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Nobody is willing to sacrifice themselves for the King of the North – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,711
edited September 30 in General
Nobody is willing to sacrifice themselves for the King of the North – politicalbetting.com

Full story @thetimes hereLabour insiders had said Gwynne was on the brink of taking medical retirement from the Commons — a rare mechanism that eases financial pain of quitting But he’s now become second Greater Manchester MP to say no to resigninghttps://t.co/Xn5OpN1lG2

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Comments

  • When did politics become so infantile?
    A childish tweet during President Trump’s state visit was just the latest unseemly insult by a British MP

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/09/19/shouting-insults-politicians-like-children/ (£££)

    The tweet in question included a photo from last week's state visit, and the text:-

    Did Keir Starmer borrow that suit from someone a lot bigger?

    Crumpled at the ankles, too long in the cuff, loose enough to get another bloke in there with him.

    And someone please tell him about the buttons.

    https://x.com/JamesCleverly/status/1968431569359581443
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 11,074

    When did politics become so infantile?
    A childish tweet during President Trump’s state visit was just the latest unseemly insult by a British MP

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/09/19/shouting-insults-politicians-like-children/ (£££)

    The tweet in question included a photo from last week's state visit, and the text:-

    Did Keir Starmer borrow that suit from someone a lot bigger?

    Crumpled at the ankles, too long in the cuff, loose enough to get another bloke in there with him.

    And someone please tell him about the buttons.

    https://x.com/JamesCleverly/status/1968431569359581443

    Cleverly is right in his observations though. Starmer needs to get a new suit
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 124,021
    edited September 21
    ydoethur said:

    The issue with Burnham is, I just do not see how he can be guaranteed a by-election win on current polling, no matter who stands down for him. Reform are quite capable of upsetting pretty much any seat as a one-off on a 'fuck 'em all' vote.

    So I don't see how he can return to the commons before the next General Election, which pretty much rules him out of being PM.

    I agree, it has to be Ed Miliband.

    Just imagine Ed becomes PM, there will be two really bad consequences

    1) He's PM

    2) I will become even more unbearably smug as I keep on reminding PBers about my 100/1 tip.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 124,021
    edited September 21

    When did politics become so infantile?
    A childish tweet during President Trump’s state visit was just the latest unseemly insult by a British MP

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/09/19/shouting-insults-politicians-like-children/ (£££)

    The tweet in question included a photo from last week's state visit, and the text:-

    Did Keir Starmer borrow that suit from someone a lot bigger?

    Crumpled at the ankles, too long in the cuff, loose enough to get another bloke in there with him.

    And someone please tell him about the buttons.

    https://x.com/JamesCleverly/status/1968431569359581443

    Cleverly is right in his observations though. Starmer needs to get a new suit
    I think I need to do a thread offering Starmer some fashion advice.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 75,396

    When did politics become so infantile?
    A childish tweet during President Trump’s state visit was just the latest unseemly insult by a British MP

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/09/19/shouting-insults-politicians-like-children/ (£££)

    The tweet in question included a photo from last week's state visit, and the text:-

    Did Keir Starmer borrow that suit from someone a lot bigger?

    Crumpled at the ankles, too long in the cuff, loose enough to get another bloke in there with him.

    And someone please tell him about the buttons.

    https://x.com/JamesCleverly/status/1968431569359581443

    Cleverly is right in his observations though. Starmer needs to get a new suit
    Cameron told Corbyn 'do your tie and top button up and buy a proper jacket.'

    And he did!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 75,396

    ydoethur said:

    The issue with Burnham is, I just do not see how he can be guaranteed a by-election win on current polling, no matter who stands down for him. Reform are quite capable of upsetting pretty much any seat as a one-off on a 'fuck 'em all' vote.

    So I don't see how he can return to the commons before the next General Election, which pretty much rules him out of being PM.

    I agree, it has to be Ed Miliband.

    Just imagine Ed becomes PM, there will be two really bad consequences

    1) He's PM

    2) I will become even more unbearably smug as keep on reminding PBers about my 100/1 tip.
    But I am sure you will be subtle as ever about it.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 47,543
    ydoethur said:

    The issue with Burnham is, I just do not see how he can be guaranteed a by-election win on current polling, no matter who stands down for him. Reform are quite capable of upsetting pretty much any seat as a one-off on a 'fuck 'em all' vote.

    So I don't see how he can return to the commons before the next General Election, which pretty much rules him out of being PM.

    The issue with Burnham is that he's no good. The mess he made of the Stafford NHS scandal and its aftermath is an example.

    (And before anyone shouts "He wasn't the minister responsible at the time", as they often do, they need to remember he was "Minister of State (Department of Health) (Delivery and Quality)" right in the middle of the scandal, and hamstrung the initial Francis inquiry.)
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 75,396

    ydoethur said:

    The issue with Burnham is, I just do not see how he can be guaranteed a by-election win on current polling, no matter who stands down for him. Reform are quite capable of upsetting pretty much any seat as a one-off on a 'fuck 'em all' vote.

    So I don't see how he can return to the commons before the next General Election, which pretty much rules him out of being PM.

    The issue with Burnham is that he's no good.
    That's not proven a barrier to being a PM in the past, has it?
  • In summary, everyone would like a better alternative to Starmer. Partly because he isn't very good, and partly because having a PM hang around this long is boring for political hacks.

    Trouble is, there isn't a better alternative. At some point, the nation needs to reflect on why this is so, and why so few PMs turn out to the up to the job.

    In the meantime, and sorry to those who hate to hear this, Vote Starmer Because He'll Have To Do.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 47,543

    When did politics become so infantile?
    A childish tweet during President Trump’s state visit was just the latest unseemly insult by a British MP

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/09/19/shouting-insults-politicians-like-children/ (£££)

    The tweet in question included a photo from last week's state visit, and the text:-

    Did Keir Starmer borrow that suit from someone a lot bigger?

    Crumpled at the ankles, too long in the cuff, loose enough to get another bloke in there with him.

    And someone please tell him about the buttons.

    https://x.com/JamesCleverly/status/1968431569359581443

    Cleverly is right in his observations though. Starmer needs to get a new suit
    I'd prefer a PM who as an utter scruffbag but made good decisions to one that was immaculately neat and was always wrong.

    Then there was Boris, who was often an utter scruffbag and was often wrong. ;)
  • When did politics become so infantile?
    A childish tweet during President Trump’s state visit was just the latest unseemly insult by a British MP

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/09/19/shouting-insults-politicians-like-children/ (£££)

    The tweet in question included a photo from last week's state visit, and the text:-

    Did Keir Starmer borrow that suit from someone a lot bigger?

    Crumpled at the ankles, too long in the cuff, loose enough to get another bloke in there with him.

    And someone please tell him about the buttons.

    https://x.com/JamesCleverly/status/1968431569359581443

    Looking forward to James ‘GQ’ Cleverley’s take on his former glorious leader’s sartorial choices.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 47,543
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    The issue with Burnham is, I just do not see how he can be guaranteed a by-election win on current polling, no matter who stands down for him. Reform are quite capable of upsetting pretty much any seat as a one-off on a 'fuck 'em all' vote.

    So I don't see how he can return to the commons before the next General Election, which pretty much rules him out of being PM.

    The issue with Burnham is that he's no good.
    That's not proven a barrier to being a PM in the past, has it?
    Yes, but we often only find that out once they're tested in the top job. In the case of Burnham, and Boris before him, it's clear he'll be terrible even before he becomes PM, because of past experience.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 53,026
    edited September 21
    Today’s Sunday Rawnsley, brought to you as the sun rises over the mountain skyline, on topic for about seven threads back:

    … nine-tenths of the Lib Dem’s battle is attracting attention… this rebirth of Liberal England was first eclipsed by the scale of Labour’s parliamentary landslide and has since been overshadowed by Reform’s surge in the polls.

    If Sir Ed is not always cutting through, he can fairly protest that it is not for want of trying. He has been astute about spotting empty spaces in the political battleground and moving to occupy the terrain. Reform and the Tories won’t condemn Donald Trump and the Labour leadership can’t. Sir Ed has made himself a voice speaking for the millions of Brits who are repelled by the US president.

    It is on the domestic front that the Lib Dems struggle to make a consistently compelling impression. I suspect this is partly because the political matrix has been scrambled more dramatically than Sir Ed anticipated… Mr Farage is competing for protest voters and doing so more successfully.

    “Soft Conservatives remain the main target,” says a senior Lib Dem. “The continued lurch towards Reform by Kemi Badenoch is great for us.” Nearly all the Lib Dem’s most promising prospects are seats held by Conservatives. Sir Ed presents his party as a refuge for what he calls “the homeless” centre-right voter who is disillusioned with Labour, despairs of the Tories and is disgusted by Reform.

    Relations with Sir Keir Starmer have soured…[but] both surely know that the most consequential struggle of this era is that between the liberal left and the demagogic right. “Politics today is like playing with live ammunition,” says one of the Davey team. “Mess it up and you could put Nigel Farage into Number 10.” There’ll be some kissing and making up to do between the Lib Dems and Labour before we get to the next general election.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 75,396
    I couldn't help thinking of the situation with Asquith in 1918, when he lost his seat in Fife and was seeking a by-election to return to the Commons.

    He tried to persuade Francis Dyke Acland to vacate Camborne for him. Acland wrote back, 'I wish my seat were safe against all comers so that I could resign and you could take it: but it is not.'

    (And he was right, actually, as he did lose it himself at the 1922 election.)

    Burnham is in the same position. And by the time that changes, he will either be too old to lead a Labour party in opposition, or Starmer's hand will have been immeasurably strengthened by winning an election.

    Either way, I don't think he's even worth a trading bet.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 47,543

    In summary, everyone would like a better alternative to Starmer. Partly because he isn't very good, and partly because having a PM hang around this long is boring for political hacks.

    Trouble is, there isn't a better alternative. At some point, the nation needs to reflect on why this is so, and why so few PMs turn out to the up to the job.

    In the meantime, and sorry to those who hate to hear this, Vote Starmer Because He'll Have To Do.

    I think many of us would like Starmer (and the wider Labour party...) to learn from their mistakes and improve. But there isn't much sign of that happening.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 75,396

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    The issue with Burnham is, I just do not see how he can be guaranteed a by-election win on current polling, no matter who stands down for him. Reform are quite capable of upsetting pretty much any seat as a one-off on a 'fuck 'em all' vote.

    So I don't see how he can return to the commons before the next General Election, which pretty much rules him out of being PM.

    The issue with Burnham is that he's no good.
    That's not proven a barrier to being a PM in the past, has it?
    Yes, but we often only find that out once they're tested in the top job. In the case of Burnham, and Boris before him, it's clear he'll be terrible even before he becomes PM, because of past experience.
    Really?

    An image of a certain lettuce springs unbidden to my mind.

    As does a certain blond person with a Russian sounding name.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 53,403

    When did politics become so infantile?
    A childish tweet during President Trump’s state visit was just the latest unseemly insult by a British MP

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/09/19/shouting-insults-politicians-like-children/ (£££)

    The tweet in question included a photo from last week's state visit, and the text:-

    Did Keir Starmer borrow that suit from someone a lot bigger?

    Crumpled at the ankles, too long in the cuff, loose enough to get another bloke in there with him.

    And someone please tell him about the buttons.

    https://x.com/JamesCleverly/status/1968431569359581443

    Cleverly is right in his observations though. Starmer needs to get a new suit
    I think he has lost a stone or two. I suspect those trousers would drape better with a half break if worn with braces rather than a belt.

    I am Derek Guy and claim my £5
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 124,021
    edited September 21
    ydoethur said:

    I couldn't help thinking of the situation with Asquith in 1918, when he lost his seat in Fife and was seeking a by-election to return to the Commons.

    He tried to persuade Francis Dyke Acland to vacate Camborne for him. Acland wrote back, 'I wish my seat were safe against all comers so that I could resign and you could take it: but it is not.'

    (And he was right, actually, as he did lose it himself at the 1922 election.)

    Burnham is in the same position. And by the time that changes, he will either be too old to lead a Labour party in opposition, or Starmer's hand will have been immeasurably strengthened by winning an election.

    Either way, I don't think he's even worth a trading bet.

    For shits and giggles, if somebody decides to stand down for Burnham, Starmer has the power to ensure an all women shortlist.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 75,396

    ydoethur said:

    I couldn't help thinking of the situation with Asquith in 1918, when he lost his seat in Fife and was seeking a by-election to return to the Commons.

    He tried to persuade Francis Dyke Acland to vacate Camborne for him. Acland wrote back, 'I wish my seat were safe against all comers so that I could resign and you could take it: but it is not.'

    (And he was right, actually, as he did lose it himself at the 1922 election.)

    Burnham is in the same position. And by the time that changes, he will either be too old to lead a Labour party in opposition, or Starmer's hand will have been immeasurably strengthened by winning an election.

    Either way, I don't think he's even worth a trading bet.

    For shits and giggles, if somebody decides to stand down for Burnham, Starmer has the power to ensure an all woman shortlist.
    That's not a problem. Burnham just has to identify as a woman and the base will love him/her/them/delete as appropriate.

    Or qualify on the grounds that his bungling over Mid Staffs revealed him to be a total c[MODERATED]
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 53,026
    edited September 21
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    The issue with Burnham is, I just do not see how he can be guaranteed a by-election win on current polling, no matter who stands down for him. Reform are quite capable of upsetting pretty much any seat as a one-off on a 'fuck 'em all' vote.

    So I don't see how he can return to the commons before the next General Election, which pretty much rules him out of being PM.

    The issue with Burnham is that he's no good.
    That's not proven a barrier to being a PM in the past, has it?
    Yes, but we often only find that out once they're tested in the top job. In the case of Burnham, and Boris before him, it's clear he'll be terrible even before he becomes PM, because of past experience.
    Really?

    An image of a certain lettuce springs unbidden to my mind.

    As does a certain blond person with a Russian sounding name.
    Both of those failed in the top job, but that they would do so was entirely obvious to anyone paying attention who didn’t bring to the question any political bias, and was widely predicted in advance.

    Mrs May and Cameron are perhaps better examples of people whose failings were at least mostly unexpected.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 12,000

    When did politics become so infantile?
    A childish tweet during President Trump’s state visit was just the latest unseemly insult by a British MP

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/09/19/shouting-insults-politicians-like-children/ (£££)

    The tweet in question included a photo from last week's state visit, and the text:-

    Did Keir Starmer borrow that suit from someone a lot bigger?

    Crumpled at the ankles, too long in the cuff, loose enough to get another bloke in there with him.

    And someone please tell him about the buttons.

    https://x.com/JamesCleverly/status/1968431569359581443

    Cleverly is right in his observations though. Starmer needs to get a new suit
    He doesn't need a new suit - he just needs to get it adjusted. Best £100 you'll ever spend.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 75,396
    IanB2 said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    The issue with Burnham is, I just do not see how he can be guaranteed a by-election win on current polling, no matter who stands down for him. Reform are quite capable of upsetting pretty much any seat as a one-off on a 'fuck 'em all' vote.

    So I don't see how he can return to the commons before the next General Election, which pretty much rules him out of being PM.

    The issue with Burnham is that he's no good.
    That's not proven a barrier to being a PM in the past, has it?
    Yes, but we often only find that out once they're tested in the top job. In the case of Burnham, and Boris before him, it's clear he'll be terrible even before he becomes PM, because of past experience.
    Really?

    An image of a certain lettuce springs unbidden to my mind.

    As does a certain blond person with a Russian sounding name.
    Both of those failed in the top job, but that they would do so was entirely obvious to anyone paying attention who didn’t bring to the question any political bias.

    Mrs May and Cameron are perhaps better examples of people whose failings were at least mostly unexpected.
    I would have suggested Brown as the classic.

    The signs were there, but they were quite subtle. It's understandable why people missed them.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 47,543
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    The issue with Burnham is, I just do not see how he can be guaranteed a by-election win on current polling, no matter who stands down for him. Reform are quite capable of upsetting pretty much any seat as a one-off on a 'fuck 'em all' vote.

    So I don't see how he can return to the commons before the next General Election, which pretty much rules him out of being PM.

    The issue with Burnham is that he's no good.
    That's not proven a barrier to being a PM in the past, has it?
    Yes, but we often only find that out once they're tested in the top job. In the case of Burnham, and Boris before him, it's clear he'll be terrible even before he becomes PM, because of past experience.
    Really?

    An image of a certain lettuce springs unbidden to my mind.

    As does a certain blond person with a Russian sounding name.
    I mentioned Boris as being a counter-example. I was one of the few right-leaning voices on here who said he'd be a disaster, and gave the reasons why, as far back as 2014 or so. Truss is a slightly odd one, given how she came to power.

    But mostly, we do not know. I expected Brown to be much better as PM than he was, as an example.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 21,192
    ydoethur said:

    When did politics become so infantile?
    A childish tweet during President Trump’s state visit was just the latest unseemly insult by a British MP

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/09/19/shouting-insults-politicians-like-children/ (£££)

    The tweet in question included a photo from last week's state visit, and the text:-

    Did Keir Starmer borrow that suit from someone a lot bigger?

    Crumpled at the ankles, too long in the cuff, loose enough to get another bloke in there with him.

    And someone please tell him about the buttons.

    https://x.com/JamesCleverly/status/1968431569359581443

    Cleverly is right in his observations though. Starmer needs to get a new suit
    Cameron told Corbyn 'do your tie and top button up and buy a proper jacket.'

    And he did!
    ...and then nearly beat the Tories at the next election
  • Corbyn scrubs up well when he puts in the effort.


  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 75,396
    Roger said:

    ydoethur said:

    When did politics become so infantile?
    A childish tweet during President Trump’s state visit was just the latest unseemly insult by a British MP

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/09/19/shouting-insults-politicians-like-children/ (£££)

    The tweet in question included a photo from last week's state visit, and the text:-

    Did Keir Starmer borrow that suit from someone a lot bigger?

    Crumpled at the ankles, too long in the cuff, loose enough to get another bloke in there with him.

    And someone please tell him about the buttons.

    https://x.com/JamesCleverly/status/1968431569359581443

    Cleverly is right in his observations though. Starmer needs to get a new suit
    Cameron told Corbyn 'do your tie and top button up and buy a proper jacket.'

    And he did!
    ...and then nearly beat the Tories at the next election
    So what you're saying is that Cameron was an awesome political strategist, and that Labour needed his help to lose somewhat less badly than expected?
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 15,584
    The current odds on Burnham being next Labour leader are delusional. Even if Gorton or some other seat were available he would risk losing, which would massively damage his image, so it probably isn't happening. If it happened he would face fierce opposition from other candidates for leader, as Labour has not abolished human nature

    Burnham's realistic plan is to (try to - there are no certain seats) become an MP in 2028/9, when he is about 58/59 and wait and see. At least such a plan is worthy of respect.

    The other point is this; to be the next really good leader you have to speak to and for: party members, voters, your MPs, the country. This at the moment requires head on engagement with economic and fiscal realities which Burnham has no record of interest in. Labour MPs currently act as if there is a money tree.
  • ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    The issue with Burnham is, I just do not see how he can be guaranteed a by-election win on current polling, no matter who stands down for him. Reform are quite capable of upsetting pretty much any seat as a one-off on a 'fuck 'em all' vote.

    So I don't see how he can return to the commons before the next General Election, which pretty much rules him out of being PM.

    The issue with Burnham is that he's no good.
    That's not proven a barrier to being a PM in the past, has it?
    Yes, but we often only find that out once they're tested in the top job. In the case of Burnham, and Boris before him, it's clear he'll be terrible even before he becomes PM, because of past experience.
    Really?

    An image of a certain lettuce springs unbidden to my mind.

    As does a certain blond person with a Russian sounding name.
    I mentioned Boris as being a counter-example. I was one of the few right-leaning voices on here who said he'd be a disaster, and gave the reasons why, as far back as 2014 or so. Truss is a slightly odd one, given how she came to power.

    But mostly, we do not know. I expected Brown to be much better as PM than he was, as an example.
    A fair few on the right were saying that Boris would be a disaster, but it was too easy to shout them down as victims of Brexit Derangement Syndrome. Which was a brilliant bit of sloganising.
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 1,634
    I've money on Angela Rayner making a comeback to be in pole position. IMnHO she's the anointed one.

    But if Ed's backers want him in, he'll have to move quicky to head off her and Burnham. Lets see what the Party conference brings.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 56,011
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    The issue with Burnham is, I just do not see how he can be guaranteed a by-election win on current polling, no matter who stands down for him. Reform are quite capable of upsetting pretty much any seat as a one-off on a 'fuck 'em all' vote.

    So I don't see how he can return to the commons before the next General Election, which pretty much rules him out of being PM.

    The issue with Burnham is that he's no good.
    That's not proven a barrier to being a PM in the past, has it?
    Liz Truss bounces energetically on the sidelines, waving....
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 15,584
    IanB2 said:

    Today’s Sunday Rawnsley, brought to you as the sun rises over the mountain skyline, on topic for about seven threads back:

    … nine-tenths of the Lib Dem’s battle is attracting attention… this rebirth of Liberal England was first eclipsed by the scale of Labour’s parliamentary landslide and has since been overshadowed by Reform’s surge in the polls.

    If Sir Ed is not always cutting through, he can fairly protest that it is not for want of trying. He has been astute about spotting empty spaces in the political battleground and moving to occupy the terrain. Reform and the Tories won’t condemn Donald Trump and the Labour leadership can’t. Sir Ed has made himself a voice speaking for the millions of Brits who are repelled by the US president.

    It is on the domestic front that the Lib Dems struggle to make a consistently compelling impression. I suspect this is partly because the political matrix has been scrambled more dramatically than Sir Ed anticipated… Mr Farage is competing for protest voters and doing so more successfully.

    “Soft Conservatives remain the main target,” says a senior Lib Dem. “The continued lurch towards Reform by Kemi Badenoch is great for us.” Nearly all the Lib Dem’s most promising prospects are seats held by Conservatives. Sir Ed presents his party as a refuge for what he calls “the homeless” centre-right voter who is disillusioned with Labour, despairs of the Tories and is disgusted by Reform.

    Relations with Sir Keir Starmer have soured…[but] both surely know that the most consequential struggle of this era is that between the liberal left and the demagogic right. “Politics today is like playing with live ammunition,” says one of the Davey team. “Mess it up and you could put Nigel Farage into Number 10.” There’ll be some kissing and making up to do between the Lib Dems and Labour before we get to the next general election.

    Lack of interest in LDs is built into the system. This won't change unless and until the zeitgeist changes. Their maximum hope is to win 100 seats, each of which in effect adds to the centre left tally for a government led by Labour, and helps rather than hinders the effort to avoid a Reform government. They don't have the demographics or momentum to do more. This is all fine, but not interesting, except for those (mostly PB contributors) who wonder why being outside the Danelaw in the 10th century makes such a fertile field for people who talk about site value rating and bar charts and jump sideways into swimming pools and remind an older generation of Harry Worth.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 56,011
    algarkirk said:

    The current odds on Burnham being next Labour leader are delusional. Even if Gorton or some other seat were available he would risk losing, which would massively damage his image, so it probably isn't happening. If it happened he would face fierce opposition from other candidates for leader, as Labour has not abolished human nature

    Burnham's realistic plan is to (try to - there are no certain seats) become an MP in 2028/9, when he is about 58/59 and wait and see. At least such a plan is worthy of respect.

    The other point is this; to be the next really good leader you have to speak to and for: party members, voters, your MPs, the country. This at the moment requires head on engagement with economic and fiscal realities which Burnham has no record of interest in. Labour MPs currently act as if there is a money tree.

    Putting in all effort to become The Annointed One - then losing to Reform in a by-election - would be a quite hilarious way to have your ambitions crushed.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 23,510
    OK, so I wasn't glued to the news all day yesterday, but all I saw of the LibDem conference was Sir Ed Davey leading an Orange Order flute band around a park. Or something like that.

    I suppose there might be a 30 second mention when they vote to legalise pot, in time-honoured fashion.

    The problem for the LibDems is that they are generally being ignored as an irrelevance.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 75,396
    edited September 21

    OK, so I wasn't glued to the news all day yesterday, but all I saw of the LibDem conference was Sir Ed Davey leading an Orange Order flute band around a park. Or something like that.

    I suppose there might be a 30 second mention when they vote to legalise pot, in time-honoured fashion.

    The problem for the LibDems is that they are generally being ignored as an irrelevance.

    Paddy Ashdown was once described as 'taking on the David Steele role of stamping and shouting around like an angry budgerigar.'

    It works as a simile...
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 47,543

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    The issue with Burnham is, I just do not see how he can be guaranteed a by-election win on current polling, no matter who stands down for him. Reform are quite capable of upsetting pretty much any seat as a one-off on a 'fuck 'em all' vote.

    So I don't see how he can return to the commons before the next General Election, which pretty much rules him out of being PM.

    The issue with Burnham is that he's no good.
    That's not proven a barrier to being a PM in the past, has it?
    Yes, but we often only find that out once they're tested in the top job. In the case of Burnham, and Boris before him, it's clear he'll be terrible even before he becomes PM, because of past experience.
    Really?

    An image of a certain lettuce springs unbidden to my mind.

    As does a certain blond person with a Russian sounding name.
    I mentioned Boris as being a counter-example. I was one of the few right-leaning voices on here who said he'd be a disaster, and gave the reasons why, as far back as 2014 or so. Truss is a slightly odd one, given how she came to power.

    But mostly, we do not know. I expected Brown to be much better as PM than he was, as an example.
    A fair few on the right were saying that Boris would be a disaster, but it was too easy to shout them down as victims of Brexit Derangement Syndrome. Which was a brilliant bit of sloganising.
    The Garden Bridge, and Boris' promotion of that stupid scheme, were my main warning signs that he'd be a terrible PM. And I'd argue that the character flaws that revealed in him - the promoting mates' interests, the not listening, the frivolous wasting of taxpayers' money, the refusal to help the inquiry - all showed up when he was PM, and led to his downfall.

    He didn't learn.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 56,011

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    The issue with Burnham is, I just do not see how he can be guaranteed a by-election win on current polling, no matter who stands down for him. Reform are quite capable of upsetting pretty much any seat as a one-off on a 'fuck 'em all' vote.

    So I don't see how he can return to the commons before the next General Election, which pretty much rules him out of being PM.

    The issue with Burnham is that he's no good.
    That's not proven a barrier to being a PM in the past, has it?
    Yes, but we often only find that out once they're tested in the top job. In the case of Burnham, and Boris before him, it's clear he'll be terrible even before he becomes PM, because of past experience.
    Really?

    An image of a certain lettuce springs unbidden to my mind.

    As does a certain blond person with a Russian sounding name.
    I mentioned Boris as being a counter-example. I was one of the few right-leaning voices on here who said he'd be a disaster, and gave the reasons why, as far back as 2014 or so. Truss is a slightly odd one, given how she came to power.

    But mostly, we do not know. I expected Brown to be much better as PM than he was, as an example.
    There seems to be something built into British politics that allows those who think they willl be great as leaders to be given the opportunity to show that, no, you are actually proving to be shite.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 75,396
    edited September 21

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    The issue with Burnham is, I just do not see how he can be guaranteed a by-election win on current polling, no matter who stands down for him. Reform are quite capable of upsetting pretty much any seat as a one-off on a 'fuck 'em all' vote.

    So I don't see how he can return to the commons before the next General Election, which pretty much rules him out of being PM.

    The issue with Burnham is that he's no good.
    That's not proven a barrier to being a PM in the past, has it?
    Yes, but we often only find that out once they're tested in the top job. In the case of Burnham, and Boris before him, it's clear he'll be terrible even before he becomes PM, because of past experience.
    Really?

    An image of a certain lettuce springs unbidden to my mind.

    As does a certain blond person with a Russian sounding name.
    I mentioned Boris as being a counter-example. I was one of the few right-leaning voices on here who said he'd be a disaster, and gave the reasons why, as far back as 2014 or so. Truss is a slightly odd one, given how she came to power.

    But mostly, we do not know. I expected Brown to be much better as PM than he was, as an example.
    A fair few on the right were saying that Boris would be a disaster, but it was too easy to shout them down as victims of Brexit Derangement Syndrome. Which was a brilliant bit of sloganising.
    The Garden Bridge, and Boris' promotion of that stupid scheme, were my main warning signs that he'd be a terrible PM. And I'd argue that the character flaws that revealed in him - the promoting mates' interests, the not listening, the frivolous wasting of taxpayers' money, the refusal to help the inquiry - all showed up when he was PM, and led to his downfall.

    He didn't learn.
    The dishonesty meanwhile was there right from the start. He was sacked from his first job for a Johann Hari-like tendency to falsify quotes *by his own godfather.*
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,949
    Not sure I agree with the BBC decision to have the winner of Russia's Intervision song contest among the top stories on the news homepage, but there we are.

    It's one spot behind RAF joining NATO missions in eastern Europe.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 15,584

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    The issue with Burnham is, I just do not see how he can be guaranteed a by-election win on current polling, no matter who stands down for him. Reform are quite capable of upsetting pretty much any seat as a one-off on a 'fuck 'em all' vote.

    So I don't see how he can return to the commons before the next General Election, which pretty much rules him out of being PM.

    The issue with Burnham is that he's no good.
    That's not proven a barrier to being a PM in the past, has it?
    Yes, but we often only find that out once they're tested in the top job. In the case of Burnham, and Boris before him, it's clear he'll be terrible even before he becomes PM, because of past experience.
    Really?

    An image of a certain lettuce springs unbidden to my mind.

    As does a certain blond person with a Russian sounding name.
    I mentioned Boris as being a counter-example. I was one of the few right-leaning voices on here who said he'd be a disaster, and gave the reasons why, as far back as 2014 or so. Truss is a slightly odd one, given how she came to power.

    But mostly, we do not know. I expected Brown to be much better as PM than he was, as an example.
    There seems to be something built into British politics that allows those who think they willl be great as leaders to be given the opportunity to show that, no, you are actually proving to be shite.
    The system works better than some but not well. It ought to work better. The fact that to be PM you have to start right at the bottom with convincing a committee of boring people in some godforsaken hole that you should be the party candidate for somewhere you hate is a decent though imperfect filter out of both narcissists and talent.

  • ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    The issue with Burnham is, I just do not see how he can be guaranteed a by-election win on current polling, no matter who stands down for him. Reform are quite capable of upsetting pretty much any seat as a one-off on a 'fuck 'em all' vote.

    So I don't see how he can return to the commons before the next General Election, which pretty much rules him out of being PM.

    The issue with Burnham is that he's no good.
    That's not proven a barrier to being a PM in the past, has it?
    Yes, but we often only find that out once they're tested in the top job. In the case of Burnham, and Boris before him, it's clear he'll be terrible even before he becomes PM, because of past experience.
    Really?

    An image of a certain lettuce springs unbidden to my mind.

    As does a certain blond person with a Russian sounding name.
    I mentioned Boris as being a counter-example. I was one of the few right-leaning voices on here who said he'd be a disaster, and gave the reasons why, as far back as 2014 or so. Truss is a slightly odd one, given how she came to power.

    But mostly, we do not know. I expected Brown to be much better as PM than he was, as an example.
    There seems to be something built into British politics that allows those who think they willl be great as leaders to be given the opportunity to show that, no, you are actually proving to be shite.
    Wanting the Premiership should disqualify you from taking the role.

    Unfortunately, not wanting the job (which I think was the case for Starmer) doesn't help much.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 23,510
    So it turns out that it is LibDems who are responsible for the outbreak of flags festooning the nation.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 45,629
  • So it turns out that it is LibDems who are responsible for the outbreak of flags festooning the nation.

    Good morning

    What on earth are Davey and the Lib Dems doing in a display of Reform flag waving which is simply disingenuous

    Mimicking Reform as Starmer does only adds loads of votes to Reform who are the real deal

    Please do not go down this road
  • I do not see Burnham as PM, not least because his path is too complex and unpredictable, but I do see him being a trouble maker for Starmer
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 23,510

    I do not see Burnham as PM, not least because his path is too complex and unpredictable, but I do see him being a trouble maker for Starmer

    He'll keep his hands clean, and let Powell take on all of the dirty work. Assuming she wins.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,949
    F1: Antonelli down to 9 for a podium on Ladbrokes, so that splendid 'free' bet (he was 14 boosted, could be laid at 10 on Betfair) has gone.

    Albon at 5.2-5.3 for points still up on Betfair.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 34,684

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    The issue with Burnham is, I just do not see how he can be guaranteed a by-election win on current polling, no matter who stands down for him. Reform are quite capable of upsetting pretty much any seat as a one-off on a 'fuck 'em all' vote.

    So I don't see how he can return to the commons before the next General Election, which pretty much rules him out of being PM.

    The issue with Burnham is that he's no good.
    That's not proven a barrier to being a PM in the past, has it?
    Yes, but we often only find that out once they're tested in the top job. In the case of Burnham, and Boris before him, it's clear he'll be terrible even before he becomes PM, because of past experience.
    Really?

    An image of a certain lettuce springs unbidden to my mind.

    As does a certain blond person with a Russian sounding name.
    I mentioned Boris as being a counter-example. I was one of the few right-leaning voices on here who said he'd be a disaster, and gave the reasons why, as far back as 2014 or so. Truss is a slightly odd one, given how she came to power.

    But mostly, we do not know. I expected Brown to be much better as PM than he was, as an example.
    A fair few on the right were saying that Boris would be a disaster, but it was too easy to shout them down as victims of Brexit Derangement Syndrome. Which was a brilliant bit of sloganising.
    The Garden Bridge, and Boris' promotion of that stupid scheme, were my main warning signs that he'd be a terrible PM. And I'd argue that the character flaws that revealed in him - the promoting mates' interests, the not listening, the frivolous wasting of taxpayers' money, the refusal to help the inquiry - all showed up when he was PM, and led to his downfall.

    He didn't learn.
    The £63m squandered on the invisible Garden Bridge was a mere trifle compared to what he got up to in Italy as Foreign Secretary by attending a party run by the KGB.

    To this day I cannot for the life of me understand how this was glossed over. Profumo barely touched the sides compared to this outrageous scandal. And then we made him Prime Minister!
  • Great thread for aircraft nerds (none of whom are in the GOP evidently).

    https://x.com/dave_brown24/status/1968666791380418615
  • ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    The issue with Burnham is, I just do not see how he can be guaranteed a by-election win on current polling, no matter who stands down for him. Reform are quite capable of upsetting pretty much any seat as a one-off on a 'fuck 'em all' vote.

    So I don't see how he can return to the commons before the next General Election, which pretty much rules him out of being PM.

    The issue with Burnham is that he's no good.
    That's not proven a barrier to being a PM in the past, has it?
    Yes, but we often only find that out once they're tested in the top job. In the case of Burnham, and Boris before him, it's clear he'll be terrible even before he becomes PM, because of past experience.
    Really?

    An image of a certain lettuce springs unbidden to my mind.

    As does a certain blond person with a Russian sounding name.
    I mentioned Boris as being a counter-example. I was one of the few right-leaning voices on here who said he'd be a disaster, and gave the reasons why, as far back as 2014 or so. Truss is a slightly odd one, given how she came to power.

    But mostly, we do not know. I expected Brown to be much better as PM than he was, as an example.
    A fair few on the right were saying that Boris would be a disaster, but it was too easy to shout them down as victims of Brexit Derangement Syndrome. Which was a brilliant bit of sloganising.
    The Garden Bridge, and Boris' promotion of that stupid scheme, were my main warning signs that he'd be a terrible PM. And I'd argue that the character flaws that revealed in him - the promoting mates' interests, the not listening, the frivolous wasting of taxpayers' money, the refusal to help the inquiry - all showed up when he was PM, and led to his downfall.

    He didn't learn.
    The £63m squandered on the invisible Garden Bridge was a mere trifle compared to what he got up to in Italy as Foreign Secretary by attending a party run by the KGB.

    To this day I cannot for the life of me understand how this was glossed over. Profumo barely touched the sides compared to this outrageous scandal. And then we made him Prime Minister!
    He really was/is Britain Trump.
  • So it turns out that it is LibDems who are responsible for the outbreak of flags festooning the nation.

    Good morning

    What on earth are Davey and the Lib Dems doing in a display of Reform flag waving which is simply disingenuous

    Mimicking Reform as Starmer does only adds loads of votes to Reform who are the real deal

    Please do not go down this road
    In what way is it disingenuous? I'm sure you're not suggesting that the Lib Dems aren't patriotic.

    And whilst I'm sure Reform and worse would like to claim the Union Flag and the St George's cross as their emblems, they aren't. Consider the Last Night of the Proms. Or thousands of church towers across the land. Or the attached scout huts. It's for all of us, and it's to all our shame that we let them appropriate it. The more flags, the merrier. And the more varied flags, because we all have overlapping identifies.

    Far better than scruffy graffiti on roundabouts, or the cheapo polyester jobs ziptied at half-mast on lampposts. The ones round here are already looking tatty and tangled. That's what's really disrespectful.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 13,192
    Battlebus said:

    I've money on Angela Rayner making a comeback to be in pole position. IMnHO she's the anointed one.

    But if Ed's backers want him in, he'll have to move quicky to head off her and Burnham. Lets see what the Party conference brings.

    I'm afraid Verstappen got pole. Better luck for Angela next time.
  • So it turns out that it is LibDems who are responsible for the outbreak of flags festooning the nation.

    Good morning

    What on earth are Davey and the Lib Dems doing in a display of Reform flag waving which is simply disingenuous

    Mimicking Reform as Starmer does only adds loads of votes to Reform who are the real deal

    Please do not go down this road
    In what way is it disingenuous? I'm sure you're not suggesting that the Lib Dems aren't patriotic.

    And whilst I'm sure Reform and worse would like to claim the Union Flag and the St George's cross as their emblems, they aren't. Consider the Last Night of the Proms. Or thousands of church towers across the land. Or the attached scout huts. It's for all of us, and it's to all our shame that we let them appropriate it. The more flags, the merrier. And the more varied flags, because we all have overlapping identifies.

    Far better than scruffy graffiti on roundabouts, or the cheapo polyester jobs ziptied at half-mast on lampposts. The ones round here are already looking tatty and tangled. That's what's really disrespectful.
    I just do not associate Lib Dems with Farage style flag waving, but of course they are patriotic but they are more likely to fly the EU flag
  • stodgestodge Posts: 15,377

    So it turns out that it is LibDems who are responsible for the outbreak of flags festooning the nation.

    Good morning

    What on earth are Davey and the Lib Dems doing in a display of Reform flag waving which is simply disingenuous

    Mimicking Reform as Starmer does only adds loads of votes to Reform who are the real deal

    Please do not go down this road
    Let's see how your beloeved Conservatives, who have not been afraid in the past to wave the Union Jack round and wrap themselves in it, do at their jamboree.

    How many flags will be in evidence there?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,456
    With no seat imminently available for Burnham making him ineligible Starmer will also be helped by the fact that Labour rules mean there is no VONC in the leader for Labour MPs as Tory MPs have now. Ed Miliband would have to be nominated and challenge Starmer direct in a leadership contest taken to the membership and there is little sign he is willing to go that far
  • stodge said:

    So it turns out that it is LibDems who are responsible for the outbreak of flags festooning the nation.

    Good morning

    What on earth are Davey and the Lib Dems doing in a display of Reform flag waving which is simply disingenuous

    Mimicking Reform as Starmer does only adds loads of votes to Reform who are the real deal

    Please do not go down this road
    Let's see how your beloeved Conservatives, who have not been afraid in the past to wave the Union Jack round and wrap themselves in it, do at their jamboree.

    How many flags will be in evidence there?
    I am sure they will with lots of Jerusalem and Land of Hope and Glory but that is expected and until now has not featured in the Lib Dems and as I said earlier, they are far more likely to wrap themselves in the EU flag
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,456

    So it turns out that it is LibDems who are responsible for the outbreak of flags festooning the nation.

    Good morning

    What on earth are Davey and the Lib Dems doing in a display of Reform flag waving which is simply disingenuous

    Mimicking Reform as Starmer does only adds loads of votes to Reform who are the real deal

    Please do not go down this road
    Since when was waving the Union Jack and Land of Home and Glory mimicking Reform? The LDs are hardly promising the scrap the ECHR are they?

    It is really a bit of Tory conference of old targeted at One Nation Tory Remainers still voting Tory who may be a bit wary if Kemi does back taking us out of the ECHR at the Tory conference
  • HYUFD said:

    So it turns out that it is LibDems who are responsible for the outbreak of flags festooning the nation.

    Good morning

    What on earth are Davey and the Lib Dems doing in a display of Reform flag waving which is simply disingenuous

    Mimicking Reform as Starmer does only adds loads of votes to Reform who are the real deal

    Please do not go down this road
    Since when was waving the Union Jack and Land of Home and Glory mimicking Reform? The LDs are hardly promising the scrap the ECHR are they?

    It is really a bit of Tory conference of old targeted at One Nation Tory Remainers still voting Tory who may be a bit wary if Kemi does back taking us out of the ECHR at the Tory conference
    Not making sense of your comments but I support Badenoch reclusing from Article 8 of the ECHR
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 45,629

    Great thread for aircraft nerds (none of whom are in the GOP evidently).

    https://x.com/dave_brown24/status/1968666791380418615

    That's even worse than the Brexiters channelling the Few with pics of Spitfires of one of the Polish squadrons in the Battle.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 45,629

    So it turns out that it is LibDems who are responsible for the outbreak of flags festooning the nation.

    Good morning

    What on earth are Davey and the Lib Dems doing in a display of Reform flag waving which is simply disingenuous

    Mimicking Reform as Starmer does only adds loads of votes to Reform who are the real deal

    Please do not go down this road
    In what way is it disingenuous? I'm sure you're not suggesting that the Lib Dems aren't patriotic.

    And whilst I'm sure Reform and worse would like to claim the Union Flag and the St George's cross as their emblems, they aren't. Consider the Last Night of the Proms. Or thousands of church towers across the land. Or the attached scout huts. It's for all of us, and it's to all our shame that we let them appropriate it. The more flags, the merrier. And the more varied flags, because we all have overlapping identifies.

    Far better than scruffy graffiti on roundabouts, or the cheapo polyester jobs ziptied at half-mast on lampposts. The ones round here are already looking tatty and tangled. That's what's really disrespectful.
    I just do not associate Lib Dems with Farage style flag waving, but of course they are patriotic but they are more likely to fly the EU flag
    Nah. both, as seen here:

    https://www.amazon.co.uk/Briefs-European-Underwear-Bikinis-Panties/dp/B0CB2FXQ89
  • TresTres Posts: 3,097

    So it turns out that it is LibDems who are responsible for the outbreak of flags festooning the nation.

    Good morning

    What on earth are Davey and the Lib Dems doing in a display of Reform flag waving which is simply disingenuous

    Mimicking Reform as Starmer does only adds loads of votes to Reform who are the real deal

    Please do not go down this road
    In what way is it disingenuous? I'm sure you're not suggesting that the Lib Dems aren't patriotic.

    And whilst I'm sure Reform and worse would like to claim the Union Flag and the St George's cross as their emblems, they aren't. Consider the Last Night of the Proms. Or thousands of church towers across the land. Or the attached scout huts. It's for all of us, and it's to all our shame that we let them appropriate it. The more flags, the merrier. And the more varied flags, because we all have overlapping identifies.

    Far better than scruffy graffiti on roundabouts, or the cheapo polyester jobs ziptied at half-mast on lampposts. The ones round here are already looking tatty and tangled. That's what's really disrespectful.
    I just do not associate Lib Dems with Farage style flag waving, but of course they are patriotic but they are more likely to fly the EU flag
    sounds like a you problem
  • isamisam Posts: 42,734

    In summary, everyone would like a better alternative to Starmer. Partly because he isn't very good, and partly because having a PM hang around this long is boring for political hacks.

    Trouble is, there isn't a better alternative. At some point, the nation needs to reflect on why this is so, and why so few PMs turn out to the up to the job.

    In the meantime, and sorry to those who hate to hear this, Vote Starmer Because He'll Have To Do.

    That’s close to trolling!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,456
    Battlebus said:

    I've money on Angela Rayner making a comeback to be in pole position. IMnHO she's the anointed one.

    But if Ed's backers want him in, he'll have to move quicky to head off her and Burnham. Lets see what the Party conference brings.

    Burnham +12% rating with all voters, Rayner now -30% with all voters in yesterday's Opinium poll
    https://x.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1969500562086642006
  • Stride and Davey both affirm commitment to the triple lock

    They are both wrong and how on earth are we to get out of this mess with politicians inability to do the right thing
  • stodgestodge Posts: 15,377
    Morning all :)

    Though there's the usual tut-tutting from the usual suspects, it's good to see Sir Ed Davey having a bit of fun at the start of the LD Conference. For those who never had the pleasure of attending a Liberal Assembly or even an early Lib Dem Conference, they were fun-filled social events where serious politics is relegated to the Conference Floor and the odd Fringe meeting (and some of them were very odd).

    The heart of it is a social gathering of like-minded people who exchange notes and war stories (usually about winning seats off the Tories or Labour). There's singing, drinking and laughs and I suspect the same happens at other Conferences as well though the Conservatives are likely more decorous.

    That's not to say the big items don't get discussed once you get through the formulaic business - parties are businesses and in effect the Conference functions as an AGM with changes to the way the business is run as much on the agenda as weighty debates about the issues of the day.

    Conferences used to show the true nature of parties - divided, disparate and occasionally rancorous but in the days of media imagery and top down control, any displays of disloyalty are relegated to the furthest edges of the fringe and it's more like a rally. The days when the party leader would be among the delegates on the Conference floor having the same vote as everyone else probably no longer exist. Inconvenient Conference decisions are waved away these days in the name of unity and with social media the slightest notion of dissent is magnified into a full-blown rebellion within minutes and you have forums this like where those opposed can jab and point at the slightest indiscretion.
  • eekeek Posts: 31,425

    Stride and Davey both affirm commitment to the triple lock

    They are both wrong and how on earth are we to get out of this mess with politicians inability to do the right thing

    Pensioners vote and won't vote for anyone who removes the triple lock.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,949

    Stride and Davey both affirm commitment to the triple lock

    They are both wrong and how on earth are we to get out of this mess with politicians inability to do the right thing

    The downside of democracy: governing in the national interest may result in electorally damaging actions.

    Many opt to damage the national interest instead.
  • HYUFD said:

    Battlebus said:

    I've money on Angela Rayner making a comeback to be in pole position. IMnHO she's the anointed one.

    But if Ed's backers want him in, he'll have to move quicky to head off her and Burnham. Lets see what the Party conference brings.

    Burnham +12% rating with all voters, Rayner now -30% with all voters in yesterday's Opinium poll
    https://x.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1969500562086642006
    But you have consistently dismissed [rightly] that there is no path for Burnham this side of the next GE
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,456

    HYUFD said:

    Battlebus said:

    I've money on Angela Rayner making a comeback to be in pole position. IMnHO she's the anointed one.

    But if Ed's backers want him in, he'll have to move quicky to head off her and Burnham. Lets see what the Party conference brings.

    Burnham +12% rating with all voters, Rayner now -30% with all voters in yesterday's Opinium poll
    https://x.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1969500562086642006
    But you have consistently dismissed [rightly] that there is no path for Burnham this side of the next GE
    It was a response to a comment Rayner is now the anointed one
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,456

    Stride and Davey both affirm commitment to the triple lock

    They are both wrong and how on earth are we to get out of this mess with politicians inability to do the right thing

    Though to be fair the annual state pension is now well below annual full time minimum wage.

    After whacking up the minimum wage and refusing to cut unemployment and incapacity benefits, Labour can hardly hit those relatively poor pensioners who are reliant on the state pension and have no private pension to speak of.

    Expect Rayner to whack up taxes on private pension contributions as well as CGT etc in the Budget though
  • OK, so I wasn't glued to the news all day yesterday, but all I saw of the LibDem conference was Sir Ed Davey leading an Orange Order flute band around a park. Or something like that.

    I suppose there might be a 30 second mention when they vote to legalise pot, in time-honoured fashion.

    The problem for the LibDems is that they are generally being ignored as an irrelevance.

    The problem for the LibDems is they are an irrelevance and Ed Davey seems determined to keep them that way.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,949
    HYUFD said:

    Stride and Davey both affirm commitment to the triple lock

    They are both wrong and how on earth are we to get out of this mess with politicians inability to do the right thing

    Though to be fair the annual state pension is now well below annual full time minimum wage.

    After whacking up the minimum wage and refusing to cut unemployment and incapacity benefits, Labour can hardly hit those relatively poor pensioners who are reliant on the state pension and have no private pension to speak of.

    Expect Rayner to whack up taxes on private pension contributions as well as CGT etc in the Budget though
    Reeves, not Rayner. Unless you have an exciting inside story ;)
  • HYUFD said:

    Stride and Davey both affirm commitment to the triple lock

    They are both wrong and how on earth are we to get out of this mess with politicians inability to do the right thing

    Though to be fair the annual state pension is now well below annual full time minimum wage.

    After whacking up the minimum wage and refusing to cut unemployment and incapacity benefits, Labour can hardly hit those relatively poor pensioners who are reliant on the state pension and have no private pension to speak of.

    Expect Rayner to whack up taxes on private pension contributions as well as CGT etc in the Budget though
    The inevitable consequences for this is an increase in the retirement age to 70 and means testing

    I assume you mean Reeves but increaes in taxes are certain
  • Tres said:

    So it turns out that it is LibDems who are responsible for the outbreak of flags festooning the nation.

    Good morning

    What on earth are Davey and the Lib Dems doing in a display of Reform flag waving which is simply disingenuous

    Mimicking Reform as Starmer does only adds loads of votes to Reform who are the real deal

    Please do not go down this road
    In what way is it disingenuous? I'm sure you're not suggesting that the Lib Dems aren't patriotic.

    And whilst I'm sure Reform and worse would like to claim the Union Flag and the St George's cross as their emblems, they aren't. Consider the Last Night of the Proms. Or thousands of church towers across the land. Or the attached scout huts. It's for all of us, and it's to all our shame that we let them appropriate it. The more flags, the merrier. And the more varied flags, because we all have overlapping identifies.

    Far better than scruffy graffiti on roundabouts, or the cheapo polyester jobs ziptied at half-mast on lampposts. The ones round here are already looking tatty and tangled. That's what's really disrespectful.
    I just do not associate Lib Dems with Farage style flag waving, but of course they are patriotic but they are more likely to fly the EU flag
    sounds like a you problem
    May I just ask what is wrong with my comment
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 23,510
    HYUFD said:

    Stride and Davey both affirm commitment to the triple lock

    They are both wrong and how on earth are we to get out of this mess with politicians inability to do the right thing

    Though to be fair the annual state pension is now well below annual full time minimum wage.

    After whacking up the minimum wage and refusing to cut unemployment and incapacity benefits, Labour can hardly hit those relatively poor pensioners who are reliant on the state pension and have no private pension to speak of.

    Expect Rayner to whack up taxes on private pension contributions as well as CGT etc in the Budget though
    The answer is to claw some of it back from well off pensioners by imposing NI on their private pensions.
  • HYUFD said:

    Stride and Davey both affirm commitment to the triple lock

    They are both wrong and how on earth are we to get out of this mess with politicians inability to do the right thing

    Though to be fair the annual state pension is now well below annual full time minimum wage.

    After whacking up the minimum wage and refusing to cut unemployment and incapacity benefits, Labour can hardly hit those relatively poor pensioners who are reliant on the state pension and have no private pension to speak of.

    Expect Rayner to whack up taxes on private pension contributions as well as CGT etc in the Budget though
    The answer is to claw some of it back from well off pensioners by imposing NI on their private pensions.
    Ultimately the state pension will be means tested
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,456
    edited September 21

    HYUFD said:

    Stride and Davey both affirm commitment to the triple lock

    They are both wrong and how on earth are we to get out of this mess with politicians inability to do the right thing

    Though to be fair the annual state pension is now well below annual full time minimum wage.

    After whacking up the minimum wage and refusing to cut unemployment and incapacity benefits, Labour can hardly hit those relatively poor pensioners who are reliant on the state pension and have no private pension to speak of.

    Expect Rayner to whack up taxes on private pension contributions as well as CGT etc in the Budget though
    The inevitable consequences for this is an increase in the retirement age to 70 and means testing

    I assume you mean Reeves but increaes in taxes are certain
    Reeves apologies but yes the Budget will almost certainly see big increases in tax on second home owners, landlords, shareholders, business owners and those with large private pensions if early reports are correct.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,794
    stodge said:

    Morning all :)

    Though there's the usual tut-tutting from the usual suspects, it's good to see Sir Ed Davey having a bit of fun at the start of the LD Conference. For those who never had the pleasure of attending a Liberal Assembly or even an early Lib Dem Conference, they were fun-filled social events where serious politics is relegated to the Conference Floor and the odd Fringe meeting (and some of them were very odd).

    The heart of it is a social gathering of like-minded people who exchange notes and war stories (usually about winning seats off the Tories or Labour). There's singing, drinking and laughs and I suspect the same happens at other Conferences as well though the Conservatives are likely more decorous.

    That's not to say the big items don't get discussed once you get through the formulaic business - parties are businesses and in effect the Conference functions as an AGM with changes to the way the business is run as much on the agenda as weighty debates about the issues of the day.

    Conferences used to show the true nature of parties - divided, disparate and occasionally rancorous but in the days of media imagery and top down control, any displays of disloyalty are relegated to the furthest edges of the fringe and it's more like a rally. The days when the party leader would be among the delegates on the Conference floor having the same vote as everyone else probably no longer exist. Inconvenient Conference decisions are waved away these days in the name of unity and with social media the slightest notion of dissent is magnified into a full-blown rebellion within minutes and you have forums this like where those opposed can jab and point at the slightest indiscretion.

    Good morning everybody.On a fine sunny morning, with the sun glinting off my computer screen!

    I went to few Liberal Conferences in the 70's/80's and they were as Mr Stodge describes; cheerful affairs, where the great and good of the Party mixed with the delegates, especially during the evening socialising.

    I've listened to several Party Leaders in the last few days and what struck me about Ed Davey was that he was cheerful. Starmer came across as somewhat indecisive and still finding his way and both Badenoch and Farage as self-righteous and unwilling to listen. If we hear more of the LibDem Front Bench in the next few days I suspect it will be a Good Thing for the party, and the country.
    The world in general and this country in particular are in a bad place at the moment and a bit of positivity won't go amiss.

    And before anyone seizes on about 2% of my post, yes, we in Britain are a great deal better off than many other people.But that doesn't mean things couldn't all be better for everybody.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 12,000
    edited September 21

    Stride and Davey both affirm commitment to the triple lock

    They are both wrong and how on earth are we to get out of this mess with politicians inability to do the right thing

    The downside of democracy: governing in the national interest may result in electorally damaging actions.

    Many opt to damage the national interest instead.
    The triple lock is an interesting phenomenon - it's relatively new but is now allocated the same kind of national idolisation as the NHS.

    Removing it does not save the government much money in the short/medium term, nor does would affect current pensioners particularly badly. It's a long term fiscal issue that carries gigantic short-term political risk, so there is no chance of it removed by any party.
  • ydoethur said:

    OK, so I wasn't glued to the news all day yesterday, but all I saw of the LibDem conference was Sir Ed Davey leading an Orange Order flute band around a park. Or something like that.

    I suppose there might be a 30 second mention when they vote to legalise pot, in time-honoured fashion.

    The problem for the LibDems is that they are generally being ignored as an irrelevance.

    Paddy Ashdown was once described as 'taking on the David Steele role of stamping and shouting around like an angry budgerigar.'

    It works as a simile...
    And ‘chat show Charlie’ was never off the box.

    David Steele had a dozen or so MPs, Ashdown twice that, Ed Davey has 72 MPs so needs to move on to serious politics. Continuing the stunts and student politics has led to the party being overtaken in public consciousness by Reform, who have only four or five MPs.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,794
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Stride and Davey both affirm commitment to the triple lock

    They are both wrong and how on earth are we to get out of this mess with politicians inability to do the right thing

    Though to be fair the annual state pension is now well below annual full time minimum wage.

    After whacking up the minimum wage and refusing to cut unemployment and incapacity benefits, Labour can hardly hit those relatively poor pensioners who are reliant on the state pension and have no private pension to speak of.

    Expect Rayner to whack up taxes on private pension contributions as well as CGT etc in the Budget though
    The inevitable consequences for this is an increase in the retirement age to 70 and means testing

    I assume you mean Reeves but increaes in taxes are certain
    Reeves apologies but yes the Budget will almost certainly see big increases in tax on second home owners, landlords, shareholders, business owners and those with large private pensions if early reports are correct.
    Sounds good!
  • Eabhal said:

    Stride and Davey both affirm commitment to the triple lock

    They are both wrong and how on earth are we to get out of this mess with politicians inability to do the right thing

    The downside of democracy: governing in the national interest may result in electorally damaging actions.

    Many opt to damage the national interest instead.
    The triple lock is an interesting phenomenon - it's relatively new but is now allocated the same kind of national emulation as the NHS.

    Removing it does not save the government much money in the short/medium term, nor does would affect current pensioners particularly badly. It's a long term fiscal issue that carries gigantic short-term political risk, so there is no chance of it removed by any party.
    The triple lock is hated on social media as a sign politicians are in thrall to boomer pensioners who vote to impoverish workers and the young. My belief is this came originally from Russian trolls but we are where we are.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 28,325
    edited September 21

    HYUFD said:

    Stride and Davey both affirm commitment to the triple lock

    They are both wrong and how on earth are we to get out of this mess with politicians inability to do the right thing

    Though to be fair the annual state pension is now well below annual full time minimum wage.

    After whacking up the minimum wage and refusing to cut unemployment and incapacity benefits, Labour can hardly hit those relatively poor pensioners who are reliant on the state pension and have no private pension to speak of.

    Expect Rayner to whack up taxes on private pension contributions as well as CGT etc in the Budget though
    The answer is to claw some of it back from well off pensioners by imposing NI on their private pensions.
    Pension contributions are paid after national insurance has already been deducted (unless via salary sacrifice).

    And if people don't get some tax advantage from personal and work pensions then there would be no point in contributing to them.

    Nobody is going to put any more money than they have to into a pension which cannot be accessed until they're at least 57 if the tax advantage is no better than in a stocks and shares ISA.

    Not to mention fees on work pensions are very likely higher than those in a stocks and shares ISA.

    The better solution would be to get rid of national insurance entirely and increase income tax by an equivalent amount.

  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 12,000

    Eabhal said:

    Stride and Davey both affirm commitment to the triple lock

    They are both wrong and how on earth are we to get out of this mess with politicians inability to do the right thing

    The downside of democracy: governing in the national interest may result in electorally damaging actions.

    Many opt to damage the national interest instead.
    The triple lock is an interesting phenomenon - it's relatively new but is now allocated the same kind of national emulation as the NHS.

    Removing it does not save the government much money in the short/medium term, nor does would affect current pensioners particularly badly. It's a long term fiscal issue that carries gigantic short-term political risk, so there is no chance of it removed by any party.
    The triple lock is hated on social media as a sign politicians are in thrall to boomer pensioners who vote to impoverish workers and the young. My belief is this came originally from Russian trolls but we are where we are.
    Depends which social media - on Facebook it would appear the Russian trolls have worked very hard to persuade boomers that getting rid of the triple lock would amount to geronticide, and therefore have undermined the UK's public finances.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Stride and Davey both affirm commitment to the triple lock

    They are both wrong and how on earth are we to get out of this mess with politicians inability to do the right thing

    Though to be fair the annual state pension is now well below annual full time minimum wage.

    After whacking up the minimum wage and refusing to cut unemployment and incapacity benefits, Labour can hardly hit those relatively poor pensioners who are reliant on the state pension and have no private pension to speak of.

    Expect Rayner to whack up taxes on private pension contributions as well as CGT etc in the Budget though
    The inevitable consequences for this is an increase in the retirement age to 70 and means testing

    I assume you mean Reeves but increaes in taxes are certain
    Reeves apologies but yes the Budget will almost certainly see big increases in tax on second home owners, landlords, shareholders, business owners and those with large private pensions if early reports are correct.
    Most of these reports are just speculation driven by political rivals identifying, one at a time, every conceivable tax increase that has not already been ruled out. I've seen more dispassionate analysis by football fans at the opening of a new transfer window.
  • Trevor Phillips on Sky has just showed a chart that shows voting in intentions among people who attended stare and private schools and labour at 38% dominated private schools, way above reform on 25% and conservatives on 17%

    Maybe unexpected ?

  • OK, so I wasn't glued to the news all day yesterday, but all I saw of the LibDem conference was Sir Ed Davey leading an Orange Order flute band around a park. Or something like that.

    I suppose there might be a 30 second mention when they vote to legalise pot, in time-honoured fashion.

    The problem for the LibDems is that they are generally being ignored as an irrelevance.

    The problem for the LibDems is they are an irrelevance and Ed Davey seems determined to keep them that way.
    The LibDems have found their comfort zone in the Waitrose belt.

    And through nimbyism and waspism are pandering to it.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,794

    Trevor Phillips on Sky has just showed a chart that shows voting in intentions among people who attended stare and private schools and labour at 38% dominated private schools, way above reform on 25% and conservatives on 17%

    Maybe unexpected ?

    Guilt?
  • Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Stride and Davey both affirm commitment to the triple lock

    They are both wrong and how on earth are we to get out of this mess with politicians inability to do the right thing

    The downside of democracy: governing in the national interest may result in electorally damaging actions.

    Many opt to damage the national interest instead.
    The triple lock is an interesting phenomenon - it's relatively new but is now allocated the same kind of national emulation as the NHS.

    Removing it does not save the government much money in the short/medium term, nor does would affect current pensioners particularly badly. It's a long term fiscal issue that carries gigantic short-term political risk, so there is no chance of it removed by any party.
    The triple lock is hated on social media as a sign politicians are in thrall to boomer pensioners who vote to impoverish workers and the young. My belief is this came originally from Russian trolls but we are where we are.
    Depends which social media - on Facebook it would appear the Russian trolls have worked very hard to persuade boomers that getting rid of the triple lock would amount to geronticide, and therefore have undermined the UK's public finances.
    The key thing about Russian trolls is that they aren't doing the old Radio Moscow thing of pushing the Communist line on everything. They don't push a single line. Collectively, they push lots of different lines to maximise dissent and anger.
  • John Stapleton dies at 79
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,218

    HYUFD said:

    Stride and Davey both affirm commitment to the triple lock

    They are both wrong and how on earth are we to get out of this mess with politicians inability to do the right thing

    Though to be fair the annual state pension is now well below annual full time minimum wage.

    After whacking up the minimum wage and refusing to cut unemployment and incapacity benefits, Labour can hardly hit those relatively poor pensioners who are reliant on the state pension and have no private pension to speak of.

    Expect Rayner to whack up taxes on private pension contributions as well as CGT etc in the Budget though
    The answer is to claw some of it back from well off pensioners by imposing NI on their private pensions.
    I wouldn't describe a private pension of 95p a week as rich !
  • StereodogStereodog Posts: 1,177

    OK, so I wasn't glued to the news all day yesterday, but all I saw of the LibDem conference was Sir Ed Davey leading an Orange Order flute band around a park. Or something like that.

    I suppose there might be a 30 second mention when they vote to legalise pot, in time-honoured fashion.

    The problem for the LibDems is that they are generally being ignored as an irrelevance.

    The problem for the LibDems is they are an irrelevance and Ed Davey seems determined to keep them that way.
    I don't know why you think it's a problem. If the national media largely ignore you but you still pick up seats then that's the best position to be in. I was arguing this to a Lib Dem friend who was moaning about lack of coverage on the BBC. The Lib Dems win seats by ruthlessly targeting local opportunities. The one time they tried to run a properly national campaign in 2019 ended in disappointment.
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 1,634
    HYUFD said:

    Battlebus said:

    I've money on Angela Rayner making a comeback to be in pole position. IMnHO she's the anointed one.

    But if Ed's backers want him in, he'll have to move quicky to head off her and Burnham. Lets see what the Party conference brings.

    Burnham +12% rating with all voters, Rayner now -30% with all voters in yesterday's Opinium poll
    https://x.com/OpiniumResearch/status/1969500562086642006
    Don't disagree she's marmite to the voters, but we're talking about internal labour politics - and whatever shape that party will be like after the Corbyn/Sultana split is sorted out. That and the appeal of a woman Labour PM (without doing the hard graft of appealing to the electorate)
  • Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Stride and Davey both affirm commitment to the triple lock

    They are both wrong and how on earth are we to get out of this mess with politicians inability to do the right thing

    The downside of democracy: governing in the national interest may result in electorally damaging actions.

    Many opt to damage the national interest instead.
    The triple lock is an interesting phenomenon - it's relatively new but is now allocated the same kind of national emulation as the NHS.

    Removing it does not save the government much money in the short/medium term, nor does would affect current pensioners particularly badly. It's a long term fiscal issue that carries gigantic short-term political risk, so there is no chance of it removed by any party.
    The triple lock is hated on social media as a sign politicians are in thrall to boomer pensioners who vote to impoverish workers and the young. My belief is this came originally from Russian trolls but we are where we are.
    Depends which social media - on Facebook it would appear the Russian trolls have worked very hard to persuade boomers that getting rid of the triple lock would amount to geronticide, and therefore have undermined the UK's public finances.
    Well, for a start, one clue is the use of the word boomers. We do not really use that term, and if we did, then our baby boom was later than the American one, so our boomers are not quite of pensionable age. It all smacks of some KGB analyst in Madeupgrad combining memes from the wrong side of the Atlantic rather than an organic, homegrown movement.
  • Stereodog said:

    OK, so I wasn't glued to the news all day yesterday, but all I saw of the LibDem conference was Sir Ed Davey leading an Orange Order flute band around a park. Or something like that.

    I suppose there might be a 30 second mention when they vote to legalise pot, in time-honoured fashion.

    The problem for the LibDems is that they are generally being ignored as an irrelevance.

    The problem for the LibDems is they are an irrelevance and Ed Davey seems determined to keep them that way.
    I don't know why you think it's a problem. If the national media largely ignore you but you still pick up seats then that's the best position to be in. I was arguing this to a Lib Dem friend who was moaning about lack of coverage on the BBC. The Lib Dems win seats by ruthlessly targeting local opportunities. The one time they tried to run a properly national campaign in 2019 ended in disappointment.
    Yes, LibDems are NOTA. Trouble is, they are being outflanked even as NOTA.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 12,000

    Trevor Phillips on Sky has just showed a chart that shows voting in intentions among people who attended stare and private schools and labour at 38% dominated private schools, way above reform on 25% and conservatives on 17%

    Maybe unexpected ?

    People still haven't got into their heads that Labour voting share correlates closely with household income.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 15,377

    Stride and Davey both affirm commitment to the triple lock

    They are both wrong and how on earth are we to get out of this mess with politicians inability to do the right thing

    The problem is trying to define "pensioners" as a single homogenous block. All they have in common is their age - economicaly and financially, they are as diverse as the rest of us.

    I had no problem with Reeves wanting to reduce eligibility for the Winter Fuel Allowance - had she said, for example, it wouldn't be available to higher rate taxpayers but only to those paying just basic rate or those solely on pension credit, I think most people would have, if not supported it then understood it.

    The problem with the previous regime was it was easy and cheap to administer - as soon as you got the pension you were eligible for the allowance whatever your financial situation so both the poorest and wealthiest pensioners got it and that was an obvious anomaly which needed to be resolved.

    The way Reeves went about it was as hamfisted and politically inept as you could imagine but the basic notion wasn't wrong and isn't wrong. Universal entitlement to benefits costs in every sense.

    Much has been done to ensure those of advanced years have a decent standard of living but much remains to be done.
  • StereodogStereodog Posts: 1,177

    Stereodog said:

    OK, so I wasn't glued to the news all day yesterday, but all I saw of the LibDem conference was Sir Ed Davey leading an Orange Order flute band around a park. Or something like that.

    I suppose there might be a 30 second mention when they vote to legalise pot, in time-honoured fashion.

    The problem for the LibDems is that they are generally being ignored as an irrelevance.

    The problem for the LibDems is they are an irrelevance and Ed Davey seems determined to keep them that way.
    I don't know why you think it's a problem. If the national media largely ignore you but you still pick up seats then that's the best position to be in. I was arguing this to a Lib Dem friend who was moaning about lack of coverage on the BBC. The Lib Dems win seats by ruthlessly targeting local opportunities. The one time they tried to run a properly national campaign in 2019 ended in disappointment.
    Yes, LibDems are NOTA. Trouble is, they are being outflanked even as NOTA.
    We'll only be able to tell that after the next election. The only evidence we have thus far is that the Lib Dems have been remarkably good at translating their support into actually winning seats and that Reform are remarkably bad at it
This discussion has been closed.