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The public want Danny Kruger to trigger a by-election – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,685
edited September 17 in General
The public want Danny Kruger to trigger a by-election – politicalbetting.com

With Tory MP Danny Kruger defecting to Reform UK yesterday, 67% of Britons say MPs who switch parties should have to fight a by-election, including 60% of Reform UK votersyougov.co.uk/topics/polit…

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  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 14,273
    Hes ruled it out this morning.
    Con vs Reform if he changes his mind, the vox pops were very much head to head
  • Hes ruled it out this morning.
    Con vs Reform if he changes his mind, the vox pops were very much head to head

    What a loser, he's worse than Mark Reckless.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,638
    edited September 17

    Hes ruled it out this morning.
    Con vs Reform if he changes his mind, the vox pops were very much head to head

    What a loser, he's worse than Mark Reckless.
    Now that is a blast from the past.

    In November 2024, Reckless appeared at Reform UK's Wales conference as a speaker and member of the party.[1] He was later confirmed by Caroline Jones, also of Reform Wales, to be working on Reform's policies for Wales at the 2026 election
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,703
    rcs1000 said:

    On topic: of course they do.

    And I suspect Reform probably should go for it. Now, sure, it's a risk, but the Conservatives are moribund and Labour deeply unpopular.

    I suspect they would win fairly comforably, and could use victory for some good publicity, and to avoid being characterised as 'just as bad as the other lot'.

    LibDem gain, everyone else rallying behind them as the safe anti-Reform candidate?
  • I like the sound of Peter Force-Jones. Reminds me of Antony Strong-arm Jones, as Princess Margaret's beau was described by Welsh comedians, back in the day.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 14,273
    edited September 17
    rcs1000 said:

    On topic: of course they do.

    And I suspect Reform probably should go for it. Now, sure, it's a risk, but the Conservatives are moribund and Labour deeply unpopular.

    I suspect they would win fairly comforably, and could use victory for some good publicity, and to avoid being characterised as 'just as bad as the other lot'.

    The.vox pops ive seen were a mixture
    'We elected a Conservative he should serve as a Conservative or let us elect another' voices versus
    'Lifelong Conservative but they are nowhere, time to roll the dice even if Reform are a bit iffy' (paraphrased) voices

    The Tories won the wards making up Wilts East by about 2000 over Reform in May (16k total votes) with Libs about 1300 further behind. Lab and Green pretty much sat it out
    Wards - 9 Tory, 3 Reform (2 in Tidbury on tiny pitiful turnout compared to the rest) 2 Lib Dem and one where an Indy hammered all of then
    Id be very tempted by ConHold at the odds I expect would be on offer

    Lab and Green can be safely discounted
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 32,617
    rcs1000 said:

    On topic: of course they do.

    And I suspect Reform probably should go for it. Now, sure, it's a risk, but the Conservatives are moribund and Labour deeply unpopular.

    I suspect they would win fairly comforably, and could use victory for some good publicity, and to avoid being characterised as 'just as bad as the other lot'.

    I agree. And if he loses his seat, what's the issue? They can put him in a safe Reform one next time.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,222
    I think I'd argue that Ukip did by-elections, but since then others haven't (to their own detriment in the case of whatever sour face's lot were called).
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 37,506
    The only party that could win the seat other than Reform is the LDs but 17% isn't particularly high.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 14,273
    edited September 17

    rcs1000 said:

    On topic: of course they do.

    And I suspect Reform probably should go for it. Now, sure, it's a risk, but the Conservatives are moribund and Labour deeply unpopular.

    I suspect they would win fairly comforably, and could use victory for some good publicity, and to avoid being characterised as 'just as bad as the other lot'.

    LibDem gain, everyone else rallying behind them as the safe anti-Reform candidate?
    My view on that would be to look at the May locals, LDs were in third and Lab and Green didnt stand in most wards so theyve already 'got' a lot of their votes i think and trail. And it would be framed as Con vs Reform.
    That being said, LDs are by election monsters........
  • kinabalu said:

    Yes, they owe it to us, the political betting community, to have a by-election.

    Testify.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,670
    Kruger concerned it would be a 'bye' election? :lol:
  • tlg86 said:

    I think I'd argue that Ukip did by-elections, but since then others haven't (to their own detriment in the case of whatever sour face's lot were called).

    Farage was asking for by-elections in say 2022 when Christian Wakeford defected from Tory to Labour.
  • More deportation flights planned for Labour's ‘one-in, one-out’ scheme took off without a single migrant on board again today.

    A scheduled Air France flight from London Heathrow this morning departed with no Channel migrants aboard. And migrants were also absent from another aircraft this afternoon which had previously been pinpointed by a French charity as a Home Office removals flight.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 14,273
    Andy_JS said:

    The only party that could win the seat other than Reform is the LDs but 17% isn't particularly high.

    Obviously the Tories can win, they won the seats wards in May by over 2000 votes
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,716
    I wonder why he ruled one out. He’d win, surely?
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,341

    More deportation flights planned for Labour's ‘one-in, one-out’ scheme took off without a single migrant on board again today.

    A scheduled Air France flight from London Heathrow this morning departed with no Channel migrants aboard. And migrants were also absent from another aircraft this afternoon which had previously been pinpointed by a French charity as a Home Office removals flight.

    This is an absolute joke
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,222

    tlg86 said:

    I think I'd argue that Ukip did by-elections, but since then others haven't (to their own detriment in the case of whatever sour face's lot were called).

    Farage was asking for by-elections in say 2022 when Christian Wakeford defected from Tory to Labour.
    Yep and he didn't do one, so I think fare enough for Reform to tell the rest to jog on.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,716
    Mortimer said:

    More deportation flights planned for Labour's ‘one-in, one-out’ scheme took off without a single migrant on board again today.

    A scheduled Air France flight from London Heathrow this morning departed with no Channel migrants aboard. And migrants were also absent from another aircraft this afternoon which had previously been pinpointed by a French charity as a Home Office removals flight.

    This is an absolute joke
    Good on the judges for blocking these flights. Who in their right mind could support deporting them to that war-torn hellscape is beyond me.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,638
    edited September 17
    Mortimer said:

    More deportation flights planned for Labour's ‘one-in, one-out’ scheme took off without a single migrant on board again today.

    A scheduled Air France flight from London Heathrow this morning departed with no Channel migrants aboard. And migrants were also absent from another aircraft this afternoon which had previously been pinpointed by a French charity as a Home Office removals flight.

    This is an absolute joke
    Even if they do manage to get some people on flights, it is going to be interesting if they can ever scale it.

    The guy who has got the temporary injunction was chosen as he was supposedly an easy clear cut case.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,222
    RobD said:

    I wonder why he ruled one out. He’d win, surely?

    Nothing to gain. Ukip wanted the publicity. Change needed the publicity (but that lot were far too dumb to realise it). Reform don't need any publicity and no one is going to change their vote because of this.
  • isamisam Posts: 42,632
    rcs1000 said:

    On topic: of course they do.

    And I suspect Reform probably should go for it. Now, sure, it's a risk, but the Conservatives are moribund and Labour deeply unpopular.

    I suspect they would win fairly comforably, and could use victory for some good publicity, and to avoid being characterised as 'just as bad as the other lot'.

    I think they should have a by election, people shouldn’t be able to defect without one.

    I also think changing PM should mean a GE. Sunak, Truss, Brown, May all were crap partly because the public never chose them. Boris did hold one pretty quickly

    How would we price up this Kruger By Election?

  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 14,273
    RobD said:

    I wonder why he ruled one out. He’d win, surely?

    They lost in this seats wards in May. So they wont risk it. It would shoot their momentum if they lost.
    They arent polling well enough to risk a solid Tory seat by election from fourth
  • England making hard work of these last few runs.
  • Scotland to scrap the "not proven" verdict.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,792
    edited September 17
    Good.

    Plans to scrap Scotland's controversial not proven verdict have been approved by MSPs.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cy8rndyyp7vo
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 30,674

    rcs1000 said:

    On topic: of course they do.

    And I suspect Reform probably should go for it. Now, sure, it's a risk, but the Conservatives are moribund and Labour deeply unpopular.

    I suspect they would win fairly comforably, and could use victory for some good publicity, and to avoid being characterised as 'just as bad as the other lot'.

    The.vox pops ive seen were a mixture
    'We elected a Conservative he should serve as a Conservative or let us elect another' voices versus
    'Lifelong Conservative but they are nowhere, time to roll the dice even if Reform are a bit iffy' (paraphrased) voices

    The Tories won the wards making up Wilts East by about 2000 over Reform in May (16k total votes) with Libs about 1300 further behind. Lab and Green pretty much sat it out
    Wards - 9 Tory, 3 Reform (2 in Tidbury on tiny pitiful turnout compared to the rest) 2 Lib Dem and one where an Indy hammered all of then
    Id be very tempted by ConHold at the odds I expect would be on offer

    Lab and Green can be safely discounted
    Aren't some of the wards in Swindon?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 30,674
    Why does this topic always come up.
    Nobody, on any side, does it.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,716
    dixiedean said:

    rcs1000 said:

    On topic: of course they do.

    And I suspect Reform probably should go for it. Now, sure, it's a risk, but the Conservatives are moribund and Labour deeply unpopular.

    I suspect they would win fairly comforably, and could use victory for some good publicity, and to avoid being characterised as 'just as bad as the other lot'.

    The.vox pops ive seen were a mixture
    'We elected a Conservative he should serve as a Conservative or let us elect another' voices versus
    'Lifelong Conservative but they are nowhere, time to roll the dice even if Reform are a bit iffy' (paraphrased) voices

    The Tories won the wards making up Wilts East by about 2000 over Reform in May (16k total votes) with Libs about 1300 further behind. Lab and Green pretty much sat it out
    Wards - 9 Tory, 3 Reform (2 in Tidbury on tiny pitiful turnout compared to the rest) 2 Lib Dem and one where an Indy hammered all of then
    Id be very tempted by ConHold at the odds I expect would be on offer

    Lab and Green can be safely discounted
    Aren't some of the wards in Swindon?
    No: https://boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/b65f7782-658b-4c4a-9cba-59c16c807f77/a3-maps/SW_15_East Wiltshire CC.pdf
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 16,224
    FPT...
    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    algarkirk said:

    https://x.com/cllr_thomas/status/1967894303151206627?s=19

    Reform councillor walks out of local council meeting because they didnt acknowledge the death of a US political figure.
    Odd. Its Torfaen council, why would they?

    Indication though of what a Reform government is going to like and driven by. It is UK's Trump 2.0 and it is going to be disaster for this country and its institutions and all those dancing around in joyful anticipation of Nigel as PM are profoundly wrong.
    As much as we love our centrist Dads here, my thoughts on Reform are they will drift back as they drive away the Centre Right Grandpas and Grandmas
    How Reform plan to win and how Reform will govern are two separate questions. Neither has a clear answer and both should be issues for intense journalistic scrutiny.

    The second question is more important. Assuming we can put on one side a Reform government going Trumpian and seeking to prevent further free and fair elections (and IMO we can dismiss that) then the probability is that they will govern in such a way as to try to win a subsequent election in 4/5 years time. This imposes a very considerable limit on what they can do. They will continue to need the votes of people who rely on pensions, low inflation, NHS, housing including social housing, free education, not having a series of fiscal/debt crises, the welfare state and a reasonable supply of jobs provided by someone else. (Try asking the people of Clacton what they want in addition to fewer brown faces).

    This describes a high spend and high tax society in a social democracy. This is possible to do with fairly tightly closed borders, as is clearly Reform's policy. I suggest this (underneath all sorts of evasive rhetoric) is exactly what they will try to do.

    Whether it can be done is a question for Reform to answer, but not only Reform.
    I remain somewhat sceptical of this analysis.

    Firstly, Farage admires Trump. He still admires Trump while Trump is busy dismantling democratic norms in the US. This suggests to me that Farage would, given the opportunity, do just as much to dismantle democratic norms.

    Reform UK may well "continue to need the votes of people who rely on pensions, low inflation, NHS" etc. But that doesn't mean they won't enact policies counter to those voters' interests. The point is that they've drunk their own Kool-Aid. They believe that their policies will work. They won't, but as long they believe they'll work, they'll still introduce them. And if it looks like they aren't working, they'll just stop publishing the statistics that say that, as Trump has.

    Your analysis that satisfying their voters' expectations will require "a high spend and high tax society in a social democracy" is correct, but that doesn't mean Reform will aim for that. Plenty of radical right populists have gotten into power and enacted stupid policies counter to their voters' interests (e.g., Trump, Erdoğan, Milei... and perhaps one could include Putin too). Some radical right populists have bent to reality more (Meloni?), so is Farage more a Trump or a Meloni?
    Lol.

    Millei has done more for his people than any Argentine politician in living memory....
    The recent Buenos Aries elections suggest that much of the Argentinian electorate don't share that view.
    Parish council elections. I don't think they'll make much difference.

    CentristDadism is over, as evidenced by the failure of Sunak, the failure of Biden, the failure of repeated French govts etc etc

    Millei-esque politics will IMO end up being elected or imposed upon us here, as the burden of debt and entitlements continues to drag down our country.
    They are not parish council elections. They are the highest level of election below the national parliament. The electorate is about 50% of the full Argentine electorate. Milei's party underperformed polls. The Argentine peso notably sank after the result precisely because it was a bad result for Milei.

    The world is not divided between radical right politicians like Milei and CentristDadism. Don't be silly. Radical right parties have had success and failures. They advanced in the recent Norwegian general election, but lost the election to the centre-left. They fell back in Poland in June, losing to a centrist. The centre-left also won in South Korea that month. And so on.

    The UK economy is nothing like the Argentinian one and Milei-esque politics are not going to be needed or wanted.

    And it's Milei, one 'l'. If you're going to hero-worship the guy, learn to spell his name.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,222
    dixiedean said:

    Why does this topic always come up.
    Nobody, on any side, does it.

    Ukip did.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 29,855
    How many Not Proven verdicts are there? And does this mean that it will be abolished before any Sturgeon trial? I thought they rather liked it.

    Random Factoid.

    There is a brand of wind turbines called Proven. If they went bust they would be Not Proven. Wonderfully, the founder was called Gordon Proven.

    They are Scottish, so the cutoff wind speed (when it stops itself to avoid damage) is about 160mph, rather than the more normal 60mph.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 30,674
    RobD said:

    dixiedean said:

    rcs1000 said:

    On topic: of course they do.

    And I suspect Reform probably should go for it. Now, sure, it's a risk, but the Conservatives are moribund and Labour deeply unpopular.

    I suspect they would win fairly comforably, and could use victory for some good publicity, and to avoid being characterised as 'just as bad as the other lot'.

    The.vox pops ive seen were a mixture
    'We elected a Conservative he should serve as a Conservative or let us elect another' voices versus
    'Lifelong Conservative but they are nowhere, time to roll the dice even if Reform are a bit iffy' (paraphrased) voices

    The Tories won the wards making up Wilts East by about 2000 over Reform in May (16k total votes) with Libs about 1300 further behind. Lab and Green pretty much sat it out
    Wards - 9 Tory, 3 Reform (2 in Tidbury on tiny pitiful turnout compared to the rest) 2 Lib Dem and one where an Indy hammered all of then
    Id be very tempted by ConHold at the odds I expect would be on offer

    Lab and Green can be safely discounted
    Aren't some of the wards in Swindon?
    No: https://boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/b65f7782-658b-4c4a-9cba-59c16c807f77/a3-maps/SW_15_East Wiltshire CC.pdf
    From wiki.

    The constituency is composed of:
    The Borough of Swindon wards of Chiseldon & Lawn (part), Ridgeway, and Wroughton & Wichelstowe.

    They are shown on the map you link to.
    Swindon held no elections in 2025.
    So all calculations of who won what then are misleading.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,757
    They should hold the by-election, they'll win at a canter anyway.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 25,823

    Good.

    Plans to scrap Scotland's controversial not proven verdict have been approved by MSPs.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cy8rndyyp7vo

    I don't know if that's a good thing or a bad thing. +1 for clarity, -1 for the realities of life.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,912

    Scotland to scrap the "not proven" verdict.

    There's certainly a very strong case for getting rid of it, but it's hard to be completely sure.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 14,273
    dixiedean said:

    rcs1000 said:

    On topic: of course they do.

    And I suspect Reform probably should go for it. Now, sure, it's a risk, but the Conservatives are moribund and Labour deeply unpopular.

    I suspect they would win fairly comforably, and could use victory for some good publicity, and to avoid being characterised as 'just as bad as the other lot'.

    The.vox pops ive seen were a mixture
    'We elected a Conservative he should serve as a Conservative or let us elect another' voices versus
    'Lifelong Conservative but they are nowhere, time to roll the dice even if Reform are a bit iffy' (paraphrased) voices

    The Tories won the wards making up Wilts East by about 2000 over Reform in May (16k total votes) with Libs about 1300 further behind. Lab and Green pretty much sat it out
    Wards - 9 Tory, 3 Reform (2 in Tidbury on tiny pitiful turnout compared to the rest) 2 Lib Dem and one where an Indy hammered all of then
    Id be very tempted by ConHold at the odds I expect would be on offer

    Lab and Green can be safely discounted
    Aren't some of the wards in Swindon?
    True, 3 wards in Swindon but all held by Cons last time out and Swindon South was slightly below average for Reform (worse than Wilts East) so despite Buckland losing to Labour it probably doesn't shift the dial dramatically
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 45,550
    MattW said:

    How many Not Proven verdicts are there? And does this mean that it will be abolished before any Sturgeon trial? I thought they rather liked it.

    Random Factoid.

    There is a brand of wind turbines called Proven. If they went bust they would be Not Proven. Wonderfully, the founder was called Gordon Proven.

    They are Scottish, so the cutoff wind speed (when it stops itself to avoid damage) is about 160mph, rather than the more normal 60mph.

    Tut, Ms Sturgeon has not been charged, you'd better amend that name.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 16,224
    FPT...

    Mortimer said:

    algarkirk said:

    https://x.com/cllr_thomas/status/1967894303151206627?s=19

    Reform councillor walks out of local council meeting because they didnt acknowledge the death of a US political figure.
    Odd. Its Torfaen council, why would they?

    Indication though of what a Reform government is going to like and driven by. It is UK's Trump 2.0 and it is going to be disaster for this country and its institutions and all those dancing around in joyful anticipation of Nigel as PM are profoundly wrong.
    As much as we love our centrist Dads here, my thoughts on Reform are they will drift back as they drive away the Centre Right Grandpas and Grandmas
    How Reform plan to win and how Reform will govern are two separate questions. Neither has a clear answer and both should be issues for intense journalistic scrutiny.

    The second question is more important. Assuming we can put on one side a Reform government going Trumpian and seeking to prevent further free and fair elections (and IMO we can dismiss that) then the probability is that they will govern in such a way as to try to win a subsequent election in 4/5 years time. This imposes a very considerable limit on what they can do. They will continue to need the votes of people who rely on pensions, low inflation, NHS, housing including social housing, free education, not having a series of fiscal/debt crises, the welfare state and a reasonable supply of jobs provided by someone else. (Try asking the people of Clacton what they want in addition to fewer brown faces).

    This describes a high spend and high tax society in a social democracy. This is possible to do with fairly tightly closed borders, as is clearly Reform's policy. I suggest this (underneath all sorts of evasive rhetoric) is exactly what they will try to do.

    Whether it can be done is a question for Reform to answer, but not only Reform.
    I remain somewhat sceptical of this analysis.

    Firstly, Farage admires Trump. He still admires Trump while Trump is busy dismantling democratic norms in the US. This suggests to me that Farage would, given the opportunity, do just as much to dismantle democratic norms.

    Reform UK may well "continue to need the votes of people who rely on pensions, low inflation, NHS" etc. But that doesn't mean they won't enact policies counter to those voters' interests. The point is that they've drunk their own Kool-Aid. They believe that their policies will work. They won't, but as long they believe they'll work, they'll still introduce them. And if it looks like they aren't working, they'll just stop publishing the statistics that say that, as Trump has.

    Your analysis that satisfying their voters' expectations will require "a high spend and high tax society in a social democracy" is correct, but that doesn't mean Reform will aim for that. Plenty of radical right populists have gotten into power and enacted stupid policies counter to their voters' interests (e.g., Trump, Erdoğan, Milei... and perhaps one could include Putin too). Some radical right populists have bent to reality more (Meloni?), so is Farage more a Trump or a Meloni?
    Lol.

    Millei has done more for his people than any Argentine politician in living memory....
    The recent Buenos Aries elections suggest that much of the Argentinian electorate don't share that view.
    Among other things, that area is a hot bed for the Peronists.

    Think the of the people who demanded that spending in Greece should be unchanged. After the crisis started. Because Will of The People.

    Millie is running on the plan of pain upfront, win the next election on the economy. Again, conventional, rather than populist politics.
    I'd assumed he was a libertarian with a theatrical bent.
    He's the most impressive politician in the planet at the moment.

    He gets lumped in with turds like Trump, mainly by people who dislike anyone right of Corbyn, but he's actually delivering results.

    Some seriously impressive results - and not via easy choices, but by making the hard choices.

    The polar opposite of populism.
    He also speaks to what he believes to be the reincarnated spirit of his dead dog, so he is known for some more eccentric views.

    Also, the seriously impressive results he arguably delivered early on have kinda run out. The peso keeps sinking and he's burning through foreign reserves to prop it up. Growth has stalled. The $Libra cryptocurrency scandal has also hurt him. I'm sure there are several more chapters to be told in his story, but don't listen to his libertarian fan club. He's facing problems, economically and psephologically.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,716
    dixiedean said:

    RobD said:

    dixiedean said:

    rcs1000 said:

    On topic: of course they do.

    And I suspect Reform probably should go for it. Now, sure, it's a risk, but the Conservatives are moribund and Labour deeply unpopular.

    I suspect they would win fairly comforably, and could use victory for some good publicity, and to avoid being characterised as 'just as bad as the other lot'.

    The.vox pops ive seen were a mixture
    'We elected a Conservative he should serve as a Conservative or let us elect another' voices versus
    'Lifelong Conservative but they are nowhere, time to roll the dice even if Reform are a bit iffy' (paraphrased) voices

    The Tories won the wards making up Wilts East by about 2000 over Reform in May (16k total votes) with Libs about 1300 further behind. Lab and Green pretty much sat it out
    Wards - 9 Tory, 3 Reform (2 in Tidbury on tiny pitiful turnout compared to the rest) 2 Lib Dem and one where an Indy hammered all of then
    Id be very tempted by ConHold at the odds I expect would be on offer

    Lab and Green can be safely discounted
    Aren't some of the wards in Swindon?
    No: https://boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk/review2023/b65f7782-658b-4c4a-9cba-59c16c807f77/a3-maps/SW_15_East Wiltshire CC.pdf
    From wiki.

    The constituency is composed of:
    The Borough of Swindon wards of Chiseldon & Lawn (part), Ridgeway, and Wroughton & Wichelstowe.

    They are shown on the map you link to.
    Swindon held no elections in 2025.
    So all calculations of who won what then are misleading.
    Ah, sorry, I thought you were asking about the town proper, not the borough council.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 29,855

    rcs1000 said:

    On topic: of course they do.

    And I suspect Reform probably should go for it. Now, sure, it's a risk, but the Conservatives are moribund and Labour deeply unpopular.

    I suspect they would win fairly comforably, and could use victory for some good publicity, and to avoid being characterised as 'just as bad as the other lot'.

    The.vox pops ive seen were a mixture
    'We elected a Conservative he should serve as a Conservative or let us elect another' voices versus
    'Lifelong Conservative but they are nowhere, time to roll the dice even if Reform are a bit iffy' (paraphrased) voices

    The Tories won the wards making up Wilts East by about 2000 over Reform in May (16k total votes) with Libs about 1300 further behind. Lab and Green pretty much sat it out
    Wards - 9 Tory, 3 Reform (2 in Tidbury on tiny pitiful turnout compared to the rest) 2 Lib Dem and one where an Indy hammered all of then
    Id be very tempted by ConHold at the odds I expect would be on offer

    Lab and Green can be safely discounted
    All over this la-aand !

    (Sorry)
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 16,224
    The public might want a by-election, but they're not going to get one.

    That the public want a by-election Kruger should blame on whichever politician it was who came up with the idea that defecting MPs should seek re-election. It was 2014. Two Tories defected to UKIP and triggered by-elections. Yeah, whoever was the UKIP party leader then. What was his name? Migel Narage or something?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 29,855
    Carnyx said:

    MattW said:

    How many Not Proven verdicts are there? And does this mean that it will be abolished before any Sturgeon trial? I thought they rather liked it.

    Random Factoid.

    There is a brand of wind turbines called Proven. If they went bust they would be Not Proven. Wonderfully, the founder was called Gordon Proven.

    They are Scottish, so the cutoff wind speed (when it stops itself to avoid damage) is about 160mph, rather than the more normal 60mph.

    Tut, Ms Sturgeon has not been charged, you'd better amend that name.
    Carefully phrased to include the possibility of no trial :wink: .
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 23,387
    If an MP defects, does that make them defective?


    I think defecting councillors should also face a by-election.
  • viewcode said:

    Good.

    Plans to scrap Scotland's controversial not proven verdict have been approved by MSPs.


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cy8rndyyp7vo

    I don't know if that's a good thing or a bad thing. +1 for clarity, -1 for the realities of life.
    The state should have to prove your guilt, you do not need to prove your innocence.

    Having not proven muddies the waters, I hate the concept of no smoke without fire.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 30,674
    Folk expecting the politics of Milei from a Reform government are destined to be sadly disappointed.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,638
    edited September 17
    Best Big Brother narrator impersonation....

    Day 2 trapped inside Mac OS 26....Housemate Francis is still extremely unhappy and taken to wearing sunglasses while working.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 16,224

    If an MP defects, does that make them defective?

    I think defecting councillors should also face a by-election.

    We have FPTP where you elect an individual. That's meant to be an advantage of FPTP. If you've elected an individual, then it's still the same person and it's up to them what party they join -- no reason for a by-election.

    If people are in reality voting for a party, and that's why we need a by-election, then why are we using FPTP? Introduce PR.
  • Best Big Brother narrator impersonation....

    Day 2 trapped inside Mac OS 26....Housemate Francis is still extremely unhappy and taken to wearing sunglasses while working.

    I love iOS 26, are you sure you’ve downloaded the right version and not a beta?
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 16,224
    dixiedean said:

    Folk expecting the politics of Milei from a Reform government are destined to be sadly disappointed.

    There are some overlaps: slashing government spending, dropping climate change action, worshipping Trump... and I suspect a Reform UK government would also join Argentina in having a rapidly devaluing currency.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 56,957
    RobD said:

    Mortimer said:

    More deportation flights planned for Labour's ‘one-in, one-out’ scheme took off without a single migrant on board again today.

    A scheduled Air France flight from London Heathrow this morning departed with no Channel migrants aboard. And migrants were also absent from another aircraft this afternoon which had previously been pinpointed by a French charity as a Home Office removals flight.

    This is an absolute joke
    Good on the judges for blocking these flights. Who in their right mind could support deporting them to that war-torn hellscape is beyond me.
    Quite. France is a hell hole for migrants according to the aid agencies etc.

    A country like that is a failed state. A failed state with oil.

    Are you thinking what I’m thinking, children?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 40,210

    Best Big Brother narrator impersonation....

    Day 2 trapped inside Mac OS 26....Housemate Francis is still extremely unhappy and taken to wearing sunglasses while working.

    I love iOS 26, are you sure you’ve downloaded the right version and not a beta?
    You do realise IOS26 and MacOS26 are not the same thing, right?
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,341

    FPT...

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    algarkirk said:

    https://x.com/cllr_thomas/status/1967894303151206627?s=19

    Reform councillor walks out of local council meeting because they didnt acknowledge the death of a US political figure.
    Odd. Its Torfaen council, why would they?

    Indication though of what a Reform government is going to like and driven by. It is UK's Trump 2.0 and it is going to be disaster for this country and its institutions and all those dancing around in joyful anticipation of Nigel as PM are profoundly wrong.
    As much as we love our centrist Dads here, my thoughts on Reform are they will drift back as they drive away the Centre Right Grandpas and Grandmas
    How Reform plan to win and how Reform will govern are two separate questions. Neither has a clear answer and both should be issues for intense journalistic scrutiny.

    The second question is more important. Assuming we can put on one side a Reform government going Trumpian and seeking to prevent further free and fair elections (and IMO we can dismiss that) then the probability is that they will govern in such a way as to try to win a subsequent election in 4/5 years time. This imposes a very considerable limit on what they can do. They will continue to need the votes of people who rely on pensions, low inflation, NHS, housing including social housing, free education, not having a series of fiscal/debt crises, the welfare state and a reasonable supply of jobs provided by someone else. (Try asking the people of Clacton what they want in addition to fewer brown faces).

    This describes a high spend and high tax society in a social democracy. This is possible to do with fairly tightly closed borders, as is clearly Reform's policy. I suggest this (underneath all sorts of evasive rhetoric) is exactly what they will try to do.

    Whether it can be done is a question for Reform to answer, but not only Reform.
    I remain somewhat sceptical of this analysis.

    Firstly, Farage admires Trump. He still admires Trump while Trump is busy dismantling democratic norms in the US. This suggests to me that Farage would, given the opportunity, do just as much to dismantle democratic norms.

    Reform UK may well "continue to need the votes of people who rely on pensions, low inflation, NHS" etc. But that doesn't mean they won't enact policies counter to those voters' interests. The point is that they've drunk their own Kool-Aid. They believe that their policies will work. They won't, but as long they believe they'll work, they'll still introduce them. And if it looks like they aren't working, they'll just stop publishing the statistics that say that, as Trump has.

    Your analysis that satisfying their voters' expectations will require "a high spend and high tax society in a social democracy" is correct, but that doesn't mean Reform will aim for that. Plenty of radical right populists have gotten into power and enacted stupid policies counter to their voters' interests (e.g., Trump, Erdoğan, Milei... and perhaps one could include Putin too). Some radical right populists have bent to reality more (Meloni?), so is Farage more a Trump or a Meloni?
    Lol.

    Millei has done more for his people than any Argentine politician in living memory....
    The recent Buenos Aries elections suggest that much of the Argentinian electorate don't share that view.
    Parish council elections. I don't think they'll make much difference.

    CentristDadism is over, as evidenced by the failure of Sunak, the failure of Biden, the failure of repeated French govts etc etc

    Millei-esque politics will IMO end up being elected or imposed upon us here, as the burden of debt and entitlements continues to drag down our country.
    They are not parish council elections. They are the highest level of election below the national parliament. The electorate is about 50% of the full Argentine electorate. Milei's party underperformed polls. The Argentine peso notably sank after the result precisely because it was a bad result for Milei.

    The world is not divided between radical right politicians like Milei and CentristDadism. Don't be silly. Radical right parties have had success and failures. They advanced in the recent Norwegian general election, but lost the election to the centre-left. They fell back in Poland in June, losing to a centrist. The centre-left also won in South Korea that month. And so on.

    The UK economy is nothing like the Argentinian one and Milei-esque politics are not going to be needed or wanted.

    And it's Milei, one 'l'. If you're going to hero-worship the guy, learn to spell his name.
    Oh do get a sense of humour - the parish council jibe is a reference to local elections long used here and elsewhere.

    I didn't say it the world was divided between the failed Social Dadocracy and Milleism - but that I suspect the latter will likely imposed upon us if we don't vote for it first, by the IMF
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,638
    edited September 17
    Scott_xP said:
    I don't think many of those interviewed in the Vox Pops voted for him in the first place, as the one of them did actually admit.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 45,550
    edited September 17
    MattW said:

    Carnyx said:

    MattW said:

    How many Not Proven verdicts are there? And does this mean that it will be abolished before any Sturgeon trial? I thought they rather liked it.

    Random Factoid.

    There is a brand of wind turbines called Proven. If they went bust they would be Not Proven. Wonderfully, the founder was called Gordon Proven.

    They are Scottish, so the cutoff wind speed (when it stops itself to avoid damage) is about 160mph, rather than the more normal 60mph.

    Tut, Ms Sturgeon has not been charged, you'd better amend that name.
    Carefully phrased to include the possibility of no trial :wink: .
    But also to include the possibility of a trial, which has been ruled out (cos [edit] no charges). Unless you claim to know something we don't? Not fair on OGH.
  • Scott_xP said:

    Best Big Brother narrator impersonation....

    Day 2 trapped inside Mac OS 26....Housemate Francis is still extremely unhappy and taken to wearing sunglasses while working.

    I love iOS 26, are you sure you’ve downloaded the right version and not a beta?
    You do realise IOS26 and MacOS26 are not the same thing, right?
    Yes.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,638
    edited September 17

    Scott_xP said:

    Best Big Brother narrator impersonation....

    Day 2 trapped inside Mac OS 26....Housemate Francis is still extremely unhappy and taken to wearing sunglasses while working.

    I love iOS 26, are you sure you’ve downloaded the right version and not a beta?
    You do realise IOS26 and MacOS26 are not the same thing, right?
    Yes.
    IOS26 on iPad isn't as bad. Its not an improvement on the previous OS, but its not as bad.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,341
    edited September 17
    Mortimer said:

    FPT...

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    algarkirk said:

    https://x.com/cllr_thomas/status/1967894303151206627?s=19

    Reform councillor walks out of local council meeting because they didnt acknowledge the death of a US political figure.
    Odd. Its Torfaen council, why would they?

    Indication though of what a Reform government is going to like and driven by. It is UK's Trump 2.0 and it is going to be disaster for this country and its institutions and all those dancing around in joyful anticipation of Nigel as PM are profoundly wrong.
    As much as we love our centrist Dads here, my thoughts on Reform are they will drift back as they drive away the Centre Right Grandpas and Grandmas
    How Reform plan to win and how Reform will govern are two separate questions. Neither has a clear answer and both should be issues for intense journalistic scrutiny.

    The second question is more important. Assuming we can put on one side a Reform government going Trumpian and seeking to prevent further free and fair elections (and IMO we can dismiss that) then the probability is that they will govern in such a way as to try to win a subsequent election in 4/5 years time. This imposes a very considerable limit on what they can do. They will continue to need the votes of people who rely on pensions, low inflation, NHS, housing including social housing, free education, not having a series of fiscal/debt crises, the welfare state and a reasonable supply of jobs provided by someone else. (Try asking the people of Clacton what they want in addition to fewer brown faces).

    This describes a high spend and high tax society in a social democracy. This is possible to do with fairly tightly closed borders, as is clearly Reform's policy. I suggest this (underneath all sorts of evasive rhetoric) is exactly what they will try to do.

    Whether it can be done is a question for Reform to answer, but not only Reform.
    I remain somewhat sceptical of this analysis.

    Firstly, Farage admires Trump. He still admires Trump while Trump is busy dismantling democratic norms in the US. This suggests to me that Farage would, given the opportunity, do just as much to dismantle democratic norms.

    Reform UK may well "continue to need the votes of people who rely on pensions, low inflation, NHS" etc. But that doesn't mean they won't enact policies counter to those voters' interests. The point is that they've drunk their own Kool-Aid. They believe that their policies will work. They won't, but as long they believe they'll work, they'll still introduce them. And if it looks like they aren't working, they'll just stop publishing the statistics that say that, as Trump has.

    Your analysis that satisfying their voters' expectations will require "a high spend and high tax society in a social democracy" is correct, but that doesn't mean Reform will aim for that. Plenty of radical right populists have gotten into power and enacted stupid policies counter to their voters' interests (e.g., Trump, Erdoğan, Milei... and perhaps one could include Putin too). Some radical right populists have bent to reality more (Meloni?), so is Farage more a Trump or a Meloni?
    Lol.

    Millei has done more for his people than any Argentine politician in living memory....
    The recent Buenos Aries elections suggest that much of the Argentinian electorate don't share that view.
    Parish council elections. I don't think they'll make much difference.

    CentristDadism is over, as evidenced by the failure of Sunak, the failure of Biden, the failure of repeated French govts etc etc

    Millei-esque politics will IMO end up being elected or imposed upon us here, as the burden of debt and entitlements continues to drag down our country.
    They are not parish council elections. They are the highest level of election below the national parliament. The electorate is about 50% of the full Argentine electorate. Milei's party underperformed polls. The Argentine peso notably sank after the result precisely because it was a bad result for Milei.

    The world is not divided between radical right politicians like Milei and CentristDadism. Don't be silly. Radical right parties have had success and failures. They advanced in the recent Norwegian general election, but lost the election to the centre-left. They fell back in Poland in June, losing to a centrist. The centre-left also won in South Korea that month. And so on.

    The UK economy is nothing like the Argentinian one and Milei-esque politics are not going to be needed or wanted.

    And it's Milei, one 'l'. If you're going to hero-worship the guy, learn to spell his name.
    Oh do get a sense of humour - the parish council jibe is a reference to local elections long used here and elsewhere.

    I didn't say it the world was divided between the failed Social Dadocracy and Milleism - but that I suspect the latter will likely imposed upon us if we don't vote for it first, by the IMF
    I wonder if that is the LDs big electoral problem - insufficient sense of humour? The lesson of Sir Keir Humourless is plain as day.

    Could you imagine a drink with Moran, or Cooper, or Davey? I can't. I'd rather have a pint with Farage or e.g. Jack Straw any day of the week.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 16,224
    Mortimer said:

    FPT...

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    algarkirk said:

    https://x.com/cllr_thomas/status/1967894303151206627?s=19

    Reform councillor walks out of local council meeting because they didnt acknowledge the death of a US political figure.
    Odd. Its Torfaen council, why would they?

    Indication though of what a Reform government is going to like and driven by. It is UK's Trump 2.0 and it is going to be disaster for this country and its institutions and all those dancing around in joyful anticipation of Nigel as PM are profoundly wrong.
    As much as we love our centrist Dads here, my thoughts on Reform are they will drift back as they drive away the Centre Right Grandpas and Grandmas
    How Reform plan to win and how Reform will govern are two separate questions. Neither has a clear answer and both should be issues for intense journalistic scrutiny.

    The second question is more important. Assuming we can put on one side a Reform government going Trumpian and seeking to prevent further free and fair elections (and IMO we can dismiss that) then the probability is that they will govern in such a way as to try to win a subsequent election in 4/5 years time. This imposes a very considerable limit on what they can do. They will continue to need the votes of people who rely on pensions, low inflation, NHS, housing including social housing, free education, not having a series of fiscal/debt crises, the welfare state and a reasonable supply of jobs provided by someone else. (Try asking the people of Clacton what they want in addition to fewer brown faces).

    This describes a high spend and high tax society in a social democracy. This is possible to do with fairly tightly closed borders, as is clearly Reform's policy. I suggest this (underneath all sorts of evasive rhetoric) is exactly what they will try to do.

    Whether it can be done is a question for Reform to answer, but not only Reform.
    I remain somewhat sceptical of this analysis.

    Firstly, Farage admires Trump. He still admires Trump while Trump is busy dismantling democratic norms in the US. This suggests to me that Farage would, given the opportunity, do just as much to dismantle democratic norms.

    Reform UK may well "continue to need the votes of people who rely on pensions, low inflation, NHS" etc. But that doesn't mean they won't enact policies counter to those voters' interests. The point is that they've drunk their own Kool-Aid. They believe that their policies will work. They won't, but as long they believe they'll work, they'll still introduce them. And if it looks like they aren't working, they'll just stop publishing the statistics that say that, as Trump has.

    Your analysis that satisfying their voters' expectations will require "a high spend and high tax society in a social democracy" is correct, but that doesn't mean Reform will aim for that. Plenty of radical right populists have gotten into power and enacted stupid policies counter to their voters' interests (e.g., Trump, Erdoğan, Milei... and perhaps one could include Putin too). Some radical right populists have bent to reality more (Meloni?), so is Farage more a Trump or a Meloni?
    Lol.

    Millei has done more for his people than any Argentine politician in living memory....
    The recent Buenos Aries elections suggest that much of the Argentinian electorate don't share that view.
    Parish council elections. I don't think they'll make much difference.

    CentristDadism is over, as evidenced by the failure of Sunak, the failure of Biden, the failure of repeated French govts etc etc

    Millei-esque politics will IMO end up being elected or imposed upon us here, as the burden of debt and entitlements continues to drag down our country.
    They are not parish council elections. They are the highest level of election below the national parliament. The electorate is about 50% of the full Argentine electorate. Milei's party underperformed polls. The Argentine peso notably sank after the result precisely because it was a bad result for Milei.

    The world is not divided between radical right politicians like Milei and CentristDadism. Don't be silly. Radical right parties have had success and failures. They advanced in the recent Norwegian general election, but lost the election to the centre-left. They fell back in Poland in June, losing to a centrist. The centre-left also won in South Korea that month. And so on.

    The UK economy is nothing like the Argentinian one and Milei-esque politics are not going to be needed or wanted.

    And it's Milei, one 'l'. If you're going to hero-worship the guy, learn to spell his name.
    Oh do get a sense of humour - the parish council jibe is a reference to local elections long used here and elsewhere.

    I didn't say it the world was divided between the failed Social Dadocracy and Milleism - but that I suspect the latter will likely imposed upon us if we don't vote for it first, by the IMF
    The idea that we are going to have to go to IMF is some weird sexual fantasy that some on the right have, a throwback to the 1970s, with very little basis in the modern world. It's like thinking that a new Carry On film would be a big success.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,638
    edited September 17
    Its quite funny, the public never very happy about defections without a by-election, but they also hate having unnecessary by-elections.

    Personally, it seems to me like it should be the rule that you have to have a by-election. A large proportion of the public aren't voting for the individual, they are voting for the party on the ticket, so the individual defecting is going against their stated wishes.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 16,224
    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    FPT...

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    algarkirk said:

    https://x.com/cllr_thomas/status/1967894303151206627?s=19

    Reform councillor walks out of local council meeting because they didnt acknowledge the death of a US political figure.
    Odd. Its Torfaen council, why would they?

    Indication though of what a Reform government is going to like and driven by. It is UK's Trump 2.0 and it is going to be disaster for this country and its institutions and all those dancing around in joyful anticipation of Nigel as PM are profoundly wrong.
    As much as we love our centrist Dads here, my thoughts on Reform are they will drift back as they drive away the Centre Right Grandpas and Grandmas
    How Reform plan to win and how Reform will govern are two separate questions. Neither has a clear answer and both should be issues for intense journalistic scrutiny.

    The second question is more important. Assuming we can put on one side a Reform government going Trumpian and seeking to prevent further free and fair elections (and IMO we can dismiss that) then the probability is that they will govern in such a way as to try to win a subsequent election in 4/5 years time. This imposes a very considerable limit on what they can do. They will continue to need the votes of people who rely on pensions, low inflation, NHS, housing including social housing, free education, not having a series of fiscal/debt crises, the welfare state and a reasonable supply of jobs provided by someone else. (Try asking the people of Clacton what they want in addition to fewer brown faces).

    This describes a high spend and high tax society in a social democracy. This is possible to do with fairly tightly closed borders, as is clearly Reform's policy. I suggest this (underneath all sorts of evasive rhetoric) is exactly what they will try to do.

    Whether it can be done is a question for Reform to answer, but not only Reform.
    I remain somewhat sceptical of this analysis.

    Firstly, Farage admires Trump. He still admires Trump while Trump is busy dismantling democratic norms in the US. This suggests to me that Farage would, given the opportunity, do just as much to dismantle democratic norms.

    Reform UK may well "continue to need the votes of people who rely on pensions, low inflation, NHS" etc. But that doesn't mean they won't enact policies counter to those voters' interests. The point is that they've drunk their own Kool-Aid. They believe that their policies will work. They won't, but as long they believe they'll work, they'll still introduce them. And if it looks like they aren't working, they'll just stop publishing the statistics that say that, as Trump has.

    Your analysis that satisfying their voters' expectations will require "a high spend and high tax society in a social democracy" is correct, but that doesn't mean Reform will aim for that. Plenty of radical right populists have gotten into power and enacted stupid policies counter to their voters' interests (e.g., Trump, Erdoğan, Milei... and perhaps one could include Putin too). Some radical right populists have bent to reality more (Meloni?), so is Farage more a Trump or a Meloni?
    Lol.

    Millei has done more for his people than any Argentine politician in living memory....
    The recent Buenos Aries elections suggest that much of the Argentinian electorate don't share that view.
    Parish council elections. I don't think they'll make much difference.

    CentristDadism is over, as evidenced by the failure of Sunak, the failure of Biden, the failure of repeated French govts etc etc

    Millei-esque politics will IMO end up being elected or imposed upon us here, as the burden of debt and entitlements continues to drag down our country.
    They are not parish council elections. They are the highest level of election below the national parliament. The electorate is about 50% of the full Argentine electorate. Milei's party underperformed polls. The Argentine peso notably sank after the result precisely because it was a bad result for Milei.

    The world is not divided between radical right politicians like Milei and CentristDadism. Don't be silly. Radical right parties have had success and failures. They advanced in the recent Norwegian general election, but lost the election to the centre-left. They fell back in Poland in June, losing to a centrist. The centre-left also won in South Korea that month. And so on.

    The UK economy is nothing like the Argentinian one and Milei-esque politics are not going to be needed or wanted.

    And it's Milei, one 'l'. If you're going to hero-worship the guy, learn to spell his name.
    Oh do get a sense of humour - the parish council jibe is a reference to local elections long used here and elsewhere.

    I didn't say it the world was divided between the failed Social Dadocracy and Milleism - but that I suspect the latter will likely imposed upon us if we don't vote for it first, by the IMF
    I wonder if that is the LDs big electoral problem - insufficient sense of humour? The lesson of Sir Keir Humourless is plain as day.

    Could you imagine a drink with Moran, or Cooper, or Davey? I can't. I'd rather have a pint with Farage or e.g. Jack Straw any day of the week.
    So speaks a man who has never witnessed a LibDem national conference after hours.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 14,273
    FWIW the 3 wards in Swindon are forecast on Nowcast to be as follows
    LD win Wroughton (LD 30 Ref 25 Con 20 approx)
    Ref win Chiseldon and Ridgeway from Con by about 5 points
    Thats a forecast based on 30 Ref 17 Con nationally

    Would make the Con lead approx 1500 over Ref and approx 2800 over LD if added to the totals from the 15 Wiltshire council wards voted on in May

    For illustrative purposes only.

    Tories would be the value bet as money would lump on Reform
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,341

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    FPT...

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    algarkirk said:

    https://x.com/cllr_thomas/status/1967894303151206627?s=19

    Reform councillor walks out of local council meeting because they didnt acknowledge the death of a US political figure.
    Odd. Its Torfaen council, why would they?

    Indication though of what a Reform government is going to like and driven by. It is UK's Trump 2.0 and it is going to be disaster for this country and its institutions and all those dancing around in joyful anticipation of Nigel as PM are profoundly wrong.
    As much as we love our centrist Dads here, my thoughts on Reform are they will drift back as they drive away the Centre Right Grandpas and Grandmas
    How Reform plan to win and how Reform will govern are two separate questions. Neither has a clear answer and both should be issues for intense journalistic scrutiny.

    The second question is more important. Assuming we can put on one side a Reform government going Trumpian and seeking to prevent further free and fair elections (and IMO we can dismiss that) then the probability is that they will govern in such a way as to try to win a subsequent election in 4/5 years time. This imposes a very considerable limit on what they can do. They will continue to need the votes of people who rely on pensions, low inflation, NHS, housing including social housing, free education, not having a series of fiscal/debt crises, the welfare state and a reasonable supply of jobs provided by someone else. (Try asking the people of Clacton what they want in addition to fewer brown faces).

    This describes a high spend and high tax society in a social democracy. This is possible to do with fairly tightly closed borders, as is clearly Reform's policy. I suggest this (underneath all sorts of evasive rhetoric) is exactly what they will try to do.

    Whether it can be done is a question for Reform to answer, but not only Reform.
    I remain somewhat sceptical of this analysis.

    Firstly, Farage admires Trump. He still admires Trump while Trump is busy dismantling democratic norms in the US. This suggests to me that Farage would, given the opportunity, do just as much to dismantle democratic norms.

    Reform UK may well "continue to need the votes of people who rely on pensions, low inflation, NHS" etc. But that doesn't mean they won't enact policies counter to those voters' interests. The point is that they've drunk their own Kool-Aid. They believe that their policies will work. They won't, but as long they believe they'll work, they'll still introduce them. And if it looks like they aren't working, they'll just stop publishing the statistics that say that, as Trump has.

    Your analysis that satisfying their voters' expectations will require "a high spend and high tax society in a social democracy" is correct, but that doesn't mean Reform will aim for that. Plenty of radical right populists have gotten into power and enacted stupid policies counter to their voters' interests (e.g., Trump, Erdoğan, Milei... and perhaps one could include Putin too). Some radical right populists have bent to reality more (Meloni?), so is Farage more a Trump or a Meloni?
    Lol.

    Millei has done more for his people than any Argentine politician in living memory....
    The recent Buenos Aries elections suggest that much of the Argentinian electorate don't share that view.
    Parish council elections. I don't think they'll make much difference.

    CentristDadism is over, as evidenced by the failure of Sunak, the failure of Biden, the failure of repeated French govts etc etc

    Millei-esque politics will IMO end up being elected or imposed upon us here, as the burden of debt and entitlements continues to drag down our country.
    They are not parish council elections. They are the highest level of election below the national parliament. The electorate is about 50% of the full Argentine electorate. Milei's party underperformed polls. The Argentine peso notably sank after the result precisely because it was a bad result for Milei.

    The world is not divided between radical right politicians like Milei and CentristDadism. Don't be silly. Radical right parties have had success and failures. They advanced in the recent Norwegian general election, but lost the election to the centre-left. They fell back in Poland in June, losing to a centrist. The centre-left also won in South Korea that month. And so on.

    The UK economy is nothing like the Argentinian one and Milei-esque politics are not going to be needed or wanted.

    And it's Milei, one 'l'. If you're going to hero-worship the guy, learn to spell his name.
    Oh do get a sense of humour - the parish council jibe is a reference to local elections long used here and elsewhere.

    I didn't say it the world was divided between the failed Social Dadocracy and Milleism - but that I suspect the latter will likely imposed upon us if we don't vote for it first, by the IMF
    I wonder if that is the LDs big electoral problem - insufficient sense of humour? The lesson of Sir Keir Humourless is plain as day.

    Could you imagine a drink with Moran, or Cooper, or Davey? I can't. I'd rather have a pint with Farage or e.g. Jack Straw any day of the week.
    So speaks a man who has never witnessed a LibDem national conference after hours.
    I have, sort of, actually; happened to be in the same city as one recently. The coffee shops were doing a roaring trade. The cocktail bars were deserted. Everyone was at a shanty night apparently...
  • isamisam Posts: 42,632
    Scott_xP said:
    I think he should call a by election, but I would love to see what you were saying about Christian Wakeford not holding one when he crossed the floor. If it was "coward" then fair play
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,341

    Mortimer said:

    FPT...

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    algarkirk said:

    https://x.com/cllr_thomas/status/1967894303151206627?s=19

    Reform councillor walks out of local council meeting because they didnt acknowledge the death of a US political figure.
    Odd. Its Torfaen council, why would they?

    Indication though of what a Reform government is going to like and driven by. It is UK's Trump 2.0 and it is going to be disaster for this country and its institutions and all those dancing around in joyful anticipation of Nigel as PM are profoundly wrong.
    As much as we love our centrist Dads here, my thoughts on Reform are they will drift back as they drive away the Centre Right Grandpas and Grandmas
    How Reform plan to win and how Reform will govern are two separate questions. Neither has a clear answer and both should be issues for intense journalistic scrutiny.

    The second question is more important. Assuming we can put on one side a Reform government going Trumpian and seeking to prevent further free and fair elections (and IMO we can dismiss that) then the probability is that they will govern in such a way as to try to win a subsequent election in 4/5 years time. This imposes a very considerable limit on what they can do. They will continue to need the votes of people who rely on pensions, low inflation, NHS, housing including social housing, free education, not having a series of fiscal/debt crises, the welfare state and a reasonable supply of jobs provided by someone else. (Try asking the people of Clacton what they want in addition to fewer brown faces).

    This describes a high spend and high tax society in a social democracy. This is possible to do with fairly tightly closed borders, as is clearly Reform's policy. I suggest this (underneath all sorts of evasive rhetoric) is exactly what they will try to do.

    Whether it can be done is a question for Reform to answer, but not only Reform.
    I remain somewhat sceptical of this analysis.

    Firstly, Farage admires Trump. He still admires Trump while Trump is busy dismantling democratic norms in the US. This suggests to me that Farage would, given the opportunity, do just as much to dismantle democratic norms.

    Reform UK may well "continue to need the votes of people who rely on pensions, low inflation, NHS" etc. But that doesn't mean they won't enact policies counter to those voters' interests. The point is that they've drunk their own Kool-Aid. They believe that their policies will work. They won't, but as long they believe they'll work, they'll still introduce them. And if it looks like they aren't working, they'll just stop publishing the statistics that say that, as Trump has.

    Your analysis that satisfying their voters' expectations will require "a high spend and high tax society in a social democracy" is correct, but that doesn't mean Reform will aim for that. Plenty of radical right populists have gotten into power and enacted stupid policies counter to their voters' interests (e.g., Trump, Erdoğan, Milei... and perhaps one could include Putin too). Some radical right populists have bent to reality more (Meloni?), so is Farage more a Trump or a Meloni?
    Lol.

    Millei has done more for his people than any Argentine politician in living memory....
    The recent Buenos Aries elections suggest that much of the Argentinian electorate don't share that view.
    Parish council elections. I don't think they'll make much difference.

    CentristDadism is over, as evidenced by the failure of Sunak, the failure of Biden, the failure of repeated French govts etc etc

    Millei-esque politics will IMO end up being elected or imposed upon us here, as the burden of debt and entitlements continues to drag down our country.
    They are not parish council elections. They are the highest level of election below the national parliament. The electorate is about 50% of the full Argentine electorate. Milei's party underperformed polls. The Argentine peso notably sank after the result precisely because it was a bad result for Milei.

    The world is not divided between radical right politicians like Milei and CentristDadism. Don't be silly. Radical right parties have had success and failures. They advanced in the recent Norwegian general election, but lost the election to the centre-left. They fell back in Poland in June, losing to a centrist. The centre-left also won in South Korea that month. And so on.

    The UK economy is nothing like the Argentinian one and Milei-esque politics are not going to be needed or wanted.

    And it's Milei, one 'l'. If you're going to hero-worship the guy, learn to spell his name.
    Oh do get a sense of humour - the parish council jibe is a reference to local elections long used here and elsewhere.

    I didn't say it the world was divided between the failed Social Dadocracy and Milleism - but that I suspect the latter will likely imposed upon us if we don't vote for it first, by the IMF
    The idea that we are going to have to go to IMF is some weird sexual fantasy that some on the right have, a throwback to the 1970s, with very little basis in the modern world. It's like thinking that a new Carry On film would be a big success.
    It has *literally* been mooted by serious economists

    Just because the lanyard class know they'll be the first for the job cuts, they tend to stick their fingers in their ears about it.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,974

    Mortimer said:

    More deportation flights planned for Labour's ‘one-in, one-out’ scheme took off without a single migrant on board again today.

    A scheduled Air France flight from London Heathrow this morning departed with no Channel migrants aboard. And migrants were also absent from another aircraft this afternoon which had previously been pinpointed by a French charity as a Home Office removals flight.

    This is an absolute joke
    Even if they do manage to get some people on flights, it is going to be interesting if they can ever scale it.

    The guy who has got the temporary injunction was chosen as he was supposedly an easy clear cut case.
    It is mental, why can the clowns not change the law, UK's only growth industry is government funded charities and quangos and grifting lawyers extorting the public purse due to idiot politician's who could not run a bath.
  • eekeek Posts: 31,304
    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    FPT...

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    algarkirk said:

    https://x.com/cllr_thomas/status/1967894303151206627?s=19

    Reform councillor walks out of local council meeting because they didnt acknowledge the death of a US political figure.
    Odd. Its Torfaen council, why would they?

    Indication though of what a Reform government is going to like and driven by. It is UK's Trump 2.0 and it is going to be disaster for this country and its institutions and all those dancing around in joyful anticipation of Nigel as PM are profoundly wrong.
    As much as we love our centrist Dads here, my thoughts on Reform are they will drift back as they drive away the Centre Right Grandpas and Grandmas
    How Reform plan to win and how Reform will govern are two separate questions. Neither has a clear answer and both should be issues for intense journalistic scrutiny.

    The second question is more important. Assuming we can put on one side a Reform government going Trumpian and seeking to prevent further free and fair elections (and IMO we can dismiss that) then the probability is that they will govern in such a way as to try to win a subsequent election in 4/5 years time. This imposes a very considerable limit on what they can do. They will continue to need the votes of people who rely on pensions, low inflation, NHS, housing including social housing, free education, not having a series of fiscal/debt crises, the welfare state and a reasonable supply of jobs provided by someone else. (Try asking the people of Clacton what they want in addition to fewer brown faces).

    This describes a high spend and high tax society in a social democracy. This is possible to do with fairly tightly closed borders, as is clearly Reform's policy. I suggest this (underneath all sorts of evasive rhetoric) is exactly what they will try to do.

    Whether it can be done is a question for Reform to answer, but not only Reform.
    I remain somewhat sceptical of this analysis.

    Firstly, Farage admires Trump. He still admires Trump while Trump is busy dismantling democratic norms in the US. This suggests to me that Farage would, given the opportunity, do just as much to dismantle democratic norms.

    Reform UK may well "continue to need the votes of people who rely on pensions, low inflation, NHS" etc. But that doesn't mean they won't enact policies counter to those voters' interests. The point is that they've drunk their own Kool-Aid. They believe that their policies will work. They won't, but as long they believe they'll work, they'll still introduce them. And if it looks like they aren't working, they'll just stop publishing the statistics that say that, as Trump has.

    Your analysis that satisfying their voters' expectations will require "a high spend and high tax society in a social democracy" is correct, but that doesn't mean Reform will aim for that. Plenty of radical right populists have gotten into power and enacted stupid policies counter to their voters' interests (e.g., Trump, Erdoğan, Milei... and perhaps one could include Putin too). Some radical right populists have bent to reality more (Meloni?), so is Farage more a Trump or a Meloni?
    Lol.

    Millei has done more for his people than any Argentine politician in living memory....
    The recent Buenos Aries elections suggest that much of the Argentinian electorate don't share that view.
    Parish council elections. I don't think they'll make much difference.

    CentristDadism is over, as evidenced by the failure of Sunak, the failure of Biden, the failure of repeated French govts etc etc

    Millei-esque politics will IMO end up being elected or imposed upon us here, as the burden of debt and entitlements continues to drag down our country.
    They are not parish council elections. They are the highest level of election below the national parliament. The electorate is about 50% of the full Argentine electorate. Milei's party underperformed polls. The Argentine peso notably sank after the result precisely because it was a bad result for Milei.

    The world is not divided between radical right politicians like Milei and CentristDadism. Don't be silly. Radical right parties have had success and failures. They advanced in the recent Norwegian general election, but lost the election to the centre-left. They fell back in Poland in June, losing to a centrist. The centre-left also won in South Korea that month. And so on.

    The UK economy is nothing like the Argentinian one and Milei-esque politics are not going to be needed or wanted.

    And it's Milei, one 'l'. If you're going to hero-worship the guy, learn to spell his name.
    Oh do get a sense of humour - the parish council jibe is a reference to local elections long used here and elsewhere.

    I didn't say it the world was divided between the failed Social Dadocracy and Milleism - but that I suspect the latter will likely imposed upon us if we don't vote for it first, by the IMF
    The idea that we are going to have to go to IMF is some weird sexual fantasy that some on the right have, a throwback to the 1970s, with very little basis in the modern world. It's like thinking that a new Carry On film would be a big success.
    It has *literally* been mooted by serious economists

    Just because the lanyard class know they'll be the first for the job cuts, they tend to stick their fingers in their ears about it.
    What would the IMF be providing - that’s the flaw in the IMF argument that no one answers so please tell us?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 25,823
    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    FPT...

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    algarkirk said:

    https://x.com/cllr_thomas/status/1967894303151206627?s=19

    Reform councillor walks out of local council meeting because they didnt acknowledge the death of a US political figure.
    Odd. Its Torfaen council, why would they?

    Indication though of what a Reform government is going to like and driven by. It is UK's Trump 2.0 and it is going to be disaster for this country and its institutions and all those dancing around in joyful anticipation of Nigel as PM are profoundly wrong.
    As much as we love our centrist Dads here, my thoughts on Reform are they will drift back as they drive away the Centre Right Grandpas and Grandmas
    How Reform plan to win and how Reform will govern are two separate questions. Neither has a clear answer and both should be issues for intense journalistic scrutiny.

    The second question is more important. Assuming we can put on one side a Reform government going Trumpian and seeking to prevent further free and fair elections (and IMO we can dismiss that) then the probability is that they will govern in such a way as to try to win a subsequent election in 4/5 years time. This imposes a very considerable limit on what they can do. They will continue to need the votes of people who rely on pensions, low inflation, NHS, housing including social housing, free education, not having a series of fiscal/debt crises, the welfare state and a reasonable supply of jobs provided by someone else. (Try asking the people of Clacton what they want in addition to fewer brown faces).

    This describes a high spend and high tax society in a social democracy. This is possible to do with fairly tightly closed borders, as is clearly Reform's policy. I suggest this (underneath all sorts of evasive rhetoric) is exactly what they will try to do.

    Whether it can be done is a question for Reform to answer, but not only Reform.
    I remain somewhat sceptical of this analysis.

    Firstly, Farage admires Trump. He still admires Trump while Trump is busy dismantling democratic norms in the US. This suggests to me that Farage would, given the opportunity, do just as much to dismantle democratic norms.

    Reform UK may well "continue to need the votes of people who rely on pensions, low inflation, NHS" etc. But that doesn't mean they won't enact policies counter to those voters' interests. The point is that they've drunk their own Kool-Aid. They believe that their policies will work. They won't, but as long they believe they'll work, they'll still introduce them. And if it looks like they aren't working, they'll just stop publishing the statistics that say that, as Trump has.

    Your analysis that satisfying their voters' expectations will require "a high spend and high tax society in a social democracy" is correct, but that doesn't mean Reform will aim for that. Plenty of radical right populists have gotten into power and enacted stupid policies counter to their voters' interests (e.g., Trump, Erdoğan, Milei... and perhaps one could include Putin too). Some radical right populists have bent to reality more (Meloni?), so is Farage more a Trump or a Meloni?
    Lol.

    Millei has done more for his people than any Argentine politician in living memory....
    The recent Buenos Aries elections suggest that much of the Argentinian electorate don't share that view.
    Parish council elections. I don't think they'll make much difference.

    CentristDadism is over, as evidenced by the failure of Sunak, the failure of Biden, the failure of repeated French govts etc etc

    Millei-esque politics will IMO end up being elected or imposed upon us here, as the burden of debt and entitlements continues to drag down our country.
    They are not parish council elections. They are the highest level of election below the national parliament. The electorate is about 50% of the full Argentine electorate. Milei's party underperformed polls. The Argentine peso notably sank after the result precisely because it was a bad result for Milei.

    The world is not divided between radical right politicians like Milei and CentristDadism. Don't be silly. Radical right parties have had success and failures. They advanced in the recent Norwegian general election, but lost the election to the centre-left. They fell back in Poland in June, losing to a centrist. The centre-left also won in South Korea that month. And so on.

    The UK economy is nothing like the Argentinian one and Milei-esque politics are not going to be needed or wanted.

    And it's Milei, one 'l'. If you're going to hero-worship the guy, learn to spell his name.
    Oh do get a sense of humour - the parish council jibe is a reference to local elections long used here and elsewhere.

    I didn't say it the world was divided between the failed Social Dadocracy and Milleism - but that I suspect the latter will likely imposed upon us if we don't vote for it first, by the IMF
    The idea that we are going to have to go to IMF is some weird sexual fantasy that some on the right have, a throwback to the 1970s, with very little basis in the modern world. It's like thinking that a new Carry On film would be a big success.
    It has *literally* been mooted by serious economists

    Just because the lanyard class know they'll be the first for the job cuts, they tend to stick their fingers in their ears about it.
    I wear a lanyard to work. Everybody who works in an office wears a lanyard to work. That's millions of people.
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 1,574

    RobD said:

    Mortimer said:

    More deportation flights planned for Labour's ‘one-in, one-out’ scheme took off without a single migrant on board again today.

    A scheduled Air France flight from London Heathrow this morning departed with no Channel migrants aboard. And migrants were also absent from another aircraft this afternoon which had previously been pinpointed by a French charity as a Home Office removals flight.

    This is an absolute joke
    Good on the judges for blocking these flights. Who in their right mind could support deporting them to that war-torn hellscape is beyond me.
    Quite. France is a hell hole for migrants according to the aid agencies etc.

    A country like that is a failed state. A failed state with oil.

    Are you thinking what I’m thinking, children?
    Frankly I'm horrified! And am glad the flights have been stopped, it's inexcusable.
    They should use the tunnel or ferries.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 14,273
    edited September 17
    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    FPT...

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    algarkirk said:

    https://x.com/cllr_thomas/status/1967894303151206627?s=19

    Reform councillor walks out of local council meeting because they didnt acknowledge the death of a US political figure.
    Odd. Its Torfaen council, why would they?

    Indication though of what a Reform government is going to like and driven by. It is UK's Trump 2.0 and it is going to be disaster for this country and its institutions and all those dancing around in joyful anticipation of Nigel as PM are profoundly wrong.
    As much as we love our centrist Dads here, my thoughts on Reform are they will drift back as they drive away the Centre Right Grandpas and Grandmas
    How Reform plan to win and how Reform will govern are two separate questions. Neither has a clear answer and both should be issues for intense journalistic scrutiny.

    The second question is more important. Assuming we can put on one side a Reform government going Trumpian and seeking to prevent further free and fair elections (and IMO we can dismiss that) then the probability is that they will govern in such a way as to try to win a subsequent election in 4/5 years time. This imposes a very considerable limit on what they can do. They will continue to need the votes of people who rely on pensions, low inflation, NHS, housing including social housing, free education, not having a series of fiscal/debt crises, the welfare state and a reasonable supply of jobs provided by someone else. (Try asking the people of Clacton what they want in addition to fewer brown faces).

    This describes a high spend and high tax society in a social democracy. This is possible to do with fairly tightly closed borders, as is clearly Reform's policy. I suggest this (underneath all sorts of evasive rhetoric) is exactly what they will try to do.

    Whether it can be done is a question for Reform to answer, but not only Reform.
    I remain somewhat sceptical of this analysis.

    Firstly, Farage admires Trump. He still admires Trump while Trump is busy dismantling democratic norms in the US. This suggests to me that Farage would, given the opportunity, do just as much to dismantle democratic norms.

    Reform UK may well "continue to need the votes of people who rely on pensions, low inflation, NHS" etc. But that doesn't mean they won't enact policies counter to those voters' interests. The point is that they've drunk their own Kool-Aid. They believe that their policies will work. They won't, but as long they believe they'll work, they'll still introduce them. And if it looks like they aren't working, they'll just stop publishing the statistics that say that, as Trump has.

    Your analysis that satisfying their voters' expectations will require "a high spend and high tax society in a social democracy" is correct, but that doesn't mean Reform will aim for that. Plenty of radical right populists have gotten into power and enacted stupid policies counter to their voters' interests (e.g., Trump, Erdoğan, Milei... and perhaps one could include Putin too). Some radical right populists have bent to reality more (Meloni?), so is Farage more a Trump or a Meloni?
    Lol.

    Millei has done more for his people than any Argentine politician in living memory....
    The recent Buenos Aries elections suggest that much of the Argentinian electorate don't share that view.
    Parish council elections. I don't think they'll make much difference.

    CentristDadism is over, as evidenced by the failure of Sunak, the failure of Biden, the failure of repeated French govts etc etc

    Millei-esque politics will IMO end up being elected or imposed upon us here, as the burden of debt and entitlements continues to drag down our country.
    They are not parish council elections. They are the highest level of election below the national parliament. The electorate is about 50% of the full Argentine electorate. Milei's party underperformed polls. The Argentine peso notably sank after the result precisely because it was a bad result for Milei.

    The world is not divided between radical right politicians like Milei and CentristDadism. Don't be silly. Radical right parties have had success and failures. They advanced in the recent Norwegian general election, but lost the election to the centre-left. They fell back in Poland in June, losing to a centrist. The centre-left also won in South Korea that month. And so on.

    The UK economy is nothing like the Argentinian one and Milei-esque politics are not going to be needed or wanted.

    And it's Milei, one 'l'. If you're going to hero-worship the guy, learn to spell his name.
    Oh do get a sense of humour - the parish council jibe is a reference to local elections long used here and elsewhere.

    I didn't say it the world was divided between the failed Social Dadocracy and Milleism - but that I suspect the latter will likely imposed upon us if we don't vote for it first, by the IMF
    I wonder if that is the LDs big electoral problem - insufficient sense of humour? The lesson of Sir Keir Humourless is plain as day.

    Could you imagine a drink with Moran, or Cooper, or Davey? I can't. I'd rather have a pint with Farage or e.g. Jack Straw any day of the week.
    I might have a pint with Davey but I get the impression after an initial pleasant chuckle he'd get very very earnest and I'd have to do a bunk. Not Moran or Cooper, far too grimly serious. Definitely Norman Lamb or Steff Aquarone
  • isamisam Posts: 42,632
    viewcode said:

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    FPT...

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    algarkirk said:

    https://x.com/cllr_thomas/status/1967894303151206627?s=19

    Reform councillor walks out of local council meeting because they didnt acknowledge the death of a US political figure.
    Odd. Its Torfaen council, why would they?

    Indication though of what a Reform government is going to like and driven by. It is UK's Trump 2.0 and it is going to be disaster for this country and its institutions and all those dancing around in joyful anticipation of Nigel as PM are profoundly wrong.
    As much as we love our centrist Dads here, my thoughts on Reform are they will drift back as they drive away the Centre Right Grandpas and Grandmas
    How Reform plan to win and how Reform will govern are two separate questions. Neither has a clear answer and both should be issues for intense journalistic scrutiny.

    The second question is more important. Assuming we can put on one side a Reform government going Trumpian and seeking to prevent further free and fair elections (and IMO we can dismiss that) then the probability is that they will govern in such a way as to try to win a subsequent election in 4/5 years time. This imposes a very considerable limit on what they can do. They will continue to need the votes of people who rely on pensions, low inflation, NHS, housing including social housing, free education, not having a series of fiscal/debt crises, the welfare state and a reasonable supply of jobs provided by someone else. (Try asking the people of Clacton what they want in addition to fewer brown faces).

    This describes a high spend and high tax society in a social democracy. This is possible to do with fairly tightly closed borders, as is clearly Reform's policy. I suggest this (underneath all sorts of evasive rhetoric) is exactly what they will try to do.

    Whether it can be done is a question for Reform to answer, but not only Reform.
    I remain somewhat sceptical of this analysis.

    Firstly, Farage admires Trump. He still admires Trump while Trump is busy dismantling democratic norms in the US. This suggests to me that Farage would, given the opportunity, do just as much to dismantle democratic norms.

    Reform UK may well "continue to need the votes of people who rely on pensions, low inflation, NHS" etc. But that doesn't mean they won't enact policies counter to those voters' interests. The point is that they've drunk their own Kool-Aid. They believe that their policies will work. They won't, but as long they believe they'll work, they'll still introduce them. And if it looks like they aren't working, they'll just stop publishing the statistics that say that, as Trump has.

    Your analysis that satisfying their voters' expectations will require "a high spend and high tax society in a social democracy" is correct, but that doesn't mean Reform will aim for that. Plenty of radical right populists have gotten into power and enacted stupid policies counter to their voters' interests (e.g., Trump, Erdoğan, Milei... and perhaps one could include Putin too). Some radical right populists have bent to reality more (Meloni?), so is Farage more a Trump or a Meloni?
    Lol.

    Millei has done more for his people than any Argentine politician in living memory....
    The recent Buenos Aries elections suggest that much of the Argentinian electorate don't share that view.
    Parish council elections. I don't think they'll make much difference.

    CentristDadism is over, as evidenced by the failure of Sunak, the failure of Biden, the failure of repeated French govts etc etc

    Millei-esque politics will IMO end up being elected or imposed upon us here, as the burden of debt and entitlements continues to drag down our country.
    They are not parish council elections. They are the highest level of election below the national parliament. The electorate is about 50% of the full Argentine electorate. Milei's party underperformed polls. The Argentine peso notably sank after the result precisely because it was a bad result for Milei.

    The world is not divided between radical right politicians like Milei and CentristDadism. Don't be silly. Radical right parties have had success and failures. They advanced in the recent Norwegian general election, but lost the election to the centre-left. They fell back in Poland in June, losing to a centrist. The centre-left also won in South Korea that month. And so on.

    The UK economy is nothing like the Argentinian one and Milei-esque politics are not going to be needed or wanted.

    And it's Milei, one 'l'. If you're going to hero-worship the guy, learn to spell his name.
    Oh do get a sense of humour - the parish council jibe is a reference to local elections long used here and elsewhere.

    I didn't say it the world was divided between the failed Social Dadocracy and Milleism - but that I suspect the latter will likely imposed upon us if we don't vote for it first, by the IMF
    The idea that we are going to have to go to IMF is some weird sexual fantasy that some on the right have, a throwback to the 1970s, with very little basis in the modern world. It's like thinking that a new Carry On film would be a big success.
    It has *literally* been mooted by serious economists

    Just because the lanyard class know they'll be the first for the job cuts, they tend to stick their fingers in their ears about it.
    I wear a lanyard to work. Everybody who works in an office wears a lanyard to work. That's millions of people.
    Do they really? It has been 14 years since I worked in an office, so I know very little about modern office life. I certainly didn't know that
  • I think Parliament should make it compulsory and not for any other reason than the democratic mandate

    And watching the events for Trump this afternoon I agree with Mark Stone of Sky

    He said 'You could see Trump was loving it but the missing ingredient was the public and it was so sterile'
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,638
    edited September 17
    Dopermean said:

    RobD said:

    Mortimer said:

    More deportation flights planned for Labour's ‘one-in, one-out’ scheme took off without a single migrant on board again today.

    A scheduled Air France flight from London Heathrow this morning departed with no Channel migrants aboard. And migrants were also absent from another aircraft this afternoon which had previously been pinpointed by a French charity as a Home Office removals flight.

    This is an absolute joke
    Good on the judges for blocking these flights. Who in their right mind could support deporting them to that war-torn hellscape is beyond me.
    Quite. France is a hell hole for migrants according to the aid agencies etc.

    A country like that is a failed state. A failed state with oil.

    Are you thinking what I’m thinking, children?
    Frankly I'm horrified! And am glad the flights have been stopped, it's inexcusable.
    They should use the tunnel or ferries.
    It is a very odd decision why they must fly people back to France on commercial flights. Why not a coach or a train?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 45,550
    isam said:

    viewcode said:

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    FPT...

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    algarkirk said:

    https://x.com/cllr_thomas/status/1967894303151206627?s=19

    Reform councillor walks out of local council meeting because they didnt acknowledge the death of a US political figure.
    Odd. Its Torfaen council, why would they?

    Indication though of what a Reform government is going to like and driven by. It is UK's Trump 2.0 and it is going to be disaster for this country and its institutions and all those dancing around in joyful anticipation of Nigel as PM are profoundly wrong.
    As much as we love our centrist Dads here, my thoughts on Reform are they will drift back as they drive away the Centre Right Grandpas and Grandmas
    How Reform plan to win and how Reform will govern are two separate questions. Neither has a clear answer and both should be issues for intense journalistic scrutiny.

    The second question is more important. Assuming we can put on one side a Reform government going Trumpian and seeking to prevent further free and fair elections (and IMO we can dismiss that) then the probability is that they will govern in such a way as to try to win a subsequent election in 4/5 years time. This imposes a very considerable limit on what they can do. They will continue to need the votes of people who rely on pensions, low inflation, NHS, housing including social housing, free education, not having a series of fiscal/debt crises, the welfare state and a reasonable supply of jobs provided by someone else. (Try asking the people of Clacton what they want in addition to fewer brown faces).

    This describes a high spend and high tax society in a social democracy. This is possible to do with fairly tightly closed borders, as is clearly Reform's policy. I suggest this (underneath all sorts of evasive rhetoric) is exactly what they will try to do.

    Whether it can be done is a question for Reform to answer, but not only Reform.
    I remain somewhat sceptical of this analysis.

    Firstly, Farage admires Trump. He still admires Trump while Trump is busy dismantling democratic norms in the US. This suggests to me that Farage would, given the opportunity, do just as much to dismantle democratic norms.

    Reform UK may well "continue to need the votes of people who rely on pensions, low inflation, NHS" etc. But that doesn't mean they won't enact policies counter to those voters' interests. The point is that they've drunk their own Kool-Aid. They believe that their policies will work. They won't, but as long they believe they'll work, they'll still introduce them. And if it looks like they aren't working, they'll just stop publishing the statistics that say that, as Trump has.

    Your analysis that satisfying their voters' expectations will require "a high spend and high tax society in a social democracy" is correct, but that doesn't mean Reform will aim for that. Plenty of radical right populists have gotten into power and enacted stupid policies counter to their voters' interests (e.g., Trump, Erdoğan, Milei... and perhaps one could include Putin too). Some radical right populists have bent to reality more (Meloni?), so is Farage more a Trump or a Meloni?
    Lol.

    Millei has done more for his people than any Argentine politician in living memory....
    The recent Buenos Aries elections suggest that much of the Argentinian electorate don't share that view.
    Parish council elections. I don't think they'll make much difference.

    CentristDadism is over, as evidenced by the failure of Sunak, the failure of Biden, the failure of repeated French govts etc etc

    Millei-esque politics will IMO end up being elected or imposed upon us here, as the burden of debt and entitlements continues to drag down our country.
    They are not parish council elections. They are the highest level of election below the national parliament. The electorate is about 50% of the full Argentine electorate. Milei's party underperformed polls. The Argentine peso notably sank after the result precisely because it was a bad result for Milei.

    The world is not divided between radical right politicians like Milei and CentristDadism. Don't be silly. Radical right parties have had success and failures. They advanced in the recent Norwegian general election, but lost the election to the centre-left. They fell back in Poland in June, losing to a centrist. The centre-left also won in South Korea that month. And so on.

    The UK economy is nothing like the Argentinian one and Milei-esque politics are not going to be needed or wanted.

    And it's Milei, one 'l'. If you're going to hero-worship the guy, learn to spell his name.
    Oh do get a sense of humour - the parish council jibe is a reference to local elections long used here and elsewhere.

    I didn't say it the world was divided between the failed Social Dadocracy and Milleism - but that I suspect the latter will likely imposed upon us if we don't vote for it first, by the IMF
    The idea that we are going to have to go to IMF is some weird sexual fantasy that some on the right have, a throwback to the 1970s, with very little basis in the modern world. It's like thinking that a new Carry On film would be a big success.
    It has *literally* been mooted by serious economists

    Just because the lanyard class know they'll be the first for the job cuts, they tend to stick their fingers in their ears about it.
    I wear a lanyard to work. Everybody who works in an office wears a lanyard to work. That's millions of people.
    Do they really? It has been 14 years since I worked in an office, so I know very little about modern office life. I certainly didn't know that
    Basic security pass - (a) so you can spot the strangers in the building and (b) need to be on a lanyard to swipe the card/badge against the machine on the wall.

  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 32,617
    malcolmg said:

    Mortimer said:

    More deportation flights planned for Labour's ‘one-in, one-out’ scheme took off without a single migrant on board again today.

    A scheduled Air France flight from London Heathrow this morning departed with no Channel migrants aboard. And migrants were also absent from another aircraft this afternoon which had previously been pinpointed by a French charity as a Home Office removals flight.

    This is an absolute joke
    Even if they do manage to get some people on flights, it is going to be interesting if they can ever scale it.

    The guy who has got the temporary injunction was chosen as he was supposedly an easy clear cut case.
    It is mental, why can the clowns not change the law, UK's only growth industry is government funded charities and quangos and grifting lawyers extorting the public purse due to idiot politician's who could not run a bath.
    Keir Starmer can't change the system because he is the system.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,341
    eek said:

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    FPT...

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    algarkirk said:

    https://x.com/cllr_thomas/status/1967894303151206627?s=19

    Reform councillor walks out of local council meeting because they didnt acknowledge the death of a US political figure.
    Odd. Its Torfaen council, why would they?

    Indication though of what a Reform government is going to like and driven by. It is UK's Trump 2.0 and it is going to be disaster for this country and its institutions and all those dancing around in joyful anticipation of Nigel as PM are profoundly wrong.
    As much as we love our centrist Dads here, my thoughts on Reform are they will drift back as they drive away the Centre Right Grandpas and Grandmas
    How Reform plan to win and how Reform will govern are two separate questions. Neither has a clear answer and both should be issues for intense journalistic scrutiny.

    The second question is more important. Assuming we can put on one side a Reform government going Trumpian and seeking to prevent further free and fair elections (and IMO we can dismiss that) then the probability is that they will govern in such a way as to try to win a subsequent election in 4/5 years time. This imposes a very considerable limit on what they can do. They will continue to need the votes of people who rely on pensions, low inflation, NHS, housing including social housing, free education, not having a series of fiscal/debt crises, the welfare state and a reasonable supply of jobs provided by someone else. (Try asking the people of Clacton what they want in addition to fewer brown faces).

    This describes a high spend and high tax society in a social democracy. This is possible to do with fairly tightly closed borders, as is clearly Reform's policy. I suggest this (underneath all sorts of evasive rhetoric) is exactly what they will try to do.

    Whether it can be done is a question for Reform to answer, but not only Reform.
    I remain somewhat sceptical of this analysis.

    Firstly, Farage admires Trump. He still admires Trump while Trump is busy dismantling democratic norms in the US. This suggests to me that Farage would, given the opportunity, do just as much to dismantle democratic norms.

    Reform UK may well "continue to need the votes of people who rely on pensions, low inflation, NHS" etc. But that doesn't mean they won't enact policies counter to those voters' interests. The point is that they've drunk their own Kool-Aid. They believe that their policies will work. They won't, but as long they believe they'll work, they'll still introduce them. And if it looks like they aren't working, they'll just stop publishing the statistics that say that, as Trump has.

    Your analysis that satisfying their voters' expectations will require "a high spend and high tax society in a social democracy" is correct, but that doesn't mean Reform will aim for that. Plenty of radical right populists have gotten into power and enacted stupid policies counter to their voters' interests (e.g., Trump, Erdoğan, Milei... and perhaps one could include Putin too). Some radical right populists have bent to reality more (Meloni?), so is Farage more a Trump or a Meloni?
    Lol.

    Millei has done more for his people than any Argentine politician in living memory....
    The recent Buenos Aries elections suggest that much of the Argentinian electorate don't share that view.
    Parish council elections. I don't think they'll make much difference.

    CentristDadism is over, as evidenced by the failure of Sunak, the failure of Biden, the failure of repeated French govts etc etc

    Millei-esque politics will IMO end up being elected or imposed upon us here, as the burden of debt and entitlements continues to drag down our country.
    They are not parish council elections. They are the highest level of election below the national parliament. The electorate is about 50% of the full Argentine electorate. Milei's party underperformed polls. The Argentine peso notably sank after the result precisely because it was a bad result for Milei.

    The world is not divided between radical right politicians like Milei and CentristDadism. Don't be silly. Radical right parties have had success and failures. They advanced in the recent Norwegian general election, but lost the election to the centre-left. They fell back in Poland in June, losing to a centrist. The centre-left also won in South Korea that month. And so on.

    The UK economy is nothing like the Argentinian one and Milei-esque politics are not going to be needed or wanted.

    And it's Milei, one 'l'. If you're going to hero-worship the guy, learn to spell his name.
    Oh do get a sense of humour - the parish council jibe is a reference to local elections long used here and elsewhere.

    I didn't say it the world was divided between the failed Social Dadocracy and Milleism - but that I suspect the latter will likely imposed upon us if we don't vote for it first, by the IMF
    The idea that we are going to have to go to IMF is some weird sexual fantasy that some on the right have, a throwback to the 1970s, with very little basis in the modern world. It's like thinking that a new Carry On film would be a big success.
    It has *literally* been mooted by serious economists

    Just because the lanyard class know they'll be the first for the job cuts, they tend to stick their fingers in their ears about it.
    What would the IMF be providing - that’s the flaw in the IMF argument that no one answers so please tell us?
    Err, keep up at the back - a bailout when our debt becomes too onerous to service. It isn't rocket science; just economics
  • FossFoss Posts: 1,677
    edited September 17

    Dopermean said:

    RobD said:

    Mortimer said:

    More deportation flights planned for Labour's ‘one-in, one-out’ scheme took off without a single migrant on board again today.

    A scheduled Air France flight from London Heathrow this morning departed with no Channel migrants aboard. And migrants were also absent from another aircraft this afternoon which had previously been pinpointed by a French charity as a Home Office removals flight.

    This is an absolute joke
    Good on the judges for blocking these flights. Who in their right mind could support deporting them to that war-torn hellscape is beyond me.
    Quite. France is a hell hole for migrants according to the aid agencies etc.

    A country like that is a failed state. A failed state with oil.

    Are you thinking what I’m thinking, children?
    Frankly I'm horrified! And am glad the flights have been stopped, it's inexcusable.
    They should use the tunnel or ferries.
    It is a very odd decision why they must fly people back to France.
    It increases the cost to benefit ratio and so makes it easier to attack as pointless.
  • eekeek Posts: 31,304

    I think Parliament should make it compulsory and not for any other reason than the democratic mandate

    And watching the events for Trump this afternoon I agree with Mark Stone of Sky

    He said 'You could see Trump was loving it but the missing ingredient was the public and it was so sterile'

    What democratic mandate, you vote for a candidate to represent you as a constituent until the next election - just because most people vote on the colour of the rosette the candidate is wearing doesn’t change the real basis of the vote
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 15,472
    RobD said:

    I wonder why he ruled one out. He’d win, surely?

    No certainty at all. If there was he would stand down. The nearest thing to certain is that the Tories would not win. The next nearest certainty is that the contest would coalesce around two parties, of which Reform is 100% certain to be one and the LDs 75% certain to be the other because of by election tradition and because 2nd place Labour are marginally less popular than bubonic plague at the moment.

    In most seats Reform can't win if non Reform voters act intelligently.

    Sub plot: if there were a by election a loonie ultra right party (can't remember their names) would stand, taking votes off Reform. A Jezbollah candidate might take votes off Labour.

    In this election which isn't occurring IMO LDs would start at evens. Reform 6/4.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 45,550
    Foss said:

    Dopermean said:

    RobD said:

    Mortimer said:

    More deportation flights planned for Labour's ‘one-in, one-out’ scheme took off without a single migrant on board again today.

    A scheduled Air France flight from London Heathrow this morning departed with no Channel migrants aboard. And migrants were also absent from another aircraft this afternoon which had previously been pinpointed by a French charity as a Home Office removals flight.

    This is an absolute joke
    Good on the judges for blocking these flights. Who in their right mind could support deporting them to that war-torn hellscape is beyond me.
    Quite. France is a hell hole for migrants according to the aid agencies etc.

    A country like that is a failed state. A failed state with oil.

    Are you thinking what I’m thinking, children?
    Frankly I'm horrified! And am glad the flights have been stopped, it's inexcusable.
    They should use the tunnel or ferries.
    It is a very odd decision why they must fly people back to France.
    It reduces the cost to benefit ratio and so makes it easier to attack as pointless.
    Hang on, you're saying it is more efficient?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 29,855
    One that might spoil your tea.

    An aside on reading unfiltered religion into politics, Marjorie Taylor-Greene's reasons for wanting to bring forward a bill to ban weather modification (eg cloud seeding), which came up on my feed:

    https://youtu.be/2iCih1gAQBo?t=566

    Straight from her dogma, avoiding the brain or thought or reflection or logic, and into the political programme.

    In addition to the complete absence of any thought filter, and the cartoon theology, there's also the practical implementation problem that the EPA she wants to use to enforce the ban is in process of being effectively abolished by Mr Trump. If it's 'perfect creation', she hasn't explained (or presumably thought about) why she supports pumping more and more fossil fuel emissions into it.

    Some of them seem to be like this on Israel in their thought processes.
  • isam said:

    viewcode said:

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    FPT...

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    algarkirk said:

    https://x.com/cllr_thomas/status/1967894303151206627?s=19

    Reform councillor walks out of local council meeting because they didnt acknowledge the death of a US political figure.
    Odd. Its Torfaen council, why would they?

    Indication though of what a Reform government is going to like and driven by. It is UK's Trump 2.0 and it is going to be disaster for this country and its institutions and all those dancing around in joyful anticipation of Nigel as PM are profoundly wrong.
    As much as we love our centrist Dads here, my thoughts on Reform are they will drift back as they drive away the Centre Right Grandpas and Grandmas
    How Reform plan to win and how Reform will govern are two separate questions. Neither has a clear answer and both should be issues for intense journalistic scrutiny.

    The second question is more important. Assuming we can put on one side a Reform government going Trumpian and seeking to prevent further free and fair elections (and IMO we can dismiss that) then the probability is that they will govern in such a way as to try to win a subsequent election in 4/5 years time. This imposes a very considerable limit on what they can do. They will continue to need the votes of people who rely on pensions, low inflation, NHS, housing including social housing, free education, not having a series of fiscal/debt crises, the welfare state and a reasonable supply of jobs provided by someone else. (Try asking the people of Clacton what they want in addition to fewer brown faces).

    This describes a high spend and high tax society in a social democracy. This is possible to do with fairly tightly closed borders, as is clearly Reform's policy. I suggest this (underneath all sorts of evasive rhetoric) is exactly what they will try to do.

    Whether it can be done is a question for Reform to answer, but not only Reform.
    I remain somewhat sceptical of this analysis.

    Firstly, Farage admires Trump. He still admires Trump while Trump is busy dismantling democratic norms in the US. This suggests to me that Farage would, given the opportunity, do just as much to dismantle democratic norms.

    Reform UK may well "continue to need the votes of people who rely on pensions, low inflation, NHS" etc. But that doesn't mean they won't enact policies counter to those voters' interests. The point is that they've drunk their own Kool-Aid. They believe that their policies will work. They won't, but as long they believe they'll work, they'll still introduce them. And if it looks like they aren't working, they'll just stop publishing the statistics that say that, as Trump has.

    Your analysis that satisfying their voters' expectations will require "a high spend and high tax society in a social democracy" is correct, but that doesn't mean Reform will aim for that. Plenty of radical right populists have gotten into power and enacted stupid policies counter to their voters' interests (e.g., Trump, Erdoğan, Milei... and perhaps one could include Putin too). Some radical right populists have bent to reality more (Meloni?), so is Farage more a Trump or a Meloni?
    Lol.

    Millei has done more for his people than any Argentine politician in living memory....
    The recent Buenos Aries elections suggest that much of the Argentinian electorate don't share that view.
    Parish council elections. I don't think they'll make much difference.

    CentristDadism is over, as evidenced by the failure of Sunak, the failure of Biden, the failure of repeated French govts etc etc

    Millei-esque politics will IMO end up being elected or imposed upon us here, as the burden of debt and entitlements continues to drag down our country.
    They are not parish council elections. They are the highest level of election below the national parliament. The electorate is about 50% of the full Argentine electorate. Milei's party underperformed polls. The Argentine peso notably sank after the result precisely because it was a bad result for Milei.

    The world is not divided between radical right politicians like Milei and CentristDadism. Don't be silly. Radical right parties have had success and failures. They advanced in the recent Norwegian general election, but lost the election to the centre-left. They fell back in Poland in June, losing to a centrist. The centre-left also won in South Korea that month. And so on.

    The UK economy is nothing like the Argentinian one and Milei-esque politics are not going to be needed or wanted.

    And it's Milei, one 'l'. If you're going to hero-worship the guy, learn to spell his name.
    Oh do get a sense of humour - the parish council jibe is a reference to local elections long used here and elsewhere.

    I didn't say it the world was divided between the failed Social Dadocracy and Milleism - but that I suspect the latter will likely imposed upon us if we don't vote for it first, by the IMF
    The idea that we are going to have to go to IMF is some weird sexual fantasy that some on the right have, a throwback to the 1970s, with very little basis in the modern world. It's like thinking that a new Carry On film would be a big success.
    It has *literally* been mooted by serious economists

    Just because the lanyard class know they'll be the first for the job cuts, they tend to stick their fingers in their ears about it.
    I wear a lanyard to work. Everybody who works in an office wears a lanyard to work. That's millions of people.
    Do they really? It has been 14 years since I worked in an office, so I know very little about modern office life. I certainly didn't know that
    I cannot get into the office without swiping my keycard, if I put my keycard in my wallet sometimes it stops working, so I put my keycard in a lanyard.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 56,957

    malcolmg said:

    Mortimer said:

    More deportation flights planned for Labour's ‘one-in, one-out’ scheme took off without a single migrant on board again today.

    A scheduled Air France flight from London Heathrow this morning departed with no Channel migrants aboard. And migrants were also absent from another aircraft this afternoon which had previously been pinpointed by a French charity as a Home Office removals flight.

    This is an absolute joke
    Even if they do manage to get some people on flights, it is going to be interesting if they can ever scale it.

    The guy who has got the temporary injunction was chosen as he was supposedly an easy clear cut case.
    It is mental, why can the clowns not change the law, UK's only growth industry is government funded charities and quangos and grifting lawyers extorting the public purse due to idiot politician's who could not run a bath.
    Keir Starmer can't change the system because he is the system.
    Wrong

    He is a very small cog in the machine. That’s how he acts.
  • FossFoss Posts: 1,677
    Carnyx said:

    Foss said:

    Dopermean said:

    RobD said:

    Mortimer said:

    More deportation flights planned for Labour's ‘one-in, one-out’ scheme took off without a single migrant on board again today.

    A scheduled Air France flight from London Heathrow this morning departed with no Channel migrants aboard. And migrants were also absent from another aircraft this afternoon which had previously been pinpointed by a French charity as a Home Office removals flight.

    This is an absolute joke
    Good on the judges for blocking these flights. Who in their right mind could support deporting them to that war-torn hellscape is beyond me.
    Quite. France is a hell hole for migrants according to the aid agencies etc.

    A country like that is a failed state. A failed state with oil.

    Are you thinking what I’m thinking, children?
    Frankly I'm horrified! And am glad the flights have been stopped, it's inexcusable.
    They should use the tunnel or ferries.
    It is a very odd decision why they must fly people back to France.
    It reduces the cost to benefit ratio and so makes it easier to attack as pointless.
    Hang on, you're saying it is more efficient?
    Long day moment.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 56,957
    Mortimer said:

    eek said:

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    FPT...

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    algarkirk said:

    https://x.com/cllr_thomas/status/1967894303151206627?s=19

    Reform councillor walks out of local council meeting because they didnt acknowledge the death of a US political figure.
    Odd. Its Torfaen council, why would they?

    Indication though of what a Reform government is going to like and driven by. It is UK's Trump 2.0 and it is going to be disaster for this country and its institutions and all those dancing around in joyful anticipation of Nigel as PM are profoundly wrong.
    As much as we love our centrist Dads here, my thoughts on Reform are they will drift back as they drive away the Centre Right Grandpas and Grandmas
    How Reform plan to win and how Reform will govern are two separate questions. Neither has a clear answer and both should be issues for intense journalistic scrutiny.

    The second question is more important. Assuming we can put on one side a Reform government going Trumpian and seeking to prevent further free and fair elections (and IMO we can dismiss that) then the probability is that they will govern in such a way as to try to win a subsequent election in 4/5 years time. This imposes a very considerable limit on what they can do. They will continue to need the votes of people who rely on pensions, low inflation, NHS, housing including social housing, free education, not having a series of fiscal/debt crises, the welfare state and a reasonable supply of jobs provided by someone else. (Try asking the people of Clacton what they want in addition to fewer brown faces).

    This describes a high spend and high tax society in a social democracy. This is possible to do with fairly tightly closed borders, as is clearly Reform's policy. I suggest this (underneath all sorts of evasive rhetoric) is exactly what they will try to do.

    Whether it can be done is a question for Reform to answer, but not only Reform.
    I remain somewhat sceptical of this analysis.

    Firstly, Farage admires Trump. He still admires Trump while Trump is busy dismantling democratic norms in the US. This suggests to me that Farage would, given the opportunity, do just as much to dismantle democratic norms.

    Reform UK may well "continue to need the votes of people who rely on pensions, low inflation, NHS" etc. But that doesn't mean they won't enact policies counter to those voters' interests. The point is that they've drunk their own Kool-Aid. They believe that their policies will work. They won't, but as long they believe they'll work, they'll still introduce them. And if it looks like they aren't working, they'll just stop publishing the statistics that say that, as Trump has.

    Your analysis that satisfying their voters' expectations will require "a high spend and high tax society in a social democracy" is correct, but that doesn't mean Reform will aim for that. Plenty of radical right populists have gotten into power and enacted stupid policies counter to their voters' interests (e.g., Trump, Erdoğan, Milei... and perhaps one could include Putin too). Some radical right populists have bent to reality more (Meloni?), so is Farage more a Trump or a Meloni?
    Lol.

    Millei has done more for his people than any Argentine politician in living memory....
    The recent Buenos Aries elections suggest that much of the Argentinian electorate don't share that view.
    Parish council elections. I don't think they'll make much difference.

    CentristDadism is over, as evidenced by the failure of Sunak, the failure of Biden, the failure of repeated French govts etc etc

    Millei-esque politics will IMO end up being elected or imposed upon us here, as the burden of debt and entitlements continues to drag down our country.
    They are not parish council elections. They are the highest level of election below the national parliament. The electorate is about 50% of the full Argentine electorate. Milei's party underperformed polls. The Argentine peso notably sank after the result precisely because it was a bad result for Milei.

    The world is not divided between radical right politicians like Milei and CentristDadism. Don't be silly. Radical right parties have had success and failures. They advanced in the recent Norwegian general election, but lost the election to the centre-left. They fell back in Poland in June, losing to a centrist. The centre-left also won in South Korea that month. And so on.

    The UK economy is nothing like the Argentinian one and Milei-esque politics are not going to be needed or wanted.

    And it's Milei, one 'l'. If you're going to hero-worship the guy, learn to spell his name.
    Oh do get a sense of humour - the parish council jibe is a reference to local elections long used here and elsewhere.

    I didn't say it the world was divided between the failed Social Dadocracy and Milleism - but that I suspect the latter will likely imposed upon us if we don't vote for it first, by the IMF
    The idea that we are going to have to go to IMF is some weird sexual fantasy that some on the right have, a throwback to the 1970s, with very little basis in the modern world. It's like thinking that a new Carry On film would be a big success.
    It has *literally* been mooted by serious economists

    Just because the lanyard class know they'll be the first for the job cuts, they tend to stick their fingers in their ears about it.
    What would the IMF be providing - that’s the flaw in the IMF argument that no one answers so please tell us?
    Err, keep up at the back - a bailout when our debt becomes too onerous to service. It isn't rocket science; just economics
    The IMF couldn’t help us - to start with we are too big.

    Anyway, first we would have

    - government forcing the banks and pension funds to invest at a low rate in government bonds.
    - When that goes tits up, money printing
    - Capital flight
    - A broken back economy (Argentina style) for X years.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 15,472
    Mortimer said:

    eek said:

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    FPT...

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    algarkirk said:

    https://x.com/cllr_thomas/status/1967894303151206627?s=19

    Reform councillor walks out of local council meeting because they didnt acknowledge the death of a US political figure.
    Odd. Its Torfaen council, why would they?

    Indication though of what a Reform government is going to like and driven by. It is UK's Trump 2.0 and it is going to be disaster for this country and its institutions and all those dancing around in joyful anticipation of Nigel as PM are profoundly wrong.
    As much as we love our centrist Dads here, my thoughts on Reform are they will drift back as they drive away the Centre Right Grandpas and Grandmas
    How Reform plan to win and how Reform will govern are two separate questions. Neither has a clear answer and both should be issues for intense journalistic scrutiny.

    The second question is more important. Assuming we can put on one side a Reform government going Trumpian and seeking to prevent further free and fair elections (and IMO we can dismiss that) then the probability is that they will govern in such a way as to try to win a subsequent election in 4/5 years time. This imposes a very considerable limit on what they can do. They will continue to need the votes of people who rely on pensions, low inflation, NHS, housing including social housing, free education, not having a series of fiscal/debt crises, the welfare state and a reasonable supply of jobs provided by someone else. (Try asking the people of Clacton what they want in addition to fewer brown faces).

    This describes a high spend and high tax society in a social democracy. This is possible to do with fairly tightly closed borders, as is clearly Reform's policy. I suggest this (underneath all sorts of evasive rhetoric) is exactly what they will try to do.

    Whether it can be done is a question for Reform to answer, but not only Reform.
    I remain somewhat sceptical of this analysis.

    Firstly, Farage admires Trump. He still admires Trump while Trump is busy dismantling democratic norms in the US. This suggests to me that Farage would, given the opportunity, do just as much to dismantle democratic norms.

    Reform UK may well "continue to need the votes of people who rely on pensions, low inflation, NHS" etc. But that doesn't mean they won't enact policies counter to those voters' interests. The point is that they've drunk their own Kool-Aid. They believe that their policies will work. They won't, but as long they believe they'll work, they'll still introduce them. And if it looks like they aren't working, they'll just stop publishing the statistics that say that, as Trump has.

    Your analysis that satisfying their voters' expectations will require "a high spend and high tax society in a social democracy" is correct, but that doesn't mean Reform will aim for that. Plenty of radical right populists have gotten into power and enacted stupid policies counter to their voters' interests (e.g., Trump, Erdoğan, Milei... and perhaps one could include Putin too). Some radical right populists have bent to reality more (Meloni?), so is Farage more a Trump or a Meloni?
    Lol.

    Millei has done more for his people than any Argentine politician in living memory....
    The recent Buenos Aries elections suggest that much of the Argentinian electorate don't share that view.
    Parish council elections. I don't think they'll make much difference.

    CentristDadism is over, as evidenced by the failure of Sunak, the failure of Biden, the failure of repeated French govts etc etc

    Millei-esque politics will IMO end up being elected or imposed upon us here, as the burden of debt and entitlements continues to drag down our country.
    They are not parish council elections. They are the highest level of election below the national parliament. The electorate is about 50% of the full Argentine electorate. Milei's party underperformed polls. The Argentine peso notably sank after the result precisely because it was a bad result for Milei.

    The world is not divided between radical right politicians like Milei and CentristDadism. Don't be silly. Radical right parties have had success and failures. They advanced in the recent Norwegian general election, but lost the election to the centre-left. They fell back in Poland in June, losing to a centrist. The centre-left also won in South Korea that month. And so on.

    The UK economy is nothing like the Argentinian one and Milei-esque politics are not going to be needed or wanted.

    And it's Milei, one 'l'. If you're going to hero-worship the guy, learn to spell his name.
    Oh do get a sense of humour - the parish council jibe is a reference to local elections long used here and elsewhere.

    I didn't say it the world was divided between the failed Social Dadocracy and Milleism - but that I suspect the latter will likely imposed upon us if we don't vote for it first, by the IMF
    The idea that we are going to have to go to IMF is some weird sexual fantasy that some on the right have, a throwback to the 1970s, with very little basis in the modern world. It's like thinking that a new Carry On film would be a big success.
    It has *literally* been mooted by serious economists

    Just because the lanyard class know they'll be the first for the job cuts, they tend to stick their fingers in their ears about it.
    What would the IMF be providing - that’s the flaw in the IMF argument that no one answers so please tell us?
    Err, keep up at the back - a bailout when our debt becomes too onerous to service. It isn't rocket science; just economics
    In the modern world of western/rich world indebtedness I am not clear where the IMF would obtain the funds to bail out a big country.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 7,198

    isam said:

    viewcode said:

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    FPT...

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    algarkirk said:

    https://x.com/cllr_thomas/status/1967894303151206627?s=19

    Reform councillor walks out of local council meeting because they didnt acknowledge the death of a US political figure.
    Odd. Its Torfaen council, why would they?

    Indication though of what a Reform government is going to like and driven by. It is UK's Trump 2.0 and it is going to be disaster for this country and its institutions and all those dancing around in joyful anticipation of Nigel as PM are profoundly wrong.
    As much as we love our centrist Dads here, my thoughts on Reform are they will drift back as they drive away the Centre Right Grandpas and Grandmas
    How Reform plan to win and how Reform will govern are two separate questions. Neither has a clear answer and both should be issues for intense journalistic scrutiny.

    The second question is more important. Assuming we can put on one side a Reform government going Trumpian and seeking to prevent further free and fair elections (and IMO we can dismiss that) then the probability is that they will govern in such a way as to try to win a subsequent election in 4/5 years time. This imposes a very considerable limit on what they can do. They will continue to need the votes of people who rely on pensions, low inflation, NHS, housing including social housing, free education, not having a series of fiscal/debt crises, the welfare state and a reasonable supply of jobs provided by someone else. (Try asking the people of Clacton what they want in addition to fewer brown faces).

    This describes a high spend and high tax society in a social democracy. This is possible to do with fairly tightly closed borders, as is clearly Reform's policy. I suggest this (underneath all sorts of evasive rhetoric) is exactly what they will try to do.

    Whether it can be done is a question for Reform to answer, but not only Reform.
    I remain somewhat sceptical of this analysis.

    Firstly, Farage admires Trump. He still admires Trump while Trump is busy dismantling democratic norms in the US. This suggests to me that Farage would, given the opportunity, do just as much to dismantle democratic norms.

    Reform UK may well "continue to need the votes of people who rely on pensions, low inflation, NHS" etc. But that doesn't mean they won't enact policies counter to those voters' interests. The point is that they've drunk their own Kool-Aid. They believe that their policies will work. They won't, but as long they believe they'll work, they'll still introduce them. And if it looks like they aren't working, they'll just stop publishing the statistics that say that, as Trump has.

    Your analysis that satisfying their voters' expectations will require "a high spend and high tax society in a social democracy" is correct, but that doesn't mean Reform will aim for that. Plenty of radical right populists have gotten into power and enacted stupid policies counter to their voters' interests (e.g., Trump, Erdoğan, Milei... and perhaps one could include Putin too). Some radical right populists have bent to reality more (Meloni?), so is Farage more a Trump or a Meloni?
    Lol.

    Millei has done more for his people than any Argentine politician in living memory....
    The recent Buenos Aries elections suggest that much of the Argentinian electorate don't share that view.
    Parish council elections. I don't think they'll make much difference.

    CentristDadism is over, as evidenced by the failure of Sunak, the failure of Biden, the failure of repeated French govts etc etc

    Millei-esque politics will IMO end up being elected or imposed upon us here, as the burden of debt and entitlements continues to drag down our country.
    They are not parish council elections. They are the highest level of election below the national parliament. The electorate is about 50% of the full Argentine electorate. Milei's party underperformed polls. The Argentine peso notably sank after the result precisely because it was a bad result for Milei.

    The world is not divided between radical right politicians like Milei and CentristDadism. Don't be silly. Radical right parties have had success and failures. They advanced in the recent Norwegian general election, but lost the election to the centre-left. They fell back in Poland in June, losing to a centrist. The centre-left also won in South Korea that month. And so on.

    The UK economy is nothing like the Argentinian one and Milei-esque politics are not going to be needed or wanted.

    And it's Milei, one 'l'. If you're going to hero-worship the guy, learn to spell his name.
    Oh do get a sense of humour - the parish council jibe is a reference to local elections long used here and elsewhere.

    I didn't say it the world was divided between the failed Social Dadocracy and Milleism - but that I suspect the latter will likely imposed upon us if we don't vote for it first, by the IMF
    The idea that we are going to have to go to IMF is some weird sexual fantasy that some on the right have, a throwback to the 1970s, with very little basis in the modern world. It's like thinking that a new Carry On film would be a big success.
    It has *literally* been mooted by serious economists

    Just because the lanyard class know they'll be the first for the job cuts, they tend to stick their fingers in their ears about it.
    I wear a lanyard to work. Everybody who works in an office wears a lanyard to work. That's millions of people.
    Do they really? It has been 14 years since I worked in an office, so I know very little about modern office life. I certainly didn't know that
    I cannot get into the office without swiping my keycard, if I put my keycard in my wallet sometimes it stops working, so I put my keycard in a lanyard.
    I kept it in my pocket.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 25,823
    edited September 17
    isam said:

    viewcode said:

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    FPT...

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    algarkirk said:

    https://x.com/cllr_thomas/status/1967894303151206627?s=19

    Reform councillor walks out of local council meeting because they didnt acknowledge the death of a US political figure.
    Odd. Its Torfaen council, why would they?

    Indication though of what a Reform government is going to like and driven by. It is UK's Trump 2.0 and it is going to be disaster for this country and its institutions and all those dancing around in joyful anticipation of Nigel as PM are profoundly wrong.
    As much as we love our centrist Dads here, my thoughts on Reform are they will drift back as they drive away the Centre Right Grandpas and Grandmas
    How Reform plan to win and how Reform will govern are two separate questions. Neither has a clear answer and both should be issues for intense journalistic scrutiny.

    The second question is more important. Assuming we can put on one side a Reform government going Trumpian and seeking to prevent further free and fair elections (and IMO we can dismiss that) then the probability is that they will govern in such a way as to try to win a subsequent election in 4/5 years time. This imposes a very considerable limit on what they can do. They will continue to need the votes of people who rely on pensions, low inflation, NHS, housing including social housing, free education, not having a series of fiscal/debt crises, the welfare state and a reasonable supply of jobs provided by someone else. (Try asking the people of Clacton what they want in addition to fewer brown faces).

    This describes a high spend and high tax society in a social democracy. This is possible to do with fairly tightly closed borders, as is clearly Reform's policy. I suggest this (underneath all sorts of evasive rhetoric) is exactly what they will try to do.

    Whether it can be done is a question for Reform to answer, but not only Reform.
    I remain somewhat sceptical of this analysis.

    Firstly, Farage admires Trump. He still admires Trump while Trump is busy dismantling democratic norms in the US. This suggests to me that Farage would, given the opportunity, do just as much to dismantle democratic norms.

    Reform UK may well "continue to need the votes of people who rely on pensions, low inflation, NHS" etc. But that doesn't mean they won't enact policies counter to those voters' interests. The point is that they've drunk their own Kool-Aid. They believe that their policies will work. They won't, but as long they believe they'll work, they'll still introduce them. And if it looks like they aren't working, they'll just stop publishing the statistics that say that, as Trump has.

    Your analysis that satisfying their voters' expectations will require "a high spend and high tax society in a social democracy" is correct, but that doesn't mean Reform will aim for that. Plenty of radical right populists have gotten into power and enacted stupid policies counter to their voters' interests (e.g., Trump, Erdoğan, Milei... and perhaps one could include Putin too). Some radical right populists have bent to reality more (Meloni?), so is Farage more a Trump or a Meloni?
    Lol.

    Millei has done more for his people than any Argentine politician in living memory....
    The recent Buenos Aries elections suggest that much of the Argentinian electorate don't share that view.
    Parish council elections. I don't think they'll make much difference.

    CentristDadism is over, as evidenced by the failure of Sunak, the failure of Biden, the failure of repeated French govts etc etc

    Millei-esque politics will IMO end up being elected or imposed upon us here, as the burden of debt and entitlements continues to drag down our country.
    They are not parish council elections. They are the highest level of election below the national parliament. The electorate is about 50% of the full Argentine electorate. Milei's party underperformed polls. The Argentine peso notably sank after the result precisely because it was a bad result for Milei.

    The world is not divided between radical right politicians like Milei and CentristDadism. Don't be silly. Radical right parties have had success and failures. They advanced in the recent Norwegian general election, but lost the election to the centre-left. They fell back in Poland in June, losing to a centrist. The centre-left also won in South Korea that month. And so on.

    The UK economy is nothing like the Argentinian one and Milei-esque politics are not going to be needed or wanted.

    And it's Milei, one 'l'. If you're going to hero-worship the guy, learn to spell his name.
    Oh do get a sense of humour - the parish council jibe is a reference to local elections long used here and elsewhere.

    I didn't say it the world was divided between the failed Social Dadocracy and Milleism - but that I suspect the latter will likely imposed upon us if we don't vote for it first, by the IMF
    The idea that we are going to have to go to IMF is some weird sexual fantasy that some on the right have, a throwback to the 1970s, with very little basis in the modern world. It's like thinking that a new Carry On film would be a big success.
    It has *literally* been mooted by serious economists

    Just because the lanyard class know they'll be the first for the job cuts, they tend to stick their fingers in their ears about it.
    I wear a lanyard to work. Everybody who works in an office wears a lanyard to work. That's millions of people.
    Do they really? It has been 14 years since I worked in an office, so I know very little about modern office life. I certainly didn't know that
    Depends. In big or medium size offices, yes. Office jobs usually have external doors which have some kind of plate on them that you have to place a device on to gain access. In my present job I have to slap my ID badge on three: one to get into the front door, another to get thru the internal doors, and a third to get into the research area. In my previous job it was just two: the external door and the gateline into the building past the security staff. Before that it was just one (enter the building). The one before that had two or one plus a timeclock, the one before that had two. That's about the last 25 yrs.

    If you go into a local bank and ask for a mortgage, you'll see the staff do it when they go into the internal offices.

    For smaller offices (say lawyers) probably not, although it's been 20 years since I've been in a lawyer's office (my immediate thoughts were i: nice desks, and ii: can't you f*****s file things?).

    So yes. If you're employed in an office/organisation that has a number of staff big enough to need security and a HR dept, I'd say definitely.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 14,273
    algarkirk said:

    RobD said:

    I wonder why he ruled one out. He’d win, surely?

    No certainty at all. If there was he would stand down. The nearest thing to certain is that the Tories would not win. The next nearest certainty is that the contest would coalesce around two parties, of which Reform is 100% certain to be one and the LDs 75% certain to be the other because of by election tradition and because 2nd place Labour are marginally less popular than bubonic plague at the moment.

    In most seats Reform can't win if non Reform voters act intelligently.

    Sub plot: if there were a by election a loonie ultra right party (can't remember their names) would stand, taking votes off Reform. A Jezbollah candidate might take votes off Labour.

    In this election which isn't occurring IMO LDs would start at evens. Reform 6/4.
    It would be a Reform vs Con battle, LDs would finish third
  • eekeek Posts: 31,304
    Foss said:

    Dopermean said:

    RobD said:

    Mortimer said:

    More deportation flights planned for Labour's ‘one-in, one-out’ scheme took off without a single migrant on board again today.

    A scheduled Air France flight from London Heathrow this morning departed with no Channel migrants aboard. And migrants were also absent from another aircraft this afternoon which had previously been pinpointed by a French charity as a Home Office removals flight.

    This is an absolute joke
    Good on the judges for blocking these flights. Who in their right mind could support deporting them to that war-torn hellscape is beyond me.
    Quite. France is a hell hole for migrants according to the aid agencies etc.

    A country like that is a failed state. A failed state with oil.

    Are you thinking what I’m thinking, children?
    Frankly I'm horrified! And am glad the flights have been stopped, it's inexcusable.
    They should use the tunnel or ferries.
    It is a very odd decision why they must fly people back to France.
    It increases the cost to benefit ratio and so makes it easier to attack as pointless.
    They are trying to get the people away from Calais, and Paris is likely where the French want them being sent to. Both make planes the preferred choice
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 37,506
    viewcode said:

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    FPT...

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    algarkirk said:

    https://x.com/cllr_thomas/status/1967894303151206627?s=19

    Reform councillor walks out of local council meeting because they didnt acknowledge the death of a US political figure.
    Odd. Its Torfaen council, why would they?

    Indication though of what a Reform government is going to like and driven by. It is UK's Trump 2.0 and it is going to be disaster for this country and its institutions and all those dancing around in joyful anticipation of Nigel as PM are profoundly wrong.
    As much as we love our centrist Dads here, my thoughts on Reform are they will drift back as they drive away the Centre Right Grandpas and Grandmas
    How Reform plan to win and how Reform will govern are two separate questions. Neither has a clear answer and both should be issues for intense journalistic scrutiny.

    The second question is more important. Assuming we can put on one side a Reform government going Trumpian and seeking to prevent further free and fair elections (and IMO we can dismiss that) then the probability is that they will govern in such a way as to try to win a subsequent election in 4/5 years time. This imposes a very considerable limit on what they can do. They will continue to need the votes of people who rely on pensions, low inflation, NHS, housing including social housing, free education, not having a series of fiscal/debt crises, the welfare state and a reasonable supply of jobs provided by someone else. (Try asking the people of Clacton what they want in addition to fewer brown faces).

    This describes a high spend and high tax society in a social democracy. This is possible to do with fairly tightly closed borders, as is clearly Reform's policy. I suggest this (underneath all sorts of evasive rhetoric) is exactly what they will try to do.

    Whether it can be done is a question for Reform to answer, but not only Reform.
    I remain somewhat sceptical of this analysis.

    Firstly, Farage admires Trump. He still admires Trump while Trump is busy dismantling democratic norms in the US. This suggests to me that Farage would, given the opportunity, do just as much to dismantle democratic norms.

    Reform UK may well "continue to need the votes of people who rely on pensions, low inflation, NHS" etc. But that doesn't mean they won't enact policies counter to those voters' interests. The point is that they've drunk their own Kool-Aid. They believe that their policies will work. They won't, but as long they believe they'll work, they'll still introduce them. And if it looks like they aren't working, they'll just stop publishing the statistics that say that, as Trump has.

    Your analysis that satisfying their voters' expectations will require "a high spend and high tax society in a social democracy" is correct, but that doesn't mean Reform will aim for that. Plenty of radical right populists have gotten into power and enacted stupid policies counter to their voters' interests (e.g., Trump, Erdoğan, Milei... and perhaps one could include Putin too). Some radical right populists have bent to reality more (Meloni?), so is Farage more a Trump or a Meloni?
    Lol.

    Millei has done more for his people than any Argentine politician in living memory....
    The recent Buenos Aries elections suggest that much of the Argentinian electorate don't share that view.
    Parish council elections. I don't think they'll make much difference.

    CentristDadism is over, as evidenced by the failure of Sunak, the failure of Biden, the failure of repeated French govts etc etc

    Millei-esque politics will IMO end up being elected or imposed upon us here, as the burden of debt and entitlements continues to drag down our country.
    They are not parish council elections. They are the highest level of election below the national parliament. The electorate is about 50% of the full Argentine electorate. Milei's party underperformed polls. The Argentine peso notably sank after the result precisely because it was a bad result for Milei.

    The world is not divided between radical right politicians like Milei and CentristDadism. Don't be silly. Radical right parties have had success and failures. They advanced in the recent Norwegian general election, but lost the election to the centre-left. They fell back in Poland in June, losing to a centrist. The centre-left also won in South Korea that month. And so on.

    The UK economy is nothing like the Argentinian one and Milei-esque politics are not going to be needed or wanted.

    And it's Milei, one 'l'. If you're going to hero-worship the guy, learn to spell his name.
    Oh do get a sense of humour - the parish council jibe is a reference to local elections long used here and elsewhere.

    I didn't say it the world was divided between the failed Social Dadocracy and Milleism - but that I suspect the latter will likely imposed upon us if we don't vote for it first, by the IMF
    The idea that we are going to have to go to IMF is some weird sexual fantasy that some on the right have, a throwback to the 1970s, with very little basis in the modern world. It's like thinking that a new Carry On film would be a big success.
    It has *literally* been mooted by serious economists

    Just because the lanyard class know they'll be the first for the job cuts, they tend to stick their fingers in their ears about it.
    I wear a lanyard to work. Everybody who works in an office wears a lanyard to work. That's millions of people.
    Doesn't change the fact that lanyards ought to be abolished completely.

  • Two-tier Keir?
  • Andy_JS said:

    viewcode said:

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    FPT...

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    algarkirk said:

    https://x.com/cllr_thomas/status/1967894303151206627?s=19

    Reform councillor walks out of local council meeting because they didnt acknowledge the death of a US political figure.
    Odd. Its Torfaen council, why would they?

    Indication though of what a Reform government is going to like and driven by. It is UK's Trump 2.0 and it is going to be disaster for this country and its institutions and all those dancing around in joyful anticipation of Nigel as PM are profoundly wrong.
    As much as we love our centrist Dads here, my thoughts on Reform are they will drift back as they drive away the Centre Right Grandpas and Grandmas
    How Reform plan to win and how Reform will govern are two separate questions. Neither has a clear answer and both should be issues for intense journalistic scrutiny.

    The second question is more important. Assuming we can put on one side a Reform government going Trumpian and seeking to prevent further free and fair elections (and IMO we can dismiss that) then the probability is that they will govern in such a way as to try to win a subsequent election in 4/5 years time. This imposes a very considerable limit on what they can do. They will continue to need the votes of people who rely on pensions, low inflation, NHS, housing including social housing, free education, not having a series of fiscal/debt crises, the welfare state and a reasonable supply of jobs provided by someone else. (Try asking the people of Clacton what they want in addition to fewer brown faces).

    This describes a high spend and high tax society in a social democracy. This is possible to do with fairly tightly closed borders, as is clearly Reform's policy. I suggest this (underneath all sorts of evasive rhetoric) is exactly what they will try to do.

    Whether it can be done is a question for Reform to answer, but not only Reform.
    I remain somewhat sceptical of this analysis.

    Firstly, Farage admires Trump. He still admires Trump while Trump is busy dismantling democratic norms in the US. This suggests to me that Farage would, given the opportunity, do just as much to dismantle democratic norms.

    Reform UK may well "continue to need the votes of people who rely on pensions, low inflation, NHS" etc. But that doesn't mean they won't enact policies counter to those voters' interests. The point is that they've drunk their own Kool-Aid. They believe that their policies will work. They won't, but as long they believe they'll work, they'll still introduce them. And if it looks like they aren't working, they'll just stop publishing the statistics that say that, as Trump has.

    Your analysis that satisfying their voters' expectations will require "a high spend and high tax society in a social democracy" is correct, but that doesn't mean Reform will aim for that. Plenty of radical right populists have gotten into power and enacted stupid policies counter to their voters' interests (e.g., Trump, Erdoğan, Milei... and perhaps one could include Putin too). Some radical right populists have bent to reality more (Meloni?), so is Farage more a Trump or a Meloni?
    Lol.

    Millei has done more for his people than any Argentine politician in living memory....
    The recent Buenos Aries elections suggest that much of the Argentinian electorate don't share that view.
    Parish council elections. I don't think they'll make much difference.

    CentristDadism is over, as evidenced by the failure of Sunak, the failure of Biden, the failure of repeated French govts etc etc

    Millei-esque politics will IMO end up being elected or imposed upon us here, as the burden of debt and entitlements continues to drag down our country.
    They are not parish council elections. They are the highest level of election below the national parliament. The electorate is about 50% of the full Argentine electorate. Milei's party underperformed polls. The Argentine peso notably sank after the result precisely because it was a bad result for Milei.

    The world is not divided between radical right politicians like Milei and CentristDadism. Don't be silly. Radical right parties have had success and failures. They advanced in the recent Norwegian general election, but lost the election to the centre-left. They fell back in Poland in June, losing to a centrist. The centre-left also won in South Korea that month. And so on.

    The UK economy is nothing like the Argentinian one and Milei-esque politics are not going to be needed or wanted.

    And it's Milei, one 'l'. If you're going to hero-worship the guy, learn to spell his name.
    Oh do get a sense of humour - the parish council jibe is a reference to local elections long used here and elsewhere.

    I didn't say it the world was divided between the failed Social Dadocracy and Milleism - but that I suspect the latter will likely imposed upon us if we don't vote for it first, by the IMF
    The idea that we are going to have to go to IMF is some weird sexual fantasy that some on the right have, a throwback to the 1970s, with very little basis in the modern world. It's like thinking that a new Carry On film would be a big success.
    It has *literally* been mooted by serious economists

    Just because the lanyard class know they'll be the first for the job cuts, they tend to stick their fingers in their ears about it.
    I wear a lanyard to work. Everybody who works in an office wears a lanyard to work. That's millions of people.
    Doesn't change the fact that lanyards ought to be abolished completely.
    Your nasty authoritarian streak is showing again.
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 1,574


    Two-tier Keir?

    It's going to be a tough week, the announcement that they'd canned the UK exception to the steel and alu tariffs just before they took off was presumably the prelude to another attempted shakedown of the UK.
  • viewcode said:

    isam said:

    viewcode said:

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    FPT...

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    algarkirk said:

    https://x.com/cllr_thomas/status/1967894303151206627?s=19

    Reform councillor walks out of local council meeting because they didnt acknowledge the death of a US political figure.
    Odd. Its Torfaen council, why would they?

    Indication though of what a Reform government is going to like and driven by. It is UK's Trump 2.0 and it is going to be disaster for this country and its institutions and all those dancing around in joyful anticipation of Nigel as PM are profoundly wrong.
    As much as we love our centrist Dads here, my thoughts on Reform are they will drift back as they drive away the Centre Right Grandpas and Grandmas
    How Reform plan to win and how Reform will govern are two separate questions. Neither has a clear answer and both should be issues for intense journalistic scrutiny.

    The second question is more important. Assuming we can put on one side a Reform government going Trumpian and seeking to prevent further free and fair elections (and IMO we can dismiss that) then the probability is that they will govern in such a way as to try to win a subsequent election in 4/5 years time. This imposes a very considerable limit on what they can do. They will continue to need the votes of people who rely on pensions, low inflation, NHS, housing including social housing, free education, not having a series of fiscal/debt crises, the welfare state and a reasonable supply of jobs provided by someone else. (Try asking the people of Clacton what they want in addition to fewer brown faces).

    This describes a high spend and high tax society in a social democracy. This is possible to do with fairly tightly closed borders, as is clearly Reform's policy. I suggest this (underneath all sorts of evasive rhetoric) is exactly what they will try to do.

    Whether it can be done is a question for Reform to answer, but not only Reform.
    I remain somewhat sceptical of this analysis.

    Firstly, Farage admires Trump. He still admires Trump while Trump is busy dismantling democratic norms in the US. This suggests to me that Farage would, given the opportunity, do just as much to dismantle democratic norms.

    Reform UK may well "continue to need the votes of people who rely on pensions, low inflation, NHS" etc. But that doesn't mean they won't enact policies counter to those voters' interests. The point is that they've drunk their own Kool-Aid. They believe that their policies will work. They won't, but as long they believe they'll work, they'll still introduce them. And if it looks like they aren't working, they'll just stop publishing the statistics that say that, as Trump has.

    Your analysis that satisfying their voters' expectations will require "a high spend and high tax society in a social democracy" is correct, but that doesn't mean Reform will aim for that. Plenty of radical right populists have gotten into power and enacted stupid policies counter to their voters' interests (e.g., Trump, Erdoğan, Milei... and perhaps one could include Putin too). Some radical right populists have bent to reality more (Meloni?), so is Farage more a Trump or a Meloni?
    Lol.

    Millei has done more for his people than any Argentine politician in living memory....
    The recent Buenos Aries elections suggest that much of the Argentinian electorate don't share that view.
    Parish council elections. I don't think they'll make much difference.

    CentristDadism is over, as evidenced by the failure of Sunak, the failure of Biden, the failure of repeated French govts etc etc

    Millei-esque politics will IMO end up being elected or imposed upon us here, as the burden of debt and entitlements continues to drag down our country.
    They are not parish council elections. They are the highest level of election below the national parliament. The electorate is about 50% of the full Argentine electorate. Milei's party underperformed polls. The Argentine peso notably sank after the result precisely because it was a bad result for Milei.

    The world is not divided between radical right politicians like Milei and CentristDadism. Don't be silly. Radical right parties have had success and failures. They advanced in the recent Norwegian general election, but lost the election to the centre-left. They fell back in Poland in June, losing to a centrist. The centre-left also won in South Korea that month. And so on.

    The UK economy is nothing like the Argentinian one and Milei-esque politics are not going to be needed or wanted.

    And it's Milei, one 'l'. If you're going to hero-worship the guy, learn to spell his name.
    Oh do get a sense of humour - the parish council jibe is a reference to local elections long used here and elsewhere.

    I didn't say it the world was divided between the failed Social Dadocracy and Milleism - but that I suspect the latter will likely imposed upon us if we don't vote for it first, by the IMF
    The idea that we are going to have to go to IMF is some weird sexual fantasy that some on the right have, a throwback to the 1970s, with very little basis in the modern world. It's like thinking that a new Carry On film would be a big success.
    It has *literally* been mooted by serious economists

    Just because the lanyard class know they'll be the first for the job cuts, they tend to stick their fingers in their ears about it.
    I wear a lanyard to work. Everybody who works in an office wears a lanyard to work. That's millions of people.
    Do they really? It has been 14 years since I worked in an office, so I know very little about modern office life. I certainly didn't know that
    Depends. In big or medium size offices, yes. Office jobs usually have external doors which have some kind of plate on them that you have to place a device on to gain access. In my present job I have to slap my ID badge on three: one to get into the front door, another to get thru the internal doors, and a third to get into the research area. In my previous job it was just two: the external door and the gateline into the building past the security staff. Before that it was just one (enter the building). The one before that had two or one plus a timeclock, the one before that had two. That's about the last 25 yrs.

    If you go into a local bank and ask for a mortgage, you'll see the staff do it when they go into the internal offices.

    For smaller offices (say lawyers) probably not, although it's been 20 years since I've been in a lawyer's office (my immediate thoughts were i: nice desks, and ii: can't you f*****s file things?).

    So yes. If you're employed in an office/organisation that has a number of staff big enough to need security and a HR dept, I'd say definitely.
    A lot of sixth formers round here wear lanyards too, although I suppose that might be a work experience thing.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,638
    edited September 17
    eek said:

    Foss said:

    Dopermean said:

    RobD said:

    Mortimer said:

    More deportation flights planned for Labour's ‘one-in, one-out’ scheme took off without a single migrant on board again today.

    A scheduled Air France flight from London Heathrow this morning departed with no Channel migrants aboard. And migrants were also absent from another aircraft this afternoon which had previously been pinpointed by a French charity as a Home Office removals flight.

    This is an absolute joke
    Good on the judges for blocking these flights. Who in their right mind could support deporting them to that war-torn hellscape is beyond me.
    Quite. France is a hell hole for migrants according to the aid agencies etc.

    A country like that is a failed state. A failed state with oil.

    Are you thinking what I’m thinking, children?
    Frankly I'm horrified! And am glad the flights have been stopped, it's inexcusable.
    They should use the tunnel or ferries.
    It is a very odd decision why they must fly people back to France.
    It increases the cost to benefit ratio and so makes it easier to attack as pointless.
    They are trying to get the people away from Calais, and Paris is likely where the French want them being sent to. Both make planes the preferred choice
    I am not sure commercial flights from Heathrow to Paris are easier than using Eurostar, are they?

    If you were serious, couldn't you also just have a dedicated coach on the back of the Eurostar for those being deported, so you don't even need to worry about how to deal possible issues around public safety (or public being twats and causing a scene to stop the flight, as they have in the past).
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 25,823
    Andy_JS said:

    viewcode said:

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    FPT...

    Mortimer said:

    Mortimer said:

    algarkirk said:

    https://x.com/cllr_thomas/status/1967894303151206627?s=19

    Reform councillor walks out of local council meeting because they didnt acknowledge the death of a US political figure.
    Odd. Its Torfaen council, why would they?

    Indication though of what a Reform government is going to like and driven by. It is UK's Trump 2.0 and it is going to be disaster for this country and its institutions and all those dancing around in joyful anticipation of Nigel as PM are profoundly wrong.
    As much as we love our centrist Dads here, my thoughts on Reform are they will drift back as they drive away the Centre Right Grandpas and Grandmas
    How Reform plan to win and how Reform will govern are two separate questions. Neither has a clear answer and both should be issues for intense journalistic scrutiny.

    The second question is more important. Assuming we can put on one side a Reform government going Trumpian and seeking to prevent further free and fair elections (and IMO we can dismiss that) then the probability is that they will govern in such a way as to try to win a subsequent election in 4/5 years time. This imposes a very considerable limit on what they can do. They will continue to need the votes of people who rely on pensions, low inflation, NHS, housing including social housing, free education, not having a series of fiscal/debt crises, the welfare state and a reasonable supply of jobs provided by someone else. (Try asking the people of Clacton what they want in addition to fewer brown faces).

    This describes a high spend and high tax society in a social democracy. This is possible to do with fairly tightly closed borders, as is clearly Reform's policy. I suggest this (underneath all sorts of evasive rhetoric) is exactly what they will try to do.

    Whether it can be done is a question for Reform to answer, but not only Reform.
    I remain somewhat sceptical of this analysis.

    Firstly, Farage admires Trump. He still admires Trump while Trump is busy dismantling democratic norms in the US. This suggests to me that Farage would, given the opportunity, do just as much to dismantle democratic norms.

    Reform UK may well "continue to need the votes of people who rely on pensions, low inflation, NHS" etc. But that doesn't mean they won't enact policies counter to those voters' interests. The point is that they've drunk their own Kool-Aid. They believe that their policies will work. They won't, but as long they believe they'll work, they'll still introduce them. And if it looks like they aren't working, they'll just stop publishing the statistics that say that, as Trump has.

    Your analysis that satisfying their voters' expectations will require "a high spend and high tax society in a social democracy" is correct, but that doesn't mean Reform will aim for that. Plenty of radical right populists have gotten into power and enacted stupid policies counter to their voters' interests (e.g., Trump, Erdoğan, Milei... and perhaps one could include Putin too). Some radical right populists have bent to reality more (Meloni?), so is Farage more a Trump or a Meloni?
    Lol.

    Millei has done more for his people than any Argentine politician in living memory....
    The recent Buenos Aries elections suggest that much of the Argentinian electorate don't share that view.
    Parish council elections. I don't think they'll make much difference.

    CentristDadism is over, as evidenced by the failure of Sunak, the failure of Biden, the failure of repeated French govts etc etc

    Millei-esque politics will IMO end up being elected or imposed upon us here, as the burden of debt and entitlements continues to drag down our country.
    They are not parish council elections. They are the highest level of election below the national parliament. The electorate is about 50% of the full Argentine electorate. Milei's party underperformed polls. The Argentine peso notably sank after the result precisely because it was a bad result for Milei.

    The world is not divided between radical right politicians like Milei and CentristDadism. Don't be silly. Radical right parties have had success and failures. They advanced in the recent Norwegian general election, but lost the election to the centre-left. They fell back in Poland in June, losing to a centrist. The centre-left also won in South Korea that month. And so on.

    The UK economy is nothing like the Argentinian one and Milei-esque politics are not going to be needed or wanted.

    And it's Milei, one 'l'. If you're going to hero-worship the guy, learn to spell his name.
    Oh do get a sense of humour - the parish council jibe is a reference to local elections long used here and elsewhere.

    I didn't say it the world was divided between the failed Social Dadocracy and Milleism - but that I suspect the latter will likely imposed upon us if we don't vote for it first, by the IMF
    The idea that we are going to have to go to IMF is some weird sexual fantasy that some on the right have, a throwback to the 1970s, with very little basis in the modern world. It's like thinking that a new Carry On film would be a big success.
    It has *literally* been mooted by serious economists

    Just because the lanyard class know they'll be the first for the job cuts, they tend to stick their fingers in their ears about it.
    I wear a lanyard to work. Everybody who works in an office wears a lanyard to work. That's millions of people.
    Doesn't change the fact that lanyards ought to be abolished completely.
    How do I get into work? Wave? Medium of dance?
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