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An interesting stat about Reform councillors – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,758
edited October 28 in General
An interesting stat about Reform councillors – politicalbetting.com

Over 5% of the Reform councillors elected in May have now either resigned or been fired.www.bbc.co.uk/news/article…

Read the full story here

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  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 57,827
    edited October 28
    1st like Reform in the polls?

    So when do we get to see a serious attempt by Farage to install a team of shadow ministers and develop policy for each department?
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 25,561
    I'd love to know exactly what Starmer is doing about this shocking state of affairs. He can't blame this one on the Tories. We need a new government pronto.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 46,160
    Sandpit said:

    1st like Reform in the polls?

    So when do we get to see a serious attempt by Farage to install a team of shadow ministers and develop policy for each department?

    No, 38th or something like that.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 4,972
    It's better than 40% of their MPs.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 45,684
    edited October 28
    Sandpit said:

    1st like Reform in the polls?

    So when do we get to see a serious attempt by Farage to install a team of shadow ministers and develop policy for each department?

    Danny Kruger, apparently the brains of the outfit, is on it once he's sorted the racist/not racist stuff.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 62,137
    Sandpit said:

    1st like Reform in the polls?

    So when do we get to see a serious attempt by Farage to install a team of shadow ministers and develop policy for each department?

    Farage quite likes being the face of Reform: which is simultaneously an enormous asset, and a bit of a flaw.
  • TazTaz Posts: 21,805
    Some good news on the TV scheduling.

    Rejoice, rejoice, rejoice.

    https://www.tvzoneuk.com/post/bullseye-series2025-returndateann1
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 17,163
    Farage has already said that his plan is to appoint a cabinet from outside parliament via appointments to the House of Lords. Presumably he knows as well as the rest of us the calibre of candidate his party is attracting.
  • TazTaz Posts: 21,805
    Sandpit said:

    1st like Reform in the polls?

    So when do we get to see a serious attempt by Farage to install a team of shadow ministers and develop policy for each department?

    I made exactly the same point in the previous thread. A party of govt in waiting needs to have a team ready and they need to be subject to scrutiny too.
  • eekeek Posts: 31,664

    Farage has already said that his plan is to appoint a cabinet from outside parliament via appointments to the House of Lords. Presumably he knows as well as the rest of us the calibre of candidate his party is attracting.

    That’s going to make questioning minister as to what is going on rather difficult
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 20,774

    Farage has already said that his plan is to appoint a cabinet from outside parliament via appointments to the House of Lords. Presumably he knows as well as the rest of us the calibre of candidate his party is attracting.

    Labour/Tories are going to regret leaving the House of Lords unreformed.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 20,929

    Sandpit said:

    1st like Reform in the polls?

    So when do we get to see a serious attempt by Farage to install a team of shadow ministers and develop policy for each department?

    Danny Kruger, apparently the brains of the outfit, is on it once he's sorted the racist/not racist stuff.
    So never then.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 20,395

    Farage has already said that his plan is to appoint a cabinet from outside parliament via appointments to the House of Lords. Presumably he knows as well as the rest of us the calibre of candidate his party is attracting.

    Also- MPs have an independent mandate; they can (and frequently do) depose Prime Ministers. Appointed Lords, rather less so.

    It's a plan scrawled in crayon, though. For a start, it requires all these new Reform MPs to accept their status as lobby fodder. Also- without changing the rules, it rather messes with parliament's ability to question ministers. Then there's the whole "unelected rulers" thing that Brexit backers used to think was so important.

    If we get to 2028, and Reform are still going strong, I'd advise Nigel to bulk buy brown trousers in advance. Just in case.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,324

    Farage has already said that his plan is to appoint a cabinet from outside parliament via appointments to the House of Lords. Presumably he knows as well as the rest of us the calibre of candidate his party is attracting.

    It's an issue affecting all parties, including the current government.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 23,711
    Two thirds of Labour councillors elected in my ward are no longer Labour councillors.
  • eekeek Posts: 31,664

    Two thirds of Labour councillors elected in my ward are no longer Labour councillors.

    Elected when? May 2025 is different from May 2022
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 7,422

    Farage has already said that his plan is to appoint a cabinet from outside parliament via appointments to the House of Lords. Presumably he knows as well as the rest of us the calibre of candidate his party is attracting.

    Labour/Tories are going to regret leaving the House of Lords unreformed.
    Not really. You don't have to be in Parliament at all to be a minister
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 88,574
    Israel PM Netanyahu orders military to immediately strike Gaza
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 40,702
    @jimsciutto
    Breaking: Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu ordered the Israeli military to carry out "immediate, powerful"
    strikes in Gaza following security consultations, the PM’s office said in a statement. Earlier Netanyahu’s office said Hamas is in “clear violation” of the Gaza ceasefire agreement after returning remains that did not belong to any of the 13 hostages still unaccounted for.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 7,422
    edited October 28
    eek said:

    Farage has already said that his plan is to appoint a cabinet from outside parliament via appointments to the House of Lords. Presumably he knows as well as the rest of us the calibre of candidate his party is attracting.

    That’s going to make questioning minister as to what is going on rather difficult
    That's up to the House of Commons and its standing orders, although with a Reform majority it probably wouldn't cooperate.

    As far as I can see, ministers who are not MPs could already answer questions in the HoC by:

    Being called to the Bar of the House

    The House sitting as a committee (we know strangers can be questioned by committees)

    Alternatively, the HoC could amend its SOs to allow ministers who are not MPs to speak but not vote.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 57,827
    edited October 28

    Farage has already said that his plan is to appoint a cabinet from outside parliament via appointments to the House of Lords. Presumably he knows as well as the rest of us the calibre of candidate his party is attracting.

    That’s surely the worst possible way to do it.

    His shadow minsters need to be running for the Commons in the safest seats they can find. If that means a donor needs to pay them and a research team for the next three years, then he needs to write the cheque.

    Otherwise they’re not a serious prospective party of government.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 75,818

    Israel PM Netanyahu orders military to immediately strike Gaza

    Which criminal charges is the senile old nutcase trying to dodge now?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 56,393

    Farage has already said that his plan is to appoint a cabinet from outside parliament via appointments to the House of Lords. Presumably he knows as well as the rest of us the calibre of candidate his party is attracting.

    House of Lords = House of Unelected Has-Beens!
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 56,393
    edited October 28

    Israel PM Netanyahu orders military to immediately strike Gaza

    Bang goes that Nobel Prize :lol:
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 23,711
    eek said:

    Two thirds of Labour councillors elected in my ward are no longer Labour councillors.

    Elected when? May 2025 is different from May 2022
    22 & 23
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 7,422

    Two thirds of Labour councillors elected in my ward are no longer Labour councillors.

    Open Council Data has a change log that gives some idea of the amount of churn https://opencouncildata.co.uk/changes.php?y=2025
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 75,818

    eek said:

    Farage has already said that his plan is to appoint a cabinet from outside parliament via appointments to the House of Lords. Presumably he knows as well as the rest of us the calibre of candidate his party is attracting.

    That’s going to make questioning minister as to what is going on rather difficult
    That's up to the House of Commons and its standing orders, although with a Reform majority it probably wouldn't cooperate.

    As far as I can see, ministers who are not MPs could already answer questions in the HoC by:

    Being called to the Bar of the House

    The House sitting as a committee (we know strangers can be questioned by committees)

    Alternatively, the HoC could amend its SOs to allow ministers who are not MPs to speak but not vote.
    Which could have been done in 1940 when Halifax was considered as Prime Minister, and was, but not needed because he ruled himself out.

    There's a fairly good case to be made for having ministers from outside Parliament anyway. I would say so we can have people who know what they're talking about, although remembering that SPADs on Education in recent years have included Spielman, Cummings, Freedman, Mansfield, McDermott and that twat who thinks all children who breathe loudly should be caned but whose name I cannot remember, that would be an optimistic assessment.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 56,393
    Taz said:

    Some good news on the TV scheduling.

    Rejoice, rejoice, rejoice.

    https://www.tvzoneuk.com/post/bullseye-series2025-returndateann1

    There are late night repeats of the Jim Bowen version on Challenge TV Freeview 48!
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 20,395
    Sandpit said:

    Farage has already said that his plan is to appoint a cabinet from outside parliament via appointments to the House of Lords. Presumably he knows as well as the rest of us the calibre of candidate his party is attracting.

    That’s surely the worst possible way to do it.

    His shadow minsters need to be running for the Commons in the safest seats they can find. If that means a donor needs to pay them and a research team for the next three years, then he needs to write the cheque.

    Otherwise they’re not a serious prospective party of government.
    There's a reason for that.

    Reform aren't a serious prospective party of government. Not for 2029, anyway.

    There's an irresistible force of everyone else being hated and Nigel being our last hope, but it can't help but run up against the immovable object that Reform isn't even trying to be a government-in-waiting.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 23,711

    eek said:

    Two thirds of Labour councillors elected in my ward are no longer Labour councillors.

    Elected when? May 2025 is different from May 2022
    22 & 23
    Correction: 22 & 24
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 40,702
    @RepMTG
    You left out that I said I have no respect for the House not being in session passing our bills and the President’s executive orders.

    And I demanded to know from Speaker Johnson what the Republican plan for healthcare is to build the off-ramp off Obamacare and the ACA tax credits to make health insurance affordable for Americans.

    Johnson said he’s got ideas and pages of policy ideas and committees of jurisdiction are working on it, but he refused to give one policy proposal to our GOP conference on our own conference call.

    Apparently I have to go into a SCIF to find out the Republican healthcare plan!!!
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 1,795

    Farage has already said that his plan is to appoint a cabinet from outside parliament via appointments to the House of Lords. Presumably he knows as well as the rest of us the calibre of candidate his party is attracting.

    House of Lords = House of Unelected Has-Beens!
    Another good reason for Starmer to wake up and get a move on with HoL reform, otherwise we'll end up being run by appointed business people entirely for their own interests like the US and Russia
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,655
    'Piss in our time' from Netanyahu I see...

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/c891ex72nj7t
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 75,818
    Scott_xP said:

    @RepMTG
    You left out that I said I have no respect for the House not being in session passing our bills and the President’s executive orders.

    And I demanded to know from Speaker Johnson what the Republican plan for healthcare is to build the off-ramp off Obamacare and the ACA tax credits to make health insurance affordable for Americans.

    Johnson said he’s got ideas and pages of policy ideas and committees of jurisdiction are working on it, but he refused to give one policy proposal to our GOP conference on our own conference call.

    Apparently I have to go into a SCIF to find out the Republican healthcare plan!!!

    Who said this?
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 7,216
    edited October 28
    We are being right royally ripped off. We have just sent a card to congratulate family in Germany.. the card cost THREE POUNDS FIFTY PENCE to post. That's more than the fffing card.

    Sell off Royal Mail and then let them rip us off

    Its an effing disgrace.

  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 7,422

    Sandpit said:

    Farage has already said that his plan is to appoint a cabinet from outside parliament via appointments to the House of Lords. Presumably he knows as well as the rest of us the calibre of candidate his party is attracting.

    That’s surely the worst possible way to do it.

    His shadow minsters need to be running for the Commons in the safest seats they can find. If that means a donor needs to pay them and a research team for the next three years, then he needs to write the cheque.

    Otherwise they’re not a serious prospective party of government.
    There's a reason for that.

    Reform aren't a serious prospective party of government. Not for 2029, anyway.

    There's an irresistible force of everyone else being hated and Nigel being our last hope, but it can't help but run up against the immovable object that Reform isn't even trying to be a government-in-waiting.
    There's 4 years to go. No-one is trying to be a Government-in-waiting yet. It would arguably be pointless, as circumstances will change. But yes Reform does need to get its shit together if it expects us to vote for them.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 7,422
    Dopermean said:

    Farage has already said that his plan is to appoint a cabinet from outside parliament via appointments to the House of Lords. Presumably he knows as well as the rest of us the calibre of candidate his party is attracting.

    House of Lords = House of Unelected Has-Beens!
    Another good reason for Starmer to wake up and get a move on with HoL reform, otherwise we'll end up being run by appointed business people entirely for their own interests like the US and Russia
    As I pointed out that can happen anyway, you do not need to be in either House of Parliament to be a minister. It is customary, but that is all.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 40,702
    ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @RepMTG
    You left out that I said I have no respect for the House not being in session passing our bills and the President’s executive orders.

    And I demanded to know from Speaker Johnson what the Republican plan for healthcare is to build the off-ramp off Obamacare and the ACA tax credits to make health insurance affordable for Americans.

    Johnson said he’s got ideas and pages of policy ideas and committees of jurisdiction are working on it, but he refused to give one policy proposal to our GOP conference on our own conference call.

    Apparently I have to go into a SCIF to find out the Republican healthcare plan!!!

    Who said this?
    Marjorie Taylor Green
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 75,818
    Scott_xP said:

    ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @RepMTG
    You left out that I said I have no respect for the House not being in session passing our bills and the President’s executive orders.

    And I demanded to know from Speaker Johnson what the Republican plan for healthcare is to build the off-ramp off Obamacare and the ACA tax credits to make health insurance affordable for Americans.

    Johnson said he’s got ideas and pages of policy ideas and committees of jurisdiction are working on it, but he refused to give one policy proposal to our GOP conference on our own conference call.

    Apparently I have to go into a SCIF to find out the Republican healthcare plan!!!

    Who said this?
    Marjorie Taylor Green
    Right, from the context I thought it was being said *to* her.

    If Johnson has lost even the utterly batshit MTG, he is completely fucked.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 68,598
    edited October 28

    Israel PM Netanyahu orders military to immediately strike Gaza

    Bang goes that Nobel Prize :lol:
    It's last two weeks. Which is several days longer than I certainly expected.

    Trump is going to go ape though when he finds out.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 7,560

    We are being right royally ripped off. We have just sent a card to congratulate family in Germany.. the card cost THREE POUNDS FIFTY PENCE to post. That's more than the fffing card.

    Sell off Royal Mail and then let them rip us off

    Its an effing disgrace.

    Could be worse, you could be sending a letter from Belfast to Dublin for £3.40. The Irish at least have the decency to let you do the reverse for €1.65.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 40,702
    ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:

    ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @RepMTG
    You left out that I said I have no respect for the House not being in session passing our bills and the President’s executive orders.

    And I demanded to know from Speaker Johnson what the Republican plan for healthcare is to build the off-ramp off Obamacare and the ACA tax credits to make health insurance affordable for Americans.

    Johnson said he’s got ideas and pages of policy ideas and committees of jurisdiction are working on it, but he refused to give one policy proposal to our GOP conference on our own conference call.

    Apparently I have to go into a SCIF to find out the Republican healthcare plan!!!

    Who said this?
    Marjorie Taylor Green
    Right, from the context I thought it was being said *to* her.

    If Johnson has lost even the utterly batshit MTG, he is completely fucked.
    https://x.com/RepMTG/status/1983203291321315825
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 40,702

    Israel PM Netanyahu orders military to immediately strike Gaza

    Bang goes that Nobel Prize :lol:
    It's last two weeks. Which is several days longer than I certainly expected.

    Trump is going to go ape though when he finds out.
    Hegseth and Rubio were 'Bibisitting' to make sure this didn't happen, but both of them are with the Mad King in Tokyo now
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 57,923
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-15234089/Romanian-stabbed-girl-Leicester-Square-attempted-murder-charge-dropped.html

    Got a question for our legal eagles.

    CPS = "'The decision to accept a guilty plea to wounding with intent to cause grievous bodily harm was taken after carefully reviewing evidence provided by two separate expert psychiatrists.

    'The impact of the expert evidence meant that we could not prove that Pintaru specifically intended to kill, which is an essential element of an attempted murder offence."

    How does that work? If he isn't right in the head, then surely he needs sending to a secure headshrinking facility? Or is there some intermediate not-all-there state where you can be partially guilty of criminal charges?
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 1,795

    Two thirds of Labour councillors elected in my ward are no longer Labour councillors.

    Open Council Data has a change log that gives some idea of the amount of churn https://opencouncildata.co.uk/changes.php?y=2025
    Well that's enlightening!! Conservatives and Labour neck and neck out in front for defections since May
  • https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-15234089/Romanian-stabbed-girl-Leicester-Square-attempted-murder-charge-dropped.html

    Got a question for our legal eagles.

    CPS = "'The decision to accept a guilty plea to wounding with intent to cause grievous bodily harm was taken after carefully reviewing evidence provided by two separate expert psychiatrists.

    'The impact of the expert evidence meant that we could not prove that Pintaru specifically intended to kill, which is an essential element of an attempted murder offence."

    How does that work? If he isn't right in the head, then surely he needs sending to a secure headshrinking facility? Or is there some intermediate not-all-there state where you can be partially guilty of criminal charges?

    Based on my friend’s experience the guy who attacked her was undiagnosed but by the time of the trial had been diagnosed and had treatment which made them better and no longer posed a risk.
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 1,795

    Dopermean said:

    Farage has already said that his plan is to appoint a cabinet from outside parliament via appointments to the House of Lords. Presumably he knows as well as the rest of us the calibre of candidate his party is attracting.

    House of Lords = House of Unelected Has-Beens!
    Another good reason for Starmer to wake up and get a move on with HoL reform, otherwise we'll end up being run by appointed business people entirely for their own interests like the US and Russia
    As I pointed out that can happen anyway, you do not need to be in either House of Parliament to be a minister. It is customary, but that is all.
    He'd better change that as well then!!

    "Our system has checks and balances that will check the powers of a President" as numerous complacent Americans said a year ago
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 40,702
    @phildstewart

    Scoop! U.S. military officials involved with President Donald Trump's expanding operations in Latin America have been asked to sign non-disclosure agreements. Story moving now

    https://x.com/phildstewart/status/1983211108681846844
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 75,818
    edited October 28
    Scott_xP said:

    Israel PM Netanyahu orders military to immediately strike Gaza

    Bang goes that Nobel Prize :lol:
    It's last two weeks. Which is several days longer than I certainly expected.

    Trump is going to go ape though when he finds out.
    Hegseth and Rubio were 'Bibisitting' to make sure this didn't happen, but both of them are with the Mad King in Tokyo now
    If even Hegseth is considered a voice of reason and restraint, Netanyahu must be further along the road to total insanity than even I thought.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 6,927

    We are being right royally ripped off. We have just sent a card to congratulate family in Germany.. the card cost THREE POUNDS FIFTY PENCE to post. That's more than the fffing card.

    Sell off Royal Mail and then let them rip us off

    Its an effing disgrace.

    They need the money to urgently pay compensation to the Postmasters ….. oh wait!
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 46,160

    Farage has already said that his plan is to appoint a cabinet from outside parliament via appointments to the House of Lords. Presumably he knows as well as the rest of us the calibre of candidate his party is attracting.

    It's an issue affecting all parties, including the current government.
    Er ... not the SNP, or (to be really pedantic) SF.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 75,818
    Dopermean said:

    Dopermean said:

    Farage has already said that his plan is to appoint a cabinet from outside parliament via appointments to the House of Lords. Presumably he knows as well as the rest of us the calibre of candidate his party is attracting.

    House of Lords = House of Unelected Has-Beens!
    Another good reason for Starmer to wake up and get a move on with HoL reform, otherwise we'll end up being run by appointed business people entirely for their own interests like the US and Russia
    As I pointed out that can happen anyway, you do not need to be in either House of Parliament to be a minister. It is customary, but that is all.
    He'd better change that as well then!!

    "Our system has checks and balances that will check the powers of a President" as numerous complacent Americans said a year ago
    Trump checked the power of the President.

    And decided he liked it very much, but on balance it wasn't enough.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 57,827

    Israel PM Netanyahu orders military to immediately strike Gaza

    Bang goes that Nobel Prize :lol:
    It's last two weeks. Which is several days longer than I certainly expected.

    Trump is going to go ape though when he finds out.
    Did Hamas really think they could get away with sending a dozen random coffins back in place of the deceased hostages?

    The regional peacekeeping force can’t arrive soon enough. A dangerous moment for the peace process.
  • TazTaz Posts: 21,805
    Sandpit said:

    Israel PM Netanyahu orders military to immediately strike Gaza

    Bang goes that Nobel Prize :lol:
    It's last two weeks. Which is several days longer than I certainly expected.

    Trump is going to go ape though when he finds out.
    Did Hamas really think they could get away with sending a dozen random coffins back in place of the deceased hostages?

    The regional peacekeeping force can’t arrive soon enough. A dangerous moment for the peace process.
    Do they realistically have all the bodies ?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,830

    Two thirds of Labour councillors elected in my ward are no longer Labour councillors.

    Open Council Data has a change log that gives some idea of the amount of churn https://opencouncildata.co.uk/changes.php?y=2025
    I think that's 181 switches from the Conservatives and 160 from Labour, compared to 35 for Reform, so not that different in percentage terms.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 75,818
    edited October 28
    Sandpit said:

    Israel PM Netanyahu orders military to immediately strike Gaza

    Bang goes that Nobel Prize :lol:
    It's last two weeks. Which is several days longer than I certainly expected.

    Trump is going to go ape though when he finds out.
    Did Hamas really think they could get away with sending a dozen random coffins back in place of the deceased hostages?

    The regional peacekeeping force can’t arrive soon enough. A dangerous moment for the peace process.
    Do we know for certain that they did?

    I wouldn't trust Hamas as far as I could throw them, but I trust Netanyahu even less, and Ben-Gvir makes Dominic Cummings look positively honest.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 68,598
    Noah Bergren
    @NbergWX

    HORRIBLE: WORST CASE scenario is unfolding. Really, I am near a loss of words. "Last chance to protect your life at all costs" is the words from the NHC. Melissa is about to make landfall at its strongest intensity. A humanitarian disaster is about to unfold. The hurricane hunters detected 252 MPH gusts 300 feet off the ocean surface. 185 MPH max sustained winds and 220+ MPH gusts in the eyewall about to obliterate Black River area.

    https://x.com/NbergWX/status/1983191842943291625
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 75,818

    Farage has already said that his plan is to appoint a cabinet from outside parliament via appointments to the House of Lords. Presumably he knows as well as the rest of us the calibre of candidate his party is attracting.

    House of Lords = House of Unelected Has-Beens!
    No it isn't.

    In Charlotte Owen and Amanda Spielman it includes at least two never-weres.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 82,662
    Sandpit said:

    Farage has already said that his plan is to appoint a cabinet from outside parliament via appointments to the House of Lords. Presumably he knows as well as the rest of us the calibre of candidate his party is attracting.

    That’s surely the worst possible way to do it.

    His shadow minsters need to be running for the Commons in the safest seats they can find. If that means a donor needs to pay them and a research team for the next three years, then he needs to write the cheque.

    Otherwise they’re not a serious prospective party of government.
    Fairly doubtful that they're that in any event.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 82,662
    Scott_xP said:

    @phildstewart

    Scoop! U.S. military officials involved with President Donald Trump's expanding operations in Latin America have been asked to sign non-disclosure agreements. Story moving now

    https://x.com/phildstewart/status/1983211108681846844

    Why ?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 75,818

    Noah Bergren
    @NbergWX

    HORRIBLE: WORST CASE scenario is unfolding. Really, I am near a loss of words. "Last chance to protect your life at all costs" is the words from the NHC. Melissa is about to make landfall at its strongest intensity. A humanitarian disaster is about to unfold. The hurricane hunters detected 252 MPH gusts 300 feet off the ocean surface. 185 MPH max sustained winds and 220+ MPH gusts in the eyewall about to obliterate Black River area.

    https://x.com/NbergWX/status/1983191842943291625

    At risk of sounding callous, this isn't the worst case scenario. The worst case scenario was that it would be like that over all of Jamaica. As it is, it looks as though it's the western part that will be hit, which is less heavily populated. In particular, if it misses the port infrastructure it will make it a hell of a lot easier to get aid in.

    It's still bad, it's still very bad, and that is presumably the coldest of cold comfort to the 4,000 inhabitants of Black River, but it's not the worst case scenario.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,925
    edited October 28
    Terrible news from the oil market.

    The price is now about $65 and Goldman Sachs is predicting it could fall to $40.

    So, given their forecasting record, I'm fairly confident we'll be paying at least $90-100 before too long.

    All we need now is for McKinsey to be invited in to work on lots of oil companies and the whole industry could collapse.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 82,662
    No idea is this is actually true, but given Trump's reaction to an ad which merely replayed a Reagan speech, it would be .. interesting.

    “If you thought the Canada/America relationship was in tatters last week, get ready for armageddon. Rumors are swirling that the government of Canada, on top of several travel advisories to the United States, is set to officially condemn the Trump Regime as an enemy of the American people and democracy, due to the extreme human rights abuses being carried out at the hands of Donald J Trump.”
    https://x.com/shannonrwatts/status/1982992298347499875

    Doesn't really sound like Carney's style, though.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 20,395
    ydoethur said:

    Farage has already said that his plan is to appoint a cabinet from outside parliament via appointments to the House of Lords. Presumably he knows as well as the rest of us the calibre of candidate his party is attracting.

    House of Lords = House of Unelected Has-Beens!
    No it isn't.

    In Charlotte Owen and Amanda Spielman it includes at least two never-weres.
    Hate to say it, but Amanda Spielman undoubtedly was.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 40,702
    Fishing said:

    Terrible news from the oil market.

    The price is now about $65 and Goldman Sachs is predicting it could fall to $40.

    So, given their forecasting record, I'm fairly confident we'll be paying at least $90-100 before too long.

    All we need now is for McKinsey to be invited in to work on lots of oil companies and the whole industry could collapse.

    DementiaDon in his rambling remarks today was talking about power stations more advanced "than anybody has ever seen", using coal...
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 20,395
    Meanwhile, the first local government reorganisation is out, with Surrey split into East and West.

    https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/surrey-local-government-reorganisation
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 62,137
    Nigelb said:

    No idea is this is actually true, but given Trump's reaction to an ad which merely replayed a Reagan speech, it would be .. interesting.

    “If you thought the Canada/America relationship was in tatters last week, get ready for armageddon. Rumors are swirling that the government of Canada, on top of several travel advisories to the United States, is set to officially condemn the Trump Regime as an enemy of the American people and democracy, due to the extreme human rights abuses being carried out at the hands of Donald J Trump.”
    https://x.com/shannonrwatts/status/1982992298347499875

    Doesn't really sound like Carney's style, though.

    Sounds extremely unlikely.

    That said: in Canada and Brazil, it seems like the votes are for standing up for their countries independence. I think SKS would be wise to learn that lesson.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 75,818
    Scott_xP said:

    Fishing said:

    Terrible news from the oil market.

    The price is now about $65 and Goldman Sachs is predicting it could fall to $40.

    So, given their forecasting record, I'm fairly confident we'll be paying at least $90-100 before too long.

    All we need now is for McKinsey to be invited in to work on lots of oil companies and the whole industry could collapse.

    DementiaDon in his rambling remarks today was talking about power stations more advanced "than anybody has ever seen", using coal...
    It's tragic.

    Just think of how much cheap, renewable power he could generate by standing under a turbine all day every day.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 75,818
    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    No idea is this is actually true, but given Trump's reaction to an ad which merely replayed a Reagan speech, it would be .. interesting.

    “If you thought the Canada/America relationship was in tatters last week, get ready for armageddon. Rumors are swirling that the government of Canada, on top of several travel advisories to the United States, is set to officially condemn the Trump Regime as an enemy of the American people and democracy, due to the extreme human rights abuses being carried out at the hands of Donald J Trump.”
    https://x.com/shannonrwatts/status/1982992298347499875

    Doesn't really sound like Carney's style, though.

    Sounds extremely unlikely.

    That said: in Canada and Brazil, it seems like the votes are for standing up for their countries independence. I think SKS would be wise to learn that lesson.
    He's already trying to ape Farage, aping Swinney as well might be problematic.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 68,598
    Hurricane landfall at 892 mb.

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 62,137
    ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:

    ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @RepMTG
    You left out that I said I have no respect for the House not being in session passing our bills and the President’s executive orders.

    And I demanded to know from Speaker Johnson what the Republican plan for healthcare is to build the off-ramp off Obamacare and the ACA tax credits to make health insurance affordable for Americans.

    Johnson said he’s got ideas and pages of policy ideas and committees of jurisdiction are working on it, but he refused to give one policy proposal to our GOP conference on our own conference call.

    Apparently I have to go into a SCIF to find out the Republican healthcare plan!!!

    Who said this?
    Marjorie Taylor Green
    Right, from the context I thought it was being said *to* her.

    If Johnson has lost even the utterly batshit MTG, he is completely fucked.
    Ms Taylor Green has been veering away from her party on a number of issues.

    (1) She's been voting with the Democrats to "release the Epstein files"
    (2) She's noticed that sending Americans healthcare bills spiralling is probably not a popular policy
    (3) She's become increasing skeptical of the 'just back Netanyahu' instincts of the current administration

  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 4,226

    Meanwhile, the first local government reorganisation is out, with Surrey split into East and West.

    https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/surrey-local-government-reorganisation

    Are they building a wall?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 62,137
    Taz said:

    Sandpit said:

    Israel PM Netanyahu orders military to immediately strike Gaza

    Bang goes that Nobel Prize :lol:
    It's last two weeks. Which is several days longer than I certainly expected.

    Trump is going to go ape though when he finds out.
    Did Hamas really think they could get away with sending a dozen random coffins back in place of the deceased hostages?

    The regional peacekeeping force can’t arrive soon enough. A dangerous moment for the peace process.
    Do they realistically have all the bodies ?
    That's an excellent question.

    And the answer is, probably not. Some of the Israeli strikes, especially the ones which collapsed tunnels, probably resulted in the deaths of hostages, and it may very well be that Hamas cannot access them.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 68,598
    Scott_xP said:

    Fishing said:

    Terrible news from the oil market.

    The price is now about $65 and Goldman Sachs is predicting it could fall to $40.

    So, given their forecasting record, I'm fairly confident we'll be paying at least $90-100 before too long.

    All we need now is for McKinsey to be invited in to work on lots of oil companies and the whole industry could collapse.

    DementiaDon in his rambling remarks today was talking about power stations more advanced "than anybody has ever seen", using coal...
    Aaron Rupar
    @atrupar
    ·
    2h
    Trump: "I said, 'put it all into one bill and if we get it done, we're done for four years.' We don't need anything more from Congress."

    https://x.com/atrupar/status/1983190379097628823


    Permanent shutdown?
  • ChrisChris Posts: 12,106
    ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Fishing said:

    Terrible news from the oil market.

    The price is now about $65 and Goldman Sachs is predicting it could fall to $40.

    So, given their forecasting record, I'm fairly confident we'll be paying at least $90-100 before too long.

    All we need now is for McKinsey to be invited in to work on lots of oil companies and the whole industry could collapse.

    DementiaDon in his rambling remarks today was talking about power stations more advanced "than anybody has ever seen", using coal...
    It's tragic.

    Just think of how much cheap, renewable power he could generate by standing under a turbine all day every day.
    You're thinking of hot air?

    But why not just stand him above a turbine and remove his nappy?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 75,818
    Chris said:

    ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Fishing said:

    Terrible news from the oil market.

    The price is now about $65 and Goldman Sachs is predicting it could fall to $40.

    So, given their forecasting record, I'm fairly confident we'll be paying at least $90-100 before too long.

    All we need now is for McKinsey to be invited in to work on lots of oil companies and the whole industry could collapse.

    DementiaDon in his rambling remarks today was talking about power stations more advanced "than anybody has ever seen", using coal...
    It's tragic.

    Just think of how much cheap, renewable power he could generate by standing under a turbine all day every day.
    You're thinking of hot air?

    But why not just stand him above a turbine and remove his nappy?
    Compromise - below a turbine, above a 200 gallon digester.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 6,539
    rcs1000 said:

    Taz said:

    Sandpit said:

    Israel PM Netanyahu orders military to immediately strike Gaza

    Bang goes that Nobel Prize :lol:
    It's last two weeks. Which is several days longer than I certainly expected.

    Trump is going to go ape though when he finds out.
    Did Hamas really think they could get away with sending a dozen random coffins back in place of the deceased hostages?

    The regional peacekeeping force can’t arrive soon enough. A dangerous moment for the peace process.
    Do they realistically have all the bodies ?
    That's an excellent question.

    And the answer is, probably not. Some of the Israeli strikes, especially the ones which collapsed tunnels, probably resulted in the deaths of hostages, and it may very well be that Hamas cannot access them.
    Yes I never thought they’d be able to locate all the bodies given the level of destruction. Netenyahu wanted any excuse to continue the carnage .
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 62,137
    Fishing said:

    Terrible news from the oil market.

    The price is now about $65 and Goldman Sachs is predicting it could fall to $40.

    So, given their forecasting record, I'm fairly confident we'll be paying at least $90-100 before too long.

    All we need now is for McKinsey to be invited in to work on lots of oil companies and the whole industry could collapse.

    Goldman's oil price forecasting record isn't particularly bad, and their commodities trading arm has been by far the most profitable of the big investment banks.

    That said (and speaking as a former money manager in the space), I don't think I'd be anywhere near as negative.

    To get to $40, you would need at least two of the following to happen:

    (1) The Ukrainian war to end, and therefore Russian oil & gas to reenter the market
    (2) Iranian sanctions to be lifted
    (3) A serious worldwide recession that cut oil demand meaningfully

    There's also a very big natural stabalizer for oil prices these days: US tight oil production, especially in the Permian. Those wells have extremely high decline rates, and therefore if prices fall, then so does drilling activity, and therefore production. It's a natural price stabilizer. (And which works both ways: if the oil price goes up to $85, then more drilling will happen, and more oil will flow from the US.)
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 1,848
    Plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose.

    Thurrock's 17 UKIP councillors all resign from party in 2018



    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-essex-42830757
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 57,827
    Hurricane Melissa has arrived in Jamaica.

    https://x.com/met4castuk/status/1983209215234638194

    Doesn’t look good for the whole Western half of the island.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 68,598
    Eye headed for Montego Bay on current tracking.

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 75,818

    Meanwhile, the first local government reorganisation is out, with Surrey split into East and West.

    https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/surrey-local-government-reorganisation

    51% of respondents backed the 3 unitary proposal, just 19% the one the government are going with.

    That’s (a) going to be unpopular and (b) makes you wonder why they bothered with consultation at all if they’re just going to say, ‘fuck you all, we know better.’
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 82,662

    Scott_xP said:

    Fishing said:

    Terrible news from the oil market.

    The price is now about $65 and Goldman Sachs is predicting it could fall to $40.

    So, given their forecasting record, I'm fairly confident we'll be paying at least $90-100 before too long.

    All we need now is for McKinsey to be invited in to work on lots of oil companies and the whole industry could collapse.

    DementiaDon in his rambling remarks today was talking about power stations more advanced "than anybody has ever seen", using coal...
    Aaron Rupar
    @atrupar
    ·
    2h
    Trump: "I said, 'put it all into one bill and if we get it done, we're done for four years.' We don't need anything more from Congress."

    https://x.com/atrupar/status/1983190379097628823


    Permanent shutdown?
    It can't quite be permanent - the constitution mandates Congress meeting at least once each year.
  • FossFoss Posts: 1,921
    Sandpit said:

    Hurricane Melissa has arrived in Jamaica.

    https://x.com/met4castuk/status/1983209215234638194

    Doesn’t look good for the whole Western half of the island.

    Terrifying. Those poor sods
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 68,598
    Foss said:

    Sandpit said:

    Hurricane Melissa has arrived in Jamaica.

    https://x.com/met4castuk/status/1983209215234638194

    Doesn’t look good for the whole Western half of the island.

    Terrifying. Those poor sods
    They are gonna need a humongous ton of aid and reconstruction.

    I'm sure Donald will help out.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,489
    What's usual for a mainstream party? And what's usual for an insurgent party?

    Another way of looking at it is that nearly 95% are not, and less than 5% turnover in 6 months isn't bad for any brand new business.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 68,598
    Nigelb said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Fishing said:

    Terrible news from the oil market.

    The price is now about $65 and Goldman Sachs is predicting it could fall to $40.

    So, given their forecasting record, I'm fairly confident we'll be paying at least $90-100 before too long.

    All we need now is for McKinsey to be invited in to work on lots of oil companies and the whole industry could collapse.

    DementiaDon in his rambling remarks today was talking about power stations more advanced "than anybody has ever seen", using coal...
    Aaron Rupar
    @atrupar
    ·
    2h
    Trump: "I said, 'put it all into one bill and if we get it done, we're done for four years.' We don't need anything more from Congress."

    https://x.com/atrupar/status/1983190379097628823


    Permanent shutdown?
    It can't quite be permanent - the constitution mandates Congress meeting at least once each year.
    The constitution?

    LOL.

    It is an irrelevant series of documents now.

    And the GOP made this happen.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 7,729
    rcs1000 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:

    ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:

    @RepMTG
    You left out that I said I have no respect for the House not being in session passing our bills and the President’s executive orders.

    And I demanded to know from Speaker Johnson what the Republican plan for healthcare is to build the off-ramp off Obamacare and the ACA tax credits to make health insurance affordable for Americans.

    Johnson said he’s got ideas and pages of policy ideas and committees of jurisdiction are working on it, but he refused to give one policy proposal to our GOP conference on our own conference call.

    Apparently I have to go into a SCIF to find out the Republican healthcare plan!!!

    Who said this?
    Marjorie Taylor Green
    Right, from the context I thought it was being said *to* her.

    If Johnson has lost even the utterly batshit MTG, he is completely fucked.
    Ms Taylor Green has been veering away from her party on a number of issues.

    (1) She's been voting with the Democrats to "release the Epstein files"
    (2) She's noticed that sending Americans healthcare bills spiralling is probably not a popular policy
    (3) She's become increasing skeptical of the 'just back Netanyahu' instincts of the current administration

    She has indeed been openly independent on numerous issues such as Epstein and Healthcare,jobs, etc but number 3 isn’t a result of a particularly liberal ideology, it’s pointed out regularly that it’s very much in line with another alleged ideology where Israel isn’t good, and I don’t mean she’s a member of Palestine Action.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 7,729

    Foss said:

    Sandpit said:

    Hurricane Melissa has arrived in Jamaica.

    https://x.com/met4castuk/status/1983209215234638194

    Doesn’t look good for the whole Western half of the island.

    Terrifying. Those poor sods
    They are gonna need a humongous ton of aid and reconstruction.

    I'm sure Donald will help out.
    What do they have that he covets? Maybe he will take all the destroyed beachfront off their hands in exchange.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,489
    rcs1000 said:

    Nigelb said:

    No idea is this is actually true, but given Trump's reaction to an ad which merely replayed a Reagan speech, it would be .. interesting.

    “If you thought the Canada/America relationship was in tatters last week, get ready for armageddon. Rumors are swirling that the government of Canada, on top of several travel advisories to the United States, is set to officially condemn the Trump Regime as an enemy of the American people and democracy, due to the extreme human rights abuses being carried out at the hands of Donald J Trump.”
    https://x.com/shannonrwatts/status/1982992298347499875

    Doesn't really sound like Carney's style, though.

    Sounds extremely unlikely.

    That said: in Canada and Brazil, it seems like the votes are for standing up for their countries independence. I think SKS would be wise to learn that lesson.
    He'll learn it if his spin doctors/PR team urge it, and he'll put out a patriotic tweet/fleg photo the next day.

    The very next day after that, he'll do something else - and probably call someone racist.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,489
    Sandpit said:

    Hurricane Melissa has arrived in Jamaica.

    https://x.com/met4castuk/status/1983209215234638194

    Doesn’t look good for the whole Western half of the island.

    I bet Helen Hunt is in the middle of that trying to release silly little flying censor balls.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,376

    Sandpit said:

    Hurricane Melissa has arrived in Jamaica.

    https://x.com/met4castuk/status/1983209215234638194

    Doesn’t look good for the whole Western half of the island.

    I bet Helen Hunt is in the middle of that trying to release silly little flying censor balls.
    Wrong type of low pressure system.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 131,117
    This does show how Reform needs to improve its vetting process. Many of the Reform candidates who won in May were paper candidates who did not expect to win until the Reform landslide in the local elections
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 131,117
    edited October 28
    ydoethur said:

    Meanwhile, the first local government reorganisation is out, with Surrey split into East and West.

    https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/surrey-local-government-reorganisation

    51% of respondents backed the 3 unitary proposal, just 19% the one the government are going with.

    That’s (a) going to be unpopular and (b) makes you wonder why they bothered with consultation at all if they’re just going to say, ‘fuck you all, we know better.’
    As Surrey is the only county in England with not a single Labour MP or council so the Labour government couldn't really care less what the voters in Surrey think
  • TresTres Posts: 3,161

    Farage has already said that his plan is to appoint a cabinet from outside parliament via appointments to the House of Lords. Presumably he knows as well as the rest of us the calibre of candidate his party is attracting.

    Also that anyone he appoints now is liable to fall out with him before the next election
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 131,117

    We are being right royally ripped off. We have just sent a card to congratulate family in Germany.. the card cost THREE POUNDS FIFTY PENCE to post. That's more than the fffing card.

    Sell off Royal Mail and then let them rip us off

    Its an effing disgrace.

    Well hardly anyone sends cards nowadays and those who do increasingly do so electronically, so there are no profits in it for Royal Mail unlike parcels so when they do deliver them the revenue raised from postage stamps needs to be enough to make it worthwhile.
  • isamisam Posts: 42,906
    edited October 28
    Interesting coverage from itv of the murder and stabbings yesterday in Uxbridge; interviewed locals who said they were worried about the influx of strangers, and the local who said it was Asian.

    (The interesting bit was that an Asian man said what would have been labelled bigoted had he been WWC, not to do with representation of minorities on tv)

    An Afghan, who looked completely crazy, murdered one man and stabbed two others yesterday in a residential street. Police have ruled out terrorism, and he wasn't a small boatee
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 131,117

    We are being right royally ripped off. We have just sent a card to congratulate family in Germany.. the card cost THREE POUNDS FIFTY PENCE to post. That's more than the fffing card.

    Sell off Royal Mail and then let them rip us off

    Its an effing disgrace.

    They need the money to urgently pay compensation to the Postmasters ….. oh wait!
    The Post Office is NOT Royal Mail but a completely separate organisation and has been since privatisation of RM, for starters the Post Office is still nationalised
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 131,117
    edited October 28

    Farage has already said that his plan is to appoint a cabinet from outside parliament via appointments to the House of Lords. Presumably he knows as well as the rest of us the calibre of candidate his party is attracting.

    Farage wants to abolish the Lords and have a fully elected upper house.

    He has said he will have outsiders in his Cabinet who aren't in Parliament, not that they will be appointed Peers, Yusuf suggested that but he is not party leader
  • TazTaz Posts: 21,805
    isam said:

    Interesting coverage from itv of the murder and stabbings yesterday in Uxbridge; interviewed locals who said they were worried about the influx of strangers, and the local who said it was Asian.

    (The interesting bit was that an Asian man said what would have been labelled bigoted had he been WWC, not to do with representation of minorities on tv)

    An Afghan, who looked completely crazy, murdered one man and stabbed two others yesterday in a residential street. Police have ruled out terrorism, and he wasn't a small boatee

    Rather akin to the debate on demographics in adverts then.

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