydoethur said:
I agree with the conclusion, except I think Farage will spectacularly implode at some pint because he usually does.

At the moment Reform look more SDP February 1982 than Labour 1922 to me.
Implosion is pretty inevitable, but could easily happen after election rather than before.

Starmer record unpopularity? Farage says hold my pint. (Empty pint glass surely? - Ed)
The gurning tw** was on Ferrari yesterday giving his ludicrous opinion on how an enraged Trump had told him on Friday how he had been misrepresented as a seditious traitor by the splice from the BBC. Farage claimed Trump was outraged that he had been so scurrilously defamed by the UK, a political ally no less.

Point of order, Trump is no ally of the UK and whatever the ridiculous edit proved it did not in anyway change the narrative of Trump's hour long call to march on the Capitol Building.

One also questions where Farage's loyalties lie. He seems to have a greater concern for Trump's densities than he has for the rest of us. Why do people not see past the snake oil? Starmer and Badenoch may be useless, however their loyalty to the Union flag is unwavering. Farage with his Trump adjacency and his former friendship with Putin shill Nathan Gill makes me question his patriotism. Just a thought.

"Trump's densitities" = "Trump's sensitivities"?

Trump is so dense that truth bends around him... A black hole of morality.

ydoethur · 8:19AM

Sandpit said:

ydoethur said:
I agree with the conclusion, except I think Farage will spectacularly implode at some pint because he usually does.

At the moment Reform look more SDP February 1982 than Labour 1922 to me.
That’s a good typo. I’ll take pint number 8.

It was sadly not deliberate, although it was almost freakishly brilliant.

If it had been deliberate, would my smugness be beerable?

Taz · 8:20AM

MattW said:
FPT:
kle4 said:

Andy_JS said:
Does anyone remember the way that most returning officers in 2010 tried to do counting on the next day, and it was only because of a determined campaign by Iain Dale that 95% of them were persuaded to change their mind and continue with election night?

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/2010/apr/08/election-night-count
I don't, but well done to him. But it's an idea which will keep coming back, not enough people care enough to retain what is, essentially, just a tradition.
I'm not so sure on this one. Donning my hard-nosed value hat, what is the extra cost of overnight counts compared to next day?

The point about "overnight ballot-stuffing" is imo frivolous.

But at a time of cost-squeeze, I'm not sure overnight counts are always worth their place.

My County Council are this year spending the cost of a new children's playground on flag wagging, that is £75k pissed away on virtue signalling. I'd rather have the children's playground.

Do you feel the same about Pride zebra crossings and the like. I’ve never seen you complain about them.

Sandpit · 8:21AM

HYUFD said:
UK unemployment increases to 5%

"UK unemployment rate rises to 5% as jobs market weakens - BBC News" https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cdxrp7znkdlo

Rate cut on the way, or is UK heading for stagflation?

moonshine · 8:21AM

I hear an echo on these pages of prior episodes, where coping mechanisms kick in against a highly likely political outcome that is strongly undesired by the coper. Trump’s return, Starmer super majority, Brexit etc…

This is an interesting piece because it cuts through the noise.

Edit: before I trigger anyone with the English language’s most boring word, with Brexit I do not mean the vote itself which was finely balanced, but the post-vote likelihood of it then occurring

Taz · 8:23AM

Stuartinromford said:

Casino_Royale said:

Taz said:

ydoethur said:
I agree with the conclusion, except I think Farage will spectacularly implode at some pint because he usually does.

At the moment Reform look more SDP February 1982 than Labour 1922 to me.

I absolutely agree with this. His track record says this will inevitably happen.

So we are stuck with the same old failed three main parties.

Pint, was that a slip based on man of the people Nige being a lover of the drink of the working man
My guess is he subliminally fumbles the ball.

I think he wants to know he can become Prime Minister, rather than actually become Prime Minister.
I've always wondered if that pro-Putin gaffe during the 2024 campaign was a subconcious (or maybe even concious) throttling of his campaign when it threatened to be too sucessful. A few more points on the result then would really have set the cat amongst the pigeons.

I think he’s just happy sniping from the sidelines and getting the attention for brand Farage.

HYUFD · 8:23AM

Sandpit said:

HYUFD said:
UK unemployment increases to 5%

"UK unemployment rate rises to 5% as jobs market weakens - BBC News" https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cdxrp7znkdlo
Rate cut on the way, or is UK heading for stagflation?

The latter likely with more budget tax hikes and a very high minimum wage and more public spending

MarqueeMark · 8:23AM

Sandpit said:

HYUFD said:
UK unemployment increases to 5%

"UK unemployment rate rises to 5% as jobs market weakens - BBC News" https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cdxrp7znkdlo
Rate cut on the way, or is UK heading for stagflation?

Under this government, plump for the worst option...

HYUFD · 8:24AM

eek said:
I have to agree with Gareth, Caerphilly showed a not Reform party can hoover up all the Not Reform vote but that was because Plaid were also a None of the Above party.

For Reform to lose the election - it will require the Lib Dems to move into a winnable position in a lot of Labour heartland seats...

Or Labour to get a more electable leader like Burnham or Streeting

Benpointer · 8:26AM

ydoethur said:

Sandpit said:

ydoethur said:
I agree with the conclusion, except I think Farage will spectacularly implode at some pint because he usually does.

At the moment Reform look more SDP February 1982 than Labour 1922 to me.
That’s a good typo. I’ll take pint number 8.
It was sadly not deliberate, although it was almost freakishly brilliant.

If it had been deliberate, would my smugness be beerable?

I honestly assumed it was just another brilliant example of the Punmeister at work.

Ale leave it at that.

ydoethur · 8:26AM

HYUFD said:

eek said:
I have to agree with Gareth, Caerphilly showed a not Reform party can hoover up all the Not Reform vote but that was because Plaid were also a None of the Above party.

For Reform to lose the election - it will require the Lib Dems to move into a winnable position in a lot of Labour heartland seats...

Or Labour to get a more electable leader like Burnham or Streeting

Burnahm can't become leader until they elect somebody more electable. He needs to be elected first...

Benpointer · 8:27AM

Roger said:
If anyone would like a £1000 at even money that Farage becomes PM after the next election please get in touch

Which side of the bet are you on Roger?

Stuartinromford · 8:27AM

LostPassword said:

Casino_Royale said:

Taz said:

ydoethur said:
I agree with the conclusion, except I think Farage will spectacularly implode at some pint because he usually does.

At the moment Reform look more SDP February 1982 than Labour 1922 to me.

I absolutely agree with this. His track record says this will inevitably happen.

So we are stuck with the same old failed three main parties.

Pint, was that a slip based on man of the people Nige being a lover of the drink of the working man
My guess is he subliminally fumbles the ball.

I think he wants to know he can become Prime Minister, rather than actually become Prime Minister.
I could see the idea of traveling to the Palace, having his photo up on the wall at Number Ten, a guaranteed spot at the next Accession Council, in general forcing his way into the heart of the British Establishment, as being strong draws for Farage.

He's been on the outside, and scorned by those on the inside, of British politics for so long. Forcing his way in and forcing people to acknowledge him as their equal? I think he wants that.

I'm sure he wants those bits, what red-blooded Briton wouldn't? But, having spent decades winding people up about how badly other politicians run things, does he really think he can do better? Really?

Musical Theatre George the Third nailed it;

What comes next?
You've been freed
Do you know how hard it is to lead?
You're on your own
Awesome, wow!
Do you have a clue what happens now?
Oceans rise, empires fall
It's much harder when it's all your call
All alone, across the sea
When your people say they hate you, don't come crawling back to me
Da-da-da-da-da
Da, da-da-da-ya-da
Da-da-da-da-da-ya-da
You're on your own

Taz · 8:28AM

Growth agenda latest

Well done Labour

https://x.com/ons/status/1988140283184205868?s=61

TheScreamingEagles · 8:29AM

Taz said:
Growth agenda latest

Well done Labour

https://x.com/ons/status/1988140283184205868?s=61

Who knew that increasing NI was a tax on jobs?

LostPassword · 8:29AM

Saratov oil refinery, that was hit overnight, has been hit six times over the last three months (and a day).

https://x.com/KHoholenko/status/1988111821648392632/photo/1

If Europe can provide the support to Ukraine so that they can increase that cadence of attack, and apply it to every oil refinery in range, then it will have a major impact.

TheScreamingEagles · 8:29AM

LostPassword said:
Saratov oil refinery, that was hit overnight, has been hit six times over the last three months (and a day).

https://x.com/KHoholenko/status/1988111821648392632/photo/1

If Europe can provide the support to Ukraine so that they can increase that cadence of attack, and apply it to every oil refinery in range, then it will have a major impact.

I've replied to your email.

bondegezou · 8:29AM

Taz said:

MattW said:
FPT:
kle4 said:

Andy_JS said:
Does anyone remember the way that most returning officers in 2010 tried to do counting on the next day, and it was only because of a determined campaign by Iain Dale that 95% of them were persuaded to change their mind and continue with election night?

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/2010/apr/08/election-night-count
I don't, but well done to him. But it's an idea which will keep coming back, not enough people care enough to retain what is, essentially, just a tradition.
I'm not so sure on this one. Donning my hard-nosed value hat, what is the extra cost of overnight counts compared to next day?

The point about "overnight ballot-stuffing" is imo frivolous.

But at a time of cost-squeeze, I'm not sure overnight counts are always worth their place.

My County Council are this year spending the cost of a new children's playground on flag wagging, that is £75k pissed away on virtue signalling. I'd rather have the children's playground.
Do you feel the same about Pride zebra crossings and the like. I’ve never seen you complain about them.

Well, that’s about a fiftieth of the cost.

Foxy · 8:30AM

ydoethur said:

Sandpit said:

ydoethur said:
I agree with the conclusion, except I think Farage will spectacularly implode at some pint because he usually does.

At the moment Reform look more SDP February 1982 than Labour 1922 to me.
That’s a good typo. I’ll take pint number 8.
It was sadly not deliberate, although it was almost freakishly brilliant.

If it had been deliberate, would my smugness be beerable?

He's just bitter at missing it.

Taz · 8:31AM

Trump v The Beeb would be like the Al Fayed v Neil Hamilton court case.

It’s a shame both sides cannot lose.

TheScreamingEagles · 8:31AM

For those who followed my 140/1 tip.

Trump goes after MTG and says he “surprised at her:

"When somebody like Marjorie Taylor Greene, who's now catering to the other side -- I guess she's got some kind of an act going, but I'm surprised at her -- when she makes statements like that it shows she doesn't know."

https://x.com/Osint613/status/1987990686646284752

Foxy · 8:31AM

Taz said:

MattW said:
FPT:
kle4 said:

Andy_JS said:
Does anyone remember the way that most returning officers in 2010 tried to do counting on the next day, and it was only because of a determined campaign by Iain Dale that 95% of them were persuaded to change their mind and continue with election night?

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/2010/apr/08/election-night-count
I don't, but well done to him. But it's an idea which will keep coming back, not enough people care enough to retain what is, essentially, just a tradition.
I'm not so sure on this one. Donning my hard-nosed value hat, what is the extra cost of overnight counts compared to next day?

The point about "overnight ballot-stuffing" is imo frivolous.

But at a time of cost-squeeze, I'm not sure overnight counts are always worth their place.

My County Council are this year spending the cost of a new children's playground on flag wagging, that is £75k pissed away on virtue signalling. I'd rather have the children's playground.
Do you feel the same about Pride zebra crossings and the like. I’ve never seen you complain about them.

Do they even exist? And if so were they done by the council?

ydoethur · 8:33AM

Benpointer said:

ydoethur said:

Sandpit said:

ydoethur said:
I agree with the conclusion, except I think Farage will spectacularly implode at some pint because he usually does.

At the moment Reform look more SDP February 1982 than Labour 1922 to me.
That’s a good typo. I’ll take pint number 8.
It was sadly not deliberate, although it was almost freakishly brilliant.

If it had been deliberate, would my smugness be beerable?
I honestly assumed it was just another brilliant example of the Punmeister at work.

Ale leave it at that.

Careful. Such compliments go to my head.

AnneJGP · 8:33AM

If Reform are going to implode, I hope it's prior to the GE. My fear is it will be after a GE they've won. What happens then?

Good morning, everybody.

Battlebus · 8:34AM

LostPassword said:

Casino_Royale said:

Taz said:

ydoethur said:
I agree with the conclusion, except I think Farage will spectacularly implode at some pint because he usually does.

At the moment Reform look more SDP February 1982 than Labour 1922 to me.

I absolutely agree with this. His track record says this will inevitably happen.

So we are stuck with the same old failed three main parties.

Pint, was that a slip based on man of the people Nige being a lover of the drink of the working man
My guess is he subliminally fumbles the ball.

I think he wants to know he can become Prime Minister, rather than actually become Prime Minister.
I could see the idea of traveling to the Palace, having his photo up on the wall at Number Ten, a guaranteed spot at the next Accession Council, in general forcing his way into the heart of the British Establishment, as being strong draws for Farage.

He's been on the outside, and scorned by those on the inside, of British politics for so long. Forcing his way in and forcing people to acknowledge him as their equal? I think he wants that.

Sot on. He's a wannabe and probably goes back to this time in Dulwich. He doesn't like the "Establishment" or the "Blob" as they were the ones that gave him a wedgie. He still getting metaphorical wedgies (Cenotaph) but he really, really wants to be one of the Establishment .

https://www.gbnews.com/politics/remembrance-sunday-nigel-farage-cenotaph-wreath

ydoethur · 8:34AM

Foxy said:

ydoethur said:

Sandpit said:

ydoethur said:
I agree with the conclusion, except I think Farage will spectacularly implode at some pint because he usually does.

At the moment Reform look more SDP February 1982 than Labour 1922 to me.
That’s a good typo. I’ll take pint number 8.
It was sadly not deliberate, although it was almost freakishly brilliant.

If it had been deliberate, would my smugness be beerable?
He's just bitter at missing it.

Is that for real?

LostPassword · 8:37AM

Stuartinromford said:

LostPassword said:

Casino_Royale said:

Taz said:

ydoethur said:
I agree with the conclusion, except I think Farage will spectacularly implode at some pint because he usually does.

At the moment Reform look more SDP February 1982 than Labour 1922 to me.

I absolutely agree with this. His track record says this will inevitably happen.

So we are stuck with the same old failed three main parties.

Pint, was that a slip based on man of the people Nige being a lover of the drink of the working man
My guess is he subliminally fumbles the ball.

I think he wants to know he can become Prime Minister, rather than actually become Prime Minister.
I could see the idea of traveling to the Palace, having his photo up on the wall at Number Ten, a guaranteed spot at the next Accession Council, in general forcing his way into the heart of the British Establishment, as being strong draws for Farage.

He's been on the outside, and scorned by those on the inside, of British politics for so long. Forcing his way in and forcing people to acknowledge him as their equal? I think he wants that.
I'm sure he wants those bits, what red-blooded Briton wouldn't? But, having spent decades winding people up about how badly other politicians run things, does he really think he can do better? Really?

Musical Theatre George the Third nailed it;

What comes next?
You've been freed
Do you know how hard it is to lead?
You're on your own
Awesome, wow!
Do you have a clue what happens now?
Oceans rise, empires fall
It's much harder when it's all your call
All alone, across the sea
When your people say they hate you, don't come crawling back to me
Da-da-da-da-da
Da, da-da-da-ya-da
Da-da-da-da-da-ya-da
You're on your own

Starmer thought he would do better. So did Truss.

Farage would be unusual if he had the self-awareness to doubt his ability to succeed where so many others fail.

And he's repeated his criticisms of the status quo so many times that he may have started to believe their simplicity himself.

Added to which, he doesn't even have to believe he would be good at the job, only better than the incumbent. And when the incumbent is Starmer - he may even see it as his duty to give it a go.

MattW · 8:38AM

Leicestershire County Council spending between £1.4m and £30m on cost-reduction consultants. Hmmm.

A contract worth up to £30 million has been agreed with the firm behind Leicestershire County Council’s savings review. The Reform UK leaders of the authority had previously announced they would be paying consultant firm Newton £1.4 million to carry out a deep dive of their books in a bid to reduce costs for the cash-strapped authority.
https://www.leicestermercury.co.uk/news/local-news/firm-leading-leicestershire-council-savings-10634902

AnneJGP · 8:38AM

IanB2 said:

MattW said:
FPT:
kle4 said:

Andy_JS said:
Does anyone remember the way that most returning officers in 2010 tried to do counting on the next day, and it was only because of a determined campaign by Iain Dale that 95% of them were persuaded to change their mind and continue with election night?

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/2010/apr/08/election-night-count
I don't, but well done to him. But it's an idea which will keep coming back, not enough people care enough to retain what is, essentially, just a tradition.
I'm not so sure on this one. Donning my hard-nosed value hat, what is the extra cost of overnight counts compared to next day?

The point about "overnight ballot-stuffing" is imo frivolous.

But at a time of cost-squeeze, I'm not sure overnight counts are always worth their place.

My County Council are this year spending the cost of a new children's playground on flag wagging, that is £75k pissed away on virtue signalling. I'd rather have the children's playground.
Overnight counts are very hard on politicians and campaigners, and expensive for councils, with a whole shedload of staff on premium rate payments overnight and then the council effectively shuts down until the week after. It's a high price for a spectacle/tradition. As you say, the risk of fraud is trivial - the safeguards and number of council staff involved in managing a council election in the UK are such that organising an effective fraud between polls closing and the count would be exceptionally difficult, and almost certainly likely to be found out, sooner or later, and the penalties would be severe. Doing so over multiple seats would take a criminal genius to organise, and trying to tilt a single seat isn't worth the candle.

It would be a great shame to lose the overnight count but it surely has to happen. I was never much of a TV fan but the overnight counts were a terrific highlight for me. Still are, of course, but of latter years it's been PB not TV.

Roger · 8:38AM

Theuniondivvie said:

Foxy said:
FPT:

Pulpstar said:

rcs1000 said:

Cyclefree said:
I am not a US lawyer.

But my understanding is that in the US to win a defamation case you mistakenly not only prove that the statement is untrue and libellous but that you were acting with malice. That is quite a high bar.

Also the US has stated that US courts will not automatically recognise libel judgments of the UK courts because they do not meet the high standards of US press freedom and First Amendment rights.

So Trump might not win the US courts and if he won in the UK courts might not be able to enforce. (Not that I'd expect him to sue in the UK.)
There's no case in the US. These were the actual words of the President. Now, were they cut to make him look more guilty? Yes.

But if that constitutes libel, then the vast majority of US political attack adverts, which similarly take remarks out of context, are then equally guilty.
Libel has a far superior construction in the US compared to the UK where the bar is far too low though
A UK libel trial could be highly amusing. Trump would have to appear in person and be cross-examined surely?

Then to recieve the princely sum of £1 in damages to his reputation, being a known liar and sexual predator.

Is there enough popcorn in the world?
Trump is vain enough to think his personal magnetism would overcome the UK court system.
In fact has he won any recent cases that went to court? Aren’t all the ‘wins’ from companies that cravenly paid up in the face of threats?

That's right. I can't see him having a dogs chance with a UK jury. The BBC might be going through a bad patch but finding for Trump against Auntie? No chance

HYUFD · 8:38AM

ydoethur said:

HYUFD said:

eek said:
I have to agree with Gareth, Caerphilly showed a not Reform party can hoover up all the Not Reform vote but that was because Plaid were also a None of the Above party.

For Reform to lose the election - it will require the Lib Dems to move into a winnable position in a lot of Labour heartland seats...

Or Labour to get a more electable leader like Burnham or Streeting
Burnahm can't become leader until they elect somebody more electable. He needs to be elected first...

He would get a personal vote in a greater Manchester seat

Peter_the_Punter · 8:40AM

Taz said:
Trump v The Beeb would be like the Al Fayed v Neil Hamilton court case.

It’s a shame both sides cannot lose.

The Beeb nade a mistake. It was entitled to apologise, and has done so.

For all its many faults it remains the outstanding independent news source around the world with an unequalled reputation for accuracy and impartiality. In many parts of the world it is the only means people have to find out what is going on. People risk their lives just to listen to its broadcasts because they know that it the only source which can be relied upon to give news in a reasonably impartial and balanced way.

You want it to lose? You'd prefer something like Fox presumably.

HYUFD · 8:41AM

Battlebus said:

LostPassword said:

Casino_Royale said:

Taz said:

ydoethur said:
I agree with the conclusion, except I think Farage will spectacularly implode at some pint because he usually does.

At the moment Reform look more SDP February 1982 than Labour 1922 to me.

I absolutely agree with this. His track record says this will inevitably happen.

So we are stuck with the same old failed three main parties.

Pint, was that a slip based on man of the people Nige being a lover of the drink of the working man
My guess is he subliminally fumbles the ball.

I think he wants to know he can become Prime Minister, rather than actually become Prime Minister.
I could see the idea of traveling to the Palace, having his photo up on the wall at Number Ten, a guaranteed spot at the next Accession Council, in general forcing his way into the heart of the British Establishment, as being strong draws for Farage.

He's been on the outside, and scorned by those on the inside, of British politics for so long. Forcing his way in and forcing people to acknowledge him as their equal? I think he wants that.
Sot on. He's a wannabe and probably goes back to this time in Dulwich. He doesn't like the "Establishment" or the "Blob" as they were the ones that gave him a wedgie. He still getting metaphorical wedgies (Cenotaph) but he really, really wants to be one of the Establishment .

https://www.gbnews.com/politics/remembrance-sunday-nigel-farage-cenotaph-wreath

Farage will never be establishment as he never went to Oxbridge or even any university. He did go to Dulwich but while a major public school it is still not Eton or Winchester or Westminster or even Harrow. While wealthy he is also not a billionaire or worth over £100 million so he isn’t rich enough to be able to force himself into the establishment either

ydoethur · 8:41AM

HYUFD said:

ydoethur said:

HYUFD said:

eek said:
I have to agree with Gareth, Caerphilly showed a not Reform party can hoover up all the Not Reform vote but that was because Plaid were also a None of the Above party.

For Reform to lose the election - it will require the Lib Dems to move into a winnable position in a lot of Labour heartland seats...

Or Labour to get a more electable leader like Burnham or Streeting
Burnahm can't become leader until they elect somebody more electable. He needs to be elected first...
He would get a personal vote in a greater Manchester seat

So he might scrape second.

prh47bridge · 8:42AM

Mexicanpete said:

Foxy said:
FPT:

Pulpstar said:

rcs1000 said:

Cyclefree said:
I am not a US lawyer.

But my understanding is that in the US to win a defamation case you mistakenly not only prove that the statement is untrue and libellous but that you were acting with malice. That is quite a high bar.

Also the US has stated that US courts will not automatically recognise libel judgments of the UK courts because they do not meet the high standards of US press freedom and First Amendment rights.

So Trump might not win the US courts and if he won in the UK courts might not be able to enforce. (Not that I'd expect him to sue in the UK.)
There's no case in the US. These were the actual words of the President. Now, were they cut to make him look more guilty? Yes.

But if that constitutes libel, then the vast majority of US political attack adverts, which similarly take remarks out of context, are then equally guilty.
Libel has a far superior construction in the US compared to the UK where the bar is far too low though
A UK libel trial could be highly amusing. Trump would have to appear in person and be cross-examined surely?

Then to recieve the princely sum of £1 in damages to his reputation, being a known liar and sexual predator.

Is there enough popcorn in the world?
My understanding is the jurisdiction of choice is Florida.

Presumably Panorama has a hefty audience figure in the Sunshine State.

As with everything Trump it is all theatre.

The pernicious element to the whole story is the role of ex GBNews top dog Robbie Gibb in escalating the issue, and what exactly are his motives. Robbie Gibb is another example of Long Johnson.

If he sues in Florida, he will be required to prove that the BBC acted out of malice, which is not easy.

If he sues in the UK, he will have a better chance of winning, but there is no way he would get anywhere near $1billion in damages if he did. Even here, it is not guaranteed he would win. The courts may accept that the BBC's report was substantially true, i.e. that whilst they did cut together separate parts of Trump's speech and muddled the timeline, their implication that Trump deliberately set out to cause the insurrection is true.

I note that @Pulpstar thinks US libel law is superior to the UK. I disagree. I know the press would love to be able to publish defamatory stories about public figures without having to worry about whether they are true, as is the case in the US. I am happy they cannot. I'm not saying UK libel law is perfect but, in my view, the US protection for the press goes to far and allows them to ruin the lives of innocent men and women.

ydoethur · 8:42AM

LostPassword said:

Stuartinromford said:

LostPassword said:

Casino_Royale said:

Taz said:

ydoethur said:
I agree with the conclusion, except I think Farage will spectacularly implode at some pint because he usually does.

At the moment Reform look more SDP February 1982 than Labour 1922 to me.

I absolutely agree with this. His track record says this will inevitably happen.

So we are stuck with the same old failed three main parties.

Pint, was that a slip based on man of the people Nige being a lover of the drink of the working man
My guess is he subliminally fumbles the ball.

I think he wants to know he can become Prime Minister, rather than actually become Prime Minister.
I could see the idea of traveling to the Palace, having his photo up on the wall at Number Ten, a guaranteed spot at the next Accession Council, in general forcing his way into the heart of the British Establishment, as being strong draws for Farage.

He's been on the outside, and scorned by those on the inside, of British politics for so long. Forcing his way in and forcing people to acknowledge him as their equal? I think he wants that.
I'm sure he wants those bits, what red-blooded Briton wouldn't? But, having spent decades winding people up about how badly other politicians run things, does he really think he can do better? Really?

Musical Theatre George the Third nailed it;

What comes next?
You've been freed
Do you know how hard it is to lead?
You're on your own
Awesome, wow!
Do you have a clue what happens now?
Oceans rise, empires fall
It's much harder when it's all your call
All alone, across the sea
When your people say they hate you, don't come crawling back to me
Da-da-da-da-da
Da, da-da-da-ya-da
Da-da-da-da-da-ya-da
You're on your own
Starmer thought he would do better. So did Truss.

Farage would be unusual if he had the self-awareness to doubt his ability to succeed where so many others fail.

And he's repeated his criticisms of the status quo so many times that he may have started to believe their simplicity himself.

Added to which, he doesn't even have to believe he would be good at the job, only better than the incumbent. And when the incumbent is Starmer - he may even see it as his duty to give it a go.

The Alan Johnsons of this world are rare.

The Boris Johnsons are much more common.

(Oddly, one example of a man who never seriously thought he could get to the top of politics and whose ambition was to be deputy PM was Peter Mandelson.)

HYUFD · 8:43AM

Taz said:
Trump v The Beeb would be like the Al Fayed v Neil Hamilton court case.

It’s a shame both sides cannot lose.

Went to watch George Carman in that case at the RCJ, he was brilliant even if the others weren’t

Stuartinromford · 8:44AM

AnneJGP said:
If Reform are going to implode, I hope it's prior to the GE. My fear is it will be after a GE they've won. What happens then?

Good morning, everybody.

A disorganised rabble. A selection of Official Reform, Independent Reform, True Reform, Really True Reform, Reformer Than Thou... You get the idea. After all, once an MP is elected, their party label is irrelevant until the next election.

And whilst Farage has put a safety lock on being deposed as leader, I don't see how he does the same for being PM.

We're beginning to see that happening in Reform-run councils. There must be a decent chance on some going NOC due to defections over the next year or so.

Dopermean · 8:44AM

Sandpit said:

FrancisUrquhart said:
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2025/nov/11/paperwork-blunder-by-uk-bookmaker-reveals-possible-offshore-operation

I dont think you need to be a genius to work out which one.
Haha good luck with that. The end result is going to be that bookies all move completely offshore and most of the jobs go with them.

White writing on white background is an interesting failure mode from their audit team though.

Any bookmaker taking UK bets has to have a UK Gambling commission license, that was closed off by coalition govt.

Taz · 8:44AM

TheScreamingEagles said:

Taz said:
Growth agenda latest

Well done Labour

https://x.com/ons/status/1988140283184205868?s=61
Who knew that increasing NI was a tax on jobs?

Not our Rache.

bondegezou · 8:45AM

Roger said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Foxy said:
FPT:

Pulpstar said:

rcs1000 said:

Cyclefree said:
I am not a US lawyer.

But my understanding is that in the US to win a defamation case you mistakenly not only prove that the statement is untrue and libellous but that you were acting with malice. That is quite a high bar.

Also the US has stated that US courts will not automatically recognise libel judgments of the UK courts because they do not meet the high standards of US press freedom and First Amendment rights.

So Trump might not win the US courts and if he won in the UK courts might not be able to enforce. (Not that I'd expect him to sue in the UK.)
There's no case in the US. These were the actual words of the President. Now, were they cut to make him look more guilty? Yes.

But if that constitutes libel, then the vast majority of US political attack adverts, which similarly take remarks out of context, are then equally guilty.
Libel has a far superior construction in the US compared to the UK where the bar is far too low though
A UK libel trial could be highly amusing. Trump would have to appear in person and be cross-examined surely?

Then to recieve the princely sum of £1 in damages to his reputation, being a known liar and sexual predator.

Is there enough popcorn in the world?
Trump is vain enough to think his personal magnetism would overcome the UK court system.
In fact has he won any recent cases that went to court? Aren’t all the ‘wins’ from companies that cravenly paid up in the face of threats?
That's right. I can't see him having a dogs chance with a UK jury. The BBC might be going through a bad patch but finding for Trump against Auntie? No chance

He’s timed out to bring a libel case in the UK. He’s proposed a case in Florida, where he may find a more sympathetic jury, but it’s way harder for a public figure to win a libel case in the US. (Also BBC America is based in New York. The defence would try to get the case moved there.)

But we really shouldn’t be trying to analyse Trump’s threats as if they are real. It’s performative nonsense.

AnneJGP · 8:45AM

Mexicanpete said:

Foxy said:
FPT:

Pulpstar said:

rcs1000 said:

Cyclefree said:
I am not a US lawyer.

But my understanding is that in the US to win a defamation case you mistakenly not only prove that the statement is untrue and libellous but that you were acting with malice. That is quite a high bar.

Also the US has stated that US courts will not automatically recognise libel judgments of the UK courts because they do not meet the high standards of US press freedom and First Amendment rights.

So Trump might not win the US courts and if he won in the UK courts might not be able to enforce. (Not that I'd expect him to sue in the UK.)
There's no case in the US. These were the actual words of the President. Now, were they cut to make him look more guilty? Yes.

But if that constitutes libel, then the vast majority of US political attack adverts, which similarly take remarks out of context, are then equally guilty.
Libel has a far superior construction in the US compared to the UK where the bar is far too low though
A UK libel trial could be highly amusing. Trump would have to appear in person and be cross-examined surely?

Then to recieve the princely sum of £1 in damages to his reputation, being a known liar and sexual predator.

Is there enough popcorn in the world?
My understanding is the jurisdiction of choice is Florida.

Presumably Panorama has a hefty audience figure in the Sunshine State.

As with everything Trump it is all theatre.

The pernicious element to the whole story is the role of ex GBNews top dog Robbie Gibb in escalating the issue, and what exactly are his motives. Robbie Gibb is another example of Long Johnson.

Will any USA lawyers be prepared to represent the BBC against Mr Trump? They have to live there during/after.

BartholomewRoberts · 8:46AM

ydoethur said:

Foxy said:

ydoethur said:

Sandpit said:

ydoethur said:
I agree with the conclusion, except I think Farage will spectacularly implode at some pint because he usually does.

At the moment Reform look more SDP February 1982 than Labour 1922 to me.
That’s a good typo. I’ll take pint number 8.
It was sadly not deliberate, although it was almost freakishly brilliant.

If it had been deliberate, would my smugness be beerable?
He's just bitter at missing it.
Is that for real?

It should be taken in moderation.

eek · 8:47AM

MattW said:
Leicestershire County Council spending between £1.4m and £30m on cost-reduction consultants. Hmmm.

A contract worth up to £30 million has been agreed with the firm behind Leicestershire County Council’s savings review. The Reform UK leaders of the authority had previously announced they would be paying consultant firm Newton £1.4 million to carry out a deep dive of their books in a bid to reduce costs for the cash-strapped authority.
https://www.leicestermercury.co.uk/news/local-news/firm-leading-leicestershire-council-savings-10634902

Well that's between £1,4m and £30m completely wasted - although I would love to see the final report be published as it would help a lot of other councils from wasting money on such items..

Reality is councils provide the same things - you ideal should be to identify where best practice is done elsewhere and try to copy that.

HYUFD · 8:48AM

ydoethur said:

HYUFD said:

ydoethur said:

HYUFD said:

eek said:
I have to agree with Gareth, Caerphilly showed a not Reform party can hoover up all the Not Reform vote but that was because Plaid were also a None of the Above party.

For Reform to lose the election - it will require the Lib Dems to move into a winnable position in a lot of Labour heartland seats...

Or Labour to get a more electable leader like Burnham or Streeting
Burnahm can't become leader until they elect somebody more electable. He needs to be elected first...
He would get a personal vote in a greater Manchester seat
So he might scrape second.

Provided it was a seat Labour held even in 2019 he would likely win it even in a by election.

A MiC poll had a Burnham led Labour 2% ahead of Reform so he could even win in a seat Labour did not win in 2019

ydoethur · 8:48AM

bondegezou said:

Roger said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Foxy said:
FPT:

Pulpstar said:

rcs1000 said:

Cyclefree said:
I am not a US lawyer.

But my understanding is that in the US to win a defamation case you mistakenly not only prove that the statement is untrue and libellous but that you were acting with malice. That is quite a high bar.

Also the US has stated that US courts will not automatically recognise libel judgments of the UK courts because they do not meet the high standards of US press freedom and First Amendment rights.

So Trump might not win the US courts and if he won in the UK courts might not be able to enforce. (Not that I'd expect him to sue in the UK.)
There's no case in the US. These were the actual words of the President. Now, were they cut to make him look more guilty? Yes.

But if that constitutes libel, then the vast majority of US political attack adverts, which similarly take remarks out of context, are then equally guilty.
Libel has a far superior construction in the US compared to the UK where the bar is far too low though
A UK libel trial could be highly amusing. Trump would have to appear in person and be cross-examined surely?

Then to recieve the princely sum of £1 in damages to his reputation, being a known liar and sexual predator.

Is there enough popcorn in the world?
Trump is vain enough to think his personal magnetism would overcome the UK court system.
In fact has he won any recent cases that went to court? Aren’t all the ‘wins’ from companies that cravenly paid up in the face of threats?
That's right. I can't see him having a dogs chance with a UK jury. The BBC might be going through a bad patch but finding for Trump against Auntie? No chance
He’s timed out to bring a libel case in the UK. He’s proposed a case in Florida, where he may find a more sympathetic jury, but it’s way harder for a public figure to win a libel case in the US. (Also BBC America is based in New York. The defence would try to get the case moved there.)

But we really shouldn’t be trying to analyse Trump’s threats as if they are real. It’s performative nonsense.

If it had been on iPlayer for any length of time he might not be.

I do hope he does sue. It would be exceedingly difficult for him to win and the Truth Social posts on the judge’s remarks would be something else.

bondegezou · 8:49AM

AnneJGP said:

Mexicanpete said:

Foxy said:
FPT:

Pulpstar said:

rcs1000 said:

Cyclefree said:
I am not a US lawyer.

But my understanding is that in the US to win a defamation case you mistakenly not only prove that the statement is untrue and libellous but that you were acting with malice. That is quite a high bar.

Also the US has stated that US courts will not automatically recognise libel judgments of the UK courts because they do not meet the high standards of US press freedom and First Amendment rights.

So Trump might not win the US courts and if he won in the UK courts might not be able to enforce. (Not that I'd expect him to sue in the UK.)
There's no case in the US. These were the actual words of the President. Now, were they cut to make him look more guilty? Yes.

But if that constitutes libel, then the vast majority of US political attack adverts, which similarly take remarks out of context, are then equally guilty.
Libel has a far superior construction in the US compared to the UK where the bar is far too low though
A UK libel trial could be highly amusing. Trump would have to appear in person and be cross-examined surely?

Then to recieve the princely sum of £1 in damages to his reputation, being a known liar and sexual predator.

Is there enough popcorn in the world?
My understanding is the jurisdiction of choice is Florida.

Presumably Panorama has a hefty audience figure in the Sunshine State.

As with everything Trump it is all theatre.

The pernicious element to the whole story is the role of ex GBNews top dog Robbie Gibb in escalating the issue, and what exactly are his motives. Robbie Gibb is another example of Long Johnson.
Will any USA lawyers be prepared to represent the BBC against Mr Trump? They have to live there during/after.

There are plenty of US lawyers whipping Trump’s ass each week in cases up and down the country. The only problem is that the Supreme Court keep protecting Trump from actually having to listen to what lower courts say.

AnneJGP · 8:49AM

Peter_the_Punter said:

Taz said:
Trump v The Beeb would be like the Al Fayed v Neil Hamilton court case.

It’s a shame both sides cannot lose.
The Beeb nade a mistake. It was entitled to apologise, and has done so.

For all its many faults it remains the outstanding independent news source around the world with an unequalled reputation for accuracy and impartiality. In many parts of the world it is the only means people have to find out what is going on. People risk their lives just to listen to its broadcasts because they know that it the only source which can be relied upon to give news in a reasonably impartial and balanced way.

You want it to lose? You'd prefer something like Fox presumably.

Hopefully this will be a wake-up call to all BBC-ers that impartiality is gold and a reputation is more easily lost than restored.

Taz · 8:49AM

Peter_the_Punter said:

Taz said:
Trump v The Beeb would be like the Al Fayed v Neil Hamilton court case.

It’s a shame both sides cannot lose.
The Beeb nade a mistake. It was entitled to apologise, and has done so.

For all its many faults it remains the outstanding independent news source around the world with an unequalled reputation for accuracy and impartiality. In many parts of the world it is the only means people have to find out what is going on. People risk their lives just to listen to its broadcasts because they know that it the only source which can be relied upon to give news in a reasonably impartial and balanced way.

You want it to lose? You'd prefer something like Fox presumably.

You’re usually a most reasonable poster. That last dig is cheap and most unlike you.

I don’t like the BBC, it offers me little, I don’t like having to fund a license fee for a service I barely use.

My watching is predominantly YouTube, old TV and my strap on hard drives that hold my DVD collection.

Fund world service via the license fee and let the commercial side, the strictly and traitors side, compete for funding.

The BBC has a track record of getting news wrong and lessons will be learned. Yet here we are.

I do watch some CNBC stuff on YouTube. Also some yahoo finance. That’s about it. Never watch Fox News, or GB News.

Sandpit · 8:50AM

LostPassword said:
Saratov oil refinery, that was hit overnight, has been hit six times over the last three months (and a day).

https://x.com/KHoholenko/status/1988111821648392632/photo/1

If Europe can provide the support to Ukraine so that they can increase that cadence of attack, and apply it to every oil refinery in range, then it will have a major impact.

There’s a lot of fire around at the moment, the Flamingos appear to be doing a good job.

The sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil are also proving very effective, with a number of European facilities being shut down or nationalised.

Lukoil has declared force majeure at the giant West Qurna-2 oil field in Iraq after U.S. and EU sanctions prompted Baghdad to halt all payments.

https://x.com/visegrad24/status/1987893368806936769

Half a trillion rubles (c.$40bn) are being injected into Russian banks by the State, to stave off a collapse in the face of high interest rates and bad debts. Looks like the hyperinflation could be on the way!

https://x.com/maria_drutska/status/1987804924223029438

OnlyLivingBoy · 8:51AM

HYUFD said:

Battlebus said:

LostPassword said:

Casino_Royale said:

Taz said:

ydoethur said:
I agree with the conclusion, except I think Farage will spectacularly implode at some pint because he usually does.

At the moment Reform look more SDP February 1982 than Labour 1922 to me.

I absolutely agree with this. His track record says this will inevitably happen.

So we are stuck with the same old failed three main parties.

Pint, was that a slip based on man of the people Nige being a lover of the drink of the working man
My guess is he subliminally fumbles the ball.

I think he wants to know he can become Prime Minister, rather than actually become Prime Minister.
I could see the idea of traveling to the Palace, having his photo up on the wall at Number Ten, a guaranteed spot at the next Accession Council, in general forcing his way into the heart of the British Establishment, as being strong draws for Farage.

He's been on the outside, and scorned by those on the inside, of British politics for so long. Forcing his way in and forcing people to acknowledge him as their equal? I think he wants that.
Sot on. He's a wannabe and probably goes back to this time in Dulwich. He doesn't like the "Establishment" or the "Blob" as they were the ones that gave him a wedgie. He still getting metaphorical wedgies (Cenotaph) but he really, really wants to be one of the Establishment .

https://www.gbnews.com/politics/remembrance-sunday-nigel-farage-cenotaph-wreath
Farage will never be establishment as he never went to Oxbridge or even any university. He did go to Dulwich but while a major public school it is still not Eton or Winchester or Westminster or even Harrow. While wealthy he is also not a billionaire or worth over £100 million so he isn’t rich enough to be able to force himself into the establishment either

Farage is typical of the kind of people who want to bring down the establishment: close enough to it to resent his exclusion all the more. Very like Trump in that respect. A chip on his shoulder you could see from space.
My dad went to Dulwich (on a scholarship, long before Farage) and absolutely loathed the place with a passion. My daughter knew a few "DC boys" too from the SE London teenage party scene and says they are a pretty toxic bunch even now. I do sometimes wonder why we tolerate these madrassas of hate peddling values that seem so at odds with mainstream British culture.

eek · 8:51AM

Taz said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

Taz said:
Trump v The Beeb would be like the Al Fayed v Neil Hamilton court case.

It’s a shame both sides cannot lose.
The Beeb nade a mistake. It was entitled to apologise, and has done so.

For all its many faults it remains the outstanding independent news source around the world with an unequalled reputation for accuracy and impartiality. In many parts of the world it is the only means people have to find out what is going on. People risk their lives just to listen to its broadcasts because they know that it the only source which can be relied upon to give news in a reasonably impartial and balanced way.

You want it to lose? You'd prefer something like Fox presumably.
You’re usually a most reasonable poster. That last dig is cheap and most unlike you.

I don’t like the BBC, it offers me little, I don’t like having to fund a license fee for a service I barely use.

My watching is predominantly YouTube, old TV and my strap on hard drives that hold my DVD collection.

Fund world service via the license fee and let the commercial side, the strictly and traitors side, compete for funding.

The BBC has a track record of getting news wrong and lessons will be learned. Yet here we are.

So basically you aren't making full use of a service you pay for - as I note that it's a service you barely use rather than don't use.

That's on you rather than the BBC - because you can opt out by disabling your aerial..

Taz · 8:51AM

AnneJGP said:
If Reform are going to implode, I hope it's prior to the GE. My fear is it will be after a GE they've won. What happens then?

Good morning, everybody.

We have a good idea from the paralysis in the current govt.

None of the Above will be just like all of the above.

Sandpit · 8:54AM

eek said:

MattW said:
Leicestershire County Council spending between £1.4m and £30m on cost-reduction consultants. Hmmm.

A contract worth up to £30 million has been agreed with the firm behind Leicestershire County Council’s savings review. The Reform UK leaders of the authority had previously announced they would be paying consultant firm Newton £1.4 million to carry out a deep dive of their books in a bid to reduce costs for the cash-strapped authority.
https://www.leicestermercury.co.uk/news/local-news/firm-leading-leicestershire-council-savings-10634902
Well that's between £1,4m and £30m completely wasted - although I would love to see the final report be published as it would help a lot of other councils from wasting money on such items..

Reality is councils provide the same things - you ideal should be to identify where best practice is done elsewhere and try to copy that.

I’d do that job for £0.14m, 10% of their minimum consultancy budget.

As you say, it’s a simple research project to look at what works elsewhere and report back on it, followed by a value-for-money review of contracts as they come up for renegotiation or renewal.

One man one year.

Taz · 8:55AM

MattW said:
Leicestershire County Council spending between £1.4m and £30m on cost-reduction consultants. Hmmm.

A contract worth up to £30 million has been agreed with the firm behind Leicestershire County Council’s savings review. The Reform UK leaders of the authority had previously announced they would be paying consultant firm Newton £1.4 million to carry out a deep dive of their books in a bid to reduce costs for the cash-strapped authority.
https://www.leicestermercury.co.uk/news/local-news/firm-leading-leicestershire-council-savings-10634902

Many councils do this.

Some more succesfully than others. The consultants always do well.

BartholomewRoberts · 8:55AM

eek said:

Taz said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

Taz said:
Trump v The Beeb would be like the Al Fayed v Neil Hamilton court case.

It’s a shame both sides cannot lose.
The Beeb nade a mistake. It was entitled to apologise, and has done so.

For all its many faults it remains the outstanding independent news source around the world with an unequalled reputation for accuracy and impartiality. In many parts of the world it is the only means people have to find out what is going on. People risk their lives just to listen to its broadcasts because they know that it the only source which can be relied upon to give news in a reasonably impartial and balanced way.

You want it to lose? You'd prefer something like Fox presumably.
You’re usually a most reasonable poster. That last dig is cheap and most unlike you.

I don’t like the BBC, it offers me little, I don’t like having to fund a license fee for a service I barely use.

My watching is predominantly YouTube, old TV and my strap on hard drives that hold my DVD collection.

Fund world service via the license fee and let the commercial side, the strictly and traitors side, compete for funding.

The BBC has a track record of getting news wrong and lessons will be learned. Yet here we are.
So basically you aren't making full use of a service you pay for - as I note that it's a service you barely use rather than don't use.

That's on you rather than the BBC - because you can opt out by disabling your aerial..

It is unreasonable that you need a licence fee to stream ANY live service, even if not related to the BBC.

Want to watch Sky Sports? Or Prime live? Or a live news program on YouTube?

The law says you need a licence fee even if not watching the Beeb.

DecrepiterJohnL · 8:57AM

HYUFD said:
UK unemployment increases to 5%

"UK unemployment rate rises to 5% as jobs market weakens - BBC News" https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cdxrp7znkdlo

Which shows this is the wrong time to force borderline unemployable people into employment, and the right time to help those who do want to work get jobs, or upskill and get jobs.

Stuartinromford · 8:57AM

OnlyLivingBoy said:

HYUFD said:

Battlebus said:

LostPassword said:

Casino_Royale said:

Taz said:

ydoethur said:
I agree with the conclusion, except I think Farage will spectacularly implode at some pint because he usually does.

At the moment Reform look more SDP February 1982 than Labour 1922 to me.

I absolutely agree with this. His track record says this will inevitably happen.

So we are stuck with the same old failed three main parties.

Pint, was that a slip based on man of the people Nige being a lover of the drink of the working man
My guess is he subliminally fumbles the ball.

I think he wants to know he can become Prime Minister, rather than actually become Prime Minister.
I could see the idea of traveling to the Palace, having his photo up on the wall at Number Ten, a guaranteed spot at the next Accession Council, in general forcing his way into the heart of the British Establishment, as being strong draws for Farage.

He's been on the outside, and scorned by those on the inside, of British politics for so long. Forcing his way in and forcing people to acknowledge him as their equal? I think he wants that.
Sot on. He's a wannabe and probably goes back to this time in Dulwich. He doesn't like the "Establishment" or the "Blob" as they were the ones that gave him a wedgie. He still getting metaphorical wedgies (Cenotaph) but he really, really wants to be one of the Establishment .

https://www.gbnews.com/politics/remembrance-sunday-nigel-farage-cenotaph-wreath
Farage will never be establishment as he never went to Oxbridge or even any university. He did go to Dulwich but while a major public school it is still not Eton or Winchester or Westminster or even Harrow. While wealthy he is also not a billionaire or worth over £100 million so he isn’t rich enough to be able to force himself into the establishment either
Farage is typical of the kind of people who want to bring down the establishment: close enough to it to resent his exclusion all the more. Very like Trump in that respect. A chip on his shoulder you could see from space.
My dad went to Dulwich (on a scholarship, long before Farage) and absolutely loathed the place with a passion. My daughter knew a few "DC boys" too from the SE London teenage party scene and says they are a pretty toxic bunch even now. I do sometimes wonder why we tolerate these madrassas of hate peddling values that seem so at odds with mainstream British culture.

See also Gove, Cummings, even Johnson to a degree. It's Orwell's theory of the Middle co-opting the Low to depose the High, then dumping them.

See also the contempt when someone from an even less charmed circle (May, Major) breaks through.

scampi25 · 8:58AM

Peter_the_Punter said:

Taz said:
Trump v The Beeb would be like the Al Fayed v Neil Hamilton court case.

It’s a shame both sides cannot lose.
The Beeb nade a mistake. It was entitled to apologise, and has done so.

For all its many faults it remains the outstanding independent news source around the world with an unequalled reputation for accuracy and impartiality. In many parts of the world it is the only means people have to find out what is going on. People risk their lives just to listen to its broadcasts because they know that it the only source which can be relied upon to give news in a reasonably impartial and balanced way.

You want it to lose? You'd prefer something like Fox presumably.

Maybe it needs to lose to re-establish it's reputation. At the moment it seems rotten to the core and we have to pay for it!

Will tactical voting stop Reform? I’m not convinced – politicalbetting.com

Comments