The public want Danny Kruger to trigger a by-election – politicalbetting.com
The public want Danny Kruger to trigger a by-election – politicalbetting.com
With Tory MP Danny Kruger defecting to Reform UK yesterday, 67% of Britons say MPs who switch parties should have to fight a by-election, including 60% of Reform UK votersyougov.co.uk/topics/polit…
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Con vs Reform if he changes his mind, the vox pops were very much head to head
And I suspect Reform probably should go for it. Now, sure, it's a risk, but the Conservatives are moribund and Labour deeply unpopular.
I suspect they would win fairly comforably, and could use victory for some good publicity, and to avoid being characterised as 'just as bad as the other lot'.
In November 2024, Reckless appeared at Reform UK's Wales conference as a speaker and member of the party.[1] He was later confirmed by Caroline Jones, also of Reform Wales, to be working on Reform's policies for Wales at the 2026 election
'We elected a Conservative he should serve as a Conservative or let us elect another' voices versus
'Lifelong Conservative but they are nowhere, time to roll the dice even if Reform are a bit iffy' (paraphrased) voices
The Tories won the wards making up Wilts East by about 2000 over Reform in May (16k total votes) with Libs about 1300 further behind. Lab and Green pretty much sat it out
Wards - 9 Tory, 3 Reform (2 in Tidbury on tiny pitiful turnout compared to the rest) 2 Lib Dem and one where an Indy hammered all of then
Id be very tempted by ConHold at the odds I expect would be on offer
Lab and Green can be safely discounted
That being said, LDs are by election monsters........
A scheduled Air France flight from London Heathrow this morning departed with no Channel migrants aboard. And migrants were also absent from another aircraft this afternoon which had previously been pinpointed by a French charity as a Home Office removals flight.
The guy who has got the temporary injunction was chosen as he was supposedly an easy clear cut case.
I also think changing PM should mean a GE. Sunak, Truss, Brown, May all were crap partly because the public never chose them. Boris did hold one pretty quickly
How would we price up this Kruger By Election?
They arent polling well enough to risk a solid Tory seat by election from fourth
Plans to scrap Scotland's controversial not proven verdict have been approved by MSPs.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cy8rndyyp7vo
Nobody, on any side, does it.
The world is not divided between radical right politicians like Milei and CentristDadism. Don't be silly. Radical right parties have had success and failures. They advanced in the recent Norwegian general election, but lost the election to the centre-left. They fell back in Poland in June, losing to a centrist. The centre-left also won in South Korea that month. And so on.
The UK economy is nothing like the Argentinian one and Milei-esque politics are not going to be needed or wanted.
And it's Milei, one 'l'. If you're going to hero-worship the guy, learn to spell his name.
Random Factoid.
There is a brand of wind turbines called Proven. If they went bust they would be Not Proven. Wonderfully, the founder was called Gordon Proven.
They are Scottish, so the cutoff wind speed (when it stops itself to avoid damage) is about 160mph, rather than the more normal 60mph.
The constituency is composed of:
The Borough of Swindon wards of Chiseldon & Lawn (part), Ridgeway, and Wroughton & Wichelstowe.
They are shown on the map you link to.
Swindon held no elections in 2025.
So all calculations of who won what then are misleading.
Also, the seriously impressive results he arguably delivered early on have kinda run out. The peso keeps sinking and he's burning through foreign reserves to prop it up. Growth has stalled. The $Libra cryptocurrency scandal has also hurt him. I'm sure there are several more chapters to be told in his story, but don't listen to his libertarian fan club. He's facing problems, economically and psephologically.
(Sorry)
That the public want a by-election Kruger should blame on whichever politician it was who came up with the idea that defecting MPs should seek re-election. It was 2014. Two Tories defected to UKIP and triggered by-elections. Yeah, whoever was the UKIP party leader then. What was his name? Migel Narage or something?
I think defecting councillors should also face a by-election.
Having not proven muddies the waters, I hate the concept of no smoke without fire.
Day 2 trapped inside Mac OS 26....Housemate Francis is still extremely unhappy and taken to wearing sunglasses while working.
If people are in reality voting for a party, and that's why we need a by-election, then why are we using FPTP? Introduce PR.
https://x.com/FraserNelson/status/1968343080568074294
A country like that is a failed state. A failed state with oil.
Are you thinking what I’m thinking, children?
I didn't say it the world was divided between the failed Social Dadocracy and Milleism - but that I suspect the latter will likely imposed upon us if we don't vote for it first, by the IMF
Could you imagine a drink with Moran, or Cooper, or Davey? I can't. I'd rather have a pint with Farage or e.g. Jack Straw any day of the week.
Personally, it seems to me like it should be the rule that you have to have a by-election. A large proportion of the public aren't voting for the individual, they are voting for the party on the ticket, so the individual defecting is going against their stated wishes.
LD win Wroughton (LD 30 Ref 25 Con 20 approx)
Ref win Chiseldon and Ridgeway from Con by about 5 points
Thats a forecast based on 30 Ref 17 Con nationally
Would make the Con lead approx 1500 over Ref and approx 2800 over LD if added to the totals from the 15 Wiltshire council wards voted on in May
For illustrative purposes only.
Tories would be the value bet as money would lump on Reform
Just because the lanyard class know they'll be the first for the job cuts, they tend to stick their fingers in their ears about it.
They should use the tunnel or ferries.
And watching the events for Trump this afternoon I agree with Mark Stone of Sky
He said 'You could see Trump was loving it but the missing ingredient was the public and it was so sterile'
In most seats Reform can't win if non Reform voters act intelligently.
Sub plot: if there were a by election a loonie ultra right party (can't remember their names) would stand, taking votes off Reform. A Jezbollah candidate might take votes off Labour.
In this election which isn't occurring IMO LDs would start at evens. Reform 6/4.
An aside on reading unfiltered religion into politics, Marjorie Taylor-Greene's reasons for wanting to bring forward a bill to ban weather modification (eg cloud seeding), which came up on my feed:
https://youtu.be/2iCih1gAQBo?t=566
Straight from her dogma, avoiding the brain or thought or reflection or logic, and into the political programme.
In addition to the complete absence of any thought filter, and the cartoon theology, there's also the practical implementation problem that the EPA she wants to use to enforce the ban is in process of being effectively abolished by Mr Trump. If it's 'perfect creation', she hasn't explained (or presumably thought about) why she supports pumping more and more fossil fuel emissions into it.
Some of them seem to be like this on Israel in their thought processes.
He is a very small cog in the machine. That’s how he acts.
Anyway, first we would have
- government forcing the banks and pension funds to invest at a low rate in government bonds.
- When that goes tits up, money printing
- Capital flight
- A broken back economy (Argentina style) for X years.
If you go into a local bank and ask for a mortgage, you'll see the staff do it when they go into the internal offices.
For smaller offices (say lawyers) probably not, although it's been 20 years since I've been in a lawyer's office (my immediate thoughts were i: nice desks, and ii: can't you f*****s file things?).
So yes. If you're employed in an office/organisation that has a number of staff big enough to need security and a HR dept, I'd say definitely.
Two-tier Keir?
If you were serious, couldn't you also just have a dedicated coach on the back of the Eurostar for those being deported, so you don't even need to worry about how to deal possible issues around public safety (or public being twats and causing a scene to stop the flight, as they have in the past).