Is Andy Burnham about to become the favourite to succeed Starmer? – politicalbetting.com
Is Andy Burnham about to become the favourite to succeed Starmer? – politicalbetting.com
I’d be cautious about reading too much into this market as firstly it is a low liquidity market and secondly the only way I see Burnham succeeding Starmer is after the next general election and that is potentially four years away.
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https://news.sky.com/story/there-is-a-witch-hunt-vibe-in-labour-on-how-and-who-approved-peter-mandelsons-appointment-13429218
As ever (hat tip to @Cyclfree) the damage will be about who knew what, when and who has lied about knowing.
What's the odds of that happening on a time horizon that makes him a runner for next Labour leader?
FWIW, I think Burnham would be an improvement over SKS. He's the man to see to it that Labour does not get completely destroyed. But his path to the Leadership is an extremely narrow one. 12% seems about right.
Also wasn’t there stories a few weeks back of such a seat becoming available due to an MP taking a new job
They will probably be looking diligently for a fall guy they can sacrifice.
He was unofficially unbriefed as to the non-contents of the vetting report. Which he never officially read. Due to the Second Codicil to the Statute of Gnomi Subligaculi (Henry the Fourth, 1287) this means that he both knew but didn’t know, officially, but unofficially about the situation.
This quantum state only collapsed to knowing after Mandelson resigned.
That will £12,435.43, plus VAT, plus expenses, plus extra expenses, plus novel expenses, plus extraordinary expenses.
Prevalence of guns is clearly the big issue. But a culture which threw up fewer nutters with vuolent tendencies and fewer for whom objective truth was not necessarily massively important would also be a big help.
His judgement is shite. This is not news. Everyone knew this when they chose him. But he is PM and will not want to stand down on any terms other than his own.
1) a member of the Labour Party
2) likes being a member of the Labour Party
3) as opposed to Shining Path or Reform
4) attached to reality.
The problem is that his job is fairly oppositional - he can promise things, but not deliver due to Big Bad Westminster. So he has avoided telling unpleasant truths - so is popular across the Labour base.
It is worth remembering he was an utter failure at national politics. So much so that he gave up trying to be an MP and ran for mayor instead.
Haven’t they suffered enough ?
Chancellor appoints infrastructure and planning adviser to clear path for new investments
Leading lawyer, Catherine Howard, appointed to advise Chancellor on the next phase of planning and infrastructure reforms as she vows to ‘do what it takes to get Britain building’
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/chancellor-appoints-infrastructure-and-planning-adviser-to-clear-path-for-new-investments
So far they have tried claiming that it was all down to MI5. Not the bunch I would have started the scapegoating with…
There are so many examples but let’s focus on Lord Yum Yum. He didn’t have to do any of this. He didn’t have to appoint him. He didn’t have to rush out and express confidence in him as the scandal kicked off. He didn’t have to do that AGAIN in the commons even as everyone else in the universe knew Mandy was toast
All unforced. All howlingly stupid. He is so bad at politics people semi-seriously wonder if he is a spy paid by China
He is the worst “politician” we’ve seen in number 10 in my lifetime. He has no political sense. Zero
He’s a dull witted public sector lawyer and that’s where he should have stayed
https://x.com/ZaidJilani/status/1966516780207054909
Switzerland does not have more guns per head of population that the US. Wikipedia and World Population Review both show many more guns in the US than in Switzerland. (The US has more than one gun per person. Switzerland is one gun per four people - albeit if you do it per citizen, then the numbers are closer... but still Switzerland is well behind.)
Secondly, Switzerland has lots of restrictions on ammunition. So your average Swiss man of conscription age will have his army rifle at home, but won't have the bullets for it. And that's been the case since 2007.
Charles II appointed Henry Morgan to wipe out pirates in the Caribbean. Chas II knew his man - Henry hung everyone in his address book. And died of old age, rich.
But whether that means he'll get fed up of being a politician even at PM level is another matter.
IIRC they can buy ammunition for the military weapons at the range.
For civilian, the USA is about 4x higher than Switzerland.
IWiki, which is somewhat old stats.)
After the horror of starmer he would feel like a refreshing change and would probably save Labour from total destruction if not defeat
However his path is very difficult. One thing, however, that could assist him is a scandal that topples Skyr Toolmakersson. Is that so impossible?
In just his first year starmer has endured free-lingerie-gate and now he’s befouled by Lord Yum Yum (which by itself could undo him, especially if Mandelson is seeking revenge)
That’s burnham’s route. Starmer is brought down by a scandal
In support of that argument, see the very wide differences in homicide rates among US states: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_by_intentional_homicide_rate
More data, here: https://usafacts.org/articles/which-states-have-the-highest-murder-rates/
I also seem to recall gun ownership used to be very high in Canada - I don't think this is the case any more.
Time to log off and do real world weekend stuff.
Have a good one, all.
But you are slightly misconstruing me. There have been recent PMs who have been worse than starmer in different ways
Boris was more morally vacuous. Truss was crazier. TMay was possibly even more tin eared
My argument is that Starmer is the worst “politician”. As in: lacking the skills of politics
I’d also argue he’s the worst PM but I accept my weird visceral loathing of him might be clouding my judgment
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2025/9/12/2343167/-Charlie-Kirk-Assassin-From-Republican-Family-Stewed-in-Gun-Culture?pm_campaign=front_page&pm_source=trending&pm_medium=web
Young kids parading around with semi automatic guns .
An Irish Grandma, 47 years in the USA on a Green Card and married to a US citizen, detained when returning from a visit to Ireland for a funeral with husband, is now facing deportation for a "crime of moral turpitude", because she bounced a $25 cheque in 2015 - which she subsequently made good. From the Indy:
An Irish grandmother of five, who is married to an American citizen and who has lived in the U.S. on a green card for 47 years, is facing deportation.
Donna Hughes-Brown, 58, was arrested by ICE over a bad check for $25 she passed a decade ago, according to her husband. Born in England the grandmother holds Irish citizenship and first came to the U.S. with her parents and brother aged 11.
She visited the Republic of Ireland earlier this summer for a family funeral, only to be arrested when she returned to Chicago O’Hare International Airport on July 29.
She has since been detained for more than 30 days and held at a facility in Campbell County, Kentucky, with the U.S. government threatening to deport her over the check, which it argues was a “crime of moral turpitude,” despite her family saying she paid the money back long ago.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/ice-deportation-donna-hughes-brown-grandmother-b2824030.html
A short vid analysing this, and suggesting where it is going - with an aim of instilling fear. Phil Moorehouse, and I mainly agree with the analysis this time:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ArXFp-CnswU
The assumption among at least some of those who are peripherally mayor-adjacent is that he'll give it a go, mind, though my reading is that this is because this would be in character for him, rather than any specific knowledge of a plan.
We now have a perfectly functional government. I struggle to see that such a thing is assured in the future.
I suspect that you'd like to eventually launch a kite that sails.
The big change they've done was to abolish winter fuel allowance, then give it straight back the following winter.
Couldn't get even mild reforms they knew were needed to welfare.
Planning reforms have been watered down to nothing.
What exactly have they done that's functional?
The only achievement of note is a private memvers bill to liberalise dying.
"...Along with the rifle being recovered in the woods near the scene, engraved shell casings were found.
* In the fired casing, the inscription read, “notices buldges OWO what’s this?”
* An inscription on the first unfired casing read, “Hey Fascists! Catch!”
* On the second unfired casing, the inscription read, “O bella ciao, bella ciao, bella ciao ciao ciao.”
* On the third unfired casing, the inscription read, “If you read this, you are gay lmao.”..."
https://www.clickondetroit.com/news/local/2025/09/12/hey-fascists-what-accused-charlie-kirk-killer-wrote-on-shell-casings/
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2025/09/12/charlie-kirk-assassins-bullets-anti-fascist-slogans-netflix/
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/c206zm81z4gt
The Blairites argued that principles were pointless if you couldn't get elected. But the point of being elected is to do something with political power. Starmer is showing us the pointlessness of winning an election as the end in itself.
Starmer won a stonking majority and what difference to the country is he going to make with it?
The idea of becoming leader whilst not exactly enthusing the Party a second time seems....remote.
Albeit, better than the 6% who think Rayner still has a chance. Pfft!
Not a title you want to hold.
The US is sending them to unsafe and third countries, illegally, in violation of Court Orders, and with bribes to the Governments. For the first 250 sent to the CECOT 'prison' in El-Salvador I think Trump paid $5m. It's a Dictatorship so the money may have gone to the Dictator.
if you don't care about the Rule of Law, a lot can be achieved.
So far no short term business travellers seem to have been caught up. (I think).
Blaming Starmer for Mandelson is ridiculous. He was faced by an American President who was both malevolent and crooked but someone he had to do business with. The person he chose fitted the bill.
Starmer isn't a fool and he's learning on the job. And for now he's much the best option. He's learnt his lesson and he'll improve and toughen up.
He needs to stop behaving like Trumps poodle and show he's got the bottle to organise some meaningful international effort against Israel. Then the party will come to heel
The Irish grandma in this example will probably have an Irish passport. Deporting her is trivial.
Britain could easily deport as many people as you like if the authorities picked on people who mostly played by the rules (except for one time they messed up).
Starmer show no signs of learning the simplest lesson of all. He is supposed to be in charge.
Her husband, Jim Brown, a US citizen and military veteran, told reporters his wife was not a criminal and that he “100%” regretted voting for Donald Trump as president.
He said she had been detained on a misdemeanour relating to a $25 cheque she signed a decade ago and for which she made restitution and received probation.
She was detained under legislation amended on 4 July as part of Trump’s sweeping “one big beautiful bill” act. The couple visited Ireland that month for a funeral. When they landed at Chicago’s O’Hare airport on 29 July a police officer was waiting for her on the ramp.
Five days later she was transferred to an Immigration and Customs Enforcement (Ice) facility in Kentucky, where she told her husband conditions were “deplorable”. He lost contact with her this week when she was moved to an isolation cell, he told the Irish Times.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/sep/10/irish-woman-with-green-card-faces-us-deportation-over-25-bad-cheque
A similar case is also mentioned:
The case has parallels with other cases, including that of Cliona Ward, a green card holder who was detained in April at San Francisco airport after a visit to Ireland because of offences dating back almost 20 years. She was released in May.
The problem they have, I think, is that any of Trump's masked goons could just repeat the detention at random.
Have they required you to pay the extra Trump fees?
(Seriously, I honestly can't tell where they will be by the end of the year; it all just seems random.)
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cpd9x78qvv5o
I expect Lammy, McSweeney and Starmer to come under intense scrutiny and they need to hope they have the answers, otherwise one or all of them could be a much more difficultt position than they are now
Certainly, the labour backbenchers are furious with several openly and publicly critising Starmer
Labour is not a happy party, and Starmer's critics are as much behind him as in front
There will be those who try to defend him, but the interview with Cooper just now was simply embarrassing as she struggled to justify Mandelson's appointment and did everything she could to deflect the conversation away from what is now a crisis in labour of immense proportions
Nobody can possibly know where this ends but someone is going to have to take the can
https://x.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1966523934620135721
I know someone who is hoping to go there for an extended visit (don't know how long). They're braver than I am.
Update: Civil War cancelled due to shooter being demographically uncooperative
It's harder with people who threw away their documents and cross on foot, but the US strategy is simply to lock them up in really nasty cells until they remember that actually they're from Hondurus and then ship them back.
It is much easier for the US, because there are relatively few countries that people come from, and the US will be their biggest trading partner, and none of these countries are at war or have contentious relationships with the US.