Your regular reminder that 2 plus 2 doesn’t always equal 4 – politicalbetting.com
Your regular reminder that 2 plus 2 doesn’t always equal 4 – politicalbetting.com
If, (as I think it is) system vs anti system is becoming just as important an axis of competition as left right, then the benefits of a ‘unite the right’ strategy become much less clear cut.
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In the voice of Tony Soprano
(Well not first after all. Oh what a world!)
Of course the big question is: where do all those Others go?
If those Others are mainly Tory voters, unwilling to vote for a Farage alliance, then many of them may end up doing so if their local candidate is a familiar Tory. And, similarly, the anti-Tory Reform voters might be mollified by a suitably non-Tory local candidate.
So might this be something that could be finessed by having Tory candidates for rural areas and the home counties, and Reform candidates for the Saxon shore and Midlands/Northern towns?
It's really interesting that Labour seem to get a boost at the Lib Dem's expense, but the Lib Dems don't seem to be picking up any moderate Tory voters. The Lib Dems seem to be really missing the opportunity of the present political upheaval.
But then so would Labour, LibDem, Green, Sultanarama, PC and SNP.
That's Canada.
China’s Aircraft Carrier Capability Just Made A Stunning Leap Forward
China has simultaneously debuted its J-35 stealth fighter, J-15T fighter and KJ-600 radar plane operating from its first catapult-equipped carrier.
https://x.com/thewarzonewire/status/1970149944217788875
The battleline is Populist v Anti-Populist.
https://lordashcroftpolls.com/
BREAKING: A fourth charity has dropped the Duchess of York as a patron after it emerged she sent an email apologising to paedophile financier Jeffrey Epstein for publicly disowning him.
These guys are so weird.
Coincidentally, my parents are in Utah on holiday. I'll tell them to look out for it
Should I set my alarm clock for it?
In the USA, it's obvious that wealth and power can get you off all sorts of noxious crimes - see their current president, and not only in relation to Epstein. In the UK, currently, it is much harder - though (say) Gary Glitter or Rolf Harris or the thing that cannot be mentioned or ???? show that we have other dimensions to our problem as well.
We should go more like us, and less like the USA. At the moment, I think that's a really good guideline.
A tag that allowed you to set a time local to an event, which automatically set that time to your local browser's time. Instead of this "Event at 18.00 EST", you would get "Event at 22.00 your time", with a rollover giving the local time for the event.
(/ really, really off-topic)
I have no problem with it getting to "One hundred & eighty seven thousand, nine hundred and twelve".
Are other people feeling rapture ready ?
I expect she will lose all of them
Which makes a change from toe sucking.
https://x.com/SpencerHakimian/status/1970128605050204169
"[Reform] have (sic) recruited a bunch of failed and disgraced ex-Tory MPs – 17 so far."
I had no idea so many had jumped ship.
Like Space Kadets, something has repulsors.
I don't Lib Dems doing any more than Confidence and Supply, having had their fingers burnt last time.
Do we have any verdicts on the Conference yet? Do we get a Glee King and Glee Queen?
Problem is he is not top billing at present
I really hope the UK voters reject Farage's ugly and divisive proposals
I certainly will as will my good lady
Some of whom might also have posts in the administration.
Can't have that.
Note that the current Deputy AG was the guy who negotiated Epstein's first plea deal.
And recently interviewed Maxwell, in a private, unrecorded session, shortly before she was move to a low security prison.
The odd Brit really doesn't figure in such calculations.
The BBC’s North America editor is facing criticism for describing Charlie Kirk as “far-Right”.
Sarah Smith was reporting from Kirk’s memorial service in Arizona on Sunday, where Donald Trump addressed more than 60,000 people mourning the conservative influencer.
In a report broadcast on BBC One’s 10pm bulletin, Smith said: “Mr Kirk built a huge and devoted following for his far-Right views and his eagerness to debate with opponents.”
Liz Truss, the former prime minister, responded on social media: “The BBC and Sarah Smith are utterly disgraceful. She should have her White House press pass rescinded. And come 2029 the whole organisation should be defunded.”
Ms Truss highlighted the comments to Karoline Leavitt, the White House press secretary.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/09/22/bbc-editor-criticised-calling-charlie-kirk-far-right/
What a rotten snitch!
I recently visited a site in London a short walk from the Victoria Line.
To get permission to build 14 flats, developers submitted a 1,250 page planning appliation last year. They are still waiting for a decision.
A default 'yes' would be a gamechanger for projects like this.
https://x.com/Sam_Dumitriu/status/1970161837502251463
This was supposed to be one of their big, impactful policies.
What happened ?
(I recognise that putting Rayner in charge was probably not a great idea.)
Truss probably expects the BBC to take Fox News as a model.
In fact, Liz Truss being a traitor would explain a great deal...
(Jehovah's Witnesses more or less gave up on scheduling events of that type when Jesus failed to turn up in the sky in 1878, 1881, 1914, 1925 and 1975. He is not a bus service on a magic carpet.)
For your "religion and politics" information, education and entertainment this afternoon, here is President Trump's Spiritual Adviser, Paula White-Cain, explaining how the Jewish people were granted the "deed" to Israel, at the time of Abraham documented for the record by the Book of Genesis. This was a fortnight ago, so contemporaneous. It is abotu 60 seconds.
President Netanyahu must be extraordinarily dedicated to his political campaign, because he is sitting through it with the most frozen expression I have ever seen on a politician.
https://youtu.be/m-eAeW_Cpjk?t=84
(The whole thing is gruesome.)
We need to be building communities, not just houses (flats). Failure to do so is just repeating the hideous mistakes of the sixties. And sadly, that involves having more control over developers, not less. But that control has to be timely and according to a plan.
Reform and the Conservatives will no doubt get there eventually- though Reform have to develop a post-Nigel model and the Conservatives need to avoid utter collapse. But as long as politics involves human emotion and ambition, it's going to be tough to get there for 2028/9.
Karoline Leavitt has some commonalities with La Truss: they both sell pork.
Which is literally what the council almost did where we were - between them and the local builders they owned all the land so once planning was sorted they sub-divided the plots into suitable scales for builders and let all the major firms get on and build their bits.
Reform has succeeded in moving the argument onto their turf.
Even among international liberals, I have heard a resigned acceptance that the highly globalised world we knew was an aberration, and that Farage’s speech & the new US visa rules are the new norm - a reaction to rules that went too far.
All said there is an obvious electoral liability for Farage. And that lies in the extortionate fee for a naturalised person to take the final step and get the passport - £1735! This is a massive outlier globally and a racquet to massage the figures from politicians past and present who did not have the courage to run a proper migration policy.
The cost will feel particularly savage to those who have international marriages and have played by the (very expensive) visa rules for years. And are now being backed into paying this fee, to undo the mistakes made over the last decade.
I would be amazed if we don’t see a noticeable shift from Tory to Lib Dem when this thought process plays out. I am far less clear it will cause much of a drift back to Tory / Labour from Reform.
Still a long way to go before the election, this is all Overton shifting stuff.
,
(((Dan Hodges)))
@DPJHodges
·
2h
Reform’s policy started with “deport people who are here illegally”. Fine. Then it was “deport people here legally who commit a serious crime”. Fine. Now it appears to be “deport people here legally”. Where’s this going to end up.
https://x.com/DPJHodges/status/1970134234250596397
You do seem to need the aristocrat, both to spend the cash upfront and to have the right timeframe in mind. In theory, the state could do the same, but nobody would trust them.... probably rightly.
I'm starting to wonder if I need to test it to see if it is a listening device...
Regularly requiring non citizens to justify their right to stay as a guest in a host country is not strange. I’ve had to go through such a process six times when overseas in various places. Thems the rules, I sucked them up and played by them.
That may change in the future ofciourse, but that's roughly what a selection of various polls says at the moment.
AFAICS we have:
Lee Anderson
Danny Kruger
Maria Caulfield
Adam Holloway
Sir Jake Berry
Dame Andrea Jenkyns
Marco Longhi
Ross Thompson
David Jones
This list is from an LBC article:
https://www.lbc.co.uk/article/all-tory-conservative-mps-reform-5HjdD4Z_2/
There's also Nadine Dorries, of course.
(And Ann Widdecombe - thanks @Luckyguy1983. I expect the source of the "failed and disgraced" phrase may be anti-reform commentary somewhere.)
And I'm sure I've seen at least one ex-MP somewhere who is now a RefUK Councillor.)
Any more for any more?
If it's just "ex-Conservatives" amongst their current MPs, then you can add Sarah Pochin, Richard Tice, and Farage himself - which gives a full house.
Some polling from various points in the year on deportations and curbing immigration.
In political terms, limited upside and potential downsides aplenty for Nige and Reform.
The counterpoint to that is hate.
Also: your last paragraph becomes somewhat irrelevant if rules are applied retrospectively.
I think about 50 or 60% of this group will also.be meaning British-born minorities, so that's maybe about 25% of the population at large.
AI tells me this:
British councils are not permitted to grant planning permission if doing so would be contrary to the requirements of the Habitats Directive and the Conservation of Habitats and Species Regulations 2010, particularly when European Protected Species (EPS) are involved. Natural England, as the competent authority for licensing under these regulations, must be satisfied that three statutory tests are met before a licence can be granted for activities that might otherwise be unlawful, including development affecting EPS.
These tests require that there are imperative reasons of overriding public interest, no satisfactory alternative exists, and the action will not be detrimental to the maintenance of the species' population at a favourable conservation status.
Ai
That goes straight back to Natural England being fully responsible, AND the ultimate culprit being their enforcement of European Union retained law.
Get rid of Natural England, get rid of the retained EU law. Say goodbye and please don't stay in touch to their Stalinist stranglehold on British life.