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I hope Nigel Farage bets – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,670
edited September 9 in General
I hope Nigel Farage bets – politicalbetting.com

Nigel Farage has again predicted that there will be a General Election in 2027 #RUK25We're 10/1 on a 2027 GE, if anyone wants a bet2025 – 50/12026 – 20/12027 – 10/12028 – 6/42029 or later – 4/5https://t.co/9nMbwGUTsY https://t.co/gU7Wc3vzGx

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 75,212
    That prediction will be shorn of its glory just as surely as Sion was in 2007.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 47,262
    He's made the prediction as a political move imo. Keep the interest and enthusiasm up.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 75,212
    kinabalu said:

    He's made the prediction as a political move imo. Keep the interest and enthusiasm up.

    And the money rolling in?
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 1,527
    Guardian's list of runners in deputy leader race is a bit white and middle class. I can't see the members being happy, understandably as it suggests McSweeney has total control.
  • TazTaz Posts: 20,927
    Dopermean said:

    Guardian's list of runners in deputy leader race is a bit white and middle class. I can't see the members being happy, understandably as it suggests McSweeney has total control.

    Ribeiro-Addy is not white.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,950
    @hzeffman

    NEW: Bridget Phillipson is running for deputy leader
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,844
    Re. the discussion in the last thread, the Probate Officer will be employed by HM Courts and Tribunal Service i.e. the most well known under-funded part of public life in the last 20 years. It isn’t the “civil service” as is commonly understood.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 21,006
    Scott_xP said:

    @hzeffman

    NEW: Bridget Phillipson is running for deputy leader

    She could always black up.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,925
    ydoethur said:

    That prediction will be shorn of its glory just as surely as Sion was in 2007.

    Rejoice, O people of Sion!
    ...Look, your king is coming to you. He is righteous and victorious, yet he is humble, riding on a donkey..
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,925
    "I would be laying 2027 like there’s no tomorrow"

    If there wasn't a tomorrow, why would there be a 2027 to lay ?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 75,212
    edited September 9
    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    That prediction will be shorn of its glory just as surely as Sion was in 2007.

    Rejoice, O people of Sion!
    ...Look, your king is coming to you. He is righteous and victorious, yet he is humble, riding on a donkey..
    An ass riding on a donkey? Well, I suppose they have to reproduce somehow.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 32,551
    As someone points out on that Twitter link, the date of 2027 is interesting because it's before the end of the Trump era. Perhaps Farage and Trump are hoping to be pals in office.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,950
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    As someone points out on that Twitter link, the date of 2027 is interesting because it's before the end of the Trump era. Perhaps Farage and Trump are hoping to be pals in office.

    There is a non-zero chance the Trump era ends before 2027

    There is an even greater chance that if Trump is still in office, being his pal will be toxic for a majority of voters
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 46,892
    To be fair to Farage, he's an expert on rifts. Given how he falls out with everyone he works with...
  • DopermeanDopermean Posts: 1,527
    Taz said:

    Dopermean said:

    Guardian's list of runners in deputy leader race is a bit white and middle class. I can't see the members being happy, understandably as it suggests McSweeney has total control.

    Ribeiro-Addy is not white.
    And not in Guardian list
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 32,656
    Revealed: Peter Mandelson’s birthday message and photos for ‘best pal’ Epstein
    Epstein’s birthday book released in full, unveiling pictures and well wishes from a string of high-profile individuals
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/us/news/2025/09/09/jeffrey-epstein-birthday-book-peter-mandelson-message/ (£££)

    Is there a market on next ambassador? It is embarrassing for Lord Mandelson but it strengthens the case that many of Epstein's pals were there for free holidays and hobnobbing with the rich and famous rather than especially young women.

    Note that President Trump is said to be suing over his apparent inclusion in the ‘birthday book’.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 19,707
    Farage spouts nonsense that is utterly implausible but which his audience wants to believe.

    Shocked, I tell you. Shocked.

    (The contortions that the British right are going through to deny electoral reality would be poignant if they weren't so funny.)

  • TimSTimS Posts: 16,031
    Scott_xP said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    As someone points out on that Twitter link, the date of 2027 is interesting because it's before the end of the Trump era. Perhaps Farage and Trump are hoping to be pals in office.

    There is a non-zero chance the Trump era ends before 2027

    There is an even greater chance that if Trump is still in office, being his pal will be toxic for a majority of voters
    There is a somewhat greater chance the Trump era continues beyond 2028.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,950
    Senile old man says what?

    https://bsky.app/profile/atrupar.com/post/3lydguj27gk2v

    https://bsky.app/profile/thetnholler.bsky.social/post/3lydo4sym222f
  • scampi25scampi25 Posts: 274
    MattW said:

    TSE dethreaded me again. I must have said something about Yorkshire.

    Andy_JS said:

    rottenborough said:

    We have been warned:
    Zia Yusuf @ZiaYusufUK
    ·
    7h
    Reform will transform the civil service from a bloated, failed organisation hostile to the interests of the British people into a lean, performant machine that makes our country proud. 🇬🇧

    On the face of it, this doesn't sound like anything to be worried about. What do you see as problematic with it?
    This is obvious by now, surely? It's about 97% likely to be pure BS. Reform are an incompetent policy-free slogan machine, hoping that fools will fall for it. I doubt if they even know what they mean themselves by "Civil Service", never mind what it actually means.

    We have this exact cycle from Zia himself in Kent County Council. Lots of "we will save X Y and Z". But LTNs to be cut did not exist. Woke waste to be cut did not exist. "DEI jobs" hardly existed.

    It was all public information, but the numpties of Reform, including Zia himself, did not do any homework. So then he rifled through last year's local papers and social media, to find some identified savings he could claim to have "identified". And made a serious of fake claims about it. Cue a public faceplant.

    So what happens next? Well, in Derbyshire they cut half the adult education centres. They had time for a proper process, but waited until the last minute and tried to do an emergency decision.

    But RefUK are such a fuckwit collective that they had to admit their action was unlawful.

    Vote for a clown show, and you get a circus. I don't want a circus in my Council or Government.
    Haha - you think the last or the current government are competent?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,881
    Good morning, everyone.

    F1: episode 35 looks back at the Italian Grand Prix, which had an exciting start, a controversial end, and not much in between. Bad luck for Alonso and Hulkenberg, surprisingly dominant win for Verstappen.

    Podbean: https://undercutters.podbean.com/e/f1-2025-italian-grand-prix-review/

    Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/f1-2025-italian-grand-prix-review/id1786574257?i=1000725663878

    Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/episode/31tdq2OPuBMz0MIjMXdkDE

    Amazon: https://music.amazon.com/podcasts/bcfe213b-55fb-408a-a823-dc6693ee9f78/episodes/504608d2-7f3b-420f-a5ba-ef6403260bb4/undercutters---f1-podcast-f1-2025-italian-grand-prix-review

    Transcript: https://morrisf1.blogspot.com/2025/09/f1-2025-italian-grand-prix-review.html
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,950
    TimS said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    As someone points out on that Twitter link, the date of 2027 is interesting because it's before the end of the Trump era. Perhaps Farage and Trump are hoping to be pals in office.

    There is a non-zero chance the Trump era ends before 2027

    There is an even greater chance that if Trump is still in office, being his pal will be toxic for a majority of voters
    There is a somewhat greater chance the Trump era continues beyond 2028.
    I'd like to see the actuarial table for that
  • TazTaz Posts: 20,927
    Dopermean said:

    Taz said:

    Dopermean said:

    Guardian's list of runners in deputy leader race is a bit white and middle class. I can't see the members being happy, understandably as it suggests McSweeney has total control.

    Ribeiro-Addy is not white.
    And not in Guardian list
    That’s fabulous. They’re on the ball.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,765
    Dopermean said:

    Taz said:

    Dopermean said:

    Guardian's list of runners in deputy leader race is a bit white and middle class. I can't see the members being happy, understandably as it suggests McSweeney has total control.

    Ribeiro-Addy is not white.
    And not in Guardian list
    Sarah Owen is on the list and is the one mixed race candidate listed.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,925
    Scott_xP said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    As someone points out on that Twitter link, the date of 2027 is interesting because it's before the end of the Trump era. Perhaps Farage and Trump are hoping to be pals in office.

    There is a non-zero chance the Trump era ends before 2027

    There is an even greater chance that if Trump is still in office, being his pal will be toxic for a majority of voters
    Perhaps Lucky is thinking about a third term Trump ?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 29,670
    Taz said:

    Dopermean said:

    Guardian's list of runners in deputy leader race is a bit white and middle class. I can't see the members being happy, understandably as it suggests McSweeney has total control.

    Ribeiro-Addy is not white.
    And the Fab Four (Starmer, Lammy, Mahmood, Reeves) are already half and half.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 29,670
    scampi25 said:

    MattW said:

    TSE dethreaded me again. I must have said something about Yorkshire.

    Andy_JS said:

    rottenborough said:

    We have been warned:
    Zia Yusuf @ZiaYusufUK
    ·
    7h
    Reform will transform the civil service from a bloated, failed organisation hostile to the interests of the British people into a lean, performant machine that makes our country proud. 🇬🇧

    On the face of it, this doesn't sound like anything to be worried about. What do you see as problematic with it?
    This is obvious by now, surely? It's about 97% likely to be pure BS. Reform are an incompetent policy-free slogan machine, hoping that fools will fall for it. I doubt if they even know what they mean themselves by "Civil Service", never mind what it actually means.

    We have this exact cycle from Zia himself in Kent County Council. Lots of "we will save X Y and Z". But LTNs to be cut did not exist. Woke waste to be cut did not exist. "DEI jobs" hardly existed.

    It was all public information, but the numpties of Reform, including Zia himself, did not do any homework. So then he rifled through last year's local papers and social media, to find some identified savings he could claim to have "identified". And made a serious of fake claims about it. Cue a public faceplant.

    So what happens next? Well, in Derbyshire they cut half the adult education centres. They had time for a proper process, but waited until the last minute and tried to do an emergency decision.

    But RefUK are such a fuckwit collective that they had to admit their action was unlawful.

    Vote for a clown show, and you get a circus. I don't want a circus in my Council or Government.
    Haha - you think the last or the current government are competent?
    The last one - incompetent. The current one - too early to tell.

    You thing a Farage Farrago would be less incompetent?

    How did that work out in County Councils?
  • TazTaz Posts: 20,927
    MattW said:

    scampi25 said:

    MattW said:

    TSE dethreaded me again. I must have said something about Yorkshire.

    Andy_JS said:

    rottenborough said:

    We have been warned:
    Zia Yusuf @ZiaYusufUK
    ·
    7h
    Reform will transform the civil service from a bloated, failed organisation hostile to the interests of the British people into a lean, performant machine that makes our country proud. 🇬🇧

    On the face of it, this doesn't sound like anything to be worried about. What do you see as problematic with it?
    This is obvious by now, surely? It's about 97% likely to be pure BS. Reform are an incompetent policy-free slogan machine, hoping that fools will fall for it. I doubt if they even know what they mean themselves by "Civil Service", never mind what it actually means.

    We have this exact cycle from Zia himself in Kent County Council. Lots of "we will save X Y and Z". But LTNs to be cut did not exist. Woke waste to be cut did not exist. "DEI jobs" hardly existed.

    It was all public information, but the numpties of Reform, including Zia himself, did not do any homework. So then he rifled through last year's local papers and social media, to find some identified savings he could claim to have "identified". And made a serious of fake claims about it. Cue a public faceplant.

    So what happens next? Well, in Derbyshire they cut half the adult education centres. They had time for a proper process, but waited until the last minute and tried to do an emergency decision.

    But RefUK are such a fuckwit collective that they had to admit their action was unlawful.

    Vote for a clown show, and you get a circus. I don't want a circus in my Council or Government.
    Haha - you think the last or the current government are competent?
    The last one - incompetent. The current one - too early to tell.

    You thing a Farage Farrago would be less incompetent?

    How did that work out in County Councils?
    Far too early to tell.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,941
    edited September 9
    Good morning

    Andy Burnham on Sky promoting Lucy Powell, and for others to come forward, but he wants a backbencher like Lucy

    He is clearly on manoeuvres
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 13,897
    edited September 9
    Morning all.
    Counter Intuituve YouGov (or is it?) this week taken 7-8 Sept

    Ref 27 (-2)
    Lab 22 (+2)
    Con 17 (=)
    LD 15 (=)
    Grn 12 (+2)
    SNP 3 (=)
    Oth 3
  • MattWMattW Posts: 29,670
    MattW said:

    Taz said:

    Dopermean said:

    Guardian's list of runners in deputy leader race is a bit white and middle class. I can't see the members being happy, understandably as it suggests McSweeney has total control.

    Ribeiro-Addy is not white.
    And the Fab Four (Starmer, Lammy, Mahmood, Reeves) are already half and half.
    Looking at the Guardian list, Sarah Owen is of Chinese descent. Is she still standing?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 29,670
    Taz said:

    MattW said:

    scampi25 said:

    MattW said:

    TSE dethreaded me again. I must have said something about Yorkshire.

    Andy_JS said:

    rottenborough said:

    We have been warned:
    Zia Yusuf @ZiaYusufUK
    ·
    7h
    Reform will transform the civil service from a bloated, failed organisation hostile to the interests of the British people into a lean, performant machine that makes our country proud. 🇬🇧

    On the face of it, this doesn't sound like anything to be worried about. What do you see as problematic with it?
    This is obvious by now, surely? It's about 97% likely to be pure BS. Reform are an incompetent policy-free slogan machine, hoping that fools will fall for it. I doubt if they even know what they mean themselves by "Civil Service", never mind what it actually means.

    We have this exact cycle from Zia himself in Kent County Council. Lots of "we will save X Y and Z". But LTNs to be cut did not exist. Woke waste to be cut did not exist. "DEI jobs" hardly existed.

    It was all public information, but the numpties of Reform, including Zia himself, did not do any homework. So then he rifled through last year's local papers and social media, to find some identified savings he could claim to have "identified". And made a serious of fake claims about it. Cue a public faceplant.

    So what happens next? Well, in Derbyshire they cut half the adult education centres. They had time for a proper process, but waited until the last minute and tried to do an emergency decision.

    But RefUK are such a fuckwit collective that they had to admit their action was unlawful.

    Vote for a clown show, and you get a circus. I don't want a circus in my Council or Government.
    Haha - you think the last or the current government are competent?
    The last one - incompetent. The current one - too early to tell.

    You thing a Farage Farrago would be less incompetent?

    How did that work out in County Councils?
    Far too early to tell.
    Hmmmm.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,950
    @nicholson_kate1

    Excl: Rosena Allin-Khan out of Labour's deputy leadership race as "field too crowded", a source says. She would rather not split the vote and instead get MPs to rally around one candidate
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,950
    Nigelb said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    As someone points out on that Twitter link, the date of 2027 is interesting because it's before the end of the Trump era. Perhaps Farage and Trump are hoping to be pals in office.

    There is a non-zero chance the Trump era ends before 2027

    There is an even greater chance that if Trump is still in office, being his pal will be toxic for a majority of voters
    Perhaps Lucky is thinking about a third term Trump ?
    I think death or impeachment is more likely than a 3rd term, but then I am an optimist...
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 13,897
    Scott_xP said:

    @nicholson_kate1

    Excl: Rosena Allin-Khan out of Labour's deputy leadership race as "field too crowded", a source says. She would rather not split the vote and instead get MPs to rally around one candidate

    Also known as '80 is way bigger than i thought'
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,633
    edited September 9
    Dopermean said:

    Guardian's list of runners in deputy leader race is a bit white and middle class. I can't see the members being happy, understandably as it suggests McSweeney has total control.

    I am non white, perhaps I should become Labour's deputy leader?

    Nobody cares about class, people with class do not talk about class and well...

    I am running to be Deputy Leader of @UKLabour.

    As a proud working-class woman from the North East, I have come from a tough council street all the way to the Cabinet.

    I will be a strong voice to unite our Party, take the fight to Reform, and deliver for our country.

    https://x.com/bphillipsonMP/status/1965310226565095448
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,941
    Sky highlighting Mandelson revelation re Epstein this morning
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 34,053
    StillWaters said:

    Cicero said:

    These Boris leaks in The Guardian today look absolutely toxic. The implication is that Johnson was personally corrupt and enriched himself while in public office. If that story sticks, it's not just the ministerial code that has been breached, but the law. Let's see if the story has wings, but the optics are appalling.

    It’s toxic but for another reasons

    The accusations are marginal.

    They are (from the article)

    1. He asked a Saudi official to give a pitch to MbS
    2. He was paid a fee by a hedge fund after meeting Venezuela’s PM
    3. While in government he met Peter Thiel
    4. He hosted an event in Downing Street that seems like it was in breach of lockdown rules and was to “honour” the person that refurbished the flat
    5. He earned £5m from making speeches

    And in the intro they talk about Greensill (which was genuinely appalling) and complain that he is “publicly subsidised” for claiming the allowance the state pays for office support.

    The only ones that might possibly be open to criticism *for the accusation that the Guardian is making* (3&4 could easily be criticised for other things) are 1&2.

    Basically they are trying to throw chaff in the air to diminish the damage to Labour caused by Rayner

    This sort of journalism is irresponsible and toxic to public trust (such as it is) in politicians.

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2025/sep/08/revealed-how-boris-johnson-traded-pm-contacts-for-global-business-deals
    This has nothing to do with a tit-for-tat retaliation over Rayner.

    It is completely remarkable that those who cheered Rayner's defenestration are defending this as either lies or "Boris will be Boris". Will the broadcast media take any of this up? No.

    I still believe the most egregious act by any post war Minister, Profumo included, was a Foreign Secretary throwing off his minders to attend a party run by a KGB grandee. A story which at the time it occurred barely raised an eyebrow.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,633
    Mexicanpete said:

    StillWaters said:

    Cicero said:

    These Boris leaks in The Guardian today look absolutely toxic. The implication is that Johnson was personally corrupt and enriched himself while in public office. If that story sticks, it's not just the ministerial code that has been breached, but the law. Let's see if the story has wings, but the optics are appalling.

    It’s toxic but for another reasons

    The accusations are marginal.

    They are (from the article)

    1. He asked a Saudi official to give a pitch to MbS
    2. He was paid a fee by a hedge fund after meeting Venezuela’s PM
    3. While in government he met Peter Thiel
    4. He hosted an event in Downing Street that seems like it was in breach of lockdown rules and was to “honour” the person that refurbished the flat
    5. He earned £5m from making speeches

    And in the intro they talk about Greensill (which was genuinely appalling) and complain that he is “publicly subsidised” for claiming the allowance the state pays for office support.

    The only ones that might possibly be open to criticism *for the accusation that the Guardian is making* (3&4 could easily be criticised for other things) are 1&2.

    Basically they are trying to throw chaff in the air to diminish the damage to Labour caused by Rayner

    This sort of journalism is irresponsible and toxic to public trust (such as it is) in politicians.

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2025/sep/08/revealed-how-boris-johnson-traded-pm-contacts-for-global-business-deals
    This has nothing to do with a tit-for-tat retaliation over Rayner.

    It is completely remarkable that those who cheered Rayner's defenestration are defending this as either lies or "Boris will be Boris". Will the broadcast media take any of this up? No.

    I still believe the most egregious act by any post war Minister, Profumo included, was a Foreign Secretary throwing off his minders to attend a party run by a KGB grandee. A story which at the time it occurred barely raised an eyebrow.
    If only Farage or Boris had a curry...
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,941
    edited September 9
    Mexicanpete said:

    StillWaters said:

    Cicero said:

    These Boris leaks in The Guardian today look absolutely toxic. The implication is that Johnson was personally corrupt and enriched himself while in public office. If that story sticks, it's not just the ministerial code that has been breached, but the law. Let's see if the story has wings, but the optics are appalling.

    It’s toxic but for another reasons

    The accusations are marginal.

    They are (from the article)

    1. He asked a Saudi official to give a pitch to MbS
    2. He was paid a fee by a hedge fund after meeting Venezuela’s PM
    3. While in government he met Peter Thiel
    4. He hosted an event in Downing Street that seems like it was in breach of lockdown rules and was to “honour” the person that refurbished the flat
    5. He earned £5m from making speeches

    And in the intro they talk about Greensill (which was genuinely appalling) and complain that he is “publicly subsidised” for claiming the allowance the state pays for office support.

    The only ones that might possibly be open to criticism *for the accusation that the Guardian is making* (3&4 could easily be criticised for other things) are 1&2.

    Basically they are trying to throw chaff in the air to diminish the damage to Labour caused by Rayner

    This sort of journalism is irresponsible and toxic to public trust (such as it is) in politicians.

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2025/sep/08/revealed-how-boris-johnson-traded-pm-contacts-for-global-business-deals
    This has nothing to do with a tit-for-tat retaliation over Rayner.

    It is completely remarkable that those who cheered Rayner's defenestration are defending this as either lies or "Boris will be Boris". Will the broadcast media take any of this up? No.

    I still believe the most egregious act by any post war Minister, Profumo included, was a Foreign Secretary throwing off his minders to attend a party run by a KGB grandee. A story which at the time it occurred barely raised an eyebrow.
    Good to see you read my posts and in the public's perception it will be Boris being Boris even if this irritates you

  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,950
    Mexicanpete said:

    I still believe the most egregious act by any post war Minister, Profumo included, was a Foreign Secretary throwing off his minders to attend a party run by a KGB grandee. A story which at the time it occurred barely raised an eyebrow.

    Future generations will wonder at that.

    c.f. Trump

    @mehdirhasan

    Today it was confirmed that the president told the world's most infamous pedophile and child sex trafficker: "We have certain things in common."

    For any other president, it would be the biggest scandal of their lives, possibly career-ending.

    For Trump, it's just Monday.

    https://x.com/mehdirhasan/status/1965168703357792523

    Why are some people hounded out of office and some given a free pass (and why are they always 'rich' white men) ?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,844
    wooliedyed said:

    Morning all.
    Counter Intuituve YouGov (or is it?) this week taken 7-8 Sept

    Ref 27 (-2)
    Lab 22 (+2)
    Con 17 (=)
    LD 15 (=)
    Grn 12 (+2)
    SNP 3 (=)
    Oth 3

    Racist frothers on the slide
  • RogerRoger Posts: 21,006
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Sky highlighting Mandelson revelation re Epstein this morning

    I don't want to be seen giving Starmer tips but if he wants his new administraion to smell like something sparkling fresh sacking Mandelson should be high on the list
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 6,614
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    StillWaters said:

    Cicero said:

    These Boris leaks in The Guardian today look absolutely toxic. The implication is that Johnson was personally corrupt and enriched himself while in public office. If that story sticks, it's not just the ministerial code that has been breached, but the law. Let's see if the story has wings, but the optics are appalling.

    It’s toxic but for another reasons

    The accusations are marginal.

    They are (from the article)

    1. He asked a Saudi official to give a pitch to MbS
    2. He was paid a fee by a hedge fund after meeting Venezuela’s PM
    3. While in government he met Peter Thiel
    4. He hosted an event in Downing Street that seems like it was in breach of lockdown rules and was to “honour” the person that refurbished the flat
    5. He earned £5m from making speeches

    And in the intro they talk about Greensill (which was genuinely appalling) and complain that he is “publicly subsidised” for claiming the allowance the state pays for office support.

    The only ones that might possibly be open to criticism *for the accusation that the Guardian is making* (3&4 could easily be criticised for other things) are 1&2.

    Basically they are trying to throw chaff in the air to diminish the damage to Labour caused by Rayner

    This sort of journalism is irresponsible and toxic to public trust (such as it is) in politicians.

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2025/sep/08/revealed-how-boris-johnson-traded-pm-contacts-for-global-business-deals
    This has nothing to do with a tit-for-tat retaliation over Rayner.

    It is completely remarkable that those who cheered Rayner's defenestration are defending this as either lies or "Boris will be Boris". Will the broadcast media take any of this up? No.

    I still believe the most egregious act by any post war Minister, Profumo included, was a Foreign Secretary throwing off his minders to attend a party run by a KGB grandee. A story which at the time it occurred barely raised an eyebrow.
    If only Farage or Boris had a curry...
    So long as it was a crucial campaign curry like Keir’s
  • MattWMattW Posts: 29,670
    FPT:
    MattW said:

    IanB2 said:

    Kent news: A Reform UK county councillor serving Thanet has defected to UKIP. A statement from Reform UK headquarters confirmed Cllr Amelia Randall had left the party with their good wishes.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cly67nddy12o
    Is this the only UKIP councillor at District or County level?
  • eekeek Posts: 31,189
    edited September 9
    Roger said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Sky highlighting Mandelson revelation re Epstein this morning

    I don't want to be seen giving Starmer tips but if he wants his new administraion to smell like something sparkling fresh sacking Mandelson should be high on the list
    Mandelson and Trump now have something to moan about to each other - given that Peter’s job is to keep us in Trump’s good books I can’t see Peter going anywhere
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 45,382
    edited September 9
    Flatlander said:

    MaxPB said:

    StillWaters said:

    Andy_JS said:

    rottenborough said:

    We have been warned:


    Zia Yusuf

    @ZiaYusufUK
    ·
    7h
    Reform will transform the civil service from a bloated, failed organisation hostile to the interests of the British people into a lean, performant machine that makes our country proud. 🇬🇧

    On the face of it, this doesn't sound like anything to be worried about. What do you see as problematic with it?
    The risk is the criteria will involve a politicisation of the civil service
    Honestly it can't be worse than what we have today.

    For example, my dad is executor for his best friend's will, he died a year or so ago. The estate value was barely over the IHT limit, the tax is all paid and yet a year later the probate office is still in jobsworth mode asking for the original will, even though multiple copies have been provided, they had the original previously and have sent it back but for whatever reason they need it again.

    This is a tiny, tiny bit of officialdom needed for a nothing size estate where the tax has already all been paid and yet the probate office, the state, is making nonsense paperwork and hassle for my dad as executor and the beneficiaries who still can't close the book on the death of their father.

    In what world is this a good job? How have the civil servants in the probate office helped anyone with their nonsense bureaucracy in this instance? Who benefits from them not just getting it done, there isn't going to be some mad revelation which means the estate will suddenly be worth 10x more and loads of tax will be payable. It's this kind of shit that's causing the nation to slow down, these useless bureaucrats sticking their noses in to justify their jobs and pensions and making life miserable for ordinary people.

    Get rid of them all I say, 50% cuts in the bureaucracy and stop interfering in people's lives.
    As I mentioned a couple of weeks back I'm going through this as executor for my own father. I expect to encounter much state stupidity along the way, including I am told a wait of 16 weeks from submission to probate being granted.

    Today I've had a letter from the DWP. It says "yes, we owe the estate some money, please tell us where to send it along with a probate letter".

    Except nowhere in the letter does it state a how much they owe. A number which I need in order to obtain said probate.

    So, I will have to ring them up, and ask them to send another letter. At which point they will no doubt demand several reams of paperwork to prove I am permitted to see said value. Why not just send everything needed the first time? Even Yorkshire Water, yes, Yorkshire Water managed that.

    I can of course calculate it roughly myself - approximately 1 week of state pension, a trivial amount in the grand scheme of things - but HMRC will want the exact figure in writing so that they can claim their 40%.

    Ho hum. At least I'm not paying for a solicitor to chase this up (yet).

    Is it any wonder I'm thinking of giving enough away to stop the government getting a penny?
    FPT but from my experience it is perfectly acceptable to use estimated figures for the probate if you are held up on stuff, especially chickenfeed stuff, like this. Thje figures have to be stated as explicitly estimated. This is a godsend with stuff that is dragging on, especially small stuff. But do check the instructions on your probate paperwork (different for Scotland IIRC).

    Plus stuff crops up even months or years after probate. Some is completely unexpected. E.g. my late mother had bought shares in the RBS flotation that caused all the trouble, and was paid compo years after her demise; she had life assurance policies on my dad's life which didn't pay out till he died a decade later; and it turned out that one life assurance company had underpaid by 14K, and so on - I only found out when it occurred to me when doing the final wrap up that the rate of return was suspiciously low ... so I didn't finally settle her estate (I think!) for 10 years after probate.

    The main thing, as I understand it, is that HMRC get a sufficiently detailed probate valuation up front to assess whether IHT is liable or not and, if so, to get their chunk before anyone else does.

    If there is no IHT payable, it's up to the executor to tell them if enough dosh comes in later to change the figures upward enough to hit the magic IHT level.

    If IHT turns out to have been overpaid - usually if a house sells for less than the probate valuation - then you can claim the overpaid IHT back.

    Edit: I forget HMRC's wording when they accept the proibate, but they basically say"okay, you've signed this, and that's done, but you have to let us know if anything happens to change the levels of tax due"

  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 34,053
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    StillWaters said:

    Cicero said:

    These Boris leaks in The Guardian today look absolutely toxic. The implication is that Johnson was personally corrupt and enriched himself while in public office. If that story sticks, it's not just the ministerial code that has been breached, but the law. Let's see if the story has wings, but the optics are appalling.

    It’s toxic but for another reasons

    The accusations are marginal.

    They are (from the article)

    1. He asked a Saudi official to give a pitch to MbS
    2. He was paid a fee by a hedge fund after meeting Venezuela’s PM
    3. While in government he met Peter Thiel
    4. He hosted an event in Downing Street that seems like it was in breach of lockdown rules and was to “honour” the person that refurbished the flat
    5. He earned £5m from making speeches

    And in the intro they talk about Greensill (which was genuinely appalling) and complain that he is “publicly subsidised” for claiming the allowance the state pays for office support.

    The only ones that might possibly be open to criticism *for the accusation that the Guardian is making* (3&4 could easily be criticised for other things) are 1&2.

    Basically they are trying to throw chaff in the air to diminish the damage to Labour caused by Rayner

    This sort of journalism is irresponsible and toxic to public trust (such as it is) in politicians.

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2025/sep/08/revealed-how-boris-johnson-traded-pm-contacts-for-global-business-deals
    This has nothing to do with a tit-for-tat retaliation over Rayner.

    It is completely remarkable that those who cheered Rayner's defenestration are defending this as either lies or "Boris will be Boris". Will the broadcast media take any of this up? No.

    I still believe the most egregious act by any post war Minister, Profumo included, was a Foreign Secretary throwing off his minders to attend a party run by a KGB grandee. A story which at the time it occurred barely raised an eyebrow.
    Good to see you read my posts and in the public's perception it will be Boris being Boris even if this irritates you

    It wasn't just you BigG. There were about half a dozen defenders of the great man.

    i suspect you're right and the defence is one of "Boris will be Boris".

    It would be interesting what the Daily Telegraph would have made if as Foreign Secretary Lammy had been found tired, emotional and prostrate on a Lombardy railway station bench.
  • StereodogStereodog Posts: 1,145
    Scott_xP said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    I still believe the most egregious act by any post war Minister, Profumo included, was a Foreign Secretary throwing off his minders to attend a party run by a KGB grandee. A story which at the time it occurred barely raised an eyebrow.

    Future generations will wonder at that.

    c.f. Trump

    @mehdirhasan

    Today it was confirmed that the president told the world's most infamous pedophile and child sex trafficker: "We have certain things in common."

    For any other president, it would be the biggest scandal of their lives, possibly career-ending.

    For Trump, it's just Monday.

    https://x.com/mehdirhasan/status/1965168703357792523

    Why are some people hounded out of office and some given a free pass (and why are they always 'rich' white men) ?
    Trump hasn't exactly been given a free pass. His many many scandals have been reported in minute detail. It's a bit like being bitten by snakes so many times that you become impervious to venom. If you're the kind of person who has so little sense of shame or decency then it is sometimes possible to get to the stage where no new scandal changes anyone's perception of you
  • isamisam Posts: 42,531
    edited September 9
    Interesting that Rayner’s defenders constantly refer to her as a ‘working class’ woman. I have always thought that one’s class stayed with them for life, but been shouted down on here and told that, once you have middle class money/lifestyle, you could no longer claim it.

    Why is she any more working class than Keir Starmer, if we believe his claims about his childhood?
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 6,173
    Gallowgate said:

    wooliedyed said:

    Morning all.
    Counter Intuituve YouGov (or is it?) this week taken 7-8 Sept

    Ref 27 (-2)
    Lab 22 (+2)
    Con 17 (=)
    LD 15 (=)
    Grn 12 (+2)
    SNP 3 (=)
    Oth 3

    Racist frothers on the slide
    Thoughts and prayers for Chris Mason !
  • RogerRoger Posts: 21,006
    wooliedyed said:

    Morning all.
    Counter Intuituve YouGov (or is it?) this week taken 7-8 Sept

    Ref 27 (-2)
    Lab 22 (+2)
    Con 17 (=)
    LD 15 (=)
    Grn 12 (+2)
    SNP 3 (=)
    Oth 3

    I'm not the best judge but Farage seems to have made more unforced errors in the last week than we've seen for a while. By the same token Starmer has appeared by sleight of hand to have done a lazarus....
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,186
    wooliedyed said:

    Morning all.
    Counter Intuituve YouGov (or is it?) this week taken 7-8 Sept

    Ref 27 (-2)
    Lab 22 (+2)
    Con 17 (=)
    LD 15 (=)
    Grn 12 (+2)
    SNP 3 (=)
    Oth 3

    Rayner resignation bounce? :lol:
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,941
    Carnyx said:

    Flatlander said:

    MaxPB said:

    StillWaters said:

    Andy_JS said:

    rottenborough said:

    We have been warned:


    Zia Yusuf

    @ZiaYusufUK
    ·
    7h
    Reform will transform the civil service from a bloated, failed organisation hostile to the interests of the British people into a lean, performant machine that makes our country proud. 🇬🇧

    On the face of it, this doesn't sound like anything to be worried about. What do you see as problematic with it?
    The risk is the criteria will involve a politicisation of the civil service
    Honestly it can't be worse than what we have today.

    For example, my dad is executor for his best friend's will, he died a year or so ago. The estate value was barely over the IHT limit, the tax is all paid and yet a year later the probate office is still in jobsworth mode asking for the original will, even though multiple copies have been provided, they had the original previously and have sent it back but for whatever reason they need it again.

    This is a tiny, tiny bit of officialdom needed for a nothing size estate where the tax has already all been paid and yet the probate office, the state, is making nonsense paperwork and hassle for my dad as executor and the beneficiaries who still can't close the book on the death of their father.

    In what world is this a good job? How have the civil servants in the probate office helped anyone with their nonsense bureaucracy in this instance? Who benefits from them not just getting it done, there isn't going to be some mad revelation which means the estate will suddenly be worth 10x more and loads of tax will be payable. It's this kind of shit that's causing the nation to slow down, these useless bureaucrats sticking their noses in to justify their jobs and pensions and making life miserable for ordinary people.

    Get rid of them all I say, 50% cuts in the bureaucracy and stop interfering in people's lives.
    As I mentioned a couple of weeks back I'm going through this as executor for my own father. I expect to encounter much state stupidity along the way, including I am told a wait of 16 weeks from submission to probate being granted.

    Today I've had a letter from the DWP. It says "yes, we owe the estate some money, please tell us where to send it along with a probate letter".

    Except nowhere in the letter does it state a how much they owe. A number which I need in order to obtain said probate.

    So, I will have to ring them up, and ask them to send another letter. At which point they will no doubt demand several reams of paperwork to prove I am permitted to see said value. Why not just send everything needed the first time? Even Yorkshire Water, yes, Yorkshire Water managed that.

    I can of course calculate it roughly myself - approximately 1 week of state pension, a trivial amount in the grand scheme of things - but HMRC will want the exact figure in writing so that they can claim their 40%.

    Ho hum. At least I'm not paying for a solicitor to chase this up (yet).

    Is it any wonder I'm thinking of giving enough away to stop the government getting a penny?
    FPT but from my experience it is perfectly acceptable to use estimated figures for the probate if you are held up on stuff, especially chickenfeed stuff, like this. Thje figures have to be stated as explicit. This is a godsend with stuff that is dragging on, especially small stuff. But do check the instructions on your probate paperwork (different for Scotland IIRC).

    Plus stuff crops up even months or years after probate. Some is completely unexpected. E.g. my late mother had bought shares in the RBS flotation that caused all the trouble, and was paid compo years after her demise; she had life assurance policies on my dad's life which didn't pay out till he died a decade later; and it turned out that one life assurance company had underpaid by 14K, and so on - I only found out when it occurred to me when doing the final wrap up that the rate of return was suspiciously low ... so I didn't finally settle her estate (I think!) for 10 years after probate.

    The main thing, as I understand it, is that HMRC get a sufficiently detailed probate valuation up front to assess whether IHT is liable or not and, if so, to get their chunk before anyone else does.

    If there is no IHT payable, it's up to the executor to tell them if enough dosh comes in later to change the figures upward enough to hit the magic IHT level.

    If IHT turns out to have been overpaid - usually if a house sells for less than the probate valuation - then you can claim the overpaid IHT back.

    Our son in law's father's probate took nearly one year [2024]
  • CookieCookie Posts: 15,982
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Dopermean said:

    Guardian's list of runners in deputy leader race is a bit white and middle class. I can't see the members being happy, understandably as it suggests McSweeney has total control.

    I am non white, perhaps I should become Labour's deputy leader?

    Nobody cares about class, people with class do not talk about class and well...

    I am running to be Deputy Leader of @UKLabour.

    As a proud working-class woman from the North East, I have come from a tough council street all the way to the Cabinet.

    I will be a strong voice to unite our Party, take the fight to Reform, and deliver for our country.

    https://x.com/bphillipsonMP/status/1965310226565095448
    A 'council street' isn't really a thing. All streets are council streets (except unadopted ones). Does she mean a council estate? The implication is that some of her neighbours lived in council houses but she didn't.
  • StereodogStereodog Posts: 1,145
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Dopermean said:

    Guardian's list of runners in deputy leader race is a bit white and middle class. I can't see the members being happy, understandably as it suggests McSweeney has total control.

    I am non white, perhaps I should become Labour's deputy leader?

    Nobody cares about class, people with class do not talk about class and well...

    I am running to be Deputy Leader of @UKLabour.

    As a proud working-class woman from the North East, I have come from a tough council street all the way to the Cabinet.

    I will be a strong voice to unite our Party, take the fight to Reform, and deliver for our country.

    https://x.com/bphillipsonMP/status/1965310226565095448
    Talking about class is just reflexive in the Labour Party like a little secret language. It's like how the only people who will ever talk to you about dialectics are Marxists. Or from across the political spectrum how the far right can't talk about male asylum seekers without saying "Fighting age men".
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 9,054
    wooliedyed said:

    Morning all.
    Counter Intuituve YouGov (or is it?) this week taken 7-8 Sept

    Ref 27 (-2)
    Lab 22 (+2)
    Con 17 (=)
    LD 15 (=)
    Grn 12 (+2)
    SNP 3 (=)
    Oth 3

    Early days and probably just an outlier, but I did speculate a couple of days ago that the glitzy Reform conference, and in particular the platforming of Lucy Connolly and Aseem Malhotra, might turn off a few of the less rabid Reform supporters.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 45,382
    Cookie said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Dopermean said:

    Guardian's list of runners in deputy leader race is a bit white and middle class. I can't see the members being happy, understandably as it suggests McSweeney has total control.

    I am non white, perhaps I should become Labour's deputy leader?

    Nobody cares about class, people with class do not talk about class and well...

    I am running to be Deputy Leader of @UKLabour.

    As a proud working-class woman from the North East, I have come from a tough council street all the way to the Cabinet.

    I will be a strong voice to unite our Party, take the fight to Reform, and deliver for our country.

    https://x.com/bphillipsonMP/status/1965310226565095448
    A 'council street' isn't really a thing. All streets are council streets (except unadopted ones). Does she mean a council estate? The implication is that some of her neighbours lived in council houses but she didn't.
    Plus: how old is the lady, I instantly wonder? Council streets or estates started going rather holey when Mrs T brouight in the right to buy.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 34,053
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Sky highlighting Mandelson revelation re Epstein this morning

    A very good "look squirrel!" In the light of the Johnson revelation.

    I am not sure what the Mandelson revelation tells us other than he was involved with some pretty rum people like Epstein, Maxwell and Trump.

    I could be wrong, but I don't believe Epstein was procuring young women for Mandy.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 6,173
    Roger said:

    wooliedyed said:

    Morning all.
    Counter Intuituve YouGov (or is it?) this week taken 7-8 Sept

    Ref 27 (-2)
    Lab 22 (+2)
    Con 17 (=)
    LD 15 (=)
    Grn 12 (+2)
    SNP 3 (=)
    Oth 3

    I'm not the best judge but Farage seems to have made more unforced errors in the last week than we've seen for a while. By the same token Starmer has appeared by sleight of hand to have done a lazarus....
    Anytime Farage comes under any scrutiny the wheels fall off . I’m sure a code red emergency has reached the BBC and we’ll get a few puff pieces to help right the ship .
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,941
    Roger said:

    wooliedyed said:

    Morning all.
    Counter Intuituve YouGov (or is it?) this week taken 7-8 Sept

    Ref 27 (-2)
    Lab 22 (+2)
    Con 17 (=)
    LD 15 (=)
    Grn 12 (+2)
    SNP 3 (=)
    Oth 3

    I'm not the best judge but Farage seems to have made more unforced errors in the last week than we've seen for a while. By the same token Starmer has appeared by sleight of hand to have done a lazarus....
    Not often we agree but Farage's conference highlighting Lucy Connolly, Nadine Dorries, sending women back to Afghanistan, and giving the stage to an anti vaxer will not be attractive to a large number of voters

    Starmer has taken advantage of Raynergate, and is clearly moving towards the centre with policy changes likely on workers rights, benefits, channel crossings, and even in trying to sideline Miliband, climate change

    His problem is now more likely behind him than Farage and Reform
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 45,382
    nico67 said:

    Roger said:

    wooliedyed said:

    Morning all.
    Counter Intuituve YouGov (or is it?) this week taken 7-8 Sept

    Ref 27 (-2)
    Lab 22 (+2)
    Con 17 (=)
    LD 15 (=)
    Grn 12 (+2)
    SNP 3 (=)
    Oth 3

    I'm not the best judge but Farage seems to have made more unforced errors in the last week than we've seen for a while. By the same token Starmer has appeared by sleight of hand to have done a lazarus....
    Anytime Farage comes under any scrutiny the wheels fall off . I’m sure a code red emergency has reached the BBC and we’ll get a few puff pieces to help right the ship .
    I had to look twice at that when I saw the apparently mixed metaphor. But on reflection something like this is very useful on those beaches.

    https://www.antarctica.gov.au/antarctic-operations/travel-and-logistics/small-watercraft/larc/
  • BattlebusBattlebus Posts: 1,453
    Good morning from Portugal where Euronews is reporting that Germany has lost its top spot for asylum claims. It’s behind France and Spain but all three are looking at nearly 80K per year.

    Also had a pleasant afternoon chatting to a US couple from Texas who have departed/fled the US by using the property purchase/ eventual residency route which takes up to five years.

    So it appears you’re not an immigrant if you are able to purchase property. So would more people be welcome to the UK if they helped prop up the property market?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,941
    Mexicanpete said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Sky highlighting Mandelson revelation re Epstein this morning

    A very good "look squirrel!" In the light of the Johnson revelation.

    I am not sure what the Mandelson revelation tells us other than he was involved with some pretty rum people like Epstein, Maxwell and Trump.

    I could be wrong, but I don't believe Epstein was procuring young women for Mandy.
    Re your last sentence I have no idea or comment, but todays release of 50th birthday cards including Trump, Mandelson, and Clinton shows just how extensive his circle was and across politics
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 6,173
    Bridget Phillipson better be careful .

    The right wing media will be going into overdrive . Rumours are that she once ordered smashed avocado on toast and was seen buying Waitrose artichoke hearts !
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,941
    nico67 said:

    Bridget Phillipson better be careful .

    The right wing media will be going into overdrive . Rumours are that she once ordered smashed avocado on toast and was seen buying Waitrose artichoke hearts !

    Andy Burnham on Sky was promoting Lucy Powell and seeking a back bencher

    Obviously not at all impressed by Phillipson so the problem is within labour ranks
  • TimSTimS Posts: 16,031
    The YG poll is both intriguing and frustrating.

    Are greens really on 12%? They’ve had a bit of news coverage because of Polanski. Perhaps the hard left vote is consolidating around them given the ongoing will they won’t they with Corbyn and Sultana.

    Why can’t the Lib Dems ever overtake the Tories, even just for one poll? We seem to move in concert with them between pollsters. Perhaps because both voter groups are now demographically similar?

    The difference between Reform on 27% and Reform on 33% is vast in terms of FPTP seats. What is YG doing in its sampling that’s so different from so many others?
  • eekeek Posts: 31,189
    Isn’t the whole point of saying there will be a 2027 election is to allow Farage to complain about the lack of it throughout 2027/28 and keep his supporters annoyed and not thinking rationally
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,941
    eek said:

    Isn’t the whole point of saying there will be a 2027 election is to allow Farage to complain about the lack of it throughout 2027/28 and keep his supporters annoyed and not thinking rationally

    I do not think his supporters think rationally anyway !!!!
  • TimSTimS Posts: 16,031
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Sky highlighting Mandelson revelation re Epstein this morning

    A very good "look squirrel!" In the light of the Johnson revelation.

    I am not sure what the Mandelson revelation tells us other than he was involved with some pretty rum people like Epstein, Maxwell and Trump.

    I could be wrong, but I don't believe Epstein was procuring young women for Mandy.
    Re your last sentence I have no idea or comment, but todays release of 50th birthday cards including Trump, Mandelson, and Clinton shows just how extensive his circle was and across politics
    Though only one of them designed a card to make his signature a fanny.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 13,897
    Northern_Al said:

    wooliedyed said:

    Morning all.
    Counter Intuituve YouGov (or is it?) this week taken 7-8 Sept

    Ref 27 (-2)
    Lab 22 (+2)
    Con 17 (=)
    LD 15 (=)
    Grn 12 (+2)
    SNP 3 (=)
    Oth 3

    Early days and probably just an outlier, but I did speculate a couple of days ago that the glitzy Reform conference, and in particular the platforming of Lucy Connolly and Aseem Malhotra, might turn off a few of the less rabid Reform supporters.
    Probably just noise. A bit like the Tory 'mini bounce' a while back. All figures within the recent bounds but as ever worth keeping an eye on (MiC tomorrow, FoN Thursday)
    Green bounce might be 'real' given the Polanski airtime and victory.
    26 is the lowest Reform have recorded with anyone since the May takeoff and their now 102 poll lead streak, if they breach that then it would be more of a 'hmmmmmm' moment
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 45,053
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Roger said:

    wooliedyed said:

    Morning all.
    Counter Intuituve YouGov (or is it?) this week taken 7-8 Sept

    Ref 27 (-2)
    Lab 22 (+2)
    Con 17 (=)
    LD 15 (=)
    Grn 12 (+2)
    SNP 3 (=)
    Oth 3

    I'm not the best judge but Farage seems to have made more unforced errors in the last week than we've seen for a while. By the same token Starmer has appeared by sleight of hand to have done a lazarus....
    Not often we agree but Farage's conference highlighting Lucy Connolly, Nadine Dorries, sending women back to Afghanistan, and giving the stage to an anti vaxer will not be attractive to a large number of voters

    Starmer has taken advantage of Raynergate, and is clearly moving towards the centre with policy changes likely on workers rights, benefits, channel crossings, and even in trying to sideline Miliband, climate change

    His problem is now more likely behind him than Farage and Reform
    Not sure if Starmer can move any further to the centre, unless sitting on his are while the last phoney protestations of progressiveness wither into silence. Of course retreating from arsecrawling Trump, berating migrants and patting Israel on its head might count but he’s not going to do that.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,941
    TimS said:

    The YG poll is both intriguing and frustrating.

    Are greens really on 12%? They’ve had a bit of news coverage because of Polanski. Perhaps the hard left vote is consolidating around them given the ongoing will they won’t they with Corbyn and Sultana.

    Why can’t the Lib Dems ever overtake the Tories, even just for one poll? We seem to move in concert with them between pollsters. Perhaps because both voter groups are now demographically similar?

    The difference between Reform on 27% and Reform on 33% is vast in terms of FPTP seats. What is YG doing in its sampling that’s so different from so many others?

    As is often the case, especially after a few dramatic political days, more polls are needed to detect any change in the trend
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 6,173
    edited September 9
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    nico67 said:

    Bridget Phillipson better be careful .

    The right wing media will be going into overdrive . Rumours are that she once ordered smashed avocado on toast and was seen buying Waitrose artichoke hearts !

    Andy Burnham on Sky was promoting Lucy Powell and seeking a back bencher

    Obviously not at all impressed by Phillipson so the problem is within labour ranks
    No 10 would be wise to get behind someone who has a lower profile and not in the cabinet otherwise under a forced choice members might end up voting for someone who could cause them alot of trouble .
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,788
    isam said:

    Interesting that Rayner’s defenders constantly refer to her as a ‘working class’ woman. I have always thought that one’s class stayed with them for life, but been shouted down on here and told that, once you have middle class money/lifestyle, you could no longer claim it.

    Why is she any more working class than Keir Starmer, if we believe his claims about his childhood?

    Yes it's a funny one isn't it.

    I suspect its a) convenient to do down someone's working class credentials when we disagree with them b) somehow linked to accent...

    To my mind, the whole label is useless.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,633
    edited September 9
    TimS said:

    The YG poll is both intriguing and frustrating.

    Are greens really on 12%? They’ve had a bit of news coverage because of Polanski. Perhaps the hard left vote is consolidating around them given the ongoing will they won’t they with Corbyn and Sultana.

    Why can’t the Lib Dems ever overtake the Tories, even just for one poll? We seem to move in concert with them between pollsters. Perhaps because both voter groups are now demographically similar?

    The difference between Reform on 27% and Reform on 33% is vast in terms of FPTP seats. What is YG doing in its sampling that’s so different from so many others?

    I’ve not looked at this specific poll but in their recent polls they have a tendency to down weight 2024 non voters which is where a substantial chunk of Reform’s support comes from, other pollsters are a bit more generous.

    Before our low IQ posters smear YouGov this is a policy YouGov has followed since their founding in 2000 because outside of plebiscites non voters do not turn out to vote.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,925
    Roger said:

    wooliedyed said:

    Morning all.
    Counter Intuituve YouGov (or is it?) this week taken 7-8 Sept

    Ref 27 (-2)
    Lab 22 (+2)
    Con 17 (=)
    LD 15 (=)
    Grn 12 (+2)
    SNP 3 (=)
    Oth 3

    I'm not the best judge but Farage seems to have made more unforced errors in the last week than we've seen for a while. By the same token Starmer has appeared by sleight of hand to have done a lazarus....
    I suspect the deputy election will do him no favours, though.
    And might well present more than a short term problem.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,941
    nico67 said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    nico67 said:

    Bridget Phillipson better be careful .

    The right wing media will be going into overdrive . Rumours are that she once ordered smashed avocado on toast and was seen buying Waitrose artichoke hearts !

    Andy Burnham on Sky was promoting Lucy Powell and seeking a back bencher

    Obviously not at all impressed by Phillipson so the problem is within labour ranks
    No 10 would be wise to get behind someone who has a lower profile and not in the cabinet otherwise under a forced choice members might end voting for someone who could cause them alot of trouble .
    It is expected the cabinet will support Phillipson
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 13,897
    nico67 said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    nico67 said:

    Bridget Phillipson better be careful .

    The right wing media will be going into overdrive . Rumours are that she once ordered smashed avocado on toast and was seen buying Waitrose artichoke hearts !

    Andy Burnham on Sky was promoting Lucy Powell and seeking a back bencher

    Obviously not at all impressed by Phillipson so the problem is within labour ranks
    No 10 would be wise to get behind someone who has a lower profile and not in the cabinet otherwise under a forced choice they might end up with someone who could cause them alot of trouble .
    I'd lay phillipson against anyone tbh, she will be the Keir candidate and the party electorate will thus reject her
    I think he will end up with a backbencher deputy
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,950
    Stereodog said:

    Trump hasn't exactly been given a free pass. His many many scandals have been reported in minute detail.

    I don't think that's true
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,844
    nico67 said:

    Bridget Phillipson better be careful .

    The right wing media will be going into overdrive . Rumours are that she once ordered smashed avocado on toast and was seen buying Waitrose artichoke hearts !

    No Waitrose in Sunderland I am afraid
  • boulayboulay Posts: 7,217
    Battlebus said:

    Good morning from Portugal where Euronews is reporting that Germany has lost its top spot for asylum claims. It’s behind France and Spain but all three are looking at nearly 80K per year.

    Also had a pleasant afternoon chatting to a US couple from Texas who have departed/fled the US by using the property purchase/ eventual residency route which takes up to five years.

    So it appears you’re not an immigrant if you are able to purchase property. So would more people be welcome to the UK if they helped prop up the property market?

    I’m guessing this comment is supposed to be a bit arch and withering? Funnily enough I doubt most people would be upset about hundreds of thousands of immigrants coming to the UK if they passed the same sort of golden visa requirements that Texans to Portugal need to.

    If 500,000 people had come to the uk who had to buy property over a certain value rather than have the state house them in hotels, had to set up/move businesses or invest a minimum amount in the country to get their visa rather than the state providing money for food, healthcare etc then again, not sure people would be finding it a huge problem.

    The people who are in Portugal on the golden visas are also providing their documentation up front - who they are, where they are coming from, how they made their money, background and understanding rather than claiming to have no documentation and no proof of their good standing, qualifications, nationality, age.

    So a completely different situation.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 6,173
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    nico67 said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    nico67 said:

    Bridget Phillipson better be careful .

    The right wing media will be going into overdrive . Rumours are that she once ordered smashed avocado on toast and was seen buying Waitrose artichoke hearts !

    Andy Burnham on Sky was promoting Lucy Powell and seeking a back bencher

    Obviously not at all impressed by Phillipson so the problem is within labour ranks
    No 10 would be wise to get behind someone who has a lower profile and not in the cabinet otherwise under a forced choice members might end voting for someone who could cause them alot of trouble .
    It is expected the cabinet will support Phillipson
    Which means she’ll lose . Alison McGovern has a lower profile role in government and I think would do better with members .
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,941
    edited September 9
    I do not know the detail of how Labour's deputy leader is elected

    I assume it is the membership and unions but am sure somebody will provide the detail for me

    Thanks

  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 13,897
    TimS said:

    The YG poll is both intriguing and frustrating.

    Are greens really on 12%? They’ve had a bit of news coverage because of Polanski. Perhaps the hard left vote is consolidating around them given the ongoing will they won’t they with Corbyn and Sultana.

    Why can’t the Lib Dems ever overtake the Tories, even just for one poll? We seem to move in concert with them between pollsters. Perhaps because both voter groups are now demographically similar?

    The difference between Reform on 27% and Reform on 33% is vast in terms of FPTP seats. What is YG doing in its sampling that’s so different from so many others?

    Greens have been at 12% with YG before since May
    Re LD and Tories, there may be the odd outlier but the Tory floor and the LD ceiling right now appear to have a small gap between them that isnt getting breached - it 'tends' to be rather closer with YG than most of the others where the gap is middle single figures to high single figures (obviously there are occasional closer ones)
  • isamisam Posts: 42,531
    edited September 9
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TimS said:

    The YG poll is both intriguing and frustrating.

    Are greens really on 12%? They’ve had a bit of news coverage because of Polanski. Perhaps the hard left vote is consolidating around them given the ongoing will they won’t they with Corbyn and Sultana.

    Why can’t the Lib Dems ever overtake the Tories, even just for one poll? We seem to move in concert with them between pollsters. Perhaps because both voter groups are now demographically similar?

    The difference between Reform on 27% and Reform on 33% is vast in terms of FPTP seats. What is YG doing in its sampling that’s so different from so many others?

    I’ve not looked at this specific poll but in their recent polls they have a tendency to down weight 2024 non voters which is where a substantial chunk of Reform’s support comes from, other pollsters are a bit more generous.

    Before our low IQ posters smear YouGov this is a policy YouGov has followed since their founding in 2000 because outside of plebiscites non voters do not turn out to vote.
    GE 2024’s low turnout should be considered when factoring in non voters this time; a lot of 2019 Tories stayed at home and I’d expect the majority of them to be saying they’d vote refute now. I doubt they be habitual non voters

    If it’s a policy YG have followed since their foundation, there’s no need to look at this specific poll. We have the answer for YG finding lower Reform scores
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 10,605
    edited September 9
    Roger said:

    wooliedyed said:

    Morning all.
    Counter Intuituve YouGov (or is it?) this week taken 7-8 Sept

    Ref 27 (-2)
    Lab 22 (+2)
    Con 17 (=)
    LD 15 (=)
    Grn 12 (+2)
    SNP 3 (=)
    Oth 3

    I'm not the best judge but Farage seems to have made more unforced errors in the last week than we've seen for a while. By the same token Starmer has appeared by sleight of hand to have done a lazarus....
    Morning PB.

    The Trumpy glitz of the Reform conference style may not have gone down so well in small town England. I also wonder about some of the people they got on stage, there.

    Meanwhile Zack Polanski is getting a lot of attention.

    The visibility of Rayner may also have actually reminded some people of why they liked Labour before, despite the story being about her resignation.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 15,982
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    nico67 said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    nico67 said:

    Bridget Phillipson better be careful .

    The right wing media will be going into overdrive . Rumours are that she once ordered smashed avocado on toast and was seen buying Waitrose artichoke hearts !

    Andy Burnham on Sky was promoting Lucy Powell and seeking a back bencher

    Obviously not at all impressed by Phillipson so the problem is within labour ranks
    No 10 would be wise to get behind someone who has a lower profile and not in the cabinet otherwise under a forced choice members might end voting for someone who could cause them alot of trouble .
    It is expected the cabinet will support Phillipson
    Not that I am the electorate, and I acknowledge that this is a personal thing, but I have a particular issue with Phillipson: the amount of lipstick she wears. It's not just dislike or disapproval, it triggers my disgust mechanism.
    But as I say, this is just a personal issue, and it seems most other people seem to have no issue with women smearing brightly coloured muck on their mouths.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 19,707
    As a former Prime Minister declared,

    Nothing matters very much, and few things matter at all.

    The YouGov numbers are probably just a slightly noisy snapback from a slightly toppy poll last week. For all the press excitement, most ministerial resignations don't shift the polls, even a little bit.

    There might be some calming down now that the silly protest season is over, and a bit more visibility for normal parties now they are back from their holidays. But the big picture is what it has been for ages. Reform are doing well, maybe very well, but low thirties percent only wins against a split opposition. Labour are doing badly, but not terminally, and they remain in second place. And the Conservatives need some sort of jump start or obscurity beckons.

  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 30,587
    Cookie said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Dopermean said:

    Guardian's list of runners in deputy leader race is a bit white and middle class. I can't see the members being happy, understandably as it suggests McSweeney has total control.

    I am non white, perhaps I should become Labour's deputy leader?

    Nobody cares about class, people with class do not talk about class and well...

    I am running to be Deputy Leader of @UKLabour.

    As a proud working-class woman from the North East, I have come from a tough council street all the way to the Cabinet.

    I will be a strong voice to unite our Party, take the fight to Reform, and deliver for our country.

    https://x.com/bphillipsonMP/status/1965310226565095448
    A 'council street' isn't really a thing. All streets are council streets (except unadopted ones). Does she mean a council estate? The implication is that some of her neighbours lived in council houses but she didn't.
    Northumberland has one in each village.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,941
    Starmer apparently calling his party the 'Patriots' and Farage is a plastic Patriot

    Why does he continue to mimic Farage and the right ?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 21,006
    Cookie said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    nico67 said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    nico67 said:

    Bridget Phillipson better be careful .

    The right wing media will be going into overdrive . Rumours are that she once ordered smashed avocado on toast and was seen buying Waitrose artichoke hearts !

    Andy Burnham on Sky was promoting Lucy Powell and seeking a back bencher

    Obviously not at all impressed by Phillipson so the problem is within labour ranks
    No 10 would be wise to get behind someone who has a lower profile and not in the cabinet otherwise under a forced choice members might end voting for someone who could cause them alot of trouble .
    It is expected the cabinet will support Phillipson
    Not that I am the electorate, and I acknowledge that this is a personal thing, but I have a particular issue with Phillipson: the amount of lipstick she wears. It's not just dislike or disapproval, it triggers my disgust mechanism.
    But as I say, this is just a personal issue, and it seems most other people seem to have no issue with women smearing brightly coloured muck on their mouths.
    LOL!!
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 13,897
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Starmer apparently calling his party the 'Patriots' and Farage is a plastic Patriot

    Why does he continue to mimic Farage and the right ?

    Because he's a clueless twit?
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 15,412
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TimS said:

    The YG poll is both intriguing and frustrating.

    Are greens really on 12%? They’ve had a bit of news coverage because of Polanski. Perhaps the hard left vote is consolidating around them given the ongoing will they won’t they with Corbyn and Sultana.

    Why can’t the Lib Dems ever overtake the Tories, even just for one poll? We seem to move in concert with them between pollsters. Perhaps because both voter groups are now demographically similar?

    The difference between Reform on 27% and Reform on 33% is vast in terms of FPTP seats. What is YG doing in its sampling that’s so different from so many others?

    I’ve not looked at this specific poll but in their recent polls they have a tendency to down weight 2024 non voters which is where a substantial chunk of Reform’s support comes from, other pollsters are a bit more generous.

    Before our low IQ posters smear YouGov this is a policy YouGov has followed since their founding in 2000 because outside of plebiscites non voters do not turn out to vote.
    Yes. I am sure the raw data the pollsters are gathering are similar to each other. One of the characteristics of the future is that it contains unknowns and can be unlike the past. SFAICS the major differences between pollsters are about things which are, despite the long words, guesses about future behaviour.

    The key element of polling is what you do with the data once you have it. FWIW I think it is perfectly possible that the next election will be a proper 'W B Yeats' election; one in which:


    Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;......

    ......The best lack all conviction, while the worst
    Are full of passionate intensity.


    But equally possible is that the centre unites against the eccentricities of Reform.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,844
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Starmer apparently calling his party the 'Patriots' and Farage is a plastic Patriot

    Why does he continue to mimic Farage and the right ?

    Because he doesn’t want to give the right total ownership of the patriot vote. It’s pretty simple really.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 56,778
    wooliedyed said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Starmer apparently calling his party the 'Patriots' and Farage is a plastic Patriot

    Why does he continue to mimic Farage and the right ?

    Because he's a clueless twit?
    The more he spoke of his patriotism, the faster we counted the flags.
  • TazTaz Posts: 20,927
    MattW said:

    Taz said:

    MattW said:

    scampi25 said:

    MattW said:

    TSE dethreaded me again. I must have said something about Yorkshire.

    Andy_JS said:

    rottenborough said:

    We have been warned:
    Zia Yusuf @ZiaYusufUK
    ·
    7h
    Reform will transform the civil service from a bloated, failed organisation hostile to the interests of the British people into a lean, performant machine that makes our country proud. 🇬🇧

    On the face of it, this doesn't sound like anything to be worried about. What do you see as problematic with it?
    This is obvious by now, surely? It's about 97% likely to be pure BS. Reform are an incompetent policy-free slogan machine, hoping that fools will fall for it. I doubt if they even know what they mean themselves by "Civil Service", never mind what it actually means.

    We have this exact cycle from Zia himself in Kent County Council. Lots of "we will save X Y and Z". But LTNs to be cut did not exist. Woke waste to be cut did not exist. "DEI jobs" hardly existed.

    It was all public information, but the numpties of Reform, including Zia himself, did not do any homework. So then he rifled through last year's local papers and social media, to find some identified savings he could claim to have "identified". And made a serious of fake claims about it. Cue a public faceplant.

    So what happens next? Well, in Derbyshire they cut half the adult education centres. They had time for a proper process, but waited until the last minute and tried to do an emergency decision.

    But RefUK are such a fuckwit collective that they had to admit their action was unlawful.

    Vote for a clown show, and you get a circus. I don't want a circus in my Council or Government.
    Haha - you think the last or the current government are competent?
    The last one - incompetent. The current one - too early to tell.

    You thing a Farage Farrago would be less incompetent?

    How did that work out in County Councils?
    Far too early to tell.
    Hmmmm.
    Four months since the May elections.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 30,939
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Starmer apparently calling his party the 'Patriots' and Farage is a plastic Patriot

    Why does he continue to mimic Farage and the right ?

    Indeed. Instead "what is patriotic about flying our flag upside down - a sign of distress? What's patriotic about turning our flag into graffiti? What patriotic about emblazoning our flag onto patriotic football shirts for patriots Made in China? Patriotism is going to our friends and doing trade deals, not demanding they impose economic sanctions on our own people" etc
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