Kemi quits of her own volition ? – politicalbetting.com
Kemi quits of her own volition ? – politicalbetting.com
The Times have the story about how some Tory MPs including those in the shadow cabinet are looking to oust Kemi Badenoch as soon as next month, Robert Jenrick wants to wait until after next year’s elections.
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It's not her fault that her party is dying. No one can resuscitate a corpse.
Then when the results came out: surprise! They were both French.
The most effective electoral machine in history is back from the brink. Unfortunately as a racist un-British party of the extreme right.
I can hear the sea lions barking
What a place
It's often the case at party conferences and such gatherings you see the activists for the extreme radicals some are. It's true for all parties the activists will often go further than both the more generally pragmatic leadership and the voter base.
Not always true though - in overtly populist parties, the voter base can also be infected by this radical "madness". I have Reform supporting friends whose "solutions" to the problem of the "boats" would be even more extreme than some of the ideas I've seen on here but they see their solutions as "the only answer" from their apparently migrant-infested (their words) towns where the white British population has slumped to 96%.
The problem is radical "influencers" on social media and the Internet can say inflammatory, contradictory, misleading and downright wrong things and some accept them as gospel. We live in a plural democracy and we should hear as many voices as possible (not that we do currently as some voices are louder and more persistent than others) but it is incumbent on political leaders to keep the conversation within not just legal and moral boundaries but factual ones.
Influencers, provovateurs, sh1tposters, call them what you like, they have been part of the political process for centuries but only rarely have they actually become the legal currency of political discourse.
I don't think she's found the answers for them, though.
Pat Cummins to miss first Ashes Test in hammer blow for Australia
Fast bowler will not have recovered in time from back injury for match in Perth and is still a doubt for the rest of the series
https://x.com/TeleCricket/status/1975826317011489181
It doesn’t work that way. People aren’t listening.
Kemi clearly doesn’t have the strategic vision they need, but then, who does? Jenrick just wants to ape Reform, how will that help if people still associate the Tories with a disastrous previous government? Do Cleverly, Stride, Hunt etc really have the political skills to both repudiate governments they were senior members of but also sell a vision for the future? And rising “stars” like Katie Lam haven’t been MPs for 5 minutes, do they really have the raw leadership skills to make a difference?
The party is in a sorry state and I’m not quite sure who can save it, other than Nigel Farage exiting the political scene and potentially freeing up some voters on the right, to shift back.
If they can survive the next GE then they might just manage to get a hearing with a fresh(er) face and a bold strategy. Whether they get that chance, very hard to say.
Magical
As the man who predicted the Truss comeback I’m a whale in the betting markets so I don’t reveal my bets publicly
Some examples. A Labour recovery + a Tory recovery more or less making them equal with Reform = Labour led government.
Tory and Reform electoral pact not to stand against each other = Tory and Reform government.
Tory wipeout but Reform getting most seats, say 290, = chaos.
Either Labour or Tory finding a leader over the next two years of charismatic quality + Reform feuding internally = Labour or Tory government.
Farage ceasing to be leader of Reform = unknown outcome.
War involving NATO = unknown outcome. Add swans of various colours including Black ones.
Good morning, everybody.
As I warned at the time of the last leadership election.
That's where I tipped Pierre Poilievre to lose his seat at 14/1.
#LegendaryModestyKlaxon
I've only seen sea otters from a distance.
It's up to you whether you wish to reveal your big political bets or not but as to taking the advice of the PB forum, there was a comment about a Tory leader preferring to listen to his butler (or valet) than the Party Conference and that's probably apposite.
If you're driving up the coast, stop by Gayle's Bakery in Capitola, and try their key lime pie.
Long queues if you don't get there early.
https://gaylesbakery.menu
It's possible Badenoch will end up like Hague who was little appreciated by the public but I believe did a lot behind the scenes to rebuild the shattered Conservative organisation after 1997.
I don’t think Kemi has been great as LOTO, but I do think there is some raw talent there as a politician, it just isn’t able to get out in the current timing/circumstances.
They’ve put me in a superb hotel: the Monterey Plaza. With a massive balcony overlooking the bay. The local tourist board is, also, so stupidly wealthy they gave me a £50 bottle of Monterey Pinot Noir and a free £100 pair of Nocs binoculars
So last night at twilight I stood on my balcony and sipped my Pinot and watched all the otters through my chic new binos. It was a moment
It’s a particularly sensitive for Indian workers as outsourcing takes jobs and money out of the country
The UK should start charging foreign workers HIGHER taxes. Would be a popular and good way to raise funds
Call it the immigration triple lock: shortage industries only, always 1.5x the median wage, immigrants have to pay an immigration tax
Would be popular imo
Somebody has messaged me this scenario given Jenrick doesn't want Badenoch ousted until after next year's elections.
1) Allies of James Cleverly get Badenoch ousted in November
2) They stand aside and let Jenrick become leader in November
3) The Tories are mullered in May 2026
4) Jenrick takes the blame and is ousted
5) Clearing the way for Cleverly to be coronated in late 2026.
Cleverly might be setting up the greatest ambush since Midway.
A substantial dose of humility would take her a long way but that's often rationed in politics and among political leaders in particular.
However, she is pretty bad. The Tories maybe have one more roll of the dice and it’s gotta be Jenrick. He will at least get them noticed
https://www.visitsealife.com/birmingham/tickets-prices/vip-experiences/meet-the-sea-otters/
EDIT: Ah, no, sorry I see what you've done there. Not an organ.
A very good pun by our recuperating postie @BlancheLivermore
I saw them on the same coast but from a distance somewhere on that drive down Big Sur to LA. They were indeed lounging on sea kelp. What a drive that is!!!
Must be thirty five years ago now. Glad to hear the otters are still there.
The mood changes in about autumn of 2027. The Tories need whoever will lead into 2029 in place by end 2026/start of 2027. (Labour ditto).
No parties are well placed for switching leaders. For Lab, Con, Reform and LD (to say nothing of SNP, PC and Green) not a single truly outstanding, epoch creating, bar storming, election shifting figure yet stands out.
Of course it’s highly possible the Tories are doomed and the ID of the leader is now irrelevant
Great headline.
'Otters Are Not Cute, They Are Sick Depraved Jerks'
https://www.iflscience.com/otters-are-not-cute-they-are-sick-depraved-jerks-47995
(Wasn’t Cleverly the one who tried to play silly games with the leadership election and got it wrong)
PALS: OK, lets oust Badenoch
JENRICK: Not yet! Then I'd get the blame for May!
Tells you everything you need to know. Mr Toomanydarkies knows that under his leadership they will still get demolished, and he wants someone else to get the blame.
https://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2024/10/12/the-cunning-and-awesomeness-of-robert-jenrick/
ETA scooped by Gallowgate.
Assassins rarely succeed those they remove though as Heseltine and Sunak discovered in previous Tory leadership contests. If Kemi was removed I think Cleverly is therefore likely to succeed her, the Michael Howard to her IDS and Jenrick's David Davis
Shame it's freezing though.
Someone needs to rescue what is left of the party before it is too late. Jenrick thinks Enoch was Right. Cleverly shouts "cos its a shithole" abuses about towns *which have a Tory MP*.
Neither of these cretins can turn things around. But Hunt could. A pity the Tories won't vote for him cos he's practically a communist or something.
I'm confident that Con largest party is impossible.
Le Pen is now way ahead - but only because her opponents are collapsing (and some new party?). Very similar to Farage in the UK
France, OpinionWay poll:
Others: 6%
RN and allies-PfE: 33%
PCF/LÉ/PS-LEFT|G/EFA|S&D: 18% (n.a.)
Ensemble-RE: 14% (-8)
LR-EPP: 12% (+3)
LFI-LEFT: 9% (n.a.)
REC-ESN: 6% (+5)
LO-*: 2% (+1)
+/- vs. 2024 election
Fieldwork: 06-07 September 2025
Sample size: 1,012
Lots of policy to cheer the members this week, in theory, but this is the membership who chose Liz Truss and Kemi Badenoch, and look less and less like Britian (sorry Britain) every conference.
5th with younger voters, despised over Brexit, austerity and sleaze. And their answer is to leave the EHCR as well because Brexit wasn't hard enough? They need a leader who can speak to the country not the members. Another Cameron. I doubt that leader is an MP yet. In some ways the only target is survival as a party until he/she emerges. Whether Jenrick takes over in November or June hardly matters.
@GoodwinMJ
Should I run for office at the next general election?
Yes 80.2%
No19.8%
19,077 votes
9 hours left"
https://x.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1975631171322278055