Robert Jenrick, a man of letters? – politicalbetting.com
Robert Jenrick, a man of letters? – politicalbetting.com
NEW: Allies of Robert Jenrick are collecting no confidence letters from Conservative MPs calling for party leader Kemi Badenoch to quit, The i Paper has been told.https://t.co/mNBCYDRFTQ
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Next week he hopes to make it to double figures.
Essentially what that means is he'll run confidence and supply for his own government, despite having a 'landslide' majority.
Arrange the letters T, U, C and N.
Sources said up to 12 letters of no confidence had already been written, but are yet to be submitted to Bob Blackman. He is chairman of the backbench 1922 Committee and would normally file letters until the threshold for challenge had been reached. By holding on to the letters, the allies of Jenrick remain in greater control of any potential challenge.
Recent rule changes now require a move by 30 per cent of the Parliamentary party or 36 letters of no-confidence. They would then hold a ballot.
https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/tories-plotting-replace-badenoch-jenrick-3955742
Normally you'd be desperate to win government support for your cause. You've dedicated years to trying to win attention for the importance of planting native woodlands. Do you really want Starmer to notice you?
Isn't there a risk that if Starmer decides to devote a morning to leadenly extolling the virtues of British trees for British woodlands, that by the afternoon the enraged people of Britain will be applying chainsaw to trunk of every woke oak tree that they can find.
I think you'd lay low for a while.
(I hasten to say that this is not related to Mr Jenrick.)
And good morning to all including someone call Ad Hominem who seems to get name checked a lot in the evenings.
The aberration is not his unpopularity, but the landslide majority, and the source of that aberration is obvious: FPTP and the public's overriding desire to punish the Tories.
The public seem to really resent that FPTP gave then the choice between tolerating a Conservative Party that foisted Truss onto the country and Keir Starmer. They are going to want to make up for that at the next election. Keir Starmer will be crushed. The only question is whether it is Reform who benefit - as indicated by current opinion polls - or if some other party (or leader) can seize the moment.
However, I can spot one or two flaws in this strategy.
I wonder if the additional hurdle makes Badenoch a lot safer than we might suppose and brings the Conservatives quite a lot closer to Labour in terms of leader safety.
Clear betting implications here.
I'm not sure we know why they came to the country - if it was as refugees it might explain the council house.
If Jenrick supporters therefore forced a VONC which Kemi lost, I would then expect Kemi loyalist MPs to back Cleverly to succeed her. As last year the combined Kemi and Cleverly backing Tory MPs were 2/3 of the Conservatives parliamentary party that would then make Cleverly leader by coronation
And please don't confuse Robert Jenrick with that similarly names, daft politician Jobert Renrick who trumpeted placing more and more Asylum Seekers into Holiday Inn Express hotels.
Reeves remains firmly committed to the manifesto promises, however, according to colleagues, and is not asking officials to cost how much specific tax-raising measures that would involve breaching them in November’s budget might raise.
Having carried out a stocktake of its productivity forecasts over the summer, the OBR is understood to have presented Reeves with a significantly more pessimistic preliminary growth forecast last month.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2025/oct/04/rachel-reeves-urged-to-break-manifesto-pledges-to-avoid-pasty-tax-budget
Cleverly could also get Labour and LD tactical votes against Reform in Tory held seats Kemi and Jenrick can't
No one seemed to consider that state resources were limited and that they should be deployed to those who need them the most
I’d avoid a cliff edge - but perhaps a sliding scale so that at, say, 67% of the median wage you are paying current levels of subsidised rents up to, say, 120% of median wage where you pay the full market rent
🤷🏼♂️
We need to go back to my suggestion. Council houses are awarded to Britons more on merit and less on need
Merit means a mix of: military service, no criminal record, English language, length of connection to Britain (eg those born here have more rights than recent entrants) - and so forth
This especially applies to social housing in desirable areas like central London
I think we need to lose this odd assumption that growth and productivity are how you balance the budget. It's actually about balancing spending, tax and borrowing - and this is necessary and possible whatever the size of your economy. If we are to have fiscal rules, perhaps a better one is that the structural deficit is zero in the next financial year assuming no economic growth.
If Burnham was an MP again he would almost certainly get enough nominations from Labour MPs to challenge Starmer then comfortably beat Starmer in the Labour membership vote
Anyway shared ownership, part own, part rent is limited to those earning under £90K. So renting will be a lesser amount than that. But you'd have to establish the facts first which are often missing or misinterpreted when feelings are running high.
There are eight in sight.
Routinely, posh papers and accountants advise the rich (or HENRYs, high-earning, not rich yet) to use salary sacrifice to keep their income below the threshold and at the same time enjoy the Chancellor's largesse on private pensions.
Traditionally those on the left welcome universality of benefits because it means the well-off have skin in the game and will not seek to cut payments that go only to the poor. WFA is a good example. The argument for universality from the right is that it saves money on administration – paying benefits becomes more expensive where you need to check who qualifies.
benefit at £100k or above household income.
I would then use the savings to increase child benefit for the majority of parents who still claim it
When the median wage is, what, £27k!
What we should have had is 3p on income tax and reform of council tax to be based on estimated house price alongside removal of stamp duty.
And vat should have been changed instead of employer ni
(Though I note that the immunity is pretty theoretical. May, Johnson and Truss were all technically immune when they fell.)
Edit: also the issue with council tax is the amount raised not who pays it.
If you want to increase the amount raised by far and away the quickest and easiest way to do it is to add a couple of bands
A revaluation doesn’t change anything except for redistribution which should be done based on income tax (or an asset tax) not based on the vagaries of what house people live in
(Also, huge thoughts for you and your wife at the moment, I haven't had a chance to say this yet).
What she absolutely should do is challenge them to successfully 'predict' the past. Create a model that predicts the past with reasonable accurracy, and you can be allowed to use that model (for now) to predict the future. Fail to do that, and you have effectively delegitimised yourself.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elementary_Education_Act_1870
I think allies of anyone are probably right to collect letters themselves, then send them en masse. I don't really trust the 1922 committee, didn't under Brady, don't now.
However, I think Kemi is going to have a pretty good conference (and that is my hope too). Perhaps even a modest polling boost from it.
"The hurried actions of those working for DOGE collapsed vital services, leaving government officials backpedaling. On September 24 the Associated Press examined the effect of DOGE on the General Services Administration (GSA), an agency established in the 1940s to manage the thousands of workplaces used by federal employees. DOGE employees targeted the GSA as a prime example of waste, fraud, and abuse. They abruptly canceled almost half of the leases for government space—without telling the tenants—and called for generating savings by selling off federally owned buildings. They also cut staff at headquarters by 79%, portfolio managers by 65%, and facilities managers by 35%.
The Associated Press reports that 131 leases expired without the government actually leaving the office space, costing the agencies steep fees. Now officials are asking hundreds of GSA workers to come back after what the Associated Press says “amounts to a seven-month paid vacation.” Chad Becker, a former real estate official with the GSA, told the Associated Press: “Ultimately, the outcome was the agency was left broken and understaffed. They didn’t have the people they needed to carry out basic functions.” "
Heather Cox Richardson email
From the window tax to a dog-ownership tax.
It will be hugely unpopular as a result. The risk is for Starmer that he stands by the hodgepodge, when he should have replaced Reeves after her first effort was such a dud. Standing by her puts him at huge risk that Mr Bond Market says he's had enough. In which case, they will both have to go.
The public still stand by Ukraine.
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If
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One of the victims killed in yesterday's attack at a synagogue in Manchester was shot by police during their attempts to bring the unarmed attacker under control, officers have said
https://x.com/rtenews/status/1974059019158630659