I find it increasingly bizarre that so many on here return to the question of Brexit at every opportunity, even if the links require the most tortuous of reasoning. Anyone who persuades themselves that it is still Brexit that is driving Reform or their voters is deluding themselves. The country has moved on, Brexit is neither the land of milk and honey promised or the disaster predicted. We have so many real and profound problems to address, not only economic (although they are particularly acute) but also cultural and social.
This is true and not true. Brexit as a distinct issue isn't driving Reform voters, it's in the past, however Reform voters were overwhelmingly Leavers (if old enough) and the set of attitudes, preoccupations and concerns (centred around immigration but not only that) which led them to vote for Brexit is pushing them towards Reform now. If (god forbid) Farage wins the next GE it will largely be because he's persuaded most of Johnson's 2019 Get Brexit Done coalition to come out and vote for him. "You told them what you wanted, they didn't listen, tell them again and this time for real".
Obviously many who voted for Brexit are now voting for Reform but I really don't believe Brexit itself has much to do with it. Their current obsessions are (1) immigration, especially illegal immigration which they think is much bigger than it actually is, as opposed to legal migration which is vastly bigger than they appreciate.
(2) Frustration that the government in particular but the public sector in general is simply not providing the services that they want, whether that is hospital or GP treatment in a sensible time, education for their kids, care for elderly relatives, decent roads, etc etc.
(3) A widely held perception that Labour has proven to be every bit as "useless" as the Tories in failing to address these problems and that the mainstream parties are simply not listening to people like them. Much of this is because they are being persuaded that there are simplistic and easy solutions when there is not but there is also enough truth in this to scare the mainstream parties.
Farage is using the same techniques and, well, lies, to build up these perceptions as he did Brexit. Its what he does. But unless and until so many people can simply move on from Brexit they will not get an audience from these supporters. This is so self evident even Starmer got it although I see that Reeves is back falling into the trap again.
I agree with most of that. My point is more that the Leave v Remain political identity divide forged by Brexit is still salient in our politics. It's the former pool where Farage is fishing and if he wins it will be off the back of a voter coalition looking very similar to Johnson's in 2019.
It wasn't leave v remain, it was the not doing that well versus the well off and nothing has changed...
In which case why has it led to a shift right rather than left?
Interesting. I just had my first ever doorstep polling experience, from RAJAR.
They want a 7 day radio diary.
I did one of those once - it was quite fun, but led to a few family discussions as to what we had actually listened to, rather than thought we remembered listening to. I was also given a rather nice biro.
Were they polite to you and used proper English (eg "May I come in please?") ?
Civil-service and polling body canvassers are one of the few bastions of vaguely-befuddled niceness left.
I can understand this. There is a very strong motivational factor that sits behind fitness technology which I think is actually really quite helpful, but the downside of that is it is very easy to become consumed by Data and fail to listen to your body.
This isn’t the same thing as the diet apps but my goodness the metrics that smart watches capture now are both a blessing and a curse.
I am on a 177 day streak for getting my 10k steps and it does drive me to go out and walk around the streets in the dark when I otherwise couldn't be arsed. That is probably a good thing. It also gets me to focus on my calorie burn which is also a good thing.
But it doesn't really stop me from eating too much or drinking too much. Weight loss has been very slow and may have ground to a halt well above a "healthy" weight.
On balance I find the Fitbit a good thing. But anyone who thinks that is the answer, problem solved, is deluding themselves. At the risk of stating the obvious it helps you find a healthier lifestyle, it is not a life style in itself.
I find it surprisingly easy to stick to 2000 calories of food a day. It's the 500 calories of booze which are slowing me down. I'm losing about 5kg a year, which is pretty weak. 10kg down, 10kg to go.
I think I consume more like 3k calories a day, 500 of which is also booze. If I consistently exceed that in calories burnt my weight edges down, if not it goes up. Working at home with regular access to the snack cupboards is a particular hazard. I do better when I am in court sipping water. I am doing much better than you though. I am down 6kg in only 10 months!
I'm the opposite: going to the office means endless homebakes (delicious) and trips to the pub.
WFH = runs at lunch and a healthy diet. At least my cycle commute burns a mars bar worth per day.
Losing weight is 90% diet, but exercise does help replaced the dopamine rush provided by sugar, so there's a second order effect.
Interesting. I just had my first ever doorstep polling experience, from RAJAR.
They want a 7 day radio diary.
I did one of those once - it was quite fun, but led to a few family discussions as to what we had actually listened to, rather than thought we remembered listening to. I was also given a rather nice biro.
Were they polite to you and used proper English (eg "May I come in please?") ?
Civil-service and polling body canvassers are one of the few bastions of vaguely-befuddled niceness left.
Yes - maybe that's why I agreed to help. Whereas the Chugger in the High Street who recently accosted me as "Bruv" and couldn't string a coherent sentence together, even in his Thames Valley Rastafarian argot, recived little sympathy from me.
I can understand this. There is a very strong motivational factor that sits behind fitness technology which I think is actually really quite helpful, but the downside of that is it is very easy to become consumed by Data and fail to listen to your body.
This isn’t the same thing as the diet apps but my goodness the metrics that smart watches capture now are both a blessing and a curse.
I am on a 177 day streak for getting my 10k steps and it does drive me to go out and walk around the streets in the dark when I otherwise couldn't be arsed. That is probably a good thing. It also gets me to focus on my calorie burn which is also a good thing.
But it doesn't really stop me from eating too much or drinking too much. Weight loss has been very slow and may have ground to a halt well above a "healthy" weight.
On balance I find the Fitbit a good thing. But anyone who thinks that is the answer, problem solved, is deluding themselves. At the risk of stating the obvious it helps you find a healthier lifestyle, it is not a life style in itself.
Walking 5 miles a day is quite a small amount, compared to what the human body evolved for. Unless you are ill or very old, this is very sustainable.
The problem comes with people who aren't especially fit, who are suddenly trying to *run* 10K per day. From nothing the week before.. So they knacker their knees (poor running gait, wrong trainers, tarmac etc) and put stress on the rest of their system, while failing to realise they need to build up.
From painful experience, the other thing that these trackers do is get you into the mind frame that your fitness must always be improving. So that running you’re doing was good last week, you need to sustain it or increase it the week after - look at the line going up on the graph, don’t you want it to keep going up? It means you’re healthier, improving, better, yadda yadda.
Then you get ill or over-exert yourself, have 4 weeks out, and your graph says you’re back at square one again.
Demonstrating an impressive commitment to understanding absolutely every aspect of the criminal justice system it oversees, the Ministry of Justice has this week got itself convicted of a crime.
In January a speed camera in Greater Manchester caught a Renault Trafic van registered to the MoJ blowing through a 50mph stretch of the M62 at 75mph.
Police sent their demand for the driver’s identity to an MoJ PO Box in Gwent, Wales, which had been identified as the address for the vehicle’s registered keeper.
After three reminders went unanswered the MoJ was sent a notice of intention to prosecute. That too was ignored, and when the case went before the Manchester City Magistrates’ court, the MoJ failed to appear or enter a plea.
In a closed door hearing, magistrate Mary Brough convicted the Ministry of failing to give information relating to the identification of the driver of a vehicle when required, reported the Standard.
The MoJ was also fined £1,000 and ordered to pay £120 in costs and a £400 victim surcharge.
Sounding like your typical chancer, a Ministry of Justice spokesperson said in a statement provided to RollOnFriday, “The notice was sent to the wrong address - an invoice PO Box managed by our contractor rather than the correct vehicle registration address - so it didn’t reach the right team".
The MoJ will now seek to overturn the embarrassing verdict. “As with any defendant in these circumstances, the case can be restarted by a statutory declaration and we are fixing the addressing issue to make sure it doesn’t happen again”, it said.
The MoJ said there was "no indication of deliberate inaction",
Finding itself in the invidious position of overseeing the organisation which gave it the conviction, the MoJ stated that while there was "no indication of deliberate inaction" on its part, there was equally "no suggestion the court process was flawed", either.
Despite everyone involved being absolutely blameless (apart from the white van man gassing it to Hull), the MoJ said it was, along with its contractor, "reviewing mail-handling processes to prevent similar issues in future".
Interesting. I just had my first ever doorstep polling experience, from RAJAR.
They want a 7 day radio diary.
I did one of those once - it was quite fun, but led to a few family discussions as to what we had actually listened to, rather than thought we remembered listening to. I was also given a rather nice biro.
Were they polite to you and used proper English (eg "May I come in please?") ?
Civil-service and polling body canvassers are one of the few bastions of vaguely-befuddled niceness left.
She didn't come in.
She sat on the path in the sun on a micro-mini camping stool. I put my trousers on (just out of the shower - down boy) and took a stool outside.
A very interesting chat - she has been doing it locally for 14 years, and apparently these days it is much easier to catch people at home.
Demonstrating an impressive commitment to understanding absolutely every aspect of the criminal justice system it oversees, the Ministry of Justice has this week got itself convicted of a crime.
In January a speed camera in Greater Manchester caught a Renault Trafic van registered to the MoJ blowing through a 50mph stretch of the M62 at 75mph.
Police sent their demand for the driver’s identity to an MoJ PO Box in Gwent, Wales, which had been identified as the address for the vehicle’s registered keeper.
After three reminders went unanswered the MoJ was sent a notice of intention to prosecute. That too was ignored, and when the case went before the Manchester City Magistrates’ court, the MoJ failed to appear or enter a plea.
In a closed door hearing, magistrate Mary Brough convicted the Ministry of failing to give information relating to the identification of the driver of a vehicle when required, reported the Standard.
The MoJ was also fined £1,000 and ordered to pay £120 in costs and a £400 victim surcharge.
Sounding like your typical chancer, a Ministry of Justice spokesperson said in a statement provided to RollOnFriday, “The notice was sent to the wrong address - an invoice PO Box managed by our contractor rather than the correct vehicle registration address - so it didn’t reach the right team".
The MoJ will now seek to overturn the embarrassing verdict. “As with any defendant in these circumstances, the case can be restarted by a statutory declaration and we are fixing the addressing issue to make sure it doesn’t happen again”, it said.
The MoJ said there was "no indication of deliberate inaction",
Finding itself in the invidious position of overseeing the organisation which gave it the conviction, the MoJ stated that while there was "no indication of deliberate inaction" on its part, there was equally "no suggestion the court process was flawed", either.
Despite everyone involved being absolutely blameless (apart from the white van man gassing it to Hull), the MoJ said it was, along with its contractor, "reviewing mail-handling processes to prevent similar issues in future".
There is a missing fact in the story: Was the paperwork sent to the address of the registered keeper, ie the address given by the registered keeper to the DVLA, or not. If it was, DOJ liable. If not, likely not.
The story here says both things, and hasn't checked the facts.
I can understand this. There is a very strong motivational factor that sits behind fitness technology which I think is actually really quite helpful, but the downside of that is it is very easy to become consumed by Data and fail to listen to your body.
This isn’t the same thing as the diet apps but my goodness the metrics that smart watches capture now are both a blessing and a curse.
I am on a 177 day streak for getting my 10k steps and it does drive me to go out and walk around the streets in the dark when I otherwise couldn't be arsed. That is probably a good thing. It also gets me to focus on my calorie burn which is also a good thing.
But it doesn't really stop me from eating too much or drinking too much. Weight loss has been very slow and may have ground to a halt well above a "healthy" weight.
On balance I find the Fitbit a good thing. But anyone who thinks that is the answer, problem solved, is deluding themselves. At the risk of stating the obvious it helps you find a healthier lifestyle, it is not a life style in itself.
How many of those steps are pacing up and down the courtroom haranguing the defence? Or does that only happen on the telly?
Demonstrating an impressive commitment to understanding absolutely every aspect of the criminal justice system it oversees, the Ministry of Justice has this week got itself convicted of a crime.
In January a speed camera in Greater Manchester caught a Renault Trafic van registered to the MoJ blowing through a 50mph stretch of the M62 at 75mph.
Police sent their demand for the driver’s identity to an MoJ PO Box in Gwent, Wales, which had been identified as the address for the vehicle’s registered keeper.
After three reminders went unanswered the MoJ was sent a notice of intention to prosecute. That too was ignored, and when the case went before the Manchester City Magistrates’ court, the MoJ failed to appear or enter a plea.
In a closed door hearing, magistrate Mary Brough convicted the Ministry of failing to give information relating to the identification of the driver of a vehicle when required, reported the Standard.
The MoJ was also fined £1,000 and ordered to pay £120 in costs and a £400 victim surcharge.
Sounding like your typical chancer, a Ministry of Justice spokesperson said in a statement provided to RollOnFriday, “The notice was sent to the wrong address - an invoice PO Box managed by our contractor rather than the correct vehicle registration address - so it didn’t reach the right team".
The MoJ will now seek to overturn the embarrassing verdict. “As with any defendant in these circumstances, the case can be restarted by a statutory declaration and we are fixing the addressing issue to make sure it doesn’t happen again”, it said.
The MoJ said there was "no indication of deliberate inaction",
Finding itself in the invidious position of overseeing the organisation which gave it the conviction, the MoJ stated that while there was "no indication of deliberate inaction" on its part, there was equally "no suggestion the court process was flawed", either.
Despite everyone involved being absolutely blameless (apart from the white van man gassing it to Hull), the MoJ said it was, along with its contractor, "reviewing mail-handling processes to prevent similar issues in future".
Thoughts and prayers for all those PBers who thought the China spy story would bring down Starmer.
Rishi Sunak only politician to see witness statement in China spy case
Statement from security adviser, viewed by then prime minister, did not describe China as enemy
Rishi Sunak was the only politician to see a witness statement by the deputy national security adviser at the centre of controversy about the collapse of a case against two British men accused of spying for China.
According to letters sent to the joint committee on the national security strategy, the statement from Matthew Collins in December 2023, which was seen by the then prime minister and his advisers, did not describe China as an enemy, another key element of the case.
The letters also set out that by this point, the start of the prosecution process, both police and prosecutors were told that Collins would not call China an enemy as this was not government policy.
Thoughts and prayers for all those PBers who thought the China spy story would bring down Starmer.
Rishi Sunak only politician to see witness statement in China spy case
Statement from security adviser, viewed by then prime minister, did not describe China as enemy
Rishi Sunak was the only politician to see a witness statement by the deputy national security adviser at the centre of controversy about the collapse of a case against two British men accused of spying for China.
According to letters sent to the joint committee on the national security strategy, the statement from Matthew Collins in December 2023, which was seen by the then prime minister and his advisers, did not describe China as an enemy, another key element of the case.
The letters also set out that by this point, the start of the prosecution process, both police and prosecutors were told that Collins would not call China an enemy as this was not government policy.
There is a problem currently with the electoral cycle, which perhaps is part of the reasons for both Labour and Tory doing so terribly.
In a five year (max) electoral cycle, the first up to two years are allowed for putting right everything the last lot got wrong, making sure everything is run brilliantly well, and starting action on the finely honed vision of the wonderful new lot. (July 2024-July 2026)
About two years before the next election end date, everyone starts being like PB is all the time and wondering about winners and losers next time (July 2027-July 2029 or election day if earlier).
Leaving 12 months for being a proper government in charge of its and the UK's destiny.
Even if this worked it would be a bit useless. At the moment it doesn't work at all. Of the many reasons for it, including the general sense of how unbrilliant it all is, is that there is almost no expectation that any particular party will last more than five years. The prospect of Reform victory doesn't change that picture much.
I find it increasingly bizarre that so many on here return to the question of Brexit at every opportunity, even if the links require the most tortuous of reasoning. Anyone who persuades themselves that it is still Brexit that is driving Reform or their voters is deluding themselves. The country has moved on, Brexit is neither the land of milk and honey promised or the disaster predicted. We have so many real and profound problems to address, not only economic (although they are particularly acute) but also cultural and social.
This is true and not true. Brexit as a distinct issue isn't driving Reform voters, it's in the past, however Reform voters were overwhelmingly Leavers (if old enough) and the set of attitudes, preoccupations and concerns (centred around immigration but not only that) which led them to vote for Brexit is pushing them towards Reform now. If (god forbid) Farage wins the next GE it will largely be because he's persuaded most of Johnson's 2019 Get Brexit Done coalition to come out and vote for him. "You told them what you wanted, they didn't listen, tell them again and this time for real".
Obviously many who voted for Brexit are now voting for Reform but I really don't believe Brexit itself has much to do with it. Their current obsessions are (1) immigration, especially illegal immigration which they think is much bigger than it actually is, as opposed to legal migration which is vastly bigger than they appreciate.
(2) Frustration that the government in particular but the public sector in general is simply not providing the services that they want, whether that is hospital or GP treatment in a sensible time, education for their kids, care for elderly relatives, decent roads, etc etc.
(3) A widely held perception that Labour has proven to be every bit as "useless" as the Tories in failing to address these problems and that the mainstream parties are simply not listening to people like them. Much of this is because they are being persuaded that there are simplistic and easy solutions when there is not but there is also enough truth in this to scare the mainstream parties.
Farage is using the same techniques and, well, lies, to build up these perceptions as he did Brexit. Its what he does. But unless and until so many people can simply move on from Brexit they will not get an audience from these supporters. This is so self evident even Starmer got it although I see that Reeves is back falling into the trap again.
I agree with most of that. My point is more that the Leave v Remain political identity divide forged by Brexit is still salient in our politics. It's the former pool where Farage is fishing and if he wins it will be off the back of a voter coalition looking very similar to Johnson's in 2019.
It wasn't leave v remain, it was the not doing that well versus the well off and nothing has changed...
People living in left-behind areas were more likely to support Brexit than those living in prosperous areas. The gains of Brexit were perceived to be greater in areas of the country that had experienced economic decline. But within those areas, given people's preferences, we show that wealthier individuals were more likely to vote for Brexit, and poorer individuals were more likely to vote for Remain.
Which sort of fits the Red Wall stereotype. Also the Eastern Wall aspect of the Reform map. Kent and Essex aren't poor, but they are distinctly second-tier Home Counties.
A tricky tangle of problems to solve, especially since many of the things that might help economically (more tax for more public spending; becoming more like London/Manchester) are culturally taboo.
A decade after Falcon 9 first demonstrated vertical landing of a first stage, China is having a go. Blue Origin had an attempt earlier this year, with their first flight of their New Glenn rocket.
Form the rest of the launch industry - not much.
From European Space - well, they've stopped firing people for advocating Themis. That's something.
🏴Scottish nationalists will run Holyrood 🏴Welsh nationalists will run the Senedd 🇮🇪Irish nationalists will run Stormont 🏴English nationalists will run Westminster
🇬🇧People who believe in the UK need to reimagine it.
And if thats true the left will love it in Wales and Scotland and hate it in England. England is not allowed to be nationalist, only the poor little celtic nations are. Pride in your flag in Wales and Scotland means you are proud to be Welsh/Scottish. Pride in your flag in England means you are a nasty little racist.
Not really, it’s only since the far right appropriated the flag as ‘their thing’ to the exclusion of everybody else that it is devaluing it. I love seeing the flag in appropriate places, as any citizen of any country does. And if people want to fly it on their own property that’s fine too. But littering whole avenues worth of street furniture with cheap Chinese tat and cable ties not. so. much.
🏴Scottish nationalists will run Holyrood 🏴Welsh nationalists will run the Senedd 🇮🇪Irish nationalists will run Stormont 🏴English nationalists will run Westminster
🇬🇧People who believe in the UK need to reimagine it.
And if thats true the left will love it in Wales and Scotland and hate it in England. England is not allowed to be nationalist, only the poor little celtic nations are. Pride in your flag in Wales and Scotland means you are proud to be Welsh/Scottish. Pride in your flag in England means you are a nasty little racist.
Not really, it’s only since the far right appropriated the flag as ‘their thing’ to the exclusion of everybody else that it is devaluing it. I love seeing the flag in appropriate places, as any citizen of any country does. And if people want to fly it on their own property that’s fine too. But littering whole avenues worth of street furniture with cheap Chinese tat and cable ties not. so. much.
I don't really think it woukd be possible for the far right to 'appropriate' it in the absence of an oddly large opposite number who disavow or are uncomfortable with it.
It'd be laughed off not worried about without that.
I can understand this. There is a very strong motivational factor that sits behind fitness technology which I think is actually really quite helpful, but the downside of that is it is very easy to become consumed by Data and fail to listen to your body.
This isn’t the same thing as the diet apps but my goodness the metrics that smart watches capture now are both a blessing and a curse.
I am on a 177 day streak for getting my 10k steps and it does drive me to go out and walk around the streets in the dark when I otherwise couldn't be arsed. That is probably a good thing. It also gets me to focus on my calorie burn which is also a good thing.
But it doesn't really stop me from eating too much or drinking too much. Weight loss has been very slow and may have ground to a halt well above a "healthy" weight.
On balance I find the Fitbit a good thing. But anyone who thinks that is the answer, problem solved, is deluding themselves. At the risk of stating the obvious it helps you find a healthier lifestyle, it is not a life style in itself.
How many of those steps are pacing up and down the courtroom haranguing the defence? Or does that only happen on the telly?
Only on the telly, I'm afraid. IRL the proceedings are recorded so you are stuck by your microphone and not able to wander.
Thoughts and prayers for all those PBers who thought the China spy story would bring down Starmer.
Rishi Sunak only politician to see witness statement in China spy case
Statement from security adviser, viewed by then prime minister, did not describe China as enemy
Rishi Sunak was the only politician to see a witness statement by the deputy national security adviser at the centre of controversy about the collapse of a case against two British men accused of spying for China.
According to letters sent to the joint committee on the national security strategy, the statement from Matthew Collins in December 2023, which was seen by the then prime minister and his advisers, did not describe China as an enemy, another key element of the case.
The letters also set out that by this point, the start of the prosecution process, both police and prosecutors were told that Collins would not call China an enemy as this was not government policy.
..Drafts of a statement provided to DNSA included the term 'enemy' but he removed this term from the final draft as it did not reflect government policy." Collins said he sent a final version of the draft to the prime minister at the time, Rishi Sunak, and his special advisers. He said at this point, police were told he "could not call China an 'enemy' as this did not reflect government policy"...
I mean, I get it. Starmer is pretty crap.
But the continual attempts to blame him for the previous government's policy blunders and controversies are getting a bit wearing.
BBCR4 news bulletins have been celebrating what they had assumed was a Reform win.
WATO framing this as a Labour drubbing (which it is) but not a Plaid win. Again promoting Reform's 35% rather than the Plaid win. David Bull on now. Nice promotion of Andrew RT Davies at the moment.
Thoughts and prayers for all those PBers who thought the China spy story would bring down Starmer.
Rishi Sunak only politician to see witness statement in China spy case
Statement from security adviser, viewed by then prime minister, did not describe China as enemy
Rishi Sunak was the only politician to see a witness statement by the deputy national security adviser at the centre of controversy about the collapse of a case against two British men accused of spying for China.
According to letters sent to the joint committee on the national security strategy, the statement from Matthew Collins in December 2023, which was seen by the then prime minister and his advisers, did not describe China as an enemy, another key element of the case.
The letters also set out that by this point, the start of the prosecution process, both police and prosecutors were told that Collins would not call China an enemy as this was not government policy.
..Drafts of a statement provided to DNSA included the term 'enemy' but he removed this term from the final draft as it did not reflect government policy." Collins said he sent a final version of the draft to the prime minister at the time, Rishi Sunak, and his special advisers. He said at this point, police were told he "could not call China an 'enemy' as this did not reflect government policy"...
I mean, I get it. Starmer is pretty crap.
But the continual attempts to blame him for the previous government's policy blunders and controversies are getting a bit wearing.
I know, as I said at the time I wish these posters would put their money on Betfair.
🏴Scottish nationalists will run Holyrood 🏴Welsh nationalists will run the Senedd 🇮🇪Irish nationalists will run Stormont 🏴English nationalists will run Westminster
🇬🇧People who believe in the UK need to reimagine it.
And if thats true the left will love it in Wales and Scotland and hate it in England. England is not allowed to be nationalist, only the poor little celtic nations are. Pride in your flag in Wales and Scotland means you are proud to be Welsh/Scottish. Pride in your flag in England means you are a nasty little racist.
Not really, it’s only since the far right appropriated the flag as ‘their thing’ to the exclusion of everybody else that it is devaluing it. I love seeing the flag in appropriate places, as any citizen of any country does. And if people want to fly it on their own property that’s fine too. But littering whole avenues worth of street furniture with cheap Chinese tat and cable ties not. so. much.
I don't really think it woukd be possible for the far right to 'appropriate' it in the absence of an oddly large opposite number who disavow or are uncomfortable with it.
It'd be laughed off not worried about without that.
I don't think so; they do it anyway afaics. It very clearly is seen as "our flag" representing "the patriotic British community".
But when he was maintaining a traffic camera an engineer was had his ladder pushed over when he was on it by outraged flag waggers who decided he was removing it.
This is on top of £500k on sticky-plaster repairs to the old Council Building so they can stay there.
Who owns the company charging £500 for a flag?
Well, if you do it properly, rather than attach them to a lamppost half way up with cable ties and one corner inevitably rips out, it is going to take some money
Thoughts and prayers for all those PBers who thought the China spy story would bring down Starmer.
Rishi Sunak only politician to see witness statement in China spy case
Statement from security adviser, viewed by then prime minister, did not describe China as enemy
Rishi Sunak was the only politician to see a witness statement by the deputy national security adviser at the centre of controversy about the collapse of a case against two British men accused of spying for China.
According to letters sent to the joint committee on the national security strategy, the statement from Matthew Collins in December 2023, which was seen by the then prime minister and his advisers, did not describe China as an enemy, another key element of the case.
The letters also set out that by this point, the start of the prosecution process, both police and prosecutors were told that Collins would not call China an enemy as this was not government policy.
OT - Darlington 1983, Peterborough 2019, Caerphilly 2025
Yesterday was proof candidate quality really can matter in by-elections but ultimately it was proof, despite some claims, that high turnout is very bad for Reform.
Meanwhile just like the last General Election and Runcorn Reform's position was over-stated in the polls - in this case sharply. That's something to keep an eye on.
Looking at the polls and local by-elections it seems Reform MAY have peaked - hence many journalists today protesting they have not. The would-be new elite do like to protect their 'narratives'. It also seems the polls and Local Bys are split on the Green / LD strength. Maybe some more London polls could provide the answer to that.
Overall - 'good' second places do not a landslide make.
BBCR4 news bulletins have been celebrating what they had assumed was a Reform win.
WATO framing this as a Labour drubbing (which it is) but not a Plaid win. Again promoting Reform's 35% rather than the Plaid win. David Bull on now. Nice promotion of Andrew RT Davies at the moment.
Why don't the BBC join forces with GBNews on the support of the fukkers and have done with it!!
"Such is their fear of jail, bankruptcy or reprisal, that most people I spoke to insisted on anonymity. This was in spite of the fact that many also said Trump would only be restrained by people standing up to him." My Weekend FT essay. https://x.com/EdwardGLuce/status/1981657552636026948
But 0% to 36% in one election cycle is pretty impressive too. Or should that be pretty worrying?
Good morning, everybody.
Adonis has told Guardian he thinks it shows how a group of voters will get behind whoever seems strongest/likeliest at the time to block Reform.
Would be interesting to see if Labour and Lib Dem supporters would vote Tory if the Tories are the best chance to stop Reform or is that going too far? Has there been any polling on this?
There has been some private polling which says yes but there's a huge caveat, the focus groups have picked up Robert Jenrick's and Katie Lam's recent comments and those tactical voters have said no now as they see nothing that distinguishes the Tories from Reform.
The thought of deporting people who are here lawfully is particularly repugnant to voters, see the Windrush scandal.
I’m not sure Windrush is entirely analogous though. Wasn’t that a case of the state screwing up and deporting people who had the right to remain but didn’t have the paperwork?
If the state chooses to retrospectively withdraw/put additional conditions on the right to remain indefinitely, then that is tough on the individuals concerned but legitimate. Of course this doesn’t mean ICE breaking down their doors the next morning - people would rightly revolt against that - but giving them 6-12 months to leave in an orderly fashion.
It only sounds legitimate to me in the case of a war and 'enemy aliens'. People build lives.
But that’s the point: you are making a value judgement that you don’t like it vs the government making a mistake
You have the wrong heroes. ML King and Bishop Tutu are the ones who were used to destroy the American Republic and South Africa.
And the solidarity movement used to destroy Poland."
That's fairly straight down the line.
The video was of Rev Dan (Vicar of Chalfont St Giles - these are his personal thinking space) suggesting that "Christian Nationalism" is "cultural Christianity" not 'the Gospel' (ie he is looking more spiritually than materially, based on his - Dan's - suggestion that Christian Nationalism is an attempt to construct a Church ruled society in the here and now.) Dan's emphasis is on personal salvation as the basis.
I put a slightly different spin on the "cultural Christianity bit", suggesting that CN is actually modernist values imposed on the Bible, suggesting that the USA will require now its MLKs, Desmond Tutus and Jerzy Popiełuszkos to get them out of their hole.
BBCR4 news bulletins have been celebrating what they had assumed was a Reform win.
WATO framing this as a Labour drubbing (which it is) but not a Plaid win. Again promoting Reform's 35% rather than the Plaid win. David Bull on now. Nice promotion of Andrew RT Davies at the moment.
Why don't the BBC join forces with GBNews on the support of the fukkers and have done with it!!
I assume they had lined up the UKIP interviewees in anticipation of the Reform win. They probably hadn't considered a plan B.
The next general election is going to be all about tactical voting. Britons are very good at tactical voting and centre-left Britons are especially good at it. One thing that I am a little more sure about today is that there is a majority of us who really hate Reform and its dishonest and divisive approach to politics, and I think that this majority may be more effective than people expect at locking Reform out of power.
So much easier to hate than to come up with a positive reason to vote for your side
The voter is sovereign and can vote how he pleases. It is as legitimate to vote against a party as it is for one, if that is what is important to you. I also don't have "a side" so if a party I normally vote for doesn't give me good reasons to do so, I will vote for someone else.
It was the positioning it as “hate” that is disturbing.
Thoughts and prayers for all those PBers who thought the China spy story would bring down Starmer.
Rishi Sunak only politician to see witness statement in China spy case
Statement from security adviser, viewed by then prime minister, did not describe China as enemy
Rishi Sunak was the only politician to see a witness statement by the deputy national security adviser at the centre of controversy about the collapse of a case against two British men accused of spying for China.
According to letters sent to the joint committee on the national security strategy, the statement from Matthew Collins in December 2023, which was seen by the then prime minister and his advisers, did not describe China as an enemy, another key element of the case.
The letters also set out that by this point, the start of the prosecution process, both police and prosecutors were told that Collins would not call China an enemy as this was not government policy.
None of this is surprising but what is odd is this obsession with the word "enemy". The Act talked about "prejudicial to the safety or interests of the State". Surely spying is clearly that whether done by friend or foe? I still think the DPP got this wrong and was wrong to drop the prosecution.
You could argue that the biggest story is change. So, what were the biggest changes in vote share in Caerphilly?
The biggest change was the fall in the Labour vote, closely followed by the rise in the Reform UK vote, more distantly followed by the rise in the Plaid Cymru vote and then the fall in the Tory vote. So, practically, Plaid winning is what matters most, but when it comes to prognostications about the future, Labour collapse, Reform rocketing up is arguably the bigger story.
That said, as TSE noted, perhaps the real story is the anti-Reform tactical voting…
The next general election is going to be all about tactical voting. Britons are very good at tactical voting and centre-left Britons are especially good at it. One thing that I am a little more sure about today is that there is a majority of us who really hate Reform and its dishonest and divisive approach to politics, and I think that this majority may be more effective than people expect at locking Reform out of power.
So much easier to hate than to come up with a positive reason to vote for your side
"So much easier to hate" is Reform’s entire modus operandi.
Sure. But that’s doesn’t mean it’s ok to respond in kind
The 'surprisingly high' turnout doesn't really feel like a positive to me.
It indicates that people were motivated to get out and vote one way or t'other, and bully for them, but what about those of us who see nothing good about either realistic option?!?
If I was faced with a choice between Reform and PC, I'd almost certainly be thinking 'fuck it, I shan't bother'. I didn't bother voting in last week's Surrey CC by-election - for the first time in my life - because the LDs were a shoe-in and the only realistic contender was Reform.
The fact that some are politically energised by something I find off-putting indicates an even deeper divide, I think.
You could argue that the biggest story is change. So, what were the biggest changes in vote share in Caerphilly?
The biggest change was the fall in the Labour vote, closely followed by the rise in the Reform UK vote, more distantly followed by the rise in the Plaid Cymru vote and then the fall in the Tory vote. So, practically, Plaid winning is what matters most, but when it comes to prognostications about the future, Labour collapse, Reform rocketing up is arguably the bigger story.
That said, as TSE noted, perhaps the real story is the anti-Reform tactical voting…
The seismic collapse in Labour should be reported in detail and applied to next May, but equally the Plaid coalition of voters is being ignored in favour of the Reform performance.
The 'surprisingly high' turnout doesn't really feel like a positive to me.
It indicates that people were motivated to get out and vote one way or t'other, and bully for them, but what about those of us who see nothing good about either realistic option?!?
If I was faced with a choice between Reform and PC, I'd almost certainly be thinking 'fuck it, I shan't bother'. I didn't bother voting in last week's Surrey CC by-election - for the first time in my life - because the LDs were a shoe-in and the only realistic contender was Reform.
The fact that some are politically energised by something I find off-putting indicates an even deeper divide, I think.
An interesting take, but id still take more people engaging with the political process as broadly positive.
The multi culti way strikes again. This echoes the Victoria Climbie case, which prompted Trevor Phillips to disown all he’d previously said about multiculturalism
Astounding.
A headteacher was accused of ‘racially profiling’ Axel Rudakubana as a ‘black boy with a knife.’ That shut down her ability to raise the risk he posed.
We need our institutions to be able to speak freely about difficult issues.
This shows the risk of imposing an Islamophobia definition on the public sector.
Thoughts and prayers for all those PBers who thought the China spy story would bring down Starmer.
Rishi Sunak only politician to see witness statement in China spy case
Statement from security adviser, viewed by then prime minister, did not describe China as enemy
Rishi Sunak was the only politician to see a witness statement by the deputy national security adviser at the centre of controversy about the collapse of a case against two British men accused of spying for China.
According to letters sent to the joint committee on the national security strategy, the statement from Matthew Collins in December 2023, which was seen by the then prime minister and his advisers, did not describe China as an enemy, another key element of the case.
The letters also set out that by this point, the start of the prosecution process, both police and prosecutors were told that Collins would not call China an enemy as this was not government policy.
None of this is surprising but what is odd is this obsession with the word "enemy". The Act talked about "prejudicial to the safety or interests of the State". Surely spying is clearly that whether done by friend or foe? I still think the DPP got this wrong and was wrong to drop the prosecution.
Every other country I can think of regards spying by “friends” as… spying
The multi culti way strikes again. This echoes the Victoria Climbie case, which prompted Trevor Phillips to disown all he’d previously said about multiculturalism
Astounding.
A headteacher was accused of ‘racially profiling’ Axel Rudakubana as a ‘black boy with a knife.’ That shut down her ability to raise the risk he posed.
We need our institutions to be able to speak freely about difficult issues.
This shows the risk of imposing an Islamophobia definition on the public sector.
People underestimate the dangers of being too careful with language even as we easily usually recognise the dangers of being careless with it. It's not risk free to make everything blandly phrased.
And i say that as the most milquetoast individual ever.
Reform’s failure to take Caerphilly seems meaningful.
Yes, there might be better prospects in other parts of South Wales, but this was a seat where 56% voted Leave. Reform’s forward momentum has stalled, at the same time as a growing unease about the party’s loyalty to the UK and their deportation policies.
We’ve learned that centrist and left voters - including some Tories - will vote for whoever is most likely to beat Reform.
We’ve learned that the MLR polls should be taken with a pinch of salt, and that a Reform led government is not an inevitability in the way many of the media have started to suggest.
We’ve learned that Plaid Cymru will very likely lead the next Welsh government, and that Rhun ap Iorwerth will be the next First Leader.
As a complete aside, does anyone know what is happening to Your Party? They are supposed to be having a vote on the name this month and only have a week left.
According to Open Council Data they now have 27 councillors, including 3 recent defections from the Scottish Greens, which is slightly larger than the Havering Residents' Association
You could argue that the biggest story is change. So, what were the biggest changes in vote share in Caerphilly?
The biggest change was the fall in the Labour vote, closely followed by the rise in the Reform UK vote, more distantly followed by the rise in the Plaid Cymru vote and then the fall in the Tory vote. So, practically, Plaid winning is what matters most, but when it comes to prognostications about the future, Labour collapse, Reform rocketing up is arguably the bigger story.
That said, as TSE noted, perhaps the real story is the anti-Reform tactical voting…
The swing from Labour to PC last night did not exceed that in the Caerphilly by-election of 1968, but the prior gap between these 2 parties then was a little too much for PC to overcome, so Labour scraped home.
The next general election is going to be all about tactical voting. Britons are very good at tactical voting and centre-left Britons are especially good at it. One thing that I am a little more sure about today is that there is a majority of us who really hate Reform and its dishonest and divisive approach to politics, and I think that this majority may be more effective than people expect at locking Reform out of power.
So much easier to hate than to come up with a positive reason to vote for your side
"So much easier to hate" is Reform’s entire modus operandi.
Sure. But that’s doesn’t mean it’s ok to respond in kind
They pose a threat to my family, they're liars, they have no real answers and they would probably trigger a devastating economic and social crisis if they ever won power so yeah, I can't stand them. Sorry if that's not kumbaya enough for you.
Thoughts and prayers for all those PBers who thought the China spy story would bring down Starmer.
Rishi Sunak only politician to see witness statement in China spy case
Statement from security adviser, viewed by then prime minister, did not describe China as enemy
Rishi Sunak was the only politician to see a witness statement by the deputy national security adviser at the centre of controversy about the collapse of a case against two British men accused of spying for China.
According to letters sent to the joint committee on the national security strategy, the statement from Matthew Collins in December 2023, which was seen by the then prime minister and his advisers, did not describe China as an enemy, another key element of the case.
The letters also set out that by this point, the start of the prosecution process, both police and prosecutors were told that Collins would not call China an enemy as this was not government policy.
None of this is surprising but what is odd is this obsession with the word "enemy". The Act talked about "prejudicial to the safety or interests of the State". Surely spying is clearly that whether done by friend or foe? I still think the DPP got this wrong and was wrong to drop the prosecution.
Every other country I can think of regards spying by “friends” as… spying
Because that’s what it is.
This seems to be yet another example of Britain’s process state delivering perverse outcomes, and nobody seemingly at the tiller able to impose sanity.
Or maybe the tiller is broken. Or there is no tiller.
As an electorate, that palpable feeling of lack of agency is what lies behind Brexit and so much of modern British life.
As a complete aside, does anyone know what is happening to Your Party? They are supposed to be having a vote on the name this month and only have a week left.
According to Open Council Data they now have 27 councillors, including 3 recent defections from the Scottish Greens, which is slightly larger than the Havering Residents' Association
Sadly no recent bust ups seem to have grabbed attention. Feels disorganised and fractious, but with enough support for the idea to make a go of it.
The next general election is going to be all about tactical voting. Britons are very good at tactical voting and centre-left Britons are especially good at it. One thing that I am a little more sure about today is that there is a majority of us who really hate Reform and its dishonest and divisive approach to politics, and I think that this majority may be more effective than people expect at locking Reform out of power.
So much easier to hate than to come up with a positive reason to vote for your side
"So much easier to hate" is Reform’s entire modus operandi.
Sure. But that’s doesn’t mean it’s ok to respond in kind
They pose a threat to my family, they're liars, they have no real answers and they would probably trigger a devastating economic and social crisis if they ever won power so yeah, I can't stand them. Sorry if that's not kumbaya enough for you.
Stillwaters seems to think that invoking ICE is a perfectly reasonable thing to do. He must live in an ivory tower.
Reform’s failure to take Caerphilly seems meaningful.
Yes, there might be better prospects in other parts of South Wales, but this was a seat where 56% voted Leave. Reform’s forward momentum has stalled, at the same time as a growing unease about the party’s loyalty to the UK and their deportation policies.
We’ve learned that centrist and left voters - including some Tories - will vote for whoever is most likely to beat Reform.
We’ve learned that the MLR polls should be taken with a pinch of salt, and that a Reform led government is not an inevitability in the way many of the media have started to suggest.
We’ve learned that Plaid Cymru will very likely lead the next Welsh government, and that Rhun ap Iorwerth will be the next First Leader.
Could well be the case that while Starmer became PM on relatively few votes and a low percentage of what votes were cast due to the fracturing of his opponents, Farage may fail to become PM despite winning more votes and a higher percentage, because his opponents team up.
Such is life
I think Reform will poll more likely 25 than 35 and the best way for Farage to approach things is to team up with the Tories. You can’t have a party going from 5 MPs to a majority, it’s not British! It would make me feel uncomfortable
PBers may be interested in a couple of elections taking place soon - for President and Vice-President of the Liberal Democrats. Going to replace Mark Pack as President are Josh Barbarinde MP and Pru Bray ( known to some of you out there). For Vice-President it is Victoria Collins MP or Kamran Hussain. This raises the question of whether these party officials should be MPs or not - that may be as important as their individual qualities.
Thoughts and prayers for all those PBers who thought the China spy story would bring down Starmer.
Rishi Sunak only politician to see witness statement in China spy case
Statement from security adviser, viewed by then prime minister, did not describe China as enemy
Rishi Sunak was the only politician to see a witness statement by the deputy national security adviser at the centre of controversy about the collapse of a case against two British men accused of spying for China.
According to letters sent to the joint committee on the national security strategy, the statement from Matthew Collins in December 2023, which was seen by the then prime minister and his advisers, did not describe China as an enemy, another key element of the case.
The letters also set out that by this point, the start of the prosecution process, both police and prosecutors were told that Collins would not call China an enemy as this was not government policy.
None of this is surprising but what is odd is this obsession with the word "enemy". The Act talked about "prejudicial to the safety or interests of the State". Surely spying is clearly that whether done by friend or foe? I still think the DPP got this wrong and was wrong to drop the prosecution.
Every other country I can think of regards spying by “friends” as… spying
Because that’s what it is.
The 1989 act has zero uses of the word “enemy”
The 1911 act uses with regards to sketches and plans of prohibited places.
The 1989 act is about tightening up on documents. Surely this is the one they were prosecuted on?
IIRC many lawyers objected to the 1989 act on the grounds that it meant *any disclosure to anyone* not just “enemies”
As a complete aside, does anyone know what is happening to Your Party? They are supposed to be having a vote on the name this month and only have a week left.
According to Open Council Data they now have 27 councillors, including 3 recent defections from the Scottish Greens, which is slightly larger than the Havering Residents' Association
Sadly no recent bust ups seem to have grabbed attention. Feels disorganised and fractious, but with enough support for the idea to make a go of it.
In Havering Residents Association? They're at it all the time.
Thoughts and prayers for all those PBers who thought the China spy story would bring down Starmer.
Rishi Sunak only politician to see witness statement in China spy case
Statement from security adviser, viewed by then prime minister, did not describe China as enemy
Rishi Sunak was the only politician to see a witness statement by the deputy national security adviser at the centre of controversy about the collapse of a case against two British men accused of spying for China.
According to letters sent to the joint committee on the national security strategy, the statement from Matthew Collins in December 2023, which was seen by the then prime minister and his advisers, did not describe China as an enemy, another key element of the case.
The letters also set out that by this point, the start of the prosecution process, both police and prosecutors were told that Collins would not call China an enemy as this was not government policy.
As a complete aside, does anyone know what is happening to Your Party? They are supposed to be having a vote on the name this month and only have a week left.
According to Open Council Data they now have 27 councillors, including 3 recent defections from the Scottish Greens, which is slightly larger than the Havering Residents' Association
Sadly no recent bust ups seem to have grabbed attention. Feels disorganised and fractious, but with enough support for the idea to make a go of it.
In Havering Residents Association? They're at it all the time.
Is that the People’s Front for Havering Residents Association, or the Popular Front for Havering Residents Association?
The multi culti way strikes again. This echoes the Victoria Climbie case, which prompted Trevor Phillips to disown all he’d previously said about multiculturalism
Astounding.
A headteacher was accused of ‘racially profiling’ Axel Rudakubana as a ‘black boy with a knife.’ That shut down her ability to raise the risk he posed.
We need our institutions to be able to speak freely about difficult issues.
This shows the risk of imposing an Islamophobia definition on the public sector.
PBers may be interested in a couple of elections taking place soon - for President and Vice-President of the Liberal Democrats. Going to replace Mark Pack as President are Josh Barbarinde MP and Pru Bray ( known to some of you out there). For Vice-President it is Victoria Collins MP or Kamran Hussain. This raises the question of whether these party officials should be MPs or not - that may be as important as their individual qualities.
Mark Pack is the man behind their electoral success. Where’s he going?
Josh Barabarinde was recently name-checked by Zach Polanski as from the same wing of the LDs as he formerly was, by which I assume that Barbarinde is the opposite of an Orange Booker.
PBers may be interested in a couple of elections taking place soon - for President and Vice-President of the Liberal Democrats. Going to replace Mark Pack as President are Josh Barbarinde MP and Pru Bray ( known to some of you out there). For Vice-President it is Victoria Collins MP or Kamran Hussain. This raises the question of whether these party officials should be MPs or not - that may be as important as their individual qualities.
That was a bit of a non-question last time around as there were only a tiny number of MPs, which would make it impractical.
PBers may be interested in a couple of elections taking place soon - for President and Vice-President of the Liberal Democrats. Going to replace Mark Pack as President are Josh Barbarinde MP and Pru Bray ( known to some of you out there). For Vice-President it is Victoria Collins MP or Kamran Hussain. This raises the question of whether these party officials should be MPs or not - that may be as important as their individual qualities.
Mark Pack is the man behind their electoral success. Where’s he going?
Josh Barabarinde was recently name-checked by Zach Polanski as from the same wing of the LDs as he formerly was, by which I assume that Barbarinde is the opposite of an Orange Booker.
I haven't heard anything, but I'd say he'd be into analysis, strategy and base-building for the next Election.
He put out a quite an interesting paper about prospects earlier in the summer.
As a complete aside, does anyone know what is happening to Your Party? They are supposed to be having a vote on the name this month and only have a week left.
According to Open Council Data they now have 27 councillors, including 3 recent defections from the Scottish Greens, which is slightly larger than the Havering Residents' Association
Sadly no recent bust ups seem to have grabbed attention. Feels disorganised and fractious, but with enough support for the idea to make a go of it.
In Havering Residents Association? They're at it all the time.
Is that the People’s Front for Havering Residents Association, or the Popular Front for Havering Residents Association?
Hard to tell. At present, the council run by Havering Residents Association + Hornchurch Residents Association + Upminster & Cranham Residents Association
There is also, in opposition, the Harold Wood Residents Association. There used to be an Independent Residents Association, who made Farage look like a wet centrist.
The multi culti way strikes again. This echoes the Victoria Climbie case, which prompted Trevor Phillips to disown all he’d previously said about multiculturalism
Astounding.
A headteacher was accused of ‘racially profiling’ Axel Rudakubana as a ‘black boy with a knife.’ That shut down her ability to raise the risk he posed.
We need our institutions to be able to speak freely about difficult issues.
This shows the risk of imposing an Islamophobia definition on the public sector.
The multi culti way strikes again. This echoes the Victoria Climbie case, which prompted Trevor Phillips to disown all he’d previously said about multiculturalism
Astounding.
A headteacher was accused of ‘racially profiling’ Axel Rudakubana as a ‘black boy with a knife.’ That shut down her ability to raise the risk he posed.
We need our institutions to be able to speak freely about difficult issues.
This shows the risk of imposing an Islamophobia definition on the public sector.
People underestimate the dangers of being too careful with language even as we easily usually recognise the dangers of being careless with it. It's not risk free to make everything blandly phrased.
And i say that as the most milquetoast individual ever.
Ideally we should say exactly what we mean and no more and no less. I can think of times when I've hidden behind vagueness, for fear of being wrong, and of exaggerating for effect. The former feels comfortable and safe, and the latter is entertaining and satisfying, but neither really do a service to clearly communicating with others - which is what is important when you're dealing with a safety issue.
As a complete aside, does anyone know what is happening to Your Party? They are supposed to be having a vote on the name this month and only have a week left.
According to Open Council Data they now have 27 councillors, including 3 recent defections from the Scottish Greens, which is slightly larger than the Havering Residents' Association
Sadly no recent bust ups seem to have grabbed attention. Feels disorganised and fractious, but with enough support for the idea to make a go of it.
In Havering Residents Association? They're at it all the time.
Is that the People’s Front for Havering Residents Association, or the Popular Front for Havering Residents Association?
Hard to tell. At present, the council run by Havering Residents Association + Hornchurch Residents Association + Upminster & Cranham Residents Association
There is also, in opposition, the Harold Wood Residents Association. There used to be an Independent Residents Association, who made Farage look like a wet centrist.
PBers may be interested in a couple of elections taking place soon - for President and Vice-President of the Liberal Democrats. Going to replace Mark Pack as President are Josh Barbarinde MP and Pru Bray ( known to some of you out there). For Vice-President it is Victoria Collins MP or Kamran Hussain. This raises the question of whether these party officials should be MPs or not - that may be as important as their individual qualities.
Mark Pack is the man behind their electoral success. Where’s he going?
Josh Barabarinde was recently name-checked by Zach Polanski as from the same wing of the LDs as he formerly was, by which I assume that Barbarinde is the opposite of an Orange Booker.
He’s not Zach, short for Zachary
His made up name is Zack
I’m almost certain that he named himself after the cool kid in Saved By The Bell
I just looked again at the electoral system coming in for Wales at the next Senedd elections.
There’s just something ungainly and repellent about it.
It also makes opinion polling almost impossible, I’d have thought.
d'Hondt you like it?
I think it is a wonderful system - I advocate it for General Elections.
All of Bradford district in one big constituency, with seats won aligned with votes cast.
Closed-list PR is the worst PR system. The only way the system to be used in Wales could be worse was if they had national lists instead of constituency lists.
One consequence is that there will never be another by-election. The next party stooge on the list will replace anyone who dies or resigns.
As a complete aside, does anyone know what is happening to Your Party? They are supposed to be having a vote on the name this month and only have a week left.
According to Open Council Data they now have 27 councillors, including 3 recent defections from the Scottish Greens, which is slightly larger than the Havering Residents' Association
Sadly no recent bust ups seem to have grabbed attention. Feels disorganised and fractious, but with enough support for the idea to make a go of it.
In Havering Residents Association? They're at it all the time.
Is that the People’s Front for Havering Residents Association, or the Popular Front for Havering Residents Association?
Hard to tell. At present, the council run by Havering Residents Association + Hornchurch Residents Association + Upminster & Cranham Residents Association
There is also, in opposition, the Harold Wood Residents Association. There used to be an Independent Residents Association, who made Farage look like a wet centrist.
It's not a bad model for the way national politics seems to be going. Groups whose main focus is their local patch (goodies for us and export the problems) and much more clarity about what they don't want than what they do.
Excellent consumerism, but hopeless for thinking about tradeoffs.
What will worry Farage is Reform got 36% in Caerphilly ie above their UK poll average of about 30% but still lost due to Labour tactical votes for Plaid.
It shows that Reform are not guaranteed a majority at the next general election or even most seats if anti Farage voters vote tactically for whichever party is most likely to beat Reform in their seat. That could be Labour, LD, Plaid, SNP or even Tory in Conservative held seats.
Farage can still beat Labour and the Tories for now given their relative unpopularity and Starmer's deep unpopularity and Badenoch's failure to make much impact with voters. If say Streeting or Burnham became Labour leader and Cleverly Conservative leader it would be a different ball game though.
Plaid will be pleased with the result of course but unionist parties still got the majority of votes in the by election so it was not a vote for Welsh independence, more an anti Reform vote
What will worry Farage is Reform got 36% in Caerphilly ie above their UK poll average of about 30% but still lost due to Labour tactical votes for Plaid.
It shows that Reform are not guaranteed a majority at the next general election or even most seats if anti Farage voters vote tactically for whichever party is most likely to beat Reform in their seat. That could be Labour, LD, Plaid, SNP or even Tory in Conservative held seats.
Farage can still beat Labour and the Tories for now given their relative unpopularity and Starmer's deep unpopularity and Badenoch's failure to make much impact with voters. If say Streeting or Burnham became Labour leader and Cleverly Conservative leader it would be a different ball game though.
Plaid will be pleased with the result of course but unionist parties still got the majority of votes in the by election so it was not a vote for Welsh independence, more an anti Reform vote
Comments
Civil-service and polling body canvassers are one of the few bastions of vaguely-befuddled niceness left.
WFH = runs at lunch and a healthy diet. At least my cycle commute burns a mars bar worth per day.
Losing weight is 90% diet, but exercise does help replaced the dopamine rush provided by sugar, so there's a second order effect.
Then you get ill or over-exert yourself, have 4 weeks out, and your graph says you’re back at square one again.
Ministry of Justice gets criminal conviction
Demonstrating an impressive commitment to understanding absolutely every aspect of the criminal justice system it oversees, the Ministry of Justice has this week got itself convicted of a crime.
In January a speed camera in Greater Manchester caught a Renault Trafic van registered to the MoJ blowing through a 50mph stretch of the M62 at 75mph.
Police sent their demand for the driver’s identity to an MoJ PO Box in Gwent, Wales, which had been identified as the address for the vehicle’s registered keeper.
After three reminders went unanswered the MoJ was sent a notice of intention to prosecute. That too was ignored, and when the case went before the Manchester City Magistrates’ court, the MoJ failed to appear or enter a plea.
In a closed door hearing, magistrate Mary Brough convicted the Ministry of failing to give information relating to the identification of the driver of a vehicle when required, reported the Standard.
The MoJ was also fined £1,000 and ordered to pay £120 in costs and a £400 victim surcharge.
Sounding like your typical chancer, a Ministry of Justice spokesperson said in a statement provided to RollOnFriday, “The notice was sent to the wrong address - an invoice PO Box managed by our contractor rather than the correct vehicle registration address - so it didn’t reach the right team".
The MoJ will now seek to overturn the embarrassing verdict. “As with any defendant in these circumstances, the case can be restarted by a statutory declaration and we are fixing the addressing issue to make sure it doesn’t happen again”, it said.
The MoJ said there was "no indication of deliberate inaction",
Finding itself in the invidious position of overseeing the organisation which gave it the conviction, the MoJ stated that while there was "no indication of deliberate inaction" on its part, there was equally "no suggestion the court process was flawed", either.
Despite everyone involved being absolutely blameless (apart from the white van man gassing it to Hull), the MoJ said it was, along with its contractor, "reviewing mail-handling processes to prevent similar issues in future".
https://www.rollonfriday.com/news-content/ministry-justice-gets-criminal-conviction
She sat on the path in the sun on a micro-mini camping stool. I put my trousers on (just out of the shower - down boy) and took a stool outside.
A very interesting chat - she has been doing it locally for 14 years, and apparently these days it is much easier to catch people at home.
The story here says both things, and hasn't checked the facts.
Obviously this represents a Risk. The only possible solution is an armed assault by police on the MoJ HQ in full Ninja gear with firearms.
Rishi Sunak only politician to see witness statement in China spy case
Statement from security adviser, viewed by then prime minister, did not describe China as enemy
Rishi Sunak was the only politician to see a witness statement by the deputy national security adviser at the centre of controversy about the collapse of a case against two British men accused of spying for China.
According to letters sent to the joint committee on the national security strategy, the statement from Matthew Collins in December 2023, which was seen by the then prime minister and his advisers, did not describe China as an enemy, another key element of the case.
The letters also set out that by this point, the start of the prosecution process, both police and prosecutors were told that Collins would not call China an enemy as this was not government policy.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2025/oct/24/rishi-sunak-only-politician-see-witness-statement-china-spy-case
In a five year (max) electoral cycle, the first up to two years are allowed for putting right everything the last lot got wrong, making sure everything is run brilliantly well, and starting action on the finely honed vision of the wonderful new lot. (July 2024-July 2026)
About two years before the next election end date, everyone starts being like PB is all the time and wondering about winners and losers next time (July 2027-July 2029 or election day if earlier).
Leaving 12 months for being a proper government in charge of its and the UK's destiny.
Even if this worked it would be a bit useless. At the moment it doesn't work at all. Of the many reasons for it, including the general sense of how unbrilliant it all is, is that there is almost no expectation that any particular party will last more than five years. The prospect of Reform victory doesn't change that picture much.
From that press release:
People living in left-behind areas were more likely to support Brexit than those living in prosperous areas. The gains of Brexit were perceived to be greater in areas of the country that had experienced economic decline. But within those areas, given people's preferences, we show that wealthier individuals were more likely to vote for Brexit, and poorer individuals were more likely to vote for Remain.
Which sort of fits the Red Wall stereotype. Also the Eastern Wall aspect of the Reform map. Kent and Essex aren't poor, but they are distinctly second-tier Home Counties.
A tricky tangle of problems to solve, especially since many of the things that might help economically (more tax for more public spending; becoming more like London/Manchester) are culturally taboo.
https://spacenews.com/landspace-begins-final-preparations-for-chinas-first-orbital-launch-and-landing-attempt/
A decade after Falcon 9 first demonstrated vertical landing of a first stage, China is having a go. Blue Origin had an attempt earlier this year, with their first flight of their New Glenn rocket.
Form the rest of the launch industry - not much.
From European Space - well, they've stopped firing people for advocating Themis. That's something.
Every YouGov poll ever?
When asked whether they would like loads of free stuff paid for by taxes on other people, 75% of Brits and 96% of Green voters said "yes"... 😉
It'd be laughed off not worried about without that.
..Drafts of a statement provided to DNSA included the term 'enemy' but he removed this term from the final draft as it did not reflect government policy."
Collins said he sent a final version of the draft to the prime minister at the time, Rishi Sunak, and his special advisers.
He said at this point, police were told he "could not call China an 'enemy' as this did not reflect government policy"...
I mean, I get it.
Starmer is pretty crap.
But the continual attempts to blame him for the previous government's policy blunders and controversies are getting a bit wearing.
WATO framing this as a Labour drubbing (which it is) but not a Plaid win. Again promoting Reform's 35% rather than the Plaid win. David Bull on now. Nice promotion of Andrew RT Davies at the moment.
But when he was maintaining a traffic camera an engineer was had his ladder pushed over when he was on it by outraged flag waggers who decided he was removing it.
Yesterday was proof candidate quality really can matter in by-elections but ultimately it was proof, despite some claims, that high turnout is very bad for Reform.
Meanwhile just like the last General Election and Runcorn Reform's position was over-stated in the polls - in this case sharply. That's something to keep an eye on.
Looking at the polls and local by-elections it seems Reform MAY have peaked - hence many journalists today protesting they have not. The would-be new elite do like to protect their 'narratives'. It also seems the polls and Local Bys are split on the Green / LD strength. Maybe some more London polls could provide the answer to that.
Overall - 'good' second places do not a landslide make.
Talking about what Reform have to do to break through after Caerphilly and Larkhall.
https://x.com/EdwardGLuce/status/1981657552636026948
"@barbourjohn 1 hour ago (edited)
@mattwardman This is not true.
You have the wrong heroes. ML King and Bishop Tutu are the ones who were used to destroy the American Republic and South Africa.
And the solidarity movement used to destroy Poland."
That's fairly straight down the line.
The video was of Rev Dan (Vicar of Chalfont St Giles - these are his personal thinking space) suggesting that "Christian Nationalism" is "cultural Christianity" not 'the Gospel' (ie he is looking more spiritually than materially, based on his - Dan's - suggestion that Christian Nationalism is an attempt to construct a Church ruled society in the here and now.) Dan's emphasis is on personal salvation as the basis.
I put a slightly different spin on the "cultural Christianity bit", suggesting that CN is actually modernist values imposed on the Bible, suggesting that the USA will require now its MLKs, Desmond Tutus and Jerzy Popiełuszkos to get them out of their hole.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rdGuE78Zauo&lc=UgwbP1eDnf7-5g4zTi14AaABAg
The biggest change was the fall in the Labour vote, closely followed by the rise in the Reform UK vote, more distantly followed by the rise in the Plaid Cymru vote and then the fall in the Tory vote. So, practically, Plaid winning is what matters most, but when it comes to prognostications about the future, Labour collapse, Reform rocketing up is arguably the bigger story.
That said, as TSE noted, perhaps the real story is the anti-Reform tactical voting…
It indicates that people were motivated to get out and vote one way or t'other, and bully for them, but what about those of us who see nothing good about either realistic option?!?
If I was faced with a choice between Reform and PC, I'd almost certainly be thinking 'fuck it, I shan't bother'. I didn't bother voting in last week's Surrey CC by-election - for the first time in my life - because the LDs were a shoe-in and the only realistic contender was Reform.
The fact that some are politically energised by something I find off-putting indicates an even deeper divide, I think.
Let's hope Sheffield Wednesday can bounce back after the inevitable relegation.
* Michael Crick's analysis.
Astounding.
A headteacher was accused of ‘racially profiling’ Axel Rudakubana as a ‘black boy with a knife.’ That shut down her ability to raise the risk he posed.
We need our institutions to be able to speak freely about difficult issues.
This shows the risk of imposing an Islamophobia definition on the public sector.
https://x.com/clairecoutinho/status/1981638272842408307?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
Because that’s what it is.
And i say that as the most milquetoast individual ever.
Yes, there might be better prospects in other parts of South Wales, but this was a seat where 56% voted Leave. Reform’s forward momentum has stalled, at the same time as a growing unease about the party’s loyalty to the UK and their deportation policies.
We’ve learned that centrist and left voters - including some Tories - will vote for whoever is most likely to beat Reform.
We’ve learned that the MLR polls should be taken with a pinch of salt, and that a Reform led government is not an inevitability in the way many of the media have started to suggest.
We’ve learned that Plaid Cymru will very likely lead the next Welsh government, and that Rhun ap Iorwerth will be the next First Leader.
According to Open Council Data they now have 27 councillors, including 3 recent defections from the Scottish Greens, which is slightly larger than the Havering Residents' Association
She told me that she had to pay just to verify who she was.
With digital ID that could be done in seconds and wipe out the costs.
Digital ID will save you time and money.
https://x.com/keir_starmer/status/1981618379850228183?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
Was it Ange?
https://x.com/thesundaysport/status/1981631810573394253?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
Or maybe the tiller is broken. Or there is no tiller.
As an electorate, that palpable feeling of lack of agency is what lies behind Brexit and so much of modern British life.
Such is life
I think Reform will poll more likely 25 than 35 and the best way for Farage to approach things is to team up with the Tories. You can’t have a party going from 5 MPs to a majority, it’s not British! It would make me feel uncomfortable
The 1911 act uses with regards to sketches and plans of prohibited places.
The 1989 act is about tightening up on documents. Surely this is the one they were prosecuted on?
IIRC many lawyers objected to the 1989 act on the grounds that it meant *any disclosure to anyone* not just “enemies”
@cnn.com
US inflation is back above 3%, the highest it's been since January
Where’s he going?
Josh Barabarinde was recently name-checked by Zach Polanski as from the same wing of the LDs as he formerly was, by which I assume that Barbarinde is the opposite of an Orange Booker.
But also less monomaniacal, preening, doom-laden, toxic, and insult-strewn.
On balance, it’s better he’s not here, from my perspective.
He put out a quite an interesting paper about prospects earlier in the summer.
Havering Residents Association +
Hornchurch Residents Association +
Upminster & Cranham Residents Association
There is also, in opposition, the Harold Wood Residents Association. There used to be an Independent Residents Association, who made Farage look like a wet centrist.
Havering Council is bonkers.
Absolutely less monomaniacal, preening, doom-laden, toxic, and insult-strewn.
On balance, it’s better
There’s just something ungainly and repellent about it.
It also makes opinion polling almost impossible, I’d have thought.
https://youtu.be/FCkagYixpuc?si=H3Su3g91vl2yo4rW
I’ll be pleased to see him return, he’s the only one who ever agrees with me
J. S. Bach - Toccata and Fugue in D minor on the glass harp
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gDm4IphrlYg&list=RDgDm4IphrlYg
Channel: https://www.youtube.com/@GlassDuo
I think it is a wonderful system - I advocate it for General Elections.
All of Bradford district in one big constituency, with seats won aligned with votes cast.
{Lord Trenchard mode engaged}
Independent of whom? God?
{Lord Trenchard mode disengaged}
Or is Oliver Cromwell staging a comeback
NEW THREAD
His made up name is Zack
I’m almost certain that he named himself after the cool kid in Saved By The Bell
One consequence is that there will never be another by-election. The next party stooge on the list will replace anyone who dies or resigns.
It's not a bad model for the way national politics seems to be going. Groups whose main focus is their local patch (goodies for us and export the problems) and much more clarity about what they don't want than what they do.
Excellent consumerism, but hopeless for thinking about tradeoffs.