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If there were an election tomorrow the Tories would be banjaxed – politicalbetting.com

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  • Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    Roger said:

    If thirs poll was closer to the election and therefore worth taking seriously it would be worth considering the weapons available to the governing party

    1. Rejoin the EU without a referendum. That would kill Farage at a stroke
    2. Introduce PR (Ditto)
    3. Deleted (Bad taste)
    4. (Ditto)

    As someone who voted Remain, 1) is delusional. It would turbocharge Farage
    2) is admitting defeat for the Labour Party.

    The problem the government has is that it is mired in Process. Nothing can be done because it takes 5+years to get the legal comedies sorted out.

    Among other things, 1) would require accession talks with the EU. There is simply no way to get those done inside a decade. There would also be none-stop legal challenges in the U.K. courts.

    2) would require a project to rework the UK electoral system. Can’t be done inside 5 years. Again, all the legal cases

    Are there really legal challenges out there that steep? Have we had legal challenges to the various changes to the electoral systems already imposed?

    Labour need to change the narrative. I don't say Starmer because I've already written him off. Something *big* to change direction with a new leader. PR would be a big progressive leap forward - simply adopt one of the various proportional systems already in use. Electoral Commission can get it done in time for the next election.

    As for yerp, they won't let us back in. Not with Ingsoc on the rise. That isn't the exercise. It's to utterly transform the political narrative. Brexit has made us poorer, more isolated, more exposed to migration etc etc etc and its all Farage's fault.

    The fanbois will be outraged, but the concept is that you get all the people who are voting Reform because they are poorer, more isolated and fed up with migration to recognise that its all Brexit...
    It would be possible to get PR implemented before the next general election, but would it be possible for this government ?
    Reform is a pro-PR party too.
    For now.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 6,778

    Battlebus said:

    All part of the Nigel for PM narrative. Who is funding this lot?

    A rogue or bad poll is one where you disagree with the result?
    Nothing to do with the quality of the poll, which seems accurate according to all recent evidence. The problem is Farage is not being subjected to ANY scrutiny by some mainstream media channels whereas every else is.

    Farage's catastrophic paracetamol-autism interview with Ferrari on LBC led every LBC bulletin on Wednesday and was picked up by ITV. Absolutely nothing from the BBC. Zip, nada, nothing. Chris Mason's fawning eulogy on the nature of the Reform Conference was quite remarkable and drove a coach and horse through the BBC's impartiality remit.

    Call the beggars out!
    The other day, in the Times, a below-the-line commentator referred to Chris Mason as the Uriah Heep of British political correspondents. That image is going to stick with me......
    That’s a slur on a great prog rock band. Mick Box will be consulting his lawyers as we speak.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,218
    nico67 said:

    So it seems Nandy is saying you won’t have to use the ID to access services but it now seems that you will still have to have it .

    Good clear communications lead as we've come to expect.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 37,843

    “It will be compulsory if you want to work in this country, so you’ll have to show that to be able to prove that you have the right to work,” Lisa Nandy told BBC Breakfast."

    If someone's already broken the law by entering the country illegally, are they going to care about working illegally? Seems doubtful.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 57,300

    “It will be compulsory if you want to work in this country, so you’ll have to show that to be able to prove that you have the right to work,” Lisa Nandy told BBC Breakfast."

    That is the law since before Gordon Brown - @Roger repeated the story of a friend who got caught because he didn't check, years ago.

    The issue is the number of employers who want to employ illegals. Because you can pay them less and treat them like shit. Enforcement, that is.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 20,298

    Can we also consider the key question - what is a "Reform majority?"

    Normally you elect MPs and if one party has a majority of MPs they can control the Commons and thus form the government.

    But the lived reality of the Farage party - in whichever guise - is that they fall out and fall apart at pace. We're already seeing this at council level. Nationally its hard to keep track of how many MPs they have in any given week. And we have an official splinter in the form of AdvanceUK.

    Whatever majority Farage got would not be stable...

    Though Starmer got a landslide majority and there is open talk of him being replaced within about a year and he was in his first year unable to get even moderate reforms through that he said was critically important for the country.

    So Stability isn't exactly Labour's forte either.

    As for the Tories, the five years were hardly stable.

    We're not exactly in stable times for anyone.
    In comparison to the prior Parliamentary term I would say that this Labour government is much more stable, in the same way that a dead cat is stable - i.e. completely lifeless except for the maggots eating away inside.
  • Andy_JS said:

    Incidentally, just been reading the BBC 'what we know' section on ID cards. Apparently, it'll be on people's phones.

    I despise smartphones, and don't have one. At least, not yet. Maybe I'll end up being forced to get one thanks to this genius move.

    I haven't got one either and I don't intend to just because of ID cards.
    They are really dumbphones, because as phones they perform badly. They are of course good for lots of other things, but as phones, they suck.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 53,403

    “It will be compulsory if you want to work in this country, so you’ll have to show that to be able to prove that you have the right to work,” Lisa Nandy told BBC Breakfast."

    That is the law since before Gordon Brown - @Roger repeated the story of a friend who got caught because he didn't check, years ago.

    The issue is the number of employers who want to employ illegals. Because you can pay them less and treat them like shit. Enforcement, that is.
    I think that Rogers friend was presented false documents, not that he didn't check. A "Britcard" digital ID would make that much harder.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 57,300

    Eabhal said:

    Good to finally get an MRP. We've been in the dark about whether Reform's vote share would translate into seats; at these proportions, it looks like they could just squeeze in.

    I appreciate constituency-level analysis with an MRP is a bit silly, but if the Conservatives really are on track to lose the Scottish border seats to Reform then they are doomed.

    We are picking up a lot of anger amongst farmers towards the Tories. A LOT of anger. Not helped by peacocking Tories who think farmers are their block vote who will never leave despite being royally shafted by their government.
    Didn't farmers shaft themselves over Brexit?
    The farmers always seemed to be very angry with the EU because it gave them subsidies. I could never understand that.
    Because it gave them subsidies to do stupid things, and required vast amounts of paperwork to deal with them. Farmers tend to be people who don't want to work in offices.

    Not taking the subsidies meant you would be out of business in a month.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 20,298

    Eabhal said:

    Good to finally get an MRP. We've been in the dark about whether Reform's vote share would translate into seats; at these proportions, it looks like they could just squeeze in.

    I appreciate constituency-level analysis with an MRP is a bit silly, but if the Conservatives really are on track to lose the Scottish border seats to Reform then they are doomed.

    We are picking up a lot of anger amongst farmers towards the Tories. A LOT of anger. Not helped by peacocking Tories who think farmers are their block vote who will never leave despite being royally shafted by their government.
    Didn't farmers shaft themselves over Brexit?
    The farmers always seemed to be very angry with the EU because it gave them subsidies. I could never understand that.
    The subsidies always came with vast quantities of paperwork and intrusive requirements over how the land was to be managed to qualify for the subsidies. Anyone would chafe under such a regime.

    The EU was monumentally awful at building support for itself.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 17,021
    Andy_JS said:

    “It will be compulsory if you want to work in this country, so you’ll have to show that to be able to prove that you have the right to work,” Lisa Nandy told BBC Breakfast."

    If someone's already broken the law by entering the country illegally, are they going to care about working illegally? Seems doubtful.
    The ease of working in the black economy is said to be one of the pull factors for irregular migration. Seems like a reasonable move.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 6,778
    Foxy said:

    Battlebus said:

    Incidentally, just been reading the BBC 'what we know' section on ID cards. Apparently, it'll be on people's phones.

    I despise smartphones, and don't have one. At least, not yet. Maybe I'll end up being forced to get one thanks to this genius move.

    What seems to be missing with this ID stuff is an announcement in Parliament first together with any Impact Assessment. Seems to be kite flying / regaining the narrative / kicking Burham off the front pages.

    The Burnham thing was odd in that he would have been taken more seriously had he been a PM MP. Perhaps he saw his chances of a safe seat being compromised by No. 10 and decided to lash out.
    According to the BBC, he wants it introduced by the end of the parliament.

    That looks very optimistic to me given the time needed to consult, enact the primary legislation and to build and test everything.

    I still think the lack of mandate to do anything in this sphere is deeply concerning.
    The way to implement it is to make it voluntary, and free. A lot of folk would find it useful if it became an option when opening a bank account, renting accommodation, buying a house, voting in elections etc. I suspect the adoption rate would be very high. There would still be ways to live without it, such as carrying passport or driving licence etc, just increasingly awkward.
    There would also need to be an insistence that agencies such as banks and government departments accept an ID card without asking for any other information.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 18,272

    Andy_JS said:

    Apparently Starmer believes ID cards will deter illegal migrants from trying to come to the UK by making it difficult for them to find work.Seems like wishful thinking imo.

    If he'd ever had a job running a business he'd know its already the law to check ID when you employ someone and has been for decades.

    This is Home Office civil service overreach trying to get through an authoritarian policy they already wanted, and it has bugger all to do with deterring illegal migrants as those hiring them cash in hand without checking ID won't be affected by new regulations one bit.
    The authoritarian aspect is requiring the checks, not the means by which you demonstrate compliance. We might decide as a nation those checks are necessary. The problem is that the checks are a universal requirement but there is no universal or comprehensive means of compliance. You could require everyone to have a passport or residence document, which would deal with that required check (but not others), but then you have an ID card with a different name.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 7,298
    boulay said:

    Foxy said:

    boulay said:

    Foxy said:

    Battlebus said:

    Incidentally, just been reading the BBC 'what we know' section on ID cards. Apparently, it'll be on people's phones.

    I despise smartphones, and don't have one. At least, not yet. Maybe I'll end up being forced to get one thanks to this genius move.

    What seems to be missing with this ID stuff is an announcement in Parliament first together with any Impact Assessment. Seems to be kite flying / regaining the narrative / kicking Burham off the front pages.

    The Burnham thing was odd in that he would have been taken more seriously had he been a PM MP. Perhaps he saw his chances of a safe seat being compromised by No. 10 and decided to lash out.
    According to the BBC, he wants it introduced by the end of the parliament.

    That looks very optimistic to me given the time needed to consult, enact the primary legislation and to build and test everything.

    I still think the lack of mandate to do anything in this sphere is deeply concerning.
    The way to implement it is to make it voluntary, and free. A lot of folk would find it useful if it became an option when opening a bank account, renting accommodation, buying a house, voting in elections etc. I suspect the adoption rate would be very high. There would still be ways to live without it, such as carrying passport or driving licence etc, just increasingly awkward.
    I use a system here called one.gov and had to set it up with the usual bank type set ups with uploading some proof of address docs, passport and then the whole proof of life filming yourself. I have an ap I can log into but I can do everything I need re completing tax returns, paying taxes, fees etc or any other govt services/admin.

    I wouldn’t have a problem with an employer or a estate agent or bank having controlled access to a page generated from it proving who I was and I was allowed to live and work here as would save loads of time as would cover their arses as well that they have done a valid check. It would remove the need for lots of different companies etc to have to collect and store your docs like passport copies.

    So for example in the UK if there was a central gov system where you load up your standard sort of DD/KYC docs and you have an account number and an ap firstly you can go in to one place and update addresses, pay tax etc in one easy place.

    There could then be an option for others to check - you go in to open a new bank account and the banker enters your gov ID number on the gov site which sends you an access permission notification on your phone which you authorise and the banker can see all your official details, passport, etc etc, download a confirmation from the system and save themselves and you a ton of paperwork.

    Similarly if someone is going for a job the employer has to check the system and see that you have permission to work in UK and download the confirmation. The employer knows they aren’t illegally employing and they don’t have a leg to stand on if they don’t bother with the check.

    The ap could also have an official photo ID that covers driving licence so you can use it for buying age restricted goods, ID for flights in UK, Ireland etc, as it saves having a plastic card on you if you so wish but is secure enough to trust.
    Is that Finland?
    No, Jersey. I would use a similar system for the UK but bolt on third party access with authorisation to allow banks etc to check and confirm you are you.

    I can currently, and very handily even get and pay for my scallop diving permit or top up Prisoners’ bank accounts if I have any friends or family in there.

    https://one.gov.je/myservices?_ga=2.263066828.1398647101.1579509654-1748901107.1552405005&_gl=1*gudwqp*_ga*MTc5MzExNzU0OC4xNzU3NzU5NDYw*_ga_07GM08Q17P*czE3NTg4NzM3NjgkbzE0JGcxJHQxNzU4ODczNzk1JGozNSRsMCRoMA..

    There are constantly more services being added but it’s one nice easy place.

    Would need even more scaling up than Estonia...
  • Foss said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Apparently Starmer believes ID cards will deter illegal migrants from trying to come to the UK by making it difficult for them to find work.Seems like wishful thinking imo.

    You’d think a former DPP would understand that some people just break the rules.
    A related question is what will be done with those who fail the test? If ID cards do uncover tens or hundreds of thousands of illegal workers, what next? Will the government deport them or just throw them out of work and pay them benefits instead? Or pass another amnesty bill turning illegal workers into legal ones overnight?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 57,300
    Foxy said:

    “It will be compulsory if you want to work in this country, so you’ll have to show that to be able to prove that you have the right to work,” Lisa Nandy told BBC Breakfast."

    That is the law since before Gordon Brown - @Roger repeated the story of a friend who got caught because he didn't check, years ago.

    The issue is the number of employers who want to employ illegals. Because you can pay them less and treat them like shit. Enforcement, that is.
    I think that Rogers friend was presented false documents, not that he didn't check. A "Britcard" digital ID would make that much harder.
    @Roger first told us about this some years back. IIRC, The friend took over the cafe with the existing staff and didn't realise that you need to do a full staff audit on handover. Unless you like legal liability.

    Part of the process that you go through is verifying the documents presented to you. Source - have done this to help with the paperwork for the relative who runs a building business. In the early days, I did the books for him.

    So I verified all the passports, visas, CIS numbers etc.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 10,782
    edited September 26
    "Palantir has cultivated relationships across the political spectrum, presenting itself as a technological solution to complex public sector challenges while accumulating unprecedented access to British citizens' data."
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 14,635
    edited September 26
    stodge said:

    A lot of very tight fights on that MRP. Tactical voting would play merry hell with the results. Delicious

    We had this before the last election too. I’ve not looked at the constituency numbers in detail but will do so later. Reform win only six seats in London on the MRP it seems.
    Yeah.... Tories hold Bromley and Orpington but lose Hornchurch, Old Bexley and Romford (very close) to Reform, they compensate by picking up Chelsea, Hendon and Uxbridge for a wash overall (hold Chingford, Croydon S, Harrow E and Ruislip/Pinner)
    Reform also pick up Bexleyheath, Dagenham and weirdly Wes Streeting's Ilford North. The rest are holds for all
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 53,403

    Vote shares on the MRP were as follows (changes from Junes MRP)
    Ref 27(+1)
    Lab 21 (-2)
    Con 17 (-1)
    LD 15 (=)
    Grn 11 (=)
    SNP 3(=)
    PC 1 (=)

    Two good by-election wins last night for the Green Party, and from the look of the photo here a strong ground game. Greens now claim to have a bigger membership than the LDs too.

    https://bsky.app/profile/zackpolanski.bsky.social/post/3lyuiihu2es2e

    With "Your Party" in chaos, it looks like Zack has the momentum on the left. Could we see them attracting defections too?

    We are solidly in to an era of 5 Party politics, with 6 in Wales and Scotland. That really doesn't work under FPTP. A minority Fagage government on 27% of the vote would have no legitimacy.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 7,298
    AnneJGP said:

    Incidentally, just been reading the BBC 'what we know' section on ID cards. Apparently, it'll be on people's phones.

    I despise smartphones, and don't have one. At least, not yet. Maybe I'll end up being forced to get one thanks to this genius move.

    I wonder if it might be quite popular, given the number of times you have to prove your ID and the buggeration it can cause.

    Often not even a passport will do and you have to provide utility bills and the like.

    Im not sure what your objections are to having a smartphone, but having a small personal computer with you is great. Not only is it great on the move for maps, tickets, train schedules, sat nav, digital radio etc but I do most of my small personal computing tasks on it. I rarely make calls or send/receive texts.
    What is not great is the monthly bill.
    I think I pay about £11.83. The phone was about £200.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 20,298

    boulay said:

    Foxy said:

    boulay said:

    Foxy said:

    Battlebus said:

    Incidentally, just been reading the BBC 'what we know' section on ID cards. Apparently, it'll be on people's phones.

    I despise smartphones, and don't have one. At least, not yet. Maybe I'll end up being forced to get one thanks to this genius move.

    What seems to be missing with this ID stuff is an announcement in Parliament first together with any Impact Assessment. Seems to be kite flying / regaining the narrative / kicking Burham off the front pages.

    The Burnham thing was odd in that he would have been taken more seriously had he been a PM MP. Perhaps he saw his chances of a safe seat being compromised by No. 10 and decided to lash out.
    According to the BBC, he wants it introduced by the end of the parliament.

    That looks very optimistic to me given the time needed to consult, enact the primary legislation and to build and test everything.

    I still think the lack of mandate to do anything in this sphere is deeply concerning.
    The way to implement it is to make it voluntary, and free. A lot of folk would find it useful if it became an option when opening a bank account, renting accommodation, buying a house, voting in elections etc. I suspect the adoption rate would be very high. There would still be ways to live without it, such as carrying passport or driving licence etc, just increasingly awkward.
    I use a system here called one.gov and had to set it up with the usual bank type set ups with uploading some proof of address docs, passport and then the whole proof of life filming yourself. I have an ap I can log into but I can do everything I need re completing tax returns, paying taxes, fees etc or any other govt services/admin.

    I wouldn’t have a problem with an employer or a estate agent or bank having controlled access to a page generated from it proving who I was and I was allowed to live and work here as would save loads of time as would cover their arses as well that they have done a valid check. It would remove the need for lots of different companies etc to have to collect and store your docs like passport copies.

    So for example in the UK if there was a central gov system where you load up your standard sort of DD/KYC docs and you have an account number and an ap firstly you can go in to one place and update addresses, pay tax etc in one easy place.

    There could then be an option for others to check - you go in to open a new bank account and the banker enters your gov ID number on the gov site which sends you an access permission notification on your phone which you authorise and the banker can see all your official details, passport, etc etc, download a confirmation from the system and save themselves and you a ton of paperwork.

    Similarly if someone is going for a job the employer has to check the system and see that you have permission to work in UK and download the confirmation. The employer knows they aren’t illegally employing and they don’t have a leg to stand on if they don’t bother with the check.

    The ap could also have an official photo ID that covers driving licence so you can use it for buying age restricted goods, ID for flights in UK, Ireland etc, as it saves having a plastic card on you if you so wish but is secure enough to trust.
    Is that Finland?
    No, Jersey. I would use a similar system for the UK but bolt on third party access with authorisation to allow banks etc to check and confirm you are you.

    I can currently, and very handily even get and pay for my scallop diving permit or top up Prisoners’ bank accounts if I have any friends or family in there.

    https://one.gov.je/myservices?_ga=2.263066828.1398647101.1579509654-1748901107.1552405005&_gl=1*gudwqp*_ga*MTc5MzExNzU0OC4xNzU3NzU5NDYw*_ga_07GM08Q17P*czE3NTg4NzM3NjgkbzE0JGcxJHQxNzU4ODczNzk1JGozNSRsMCRoMA..

    There are constantly more services being added but it’s one nice easy place.

    Would need even more scaling up than Estonia...
    Scaling a system isn't normally one of the more difficult parts. On my last project I increased the capacity of a system by a factor of about 20, and it was unusual in that I did it with a few code changes, rather than by throwing more servers at it.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 14,635
    Kruger's Wiltshire East is a dead heat RefCon so don't expect a by election!
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 57,300

    Foss said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Apparently Starmer believes ID cards will deter illegal migrants from trying to come to the UK by making it difficult for them to find work.Seems like wishful thinking imo.

    You’d think a former DPP would understand that some people just break the rules.
    A related question is what will be done with those who fail the test? If ID cards do uncover tens or hundreds of thousands of illegal workers, what next? Will the government deport them or just throw them out of work and pay them benefits instead? Or pass another amnesty bill turning illegal workers into legal ones overnight?
    Congratulations on thinking ahead

    Yes, that is the tiny flaw in my brilliant scheme to end illegal working overnight -- a bounty paid to the person who reports the employer, upon conviction.

    Overnight, something like a million people would lose their jobs. Several industries would implode. Deliveroo would raise its prices by several multiples and be very short of delivery people.

    They would be eligible for next to no benefits. So in theory, they would have to self deport. In practise, the government would have the amnesty through the House by lunch.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,633
    Best wishes to @HYUFD at this sad time.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,792
    Andy_JS said:

    “It will be compulsory if you want to work in this country, so you’ll have to show that to be able to prove that you have the right to work,” Lisa Nandy told BBC Breakfast."

    If someone's already broken the law by entering the country illegally, are they going to care about working illegally? Seems doubtful.
    My thoughts exactly. And I very much doubt that many (I'll accept not all) car-washes, nail-bars and so on bother too much about such niceties as income tax and national insurance. Couple of days work, cash in hand and move on for both employer and employee.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,633

    "Palantir has cultivated relationships across the political spectrum, presenting itself as a technological solution to complex public sector challenges while accumulating unprecedented access to British citizens' data."

    Thiel is a genuinely very interesting man, from all I’ve read about him. I’d be interested in meeting him.

    But, I don’t think I’d want to give him access to all my data.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 53,403

    Foss said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Apparently Starmer believes ID cards will deter illegal migrants from trying to come to the UK by making it difficult for them to find work.Seems like wishful thinking imo.

    You’d think a former DPP would understand that some people just break the rules.
    A related question is what will be done with those who fail the test? If ID cards do uncover tens or hundreds of thousands of illegal workers, what next? Will the government deport them or just throw them out of work and pay them benefits instead? Or pass another amnesty bill turning illegal workers into legal ones overnight?
    The vast majority of people working illegally are either visa overstayers or those on non-working visas. Asylum applications are invalidated by working illegally, and asylum seekers get moved at short notice quite frequently, so rarely work.

    So deportation would be most likely, and this government has ramped up deportations from a low under the Tory government, though not yet back to historic levels.

    In practice, when I see illegals at the hospital (they get emergency treatment only, and get charged for that) therer never used to be any enforcement.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 21,192

    So it looks like Keir has finally decided his government’s narrative is to fight the politics of grievance.

    I’m glad he’s finally settled on something 15 months in. How long will this relaunch last?

    Not exactly inspirational is it, that your governments purpose is being against something rather than what it might do itself?

    Have I missed something?
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 14,635
    Happy reset number 28 day everyone. Exciting times
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 10,782
    edited September 26
    The petition Is already moving towards a million signatures by the end of the day.

    A couple of million in time for the Labour conference next week would be a good result.

    https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/730194?ref=ed_direct
  • FossFoss Posts: 1,775
    edited September 26

    Foss said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Apparently Starmer believes ID cards will deter illegal migrants from trying to come to the UK by making it difficult for them to find work.Seems like wishful thinking imo.

    You’d think a former DPP would understand that some people just break the rules.
    A related question is what will be done with those who fail the test? If ID cards do uncover tens or hundreds of thousands of illegal workers, what next? Will the government deport them or just throw them out of work and pay them benefits instead? Or pass another amnesty bill turning illegal workers into legal ones overnight?
    Congratulations on thinking ahead

    Yes, that is the tiny flaw in my brilliant scheme to end illegal working overnight -- a bounty paid to the person who reports the employer, upon conviction.

    Overnight, something like a million people would lose their jobs. Several industries would implode. Deliveroo would raise its prices by several multiples and be very short of delivery people.

    They would be eligible for next to no benefits. So in theory, they would have to self deport. In practise, the government would have the amnesty through the House by lunch.
    They’d be a lot of potentially grateful future Labour voters in that amnesty cohort…
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 37,843
    Foxy said:

    Foss said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Apparently Starmer believes ID cards will deter illegal migrants from trying to come to the UK by making it difficult for them to find work.Seems like wishful thinking imo.

    You’d think a former DPP would understand that some people just break the rules.
    A related question is what will be done with those who fail the test? If ID cards do uncover tens or hundreds of thousands of illegal workers, what next? Will the government deport them or just throw them out of work and pay them benefits instead? Or pass another amnesty bill turning illegal workers into legal ones overnight?
    The vast majority of people working illegally are either visa overstayers or those on non-working visas. Asylum applications are invalidated by working illegally, and asylum seekers get moved at short notice quite frequently, so rarely work.

    So deportation would be most likely, and this government has ramped up deportations from a low under the Tory government, though not yet back to historic levels.

    In practice, when I see illegals at the hospital (they get emergency treatment only, and get charged for that) therer never used to be any enforcement.
    They've deported 3 people recently as far as the reports go.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,633

    “It will be compulsory if you want to work in this country, so you’ll have to show that to be able to prove that you have the right to work,” Lisa Nandy told BBC Breakfast."

    That is the law since before Gordon Brown - @Roger repeated the story of a friend who got caught because he didn't check, years ago.

    The issue is the number of employers who want to employ illegals. Because you can pay them less and treat them like shit. Enforcement, that is.
    There is a type of employer, who you just know, would support the restoration of chattel slavery, if they thought they could get away with it. More than financial gain, I think some people just enjoy screwing people over.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 57,300
    A quote from Admiral Rickover -

    "I have invented an expression of "Say-Do." All you have to do is say that you will do something and you get lots of applause. You hear that all the time from the executive branch. You do nothing, yet you get the credit. It is a very interesting phenomenon that nobody ever follows up to see if the action has been taken. I see this petty trick going on all the time. People say something. The newspapers laud them before they have done a single thing. Then they
    never do it and go on to some other "Say-Do" thing and get more credit. Pretty soon they become important public figures who are always saving taxpayers' money; yet they have never produced any product or effected any saving. I am like Diogenes. I have been looking vainly for those who actually do what they say."
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 14,635
    Foxy said:

    Vote shares on the MRP were as follows (changes from Junes MRP)
    Ref 27(+1)
    Lab 21 (-2)
    Con 17 (-1)
    LD 15 (=)
    Grn 11 (=)
    SNP 3(=)
    PC 1 (=)

    Two good by-election wins last night for the Green Party, and from the look of the photo here a strong ground game. Greens now claim to have a bigger membership than the LDs too.

    https://bsky.app/profile/zackpolanski.bsky.social/post/3lyuiihu2es2e

    With "Your Party" in chaos, it looks like Zack has the momentum on the left. Could we see them attracting defections too?

    We are solidly in to an era of 5 Party politics, with 6 in Wales and Scotland. That really doesn't work under FPTP. A minority Fagage government on 27% of the vote would have no legitimacy.
    The Tories would be very pleased with the Greens eating a portion of the LD vote on the left of centre, it would be very helpful to them in the blue wall
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 37,843
    "@JasonGroves1

    Lisa Nandy: ‘Every single person will have to have a digital ID"

    https://x.com/JasonGroves1/status/1971473985176211916
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 57,300
    Sean_F said:

    “It will be compulsory if you want to work in this country, so you’ll have to show that to be able to prove that you have the right to work,” Lisa Nandy told BBC Breakfast."

    That is the law since before Gordon Brown - @Roger repeated the story of a friend who got caught because he didn't check, years ago.

    The issue is the number of employers who want to employ illegals. Because you can pay them less and treat them like shit. Enforcement, that is.
    There is a type of employer, who you just know, would support the restoration of chattel slavery, if they thought they could get away with it. More than financial gain, I think some people just enjoy screwing people over.
    I have already proposed that we import from Libya the migrants captured and imprisoned by the "Libyan Coastguard"*. They sell the labour of those they imprison to Libyan farmers.

    My plan is to import them to work the fields etc. Pay the "Libyan Coastguard" a one off fee per head.

    I demand a statue for this brilliant idea. I understand there are some spaces for public monuments of this type, near the docks in Bristol?

    *They do this because the EU pays them money to do so.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 53,403
    Sean_F said:

    "Palantir has cultivated relationships across the political spectrum, presenting itself as a technological solution to complex public sector challenges while accumulating unprecedented access to British citizens' data."

    Thiel is a genuinely very interesting man, from all I’ve read about him. I’d be interested in meeting him.

    But, I don’t think I’d want to give him access to all my data.
    Recently I read "Goliaths Curse" which describes personal data as the great "lootable resource" of modern times, and that is what Theil is doing. The feedstock of AI is our data, and he wants control of it.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 14,635
    Andy_JS said:

    "@JasonGroves1

    Lisa Nandy: ‘Every single person will have to have a digital ID"

    https://x.com/JasonGroves1/status/1971473985176211916

    A breach can't be truly catastrophic unless it buggers everyone
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 57,300
    Foss said:

    Foss said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Apparently Starmer believes ID cards will deter illegal migrants from trying to come to the UK by making it difficult for them to find work.Seems like wishful thinking imo.

    You’d think a former DPP would understand that some people just break the rules.
    A related question is what will be done with those who fail the test? If ID cards do uncover tens or hundreds of thousands of illegal workers, what next? Will the government deport them or just throw them out of work and pay them benefits instead? Or pass another amnesty bill turning illegal workers into legal ones overnight?
    Congratulations on thinking ahead

    Yes, that is the tiny flaw in my brilliant scheme to end illegal working overnight -- a bounty paid to the person who reports the employer, upon conviction.

    Overnight, something like a million people would lose their jobs. Several industries would implode. Deliveroo would raise its prices by several multiples and be very short of delivery people.

    They would be eligible for next to no benefits. So in theory, they would have to self deport. In practise, the government would have the amnesty through the House by lunch.
    They’d be a lot of potentially grateful future Labour voters in that amnesty cohort…
    I recall when the Conservatives were negotiating about Hong Kong. The Labour Party became quite animated at the prospect of 500,000 Hong Kong people rocking up in the UK. The accusation of trying to rig the next election by importing voters was made....
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 20,298

    The petition Is already moving towards a million signatures by the end of the day.

    A couple of million in time for the Labour conference next week would be a good result.

    https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/730194?ref=ed_direct

    These petitions are often very interesting in terms of the geographical distribution of signatories. There's a wealth of information there.

    On this one it's interesting that the major urban centres - e.g. London and Birmingham - have very low rates of signatures at present. Maybe they will catch up later. At a first glance I'd say that it looks like areas with strong Reform support have high rates of signing this petition.

    This might just be because it has spread over the parts of social media used by those voters first, but it suggests this won't be a way to win back those voters to Labour.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,218
    Lets see, I won one of the election comps here essentially off the back of using the Yougov MRP to work out numbers of lost deposits etc for each party at the last GE though. On a technical level they've got a track record for being the best predictor of recent times.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 21,192
    edited September 26
    boulay said:

    Foxy said:

    Battlebus said:

    Incidentally, just been reading the BBC 'what we know' section on ID cards. Apparently, it'll be on people's phones.

    I despise smartphones, and don't have one. At least, not yet. Maybe I'll end up being forced to get one thanks to this genius move.

    What seems to be missing with this ID stuff is an announcement in Parliament first together with any Impact Assessment. Seems to be kite flying / regaining the narrative / kicking Burham off the front pages.

    The Burnham thing was odd in that he would have been taken more seriously had he been a PM MP. Perhaps he saw his chances of a safe seat being compromised by No. 10 and decided to lash out.
    According to the BBC, he wants it introduced by the end of the parliament.

    That looks very optimistic to me given the time needed to consult, enact the primary legislation and to build and test everything.

    I still think the lack of mandate to do anything in this sphere is deeply concerning.
    The way to implement it is to make it voluntary, and free. A lot of folk would find it useful if it became an option when opening a bank account, renting accommodation, buying a house, voting in elections etc. I suspect the adoption rate would be very high. There would still be ways to live without it, such as carrying passport or driving licence etc, just increasingly awkward.
    I use a system here called one.gov and had to set it up with the usual bank type set ups with uploading some proof of address docs, passport and then the whole proof of life filming yourself. I have an ap I can log into but I can do everything I need re completing tax returns, paying taxes, fees etc or any other govt services/admin.

    I wouldn’t have a problem with an employer or a estate agent or bank having controlled access to a page generated from it proving who I was and I was allowed to live and work here as would save loads of time as would cover their arses as well that they have done a valid check. It would remove the need for lots of different companies etc to have to collect and store your docs like passport copies.

    So for example in the UK if there was a central gov system where you load up your standard sort of DD/KYC docs and you have an account number and an ap firstly you can go in to one place and update addresses, pay tax etc in one easy place.

    There could then be an option for others to check - you go in to open a new bank account and the banker enters your gov ID number on the gov site which sends you an access permission notification on your phone which you authorise and the banker can see all your official details, passport, etc etc, download a confirmation from the system and save themselves and you a ton of paperwork.

    Similarly if someone is going for a job the employer has to check the system and see that you have permission to work in UK and download the confirmation. The employer knows they aren’t illegally employing and they don’t have a leg to stand on if they don’t bother with the check.

    The ap could also have an official photo ID that covers driving licence so you can use it for buying age restricted goods, ID for flights in UK, Ireland etc, as it saves having a plastic card on you if you so wish but is secure enough to trust.
    There's only so long you can run a country at the whim of Luddites. I thought it was great when I could walk into a doctors surgery 300 miles away from my own and give them a number which answered questions that I would have had to spend ages explaining. This isn't about keeping people out it's about having our own little passport to our histories and to services. Get a grip Tories stop being so precious
  • Foxy said:

    Sean_F said:

    "Palantir has cultivated relationships across the political spectrum, presenting itself as a technological solution to complex public sector challenges while accumulating unprecedented access to British citizens' data."

    Thiel is a genuinely very interesting man, from all I’ve read about him. I’d be interested in meeting him.

    But, I don’t think I’d want to give him access to all my data.
    Recently I read "Goliaths Curse" which describes personal data as the great "lootable resource" of modern times, and that is what Theil is doing. The feedstock of AI is our data, and he wants control of it.
    Remember too that Palantir (and any other American company holding our data) will have to allow access to the American government, in secret.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 20,298

    A quote from Admiral Rickover -

    "I have invented an expression of "Say-Do." All you have to do is say that you will do something and you get lots of applause. You hear that all the time from the executive branch. You do nothing, yet you get the credit. It is a very interesting phenomenon that nobody ever follows up to see if the action has been taken. I see this petty trick going on all the time. People say something. The newspapers laud them before they have done a single thing. Then they
    never do it and go on to some other "Say-Do" thing and get more credit. Pretty soon they become important public figures who are always saving taxpayers' money; yet they have never produced any product or effected any saving. I am like Diogenes. I have been looking vainly for those who actually do what they say."

    When was that from?

    These days we have reaction to what the papers have been told someone will say (and sometimes they don't even say it, let alone do it!)
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,792
    Foxy said:

    Foss said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Apparently Starmer believes ID cards will deter illegal migrants from trying to come to the UK by making it difficult for them to find work.Seems like wishful thinking imo.

    You’d think a former DPP would understand that some people just break the rules.
    A related question is what will be done with those who fail the test? If ID cards do uncover tens or hundreds of thousands of illegal workers, what next? Will the government deport them or just throw them out of work and pay them benefits instead? Or pass another amnesty bill turning illegal workers into legal ones overnight?
    The vast majority of people working illegally are either visa overstayers or those on non-working visas. Asylum applications are invalidated by working illegally, and asylum seekers get moved at short notice quite frequently, so rarely work.

    So deportation would be most likely, and this government has ramped up deportations from a low under the Tory government, though not yet back to historic levels.

    In practice, when I see illegals at the hospital (they get emergency treatment only, and get charged for that) therer never used to be any enforcement.
    It's a long time since I worked in a hospital pharmacy, but when I retired we'd just started identifying those not entitled to NHS treatment and charging them for their medicines. Generally speaking it was more trouble than it was worth.
  • OT the Ryder Cup international stick-ball tournament has seen a lot of money backing Europe against the United States. The conventional wisdom is the home team (America this time) invariably wins but in the last day or so, Europe has been backed in from 3/1 to 7/4.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 7,298
    edited September 26

    Foxy said:

    Foss said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Apparently Starmer believes ID cards will deter illegal migrants from trying to come to the UK by making it difficult for them to find work.Seems like wishful thinking imo.

    You’d think a former DPP would understand that some people just break the rules.
    A related question is what will be done with those who fail the test? If ID cards do uncover tens or hundreds of thousands of illegal workers, what next? Will the government deport them or just throw them out of work and pay them benefits instead? Or pass another amnesty bill turning illegal workers into legal ones overnight?
    The vast majority of people working illegally are either visa overstayers or those on non-working visas. Asylum applications are invalidated by working illegally, and asylum seekers get moved at short notice quite frequently, so rarely work.

    So deportation would be most likely, and this government has ramped up deportations from a low under the Tory government, though not yet back to historic levels.

    In practice, when I see illegals at the hospital (they get emergency treatment only, and get charged for that) therer never used to be any enforcement.
    It's a long time since I worked in a hospital pharmacy, but when I retired we'd just started identifying those not entitled to NHS treatment and charging them for their medicines. Generally speaking it was more trouble than it was worth.
    Well, an electronic ID will presumably carry your NHS membership, so you can scan it before the transaction and know whether and how much to charge.
  • FossFoss Posts: 1,775

    The petition Is already moving towards a million signatures by the end of the day.

    A couple of million in time for the Labour conference next week would be a good result.

    https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/730194?ref=ed_direct

    These petitions are often very interesting in terms of the geographical distribution of signatories. There's a wealth of information there.

    On this one it's interesting that the major urban centres - e.g. London and Birmingham - have very low rates of signatures at present. Maybe they will catch up later. At a first glance I'd say that it looks like areas with strong Reform support have high rates of signing this petition.

    This might just be because it has spread over the parts of social media used by those voters first, but it suggests this won't be a way to win back those voters to Labour.
    Again, another petition where Liverpool is closer to the country than many of the other big cities.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 21,192

    Roger said:

    If thirs poll was closer to the election and therefore worth taking seriously it would be worth considering the weapons available to the governing party

    1. Rejoin the EU without a referendum. That would kill Farage at a stroke
    2. Introduce PR (Ditto)
    3. Deleted (Bad taste)
    4. (Ditto)

    As someone who voted Remain, 1) is delusional. It would turbocharge Farage
    2) is admitting defeat for the Labour Party.

    The problem the government has is that it is mired in Process. Nothing can be done because it takes 5+years to get the legal comedies sorted out.

    Among other things, 1) would require accession talks with the EU. There is simply no way to get those done inside a decade. There would also be none-stop legal challenges in the U.K. courts.

    2) would require a project to rework the UK electoral system. Can’t be done inside 5 years. Again, all the legal cases

    Point 1. If we are trusting polls the latest is 35 /65. That would kill Farage. He might keep his 30% but the 65% would put all other political considerations behind them to make it happen.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 20,298
    Foss said:

    The petition Is already moving towards a million signatures by the end of the day.

    A couple of million in time for the Labour conference next week would be a good result.

    https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/730194?ref=ed_direct

    These petitions are often very interesting in terms of the geographical distribution of signatories. There's a wealth of information there.

    On this one it's interesting that the major urban centres - e.g. London and Birmingham - have very low rates of signatures at present. Maybe they will catch up later. At a first glance I'd say that it looks like areas with strong Reform support have high rates of signing this petition.

    This might just be because it has spread over the parts of social media used by those voters first, but it suggests this won't be a way to win back those voters to Labour.
    Again, another petition where Liverpool is closer to the country than many of the other big cities.
    I wonder whether the Southport attack and the fallout from it has had an effect shifting the city away from Labour. Bootle could be one of the iconic results at the next election.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 10,782
    edited September 26
    Andy Burnham was vociferously in favour of I.D. cards last time around, which is not remembered much now, and conflicts with his man of the people image. I wonder what he will say.

    Interesting choice of policy by Starmer, especially when also combined with the recent Palantir big data contract and influence.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,404

    The petition Is already moving towards a million signatures by the end of the day.

    A couple of million in time for the Labour conference next week would be a good result.

    https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/730194?ref=ed_direct

    These petitions are often very interesting in terms of the geographical distribution of signatories. There's a wealth of information there.

    On this one it's interesting that the major urban centres - e.g. London and Birmingham - have very low rates of signatures at present. Maybe they will catch up later. At a first glance I'd say that it looks like areas with strong Reform support have high rates of signing this petition.

    This might just be because it has spread over the parts of social media used by those voters first, but it suggests this won't be a way to win back those voters to Labour.
    it is growing at about 1,000 a minute. It will reach 1,000,000 I think.
    In some constituencies, over 2% of electors have already signed it.
  • I am going to go and have a lie down I agree with Jezza Corbyn, Owen Jones and Richard Burgon.....
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 47,543
    On ID cards:

    I am instinctively against them; but how much I am against them ("over my dead body" versus "That's a terrible idea") will depend on the proposal. I therefore really want to see detail on the proposal. If there is any...

    Also I don't want Palantir anywhere near it.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 11,994
    Barnesian said:

    The petition Is already moving towards a million signatures by the end of the day.

    A couple of million in time for the Labour conference next week would be a good result.

    https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/730194?ref=ed_direct

    These petitions are often very interesting in terms of the geographical distribution of signatories. There's a wealth of information there.

    On this one it's interesting that the major urban centres - e.g. London and Birmingham - have very low rates of signatures at present. Maybe they will catch up later. At a first glance I'd say that it looks like areas with strong Reform support have high rates of signing this petition.

    This might just be because it has spread over the parts of social media used by those voters first, but it suggests this won't be a way to win back those voters to Labour.
    it is growing at about 1,000 a minute. It will reach 1,000,000 I think.
    In some constituencies, over 2% of electors have already signed it.
    That's just all the small boats people signing it ;)
  • FossFoss Posts: 1,775
    edited September 26

    Foss said:

    The petition Is already moving towards a million signatures by the end of the day.

    A couple of million in time for the Labour conference next week would be a good result.

    https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/730194?ref=ed_direct

    These petitions are often very interesting in terms of the geographical distribution of signatories. There's a wealth of information there.

    On this one it's interesting that the major urban centres - e.g. London and Birmingham - have very low rates of signatures at present. Maybe they will catch up later. At a first glance I'd say that it looks like areas with strong Reform support have high rates of signing this petition.

    This might just be because it has spread over the parts of social media used by those voters first, but it suggests this won't be a way to win back those voters to Labour.
    Again, another petition where Liverpool is closer to the country than many of the other big cities.
    I wonder whether the Southport attack and the fallout from it has had an effect shifting the city away from Labour. Bootle could be one of the iconic results at the next election.
    The other option is that they’re just Not Tory rather than Not Right. That’s it. Anyone else will get half an ear cocked at them and now there’s another largish right group they’ll get listened too as well.

    I think I’ve mentioned it here before, but I’d love to know how much traffic the Sun website gets from Liverpool.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 14,635
    In terms of implementing PR mentioned below, its very doable if you make it a blend.
    Pair up all the constituencies and have double sized ones (keep the "special case seats' separate)
    Do a list system for the nations and regions on d'hondt for the remaining 325
    Workaround for the speaker.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 6,446
    Why didn’t the government just call it a Right To Work ID . If you’re only going to need to produce it when looking for a job .

    Another no10 comms failure.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 37,843
    If interested you can sign the petition against ID cards here.

    https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/730194
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,218

    Foxy said:

    Foss said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Apparently Starmer believes ID cards will deter illegal migrants from trying to come to the UK by making it difficult for them to find work.Seems like wishful thinking imo.

    You’d think a former DPP would understand that some people just break the rules.
    A related question is what will be done with those who fail the test? If ID cards do uncover tens or hundreds of thousands of illegal workers, what next? Will the government deport them or just throw them out of work and pay them benefits instead? Or pass another amnesty bill turning illegal workers into legal ones overnight?
    The vast majority of people working illegally are either visa overstayers or those on non-working visas. Asylum applications are invalidated by working illegally, and asylum seekers get moved at short notice quite frequently, so rarely work.

    So deportation would be most likely, and this government has ramped up deportations from a low under the Tory government, though not yet back to historic levels.

    In practice, when I see illegals at the hospital (they get emergency treatment only, and get charged for that) therer never used to be any enforcement.
    It's a long time since I worked in a hospital pharmacy, but when I retired we'd just started identifying those not entitled to NHS treatment and charging them for their medicines. Generally speaking it was more trouble than it was worth.
    A few years back, we got a rather nasty letter from NHS services. It was because my partner signed up when pregnant; had a miscarriage, then forgot to sign up again when we had our second child which timed her out of eligibility for prescriptions as our daughter approached her first birthday.
    Some sort of scanning system at the pharmacy could drastically cut the nonsense of NHS business services in this sort of situation.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 20,298

    In terms of implementing PR mentioned below, its very doable if you make it a blend.
    Pair up all the constituencies and have double sized ones (keep the "special case seats' separate)
    Do a list system for the nations and regions on d'hondt for the remaining 325
    Workaround for the speaker.

    The main reason for a delay would be getting whatever system you've chosen through Parliament.

    The initial implementation could be quite simple in just about every case.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 14,635
    nico67 said:

    Why didn’t the government just call it a Right To Work ID . If you’re only going to need to produce it when looking for a job .

    Another no10 comms failure.

    Because they want to be able to bolt shit on at will like carbon bollocks and your banking so they don't want to restrictively pigeon hole it
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 14,635

    In terms of implementing PR mentioned below, its very doable if you make it a blend.
    Pair up all the constituencies and have double sized ones (keep the "special case seats' separate)
    Do a list system for the nations and regions on d'hondt for the remaining 325
    Workaround for the speaker.

    The main reason for a delay would be getting whatever system you've chosen through Parliament.

    The initial implementation could be quite simple in just about every case.
    If Labour and Tories agree a stitch up then passage could be very rapid. Both probably think they can come back though as it stands
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 57,300
    Space News

    Vostochny Cosmodrome, Russia has had its ‘levy cut off by the local utility for non payment of bills.

    Question for PB - the CEO of the local utility, wil he

    1) throw himself out of a window
    2) murder/suicide himself and his whole family
    3) ?
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 1,663

    Foss said:

    The petition Is already moving towards a million signatures by the end of the day.

    A couple of million in time for the Labour conference next week would be a good result.

    https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/730194?ref=ed_direct

    These petitions are often very interesting in terms of the geographical distribution of signatories. There's a wealth of information there.

    On this one it's interesting that the major urban centres - e.g. London and Birmingham - have very low rates of signatures at present. Maybe they will catch up later. At a first glance I'd say that it looks like areas with strong Reform support have high rates of signing this petition.

    This might just be because it has spread over the parts of social media used by those voters first, but it suggests this won't be a way to win back those voters to Labour.
    Again, another petition where Liverpool is closer to the country than many of the other big cities.
    I wonder whether the Southport attack and the fallout from it has had an effect shifting the city away from Labour. Bootle could be one of the iconic results at the next election.
    "These petitions are often very interesting in terms of the geographical distribution of signatories"
    Fairly clear that there's FA to do in Whitehaven looking at a few with large numbers of signatures.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 88,066
    edited September 26

    Space News

    Vostochny Cosmodrome, Russia has had its ‘levy cut off by the local utility for non payment of bills.

    Question for PB - the CEO of the local utility, wil he

    1) throw himself out of a window
    2) murder/suicide himself and his whole family
    3) ?

    Private jet malfunction.....
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 57,300
    Roger said:

    Roger said:

    If thirs poll was closer to the election and therefore worth taking seriously it would be worth considering the weapons available to the governing party

    1. Rejoin the EU without a referendum. That would kill Farage at a stroke
    2. Introduce PR (Ditto)
    3. Deleted (Bad taste)
    4. (Ditto)

    As someone who voted Remain, 1) is delusional. It would turbocharge Farage
    2) is admitting defeat for the Labour Party.

    The problem the government has is that it is mired in Process. Nothing can be done because it takes 5+years to get the legal comedies sorted out.

    Among other things, 1) would require accession talks with the EU. There is simply no way to get those done inside a decade. There would also be none-stop legal challenges in the U.K. courts.

    2) would require a project to rework the UK electoral system. Can’t be done inside 5 years. Again, all the legal cases

    Point 1. If we are trusting polls the latest is 35 /65. That would kill Farage. He might keep his 30% but the 65% would put all other political considerations behind them to make it happen.
    The EU accession process isn’t instant. Plus you’d spend more than a parliament getting the legislation through.

    So even if Starmer tried to do this, it wouldn’t happen before the next election. And probably the one after that.

    Most people would just see it as desperate. Read the comments on why people despise the government - from the Left.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 14,635
    Tim Stanley from the 'Graph.....

    Poor Lisa Nandy sounds like she was told about this last night and has spent the morning memorising proposals she personally finds bewildering.
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 1,663

    In terms of implementing PR mentioned below, its very doable if you make it a blend.
    Pair up all the constituencies and have double sized ones (keep the "special case seats' separate)
    Do a list system for the nations and regions on d'hondt for the remaining 325
    Workaround for the speaker.

    The main reason for a delay would be getting whatever system you've chosen through Parliament.

    The initial implementation could be quite simple in just about every case.
    In the d'hondt system with constituency and list MPs how is the constituency workload divided up?
    Presumably the list MPs don't get a free ride?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 57,300

    A quote from Admiral Rickover -

    "I have invented an expression of "Say-Do." All you have to do is say that you will do something and you get lots of applause. You hear that all the time from the executive branch. You do nothing, yet you get the credit. It is a very interesting phenomenon that nobody ever follows up to see if the action has been taken. I see this petty trick going on all the time. People say something. The newspapers laud them before they have done a single thing. Then they
    never do it and go on to some other "Say-Do" thing and get more credit. Pretty soon they become important public figures who are always saving taxpayers' money; yet they have never produced any product or effected any saving. I am like Diogenes. I have been looking vainly for those who actually do what they say."

    When was that from?

    These days we have reaction to what the papers have been told someone will say (and sometimes they don't even say it, let alone do it!)
    Testimony to Congress. 1982, I think.
  • Tim Stanley from the 'Graph.....

    Poor Lisa Nandy sounds like she was told about this last night and has spent the morning memorising proposals she personally finds bewildering.

    That is how politics works these days now that Cabinet has no role in deciding policy.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 88,066
    edited September 26

    Tim Stanley from the 'Graph.....

    Poor Lisa Nandy sounds like she was told about this last night and has spent the morning memorising proposals she personally finds bewildering.

    That is how politics works these days now that Cabinet has no role in deciding policy.
    You are Big Dom and I claim my £5 5 credits on my digital ID card.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 30,095
    edited September 26
    Good morning everyone.

    I've been belatedly catching up on the Stephen Miller speech at the Charlie Kirk Memorial Rally, and .. yes .. it's a shocker. I had to go and look up a couple of Goebbels 1932 speeches to compare ("The Storm is Rising" vs "We are the Storm"). There are plenty of parallels. He's building a false story where the history of civilisation has his religious ethno-nationalism as its central focus. One thing I'll say for Miller is that he waffles less than Goebbels did.

    I'm interested in how here he bends core Evangelical doctrine to his political need. He does the "God is with US (NOT you)" thing throughout, but he also carries allusions to parts of St Paul which are hinges of evangelicalism, and all will know them - eg "we stand for what is good, what is virtuous, what is noble" echoes various lists of virtues eg Philippians 4:18 "whatever is true, whatever is noble, .... think upon these things".

    But Miller ascribes the good things to his movement, then ascribes the evil things to his enemies and promises vengeance and destruction, whilst St Paul writes things like "Do not repay anyone evil for evil", "Vengeance is mine, saith the Lord" and "Do not be overcome by evil, but overcome evil with good" (all Romans 12).

    Viewed through a religious lens (evangelicals could use a phrase "God's Economy"), that's partly why I don't think this will prevail, and that they will have a movement of more orthodox pastors preaching against them. I have no predictions on timescales, though.

    It's worth remembering that Stephen Miller up via Front Page Mag and Breitbart, alongside the likes of Anne Coulter and Robert Spencer.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 47,543

    A quote from Admiral Rickover -

    "I have invented an expression of "Say-Do." All you have to do is say that you will do something and you get lots of applause. You hear that all the time from the executive branch. You do nothing, yet you get the credit. It is a very interesting phenomenon that nobody ever follows up to see if the action has been taken. I see this petty trick going on all the time. People say something. The newspapers laud them before they have done a single thing. Then they
    never do it and go on to some other "Say-Do" thing and get more credit. Pretty soon they become important public figures who are always saving taxpayers' money; yet they have never produced any product or effected any saving. I am like Diogenes. I have been looking vainly for those who actually do what they say."

    When was that from?

    These days we have reaction to what the papers have been told someone will say (and sometimes they don't even say it, let alone do it!)
    One of the things that annoys me, and which has been turbocharged by t'Internet, is that we get reporting of the *reaction* to something before we hear what the actual thing is. I wish there could be a delay, where the thing has to be reported is said first, and the reactions come later. Though that'd be impossible, it'd at least be more honest.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 14,635
    Dopermean said:

    In terms of implementing PR mentioned below, its very doable if you make it a blend.
    Pair up all the constituencies and have double sized ones (keep the "special case seats' separate)
    Do a list system for the nations and regions on d'hondt for the remaining 325
    Workaround for the speaker.

    The main reason for a delay would be getting whatever system you've chosen through Parliament.

    The initial implementation could be quite simple in just about every case.
    In the d'hondt system with constituency and list MPs how is the constituency workload divided up?
    Presumably the list MPs don't get a free ride?
    Every list MP is assigned a 'double constituency' to be the second point of contact for
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 37,843
    "Peter Hitchens
    @ClarkeMicah

    Identity cards won't stop the boats"

    https://x.com/ClarkeMicah/status/1971485745987674476
  • Incidentally, just been reading the BBC 'what we know' section on ID cards. Apparently, it'll be on people's phones.

    I despise smartphones, and don't have one. At least, not yet. Maybe I'll end up being forced to get one thanks to this genius move.

    I wonder just how much thought the government has given to people who are visually impaired and can't use a smartphone. None, I suspect.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 68,227
    This is a good point. But only if we keep the need for ID to vote.



    ‪Lewis Goodall‬
    @lewisgoodall.com‬
    · 26m
    Right now we have the absurdity of compulsory ID for voting without a hassle free ID system. Madness and unfair to those least likely to have passports/driving licences etc- again, poorer people, younger people etc.

    https://bsky.app/profile/lewisgoodall.com/post/3lzq3zbmzcc23
  • MattWMattW Posts: 30,095
    Andy_JS said:

    "Peter Hitchens
    @ClarkeMicah

    Identity cards won't stop the boats"

    https://x.com/ClarkeMicah/status/1971485745987674476

    Of course not - if they had an identity card they would come on a ferry ! But it could help identify those who are entitled to be here, or not.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 14,635
    Or, on PR, reform the Lords.
    Get rid of the hereditaries (91 of them) and have 100 positions delivered by PR regionally every election, with perhaps a beefed up role for these upper house members on committees/oversight/holding to account roles
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 88,066
    edited September 26

    This is a good point. But only if we keep the need for ID to vote.



    ‪Lewis Goodall‬
    @lewisgoodall.com‬
    · 26m
    Right now we have the absurdity of compulsory ID for voting without a hassle free ID system. Madness and unfair to those least likely to have passports/driving licences etc- again, poorer people, younger people etc.

    https://bsky.app/profile/lewisgoodall.com/post/3lzq3zbmzcc23

    For the 26 trillionth time, the issue isn't having a physical (or digital version) it is having a massive interconnected database drawing in information about every part of your life.

    As for voting, there is a very easy way of getting a free voter card if you don't have passport, driving licence etc, but I wonder how you have bank account etc in the modern would without a form of id that also allows you to vote (and you are in a position that you are allowed to vote).
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 47,543

    Incidentally, just been reading the BBC 'what we know' section on ID cards. Apparently, it'll be on people's phones.

    I despise smartphones, and don't have one. At least, not yet. Maybe I'll end up being forced to get one thanks to this genius move.

    I wonder just how much thought the government has given to people who are visually impaired and can't use a smartphone. None, I suspect.
    As ever, one of the first questions that is asked about any proposed system should be "How could it fail?"

    It may be easily possible to have an alternative for phones for some people, but the earlier it is designed into a system, the better. But I would be far from surprised if the muppets in charge hadn't considered that some people don't have phones...
  • MattWMattW Posts: 30,095
    MattW said:

    Good morning everyone.

    I've been belatedly catching up on the Stephen Miller speech at the Charlie Kirk Memorial Rally, and .. yes .. it's a shocker. I had to go and look up a couple of Goebbels 1932 speeches to compare ("The Storm is Rising" vs "We are the Storm"). There are plenty of parallels. He's building a false story where the history of civilisation has his religious ethno-nationalism as its central focus. One thing I'll say for Miller is that he waffles less than Goebbels did.

    I'm interested in how here he bends core Evangelical doctrine to his political need. He does the "God is with US (NOT you)" thing throughout, but he also carries allusions to parts of St Paul which are hinges of evangelicalism, and all will know them - eg "we stand for what is good, what is virtuous, what is noble" echoes various lists of virtues eg Philippians 4:18 "whatever is true, whatever is noble, .... think upon these things".

    But Miller ascribes the good things to his movement, then ascribes the evil things to his enemies and promises vengeance and destruction, whilst St Paul writes things like "Do not repay anyone evil for evil", "Vengeance is mine, saith the Lord" and "Do not be overcome by evil, but overcome evil with good" (all Romans 12).

    Viewed through a religious lens (evangelicals could use a phrase "God's Economy"), that's partly why I don't think this will prevail, and that they will have a movement of more orthodox pastors preaching against them. I have no predictions on timescales, though.

    It's worth remembering that Stephen Miller up via Front Page Mag and Breitbart, alongside the likes of Anne Coulter and Robert Spencer.

    Typo !! "Stephen Miller came up".
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 7,298

    Incidentally, just been reading the BBC 'what we know' section on ID cards. Apparently, it'll be on people's phones.

    I despise smartphones, and don't have one. At least, not yet. Maybe I'll end up being forced to get one thanks to this genius move.

    I wonder just how much thought the government has given to people who are visually impaired and can't use a smartphone. None, I suspect.
    A lot of visually impaired people do use smartphones, as accessibility software exists.

    But it would be foolish to stop a programme because a tiny proportion of people would need some other method of accessing it. You do need those other methods sorting out though
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 25,985
    MattW said:

    Good morning everyone.

    I've been belatedly catching up on the Stephen Miller speech at the Charlie Kirk Memorial Rally, and .. yes .. it's a shocker. I had to go and look up a couple of Goebbels 1932 speeches to compare ("The Storm is Rising" vs "We are the Storm"). There are plenty of parallels. He's building a false story where the history of civilisation has his religious ethno-nationalism as its central focus. One thing I'll say for Miller is that he waffles less than Goebbels did.

    I'm interested in how here he bends core Evangelical doctrine to his political need. He does the "God is with US (NOT you)" thing throughout, but he also carries allusions to parts of St Paul which are hinges of evangelicalism, and all will know them - eg "we stand for what is good, what is virtuous, what is noble" echoes various lists of virtues eg Philippians 4:18 "whatever is true, whatever is noble, .... think upon these things".

    But Miller ascribes the good things to his movement, then ascribes the evil things to his enemies and promises vengeance and destruction, whilst St Paul writes things like "Do not repay anyone evil for evil", "Vengeance is mine, saith the Lord" and "Do not be overcome by evil, but overcome evil with good" (all Romans 12).

    Viewed through a religious lens (evangelicals could use a phrase "God's Economy"), that's partly why I don't think this will prevail, and that they will have a movement of more orthodox pastors preaching against them. I have no predictions on timescales, though.

    It's worth remembering that Stephen Miller up via Front Page Mag and Breitbart, alongside the likes of Anne Coulter and Robert Spencer.

    Please, write an article. You can do it as a word document and send it to the mods.
  • MattW said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Peter Hitchens
    @ClarkeMicah

    Identity cards won't stop the boats"

    https://x.com/ClarkeMicah/status/1971485745987674476

    Of course not - if they had an identity card they would come on a ferry ! But it could help identify those who are entitled to be here, or not.
    How?

    Unless checks are happening, then it won't identify anyone.

    Right to work checks already happen, so ID cards won't help one iota with people who are already refusing to conduct those checks, as they're happy to pay less than minimum wage cash in hand to those here illegally.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 7,315
    All four areas in the Venn diagram of people who wanted ID to vote and people who want compulsory ID cards are interesting.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,850

    nico67 said:

    Why didn’t the government just call it a Right To Work ID . If you’re only going to need to produce it when looking for a job .

    Another no10 comms failure.

    Because they want to be able to bolt shit on at will like carbon bollocks and your banking so they don't want to restrictively pigeon hole it
    How long will it take for them to quietly slip in real time location tracking permissions as mandatory?

    The whole idea needs to be junked. Digital ID is a gateway to councils using it to fine people for putting the wrong bins out.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 68,227
    Andy_JS said:

    Incidentally, just been reading the BBC 'what we know' section on ID cards. Apparently, it'll be on people's phones.

    I despise smartphones, and don't have one. At least, not yet. Maybe I'll end up being forced to get one thanks to this genius move.

    I wonder just how much thought the government has given to people who are visually impaired and can't use a smartphone. None, I suspect.
    A lot of visually impaired people do use smartphones, as accessibility software exists.

    But it would be foolish to stop a programme because a tiny proportion of people would need some other method of accessing it. You do need those other methods sorting out though
    Let's just not introduce ID cards. How about that as an idea?
    Don't fret. It wasn't in the manifesto so I v much doubt it will happen at least this side of GE 2029.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 37,843

    This is a good point. But only if we keep the need for ID to vote.



    ‪Lewis Goodall‬
    @lewisgoodall.com‬
    · 26m
    Right now we have the absurdity of compulsory ID for voting without a hassle free ID system. Madness and unfair to those least likely to have passports/driving licences etc- again, poorer people, younger people etc.

    https://bsky.app/profile/lewisgoodall.com/post/3lzq3zbmzcc23

    For the 26 trillionth time, the issue isn't having a physical (or digital version) it is having a massive interconnected database drawing in information about every part of your life.

    As for voting, there is a very easy way of getting a free voter card if you don't have passport, driving licence etc, but I wonder how you have bank account etc in the modern would without a form of id that also allows you to vote (and you are in a position that you are allowed to vote).
    Here you go:

    "Anyone seeking to start a new job would be required to provide their digital ID, which would be automatically checked against a central database of those legally entitled to work in the UK."

    Central database.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2025/09/26/politics-latest-news-keir-starmer-speech-digital-id-reeves/
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 14,635
    MaxPB said:

    nico67 said:

    Why didn’t the government just call it a Right To Work ID . If you’re only going to need to produce it when looking for a job .

    Another no10 comms failure.

    Because they want to be able to bolt shit on at will like carbon bollocks and your banking so they don't want to restrictively pigeon hole it
    How long will it take for them to quietly slip in real time location tracking permissions as mandatory?

    The whole idea needs to be junked. Digital ID is a gateway to councils using it to fine people for putting the wrong bins out.
    Whatever I download it on (if forced to) will remain in a locked safe unless required. Its not going anywhere to be tracked and spied on
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