I see Carole Codswallop is involved with a new media venture with a number of other former Guardian journalists and celebs contributors like Carole Voderman. I hope whoever is funding this has arranged a bulk discount on legal fees.
Reminds me of Brian Potter when he gets a girlfriend in Phoenix Nights.
How could security there be so rubbish.
French austerity cutbacks. Case was done with a portable angle grinder apparently and they reckon they'll just melt them down and get the jewels recut.
Llyr Powell has arrived and has been speaking to BBC Wales’ Teleri Glyn Jones, saying he has been subjected to "attacks" on his property and office during the campaign.
These comments seem to be tied in to a rather literalist interpretation of "heaven" and "hell" . The people writing, and maybe talking, in the original writings, and since, were not. To wit (AI, therefore "ish"):
The main levels of scriptural interpretation are literal, allegorical, moral, and anagogical. These "four senses" are commonly used in Christian exegesis, where the literal is the straightforward meaning, the allegorical finds symbolic meaning, the moral applies teachings to life, and the anagogical explores spiritual and heavenly significance.
BREAKING: Nancy Pelosi says local authorities may arrest federal agents if they break California law, and if they are convicted, President Trump cannot pardon them.
Civil war incoming.
It is not quite that clear cut, as it is possible for criminal cases to jump track from State to Federal, and the Supreme Court would be the ultimate decider on that.
A couple of Trump's criminal criminal lawyers tried that one.
BBC - It's a sign of how Plaid are feeling that they're willing for Rhun ap Iorwerth to be seen in front of cameras in the counting hall. He is the only party leader here.
@RhysWilliamsTV · 32m Reform still saying it’s “too close to call”
#Caerphilly #caerphillybyelection
There may be something in the Reform spin if it's true much of the vote counted is from the south of the consistency. The south is much more of a Cardiff suburb, where as the north is much more like the rest of the valley's. But it's probably just copium.
Indeed, the odds now probably just favour Plaid but remember in the Runcorn by election most commentators thought Labour had nicked it until the declaration where Reform won by just 6 votes
Notwithstanding the £25k just pumped down the legal drain by the RefUK Councillor who challenged the result by drawing of lots.
Apart from anything else, the Reform candidate for Caerphilly looks like an absolute gimp.
What's a gimp in English?
I'm currently gradually listening to my first couple of (free - would not pay) "modern surreal fantasy" audiobooks, which Youtube threw at me.
What I find fascinating is that it is precisely Usonian "social hierarchy" characterisations/society (bullies, jocks, nerds, mean girls, materialism, rich men dominating, women being their bits of fluff, wealth based on family) read straight into a fantasy creatures (vampires, ghouls, monsters, werewolves) setting.
PC 15,961 (47.38%) Ref 12,113 (35.96%) Lab 3,713 (11.02%) Con 690 (2.05%) Green 516 (1.53%) LD 497 (1.48%) Gwlad 117 (0.35%) UKIP 79 (0.23%)
Total 33,686
If this result was replicated next May in other Welsh Labour heartland seats then they are facing the same kind of political earthquake that Scottish Labour faced in the 2015 GE and in the 2016 Holyrood election. Gordon Brown's vision for devolution was always about making sure that who ever was in power at Westminster there would always be a solid Labour fiefdom in charge in Scotland and Wales what ever their failings in the devolved governments there.
He stupidly never then envisaged that the other two nationalist centre left parties would ever be in a position to fill Labour's boots and win at Holyrood in Scotland or the in the Senedd in Wales and relegating Labour to the Opposition benches. It would be truely ironic if Welsh Labour finally lose power in Wales next May and less than two years after the first Labour government were back in power at Westminster since 2010.
And while the Conservatives are also facing a very difficult election with the rise of Reform in Scotland and Wales, its all the more frustrating because they have never been in power in either devolved government and really did prove to be an effective main Opposition party at Holyrood since 2016 despite the very weak set up in the Holyrood Parliament by Labour which made it so much harder for the Opposition to hold the governing party to account, something that the SNP has exploited to great effect thanks to Tony Blair and Gordon Brown's poor management when delivering devolution.
I am beginning to get the sense that while the majority of the public will not accept immigration at 600k per year, neither will they accept the outright racism we're seeing mainstreamed on the political right.
Mariella Frostrup, "I just don't know when we started dehumanising people to the extent that we do now"
>Huge clap<
*In response to Nadine Dorries's long rant on leaving the ECHR and using the Royal Navy to address Farage's Brexit Small Boats Arrivals*
"I find it really shocking"
"Imagine if nobody wanted to come here then we'd really be depressed by Britain as a nation"
"Of course it is an issue. But we've decreased our budget for international development"
"We have a completely shambolic asylum system"
"You talk about people coming here illegally, but what are the legal routes?"
"We still don't have proper legal routes"
Nadine Dorries, "We do"
Mariella Frostrup, "Explain. I'm a woman in Congo. I'm one of the 80,000 women who has been raped as a result of the conflict going on there. I need to escape. My family has been wiped out. What's my legal way of applying to join my sister who is in the UK?"
*Nadine Dorries goes silent*
"It is impossible, our system is broken"
"The way we talk about people trying to come here, and the way we completely ignore the dilemmas that they face. And the fact that we have been instrumental in a lot of those conflicts"
"What happened to Afghanistan? When we were determined that people from Afghanistan could come here because of the way they supported us during that war"
"And now we're talking about them as if they're rubbish on the street"
"I think it's a shame we're allowing Reform UK to set the tone and the agenda and the way we talk about illegal immigrants"
Well done PC . Thank heavens we won’t have to put up with the usual media mass fellation of Farage and Reform . Thoughts and prayers for Chris Mason who must be devastated this morning !
The other time the US elected some bloke of the moving picture box who was thought not to be intelligent enough for the gig....but actually vastly superior to all recent and current options.
Trump says trade negotiations with Canada 'terminated' over tariffs advert
It is, of course, worth noting that this is not an advert from the Canadian Government, but from the Province of Ontario.
The Premier of the Province is Doug Ford (yes, Rob Ford's brother), and he's about as bona fide a conservative as they come.
This bit is kind of hilarious, too.
...In a post on X, the Ronald Reagan Foundation said that the Ontario government had used "selective audio and video" of the former US president's remarks on tariffs. "The Government of Ontario did not seek nor receive permission to use and edit the remarks," the statement added. The foundation said the advert "misrepresents" the former president's address, without specifying why...
Reagan's views were pretty self evident. "The Ronald Reagan Foundation" doesn't seem to share them.
He was prepared to use them on occasion, but he would have been diametrically opposed to the Trump tariff love.
Just to be clear: ..Kemi Badenoch’s spokesperson said on Wednesday that Lam’s comments were “broadly in line” with party policy, which was interpreted by some as an endorsement and others as a gentle rebuke...
Well done PC . Thank heavens we won’t have to put up with the usual media mass fellation of Farage and Reform . Thoughts and prayers for Chris Mason who must be devastated this morning !
Although, according to the Mail:
- Labour was trounced (fair) - PC “narrowly beat” Reform (I’d put it down as a solid if unspectacular margin - but certainly better than “narrowly”)
I'm pleased to wake up to learn I made a few quid betting on Plaid.
They were the clear main opponent to Reform who continue to struggle to get out of the 30-35% range, That makes them vulnerable to tactical voting, which voters do more readily in a by-election. They still looks good for a GE though.
Well done PC . Thank heavens we won’t have to put up with the usual media mass fellation of Farage and Reform . Thoughts and prayers for Chris Mason who must be devastated this morning !
Clearly there is such a thing as a personal vote and it is good that voters have given a chance to someone who has stood by the seat for over 40 years. That should not be under-estimated.
But a VERY BAD night for polling however it is dressed up. This can give little confidence that polling is anything more that electioneering in other ways. My guess would be that if PC had just picked a usual candidate then Reform would have come closer or even won: there would not have been as high a turn out.
Now I don't know PC like the other parties but if it is anything like Ref, Con, LD or Lab then the only reason the successful candidate was allowed to stand was because the party nationally thought the seat was a no hoper.
It will be fun to see that Nigel won't have time to do any media interviews today !!! But it does look as if some natural Labour supporters thought Ref was a vote too far, being a home for de-selected Tories.
There is more electoral turmoil to come but on this as so many things Mrs T was right. "When all else fails voters do the right thing".
Well done PC . Thank heavens we won’t have to put up with the usual media mass fellation of Farage and Reform . Thoughts and prayers for Chris Mason who must be devastated this morning !
Although, according to the Mail:
- Labour was trounced (fair) - PC “narrowly beat” Reform (I’d put it down as a solid if unspectacular margin - but certainly better than “narrowly”)
This was comfortable, not close. I seem the remember the Mail thought a win of 6 in Runcorn was decisive !
Well done PC . Thank heavens we won’t have to put up with the usual media mass fellation of Farage and Reform . Thoughts and prayers for Chris Mason who must be devastated this morning !
Clearly there is such a thing as a personal vote and it is good that voters have given a chance to someone who has stood by the seat for over 40 years. That should not be under-estimated.
But a VERY BAD night for polling however it is dressed up. This can give little confidence that polling is anything more that electioneering in other ways. My guess would be that if PC had just picked a usual candidate then Reform would have come closer or even won: there would not have been as high a turn out.
Now I don't know PC like the other parties but if it is anything like Ref, Con, LD or Lab then the only reason the successful candidate was allowed to stand was because the party nationally thought the seat was a no hoper.
It will be fun to see that Nigel won't have time to do any media interviews today !!! But it does look as if some natural Labour supporters thought Ref was a vote too far, being a home for de-selected Tories.
There is more electoral turmoil to come but on this as so many things Mrs T was right. "When all else fails voters do the right thing".
I hope you’re right ! The polling issue seems to be more evident with constituency polling but I think there’s going to be a bigger nationwide issue at the next GE as to how much tactical voting takes place . The polling for Caerphilly might have missed previous non-voters who came out to stop Reform .
Well done PC . Thank heavens we won’t have to put up with the usual media mass fellation of Farage and Reform . Thoughts and prayers for Chris Mason who must be devastated this morning !
The shape of things to come. Hopefully the UK will follow the French and join forces to make sure the fascists lose. Maybe they've reached their high water mark and now go away, Why would any self respecting constituency want to be represented by one of those? By all accounts they threw the kitchen sink at this and lost decisively
Just to be clear: ..Kemi Badenoch’s spokesperson said on Wednesday that Lam’s comments were “broadly in line” with party policy, which was interpreted by some as an endorsement and others as a gentle rebuke...
Yes I'd forgotten about Katie. Both fascist Parties beaten with the Tories losing their deposit.
That's a pretty solid win for Plaid. The left wing appears to have some life in it, even if Labour don't.
Does suggest Reform have a ceiling, and their stellar polling numbers are essentially a function of everyone else feeling a bit meh.
Reform does better in polling because the other parties natural supporters have more don’t knows . What Caerphilly might highlight is the less inclined don’t knows came out to stop Reform.
Llyr Powell has arrived and has been speaking to BBC Wales’ Teleri Glyn Jones, saying he has been subjected to "attacks" on his property and office during the campaign.
Well done PC . Thank heavens we won’t have to put up with the usual media mass fellation of Farage and Reform . Thoughts and prayers for Chris Mason who must be devastated this morning !
Although, according to the Mail:
- Labour was trounced (fair) - PC “narrowly beat” Reform (I’d put it down as a solid if unspectacular margin - but certainly better than “narrowly”)
I feel for the Mail. They've been buffing up their 'Hurrah for The Blackshirts' for weeks now
Well done to Foxy and others who took the Plaid bet, think it was around 15/8 at the time
My thoughts were for strong Tactical Voting for Plaid, based on nothing more than gut. Voters may be "socially conservative" but they are actually quite left wing in these former Labour heartlands. Give them a tolerable left wing alternative and they will turn out.
I thought also a Nathan Gill effect too. Voters don't like traitors and Farage's attempts to handwave the issue away are not credible.
That's a pretty solid win for Plaid. The left wing appears to have some life in it, even if Labour don't.
Does suggest Reform have a ceiling, and their stellar polling numbers are essentially a function of everyone else feeling a bit meh.
Reform does better in polling because the other parties natural supporters have more don’t knows . What Caerphilly might highlight is the less inclined don’t knows came out to stop Reform.
Yep.
And tactical voting across the country could easily see Reform significantly underperform what polling would expect them to achieve unless they can rise further to reach a tipping point at which tactical voting won't be enough.
Not close in the end. Look at the Labour and Tory scores.....dockerside hooker treatment.
3000 votes still pretty close.
Clearly massive Labour tactical voting for Plaid, most Tory voters went Reform and a few Labour voters did though but most Labour voters went Plaid
Yes. This must be seen as the 'right' result, because clearly there's still a far bigger left wing (soft and hard) vote there than a right wing one. PC had even more votes they could have squeezed from Labour and a few from the other parties. Reform sucked up the Tory vote very efficiently and there was really little they could have done.
It's not the result that I had hoped for, but it shows there's still a long way for Reform to go. The only real solution is to win people over to the right of politics, by making convincing arguments.
Not close in the end. Look at the Labour and Tory scores.....dockerside hooker treatment.
3000 votes still pretty close.
Clearly massive Labour tactical voting for Plaid, most Tory voters went Reform and a few Labour voters did though but most Labour voters went Plaid
Delighted and no - it's not close
I expect a Plaid FM next May and confidence and supply minority government
No great outcomes for UK
There is no great outcome that is possible - remember we don't have any money.
Now it's probably better for the UK as a whole for Reform to win Wales as a whole and then screw up delivery but that doesn't exactly do Wales any good so it may as well be Plaid.
Well done to Foxy and others who took the Plaid bet, think it was around 15/8 at the time
My thoughts were for strong Tactical Voting for Plaid, based on nothing more than gut. Voters may be "socially conservative" but they are actually quite left wing in these former Labour heartlands. Give them a tolerable left wing alternative and they will turn out.
I thought also a Nathan Gill effect too. Voters don't like traitors and Farage's attempts to handwave the issue away are not credible.
I got odds boost to 2/1, but only a fiver.
Nathan Gill was a footnote in the news even on the day of his plea. I don't believe that was decisive.
The PB faithful claiming earlier a 3500 majority is a marginal win are laughable. A win is a win, see Runcorn. I note the solid three figure vote for the Tories passed them by, so even by adding every Tory vote, Plaid coast home.
Llyr Powell has arrived and has been speaking to BBC Wales’ Teleri Glyn Jones, saying he has been subjected to "attacks" on his property and office during the campaign.
Farage seems happy though.
I seem to remember Anna Soubry had some thoughts about this …
Chris Mason's take on the result is that it's a terrible result for Labour and the Conservatives.
Doesn't he know how by-elections work?
Record breaking ones work like this.
John Curtice reckons it's the worst result for Lab in a Welsh By Election ever.
If I'd been Labour, Lib Dem or Green, I'd have voted Plaid to put Farage in his box.
The Labour story is they lost their seat comprehensively An even bigger story is that despite expectations, Reform are beatable in Senedd elections. I wonder if that opens up a media backlash against Plaid. The unopened bottle of GeeBeebies Champagne is safely back in the fridge.
Llyr Powell has arrived and has been speaking to BBC Wales’ Teleri Glyn Jones, saying he has been subjected to "attacks" on his property and office during the campaign.
Grievance is all these clowns have. Happy to see their bubble burst for the time being.
I am beginning to get the sense that while the majority of the public will not accept immigration at 600k per year, neither will they accept the outright racism we're seeing mainstreamed on the political right.
Mariella Frostrup, "I just don't know when we started dehumanising people to the extent that we do now"
>Huge clap<
*In response to Nadine Dorries's long rant on leaving the ECHR and using the Royal Navy to address Farage's Brexit Small Boats Arrivals*
"I find it really shocking"
"Imagine if nobody wanted to come here then we'd really be depressed by Britain as a nation"
"Of course it is an issue. But we've decreased our budget for international development"
"We have a completely shambolic asylum system"
"You talk about people coming here illegally, but what are the legal routes?"
"We still don't have proper legal routes"
Nadine Dorries, "We do"
Mariella Frostrup, "Explain. I'm a woman in Congo. I'm one of the 80,000 women who has been raped as a result of the conflict going on there. I need to escape. My family has been wiped out. What's my legal way of applying to join my sister who is in the UK?"
*Nadine Dorries goes silent*
"It is impossible, our system is broken"
"The way we talk about people trying to come here, and the way we completely ignore the dilemmas that they face. And the fact that we have been instrumental in a lot of those conflicts"
"What happened to Afghanistan? When we were determined that people from Afghanistan could come here because of the way they supported us during that war"
"And now we're talking about them as if they're rubbish on the street"
"I think it's a shame we're allowing Reform UK to set the tone and the agenda and the way we talk about illegal immigrants"
Have you seen the clip? Its beautiful. Dorries absolutely taken apart with facts. The Tories are going to find out what happens when you follow fukers down a racist rabbit hole only to find that people aren't that racist after all.
Well done to Foxy and others who took the Plaid bet, think it was around 15/8 at the time
My thoughts were for strong Tactical Voting for Plaid, based on nothing more than gut. Voters may be "socially conservative" but they are actually quite left wing in these former Labour heartlands. Give them a tolerable left wing alternative and they will turn out.
I thought also a Nathan Gill effect too. Voters don't like traitors and Farage's attempts to handwave the issue away are not credible.
I got odds boost to 2/1, but only a fiver.
Nathan Gill was a footnote in the news even on the day of his plea. I don't believe that was decisive.
The PB faithful claiming earlier a 3500 majority is a marginal win are laughable. A win is a win, see Runcorn. I note the solid three figure vote for the Tories passed them by, so even by adding every Tory vote, Plaid coast home.
I am sure that your local knowledge is correct.
The Nathan Gill affair stinks, and Farage's lame handwaving away of Russian links to his party is not to be ignored.
To get the highest ever turnout in a seat during a by-election is also remarkable. To win 47% to 36% is clearly decisive and the takeaway is that voters really are prepared to turn out to see off Reform….bet accordingly.
I am beginning to get the sense that while the majority of the public will not accept immigration at 600k per year, neither will they accept the outright racism we're seeing mainstreamed on the political right.
Mariella Frostrup, "I just don't know when we started dehumanising people to the extent that we do now"
>Huge clap<
*In response to Nadine Dorries's long rant on leaving the ECHR and using the Royal Navy to address Farage's Brexit Small Boats Arrivals*
"I find it really shocking"
"Imagine if nobody wanted to come here then we'd really be depressed by Britain as a nation"
"Of course it is an issue. But we've decreased our budget for international development"
"We have a completely shambolic asylum system"
"You talk about people coming here illegally, but what are the legal routes?"
"We still don't have proper legal routes"
Nadine Dorries, "We do"
Mariella Frostrup, "Explain. I'm a woman in Congo. I'm one of the 80,000 women who has been raped as a result of the conflict going on there. I need to escape. My family has been wiped out. What's my legal way of applying to join my sister who is in the UK?"
*Nadine Dorries goes silent*
"It is impossible, our system is broken"
"The way we talk about people trying to come here, and the way we completely ignore the dilemmas that they face. And the fact that we have been instrumental in a lot of those conflicts"
"What happened to Afghanistan? When we were determined that people from Afghanistan could come here because of the way they supported us during that war"
"And now we're talking about them as if they're rubbish on the street"
"I think it's a shame we're allowing Reform UK to set the tone and the agenda and the way we talk about illegal immigrants"
Have you seen the clip? Its beautiful. Dorries absolutely taken apart with facts. The Tories are going to find out what happens when you follow fukers down a racist rabbit hole only to find that people aren't that racist after all.
Labour should take notice, and of the similar response that Polanski got a fortnight ago, but they won't.
I am beginning to get the sense that while the majority of the public will not accept immigration at 600k per year, neither will they accept the outright racism we're seeing mainstreamed on the political right.
Mariella Frostrup, "I just don't know when we started dehumanising people to the extent that we do now"
>Huge clap<
*In response to Nadine Dorries's long rant on leaving the ECHR and using the Royal Navy to address Farage's Brexit Small Boats Arrivals*
"I find it really shocking"
"Imagine if nobody wanted to come here then we'd really be depressed by Britain as a nation"
"Of course it is an issue. But we've decreased our budget for international development"
"We have a completely shambolic asylum system"
"You talk about people coming here illegally, but what are the legal routes?"
"We still don't have proper legal routes"
Nadine Dorries, "We do"
Mariella Frostrup, "Explain. I'm a woman in Congo. I'm one of the 80,000 women who has been raped as a result of the conflict going on there. I need to escape. My family has been wiped out. What's my legal way of applying to join my sister who is in the UK?"
*Nadine Dorries goes silent*
"It is impossible, our system is broken"
"The way we talk about people trying to come here, and the way we completely ignore the dilemmas that they face. And the fact that we have been instrumental in a lot of those conflicts"
"What happened to Afghanistan? When we were determined that people from Afghanistan could come here because of the way they supported us during that war"
"And now we're talking about them as if they're rubbish on the street"
"I think it's a shame we're allowing Reform UK to set the tone and the agenda and the way we talk about illegal immigrants"
I am beginning to get the sense that while the majority of the public will not accept immigration at 600k per year, neither will they accept the outright racism we're seeing mainstreamed on the political right.
Mariella Frostrup, "I just don't know when we started dehumanising people to the extent that we do now"
>Huge clap<
*In response to Nadine Dorries's long rant on leaving the ECHR and using the Royal Navy to address Farage's Brexit Small Boats Arrivals*
"I find it really shocking"
"Imagine if nobody wanted to come here then we'd really be depressed by Britain as a nation"
"Of course it is an issue. But we've decreased our budget for international development"
"We have a completely shambolic asylum system"
"You talk about people coming here illegally, but what are the legal routes?"
"We still don't have proper legal routes"
Nadine Dorries, "We do"
Mariella Frostrup, "Explain. I'm a woman in Congo. I'm one of the 80,000 women who has been raped as a result of the conflict going on there. I need to escape. My family has been wiped out. What's my legal way of applying to join my sister who is in the UK?"
*Nadine Dorries goes silent*
"It is impossible, our system is broken"
"The way we talk about people trying to come here, and the way we completely ignore the dilemmas that they face. And the fact that we have been instrumental in a lot of those conflicts"
"What happened to Afghanistan? When we were determined that people from Afghanistan could come here because of the way they supported us during that war"
"And now we're talking about them as if they're rubbish on the street"
"I think it's a shame we're allowing Reform UK to set the tone and the agenda and the way we talk about illegal immigrants"
Question time audience is not representative of the U.K. electorate. For a start anyone there is usually politically engaged. Secondly the audience is selected for balance by the production team from those who apply to be on. There will therefore be a substantial pro immigration and anti reform chunk, I.e. all those supporters of other parties. The audience very often features party members (no reason they shouldn’t be there, of course).
Thank fuck Reform was stopped. Hopefully this demonstrates there is a majority of decent people in this country who can organise themselves to put Farage and his dishonest, divisive rhetoric back in his Rothmans-stained box.
Well done to Foxy and others who took the Plaid bet, think it was around 15/8 at the time
My thoughts were for strong Tactical Voting for Plaid, based on nothing more than gut. Voters may be "socially conservative" but they are actually quite left wing in these former Labour heartlands. Give them a tolerable left wing alternative and they will turn out.
I thought also a Nathan Gill effect too. Voters don't like traitors and Farage's attempts to handwave the issue away are not credible.
I got odds boost to 2/1, but only a fiver.
Nathan Gill was a footnote in the news even on the day of his plea. I don't believe that was decisive.
The PB faithful claiming earlier a 3500 majority is a marginal win are laughable. A win is a win, see Runcorn. I note the solid three figure vote for the Tories passed them by, so even by adding every Tory vote, Plaid coast home.
I am sure that your local knowledge is correct.
The Nathan Gill affair stinks, and Farage's lame handwaving away of Russian links to his party is not to be ignored.
The man was arrested, tried and convicted was he not?
A real 'affair' that 'stinks' is the Starmer Governments' position concerning the PRC - that is actually a live national security threat.
I am beginning to get the sense that while the majority of the public will not accept immigration at 600k per year, neither will they accept the outright racism we're seeing mainstreamed on the political right.
It’s neither British nor cricket. We don’t do that sort of thing here.
Llyr Powell has arrived and has been speaking to BBC Wales’ Teleri Glyn Jones, saying he has been subjected to "attacks" on his property and office during the campaign.
Farage seems happy though.
I seem to remember Anna Soubry had some thoughts about this …
I missed the Tommy Cooper statue in the background - just like that.
I think we see two effects in Caerphilly, an anti-Labour vote and an anti-Reform vote. In Wales PC is the obvious benificiary, but in England it is less obvious.
In Lib Dem, Green and Independent held seats the alternative is clear, but in Labour held constituencies in England what is going to happen?
I think we may well see anti-reform tactical voting in more marginal benefiting Labour to a degree, while hammering the Labour vote in seats where there is no perceived Reform threat.
Well done to Foxy and others who took the Plaid bet, think it was around 15/8 at the time
My thoughts were for strong Tactical Voting for Plaid, based on nothing more than gut. Voters may be "socially conservative" but they are actually quite left wing in these former Labour heartlands. Give them a tolerable left wing alternative and they will turn out.
I thought also a Nathan Gill effect too. Voters don't like traitors and Farage's attempts to handwave the issue away are not credible.
I got odds boost to 2/1, but only a fiver.
Nathan Gill was a footnote in the news even on the day of his plea. I don't believe that was decisive.
The PB faithful claiming earlier a 3500 majority is a marginal win are laughable. A win is a win, see Runcorn. I note the solid three figure vote for the Tories passed them by, so even by adding every Tory vote, Plaid coast home.
I am sure that your local knowledge is correct.
The Nathan Gill affair stinks, and Farage's lame handwaving away of Russian links to his party is not to be ignored.
It is incredible how the Farage compliant media have largely ignored Gill and his two henchmen.
Something that has cheered me recently is the backlash against future Tory PM, Katie Lam, not least on here.
To get the highest ever turnout in a seat during a by-election is also remarkable. To win 47% to 36% is clearly decisive and the takeaway is that voters really are prepared to turn out to see off Reform….bet accordingly.
That works well in Scotland, Wales and anywhere the Lib Dems are relevant. The much harder questions are about what happens when Labour are the only plausible vehicle to stop Reform? Or the Conservatives?
As things stand, there are an awful lot of seats in the first category and there may even be some in the second.
Not close in the end. Look at the Labour and Tory scores.....dockerside hooker treatment.
3000 votes still pretty close.
Clearly massive Labour tactical voting for Plaid, most Tory voters went Reform and a few Labour voters did though but most Labour voters went Plaid
Yes. This must be seen as the 'right' result, because clearly there's still a far bigger left wing (soft and hard) vote there than a right wing one. PC had even more votes they could have squeezed from Labour and a few from the other parties. Reform sucked up the Tory vote very efficiently and there was really little they could have done.
It's not the result that I had hoped for, but it shows there's still a long way for Reform to go. The only real solution is to win people over to the right of politics, by making convincing arguments.
Agreed (though as a leftie I don't want people to be convinced by those arguments).
If this is one tiny nail in the coffin of the paper thin populist simplistic solutions to our problems, whether from the right or the left, then that's a good thing.
However, it's not just on the right that there is a lack of convincing arguments. Much as I like Polanski's presence on the political stage, for example, he stills speaks economic illiteracy, just as Farage does.
Well done to Foxy and others who took the Plaid bet, think it was around 15/8 at the time
My thoughts were for strong Tactical Voting for Plaid, based on nothing more than gut. Voters may be "socially conservative" but they are actually quite left wing in these former Labour heartlands. Give them a tolerable left wing alternative and they will turn out.
I thought also a Nathan Gill effect too. Voters don't like traitors and Farage's attempts to handwave the issue away are not credible.
I got odds boost to 2/1, but only a fiver.
Nathan Gill was a footnote in the news even on the day of his plea. I don't believe that was decisive.
The PB faithful claiming earlier a 3500 majority is a marginal win are laughable. A win is a win, see Runcorn. I note the solid three figure vote for the Tories passed them by, so even by adding every Tory vote, Plaid coast home.
At 3.32 I posted - delighted and not even close
I expect many conservatives voted Plaid to keep out both labour and reform
Well done to Foxy and others who took the Plaid bet, think it was around 15/8 at the time
My thoughts were for strong Tactical Voting for Plaid, based on nothing more than gut. Voters may be "socially conservative" but they are actually quite left wing in these former Labour heartlands. Give them a tolerable left wing alternative and they will turn out.
I thought also a Nathan Gill effect too. Voters don't like traitors and Farage's attempts to handwave the issue away are not credible.
I got odds boost to 2/1, but only a fiver.
Nathan Gill was a footnote in the news even on the day of his plea. I don't believe that was decisive.
The PB faithful claiming earlier a 3500 majority is a marginal win are laughable. A win is a win, see Runcorn. I note the solid three figure vote for the Tories passed them by, so even by adding every Tory vote, Plaid coast home.
I am sure that your local knowledge is correct.
The Nathan Gill affair stinks, and Farage's lame handwaving away of Russian links to his party is not to be ignored.
The man was arrested, tried and convicted was he not?
A real 'affair' that 'stinks' is the Starmer Governments' position concerning the PRC - that is actually a live national security threat.
Yes he was. For what is - in my mind at least - treason.
Being convicted of something doesn't absolve someone. Quite the opposite.
I think we see two effects in Caerphilly, an anti-Labour vote and an anti-Reform vote. In Wales PC is the obvious benificiary, but in England it is less obvious.
In Lib Dem, Green and Independent held seats the alternative is clear, but in Labour held constituencies in England what is going to happen?
I think we may well see anti-reform tactical voting in more marginal benefiting Labour to a degree, while hammering the Labour vote in seats where there is no perceived Reform threat.
We may well be in Greens take Bootle territory.
Completely agree with this, though I am less hopeful that in a direct Reform-Labour fight the tactical voting will be against Reform. I can see plenty of people rejecting Reform's populist racism, but I can also see plenty of people looking at Labour and thinking 'no f*ING way' to another term.
To get the highest ever turnout in a seat during a by-election is also remarkable. To win 47% to 36% is clearly decisive and the takeaway is that voters really are prepared to turn out to see off Reform….bet accordingly.
That works well in Scotland, Wales and anywhere the Lib Dems are relevant. The much harder questions are about what happens when Labour are the only plausible vehicle to stop Reform? Or the Conservatives?
As things stand, there are an awful lot of seats in the first category and there may even be some in the second.
Looking at the Glastonbury result, the Tories and RefUK cancelled each other out and the Lib Dems win comfortably. That is a trend that gives the Lib Dems the chance of winning many more seats on only a marginally higher vote. That could be a very good bet indeed.
I am beginning to get the sense that while the majority of the public will not accept immigration at 600k per year, neither will they accept the outright racism we're seeing mainstreamed on the political right.
Mariella Frostrup, "I just don't know when we started dehumanising people to the extent that we do now"
>Huge clap<
*In response to Nadine Dorries's long rant on leaving the ECHR and using the Royal Navy to address Farage's Brexit Small Boats Arrivals*
"I find it really shocking"
"Imagine if nobody wanted to come here then we'd really be depressed by Britain as a nation"
"Of course it is an issue. But we've decreased our budget for international development"
"We have a completely shambolic asylum system"
"You talk about people coming here illegally, but what are the legal routes?"
"We still don't have proper legal routes"
Nadine Dorries, "We do"
Mariella Frostrup, "Explain. I'm a woman in Congo. I'm one of the 80,000 women who has been raped as a result of the conflict going on there. I need to escape. My family has been wiped out. What's my legal way of applying to join my sister who is in the UK?"
*Nadine Dorries goes silent*
"It is impossible, our system is broken"
"The way we talk about people trying to come here, and the way we completely ignore the dilemmas that they face. And the fact that we have been instrumental in a lot of those conflicts"
"What happened to Afghanistan? When we were determined that people from Afghanistan could come here because of the way they supported us during that war"
"And now we're talking about them as if they're rubbish on the street"
"I think it's a shame we're allowing Reform UK to set the tone and the agenda and the way we talk about illegal immigrants"
Have you seen the clip? Its beautiful. Dorries absolutely taken apart with facts. The Tories are going to find out what happens when you follow fukers down a racist rabbit hole only to find that people aren't that racist after all.
Labour should take notice, and of the similar response that Polanski got a fortnight ago, but they won't.
So long as the right, be that Farage Reform or Jenrick Conservatives are kept out of office it wouldn't bother me too much if Labour withered and died. The last fifteen months have taught us that the current iteration have no social democratic credentials whatsoever let alone an ideology. Outbidding Jenrick and Farage is not a blueprint for Government.
Well done to Foxy and others who took the Plaid bet, think it was around 15/8 at the time
My thoughts were for strong Tactical Voting for Plaid, based on nothing more than gut. Voters may be "socially conservative" but they are actually quite left wing in these former Labour heartlands. Give them a tolerable left wing alternative and they will turn out.
I thought also a Nathan Gill effect too. Voters don't like traitors and Farage's attempts to handwave the issue away are not credible.
I got odds boost to 2/1, but only a fiver.
Nathan Gill was a footnote in the news even on the day of his plea. I don't believe that was decisive.
The PB faithful claiming earlier a 3500 majority is a marginal win are laughable. A win is a win, see Runcorn. I note the solid three figure vote for the Tories passed them by, so even by adding every Tory vote, Plaid coast home.
At 3.32 I posted - delighted and not even close
I expect many conservatives voted Plaid to keep out both labour and reform
I think the idea that all Tory voters are switching to reform is for the birds. In a lot of constituencies there will be Tory voters who find Reform racist and they are people who could easily be persuaded to tactically vote for the could beat Reform candidate.
The issue in a lot of constituencies especially outside a By-election will be correctly working out which candidate is the one best placed to beat Reform..
Comments
Apparently it's not in the UK
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.247979233
Louvre thieves’ slow-motion getaway using furniture lift was caught on video
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/oct/23/louvre-thieves-slow-motion-getaway-caught-on-video
Reminds me of Brian Potter when he gets a girlfriend in Phoenix Nights.
Case was done with a portable angle grinder apparently and they reckon they'll just melt them down and get the jewels recut.
The main levels of scriptural interpretation are literal, allegorical, moral, and anagogical. These "four senses" are commonly used in Christian exegesis, where the literal is the straightforward meaning, the allegorical finds symbolic meaning, the moral applies teachings to life, and the anagogical explores spiritual and heavenly significance.
I don’t know how you do it.
A couple of Trump's criminal criminal lawyers tried that one.
The result appears to be imminent.
Can't beat the classics like learning lessons. Strangely nobody ever seems to.
➡️ RFM: 12,113 (+11,618)
🔴 LAB: 3,713 (−9,576)
🔵 CON: 690 (−4,323)
🟢 GRN: 516 (NEW)
🟠 LDM: 497 (−290)
⚪ GWLAD: 117 (NEW)
🟣 UKIP: 79 (NEW)
Not close in the end. Look at the Labour and Tory scores.....dockerside hooker treatment.
Ref 12,113 (35.96%)
Lab 3,713 (11.02%)
Con 690 (2.05%)
Green 516 (1.53%)
LD 497 (1.48%)
Gwlad 117 (0.35%)
UKIP 79 (0.23%)
Total 33,686
Clearly massive Labour tactical voting for Plaid, most Tory voters went Reform and a few Labour voters did though but most Labour voters went Plaid
The Plaid candidate has stood time and time again in the constituency at elections for Westminster and Cardiff Bay since 1983.
I expect a Plaid FM next May and confidence and supply minority government
What I find fascinating is that it is precisely Usonian "social hierarchy" characterisations/society (bullies, jocks, nerds, mean girls, materialism, rich men dominating, women being their bits of fluff, wealth based on family) read straight into a fantasy creatures (vampires, ghouls, monsters, werewolves) setting.
He stupidly never then envisaged that the other two nationalist centre left parties would ever be in a position to fill Labour's boots and win at Holyrood in Scotland or the in the Senedd in Wales and relegating Labour to the Opposition benches. It would be truely ironic if Welsh Labour finally lose power in Wales next May and less than two years after the first Labour government were back in power at Westminster since 2010.
And while the Conservatives are also facing a very difficult election with the rise of Reform in Scotland and Wales, its all the more frustrating because they have never been in power in either devolved government and really did prove to be an effective main Opposition party at Holyrood since 2016 despite the very weak set up in the Holyrood Parliament by Labour which made it so much harder for the Opposition to hold the governing party to account, something that the SNP has exploited to great effect thanks to Tony Blair and Gordon Brown's poor management when delivering devolution.
Mariella Frostrup, "I just don't know when we started dehumanising people to the extent that we do now"
>Huge clap<
*In response to Nadine Dorries's long rant on leaving the ECHR and using the Royal Navy to address Farage's Brexit Small Boats Arrivals*
"I find it really shocking"
"Imagine if nobody wanted to come here then we'd really be depressed by Britain as a nation"
"Of course it is an issue. But we've decreased our budget for international development"
"We have a completely shambolic asylum system"
"You talk about people coming here illegally, but what are the legal routes?"
"We still don't have proper legal routes"
Nadine Dorries, "We do"
Mariella Frostrup, "Explain. I'm a woman in Congo. I'm one of the 80,000 women who has been raped as a result of the conflict going on there. I need to escape. My family has been wiped out. What's my legal way of applying to join my sister who is in the UK?"
*Nadine Dorries goes silent*
"It is impossible, our system is broken"
"The way we talk about people trying to come here, and the way we completely ignore the dilemmas that they face. And the fact that we have been instrumental in a lot of those conflicts"
"What happened to Afghanistan? When we were determined that people from Afghanistan could come here because of the way they supported us during that war"
"And now we're talking about them as if they're rubbish on the street"
"I think it's a shame we're allowing Reform UK to set the tone and the agenda and the way we talk about illegal immigrants"
*Nadine Dorries is now biting her lips*
Another huge clap/m
https://x.com/implausibleblog/status/1981490881862451604
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hN_CVvzExpM
Link: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cdjrlmd4pmeo
The Premier of the Province is Doug Ford (yes, Rob Ford's brother), and he's about as bona fide a conservative as they come.
...In a post on X, the Ronald Reagan Foundation said that the Ontario government had used "selective audio and video" of the former US president's remarks on tariffs.
"The Government of Ontario did not seek nor receive permission to use and edit the remarks," the statement added.
The foundation said the advert "misrepresents" the former president's address, without specifying why...
Reagan's views were pretty self evident.
"The Ronald Reagan Foundation" doesn't seem to share them.
He was prepared to use them on occasion, but he would have been diametrically opposed to the Trump tariff love.
Abbott spooks academia after declaring Texas will go after professors for ‘ideological differences’
https://thehill.com/homenews/education/5567809-abbott-texas-college-professors/
Conservatives complain to whips about fellow MP’s comments on legally settled people
Exclusive: Criticism of Katie Lam comes amid widespread confusion in the party over its policy on indefinite leave to remain
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2025/oct/23/conservatives-complain-to-whips-about-fellow-mps-comments-on-legally-settled-people
Just to be clear:
..Kemi Badenoch’s spokesperson said on Wednesday that Lam’s comments were “broadly in line” with party policy, which was interpreted by some as an endorsement and others as a gentle rebuke...
- Labour was trounced (fair)
- PC “narrowly beat” Reform (I’d put it down as a solid if unspectacular margin - but certainly better than “narrowly”)
They were the clear main opponent to Reform who continue to struggle to get out of the 30-35% range, That makes them vulnerable to tactical voting, which voters do more readily in a by-election. They still looks good for a GE though.
But a VERY BAD night for polling however it is dressed up. This can give little confidence that polling is anything more that electioneering in other ways. My guess would be that if PC had just picked a usual candidate then Reform would have come closer or even won: there would not have been as high a turn out.
Now I don't know PC like the other parties but if it is anything like Ref, Con, LD or Lab then the only reason the successful candidate was allowed to stand was because the party nationally thought the seat was a no hoper.
It will be fun to see that Nigel won't have time to do any media interviews today !!! But it does look as if some natural Labour supporters thought Ref was a vote too far, being a home for de-selected Tories.
There is more electoral turmoil to come but on this as so many things Mrs T was right. "When all else fails voters do the right thing".
Does suggest Reform have a ceiling, and their stellar polling numbers are essentially a function of everyone else feeling a bit meh.
Only got 13/8 though.
Reform have peaked
SKS Party still plummeting to record breaking defeats in LE2026
He’s had a few hissy fits at China yet today Bessent is meeting the Chinese VP.
There will be some sort of backing down and deal,I’d expect.
Ironic that the word 'hegemony' has a Greek origin, though...
Hope you're getting some fantastic pictures and seeing many ancient things.
Good morning, everyone.
And THAT'S why I need you to come up with twenty original bits of artwork each showing two horses in a race.
I thought also a Nathan Gill effect too. Voters don't like traitors and Farage's attempts to handwave the issue away are not credible.
I got odds boost to 2/1, but only a fiver.
And tactical voting across the country could easily see Reform significantly underperform what polling would expect them to achieve unless they can rise further to reach a tipping point at which tactical voting won't be enough.
It's not the result that I had hoped for, but it shows there's still a long way for Reform to go. The only real solution is to win people over to the right of politics, by making convincing arguments.
Doesn't he know how by-elections work?
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=oi0YHJxQsiI
Now it's probably better for the UK as a whole for Reform to win Wales as a whole and then screw up delivery but that doesn't exactly do Wales any good so it may as well be Plaid.
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/WtD3NY9MzHg
John Curtice reckons it's the worst result for Lab in a Welsh By Election ever.
https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2025-10-24/ty-article-magazine/.highlight/heartbroken-these-israelis-moved-to-greece-but-the-war-wouldnt-let-them-be/0000019a-148f-de9d-adbe-fcef2f160000
The graffiti is in English so that Israelis can read it.
The PB faithful claiming earlier a 3500 majority is a marginal win are laughable. A win is a win, see Runcorn. I note the solid three figure vote for the Tories passed them by, so even by adding every Tory vote, Plaid coast home.
The Labour story is they lost their seat comprehensively An even bigger story is that despite expectations, Reform are beatable in Senedd elections. I wonder if that opens up a media backlash against Plaid. The unopened bottle of GeeBeebies Champagne is safely back in the fridge.
The Nathan Gill affair stinks, and Farage's lame handwaving away of Russian links to his party is not to be ignored.
The audience very often features party members (no reason they shouldn’t be there, of course).
A real 'affair' that 'stinks' is the Starmer Governments' position concerning the PRC - that is actually a live national security threat.
In Lib Dem, Green and Independent held seats the alternative is clear, but in Labour held constituencies in England what is going to happen?
I think we may well see anti-reform tactical voting in more marginal benefiting Labour to a degree, while hammering the Labour vote in seats where there is no perceived Reform threat.
We may well be in Greens take Bootle territory.
Something that has cheered me recently is the backlash against future Tory PM, Katie Lam, not least on here.
As things stand, there are an awful lot of seats in the first category and there may even be some in the second.
If this is one tiny nail in the coffin of the paper thin populist simplistic solutions to our problems, whether from the right or the left, then that's a good thing.
However, it's not just on the right that there is a lack of convincing arguments. Much as I like Polanski's presence on the political stage, for example, he stills speaks economic illiteracy, just as Farage does.
I expect many conservatives voted Plaid to keep out both labour and reform
Being convicted of something doesn't absolve someone. Quite the opposite.
The issue in a lot of constituencies especially outside a By-election will be correctly working out which candidate is the one best placed to beat Reform..