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Analysing the September 2025 YouGov MRP – politicalbetting.com

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  • kjhkjh Posts: 13,199

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    isam said:

    Leon said:

    Some bonkers comments on here last night, of which @Big_G_NorthWales was not one of them.

    "Antifa" is bonkers. Its an idea, not a terrorist organisation. I am antifa. But Big G is quoting someone important mentioning it - which makes it relevant to post on here.

    What else did we have. "every sane Patriotic Brit" have to vote for Farage - Mr Russia who went to American demanding economic sanctions on us.

    A "civil war" if Reform win the election or "eventual islamic takeover" if they don't. Riiiiiiiiight.

    This forum is a microcosm of the real world. We have representatives from most elements of real world politics. And we need to try switching off and back on again as everyone has lost it.

    Calm down. The “every sane patriotic Brit” remark was me having a giraffe. I know it winds up the Centrist Duds

    For a start, you could ALSO vote for Advance
    If you’d have suggested, fifty or sixty years ago, that London would have a Muslim mayor, entire neighbourhoods in big cities would be almost entirely Muslim, churches were disappearing but mosques were increasing, and there were half a dozen MPs elected solely on the back of a bloc of Islamic votes, they’d have called you an absolute loon who was scaremongering. And that’s not to mention 7/7, Lee Rigby, Manchester Arena etc

    But that is where we are, and it’s regarded as completely normal. Actually it’s considered offensive to criticise, or even to merely point it out.

    So why would it be odd if we were governed by an Islamic party or the country became majority Muslim in another fifty years or so? The demographics are pointing in that direction. Things change, they have already are are continuing to do so
    Also: that white Britons would become a minority in their own capital city. Ditto Manchester and other cities

    Unthinkable NF race-baiting 50 years ago. Now a fact
    We've already covered the White Britons in London ambiguity part extensively, though. White anglo/celts are probably a minority in London, whereas White Britons probably aren't, due to the government still not clarifying the census categories correctly.

    “In London, the 2021 UK Census showed that about 37% of Londoners identified as “White: English, Welsh, Scottish, Northern Irish or British” — that’s the classic “White British” category”

    And that is BEFORE the Boriswave. The percentage will be notably lower, now
    As we've discussed extensively on this, British is a civic category dating to 1707, not an ethnicity. A large number of white and British Londoners are not putting that on the census, because they think it means only english or celtic.
    What a load of obfuscating bollocks. We can only go by self ID. Unless you want to go out and do the pencil test on everyone

    In the 2021 census white Britons - self identified - constituted 37% of Londoners. And, given the speed of the fall since 1990 and the advent of the Boriswave, that number will be even lower now, and still falling

    It’s called “white flight”. It happened to American cities and now it’s happening - very fast - in European cities
    The composition of my house is 80% non white British and it's totally fine.
    The composition of my flat is 50% tabby.
    One third of ours is mixed race (Springer/Poodle)
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 11,096
    Pulpstar said:

    Ben Zaranko
    @BenZaranko

    There are some eye-popping stats in this new report from my @TheIFS colleagues.

    Here's just one: 10% of teenagers now receive child disability living allowance (CDLA), up from 5% a decade ago. Just a remarkable change.

    https://x.com/BenZaranko/status/1974040804386562488

    The three year old data is particularly worrying and is a bit of a canary in the coalmine that this is NOT a covid cohort phenomenon and will in fact be ongoing. Gov't needs to get a grip on this, badly.
    I suspect it’s driven by the increase in mental health claims
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 81,727
    Pulpstar said:

    Nigelb said:

    Beginning of the solar takeover in Spain.

    Makes our energy policy, and Milliband, look even worse.

    Spain is successfully decoupling electricity prices from gas power costs 🇪🇸⚡️

    Spain reduced the number of hours where electricity prices exceed gas costs by 75% since 2019.

    As a result, Spain's electricity prices were 32% lower than the EU average in H1-2025...

    https://x.com/nicolasfulghum/status/1973681424785191404

    Spain does have a bit of natural advantage when it comes to solar power though !
    Indeed, and that's going to be an increasingly large challenge for Northern Europe as solar gets steadily cheaper.

    Whatever the answer is - and it probably includes massive investment in Europe wide high voltage grid interconnects - Ed Milliband isn't part of it.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 20,329

    MattW said:

    Sarah Mulally as next ABP. The Church Times is a good place to watch.

    The Church Times will have a lot of coverage from different angles, and you get two free articles a month with a free account, or it archives successfully.
    https://www.churchtimes.co.uk/

    Next week's letters page will also be one to look at for a range of thoughtful views.

    Also: "What lies ahead for the new Archbishop?" Podcast from 19/9.
    https://www.churchtimes.co.uk/articles/2025/19-september/audio-video/podcast/podcast-what-lies-ahead-for-the-next-archbishop-of-canterbury

    My calls:

    1 - Problems will be more international, rather than within the UK. There is potential for eg "Primus inter Pares" for the Anglican Communion to be split from "Archbishop of Canterbury" as a Via Media to keep the show on the road, or something similar.
    2 - One significant point will be about how marginal the story becomes across our media. If it is niche, that speaks to a marginalisation of the Church of England, and the Bishops in the Lords are at risk.
    3 - When listening to Justin Welby's poorly judged standing-down speech in the Lords (and I've generally been a fan on JW) she had a face like thunder throughout afaics, whilst the male Bishops sitting behind chuckled a little at his couple of quips. That is a positive indicator, perhaps.
    4 - Some have personal questions about her on things in London Diocese. I don't know enough to comment on how material these are.
    https://youtu.be/2Uerg54oTJQ?t=283

    Fundamentally, the problem the Church of England has is that it doesn't believe in itself.
    To be fair it is hard to retain self-confidence when so many people in Britain have turned away from it.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 30,137

    Sean_F said:

    boulay said:

    Just had fantastic service at A&E, seen, analysed, x-rayed and assessed in an hour.

    Wanted to post about a very interesting seminar I went to yesterday as some very interesting approaches coming in relation to property and stable coin. An incredibly interesting day for even a Luddite like me.

    Also v interesting about the regulation issues globally - never thought I would find regulation talks so interesting.

    Will post what I can later when I stop vomming from pain and although limited what I can say about yesterday it was perfect timing with the BOE volte face on digital currencies.

    Hope you feel better soon. :(

    My recent NHS experience was also good - in part. It took me a few weeks to get a referral to the hospital (I think due to my GP not actually requesting one at first...(*)), but when it finally came the referral was for a week's time. I was seen yesterday with only a ten-minute wait past the scheduled time, they took five x-rays, and I got basic results from my GP this morning.

    (*) Though I think the GP might have been dissuaded by the following conversation:
    "So you've dislocated your shoulder, and your elbow is hurting."
    "Yes."
    "And you're in pain."
    "Yes."
    "But you've done two triathlons since."
    "Yes."
    "Despite being in pain?"
    My wife: "Yes, but that's the sort of stupid thing he does..."

    (GP shrugs and sends the request to /dev/null)
    I’m currently in Emergency Surgery, at Luton & Dunstable, after a bad accident, and they have been outstanding. This is the second occasion they’ve saved my life (the first being appendicitis in 2013).
    What has befallen PB today that everyone is ill and injured! Get better soon.
    I'm OK. Are you OK?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 25,997
    Thank you for the article, @GarethoftheVale2 : it was so good I thought @Quincel (https://bsky.app/profile/quincel.bsky.social) had come back
  • LeonLeon Posts: 65,776
    Crivvens, can PBers stop falling over?!

    Get Well Soon and Deep Sympathies to

    @JosiasJessop
    @boulay

    and especially

    @Sean_F who appears to have had a narrow escape from the jaws of demise

    *group hug*

  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 10,818
    edited 11:52AM
    Drones now detected over the Belgian NATO base in Eisenborn, and Munich.

    The very, very sparse infirmation as to what these actually are, combined with their supposedly extremely advanced capabilities, is beginning to remind me of the New Jersey drones flap.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,280

    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Ben Zaranko
    @BenZaranko

    There are some eye-popping stats in this new report from my @TheIFS colleagues.

    Here's just one: 10% of teenagers now receive child disability living allowance (CDLA), up from 5% a decade ago. Just a remarkable change.

    https://x.com/BenZaranko/status/1974040804386562488

    The three year old data is particularly worrying and is a bit of a canary in the coalmine that this is NOT a covid cohort phenomenon and will in fact be ongoing. Gov't needs to get a grip on this, badly.
    Ultimately this is about the normalisation of disability and the extension of what it means to be disabled. My students that have DAPs (disability action plans) most often are 'anxious' or 'stressed' or 'depressed'. Things that in previous times we accepted as part of life. Is it better or worse what we do now?
    Anxiety =/= disability. Not in my book anyway.
    I reckon I might have qualified for that as a kid. The problem I had was that the teachers wanted to add to my anxiety!
    I had asthma as a child/young teenager. I would have liked some sort of support, instead of abuse, especially for always being last in cross-country.
    I'd puff and pant my way to the half way rest-point, only to be told that there was no time for a rest; everyone else had been waiting for me.
    I'm also asthmatic and can relate to that, though I gave fewer f***s about PE, tech, and art (had a great teacher who's husband was my maths teacher and she let me do my maths homework instead of art).

    It's the "you're not good enough at English; it won't matter how good you are at maths" bullshit that I am very bitter about.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 30,767
    MattW said:

    viewcode said:

    Breakdown of the US online right factions

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IQKMZdBv2yA (9 mins)
    0:00 neoconservative
    0:57 populism
    1:50 libertarianism
    2:41 technocrats
    3:38 traditional conservative
    4:30 manosphere
    5:23 groypers

    That's interesting, as is the photo of Yaxley-Lennon under Identitarians.

    I assume it is AI, and it is very Usonian.

    I think it misses out distinctions based on attitudes to free markets and international trade, which is one of the key MAGA vs "Globalists" distinctives.

    That one is also afaics a new distinctive acting as a deep dividing wall on the UK Right.

    Test question: Was Margaret Thatcher a Conservative?
    Well. She believed in man-made Climate change.
    Some noted at the time she was more a Gladstonian liberal.
    Meanwhile. Am I right in gleaning that the head of an organisation opposed to anti-Semitism was warning of the dangers of emboldening anti-Fascists?
  • isamisam Posts: 42,755
    edited 11:49AM

    isam said:

    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:

    Leon said:

    Some bonkers comments on here last night, of which @Big_G_NorthWales was not one of them.

    "Antifa" is bonkers. Its an idea, not a terrorist organisation. I am antifa. But Big G is quoting someone important mentioning it - which makes it relevant to post on here.

    What else did we have. "every sane Patriotic Brit" have to vote for Farage - Mr Russia who went to American demanding economic sanctions on us.

    A "civil war" if Reform win the election or "eventual islamic takeover" if they don't. Riiiiiiiiight.

    This forum is a microcosm of the real world. We have representatives from most elements of real world politics. And we need to try switching off and back on again as everyone has lost it.

    Calm down. The “every sane patriotic Brit” remark was me having a giraffe. I know it winds up the Centrist Duds

    For a start, you could ALSO vote for Advance
    If you’d have suggested, fifty or sixty years ago, that London would have a Muslim mayor, entire neighbourhoods in big cities would be almost entirely Muslim, churches were disappearing but mosques were increasing, and there were half a dozen MPs elected solely on the back of a bloc of Islamic votes, they’d have called you an absolute loon who was scaremongering. And that’s not to mention 7/7, Lee Rigby, Manchester Arena etc

    But that is where we are, and it’s regarded as completely normal. Actually it’s considered offensive to criticise, or even to merely point it out.

    So why would it be odd if we were governed by an Islamic party or the country became majority Muslim in another fifty years or so? The demographics are pointing in that direction. Things change, they have already are are continuing to do so
    I lived in Aldgate East in the last 1990s, which was 30 years ago, and had a Muslim landlord and all my neighbours were Muslims. Brick Lane and environs and all the areas heading towards Commercial Road and Commercial Street were all majority Muslim.

    I went to a school in Bedford from the 80s to the 90s (Biddenham), that was majority Muslim.

    The main thing I discovered from this is that Muslims (like Jews and atheists and Christians) are just like everybody else.

    Or, let me put it another way, I do wonder if you or @Lenon actually have any close Musliim friends? Because I think when we don't know people in a particular group well, we tend to assume that they are (a) much more homogenous than they are, and (b) that they are much more different to us than they are,
    I’m not criticising Muslims, saying they’re bad people/a bad religion, or anything negative, just saying what I think will happen based on what has happened and what I think will in the future based on my understanding of human behaviour. I don’t see that it matters whether I am friends with any Muslims or not but, even if I were, and they were just like everybody else , I still think we are eventually heading for an Islamic takeover of Britain. Actually you could argue that it’s because they’re just like everybody else that it is likely to happen.
    Complete nonsense, isam. Stop reading far right propaganda.
    I don’t read far right propaganda, these are my own ideas. I don’t see why people get annoyed at me for it, I’m not saying anything horrible about anyone, just how I see things going
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 1,650

    Pulpstar said:

    Ben Zaranko
    @BenZaranko

    There are some eye-popping stats in this new report from my @TheIFS colleagues.

    Here's just one: 10% of teenagers now receive child disability living allowance (CDLA), up from 5% a decade ago. Just a remarkable change.

    https://x.com/BenZaranko/status/1974040804386562488

    The three year old data is particularly worrying and is a bit of a canary in the coalmine that this is NOT a covid cohort phenomenon and will in fact be ongoing. Gov't needs to get a grip on this, badly.
    I suspect it’s driven by the increase in mental health claims
    Doesn't look like it as the increases are in the younger age groups rather than teenagers.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 53,044
    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:

    Leon said:

    Some bonkers comments on here last night, of which @Big_G_NorthWales was not one of them.

    "Antifa" is bonkers. Its an idea, not a terrorist organisation. I am antifa. But Big G is quoting someone important mentioning it - which makes it relevant to post on here.

    What else did we have. "every sane Patriotic Brit" have to vote for Farage - Mr Russia who went to American demanding economic sanctions on us.

    A "civil war" if Reform win the election or "eventual islamic takeover" if they don't. Riiiiiiiiight.

    This forum is a microcosm of the real world. We have representatives from most elements of real world politics. And we need to try switching off and back on again as everyone has lost it.

    Calm down. The “every sane patriotic Brit” remark was me having a giraffe. I know it winds up the Centrist Duds

    For a start, you could ALSO vote for Advance
    If you’d have suggested, fifty or sixty years ago, that London would have a Muslim mayor, entire neighbourhoods in big cities would be almost entirely Muslim, churches were disappearing but mosques were increasing, and there were half a dozen MPs elected solely on the back of a bloc of Islamic votes, they’d have called you an absolute loon who was scaremongering. And that’s not to mention 7/7, Lee Rigby, Manchester Arena etc

    But that is where we are, and it’s regarded as completely normal. Actually it’s considered offensive to criticise, or even to merely point it out.

    So why would it be odd if we were governed by an Islamic party or the country became majority Muslim in another fifty years or so? The demographics are pointing in that direction. Things change, they have already are are continuing to do so
    I lived in Aldgate East in the last 1990s, which was 30 years ago, and had a Muslim landlord and all my neighbours were Muslims. Brick Lane and environs and all the areas heading towards Commercial Road and Commercial Street were all majority Muslim.

    I went to a school in Bedford from the 80s to the 90s (Biddenham), that was majority Muslim.

    The main thing I discovered from this is that Muslims (like Jews and atheists and Christians) are just like everybody else.

    Or, let me put it another way, I do wonder if you or @Lenon actually have any close Musliim friends? Because I think when we don't know people in a particular group well, we tend to assume that they are (a) much more homogenous than they are, and (b) that they are much more different to us than they are,
    @Lenon must be torn between imagining there is no religion, and making sure that there isn't?
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 6,268
    https://x.com/nigel_farage/status/1974050674980606056?s=46

    Farage pushing the “celebration of murder” narrative. Correctly I think.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 30,767
    All the best to our sick and injured colleagues.
    Summat in the air.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 88,116
    Employment levels in both the manufacturing and service sectors have fallen for the 12th month in a row as the S&P Global UK Services PMI indicates slowing growth in September.

    The report, published today, shows that UK Composite PMI Output has dropped to a 5-month low and manufacturing production fell to the greatest extent for 6 months.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 30,137

    viewcode said:

    Breakdown of the US online right factions

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IQKMZdBv2yA (9 mins)
    0:00 neoconservative
    0:57 populism
    1:50 libertarianism
    2:41 technocrats
    3:38 traditional conservative
    4:30 manosphere
    5:23 groypers

    Groypers, gropers or both?
    I think Groypers are followers of Nick Fuentes, are they not?
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 16,355

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    Battlebus said:

    Good morning. The ghouls were out last night and it's not even Halloween. Wonder when we are going to read about someone being radicalised by PB?

    Back on subject and looking at the forecast for my own 'safe' Tory seat which is supposed to go Reform. Knowing the local Reform people (ex-UKIP) they just don't have the skills to run a council given the level of issues to be dealt with locally. Scale that up to Westminster and if Reform do get in, then unless there is something like the Heritage Foundation or some well-financed Think Tank, then it will be more of a disaster than the previous 3 governments.

    One can only hope there will be more defections of skilled and capable politicians to Reform before 2029 cos a Reform government won't be pretty.

    I am in one of the seats showing conservative on this MRP, with Reform a close second. My Tory MP is one of the relatively sane ones, but there is no way that I would tactically vote for them when Jenrick will be running on the same platform as Reform.
    If Kemi is replaced next year it will be Cleverly who replaces her by coronation as Tory MPs elected Howard by coronation to succeed IDS in 2003 and Sunak by coronation to replace Truss in 2022.

    Tory voters who stayed loyal in 2024 and all voters prefer Cleverly too polls show, only Reform voters prefer Jenrick. Even Tory members rejected Jenrick last year
    The best chance the Tories have is to select a leader who looks "prime ministerial" and is able to attract Reform-defectors who are queasy about the prospect of Nige in Downing Street. May also help with the fight with the LibDems. Cleverly appears the only option so far as I can see and, let's face it, he would have won the top job if the Tory MP's hadn't screwed up the leadership election. I think he must still feel in the game, as he accepted a job in the shadow cabinet (much like Howard becoming Shadow Chancellor under IDS when he might have reasonably retired).

    There was some talk downstream about the SDP. Worth remembering that they brought to the party some serious politicians with cabinet experience - Jenkins, Owen, Williams plus several more competent juniors. So far, Reform has only Farage, who is no-one's idea of a competent man of government. And as for his followers - don't ask.

    Whatever happen, Reform will prove short-lived. They either fail to maintain momentum, don't win the election, and then disappear when Farage steps down, and the Tories recover. Or else, they win, form a Government, and collapse under the pressure of office and events. Just imagine what a Reform-majority parliamentary party would look like. "Strong and stable"?
    I suspect if Cleverley is not leader by conference next year he will be unveiled as London Mayor candidate.
    From what I hear the Tory establishment are already plotting to make Cleverly party leader and Seb Coe London Mayoral candidate by conference next year
    Interesting, thanks! Not sure about Seb though, hes a funny one
    Although older voters will remember him running and winning in the past
    He does better in a first past the post system.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 6,268
    isam said:

    isam said:

    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:

    Leon said:

    Some bonkers comments on here last night, of which @Big_G_NorthWales was not one of them.

    "Antifa" is bonkers. Its an idea, not a terrorist organisation. I am antifa. But Big G is quoting someone important mentioning it - which makes it relevant to post on here.

    What else did we have. "every sane Patriotic Brit" have to vote for Farage - Mr Russia who went to American demanding economic sanctions on us.

    A "civil war" if Reform win the election or "eventual islamic takeover" if they don't. Riiiiiiiiight.

    This forum is a microcosm of the real world. We have representatives from most elements of real world politics. And we need to try switching off and back on again as everyone has lost it.

    Calm down. The “every sane patriotic Brit” remark was me having a giraffe. I know it winds up the Centrist Duds

    For a start, you could ALSO vote for Advance
    If you’d have suggested, fifty or sixty years ago, that London would have a Muslim mayor, entire neighbourhoods in big cities would be almost entirely Muslim, churches were disappearing but mosques were increasing, and there were half a dozen MPs elected solely on the back of a bloc of Islamic votes, they’d have called you an absolute loon who was scaremongering. And that’s not to mention 7/7, Lee Rigby, Manchester Arena etc

    But that is where we are, and it’s regarded as completely normal. Actually it’s considered offensive to criticise, or even to merely point it out.

    So why would it be odd if we were governed by an Islamic party or the country became majority Muslim in another fifty years or so? The demographics are pointing in that direction. Things change, they have already are are continuing to do so
    I lived in Aldgate East in the last 1990s, which was 30 years ago, and had a Muslim landlord and all my neighbours were Muslims. Brick Lane and environs and all the areas heading towards Commercial Road and Commercial Street were all majority Muslim.

    I went to a school in Bedford from the 80s to the 90s (Biddenham), that was majority Muslim.

    The main thing I discovered from this is that Muslims (like Jews and atheists and Christians) are just like everybody else.

    Or, let me put it another way, I do wonder if you or @Lenon actually have any close Musliim friends? Because I think when we don't know people in a particular group well, we tend to assume that they are (a) much more homogenous than they are, and (b) that they are much more different to us than they are,
    I’m not criticising Muslims, saying they’re bad people/a bad religion, or anything negative, just saying what I think will happen based on what has happened and what I think will in the future based on my understanding of human behaviour. I don’t see that it matters whether I am friends with any Muslims or not but, even if I were, and they were just like everybody else , I still think we are eventually heading for an Islamic takeover of Britain. Actually you could argue that it’s because they’re just like everybody else that it is likely to happen.
    Complete nonsense, isam. Stop reading far right propaganda.
    I don’t read far right propaganda, these are my own ideas. I don’t see why people get annoyed at me for it, I’m not saying anything horrible about anyone, just how I see things going
    Given migration trends and differential birth rates, I’m not sure why your prediction is seen as sensationalist. It seems pretty logical to me.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 8,168
    The clip I saw of Mahmood interviewed by the BBC this morning was very good. I am starting to see what some PBers have already said about her. She feels like a more solid media performer than many in Labour, and someone who comes across in a relatively straightforward way. I can now see why she is being talked up as a potential successor.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 25,263
    MattW said:

    viewcode said:

    Breakdown of the US online right factions

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IQKMZdBv2yA (9 mins)
    0:00 neoconservative
    0:57 populism
    1:50 libertarianism
    2:41 technocrats
    3:38 traditional conservative
    4:30 manosphere
    5:23 groypers

    Groypers, gropers or both?
    I think Groypers are followers of Nick Fuentes, are they not?
    Gropers are those Trumpists who believe "Grab them by the pussy" to be the 11th commandment.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 16,355
    MattW said:

    Sean_F said:

    boulay said:

    Just had fantastic service at A&E, seen, analysed, x-rayed and assessed in an hour.

    Wanted to post about a very interesting seminar I went to yesterday as some very interesting approaches coming in relation to property and stable coin. An incredibly interesting day for even a Luddite like me.

    Also v interesting about the regulation issues globally - never thought I would find regulation talks so interesting.

    Will post what I can later when I stop vomming from pain and although limited what I can say about yesterday it was perfect timing with the BOE volte face on digital currencies.

    Hope you feel better soon. :(

    My recent NHS experience was also good - in part. It took me a few weeks to get a referral to the hospital (I think due to my GP not actually requesting one at first...(*)), but when it finally came the referral was for a week's time. I was seen yesterday with only a ten-minute wait past the scheduled time, they took five x-rays, and I got basic results from my GP this morning.

    (*) Though I think the GP might have been dissuaded by the following conversation:
    "So you've dislocated your shoulder, and your elbow is hurting."
    "Yes."
    "And you're in pain."
    "Yes."
    "But you've done two triathlons since."
    "Yes."
    "Despite being in pain?"
    My wife: "Yes, but that's the sort of stupid thing he does..."

    (GP shrugs and sends the request to /dev/null)
    I’m currently in Emergency Surgery, at Luton & Dunstable, after a bad accident, and they have been outstanding. This is the second occasion they’ve saved my life (the first being appendicitis in 2013).
    What has befallen PB today that everyone is ill and injured! Get better soon.
    I'm OK. Are you OK?
    Very jetlagged.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 33,143

    Pulpstar said:

    Ben Zaranko
    @BenZaranko

    There are some eye-popping stats in this new report from my @TheIFS colleagues.

    Here's just one: 10% of teenagers now receive child disability living allowance (CDLA), up from 5% a decade ago. Just a remarkable change.

    https://x.com/BenZaranko/status/1974040804386562488

    The three year old data is particularly worrying and is a bit of a canary in the coalmine that this is NOT a covid cohort phenomenon and will in fact be ongoing. Gov't needs to get a grip on this, badly.
    Local councils being left with an issue/problem that central government politicians don't want to face dealing with. Like adult social care:

    "Councils have little control over this spending as it is determined by the statutory provision set out in EHCPs. Since the cost of provision has exceeded funding provided by central government, local authorities have faced large annual shortfalls. The resulting debts are forecast to reach £8 billion by 2028. This is not financially sustainable. Local authorities are not normally allowed to borrow for day-to- day spending and a ‘statutory override’ of these rules for school spending is set to expire in 2028. If left unchecked – and without top-ups to school spending plans – these spending pressures will likely imply real-terms cuts to mainstream school spending per pupil." (IFS report)
    That's easily solved. Falling pupil numbers means schools can be closed which means children will need to travel further to the remaining schools so the council will pay a lot more in taxi fares but selling the buildings will cover it for the next few years and in the long run, as Keynes did not remark, it will be someone else's problem.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,223

    Employment levels in both the manufacturing and service sectors have fallen for the 12th month in a row as the S&P Global UK Services PMI indicates slowing growth in September.

    The report, published today, shows that UK Composite PMI Output has dropped to a 5-month low and manufacturing production fell to the greatest extent for 6 months.

    Yet all the markets are up, up and up !

    Probably due a bit of a correction soon tbh.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 10,818

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    isam said:

    Leon said:

    Some bonkers comments on here last night, of which @Big_G_NorthWales was not one of them.

    "Antifa" is bonkers. Its an idea, not a terrorist organisation. I am antifa. But Big G is quoting someone important mentioning it - which makes it relevant to post on here.

    What else did we have. "every sane Patriotic Brit" have to vote for Farage - Mr Russia who went to American demanding economic sanctions on us.

    A "civil war" if Reform win the election or "eventual islamic takeover" if they don't. Riiiiiiiiight.

    This forum is a microcosm of the real world. We have representatives from most elements of real world politics. And we need to try switching off and back on again as everyone has lost it.

    Calm down. The “every sane patriotic Brit” remark was me having a giraffe. I know it winds up the Centrist Duds

    For a start, you could ALSO vote for Advance
    If you’d have suggested, fifty or sixty years ago, that London would have a Muslim mayor, entire neighbourhoods in big cities would be almost entirely Muslim, churches were disappearing but mosques were increasing, and there were half a dozen MPs elected solely on the back of a bloc of Islamic votes, they’d have called you an absolute loon who was scaremongering. And that’s not to mention 7/7, Lee Rigby, Manchester Arena etc

    But that is where we are, and it’s regarded as completely normal. Actually it’s considered offensive to criticise, or even to merely point it out.

    So why would it be odd if we were governed by an Islamic party or the country became majority Muslim in another fifty years or so? The demographics are pointing in that direction. Things change, they have already are are continuing to do so
    Also: that white Britons would become a minority in their own capital city. Ditto Manchester and other cities

    Unthinkable NF race-baiting 50 years ago. Now a fact
    We've already covered the White Britons in London ambiguity part extensively, though. White anglo/celts are probably a minority in London, whereas White Britons probably aren't, due to the government still not clarifying the census categories correctly.

    “In London, the 2021 UK Census showed that about 37% of Londoners identified as “White: English, Welsh, Scottish, Northern Irish or British” — that’s the classic “White British” category”

    And that is BEFORE the Boriswave. The percentage will be notably lower, now
    As we've discussed extensively on this, British is a civic category dating to 1707, not an ethnicity. A large number of white and British Londoners are not putting that on the census, because they think it means only english or celtic.
    What a load of obfuscating bollocks. We can only go by self ID. Unless you want to go out and do the pencil test on everyone

    In the 2021 census white Britons - self identified - constituted 37% of Londoners. And, given the speed of the fall since 1990 and the advent of the Boriswave, that number will be even lower now, and still falling

    It’s called “white flight”. It happened to American cities and now it’s happening - very fast - in European cities
    You need to clarify the categories first, before making the descriptions. In recent censuses, hundreds of thousands of people in London who are likely British citizens have put themselves down as "white irish", for instance.

    That's even before the huge number of Britons of Continental origin here, many of them born in Britain.
    My lad (born in Germany, identifies as White European) has just moved down to London from the Midlands. I've not been to London much, but I have to say it seems noticably more relaxed and friendly than I remember it being. For example, just minutes after we arrived and parked up with his stuff, my lad was unfortunately shat upon by a pigeon; a doorman at a nearby hotel noticed, and immediately ran inside to get a tissue for him. And since moving there he keeps getting offered free food by the market traders near his flat. So far so good!
    Yes, London can often be a great place. It's not the fearsome hellhole of Reform imagination.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 88,116
    edited 11:57AM
    A gang of illegal immigrants who stormed a high street armed with machetes and brutally attacked a shop owner have been jailed. Hana Hassan, 22; Yosef Shaban, 24; Osama Qadir, 21, and Dawan Mantik, 28 - all Kurds from Iran and Iraq - arrived in Britain on small boats.

    The four were part of a larger mob of 12 who 'rallied the troops' after a dispute days earlier.

    They targeted fellow Kurd Kurwan Ali at his shop in Bournemouth, Dorset, in a 'ferocious and frighteningly violent attack', leaving one of the victims with life-threatening lung injuries.

    At the time of the attack Hassan was living in the taxpayer-funded Britannia Hotel, which was the focal point of local protests over the summer. Two of the men involved, Ahmed Omar and Rahel Omer, fled the country soon after the events of the following days.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-15158751/Kurdish-illegal-immigrants-jailed-terrifying-machete-attack-shop-owner-judge-tells-not-country.html
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 88,116
    edited 12:00PM
    Pulpstar said:

    Employment levels in both the manufacturing and service sectors have fallen for the 12th month in a row as the S&P Global UK Services PMI indicates slowing growth in September.

    The report, published today, shows that UK Composite PMI Output has dropped to a 5-month low and manufacturing production fell to the greatest extent for 6 months.

    Yet all the markets are up, up and up !

    Probably due a bit of a correction soon tbh.
    All the warning lights on the dashboard are flashing red from graduates struggling to gain employment to food inflation being stubbornly high and a new big black hole in the public finances that will require even higher taxes to address.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 17,027

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    isam said:

    Leon said:

    Some bonkers comments on here last night, of which @Big_G_NorthWales was not one of them.

    "Antifa" is bonkers. Its an idea, not a terrorist organisation. I am antifa. But Big G is quoting someone important mentioning it - which makes it relevant to post on here.

    What else did we have. "every sane Patriotic Brit" have to vote for Farage - Mr Russia who went to American demanding economic sanctions on us.

    A "civil war" if Reform win the election or "eventual islamic takeover" if they don't. Riiiiiiiiight.

    This forum is a microcosm of the real world. We have representatives from most elements of real world politics. And we need to try switching off and back on again as everyone has lost it.

    Calm down. The “every sane patriotic Brit” remark was me having a giraffe. I know it winds up the Centrist Duds

    For a start, you could ALSO vote for Advance
    If you’d have suggested, fifty or sixty years ago, that London would have a Muslim mayor, entire neighbourhoods in big cities would be almost entirely Muslim, churches were disappearing but mosques were increasing, and there were half a dozen MPs elected solely on the back of a bloc of Islamic votes, they’d have called you an absolute loon who was scaremongering. And that’s not to mention 7/7, Lee Rigby, Manchester Arena etc

    But that is where we are, and it’s regarded as completely normal. Actually it’s considered offensive to criticise, or even to merely point it out.

    So why would it be odd if we were governed by an Islamic party or the country became majority Muslim in another fifty years or so? The demographics are pointing in that direction. Things change, they have already are are continuing to do so
    Also: that white Britons would become a minority in their own capital city. Ditto Manchester and other cities

    Unthinkable NF race-baiting 50 years ago. Now a fact
    We've already covered the White Britons in London ambiguity part extensively, though. White anglo/celts are probably a minority in London, whereas White Britons probably aren't, due to the government still not clarifying the census categories correctly.

    “In London, the 2021 UK Census showed that about 37% of Londoners identified as “White: English, Welsh, Scottish, Northern Irish or British” — that’s the classic “White British” category”

    And that is BEFORE the Boriswave. The percentage will be notably lower, now
    As we've discussed extensively on this, British is a civic category dating to 1707, not an ethnicity. A large number of white and British Londoners are not putting that on the census, because they think it means only english or celtic.
    What a load of obfuscating bollocks. We can only go by self ID. Unless you want to go out and do the pencil test on everyone

    In the 2021 census white Britons - self identified - constituted 37% of Londoners. And, given the speed of the fall since 1990 and the advent of the Boriswave, that number will be even lower now, and still falling

    It’s called “white flight”. It happened to American cities and now it’s happening - very fast - in European cities
    The composition of my house is 80% non white British and it's totally fine.
    The composition of my flat is 50% tabby.
    I should have included the cat, who is himself mixed white and tabby/tortoiseshell, a sad reflection of this hideous mongrel city. All the white British shorthair cats have moved to Kent.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 30,767
    moonshine said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:

    Leon said:

    Some bonkers comments on here last night, of which @Big_G_NorthWales was not one of them.

    "Antifa" is bonkers. Its an idea, not a terrorist organisation. I am antifa. But Big G is quoting someone important mentioning it - which makes it relevant to post on here.

    What else did we have. "every sane Patriotic Brit" have to vote for Farage - Mr Russia who went to American demanding economic sanctions on us.

    A "civil war" if Reform win the election or "eventual islamic takeover" if they don't. Riiiiiiiiight.

    This forum is a microcosm of the real world. We have representatives from most elements of real world politics. And we need to try switching off and back on again as everyone has lost it.

    Calm down. The “every sane patriotic Brit” remark was me having a giraffe. I know it winds up the Centrist Duds

    For a start, you could ALSO vote for Advance
    If you’d have suggested, fifty or sixty years ago, that London would have a Muslim mayor, entire neighbourhoods in big cities would be almost entirely Muslim, churches were disappearing but mosques were increasing, and there were half a dozen MPs elected solely on the back of a bloc of Islamic votes, they’d have called you an absolute loon who was scaremongering. And that’s not to mention 7/7, Lee Rigby, Manchester Arena etc

    But that is where we are, and it’s regarded as completely normal. Actually it’s considered offensive to criticise, or even to merely point it out.

    So why would it be odd if we were governed by an Islamic party or the country became majority Muslim in another fifty years or so? The demographics are pointing in that direction. Things change, they have already are are continuing to do so
    I lived in Aldgate East in the last 1990s, which was 30 years ago, and had a Muslim landlord and all my neighbours were Muslims. Brick Lane and environs and all the areas heading towards Commercial Road and Commercial Street were all majority Muslim.

    I went to a school in Bedford from the 80s to the 90s (Biddenham), that was majority Muslim.

    The main thing I discovered from this is that Muslims (like Jews and atheists and Christians) are just like everybody else.

    Or, let me put it another way, I do wonder if you or @Lenon actually have any close Musliim friends? Because I think when we don't know people in a particular group well, we tend to assume that they are (a) much more homogenous than they are, and (b) that they are much more different to us than they are,
    I’m not criticising Muslims, saying they’re bad people/a bad religion, or anything negative, just saying what I think will happen based on what has happened and what I think will in the future based on my understanding of human behaviour. I don’t see that it matters whether I am friends with any Muslims or not but, even if I were, and they were just like everybody else , I still think we are eventually heading for an Islamic takeover of Britain. Actually you could argue that it’s because they’re just like everybody else that it is likely to happen.
    Complete nonsense, isam. Stop reading far right propaganda.
    I don’t read far right propaganda, these are my own ideas. I don’t see why people get annoyed at me for it, I’m not saying anything horrible about anyone, just how I see things going
    Given migration trends and differential birth rates, I’m not sure why your prediction is seen as sensationalist. It seems pretty logical to me.
    Extrapolating a j curve?
    That's why Birkenhead is now the biggest city in the world.
    As was pretty logical in 1870.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 16,355
    moonshine said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:

    Leon said:

    Some bonkers comments on here last night, of which @Big_G_NorthWales was not one of them.

    "Antifa" is bonkers. Its an idea, not a terrorist organisation. I am antifa. But Big G is quoting someone important mentioning it - which makes it relevant to post on here.

    What else did we have. "every sane Patriotic Brit" have to vote for Farage - Mr Russia who went to American demanding economic sanctions on us.

    A "civil war" if Reform win the election or "eventual islamic takeover" if they don't. Riiiiiiiiight.

    This forum is a microcosm of the real world. We have representatives from most elements of real world politics. And we need to try switching off and back on again as everyone has lost it.

    Calm down. The “every sane patriotic Brit” remark was me having a giraffe. I know it winds up the Centrist Duds

    For a start, you could ALSO vote for Advance
    If you’d have suggested, fifty or sixty years ago, that London would have a Muslim mayor, entire neighbourhoods in big cities would be almost entirely Muslim, churches were disappearing but mosques were increasing, and there were half a dozen MPs elected solely on the back of a bloc of Islamic votes, they’d have called you an absolute loon who was scaremongering. And that’s not to mention 7/7, Lee Rigby, Manchester Arena etc

    But that is where we are, and it’s regarded as completely normal. Actually it’s considered offensive to criticise, or even to merely point it out.

    So why would it be odd if we were governed by an Islamic party or the country became majority Muslim in another fifty years or so? The demographics are pointing in that direction. Things change, they have already are are continuing to do so
    I lived in Aldgate East in the last 1990s, which was 30 years ago, and had a Muslim landlord and all my neighbours were Muslims. Brick Lane and environs and all the areas heading towards Commercial Road and Commercial Street were all majority Muslim.

    I went to a school in Bedford from the 80s to the 90s (Biddenham), that was majority Muslim.

    The main thing I discovered from this is that Muslims (like Jews and atheists and Christians) are just like everybody else.

    Or, let me put it another way, I do wonder if you or @Lenon actually have any close Musliim friends? Because I think when we don't know people in a particular group well, we tend to assume that they are (a) much more homogenous than they are, and (b) that they are much more different to us than they are,
    I’m not criticising Muslims, saying they’re bad people/a bad religion, or anything negative, just saying what I think will happen based on what has happened and what I think will in the future based on my understanding of human behaviour. I don’t see that it matters whether I am friends with any Muslims or not but, even if I were, and they were just like everybody else , I still think we are eventually heading for an Islamic takeover of Britain. Actually you could argue that it’s because they’re just like everybody else that it is likely to happen.
    Complete nonsense, isam. Stop reading far right propaganda.
    I don’t read far right propaganda, these are my own ideas. I don’t see why people get annoyed at me for it, I’m not saying anything horrible about anyone, just how I see things going
    Given migration trends and differential birth rates, I’m not sure why your prediction is seen as sensationalist. It seems pretty logical to me.
    Because it is sensationalist. Let’s look at migration trends: from https://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/briefings/migrants-in-the-uk-an-overview/

    “According to the 2021/22 Census, an estimated 32% of all foreign-born residents in the UK came from five countries – India (9%), Poland (8%), Pakistan (6%), Romania (5%), and Ireland (4%).”

    Based on that, and differential birth rates, you should be worrying about a Catholic takeover of the UK!
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 10,818
    edited 12:07PM
    Some footage of whatever it was that closed Munich airport, supposedly from a webcam there. Looks very large, whatever it is :

    https://x.com/wow36932525/status/1974045984582778959
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,905
    dixiedean said:

    moonshine said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:

    Leon said:

    Some bonkers comments on here last night, of which @Big_G_NorthWales was not one of them.

    "Antifa" is bonkers. Its an idea, not a terrorist organisation. I am antifa. But Big G is quoting someone important mentioning it - which makes it relevant to post on here.

    What else did we have. "every sane Patriotic Brit" have to vote for Farage - Mr Russia who went to American demanding economic sanctions on us.

    A "civil war" if Reform win the election or "eventual islamic takeover" if they don't. Riiiiiiiiight.

    This forum is a microcosm of the real world. We have representatives from most elements of real world politics. And we need to try switching off and back on again as everyone has lost it.

    Calm down. The “every sane patriotic Brit” remark was me having a giraffe. I know it winds up the Centrist Duds

    For a start, you could ALSO vote for Advance
    If you’d have suggested, fifty or sixty years ago, that London would have a Muslim mayor, entire neighbourhoods in big cities would be almost entirely Muslim, churches were disappearing but mosques were increasing, and there were half a dozen MPs elected solely on the back of a bloc of Islamic votes, they’d have called you an absolute loon who was scaremongering. And that’s not to mention 7/7, Lee Rigby, Manchester Arena etc

    But that is where we are, and it’s regarded as completely normal. Actually it’s considered offensive to criticise, or even to merely point it out.

    So why would it be odd if we were governed by an Islamic party or the country became majority Muslim in another fifty years or so? The demographics are pointing in that direction. Things change, they have already are are continuing to do so
    I lived in Aldgate East in the last 1990s, which was 30 years ago, and had a Muslim landlord and all my neighbours were Muslims. Brick Lane and environs and all the areas heading towards Commercial Road and Commercial Street were all majority Muslim.

    I went to a school in Bedford from the 80s to the 90s (Biddenham), that was majority Muslim.

    The main thing I discovered from this is that Muslims (like Jews and atheists and Christians) are just like everybody else.

    Or, let me put it another way, I do wonder if you or @Lenon actually have any close Musliim friends? Because I think when we don't know people in a particular group well, we tend to assume that they are (a) much more homogenous than they are, and (b) that they are much more different to us than they are,
    I’m not criticising Muslims, saying they’re bad people/a bad religion, or anything negative, just saying what I think will happen based on what has happened and what I think will in the future based on my understanding of human behaviour. I don’t see that it matters whether I am friends with any Muslims or not but, even if I were, and they were just like everybody else , I still think we are eventually heading for an Islamic takeover of Britain. Actually you could argue that it’s because they’re just like everybody else that it is likely to happen.
    Complete nonsense, isam. Stop reading far right propaganda.
    I don’t read far right propaganda, these are my own ideas. I don’t see why people get annoyed at me for it, I’m not saying anything horrible about anyone, just how I see things going
    Given migration trends and differential birth rates, I’m not sure why your prediction is seen as sensationalist. It seems pretty logical to me.
    Extrapolating a j curve?
    That's why Birkenhead is now the biggest city in the world.
    As was pretty logical in 1870.
    A lot of people did that during the pandemic. Which is why several times the Earth’s population have died from COVID. Many had to be resurrected just to succumb again.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 30,137
    edited 12:12PM

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    isam said:

    Leon said:

    Some bonkers comments on here last night, of which @Big_G_NorthWales was not one of them.

    "Antifa" is bonkers. Its an idea, not a terrorist organisation. I am antifa. But Big G is quoting someone important mentioning it - which makes it relevant to post on here.

    What else did we have. "every sane Patriotic Brit" have to vote for Farage - Mr Russia who went to American demanding economic sanctions on us.

    A "civil war" if Reform win the election or "eventual islamic takeover" if they don't. Riiiiiiiiight.

    This forum is a microcosm of the real world. We have representatives from most elements of real world politics. And we need to try switching off and back on again as everyone has lost it.

    Calm down. The “every sane patriotic Brit” remark was me having a giraffe. I know it winds up the Centrist Duds

    For a start, you could ALSO vote for Advance
    If you’d have suggested, fifty or sixty years ago, that London would have a Muslim mayor, entire neighbourhoods in big cities would be almost entirely Muslim, churches were disappearing but mosques were increasing, and there were half a dozen MPs elected solely on the back of a bloc of Islamic votes, they’d have called you an absolute loon who was scaremongering. And that’s not to mention 7/7, Lee Rigby, Manchester Arena etc

    But that is where we are, and it’s regarded as completely normal. Actually it’s considered offensive to criticise, or even to merely point it out.

    So why would it be odd if we were governed by an Islamic party or the country became majority Muslim in another fifty years or so? The demographics are pointing in that direction. Things change, they have already are are continuing to do so
    Also: that white Britons would become a minority in their own capital city. Ditto Manchester and other cities

    Unthinkable NF race-baiting 50 years ago. Now a fact
    We've already covered the White Britons in London ambiguity part extensively, though. White anglo/celts are probably a minority in London, whereas White Britons probably aren't, due to the government still not clarifying the census categories correctly.

    “In London, the 2021 UK Census showed that about 37% of Londoners identified as “White: English, Welsh, Scottish, Northern Irish or British” — that’s the classic “White British” category”

    And that is BEFORE the Boriswave. The percentage will be notably lower, now
    As we've discussed extensively on this, British is a civic category dating to 1707, not an ethnicity. A large number of white and British Londoners are not putting that on the census, because they think it means only english or celtic.
    What a load of obfuscating bollocks. We can only go by self ID. Unless you want to go out and do the pencil test on everyone

    In the 2021 census white Britons - self identified - constituted 37% of Londoners. And, given the speed of the fall since 1990 and the advent of the Boriswave, that number will be even lower now, and still falling

    It’s called “white flight”. It happened to American cities and now it’s happening - very fast - in European cities
    The composition of my house is 80% non white British and it's totally fine.
    The composition of my flat is 50% tabby.
    I should have included the cat, who is himself mixed white and tabby/tortoiseshell, a sad reflection of this hideous mongrel city. All the white British shorthair cats have moved to Kent.
    But the leopards have all been caught and made into jackets. :smile:



    (I have no idea what is wrong with the format pf that image file.)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,505

    MattW said:

    Sarah Mulally as next ABP. The Church Times is a good place to watch.

    The Church Times will have a lot of coverage from different angles, and you get two free articles a month with a free account, or it archives successfully.
    https://www.churchtimes.co.uk/

    Next week's letters page will also be one to look at for a range of thoughtful views.

    Also: "What lies ahead for the new Archbishop?" Podcast from 19/9.
    https://www.churchtimes.co.uk/articles/2025/19-september/audio-video/podcast/podcast-what-lies-ahead-for-the-next-archbishop-of-canterbury

    My calls:

    1 - Problems will be more international, rather than within the UK. There is potential for eg "Primus inter Pares" for the Anglican Communion to be split from "Archbishop of Canterbury" as a Via Media to keep the show on the road, or something similar.
    2 - One significant point will be about how marginal the story becomes across our media. If it is niche, that speaks to a marginalisation of the Church of England, and the Bishops in the Lords are at risk.
    3 - When listening to Justin Welby's poorly judged standing-down speech in the Lords (and I've generally been a fan on JW) she had a face like thunder throughout afaics, whilst the male Bishops sitting behind chuckled a little at his couple of quips. That is a positive indicator, perhaps.
    4 - Some have personal questions about her on things in London Diocese. I don't know enough to comment on how material these are.
    https://youtu.be/2Uerg54oTJQ?t=283

    Fundamentally, the problem the Church of England has is that it doesn't believe in itself.
    No, absolutely not. The C of E believes in its churches and cathedrals and the fantastic work its schools and foodbanks do and Mullally is someone who will be Parish focused.

    As established church it also rightly recognises it must be a voice for all of faith via its Bishops in the Lords and also having a woman as its leader and now blessings for same sex couples shows it is also able to move with the times and reflect the 21st century England of today
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,505

    MattW said:

    Sarah Mulally as next ABP. The Church Times is a good place to watch.

    The Church Times will have a lot of coverage from different angles, and you get two free articles a month with a free account, or it archives successfully.
    https://www.churchtimes.co.uk/

    Next week's letters page will also be one to look at for a range of thoughtful views.

    Also: "What lies ahead for the new Archbishop?" Podcast from 19/9.
    https://www.churchtimes.co.uk/articles/2025/19-september/audio-video/podcast/podcast-what-lies-ahead-for-the-next-archbishop-of-canterbury

    My calls:

    1 - Problems will be more international, rather than within the UK. There is potential for eg "Primus inter Pares" for the Anglican Communion to be split from "Archbishop of Canterbury" as a Via Media to keep the show on the road, or something similar.
    2 - One significant point will be about how marginal the story becomes across our media. If it is niche, that speaks to a marginalisation of the Church of England, and the Bishops in the Lords are at risk.
    3 - When listening to Justin Welby's poorly judged standing-down speech in the Lords (and I've generally been a fan on JW) she had a face like thunder throughout afaics, whilst the male Bishops sitting behind chuckled a little at his couple of quips. That is a positive indicator, perhaps.
    4 - Some have personal questions about her on things in London Diocese. I don't know enough to comment on how material these are.
    https://youtu.be/2Uerg54oTJQ?t=283

    Fundamentally, the problem the Church of England has is that it doesn't believe in itself.
    To be fair it is hard to retain self-confidence when so many people in Britain have turned away from it.
    46% still defined themselves as Christian on the last England and Wales census
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 45,408
    MattW said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    isam said:

    Leon said:

    Some bonkers comments on here last night, of which @Big_G_NorthWales was not one of them.

    "Antifa" is bonkers. Its an idea, not a terrorist organisation. I am antifa. But Big G is quoting someone important mentioning it - which makes it relevant to post on here.

    What else did we have. "every sane Patriotic Brit" have to vote for Farage - Mr Russia who went to American demanding economic sanctions on us.

    A "civil war" if Reform win the election or "eventual islamic takeover" if they don't. Riiiiiiiiight.

    This forum is a microcosm of the real world. We have representatives from most elements of real world politics. And we need to try switching off and back on again as everyone has lost it.

    Calm down. The “every sane patriotic Brit” remark was me having a giraffe. I know it winds up the Centrist Duds

    For a start, you could ALSO vote for Advance
    If you’d have suggested, fifty or sixty years ago, that London would have a Muslim mayor, entire neighbourhoods in big cities would be almost entirely Muslim, churches were disappearing but mosques were increasing, and there were half a dozen MPs elected solely on the back of a bloc of Islamic votes, they’d have called you an absolute loon who was scaremongering. And that’s not to mention 7/7, Lee Rigby, Manchester Arena etc

    But that is where we are, and it’s regarded as completely normal. Actually it’s considered offensive to criticise, or even to merely point it out.

    So why would it be odd if we were governed by an Islamic party or the country became majority Muslim in another fifty years or so? The demographics are pointing in that direction. Things change, they have already are are continuing to do so
    Also: that white Britons would become a minority in their own capital city. Ditto Manchester and other cities

    Unthinkable NF race-baiting 50 years ago. Now a fact
    We've already covered the White Britons in London ambiguity part extensively, though. White anglo/celts are probably a minority in London, whereas White Britons probably aren't, due to the government still not clarifying the census categories correctly.

    “In London, the 2021 UK Census showed that about 37% of Londoners identified as “White: English, Welsh, Scottish, Northern Irish or British” — that’s the classic “White British” category”

    And that is BEFORE the Boriswave. The percentage will be notably lower, now
    As we've discussed extensively on this, British is a civic category dating to 1707, not an ethnicity. A large number of white and British Londoners are not putting that on the census, because they think it means only english or celtic.
    What a load of obfuscating bollocks. We can only go by self ID. Unless you want to go out and do the pencil test on everyone

    In the 2021 census white Britons - self identified - constituted 37% of Londoners. And, given the speed of the fall since 1990 and the advent of the Boriswave, that number will be even lower now, and still falling

    It’s called “white flight”. It happened to American cities and now it’s happening - very fast - in European cities
    The composition of my house is 80% non white British and it's totally fine.
    The composition of my flat is 50% tabby.
    I should have included the cat, who is himself mixed white and tabby/tortoiseshell, a sad reflection of this hideous mongrel city. All the white British shorthair cats have moved to Kent.
    But the leopards have all been caught and made into jackets. :smile:


    Well, they did keep eating faces.
  • FossFoss Posts: 1,795

    Some footage of whatever it was that closed Munich airport, supposedly from a webcam there. Looks very large, whatever it is :

    https://x.com/wow36932525/status/1974045984582778959

    It's certainly there on the actual webcam: https://messe-muenchen.panomax.com?t=2025-10-02+22-20-00&r=28&z=357&tl=1035
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 10,818
    edited 12:18PM
    This one is even older. They were claimed to be flying from Belgium, and over the NATO base there, into Germany. If this one was the Russians, it require either a makeshift base in Belgium, or a ship in the Channel quite near here :

    https://x.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1974044828204749123
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,505
    edited 12:18PM

    isam said:

    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:

    Leon said:

    Some bonkers comments on here last night, of which @Big_G_NorthWales was not one of them.

    "Antifa" is bonkers. Its an idea, not a terrorist organisation. I am antifa. But Big G is quoting someone important mentioning it - which makes it relevant to post on here.

    What else did we have. "every sane Patriotic Brit" have to vote for Farage - Mr Russia who went to American demanding economic sanctions on us.

    A "civil war" if Reform win the election or "eventual islamic takeover" if they don't. Riiiiiiiiight.

    This forum is a microcosm of the real world. We have representatives from most elements of real world politics. And we need to try switching off and back on again as everyone has lost it.

    Calm down. The “every sane patriotic Brit” remark was me having a giraffe. I know it winds up the Centrist Duds

    For a start, you could ALSO vote for Advance
    If you’d have suggested, fifty or sixty years ago, that London would have a Muslim mayor, entire neighbourhoods in big cities would be almost entirely Muslim, churches were disappearing but mosques were increasing, and there were half a dozen MPs elected solely on the back of a bloc of Islamic votes, they’d have called you an absolute loon who was scaremongering. And that’s not to mention 7/7, Lee Rigby, Manchester Arena etc

    But that is where we are, and it’s regarded as completely normal. Actually it’s considered offensive to criticise, or even to merely point it out.

    So why would it be odd if we were governed by an Islamic party or the country became majority Muslim in another fifty years or so? The demographics are pointing in that direction. Things change, they have already are are continuing to do so
    I lived in Aldgate East in the last 1990s, which was 30 years ago, and had a Muslim landlord and all my neighbours were Muslims. Brick Lane and environs and all the areas heading towards Commercial Road and Commercial Street were all majority Muslim.

    I went to a school in Bedford from the 80s to the 90s (Biddenham), that was majority Muslim.

    The main thing I discovered from this is that Muslims (like Jews and atheists and Christians) are just like everybody else.

    Or, let me put it another way, I do wonder if you or @Lenon actually have any close Musliim friends? Because I think when we don't know people in a particular group well, we tend to assume that they are (a) much more homogenous than they are, and (b) that they are much more different to us than they are,
    I’m not criticising Muslims, saying they’re bad people/a bad religion, or anything negative, just saying what I think will happen based on what has happened and what I think will in the future based on my understanding of human behaviour. I don’t see that it matters whether I am friends with any Muslims or not but, even if I were, and they were just like everybody else , I still think we are eventually heading for an Islamic takeover of Britain. Actually you could argue that it’s because they’re just like everybody else that it is likely to happen.
    Personally I think the western lifestyle will eventually seduce them away from religion, as it has to the West. The UK is a Christian country in name only - most Brits are not actively religious (once a year at Christmas does not count).
    I think it's the social democratic lifestyle rather than the western lifestyle that is best at seducing people away from religion. Look at the contrast between the US and, say, Scandinavia, for example. People lose their religion when they are content; they get religious when they are struggling.
    Over 70% of Danes are members of the established Church of Denmark. Estonia for example is more atheist and has a flat tax of just 22%, lower even than the USA. Evangelical Christianity is growing in Communist China underground
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 88,116
    Did they ever get to the bottom of the stories of regular drone sightings on the East coast of the US?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 37,871
    HYUFD said:

    isam said:

    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:

    Leon said:

    Some bonkers comments on here last night, of which @Big_G_NorthWales was not one of them.

    "Antifa" is bonkers. Its an idea, not a terrorist organisation. I am antifa. But Big G is quoting someone important mentioning it - which makes it relevant to post on here.

    What else did we have. "every sane Patriotic Brit" have to vote for Farage - Mr Russia who went to American demanding economic sanctions on us.

    A "civil war" if Reform win the election or "eventual islamic takeover" if they don't. Riiiiiiiiight.

    This forum is a microcosm of the real world. We have representatives from most elements of real world politics. And we need to try switching off and back on again as everyone has lost it.

    Calm down. The “every sane patriotic Brit” remark was me having a giraffe. I know it winds up the Centrist Duds

    For a start, you could ALSO vote for Advance
    If you’d have suggested, fifty or sixty years ago, that London would have a Muslim mayor, entire neighbourhoods in big cities would be almost entirely Muslim, churches were disappearing but mosques were increasing, and there were half a dozen MPs elected solely on the back of a bloc of Islamic votes, they’d have called you an absolute loon who was scaremongering. And that’s not to mention 7/7, Lee Rigby, Manchester Arena etc

    But that is where we are, and it’s regarded as completely normal. Actually it’s considered offensive to criticise, or even to merely point it out.

    So why would it be odd if we were governed by an Islamic party or the country became majority Muslim in another fifty years or so? The demographics are pointing in that direction. Things change, they have already are are continuing to do so
    I lived in Aldgate East in the last 1990s, which was 30 years ago, and had a Muslim landlord and all my neighbours were Muslims. Brick Lane and environs and all the areas heading towards Commercial Road and Commercial Street were all majority Muslim.

    I went to a school in Bedford from the 80s to the 90s (Biddenham), that was majority Muslim.

    The main thing I discovered from this is that Muslims (like Jews and atheists and Christians) are just like everybody else.

    Or, let me put it another way, I do wonder if you or @Lenon actually have any close Musliim friends? Because I think when we don't know people in a particular group well, we tend to assume that they are (a) much more homogenous than they are, and (b) that they are much more different to us than they are,
    I’m not criticising Muslims, saying they’re bad people/a bad religion, or anything negative, just saying what I think will happen based on what has happened and what I think will in the future based on my understanding of human behaviour. I don’t see that it matters whether I am friends with any Muslims or not but, even if I were, and they were just like everybody else , I still think we are eventually heading for an Islamic takeover of Britain. Actually you could argue that it’s because they’re just like everybody else that it is likely to happen.
    Personally I think the western lifestyle will eventually seduce them away from religion, as it has to the West. The UK is a Christian country in name only - most Brits are not actively religious (once a year at Christmas does not count).
    I think it's the social democratic lifestyle rather than the western lifestyle that is best at seducing people away from religion. Look at the contrast between the US and, say, Scandinavia, for example. People lose their religion when they are content; they get religious when they are struggling.
    Over 70% of Danes are members of the established Church of Denmark. Estonia for example is more atheist and has a flat tax of just 22%, lower even than the USA
    Being a member of a church doesn't mean people are particularly religious, it's more of a social thing.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 20,519

    tlg86 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Ben Zaranko
    @BenZaranko

    There are some eye-popping stats in this new report from my @TheIFS colleagues.

    Here's just one: 10% of teenagers now receive child disability living allowance (CDLA), up from 5% a decade ago. Just a remarkable change.

    https://x.com/BenZaranko/status/1974040804386562488

    The three year old data is particularly worrying and is a bit of a canary in the coalmine that this is NOT a covid cohort phenomenon and will in fact be ongoing. Gov't needs to get a grip on this, badly.
    Ultimately this is about the normalisation of disability and the extension of what it means to be disabled. My students that have DAPs (disability action plans) most often are 'anxious' or 'stressed' or 'depressed'. Things that in previous times we accepted as part of life. Is it better or worse what we do now?
    Anxiety =/= disability. Not in my book anyway.
    I reckon I might have qualified for that as a kid. The problem I had was that the teachers wanted to add to my anxiety!
    I had asthma as a child/young teenager. I would have liked some sort of support, instead of abuse, especially for always being last in cross-country.
    I'd puff and pant my way to the half way rest-point, only to be told that there was no time for a rest; everyone else had been waiting for me.
    When I regularly led running groups I would always counter this. I'd set a regroup point and the expectation was that the quicker runners would arrive there, then turn around and run to the back of the group before heading to the regroup again. Worked a treat. Faster runners got more running, slower ones got a break.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 37,871

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    isam said:

    Leon said:

    Some bonkers comments on here last night, of which @Big_G_NorthWales was not one of them.

    "Antifa" is bonkers. Its an idea, not a terrorist organisation. I am antifa. But Big G is quoting someone important mentioning it - which makes it relevant to post on here.

    What else did we have. "every sane Patriotic Brit" have to vote for Farage - Mr Russia who went to American demanding economic sanctions on us.

    A "civil war" if Reform win the election or "eventual islamic takeover" if they don't. Riiiiiiiiight.

    This forum is a microcosm of the real world. We have representatives from most elements of real world politics. And we need to try switching off and back on again as everyone has lost it.

    Calm down. The “every sane patriotic Brit” remark was me having a giraffe. I know it winds up the Centrist Duds

    For a start, you could ALSO vote for Advance
    If you’d have suggested, fifty or sixty years ago, that London would have a Muslim mayor, entire neighbourhoods in big cities would be almost entirely Muslim, churches were disappearing but mosques were increasing, and there were half a dozen MPs elected solely on the back of a bloc of Islamic votes, they’d have called you an absolute loon who was scaremongering. And that’s not to mention 7/7, Lee Rigby, Manchester Arena etc

    But that is where we are, and it’s regarded as completely normal. Actually it’s considered offensive to criticise, or even to merely point it out.

    So why would it be odd if we were governed by an Islamic party or the country became majority Muslim in another fifty years or so? The demographics are pointing in that direction. Things change, they have already are are continuing to do so
    Also: that white Britons would become a minority in their own capital city. Ditto Manchester and other cities

    Unthinkable NF race-baiting 50 years ago. Now a fact
    We've already covered the White Britons in London ambiguity part extensively, though. White anglo/celts are probably a minority in London, whereas White Britons probably aren't, due to the government still not clarifying the census categories correctly.

    “In London, the 2021 UK Census showed that about 37% of Londoners identified as “White: English, Welsh, Scottish, Northern Irish or British” — that’s the classic “White British” category”

    And that is BEFORE the Boriswave. The percentage will be notably lower, now
    As we've discussed extensively on this, British is a civic category dating to 1707, not an ethnicity. A large number of white and British Londoners are not putting that on the census, because they think it means only english or celtic.
    What a load of obfuscating bollocks. We can only go by self ID. Unless you want to go out and do the pencil test on everyone

    In the 2021 census white Britons - self identified - constituted 37% of Londoners. And, given the speed of the fall since 1990 and the advent of the Boriswave, that number will be even lower now, and still falling

    It’s called “white flight”. It happened to American cities and now it’s happening - very fast - in European cities
    You need to clarify the categories first, before making the descriptions. In recent censuses, hundreds of thousands of people in London who are likely British citizens have put themselves down as "white irish", for instance.

    That's even before the huge number of Britons of Continental origin here, many of them born in Britain.
    My lad (born in Germany, identifies as White European) has just moved down to London from the Midlands. I've not been to London much, but I have to say it seems noticably more relaxed and friendly than I remember it being. For example, just minutes after we arrived and parked up with his stuff, my lad was unfortunately shat upon by a pigeon; a doorman at a nearby hotel noticed, and immediately ran inside to get a tissue for him. And since moving there he keeps getting offered free food by the market traders near his flat. So far so good!
    Yes, London can often be a great place. It's not the fearsome hellhole of Reform imagination.
    20% of Londoners are supporting Reform atm.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 10,818
    edited 12:22PM

    Did they ever get to the bottom of the stories of regular drone sightings on the East coast of the US?

    Nope, because the claimed testing of the U.S."s own security capabilities contradicted the warnings sent out by the head of a military base, and the head of one of the coastguard patrols.

    Could have been China, the U.S.'s own research, or anything.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 17,027
    HYUFD said:

    MattW said:

    Sarah Mulally as next ABP. The Church Times is a good place to watch.

    The Church Times will have a lot of coverage from different angles, and you get two free articles a month with a free account, or it archives successfully.
    https://www.churchtimes.co.uk/

    Next week's letters page will also be one to look at for a range of thoughtful views.

    Also: "What lies ahead for the new Archbishop?" Podcast from 19/9.
    https://www.churchtimes.co.uk/articles/2025/19-september/audio-video/podcast/podcast-what-lies-ahead-for-the-next-archbishop-of-canterbury

    My calls:

    1 - Problems will be more international, rather than within the UK. There is potential for eg "Primus inter Pares" for the Anglican Communion to be split from "Archbishop of Canterbury" as a Via Media to keep the show on the road, or something similar.
    2 - One significant point will be about how marginal the story becomes across our media. If it is niche, that speaks to a marginalisation of the Church of England, and the Bishops in the Lords are at risk.
    3 - When listening to Justin Welby's poorly judged standing-down speech in the Lords (and I've generally been a fan on JW) she had a face like thunder throughout afaics, whilst the male Bishops sitting behind chuckled a little at his couple of quips. That is a positive indicator, perhaps.
    4 - Some have personal questions about her on things in London Diocese. I don't know enough to comment on how material these are.
    https://youtu.be/2Uerg54oTJQ?t=283

    Fundamentally, the problem the Church of England has is that it doesn't believe in itself.
    No, absolutely not. The C of E believes in its churches and cathedrals and the fantastic work its schools and foodbanks do and Mullally is someone who will be Parish focused.

    As established church it also rightly recognises it must be a voice for all of faith via its Bishops in the Lords and also having a woman as its leader and now blessings for same sex couples shows it is also able to move with the times and reflect the 21st century England of today
    Our local CofE church is brilliant, really involved in the community and extremely welcoming to all its parishioners. The vicar is a great guy, too. I've attended two services this year and plenty of other events. I'm kind of a Christian athiest and probably spend more time in the church over the course of the year than a lot of Christians do!
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 20,329
    HYUFD said:

    MattW said:

    Sarah Mulally as next ABP. The Church Times is a good place to watch.

    The Church Times will have a lot of coverage from different angles, and you get two free articles a month with a free account, or it archives successfully.
    https://www.churchtimes.co.uk/

    Next week's letters page will also be one to look at for a range of thoughtful views.

    Also: "What lies ahead for the new Archbishop?" Podcast from 19/9.
    https://www.churchtimes.co.uk/articles/2025/19-september/audio-video/podcast/podcast-what-lies-ahead-for-the-next-archbishop-of-canterbury

    My calls:

    1 - Problems will be more international, rather than within the UK. There is potential for eg "Primus inter Pares" for the Anglican Communion to be split from "Archbishop of Canterbury" as a Via Media to keep the show on the road, or something similar.
    2 - One significant point will be about how marginal the story becomes across our media. If it is niche, that speaks to a marginalisation of the Church of England, and the Bishops in the Lords are at risk.
    3 - When listening to Justin Welby's poorly judged standing-down speech in the Lords (and I've generally been a fan on JW) she had a face like thunder throughout afaics, whilst the male Bishops sitting behind chuckled a little at his couple of quips. That is a positive indicator, perhaps.
    4 - Some have personal questions about her on things in London Diocese. I don't know enough to comment on how material these are.
    https://youtu.be/2Uerg54oTJQ?t=283

    Fundamentally, the problem the Church of England has is that it doesn't believe in itself.
    To be fair it is hard to retain self-confidence when so many people in Britain have turned away from it.
    46% still defined themselves as Christian on the last England and Wales census
    Yes. And perhaps the church would do better to follow your example and concentrate on that 46%, rather than worry overmuch about the 46% they've lost.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 45,024

    Pulpstar said:

    Ben Zaranko
    @BenZaranko

    There are some eye-popping stats in this new report from my @TheIFS colleagues.

    Here's just one: 10% of teenagers now receive child disability living allowance (CDLA), up from 5% a decade ago. Just a remarkable change.

    https://x.com/BenZaranko/status/1974040804386562488

    The three year old data is particularly worrying and is a bit of a canary in the coalmine that this is NOT a covid cohort phenomenon and will in fact be ongoing. Gov't needs to get a grip on this, badly.
    I suspect it’s driven by the increase in mental health claims
    It is driven by free largesse, amazed to hear you can self diagnos and claim benefits. Guy on LBC the other day , earning 65K a year and got 54K grant by self diagnosing an illness. magic money tree in place here right enough.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 17,027
    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    isam said:

    Leon said:

    Some bonkers comments on here last night, of which @Big_G_NorthWales was not one of them.

    "Antifa" is bonkers. Its an idea, not a terrorist organisation. I am antifa. But Big G is quoting someone important mentioning it - which makes it relevant to post on here.

    What else did we have. "every sane Patriotic Brit" have to vote for Farage - Mr Russia who went to American demanding economic sanctions on us.

    A "civil war" if Reform win the election or "eventual islamic takeover" if they don't. Riiiiiiiiight.

    This forum is a microcosm of the real world. We have representatives from most elements of real world politics. And we need to try switching off and back on again as everyone has lost it.

    Calm down. The “every sane patriotic Brit” remark was me having a giraffe. I know it winds up the Centrist Duds

    For a start, you could ALSO vote for Advance
    If you’d have suggested, fifty or sixty years ago, that London would have a Muslim mayor, entire neighbourhoods in big cities would be almost entirely Muslim, churches were disappearing but mosques were increasing, and there were half a dozen MPs elected solely on the back of a bloc of Islamic votes, they’d have called you an absolute loon who was scaremongering. And that’s not to mention 7/7, Lee Rigby, Manchester Arena etc

    But that is where we are, and it’s regarded as completely normal. Actually it’s considered offensive to criticise, or even to merely point it out.

    So why would it be odd if we were governed by an Islamic party or the country became majority Muslim in another fifty years or so? The demographics are pointing in that direction. Things change, they have already are are continuing to do so
    Also: that white Britons would become a minority in their own capital city. Ditto Manchester and other cities

    Unthinkable NF race-baiting 50 years ago. Now a fact
    We've already covered the White Britons in London ambiguity part extensively, though. White anglo/celts are probably a minority in London, whereas White Britons probably aren't, due to the government still not clarifying the census categories correctly.

    “In London, the 2021 UK Census showed that about 37% of Londoners identified as “White: English, Welsh, Scottish, Northern Irish or British” — that’s the classic “White British” category”

    And that is BEFORE the Boriswave. The percentage will be notably lower, now
    As we've discussed extensively on this, British is a civic category dating to 1707, not an ethnicity. A large number of white and British Londoners are not putting that on the census, because they think it means only english or celtic.
    What a load of obfuscating bollocks. We can only go by self ID. Unless you want to go out and do the pencil test on everyone

    In the 2021 census white Britons - self identified - constituted 37% of Londoners. And, given the speed of the fall since 1990 and the advent of the Boriswave, that number will be even lower now, and still falling

    It’s called “white flight”. It happened to American cities and now it’s happening - very fast - in European cities
    You need to clarify the categories first, before making the descriptions. In recent censuses, hundreds of thousands of people in London who are likely British citizens have put themselves down as "white irish", for instance.

    That's even before the huge number of Britons of Continental origin here, many of them born in Britain.
    My lad (born in Germany, identifies as White European) has just moved down to London from the Midlands. I've not been to London much, but I have to say it seems noticably more relaxed and friendly than I remember it being. For example, just minutes after we arrived and parked up with his stuff, my lad was unfortunately shat upon by a pigeon; a doorman at a nearby hotel noticed, and immediately ran inside to get a tissue for him. And since moving there he keeps getting offered free food by the market traders near his flat. So far so good!
    Yes, London can often be a great place. It's not the fearsome hellhole of Reform imagination.
    20% of Londoners are supporting Reform atm.
    A lot of people in outer London have the same view about inner London that a lot of non Londoners have about London. Personally I love all of London. Except the bits north of the river. And Croydon.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 56,023

    Did they ever get to the bottom of the stories of regular drone sightings on the East coast of the US?

    Nope, because the claimed testing of the U.S."s own security capabilities contradicted the warnings sent out by the head of a military base, and the head of one of the coastguard patrols.

    Could have been China, the U.S.'s own research, or anything.
    Bond baddie?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 33,143
    moonshine said:

    https://x.com/nigel_farage/status/1974050674980606056?s=46

    Farage pushing the “celebration of murder” narrative. Correctly I think.

    Leaving aside the message, Farage is good at this. He has a good voice, speaks fluently, addresses the camera. He does not use the modern walk, talk and point, which invariably leaves Jenrick or whoever looking like someone who has been told to walk, talk and point, while trying desperately to remember the script. Farage speaks – apparently – off the cuff.

    Dawn Butler is surprisingly good too.

    As for Farage's text, he is wrong in a couple of places, and inciteful sounds the same as insightful.

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,644
    edited 12:25PM
    HYUFD said:

    isam said:

    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:

    Leon said:

    Some bonkers comments on here last night, of which @Big_G_NorthWales was not one of them.

    "Antifa" is bonkers. Its an idea, not a terrorist organisation. I am antifa. But Big G is quoting someone important mentioning it - which makes it relevant to post on here.

    What else did we have. "every sane Patriotic Brit" have to vote for Farage - Mr Russia who went to American demanding economic sanctions on us.

    A "civil war" if Reform win the election or "eventual islamic takeover" if they don't. Riiiiiiiiight.

    This forum is a microcosm of the real world. We have representatives from most elements of real world politics. And we need to try switching off and back on again as everyone has lost it.

    Calm down. The “every sane patriotic Brit” remark was me having a giraffe. I know it winds up the Centrist Duds

    For a start, you could ALSO vote for Advance
    If you’d have suggested, fifty or sixty years ago, that London would have a Muslim mayor, entire neighbourhoods in big cities would be almost entirely Muslim, churches were disappearing but mosques were increasing, and there were half a dozen MPs elected solely on the back of a bloc of Islamic votes, they’d have called you an absolute loon who was scaremongering. And that’s not to mention 7/7, Lee Rigby, Manchester Arena etc

    But that is where we are, and it’s regarded as completely normal. Actually it’s considered offensive to criticise, or even to merely point it out.

    So why would it be odd if we were governed by an Islamic party or the country became majority Muslim in another fifty years or so? The demographics are pointing in that direction. Things change, they have already are are continuing to do so
    I lived in Aldgate East in the last 1990s, which was 30 years ago, and had a Muslim landlord and all my neighbours were Muslims. Brick Lane and environs and all the areas heading towards Commercial Road and Commercial Street were all majority Muslim.

    I went to a school in Bedford from the 80s to the 90s (Biddenham), that was majority Muslim.

    The main thing I discovered from this is that Muslims (like Jews and atheists and Christians) are just like everybody else.

    Or, let me put it another way, I do wonder if you or @Lenon actually have any close Musliim friends? Because I think when we don't know people in a particular group well, we tend to assume that they are (a) much more homogenous than they are, and (b) that they are much more different to us than they are,
    I’m not criticising Muslims, saying they’re bad people/a bad religion, or anything negative, just saying what I think will happen based on what has happened and what I think will in the future based on my understanding of human behaviour. I don’t see that it matters whether I am friends with any Muslims or not but, even if I were, and they were just like everybody else , I still think we are eventually heading for an Islamic takeover of Britain. Actually you could argue that it’s because they’re just like everybody else that it is likely to happen.
    Personally I think the western lifestyle will eventually seduce them away from religion, as it has to the West. The UK is a Christian country in name only - most Brits are not actively religious (once a year at Christmas does not count).
    I think it's the social democratic lifestyle rather than the western lifestyle that is best at seducing people away from religion. Look at the contrast between the US and, say, Scandinavia, for example. People lose their religion when they are content; they get religious when they are struggling.
    Over 70% of Danes are members of the established Church of Denmark. Estonia for example is more atheist and has a flat tax of just 22%, lower even than the USA. Evangelical Christianity is growing in Communist China underground
    People were inevitably more religious in pre-industrial societies. In such societies, famine, war, child mortality, assaults by robbers while travelling, were realities that made life precarious.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 45,024
    isam said:

    isam said:

    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:

    Leon said:

    Some bonkers comments on here last night, of which @Big_G_NorthWales was not one of them.

    "Antifa" is bonkers. Its an idea, not a terrorist organisation. I am antifa. But Big G is quoting someone important mentioning it - which makes it relevant to post on here.

    What else did we have. "every sane Patriotic Brit" have to vote for Farage - Mr Russia who went to American demanding economic sanctions on us.

    A "civil war" if Reform win the election or "eventual islamic takeover" if they don't. Riiiiiiiiight.

    This forum is a microcosm of the real world. We have representatives from most elements of real world politics. And we need to try switching off and back on again as everyone has lost it.

    Calm down. The “every sane patriotic Brit” remark was me having a giraffe. I know it winds up the Centrist Duds

    For a start, you could ALSO vote for Advance
    If you’d have suggested, fifty or sixty years ago, that London would have a Muslim mayor, entire neighbourhoods in big cities would be almost entirely Muslim, churches were disappearing but mosques were increasing, and there were half a dozen MPs elected solely on the back of a bloc of Islamic votes, they’d have called you an absolute loon who was scaremongering. And that’s not to mention 7/7, Lee Rigby, Manchester Arena etc

    But that is where we are, and it’s regarded as completely normal. Actually it’s considered offensive to criticise, or even to merely point it out.

    So why would it be odd if we were governed by an Islamic party or the country became majority Muslim in another fifty years or so? The demographics are pointing in that direction. Things change, they have already are are continuing to do so
    I lived in Aldgate East in the last 1990s, which was 30 years ago, and had a Muslim landlord and all my neighbours were Muslims. Brick Lane and environs and all the areas heading towards Commercial Road and Commercial Street were all majority Muslim.

    I went to a school in Bedford from the 80s to the 90s (Biddenham), that was majority Muslim.

    The main thing I discovered from this is that Muslims (like Jews and atheists and Christians) are just like everybody else.

    Or, let me put it another way, I do wonder if you or @Lenon actually have any close Musliim friends? Because I think when we don't know people in a particular group well, we tend to assume that they are (a) much more homogenous than they are, and (b) that they are much more different to us than they are,
    I’m not criticising Muslims, saying they’re bad people/a bad religion, or anything negative, just saying what I think will happen based on what has happened and what I think will in the future based on my understanding of human behaviour. I don’t see that it matters whether I am friends with any Muslims or not but, even if I were, and they were just like everybody else , I still think we are eventually heading for an Islamic takeover of Britain. Actually you could argue that it’s because they’re just like everybody else that it is likely to happen.
    Complete nonsense, isam. Stop reading far right propaganda.
    I don’t read far right propaganda, these are my own ideas. I don’t see why people get annoyed at me for it, I’m not saying anything horrible about anyone, just how I see things going
    It is happening as well , people can stick their heads in the sand but it is happening.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 16,355
    malcolmg said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Ben Zaranko
    @BenZaranko

    There are some eye-popping stats in this new report from my @TheIFS colleagues.

    Here's just one: 10% of teenagers now receive child disability living allowance (CDLA), up from 5% a decade ago. Just a remarkable change.

    https://x.com/BenZaranko/status/1974040804386562488

    The three year old data is particularly worrying and is a bit of a canary in the coalmine that this is NOT a covid cohort phenomenon and will in fact be ongoing. Gov't needs to get a grip on this, badly.
    I suspect it’s driven by the increase in mental health claims
    It is driven by free largesse, amazed to hear you can self diagnos and claim benefits. Guy on LBC the other day , earning 65K a year and got 54K grant by self diagnosing an illness. magic money tree in place here right enough.
    You can’t claim benefits merely on a self diagnosis.
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 1,650
    malcolmg said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Ben Zaranko
    @BenZaranko

    There are some eye-popping stats in this new report from my @TheIFS colleagues.

    Here's just one: 10% of teenagers now receive child disability living allowance (CDLA), up from 5% a decade ago. Just a remarkable change.

    https://x.com/BenZaranko/status/1974040804386562488

    The three year old data is particularly worrying and is a bit of a canary in the coalmine that this is NOT a covid cohort phenomenon and will in fact be ongoing. Gov't needs to get a grip on this, badly.
    I suspect it’s driven by the increase in mental health claims
    It is driven by free largesse, amazed to hear you can self diagnos and claim benefits. Guy on LBC the other day , earning 65K a year and got 54K grant by self diagnosing an illness. magic money tree in place here right enough.
    I was tempted to disagree with you but don't know if you have any experience in this area. So as I don't know the depth of your experience and whether than experience leads you to your conclusion, I'll stop right here.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 33,143
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    Battlebus said:

    Good morning. The ghouls were out last night and it's not even Halloween. Wonder when we are going to read about someone being radicalised by PB?

    Back on subject and looking at the forecast for my own 'safe' Tory seat which is supposed to go Reform. Knowing the local Reform people (ex-UKIP) they just don't have the skills to run a council given the level of issues to be dealt with locally. Scale that up to Westminster and if Reform do get in, then unless there is something like the Heritage Foundation or some well-financed Think Tank, then it will be more of a disaster than the previous 3 governments.

    One can only hope there will be more defections of skilled and capable politicians to Reform before 2029 cos a Reform government won't be pretty.

    I am in one of the seats showing conservative on this MRP, with Reform a close second. My Tory MP is one of the relatively sane ones, but there is no way that I would tactically vote for them when Jenrick will be running on the same platform as Reform.
    If Kemi is replaced next year it will be Cleverly who replaces her by coronation as Tory MPs elected Howard by coronation to succeed IDS in 2003 and Sunak by coronation to replace Truss in 2022.

    Tory voters who stayed loyal in 2024 and all voters prefer Cleverly too polls show, only Reform voters prefer Jenrick. Even Tory members rejected Jenrick last year
    The best chance the Tories have is to select a leader who looks "prime ministerial" and is able to attract Reform-defectors who are queasy about the prospect of Nige in Downing Street. May also help with the fight with the LibDems. Cleverly appears the only option so far as I can see and, let's face it, he would have won the top job if the Tory MP's hadn't screwed up the leadership election. I think he must still feel in the game, as he accepted a job in the shadow cabinet (much like Howard becoming Shadow Chancellor under IDS when he might have reasonably retired).

    There was some talk downstream about the SDP. Worth remembering that they brought to the party some serious politicians with cabinet experience - Jenkins, Owen, Williams plus several more competent juniors. So far, Reform has only Farage, who is no-one's idea of a competent man of government. And as for his followers - don't ask.

    Whatever happen, Reform will prove short-lived. They either fail to maintain momentum, don't win the election, and then disappear when Farage steps down, and the Tories recover. Or else, they win, form a Government, and collapse under the pressure of office and events. Just imagine what a Reform-majority parliamentary party would look like. "Strong and stable"?
    I suspect if Cleverley is not leader by conference next year he will be unveiled as London Mayor candidate.
    From what I hear the Tory establishment are already plotting to make Cleverly party leader and Seb Coe London Mayoral candidate by conference next year
    If Seb Coe is the answer, you've been listening to William Hague. Coe is well into his bus pass years in any case. (Wasn't Coe's mum Indian, now you mention him?)
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 10,818
    edited 12:31PM

    Did they ever get to the bottom of the stories of regular drone sightings on the East coast of the US?

    Nope, because the claimed testing of the U.S."s own security capabilities contradicted the warnings sent out by the head of a military base, and the head of one of the coastguard patrols.

    Could have been China, the U.S.'s own research, or anything.
    Bond baddie?
    Could be. And who could be launching drones from Belgium to Germany yesterday I have no idea. That's not even coming from the East, let alone clearly Russia.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 53,044
    HYUFD said:

    MattW said:

    Sarah Mulally as next ABP. The Church Times is a good place to watch.

    The Church Times will have a lot of coverage from different angles, and you get two free articles a month with a free account, or it archives successfully.
    https://www.churchtimes.co.uk/

    Next week's letters page will also be one to look at for a range of thoughtful views.

    Also: "What lies ahead for the new Archbishop?" Podcast from 19/9.
    https://www.churchtimes.co.uk/articles/2025/19-september/audio-video/podcast/podcast-what-lies-ahead-for-the-next-archbishop-of-canterbury

    My calls:

    1 - Problems will be more international, rather than within the UK. There is potential for eg "Primus inter Pares" for the Anglican Communion to be split from "Archbishop of Canterbury" as a Via Media to keep the show on the road, or something similar.
    2 - One significant point will be about how marginal the story becomes across our media. If it is niche, that speaks to a marginalisation of the Church of England, and the Bishops in the Lords are at risk.
    3 - When listening to Justin Welby's poorly judged standing-down speech in the Lords (and I've generally been a fan on JW) she had a face like thunder throughout afaics, whilst the male Bishops sitting behind chuckled a little at his couple of quips. That is a positive indicator, perhaps.
    4 - Some have personal questions about her on things in London Diocese. I don't know enough to comment on how material these are.
    https://youtu.be/2Uerg54oTJQ?t=283

    Fundamentally, the problem the Church of England has is that it doesn't believe in itself.
    To be fair it is hard to retain self-confidence when so many people in Britain have turned away from it.
    46% still defined themselves as Christian on the last England and Wales census
    Down 13% in ten years - so we’re probably down near 40%, by now.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 47,586

    Did they ever get to the bottom of the stories of regular drone sightings on the East coast of the US?

    Nope, because the claimed testing of the U.S."s own security capabilities contradicted the warnings sent out by the head of a military base, and the head of one of the coastguard patrols.

    Could have been China, the U.S.'s own research, or anything.
    Bond baddie?
    Could be. And who could be launching drones from Belgium to Germany yesterday I have no idea. That's not even coming from East, let alone clearly Russia.
    Russia (and I daresay China) have been using agents within western countries to commit various bits of trouble. Often coopting organised crime in those countries. What they want is disruption, and preferably deniable disruption.

    Or it could just be idiots doing it for LOLs, having seen it on the news.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 20,519

    Drones now detected over the Belgian NATO base in Eisenborn, and Munich.

    The very, very sparse infirmation as to what these actually are, combined with their supposedly extremely advanced capabilities, is beginning to remind me of the New Jersey drones flap.

    Yes, as in once a flap gets going people get sucked in.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,349
    Sean_F said:

    Many thanks for all the best wishes. I lost my footing on Glastonbury Tor, broke four ribs, and hit my head.

    I was taken to Yeovil Hospital who failed to diagnose the broken ribs, and refused a CT scan. My wife drove me back to Luton, by which time I had agonising stomach pains (thankfully not due to organ damage, and early stage pneumonia). L & D dosed me with painkillers and antibiotics, and did the CT scan, which revealed the broken ribs, but thankfully, no brain damage. They’ll do a form of surgery that causes the ribs to heal more rapidly than usual. The Luton staff were appalled by Yeovil’s behaviour.


    Best wishes for a speedy recovery, sorry to read that Yeovil Hospital provided sub par diagnosis and treatment.

  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 33,143

    Did they ever get to the bottom of the stories of regular drone sightings on the East coast of the US?

    Nope, because the claimed testing of the U.S."s own security capabilities contradicted the warnings sent out by the head of a military base, and the head of one of the coastguard patrols.

    Could have been China, the U.S.'s own research, or anything.
    Bond baddie?
    Could be. And who could be launching drones from Belgium to Germany yesterday I have no idea. That's not even coming from the East, let alone clearly Russia.
    As posted earlier in this thread:-

    Tracked: Russia’s drone mothership causing mayhem around Europe
    Tanker seized off France is believed to have been used for ‘hybrid war’ attacks in Denmark and Germany

    A Russian shadow-fleet ship raided by the French authorities could be linked to nine drone attacks on European airports and other infrastructure.

    The Boracay, an 18-year-old tanker, left Russia on Sept 20 and sailed through the Baltic, where a string of mysterious swarms of drones were launched over the past two weeks.

    A Telegraph analysis of tracking data puts the ship at the scene of the unexplained drone incursions, which Western leaders have warned are part of Moscow’s hybrid war against Nato and its allies.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2025/10/02/russian-ship-linked-to-drone-attacks/ (£££)
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 20,519

    Did they ever get to the bottom of the stories of regular drone sightings on the East coast of the US?

    Nope, because the claimed testing of the U.S."s own security capabilities contradicted the warnings sent out by the head of a military base, and the head of one of the coastguard patrols.

    Could have been China, the U.S.'s own research, or anything.
    Its was nothing. Misidentification then huge flap of people seeing planes.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 20,329
    Russia's oil and gas revenue reported as down 25% in September compared to a year earlier. This is Ukraine's kinetic sanctions in action.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,505
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    MattW said:

    Sarah Mulally as next ABP. The Church Times is a good place to watch.

    The Church Times will have a lot of coverage from different angles, and you get two free articles a month with a free account, or it archives successfully.
    https://www.churchtimes.co.uk/

    Next week's letters page will also be one to look at for a range of thoughtful views.

    Also: "What lies ahead for the new Archbishop?" Podcast from 19/9.
    https://www.churchtimes.co.uk/articles/2025/19-september/audio-video/podcast/podcast-what-lies-ahead-for-the-next-archbishop-of-canterbury

    My calls:

    1 - Problems will be more international, rather than within the UK. There is potential for eg "Primus inter Pares" for the Anglican Communion to be split from "Archbishop of Canterbury" as a Via Media to keep the show on the road, or something similar.
    2 - One significant point will be about how marginal the story becomes across our media. If it is niche, that speaks to a marginalisation of the Church of England, and the Bishops in the Lords are at risk.
    3 - When listening to Justin Welby's poorly judged standing-down speech in the Lords (and I've generally been a fan on JW) she had a face like thunder throughout afaics, whilst the male Bishops sitting behind chuckled a little at his couple of quips. That is a positive indicator, perhaps.
    4 - Some have personal questions about her on things in London Diocese. I don't know enough to comment on how material these are.
    https://youtu.be/2Uerg54oTJQ?t=283

    Fundamentally, the problem the Church of England has is that it doesn't believe in itself.
    To be fair it is hard to retain self-confidence when so many people in Britain have turned away from it.
    46% still defined themselves as Christian on the last England and Wales census
    Down 13% in ten years - so we’re probably down near 40%, by now.
    So still ahead of the 36% irreligious. Fastest growing by birthrate in the UK are Muslims followed by evangelical Christians and Catholics too
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 47,586

    Did they ever get to the bottom of the stories of regular drone sightings on the East coast of the US?

    Nope, because the claimed testing of the U.S."s own security capabilities contradicted the warnings sent out by the head of a military base, and the head of one of the coastguard patrols.

    Could have been China, the U.S.'s own research, or anything.
    Its was nothing. Misidentification then huge flap of people seeing planes.
    Like the big balloon flap a few years ago. One Chinese balloon flew over the USA; they altered the radar to more easily detect them, and suddenly there were loads of weird and wonderful spurious contacts thrown up.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,505

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    Battlebus said:

    Good morning. The ghouls were out last night and it's not even Halloween. Wonder when we are going to read about someone being radicalised by PB?

    Back on subject and looking at the forecast for my own 'safe' Tory seat which is supposed to go Reform. Knowing the local Reform people (ex-UKIP) they just don't have the skills to run a council given the level of issues to be dealt with locally. Scale that up to Westminster and if Reform do get in, then unless there is something like the Heritage Foundation or some well-financed Think Tank, then it will be more of a disaster than the previous 3 governments.

    One can only hope there will be more defections of skilled and capable politicians to Reform before 2029 cos a Reform government won't be pretty.

    I am in one of the seats showing conservative on this MRP, with Reform a close second. My Tory MP is one of the relatively sane ones, but there is no way that I would tactically vote for them when Jenrick will be running on the same platform as Reform.
    If Kemi is replaced next year it will be Cleverly who replaces her by coronation as Tory MPs elected Howard by coronation to succeed IDS in 2003 and Sunak by coronation to replace Truss in 2022.

    Tory voters who stayed loyal in 2024 and all voters prefer Cleverly too polls show, only Reform voters prefer Jenrick. Even Tory members rejected Jenrick last year
    The best chance the Tories have is to select a leader who looks "prime ministerial" and is able to attract Reform-defectors who are queasy about the prospect of Nige in Downing Street. May also help with the fight with the LibDems. Cleverly appears the only option so far as I can see and, let's face it, he would have won the top job if the Tory MP's hadn't screwed up the leadership election. I think he must still feel in the game, as he accepted a job in the shadow cabinet (much like Howard becoming Shadow Chancellor under IDS when he might have reasonably retired).

    There was some talk downstream about the SDP. Worth remembering that they brought to the party some serious politicians with cabinet experience - Jenkins, Owen, Williams plus several more competent juniors. So far, Reform has only Farage, who is no-one's idea of a competent man of government. And as for his followers - don't ask.

    Whatever happen, Reform will prove short-lived. They either fail to maintain momentum, don't win the election, and then disappear when Farage steps down, and the Tories recover. Or else, they win, form a Government, and collapse under the pressure of office and events. Just imagine what a Reform-majority parliamentary party would look like. "Strong and stable"?
    I suspect if Cleverley is not leader by conference next year he will be unveiled as London Mayor candidate.
    From what I hear the Tory establishment are already plotting to make Cleverly party leader and Seb Coe London Mayoral candidate by conference next year
    If Seb Coe is the answer, you've been listening to William Hague. Coe is well into his bus pass years in any case. (Wasn't Coe's mum Indian, now you mention him?)
    Coe could beat Khan with LD and Reform preferences and has name recognition from London 2012 he ran
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 7,306

    malcolmg said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Ben Zaranko
    @BenZaranko

    There are some eye-popping stats in this new report from my @TheIFS colleagues.

    Here's just one: 10% of teenagers now receive child disability living allowance (CDLA), up from 5% a decade ago. Just a remarkable change.

    https://x.com/BenZaranko/status/1974040804386562488

    The three year old data is particularly worrying and is a bit of a canary in the coalmine that this is NOT a covid cohort phenomenon and will in fact be ongoing. Gov't needs to get a grip on this, badly.
    I suspect it’s driven by the increase in mental health claims
    It is driven by free largesse, amazed to hear you can self diagnos and claim benefits. Guy on LBC the other day , earning 65K a year and got 54K grant by self diagnosing an illness. magic money tree in place here right enough.
    You can’t claim benefits merely on a self diagnosis.
    No, for PIP or DLA you need to pass the assessment. But you don't need a formal diagnosis.

    For UC on health grounds you initially need a doctor's fitnote, but they often merely describe the symptoms.

    PIP, DLA and WCA assessments are supposed to be based on how your condition affects you, you don't actually need a diagnosis
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 10,818
    edited 12:46PM

    Did they ever get to the bottom of the stories of regular drone sightings on the East coast of the US?

    Nope, because the claimed testing of the U.S."s own security capabilities contradicted the warnings sent out by the head of a military base, and the head of one of the coastguard patrols.

    Could have been China, the U.S.'s own research, or anything.
    Bond baddie?
    Could be. And who could be launching drones from Belgium to Germany yesterday I have no idea. That's not even coming from the East, let alone clearly Russia.
    As posted earlier in this thread:-

    Tracked: Russia’s drone mothership causing mayhem around Europe
    Tanker seized off France is believed to have been used for ‘hybrid war’ attacks in Denmark and Germany

    A Russian shadow-fleet ship raided by the French authorities could be linked to nine drone attacks on European airports and other infrastructure.

    The Boracay, an 18-year-old tanker, left Russia on Sept 20 and sailed through the Baltic, where a string of mysterious swarms of drones were launched over the past two weeks.

    A Telegraph analysis of tracking data puts the ship at the scene of the unexplained drone incursions, which Western leaders have warned are part of Moscow’s hybrid war against Nato and its allies.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2025/10/02/russian-ship-linked-to-drone-attacks/ (£££)
    Indeed, but yesterday's one was from central Belgium into Germany. That would seem to require a sea launching all the way across almost to the Channel, or in Belgium or France.

    There might be several different things going on here, with several different actors.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 20,519

    Did they ever get to the bottom of the stories of regular drone sightings on the East coast of the US?

    Nope, because the claimed testing of the U.S."s own security capabilities contradicted the warnings sent out by the head of a military base, and the head of one of the coastguard patrols.

    Could have been China, the U.S.'s own research, or anything.
    Bond baddie?
    Could be. And who could be launching drones from Belgium to Germany yesterday I have no idea. That's not even coming from the East, let alone clearly Russia.
    As posted earlier in this thread:-

    Tracked: Russia’s drone mothership causing mayhem around Europe
    Tanker seized off France is believed to have been used for ‘hybrid war’ attacks in Denmark and Germany

    A Russian shadow-fleet ship raided by the French authorities could be linked to nine drone attacks on European airports and other infrastructure.

    The Boracay, an 18-year-old tanker, left Russia on Sept 20 and sailed through the Baltic, where a string of mysterious swarms of drones were launched over the past two weeks.

    A Telegraph analysis of tracking data puts the ship at the scene of the unexplained drone incursions, which Western leaders have warned are part of Moscow’s hybrid war against Nato and its allies.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2025/10/02/russian-ship-linked-to-drone-attacks/ (£££)
    Indeed, but yesterday's one was from central Belgium into Germany. That would seem.to require a sea launching all the across almost to the Channel, or in Belgium or France.

    There might be several different things going on, here.
    Or quite simply - contagion. Yet again.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,505
    edited 12:43PM
    Sean_F said:

    HYUFD said:

    isam said:

    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:

    Leon said:

    Some bonkers comments on here last night, of which @Big_G_NorthWales was not one of them.

    "Antifa" is bonkers. Its an idea, not a terrorist organisation. I am antifa. But Big G is quoting someone important mentioning it - which makes it relevant to post on here.

    What else did we have. "every sane Patriotic Brit" have to vote for Farage - Mr Russia who went to American demanding economic sanctions on us.

    A "civil war" if Reform win the election or "eventual islamic takeover" if they don't. Riiiiiiiiight.

    This forum is a microcosm of the real world. We have representatives from most elements of real world politics. And we need to try switching off and back on again as everyone has lost it.

    Calm down. The “every sane patriotic Brit” remark was me having a giraffe. I know it winds up the Centrist Duds

    For a start, you could ALSO vote for Advance
    If you’d have suggested, fifty or sixty years ago, that London would have a Muslim mayor, entire neighbourhoods in big cities would be almost entirely Muslim, churches were disappearing but mosques were increasing, and there were half a dozen MPs elected solely on the back of a bloc of Islamic votes, they’d have called you an absolute loon who was scaremongering. And that’s not to mention 7/7, Lee Rigby, Manchester Arena etc

    But that is where we are, and it’s regarded as completely normal. Actually it’s considered offensive to criticise, or even to merely point it out.

    So why would it be odd if we were governed by an Islamic party or the country became majority Muslim in another fifty years or so? The demographics are pointing in that direction. Things change, they have already are are continuing to do so
    I lived in Aldgate East in the last 1990s, which was 30 years ago, and had a Muslim landlord and all my neighbours were Muslims. Brick Lane and environs and all the areas heading towards Commercial Road and Commercial Street were all majority Muslim.

    I went to a school in Bedford from the 80s to the 90s (Biddenham), that was majority Muslim.

    The main thing I discovered from this is that Muslims (like Jews and atheists and Christians) are just like everybody else.

    Or, let me put it another way, I do wonder if you or @Lenon actually have any close Musliim friends? Because I think when we don't know people in a particular group well, we tend to assume that they are (a) much more homogenous than they are, and (b) that they are much more different to us than they are,
    I’m not criticising Muslims, saying they’re bad people/a bad religion, or anything negative, just saying what I think will happen based on what has happened and what I think will in the future based on my understanding of human behaviour. I don’t see that it matters whether I am friends with any Muslims or not but, even if I were, and they were just like everybody else , I still think we are eventually heading for an Islamic takeover of Britain. Actually you could argue that it’s because they’re just like everybody else that it is likely to happen.
    Personally I think the western lifestyle will eventually seduce them away from religion, as it has to the West. The UK is a Christian country in name only - most Brits are not actively religious (once a year at Christmas does not count).
    I think it's the social democratic lifestyle rather than the western lifestyle that is best at seducing people away from religion. Look at the contrast between the US and, say, Scandinavia, for example. People lose their religion when they are content; they get religious when they are struggling.
    Over 70% of Danes are members of the established Church of Denmark. Estonia for example is more atheist and has a flat tax of just 22%, lower even than the USA. Evangelical Christianity is growing in Communist China underground
    People were inevitably more religious in pre-industrial societies. In such societies, famine, war, child mortality, assaults by robbers while travelling, were realities that made life precarious.
    To an extent but the British Isles were pagan originally. Of course we are seeing somewhat of an increase in church attendance here now as AI and globalisation and limited wage rises for most and automation of jobs and fears over immigration and crime and terrorism and war in Europe lead to a Britain less contented with itself than any time over the last 100 years.

    See also the Christian nationalism on display at the 100,000 strong Unite The Kingdom rally (albeit partly an anti Islam stance from them)
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 16,355

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    Battlebus said:

    Good morning. The ghouls were out last night and it's not even Halloween. Wonder when we are going to read about someone being radicalised by PB?

    Back on subject and looking at the forecast for my own 'safe' Tory seat which is supposed to go Reform. Knowing the local Reform people (ex-UKIP) they just don't have the skills to run a council given the level of issues to be dealt with locally. Scale that up to Westminster and if Reform do get in, then unless there is something like the Heritage Foundation or some well-financed Think Tank, then it will be more of a disaster than the previous 3 governments.

    One can only hope there will be more defections of skilled and capable politicians to Reform before 2029 cos a Reform government won't be pretty.

    I am in one of the seats showing conservative on this MRP, with Reform a close second. My Tory MP is one of the relatively sane ones, but there is no way that I would tactically vote for them when Jenrick will be running on the same platform as Reform.
    If Kemi is replaced next year it will be Cleverly who replaces her by coronation as Tory MPs elected Howard by coronation to succeed IDS in 2003 and Sunak by coronation to replace Truss in 2022.

    Tory voters who stayed loyal in 2024 and all voters prefer Cleverly too polls show, only Reform voters prefer Jenrick. Even Tory members rejected Jenrick last year
    The best chance the Tories have is to select a leader who looks "prime ministerial" and is able to attract Reform-defectors who are queasy about the prospect of Nige in Downing Street. May also help with the fight with the LibDems. Cleverly appears the only option so far as I can see and, let's face it, he would have won the top job if the Tory MP's hadn't screwed up the leadership election. I think he must still feel in the game, as he accepted a job in the shadow cabinet (much like Howard becoming Shadow Chancellor under IDS when he might have reasonably retired).

    There was some talk downstream about the SDP. Worth remembering that they brought to the party some serious politicians with cabinet experience - Jenkins, Owen, Williams plus several more competent juniors. So far, Reform has only Farage, who is no-one's idea of a competent man of government. And as for his followers - don't ask.

    Whatever happen, Reform will prove short-lived. They either fail to maintain momentum, don't win the election, and then disappear when Farage steps down, and the Tories recover. Or else, they win, form a Government, and collapse under the pressure of office and events. Just imagine what a Reform-majority parliamentary party would look like. "Strong and stable"?
    I suspect if Cleverley is not leader by conference next year he will be unveiled as London Mayor candidate.
    From what I hear the Tory establishment are already plotting to make Cleverly party leader and Seb Coe London Mayoral candidate by conference next year
    If Seb Coe is the answer, you've been listening to William Hague. Coe is well into his bus pass years in any case. (Wasn't Coe's mum Indian, now you mention him?)
    His Mum was half-Indian and a bit Irish, so he’s certainly not White British enough for some posters here.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,627
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    Battlebus said:

    Good morning. The ghouls were out last night and it's not even Halloween. Wonder when we are going to read about someone being radicalised by PB?

    Back on subject and looking at the forecast for my own 'safe' Tory seat which is supposed to go Reform. Knowing the local Reform people (ex-UKIP) they just don't have the skills to run a council given the level of issues to be dealt with locally. Scale that up to Westminster and if Reform do get in, then unless there is something like the Heritage Foundation or some well-financed Think Tank, then it will be more of a disaster than the previous 3 governments.

    One can only hope there will be more defections of skilled and capable politicians to Reform before 2029 cos a Reform government won't be pretty.

    I am in one of the seats showing conservative on this MRP, with Reform a close second. My Tory MP is one of the relatively sane ones, but there is no way that I would tactically vote for them when Jenrick will be running on the same platform as Reform.
    If Kemi is replaced next year it will be Cleverly who replaces her by coronation as Tory MPs elected Howard by coronation to succeed IDS in 2003 and Sunak by coronation to replace Truss in 2022.

    Tory voters who stayed loyal in 2024 and all voters prefer Cleverly too polls show, only Reform voters prefer Jenrick. Even Tory members rejected Jenrick last year
    The best chance the Tories have is to select a leader who looks "prime ministerial" and is able to attract Reform-defectors who are queasy about the prospect of Nige in Downing Street. May also help with the fight with the LibDems. Cleverly appears the only option so far as I can see and, let's face it, he would have won the top job if the Tory MP's hadn't screwed up the leadership election. I think he must still feel in the game, as he accepted a job in the shadow cabinet (much like Howard becoming Shadow Chancellor under IDS when he might have reasonably retired).

    There was some talk downstream about the SDP. Worth remembering that they brought to the party some serious politicians with cabinet experience - Jenkins, Owen, Williams plus several more competent juniors. So far, Reform has only Farage, who is no-one's idea of a competent man of government. And as for his followers - don't ask.

    Whatever happen, Reform will prove short-lived. They either fail to maintain momentum, don't win the election, and then disappear when Farage steps down, and the Tories recover. Or else, they win, form a Government, and collapse under the pressure of office and events. Just imagine what a Reform-majority parliamentary party would look like. "Strong and stable"?
    I suspect if Cleverley is not leader by conference next year he will be unveiled as London Mayor candidate.
    From what I hear the Tory establishment are already plotting to make Cleverly party leader and Seb Coe London Mayoral candidate by conference next year
    If Seb Coe is the answer, you've been listening to William Hague. Coe is well into his bus pass years in any case. (Wasn't Coe's mum Indian, now you mention him?)
    Coe could beat Khan with LD and Reform preferences and has name recognition from London 2012 he ran
    Khan has an extremely high meh vote.

    Coe could beat him, but he’d need to run semi-independently from the Tory brand which remains largely toxic in London.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 30,137
    edited 12:49PM
    HYUFD said:

    isam said:

    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:

    Leon said:

    Some bonkers comments on here last night, of which @Big_G_NorthWales was not one of them.

    "Antifa" is bonkers. Its an idea, not a terrorist organisation. I am antifa. But Big G is quoting someone important mentioning it - which makes it relevant to post on here.

    What else did we have. "every sane Patriotic Brit" have to vote for Farage - Mr Russia who went to American demanding economic sanctions on us.

    A "civil war" if Reform win the election or "eventual islamic takeover" if they don't. Riiiiiiiiight.

    This forum is a microcosm of the real world. We have representatives from most elements of real world politics. And we need to try switching off and back on again as everyone has lost it.

    Calm down. The “every sane patriotic Brit” remark was me having a giraffe. I know it winds up the Centrist Duds

    For a start, you could ALSO vote for Advance
    If you’d have suggested, fifty or sixty years ago, that London would have a Muslim mayor, entire neighbourhoods in big cities would be almost entirely Muslim, churches were disappearing but mosques were increasing, and there were half a dozen MPs elected solely on the back of a bloc of Islamic votes, they’d have called you an absolute loon who was scaremongering. And that’s not to mention 7/7, Lee Rigby, Manchester Arena etc

    But that is where we are, and it’s regarded as completely normal. Actually it’s considered offensive to criticise, or even to merely point it out.

    So why would it be odd if we were governed by an Islamic party or the country became majority Muslim in another fifty years or so? The demographics are pointing in that direction. Things change, they have already are are continuing to do so
    I lived in Aldgate East in the last 1990s, which was 30 years ago, and had a Muslim landlord and all my neighbours were Muslims. Brick Lane and environs and all the areas heading towards Commercial Road and Commercial Street were all majority Muslim.

    I went to a school in Bedford from the 80s to the 90s (Biddenham), that was majority Muslim.

    The main thing I discovered from this is that Muslims (like Jews and atheists and Christians) are just like everybody else.

    Or, let me put it another way, I do wonder if you or @Lenon actually have any close Musliim friends? Because I think when we don't know people in a particular group well, we tend to assume that they are (a) much more homogenous than they are, and (b) that they are much more different to us than they are,
    I’m not criticising Muslims, saying they’re bad people/a bad religion, or anything negative, just saying what I think will happen based on what has happened and what I think will in the future based on my understanding of human behaviour. I don’t see that it matters whether I am friends with any Muslims or not but, even if I were, and they were just like everybody else , I still think we are eventually heading for an Islamic takeover of Britain. Actually you could argue that it’s because they’re just like everybody else that it is likely to happen.
    Personally I think the western lifestyle will eventually seduce them away from religion, as it has to the West. The UK is a Christian country in name only - most Brits are not actively religious (once a year at Christmas does not count).
    I think it's the social democratic lifestyle rather than the western lifestyle that is best at seducing people away from religion. Look at the contrast between the US and, say, Scandinavia, for example. People lose their religion when they are content; they get religious when they are struggling.
    Over 70% of Danes are members of the established Church of Denmark. Estonia for example is more atheist and has a flat tax of just 22%, lower even than the USA. Evangelical Christianity is growing in Communist China underground
    Finland is also interesting, in that 60%+ are members of the established church, the Evangelical Lutheran Church of Finland. Plus 2^+% to the other established church, which is Orthodox.

    I have no idea where the ELCF fits in the ecclesiological zoo, beyond Lutheran doctrinal bases and catechisms, but it also has a tradition of Revivalism - mainly an evangelical thing, and was fertile ground for charismatic renewal.

    Maintaining a high membership when there is a "church tax" (see Germany) in Finland is interesting, but perhaps there are qualities around "centre of national values" type factors in a frontline state.

    I'm sure @Leon can inform us on the propensity of Finnish ladies to indulge the desires of international hairy-hedonists-with-a-patter who claim that they are rich, especially with books with "ice" in the title.

    I can tell you about winter cycling in Finland, and how the city of Oulu, 50km south of the arctic circle, is a stock answer to anyone whining about cycling in the UK in winter being "impossible". Oulu modal share in winter by cycle = 12% .
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/future/article/20231220-why-oulu-finland-is-the-winter-cycling-capital-of-the-world
  • boulayboulay Posts: 7,524
    Leon said:

    Crivvens, can PBers stop falling over?!

    Get Well Soon and Deep Sympathies to

    @JosiasJessop
    @boulay

    and especially

    @Sean_F who appears to have had a narrow escape from the jaws of demise

    *group hug*

    Ha thanks but I don’t deserve any sympathy as absolutely self inflicted due to a bonkers amount of champagne and then white wine which never does me any good. I have no recollection of what happened but the A&E doc said it looked like I had been hit in the legs by a car!

    So I’m paying a price for my own foolishness. Seriously painful knee they thought was broken but luckily not and the other is just horribly painful. Trying to piece together the evening from payments but big blanks.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 37,871
    edited 12:47PM
    The problem with PBers is that most of us are not as young as we were 15 years ago when we started posting. 🙂
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 7,333

    malcolmg said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Ben Zaranko
    @BenZaranko

    There are some eye-popping stats in this new report from my @TheIFS colleagues.

    Here's just one: 10% of teenagers now receive child disability living allowance (CDLA), up from 5% a decade ago. Just a remarkable change.

    https://x.com/BenZaranko/status/1974040804386562488

    The three year old data is particularly worrying and is a bit of a canary in the coalmine that this is NOT a covid cohort phenomenon and will in fact be ongoing. Gov't needs to get a grip on this, badly.
    I suspect it’s driven by the increase in mental health claims
    It is driven by free largesse, amazed to hear you can self diagnos and claim benefits. Guy on LBC the other day , earning 65K a year and got 54K grant by self diagnosing an illness. magic money tree in place here right enough.
    You can’t claim benefits merely on a self diagnosis.
    You can, however, hire a private doctor/psychologist who will write pretty much what they are asked to after an online consultation. Which amounts to the same thing.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 53,044
    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    MattW said:

    Sarah Mulally as next ABP. The Church Times is a good place to watch.

    The Church Times will have a lot of coverage from different angles, and you get two free articles a month with a free account, or it archives successfully.
    https://www.churchtimes.co.uk/

    Next week's letters page will also be one to look at for a range of thoughtful views.

    Also: "What lies ahead for the new Archbishop?" Podcast from 19/9.
    https://www.churchtimes.co.uk/articles/2025/19-september/audio-video/podcast/podcast-what-lies-ahead-for-the-next-archbishop-of-canterbury

    My calls:

    1 - Problems will be more international, rather than within the UK. There is potential for eg "Primus inter Pares" for the Anglican Communion to be split from "Archbishop of Canterbury" as a Via Media to keep the show on the road, or something similar.
    2 - One significant point will be about how marginal the story becomes across our media. If it is niche, that speaks to a marginalisation of the Church of England, and the Bishops in the Lords are at risk.
    3 - When listening to Justin Welby's poorly judged standing-down speech in the Lords (and I've generally been a fan on JW) she had a face like thunder throughout afaics, whilst the male Bishops sitting behind chuckled a little at his couple of quips. That is a positive indicator, perhaps.
    4 - Some have personal questions about her on things in London Diocese. I don't know enough to comment on how material these are.
    https://youtu.be/2Uerg54oTJQ?t=283

    Fundamentally, the problem the Church of England has is that it doesn't believe in itself.
    To be fair it is hard to retain self-confidence when so many people in Britain have turned away from it.
    46% still defined themselves as Christian on the last England and Wales census
    Down 13% in ten years - so we’re probably down near 40%, by now.
    So still ahead of the 36% irreligious. Fastest growing by birthrate in the UK are Muslims followed by evangelical Christians and Catholics too
    Up 12% in ten years, so probably up near 41-42% by now
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,627

    The clip I saw of Mahmood interviewed by the BBC this morning was very good. I am starting to see what some PBers have already said about her. She feels like a more solid media performer than many in Labour, and someone who comes across in a relatively straightforward way. I can now see why she is being talked up as a potential successor.

    She’s been impressive.
    I’d recommend she move on from the weird Darth Vader hairdo, though.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,627
    Andy_JS said:

    The problem with PBers is that most of us are not as young as we were 15 years ago when we started posting. 🙂

    Whatever happened to that Scottish poster who claimed to be about 100.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,505
    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    MattW said:

    Sarah Mulally as next ABP. The Church Times is a good place to watch.

    The Church Times will have a lot of coverage from different angles, and you get two free articles a month with a free account, or it archives successfully.
    https://www.churchtimes.co.uk/

    Next week's letters page will also be one to look at for a range of thoughtful views.

    Also: "What lies ahead for the new Archbishop?" Podcast from 19/9.
    https://www.churchtimes.co.uk/articles/2025/19-september/audio-video/podcast/podcast-what-lies-ahead-for-the-next-archbishop-of-canterbury

    My calls:

    1 - Problems will be more international, rather than within the UK. There is potential for eg "Primus inter Pares" for the Anglican Communion to be split from "Archbishop of Canterbury" as a Via Media to keep the show on the road, or something similar.
    2 - One significant point will be about how marginal the story becomes across our media. If it is niche, that speaks to a marginalisation of the Church of England, and the Bishops in the Lords are at risk.
    3 - When listening to Justin Welby's poorly judged standing-down speech in the Lords (and I've generally been a fan on JW) she had a face like thunder throughout afaics, whilst the male Bishops sitting behind chuckled a little at his couple of quips. That is a positive indicator, perhaps.
    4 - Some have personal questions about her on things in London Diocese. I don't know enough to comment on how material these are.
    https://youtu.be/2Uerg54oTJQ?t=283

    Fundamentally, the problem the Church of England has is that it doesn't believe in itself.
    To be fair it is hard to retain self-confidence when so many people in Britain have turned away from it.
    46% still defined themselves as Christian on the last England and Wales census
    Down 13% in ten years - so we’re probably down near 40%, by now.
    So still ahead of the 36% irreligious. Fastest growing by birthrate in the UK are Muslims followed by evangelical Christians and Catholics too
    Up 12% in ten years, so probably up near 41-42% by now
    So still miles off a majority and with Christian Nationalism and Islam both on the rise
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 47,586
    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:

    Leon said:

    Some bonkers comments on here last night, of which @Big_G_NorthWales was not one of them.

    "Antifa" is bonkers. Its an idea, not a terrorist organisation. I am antifa. But Big G is quoting someone important mentioning it - which makes it relevant to post on here.

    What else did we have. "every sane Patriotic Brit" have to vote for Farage - Mr Russia who went to American demanding economic sanctions on us.

    A "civil war" if Reform win the election or "eventual islamic takeover" if they don't. Riiiiiiiiight.

    This forum is a microcosm of the real world. We have representatives from most elements of real world politics. And we need to try switching off and back on again as everyone has lost it.

    Calm down. The “every sane patriotic Brit” remark was me having a giraffe. I know it winds up the Centrist Duds

    For a start, you could ALSO vote for Advance
    If you’d have suggested, fifty or sixty years ago, that London would have a Muslim mayor, entire neighbourhoods in big cities would be almost entirely Muslim, churches were disappearing but mosques were increasing, and there were half a dozen MPs elected solely on the back of a bloc of Islamic votes, they’d have called you an absolute loon who was scaremongering. And that’s not to mention 7/7, Lee Rigby, Manchester Arena etc

    But that is where we are, and it’s regarded as completely normal. Actually it’s considered offensive to criticise, or even to merely point it out.

    So why would it be odd if we were governed by an Islamic party or the country became majority Muslim in another fifty years or so? The demographics are pointing in that direction. Things change, they have already are are continuing to do so
    I lived in Aldgate East in the last 1990s, which was 30 years ago, and had a Muslim landlord and all my neighbours were Muslims. Brick Lane and environs and all the areas heading towards Commercial Road and Commercial Street were all majority Muslim.

    I went to a school in Bedford from the 80s to the 90s (Biddenham), that was majority Muslim.

    The main thing I discovered from this is that Muslims (like Jews and atheists and Christians) are just like everybody else.

    Or, let me put it another way, I do wonder if you or @Lenon actually have any close Musliim friends? Because I think when we don't know people in a particular group well, we tend to assume that they are (a) much more homogenous than they are, and (b) that they are much more different to us than they are,
    I agree with the sentiment, but with one caveat:

    My wife is Turkish. Consequently, I know a fair few Turks in this country, and they are all very pleasant. Mrs J is very middle class (in fact, upper middle class by Turkish standards), and she points out that all the family and friends that I meet have a similar background. Whereas her relatives in the Turkish countryside tend to be a little more conservative and religious, sometimes with a different worldview. You have to be careful of the situation Rory Stewart warned about in Afghanistan (*): too many people were going into the cities, seeing people like them, and thought the whole country was like them. It wasn't, which was why the Taliban won.

    It's dangerous to assume that everyone who is of a religion is the same, just as it is dangerous to assume that everyone who is from the same country is the same. And the people you meet might not be typical, because you get to meet them.

    (*) And then fell for himself in the last presidential election...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,505
    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    isam said:

    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:

    Leon said:

    Some bonkers comments on here last night, of which @Big_G_NorthWales was not one of them.

    "Antifa" is bonkers. Its an idea, not a terrorist organisation. I am antifa. But Big G is quoting someone important mentioning it - which makes it relevant to post on here.

    What else did we have. "every sane Patriotic Brit" have to vote for Farage - Mr Russia who went to American demanding economic sanctions on us.

    A "civil war" if Reform win the election or "eventual islamic takeover" if they don't. Riiiiiiiiight.

    This forum is a microcosm of the real world. We have representatives from most elements of real world politics. And we need to try switching off and back on again as everyone has lost it.

    Calm down. The “every sane patriotic Brit” remark was me having a giraffe. I know it winds up the Centrist Duds

    For a start, you could ALSO vote for Advance
    If you’d have suggested, fifty or sixty years ago, that London would have a Muslim mayor, entire neighbourhoods in big cities would be almost entirely Muslim, churches were disappearing but mosques were increasing, and there were half a dozen MPs elected solely on the back of a bloc of Islamic votes, they’d have called you an absolute loon who was scaremongering. And that’s not to mention 7/7, Lee Rigby, Manchester Arena etc

    But that is where we are, and it’s regarded as completely normal. Actually it’s considered offensive to criticise, or even to merely point it out.

    So why would it be odd if we were governed by an Islamic party or the country became majority Muslim in another fifty years or so? The demographics are pointing in that direction. Things change, they have already are are continuing to do so
    I lived in Aldgate East in the last 1990s, which was 30 years ago, and had a Muslim landlord and all my neighbours were Muslims. Brick Lane and environs and all the areas heading towards Commercial Road and Commercial Street were all majority Muslim.

    I went to a school in Bedford from the 80s to the 90s (Biddenham), that was majority Muslim.

    The main thing I discovered from this is that Muslims (like Jews and atheists and Christians) are just like everybody else.

    Or, let me put it another way, I do wonder if you or @Lenon actually have any close Musliim friends? Because I think when we don't know people in a particular group well, we tend to assume that they are (a) much more homogenous than they are, and (b) that they are much more different to us than they are,
    I’m not criticising Muslims, saying they’re bad people/a bad religion, or anything negative, just saying what I think will happen based on what has happened and what I think will in the future based on my understanding of human behaviour. I don’t see that it matters whether I am friends with any Muslims or not but, even if I were, and they were just like everybody else , I still think we are eventually heading for an Islamic takeover of Britain. Actually you could argue that it’s because they’re just like everybody else that it is likely to happen.
    Personally I think the western lifestyle will eventually seduce them away from religion, as it has to the West. The UK is a Christian country in name only - most Brits are not actively religious (once a year at Christmas does not count).
    I think it's the social democratic lifestyle rather than the western lifestyle that is best at seducing people away from religion. Look at the contrast between the US and, say, Scandinavia, for example. People lose their religion when they are content; they get religious when they are struggling.
    Over 70% of Danes are members of the established Church of Denmark. Estonia for example is more atheist and has a flat tax of just 22%, lower even than the USA. Evangelical Christianity is growing in Communist China underground
    Finland is also interesting, in that 60%+ are members of the established church, the Evangelical Lutheran Church of Finland. Plus 2^+% to the other established church, which is Orthodox.

    I have no idea where the ELCF fits in the ecclesiological zoo, beyond Lutheran doctrinal bases and catechisms, but it also has a tradition of Revivalism - mainly an evangelical thing, and was fertile ground for charismatic renewal.

    Maintaining a high membership when there is a "church tax" (see Germany) in Finland is interesting, but perhaps there are qualities around "centre of national values" type factors in a frontline state.

    I'm sure @Leon can inform us on the propensity of Finnish ladies to indulge the desires of international hairy-hedonists-with-a-patter who claim that they are rich, especially with books with "ice" in the title.

    I can tell you about winter cycling in Finland, and how the city of Oulu, 50km south of the arctic circle, is a stock answer to anyone whining about cycling in the UK in winter being "impossible". Oulu modal share in winter by cycle = 12% .
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/future/article/20231220-why-oulu-finland-is-the-winter-cycling-capital-of-the-world
    Finland doesn't have an established church but yes good points otherwise
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,505

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    Battlebus said:

    Good morning. The ghouls were out last night and it's not even Halloween. Wonder when we are going to read about someone being radicalised by PB?

    Back on subject and looking at the forecast for my own 'safe' Tory seat which is supposed to go Reform. Knowing the local Reform people (ex-UKIP) they just don't have the skills to run a council given the level of issues to be dealt with locally. Scale that up to Westminster and if Reform do get in, then unless there is something like the Heritage Foundation or some well-financed Think Tank, then it will be more of a disaster than the previous 3 governments.

    One can only hope there will be more defections of skilled and capable politicians to Reform before 2029 cos a Reform government won't be pretty.

    I am in one of the seats showing conservative on this MRP, with Reform a close second. My Tory MP is one of the relatively sane ones, but there is no way that I would tactically vote for them when Jenrick will be running on the same platform as Reform.
    If Kemi is replaced next year it will be Cleverly who replaces her by coronation as Tory MPs elected Howard by coronation to succeed IDS in 2003 and Sunak by coronation to replace Truss in 2022.

    Tory voters who stayed loyal in 2024 and all voters prefer Cleverly too polls show, only Reform voters prefer Jenrick. Even Tory members rejected Jenrick last year
    The best chance the Tories have is to select a leader who looks "prime ministerial" and is able to attract Reform-defectors who are queasy about the prospect of Nige in Downing Street. May also help with the fight with the LibDems. Cleverly appears the only option so far as I can see and, let's face it, he would have won the top job if the Tory MP's hadn't screwed up the leadership election. I think he must still feel in the game, as he accepted a job in the shadow cabinet (much like Howard becoming Shadow Chancellor under IDS when he might have reasonably retired).

    There was some talk downstream about the SDP. Worth remembering that they brought to the party some serious politicians with cabinet experience - Jenkins, Owen, Williams plus several more competent juniors. So far, Reform has only Farage, who is no-one's idea of a competent man of government. And as for his followers - don't ask.

    Whatever happen, Reform will prove short-lived. They either fail to maintain momentum, don't win the election, and then disappear when Farage steps down, and the Tories recover. Or else, they win, form a Government, and collapse under the pressure of office and events. Just imagine what a Reform-majority parliamentary party would look like. "Strong and stable"?
    I suspect if Cleverley is not leader by conference next year he will be unveiled as London Mayor candidate.
    From what I hear the Tory establishment are already plotting to make Cleverly party leader and Seb Coe London Mayoral candidate by conference next year
    If Seb Coe is the answer, you've been listening to William Hague. Coe is well into his bus pass years in any case. (Wasn't Coe's mum Indian, now you mention him?)
    Coe could beat Khan with LD and Reform preferences and has name recognition from London 2012 he ran
    Khan has an extremely high meh vote.

    Coe could beat him, but he’d need to run semi-independently from the Tory brand which remains largely toxic in London.
    The Tory brand is less toxic in London now, the toxic brand there unlike the rest of the UK is Reform
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 10,818
    edited 12:55PM

    Did they ever get to the bottom of the stories of regular drone sightings on the East coast of the US?

    Nope, because the claimed testing of the U.S."s own security capabilities contradicted the warnings sent out by the head of a military base, and the head of one of the coastguard patrols.

    Could have been China, the U.S.'s own research, or anything.
    Bond baddie?
    Could be. And who could be launching drones from Belgium to Germany yesterday I have no idea. That's not even coming from the East, let alone clearly Russia.
    As posted earlier in this thread:-

    Tracked: Russia’s drone mothership causing mayhem around Europe
    Tanker seized off France is believed to have been used for ‘hybrid war’ attacks in Denmark and Germany

    A Russian shadow-fleet ship raided by the French authorities could be linked to nine drone attacks on European airports and other infrastructure.

    The Boracay, an 18-year-old tanker, left Russia on Sept 20 and sailed through the Baltic, where a string of mysterious swarms of drones were launched over the past two weeks.

    A Telegraph analysis of tracking data puts the ship at the scene of the unexplained drone incursions, which Western leaders have warned are part of Moscow’s hybrid war against Nato and its allies.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2025/10/02/russian-ship-linked-to-drone-attacks/ (£££)
    Indeed, but yesterday's one was from central Belgium into Germany. That would seem.to require a sea launching all the across almost to the Channel, or in Belgium or France.

    There might be several different things going on, here.
    Or quite simply - contagion. Yet again.
    The Belgian one was picked by a new military anti-drone system that was just being installed at the Eisenborn air Base.

    One would have thought that the civilian airport ones might be the more likely candidates for hysteria, although several of those seem to have been picked up from control towers, too. All getting curiouser and curiouser again.

  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,627
    edited 12:51PM

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    Battlebus said:

    Good morning. The ghouls were out last night and it's not even Halloween. Wonder when we are going to read about someone being radicalised by PB?

    Back on subject and looking at the forecast for my own 'safe' Tory seat which is supposed to go Reform. Knowing the local Reform people (ex-UKIP) they just don't have the skills to run a council given the level of issues to be dealt with locally. Scale that up to Westminster and if Reform do get in, then unless there is something like the Heritage Foundation or some well-financed Think Tank, then it will be more of a disaster than the previous 3 governments.

    One can only hope there will be more defections of skilled and capable politicians to Reform before 2029 cos a Reform government won't be pretty.

    I am in one of the seats showing conservative on this MRP, with Reform a close second. My Tory MP is one of the relatively sane ones, but there is no way that I would tactically vote for them when Jenrick will be running on the same platform as Reform.
    If Kemi is replaced next year it will be Cleverly who replaces her by coronation as Tory MPs elected Howard by coronation to succeed IDS in 2003 and Sunak by coronation to replace Truss in 2022.

    Tory voters who stayed loyal in 2024 and all voters prefer Cleverly too polls show, only Reform voters prefer Jenrick. Even Tory members rejected Jenrick last year
    The best chance the Tories have is to select a leader who looks "prime ministerial" and is able to attract Reform-defectors who are queasy about the prospect of Nige in Downing Street. May also help with the fight with the LibDems. Cleverly appears the only option so far as I can see and, let's face it, he would have won the top job if the Tory MP's hadn't screwed up the leadership election. I think he must still feel in the game, as he accepted a job in the shadow cabinet (much like Howard becoming Shadow Chancellor under IDS when he might have reasonably retired).

    There was some talk downstream about the SDP. Worth remembering that they brought to the party some serious politicians with cabinet experience - Jenkins, Owen, Williams plus several more competent juniors. So far, Reform has only Farage, who is no-one's idea of a competent man of government. And as for his followers - don't ask.

    Whatever happen, Reform will prove short-lived. They either fail to maintain momentum, don't win the election, and then disappear when Farage steps down, and the Tories recover. Or else, they win, form a Government, and collapse under the pressure of office and events. Just imagine what a Reform-majority parliamentary party would look like. "Strong and stable"?
    I suspect if Cleverley is not leader by conference next year he will be unveiled as London Mayor candidate.
    From what I hear the Tory establishment are already plotting to make Cleverly party leader and Seb Coe London Mayoral candidate by conference next year
    If Seb Coe is the answer, you've been listening to William Hague. Coe is well into his bus pass years in any case. (Wasn't Coe's mum Indian, now you mention him?)
    His Mum was half-Indian and a bit Irish, so he’s certainly not White British enough for some posters here.
    That’s interesting, I never knew that.
    But doesn’t it also give the likes of Isam reason to hope that the future *isn’t* some kind of caliphate?

    I doubt there’s many who are come across as English as Seb Coe.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 47,586
    Leon said:

    Crivvens, can PBers stop falling over?!

    Get Well Soon and Deep Sympathies to

    @JosiasJessop
    @boulay

    and especially

    @Sean_F who appears to have had a narrow escape from the jaws of demise

    *group hug*

    Thanks, though in my case it's nothing serious. It's actually a really annoying injury: I can swim, run and bike with the injury, but it is painful, and my physio (I think wisely) has said that I need to stop until we get to the bottom of what the problem is. It's annoying knowing I *could* do the exercise, but I should not.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 33,143
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    Battlebus said:

    Good morning. The ghouls were out last night and it's not even Halloween. Wonder when we are going to read about someone being radicalised by PB?

    Back on subject and looking at the forecast for my own 'safe' Tory seat which is supposed to go Reform. Knowing the local Reform people (ex-UKIP) they just don't have the skills to run a council given the level of issues to be dealt with locally. Scale that up to Westminster and if Reform do get in, then unless there is something like the Heritage Foundation or some well-financed Think Tank, then it will be more of a disaster than the previous 3 governments.

    One can only hope there will be more defections of skilled and capable politicians to Reform before 2029 cos a Reform government won't be pretty.

    I am in one of the seats showing conservative on this MRP, with Reform a close second. My Tory MP is one of the relatively sane ones, but there is no way that I would tactically vote for them when Jenrick will be running on the same platform as Reform.
    If Kemi is replaced next year it will be Cleverly who replaces her by coronation as Tory MPs elected Howard by coronation to succeed IDS in 2003 and Sunak by coronation to replace Truss in 2022.

    Tory voters who stayed loyal in 2024 and all voters prefer Cleverly too polls show, only Reform voters prefer Jenrick. Even Tory members rejected Jenrick last year
    The best chance the Tories have is to select a leader who looks "prime ministerial" and is able to attract Reform-defectors who are queasy about the prospect of Nige in Downing Street. May also help with the fight with the LibDems. Cleverly appears the only option so far as I can see and, let's face it, he would have won the top job if the Tory MP's hadn't screwed up the leadership election. I think he must still feel in the game, as he accepted a job in the shadow cabinet (much like Howard becoming Shadow Chancellor under IDS when he might have reasonably retired).

    There was some talk downstream about the SDP. Worth remembering that they brought to the party some serious politicians with cabinet experience - Jenkins, Owen, Williams plus several more competent juniors. So far, Reform has only Farage, who is no-one's idea of a competent man of government. And as for his followers - don't ask.

    Whatever happen, Reform will prove short-lived. They either fail to maintain momentum, don't win the election, and then disappear when Farage steps down, and the Tories recover. Or else, they win, form a Government, and collapse under the pressure of office and events. Just imagine what a Reform-majority parliamentary party would look like. "Strong and stable"?
    I suspect if Cleverley is not leader by conference next year he will be unveiled as London Mayor candidate.
    From what I hear the Tory establishment are already plotting to make Cleverly party leader and Seb Coe London Mayoral candidate by conference next year
    If Seb Coe is the answer, you've been listening to William Hague. Coe is well into his bus pass years in any case. (Wasn't Coe's mum Indian, now you mention him?)
    Coe could beat Khan with LD and Reform preferences and has name recognition from London 2012 he ran
    FPTP now so would need tactical votes rather than second preferences.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 10,818

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    Battlebus said:

    Good morning. The ghouls were out last night and it's not even Halloween. Wonder when we are going to read about someone being radicalised by PB?

    Back on subject and looking at the forecast for my own 'safe' Tory seat which is supposed to go Reform. Knowing the local Reform people (ex-UKIP) they just don't have the skills to run a council given the level of issues to be dealt with locally. Scale that up to Westminster and if Reform do get in, then unless there is something like the Heritage Foundation or some well-financed Think Tank, then it will be more of a disaster than the previous 3 governments.

    One can only hope there will be more defections of skilled and capable politicians to Reform before 2029 cos a Reform government won't be pretty.

    I am in one of the seats showing conservative on this MRP, with Reform a close second. My Tory MP is one of the relatively sane ones, but there is no way that I would tactically vote for them when Jenrick will be running on the same platform as Reform.
    If Kemi is replaced next year it will be Cleverly who replaces her by coronation as Tory MPs elected Howard by coronation to succeed IDS in 2003 and Sunak by coronation to replace Truss in 2022.

    Tory voters who stayed loyal in 2024 and all voters prefer Cleverly too polls show, only Reform voters prefer Jenrick. Even Tory members rejected Jenrick last year
    The best chance the Tories have is to select a leader who looks "prime ministerial" and is able to attract Reform-defectors who are queasy about the prospect of Nige in Downing Street. May also help with the fight with the LibDems. Cleverly appears the only option so far as I can see and, let's face it, he would have won the top job if the Tory MP's hadn't screwed up the leadership election. I think he must still feel in the game, as he accepted a job in the shadow cabinet (much like Howard becoming Shadow Chancellor under IDS when he might have reasonably retired).

    There was some talk downstream about the SDP. Worth remembering that they brought to the party some serious politicians with cabinet experience - Jenkins, Owen, Williams plus several more competent juniors. So far, Reform has only Farage, who is no-one's idea of a competent man of government. And as for his followers - don't ask.

    Whatever happen, Reform will prove short-lived. They either fail to maintain momentum, don't win the election, and then disappear when Farage steps down, and the Tories recover. Or else, they win, form a Government, and collapse under the pressure of office and events. Just imagine what a Reform-majority parliamentary party would look like. "Strong and stable"?
    I suspect if Cleverley is not leader by conference next year he will be unveiled as London Mayor candidate.
    From what I hear the Tory establishment are already plotting to make Cleverly party leader and Seb Coe London Mayoral candidate by conference next year
    If Seb Coe is the answer, you've been listening to William Hague. Coe is well into his bus pass years in any case. (Wasn't Coe's mum Indian, now you mention him?)
    His Mum was half-Indian and a bit Irish, so he’s certainly not White British enough for some posters here.
    That’s interesting, I never knew that.
    But doesn’t it also give the likes of Isam reason to hope that the future *isn’t* some kind of caliphate?

    I doubt there’s many who are come across as English as Seb Coe.
    Cliff Richard is another not that well-known anglo-indian one.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 37,871
    New leader of the Greens: "Political class poisoned by extreme wealth". BBC.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,627

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    Battlebus said:

    Good morning. The ghouls were out last night and it's not even Halloween. Wonder when we are going to read about someone being radicalised by PB?

    Back on subject and looking at the forecast for my own 'safe' Tory seat which is supposed to go Reform. Knowing the local Reform people (ex-UKIP) they just don't have the skills to run a council given the level of issues to be dealt with locally. Scale that up to Westminster and if Reform do get in, then unless there is something like the Heritage Foundation or some well-financed Think Tank, then it will be more of a disaster than the previous 3 governments.

    One can only hope there will be more defections of skilled and capable politicians to Reform before 2029 cos a Reform government won't be pretty.

    I am in one of the seats showing conservative on this MRP, with Reform a close second. My Tory MP is one of the relatively sane ones, but there is no way that I would tactically vote for them when Jenrick will be running on the same platform as Reform.
    If Kemi is replaced next year it will be Cleverly who replaces her by coronation as Tory MPs elected Howard by coronation to succeed IDS in 2003 and Sunak by coronation to replace Truss in 2022.

    Tory voters who stayed loyal in 2024 and all voters prefer Cleverly too polls show, only Reform voters prefer Jenrick. Even Tory members rejected Jenrick last year
    The best chance the Tories have is to select a leader who looks "prime ministerial" and is able to attract Reform-defectors who are queasy about the prospect of Nige in Downing Street. May also help with the fight with the LibDems. Cleverly appears the only option so far as I can see and, let's face it, he would have won the top job if the Tory MP's hadn't screwed up the leadership election. I think he must still feel in the game, as he accepted a job in the shadow cabinet (much like Howard becoming Shadow Chancellor under IDS when he might have reasonably retired).

    There was some talk downstream about the SDP. Worth remembering that they brought to the party some serious politicians with cabinet experience - Jenkins, Owen, Williams plus several more competent juniors. So far, Reform has only Farage, who is no-one's idea of a competent man of government. And as for his followers - don't ask.

    Whatever happen, Reform will prove short-lived. They either fail to maintain momentum, don't win the election, and then disappear when Farage steps down, and the Tories recover. Or else, they win, form a Government, and collapse under the pressure of office and events. Just imagine what a Reform-majority parliamentary party would look like. "Strong and stable"?
    I suspect if Cleverley is not leader by conference next year he will be unveiled as London Mayor candidate.
    From what I hear the Tory establishment are already plotting to make Cleverly party leader and Seb Coe London Mayoral candidate by conference next year
    If Seb Coe is the answer, you've been listening to William Hague. Coe is well into his bus pass years in any case. (Wasn't Coe's mum Indian, now you mention him?)
    His Mum was half-Indian and a bit Irish, so he’s certainly not White British enough for some posters here.
    That’s interesting, I never knew that.
    But doesn’t it also give the likes of Isam reason to hope that the future *isn’t* some kind of caliphate?

    I doubt there’s many who are come across as English as Seb Coe.
    Cliff Richard is another not that well-known anglo-indian one.
    I am Anglo-Indian myself. Or, perhaps, my father is.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 20,519

    Did they ever get to the bottom of the stories of regular drone sightings on the East coast of the US?

    Nope, because the claimed testing of the U.S."s own security capabilities contradicted the warnings sent out by the head of a military base, and the head of one of the coastguard patrols.

    Could have been China, the U.S.'s own research, or anything.
    Bond baddie?
    Could be. And who could be launching drones from Belgium to Germany yesterday I have no idea. That's not even coming from the East, let alone clearly Russia.
    As posted earlier in this thread:-

    Tracked: Russia’s drone mothership causing mayhem around Europe
    Tanker seized off France is believed to have been used for ‘hybrid war’ attacks in Denmark and Germany

    A Russian shadow-fleet ship raided by the French authorities could be linked to nine drone attacks on European airports and other infrastructure.

    The Boracay, an 18-year-old tanker, left Russia on Sept 20 and sailed through the Baltic, where a string of mysterious swarms of drones were launched over the past two weeks.

    A Telegraph analysis of tracking data puts the ship at the scene of the unexplained drone incursions, which Western leaders have warned are part of Moscow’s hybrid war against Nato and its allies.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2025/10/02/russian-ship-linked-to-drone-attacks/ (£££)
    Indeed, but yesterday's one was from central Belgium into Germany. That would seem.to require a sea launching all the across almost to the Channel, or in Belgium or France.

    There might be several different things going on, here.
    Or quite simply - contagion. Yet again.
    The Belgian one was picked by a new military anti-drone system that's just been installed at the Eisenborn air Base.

    One would have thought that the civilian airport ones might be the more likely candidates for hysteria, although several of those seem to have been picked up from control towers.

    "The Belgian one" - could just be the Belgian "something" until an actual drone is recovered. Things in the sky (at night, usually) are notoriously hard to pin down. I know Mick West was all over the Danish flap suggesting many, many sightings were planes.
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 1,675

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    Battlebus said:

    Good morning. The ghouls were out last night and it's not even Halloween. Wonder when we are going to read about someone being radicalised by PB?

    Back on subject and looking at the forecast for my own 'safe' Tory seat which is supposed to go Reform. Knowing the local Reform people (ex-UKIP) they just don't have the skills to run a council given the level of issues to be dealt with locally. Scale that up to Westminster and if Reform do get in, then unless there is something like the Heritage Foundation or some well-financed Think Tank, then it will be more of a disaster than the previous 3 governments.

    One can only hope there will be more defections of skilled and capable politicians to Reform before 2029 cos a Reform government won't be pretty.

    I am in one of the seats showing conservative on this MRP, with Reform a close second. My Tory MP is one of the relatively sane ones, but there is no way that I would tactically vote for them when Jenrick will be running on the same platform as Reform.
    If Kemi is replaced next year it will be Cleverly who replaces her by coronation as Tory MPs elected Howard by coronation to succeed IDS in 2003 and Sunak by coronation to replace Truss in 2022.

    Tory voters who stayed loyal in 2024 and all voters prefer Cleverly too polls show, only Reform voters prefer Jenrick. Even Tory members rejected Jenrick last year
    The best chance the Tories have is to select a leader who looks "prime ministerial" and is able to attract Reform-defectors who are queasy about the prospect of Nige in Downing Street. May also help with the fight with the LibDems. Cleverly appears the only option so far as I can see and, let's face it, he would have won the top job if the Tory MP's hadn't screwed up the leadership election. I think he must still feel in the game, as he accepted a job in the shadow cabinet (much like Howard becoming Shadow Chancellor under IDS when he might have reasonably retired).

    There was some talk downstream about the SDP. Worth remembering that they brought to the party some serious politicians with cabinet experience - Jenkins, Owen, Williams plus several more competent juniors. So far, Reform has only Farage, who is no-one's idea of a competent man of government. And as for his followers - don't ask.

    Whatever happen, Reform will prove short-lived. They either fail to maintain momentum, don't win the election, and then disappear when Farage steps down, and the Tories recover. Or else, they win, form a Government, and collapse under the pressure of office and events. Just imagine what a Reform-majority parliamentary party would look like. "Strong and stable"?
    I suspect if Cleverley is not leader by conference next year he will be unveiled as London Mayor candidate.
    From what I hear the Tory establishment are already plotting to make Cleverly party leader and Seb Coe London Mayoral candidate by conference next year
    If Seb Coe is the answer, you've been listening to William Hague. Coe is well into his bus pass years in any case. (Wasn't Coe's mum Indian, now you mention him?)
    Coe could beat Khan with LD and Reform preferences and has name recognition from London 2012 he ran
    FPTP now so would need tactical votes rather than second preferences.
    Reverting to suplementary vote
    https://electoral-reform.org.uk/government-decision-to-restore-supplementary-vote-system-elections-is-a-big-win-for-voters/
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 20,519

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    Battlebus said:

    Good morning. The ghouls were out last night and it's not even Halloween. Wonder when we are going to read about someone being radicalised by PB?

    Back on subject and looking at the forecast for my own 'safe' Tory seat which is supposed to go Reform. Knowing the local Reform people (ex-UKIP) they just don't have the skills to run a council given the level of issues to be dealt with locally. Scale that up to Westminster and if Reform do get in, then unless there is something like the Heritage Foundation or some well-financed Think Tank, then it will be more of a disaster than the previous 3 governments.

    One can only hope there will be more defections of skilled and capable politicians to Reform before 2029 cos a Reform government won't be pretty.

    I am in one of the seats showing conservative on this MRP, with Reform a close second. My Tory MP is one of the relatively sane ones, but there is no way that I would tactically vote for them when Jenrick will be running on the same platform as Reform.
    If Kemi is replaced next year it will be Cleverly who replaces her by coronation as Tory MPs elected Howard by coronation to succeed IDS in 2003 and Sunak by coronation to replace Truss in 2022.

    Tory voters who stayed loyal in 2024 and all voters prefer Cleverly too polls show, only Reform voters prefer Jenrick. Even Tory members rejected Jenrick last year
    The best chance the Tories have is to select a leader who looks "prime ministerial" and is able to attract Reform-defectors who are queasy about the prospect of Nige in Downing Street. May also help with the fight with the LibDems. Cleverly appears the only option so far as I can see and, let's face it, he would have won the top job if the Tory MP's hadn't screwed up the leadership election. I think he must still feel in the game, as he accepted a job in the shadow cabinet (much like Howard becoming Shadow Chancellor under IDS when he might have reasonably retired).

    There was some talk downstream about the SDP. Worth remembering that they brought to the party some serious politicians with cabinet experience - Jenkins, Owen, Williams plus several more competent juniors. So far, Reform has only Farage, who is no-one's idea of a competent man of government. And as for his followers - don't ask.

    Whatever happen, Reform will prove short-lived. They either fail to maintain momentum, don't win the election, and then disappear when Farage steps down, and the Tories recover. Or else, they win, form a Government, and collapse under the pressure of office and events. Just imagine what a Reform-majority parliamentary party would look like. "Strong and stable"?
    I suspect if Cleverley is not leader by conference next year he will be unveiled as London Mayor candidate.
    From what I hear the Tory establishment are already plotting to make Cleverly party leader and Seb Coe London Mayoral candidate by conference next year
    If Seb Coe is the answer, you've been listening to William Hague. Coe is well into his bus pass years in any case. (Wasn't Coe's mum Indian, now you mention him?)
    His Mum was half-Indian and a bit Irish, so he’s certainly not White British enough for some posters here.
    That’s interesting, I never knew that.
    But doesn’t it also give the likes of Isam reason to hope that the future *isn’t* some kind of caliphate?

    I doubt there’s many who are come across as English as Seb Coe.
    Cliff Richard is another not that well-known anglo-indian one.
    Yes but he's far too old to stand.

    (And there's always those nasty smears against him too).
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,505
    @EdwardJDavey

    Congratulations Dame Sarah Mullally on your appointment as the first female Archbishop of Canterbury. A truly historic moment for our church, our faith and our country.

    https://x.com/EdwardJDavey/status/1974041284177227940
  • MattWMattW Posts: 30,137
    HYUFD said:

    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    isam said:

    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:

    Leon said:

    Some bonkers comments on here last night, of which @Big_G_NorthWales was not one of them.

    "Antifa" is bonkers. Its an idea, not a terrorist organisation. I am antifa. But Big G is quoting someone important mentioning it - which makes it relevant to post on here.

    What else did we have. "every sane Patriotic Brit" have to vote for Farage - Mr Russia who went to American demanding economic sanctions on us.

    A "civil war" if Reform win the election or "eventual islamic takeover" if they don't. Riiiiiiiiight.

    This forum is a microcosm of the real world. We have representatives from most elements of real world politics. And we need to try switching off and back on again as everyone has lost it.

    Calm down. The “every sane patriotic Brit” remark was me having a giraffe. I know it winds up the Centrist Duds

    For a start, you could ALSO vote for Advance
    If you’d have suggested, fifty or sixty years ago, that London would have a Muslim mayor, entire neighbourhoods in big cities would be almost entirely Muslim, churches were disappearing but mosques were increasing, and there were half a dozen MPs elected solely on the back of a bloc of Islamic votes, they’d have called you an absolute loon who was scaremongering. And that’s not to mention 7/7, Lee Rigby, Manchester Arena etc

    But that is where we are, and it’s regarded as completely normal. Actually it’s considered offensive to criticise, or even to merely point it out.

    So why would it be odd if we were governed by an Islamic party or the country became majority Muslim in another fifty years or so? The demographics are pointing in that direction. Things change, they have already are are continuing to do so
    I lived in Aldgate East in the last 1990s, which was 30 years ago, and had a Muslim landlord and all my neighbours were Muslims. Brick Lane and environs and all the areas heading towards Commercial Road and Commercial Street were all majority Muslim.

    I went to a school in Bedford from the 80s to the 90s (Biddenham), that was majority Muslim.

    The main thing I discovered from this is that Muslims (like Jews and atheists and Christians) are just like everybody else.

    Or, let me put it another way, I do wonder if you or @Lenon actually have any close Musliim friends? Because I think when we don't know people in a particular group well, we tend to assume that they are (a) much more homogenous than they are, and (b) that they are much more different to us than they are,
    I’m not criticising Muslims, saying they’re bad people/a bad religion, or anything negative, just saying what I think will happen based on what has happened and what I think will in the future based on my understanding of human behaviour. I don’t see that it matters whether I am friends with any Muslims or not but, even if I were, and they were just like everybody else , I still think we are eventually heading for an Islamic takeover of Britain. Actually you could argue that it’s because they’re just like everybody else that it is likely to happen.
    Personally I think the western lifestyle will eventually seduce them away from religion, as it has to the West. The UK is a Christian country in name only - most Brits are not actively religious (once a year at Christmas does not count).
    I think it's the social democratic lifestyle rather than the western lifestyle that is best at seducing people away from religion. Look at the contrast between the US and, say, Scandinavia, for example. People lose their religion when they are content; they get religious when they are struggling.
    Over 70% of Danes are members of the established Church of Denmark. Estonia for example is more atheist and has a flat tax of just 22%, lower even than the USA. Evangelical Christianity is growing in Communist China underground
    Finland is also interesting, in that 60%+ are members of the established church, the Evangelical Lutheran Church of Finland. Plus 2^+% to the other established church, which is Orthodox.

    I have no idea where the ELCF fits in the ecclesiological zoo, beyond Lutheran doctrinal bases and catechisms, but it also has a tradition of Revivalism - mainly an evangelical thing, and was fertile ground for charismatic renewal.

    Maintaining a high membership when there is a "church tax" (see Germany) in Finland is interesting, but perhaps there are qualities around "centre of national values" type factors in a frontline state.

    I'm sure @Leon can inform us on the propensity of Finnish ladies to indulge the desires of international hairy-hedonists-with-a-patter who claim that they are rich, especially with books with "ice" in the title.

    I can tell you about winter cycling in Finland, and how the city of Oulu, 50km south of the arctic circle, is a stock answer to anyone whining about cycling in the UK in winter being "impossible". Oulu modal share in winter by cycle = 12% .
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/future/article/20231220-why-oulu-finland-is-the-winter-cycling-capital-of-the-world
    Finland doesn't have an established church but yes good points otherwise
    That's interesting. They are termed "national churches", so I used the term "established" as an "interpretation for England", and they get 1-2% of the taxes of their members (says Wiki). So I may also have a wrong assumption in the church tax being an extra.

    Thanks for the clarification.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 30,767
    edited 12:59PM
    carnforth said:

    malcolmg said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Ben Zaranko
    @BenZaranko

    There are some eye-popping stats in this new report from my @TheIFS colleagues.

    Here's just one: 10% of teenagers now receive child disability living allowance (CDLA), up from 5% a decade ago. Just a remarkable change.

    https://x.com/BenZaranko/status/1974040804386562488

    The three year old data is particularly worrying and is a bit of a canary in the coalmine that this is NOT a covid cohort phenomenon and will in fact be ongoing. Gov't needs to get a grip on this, badly.
    I suspect it’s driven by the increase in mental health claims
    It is driven by free largesse, amazed to hear you can self diagnos and claim benefits. Guy on LBC the other day , earning 65K a year and got 54K grant by self diagnosing an illness. magic money tree in place here right enough.
    You can’t claim benefits merely on a self diagnosis.
    You can, however, hire a private doctor/psychologist who will write pretty much what they are asked to after an online consultation. Which amounts to the same thing.
    Are you suggesting we ban private medicine as an wholly unscientific scam?
    Or only for people on benefits who don't deserve it?
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,627
    Andy_JS said:

    New leader of the Greens: "Political class poisoned by extreme wealth". BBC.

    Kemi Badenoch, Keir Starmer and Ed Davey are hardly some kind of plutocratic elite. They all probably grew up with more humble backgrounds than Zach Polanski.

    Farage’s wealth remains, as ever, a subject of mystery.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 34,730
    ....

    A gang of illegal immigrants who stormed a high street armed with machetes and brutally attacked a shop owner have been jailed. Hana Hassan, 22; Yosef Shaban, 24; Osama Qadir, 21, and Dawan Mantik, 28 - all Kurds from Iran and Iraq - arrived in Britain on small boats.

    The four were part of a larger mob of 12 who 'rallied the troops' after a dispute days earlier.

    They targeted fellow Kurd Kurwan Ali at his shop in Bournemouth, Dorset, in a 'ferocious and frighteningly violent attack', leaving one of the victims with life-threatening lung injuries.

    At the time of the attack Hassan was living in the taxpayer-funded Britannia Hotel, which was the focal point of local protests over the summer. Two of the men involved, Ahmed Omar and Rahel Omer, fled the country soon after the events of the following days.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-15158751/Kurdish-illegal-immigrants-jailed-terrifying-machete-attack-shop-owner-judge-tells-not-country.html

    Thank you for that. It wouldn't have happened before July of last year!
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