Just 23% of voters think Badenoch is doing a good job – politicalbetting.com

System · November 2

Just 23% of voters think Badenoch is doing a good job – politicalbetting.com

Just 23% of Britons think Kemi Badenoch has done a good job so far as Conservative leader, ahead of the first anniversary of her leadership election win this SundayGood job: 23%Bad job: 42%2024 Conservative votersGood job: 54%Bad job: 24%yougov.co.uk/politics/art…

Read the full story here

IanB2 · November 2

First! Unlike the Tories

FrancisUrquhart · November 2

Who are these 23% ? Were they bopped on the head recently?

Sandpit · November 2

So by more than 2/1, last year’s Tory voters think she’s doing a good job.

IanB2 · November 2

More Labour and Green voters think Kemi should lead the Tories into the election than think she’s doing a good job or looking like a future PM? Naughty.

Morris_Dancer · November 2

Controversially high figure.

noneoftheabove · November 2

Morris_Dancer said:
Controversially high figure.

Not really she is about the same height as Rishi.

AnneJGP · November 2

I'm with those who think it probably wouldn’t make any difference who was leader in the aftermath of such a defeat after such a long period in government.

Good morning, everybody.

Battlebus · November 2

the human colostomy bag that is Robert Jenrick

Good morning and thanks for the laugh.

Nigelb · November 2

This is surely the key metric as far as her continued leadership is concerned ?

..71% of Tory voters see the party as being in a weak state right now, but 61% of them feel that they'd be in this state no matter who was leader..

Unless someone makes a very strong case for change, and I doubt that's Jenrick, of heaven help us Lam (happy to be corrected by PB's Tories), then she'll quite possibly survive a disaster in the local educations.

The survival of the party is arguably on just as unstable footing as Badenoch's.

tlg86 · November 2

Still no details about what’s gone on the train. It’s no good politicians saying don’t speculate when the police have a policy of speculating when it suits them.

noneoftheabove · November 2

Of the 30% who think the leader does matter, 10% are with Kemi and I'd guess the other 20% split not far from 10% thinking they need someone closer to Reform and 10% closer to the traditional Conservative platform. Doomed.

Taz · November 2

tlg86 said:
Still no details about what’s gone on the train. It’s no good politicians saying don’t speculate when the police have a policy of speculating when it suits them.

There was a thread on Twitter from someone in the carriage. Sounded most traumatic as one would expect.

IanB2 · November 2

tlg86 said:
Still no details about what’s gone on the train. It’s no good politicians saying don’t speculate when the police have a policy of speculating when it suits them.

There's wall-to-wall coverage on BBC News, with all sorts of experts speculating wildly

Taz · November 2

I see it COP30 this week in Brazil. There’s been little fanfare about it in the lead up to it. A few years ago it would have had significant coverage.

Main countries aren’t bothering. Hard to see what it can achieve aside from the regular demand for ‘climate reparations’.

Nigelb · November 2

Some more Epstein docs published by Bloomberg and the NYT.

We uncovered previously undisclosed details about an 18-month money laundering investigation into Jeffrey Epstein that took place alongside the 2007 federal sex crimes probe
https://x.com/JasonLeopold/status/1984245354410480089

Seems likely that Acosta (who let Epstein off with the plea bargain) lied to Congress when he denied knowledge of any financial investigation.

ydoethur · November 2

noneoftheabove said:

Morris_Dancer said:
Controversially high figure.
Not really she is about the same height as Rishi.

Hmmm. Is somebody being sold short there?

noneoftheabove · November 2

tlg86 said:
Still no details about what’s gone on the train. It’s no good politicians saying don’t speculate when the police have a policy of speculating when it suits them.

Why does it need politicians to tell you this?

Think logically. What do you gain by jumping to a conclusion either way that will be wrong a significant percentage of the time, just wait a couple of days and live your own life.

moonshine · November 2

Taz said:

tlg86 said:
Still no details about what’s gone on the train. It’s no good politicians saying don’t speculate when the police have a policy of speculating when it suits them.
There was a thread on Twitter from someone in the carriage. Sounded most traumatic as one would expect.

@oliver_foster_ for those interested. From his description, it seems rather unlikely that they were Norwegian far right supremacists.

Hard to see how it’s sustainable to get much beyond lunchtime without charging and naming the assailants.

noneoftheabove · November 2

ydoethur said:

noneoftheabove said:

Morris_Dancer said:
Controversially high figure.
Not really she is about the same height as Rishi.
Hmmm. Is somebody being sold short there?

I may occasionally tell the odd tall story on here.

Nigelb · November 2

noneoftheabove said:

tlg86 said:
Still no details about what’s gone on the train. It’s no good politicians saying don’t speculate when the police have a policy of speculating when it suits them.
Why does it need politicians to tell you this?

Think logically. What do you gain by jumping to a conclusion either way that will be wrong a significant percentage of the time, just wait a couple of days and live your own life.

..The last update from British Transport Police was at about 01:00. We'll likely hear from authorities in the next few hours..

FrancisUrquhart · November 2

tlg86 said:
Still no details about what’s gone on the train. It’s no good politicians saying don’t speculate when the police have a policy of speculating when it suits them.

I was thinking about this the other day and thinking what used to happen. If you look back at say Lee Rigby killing, they the way the used to do it was friendly journos were briefed off the record with just enough information to get a story out e.g. they had the names of the individuals and a certain amount of back story information such as known to security services because of trips to x and y within 12hrs it was in the Guardian, Telegraph etc. That sort of info isn't available to Pc Plod.

This never seems to be the case now. I presume that at the higher levels (who will have a much better overall picture) this has now become absolutely verboten. Compare Lee Rigby to that story off a solider getting followed and stabbed up by an individual from what 18 months ago. I don't think anybody ever ran any substantial information on that.

bondegezou · November 2

The Reform supporters’ views of Badenoch aren’t bad, which may matter more than the headline national figures.

eek · November 2

IanB2 said:

tlg86 said:
Still no details about what’s gone on the train. It’s no good politicians saying don’t speculate when the police have a policy of speculating when it suits them.
There's wall-to-wall coverage on BBC News, with all sorts of experts speculating wildly

That’s the problem with 24 hour news, it has to be filled with content even if the content is utterly incorrect.

tlg86 · November 2

noneoftheabove said:

tlg86 said:
Still no details about what’s gone on the train. It’s no good politicians saying don’t speculate when the police have a policy of speculating when it suits them.
Why does it need politicians to tell you this?

Think logically. What do you gain by jumping to a conclusion either way that will be wrong a significant percentage of the time, just wait a couple of days and live your own life.

Just don’t watch the news, eh? Think about all the train passengers who weren’t stabbed yesterday.

noneoftheabove · November 2

tlg86 said:

noneoftheabove said:

tlg86 said:
Still no details about what’s gone on the train. It’s no good politicians saying don’t speculate when the police have a policy of speculating when it suits them.
Why does it need politicians to tell you this?

Think logically. What do you gain by jumping to a conclusion either way that will be wrong a significant percentage of the time, just wait a couple of days and live your own life.
Just don’t watch the news, eh? Think about all the train passengers who weren’t stabbed yesterday.

For me, accurate news is better than news which is right 70% of the time and wrong 30% of the time simply due to audience impatience.

tlg86 · November 2

noneoftheabove said:

tlg86 said:

noneoftheabove said:

tlg86 said:
Still no details about what’s gone on the train. It’s no good politicians saying don’t speculate when the police have a policy of speculating when it suits them.
Why does it need politicians to tell you this?

Think logically. What do you gain by jumping to a conclusion either way that will be wrong a significant percentage of the time, just wait a couple of days and live your own life.
Just don’t watch the news, eh? Think about all the train passengers who weren’t stabbed yesterday.
For me, accurate news is better than news which is right 70% of the time and wrong 30% of the time simply due to audience impatience.

If this was an altercation between a passenger and another passenger/member of staff, that ought to have been established by now and they should tell us.

Luckyguy1983 · November 2

23% is higher than the Tories' poll rating, which is interesting.

What percentage of voters think Sir Useless is doing a good job?

IanB2 · November 2

Nigelb said:

noneoftheabove said:

tlg86 said:
Still no details about what’s gone on the train. It’s no good politicians saying don’t speculate when the police have a policy of speculating when it suits them.
Why does it need politicians to tell you this?

Think logically. What do you gain by jumping to a conclusion either way that will be wrong a significant percentage of the time, just wait a couple of days and live your own life.
..The last update from British Transport Police was at about 01:00. We'll likely hear from authorities in the next few hours..

"A black man in his mid 20s" says a guy on the train, who was told this by other passengers but didn't see for himself.

noneoftheabove · November 2

tlg86 said:

noneoftheabove said:

tlg86 said:

noneoftheabove said:

tlg86 said:
Still no details about what’s gone on the train. It’s no good politicians saying don’t speculate when the police have a policy of speculating when it suits them.
Why does it need politicians to tell you this?

Think logically. What do you gain by jumping to a conclusion either way that will be wrong a significant percentage of the time, just wait a couple of days and live your own life.
Just don’t watch the news, eh? Think about all the train passengers who weren’t stabbed yesterday.
For me, accurate news is better than news which is right 70% of the time and wrong 30% of the time simply due to audience impatience.
If this was an altercation between a passenger and another passenger/member of staff, that ought to have been established by now and they should tell us.

Or they could get on with their investigation, make sure they have their facts right, interview witnesses before their minds are influenced by the press and then tell us.

isam · November 2

I often feel quite uneasy on trains, particularly when I go into London, and even more so when they stop between stations. It crosses my mind that something like last night in Huntingdon might happen. (I read that they stopped the train between stations, but maybe that isn’t right, haven’t heard it again since). It would be my worst nightmare, my thoughts are with the passengers

I suppose there will be more security on trains now, as there are at airports post 9/11 (not comparing the two events)

moonshine · November 2

.

Luckyguy1983 said:
23% is higher than the Tories' poll rating, which is interesting.

What percentage of voters think Sir Useless is doing a good job?

For what it’s worth, I quite like Kemi. But I don’t trust her colleagues, after the Tory party’s years of high tax/debt/immigration, and overseeing the UK’s descent into woke, softness on crime and hollowing out of national defence.

noneoftheabove · November 2

I note yesterday on pb was all about trans. Today I arrive and it is now all about trains.

squareroot2 · November 2

Why is there no information coming out about the identities of the knife attackers?

Peter_the_Punter · November 2

moonshine said:
.
Luckyguy1983 said:
23% is higher than the Tories' poll rating, which is interesting.

What percentage of voters think Sir Useless is doing a good job?
For what it’s worth, I quite like Kemi. But I don’t trust her colleagues, after the Tory party’s years of high tax/debt/immigration, and overseeing the UK’s descent into woke, softness on crime and hollowing out of national defence.

Boris hollowed out the Party at all levels. Kemi is as good a choice as any in the circumstances and a good deal better than many.

Foss · November 2

isam said:
I often feel quite uneasy on trains, particularly when I go into London, and even more so when they stop between stations. It crosses my mind that something like last night in Huntingdon might happen. (I read that they stopped the train between stations, but maybe that isn’t right, haven’t heard it again since). It would be my worst nightmare, my thoughts are with the passengers

I suppose there will be more security on trains now, as there are at airports post 9/11 (not comparing the two events)

I don’t really remember anything over here changing after the Thalys attack in ‘15.

Eabhal · November 2

noneoftheabove said:

tlg86 said:

noneoftheabove said:

tlg86 said:

noneoftheabove said:

tlg86 said:
Still no details about what’s gone on the train. It’s no good politicians saying don’t speculate when the police have a policy of speculating when it suits them.
Why does it need politicians to tell you this?

Think logically. What do you gain by jumping to a conclusion either way that will be wrong a significant percentage of the time, just wait a couple of days and live your own life.
Just don’t watch the news, eh? Think about all the train passengers who weren’t stabbed yesterday.
For me, accurate news is better than news which is right 70% of the time and wrong 30% of the time simply due to audience impatience.
If this was an altercation between a passenger and another passenger/member of staff, that ought to have been established by now and they should tell us.
Or they could get on with their investigation, make sure they have their facts right, interview witnesses before their minds are influenced by the press and then tell us.

The trouble is Merseyside Police released the identity of the Liverpool suspect in 2 hours.

I disagreed with that at the time because it felt like we were giving into the bots on twitter/Facebook - and it didn't stop thousands of feverish tweets about a race war anyway. Then came the pivot to "family man" a few hours later.

(It's also not implausible that the media team were at the pub last night and we're waiting for them to shake the hangover....)

JSpring · November 2

Those figures really aren't disastrously bad in themselves, at least not in net terms. They aren't out of line with Kinnock, Howard, Miliband and other losing party leaders, none of whom led their parties to extinction.

The problem for Badenoch is that there is now a clear alternative on the right.

Sandpit · November 2

isam said:
I often feel quite uneasy on trains, particularly when I go into London, and even more so when they stop between stations. It crosses my mind that something like last night in Huntingdon might happen. (I read that they stopped the train between stations, but maybe that isn’t right, haven’t heard it again since). It would be my worst nightmare, my thoughts are with the passengers

I suppose there will be more security on trains now, as there are at airports post 9/11 (not comparing the two events)

Yes it’s one of those nightmare scenarios, where everyone is trapped on a train that might be several minutes from being able to stop in a safe place, while there’s a lunatic with a weapon on board.

One can only hope that everyone’s okay, there’s various reports of up to a dozen people in hospital.

Suspect that BT Police will be a lot more visible on trains in the coming days and weeks, as will local armed police at major stations.

stodge · November 2

Morning all

Controversially, it's hard to anyone how anyone else in the current Conservative Party would be doing any better at this time. Jenrick would have sold the party to Reform and Stride, for all this brave talk last week, isn't much known outside Devon.

Cleverly, who is clearly @HYUFD's favourite - swapping one Essex MP for another - is perhaps (or not) going to go for the London Mayoralty in 2028 and given Sadiq has apparently said he's going to run for a fourth term (reasoning, I presume, Labour are going to lose the 2029 election and he'll have more clout as London mayor than as an out-of-favour backbench opposition MP but given his record on political analysis, it probably means Labour will win the next GE easily), has an outside chance of victory.

Beyond that, the likes of Coutinho or Lam as leader would be analogous to Romulus Augustulus as Roman Emperor in the spring of 476AD with Nigel Farage playing the role of Odoacer.

I don't think Badenoch is doing too badly after a poor start. So much will depend on the May 2026 elections in Scotland, Wales, London and elsewhere. The elections this year were off the high water mark of 2021 so losses were expected.

In 2022, the projected national shares were Labour 35%, Conservatives 30%, LDs 19%, Greens 11%. The Conservatives lost 485 seats then and will be looking to minimise 2026 losses or to have those losses look insignificant next to those of Labour. There were 4,411 seats fought in 2022 against 4,249 up for grabs next May.

numbertwelve · November 2

Eabhal said:

noneoftheabove said:

tlg86 said:

noneoftheabove said:

tlg86 said:

noneoftheabove said:

tlg86 said:
Still no details about what’s gone on the train. It’s no good politicians saying don’t speculate when the police have a policy of speculating when it suits them.
Why does it need politicians to tell you this?

Think logically. What do you gain by jumping to a conclusion either way that will be wrong a significant percentage of the time, just wait a couple of days and live your own life.
Just don’t watch the news, eh? Think about all the train passengers who weren’t stabbed yesterday.
For me, accurate news is better than news which is right 70% of the time and wrong 30% of the time simply due to audience impatience.
If this was an altercation between a passenger and another passenger/member of staff, that ought to have been established by now and they should tell us.
Or they could get on with their investigation, make sure they have their facts right, interview witnesses before their minds are influenced by the press and then tell us.
The trouble is Merseyside Police released the identity of the Liverpool suspect in 2 hours.

I disagreed with that at the time because it felt like we were giving into the bots on twitter/Facebook - and it didn't stop thousands of feverish tweets about a race war anyway. Then came the pivot to "family man" a few hours later.

(It's also not implausible that the media team were at the pub last night and we're waiting for them to shake the hangover....)

I thought Liverpool was them following this new guidance? So a bit odd we’re not seeing it here too.

malcolmg · November 2

IanB2 said:
More Labour and Green voters think Kemi should lead the Tories into the election than think she’s doing a good job or looking like a future PM? Naughty.

Labour voters ought to worry about their own donkeys, anybody should be able to thrash them and Greens are just a joke.

isam · November 2

I like Kemi, and hope she is given time. A Tory-Reform govt with her in partnership with Farage would be better than a Reform majority in my opinion.

malcolmg · November 2

Eabhal said:

noneoftheabove said:

tlg86 said:

noneoftheabove said:

tlg86 said:

noneoftheabove said:

tlg86 said:
Still no details about what’s gone on the train. It’s no good politicians saying don’t speculate when the police have a policy of speculating when it suits them.
Why does it need politicians to tell you this?

Think logically. What do you gain by jumping to a conclusion either way that will be wrong a significant percentage of the time, just wait a couple of days and live your own life.
Just don’t watch the news, eh? Think about all the train passengers who weren’t stabbed yesterday.
For me, accurate news is better than news which is right 70% of the time and wrong 30% of the time simply due to audience impatience.
If this was an altercation between a passenger and another passenger/member of staff, that ought to have been established by now and they should tell us.
Or they could get on with their investigation, make sure they have their facts right, interview witnesses before their minds are influenced by the press and then tell us.
The trouble is Merseyside Police released the identity of the Liverpool suspect in 2 hours.

I disagreed with that at the time because it felt like we were giving into the bots on twitter/Facebook - and it didn't stop thousands of feverish tweets about a race war anyway. Then came the pivot to "family man" a few hours later.

(It's also not implausible that the media team were at the pub last night and we're waiting for them to shake the hangover....)

Fact they keep it secret says it all

tlg86 · November 2

Foss said:

isam said:
I often feel quite uneasy on trains, particularly when I go into London, and even more so when they stop between stations. It crosses my mind that something like last night in Huntingdon might happen. (I read that they stopped the train between stations, but maybe that isn’t right, haven’t heard it again since). It would be my worst nightmare, my thoughts are with the passengers

I suppose there will be more security on trains now, as there are at airports post 9/11 (not comparing the two events)
I don’t really remember anything over here changing after the Thalys attack in ‘15.

The Spanish take train security very seriously with airport-style security at stations and, possibly, on the train. Between Santiago and Madrid, the train went through a shed slowly which I wondered if it was a security check of some description, but not sure.

It’s tricky. I don’t know if Spain do that for all metro-style trains or if it’s just the long distance ones. Should we do that here? Perhaps.

malcolmg · November 2

moonshine said:

Taz said:

tlg86 said:
Still no details about what’s gone on the train. It’s no good politicians saying don’t speculate when the police have a policy of speculating when it suits them.
There was a thread on Twitter from someone in the carriage. Sounded most traumatic as one would expect.
@oliver_foster_ for those interested. From his description, it seems rather unlikely that they were Norwegian far right supremacists.

Hard to see how it’s sustainable to get much beyond lunchtime without charging and naming the assailants.

who could have guessed

FrancisUrquhart · November 2

I was rather shocked to hear on R5 an interview with a former top bod in the MET who was talking about what scenarios they have in recent years "table-topped" and he admitted a train attack wasn't one of them.

You can't plan for every single possible scenario, but attacks of trains using knives have happened in a number of Europe countries on quite a few occasions.

bondegezou · November 2

tlg86 said:

Foss said:

isam said:
I often feel quite uneasy on trains, particularly when I go into London, and even more so when they stop between stations. It crosses my mind that something like last night in Huntingdon might happen. (I read that they stopped the train between stations, but maybe that isn’t right, haven’t heard it again since). It would be my worst nightmare, my thoughts are with the passengers

I suppose there will be more security on trains now, as there are at airports post 9/11 (not comparing the two events)
I don’t really remember anything over here changing after the Thalys attack in ‘15.
The Spanish take train security very seriously with airport-style security at stations and, possibly, on the train. Between Santiago and Madrid, the train went through a shed slowly which I wondered if it was a security check of some description, but not sure.

It’s tricky. I don’t know if Spain do that for all metro-style trains or if it’s just the long distance ones. Should we do that here? Perhaps.

That would seem like an unnecessary overreaction.

moonshine · November 2

isam said:
I like Kemi, and hope she is given time. A Tory-Reform govt with her in partnership with Farage would be better than a Reform majority in my opinion.

A Reform majority govt would be hindered by the lack of experience in navigating the Machiavellian corridors of Whitehall. But equally there’s not a lot of experience left in the Tory parliamentary party with that knowledge either.

So much will rest on whether Farage brings in Big Dogs from industry for his shadow cabinet or just makes Tice Chancellor in waiting.

Casino_Royale · November 2

Taz said:
I see it COP30 this week in Brazil. There’s been little fanfare about it in the lead up to it. A few years ago it would have had significant coverage.

Main countries aren’t bothering. Hard to see what it can achieve aside from the regular demand for ‘climate reparations’.

And, yet, the problem is more serious than ever.

It just goes to show how fickle and shallow much opinion is on this.

MarqueeMark · November 2

Battlebus said:
the human colostomy bag that is Robert Jenrick

Good morning and thanks for the laugh.

TSE's gonna get complaints.

From colostomy bags.

bondegezou · November 2

moonshine said:

isam said:
I like Kemi, and hope she is given time. A Tory-Reform govt with her in partnership with Farage would be better than a Reform majority in my opinion.
A Reform majority govt would be hindered by the lack of experience in navigating the Machiavellian corridors of Whitehall. But equally there’s not a lot of experience left in the Tory parliamentary party with that knowledge either.

So much will rest on whether Farage brings in Big Dogs from industry for his shadow cabinet or just makes Tice Chancellor in waiting.

Why would Big Dogs from industry have any better experience?

moonshine · November 2

bondegezou said:

moonshine said:

isam said:
I like Kemi, and hope she is given time. A Tory-Reform govt with her in partnership with Farage would be better than a Reform majority in my opinion.
A Reform majority govt would be hindered by the lack of experience in navigating the Machiavellian corridors of Whitehall. But equally there’s not a lot of experience left in the Tory parliamentary party with that knowledge either.

So much will rest on whether Farage brings in Big Dogs from industry for his shadow cabinet or just makes Tice Chancellor in waiting.
Why would Big Dogs from industry have any better experience?

They don’t have experience of Whitehall but they have run big organisations and should do better than no marks like Matt Hancock, who sums up the last 25 years of British governance for me.

Casino_Royale · November 2

squareroot2 said:
Why is there no information coming out about the identities of the knife attackers?

They were tasered and arrested so the authorities will definitely know their physical characteristics and likely their names. Maybe still unclear on their motive and their background in detail.

But they'd better get that out today or the internet rumour mill will. People will assume another cover up is in play, and then they will be overtaken by events.

MarqueeMark · November 2

squareroot2 said:
Why is there no information coming out about the identities of the knife attackers?

Seems to be some general confusion as to whether there was a single attacker or two. Just "two arrests".

Given the current state of policing, there would likely still be two arrests if there was one guy with a knife - who finally got battered almost to extinction by somebody on the train?

theProle · November 2

Sandpit said:

isam said:
I often feel quite uneasy on trains, particularly when I go into London, and even more so when they stop between stations. It crosses my mind that something like last night in Huntingdon might happen. (I read that they stopped the train between stations, but maybe that isn’t right, haven’t heard it again since). It would be my worst nightmare, my thoughts are with the passengers

I suppose there will be more security on trains now, as there are at airports post 9/11 (not comparing the two events)
Yes it’s one of those nightmare scenarios, where everyone is trapped on a train that might be several minutes from being able to stop in a safe place, while there’s a lunatic with a weapon on board.

One can only hope that everyone’s okay, there’s various reports of up to a dozen people in hospital.

Suspect that BT Police will be a lot more visible on trains in the coming days and weeks, as will local armed police at major stations.

I doubt there's enough BTP to be much more visible than they normally are. Short of putting an officer on each train (unrealistic), I'm not sure how it helps anyway - they are quite good at meeting trains at their next stop and collecting criminals for crimes committed on-board. The issue with last night's attack is it sounds like the perp didn't care about being arrested afterwards, just wanted to slice up a load of unfortunates for some reason. I'm not sure we can protect against that.

Casino_Royale · November 2

Sandpit said:

isam said:
I often feel quite uneasy on trains, particularly when I go into London, and even more so when they stop between stations. It crosses my mind that something like last night in Huntingdon might happen. (I read that they stopped the train between stations, but maybe that isn’t right, haven’t heard it again since). It would be my worst nightmare, my thoughts are with the passengers

I suppose there will be more security on trains now, as there are at airports post 9/11 (not comparing the two events)
Yes it’s one of those nightmare scenarios, where everyone is trapped on a train that might be several minutes from being able to stop in a safe place, while there’s a lunatic with a weapon on board.

One can only hope that everyone’s okay, there’s various reports of up to a dozen people in hospital.

Suspect that BT Police will be a lot more visible on trains in the coming days and weeks, as will local armed police at major stations.

The trouble is there were two of them, as I understand it.

Two lunatics at the same time in the same place doing the same thing to random members of the public, and counter-terrorism officers are involved?

Nigelb · November 2

.

moonshine said:

bondegezou said:

moonshine said:

isam said:
I like Kemi, and hope she is given time. A Tory-Reform govt with her in partnership with Farage would be better than a Reform majority in my opinion.
A Reform majority govt would be hindered by the lack of experience in navigating the Machiavellian corridors of Whitehall. But equally there’s not a lot of experience left in the Tory parliamentary party with that knowledge either.

So much will rest on whether Farage brings in Big Dogs from industry for his shadow cabinet or just makes Tice Chancellor in waiting.
Why would Big Dogs from industry have any better experience?
They don’t have experience of Whitehall but they have run big organisations and should do better than no marks like Matt Hancock, who sums up the last 25 years of British governance for me.

Which "big dogs" ?
The political history of business leaders dabbling in politics is not particularly auspicious.

Or do you just mean a few of his City mates ?

Luckyguy1983 · November 2

bondegezou said:

moonshine said:

isam said:
I like Kemi, and hope she is given time. A Tory-Reform govt with her in partnership with Farage would be better than a Reform majority in my opinion.
A Reform majority govt would be hindered by the lack of experience in navigating the Machiavellian corridors of Whitehall. But equally there’s not a lot of experience left in the Tory parliamentary party with that knowledge either.

So much will rest on whether Farage brings in Big Dogs from industry for his shadow cabinet or just makes Tice Chancellor in waiting.
Why would Big Dogs from industry have any better experience?

They won't. So you need to harness their passion but ensure they're teamed with someone with political experience. I'd include Richard Tice in that. He's a businessman whose background the economy dwarves anything within the PLP, let alone Reeves. However, he will need people alongside him with Whitehall experience.

FrancisUrquhart · November 2

MarqueeMark said:

squareroot2 said:
Why is there no information coming out about the identities of the knife attackers?
Seems to be some general confusion as to whether there was a single attacker or two. Just "two arrests".

Given the current state of policing, there would likely still be two arrests if there was one guy with a knife - who finally got battered almost to extinction by somebody on the train?

There is CCTV on every train. The authorities will now know if they arrested a rando by accident who had fought the attacker(s).

moonshine · November 2

Casino_Royale said:

Taz said:
I see it COP30 this week in Brazil. There’s been little fanfare about it in the lead up to it. A few years ago it would have had significant coverage.

Main countries aren’t bothering. Hard to see what it can achieve aside from the regular demand for ‘climate reparations’.
And, yet, the problem is more serious than ever.

It just goes to show how fickle and shallow much opinion is on this.

Musk has spoken quite a bit in the last 48 hours about climate change. I think his view is correct. This doesn’t need to be solved at the cost of all else in the next 5 years, but it needs to have been addressed roughly by the time the century is out.

In truth, man made climate change is rather low down the list for likely causes of civilisational collapse.

MarqueeMark · November 2

moonshine said:

isam said:
I like Kemi, and hope she is given time. A Tory-Reform govt with her in partnership with Farage would be better than a Reform majority in my opinion.
A Reform majority govt would be hindered by the lack of experience in navigating the Machiavellian corridors of Whitehall. But equally there’s not a lot of experience left in the Tory parliamentary party with that knowledge either.

So much will rest on whether Farage brings in Big Dogs from industry for his shadow cabinet or just makes Tice Chancellor in waiting.

Reform is Farage. End of.

Whoever he brings in will have to be entirely subordinate to his ego. In that, he is very Trumpian.

Eabhal · November 2

theProle said:

Sandpit said:

isam said:
I often feel quite uneasy on trains, particularly when I go into London, and even more so when they stop between stations. It crosses my mind that something like last night in Huntingdon might happen. (I read that they stopped the train between stations, but maybe that isn’t right, haven’t heard it again since). It would be my worst nightmare, my thoughts are with the passengers

I suppose there will be more security on trains now, as there are at airports post 9/11 (not comparing the two events)
Yes it’s one of those nightmare scenarios, where everyone is trapped on a train that might be several minutes from being able to stop in a safe place, while there’s a lunatic with a weapon on board.

One can only hope that everyone’s okay, there’s various reports of up to a dozen people in hospital.

Suspect that BT Police will be a lot more visible on trains in the coming days and weeks, as will local armed police at major stations.
I doubt there's enough BTP to be much more visible than they normally are. Short of putting an officer on each train (unrealistic), I'm not sure how it helps anyway - they are quite good at meeting trains at their next stop and collecting criminals for crimes committed on-board. The issue with last night's attack is it sounds like the perp didn't care about being arrested afterwards, just wanted to slice up a load of unfortunates for some reason. I'm not sure we can protect against that.

Yes, it's quite impressive how they open a couple of doors when you arrive at the station and drag the miscreant out. From their twitter feed, it just sounds like an endless succession of sexual assaults.

Luckyguy1983 · November 2

moonshine said:

Casino_Royale said:

Taz said:
I see it COP30 this week in Brazil. There’s been little fanfare about it in the lead up to it. A few years ago it would have had significant coverage.

Main countries aren’t bothering. Hard to see what it can achieve aside from the regular demand for ‘climate reparations’.
And, yet, the problem is more serious than ever.

It just goes to show how fickle and shallow much opinion is on this.
Musk has spoken quite a bit in the last 48 hours about climate change. I think his view is correct. This doesn’t need to be solved at the cost of all else in the next 5 years, but it needs to have been addressed roughly by the time the century is out.

In truth, man made climate change is rather low down the list for likely causes of civilisational collapse.

A lot of the recent warming has been caused by regulations on sulphur in maritime fuel, and a plausible solution is for vessels to spray sea water in the air (to form clouds). Why don't we jfdi?

MarqueeMark · November 2

FrancisUrquhart said:

MarqueeMark said:

squareroot2 said:
Why is there no information coming out about the identities of the knife attackers?
Seems to be some general confusion as to whether there was a single attacker or two. Just "two arrests".

Given the current state of policing, there would likely still be two arrests if there was one guy with a knife - who finally got battered almost to extinction by somebody on the train?
There is CCTV on every train. The authorities will now know if they arrested a rando by accident who had fought the attacker(s).

I'm not suggesting "by accident". I'm suggesting they will be charging him with attempted murder too...

Foss · November 2

Casino_Royale said:

Sandpit said:

isam said:
I often feel quite uneasy on trains, particularly when I go into London, and even more so when they stop between stations. It crosses my mind that something like last night in Huntingdon might happen. (I read that they stopped the train between stations, but maybe that isn’t right, haven’t heard it again since). It would be my worst nightmare, my thoughts are with the passengers

I suppose there will be more security on trains now, as there are at airports post 9/11 (not comparing the two events)
Yes it’s one of those nightmare scenarios, where everyone is trapped on a train that might be several minutes from being able to stop in a safe place, while there’s a lunatic with a weapon on board.

One can only hope that everyone’s okay, there’s various reports of up to a dozen people in hospital.

Suspect that BT Police will be a lot more visible on trains in the coming days and weeks, as will local armed police at major stations.
The trouble is there were two of them, as I understand it.

Two lunatics at the same time in the same place doing the same thing to random members of the public, and counter-terrorism officers are involved?

Two means potentially one at each end of a carriage with nowhere to run. We may have got very lucky with the current injury count.

Nigelb · November 2

Quite possibly true.

We now live in a world where the former al-Qaeda guy running Syria is less corrupt than the American president
https://x.com/JeremiahDJohns/status/1984845939337494528

Reuters reports that Syria's president Ahmad al-Sharaa closed the business office of his brother and warned his family 'against exploiting the family name for personal gain'
https://x.com/spectatorindex/status/1984175646269227256

Eabhal · November 2

moonshine said:

Casino_Royale said:

Taz said:
I see it COP30 this week in Brazil. There’s been little fanfare about it in the lead up to it. A few years ago it would have had significant coverage.

Main countries aren’t bothering. Hard to see what it can achieve aside from the regular demand for ‘climate reparations’.
And, yet, the problem is more serious than ever.

It just goes to show how fickle and shallow much opinion is on this.
Musk has spoken quite a bit in the last 48 hours about climate change. I think his view is correct. This doesn’t need to be solved at the cost of all else in the next 5 years, but it needs to have been addressed roughly by the time the century is out.

In truth, man made climate change is rather low down the list for likely causes of civilisational collapse.

That's not really how climate change works though, is it?

It's going to be exceptionally difficult to reverse and, while there is enormous uncertainty about the severity and nature of the ongoing damage, it's almost certainly better value to reduce emissions now than spend billions on flood defences and deal with mass migration from Africa, crop blight etc etc. Or at least it is if you are younger or care about the next few generations.

The same people who were denying climate change existed have now reached a final, late stage of denialism where they insist it's not worth doing anything about. It's pathetic and transparent.

Battlebus · November 2

tlg86 said:

Foss said:

isam said:
I often feel quite uneasy on trains, particularly when I go into London, and even more so when they stop between stations. It crosses my mind that something like last night in Huntingdon might happen. (I read that they stopped the train between stations, but maybe that isn’t right, haven’t heard it again since). It would be my worst nightmare, my thoughts are with the passengers

I suppose there will be more security on trains now, as there are at airports post 9/11 (not comparing the two events)
I don’t really remember anything over here changing after the Thalys attack in ‘15.
The Spanish take train security very seriously with airport-style security at stations and, possibly, on the train. Between Santiago and Madrid, the train went through a shed slowly which I wondered if it was a security check of some description, but not sure.

It’s tricky. I don’t know if Spain do that for all metro-style trains or if it’s just the long distance ones. Should we do that here? Perhaps.

Madrid train bombing in 2004. It's usually the high speed ones. Regional/Media Distancia don't usually have checks.

https://www.ebsco.com/research-starters/diplomacy-and-international-relations/madrid-commuter-train-bombing

Stuartinromford · November 2

moonshine said:

bondegezou said:

moonshine said:

isam said:
I like Kemi, and hope she is given time. A Tory-Reform govt with her in partnership with Farage would be better than a Reform majority in my opinion.
A Reform majority govt would be hindered by the lack of experience in navigating the Machiavellian corridors of Whitehall. But equally there’s not a lot of experience left in the Tory parliamentary party with that knowledge either.

So much will rest on whether Farage brings in Big Dogs from industry for his shadow cabinet or just makes Tice Chancellor in waiting.
Why would Big Dogs from industry have any better experience?
They don’t have experience of Whitehall but they have run big organisations and should do better than no marks like Matt Hancock, who sums up the last 25 years of British governance for me.

Starmer had run a big organisation- the CPS. That experience doesn't seem to be helping him much. The dynamics and constraints on the boss are totally different.

Farage's "unelected Cabinet of top people" currently seems like a bit of sticking plaster over the accusation that he wouldn't have enough experienced MPs to form a government, and that the ones he has fall into the fruitcakes, loonies and closet racists category. Except with less of the closeting these days.

As for the answer, perhaps we have to accept that cabinet jobs are now mostly too big for one brain to process, and decide what to do about that.

Mexicanpete · November 2

isam said:
I like Kemi, and hope she is given time. A Tory-Reform govt with her in partnership with Farage would be better than a Reform majority in my opinion.

A coalition of all the talents?

It's not my problem, but I suspect if the Conservatives became junior partners in a RefCon coalition that would be an event too far for their long term survival. I don't believe the R A Butler wing of the party would ever return to the fold.

Just to add balance, I suspect the Labour Party's prospects for survival past 2029 are even more perilous. A political party without direction, let alone ideology (and that goes for the Tories too) doesn't deserve to survive, let alone thrive. That doesn't bother me in a way it once would have.

moonshine · November 2

Eabhal said:

moonshine said:

Casino_Royale said:

Taz said:
I see it COP30 this week in Brazil. There’s been little fanfare about it in the lead up to it. A few years ago it would have had significant coverage.

Main countries aren’t bothering. Hard to see what it can achieve aside from the regular demand for ‘climate reparations’.
And, yet, the problem is more serious than ever.

It just goes to show how fickle and shallow much opinion is on this.
Musk has spoken quite a bit in the last 48 hours about climate change. I think his view is correct. This doesn’t need to be solved at the cost of all else in the next 5 years, but it needs to have been addressed roughly by the time the century is out.

In truth, man made climate change is rather low down the list for likely causes of civilisational collapse.
That's not really how climate change works though, is it?

It's going to be exceptionally difficult to reverse and, while their is enormous uncertainty about the severity and nature of the ongoing damage, it's almost certainly better value to reduce emissions now than spend billions on flood defences and deal with mass migration from Africa, crop blight etc etc. Or at least it is if you are younger or care about the next few generations.

The same people who were denying climate change existed have now reached a final, late stage of denialism where they insist it's not worth doing anything about. It's pathetic and transparent.

It’s not worth it at the cost of all else, which is the Miliband approach. You do that which is most economic and not that which is not. It’s rather extraordinary by the way to characterise Musk as a climate denialist and rather undermines your opinion on this matter.

Sandpit · November 2

Casino_Royale said:

Sandpit said:

isam said:
I often feel quite uneasy on trains, particularly when I go into London, and even more so when they stop between stations. It crosses my mind that something like last night in Huntingdon might happen. (I read that they stopped the train between stations, but maybe that isn’t right, haven’t heard it again since). It would be my worst nightmare, my thoughts are with the passengers

I suppose there will be more security on trains now, as there are at airports post 9/11 (not comparing the two events)
Yes it’s one of those nightmare scenarios, where everyone is trapped on a train that might be several minutes from being able to stop in a safe place, while there’s a lunatic with a weapon on board.

One can only hope that everyone’s okay, there’s various reports of up to a dozen people in hospital.

Suspect that BT Police will be a lot more visible on trains in the coming days and weeks, as will local armed police at major stations.
The trouble is there were two of them, as I understand it.

Two lunatics at the same time in the same place doing the same thing to random members of the public, and counter-terrorism officers are involved?

There’s been two arrests, which isn’t necessarily the same thing.

Two perps suggests something organised, terroristic in nature, whereas one perp could be a lone nutter with a mental health issue or on too many drugs.

One arrested for being the guy with the knife, and another arrested for beating the crap out of the first guy, is also plausible. Even if the second guy doesn’t get charged once the evidence and CCTV is reviewed, they’d still want to detain him at the scene.

tlg86 · November 2

Battlebus said:

tlg86 said:

Foss said:

isam said:
I often feel quite uneasy on trains, particularly when I go into London, and even more so when they stop between stations. It crosses my mind that something like last night in Huntingdon might happen. (I read that they stopped the train between stations, but maybe that isn’t right, haven’t heard it again since). It would be my worst nightmare, my thoughts are with the passengers

I suppose there will be more security on trains now, as there are at airports post 9/11 (not comparing the two events)
I don’t really remember anything over here changing after the Thalys attack in ‘15.
The Spanish take train security very seriously with airport-style security at stations and, possibly, on the train. Between Santiago and Madrid, the train went through a shed slowly which I wondered if it was a security check of some description, but not sure.

It’s tricky. I don’t know if Spain do that for all metro-style trains or if it’s just the long distance ones. Should we do that here? Perhaps.
Madrid train bombing in 2004. It's usually the high speed ones. Regional/Media Distancia don't usually have checks.

https://www.ebsco.com/research-starters/diplomacy-and-international-relations/madrid-commuter-train-bombing

That’s what I thought when I was in Spain. But it seems a bit illogical as the attacks were on trains which I assume don’t have airport-style security.

Sandpit · November 2

IIRC, the only train in the UK with airport-style security is the Eurostar, which is as much about customs checks as the safety of the train, although IIRC they do confiscate weapons that would otherwise be allowed though customs.

Edit: https://www.eurostar.com/uk-en/travel-info/travel-planning/luggage/prohibited-items#Prohibited-items

moonshine · November 2

Mexicanpete said:

isam said:
I like Kemi, and hope she is given time. A Tory-Reform govt with her in partnership with Farage would be better than a Reform majority in my opinion.
A coalition of all the talents?

It's not my problem, but I suspect if the Conservatives became junior partners in a RefCon coalition that would be an event too far for their long term survival. I don't believe the R A Butler wing of the party would ever return to the fold.

Just to add balance, I suspect the Labour Party's prospects for survival past 2029 are even more perilous. A political party without direction, let alone ideology (and that goes for the Tories too) doesn't deserve to survive, let alone thrive. That doesn't bother me in a way it once would have.

The Tories saw the Lib Dems plight up close from 2010 onwards. I’d be astonished if they joined a formal coalition, unless it was a permanent merger of the parties, which feels even more unlikely.

Eabhal · November 2

moonshine said:

Eabhal said:

moonshine said:

Casino_Royale said:

Taz said:
I see it COP30 this week in Brazil. There’s been little fanfare about it in the lead up to it. A few years ago it would have had significant coverage.

Main countries aren’t bothering. Hard to see what it can achieve aside from the regular demand for ‘climate reparations’.
And, yet, the problem is more serious than ever.

It just goes to show how fickle and shallow much opinion is on this.
Musk has spoken quite a bit in the last 48 hours about climate change. I think his view is correct. This doesn’t need to be solved at the cost of all else in the next 5 years, but it needs to have been addressed roughly by the time the century is out.

In truth, man made climate change is rather low down the list for likely causes of civilisational collapse.
That's not really how climate change works though, is it?

It's going to be exceptionally difficult to reverse and, while their is enormous uncertainty about the severity and nature of the ongoing damage, it's almost certainly better value to reduce emissions now than spend billions on flood defences and deal with mass migration from Africa, crop blight etc etc. Or at least it is if you are younger or care about the next few generations.

The same people who were denying climate change existed have now reached a final, late stage of denialism where they insist it's not worth doing anything about. It's pathetic and transparent.
It’s not worth it at the cost of all else, which is the Miliband approach. You do that which is most economic and not that which is not. It’s rather extraordinary by the way to characterise Musk as a climate denialist and rather undermines your opinion on this matter.

I didn't call Musk a denialist, did I? Miliband's approach is almost indistinguishable from the previous government.

Anyway, the logical outcome from this kind of debate is we need to think about investing much more in adaptation. Flooding is the obvious one (particularly SE England).

Battlebus · November 2

tlg86 said:

Battlebus said:

tlg86 said:

Foss said:

isam said:
I often feel quite uneasy on trains, particularly when I go into London, and even more so when they stop between stations. It crosses my mind that something like last night in Huntingdon might happen. (I read that they stopped the train between stations, but maybe that isn’t right, haven’t heard it again since). It would be my worst nightmare, my thoughts are with the passengers

I suppose there will be more security on trains now, as there are at airports post 9/11 (not comparing the two events)
I don’t really remember anything over here changing after the Thalys attack in ‘15.
The Spanish take train security very seriously with airport-style security at stations and, possibly, on the train. Between Santiago and Madrid, the train went through a shed slowly which I wondered if it was a security check of some description, but not sure.

It’s tricky. I don’t know if Spain do that for all metro-style trains or if it’s just the long distance ones. Should we do that here? Perhaps.
Madrid train bombing in 2004. It's usually the high speed ones. Regional/Media Distancia don't usually have checks.

https://www.ebsco.com/research-starters/diplomacy-and-international-relations/madrid-commuter-train-bombing
That’s what I thought when I was in Spain. But it seems a bit illogical as the attacks were on trains which I assume don’t have airport-style security.

4 bombs. 191 dead. 1800 injured - Don't think it could be classed as an overreaction . However you have had knife incidents in Germany this year and earlier. From a family member who works at a rail station, the BTP are very thin on the ground and because of the separation of the legislation, local police don't respond to (minor) incidents but will relay to the issue to BTP. Getting close to there being a need for merging the two forces - or one national (E& W) force.

moonshine · November 2

Sandpit said:
IIRC, the only train in the UK with airport-style security is the Eurostar, which is as much about customs checks as the safety of the train, although IIRC they do confiscate weapons that would otherwise be allowed though customs.

Edit: https://www.eurostar.com/uk-en/travel-info/travel-planning/luggage/prohibited-items#Prohibited-items

They can’t stop some meaningful percentage of people travelling on commuter trains without tickets. Laughable to think you can stop this sort of attack through screening.

It’s a cost of living in a high trust society and the solution and the solutions are sorry to say, rather more difficult and politically difficult than scanning bags.

Dopermean · November 2

I'm surprised only 30% of Reform voters want her to lead the Conservatives at the next GE.
Labour is more understandable as a slightly less useless Conservative leader might split the RefCon vote more evenly.

moonshine · November 2

Eabhal said:

moonshine said:

Eabhal said:

moonshine said:

Casino_Royale said:

Taz said:
I see it COP30 this week in Brazil. There’s been little fanfare about it in the lead up to it. A few years ago it would have had significant coverage.

Main countries aren’t bothering. Hard to see what it can achieve aside from the regular demand for ‘climate reparations’.
And, yet, the problem is more serious than ever.

It just goes to show how fickle and shallow much opinion is on this.
Musk has spoken quite a bit in the last 48 hours about climate change. I think his view is correct. This doesn’t need to be solved at the cost of all else in the next 5 years, but it needs to have been addressed roughly by the time the century is out.

In truth, man made climate change is rather low down the list for likely causes of civilisational collapse.
That's not really how climate change works though, is it?

It's going to be exceptionally difficult to reverse and, while their is enormous uncertainty about the severity and nature of the ongoing damage, it's almost certainly better value to reduce emissions now than spend billions on flood defences and deal with mass migration from Africa, crop blight etc etc. Or at least it is if you are younger or care about the next few generations.

The same people who were denying climate change existed have now reached a final, late stage of denialism where they insist it's not worth doing anything about. It's pathetic and transparent.
It’s not worth it at the cost of all else, which is the Miliband approach. You do that which is most economic and not that which is not. It’s rather extraordinary by the way to characterise Musk as a climate denialist and rather undermines your opinion on this matter.
I didn't call Musk a denialist, did I? Miliband's approach is almost indistinguishable from the previous government.

Anyway, the logical outcome from this kind of debate is we need to think about investing much more in adaptation. Flooding is the obvious one (particularly SE England).

That swooshing noise is the sound of you rowing back.

Casino_Royale · November 2

Sandpit said:

Casino_Royale said:

Sandpit said:

isam said:
I often feel quite uneasy on trains, particularly when I go into London, and even more so when they stop between stations. It crosses my mind that something like last night in Huntingdon might happen. (I read that they stopped the train between stations, but maybe that isn’t right, haven’t heard it again since). It would be my worst nightmare, my thoughts are with the passengers

I suppose there will be more security on trains now, as there are at airports post 9/11 (not comparing the two events)
Yes it’s one of those nightmare scenarios, where everyone is trapped on a train that might be several minutes from being able to stop in a safe place, while there’s a lunatic with a weapon on board.

One can only hope that everyone’s okay, there’s various reports of up to a dozen people in hospital.

Suspect that BT Police will be a lot more visible on trains in the coming days and weeks, as will local armed police at major stations.
The trouble is there were two of them, as I understand it.

Two lunatics at the same time in the same place doing the same thing to random members of the public, and counter-terrorism officers are involved?
There’s been two arrests, which isn’t necessarily the same thing.

Two perps suggests something organised, terroristic in nature, whereas one perp could be a lone nutter with a mental health issue or on too many drugs.

One arrested for being the guy with the knife, and another arrested for beating the crap out of the first guy, is also plausible. Even if the second guy doesn’t get charged once the evidence and CCTV is reviewed, they’d still want to detain him at the scene.

Yes, that's possible.

SandyRentool · November 2

stodge said:
Morning all

Controversially, it's hard to anyone how anyone else in the current Conservative Party would be doing any better at this time. Jenrick would have sold the party to Reform and Stride, for all this brave talk last week, isn't much known outside Devon.

Cleverly, who is clearly @HYUFD's favourite - swapping one Essex MP for another - is perhaps (or not) going to go for the London Mayoralty in 2028 and given Sadiq has apparently said he's going to run for a fourth term (reasoning, I presume, Labour are going to lose the 2029 election and he'll have more clout as London mayor than as an out-of-favour backbench opposition MP but given his record on political analysis, it probably means Labour will win the next GE easily), has an outside chance of victory.

Beyond that, the likes of Coutinho or Lam as leader would be analogous to Romulus Augustulus as Roman Emperor in the spring of 476AD with Nigel Farage playing the role of Odoacer.

I don't think Badenoch is doing too badly after a poor start. So much will depend on the May 2026 elections in Scotland, Wales, London and elsewhere. The elections this year were off the high water mark of 2021 so losses were expected.

In 2022, the projected national shares were Labour 35%, Conservatives 30%, LDs 19%, Greens 11%. The Conservatives lost 485 seats then and will be looking to minimise 2026 losses or to have those losses look insignificant next to those of Labour. There were 4,411 seats fought in 2022 against 4,249 up for grabs next May.

"elections in Scotland, Wales, London and elsewhere"

Good morning from Elsewhere, where Labour are in for a drubbing.

Luckyguy1983 · November 2

Eabhal said:

moonshine said:

Eabhal said:

moonshine said:

Casino_Royale said:

Taz said:
I see it COP30 this week in Brazil. There’s been little fanfare about it in the lead up to it. A few years ago it would have had significant coverage.

Main countries aren’t bothering. Hard to see what it can achieve aside from the regular demand for ‘climate reparations’.
And, yet, the problem is more serious than ever.

It just goes to show how fickle and shallow much opinion is on this.
Musk has spoken quite a bit in the last 48 hours about climate change. I think his view is correct. This doesn’t need to be solved at the cost of all else in the next 5 years, but it needs to have been addressed roughly by the time the century is out.

In truth, man made climate change is rather low down the list for likely causes of civilisational collapse.
That's not really how climate change works though, is it?

It's going to be exceptionally difficult to reverse and, while their is enormous uncertainty about the severity and nature of the ongoing damage, it's almost certainly better value to reduce emissions now than spend billions on flood defences and deal with mass migration from Africa, crop blight etc etc. Or at least it is if you are younger or care about the next few generations.

The same people who were denying climate change existed have now reached a final, late stage of denialism where they insist it's not worth doing anything about. It's pathetic and transparent.
It’s not worth it at the cost of all else, which is the Miliband approach. You do that which is most economic and not that which is not. It’s rather extraordinary by the way to characterise Musk as a climate denialist and rather undermines your opinion on this matter.
I didn't call Musk a denialist, did I? Miliband's approach is almost indistinguishable from the previous government.

Anyway, the logical outcome from this kind of debate is we need to think about investing much more in adaptation. Flooding is the obvious one (particularly SE England).

Dredge the rivers. Build more reservoirs to store the water, so we don't have winter floods and summer droughts every sodding year. Old school actual water management, as banned by the EU's absurd habitats regulations - the ones we no longer have to abide by. Next.

Foss · November 2

moonshine said:

Sandpit said:
IIRC, the only train in the UK with airport-style security is the Eurostar, which is as much about customs checks as the safety of the train, although IIRC they do confiscate weapons that would otherwise be allowed though customs.

Edit: https://www.eurostar.com/uk-en/travel-info/travel-planning/luggage/prohibited-items#Prohibited-items

They can’t stop some meaningful percentage of people travelling on commuter trains without tickets. Laughable to think you can stop this sort of attack through screening.

It’s a cost of a living high trust society and the solution and the solutions are sorry to say, rather more difficult and politically difficult than scanning bags.

It’s the cost of living in a formerly high trust society that hasn’t yet adapted to its now lowered state.

tlg86 · November 2

Listening to Sky News just now, it sounds like one person with a knife and two arrests. I think @MarqueeMark is right that we shouldn’t assume that there were two perpetrators.

Casino_Royale · November 2

moonshine said:

Casino_Royale said:

Taz said:
I see it COP30 this week in Brazil. There’s been little fanfare about it in the lead up to it. A few years ago it would have had significant coverage.

Main countries aren’t bothering. Hard to see what it can achieve aside from the regular demand for ‘climate reparations’.
And, yet, the problem is more serious than ever.

It just goes to show how fickle and shallow much opinion is on this.
Musk has spoken quite a bit in the last 48 hours about climate change. I think his view is correct. This doesn’t need to be solved at the cost of all else in the next 5 years, but it needs to have been addressed roughly by the time the century is out.

In truth, man made climate change is rather low down the list for likely causes of civilisational collapse.

It needs to be solved much sooner than that, but it probably won't be until the end of the century.

Which means about 2.5-3C of warming and very serious consequences.

Morris_Dancer · November 2

SandyRentool said:

stodge said:
Morning all

Controversially, it's hard to anyone how anyone else in the current Conservative Party would be doing any better at this time. Jenrick would have sold the party to Reform and Stride, for all this brave talk last week, isn't much known outside Devon.

Cleverly, who is clearly @HYUFD's favourite - swapping one Essex MP for another - is perhaps (or not) going to go for the London Mayoralty in 2028 and given Sadiq has apparently said he's going to run for a fourth term (reasoning, I presume, Labour are going to lose the 2029 election and he'll have more clout as London mayor than as an out-of-favour backbench opposition MP but given his record on political analysis, it probably means Labour will win the next GE easily), has an outside chance of victory.

Beyond that, the likes of Coutinho or Lam as leader would be analogous to Romulus Augustulus as Roman Emperor in the spring of 476AD with Nigel Farage playing the role of Odoacer.

I don't think Badenoch is doing too badly after a poor start. So much will depend on the May 2026 elections in Scotland, Wales, London and elsewhere. The elections this year were off the high water mark of 2021 so losses were expected.

In 2022, the projected national shares were Labour 35%, Conservatives 30%, LDs 19%, Greens 11%. The Conservatives lost 485 seats then and will be looking to minimise 2026 losses or to have those losses look insignificant next to those of Labour. There were 4,411 seats fought in 2022 against 4,249 up for grabs next May.
"elections in Scotland, Wales, London and elsewhere"

Good morning from Elsewhere, where Labour are in for a drubbing.

Elsweyr is where the khajiit come from.

Sandpit · November 2

According to Wiki:

As of September 2025, BTP had a workforce of 2,852 police officers, 1,619 police staff & designated officers, 189 police community support officers, 211 special constables, and 42 support volunteers.

That’s not many for 10,000 miles of railway track, and includes a number of special teams for major incident response.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_Transport_Police

Eabhal · November 2

Luckyguy1983 said:

Eabhal said:

moonshine said:

Eabhal said:

moonshine said:

Casino_Royale said:

Taz said:
I see it COP30 this week in Brazil. There’s been little fanfare about it in the lead up to it. A few years ago it would have had significant coverage.

Main countries aren’t bothering. Hard to see what it can achieve aside from the regular demand for ‘climate reparations’.
And, yet, the problem is more serious than ever.

It just goes to show how fickle and shallow much opinion is on this.
Musk has spoken quite a bit in the last 48 hours about climate change. I think his view is correct. This doesn’t need to be solved at the cost of all else in the next 5 years, but it needs to have been addressed roughly by the time the century is out.

In truth, man made climate change is rather low down the list for likely causes of civilisational collapse.
That's not really how climate change works though, is it?

It's going to be exceptionally difficult to reverse and, while their is enormous uncertainty about the severity and nature of the ongoing damage, it's almost certainly better value to reduce emissions now than spend billions on flood defences and deal with mass migration from Africa, crop blight etc etc. Or at least it is if you are younger or care about the next few generations.

The same people who were denying climate change existed have now reached a final, late stage of denialism where they insist it's not worth doing anything about. It's pathetic and transparent.
It’s not worth it at the cost of all else, which is the Miliband approach. You do that which is most economic and not that which is not. It’s rather extraordinary by the way to characterise Musk as a climate denialist and rather undermines your opinion on this matter.
I didn't call Musk a denialist, did I? Miliband's approach is almost indistinguishable from the previous government.

Anyway, the logical outcome from this kind of debate is we need to think about investing much more in adaptation. Flooding is the obvious one (particularly SE England).
Dredge the rivers. Build more reservoirs to store the water, so we don't have winter floods and summer droughts every sodding year. Old school actual water management, as banned by the EU's absurd habitats regulations - the ones we no longer have to abide by. Next.

Dredge the rivers is hilariously wrong. Just ridiculous. Happily we have experts working hard to find ways to reduce flooding and advising the government so we don't repeat the stupidity of the past.

SandyRentool · November 2

tlg86 said:

Foss said:

isam said:
I often feel quite uneasy on trains, particularly when I go into London, and even more so when they stop between stations. It crosses my mind that something like last night in Huntingdon might happen. (I read that they stopped the train between stations, but maybe that isn’t right, haven’t heard it again since). It would be my worst nightmare, my thoughts are with the passengers

I suppose there will be more security on trains now, as there are at airports post 9/11 (not comparing the two events)
I don’t really remember anything over here changing after the Thalys attack in ‘15.
The Spanish take train security very seriously with airport-style security at stations and, possibly, on the train. Between Santiago and Madrid, the train went through a shed slowly which I wondered if it was a security check of some description, but not sure.

It’s tricky. I don’t know if Spain do that for all metro-style trains or if it’s just the long distance ones. Should we do that here? Perhaps.

Every intercity train?

Every local train?

Every tube and metro service?

Every bus?

Totally impractical.

Nigelb · November 2

Another very interesting long read on the Ukraine war, with important and urgent lessons for our defence procurement.

Is the Ukraine War an RMA?
https://www.chinatalk.media/p/ukraines-drone-war

SandyRentool · November 2

Casino_Royale said:

Taz said:
I see it COP30 this week in Brazil. There’s been little fanfare about it in the lead up to it. A few years ago it would have had significant coverage.

Main countries aren’t bothering. Hard to see what it can achieve aside from the regular demand for ‘climate reparations’.
And, yet, the problem is more serious than ever.

It just goes to show how fickle and shallow much opinion is on this.

Just look at Greta. Completely forgotten about climate change and wrapped herself in a Palestinian flag.

Carnyx · November 2

Battlebus said:

tlg86 said:

Battlebus said:

tlg86 said:

Foss said:

isam said:
I often feel quite uneasy on trains, particularly when I go into London, and even more so when they stop between stations. It crosses my mind that something like last night in Huntingdon might happen. (I read that they stopped the train between stations, but maybe that isn’t right, haven’t heard it again since). It would be my worst nightmare, my thoughts are with the passengers

I suppose there will be more security on trains now, as there are at airports post 9/11 (not comparing the two events)
I don’t really remember anything over here changing after the Thalys attack in ‘15.
The Spanish take train security very seriously with airport-style security at stations and, possibly, on the train. Between Santiago and Madrid, the train went through a shed slowly which I wondered if it was a security check of some description, but not sure.

It’s tricky. I don’t know if Spain do that for all metro-style trains or if it’s just the long distance ones. Should we do that here? Perhaps.
Madrid train bombing in 2004. It's usually the high speed ones. Regional/Media Distancia don't usually have checks.

https://www.ebsco.com/research-starters/diplomacy-and-international-relations/madrid-commuter-train-bombing
That’s what I thought when I was in Spain. But it seems a bit illogical as the attacks were on trains which I assume don’t have airport-style security.
4 bombs. 191 dead. 1800 injured - Don't think it could be classed as an overreaction . However you have had knife incidents in Germany this year and earlier. From a family member who works at a rail station, the BTP are very thin on the ground and because of the separation of the legislation, local police don't respond to (minor) incidents but will relay to the issue to BTP. Getting close to there being a need for merging the two forces - or one national (E& W) force.

Intderesting. However, BTP also operate in Wales and Scotland, so something will need to be done about that.

There were proposals to do that in Scotland about a decade ago follolwing Westminster legislation to give SG oversight of BTP in Scotland. However, it got slowed/derailed for various reasons. Committee solution adopted. THose issues might well apply also to any southern merger.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-48766423

moonshine · November 2

Luckyguy1983 said:

Eabhal said:

moonshine said:

Eabhal said:

moonshine said:

Casino_Royale said:

Taz said:
I see it COP30 this week in Brazil. There’s been little fanfare about it in the lead up to it. A few years ago it would have had significant coverage.

Main countries aren’t bothering. Hard to see what it can achieve aside from the regular demand for ‘climate reparations’.
And, yet, the problem is more serious than ever.

It just goes to show how fickle and shallow much opinion is on this.
Musk has spoken quite a bit in the last 48 hours about climate change. I think his view is correct. This doesn’t need to be solved at the cost of all else in the next 5 years, but it needs to have been addressed roughly by the time the century is out.

In truth, man made climate change is rather low down the list for likely causes of civilisational collapse.
That's not really how climate change works though, is it?

It's going to be exceptionally difficult to reverse and, while their is enormous uncertainty about the severity and nature of the ongoing damage, it's almost certainly better value to reduce emissions now than spend billions on flood defences and deal with mass migration from Africa, crop blight etc etc. Or at least it is if you are younger or care about the next few generations.

The same people who were denying climate change existed have now reached a final, late stage of denialism where they insist it's not worth doing anything about. It's pathetic and transparent.
It’s not worth it at the cost of all else, which is the Miliband approach. You do that which is most economic and not that which is not. It’s rather extraordinary by the way to characterise Musk as a climate denialist and rather undermines your opinion on this matter.
I didn't call Musk a denialist, did I? Miliband's approach is almost indistinguishable from the previous government.

Anyway, the logical outcome from this kind of debate is we need to think about investing much more in adaptation. Flooding is the obvious one (particularly SE England).
Dredge the rivers. Build more reservoirs to store the water, so we don't have winter floods and summer droughts every sodding year. Old school actual water management, as banned by the EU's absurd habitats regulations - the ones we no longer have to abide by. Next.

There are two main methods of flood prevention.

One of them is by speeding up how fast water travels to the sea by dredging and channelisation. The problem with this is that underperformance anywhere from source to sea causes localised catastrophe.

The other is by slowing down how quickly water reaches population centres. You achieve this by reinstating meanders, woodland and wetlands along the way, so that the ground acts as a sponge. Soaking up sudden downpours and slowly releasing it over weeks. This has rather nice wildlife benefits but takes up more land. See Knepp.

It’s not beyond our wit to combine these two approaches. Hard engineering solutions within and just downstream of population centres and sort solutions upstream. The same is true even within population centres, permeable paving as the norm with proper spend on drainage.

tlg86 · November 2

SandyRentool said:

tlg86 said:

Foss said:

isam said:
I often feel quite uneasy on trains, particularly when I go into London, and even more so when they stop between stations. It crosses my mind that something like last night in Huntingdon might happen. (I read that they stopped the train between stations, but maybe that isn’t right, haven’t heard it again since). It would be my worst nightmare, my thoughts are with the passengers

I suppose there will be more security on trains now, as there are at airports post 9/11 (not comparing the two events)
I don’t really remember anything over here changing after the Thalys attack in ‘15.
The Spanish take train security very seriously with airport-style security at stations and, possibly, on the train. Between Santiago and Madrid, the train went through a shed slowly which I wondered if it was a security check of some description, but not sure.

It’s tricky. I don’t know if Spain do that for all metro-style trains or if it’s just the long distance ones. Should we do that here? Perhaps.
Every intercity train?

Every local train?

Every tube and metro service?

Every bus?

Totally impractical.

What Spain do isn’t impractical. Whether it’s logical, I don’t know.

I guess you could argue that gaps between stations makes a difference.

Foxy · November 2

Casino_Royale said:

moonshine said:

Casino_Royale said:

Taz said:
I see it COP30 this week in Brazil. There’s been little fanfare about it in the lead up to it. A few years ago it would have had significant coverage.

Main countries aren’t bothering. Hard to see what it can achieve aside from the regular demand for ‘climate reparations’.
And, yet, the problem is more serious than ever.

It just goes to show how fickle and shallow much opinion is on this.
Musk has spoken quite a bit in the last 48 hours about climate change. I think his view is correct. This doesn’t need to be solved at the cost of all else in the next 5 years, but it needs to have been addressed roughly by the time the century is out.

In truth, man made climate change is rather low down the list for likely causes of civilisational collapse.
It needs to be solved much sooner than that, but it probably won't be until the end of the century.

Which means about 2.5-3C of warming and very serious consequences.

Theres also a definite possibility of a positive feedback loop where further climate rise becomes unstoppable. Melting permafrost is releasing lots of stored methane.

In terms of geological time the temerature may restore, but we may have to go extinct first.

moonshine · November 2

Casino_Royale said:

moonshine said:

Casino_Royale said:

Taz said:
I see it COP30 this week in Brazil. There’s been little fanfare about it in the lead up to it. A few years ago it would have had significant coverage.

Main countries aren’t bothering. Hard to see what it can achieve aside from the regular demand for ‘climate reparations’.
And, yet, the problem is more serious than ever.

It just goes to show how fickle and shallow much opinion is on this.
Musk has spoken quite a bit in the last 48 hours about climate change. I think his view is correct. This doesn’t need to be solved at the cost of all else in the next 5 years, but it needs to have been addressed roughly by the time the century is out.

In truth, man made climate change is rather low down the list for likely causes of civilisational collapse.
It needs to be solved much sooner than that, but it probably won't be until the end of the century.

Which means about 2.5-3C of warming and very serious consequences.

If human civ has made it to 2100, no one is going to be much bothered about climate change, because tech advances will have made the flap a forgotten quirk of history.

Sandpit · November 2

Nigelb said:
Another very interesting long read on the Ukraine war, with important and urgent lessons for our defence procurement.

Is the Ukraine War an RMA?
https://www.chinatalk.media/p/ukraines-drone-war

While it’s true that you always arm to fight the next war than the last one, the war in Ukraine has torn up much of the playbook when it comes to how a land war is fought in the 21st century.

Both sides have used millions, millions of small drones, not to mention the longer-range large one-way drones currently taking out O&G facilities across Russia.

One good thing it has shown, is that current Western kit is considerably better than Soviet kit, although the Chinese are still pushing the innovation so we need to make sire we don’t fall behind.

Carnyx · November 2

Eabhal said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Eabhal said:

moonshine said:

Eabhal said:

moonshine said:

Casino_Royale said:

Taz said:
I see it COP30 this week in Brazil. There’s been little fanfare about it in the lead up to it. A few years ago it would have had significant coverage.

Main countries aren’t bothering. Hard to see what it can achieve aside from the regular demand for ‘climate reparations’.
And, yet, the problem is more serious than ever.

It just goes to show how fickle and shallow much opinion is on this.
Musk has spoken quite a bit in the last 48 hours about climate change. I think his view is correct. This doesn’t need to be solved at the cost of all else in the next 5 years, but it needs to have been addressed roughly by the time the century is out.

In truth, man made climate change is rather low down the list for likely causes of civilisational collapse.
That's not really how climate change works though, is it?

It's going to be exceptionally difficult to reverse and, while their is enormous uncertainty about the severity and nature of the ongoing damage, it's almost certainly better value to reduce emissions now than spend billions on flood defences and deal with mass migration from Africa, crop blight etc etc. Or at least it is if you are younger or care about the next few generations.

The same people who were denying climate change existed have now reached a final, late stage of denialism where they insist it's not worth doing anything about. It's pathetic and transparent.
It’s not worth it at the cost of all else, which is the Miliband approach. You do that which is most economic and not that which is not. It’s rather extraordinary by the way to characterise Musk as a climate denialist and rather undermines your opinion on this matter.
I didn't call Musk a denialist, did I? Miliband's approach is almost indistinguishable from the previous government.

Anyway, the logical outcome from this kind of debate is we need to think about investing much more in adaptation. Flooding is the obvious one (particularly SE England).
Dredge the rivers. Build more reservoirs to store the water, so we don't have winter floods and summer droughts every sodding year. Old school actual water management, as banned by the EU's absurd habitats regulations - the ones we no longer have to abide by. Next.
Dredge the rivers is hilariously wrong. Just ridiculous. Happily we have experts working hard to find ways to reduce flooding and advising the government so we don't repeat the stupidity of the past.

Part of the problem is *surface water runoff* which will get into the rivers all along their lengths, as well as doing damage en route. SEPA distinguishes it from riverine flooding in their maps, for instance.

Stuartinromford · November 2

Eabhal said:

moonshine said:

Casino_Royale said:

Taz said:
I see it COP30 this week in Brazil. There’s been little fanfare about it in the lead up to it. A few years ago it would have had significant coverage.

Main countries aren’t bothering. Hard to see what it can achieve aside from the regular demand for ‘climate reparations’.
And, yet, the problem is more serious than ever.

It just goes to show how fickle and shallow much opinion is on this.
Musk has spoken quite a bit in the last 48 hours about climate change. I think his view is correct. This doesn’t need to be solved at the cost of all else in the next 5 years, but it needs to have been addressed roughly by the time the century is out.

In truth, man made climate change is rather low down the list for likely causes of civilisational collapse.
That's not really how climate change works though, is it?

It's going to be exceptionally difficult to reverse and, while there is enormous uncertainty about the severity and nature of the ongoing damage, it's almost certainly better value to reduce emissions now than spend billions on flood defences and deal with mass migration from Africa, crop blight etc etc. Or at least it is if you are younger or care about the next few generations.

The same people who were denying climate change existed have now reached a final, late stage of denialism where they insist it's not worth doing anything about. It's pathetic and transparent.

The curious thing is that Musk has previously backed, with his own money, brand and talent, the "innovation not hair shirt" approach. And with the improvements in solar and batteries, that has very largely worked. A very large percentage of the solution exists, and capitalism is delivering it. It's just a question of doing it.

Yay capitalism.

And now it seems that Musk is backing away from his triumph, just as it is happening. Why? Has he been driven mad by his own opinion machine?

Just 23% of voters think Badenoch is doing a good job – politicalbetting.com

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